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- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 7: Game Analysis: Football Team 25, Cowboys 3
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
I almost forget that Washington went right down the field for a TD first series, the short TD that was called back with a penalty, moments later, on 4th & goal from the 1-yard line Dallas stuffed the play. Washington rammed it down their gullet from the opening drive…Dallas is lucky this score wasn’t worse than it ended up for them.
Whatever the score coulda/shoulda been, it was bad…bad…bad things for Dallas. If I claimed the Dallas Cowboys were the single worst team in the NFL this very second, worse than the Jets – you could not really fight back on it too hard. This Dallas situation has gone from bad to worse to now ridiculous. I’m betting against Dallas like I did the Jets the first several weeks of the season. It’s that bad. This was one of the worst games an NFL team has played this year…right up there with most every Dallas game quarters 1-3 this season and whatever the Patriots did Week 7.
Everyone has theories and consternation but this is Jerry Jones’s fault for hiring Mike McCarthy and Jerry is never going to change so the problem isn’t going to get fixed, it just looks better with Dak Prescott as the window dressing. There is no fixing this Dallas issue of 2020. Dallas will either lose out or maybe pick up a win somewhere along the way. It’s really bad right now…and do you think they’ll be coached up to playing better?
Washington has a chance to win the NFC East. The best defense in the division…which means they have a chance. I still bet on Philly to take it, but WFT has a chance. We project the FTs with 5-6 wins. Six wins could win the division maybe.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Who is Ben DiNucci (2-3 for 39 yards, 0 TDs/0 INTs)? Is there hope with him?
No.
Not at all.
You’re wasting time even asking.
An undersized, stare down the first-read thrower with no real arm strength/arm whip on his throws. He’s the classic butt-kissing, yes sir/no sir, run the plays called head coach’s wet dream of a career 3rd-stringer that the O-C loves…studious, like a coach in the QB room. Gets to work early, stays late. Yada, Yada.
There’s just one problem with all the great employee attributes – he sucks as an NFL prospect.
Week 7 = Start the Eagles defense. Sell the Dallas offense.
Now, before you do all that…
I bet DiNucci is so bad that I bet Garrett Gilbert (recently grabbed off the Browns practice squad) is in finishing this game, and that Gilbert provides a minor spark and people start wondering if Dallas should just go with Gilbert for the ROS.
SuperFlex players – consider grabbing and sitting on Gilbert in deeper roster leagues. He may play from Week 9 on with all the Dallas weapons, Gilbert looked decent in the 2018-2019 preseason, had a decent run in the AAF in 2019. He’s not bad. He is exponentially better than DiNucci…and better than 2020 Andy Dalton. Dallas might even cut or trade Andy Dalton ahead of the trade deadline because ‘why keep him’?
I’m not saying Gilbert is going to be special or anything…just better than DiNucci or Dalton. He might provide a little spark to the team too.
-- The Dallas WRs in this game…
Amari Cooper (7-80-0/7)
CeeDee Lamb (0-0-0/5)
Michael Gallup (0-0-0/2)
I told you last week was the best hope to sell CeeDee hot. Now, you’re stuck.
Gallup is droppable in most redrafts. Lamb might be soon. Amari is a solid WR2 ROS.
If Dalton can get back ahead, it helps all of them to some degree…a lot of junk time coming. Gilbert might have a moment too.
-- The FT’s got up and just ran it out, which is smart…30 combined carries for Gibson-Barber. Thus, J.D. McKissic’s (5-35-0, 2-16-0/2) pass catching talents were not needed. He’s still a viable RB3 hope week-to-week in PPR.
-- McKissic might be a better PPR RB ahead than Ezekiel Elliott (12-45-0, 1-6-0/2)! My, how the mighty have fallen.
You almost just have to ride it out in FF with Zeke…he’s in a David Johnson-like situation – a lot of touches, bad O-Line, hope he gets in the end zone somehow. Since Week 4, Elliott is the #15 PPG RB in PPR…and falling. He’s an RB2 ahead. If you can trade him like an RB1…go for it. He’s not a zero…just not ‘Zeke’ anymore.
If Tony Pollard (8-16-0, 1-6-0/1) was shoved into the starting lineup…he’d have the same problems with the O-Line, QB play, head coach, etc.
-- Logan Thomas (4-50-1/4) is a viable TE for FF on matchups, and this was a good one…and he scored. End of story.
-- Because the Dallas offense is collapsing…don’t get stuck riding Greg Zuerlein (1/1 FG) out of habit. There has to be better options.
-- Cole Holcomb (5 tackles, 1 sack, 1 TFL, 1 PD) may have turned his career arc around with his performance here. He started showing the total linebacker menace he could be with his high-end speed and tackle-ability in this game.
I want to wait to see his snaps, if he starts this week before getting anymore excited. I’ve been burned here before with false starts.
-- I‘m holding the WSH-DST through their Week 8 bye in several cases. They are a sacking machine of a unit but get this schedule ahead the next 4 weeks. Noted in terms of most sacks allowed by the team’s offense…
Week 9 = NYG #8
Week 10 = DET #15
Week 11 = CIN #1
Week 12 = DAL #7
I’ll take that stretch. Then I leave them in Weeks 13-15 with at PIT, at SF, SEA.
Snap Counts of Interest:
34 = McKissic
33 = Gibson
23 = Barber
37 = Zeke
19 = Pollard
39 = Holcomb (70%)
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- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 7: Game Analysis: Cardinals 37, Seahawks 34 OT
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
It felt like Seattle was going to run away with this game early. Right down the field unfettered for a quick TD, 7-0 Seattle lead. It wasn’t long before it was 20-7 Seattle. A bunch of scoring late 2nd-quarter, but Seattle left the field at the half with a 27-17 lead and you could feel they were the better team.
Then Arizona flipped the script…
Not immediately, they didn’t. It was 34-24 Seattle with 6+ minutes left, and I thought it was all but over watching live. Arizona was able to tie the ball game and send it to OT where I didn’t remember, until the re-watch, that this game appeared headed for a tie at the end of OT, but when Arizona picked off that errant Russell Wilson pass at the end – it was with less than a minute left and then went down in range for the game-winning field goal. I forgot the time was down that far when Arizona got the key turnover.
Nearly 1,100 yards of combined offense, 5 combined turnovers, 98 combined passes, 200 yards rushing for Seattle (and ‘only’ 159 for Arizona) – and Arizona wins and pulls into the NFC West title conversation.
I’m left thinking…is Arizona good…or is Seattle bad…or both good…or both bad? My instincts tell me they are roughly the same team…all offense, based around the QB/passing, and no defense/no pass rush. They will play in shootouts unless they face a team with pass rush pressure…but they can hang in games where they are under pressure because their QBs make plays.
Credit ARI D-C Vance Joseph, he did get a pass rush going here…9 QB hits, 3 picks of Wilson.
Seattle has the worst pass defense in the NFL because they have no pass rush – in five quarters of play they hit Kyler Murray ZERO times. I almost never see games with ZERO QB hits. It just happened here…and thus Kyler with a monster effort.
All the lopsided pressure data…and Arizona barely won…that’s what scares me on getting excited about their offense/team when tougher defenses face them, but it could just be me worrying to worry. Typical FF GM.
Arizona is now (5-2), goes on a bye, and then is about to get tested by their schedule. They start to play more physical teams and playoff hopefuls and head to unfriendly weather in the weeks to come. This was a key/pivotal win…10 wins and a possible NFC West title are in range for Arizona now, but so are 8 wins and missing the playoffs. I think the schedule circumstances have flipped in their favor ahead. They are very likely getting to 9-10 wins (Chris Bilello was right again!). Ugly as it might be sometimes, they are winning and that’s all that matters.
Seattle is a better version of Arizona, they just happened to lose this game…that they could’ve won many times over. The Seahawks have a similar schedule ahead – not as easy, a few more physical teams, weather comes into play with NFC East matchups to play Week 12 on. Seattle is good for 10-11 wins, and I’d give them the nod for the NFC West over Arizona…Weeks 12-15 facing PHI-NYG-NYJ-WSH is a gift from the schedule gods.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The most impressive thing I saw in this game, besides D.K. Metcalf’s tackling ability, was Chase Edmonds (5-58-0, 7-87-0/7).
I don’t mean that in the typical way we all say, like…’Edmonds is better than Drake, he should take over…stupid Kingsbury!’ Edmonds is a ‘C’ grade status in the universe because he’s a clear backup that many smarties say should be starting…but they only say that because Kenyan Drake (14-34-0, 1-7-0/2) has been so disappointing.
This is a key concept to keep in mind for all that I’m about to write – the experts and fans who yammer about wanting Edmonds to start, it’s not with true Edmonds-based passion, it’s a Drake punishment statement. It’s a unique way to say, “Drake sucks.” To punish Drake for being a top 18 FF draft pick and being a dud most weeks. At people’s core, they’re not thinking Chase Edmonds is a big name, super talent. He’s not more of a mindset like when JaMycal Hasty or Justin Jackson or Lamical Perine or Alexander Mattison falls into a spot where if they get touches by injury above them to the starter then they might be OK.
What I’m seeing…Edmonds may be the best ‘no name’ RB you can acquire for the future and is useful for the now. Edmonds is a starting NFL talent, with all the tools/a similar or better LeSean McCoy (if prime LeSean entered the NFL in 2020…which wouldn’t be as differencemaking because so much talent in the NFL now). Edmonds has added 5+ pounds of muscle. He is very shifty/agile. He’s a tough enough interior runner. He’s an excellent receiver.
Let me talk about his receiving ability…
In a way, he’s become a de facto 2nd-best receiver on the team. Smooth catcher of the ball, but then excellent in movement after the catch – and he’s not just catching dump passes and screens, he more catching passes downfield as much as short.
The past four games for Edmonds:
Week 4 = 5 catches, 6 targets, 24 yds rec, 1 TD
Week 5 = 5 catches, 6 targets, 56 yards rec. (a rushing TD)
Week 6 = 1 rec., 2 targets, 6 yards
Week 7 = 7 rec., 7 targets, 87 yards
In that same span, Drake has 2 catches on 5 targets for 9 yards.
D.J. Chark hasn’t been as productive receiving as Edmonds the past 4 weeks. Nor Mike Williams. Just two names that popped into my head. I could point out more, you get the point.
Edmonds works as a backup with Drake for the right now in PPR. Obviously, he is going to be really good with Drake out of the picture Week 9 (if).
The player this week, in Dynasty/keeper, I’d focus on making a big deal to acquire is Chase Edmonds. He works for FF as Drake’s backup but if he goes off in Week 9-10, the Drake v. Edmonds debate will really heat up. I want to try to get in ahead of Edmonds playing and making it so obvious. But it’s really a bet on 2021 (with 2020 benefits too)…
Kenyan Drake is a free agent after the season. Drake has shown no reason for any NFL team to make plans or spend big around him. Arizona already paid him $8M for this season…about $7M too much. A one-year option they got suckered into. Chase Edmonds’ emergence allows them not to get suckered again. As soon as the season is ‘2021’, Edmonds will be the main RB on the roster.
Arizona could draft an RB, could sign an RB…they could even bring back Drake, but why? When they have Edmonds in the system for two years, proven at a much lower cost? I mean, they will add guys around any starting RB, but you see the work Drake gets now…that should be Edmonds’ work load for 2021 + all the passing game that Drake is a zero in right now.
Edmonds is going to start in Week 9 and probably Week 10 (and maybe 11), and that’s a speed bump in trade right now…but Edmonds isn’t playing this week (bye), so if you have an RB of the moment…Scott, Gio, Jamaal that you don’t really need this week – it might be the perfect flip of RBs who seem like ‘just for a week’ guys. But our plans are more devious than ‘spot start’ RB. We’re taking the long view, that might end up a short view after Week 9…but worst case a useful RB2-3 in PPR the ROS.
You shouldn’t have to pay a lot for this. He’s not a name people covet, but they do respect. He’s an RB2.5…that I’m willing to pay RB2 money for…or more, if I need to…if I have the hype names of the moment to throw at it to con the current owner.
In redraft, like I said…Scott, Gio, Jamaal, Hasty are guys to consider a similar ‘1-2 week only’ flip for. Add trinkets if the person you’re dealing with is being obstinate.
In Dynasty, whatever you could get away with to make this investment. The current owner may profess love, but it is only because of the moment…the Week 9-10 start, but Drake looms and they know (they think) it’s a limited engagement. I’d pay the price here but don’t enter the room naked to make your lust obvious…worm your way around to it. The more you show you’re interested in a name specifically, the more puckered up the current owner gets.
-- The Kyler Murray (34-48 for 360 yards, 3 TDs/1 INT, 14-67-1) Report…and it is good.
Kyler is ringing up fantasy points like mad, which I love. I also have to keep in mind…everyone is bombing Seattle. Kyler has been fortunate to face Detroit-Carolina-NYJ-Dallas-Seattle the past five weeks. In terms of sack% (sacks per pass attempt), here’s how those five teams rank in the NFL in sack-ability: #26, #32, #24, #20, #29.
When Kyler has time, he’s deadly…most top QBs are…but especially Kyler. That’s why I went ballistic that the Cardinals drafted Isaiah Simmons top 10, instead of a top O-Lineman…which was the single stupidest pick in the 1st-round (and Simmons can’t even get on the field because he doesn’t know what he’s doing…while all kinds of rookies are playing 100% of the snaps).
Here’s the next seven games of sack% defenses the Cards face by NFL rank: #8 (MIA), #11 (BUF), #29 (SEA, now with Dunlap), #22 (NE), #6 (LAR), #10 (NYG), #3 (PHI). Things are about to get rougher.
I’m not saying Kyler shrivels up and dies…maybe, he goes through it and is the league MVP/best player in all of FF 2020 (God, I hope so). I’m just keeping focus on the fact that there’s been some schedule advantage here.
I’m not looking to trade Kyler in Dynasty, but I’m not against it. More NOT looking to now because the more Arizona wins, the more I know Kliff is staying, and this Kyler gets what he wants. Every Arizona win this year…another brick in a firm foundation for Kyler’s near future. If Arizona loses their next 2-3-4 in a row…we start dredging up old fears.
-- Who is going to start for Seattle at RB this week (Week 8)? Everyone is hurt. Everyone might be out…or everyone might be in.
If Chris Carson is out, a big IF, who would it be?
Carlos Hyde (15-68-1, 2-8-0/4) would split with Travis Homer (3-10-0) but Hyde has a hamstring concern and Homer has a knee concern. They are both questionable.
Rashaad Penny doesn’t seem back anytime soon.
It could leave DeeJay Dallas (2-18-0/3) by attrition. And Dallas has shown promise…like if Hyde-Homer had an offspring it would be Dallas.
Just noting…Dallas could be in a position to shock the world if the injury issues all go against Seattle. Watch the practice reports and whether they sign any backs off the street THU-FRI. I’ll be watching.
-- D.K. Metcalf (2-23-0/5) had a bad FF game…after I proclaimed that he’s the greatest FF thing in the world the week prior. That’s how these things work. You need me to bring down a WR in 2020? For a small fee, I’ll write glowingly about them and they’ll be trapped in a bizarre coal mine collapse incident Sunday before kickoff.
Note…DKM had the game-winning (in OT) catch and run 30+ yard TD, but it got called back for a penalty elsewhere.
I’ll buy all your DKM stock, and Tyler Lockett (15-200-3/20) is going to be a huge beneficiary of DKM attention…just like this game. Seattle IS the elite passing game tally team of 2020…not KC, not Buffalo…Seattle. DKM and Lockett ‘win’.
If I LOVE a WR…this is what will happen to them, so beware when I get on a Parris, Diontae, Deebo, Chark, DKM last week or Claypool last week train: https://youtu.be/B40cQXCfooE
-- Is it me or does Andy Isabella (1-7-0/3) fail 90% of the time when he gets a chance at rare touches? It always seems he’s slipping and falling on every incoming pass. Might someone, anyone, maybe even himself…consider changing cleats at some point?
Isabella’s career is sliding down a drain here.
Memba when they drafted Isabella-Butler-KeeSean in the same draft incoming with Kilff…what a trio they had? Ummm…nope.
-- Christian Kirk (5-37-2/8) has been hot as a pistol for FF…I’m selling that all week long if I can. Selling him as a WR2 in a hot offense. Kirk has been a nobody all year, then got one lucky bomb vs. Dallas and then two short TDs here. 500+ yards of offense and Kirk has just 5 catches for 37 yards (but 2 TDs).
Kirk for Edmonds redraft? Done. I’ll take Edmonds. Need a bit more, I can make that happen to go with Kirk to get your Edmonds.
-- IDPs of note…
SEA DB Ryan Neal (9 tackles, 1 TFL) has come out of nowhere to be IDP great. 7.7 tackles, 1.0 TFLs, 1.0 PDs per game the past three games since he’s become a starter. Jamal Adams returning may change all that but it’s working for now.
SEA rookie LB Jordyn Brooks (7 tackles, 1 TFL) got his first major playing time of 2020 and in half a game was in on 7 tackles. Something to watch if he’s going to start soon – a 1st-round LB who is a talent, a master at TFLs.
Haason Reddick (11 tackles, 1.0 sacks, 3 TFLs) has been reborn with Chandler Jones out. 8.0 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 2.5 TFLs the past two weeks playing more snaps as an OLB pass rusher, which he was great at in college. Why they tried to convert him to ILB, I don’t understand…it wasted years of his career.
Snap Counts of Interest:
51 = Edmonds
34 = Drake
42 = Darrell Daniels
21 = Arnold
41 = Hyde
16 = Homer
15 = Carson
12 = Dallas
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- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 7: Game Analysis: Chargers 39, Jaguars 29
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
This game was jaw dropping after re-watching what really happened.
The Chargers jumped out to a 16-0 lead and it felt like the Chargers were going to win 50+ to nothing. Right before the half, the Jags got some momentum and closed the game to 16-14 LAC by the half. Right out of halftime, the Jags blocked a punt and took it in for a TD and all of a sudden, the Jaguars were winning 21-16.
Justin Herbert was about to put the hammer down.
LAC scored a TD to take the lead back 22-21. The Jags scored in response to take the lead 29-22. Herbert came back with a 70-yard TD to tie it 29-29, then Herbert scored again to cap off a 20-point 3rd-quarter and take a lead they’d never relinquish. The Chargers won by 10 but felt like they were 100+ points better than the Jags. I’m not sure how Jacksonville stayed in this game so long.
The Chargers are (2-4) and are the best 2-win team in the NFL. Imagine if Herbert had started right away… LAC has two wins and 4 close losses they should’ve won. It’s a potential (6-0) team masquerading as a (2-4) sad sack.
I bet against the Chargers winning 7.5 games this season – and I am thinking I’m going to lose that now. We see the Chargers getting to 8 wins now…with 9 possible, and 7 possible. Come on Anthony Lynn, save me!!
Jacksonville is done. Doug Marrone is trying to get fired but hasn’t been able too yet. He’s probably wondering what is taking so long. The team went all in on Gardner Minshew as their franchise QB for 2020, starting midway 2019…and six weeks into this season, Marrone is hinting about benching him. Yeah…Minshew is the problem. Got it.
If Minshew loses his job before Marrone, I’ll never endorse Jacksonville for anything ever again.
The Jags are going to quit on Marrone, because he quit on Minshew…and Minshew is now going to quit on Marrone. If Minshew had pass protection he might really soar from here just doing what he wants racking numbers, but on every play it seems he’s about to get sacked 2-3 steps into his 5-step drop every time now. 5.0 sacks, 9 QB hits for the Chargers this game. The Marrone Jaguars are ‘finished’…New York Jets bad, or worse. They have the young talent but Marrone is killing it…like 2019. It’s over.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Just a quick note…Justin Herbert (27-43 for 347 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT, 9-66-1) continues to be the best rookie QB I’ve ever seen play his rookie season. Only Patrick Mahomes and maybe Russell Wilson are better NFL QBs right now/2020. Herbert is like fine art to watch play QB. He has it all.
Watching Herbert breeze through his rookie year with bad coaching…I’m starting to wonder if Tua is not as good as Burrow/Herbert, and he isn’t, but that still might mean Tua is a top 15 QB in the NFL day one because the new age rookies are better than most all existing QBs instantly.
Anthony Lynn may beat ‘it’ out of him, but right now…as I’ve been saying since like Week 3…I’ve never seen anything like it/Herbert…not Baker’s 1st0-year. Not Burrow, although he has been great. Definitely not Kyler’s first year, which was promising.
-- Gardner Minshew (14-27 for 173 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT, 4-21-0) pales by comparison to Herbert, but Minshew is a cautionary tale for Herbert…because Minshew looked fabulous early on/as a rookie. Surreal at times. Now, he’s fighting off Jake Luton or Mike Glennon less than a year later.
When you put great QB talent with awful, old-school, controlling, ogre head coaches…it can kill the QB. It’s like letting ‘Russ cook’. How many times have you heard that this year? Did anyone in the NFL ever stop to think what that statement really means? It really means Pete Carroll is so incredibly stupid he had the NFL’s best QB under wraps for years on purpose. It wasn’t Russ not letting Russ cook. It wasn’t the fans doing it. Who was it that was not allowing said cooking? Why aren’t there ramifications for this?
Imagine at your workplace you were such an awful supervisor that you drove down sales and profits with a business, doing so with employees that everyone thinks has talent and profitability – you’d be demoted or fired quickly upon the multiple year failed results. So how does Pete Carroll get away with this?
Football Society: Oh, man…good ole Pete is 114 years old but he looks like he’s 57. The players love his enthusiasm!!!
Me: Yeah that’s great, but let’s get back to the not letting the thing that everyone knows can cook not cook issue…it doesn’t trouble you?
Football Society: Nope! Pete had Will Ferrell at practice once. It was hilarious. We all laughed. Pete’s so young at heart!!
Me: But the cooking thing…in order for people to yell about ‘letting Russ cook’…it means something was not allowing him to cook prior. Who was the cook-blocker? Wasn’t it Pete Carroll? Shouldn’t that be grounds for termination? What else might he not be allowing to cook that he should?
Football Society: I mean, the players love him. He won a Super Bowl you know!
Me: Well, so did Barry Switzer…by letting Jimmy Johnson’s players cook. So, no punishment for this cook problem for the last several years with Carroll?
Football Society: Why are you allowing the Russian disinformation to make you hate Pete Carroll?
Where was I? Oh, Marrone has undermined Gardner Minshew and this only ends poorly for Minshew and the team.
-- If Minshew is benched, D.J. Chark (1-26-0/7) is Terry McLaurin with Dwayne Haskins, or Darius Slayton with Dan Jones, or worse. Probably worse.
The good news…Minshew targeted Chark more than any other Jaguar this game.
The bad news…it resulted in one catch, and that was a chore of a completion.
There should be garbage time here, but we can’t get that…but note the Chargers have a good defense/cover people…and they doubled him a bunch. Some of this was LAC…a lot of this is Doug Marrone has killed off this team.
-- No such issues for Herbert getting the ball where he wants to. However, some of who you think should thrive in this passing game are not.
And I see issues with them…
1) Mike Williams (1-4-0/3) – Justin Herbert is basically throwing the ball to whomever he wants at will. But somehow his throws to Mike Williams look way off base. Actually, in this game – Herbert dropped back and looked everywhere except for where Williams was. It’s almost like Herbert doesn’t want to throw to him.
Based on this game and all the prior Herbert-Williams events…it’s not good. Williams going off only when Keenan Allen left the game a few weeks ago.
2) Hunter Henry (3-23-0/7) looks terrible. No life in his legs. Never open in one-on-one coverage. I don’t know if he’s hurt or just too many knee injuries. He looks a little like Trey Burton to me suddenly…slow and stiff and never open in one-on-ones. Henry has value as the TE here, but his upside has to be capped because he’s working so slow. Maybe he opens up like Gronk did after a few weeks, but right now Henry looks like he’s stuck in molasses.
-- Jalen Guyton (2-84-1/3) is making some big plays/long TDs but not much otherwise. 1-3 targets a game, 1-2 catches, but one of them for big numbers typically (of late).
This could be a blip…or a sign of things to come. It feels like it’s a Kalif Raymond or Marvin Hall 2019 blip. I don’t see any effort by Herbert to up his work/game with Guyton.
-- Donald Parham (1-22-1/1) is a young player who has my interest. A legit 6’8”, fairly athletic TE prospect in 2019 who got shunned by the NFL and then went and had a good run with the XFL, and is now becoming the red zone threat for the Chargers, slowly but surely (which hurts H Henry a little bit).
Parham was kinda wiry framed/built, like a half TE/WR, out of Stetson in 2019. He wasn’t the typical T.J. Hockenson profile that NFL guys crave – the big bulky blockers with average speed and decent hands/non-playmakers. The NFL is so unimaginative, they didn’t explore what they could do with a 6’8” TE who was a playmaker in college and at the East-West Shine practices I watched him work at in 2019.
It’s a long road to ‘making it’ for a guy like Parham, who will be denied opportunity because he’s a UDFA that makes the system look bad if he does well…he must be shown to not be any good because he wasn’t drafted.
Parham has two catches this season (in the last 3 weeks)…both for TDs, from 19 and 22 yards out.
-- Josh Kelley (12-29-0, 5-24-0/5) is averaging 3.1 yards per carry this season.
Justin Jackson (5-12-0, 5-43-0/6) is averaging 3.4 yards per carry this season.
You want to see a minimum of 4.0 ypc. So, why are these guys so low? Do they suck? I don’t think so, I think it’s more the LAC O-Line is so devastated by injury as this season has gone on…it’s right up there with Philly and Dallas as corrupted O-Line situations for guys to try and run behind. It’s almost a lost cause.
It’s going to be a hot hand approach and either ‘hot’ one is going to be stuck scraping for yards due to the O-Line. The two combined for 2.4 yards per carry in this game…against Jacksonville, of all defenses. Not good.
-- One of the reasons the run game was even worse than normal…might have been the presence of the debut of LB Quincy Williams (7 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 PD).
All I can tell you is – the guy I saw on this tape, the Quincy in this game…that’s the guy I thought was going to be a monster LB in the NFL. Quick to the ball and hitting like a ton of bricks. Good to see. He’s back onto the Dynasty Stash reports for sure!
-- One of the helpers for the LAC run game might be WR-who-could-be-an-RB rookie Joe Reed (2-14-1). He is a Deebo Samuel waiting to happen…and lookie here, 2 carries, one near the goal line…easy TD, 7.0 yards per carry on his two touches. Expect to see more Reed ahead because the WR jet sweep can help with the OL issues. It also means you’re going to be hard pressed to get TDs from Kelley-Jackson week-to-week.
Reed will only be lowly used by LAC ahead, I think. No big breakout imminent…but I hope I’m wrong. He’s still in his infancy stage.
-- James Robinson (22-119-1, 4-18-1/6) is the center of the Jags universe. He’s a ‘C’ grade, solid RB prospect that has gotten the coaches so committed to him that they have placed the offense on his back. Something tells me…this won’t end well, hold up, ride off into the sunset with this gem RB1 for years. I’m a sell-high, right now…very high…like a top 5-8 RB in fantasy high valuation.
Do you think this Jags team is built to carry a running back to FF glory? He’d been sagging for weeks before this. Sell the rookie new car smell hot.
In Dynasty, do you think the new coach is going into battle with Robinson as his singular lead…the RB that got Doug Marrone fired, in part?
-- There were moments in this game the Chargers defense looked dominant. They have elements of a dominating defense, and when they get CB Chris Harris back from injury…they might just start hitting that higher level. Like a top 5 best defense in the NFL level. A poor man’s Tampa Bay defense if everyone can stay healthy.
They have an offense now that can help support it.
Snap Counts of Interest:
69 = K Allen
61 = Mk Williams
54 = Guyton
07 = J Reed
62 = H Henry
18 = Parham
38 = Kelley
31 = J Jackson
55 = DJ Chark
48 = Cole
47 = Shenault
16 = Conley
![](/images/articles/2022/7_15df8e62e8_thumb.png)
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 7: Game Analysis: 49ers 33, Patriots 6
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
I can’t substantiate it, but I’ll just say it anyway – this was the worst played game I’ve ever seen from a Bill Belichick team. No joke, with little hyperbole…the Patriots played like they did not care. Their young players are giving an effort, but are mostly all mediocre talents. The veteran players are mailing it in. I saw some defenders in position/running towards ballcarriers in position to make tackles…and then slowing up and not even trying.
Several Patriots players opted-out before the season started. Some are opting out while going through the motions on the field. If I’m Belichick, I have to be totally embarrassed and question why I’d even want to return to this mess in 2021 – he needs to blow everything up and change offensive coordinators and go through a 1-2 year rebuild…all while Tom Brady currently plays better than he has in a decade and the Buccaneers are instantly 10x better than what Belichick has woven together.
The sure sign of NFL coaches going into a decline phase of their career…seeing them pop up in commercials. Belichick’s best work this season has been for Subway, not Robert Kraft.
This Patriots group has one last stand hope…beat Buffalo this week. I think the Pats are going to get obliterated and thus effectively end the season and start giving away veteran next week and using the rest of the season as a training camp for young players. If they beat Buffalo, they’re still ‘in it’ but they aren’t going anywhere even if they do make the playoffs. I think they lose to the Bills and pack it in for 2020 – cutting Cam, trading/cutting Edelman, etc.
Of course, I thought the 49ers were dead after Week 5, after getting crushed by Miami…but they’ve beaten the brakes off of two decent teams since (LAR and NE). The schedule is coming for SF now: at SEA, GB, NO, BYE, at LAR, BUF the next five games could send them to (5-7)/(6-6) and scuffling to get to 9 wins and a wild card. If the 49ers win 11+ games and win the NFC West, with all their injuries, Kyle Shanahan deserves a permanent Coach of the Year award/prize.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Here’s how bad the Patriots played this game…4th/5th-string RB Jeff Wilson (17-112-3, 2-8-0/2) ran for 100+ yards and 3 TDs just in just 2+ quarters of play. He got hurt on his 3rd TD run and left the game right after. He might have had 200+ yards and 5 TDs the way he was running (untouched by a soft NE defense).
When Wilson left, UDFA rookie JaMycal Hasty (9-57-0, 1-16-0/1) continued the party. Hasty looks pretty good and is in a position to be a shock RB1 this week…even against a good Seattle run defense.
I know it won’t be Jerick McKinnon (3-0-0) as an RB1 this week…he died and went to RB heaven about 3 weeks ago.
Tevin Coleman could spoil the Hasty party by being active for Week 8, but he’s probably going to return for Week 9. Hasty has a 1-2 week run in him before Raheem Mostert returns.
-- It’s simplistic, but let’s run with it…Brandon Aiyuk (6-115-0/7) is kinda Deebo like, a more wiry, quicker twitch version. So, with Deebo out it’s likely Aiyuk becomes that WR1-1.5 that Deebo was starting to track into to (until Deebo returns).
The 49ers have no other options at WR, so expect Aiyuk to see 2-4 carries and 10+ targets a game with Deebo out…and gets a very ‘giving’ Seattle pass defense).
-- Cam Newton (9-15 for 98 yards, 0 TD/3 INTs) career probably comes down to the Week 8 game at BUF. If the Pats win and Cam is good…the season is temporarily saved. If Cam throws 2-3 picks in a crushing defeat, Belichick will trade him or cut him Monday after Week 8’s game.
A big loss to the Bills means the Patriots season is done and they might as well see what they have with Jarrett Stidham (6-10 for 64 yards, 0 TDs/1 INT), which doesn’t look like a whole lot at this point.
Stidham has completed 48.1% of his passes with 1 TD/4 INTs so far in his career…this thing looks like it is going down fast.
-- The Patriots have nothing exciting to throw to, is part of the problem…
Jakobi Meyers (4-60-0/6), I believe, with the way he played this game…has earned a starting role. The only WR that I’ve seen play with any juice for NE in weeks.
Meyers is a very sound, savvy, limited athlete WR. He has some Travis Fulgham upside…where the opportunity presents itself and he seizes it as a professional WR – but this passing game is nothing that will catapult WRs to fantasy glory. If it ever does, it could be Meyers this week. Cam was leaning on him hard for a stretch before everything died.
-- The best weapon on the Patriots’ offense is Damien Harris (10-58-0, 1-12-0/1). I think we’re going to see a heavy workload from Harris this week, as their only hopes to control/defeat the Bills. Harris is the future of the Pats backfield. And the future might not be so congested next year when the rebuild removes Rex and James White among others.
-- Two weeks ago, I declared the 49ers-DST dead…and since then they have two excellent FF events back-to-back. You can’t use them v. SEA this week…not Week 9 v. GB…nor Week 10 at NO…nor Week 11 on BYE. Are you prepared to hold them through the next 4 weeks to get to the LAR-BUF matchups Weeks 12-13? From Weeks 8-13…not a confident use game in there.
If they shut down Seattle, I have to fall on my sword and declare that I don’t know anything about football…
The 49ers, prior to the last two weeks have been giving up a ton of points for their last 10+ games going back to 2019.
Snap Counts of Interest:
48 = Byrd
41 = Meyers
31 = Edelman
11 = Harry
25 = Burkhead
21 = Harris
10 = White
37 = Wilson
15 = Hasty
12 = McKinnon
![](/images/articles/2022/7_4d4cda85ad_thumb.png)
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 7: Game Analysis: Lions 23, Falcons 22
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
This just felt like a ‘no one wants to win this game’ type of contest between these two…felt it during the live watch Sunday and again on the rewatch. Two mediocre/below average teams duking it out and it came down to bad ref calls and a shocking last second TD pass to take the deserved win away from the Falcons, thus ending their season effectively, and pumping life into the Lions season.
The Lions are now (3-3) and in the playoff race but definitely don’t feel or look like a playoff team, but in 2020 ‘who knows’? If they can beat the Colts this week, they got a shot to get to (8-8)/(9-7) with their schedule ahead. Something tells me they lose this week and then 5-6-7 wins is more the right projection.
Atlanta blew a golden opportunity. With a win they would have been (2-5) and trying to stay alive…but it’s over. Their schedule after their Week 10 bye is so brutal, they’re smart to just cash out before the trade deadline…and the rumor mill is already buzzing. We could see 2-3-4 Falcons dealt this next week…as ATL ends up a 3-4 win team this season in the end.
Fantasy Player Notes
-- I guess D’Andre Swift (9-27-1, 4-21-0/5) is the Lions main RB now…a strong RB2 for fantasy ahead?
Swift dominated their first scoring drive with 4 carries for 27 yards, including a nice 3-yard TD run. I was thinking Swift was going to have a huge game with the early production against a really good v. the run ATL defense.
Swift saw 5 carries for 2 yards the rest of the game.
10 +/- carries and 3-6 catches a game is where he is headed, and is the team’s best goal line back because everyone knows if AP is in they’re not likely throwing the ball.
Swift is a strong/stable play for FF ahead in PPR especially.
-- A tale of two TEs who had good output from this game…
1) T.J. Hockenson (5-59-1/6) took advantage of a terrible-against-the-TE defense by Atlanta. TJH is still a lump of nothing to me as an NFL receiving talent. Just plays a lot of snaps and is there for things. If the Lions never got a shot at that late game TD pass (to TJH) then it’s another useless game by the Hock for FF.
2) Hayden Hurst (6-68-0/7), however, is showing signs of an upswing. 50+ yards in a game in three of his last 4 games. 3 TDs in his last 6 games, and no TD here but was wide open for a 22-yarder but Matt Ryan threw the ball 6 inches too far for Hurst to grab.
Hurst is a for-sure stable TE1…Hockenson is a random TE1 if he can get a TD.
-- Russell Gage (6-54-0/7) is perking back up again. After a hot start to the season he cooled way off Weeks 3-5, but is averaging 5.0 rec. (5.5 targets), 59.5 yards, 0.0 TDs per game the past two games under Raheem Morris.
Not anything hot for FF but is rising back up as an option/on-the-radar in deeper leagues/PPR.
-- Had Matt Stafford (25-36 for 340 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) not gotten the ball back with one minute left, he would have logged ANOTHER under 300 yards passing game and he would have had NO TD passes here…in a game vs. a weak ATL pass defense.
Stafford is a back-end QB2 nowadays. What a terrible decline from his stellar 2019 pace.
-- DET DE Romeo Okwara (3 tackles, 2.0 sacks, 3 QB hits) is on fire as of late.
In his last 4 games, he’s averaging: 2.5 tackles, 1.0 sacks, 1.0 TFLs, and 2.5 QB hits per game. He IS the Lions’ pass rush now. Against Indy this week is not favorable for sacks, but then MIN-WAS-CAR-HOU-CHI after that has promise for him to keep up his sack pace.
Snap Counts of Interest:
53 = Gurley
17 = Br Hill
59 = Julio
58 = Ridley
25 = Br Powell
24 = Gage
28 = Swift
19 = AP
14 = Kerryon
![](/images/articles/2022/7_9cf3e09b3d_thumb.png)
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 7: Game Analysis: Saints 27, Panthers 24
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
The Saints scored first and held the lead until the end of the 3rd-quarter. Carolina tied it going into the 4th-quarter, but the Saints hit a field goal with 7+ minutes left. Carolina was last minute driving for a game tying FG attempt…Teddy got sacked and took them from a 50+ yard FG to a 65-yard attempt…in which Joey Slye split the uprights on it but his kick went 64.8 yards, and just went under the crossbar for a heartbreaking ending.
This was a back and forth game. Hard to tell who the better team was…at New Orleans. That’s a sign that: (a) The Panthers are really good among the ‘average’ teams. And (b) The Saints are fading away, getting lucky to win week-to-week. Their run with Brees, et al. is over. The Bucs have surpassed them, among others.
The Saints are now (4-2), lucky they aren’t (1-5). If they lose at TB Week 9…they might not even be a playoff team. I think they will get destroyed in Week 9 and then we’d project them to go 9 wins, 10 wins possible.
The Panthers are (3-4) and that’s about what they are…a .500 team. They are the future of the NFC South from 2022 on. Right now, they’re just a pesky team to play each week…not ready for primetime. 7-8 wins are very possible for Carolina this season…9 wins on the table.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Will Christian McCaffrey (DNP) play Week 8? Probably not, but he looks strong for Week 9. This is the final week of Mike Davis (7-12-0, 5-24-0/5), which is timely because he looks like he’s running out of steam a bit. Just 2.6 yards per carry his last two games…he may be secretly banged up. He was a bit questionable a few weeks ago.
It’s getting so bad at RB that UDFA rookie CB Myles Hartsfield (2-2-0) took the second-most carries in the game for the Panthers. Hartsfield recently converted to RB (a former high school RB star) to help the cause.
In a key goal line situation late, Curtis Samuel (1-5-1, 6-48-0/6) took a goal line TD to tie the game.
If no CMC, Davis is a play Week 8…but worry about underperformance. If CMC can play, Davis may not see the relief touches we think…I believe he needs a week to recoup from his injuries/hits he’s been taking. He’s always been an injury bug guy.
-- Robby Anderson (6-74-0/8) is still the Carolina WR to have.
D.J. Moore (4-93-2/5) scored 2 TDs, and that’s great but he’s just a 3rd-wheel in this passing game now…and it’s working, so no hate for the FF results but the real activity is that Robby is Teddy’s guy and then Custis Samuel has become a de facto go-to in the important spots, a clutch WR …he’s caught like 14-of-14 passes converting 3rd-downs this season. He’s been a low-key MVP for the Panthers.
Moore hit on a 74-yard catch and run TD this game…which is nice. But he had 3 catches for 19 yards otherwise. He’s closer to being 2020 Christian Kirk than you think.
Moore has 6 or fewer targets in four of his last five games…he’s averaged 4.8 catches per game the past 5 weeks.
In that same span, Samuel has 4.5 catches per game…but add in his rushing attempts and he has his hands on the ball 7.2 times per game compared to Moore’s 4.8.
Samuel is getting back on the Flex radar.
-- Marquez Callaway (8-75-0/10) became the new favorite target for Drew Brees…by attrition. No Thomas-Sanders this game.
All I saw was Callaway running basic routes and sitting in pockets of the zone and Brees hitting him for easy catches. No star activity, just ‘available’…and Tre’Quan Smith 4-54-0/4) sucks/is useless so a UDFA rookie WR is now more important in a crisis.
Callaway could be a factor this week if Thomas-Sanders out again, but he’s very questionable with a late-game injury that didn’t look great. I don’t see a star or even a Travis Fulgham or Marcus Johnson-like potential rise to power. It just is what it is, that I see. Will go away quickly when Thomas-Sanders returns.
-- Jared Cook (3-32-1/4) is doing Jared Cook things…lower volume, high propensity for TDs. 3 TDs in his last 4 games. Under 35 yards with just 2 catches each game in three of his last four games. That’s who he is…but with some hope for upside for more when Thomas-Sanders returns, and things get back to more normal for the Saints.
-- Saints DE Marcus Davenport (2 tackles, 1.0 sacks) is back from injury. In his two games played this year…3 QB hits total. He’s getting to the QB playing about 50% of the snaps on defense as a pass rush specialist. He’s showing signs of sacks to come especially against bad O-Line play. Problem is no great matchups for IDP the next 3 weeks: CHI-TB-SF.
-- Is the Saints-DST a sleeper/worthy of attention ahead? Going into the season people felt like this was a top NFL defense…it hasn’t been.
The have value vs. CHI this week but then at TB, SF, at ATL is not great. I’m not seeing any signs that this defense is turning a corner…I see more things to worry about then get excited about.
Snap Counts of Interest:
58 = Kamara
23 = Murray
33 = Mk Davis
22 = Samuel
04 = Hartsfield
03 = Cannon
![](/images/articles/2022/7_f2b0303168_thumb.png)
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 7: Game Analysis: Bucs 45, Raiders 20
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
I’m not sure how this became a blowout. The Raiders had just scored a TD to cut the lead to 24-20 TB with 12+ minutes in the game…and then a quick turnover led to a quick TB score and nine game minutes later the Bucs added 3 TDs and it was nearly a half-a-hundred hung on the Raiders.
The Bucs went full scale Air Raid offense in this game. Tom Brady threw 45 times for 369 yards and only missed on 12 of his passes and most of those missed passes were downfield pushing down the accelerator on the offense. Brady looked like the Brady of 5-10 years ago. Soon…he’s going to get Antonio Brown on top of all of this.
The real loser in this game – Bill Belichick. Tom Brady is going to win his division, be a top passer in the league, and potentially go to a Super Bowl at age 43 basically taking a loser franchise on his back and creating a monster, while Bill Belichick suffers his worst home loss in forever and his new QB cannot complete a forward pass. In the eternal battle of – is it the coach or the QB? The answer is – it’s the QB. Pete Carroll and Bruce Arians, among others, should be tithing to their QBs. Further proof…Mike McCarthy’s resume this very day.
Tampa Bay has one of the highest functioning offenses in the NFL and is about to add one of the greatest WRs of our generation in two weeks. They have two legit NFL starting RBs. They have the best TE of our generation. They have the most menacing defense in the NFL. Arguably…this is the best team, top-to-bottom in the NFL. Week 12 hosting Kansas City is likely a Super Bowl preview. The Bucs are headed to 12-13 wins and a possible NFC #1 seed, which will be important to NOT head to Green Bay or Seattle in January.
Las Vegas just happened to be in the way of this Mack truck. It shouldn’t be held against them. They were toe-to-toe for 45+ minutes here. The Raiders will win 9-10 games and be a tough out in the playoffs.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- A week ago, people were dropping Leonard Fournette (11-50-0, 6-47-0/7). Now, he’s starting in fantasy lineups. After being a ghost for three weeks, all is forgiven…apparently.
My thoughts on Fournette vs. Ronald Jones (13-34-1, 1-2-0/2)…
1) Ronald Jones started, played the first couple series here. Fournette filtered in as the new 3rd-down back early on, a role which I had been predicting was coming for weeks. Jones wasn’t punished or overtaken, per se…just the Bucs were just Air Raiding on Las Vegas and Fournette fits that plan better.
But they may not stop Air Raiding now…
2) Fournette is 10x the receiver RoJo is, so if Brady is calling the shots…Fournette will be in every passing opportunity.
3) We’ve been head-faked before on TB things…on Scottie Miller, on Fournette taking over for RoJo from that time he had that one good 2nd-half earlier this season. Don’t be too cavalier that this one game means Jones is dead and Fournette is all the rage. You’ve been burned by that before…or have you forgotten already in a ‘only last week matters’ FF culture?
4) I’d project this to be a 50-50 split on playing time, some hot hand, Jones more when running is the right matchup, and Fournette in on all passing situations – meaning they are both RB2s with TD hopes and Fournette better for PPR most games.
You want to hold both these guys if possible…if one goes down the other is a STRONG RB1, but like CEH-Le’Veon – I don’t know how you split an RB2 and get an RB1 and RB2 out of it…or even two RB2s. I think we’re about to get an FF-nightmare of ‘guessing’ the right weeks for the right RB and then we’re always a week late on it.
-- Nelson Agholor (5-107-1/9) looks fantastic. I’ve been pointing him out for many weeks, but it’s not just ‘he’s getting the most targets’ – it’s that he’s become reborn as an outside receiver, miscast as a slot WR in Philly.
First series of this game, against a hot TB defense, he came out of the gates with a 28-yard play and a few plays later caught a 20-yard TD…he was hot from the jump.
As I’ve been saying for several weeks – he is the Raiders #1 WR. Agholor has come out of nowhere…it kills Bryan Edwards enthusiasm for the rest of 2020, and possibly into 2021.
The Raiders had an opening for a #1 WR. Edwards won it in training camp, he’s still a very good prospect and you’ll see it that soon enough – but the Raiders don’t have room to support three names in the passing game. It’s Waller-Agholor now. Ruggs-Renfrow-Edwards fighting for scraps.
-- Tom Brady (33-45 for 369 yards, 4 TDs/0 INT) is a no brainer QB1 ahead. When they get Antonio Brown, he’ll have an all-star team to throw to. When A.B. joins, here’s what I think the pecking order will be in Brady’s heart/eyes/targets:
1) Antonio Brown – No question. The only question is…how long before it’s fully up to speed? It may hit right away. It may not really start popping until Weeks 10-11.
2) Gronk (5-62-1/8) – 5.0 rec. (8.0 targets), 70.0 yards, 1.0 TDs per game. Gronk looks better here than he did his last 2-3 years with Belichick. Another sign that Belichick didn’t have the vision for general offense like Brady…and that Josh McDaniels is not a real head coaching candidate. McDaniels held them back. Yet, some owner will shove him $50M to be a head coach next year.
How many times does the QB have to prove they are the ‘the reason’, not the O-C?
It will be the A.B. and Gronk show…and then everyone else fights for big scraps that will be out there.
3) Chris Godwin (9-88-9) – When defenses shift to AB-Gronk, Godwin is going to work with the lesser coverage. If Brady is going Air Raid, he can support AB-Gronk and Godwin.
After the top 3…everything else is as-needed any moment, but not ‘a plan’.
4) Scottie Miller (6-109-1/9) is going to be lost in coverage a lot and Brady seems to have a nice connection with him.
5) Mike Evans (2-37-0/2) – How Evans could fall from grace so fast in this is mind boggling if you think about it. But he’s been a nobody all year with Brady.
2.7 rec. (4.3 targets), 29.3 yards, 0.33 TDs per game = Evans’s last 3 games
1.7 rec. (3.0 targets), 24.0 yards, 0.67 TDs per game = Tyler Johnson’s last 3 games, playing part time two of the games.
6) Tyler Johnson (2-4-1/2) – Nice #6 WR to have! He could matter this one week only (Week 8) with Godwin out.
-- Josh Jacobs (10-17-0, 3-14-0/4) had a nothing FF game, but you knew it was coming vs. TB’s run defense.
Jacobs has yet to run for a 100+ yard game this season.
Jacobs is the #26 RB in fantasy since Week 2…just behind David Montgomery and Darrell Henderson…and just ahead of Jeff Wilson.
The more I look at this, the more I say you should trade him in redraft. I was asked about trading him in our Video Q&A Tuesday Night show and I kinda balked…I was wrong. Trade him as a RB1 value, his name carries weight.
Don’t trade because he’s been a weak performer, but that’s true. No, trade because he’s been a weak performer AND the schedule is about to kill him off more, every other week.
His schedule ahead by least rush yards per game allowed…
Week 8 = #5 CLE
Week 9 = #15 LAC
Week 10 = #9 DEN
Week 11 = #30 KC
Week 12 = #6 ATL
Week 13 = #20 NYJ
Week 14 = #3 IND
Four of his next seven games with top 10 run defenses is going to add to his general issue.
-- Daniel Carlson (2/2 FG, 2/2 XP) is the #6 PPG PK on the season to date…just one extra FG away from being #2. I’m a big fan. But just note – he kicks outside Week 8 at a windy, potentially rainy Cleveland this week. Be careful streaming him this week if your FF life is on the line this week.
-- The Tampa Bay DST is starting to become the best defensive unit in all of football, and you can probably just run them out there every week with some confidence, but…
Weeks 9-13 could be disappointing…
Week 9 = v. NO is not great.
Week 10 = at CAR should be good
Week 11 = v LAR is probably OK
Week 12 = v. KC is trouble, potentially.
Week 13 = BYE
Weeks 9-13 might have 1-2 confident plays in 5 weeks in a key time in FF.
Snap Counts of Interest:
51 = Agholor
49 = Ruggs
35 = Renfrow
32 = Jacobs
19 = Richard
15 = Booker
62 = Evans
59 = Godwin
43 = Miller
29 = Tyler Johnson
40 = Fournette
31 = RoJo
55 = Gronk
12 = Brate
![](/images/articles/2022/7_a44bc63989_thumb.png)
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 7: Game Analysis: Rams 24, Bears 10 I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar. This was a pretty straight forward game. The Rams played a fundamentally sound, smart football game against a tough defense and took a 10-3 halftime lead…and then made it 17-3…and then made it 24-3 by the end of the 3rd-quarter and they tried to let the Bears back into the games at various times but the Bears have one of the five worst offenses in football and arguably the worst run game – so when they’re down, they’re done. Matt Nagy is still, somehow, known as an offensive genius. The Rams have a good defense, for sure, but the Bears made them look like the 85 Bears at certain points. Credit the Rams for a smart win. I thought they’d get beat here or close to it. The Rams play smart football, get the most out of what they got, and the Bears are just not as good as everyone thought…all a combination for a dull, easy win for the Rams. The Rams head to Miami Week 8, always a tough road game to Miami…but they get to face Tua in his debut, so you have to like the better coached team in L.A. to throw fits at Tua – but new QBs, new O-Cs, often confuse defenses who don’t know ‘tendencies’ in their debuts, so it’s not an auto-win for the Rams. The Rams are headed to 10 +/- wins and the playoffs. Whether it’s as the NFC West winner or as a wild card. The Bears fall to (5-2) and have some schedule turbulence ahead. They are set up to lose at least three of their next 4 games. If so, they would be (6-5) heading to the schedule going easy again starting Week 13. Chicago getting 9-10 wins is on the table…a wild card is in sight, and then a quick playoff exit. But they do have Nick Foles…so, anything is possible. Fantasy Player Notes… -- The good news at Rams RB… Darrell Henderson (15-64-0, 2-13-0/2) is the clear starter. The bad news at Rams RB, for me, Darrell Henderson is splitting 65/35 time with Malcolm Brown (10-57-1, 0-0-0/1), and Brown got the lone RB TD this week. The good news is, Cam Akers (0-0-0/0) has drifted off to M.I.A. He’s been no threat to make this a trio RBBC. Henderson has played the majority of snaps, taken the majority of carries, and been the guy in the game for most of the important parts. Henderson is a solid RB2 week-to-week, with the hopes he gets a TD to get to RB1…I just described most RBs starting for FF teams this week. At least we have a floor set in of performance expectations and some hope for an upside against lesser run defenses. The problem is, DH faces (arguably) the three of the 5 toughest run defenses in the NFL Weeks 10-12…SEA-TB-SF. Factor in a Week 9 BYE, and you can’t have any confidence in split-role-starter Darrell Henderson in four of the next 5 weeks. In redraft, it’s wise to consider moving him this week in a deal, preemptively. If you’re counting on him and are playing for your FF life the next 4-5 weeks. There’s always a chance he gets a goal line score to make it work, but the data says, ‘trouble ahead’. In Dynasty, he’s a hold…the talent in the Rams backfield. If you don’t have him, you can acquire him cheaper in about 3-4 weeks if he puts up a bunch of 12-40-0 games in the tough stretch. -- I have to laugh, to keep from crying, watching this game… David Montgomery (14-48-0, 5-21-0/5) is the all-in back for the Bears organization and consistently fails/disappoints every week. While across the field this day, Darrell Henderson has to split with Malcom Brown. Imagine if Henderson got the David Montgomery treatment by his coaches…and the media? The NFL is unfair. Fantasy is unfair. Life is unfair. We grind on. 2020 Fantasy is a battle of wills – what FF owners are going to crack under the pressure of bad matchups, bad injuries, etc., and start to flail away with wild waivers and lineup choices versus what ones are going to keep their heads and play the board as smart as they can and try to grind their way into the FF playoffs? FF is a beast you cannot tame on demand in 2020. You just have to keep from being eaten by the beast for as long as you can locked in a cage with it. If you think you make poor lineup choices…look at Matt Nagy and his RB plans every week. You’d think they would’ve traded for an RB by now, but nope… -- My gut feeling player of the week, Darnell Mooney (3-40-0/7) didn’t hit. He had a couple deep ball shots but he’s not ready to shine yet. He will hit one of those deep balls soon…they keep trying it more each week and it’s close but no cigar. I wonder if Nagy ever thought a bubble screen or that WR jet sweep every other team runs for an automatic 5+ yards would be smart to try with their 4.2s running WR? Not yet, it hasn’t but there’s always next week…maybe…probably not. -- The Rams WRs weren’t too far off Mooney in FF performance… Cooper Kupp (6-43-0/6) has averaged 4.7 catches (7.5 targets), 47.3 yards, 0.0 TDs the past 3 games. Robert Woods (3-22-0/5) has averaged 3.7 catches (7.7 targets), 40.7 yards, 0.67 TDs receiving the past 3 games. What gives? What has happened to the Rams’ receivers the past 3 games? 1) They played pretty stout, tough pass defenses. 2) It looks like Sean McVay has gone all RB-split roles, and WR-split, and TE-split. They are not leaning on one player at any skill position. They attack the matchups, rotate to keep fresh, spread things around – it’s the way I would do things as an NFL coach. Don’t lean on one predictable thing one play to the next, but if I’m down I go with my best horses getting them the ball. But the Rams are getting up/ahead and just smartly spreading things around. Smart for the NFL, terrible/maddening for FF. It’s going to be hard to predict the Rams offensive weapons every week ahead it appears. You’re hoping you find the TD guy to make it worthy for FF. Malcolm Brown, Gerald Everett, Josh Reynolds were the TD guys here…probably not in your lineup…or on anyone’s roster. -- Great showing by the Rams-DST, but we have to note the Bears are a favorable FF matchup. The Rams-DST has been nice against Dan Jones, Foles, Haskins/Allen. Popped by J. Allen and Jimmy G. Tua this week is favorable, you’d think. Then a Week 9 bye. Weeks 10-13…Wilson, Brady, Jimmy G., Kyler. After Week 8, you need a replacement DST for them. -- The Bears-DST is another unit that is talented but has benefitted from strength of opponent as well…and that schedule is about to shift on them too. Weeks 8-13…Brees-at Tannehill-Cousins (good for turnovers)-BYE-at Rodgers…the next 5 weeks, one confident use? Maybe they are too much for Brees or Tannehill, but I don’t think so. Goff was not bothered by them here. Matt Ryan, Teddy B., Stafford all did OK. You like/respect the Bears-DST, but you got two good spots through Week 14 (Weeks 10/MIN and 13/DET). Snap Counts of Interest: 55 = Everett 46 = Mundt 40 = D Henderson 29 = M Brown 51 = Mooney 50 = A Rob 37 = A Miller 52 = D Montgomery 13 = C Patt
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- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 7: Game Analysis: Bills 18, Jets 10
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
Six field goals for 18 points…that’s Buffalo’s day in a nutshell here. But did you know PK Tyler Bass was 6 of 8 on FG attempts? The Bills were in scoring position 8 times in this game and couldn’t score…but actually they did they just didn’t count. It’s important to know that because the narrative of this game is – the Bills are frauds and Josh Allen/the offense is crashing to earth. It’s not true. We’ll get into that.
The Jets played a hard-nosed game, but they’re undermanned and lost. You see this as ‘Geez, this was too close. I had Buffalo in my survivor pool, and they gave me a scare all game. They couldn’t score on the Jets? The Bills suck.’
Actually, this was a quality win for Buffalo…because they weren’t playing well early on – they were down 10-0 mid-2nd-quarter. They were down 10-6 at the half. They were down 10-9 late into the 3rd-quarter. But after halftime this defense went into lockdown mode. Sam Darnold was like 1 for 11 at one point in the 2nd-half. They stumbled around but gutted up and grabbed this win that weaker-willed Buffalo teams of the past would have lost.
Buffalo is now (5-2) and they are going to go beat the ever-loving ass out of New England and put the Patriots out of their Cam-misery. Bet Buffalo, lay the -3.5 this week…and then they’ll have a let down vs. Seattle the following week. The Bills have been waiting for this Patriots moment since last year. I don’t think Cam knows what he’s gotten himself into this Week 8.
The Bills schedule after the New England game is not kind. There’s trouble for wins and losses. We still see 9-10 wins and a division title, but we go back to square one if they get beat by Belichick this week…an even race to the finish.
The Jets played as good a game as they could’ve. This Week 7 Jets team/effort could win a game or two before it’s over, but this Week 7 Jets team is not anything to rely on/bank on. Week 9 v. NE might be their shock first win of the season. Most likely, they’re going (0-16).
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Josh Allen (30-43 for 307 yards, 0 TDs/0 INT, 11-61-0) had no TD passes against the Jets, GASP (sound of pearls clutching)!!! He must secretly suck like we knew all along. He’s back to his old ways!! I should’ve never traded for him weeks ago. I must punish him for his crimes against FF-humanity!!!
You think it’s bad about Josh Allen in the FF-world? My leading email ask player of the week right now is – how to dump Ezekiel Elliott ASAP. Zeke has been on top of the FF world for years and even produces in games where he fumbles nine times, but he had a bad FF game last week so now he must be punished, he must extradited from your fantasy team before the unthinkable happens…he underproduces expectations two weeks in a row!!!
By and large, people in fantasy…they buy high and sell low. We/FFM just don’t knock on enough doors to expose it most times…and then after a failed attempt or two we say the league ‘doesn’t trade’ and stop trying. We should lead the league in rejected trade offers – not trade concepts floated via email, real offers. People are selling Josh Allen (and Zeke Elliott) whether they admit it or not publicly.
Josh Allen completed 69.8% of his above-average 43 pass attempts in this game. He didn’t throw a pick (but he tried too once or twice). He threw for 300+ yards. He rushed for a season 61 yards. He’s not regressing. The Jets are not the worst pass defense in the NFL, not even top 10 worst by QB rating allowed against them. Everything is fine.
BUT HE DIDN’T EVEN THROW FOR A TOUCHDOWN, therefore he sucks.
Allen got the Bills into scoring position 8 times this game…for six of 8 field goals.
Allen threw a 20+ yard TD pass to Gabriel Davis that got called back for a non-impactful penalty. He then threw another 20+ yard TD pass the very next play to Cole Beasley, but Beasley had stepped/got knocked out of bounds and was ruled to have come back in to make the catch. Later in the game, Allen hit Tyler Kroft on the money for an easy 50+ yards score…but as Kroft was racing down the sidelines to free paydirt, he pulled a Daniel Jones and face planted, untouched, halfway into his score. Another ‘no TD’ event that wasn’t Allen’s fault.
If Kroft had stayed on his feet and if the penalty hadn’t been called on the G. Davis TD, Allen would have had 350+ yards passing, 2 TDs, one of them 50+ yards, and he had 61 yards rushing (and 1-2-3 shots at a rushing TD) in this game. What more do you want for FF?
Coming into the game, Allen was 2nd in the league in passing TDs.
What else does he have to do?
I know people…THEY (non-FFMers) listen to analysts, and the analysts are turning on Allen because he’s not winning games and they have been conditioned to not like him as a QB prior. Therefore, THEY are turning on Allen. He’s a fringe QB1 at-best for them…a hot potato they need to get rid before the unthinkable happens…they didn’t sell him off at the peak of his powers back when everyone loved him. The shame and humiliation of Allen being great before and now terrible, it’s too much to bear so they will trade him away no matter what they tell you on how much they love him – they will make the trade if you give them the opportunity.
If you don’t want to believe in Allen it’s OK, but if you think Allen is fading – you’re wrong.
-- I was excited to re-watch this to see the debut of Denzel Mims (4-42-0/7), and…well…not that exciting. But neither was Justin Jefferson’s first 2-3 games. Rookie WRs need a few weeks to get comfortable, especially ones who barely played in training camp due to injury.
We need more time to evaluate Mims, but my first glance – nothing exciting. I didn’t see a reason to write lots of words about the debut. Sam Darnold is a noodle arm and threw some passes clean to Mims and he caught them and got tackled quickly.
Mims did get an end zone shot to enact his specialty of high pointing passes, but Darnold not knowing what I know, somehow, threw a flat pass instead of a looping jump ball and Tre’Davious White ate Mims up for an incompletion.
First viewing of Mims…nothing good/bad to report. Need more time.
-- Who is not good (for FF)…Devin Singletary (8-29-0, 2-18-0/5). He’s got Zack Moss (7-47-0, 3-25-0/3) up his rear now, he’s got a terrible run blocking O-Line, and Josh Allen takes rushing TD chances and doesn’t throw a ton to RBs consistently.
I’m throwing in the towel…whatever that means. He’s an RB3-3.5 who gets decent touches. Latavius Murray gets as good of touches as Singletary in a game (Kamara steals from Latavius, Allen/Moss steal from Devin), and that’s just the first thought RB off the top of my head to compare Singletary for FF right now.
Singletary is talented. Promising results from his rookie season (especially when you consider how his rookie numbers might compare to top rookie picks from this class) but no follow through as Buffalo went smart for the NFL with an RB-duo…but then their O-Line weakened at the same time. I see nothing to get me excited about Singletary for FF short of a Moss injury and gone/out.
-- The Bills’ WR report…
Cole Beasley (11-112-0/12) had a great game because Diggs was double covered a lot and John Brown was out.
When John Brown returns, it further opens this offense for Josh Allen…and Brown will benefit by being the #2 WR for a high functioning passing game.
Gabriel Davis (1-11-0/3) didn’t seize any control of an opportunity to burn Jets CBs. He’s solid but not amazing/going to take over as a starter on purpose anytime soon.
Stefon Diggs (6-48-0/11) mediocre FF game. Gets punished for being with Josh Allen, and the Allen fade, so I’m buying Diggs with two-fists. Diggs-Allen is going to Adams-Rodgers-lite or like. Diggs is a top 5 PPR WR YTD but gets treated like a WR1.5 in the trade market. I will buy it all.
If my 6pts per pass TD/PPR league team was scuffling with like a (2-5) record and was rocking a flimsy QB…I’d try to buy Allen-Diggs and shove all my chips in on them as the most undervalued duo in fantasy.
-- Lamical Perine (11-39-1, 2-16-0/3) looked OK in this game. He ended up playing 40-15 snaps over Frank Gore, so it’s time to take this a little bit more seriously than I have. Still, I’m not really all that interested. I know this is a bad offense/bad O-Line. I don’t want to invest in the mediocre RB from it…but he can have a James Robinson or Myles Gaskin ‘getting touches’ appeal.
Ty Johnson looked so good and promising last week, which means the Jets couldn’t find one carry for him this week. Makes sense…it’s the Jets…it’s the NFL.
Snap Counts of Interest:
54 = Perriman
48 = Berrios
45 = Mims
12 = Jeff Smith
40 = Perine
16 = Gore
72 = Diggs
70 = Gab Davis
61 = Beasley
40 = Singletary
35 = Moss
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- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 7: Game Analysis: Steelers 27, Titans 24
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
I know just about all anyone cares about from this game is Chase Claypool v. Diontae Johnson analysis…we’ll get to that first thing in the player section.
As far as this game overview goes…it’s weird. The Steelers got up 27-7 with 10 minutes left in the 3rd-quarter and were dominating. I kinda stopped watching the game during the seven-at-a-time viewing of the early games because I thought it was over. Slowly but surely Tennessee started creeping back into the game and shutting down the Steelers offense…and at the end, Tennessee was lining up for a game tying FG to go to overtime at the buzzer, and Stephen Gostkowski pulled it left…and...ball game.
The Steelers were dominant for 35 minutes, and then the Titans controlled things/stormed back the final 25 minutes. Really, the Steelers won the details of the game…72.2% on 3rd-downs and 37/23 minute time of possession hold. It visually felt like the Steelers were the better team, to me.
The Steelers are now (6-0)…and it hasn’t been a picturesque (6-0)…but undefeated nonetheless. They head to a road game showdown with the Ravens this week…and the Steelers will either fall to 2nd-place with a loss or open up a two-game lead with a win and really have some control of the AFC North and a shot at a #1 seed. The Steelers are headed for 11-12 wins, maybe more…but that could be a divisional winner or a #1 wild card.
The Titans fall from the unbeatens (5-1) but still have the lead in the AFC South, and with a favorable schedule ahead the Titans should win 10-11 games and take the division – they’re just better than Colts all-around, in my opinion, unless Gostkowski ruins them like Vinatieri did the Colts last year.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- It was so nice that the Chase Claypool (1-0-0/1) hype train hit into the side of a mountain, full speed, in Week 7. After 5 TDs his prior two weeks, which was nearly 7-8 TDs in that span…Claypool got one official target here. Thank you for your service, Chase…
Diontae Johnson (9-80-2/15) returns from his constant little injuries, forcing him to leave games early, and you would think that would be held against him or throttled back or time to re-integrate – but he doesn’t miss a beat and is the star of the game…all while I guided everyone to not have to push him into lineups, so as to see what we were dealing with in this new Steelers WR configuration.
Diontae has cost my season in some places, or just made it harder than it needed to be, by helping hand me three losses -- two times, in back-to-back weeks, he left the game one touch in with an injury and never returned…forcing my FF teams to play a man down right off the jump. Jeff Wilson gets hurt scoring his 3rd TD of a game…because I don’t own Jeff Wilson. The guys I own all get injured one play in, leave me with a zero or negative score, and screw my FF-team for the week. This week, Diontae found a new way to screw me…having been burned by him for weeks, I decided to ‘wait and see’ how he’d integrate back in – so, he was often on my bench scoring an S-load of points while my starting Claypool thus took his zero to have me playing, essentially, a man down again due to a Steelers star WR.
Diontae and Claypool have been two of my best stories of 2020, when you stop and consider. Two elite talents/mega fantasy producers in games. Two guys we took middle/late in redrafts, Best Ball, stole in Dynasty drafts as bargains the past two years – two sensational football scouting wizardry, and yet…they have cost me more fantasy wins than any player I’ve had in 2020.
I hate myself in fantasy for what they’ve done. I can’t even enjoy the real story – that we out-scouted the whole of fantasy with them, and outsmarted the NFL (on Claypool) with these tremendous bargain players who are future elites. I should be celebrating this, instead I want to strangle them and I’m getting all kinds of emails from people who lost the same way who are thinking I’m a fantasy idiot and questioning why they subscribed this year. I did my scouting job at an elite level, like no one else…and all it has done is cost me trust with my clients and myself, by helping force losses I shouldn’t have taken.
Arguably my two greatest calls of 2020 are causing people to think I’m an idiot and questioning my football knowledge. You think your fantasy season has been difficult…
Welcome to Fantasy Football 2020.
What’s worse is the question you have for me this week – what do we do with Claypool now?
I don’t know.
What I do know is whatever I thought I knew about what to do with either of these guys in a given week is going to wind up to be the wrong thing. So, I’m going to give you my thought process on ‘what now’, but feel free to do the exact opposite…because if there is any fantasy trend that works in the Diontae/Claypool ecosystem – it’s that whatever reasonable, expert opinion I have…the opposite will be true in that upcoming week’s fantasy results.
My take on Diontae/Claypool/the Steelers’ WRs:
I wondered, after this game, if Claypool just didn’t play but like half the game and was treated as a backup…and that ‘benching’ forced this weak week. But…
Steeler WR snap counts:
65 = JuJu
59 = Diontae
51 = Claypool
18 = J Washington
As I suspected going into this week – James Washington was the odd man out. He has to be. Claypool is too good to sit.
So, Claypool is now a real starter. That’s a great sign, puts my mind at ease. But why only 1 target?
Well, Claypool did have two other targets and a jet sweep…all negated by penalty. Not that having 3-4 touches in a game is amazing, but it’s not ‘one’.
From my vantage point watching this tape – Ben was really locked in on Diontae like Aaron Rodgers is with Davante Adams. Further helping the Ben-Diontae show here was the Titans playing back, almost in a zone and Ben playing easy pitch and catch with Diontae underneath wide-wide-wide open…which we love to see, for Diontae!!!
Diontae was working. JuJu was getting left alone/lesser coverages. Claypool got more attention. It was the right thing to do, mostly, for Ben. The first TD of this game (called back for penalty) was from the 1-yard line, Claypool came around for that insta-TD jet sweep, but they faked it and went the other way with James Conner. 3-4 defenders were rolling to Claypool in motion, others were stopped in their tracks…by the time they realized Conner was going the other way for an easy TD pass it was too late to get near him. Claypool is getting that attention now…good for him/the Steelers, bad for FF when he’s a decoy.
Claypool is a starter for Pittsburgh…and that’s a good thing. There’s now a fear they just use him as a bit player all season now after what he just did the prior few weeks. Before Tyler Lockett caught 15 passes for 200 yards on 20 targets on SNF…he averaged 3.0 rec., 41.5 yards, 0.0 TDs per game the two games prior…and people we’re giving up on him fearing D.K. Metcalf was stealing all the gold. Let’s not let one game result define the future when there’s cause to believe otherwise. It’s not like we’ve not seen Claypool playing like a star.
Two WRs can co-exist for FF from the same team. And JuJu is the least talented member of their trio and was discussed as droppable by some before he had a good FF game here.
Also, if you own Diontae and Claypool, or just Diontae…and if you had Diontae on the bench this week…you should be rejoicing. Diontae is now more confirmed elite than most FF WRs. In the three games Diontae played start to finish this season, he’s averaging:
7.7 rec. (12.7 targets), 76.3 yards, 1.0 TDs per game.
You know what that is in fantasy PPR terms? 21.0 FF PPG. You know where that would rank in 2020 among all WRs in PPR PPG? #3 overall.
#1 Davante Adams
#2 Tyler Lockett (after his Week 7/SNF)
#3 Diontae in his three full games.
I told you that he was the new A.B. last year, and wrote about it again weeks ago. And then you acquired or confidently started him because of me…just in time for his injury zeros and hated me for it. Now he just scored 29 PPR points in a game, and I advised to bench him with other options, and now I’m hated for that.
You have the next elite PPR WR in fantasy…and all I am getting/feeling is angst about it.
Welcome to Fantasy Football 2020.
I am ‘buying’ Chase Claypool stock in fantasy, and especially in Dynasty, today…where I find weak holders. Nothing is worse than getting a zero in fantasy…it negates+ the 4 TD week from two weeks prior (likely on their bench too). Last week, people were wanting to trade Diontae because he was injury prone and couldn’t exist/thrive with Claypool as a new star. This week, Diontae is a star and Claypool might have just been lucky. That’s how fast people’s football mindset changes…which leads to rash, emotional deals.
When a fantasy player doesn’t perform – they must be punished by their owners. I know this after a decade dealing with every walk of life in FF. Great performances are ‘luck’ and bad performances must be dealt with immediately, usually with sweeping statements how two WRs can’t coexist, and Claypool won’t be Ben’s guy with Diontae there…and JuJu is back in Ben’s graces, so it’s even worse. Do we not remember Weeks 4-5-6 when Diontae was out? Ben going to Claypool like a star/like his #1…JuJu was still there and was a ghost in Claypool’s wake. A one-week shift/event changes all of that now?
I know football greatness when I see it…and Claypool has it, so I’m buying…seeking those FF owners ready to punish Claypool for his high crimes of putting up a zero last week (doubly punished if Diontae was on the bench with it too). I want to trade with the Claypool owner who thinks CC was a flash in the pan and Week 7 is the new reality going forward.
I’m also not overpaying for it. I know people are mad and panicked, so I’m slyly going to come in the back door and rob them.
-- Jonnu Smith (19-0/4) had a down game, so he must be punished by FF owners too. A down game and burning owners the week prior leaving early with an injury. This cannot stand. Heads will roll.
I’ll buy your downtrodden Jonnu stock. I’m not paying a lot, but I know this…his current owner is steaming, and I want to take advantage of it.
I have a slight fear that A.J. Brown being back changes the flow a bit away from Jonnu, but Smith got 1-2 end zone shots this game. Just didn’t connect. Jonnu doesn’t look 100% either. Two down weeks, but after Week 5 he was the #3 fantasy TE in PPG. That ain’t nuthin’?
Where I’m TE desperate, I’ll look into seeing if I can get a cheap deal. You can have my Harrison Bryant or Michael Thomas last second pickup to be your TE.
-- All these ‘toys’ for Ben (32-49 for 268 yards, 2 TDs/3 INTs) and he hasn’t thrown for 270+ yards in a game but once this season. He has thrown for 2.1 TDs per game this year though, likely headed to a career high passing TD count neat/at/above 40 TDs – like about a half-a-dozen+ QBs are going to do this season.
-- Ryan Tannehill (18-30 for 220 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) continues to not disappoint.
He’s not sexy but he is the #9 QB in FF PPG (4pts per pass TD), a slight tick behind Aaron Rodgers. If Tannehill had one more 10-yard run, he’d be 7th among QBs in FF PPG right now.
-- Robert Spillane (3 tackles) did a nice job filling in for Devin Bush. However, he got hurt in this game…hurt on maybe the best hit of the 2020 season. On a goal-line play, the Titans (of course) ran up the middle with Derrick Henry. The O-Line parted the red sea and DH had a clear path to the end zone with Spillane staring him down in his way. Spillane took off like a bat out of hell/Bobby Boucher and met Henry both going full speed and he dropped Henry like a sack of potatoes. It looked cool, but Spillane about knocked himself out, got hurt, and left the game.
Spillane is going to be IDP good this year as a new starting ILB. I hope he’s physically OK for Week 8.
-- The Steelers-DST is showing some cracks. They squashed Cleveland Week 6 but in-between that Tannehill-Wentz pushed scoring/numbers on them. I don’t know how great a play they are for Week 8 at Baltimore, but they’ve been good enough so far in 2020 to roll the dice with them and see.
Their schedule the rest of the year is pretty favorable. You can pretty much run them the rest of the season and have hope in a year of hopeless DSTs.
-- The Titans-DST is an interesting case…
Top 12 in PPG allowed in the NFL, middle of the pack in yards, top 5 in turnovers, bottom 5 in sacks. Gave up a lot to the Steelers right away, but then shut them off and allowed a comeback to occur (nearly). They gave up a lot to Houston Week 6, but held high-flying Buffalo to a season low 16 points. Prior to that they allowed 30 and 30 to lowly Jacksonville and Minnesota…the results are all over the place with them, but I can say this: They have talent, they’ve missed some guys due to injury. When Adoree Jackson returns it’s a boost.
If you can accept that the Titans DST is ‘not bad’, then the schedule ahead isn’t the worst thing in the world…in an era of ‘lacking’ DSTs and people hoarding DSTs:
Week 8 = at CIN (YES, bad O-Line)
Week 9 = v. CHI (YES)
Week 10 = v. IND (YES)
Week 11 = at BAL (NO)
Week 12 = at IND (YES)
Week 13 = CLE (YES)
Week 14 = at JAX (YES)
Week 15 = DET (YES)
Last season, the Titans-DST was #8 in fantasy (Weeks 1-16). They have the same/better unit back this year. They play efficient football to hold time of possession to help their defense. Among the unclaimed DSTs in leagues…the Titans might be a trash that turns to a mild treasure. Maybe.
Snap Counts of Interest:
65 = JuJu
59 = Diontae
51 = Claypool
18 = J Washington