R.C. Fischer

FFM

21 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 15: Chiefs 34, Chargers 28

When I think of this game, what I’ll remember the most is…heading into the 4th-quarter it was 14-13 LAC leading, an offensive slog with Mahomes without a TD and the Chargers having failed about 100 times in goal-to-go situations – it all seemed FF-lost for the heavily-invested-in-KC/LAC-things FFM cult. What was I going to need to write going into the weekend to keep all our FF-spirits up?

There’s nothing worse, in my world, then a KC dud on TNF for everyone to bemoan for 72 hours until the next kickoff…using the hours to re-do their entire Fantasy Football plan from the August 2021 draft to their future business plan created for 2022, a plan to never include any Chiefs ever again because they all have been figured out or misused or whatever is thought in frustration watching the KC dullness happen with you own two eyes on a spotlight night game.

That’s Fantasy Football…we love all ‘the possibilities’ in our planning and the perfect storm re-do redrafts we imagine in our minds, but then watching the live action of our plans play out like we’re being taken to go in front of a firing squad. I wish we could more enjoy the beauty of the everchanging game we get to participate in…for ‘fun’. Maybe the fun is the torture of it all? It kinda seems to be that way, actually :)

We didn’t have to wait long for the beauty to arrive to save us from our torture rack, for those with the KC guys, as the final 10 minutes of regulation got us an offensive/FF explosion and the extra blessing of overtime/more football to add more to the tallies. Three quarters of a defensive struggle with 27 total points scored between the two teams and fullback Michael Burton as KC’s FF star of the night…to suddenly a twist to 35 points scored in about a quarter+ of play to the finish with the KC guys having some of their best game outputs of the season.

You have to love Fantasy Football when it goes like this on a Thursday night…love it at least for 72 hours, then you can go back to complaining about all the letdowns from the Sunday guys not being as good as your KC guys. It’s the nature of this FF-game…

What looked like LAC getting ready to take over the AFC West for now, and forever…slipped right through their hands and sent them reeling to the wild card chase. I absolutely 100% agree with every Brandon Staley call to go for TDs and not field goals throughout that game, when faced with the decision. You play for TDs when you face a team like KC for the very reason of what happened…KC can look stupid for three quarters and then blow your doors off in a 10-minute span.

To the media, or fans, who love to shout ‘analytics’ every time a team goes for a TD/1st-down on 4th-down instead of a field goal…please stop. You have no idea what you are talking about. You shouldn’t need a Harvard grad student with a MacBook Air to tell you that you need to score TDs not FGs against Patrick Mahomes (or any other elite offenses). It should be a given, but the media (and fans) are so conditioned to playing the game in an antiquated way we were raised…that they cannot handle such simple logic/strategy. And the fans are worse, because they live to watch their favorite team lose games and complain about how they would have done everything different in all the 50-50 choices…just like us FF owners do week-to-week.

You either play to win or you play not to lose…in the NFL…in Fantasy…in life. I like playing to win, knowing I might lose. I’m not putting my lifesavings on one hand of blackjack…I’m not saying we all be stupid risk takers – but I’m more thinking in the sense that (back in my heyday) I wanted the basketball in my hands down one with 5 seconds left in the game. Missing the game winning shot and then rehashing my entire reason for ever playing the game for the next 24 hours/week/month/year is not productive and doesn’t solve anything. I should be counting down the days until I get my next chance to do so again. We have to make those 50-50 calls for sit-starts every week with our Fantasy teams...we take our best shot and if we miss, we comeback next week on the attack again. Brandon Staley went for the kill, and he missed…the offense didn’t convert many golden opportunities. They will learn from this…they will build up scar tissue from this for the next time.

I assume there will be a next time. Staley’s young coaching career is at a crossroads from all the second-guessing this week he’s faced – will he chicken out the next time he’s in the same position, or will he establish that he will go for wins despite the media and fans crying? FYI, nothing you can do as an NFL head coach will stop the media and fans from complaining. As soon as you win a Super Bowl, the media and fans are already creating a top five list the next day on reasons why you won’t repeat.

The Chargers fall to (8-6) and are in a good spot still for the wild card. 10 wins should be an easy ticket to the playoffs, and LAC should get there…as LAC faces Houston this week (although after watching Week 15 kings Arizona and Tampa Bay go down to inferior teams…who knows?) and likely gets to wins…and then they need to win one of their last two hosting DEN or at LV. They can sweep the rest of the season, they’ll be favored to, but at a minimum they should get to 10 wins and the wild card.

The Chiefs won at just the right time, they are now (10-4)…the only 10 win team in the AFC, with their nearest competitors all losing this week (NE and TEN). KC is set to win at least 12 games and take the #1 seed.  

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- First off, I have to say ‘thank you’ to Patrick Mahomes (31-47 for 410 yards, 3 TDs/1 INT, 3-32-0) and Tyreek Hill (12-148-1/13) for helping get FFMers, many of whom have one or both, off to a great start for the FF week.

2021 has been the most erratic run with this duo in the years of having them together. Mahomes had fallen out of the top 5 PPG Fantasy scoring QBs this season with a real rough stretch for the last several weeks, and Tyreek was mostly with him in those FF-doldrums. But one of the reasons we push for those two guys for FF every year we can – they have more of ‘these’ types of games than any FF QB-WR duo over the past few years…weeks where they almost single handedly get an entire FF team over.

For three quarters, it didn’t look that way. For most of the last 5-6 games worth of ‘quarters’ it hasn’t looked very good. Something is still wrong here with the KC offense…I know it is because I’ve been so heavily vested in/observing it the past few years. But, with these guys you just shove the chips in and hope they kick into gear at this stage of the FF season. They did in the 4th-quarter here. Still not totally in the clear ahead, but there’s always hope that there is…and that’s all you can ask.

My apologies to…

a) The FF teams where I thought Kyler v. DET was more logical than Mahomes here. Some Dynasty teams have this duo/option and given the choice everything seemed obvious for Kyler…until Week 15 showed nothing in football is obvious.

if you thought Kyler was bad...check out Tom Brady's week.

b) Travis Kelce (10-191-2/13), of whom I told Ross Jacobs in-game that Kelce keeps looking old to me and he was really dying in this game, so I made fun of him (and Ross has him on a key FF team of his) but then the 4th-quarter magic hit, and Kelce took a swig from the fountain of youth and suddenly is out-running every player on the field. Glad I could reverse jinx him into 41+ PPR points.

…still, Kelce does look like age is catching up to him. Everything about Mahomes-Tyreek looks normal (physically) this year, just not connecting as well. But Kelce looks like he is slowing down…and that might be a part of Mahomes issue the past two months. But that old magic was there late this game…maybe it carries over the next few weeks.

 -- Justin Herbert (22-38 for 236 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT, 5-16-1) looked better than Mahomes most of this game, and he looks like the QB of the future between the two. If Jared Cook could catch, this game might have been a whole lot different on the perception we walk away with.

I think Herbert’s main issue is his offensive coordinator – he’s the one who has pushed Jared Cook (3-32-0/7) when Donald Parham (0-0-0/1) is a much better, more dangerous mismatch weapon in the passing game. The O-C’s the one who keeps calling for useless end zone fades and stupid goal line quick passes in traffic to Mike Williams that come in so hot he never catches them, then gets blown up by the defender going into the soup when he does, and the ball pops off his hands and into the air risking turnover…I’ve seen them run that play near the goal line probably 7-8 times this year, and I cannot recall one time it hitting for a TD…but they keep running it.

My vast football opinion: If they simply put Joshua Palmer (1-15-0/1) in the starting rotation with Keenan-Big Mike and then more Parham than Cook…this offense would be loaded with unique weapons. The Chargers are being suppressed from within…by the O-C. You wonder why LAC could fail so many times near the goal line…it’s not because Herbert isn’t an elite weapon. If anything cost LAC this game, this season…it’s the O-C Joe Lombardi. It’s so cool that he’s related to Vince Lombardi…who is probably rolling over in his grave at the dreadfulness of this offensive plan/attack.

You have to do some pretty good coaching to make a Justin Herbert-led offense stumble around so much and not get better as they go. *See, also: Eric Bieniemy, Kansas City (2020-2021).

 -- Speaking of Big Mike Williams (3-49-0/9)… In most cases, you just have to stick with him. He’s too good to bench. Flyers on like a Courtland Sutton type Flex shot are true long shot bets that the previously great WR can have a moment again…but it’s been so bad, and his QB so down that it’s a real uphill battle. Big Mike with Herbert playing indoors a lot in December…it could hit big at any moment, and they’ve had some huge ‘highs’ this season together…which makes the mediocre games feel more frustrating. We know what they’re capable of.

Jaylen Guyton (2-10-1/2) has a string of three weeks in-a-row with a TD but look at the targets during that stretch: 4-3-2. One of the games with Keenan Allen out with COVID, and he mustered 3 targets. It’s FF-something that he exists with Herbert, but Joshua Palmer is coming on fast to share in those limited targets. Guyton is a risky play, but hopeful a TD falls his way…especially hopeful at HOU this week.  

 -- Justin Jackson (13-86-0, 1-13-0/1) was the best RB on the field in this game. In many key spots in this game, Jackson was in and not Austin Ekeler (12-59-1, 4-23-0/4)…which Ekeler was hurt going in, but he was playing and working fine, but I think JJax got so hot that they stuck with him in spots.

Ekeler starts Week 16 with COVID, but with the new rules he’ll likely be clear by Sunday. If he is not, Jackson will be an RB1 this week.

Outside of the COVID situation, Jackson has at least established that he is the proper handcuff for those with Ekeler…but you might not get to him now with Ekeler having COVID – everyone will be coming after JJax, where he is still available.

 -- Jackson sure looked better than Clyde Edwards-Helaire (9-32-0, 2-18-0/4)…talk about a perpetual dud.

Here’s how bad this was: The Chargers are notorious for their issues stopping the run, and while the KC passing game floundered for three quarters, the Chiefs could not get CEH going…nor did they seem that interested in doing so, one or the other. All kinds of RBs have mowed over the LAC run defense…but not CEH in the most critical of moments for him to do so.

CEH has played 9 games this season…

-In seven of the 9 games he has rushed for 63 or fewer yards.

-In five of the 9 games he has rushed for less than 50 yards.

-The supposed master pass catcher out of the backfield has caught no more than 3 passes in a game all season and never eclipsed 30 yards receiving this season in any game. Darrel Williams has 30 or more yards receiving in a game five times this season.

I will maintain my stance that the Chiefs are better off with Darrel Williams (5-12-0, 0-0-0/1)…and he’s not all that great either. In games where Williams has taken 10 or more carries in a game, the Chiefs are (5-0)…and (5-4) in all the other games – which is just a quirky stat, I don’t believe Williams is the end-all-be-all.

 -- Credit the Chargers-DST for flustering KC’s offense for about the first 53 minutes of this game. This LAC defense has some potential. They squashed NYG the prior week, but then gave up garbage late/the last 4 minutes of the blowout. This defense is trying to peek through…

Week 16 at HOU and Week 17 v. DEN are hopeful DST options, as I’ve been pushing for a month+. It’s not perfect, but it’s something.

 -- The KC defense came up big on those goal line stands and facing LAC’s offense isn’t a favorable matchup because Herbert can make lemonade out of the O-C’s playbook. You can use the KC-DST with confidence against PIT Week 16 and with some confidence Week 17 at CIN.

Nick Bolton (14 tackles, 3 PDs) was a machine in this game for KC, a difference maker…which he was to start the season but then they benched him for struggles in pass coverage – they found out that he has other gifts to bring to a defense that they should utilize in this game. I don’t think he’ll be benched any more, but with KC/NFL coaches in general…you never know what’s going through their minds. They love things that don’t work and hate unplanned things that do work.

Snap Counts of Interest:

65 = Mike Williams

62 = Kennan Allen

33 = Palmer

28 = Guyton

43 = J Jackson

27 = Ekeler

13 = J Kelley

60 = Tyreek

49 = D Robinson

46 = Pringle

31 = Hardman (this puppy is about over)

51 = CEH

21 = D Williams

**College Football Metrics 2022…new season signups coming in January 2022**

The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!

The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…

Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.

R.C. Fischer

FFM

21 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 15: Steelers 19, Titans 13

Two OK fading teams with weak QBs played a game, and somehow the one with the better run game and defense lost. I’m not sure that I’ve seen one Steelers win this year that made any sense to me…just how is it possible they won the game? I don’t think the Steelers have outplayed any opponent in their wins…and they definitely didn’t in their losses. How they have a winning record is why football is great (unpredictable) and maddening (unpredictable).

Tennessee had nearly double the yards as the Steelers and 4x the 3rd-down conversions, but they fumbled 5 times and lost 3 of them, and had 4 turnovers total. The Titans had twice the time of possession…and still lost, somehow. It was a fluke…at just the wrong time.

Tennessee falls to (9-5) and the dream of the #1 seed in the AFC is slipping away since they lost Derrick Henry. The AFC South title is now in jeopardy as well…Indy is just a game behind them now, however the Titans have beaten them twice this season, so it’s really a two-game lead with 4 games left. 10 wins is likely for Tennessee, 11 wins possible…but it’s going to be a limp and stagger to the finish. One more win SHOULD lock up the AFC South, and they have Houston Week 18. We project the Titans will finish with 11 wins and sneak away with the AFC South title.

The Steelers are now (7-6-1)…they’re lucky not to be a 2-3 win team. We see an (8-8-1) finish at best, and no playoffs. However, they do have some hope of winning Weeks 17-18 (CLE-BAL) and winning the AFC North, we just don’t see them doing it…not at all. But…the Steelers have shown anything is possible. 

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- We were pushing D’Onta Foreman (22-108-0, 2-27-0/3) as the big upside RB of the week, among those flex type/untrusted type names at RB this week. Everything made sense – the flow of the offense starting to go his way the past few games, and especially the opposing defense created a good matchup…the Steelers are dying trying to stop the run. We got what we wanted here for a touch count with pretty good production…except we didn’t get a TD to send it over the top.

What I don’t like here is that Mike Vrabel keeps pushing Dontrell Hilliard (9-49-0, 4-10-0/6) at first, but then quickly goes to Foreman and ends up sticking with Foreman. I’m not sure what he thinks he owes Hilliard, but this offense is so much better with Foreman. Vrabel figured that out here…too late. He should’ve given Foreman 30+ carries pounding away at Pittsburgh up the middle…instead, he got cute with student body pitch sweeps to the outside with Foreman and rare few straight up the middle runs…like what Minnesota did to PIT a week ago. Foreman is an interior pounder, not a sweep guy so much.

However, that it starts for Tennessee, Foreman ends up taking the most touches and is by far their best back by the end…but that’s happening on a suddenly pretty bad offense, so the FF upside is always in question week-to-week – it’s a low scoring offense with too much RBBC ‘sharing’. Foreman is a stable-ish RB2 every week and Hilliard, and Jeremy McNichols (6-26-0, 3-25-0/3) are random PPR Flex/RB3-4 options.

 -- Big Ben (16-25 for 148 yards, 0 TDs/0 INTs) was nothing this week. The only credit I’ll give him is that when the Steelers got the ball, Ben didn’t mess it up. They barely had the ball in the game (just 20 min. time of possession). So, the WR output in this game was garbage…because they didn’t really have much of a chance at that ‘Big Ben is down by 2-3 scores, so now let’s start throwing every play’ type activity to boost targets/catches – thus, the Diontae Johnson’s (5-38-0/5) weak game.

 -- The Najee Harris (12-18-0, 2-8-0/5) mess is not unusual…it’s the norm. Low everything…low yards, low ypc, low yards per catch, low catch count. Facing KC-CLE-BAL to the finish won’t help him boost output.

He’s not in the same class of talent as fellow rookie Javonte Williams, but I guarantee you Najee will be a #1-2-3 overall pick in redrafts and Javonte will be back-end 1st-round or 2nd-round.

 -- Ben and the passing game squashed. Najee had his worst game yet. Blame the oncoming Tennessee Titans defense. They are an inconsistent but rising unit…and the first sign of the oncoming growth is – whacking weaker opponents. They squashed the Steelers here, just their offense gave up 5 turnovers and put them in bad spots too often.

The Titans-DST has potential against SF and MIA the next two weeks but it’s not a sure thing.

 -- Chase Claypool (1-7-0, 0-12-0/2) was key to the Steelers comeback last week, so did he follow that up this week? Nope. No catches on 2 targets. He plays 60%+ of the snaps now…he sees 2-3 flutter ball bombs, completely covered, with him trying to outleap the defender to a typically underthrown ball.

Claypool is a WR3-4 in a world with a ton of random WR3 names you could roll with who work with much better offenses/QBs and play in better weather than what Claypool is stuck with right now.

 -- A couple of Titans IDPs to hit on…

Zach Cunningham (6 tackles) actually started (cut by HOU, picked up two weeks ago) and played 67% of the snaps here. I’m not sure if Cunningham starts when David Long is eligible to return…but it’s not out of the question…he has a relationship with Vrabel back to their HOU days.

DT Naquan Jones (4 tackles, 1 sack, 2 TFLs) has 2.5 sacks in his last five games…4.0 TFLs in that span as well. He’s earning more and more playing time and is perking up for IDP purposes.

Kristian Fulton (3 tackles) is allowing just 47.8% Comp. Pct. on passes thrown against him, with a QB rating of 67.7 allowed this season. He’s getting better and better for this defense – part of the reason for the rise of this entire unit.

Snap Counts of Interest:

48 = Diontae

33 = McCloud

31 = Claypool

17 = Washington

71 = Westbrook-Ikhine

56 = Hollister

28 = Rogers

31 = Foreman

29 = Hilliard

23 = McNichols

**College Football Metrics 2022…new season signups coming in January 2022**

The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!

The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…

Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies. 

R.C. Fischer

Total Football Advisor

20 December 2021

A look back at the Chargers 2021 season via RC's weekly game recaps/analysis with 2022 notes/comments added to this review...

Ross Jacobs

FFM

18 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 14: Vikings 36, Steelers 28

If you haven't seen this one yet, I'd recommend you go watch it for yourself. What an absolutely wacky game.

The entire first half can be summed up by saying the Steelers didn't show up to play. They looked like a legit JV high school team. Not even kidding. It was painfully obvious to everyone watching. The score was 23-0 Minnesota at the half and we were all wondering if Cook was going to run for 400 yards.

And then the 3rd quarter started and not a whole lot had changed it seemed. The Steelers were still sputtering around on offense like they've done all year. The Vikings kicked a couple of field goals and the game looked over at 29-0 with just over one quarter still to play.

And that's when the crazy started.

All of the sudden it was like Pittsburgh suddenly realized they had a project due the next morning and they needed to down a couple cups of coffee and start working feverishly to get it done in time. They scored 3 straight TD's before Minnesota got nervous and tried to put them away with one of their own. Sure, the Steelers did great cutting it to an 8 point game, but now the Vikings were up 16 again and all was well, right?

Wrong. A Cousins interception gave Pittsburgh new life and they capitalized with a score and 2-point conversion to make it 36-28. Minnesota tried to run out the clock with just minutes left, but the Steelers finally found their defense and stopped them.

Pitt ball with a little over 2 minutes left. The Vikings had done nothing to slow the Steelers for the past quarter, and the game felt like it was headed to OT. But at the last second the Vikings defense bowed up and halted Pitt while the clock ran out.

The Vikings hang on for the win after utterly dominating early. We've seen this pattern so many times this year it's become routine. 20 point leads essentially mean nothing anymore if the teams are close in talent level because the team that is leading just goes into conservative prevent defense mode and the trailing team is allowed to complete tons of short passes underneath that lead to easy scores.

Minnesota gets to 6-7, easily the best team with a losing record in the league. 5 of their 7 losses this year have come by a combined 13 points. They just are not doing well in close games, and basically every game has been close for them this year.

The Vikings finish out the year with games against the Rams, Packers, and twice against the Bears. They will likely go 2-2 but possibly 1-3 to finish with a losing record and out of the playoffs. All year I kept thinking they were ready to make a turn and possibly sneak into a wildcard spot, but it just never materialized. At this point you have to think Mike Zimmer is probably on the hot seat. We'll see if he survives for another year or not.

Pittsburgh falls to 6-6-1 and are trailing in the NFC North race. They have performed poorly all year and I hope they lose all 4 remaining games, but looking at the schedule...there's hope for them to sneak into the playoffs or even win the division if the Bengals and dying Ravens fall apart at the end.

The Steelers have the Titans, Chiefs, Browns, and Ravens left. I don't think they can take down the Chiefs, but the other three are winnable games against solid but injured teams. Most likely Pitt goes 1-3 or 2-2 in this stretch and just miss the playoffs, but a few lucky breaks could see them find a way in. I'm betting they come up a game or two short.

After that is anyone's guess. There's a lot of heat on Tomlin right now, but the Steelers never make coaching changes hastily. I'll bet Tomlin survives and is given another year. It's not going to go well though because Ben is done in Pittsburgh and Tomlin in all his arrogance is either going to roll with Dwayne Haskins as his QB intentionally or try and fail to trade for an elite QB from another team (none of whom want to play in Pittsburgh for obvious reasons). Like it or not Haskins is likely the starting QB for the Steelers in 2022, and we all know how that's going to go. Good luck running the ball with Najee in 2022!

Fantasy Notes

--I guess now we have to take Big Ben seriously for fantasy the last couple weeks of the playoffs. He has 11 TD's his last 5 games and the passing numbers are trending up as well as he tries to garbage time his team back into games. If you need a QB streamer this week against an average Tennessee secondary is as good a spot as any. You could make an argument for using him in garbage time against the Chiefs the following week, but personally I'm not that brave.

*RC NOTE: And the Titans passing defense is starting to take a turn as guys get healthy and rookies develop, etc. They flustered Mahomes Week 7 (held to 3pts!!) and they pick-sixed McStafford twice in a Rams passing game squash. 

A rising Titans pass D and cold weather…don’t love it for Ben this week, but he’s not totally dead like he was a few weeks ago. 

--There was quite a bit of noise made about Chase Claypool (8-93-0/9) after this game due to a penalty he got for poking a defender in the eye and then for a first down celebration late in the game that might (or might not) have lost his team some time trying for a field goal.

After the game, Tomlin did admit that he benched Claypool for a period of time during the game due to the penalty and obviously wasn't happy with the late sequence either, but I don't get vibes that this is as big an issue for the Steelers as the media is making it out to be. Tomlin actually sounds quite patient and willing to work with Claypool right now.

Despite all the many reasons I dislike Tomlin in his managerial style, this is the correct move. Claypool is far too talented to just discard. As Tomlin says, he's a young guy and still learning maturity. It's not like he's out partying with strippers or stealing crab legs from restaurants or something. He celebrated a first down the same way he always does and was a little lax in taking notice of the clock situation. He'll learn in time. If he doesn't then the Steelers will move on, but that's farther down the line.

I don't expect any adverse effects from this right now. Claypool is a big part of this offense (even though it hasn't felt like it lately). In his last four games he's been targeted 9-8-3-9 times and has gone over 80 yards each game with 8+ targets. It isn't the numbers we want because he and Ben are struggling to connect on these hail mary deep balls, but he's back to being more WR3 than random WR4. He's also overdue for a TD with only 1 on the entire season (that blows my mind too...).

--I heard some talk about James Washington (4-65-1/6) getting more time because of the Claypool problems and Washington being such a good worker bee...blah blah blah. It isn't happening. Maybe they put him in a tiny bit more just to push Claypool, but he's not taking anyone's job. Washington is still a distant 4th behind DJ, CC, and McCloud. 

If anything we'll see McCloud elevated over CC for the time being. That's what happened here with the snaps after Claypool was benched for the penalty. I have no interest in Washington.

*RC NOTE: I think James Washington earned Ben’s trust a touch more…and he might see 3-6 targets per game vs. his normal 0-3. Ray-Ray has been the one earning more trust/targets/snaps…6-32-0/8 here, and three weeks prior he had a 9-63-0/12 game with Claypool out hurt. 

A little rise in Washington, more snaps/trust for Ray-Ray…I think it all hurts Claypool’s case for ‘he’s all Ben’s got when not throwing to Diontae’ FF hopes week-to-week. Claypool has been mostly a WR3-4 dud until this breakout…and it happened late in all-passing, desperate comeback attempts. It’s hard to trust CC right now, for FF, based on typical game flow for weeks…but now if JW and Ray-Ray are going to see some more looks, even worse. 

--Adam Thielen still hasn't practiced since his high-ankle sprain injury and will probably be out again this week.

In his absence we can expect another healthy dose of KJ Osborn (3-83-1/9). If you started Osborn here it worked out pretty well because of his long TD, but things were a little scattershot outside of that. I watched this back trying to see the problem, but I didn't notice anything on Osborn's end. He was moving well and getting open. Kirk just wasn't getting it to him accurately.

It was clearly a Kirk issue too as he had similar problems with Jefferson who only caught 7 of 15 passes. Not really sure what was going on with Cousins though. Maybe just an off night.

I'd expect a more solid showing from Osborn against the Bears this week. I think we're in for another 5 or so catches for 75 yards with a shot at a TD against a suspect Bears secondary. I don't see anything to fear with Osborn and think you can start him with confidence as a WR2-2.5.

IDP Notes

--There were multiple reasons for Dalvin Cook's big day here, but one high profile guy stood out as a clear problem for the Steelers, former 1st round pick Devin Bush. Now, I will defend Bush a little bit because his defensive line was allowing blockers to get on him literally every play, but regardless Bush was out of position constantly, couldn't get off blocks, and was just getting absolutely abused here, especially in the first half.

Thinking back to a few weeks ago, I bet Bush was a big part of why Joe Mixon crushed them as well. Bush just doesn't look right compared to his first season. Maybe the 2020 injury robbed him of some athleticism. Maybe he still hasn't fully recovered but will get back to normal with another year.

I don't have those answers, but I do know he's a liability right now and I am loving this for D'Onta Foreman this week. Fire that bad boy up because he's got some huge upside against this sieve of a defense.

--That was a negative IDP look, but now we've got a nice positive. Armon Watts (3 tackles, 1 sack) is looking mighty good as an up and coming defensive tackle. He's got 5 sacks on the season now since having his snaps elevated in week 4.

His playing time steadily grew for the next 6 or 7 weeks until he was playing around 70-75% of the time, but they have gone back down the past two weeks. I don't think that's going to last. He looks excellent. Prototype size, good movements skills, very light mover for as big as he is, power to push blockers back...if he's not one of the best defensive tackles in the league next year I'm a monkey's uncle.

Watts was a 6th round pick out of Arkansas in 2019. He had some fans around the league due to his excellent highlight tape, but there were some questions about his effort and experience/playing time due to being a one-year starter. It looks like he's answered those questions and is living up to the flashes of talent he showed in college.

Snap Counts of Interest

72 = Diontae Johnson

63 = RayRay McCloud

44 = Chase Claypool

30 = James Washington

67 = Justin Jefferson

60 = KJ Osborn

29 = Dede Westbrook

3 = Ihmir Smith-Marsette

R.C. Fischer

FFM

18 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 14: Browns 24, Ravens 22

Lamar Jackson got hurt early in the game, and all seemed lost for Baltimore. The Browns were playing solid football…and they got all the breaks early (dropped INT by BAL, ill-timed penalties, etc.), and then Lamar was gone. It looked hopeless. Cleveland was up 17-3…and 24-6 at the half…and 24-9 at the end of three quarters. Everything seemed under control for the Brownies.

But credit the Ravens for not quitting…they started to climb back into this game in the 4th-quarter. Credit the Ravens, credit a ‘gamer’ performance by Tyler Huntley, credit an overrated/mediocre Browns team desperately trying to hold onto the luck that got them to the early lead.

With a 1+ minute remaining, Baltimore scored a TD to draw the game to 24-22 Browns -- and on the ensuing onsides kick…a perfect bounce hitting a Browns player in the chest and ricocheting to Baltimore for the recovery. With 1:15 left, and the ball at midfield…and possessing Justin Tucker – it looked like a miracle Ravens come-from-behind victory/total Cleveland collapse. The Browns got a crucial sack, forcing the momentum against Baltimore who then had to throw deeper to get a 1st-down, and they couldn’t keep the drive alive, and the Browns held on.

Neither team was good here. It was an old-fashioned AFC North plodding/grinding slugfest (more slug than fest). The Browns win to keep their AFC North title hopes alive.

Cleveland is now (7-6), a game behind Baltimore with four games to-go. Week 15 hosting Las Vegas should be a win, but the Browns have an unknown roster due to COVID (as of this writing), and likely Baker Mayfield and Case Keenum are out, and Nick Mullens will come up from the practice squad to start. If the Browns lose this Week 15 game, the easiest game they have left on the schedule, then they will likely finish with 8 wins and out of the playoffs…but 9 wins is quite possible. It will be a dogfight to the finish.

Baltimore falls to (8-5) with three games ahead that they will be underdogs in: GB, at CIN, LAR. I would project them to lose each one of those and possibly play a winner-take-all Week 18 vs. PIT for the AFC North crown. We project the Ravens finish (9-8) and yielding the AFC North title to Cincy but getting a wild card with already-booked key wins over DEN and IND helping push them in the wild card tie breakers.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- First, allow me to say this… Tyler Huntley (27-38 for 270 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 6-45-0) played a very solid, admirable game in relief of Lamar. Huntley is like an 80%+ version of Lamar. If Huntley had a better/stronger arm, he might be as-good, better than Lamar.

Huntley is a capable+ runner, but a shade slower than Lamar and without all the highlight reel runs that bluff people into thinking Lamar is better than he is (*see, also: Michael Vick). Huntley is a better/smarter passer…he just doesn’t have the arm strength or rapid release of Lamar.

I say all this to note…

1) When Lamar is out…Huntley is the perfect fill-in. Not much of an overall drop-off at all.

2) In 2021, Huntley has been forced to start once for Lamar COVID (earlier this season) and then played most of a game here…two real meaty games of action for Huntley. In both games he threw the ball 35+ times (36 and 38 times), and with that he completed 71%+ of his passes each event. He doesn’t have the arm, but he does have the anticipation and vision. He’s not bad.

3) Bad draw to play Green Bay Week 15…Lamar is going to be out (as I broke a few days ago) and Huntley gets a real start, but the Packers defense is very good and might have Jaire Alexander back. It’s a tough spot for Huntley to shine.

 -- It’s clear to me that Rashod Bateman (7-103-0/8) is better than Marquise Brown (5-41-0/8) already, but I also know I’ll be moaning about Bateman’s underutilization for the next 2-3 years.

Lamar Jackson is a very limited, low volume passer. Everything he does is to Marquise Brown or Mark Andrews (11-115-1/11)…it’s what he’s comfortable with, no shame in that…and the way Bateman works, as a technician, is the completely wrong style for Lamar as an improvised deeper ball thrower. Whatever FF heights Bateman hits the next 1-2 seasons with Lamar, he will be a level lower than he should…because of Lamar.

I imagine Bateman will see more and more targets, over time, with Lamar…but that just means instead of Marquise as a WR1 and Bateman a WR3…they might both become FF-inconsistent WR2s.

I’m pro-Bateman, and he played an excellent game here – and he’s better with Huntley because he has a connection with him more than Lamar, logically from time on the 2nd-team this year together.

I’m anti-Bateman with the Ravens/Lamar, in general, ahead…for Dynasty, etc.

The way that Bateman could flip the script is Marquise gets hurt for a while, as he does, and then Bateman is discovered by Lamar and a relationship is changed/formed. I’m not against possessing Bateman for such a hope, but if I had to bet on the future – I have to bet against Bateman being nothing more than a WR2-3, more WR3 in this offense.

The biggest takeaway is…the rise of Bateman pulls off of Marquise Brown’s value/output into the future.

 -- Rashod Bateman looked good here, as was just mentioned…but, honestly, the most impressive WR to me here was Donovan Peoples-Jones (5-90-0/7) – and it’s the second time in the past two months that I ‘get this feeling’ on him. There’s something here. There’s something bigger than the situation – I hate the CLE passing game (for FF). I hate the CLE passing game in December/January. I know the Browns want to run-run-run, but with all that…DPJ is sticking out like a star-in-waiting. Not just good WR in the right place at the right time, but more of a…this dude might be a #1 WR type profile, an alpha.

Here’s a re-reminder that shocked even me, because I forget how athletic DPJ is (sing Bateman ‘just because’ we’re talking about him in this report…

6’1.5”/212, 10.1 hands, 33.5” arm, 4.48 40-time, 44.5 vertical, 11’7” broad (no agility times) = DPJ (2019 Combine)

6’0.3”/190,  9.5” hands, 33.0” arm, 4.43 40-time, 36.0” vertical, 10’3” broad (solid agility) = Bateman (2021 Pro Day, so factor in some fluff).

In this game, I marveled at DPJ racing deep down the sidelines and Baker lofting one out to him, tightly covered, and then DPJ just flew into the sky, over top of the DB by a foot+, to make the beautiful snatch…but landed out of bounds – or it would have made his day 6 catches and 100+ yards and even more FF-heat on him.

I need to focus more on DPJ and less on how I hate the CLE passing game (for FF). Bateman is at risk of being buried in BAL. Whereas Peoples-Jones will be entering his 3rd-year with Baker in 2022, and rookies and/or free agents coming in around him could force DPJ to be Baker’s #1.

I want to love DPJ more to the FF finish, but Week 15 he’ll have Nick Mullens at QB in the cold/wind/light rain of Cleveland.

Week 16 with Baker back…vs. Green Bay in the cold, not good at all.

Weeks 17-18 with PIT-CIN are OK, but also getting colder outdoor games.

DPJ is a good, cheaper Dynasty stash for 2022.

 -- With Kareem Hunt continually getting hurt, D’Ernest Johnson (4-22-0, 1-7-0/1) is getting more and more action and he is really starting to grow/gain confidence in his play. He’s not getting the same treatment as Hunt used to as the ‘1b’ with Chubb, but Johnson is growing in baby steps in the secondary role.

I don’t think D’Ernest has a lot of FF use for this season, but he’s not a zero. I think he’s getting the attention of people around the league…but it would take a big leap of faith to make a bid on him as a restricted free agent in 2022. And the Browns will not dump Hunt before the 2022 season because he is their heart & soul on offense. Chubb is their best player, but Hunt is their spiritual leader.

D’Ernest is buried, sadly, for the foreseeable future.

 -- IDP Grant Delpit (11 tackles, 1 INT) was once hailed as the top safety prospect in college football…a top 5 mock draft pick.

I can tell you this – he sucks. He’s a mediocre coverage safety who doesn’t look like he knows what he’s doing all the time. Wildly unimpressed with him. How he got credited with 11 tackles in this game…I have no idea. His pick was a pass thrown right to him with no one else around.

Snap Counts of Interest:

60 = DPJ

54 = Landry

24 = Higgins

43 = Chubb

14 = D’Ernest

13 = Hunt

06 = Felton

70 = Mq Brown

49 = Duvernay

48 = Bateman

23 = Watkins

49 = Devonta

20 = Latavius

**College Football Metrics 2022…new season signups coming in January 2022**

The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!

The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…

Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies. 

Ross Jacobs

FFM

17 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 14: Rams 30, Cardinals 23

This was an exciting one that also had massive implications for seeding in the NFC.

The Cardinals started off the game with a sack and false start. Things were already looking bleak, but then Kyler got in gear and drove the team down for a FG. They would stop the Rams first drive and promptly drive down looking to extend their lead.

Instead, Kyler was intercepted at about the 5 yard line and the Rams returned it for good field position. It was a momentous play and set the tone for the rest of the night. Watching live I thought Kyler just never saw the linebacker, but after watching it back the pass was tipped. Just an unfortunate play that ultimately proved to be a 14 point swing.

The Rams would score after that interception, but the Cardinals weren't about to roll over. The Rams got up 10-3 but the Cardinals fought back to tie the game with yet another James Conner 1-yard TD run. A pair of field goals, one from each team, would round out the first half at 13-13.

The first 3 minutes after the half would ultimately cost the Cardinals the game. The Rams got the ball first and hit a fantastic long bomb to Van Jefferson for a score and a 20-13 lead. On the next possession, Kyler rolled out to his left and tried to throw a pass over Leonard Floyd's head but didn't get enough air on the ball and it was intercepted.

The Cardinals defense stopped the Rams after the interception, but a penalty was called on them on 3rd down giving the Rams a new set of first downs. They scored and suddenly it was a 27-13 lead for the Rams.

Arizona still wasn't quitting because they are one of the toughest teams in the league and took the next drive down the field. They got a 4th and 2 inside the 20 yard line but the ball clanked off DeAndre Hopkins's hands for what would have been a tough catch. More points the Cardinals were denied.

They managed to stop the next Rams drive, got the ball back, and this time put it in the endzone to finally cut the lead to 27-20. LA came back with a FG drive and it looked like the game was over with time winding after the Rams stopped the next Cardinals drive.

Arizona somehow got the ball back one last time and they had to have a score. They kicked a FG with about 30 seconds remaining and miraculously got the ball back. They had a pulse.

But as usual it was not to be. A holding call brought back a huge Kyler run on 1st down and Aaron Donald's 3rd sack of the night ended the game.

This loss drops Arizona to 10-3 and they are now the 3rd seed in the NFC with some problems. Losing home field advantage is going to be huge if they have to go to Green Bay for the championship game. They are probably out of the picture for the #1 seed because their remaining schedule is much more difficult than either Green Bay or Tampa's.

Right now though they can't be worried about the top seed because they have to work just to hold off the Rams now. LA is only a half game back and has a slightly easier schedule. My best guess is both teams finish up strong at 3-1 and the Cardinals take the division, but it's not a guarantee now.

My takeaway from this game is that the Cardinals are definitely the superior team. No questions about it. They had multiple things work against them here, poorly timed penalties, failed 4th down conversions, goofy turnovers and none from Stafford who had been handing out pick 6's like candy on Halloween.

Arizona is still right in the mix for best team in the league along with Tampa and Green Bay. It's a shame all three are in the same conference. There are going to be some wild battles between them, and it only gets worse if Dallas can get healthy.

The Rams are definitely in that next tier, good enough to beat anyone on any given day, but just a tick worse than the best teams. You can't count them out, but I have a hard time seeing how they get to the Superbowl because they'll have to win 3 straight games against the best teams. I don't know that they are consistent enough to do that. Consistency is why Tampa and Green Bay are on top right now over Arizona even though I think top to bottom Arizona is likely the best team.

Let's not get too carried away thinking the Rams are suddenly fine though. They got a good win here aided by some good fortune, but it is not guaranteed that they'll beat Seattle this week, especially with so many players battling COVID. If they lose this game then it's a wildcard for sure.

Fantasy Notes

--Kyler Murray (32-49 for 383 yards 0 TD/2 INT, 7-61-0) had a somewhat muted fantasy night, but it was mostly fluky that he didn't score a few TD's. He still threw for nearly 400 yards and would have been at nearly 100 rushing but for a holding call. He's still one of the best fantasy QB's in the game when healthy and I expect him to finish up strong.

--I'm not saying too much here about James Conner (13-31-2, 9-94-0/9) here. You know my stance. The rushing totals tell the true story. He's not a good back. I don't give a damn that he caught a one-handed catch on national tv. That does not automatically make him a good back. He's working for fantasy because he's been the lucky beneficiary of short TD's all season while Edmonds got hurt, and now they think he's an amazing player because he scores, so they are throwing every checkdown pass to him while the defense chases all the actually good players around the field.

It's a joke, a fraud based on circumstances, but it's working so you ride it for now. Just know, Conner is going to be an early 2nd round pick in fantasy drafts next year...if I catch any of you drafting him I'm petitioning RC to kick you out of FFM. I'm not having it.

*RC NOTE: I was thinking about this as James Conner was being inducted into Canton Monday night…

Last year, Kenyan Drake was annoyingly good for Fantasy in a similar way as Conner – lower yards per carry, stuffed too many times on 3rd & 1 and 4th & 1’s but a flurry of short TDs and RB1 status late in the season. At the same time, Chase Edmonds was putting up RB2 numbers as, essentially, a WR playing RB. Once Edmonds went down, Conner has taken the Drake-Edmonds role from 2020 and mashed it together just recently and is grabbing all the FF-gold. 

We’ll see if it is Conner or Drake or Edmonds or whomever in 2022, but I think the thing we’ve learned in 2021 and 2020 is that the lead back for Arizona is an FF gold mine – and they will be worth a 2nd-Round redraft pick. I thought that player was gonna be Chase Edmonds to start 2021…and they tried, but it failed into a split role of ‘meh’ but Conner scoring TDs. Now, with Edmonds out, Conner has consolidated all the power…he’s Thanos collecting all those stones (I’m not sure what I’m saying, I don’t really watch those movies…but hopefully it makes sense).

If Conner is the lead back for Arizona in 2022, and Kobra Ky is still there – Conner is a 2nd-round redraft pick, maybe a 1st-rounder.

…thus, I may be petitioned to kick myself out of FFM…that’s trouble for my family to eat in 2022. Can I be kicked out of FFM? Can God create a rock so big He can’t move it? He made James Conner a top 5 PPR asset all of a sudden, so He can do anything. 

--Chase Edmonds will play this week, but I don't think it hurts Conner at all. They think he's a star now and are going to give him 70-80% of the touches including all the juicy redzone stuff. Edmonds doesn't look playable to me in championship games unless you are seriously desperate.

At least with mild frauds like Deebo Samuel and Ja'Marr Chase, they have some natural talent. They aren't bad players, just not the gods they are made out to be. Conner isn't good at all. This won't hold up in the long run.

*RC NOTE: Look at the difference of Kenyan Drake in Miami v. Arizona v. now in Las Vegas.

Look at Conner in PIT v. ARI.

It’s ‘Arizona’ to ‘blame’, not Conner. But, in FF…we buy situations as much as player talent…we want both, but if you can only have one…you want the ‘starts at RB for Arizona’ attribute more than ‘runs a fast 40-time at 220 pounds’ (see: Saquon Barkley). 

--DeAndre Hopkins went down with a foot injury in this game and he's done for the year. In his place it looks like AJ Green is the top target. Some people are going a little too crazy with this by assuming Green steps into the Hopkins void and takes all those stats, but that line of thinking has two problems. 1. Hopkins hasn't been playing much this year and Green wasn't all that great without him. And 2. Hopkins wasn't getting massive targets when he was healthy.

Kyler is spreading th

e ball around to the open man. Has been all year. Green looks like he's finally developed some chemistry with Kyler though, so he might be the de facto #1, but this isn't prime AJ anymore. He's just ok these days. It's probably good for WR2 numbers to finish out though.

--I'm sorry to dunk on an FFM favorite, but I think I'm losing interest in Rondale Moore. He's not a bust or anything. He looks fine. But I don't see any signs of special like we hoped. He's just another small fast guy out there, and in this offense there's no volume to be had. Kyler is spreading the ball around too much. Unless I see a real push next year I'm moving on to more lucrative pastures. I'd take Elijah Moore over Rondale now heads up.

*RC NOTE: You go where the scouting and real results take you, and I’ve jumped ship to Elijah as my favorite Moore (after Dinty). But I’m ready to jump back on Rondale in a hot minute. He;s starting to flash some subtle signs. Don’t give up on Rondale yet. 

--For all the OBJ truthers out there thinking he's a megastar...no, just no. He's still the same overrated guy he was in Cleveland. The offense here is better and he's not the focal point, so he's producing some WR2 stats, but all he's done is replace what Robert Woods was doing. If he's not better than Woods then how is he a superstar?

The TD here was just a simple slant. They force it to him to prove they are smart, not because he's so amazing. And most of his yards came from one shallow cross where his man got caught in traffic and he ran wide open for 40 yards. On his other 5 catches he got a mere 35 yards. I'm sorry, but he's just not that guy anymore. He's just another ok receiver that still can't catch in traffic.

--Sony Michel (20-79-0) looks slow. Maybe it was just the Arizona defense, but I did not like what I saw from him here. If that's the best he can do then this isn't a competition once Henderson comes back. I think Darrell is going to take this job completely once he's healthy. No split.

IDP Notes

--Man, Marco Wilson (2 tackles) had a rough day giving up a couple of short TD's that were just out of his reach, but that dude can play. He was a guy RC liked in the draft for his natural movement skills and coverage ability. The only concern was his consistency.

I watched him a lot in this game and it's official, he's very talented and I think the consistency is going to come with time. Give this guy 2-3 years and we might be talking about one of the best corners in the league. He is so smooth and athletic. Just needs to work on his technique more. Great showing Marco.

R.C. Fischer

FFM

17 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 14: Saints 30, Jets 9

10-6 Saints the half. Both teams struggling to put anything together because both offenses are really low rent right now.

13-6 Saints at the end of three…we still got a ballgame.

Then the Saints started to pull away with the Taysom Hill running effect wearing NYJ down…and the Jets could not answer.

The Jets are now (3-10)…and they still have an outside shot at the #1 overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, but likely they finish with a top 5 or so pick. Week 16 hosting Jacksonville might get NYJ to their 4th win and well out of the #1 pick sweepstakes.

The Saints stop their five-game losing streak and get to (6-7). The Saints have a shot at 9 wins and a possible wild card, but 8 wins and out of the playoffs is more likely.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Only one real note I have New Orleans’s side… I mean, everything about this team (for FF) is Kamara and all the WRs/TEs are FF-useless. This we all know.

Taysom Hill (15-21 for 175 yards, 0 TDs/0 INTs, 11-73-2) was on his way to a crappy FF game…until he rushed for a TD with 5+ minutes left…which then made it just a weak FF game, no longer a full disaster. But trying to run out the clock late, Hill ran a basic off tackle run to get a first and end the game…but he had nothing but blue skies to run to…so he just raced 44-yards for a 2nd rushing TD in the game and suddenly it was a very nice FF week for him.

If Taysom doesn’t get you a ground score week-to-week…he’s going to kill you with his low passer numbers. Two starts now, and he was headed to two very mediocre FF efforts…and then he had that lucky Deonte Harris long TD late v. Dallas to boost his FF output…and then the lucky late TD run here that he almost just sat down on to run the clock, but he just went with it to the house, thankfully, if you had Taysom starting.

Week 15 at Tampa Bay is not a great setup for Taysom…Hill likes to power run the ball, and Tampa is the most vicious run stopping D in the league. Taysom is not going to win (for FF) often with big passer numbers. On top of that, as of Thursday…his best two OLs (Armstead and Ramczyk) haven’t practiced this week yet. It’s a very sketchy week for Taysom.

 -- I was wondering if Zach Wilson would have a nice follow up to his solid effort last time out, and he was not terrible here -- but he wasn’t great. He has little time and poor WRs facing a good Saints pass defense. No turnovers is a good thing but no real positive FF action either. Wilson won’t be a discussion point for FF until 2022 sometime, at best.

 -- Michael Carter is on IR (but should come off Wk15) and Tevin Coleman was out with concussion, so who did the Jets turn to? Slow-ass LaMichal Perine (7-28-0) mixed with Ty Johnson (6-17-0, 4-40-0/7). When Carter (and/or Coleman) returns, Perine goes back to obscurity and Ty is a weak RB3/Flex for PPR.

 -- Who does Zach Wilson throw to with Corey Davis and Elijah Moore gone?

Braxton Berrios (6-52-0/10) had 10 targets here…and earlier in the season (Weeks 1-2) when Crowder-Moore were hurt/not a thing…Berrios averaged 6.0 rec. (9.0 targets), 62.0 yards per game with Wilson. You got a chance at 3-6 catches for 30-70 yards per game with Berrios-Wilson…just likely no TDs.

D.J. Montgomery (3-36-0/6) is an athletic small school WR who I liked as a sleeper prospect a few years ago…and out of nowhere he got 59% snaps and 6 targets in this game…playing early on and consistently. He looked more nervous than anything else, but I’ll give him a pass for his most NFL time/quasi-debut here (of a bigger role) after years of practice squad/future contract time served. I’ll keep tabs on him, but he’s not likely to be anything for FF in 2021 (or probably beyond, but I’ll keep tabs).

The funny part about Berrios with 10 targets and Montgomery out of nowhere with 6 is…

Jamison Crowder (3-19-0/6) and Denzel Mims (0-0-0/1). Wilson doesn’t seem to be a huge fan of Crowder…even with Davis-Moore gone.

Snap Counts of Interest:

60 = Crowder

55 = K Cole

39 = DJ Montgomery

27 = Berrios

22 = Mims

48 = Ty J

17 = Perine

51 = Vannett

23 = Juwan J.

**College Football Metrics 2022…new season signups coming in January 2022**

The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!

The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…

Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.

R.C. Fischer

FFM

17 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 14: Broncos 38, Lions 10

I don’t think anyone was shocked by this outcome. I thought Detroit might be able to hang close/within the big spread, but then the Lions lost several players to COVID on top of just generally sucking and a 28-point beatdown ensued.

Detroit falls to (1-11-1) and could win Week 16 v. ATL to get to two wins and their tie, and that be a devastating win to allow the loser of this week’s JAX-HOU matchup to possibly slip into the #1 pick spot ahead of Detroit.

The funny thing is -- all three coaches of these bottom feeding teams are motivated to win by whatever delusions play out in their heads. Dan Campbell and David Culley think ‘wins’ build momentum…like field goal attempts do when you’re losing 47-0 (hey, at least we didn’t get shutout! What momentum!!). And then there’s the new Jags O-C, the kiss-of-death to any head coach…assistant coach Darrell Bevell – he thinks winning a game could land him a head job! Ha!!

These three guys…when they need to win, they lose. When the smartest thing they can do is lose…they’ll go and win and ruin the draft positioning.

Denver is now (7-6), and they might fulfill my June-July-August preseason wild card prediction. Their fate may hinge on Week 15 hosting Cincinnati…a game they’re favored to win, but I think they will lose. Win Week 15 and they should be able to get to a minimum of 9 wins. Lose Week 15 and it’s going to be a tough road to 9 wins, and then allowing Cincy to have a tiebreaker over them might come back to haunt them if they all end up with 9 wins. Huge Week 15 game this week for Denver…and the future of Vic Fangio.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Godwin Igwebuike (8-25-0) started in this game, but was (shockingly, to me) quickly rotating in and out with Craig Reynolds (11-83-0, 2-16-0/2)…who was just activated off the practice squad for this game.

The two backs were switching in and out every few plays, but when Igwebuike was in he would not see the ball, but Reynolds would come in and get a hand-off…and he’d gash the defense for 5-10+ yards…then they’d rotate, then they’d rotate back again with Reynolds gashing the defense again.

I was shocked and somewhat appalled to see Reynolds getting such work via the box score on Sunday – why wasn’t Igwebuike getting more of a push after what he’s done the past few weeks? But watching this game back, I ended up appalled that they’ve kept Reynolds on the practice squad and didn’t give him 20+ touches here. He was clearly the better back and making things happen, but because Detroit is Detroit…they pulled back the reins on any success happening.

Assuming Swift is out again this week, I’d assume a Jamaal Williams ‘start’ and then Reynolds taking a split workload and eventually outperforming Williams…whatever that means, via 2nd-half garbage in a 20+ point deficit. But, who knows the mind of Dan Campbell?

 -- I know what the trend says…I know there’s good garbage time with Lions players…but I just can’t get strongly behind Amon-Ra St. Brown (8-73-0/12).

His last two games: 9.0 rec. (12.0 targets), 79.5 yards, 0.50 TDs per game = it should be exciting, but every time a Lions receiver has a good junk-time game or two, then they pull the rug out from under you.

I’m the one probably in the wrong, but this week vs. Byron Murphy is not good…but then again opponents are usually playing backups 2nd-half in a 20pt+ lead, so…you should probably be OK with ARSB.

 -- T.J. Hockenson (DNP) is now done for the year…I knew they were covering up or hoping against hope on his injury the past week or so. Any viable FF replacements for the Lions?

No

Brock Wright (3-20-0/5) is a stiff who will catch a couple passes by being ‘available’.

Shane Zylstra (2-18-0/6) is an interesting convert to TE, a former WR…a D3 star…but he looked like a scared, skinny TE in this game…but that’s to be expected. He did lead the Lions in snaps at TE? Maybe he shakes off the jitters and comes on a bit as we go? 6’3”/220+, big wingspan and hands, unknown speed/agility (2020 rookie in the COVID offseason of no/low testing).  

 -- Let’s finish out the Lions’ notes with an IDP…

Linebacker Josh Woods (13 tackles, 2 TFLs) got his first start, due to injuries/COVID and landed 13 tackles. He played half a game Week 13 and had 8 tackles. I watched him a bunch in this game…undersized/needs more muscle/bulk but is a decent athlete and he moves around to the ball well. He was patrolling the middle…which is a good place when you’re on DET with teams running out big leads there.

If Alex Anzalone is out again, and I think he will be – Woods could be in for double-digit tackles again this week.

 -- Noah Fant (4-51-0/4) hasn’t scored a TD in six games. He’s basically become a TE2 with Albert O. (5-41-1/5) rising up to TE2.

The past 6 games:

3.4 FF/7.2 PPR PPG from 3.8 rec. (4.8 targets), 33.7 yards, 0.0 TDs per game = Fant (last 6 games)

4.5 FF/7.7 PPR PPG from 3.2 rec. (3.7 targets), 35.0 yards, 0.2 TDs per game = Albert O. (last 6 games)

 -- So, this game began with a tribute to the late Demaryius Thomas. It was touching. Courtland Sutton (1-9-0/2) stayed off the field the first play to do a tribute…a 10-man huddle. Denver was penalized for it, but Detroit declined. Then Sutton came in solo to a rousing applause…Sutton being close with DT and Sutton a team leader. It was nice.

…but that’s why it was even more confusing to see Sutton get just 2 targets and one catch…a continuation of the total nothing he is producing for the team anymore besides a downfield decoy. It’s not him, it’s Teddy. If there was any game you were gonna plan to get Sutton going – versus Detroit in this emotional scenario would be it…and yet nothing.

That’s my cue, our cue to totally bail on Sutton for FF 2021.

He’s a buy low for 2022 right now, but pure unreliable FF-garbage for 2021 ROS right now.

Snap Counts of Interest:

59 = Sutton

52 = Patrick

41 = Jeudy

10 = Hinton

50 = Fant

38 = Albert O

40 = Zylstra

35 = Brock Wright

29 = Reynolds

28 = Igwebuike

03 = Jermar Jefferson

**College Football Metrics 2022…new season signups coming in January 2022**

The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!

The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…

Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.

R.C. Fischer

FFM

16 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 14: 49ers 26, Bengals 23

The Bengals were the better team here.

I keep saying that in Bengals games they lose. I have some justification for making those claims. Cincy has lost 6 games this season…four of them by three points, two of them in OT by three.

They were better than Green Bay Week 5 in their OT loss/missed FG festival game. They were better than the Chargers Week 13, when they lost by 19…down 24-0 in a blink, and then stormed right back into it but coughed up the comeback. They were better than SF here…clearly better, but when you fumble your first four kick/punt returns and lose two of them…you’re digging a hole that’s tough to come back from.

Cincy dug themselves a 20-6 hole on dumb return game turnovers, not on bad execution, and roared back to tie the game, dropped a game winning pick six with seconds remaining, going to OT and taking the lead, only to blow it in the end.

My bombastic statement of the day: Had the Bengals drafted Penei Sewell or Rashawn Slater, instead of Ja’Marr Chase…the Bengals would be the best team in the AFC today.

They have a better defense than KC-LAC-TEN.

Their QB is just as good as KC-LAC…and way better than TEN-NE.

Their rookie kicker is a weapon now.

Their problem is they have the worst O-Line among the top AFC contenders. History will judge the selection of Chase over O-Line pick at #5 in the 2021 NFL Draft as a franchise damning move…just like Dallas’s Ezekiel over Ramsey pick that’s been forgotten over time…not by me.

If there is a benevolent football god, the Bengals will win the AFC North. They are that division’s best team. They are (7-6) now, one game out…but the leaders in Baltimore are on the ropes/potentially going to lose 3-4 of their next four games and flush out. If Cincy can go to Denver and beat them this week – the Bengals are likely going to win the AFC North. If they lose to Denver, then it’s still up in the air. We project Cincy to finish (9-8) and winners of the AFC North…but (8-9) is not out of the question.

San Francisco got a real gift win here. Not that they played poorly, but they got every advantage and still barely eked it out. They are now (7-6) and should win a minimum of 9 games and make the playoffs…but they got a shot at 10 wins and then a for-sure wild card trip. We see them at 9 wins.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- I’m not kidding… Joe Burrow (25-34 for 348 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) is as good as AFC QB elite’s Mahomes-Herbert-Allen. For FF purposes, he’d run 4th in the pack – but in NFL terms he’s as good or better than them, I believe. Burrow has a Joe Montana, Tom Brady type of ability to run an offense, and over time he will be the emotional leader (he kinda already is in year two).

If Burrow is that good – there is a Fantasy future, a Dynasty opportunity. He’s not seen by the public as anywhere close to Mahomes-Herbert-Allen, but he might be there soon with big passer numbers ahead…especially if they get him an O-Line. But that’s the risk…they never do, they just keep drafting WRs instead. Arizona keeps drafting outside linebackers to not protect Kyler, so if they are missing the boat…Cincy for sure could and has.

Burrow has a tough finish, schedule-wise for FF 2021…DEN-BAL-KC, and all outdoor, potentially cold weather games. Still, he’s so good he might will his way to a string of 300+ yard and 2+ TD games.

 -- Jimmy Garoppolo (27-41 for 296 yards, 2 TDs/0 INTs) is pretty darn good in his own right. He’s Burrow lite…not as gifted, not as athletic but really solid with protection and is a team leader.

Jimmy G. has thrown for 2 TDs in a game in five of his last 6 games. He’s thrown for 290+ yards in a game in four of his last 7 games. He faces ATL this week…think he might do 290+/2+ again Week 15? Highly possible.

You know how to tell JG is playing really well? The amount of ‘San Francisco needs to just go ahead and start Trey Lance’ articles and social media snipes have gone from 400,000+ per week to near zero. There are more ‘maybe the 49ers should just roll with Jimmy G. in 2022’ discussions than ‘Where is Trey?’ bellyaching.

 -- Deebo Samuel (8-37-1, 1-22-0/1) is having the most bizarre season I may have ever seen in my decade+ of serious football observation.

First part of the season he’s doing fine/OK enough but then he would have that one wild, long TD play to make him an FF star every week. Then he totally changes gears and becomes a total dud of a WR but is suddenly the 49ers change of pace RB who cannot-not score a TD every week.

And Deebo doesn’t look great running the ball. He gets the handoff and starts scurrying, arms flailing and flapping…like a WR trying to play RB…but then it seems the defense is paralyzed by the sight of him carrying the ball and they watch him blow by everyone for a score.

In this game, the Bengals are the first team I’ve seen this season finally realize that when Deebo is lined up at RB…he’s 90% likely getting the ball. However, Deebo did shake loose for a jet sweep 27-yard untouched TD run…but 7 carries for 10 yards otherwise.

For the past three weeks, Deebo is like a Dontrell Hilliard or Tony Pollard…a secondary RB who is on a lucky TD run. In his last three games, Deebo’s receiving numbers:

Week 11 = 1 rec., 15 yards, 2 targets

Week 12 = 1 rec., 12 yards, 4 targets

Week 14 = 1 rec., 22 yards, 1 target

How can you be a ‘#1 WR’ and see 1 catch a game? But his carry counts have been 8-6-8 in a game in that same span.

If he doesn’t rush for a TD, he’d be deemed a borderline FF bust the past three games with his shift to the quasi-RB position. And he doesn’t even look that good running the ball – he’s nothing like Cordarrelle or Curtis Samuel/2020 or even Rondale Moore. But, somehow, he flaps his way to the end zone every week…so, why fight it?

 -- With shift of Deebo to change of pace RB, Brandon Aiyuk (6-62-1/10) has become the team’s new #1 WR. He’s a very shaky #1 WR…12 catches on 22 targets the past three games combined. But he’s getting WR2 looks and giving WR2 outputs, so why fight it?

 -- The real #1 WR among all the players in this game is Tee Higgins (5-114-0/7). Three-straight games with 110+ receiving yards. 9.7 targets per game the past three weeks. And he works with Joe Montana 2.0, so it’s onward and upward from here.

https://youtu.be/6L1eMkk_8Fo

 -- Ja’Marr Chase (5-77-2/8) is also getting a free ride off Joe Montana 2.0…in between several dropped passes, Chase will spring free, and Burrow will plant one on him for a score. To my wine critic, snobby football scouting eye sensibilities, Ja’Marr offends me…kinda like Deebo…not that they aren’t good players but their extreme outputs are above their reality. There are guys like Curtis Samuel, Rashod Bateman, Mike Williams, Bryan Edwards, Darnell Mooney, Michael Gallup, Deonte Harris, Chase Claypool, Courtland Sutton who are more gifted, in some cases WAY more gifted than Deebo-Ja’Marr, but they haven’t had the same luck and/or QB play to get the recognition…or FF payback.

Ja’Marr has officially dropped 11 passes, but I’d say it’s more like 17-20 so far…the ‘drop’ judgement calls by statisticians are about as bad as U.S. election tabulations. Open to interpretation and filled with bias.

 -- Jeff Wilson (13-56-0) has been forced to start twice, off Elijah Mitchell injuries, and he has done crap with those starts. He looks fine to my eyes on the tape, but then I see he has 44 carries for 139 yards this season…3.2 yards per carry. Why am I interested in him Week 15 if Mitchell is out again?  

 -- The Bengals defense was firing in this game…it’s just their special teams kept fumbling the ball away and putting them in bad positions. 5 sacks of JG…and 9 QB hits.

Cincy LB Joe Bachie (4 tackles) starting in the middle with Logan Wilson out…I thought he looked very promising. Very rangy and athletic. There’s an upside here.

 -- Evan McPherson (3/4 FGs, 2/2 XP) is averaging 2.5 FGs made per game the past 4 weeks. He’s also #1 in 50+ yard FGs (7) this season (tied with Chris Boswell). Just note for Week 15 – McPherson is a top long-distance kicker, and he plays at Denver in pretty perfect weather for December.

If Week 15 is do-or-die, and you get extra points for distance kicks, McPherson is set up to possibly be a PK savior this week.

Snap Counts of Interest:

40 = Mixon

28 = Perine

67 = Aiyuk

55 = Deebo

47 = Jauan Jennings

13 = Sherfield

42 = J Wilson

14 = Hasty

Ross Jacobs

FFM

16 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 14: Seahawks 33, Texans 13 

I don't think I need to tell anyone that neither of these teams are very good. The Seahawks won by 20 but I would not call this a dominant win. They muddled around with Houston for 3 quarters before finally slamming the door shut late. It wasn't pretty.

Davis Mills was running roughshod over the Seattle defense much of the game and it wasn't anything great he was doing. I think this defense is about to get lit up by the Rams.

The Seahawks get to 5-8 with some playoff delusions in mind. The reality is that they still have to play the Rams and Cardinals, neither a likely win. That leaves the Lions and Bears as the two most likely remaining wins which would get them to 7-10, a respectable total considering Wilson's absence in the middle of the season, but still not remotely good enough to win this division much less make a run at a Superbowl.

Changes will be coming to Seattle this next year, and I think that's going to start with Pete Carroll getting fired right after the season is over. It's either him or Russell is going to demand a trade. Something's got to give. And if you're Seattle management, it's a no-brainer, you release Carroll and give Russell whatever he wants. Anything else would be a shock.

Houston...I don't know what to say about them anymore. It's a dumpster fire down there. It was a dumpster fire coming into the season and everyone knew it. This team is untalented, missing draft picks, no real future at QB, and a weak head coach. I see no good coming to the Texans for several years at least.

Fantasy Notes

--All bow before the great and powerful RC! Rashaad Penny (16-137-2) was a godsend for many of us at RB this week. I personally debated Penny versus Foreman quite hard and was ultimately swayed by my supreme trust in RC. It doesn't always work out, but more often than not it does, and this is one of his best. I was actually texting him early on how angry I was for trusting him as Foreman scored an early TD while Penny was rotating carries with Collins and Dallas...and then Penny scored to even it up...and then scored again late to finish with a monster day!

Before we get too carried away with our brand new RB1 toy however, I have to caution everyone that this may not be as great as we're all hoping. RC warned us that the Penny play might be a one week thing only, and after watching this game I would say that's a fair warning.

Yes, Penny is going to get a decent crack at seizing the starting workload after this performance. Yes, he looks much better than any other option Seattle has. But...we still have a few problems.

First, Penny looked good but he didn't look that good and he was still being rotated out an awful lot. Penny took the first couple carries, then Collins got a few, then Dallas, and it was a Penny lead but Collins mixed in after that. My eyes tell me this was as much a Houston run defense problem as anything Penny was doing. Mostly he just ran straight ahead and it worked out well because he's decently strong and decently fast. Collins had some good holes too. He just doesn't have Penny's speed to take advantage of them. You'd think Carroll would commit to him after this but we can't take that for granted just yet.

The second problem is that the Seattle offensive line still isn't very good and now they have to face the 7th ranked run defense of the Rams. The Texans are dead last in run defense for the record.

And our third problem is that Collins just got put on the COVID list. But Ross, that sounds like good news! Less competition for Penny. No, and here's why. Penny already beat out Collins for the job. However, now that Collins isn't available that means that Adrian Peterson is very likely going to be elevated from the practice squad, and we can't be totally sure that Carroll won't still have his head shoved all the way up Peterson's ass. I suspect that Peterson isn't going to just stand idly by as Penny takes 25 carries this week. He's going to play and take carries. How many carries is the question.

If you made me put a number on it, I would guess that Penny is a 70-30 lead over Peterson. That's just my guess however. If the Seahawks get down early to the Rams which is very likely, then it's very possible Penny doesn't even take but 10-12 carries. In that scenario he would need a TD to be a viable play, and note that he wasn't remotely involved in the passing game so we can't count on catches to supplement his stats either.

It's a risky play this week. There is upside hope that Seattle can hang around and run the ball well to control the possessions which could lead to a big game for Penny. But we could very likely see Seattle down early and abandoning the run in which case Penny likely finishes with 40-50 yards and we're all left disappointed. This call is going to depend on the state of your rosters, your opponents' lineups, and how much risk you're willing to tolerate. There's no one magical answer as to whether you should start Penny or not. I'm sure we'll be talking with RC a lot about this in the coming days, so be sure to tune into the video Q&A's as we dive deeper into the issue.

--Davis Mills (33-49 for 331 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) had himself a nice day. Is this an emerging talent or should we be skeptical of Mills against better defenses?

I'm going with skeptical for now. I didn't see anything special Mills was doing here. He just distributed the ball to wide open players most of the day and it still only led to 13 points. Mills isn't bad at all. He's plausible.

He's in the game manager category with Mac Jones. I would say Jones knows the X's and O's better, knows where to go with the ball and when, but Mills isn't as jumpy and willing to quickly ditch the ball at the first sign of an open receiver. Neither has a huge arm, but Mills is a bit stronger. Neither is mobile. I think Mac probably has a higher ceiling if he can work on his arm strength, but he should get better as a downfield passer with time. Mills looks a bit limited to me in that he doesn't get through his progressions as fast and tends to lock in on one guy a little too much. You could certainly do worse though.

I haven't decided yet if I think Houston will roll with Mills in 2022 or replace him with a rookie. It could go either way and likely will hinge on what they think of the rookie QB class. There's simply too much risk and no perceivable upside to stashing Mills in dynasty though. Spend that last roster spot on someone that has a better chance to crack through.

--Rex Burkhead sustained an injury during this game and will be out against the Jaguars. That means that Royce Freeman (11-15-0, 6-58-0/8) is going to be involved, but David Johnson's return complicates things. How much is Freeman's role worth? Hard to say.

The Houston line is very bad and there's just not much room to run. Jacksonville doesn't have an atrocious run defense but they aren't great either. The interesting thing is that Freeman got some pretty good ppr receiving work at the end of this game while Houston trailed. Will they be trailing against the Jaguars? Maybe. It'll probably be a competitive game.

If we knew Freeman was going to be the strong lead I'd say he could be in line for some decent work. In the Texans two wins this season, their lead RB averaged 22 carries per game. The second back averaged 10.5 per game. In their next most competitive game against the Patriots, Ingram logged 16 carries. Now nobody ever gets many yards on those carries because the offensive line is so bad, but it's fairly safe work nonetheless.

My guess is that Freeman is going to function as the lead power back with Johnson as the change-of-pace and 3rd down back which has been the pattern with Johnson when he's played with Burkhead and Ingram all year. If that happens and Houston can keep this competitive, then I would expect 15-20 carries for Freeman to go along with 2-3 catches. That should net him somewhere around 50-65 yards and maybe 20 yards through the air. In ppr that works out to 10-12 points and then maybe he gets lucky and falls in for a TD? Not bad.

To clarify, there's not much upside here. This offense stinks and Freeman isn't going to magically cure that. But if your RB spot has been decimated by injuries/covid and you're debating guys like Travis Homer or Corey Clement or Craig Reynolds, then maybe Freeman is an upgrade over those options. Of course this all depends on my assumption that Freeman will be the lead over Johnson being correct. I'll be discussing this option more with RC soon.

*RC NOTES: I’m not sure what HOU will do at RB this week, but my early lean would be more David Johnson than not…Culley wants to win. And Freeman isn’t great and the Jags D-Line/run D is OK and now fired up minus Urban…and I’m warming up to Craig Reynolds in garbage time. 

--Nico Collins (5-69-0/10) has definitely established himself as the #2 option behind Brandin Cooks and is looking better and better every week. I'm not sure star is on the table just yet, but he's moving around so much better and more confidently than he was early in the season. He won't be a totally crazy play against the Jaguars honestly. He's a WR4 but going up against a weak secondary with a good shot at a TD this week.

--Like I mentioned last week, the future at TE for Houston is Brevin Jordan (4-26-1/7) and the future might be here already. Don't see anything special about him or this situation though. I have zero interest in him in dynasty or redraft.

IDP Notes

--Kamu Grugier-Hill was off to another good day before getting injured. His knee injury was feared to be quite bad at first, but it looks like he could be back sooner rather than later. Unfortunately, he was placed on the COVID list shortly after, so he's likely out this week. Christian Kirksey is the likely beneficiary if KGH can't play. Kirksey would be a decent streaming option at LB against a Jaguars team that is likely going with a heavy James Robinson plan this week in the absence of Urban Meyer.

Snap Counts of Interest

66 = Brandin Cooks

57 = Nico Collins

46 = Chris Conley

52 = Pharaoh Brown

29 = Brevin Jordan

35 = Rashaad Penny

14 = Alex Collins

11 = DeeJay Dallas