- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 15: Raiders 16, Browns 14
Two average teams played, one of them without their starting QB and several other starters due to COVID, and that team lost. That's the summary for this game.
The Raiders led 10-0 at the half, but it wasn't pretty nor impressive. Cleveland finally turned the game around in the 3rd quarter with a Carr fumble that gave them a short field. Nick Chubb punched in the score to make it 10-7. The Raiders extended their lead to 6 with a field goal, but Cleveland was able to put together a drive with just a few minutes left to take the lead.
With just 3 minutes left the Raiders needed a field goal to win, but Carr heaved a bomb into double coverage that was picked off. It looked like Cleveland was going to pull off the comeback. All they had to do was run out the clock, but it was not to be and the Raiders found themselves with one last chance. Carr dinked and dunked his way down the field, and Daniel Carlson booted the game winner with just seconds left.
This win brings the Raiders to 7-7 and keeps them alive for the playoffs. It's probably false hope though. They have remaining games against the Broncos, Colts, and Chargers. They will likely be dogs in all 3. My guess is they win one of those games at best and finish with 7 or 8 wins and out of the playoffs. I just don't see that this team has enough juice left to make a final push.
Tough break for the Browns as they almost pulled off the win without Baker Mayfield. They too are 7-7 now and technically are still alive for the playoffs, but just like with Vegas this team is dying. The offense is weak, the defense isn't great, they just have nothing to hang their hats on. Their remaining schedule is even tougher than the Raiders with the Packers, Steelers, and Bengals on deck. If they could find some way to beat both the Steelers and Bengals they could sneak out a playoff spot, but the odds of that are long. I think they finish just like the Raiders, maybe one win out of the last three games and a disappointing 7 or 8 win season.
Change is coming for both these organizations in the off-season.
Fantasy Notes
--RC is absolutely correct that Donovan Peoples-Jones (4-48-0/8) has the look of a #1 WR. He knows it. The team knows it. Mullens was trying to work him here, but the connection was just off all night. It's possible DPJ could have come down with 1 or 2 more passes, but all the missed ones were very tough catches because the ball was just not in a good spot. This was definitely more on Mullens than DPJ, but if you want to be a star in the league you have to find a way to make those catches.
I don't think you can use him for the rest of the year, but depending on what happens with Mayfield and the offense this next off-season, DPJ might be on my short list of undervalued players in 2022.
--On the other side, Zay Jones (6-67-0/9) has been perking up for weeks now as we've noted. Carr left another 70-80 yards on the field with some inaccurate throws to Jones or it might have been a huge day and we'd all be chasing him for our championship matchups. Despite the tick up the last 4 weeks, I don't think this is some imminent breakout. Jones is still just a WR3, but that's better than most anything else you'll find on waivers this last week.
--While Jones has been perking up lately, you could technically say the same for Bryan Edwards (3-8-1/4), but that just means he's no longer a complete zero. Now he's just another WR5. The highlight of his day was a phenomenal TD snatch on a high back shoulder throw from Carr. After that play though, Carr barely even looked Edwards's way again. I don't understand what the problem is with him because he looks just fine to me, but clearly there's been some issue all year. Whatever it is, I want no part of Edwards now or in the future unless something massive changes.
--Hunter Renfrow got completely shut down here after several straight weeks over 100 yards. Cleveland just has a really good secondary and they were all over Renfrow here. Unfortunately, it doesn't get any easier this week against an ascending Broncos defense. His targets should bounce back a little, but I'd expect more of a muted game than anything. Something in the range of 5-6 catches for 60 yards or so.
--Darren Waller still hasn't practiced this week with ankle and back injuries. It's looking like he's going to be out again this week unless he's able to get in a limited practice today (Friday).
If he can't go Foster Moreau (7-65-0/9) has some appeal, but with only 3 catches last week and 1 the week before that (all with Waller out) this game is looking like somewhat of a fluke. He's not a particularly good player and a lot of his action here came on the final drive where Carr was just dumping everything short. If you're super desperate I guess it's as good a shot as any, but I'd rather shoot my shot with a Ricky Seals-Jones for example.
--Nick Mullens (20-30 for 147 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) did about as good a job as you could hope for in this terrible offense and missing so many players. He's a decent backup, but this was just an unfair situation all things considered. Mayfield is supposed to play against the Packers on Saturday, but it likely doesn't matter. Cleveland will need a tremendous amount of luck to win that game no matter who the QB is.
Snap Counts of Interest
52 = DPJ
44 = Higgins
37 = Chubb
29 = Felton
18 = D'Ernest Johnson
59 = Zay Jones
54 = Renfrow
48 = Edwards
20 = DeSean Jackson
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 15: Rams 20, Seahawks 10
This game was a 10-10 tie into the 4th-quarter. The Rams playing better but a little lax against Seattle, and the Seahawks playing for their playoff lives. Eventually the superior team started to pull away in the 4th-quarter to the victory…the Rams took it by 10 points and put Seattle out of the playoffs, and sent them to their first losing season in a long time. It wasn’t a masterpiece, but the Rams did what they had to do.
Seattle is now (5-9) with likely big changes coming this offseason…one of Pete Carroll or Russell Wilson is going. Only an idiot(s) would choose to stick with Carroll in that equation, so it’s 50/50 that a football ownership/management group does just that. There’s no way it makes any sense to bring both guys back. I’ll assume Seattle will let Carroll resign with dignity and let Russ help choose the next head coach he wants to work with.
Carroll has to see it coming, so Seattle will probably play loose/unpredictable the next few weeks as Carroll will operate like a substitute teacher and/or delegates a bunch to his staff. It’s just this team is so bad…I think they’re all making vacation plans and looking forward to next year.
The Rams are now (10-4) and in great shape for the playoffs, and with a shot to take the NFC West from Arizona now. Odds are against them but it's within reason now.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- As I was chirping about all last week leading into this game…that Rashaad Penny’s (11-39-0, 2-5-0/2) Week 14 explosion was matchup based (v. HOU), on top of him being good. Week 15 vs. LAR was not going to be a favorable for FF output due to the opponent…with a risk of a real FF-dud, and that’s what happened.
It didn’t help that Penny missed a chunk of the game due to his favorite play; the old: ‘Get hurt and go to the locker room’ play. Penny returned late but was still ineffective and Seattle was down and passing with DeeJay Dallas (8-41-1, 3-11-0/4).
I wonder the following thought, which is something (probably useless) to worry about…but just talkin’ wild thoughts:
I wonder, now that Seattle is toast for 2021 season, and Carroll knowing/assuming he’s done…will he pull back on Rashaad Penny now? I mean, the guy has screwed him for four years – a wasted 1st-round draft pick…always hurt…never lived up to expectations. Penny was his best RB to try and improbably run to the playoff hopes…but now, with those dreams dashed, does Carroll throttle back on Penny or even totally screw him going into his free agency, and/or give a DeeJay Dallas or Travis Homer…or even Alex Collins an extra opportunity for their recent efforts? Why help Penny going forward?
Just the conspiracy theory in me…or the bastard in me (because that’s what I’d do).
-- We all wondered: what would the split be like when Darrell Henderson (6-23-0, 2-4-0/2) came back from injury/COVID, between he and Sony Michel (18-92-0, 2-23-0/2)? The answer = a resounding tilt to Michel.
Perhaps, the Rams were comfortable to bring back DH slowly…and he’ll get more involved next week? Perhaps. But Michel is starting to work well, and Sean McVay has never been that pro-DH…so, finally, all these weeks…late into the season – I might be right from my preseason prediction: McVay is gonna turn on Henderson.
For sure, when Cam Akers is back…McVay will shut-back-out Henderson in 2022.
…or in 2021 season, because Cam Akers is slated to be back practicing this week. I suspect Akers will practice a little this week and not get activated Week 16. He’ll get more conditioning Week 17…and maybe Week 18 too, to try to be ready for the playoffs. I don’t believe Akers will see a touch in Weeks 16-17, but suddenly it’s not off the table.
Weeks 16-17, you have to bet on Michel as the lead back/main touch guy but if Hendo gets hot in-game it can go any which way.
-- Odd output from the non-Kupps…
Van Jefferson (2-23-0/2) and Odell Beckham (1-7-0/3) were ghosts…against a mediocre pass defense. They’ve both been good/decent together this season, for FF, so I’m not panicking if I am running with them. However, Odell is starting to flash some warning signs of being Cleveland Odell. But this Rams situation is a good fit for him to show up when he wants to, so I think he’s as OK a WR2-3 as you’ll find. Ditto Van J.
-- Russell Wilson (17-31 for 156 yards, 0 TD/1 INT) is not helping the case of the people versus Pete Carroll-not-allowing-Russ-to-be-cooking.
In his last 8 games, Russ has thrown for over 250 yards in a game…just one time. 9 TDs/5 INTs in that span…barely a TD pass per game. He barely runs the ball anymore (1 rushing TD this season).
Blame Pete…blame Russ. Blame Russ’s finger injury. Blame whatever…but his production has been sagging for two seasons now, especially as the season wears on. Russ has nothing to play for this season and he doesn’t care about Pete Carroll, so how good is he going to be these final few games?
-- And Russ’s bad cooking is leaving an upset FF-stomach for D.K. Metcalf (6-52-0/12).
Did you know that since Russell Wilson returned from his few games missed with the finger injury that D.K Metcalf has not caught a TD pass? Nor has he gone over 60 yards in a game in that span?
What causes it to change ahead?
-- If Seattle is checked out, in a sense, now that they are out of the playoff chase…will the nice matchups of v. CHI and v. DET the next two weeks work for the Seahawks-DST? Maybe…maybe not. I’m skeptical…but the potentially messy weather for Week 16 might be OK, especially if Justin Fields is out.
-- What about the Rams-DST with two mediocre matchups the next two weeks…at MIN, at BAL.
Well, Week 16 will be MIN without Dalvin Cook, which helps.
In their past 6 games, the Rams defense has given up 22 or more points in a game four times. But in their last three games they’ve shut down Week 13 JAX and Week 15 SEA. MIN and BAL ahead have better offenses than JAX and SEA.
I think the Rams-DST will be OK the next two weeks, but it’s not a slam dunk.
Snap Counts of Interest:
48 = Michel
18 = DHendo
33 = DeeJay Dallas
24 = Penny
01 = Colby Parkinson
**College Football Metrics 2022…new season signups coming in January 2022**
The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!
The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…
Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.
- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 15: Bills 31, Panthers 14
This was a get-right game for the Bills. There's nothing particularly “wrong” with them really. They've lost 3 of their last 5 games to the Patriots, Bucs, and Colts. Those aren't bad teams.
The Bills aren't a weak team. They are a good but flawed team, as so many are. The biggest thing holding them back is the offensive line. They just are not a good group, and rookie RT Spencer Brown is the weakest link. They really need to get this addressed to have a chance in the playoffs.
I think because they completely crush some teams, we started to think they were better than they are. But they really remind me of the Bucs in a lot of ways. They demolish the weak but are susceptible to better teams, especially physical teams. Can the Bills win a Superbowl? Yes, with some luck. Are they the favorites? Absolutely not.
With the Patriots losing to the Colts this past week, the AFC East is suddenly wide open again. This game is massive. Win and the Bills should run the table to close out the season and get to 11 wins. Do that and they should win the division in tiebreaks. Lose and they are hoping for a wildcard.
As long as this game isn't played in a massive snowstorm, I think the Bills should be able to pull out a close win over the Patriots. It's going to be tight, but let's see if McDermott can pull out a tough win to finish. He has a tendency to fail in these big situations.
I wouldn't attempt to use the Bills defense this week against the Patriots. They have really fallen off hard since Tre'Davious White got injured, and they are particularly weak to power running right now, the Patriots specialty.
Not much to say about the Panthers. They are looking at 5-6 wins max. The defense is fine. They should be a top 10 group again next year. The issue for this team is the same as it is for most. Terrible QB and terrible offensive line.
In fact, the difference between the Bills and Panthers pretty much just comes down to the difference between Cam/Darnold/Walker and Allen. That's what an elite QB does for you, lift an otherwise poor team into the playoffs. I'm not so sure Josh Allen wouldn't be my choice for MVP this year. I know the team has been a mild disappointment, but if they can win out and take the AFC East I think Allen has a reasonable case to be made. He won't get it regardless, but he should be in the discussion. He does more with less than just about any QB in the league. I absolutely love watching him play QB.
Fantasy Notes
--Matt Rhule has already announced Cam will start again this week but that Darnold would play as well. It's just going to be a rotation to see if one guy gets hot. Hint: they won't. Both guys suck and don't have any time to throw behind this offensive line. Tampa is going to murder them. Do not start Cam. His legs have been helping him work for fantasy a bit, but Tampa is likely to squash him the way they squashed Taysom and now he'll be rotating in as well. It's just a bad situation all around.
--I guess Ameer Abdullah is the back to own over Chuba Hubbard? I mean, you don't really want either guy, but Abdullah is the only one catching dump passes and that's the only real path to points for the backs right now. Just avoid this backfield please.
--I cannot get a handle on this Buffalo backfield. One week it's Moss taking the lead, then Breida looks like he's going to get in for some ppr work, and now Devin Singletary (22-86-1) is the lone guy getting 20+ carries.
I've said all along he's their best back, and maybe McDermott has finally figured that out, but I doubt it. I can't find any info on why Moss was a healthy scratch here, but I'm guessing it's got to do with his play and some recent fumble troubles.
If we knew Singletary would be the sole guy against the Patriots, he might have some RB2 appeal, but I don't think you can count on that with any certainty. The plan is different every week seemingly at random. The only reason he even got 22 carries is because they were crushing the Panthers and could run the clock out late. That won't be the case against the Patriots. Unless you are really desperate I would just avoid starting Singletary this week.
--Josh Allen still looks as good as ever. His toe didn't seem to be bothering him at all, or if it was you couldn't tell. I'd expect a healthy dose of him running against the Patriots this week. His passing numbers are down because he has to get rid of the ball so fast, but he's still a QB1 because he scores so much.
--Gabriel Davis (5-85-2/7) has been a TD scoring machine the past few weeks in the wake of Emmanuel Sanders falling off. This is his 4th TD in the last 3 weeks and there's clearly a developing connection between him and Allen. He's shot up from a rotational guy to playing 85%+ of the snaps the past two weeks.
He's not the greatest receiver I've ever seen. Just an average athlete at WR. He was the lead guy for UCF in 2019 where he was a downfield playmaker for an explosive offense. Not much seems to have changed in the pros as he's averaging 16.2 ypc after averaging 17.1 as a rookie last year.
Again, he's not doing anything particularly special, but he is the established #2 WR for Allen now, and that means he's going to do alright for fantasy. Don't fight the TD's too much. He's drawing weaker coverage because teams are so worried about Diggs. His floor is around 5 catches for 65 yards each week (11.5 ppr) with chances at TD's. He's a solid WR3 to finish out the season with.
IDP Notes
--Yetur Gross-Matos (5 tackles, 2.5 sacks) had himself a nice game. I'm honestly not sure how it happened though. He was not noticeable at all. I only remember seeing one of his sacks and it was just a pure coverage sack, nothing he was doing. The Panthers pass rushers were teeing off on a bad Buffalo offensive line, especially against Spencer Brown, but Gross-Matos was the least impressive of the group. I don't think this is something that is emerging with him.
Snap Counts of Interest
40 = Abdullah
36 = Hubbard
63 = Gabriel Davis
58 = Stefon Diggs
32 = Cole Beasley
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 15: Bengals 15, Broncos 10
This was a slugfest between two of the better ‘almost’ teams…
Denver is ‘almost’ a playoff-worthy team…they are a step away, their defense is really coming on, but they have a problem on offense/QB (Teddy).
Cincinnati is an ‘almost’ too…almost the best team in the AFC. I will probably say this every month of every year until the Bengals win a Super Bowl: Had they drafted Sewell/Slater instead of Ja’Marr Chase they would be the best team in the AFC right now and poised to be that in 2022+. You don’t want to play Cincinnati in the playoffs as it is. 2021 may not be their time, but watch out in 2022-2023.
This game was two good teams slugging it out and battling with field goals, and then the game changed in the 3rd-quarter. Cincy leading 9-3 and then Teddy Bridgewater took a hit and landed on his head and was taken out of the game for good. Drew Lock entered and the offense suddenly had a spark…Denver took a 10-9 lead. Cincy took it back soon after to go up 15-10. Denver was driving into the Cincy red zone mid-4th-quarter and then a weird play where Lock had the ball just taken from his hands by a pass rusher…no real contact, just reach out…a snatch & grab job and a crucial turnover.
The teams exchanged a few drives in those few final minutes, but their defenses were so tight, no scoring…and Cincy held on for the win.
The Bengals rise to (8-6) and find themselves sudden leaders of the AFC North…and the favorites to capture the title. If Cincy defeats Baltimore this week, then the Bengals should have the inside track at the AFC North (70%+ chance by estimates if CIN wins and CLE-PIT also lose, as expected, this week), but it’s still very much in flux. If there is a football god, the Bengals will win the division – they are the best team in the AFC North by far.
The Broncos fall to (7-7) and need to get to 10 wins to realistically have a shot at the playoffs…thus, they need to ‘win out’. They’re not likely to do that with at LAC Week 17, and v. KC Week 18. Denver is still alive for the playoffs, but it’s a very low probability…they’re essentially dead for the playoffs.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- This offense just looks better, more dangerous with Drew Lock (6-12 for 88 yards, 1 TD/0 INT). It’s too late now but had Denver just groomed Lock through the entire year with their defense coming on strong – this could have been a dangerous playoff wild card. Instead, they will likely fall short and probably get Vic Fangio fired…but who really needs to go is O-C Pat Shurmur.
The offense will not fall off with Lock this week v. LV (how could it get worse?)…he takes more chances, but he also makes more things happen.
Lock helps Albert Okwuegbunam (3-58-0/4) as they are well-documented friends/college teammates. Albert might be a TE1 shot this week, but it really more hurts/drops Noah Fant and rises Okwuegbunam up to the Fant TE1.5 projection level…potentially.
Nothing, not even Lock, can help Courtland Sutton (2-12-0/7)…he looks terrible. Mike Hilton (4 tackles) ate him alive. Also did you know Jerry Jeudy (0-0-0/4) is still in the NFL? Boy, the Henry Ruggs and Jerry Jeudy Alabama WR high pick draft duo really have mattered nicely in the NFL?
Which reminds me…this Bengals defense is really good. They squashed the Broncos most of this game without their best defensive player out with COVID (Awuzie).
-- The better defense of these two really good defenses…is the Denver Broncos defense. They are really starting to emerge. It’s one thing for Cincy to shutdown this Denver disaster offense led by Teddy and failure O-C Pat Shurmur. It’s another to make Joe Burrow (15-22 for 157 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) struggle.
Tee Higgins (2-23-0/3) caught two passes in the first 7 minutes and then they locked him down the next 53 minutes…no catches. The Denver secondary/coverage unit is finally all healthy and maybe as good as it gets in the NFL right now. Ja’Marr Chase (1-3-0/4) got totally wiped out. Better game coming for the Cincy WRs against BAL. This was a Denver thing, not a self-induced Cincy passing game failure.
-- I thought Joe Mixon (17-58-0, 1-2-0/1) was in real trouble to play Week 16 with the injury he had late in this game, but (as of this writing) Mixon has practiced in full two days in a row, so he must be good-to-go. Full trust.
-- Lastly…
I’m so proud of myself for pushing Evan McPherson (3/3 FGs) as a specific Week 15 playoff game monster upside kicking at Denver (the air)…and, well, he hit a 53 and 58 yard FG for the sweet bonus action and then added another 26-yarder to get you an RB2 type of week…winning some people their FF-games Week 15.
It brings me so much joy to watch all these games, to scout all these players, to watch the Senior Bowl practices and watch all the tape college and pro to get a feel for these guys…including kickers, and then months of work can mean the win-loss with such a move as switching kickers to McPherson in a do-or-die week, and it hits for all of us that utilized it.
The little things…
Snap Counts of Interest:
44 = Javonte
31 = Gordon
60 = Fant
30 = Albert O.
31 = Mixon
16 = Perine
53 = Browning
42 = J Griffith (9 tackles, 1 TFL, 2 QB hits…and should start again this week for Kenny Young)
**College Football Metrics 2022…new season signups coming in January 2022**
The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!
The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…
Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.
- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 15: Cowboys 21, Giants 6
This was an ugly affair. The Giants just have nothing going for them on offense right now. Terrible offensive line, no QB, and the skill position players are beyond frustrated. The Cowboys defense just crushed them and that was the game essentially.
At first I was confused about why the Dallas offense looked so poor here. Was this some new issue that they would have to worry about moving forward?
The answer is no, not exactly, although things aren't perfect. The biggest reason why they looked bad is that the Giants defense is just really, really solid. They don't have any star power right now, but if the offense wasn't constantly putting them in bad positions, they could be a top 10 unit. Once they get Blake Martinez back next year this defense might even be a top 5 unit with a couple minor tweaks.
Quincy Roche (who New York plucked from Pittsburgh this preseason) and Azeez Ojulari are looking like an emerging young pair of pass rushers for the Giants in the vein of Carolina's Haason Reddick and Brian Burns. And the scary part is they are both rookies.
The offense is still too bad to help them so you can't start the Giants for fantasy yet, but I'll be looking at them very hard in 2022 as a potential shock defense that you can draft late.
There's a lot of pressure in New York to dump Dave Gettleman, and I have to admit I've never been his biggest fan, but RC is right that Gettleman has really assembled a lot of talent and deserves another year. This team is a QB and some offensive line support away from being a very strong team.
The Cowboys only scored two offensive TD's here, and they both came from short fields after the Giants turned the ball over. I already talked about how sneaky good the Giants defense is, but the Cowboys do have a couple issues of their own.
The biggest thing plaguing them here was the absence of Tyron Smith again. This offense consistently takes a step back whenever he is out. Dak was under constant pressure here, and Zeke had nowhere to run. Smith hasn't practiced so far this week and is considered day-to-day. They need him back to have a shot at a Superbowl.
Dallas is up to 10-4 with three winnable games remaining. None of them are gimmes, but they should be favored against Washington and the Eagles. We'll see if Arizona can bounce back against the Colts this week. If they are collapsing, that just helps Dallas more. If they can win out they have a shot at possibly the #2 seed in the NFC.
If Smith can make it back for the playoffs Dallas has as good a chance as anyone outside of Green Bay to make the championship game. The defense is playing well and the offense is good if not all that explosive anymore. They are playing like a slightly worse version of the Packers right now (no surprise since McCarthy was the coach there for so long), a versatile offense with lots of options to attack with and a stout but not shutdown defense. It's a good recipe for postseason success.
Fantasy Notes
--Dak Prescott (28-37 for 217 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) hasn't been the same for fantasy in weeks and I see no change on the horizon. He doesn't have to do much right now. The formula has changed. With the emergence of the Dallas defense, the offense can simply play the ball control game and grind out wins. It's the same thing that's held back Rodgers's stats this year. Dak is still capable of those huge weeks where he scores 3-4-5 times, but it's not the norm anymore. And again, the presence of Smith is a huge bump for him. No Smith, don't expect a big game from Dak.
--I still maintain there's nothing (or not much) wrong with Ezekiel Elliott (16-52-1, 3-20-0/4). Maybe he doesn't quite have the same short area burst as he did before the knee injury, but right now I just don't see anywhere for him to run. He was getting hit in the backfield on nearly every carry.
Part of the reason I projected a strong finish for Zeke was the potential for increased carries with Pollard out, but Tony was back this week and looking as good as ever. Because of this development you do have to tone back expectations for Zeke. He's an RB2 for the moment in this split backfield.
--Tony Pollard (12-74-0, 3-13-0/3) was shockingly back in here and looking just fine after it looked like his foot injury could sideline him the rest of the regular season. I guess you can use him how you were using him before. He'll see good touch counts but is still missing out on the scores most weeks. Think of him like Chase Edmonds from early in the season. Solid floor but not much upside.
--With the offensive line struggling, the passing game has become very muted for Dallas. It's still mostly short targets to Dalton Schultz and CeeDee Lamb in the slot, and then Michael Gallup has become the de facto #2 WR ahead of Amari Cooper.
I still have no idea why Gallup has ascended ahead of Cooper, but that's the reality. The only guys you can count on these final weeks are Schultz and Lamb though. Schultz is a ppr top 5 TE and Lamb is a WR1.5 or so. If he would stop dropping passes he'd be a WR1.
--Similar to the Zeke/Pollard issue, the Giants are dealing with much the same with Barkley and Booker. There's nothing wrong with Barkley. He is moving just fine. He's just got nowhere to run. Booker looks great at times because the defense doesn't care about him. When Barkley is in, he's the obvious focus of the defense. You just can't count on him for fantasy right now. He's a RB3.
Also, in both of these RB cases, the two guys averaging better ypc, Pollard and Booker, are being used more on edge runs and sweeps while Zeke and Barkley are just taking straight ahead carries up the middle into bad offensive lines. It's no wonder the edge guys are more efficient and thus look better. They are running into space instead of into a wall of defenders.
--Jake Fromm came in for Mike Glennon late. Glennon didn't play badly at all really. He just has no time to throw. The turnovers weren't even really his fault, just bad luck.
Fromm didn't look awful exactly, but he's every weak-armed, smart, backup QB ever. He can run the offense and make predetermined throws when on time, but rush him and he's going to throw the ball into traffic.
Facing the Eagles this week is problematic. They have a good defensive line that's going to give this bad Giants line fits, and Darius Slay has been a turnover monster lately. There's a high chance of a pick 6 or two happening if Fromm starts.
IDP Notes
--Trevon Diggs (4 tackles, 2 pd, 1 INT) had another INT gift wrapped for him by Glennon. I swear every one of his INTs this year has been thrown right to him. He's a fine corner but not nearly as good as he's being portrayed because of these fluky TO's. To me GB's Rasul Douglas is the better corner right now. Don't fight it for fantasy though.
Snap Counts of Interest
44 = Zeke
29 = Pollard
37 = Saquon Barkley
28 = Devontae Booker
- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 15: Packers 31, Ravens 30
This game will only be remembered for the failed 2-pt conversion at the end, but that overshadows a fantastic game all around.
Baltimore came into this game banged up worse than any team in the league, multiple guys out due to injuries and covid, their backup QB getting only his second start, going up against arguably the best team in the NFL and they nearly came away with the victory.
Highly impressed with what I saw from the Ravens here, and I've been unimpressed and rooting against them all year. This was easily the best performance I've seen from them.
The Packers hang on for the win, but it's no slight to them. Baltimore just played a great game. GB is still the best team to my eyes. I wasn't a fan early on, but they just keep getting better and better and still haven't got Alexander and Bakhtiari back yet. If they do, there's no team deeper or more dangerous. Both players are likely still out this week against the Browns, but both guys have been practicing and should be ready for the playoffs.
GB is now 11-3 with the inside track to the #1 seed in the NFC after Tampa crapped the bed against the Saints. The Bucs are a great team and offense no doubt, but they do have a tendency to fold sometimes against better, physical defenses. Not so with GB. They are just so consistent. You can only hold Rodgers down for so long. He has too many weapons to work with.
The GB defense is fantastic as well. Probably not the absolute best group but top 5 for sure. They are deep at every unit and led by the best secondary I've seen this year, a secondary that is still missing their best player. Once Alexander comes back there will be no passing on this group, not to WRs anyways. The way to beat GB is going to be running the ball, throwing to the TE, and playing good defense. No worries starting them against the Browns this week no matter who the QB is, although it does get juicier obviously if Mayfield is out.
Baltimore falls to 8-6 with 3 straight losses. Their season is falling apart. The injuries have caught up to them and their good fortune is finally failing. Just note though that all three of those losses came by a combined 4 points. They are still a very solid and dangerous team. I just don't know that it's going to be enough to hold off the Bengals for the division.
The game against Cincy this week is massive for both teams. The Bengals currently have the tiebreak over Baltimore after crushing them early in the season. A Baltimore win would put them up a half game with a split in the heads up matchup. They still have tough games against the Rams and Steelers after that, but this Cincinnati game is a must-win. Lose and they will be lucky to get a wildcard spot.
Fantasy Notes
--The RB trends for GB reversed themselves this week as Aaron Jones outcarried AJ Dillon 13-7. I don't think it's a pattern that will necessarily stick however. Both guys were in early splitting reps essentially 50-50. It just so happened that Jones was more effective than Dillon against a good Baltimore run defense. His speed was allowing him to cut back against aggressive run crashes.
I think we've entered a true 50-50 split with chances for one guy to get hot and take a few extra carries, but most weeks I think it will default to Dillon as the slight lead. GB wants to wear down defenses with his physical running. Most teams aren't going to be able to bottle him up as effectively as the Ravens did, and he'll for sure be the guy grinding out games during blowouts.
--Marques Valdes-Scantling (5-98-1/7) finally had that pop game RC has been calling for. He was more involved than Allen Lazard after it was the opposite last week.
The trouble is, I don't know if there's a way to predict who is going to do better from week to week. Rodgers is distributing the ball to whoever is open. He has a power back, a speed back, a possession receiver in Adams, a deep ball guy in MVS, and an intermediate big body guy in Lazard. It's just too many unique weapons for a defense to stop, and Rodgers works the matchups like a magician.
It's fantastic for real football and makes them tough to stop, but it's maddening for fantasy. Davante Adams (6-44-1/7) is no longer the only option they have to throw to. Now if you clamp down on him the Packers can hit you elsewhere.
If I had to guess, I'd say I like Lazard better than MVS this week against a good Cleveland secondary, but I'd take MVS in the final two games against the weakened Minnesota and Detroit units. It's just a hunch though.
*RC NOTE: MVS is on the COVID list…if he is out for Week 16, then Lazard will be a WR2 projection this week v. CLE.
--Bravo Tyler Huntley (28-40 for 215 2 TD/0 INT, 13-73-2)! I've been raving about Huntley since this preseason, and I was so glad to see him perform well here. This is what I had to say about him from the Ravens 3rd preseason game:
“Huntley does a damn good Lamar Jackson impression. He's got the same build, a similar throwing motion, and even moves similarly. It's honestly hard to tell them apart at times. He's not quite as fast or explosive/elusive as Lamar, but he moves around well enough to be a threat and is shockingly throwing a really nice ball. Both times I've seen him now he was aggressively attacking downfield, throwing over the middle and in between coverage, showing a powerful arm and really good accuracy. He does have the occasional misfire and sometimes has issues with touch throws on seam routes but that's about it. He looks really good and is the perfect backup for Lamar because the Ravens don't have to change the offense at all.
If Lamar were to go down Huntley might be a shock QB1. That's how impressed I have been with him.”
The mainstream would call me sacrilegious for saying this, but I'm going to say it anyways...Huntley is a better pure QB than Lamar. When I say QB I mean as a passer, knowing where to go with the ball and when, having the accuracy to fit it into tight windows...that kind of thing. And Huntley is absolutely better at those things than Lamar.
Now I'm not trying to bash Lamar here. He's still a very good player and he does a lot of things well. But he can be contained at times if you can get him trailing or keep him bottled up in the pocket. He's a dynamic playmaker when the whole playbook is open to him, but limit his options a little and he can be stopped.
Huntley is much less prone to that because he is a QB first and a runner second. Now he's not the greatest at either one, but the combination makes him dangerous. Should he be a starting QB in the league? Maybe. I think he could. But a team would have to build the offense similarly to Baltimore's. Huntley would have been a perfect QB for Urban Meyer.
So how will Huntley fair this week against the Bengals? The Bengals have a pretty good defense, but it's not so good that they will crush him. I think he's a QB1. He should have somewhere in the neighborhood of 240 yards passing and maybe 50 rushing to go along with 2 TD's. Think a mix of Jalen Hurts and Justin Fields. If you're in need of a good streamer this week, Huntley is likely the best available assuming Lamar can't go.
--Speaking of Lamar, he hasn't practiced so far this week with his ankle injury. The Ravens are calling it day-to-day. My best guess is he'll play if he possibly can. This game against the Bengals is too big. If I was running Baltimore I'd have enough confidence in Huntley to play him and let Lamar rest, but they probably don't view it that way. We'll have to wait for more reports about Lamar's availability. Whether he practices today or not will say a lot.
--Latavius Murray looks healthy again and is back to a full split with Devonta Freeman, although as good as Murray looked he might take a 60-40 lead soon. This was the best I've seen him all year. He's got no agility left but he's got enough burst north and south to still be an effective grinder inside. If you must start a Baltimore RB out of desperation it's Murray you want now not Freeman.
--What happened to Rashod Bateman (1-5-0/2)? Rasul Douglas happened. He shut down Bateman with ease. That forced Huntley to try and attack Eric Stokes with Marquise Brown (10-43-0/14) and you see how that went. Brown caught a ton of short passes, but it didn't add up to much. This is what I mean about GB's secondary. They are already arguably the best group and Alexander is still out. It's going to be a no-fly zone in the playoffs. Bad news for the Rams and Buccaneers.
IDP Notes
--Geno Stone (7 tackles, 1 tfl) had himself a nice game at safety while Chuck Clark was out with COVID. He's your typical solid Baltimore safety, nothing special that I can see, but well trained and athletic enough to play. Unfortunately now he's been added to the COVID list, so we'll see if either he or Clark can get cleared. He's likely headed back to the bench regardless.
Snap Counts of Interest
49 = Lazard
41 = MVS
39 = Aaron Jones
23 = Dillon
39 = Freeman
29 = Murray
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 15: Colts 27, Patriots 17
This was a perfect opportunity for the Patriots to put a stamp on their sudden rise to AFC dominance…but instead they laid an egg. Indy took a 14-0 lead right away, aided by a blocked punt TD. The Colts were fired up, well-planned, and subdued the Patriots…for about a half, and then they did what Frank Reich typically does – tries to sit on a lead, stops everything that was working previously, and goes into a shell to try and rope-a-dope to a victory.
The Colts shutout the Patriots for 3+ quarters, and then they let the Pats walk back into the game and suddenly the Colts shutout and three-score lead was gone…now, it was Colts only up three points, 20-17, with 2+ minutes left. Jonathan Taylor broke through an over-stacked-to-stop-the-run defense and flew to a 67-yard TD run and put the game away. The Colts were the better team most all game, but they froze up and almost let it get away.
But the Colts did win, which then kicked over some interesting dominoes in the AFC…the Pats were suddenly out of the #1 seed 24 hours later and the Bills were right up their backs for the AFC East again. Indy was on shaky playoff ground going in, but now rises to (8-6)…really looking solid for the wild card and with a shot to win the AFC South. We project a (10-7) finish and a probable wild card.
New England falls to (9-5) and has a huge game Week 16 vs. BUF, where they will lose (we project) and thus throw the AFC East into the air and potentially a Patriots (10-7) finish and a worse wild card seed than Indy, because of this game. NE/BUF (one a division winner, the other the wild card), Indy, LAC are the very probable AFC wild cards.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- My main scouting attention from this game fell on Mac Jones (26-45 for 299 yards, 2 TDs/2 INTs). My Spidey senses kept saying all game – not that good (from an – is he a high-end QB prospect). Very unimpressive game…when it mattered. He made some throws against the prevent late but prior to that he was all over the place. I keep getting a Taylor Heinicke vibe off of him. Perfectly cromulent NFL QB, but not a ‘put the game on my back’ kinda QB…just a game manager. Which is fine but is this the next Tom Brady? I’m not so sure.
Yes, there is more time for him to develop and he’s just a rookie. He will grow…in theory. But the tools to be great just aren’t obvious/there. You could see ‘it’ in an instant with Joe Burrow or Justin Herbert. Josh Allen had all the tools, but we just never thought he’d put them together…he did. Kyler looked great in an instant, but you wondered if he was too short. With Mac…I see he’s savvy enough, but is going to be good or great or elite? I just don’t see it. He’s OK/fine. I wouldn’t rule out ‘peaked as a rookie’.
I know Belichick is a genius and they are going to hide (rightfully so) behind their run game…but when push comes to shove, in a big game…Mac Jones isn’t ready yet. He’s not going to make terrible decisions, like Zach Wilson is right now…but he’s not going to be a force either, like Wilson has shown flashes of. The Pats big win of 2021 was beating Buffalo in a weather mess game where Jones threw 3 passes. I don’t want to give Jones too much credit for being ‘solid’ where most rookies struggle…or used to. These days they enter the NFL and can be solid/good right away…no more 3-year-plans. Credit to Mac, he’s done well…but the talent level ceiling is questionable. For FF, I’m not interested long term.
-- Rhamondre Stevenson (10-36-0) got his crack at the full workload with Damien Harris out, and it was an FF-flop. He looked OK, just Indy was playing at a high level.
When Harris returns, it’s Harris’s backfield 60/40 with Stevenson…rendering both RB2-3 projections.
-- Hunter Henry (6-77-2/8) had a game. He is definitely becoming Mac Jones’s go-to. Henry doesn’t look fast or special, but he does have the connection with Mac…so, no reason to fight it. Teams are going to start overplaying him near the end zone…if they’re smart…which means, probably not. Kyle Pitts gets double teamed…not Hunter Henry 2021.
-- Jonathan Taylor (29-170-1) was about to have a 28 carry, 103 yards rushing mild FF-dud before he sprung loose at the end of the game for that 67-yard TD. The Patriots did bottle him up/contain him, in a sense, all game…until the end.
I only mention this for the road ahead – it’s not easy to run on New England, when they want to shut you down. Which may lead to a James Robinson dud Week 17. Week 16…the Bills aren’t a running team so NE won’t play them tight like they would Indy.
-- Teams have a hard time passing on NE (the #3 pass defense by yards per game), and an especially difficult time for opposing #1 WRs because J.C. Jackson (3 tackles, 3 PDs) has become a top NFL shutdown corner. FYI, he was an undrafted free agent because the NFL is super smart at scouting…I digress…
Week 16 in the cold, possible snow versus J.C. Jackson is not a good place for Stefon Diggs in the key week of the FF playoffs.
Michael Pittman (1-7-0/5) was totally locked down here and got frustrated and then got kicked out of the game for a dust up with Kyle Dugger (5 tackles). Pittman’s season has been diminishing after a great 1st-half…now teams are doubling and tripling him because no one is afraid of Hilton-Pascal-Doyle.
-- The Colts-DST is running 3rd-best in FF scoring this season…despite not being a classic top/shutdown defense. They’ve been great with the turnovers and D TDs.
Can you trust them in Week 16 at Arizona?
It’s not a play I would count on…in a dome, vs. Arizona coming off a humiliating loss, a top QB to face…it’s not optimal, but you can never count Indy-DST out.
Snap Counts of Interest:
51 = JTaylor
10 = Hines
55 = H Henry
17 = Jonnu
38 = Bolden
31 = Stevenson
**College Football Metrics 2022…new season signups coming in January 2022**
The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!
The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…
Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 15: Lions 30, Cardinals 12
This was a Detroit-dealt ass-kicking from the opening bell. Even if Arizona had caught some breaks early, it wouldn’t have mattered. In every aspect of this game, on both sides of the ball, Detroit was the better team.
Consider that last statement in the light of many thinking Arizona was the best team in football a week or two or three ago. Sometimes good teams get beat by inferior ones because of early turnovers or ill-timed BS penalties extending drives – not here. Detroit out-played, out-schemed, out-toughed a previously tough, and machine-like Arizona team. It was a sight to behold.
Could it have been ‘one of those weeks?’ sure…but I think it’s more Arizona is fading to the finish (like Buffalo), they may have peaked too soon and lost too many key players along the way (Watt, Hopkins, etc.). But it’s also that Detroit is way better than given credit. Detroit is (2-11-1) now. Think of how many near-miss wins they’ve coughed up last second this season. If I gave Detroit +3 points in every game they played this season, instead of (2-11-1) they would be (6-7-1) and more respected. I’m not saying it’s a great Detroit team but it’s not the joke we all tend to think. When you see ‘Detroit’ you should think of them as in the mediocre range with teams like Pittsburgh, Tennessee (sans Henry), the 49ers, Miami, Cleveland, Philly, Minnesota, etc. – and not with the Jets, Jags, Texans, Falcons crowd.
If I’m right, the Lions are the best bet of Week 16 with points at ATL (if Goff is back).
Arizona is now (10-4) and will be lucky to hold on to win the NFC West. Everything you want to know about the Cardinals will be told to us by their next two games. Facing Indy and Dallas, two of the better teams in the NFL…two of the top 10 teams in the NFL. They could lose both and have a total collapse into the wild card race. They could rally and physically go out and dominate both and reestablish themselves as that top NFL team from a few weeks ago.
My guess/projection – they don’t have the toughness to go beat Indy and Dallas. They might split, but I don’t trust Kingsbury and Kyler in clutch spots yet. It’s too close to call between LAR and Arizona to win the NFC West right now. Let me see how Arizona responds vs. Indy this week…I think they will rally to win that one, and then we’ll see. If they get throttled by Indy this week…Arizona is all but cooked for 2021…they’ll make the playoffs but lose to a mentally tougher team.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The MVP of this game, without a doubt, was RB Craig Reynolds (26-112-0, 1-5-0/1). He’s the best RB on either team…so, of course, it makes a ton of sense he’s been on the practice squad most of the season.
Reynolds ran through and around the Cardinals defense like a seasoned pro…like a smart/savvy/talented enough RB, like an Elijah Mitchell. All he needed was a chance. I think with his last performances, Reynolds has moved from ‘cute/capable fill-in’ to – the best all-around back the Lions have, right up there with D’Andre Swift. If Swift is out again, and he probably is, then with Jamaal Williams (DNP) returning…Reynolds will be the top back for Week 16 for Detroit. I initially thought Detroit/Anthony Lynn might push Jamaal, the veteran, right back into the starting role and undercut Reynolds…but I think Dan Campbell has taken over the offense from Lynn (happened a few weeks ago, publicly announced) and he won’t allow that to happen.
If I see Jamaal active this week, no Swift, and Reynolds starting this game full – then I will consider Dan Campbell as a Coach of the Year candidate and the future of the Lions is bright because Campbell is going his own way and not letting NFL players be royalty for the sake of it when there are other guys underneath who are clearly better players. I think Campbell will reward Reynolds Week 16, but not a sure thing…’the way things run around here’ is a gravitational pull for all NFL head coaches. Campbell has hope to be different.
-- The other MVP of this game…Jared Goff (221-26 for 216 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT). Facing one of the better defenses in the NFL…what was arguably the best defense the 1st-half of the season, Goff tore right through them.
Goff has 9 TDs/2 INTs in his past 4 games. On a turned upside-down Lions team all season, Goff has completed 67.0% of his passes and has thrown for 17 TDs/8 INTs this season…working with pure garbage at WR the 1st-half of the season.
Now, Weeks 13-15, Goff has a more decent WR group, and it shows…
I’m not an Amon-Ra St. Brown (8-90-1/11) fan, as a scout, but he’s a capable slot/good hands WR that’s piling on the targets and numbers.
St. Brown has more space to work since Josh Reynolds (6-68-1/6) has come in and given the Lions a legit downfield WR threat defenses have to account for. Reynolds has 68 or more yards in a game in three of his first 4 games as a Lion. If you take Reynolds 4 games in Detroit time 4 for a projected (old) 16-game season. His pace would be: 64 catches, 1,036 yards, 8 TDs.
-- I’m not worried about Kyler Murray (23-41 for 257 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 4-3-0) beyond always worrying about any FF player who hasn’t been great two weeks in a row. I don’t see anything glaringly wrong on tape, but 3 TDs/5 INTs in his last 4 games is worthy of some worry.
He should be fine for Week 16…but if Indy controls the ground and reduces Kyler’s possessions, it could be another ‘meh’ Kyler at the very wrong time.
-- No DeAndre Hopkins this week, the first time Arizona has played with Hopkins out the rest of the season for sure. So, where did Kyler go to as his best options?
Looks like Christian Kirk (9-94-1/12) is the winner in the Hopkins-gone sweepstakes. Kyler has spent three years with Kirk, and Kirk is really good, so it only makes sense.
A.J. Green (4-64-0/8) still have a weird connection…every other pass they are not on the same page. AJG is more a nice #2, not the alpha #1 here.
Zach Ertz (6-74-0/11) is likely to take more target share too as a reliable over the middle pass Kyler loves to utilize. Maxx Williams was emerging in that before he got hurt, and now Ertz can take it to another level.
Antoine Wesley (3-19-0/8) got good targets here, but he’s a #3 WR…#4 most favored option in the WR-TE mix.
Rondale Moore (3-9-0/3) is fading into the background…another promising, small-speedy WR weapon gone to waste under Kingsbury. Rondale is being ‘Isabella’d’.
-- James Conner (8-39-0, 2-31-0/2) didn’t look hurt. He just looked ineffective running the ball in key spots, as is his norm…and then the game script got away, and the run game was ditched. It’s a risk every week, but the Cardinals are so into Conner you just FF-play him every week without question.
-- Well, we waited weeks to use Arizona-DST vs. Detroit, and we got smacked in the face for it. It seems to be the way of the DST world…everything is going along as planned, and then a big underdog rises up and plants 30+ on the previously dominant favorite.
I don’t know how we can trust Arizona-DST vs. Indy in a dome, and vs. Dallas in a dome. Two of the best O-Lines with good QBs. It’s still a good defense but given their recent run and the two opponents ahead…there’s better out there to work with.
-- Detroit-DST vs. ATL this week is probably as hopeful as ARI-DST v. Indy.
When the Lions have faced weak QBs, they’ve been good…
Week 4 at CHI = allowed 24pts
Week 10 at PIT = allowed 16pts
Week 11 at CLE = allowed 13pts
Week 12 v. CHI = allowed 16pts
Week 14 at DEN = allowed 30pts…not good, but then followed that holding ARI to 12pts.
They’re susceptible to good running teams…that’s not Atlanta Week 16 or Seattle Week 17.
Snap Counts of Interest:
72 = Kirk
64 = Wesley
56 = AJG
20 = Rondale
12 = Isabella
33 = Conner
29 = Edmonds
49 = Brock Wright
29 = Zylstra
42 = Reynolds
12 = Igwebuike
06 = J Jefferson
**College Football Metrics 2022…new season signups coming in January 2022**
The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!
The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…
Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 15: Saints 9, Bucs 0
Wow, NFL head coaches are super important…whatever will the Saints do without the great Sean Payton! Just go and shutout Tom Brady while the Saints were missing their two top offensive linemen…no biggie.
Some teams just have another team’s ‘number’ and the Saints are now (4-0) in the regular season vs. Tom Brady/TB.
Missing head coach for New Orleans, missing key O-Linemen for the Saints too, then a rash of missing weapons for Tampa Bay. It was ‘one of those games’ you cannot foresee as a possible outcome if you computer simulated it a thousand times. The Bucs got all banged up and struggled to match the intensity of the Saints…and this was really never in doubt as New Orleans is one of the toughest/grittiest teams in the NFL.
The Saints save their season with a win that everyone projected as a loss. They climb to (7-7) and tied for the #7 seed wild card spot. The schedule is favorable ahead – MIA, CAR, at ATL. They could run that table, or at least get two of 3 games. The Saints are likely to get to 9 wins but would need help from there since they have no wins over any NFC wild card team, just a loss to Philly if it comes down to anything between those two. If the Saints can get to 10 wins, they’ll likely slide in…9 wins probably has them as the first team ‘out’ of the wild card spots.
As big a win as it was for New Orleans, it was a devastating loss for the Bucs. TB (10-4) should run the table from here (CAR-NYJ-CAR) and get to (13-4) but this loss has opened the door for Green Bay (11-3) to get to 13-14 wins and get the #1 seed. GB holds the tiebreakers of common opponents over TB. If Green Bay is the #1 seed, then very likely Tampa Bay will have to go to Lambeau Field in January to get back to the Super Bowl…not ideal.
My pick for the NFC rep for the Super Bowl: whichever teams gets the #1 seed between TB and GB, and that’s likely GB now.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Obviously, the big FF news from this game was the injury wave that hit the Bucs offensive weapons. The biggest/worst one being the one to Chris Godwin (6-49-0/7).
The Bucs (assumingly) shift Tyler Johnson (4-41-0/7) into the Godwin role…which doesn’t mean he’ll equal Godwin’s expected outputs week-to-week, but it does mean that in any given game…he might, which makes him valuable for Week 16-17.
Antonio Brown returns, just in time, to his old role as the outside flanker. I don’t expect a lot of ‘rust’ or slow bring back on AB – I assume he hits the ground running, as he did his very first week with the team. But now he’s been there two seasons, so he’s instantly back to a PPR WR1 threat immediately. If I have to make a call…I bet more on AB heavily involved right away more than brought back slowly. He’s not coming off injury, he’s off suspension…so he should be fresh and ready.
Mike Evans (1-14-0/1) may miss a game too (Wk16), and if he does…I would project Scotty Miller (2-18-0/3) to play a different variation of his role, possibly Breshad Perriman (DNP)…and that not helping Antonio Brown’s upside if Evans is gone for Week 16. You hope with AB that Evans is out there taking heat to free up AB even more. I’d worry, as an Evans owner, that Evans plays this week…but as an 80-90% of normal health decoy more than ‘heavily involved’.
Jaelen Darden (0-0-0/3) is not ready to be in the mix heavily quite yet.
With all these changes, I’m not worried about Tom Brady (26-48 for 214 yards, 0 TD/1 INT). I only worry (slightly) about him against tough/aggressive defenses, cold weather, and if both Godwin and Evans are out. Without Evans Week 16, if it happens, it’s a mild worry but not too scary vs. Carolina. If Evans is back, even as a decoy, it’s all good.
-- Leonard Fournette (9-34-0, 7-33-0/7) was the other big news injury…now on IR for the rest of the regular season.
Ronald Jones (8-63-0, 2-8-0/2) assumes the Fournette role, but because he has bad hands (as a receiver), he won’t produce the same PPR ability, but he should be fine+ on the ground and for TDs. He’ll be an RB1 threat in non-PPR every week, especially Week 17 v. NYJ.
Gio Bernard is already on IR, so the team was forced to sign LeSean McCoy for depth…not to take over a role from RoJo.
Ke’Shawn Vaughn (3-19-0, 0-0-0/2) will get a little more opportunity, but he has not shown to be trustworthy at all…thus, the Bell signing. If Vaughn shows a spark, he can slice into RoJo’s workload…but I’d bet against it at this stage.
-- I figured the Bucs would clamp down on Taysom Hill’s (13-27 for 154 yards, 0 TD/0 INT, 11-33-0) running…and they did. They also halted Alvin Kamara (11-18-0, 2-13-0/6) as well. One part = Bucs defense causing this, the other the Saints missing two top OLs.
Both Taysom and AK should be much better Weeks 16-17 vs. MIA and CAR, both home games and might have their OLs back.
-- Great game for Marquez Callaway (6-112-0/9)…a season-high for catches, targets, yards. Is this a turning point? I don’t think so. I mean, maybe…but by plan the current Saints want to run the ball down your throat and toss passes to the RBs. The WRs are window dressing/props to use every so often. In this game, the Saints couldn’t run the ball because of the opponent…so they did need to throw some and the Callaway connection was working.
Prior to this game, Callaway had the following catch counts in his last 5 games: 2-1-2-1-2. His norm is 1-2 catches for 20-40 yards with a shot at a TD. He’s a WR3.5 with some upside…but if he draws Xavien Howard on MNF Week 16, it won’t help.
-- The Saints-DST gets the shutout, which is a credit to the mass injuries for TB…but also a masterful coaching job by Dennis Allen. It seems silly to think one game gets some assistant vaulted into the coaching hire rumor mill, to the tops of the lists…but that’s exactly what happened here. Dennis Allen just earned himself another head coaching opportunity, I bet, with this shutout. I know Brady would love for him to leave the division. He’s as good an assistant NFL head coach candidate as there is out there.
The Saints D was getting smoked a few weeks ago during the Trevor Siemian era…but under Taysom Hill the team is now (2-1), and the DST has allowed 12.0 PPG in those three games. They haven’t allowed a TD in two consecutive games.
They might push for an extension of that win and DST streak vs. Tua this week. The Saints are the kind of defense that could give Tua fits…a similar type aggressive defense as Buffalo usually clocks Tua with.
It helps that Marcus Davenport (3 tackles, 1 sack, 2 TFLs) is back. Davenport has 6.5 sacks, 9.0 TFLs, and 11 QB hits in 8 games played this year.
Snap Counts of Interest:
70 = Tyler Johnson
58 = Scotty Miller
41 = Darden
22 = RoJo
19 = Vaughn
35 = Vannett
35 = Trautman
22 = J Johnson
**College Football Metrics 2022…new season signups coming in January 2022**
The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!
The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…
Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 15: 49ers 31, Falcons 13
The 49ers fumbled the opening kickoff and set up Atlanta in perfect position for an easy score to take the momentum right away…and the Falcons failed to score -- Cordarrelle fell just short. Pitts fell just short. 4th & goal, Ryan threw to a blanketed Pitts incomplete…turnover on downs. It was a microcosm of this game – the Falcons were not going to beat SF no matter how much charity they got. Not because the 49ers are great, but that the Falcons are one of the worst teams in the NFL…poorly coached, dying QB…they are the Pittsburgh Steelers of the South – I have not seen them play one good game this season, and I marvel at the fact that they have won a game at all this year…much less six of them. They’re actually still in the wild card race! You gotta love the NFL.
The Falcons have a winnable game Week 16 vs. DET, but the Lions are so much better than the Falcons right now. I’ll take the Falcons all day long in that one (assuming Goff plays). Likely, the Falcons lose out and finish (6-11).
The 49ers are now (8-6) and rolling. They’re a solid, somewhat overrated ‘good team’. Critical game at Tennessee on SNF…if they win that game, they should definitely go on to be an NFC wild card, considering they play Houston Week 17. SF will finish with 9-10 wins and be good for a wild card, especially having wins over PHI, MIN, LAR already booked for tiebreaker purposes.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Jeff Wilson (21-110-1, 2-2-0/2) finally cashed in on being the starting RB for SF in 2021. It made no sense to me why he was struggling to put up any numbers in his other Mitchell-is-out starts. He’s looked fine on tape. The SF O-Line wants to spit out 100+ yard rushers every week…but Wilson was failing in his last two starts. Well, he hit here…nothing special, just the guy getting 20+ carries against a weak defense.
Wilson is a threat for 100+ rushing yards in Week 16 if Elijah Mitchell is out again (and he probably will be, but it’s up in the air), but it won’t be so easy against a vastly improved Titans run defense.
If Mitchell is OK/practices in full…then he will see the 15-20+ touches and have a shot at 100+ yards rushing, and Wilson will be a 3-5 touch side note. This is Mitchell’s backfield when he is ready.
-- Really, it’s Deebo Samuel’s (6-29-1, 4-60-0/5) backfield…just Mitchell or Wilson run the ball between the 20s and then Deebo comes in and paralyzes the defense for a rushing TD on his 6-8 carries. It’s the craziest thing…Deebo rushes for an untouched 5-15 yards TD every week and did it again here. But the bonus was, Deebo came off his one catch a game (the prior three games) ways and caught 4 passes.
Deebo is too good to bench, to worry that THIS is the week he DOESN’T rush for a TD and leaves you with a ‘meh’ FF effort otherwise. I’m not questioning it; I’ll just keep riding it.
-- Brandon Aiyuk (1-36-0/2) is the scarier FF entity. There is a concerted effort to get Deebo the ball, through ground and air, and he even threw a pass (to the end zone) in this game (0-for-1). Meanwhile, the great Brandon Aiyuk had two targets and one catch. Aiyuk is a random event WR2-3…and if matchup mattered, he would have had a nice game here. He didn’t. He’s just a random event WR3…more WR2 weeks than WR4 weeks lately, but the WR4 returned this game.
Jauan Jennings (3-28-1/6) was more important to Jimmy G. than Aiyuk here…but JJ is just a week-to-week random event as well. This is Deebo's (and George Kittle’s) world for FF and Aiyuk-Jennings are just on the periphery.
-- Cordarrelle Patterson (11-1-0, 2-5-0/2) has started to flop to the finish as the ‘lead back’ for the Falcons. He’s gone from uniquely used half-RB/half-WR to mostly all RB…all-dull RB.
Patterson has taken 10 or more carries in a game six times this season, his rushing tallies in those games: 54-60-108-78-58-18.
He’s gone from catching 5+ passes a game to 1-3 catches in a game the past five games.
He’s still too good to bench, in most instances…and facing DET Week 16 should be an opportunity. At Buffalo Week 17 might be an issue.
-- Kyle Pitts (4-77-0/7) has one TD this season, which is absolutely unconscionable and should be the cause for firings among the coaching staff…but it won’t be.
Every catch Pitts makes is a miracle of ‘up for grabs’ tightly covered. I remember like only one time he was fully open this year (many weeks ago)…and Ryan hit him on the double move bomb, and Pitts dropped it in stride…probably from cardiac shock that he was open and also that Ryan actually found him in stride.
For the first time I can recall, Atlanta actually did that play that you see run a thousand times a week where the TE (after the snap) just drags (behind the line) from one side of the line to the other, running parallel to the line of scrimmage, losing coverage in the wash of the action, and the TE is wide-open for basically a screen type pass – Pitts ran this route from 5-yards away from the end zone, caught the simple pass, headed to the goal line, and was tackled 6 inches short. They never ran this play (that would work 99% of the time it’s tried) again. It’s the story of Pitts’s 2021 – no imagination, no even simple logic…just 1970s sit-down routes and deep decoy work.
It doesn’t help that Pitts is double covered almost every play, which is why he should be in the MVP discussion. Cooper Kupp doesn’t get doubled, but Pitts does.
-- All the attention on Cordarrelle and Pitts by the defenses has opened up Russell Gage (8-91-1/11) for WR1-2 work of late.
In his last five games, Gage has averaged 6.8 rec. (8.8 targets), 79.2 yards, 0.40 TDs per game. He’s getting WR1 PPR results/outputs and has a decent matchup with DET Week 16 for the party to continue.
Snap Counts of Interest:
56 = Aiyuk
46 = Deebo
25 = J Jennings
05 = Sherfield
50 = J Wilson
03 = Hasty
37 = CPatt
27 = Mk Davis
03 = Ollison
**College Football Metrics 2022…new season signups coming in January 2022**
The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!
The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…
Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.
