- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 6: Jaguars 24, Dolphins 21
In a battle of two of the worst teams in the league, the Jaguars took the victory. Congratulations on your moral victory Jacksonville. Tell em what they've won Johnny! It's worse draft position and at least another week of Urban Meyer!
You want to know how bad it's gotten for Jacksonville? Coming off the 2nd longest losing streak in NFL history, the Jaguars, almost to a man, avoided Meyer after this game. Nobody doused him in Gatorade, they didn't shake his hand, hug him, nothing. One guy very quickly slapped Meyer on the back and that was it. There was a ring of empty space around Meyer after this game. You'd have thought we were back to the height of the pandemic and social distancing.
I cannot overstate this enough: I don't see how Meyer survives this year. The players want nothing to do with him, don't want to be seen with him at all. He's got no respect left from anyone other than the owner, Shad Khan. You can't effectively run a team this way.
Make no bones about it, this is a bad team, and they are not about to magically make a turn. They will likely struggle to get a mere 3 or 4 wins on the year, and I, personally, expect that Meyer is fired before/at the end of the year.
*RC NOTE: There are reportedly/rumored a 3rd video...worse than the other two and some possible text exchanges -- which would really kill Urban off soon.
The Miami side of this game isn't a whole lot better. They are 1-5 with a godawful QB, and the head coach has to be feeling the heat right now. But...we may be hours away from a saving grace. If the Dolphins had started this season 3-3 or at least seemed respectable I highly doubt we would be talking about them possibly trading for Deshaun Watson right now. But because Brian Flores knows he's on the hot seat, he might be willing to mortgage the future and sign a deal with the devil to save his job.
If Watson does indeed get traded then it's a monumental shift for fantasy that will have ripple effects across the league, assuming he gets to play, although I doubt Miami would make the deal without getting approval from the league to start him. If it happens, Waddle, Gesicki, and Fuller instantly get a boost. Watson himself suddenly has a decent supporting cast, and we all saw how well he worked for fantasy with limited resources in Houston.
In addition, the Dolphins suddenly become a lot more dangerous, particularly for their AFC East rivals. Buffalo, especially, could be looking at the difference between the #1 overall seed and the 2nd seed which is huge for them. They need home field advantage all the way through the playoffs.
We will have to see if this all manifests, but I feel like this might finally be the time, and the desperation surrounding the Miami franchise is what will finally get it done.
*RC NOTE: My current prediction on this from conversations and just trying to think it through…
Watson is traded to Miami and it’s last second of the trade deadline/with the understanding that Miami will not use Watson vs. Houston Week 9 (if they even can). Watson will likely be suspended for 4+ games anyway...but in all this I believe Brian Flores will get fired either right as Watson is eligible to play this year, or definitely gone for next season -- to get a fresh coach in for Watson.
Fantasy Notes
--So Tua Tagovailoa (33-47 for 329 yards, 2 TD/1 INT, 3-22-0) was back this week and did his usual dink and dunk game fairly effectively. He's really not a terrible QB for fantasy despite his real world flaws. You can spot start him against weaker defenses if absolutely needed.
--Can't really say the same for Trevor Lawrence (25-41 for 319, 1 TD/0 INT, 2-11-0)...yet...I do think his day for fantasy will come, but it might not be in 2021. Lawrence is a sneaky good runner, and once they have a better offense he's going to get 5-6 rushing TD's a year to help juice his stats. I say ‘pass’ this year, but I can almost guarantee he'll be on my short list of cheap, running QB's for 2022 unless his ADP is too high.
--James Robinson (17-73-1, 3-28-0/4) keeps chugging right along as an RB1. He actually looks better this year than he did last year. He's not the most athletic runner I've ever seen, but he's got a bit of that slippery quality that Jordan Howard does where he always seems to find an extra couple of yards. Don't think he'll finish top 5 this year, but I see no reason why he won't finish as an RB1 on this volume.
--As I said in my last Jaguars report, Marvin Jones (7-100-1/10) is definitely the Jacksonville WR to own. He is Lawrence's first look in the passing game and the guy working the juicy intermediate routes.
--Laviska Shenault (6-54-0/10) bounce back a little this week on 10 targets. I don't think that keeps up. He's still being used on too much underneath stuff and doesn't get enough scoring opportunities to make up for it. He's a random WR4-5 option in ppr.
--I really thought Dan Arnold (2-17-0/5) might have a huge game here, but it was a little more muted than I expected. Lawrence was definitely trying to get him the ball though. They just missed a couple of close ones. It will get better as they build more chemistry. For now Arnold is just another TE hopeful trying to get into that weekly top 12 range. I like his chances, but I'm not dying on a hill waiting for a breakout.
RC NOTE: Huge disappointment as Arnold dropped a sure TD pass and dropped another pass later in the game. He really set himself back here.
--Last week I said Jamal Agnew (5-78-0/6) was an afterthought, and he was. This week he was not an afterthought. He's involved in the offense, and honestly looks like Jacksonville's most dangerous player. He's got a level of burst and speed that nobody else has, and it seems like they've figured that out. Agnew was in the game from the start and even got the first two catches. He's coming on fast. Not sure we can get too excited as Lawrence still isn't great, but this development definitely has my interest peaked. Agnew has a little Cordarrelle Patterson type ability if deployed properly. He's taken a couple of carries on the year, but I really want to see them start giving him 2-3-4 a game. If we see that then it could be game on. Until then he's probably just another WR4-5 like Shenault.
--I talked a good bit about Jaylen Waddle (10-70-2/13) last week and how he was obviously the top look for Tua. Whoever the other WR starting is, whether it's Parker or Hollins or Fuller, they'll get 4-5 catches for 50 yards or so, but the juicy ppr stats are with Waddle. He is working these short routes for Tua quite well, and of course that's all Tua can throw, so it's working.
Waddle is WR27 on the year despite playing several games with Brissett. He's just ahead of Christian Kirk, Marvin Jones, and Michael Pittman, and just behind Tyler Lockett, Keenan Allen, and Robert Woods. He's got a juicy matchup with the Falcons this week but will likely get shut completely down the following week against the Bills.
If Watson does wind up in Miami, there's an argument to be made that Will Fuller would be the biggest beneficiary due to their Houston connection, but since Fuller is always hurt and the staff is already so high on Waddle, I suspect it could be Waddle that benefits the most. Right now his speed is going to waste on these short routes. Watson could unlock him as an intermediate and deep threat. It's impossible to say with any certainty how this all shakes out, but I'm looking into acquiring Waddle cheap where possible.
--After Week 1 people were already dropping Mike Gesicki and alleging that he's a terrible receiver, always has been, can't live up to the athleticism...blah blah blah. Have you watched this guy lately? He's developed into one of the better receiving TE's in the league (although that's not quite accurate because he's really just a jumbo WR. All his snaps come from out wide). He doesn't drop passes anymore, literally catches everything thrown his way, and he's using that athleticism to get so wide open even Tua can find him down the field.
From weeks 2-6 he's gotten 40 targets and turned them into 30 catches for 342 yards and 1 TD (14 ppg), the #5 TE over that time frame. He's up to TE8 on the season and might be even higher if he could get a few more scoring opportunities. If Watson ends up here then Gesicki is going to explode into the top 2-3.
--Durham Smythe (5-59-0/6) actually played more snaps than Gesicki and had a decent game, and it's not the first time this year that he's outsnapped Gesicki. But to that I say...I don't care. Gesicki isn't really a TE anyways. He's a gigantic WR with the TE tag for fantasy. He plays almost exclusively from the slot because he can't block worth a damn. Smythe is the true TE on the roster, but I don't see anything emerging here. He's an ok player, nothing special, and he's way down the list of lead targets in Miami. You can safely pass on him.
--RC was wondering what's going on with Salvon Ahmed and the Miami backfield...nothing, same as every week. It's just a pure Belichikian rotation, nothing more. Gaskin is still the starter and lead guy if you want to describe it that way. Brown and Ahmed rotate in with no discernible pattern. Nobody is grabbing the lead here, and you wouldn't really want them even if they did because the offensive line is terrible and there are so few scoring chances. Please just avoid this mess. It's the worst backfield in the league.
--Mack Hollins (4-61-0/5) was quite involved here and looked pretty good doing it, but I don't think he's suddenly going to become the starter across from Waddle. Parker will be back soon and send him back to the bench.
IDP Notes
--Josh Allen (7 tackles, 1 pd) is coming on fast if anyone is watching. He's been a menace the past few weeks both rushing the passer and getting his hands up to knock down passes. Bet he gets a pick 6 soon on one of those stupid quick throws where they leave the end unblocked.
Snap Counts of Interest
68 = Mack Hollins
65 = Jaylen Waddle
23 = Albert Wilson
58 = Durham Smythe
49 = Mike Gesicki
25 = Malcolm Brown
25 = Myles Gaskin
19 = Salvon Ahmed
57 = Marvin Jones
52 = Laviska Shenault
39 = Jamal Agnew
41 = Dan Arnold
30 = Chris Manhertz
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 6: Bengals 34, Lions 11
Another gutsy ‘for a half’ Lions performance, and then they slowly melt as the opponent takes control to the finish. It was a 7-0 Cincy lead with under a minute before halftime…a back-and-forth affair. A field goal to end the 1st-half made it 10-0 Bengals. Then, Cincinnati scored on the opening drive of the 2nd-half and the floodgates opened.
The Lions play hard. Their defense is energetic. Their offense is fading because it’s lost their best two O-Linemen for the season, but it tries to hang in there – but Goff has no time ever. This Lions team will beat a weaker or mediocre foe at some point, but the Bengals are not weak or mediocre, they’re good…so Detroit gets thumped.
Cincinnati (4-2) has a HUGE game Week 7…at Baltimore (5-1) for 1st-place in the NFC North. The Ravens have run hot and cold all year. The Bengals have been steady warm water every week…damn close to being (6-0) and not far from being (3-3). Their defense is a top 10 NFL unit. Joe Burrow is not his normal assassin self, but he’s really playing smart, sound football and his O-Line is grading as a B/C in our revamped O-Line ratings system…a top 10 unit, better on the run than in pass pro…but a ‘passing grade’ in both areas.
If the Bengals can beat the Ravens…at Baltimore…they are in a dogfight with Baltimore and Cleveland to win that division.
I pray the Lions knockoff the Rams this week, but that won’t likely happen. The Lions chance at a win comes Week 10 at PIT or more likely hosting the Bears on Thanksgiving.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- One of the two most eye-catching things from this game…the Lions head coach is complaining about his WRs, but he can’t be talking about Kalif Raymond (6-37-0/7).
It looked like Raymond was the only WR Jared Goff really trusts…and he was forcing it to Raymond in this game…and Raymond responded by catching everything his way (and a few not-easy catches) save for one uncatchable target.
In a week where many are scraping the bottom of the barrel looking for players due to the heavy bye week…Raymond led the Lions’ WRs in snaps and targets here. Amon-Ra St. Brown had 7 targets too, but many of his were late dump off throws wide open vs. prevent coverage.
The only WR who looked like a real WR here was Raymond. It didn’t look ‘wow’…it was just obvious this is what Goff has to work with.
-- The other eye-catching thing…rookie Chris Evans (4-18-0, 3-49-1/3) continues to ‘flash’ a few times each week. He just moves like a starting NFL talent. He lined up as a flanker early in this game, the offense was 25-yards away from the end-zone, Evans did a quick move on a covering linebacker and was 5+ yards past him in a blink for Burrow soft toss on the money for a TD.
Evans is starting to be explored as a weapon…not just ‘warm body behind Mixon and Perine’. No major FF uprising coming…just noting he’s really looking good.
-- I keep watching Ja’Marr Chase (4-97-0/6) to find something I like…to get in the spirit with everyone else in the NFL who claims he’s the greatest WR they’ve ever seen…but I just don’t see it.
He’s very fast…and that’s a good thing. He gets decent targeting…that’s a good thing. He works for FF. But what I see on-field is a guy who is likely to drop the ball working around traffic but makes plays when sprinting deep past coverage. NFL teams should shut him off with a safety under and beg Burrow to throw it to him short, because he’s likely to drop it or get tackled too easily…I think that will start happening more and you’ll see a Chase fade for output.
-- Tee Higgins (3-4-0/6) looks good…but there’s not the QB-to-#1 WR pitch-and-catch overreliance I’d like to see going on right now with him and Burrow. Kirk Cousins wears out Justin Jefferson. Aaron Rodgers seemingly only throws to Davante Adams anymore…ditto Ben-Diontae, but Tee just seems like the #1 WR who is just another nice option among an ensemble for Burrow…like what’s happened to Amari Cooper this year.
I like Tee Higgins’ work/movement/tape. I will buy low. I’m not beating down the door for it, but I am interested.
-- Jamaal Williams (4-11-0, 1-0-0/2) is running into a ditch. He gave an 8 catch, 9 target Week 1 head fake game that too many people are holding onto. Since Week 3, Williams has averaged 1.6 catches, 7.8 rec. yards, 0.0 TDs per game as a receiver.
By contrast, Chris Evans, in that same span, as a backup, is averaging 1.8 catches, 22.5 yards, 0.25 TDs per game.
Williams is the ‘runner’ of the Swift-Jamaal duo, but with the Lions O-Line degradation…Williams has been rendered to RB3-4 status as Swift plays/touches most of the time now.
-- Joe Burrow (19-29 for 271 yards, 3 TDs/1 INT) is…
#6t in passing TDs this season (14)
One of 7 QBs at 70%+ Comp. Pct. (70.7%)
#4t in yards per attempt (8.9)
-- The Bengals-DST is a top 10 functioning/on-field unit, but only #15 in DST PPG scoring. They are FF-viable in any good matchup…like Week 8 at NYJ. That one spot (Wk8) is about their best usage for the rest of the season. Either move on now or hold for Week 8…then move on.
-- Lions CB Amani Oruwariye (2 tackles, 1 INT) has an INT in three of his last 4 games. He’s play tough, aggressive but not so effective at DB for Detroit…but the Lions have no other real options if they wanted to replace him.
-- Lions DE/LB Austin Bryant (2 tackles, 1 sack) has a TFL in three of his last 4 games. Not playing enough snaps to take seriously yet, but just noting.
Snap Counts of Interest:
56 = Raymond
52 = Hodge
49 = St. Brown
13 = Allison
49 = Swift
19 = Jamaal W
57 = Chase
45 = Boyd
41 = Higgins
45 = Mixon
16 = Evans
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 6: Packers 24, Bears 14
I don’t think anyone is shocked by this outcome…the Packers win by more than a score.
What struck me in this was the general malaise, the drabness Green Bay is playing with/winning by…not just here but the last few weeks. It may be the competition is dull or it might be something slightly off with the Packers, but this is a (5-1) team that muddled by Chicago…should’ve lost to Cincinnati the week prior…lucky they didn’t lose to San Francisco. In recent weeks, they’ve beaten bad Chicago and Pittsburgh, but didn’t really put them away…they let the weak opponent hang around. I dunno…something seems off/not like the Packers you expect. A vulnerable Packers team.
They have a VERY tough schedule ahead. We see GB finishing (10-7) but 11-12 wins are not out of consideration. They’re down 2-3 key O-Linemen every game so far but if they get them all back in the 2nd-half of the season – maybe they spike up. Right now, I see a team that is good but not Dallas or Arizona good…a team that could get overtaken by Minnesota if they’re not careful.
The Bears could’ve really made a statement with a win here, but they lost as expected. They just don’t have a chance to overperform because Justin Fields is not ready for this yet. Maybe someday…maybe in a few games…but not now. He’s a drag on the offense today. Their (3-3) record is about what it should be. Like most of the NFC North, the schedule ahead is brutal – we see the Bears finishing around 7 wins.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The Fantasy lead story from this game, the only real fresh info…Khalil Herbert (19-97-1, 2-15-0/3) showed, once again, that the 2nd and 3rd-string RBs from teams are as-good, better-than the starters. So, when these injuries hit – D’Ernest Johnson and Khalil Herbert and 50+ other guys could walk right in and throw down 100+ yard games and look like a stud.
Why NFL teams, outside of Tennessee, continue to insist on wasting payroll on ‘name’ RBs, or high draft picks (like idiotic Pittsburgh) – I have no idea, but NFL teams have been run poorly for decades…no reason for it to change as it only gets more incestuous/nepotistic and media-driven as we go. Anyway…
Khalil Herbert is really solid/good, and probably works a split with Damien Williams upon his return from COVID because Williams would have had the same game as Herbert just did…we just think it’s better by Herbert, because he’s a magical unicorn rookie and you-don’t-know that he isn’t the next Gale Sayers.
The Gale Sayers comps will end when the Buccaneers wreck the Bears run game Week 7, but it’s fun for Bears fans right now.
-- Justin Fields (16-27 for 174 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 6-43-0), at his best, is better than Mac Jones in the NFL. If there are 60 plays in an NFL game (let’s say), the best/top 5 plays comparison of the two…Fields wins hands down. Fields looks better, moves better, is more dynamic. The problem is the other 55 boring plays where Mac Jones is doing proper game management and matriculating the offense slowly/steadily…where Fields is missing on throws and scrambling into sacks and not matriculating the offense enough.
The Patriots are 12th best in 3rd-down conversions. The Bears are #28.
Fields can look majestic on plays…so smooth/fast when running on the loose. When he has time and open receivers, he fires bullets. Fans and scouts tend to remember those few wow plays, but most football games are not ‘wow’ plays – they’re executing regular plays competently, successfully, consistently.
Aaron Rodgers looks WAY better, at his best…aesthetically, than Tom Brady…but Tom Brady will go down as the FAR superior historical QB. Fields is not Aaron Rodgers, but I think we’re all being tempted by our eyes on a few plays here…but most of Fields plays are useless. Much better on the move than in the pocket…and it’s hard to always have a QB on the move/rolling out, defenses can plan for that. And Fields is athletic but not as much/dynamic as Lamar Jackson or Trey Lance…Fields is a lesser Jalen Hurts, with a better pure arm, at best.
But fans and scouts remember the rare athletic/good plays of Fields, so when he only throws for 150 yards a game and no TDs…it will be blamed not-on-Fields, but something else has to take the blame – and that’s the coaching staff. Matt Nagy is TERRIBLE as an offensive mind and QB manager, but this is not his fault…but it’s going to be.
-- Because Fields is so challenged throwing the ball (yards passing in games as a starter: 68, 209, 111, 174), you can’t trust the WRs (or TEs) for FF purposes.
The only thing I know about this weak Bears passing game – Darnell Mooney (5-45-1/8) is the new #1 WR with Justin Fields. It’s not even debatable.
Since Fields became starter:
3.3 rec. (5.3 targets), 43.8 yds, 0.0 TDs per game = Allen Robinson
3.5 rec. (6.0 targets), 53.5 yds, 0.3 TDs per game = Mooney
Neither that spectacular for FF.
Neither a buy low candidate.
-- Aaron Rodgers (17-23 for 195 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT, 7-19-1) still has the quick trigger arm, but his 2021 self doesn’t look like the 2020 MVP guy. Rodgers is basically looking for Davante Adams (4-89-0/5) most plays and then randomly everyone else.
…and the Davante Adams part isn’t firing on all cylinders like 2020 either. Not that he’s bad, but 18 TDs in 14 games last season…2 TDs so far this season. However, if you can invest in a falling/cheaper Davante Adams…using a hype WR of the moment (Deebo, etc.) plus another item to leverage into a paper hand holding owner, you do it…you go for the gold. Davante is still a gold standard WR.
The FF gold standard WRs (as of now):
Davante Adams
Tyreek Hill
Cooper Kupp
-----------------
Diontae, Jefferson, and Diggs on the outside looking in…trying to get in.
-- Allen Lazard (3-27-1/5) looks so good…got a TD here, nearly had a 2nd TD…but you can’t really trust him for FF.
6 games played this year, no games over 50 yards…all games 5 or fewer targets, four games 3 or fewer targets, no games over 45 yards receiving.
Lazard should already be a star. The fact that he or Robert Tonyan have been left for FF-dead by Aaron Rodgers…it worries me on just how good Rodgers is for FF things anymore.
The schedule is not easy ahead either.
-- The Packers-DST has held three of it’s last 5 opponents to 17 points or fewer. It’s a decent defense hanging in without their ace CB (Jaire). If they get Jaire Alexander back (a big IF), then this is a decent DST for when they have favorable matchups…only thing is they just have one good matchup from Week 8 on (Week 14 v. CHI).
-- The Bears-DST has been running as a top 5-10 scoring FF DST, but they don’t look like a top 5-10 NFL defense. They aren’t bad, but they aren’t great. Like most NFC North teams, the schedule is going to clip their wings.
Snap Counts of Interest:
57 = Mooney
56 = ARob
29 = Goodwin
54 = Herbert
03 = Pierce
50 = Lazard
50 = Adams
23 = Cobb
35 = A Jones
25 = Dillon
- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 6: Colts 31, Texans 3
This isn't the first time I've said this, but the Texans really didn't play all that badly here despite getting blown out. They are a bad team but not like a helpless bad team. They are still fighting, giving good effort, trying to win...they just aren't talented enough.
I'm not letting any secrets out of the bag when I say Houston isn't going to win many games this year. 3-4 is probably the best they can hope for. And while I can't say I like this front office from what I've seen so far, there might be some hope on the horizon if they can get a trade done to send Deshaun Watson somewhere this week.
They have to trade him. There's no going back at this point. Too much damage has been done. But by trading him they get out from under any possible legal troubles AND they get a ton of draft capital to try and rebuild this team over the next 2-3 years. Of course they are just as likely to blow all those picks...just look at Miami (who coincidentally are the ones most likely to trade for Watson...go figure...)
The Colts are now 2-4 and better than their record suggests. The schedule hasn't been kind so far, and they've been battling injuries for weeks. As they start to get players back though you see the team is improving. If they can beat SF this week and then beat the Titans on Halloween they could be right back in the mix with Tennessee for the AFC South title. Lose and they are likely done on the spot. The remaining schedule is filled with mostly weaker teams but they do still have dates with the Bucs, Bills, and Cardinals which are all likely losses, so they have to make every other game count.
Fantasy Notes
--Jonathan Taylor (14-145-2, 1-13-0/2) had a monster game, but that's what weak opponents will do for you. He does still have a lot of nice matchups going forward, but I don't like the workload myself and think he's probably going to slightly underwhelm this year on the whole. I'm seeing a RB1.5 with some hopes of maybe getting into the 10-12 range, which is decent work, but personally I would try and flip him off this huge game into something more solid, maybe Darrell Henderson or something similar. RC might disagree. It's a close call, and I couldn't blame anyone that wanted to hold and see how things went. Taylor is still one of the most talented RB's in the league.
*RC NOTE: RC disagrees.
RC says...Jon Taylor is a hold for two reasons: (1) He’s one of the five most talented backs in the game (but the touch count pressure does suck), and (2) If/when the Colts O-Line gets all back together again...it’s how Indy wins...heavier Jon Taylor.
RC likes referring to RC in the third person for no reason.
RC is not saying DHendo cant out-do JT for FF from here on in 2021, it’s a legit thought (because of schedule, offense, touch counts), but RC takes Taylor as my choice to ride the rest of the road with.
--I've been a buyer of Michael Pittman (2-35-0/3) for weeks now, and I'm still interested in acquiring him cheaply, but this game did spook me just a little, not because of the lower volume but because Wentz seemed to be looking for TY Hilton (4-80-0/4) just as often as Pittman despite Hilton being on the field about half as often. Hilton looked fine but nowhere near the player he was just a few years ago. Pittman should be the #1 guy by a mile, but I'm not sure Wentz knows that yet. Let's see what happens with another week.
--Mo Alie-Cox (1-28-1-3) still isn't usable for fantasy no matter how many TD's he catches. His high for the year is still just 3 catches in a game. He's just a big body that Wentz can look for in the redzone.
--Down week for Carson Wentz (11-20 for 223 yards, 2 TD/0 INT) in the stats department, but this was a weird game for the Colts on offense. They didn't have to do much and just played safely until they found a couple of big play opportunities deep. Don't look now but Wentz only has 1 INT on the season and is taking much better care of the ball. He's slowly settling into a nice game manager role where he realizes he doesn't have to make a ton of plays for the team to win and can let Pittman and Taylor do that for him. It's early but it certainly seems like Indy and Frank Reich have had a positive influence on Wentz.
--Don't look now but Brandin Cooks (9-89-0/13) is starting to cook (sorry) again. His targets were down for a few weeks as Davis Mills was getting adjusted to the offense, but he was back up again this week. Now it doesn't matter if Tyrod Taylor comes back or not because Mills is getting more comfortable by the week. Cooks is getting similar or even slightly better work than Diontae Johnson at this point, so there's no reason not to be jumping on Cooks.
In ppr Cooks is 17th on the season with 40 catches, 57 targets, 481 yards, and 1 TD.
DJ is 20th 34 catches, 50 targets, 376 yards, and 3 TD's.
--Rookie Nico Collins (4-44-0/6) was back this week and right back into the starting lineup. He's clearly a big part of Houston's future plans at the position. Still don't see any “wow” from him, but he's barely played at this point and is surrounded by a bad team. You can't use him for redraft right now, but in dynasty he's essentially free and a great speculative add at the bottom of deep rosters.
--RC has been on David Johnson (2-7-0, 1-14-0/2) as a possible cheap ppr option for those dying at RB, and while I was immediately underwhelmed with his box score, it doesn't quite tell the whole story. They were definitely trying to get him the ball more in the passing game than what shows up here. It's just that Mills was under so much pressure that some of his passes aimed at Johnson were off the mark so badly that they don't even show up as targets. I'd say it was closer to 5-6 targets.
He's still primarily a 3rd down back, but he's on the field a good amount and there will be some ok weeks where he catches 4 or 5 passes and maybe a TD puts him into usable territory. It's a thin line and very hard to predict, but he's definitely worth more than the absolute zero most people value him at.
*RC NOTE: IRC loves the DJ mad v. Arizona angle this week, even if it’s just my own bias/hope/anger...but I am seeing articles where DJ is talking about it...it’s definitely ‘a thing’ for a team that has no thing, so why not let DJ have his shot?
If it doesn’t work out, the new DJ in my life might be D’Ernest Johnson...
--For now the main carry RB is still Mark Ingram (18-73-0) for some ungodly reason. I have no idea what the Texans are thinking here as Ingram is easily the worst of the three runners. Ingram is an afterthought in redraft, but in 4 of his 6 games this year he's taken 14+ carries (although two of those went for only 41 yards). Despite the volume his ypc average is terrible and he's not getting any catches or scores to supplement it. He's yet another RB3 although one with a chance of climbing into the RB2 range if circumstances change just a little.
--I've been saying it every week since the Bills game...Davis Mills (29-43 for 243 yards, 0 TD/2 INT) is playing decent football, especially given the circumstances. He doesn't have many weapons to work with or a functional offensive line and yet he's hanging in the pocket with toughness and trying to deliver the ball. I've gained a ton of respect for him since the disaster that was his preseason. Not sure what changed, but he looks like a passable NFL QB right now. There's an argument to be made that he's been the best rookie QB so far, damn the stats. Maybe, just maybe, the Texans have a guy they can do something with during this rebuild. Probably not but there is hope.
IDP Notes
--Bobby Okereke (14 tackles) had a massive day, but it's not as big an outlier as you might think. His last four games his tackles totals are 8, 8, 9, and 14. Solid work.
Snap Counts of Interest
68 = Brandin Cooks
49 = Chris Moore
43 = Nico Collins
32 = Chris Conley
33 = Mark Ingram
32 = David Johnson
46 = Michael Pittman
41 = Zach Pascal
24 = TY Hilton
31 = Jonathan Taylor
11 = Nyheim Hines
31 = Jack Doyle
24 = Mo Alie-Cox
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 6: Cowboys 35, Patriots 29
I still don’t know how Dallas won this game. The Cowboys were down 21-20 with 6+ minutes remaining after a Pats TD for them to take the lead. The Pats halted Dallas and got the ball back with 2+ minutes left to try and ice it. But there would be no icing at all…it was about to get crazy.
Simple over the middle pass by Mac Jones went off Kendrick Bourne’s hands and right to the INT magnet Trevon Diggs for a pick-six. 26-21 Dallas.
First play after the pick-six: a simple medium ball floater from Mac Jones turns into a coverage gaffe and a 75-yard catch-and-run TD. They get the 2-pointer. 29-26 Pats
Dallas drives down in a desperate hurry up and hits on a 3rd & 25 pass over the middle to get into FG range…they hit the 49-yarder for a 29-29 tie and on to OT.
Dallas halts the first Patriots drive in OT, then goes on offense and scores a deep ball TD to CeeDee…ballgame.
The Patriots play not-to-lose…a lot of running and quick/safe passes, and hope the defense comes through. Dallas looked good but had some odd-ball moments…not their finest hour. There were several fluke plays in this game, so I’m not sure who played better or if either played well…but the better team won.
The Patriots fall to (2-4)…could be (5-1)…could be (1-5). They are a .500 or less team type of feel. The schedule is about to turn on them as well. We project NE to finish (6-11).
Dallas is trying to show they are a top NFC team, but I think they are just shy of the Cardinals still at this point. It’s coming down to ARI v. DAL, for the NFC, for me. Green Bay not in that discussion fully. Minnesota could try and sneak into the club but probably won’t. We see Dallas winning 12-13 games this year if they stay healthy.
Week 16…Arizona at Dallas. FYI
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The Patriots are a 1980s team, which is why no one wants to really play there, and they have to overpay mediocre free agents to come be a part of it…and it’s why they probably won’t be a playoff team this year…and if they are, somehow, they’ll never make it past round-one.
However, going with their 80s theme, they have found some more power run game help with rookie Rhamondre Stevenson (5-23-1, 3-39-0/3), who had his ‘breakout’ game here.
Stevenson had 11 carries in Week 5 (for just 23 yards) but pounded in a short TD here – logical for a guy known to be a short game specialist, a good end-of-game pounding back. But the surprise was…he was involved in the passing game ‘heavy’…3 targets, 3 catches and one of them a downfield throw. He has good enough hands. He’s a bully after the catch. Brandon Bolden (1-0-0, 1-3-0/1) was stripped of that James White role from his prior few weeks of pass catching numbers…and Stevenson took on some of that role, in a sense.
It’s a Damien Harris (18-101-1, 1-7-0/1) led backfield splitting 65/35 with Stevenson ahead. Harris looks good running the ball, but the Pats O-Line is so bad…because they’ve been missing 3-4 starters. If they get the O-Line back together, this might be a bully RB-duo that gets the Pats into the .500+ discussion and long shot wild card hopes…and Harris as an RB1 threat in non-PPR…and Stevenson a Flex flyer.
…and if Harris goes down, it’s going to be the Stevenson show at that point.
-- The Pats are a running team because Mac Jones (15-21 for 229 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT) is playing ‘game manager’. He would have had less than 150 yards passing and a TD had the fluke 75-yard TD not happened late.
I don’t see Mac getting a whole lot better as we go…he’s just safely game managing.
The perfect QB for a 1980s style offense.
-- Hunter Henry (2-25-1/2) has a TD in three-straight games, but not much excitement outside of that…but the TDs are a good thing.
Jonnu Smith (1-9-0/2) has 1 TD this season…averaging 1.8 catches per game the last 4 games. He’s become a kinda nobody in this offense.
-- Amari Cooper (5-55-0/8) continues to put up WR2-3 numbers each week since Week 2. Targets per game since Week 2 = 5.2 targets.
Not being treated like a #1 WR. Tough matchups and just Dak spreading it around. If it’s schedule based…Amari should shoot up the next 3 games: MIN-DEN-ATL. If he doesn’t, then we have an Amari problem. I’m not sure which it is. The data say ‘target worries’.
Michael Gallup returning soon doesn’t really matter – Cedrick Wilson (4-42-0/7) has been a fine replacement for Gallup.
-- Gallup returning is scaring the mainstream on Dalton Schultz (5-79-0/6), between that and his bye week…it’s a good time to buy low on Schultz if needed/possible. He’s working like a top 3 PPR TE…and that sounds good…but after Kelce, every TE has been randomly hot and cold about 10+ TEs deep every week. Schultz is trending like a top 3 PPR TE…but that may not be super far ahead of the #8-10 TEs, over time.
I just think Schultz’s work, the way he’s used…it looks like he’ll be up with the top 5 PPR TEs all year, but people give him away because they think he’s dull or fear Gallup or fear whatever.
-- The Patriots have two hot IDPs trending the past few weeks…
Since Week 4, SAF Kyle Dugger (8 tackles, 1 PD) is the #4 PPG DB in IDP…and he’s a real talent/a guy who could finish at #1 among DBs this season.
LB Ja’Whaun Bentley (13 tackles, 1 TFL) is playing about 45-65% of snaps but racking up the tackles…7.2 tackles per game so far this season.
-- The Patriots-DST hasn’t been great this year, except that one 4 INT game vs. NYJ Week 2. They get NYJ again Week 7, but then Justin Herbert Week 8…then Darnold Week 9 is good…but then Weeks 10-14 are not good/time to say good-bye – CLE-ATL-TEN-BUF-BYE.
-- The Dallas-DST has been scoring well for FF, but they’ve been a mixed bag on the field…19th in PPG allowed. 29th in yards per game allowed.
BYE Week 7…at MIN Week 8. No reason to be holding them through the BYE.
Their Weeks 13-16 is where they get interesting: NO-WSH-NYG-WSH
Snap Counts of Interest:
39 = Jonnu
37 = H Henry
26 = Dam Harris
18 = Stevenson
11 = Bolden
63 = Elliott
26 = Pollard
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 6: Ravens 34, Chargers 6
I really locked in on re-watching this game this week. For two reasons…
1) My initial thought was: I need to see ‘what happened’ to my Chargers…the supposed ‘best team in the NFL’ candidate just got drop-kicked by a team I despise. It was probably just ‘one of those games’, and I’ll watch to confirm.
2) As the week went on, my Spidey Senses kicked in: Wait…is Baltimore getting ready to go all-Baltimore-2019? Remember when they beat the brakes off every team, and were the best team in football…only to get thumped in a shocker by Tennessee in the 1st-round of the playoffs?
So, which was it in this game…LAC laid an egg, or the Ravens stuck that egg right up their arse? There was some evidence of both – I’m squarely on the fence of ‘I don’t know that this wasn’t a one-week thing’…remember Baltimore vs. Indy the prior week? Terrible for 3.5 quarters..
I probably hate the Ravens more than any team in football, as a scout/analyst. Why? Because I’m always wrong about them. I usually dislike their roster and offense and decisions…and then I pick against them in Fantasy and handicapping things – and then they burn me. Then when I write a confession/change of thought, every year, and I get behind them – then the collapse happens.
Great example, of many Ravens examples for me…
2019…I think Lamar is too flimsy of a passer to matter for FF beyond his running tallies, and he ends up league MVP and top FF QB.
2020…I saw the 2019 writing on the wall, so let’s get in on that. Let’s pay for Lamar in 4pts pass TD leagues. He’s a top FF QB projection…and then he becomes a dud in 2020.
2021…Well, the league has figured out Lamar, so let’s avoid him…and Andrews, and Brown, and everything there. Well, here we are – Lamar starting to roll and surrounding things rising up.
Lamar, Baltimore, they drive me crazy…it doesn’t look like how I want football things to look. I like Justin Herbert and Patrick Mahomes styled QBs more than Lamar ones. I see Lamar work 60 plays in a game, and I find the 2-3-4 he looked like a fool throwing it and I go “see!” while ignoring the 55+ good plays.
Lamar is the new, better Cam Newton…they just make plays with their feet, and defenses live in fear of it and then that opens up wide open passing lanes. Try and stop the run, he’ll side arm it down the field through the air. Play back and make him pass, and he’ll take off running on 3rd & 8 for 10 yards. Every 4th & short, Lamar takes it, everyone knows it, it doesn’t matter…1st-down.
There was a point in this game where analysts got onto the Chargers for ‘going for it’ on like 4th & 5 midway through the 3rd-quarter AT THEIR OWN 22-yard line. It was bizarre, because you rarely see that – down 24-6 with 20+ minutes left, and you’re going for it deep in your own end? You know why Brandon Staley did that, and he was right to – he knew they were getting their arses kicked. It was the do-or-die moment for a dying man. Staley knew it…the team knew it. The Ravens were not having anything the Chargers were dealing.
…and then the Chargers didn’t convert, and it was ‘ball game’. Honestly, this was over halfway into the 1st-quarter when the Ravens raced out to a 14-0 lead.
The Ravens played well on both sides. They are now (5-1), could be (6-0)…lucky to not be (2-4). It’s not the dominant team of 2019…yet…but there are signs. Put me down for the Ravens to win the AFC North now (CLE too banged up right now), and to possibly be the #1 seed in the AFC (wins over LAC and KC already). But because I’m endorsing them now, they will probably go on a losing streak and become a wild card.
I don’t want to get too giddy on Baltimore…a week ago, they looked terrible for 3.5 quarters against Indianapolis.
The Chargers fall to (4-2)…the team that looked so good Week 5 looked dreadful Week 6. The Chargers have one dominant win this year (v. LV) and 50-50 games in their other wins. They have played good teams toe-to-toe (DAL, KC, CLE), so it’s a good team…but maybe not as good (yet) as we thought. Or it’s just the Ravens are that good now…or just this game. The schedule says LAC will win 11+ games and battle KC for that AFC West title.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Lamar Jackson (19-27 for 167 yards, 1 TD/2 INT, 8-51-0) had that 4 TD event Week 5 vs. Indy. In all his other 2021 games, he has 1 passing TD in each game. He hasn’t rushed for a TD since Week 2. In his last 8 regular season games, he’s had zero rushing TDs in seven of the 8.
In his last 8 games, this time including playoffs, Lamar’s passing TDs in each game (starting with the 2020 playoffs): 0-0-1-1-1-1-4-1 = 9 TDs/7 INTs in that stretch.
If you ignore Week 5 of this season, the Indy game, Lamar isn’t a QB1 for FF otherwise.
And yet, he looks so electric. It’s a weird thing.
-- It’s the run game leading the way for Baltimore here…all three ancient RBs ran for a score. I think Harbaugh is in love with his RB-trio of veterans and he’s going with a strict rotation and semi-hot hand. Devonta Freeman (9-53-1, 0-0-0/2) looks the best of the three, but all of them were fine here because LAC has no run defense with their key linebackers out.
I don’t want to own any, but either of them could score a TD in a given week.
Ty’Son Williams is ‘over’ until further notice. As long as the Ravens are rolling with the ancients, they’ll stick with it as long as the wins are happening.
-- Rashod Bateman (4-29-0/6) looks and moves really well. Part of the new breed of instantly ready WRs coming out of college. Bateman looks like a Justin Jefferson/Diontae Johnson type weapon…great, short routes…hard to cover.
The problems with holding him in redraft 2021 are…
1) Lamar is completing a lower amount of passes in games (except the wild Indy game)…not a lot of catches to go around with Brown-Andrew ruling the targets as it is.
2) Lamar is usually throwing for 1 TD per game…and it’s likely to Brown-Andrews. If you don’t get any TDs and lower volume on catches-yards – what do you really have here? Looks like Justin Jefferson but has the output of lesser-Jakobi Meyers?
I’m a Bateman fan (of his skills) but hate this situation for FF. If Bateman starts to rise a bit…it’s coming out of the account of Marquise Brown.
-- Justin Herbert (22-39 for 195 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 2-12-0) looked the worst I’ve ever seen him in the pros, in this game. Misfired several passes. Threw key 3rd and 4th-down passes to WRs at top CB Marlon Humphrey…a VERY bad idea/to no avail – and he threw them offline most times anyway.
Either he just had ‘one of those games’, or the Ravens defense is starting to fire on some cylinders. They weren’t hitting in those cylinders Week 5 v. Indy, so it’s hard to write a final answer in stone here on the Ravens-D. But they look good. And I’ll tell you, CB Anthony Averitt (6 tackles, 1 PD) looks fantastic…better than Marcus Peters. So, Humphrey-Averitt-Smith is a scary trio when they’re on the field together.
-- One of the biggest shockers for me watching this game back…seeing how often Joshua Kelley (4-7-0) is in the game. He played 18 snaps but seemed in the game more than that. He was rotating in/out with Austin Ekeler (6-7-0, 4-48-0/7) as soon as the very first 1st-series.
They tried to get Kelley going a bit with a power run game, but the Ravens were having it and then the game got out of hand so fast that there was no need for a run game.
Kelley is pulling into the strong #2 back position…the desired handcuff for Ekeler right now.
-- Mike Williams (2-27-0/5) was in and out of the game with his injury being managed, but when he was in, he looked fine. Had an early bomb that missed. His big catch fell short of the goal line for a TD…but when he landed he was hurt, took a while to get up, and didn’t play much after that. He should be fine with the bye week off…hopefully.
It just feels like, to me, that Keenan Allen (5-50-0/5) is becoming a lower option in Herbert’s eyes than Williams. Allen has 1 TD this season and has been 50 yards or less in three of his last 4 games. With Williams mostly out of the game here, Allen didn’t start getting catches until late when the game was out of hand. I’m not getting a good vibe off Allen right now.
-- Jared Cook (4-25-1/7) was a primary focus here because you beat the Ravens by avoiding that secondary but Cook too often couldn’t separate or make the tough catches. He’s not going to be a strong TE1 this season…it just looks like time is catching up to him, and Donald Parham (2-10-0/2) is seeing decent snaps and key red zone targets.
-- Another week, another Chargers-DST gets stomped. 40+ allowed to CLE Week 5. 30+ here for Baltimore. I keep saying how good they are, and then they get pushed around…what gives?
The fall coincides with the Chargers getting banged up at linebacker, and then facing the #1 and #4 run games in the NFL the past two weeks…and losing the battles to them. A break coming on the schedule ahead, except for Week 10 v. MIN might be another run game problem they can’t handle. They need Kenneth Murray back, bad.
Let’s see how they fare with a week off and facing NE and PHI Weeks 8-9…two decent run teams/good O-Lines (when healthy). Dallas is a top run team in the NFL, and LAC held them down Week 2.
Snap Counts of Interest:
51 = Brown
45 = Bateman
34 = Duvernay
26 = Latavius
22 = Le’Veon
21 = Devonta
36 = J Cook
26 = Parham
51 = K Allen
40 = Guyton
29 = Palmer
20 = Mk Williams
34 = Ekeler
18 = Kelley
08 = J Jackson
- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 6: Titans 34, Bills 31
RC and I seem to have somewhat differing opinions about how this game went and the state of the two teams. RC believes that Tennessee came in and really took it to the Bills. He thinks they played a great game and really grabbed hold of the AFC South with an impressive, season-defining win.
It's hard to argue with that...but I'm going to try.
Let me start by saying the game I saw went a bit differently. I saw the Bills look mostly unstoppable on offense all night. And I saw a Titans group that kept getting lucky break after lucky break to keep them in it. A 76 yard run straight up the gut by Derrick Henry where he was virtually untouched, a deep pass that bounced off a defender's helmet that Julio somehow adjusted to and caught on the sidelines, untimely penalties on the Bills, a 4th and goal stop by the Titans defense on a Josh Allen sneak...there were multiple lucky breaks for the Titans that all piled up and allowed them to win this game.
I'm not saying they didn't play well. They did. What I'm saying is I believe if you played this game 10 times the Titans win maybe 3-4 of them. I think this was one of those somewhat fluky wins that decent teams sometimes get over elite teams. It happens every year multiple times. Not every win has to “mean” something or announce some new reality for a team.
I don't think the evaluation of either team changes all that much. To my eyes Buffalo is still one of the 2-3 best teams in the league, in competition with the Cardinals primarily. Tennessee seems like the same solid but unspectacular team they've been for the past couple years. I think they win 10 or 11 games, the AFC South, and then get busted in the playoffs by a better team...possibly Buffalo. At the end of the day they are still a decent but not great offense (8th in points and 11th in yards) based around a power running attack and a mediocre to terrible defense (24th in points and yards). That's not the makeup of a great team.
I still don't even think the AFC South is a for sure lock for Tennessee. They have to be the favorites, but they've been the favorites all along. They still have several difficult games coming up, and the Colts are improving rapidly. This was a massive boost to Tennessee's chances, winning arguably their toughest matchup all year, but it was still just one game, and I don't believe it heralds a changing of the guard.
*RC NOTE: I think this Titans win is huge, even if lucky in some respects, for the AFC South big picture...this was a suspected loss that the Titans stole to stay 2-games ahead of wobbly Indy. Had the Titans lost, the Colts are a game back. Tennessee keeps a two-game lead here, which is an obvious edge. When the Colts play Buffalo it will be at Buffalo Week 11...you know they’ll lose that...another reason this win was so key for TENN.
Fantasy Notes
--Derrick Henry (20-143-3, 2-13-0/3) is an institution..just note half his yards came on a single weird carry after he was touched at the line and then the safeties took a bad angle on him. On his other 19 carries he got a grand total of 67 yards. That's not a knock on Henry so much as a compliment to the Buffalo defense and a commentary on how lucky Tennessee got here.
--As I said last week AJ Brown (7-91-0/9) looks fine, but now your buy low window is closed.
*RC NOTE: I was anti-AJB last week. Didn't like the way he looked, etc, didn;t like his 2021 output. All was well 2nd-half here. No more Brown worries for me.
--Brown certainly looks better than Julio Jones (3-59-0/5) who was nearly shut out but for a miracle catch after an underthrown Tannehill pass hit a defender in the back of his helmet. Not sure what's going on with Julio, but he just doesn't look like he's moving like he usually does. I'm guessing he's still not 100% recovered from his injuries.
As long as he doesn't aggravate them he might be the new buy low on this team. At full strength he's going to pull in 7-8 targets a game, about 5 catches for 70 yards, and a shot at a TD. That's solid work. I have no idea how available he might be right now since his name holds so much value, but if you can get him in a cheap deal I think it could be a nice upgrade depending on what else you have.
--Ryan Tannehill (18-29 for 216 yards, 0 TD/1 INT, 2-3-1) continues to put up boring numbers in fantasy, BUT this was against a very good Buffalo defense. I think this might actually be a sign that he could be making a return to his very solid numbers from 2019-2020. Now that Brown seems to be fully healthy and Julio is on the mend, the team won't have to lean quite so hard into Henry. If you need a bye week QB or a good #2 Tannehill could be your guy. Love his chances to explode this week against a pitiful Kansas City defense.
--There's nothing more to add on Josh Allen (35-47 for 353 yards, 3 TD/1 INT, 9-26-0). He wasn't perfect here and easily could have had another 50 yards and 1-2 TD's with a few more accurate passes, but it's just nitpicking (like how everyone is taking a rare chance to jab Mahomes right now). These guys are the elite of the elite, and in my opinion, nearly beyond reproach. Allen is currently leading all QB's in fantasy and will be in the running for top guy all year. Hope you bought him on our suggestion when the national media was bashing him the first couple weeks of the season.
--It was just a matter of time until Stefon Diggs (5-89-1/11) had a big game. It could have been a lot bigger. He and Justin Jefferson have been on the verge of huge games all year and just haven't been able to connect so far. They will soon.
--The biggest fantasy news from this game though was that Dawson Knox hurt his hand and will be out for a few weeks. I hate that for all the Knox owners as RC and I have been pushing his arrival recently, but sometimes these things happen.
*RC NOTE: I am led to believe this Knox injury will have out 4+ weeks...possibly 6+. Broken hand for a receiver is no small thing. Buffalo has no reason to rush him back, and then if you see BUF trade for like Evan Engram...you know they’re taking their time PLUS it will be competition for Knox upon his return.
--In Knox's absence there are two players that are really helped. Emmanuel Sanders (5-91-0/8) and Cole Beasley (7-81-1/9) get a bump up for now. Both guys have been on and off usable, but it's been hard to pin them down. The Bills have been blowing teams out so badly that they don't always need to throw. These shootout games are best for Sanders and Beasley. I like both to be a bit more consistent while Knox is out. Of the two I'd rather have Sanders. He is more consistently involved. Beasley is more matchup dependent.
IDP Notes
--David Long (14 tackles) has started the last two games after Jayon Brown got hurt, and in those two games he's racked up 26 tackles. The two obvious questions are: who is David Long and can he keep getting numbers like this?
Long was a 6th round pick out of West Virginia in the 2019 draft. He was extremely productive as a 3-year starter, amassing 252 tackles, 14 sacks, and 40 tfl's. So why did such a productive player fall to the 6th round? He's pretty small, checking in at 5'11” 227 lbs.
In 2020 he started 5 games at the end of the year, and in those games he had 6, 5, 12, 9, and 8 tackles (40 total, 8/g). This streak is no accident. Keep an eye on Brown's return though because that could signal the end of the line for Long. He definitely deserves more playing time after this though. We'll have to see what the team decides to do.
Snap Counts of Interest
71 = Emmanuel Sanders
67 = Cole Beasley
62 = Stefon Diggs
42 = Zach Moss
35 = Devin Singletary
42 = AJ Brown
35 = Julio Jones
29 = Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 7: Falcons 30, Dolphins 28
Two bad teams playing a game that ended up being a good/fun game to watch…the Falcons kept taking two-score leads, and Miami kept crawling back in, and then the Dolphins took the lead late…but too much time left for the Falcons to get down in FG range and kick an easy game winner as time expired.
The Computer/I had picked Atlanta to win but Miami to cover +2.5…so, everyone in my house went home happy with this one.
Miami has lost three games by late field goal now…losers of six in a row, (1-6) on the year. My win total ‘under’ bet on Miami is nearly locked in…unless they win out. So, everyone in my house went home a winner after this one! Did I already say that? Well, it’s doubly true – loved this game outcome as a bettor.
Miami is headed towards a 2-4 win season on their current trajectory…but that could all change with a looming Deshaun Watson deal next week. We’ll see if the Miami fortunes are about to change soon.
Atlanta has crawled to (3-3)…you know, good quality wins over NYG, NYJ, and MIA (teams a combined 3-17). They have an OK matchup this week with Carolina…and then the schedule will really start to get them from there. We see ATL finishing with 4-5 wins. The schedule is going to be unkind to this secretly really bad team.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- I definitely have to lead-off with this: This was the best NFL game I’ve seen Tua Tagovailoa (32-40 for 291 yards, 4 TDs/2 INTs, 4-29-0) work/play. He was a machine working those quick baby throws (from 0-5 yards from the line of scrimmage).
In the past, Tua has run the baby throw offense and been erratic or too slow on decisions too often…but in this game he was like a robot snapping off perfect 1–5-yard bullet timing passes and short slants and short comebacks all over. It was really humming. It’s darn near unstoppable when it works the way it did versus Atlanta.
The problem is whenever Tua has to throw under pressure, or that quick throw isn’t there, or Tua needs to throw it deeper…he just closes his eyes and floats one out and prays…thus, the 32 completed passes for 291 yards, just 7.3 yards per completion on a near 300+ yard day.
Whatever you want to call it…it was working here. The Falcons couldn’t figure it out or put needed pressure on Tua, so it was like he was playing easy 7-on-7 ball most of this game.
It’s really been two weeks in a row of it for Tua. If you can keep Tua in this rhythm…in this system…and well-protected, he’ll slice you with a thousand paper cuts. 32 and 33 pass completions in a game his last two starts. 310.0 yards passing per game and 6 TDs/3 INTs in those two games. It will be interesting to see if he can keep it up against Buffalo, in the colder temps and with possible drizzle.
My guess is…no, he cannot. But after that, maybe…maybe as the starter for Carolina or Washington as well.
-- As long as Tua is doing his thing, then Jaylen Waddle (7-83-0/8) and Mike Gesicki (7-85-1/8) will continue to flourish. Waddle is playing pitch & catch with Tua, and could lead the league in catches if they stay together…while Gesicki is making some really complicated, under duress catches. Gesicki has become one of the best receiving TEs in the game.
It’s not impossible to think Gesicki will be the #2-3 scoring TE in PPR this season…as long as Tua remains there.
-- Matt Ryan (25-40 for 336 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT) is working much better since Week 2…
Weeks 1-2 = (0-2) record, 2 TDs/3 INTs
Weeks 3-7 = (3-1) record, 10 TDs/1 INTs…it helps that he has faced mostly all bottom tier pass defenses
A matchup with a top 5 pass defense in Carolina Week 8, but then back to bottom 10 pass defenses…NO and DAL after that.
-- The rise of Matt Ryan is being aided by the rise of his best two players…
1) Cordarrelle Patterson (14-60-1, 2-1-0/5) has taken over as the starting and main runner of the ball RB, and he looks terrific. Weird receiving game here…passes tipped at the line or covered tight by Xavien Howard a few times. I don’t think there is any cause for receiving alarm.
2) Kyle Pitts (7-163-0/8) took a HUGE leap forward in this game. Pitts is becoming Ryan’s go-to option…he flung several prayers to Pitts racing deep, and then Pitts would keep making surreal catches while tightly covered.
Arthur Smith has finally stopped with the TE/blocking nonsense with Pitts and just has him as basically a WR now…which is what we wanted right away, but it’s here now in Week 7.
Pitts has officially arrived as a top 1-2 TE for Fantasy.
Where are all the FF analysts who gleefully warned that rookie TEs don’t produce TE1 seasons…because they have a plot chart and cool infographic to show you the past 20 years of rookie TE performance in the NFL/FF? It doesn’t matter what the past is…the NFL changes/evolves every 2-3 years, and Kyle Pitts has no historical comp.
He is the magical unicorn rookie.
-- Russell Gage (4-67-1/6) returned from injury and had a nice game. All the attention on Ridley-Pitts-CPatt will make Gage an attractive WR3/Flex option, especially when garbage time happens…and it should happen a lot for ATL.
-- I thought Myles Gaskin (15-67-0, 4-10-1/4) was being quasi-benched for Salvon Ahmed (7-26-0, 2-26-0/2) after watching the Week 6 game where Ahmed was in late for the comeback effort. But it was Malcolm Brown who actually started this game and ran the whole 1st-series, but then got hurt and Gaskin filtered in and we’re back to Gaskin as lead…I guess.
-- Falcons rookie SAF Richie Grant (6 tackles) played a season high 79% of the snaps in this game. He’s been playing more the last two games. He was our #1 rated safety for this 2021 NFL Draft.
I didn’t see anything on tape here that got me excited that IDP usage was imminent, however. He still looks a bit lost but should wash out of that in a few weeks and we can reevaluate. He’s more a cover safety than a tackler anyway.
Snap Counts of Interest:
61 = Waddle
39 = Hollins
30 = Pr Williams
19 = Ford
46 = Gaskin
22 = Ahmed
05 = Brown
46 = CPatt
38 = MK Davis
46 = Ridley
40 = Gage
14 = Sharpe
12 = Zaccheaus
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 6: Vikings 34, Panthers 28 OT
I don’t know how this was close…or how this went to OT. The Vikings were pretty well handling the Panthers all game, but the Panthers D was nails early -- holding MIN to field goals halting goal-to-go situations to keep it from getting out of hand immediately. Carolina a blocked punt for a TD later 2nd-half to aid the cause, and then as this game was about over (down 8/under 2-minutes) Darnold threw for a miracle 4th & 10 conversion to keep the game tying drive alive…then Patrick Peterson got hurt and left the game on said drive with Carolina scoring that late TD and adding 2-pointer, and Minnesota drove down with less than minute for a makeable field goal…that was missed. Justice was served when Minnesota got the ball in OT and went right down the field for the game winning TD.
Minnesota hits their bye week at (3-3)…could’ve been (5-1), could’ve been (1-5). This is a pretty good but erratic team, a ‘something is missing’ good team that could beat any team in the NFL. They’ve had a tough schedule so far, and it stays tough after their bye. We see them finishing between 9-11 wins…a shot to win the NFC North title, but more likely is a strong/no-one-wants-to-play-them wild card.
Carolina (3-3) has lost three-straight…all games they had a chance to win. Sam Darnold is killing them, and I think they know that now. Everyone says Deshaun Watson to Miami, but I think Carolina is going to make a run at this and try and launch themselves as the future of the NFC South.
If they make that trade this week, they would rush Watson in as fast as they could…NFL allowing. Sam is dead and they know it. Carolina could send multiple picks and C.J. Henderson and Robby Anderson to Houston for him. Houston could then trade Robby before the deadline. The NFL is rarely that creative, so it’s just passing daydream thoughts by me…that won’t come close to coming true. But a boy can dream.
Carolina is headed to an 8-9 win season with Sam, but that all changes depending upon IF Deshaun arrives…and WHEN he’d be allowed to play.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Chuba Hubbard (16-61-1, 1-4-0/3) had a nice enough game here. He’s working like any random OK RB would thrown into a situation. The growing issue with him is he’s dropping passes/is a problem on 3rd-downs blocking, etc.
Royce Freeman doesn’t seem 100% ‘right’ or lost his athleticism during the pandemic…so, he’s not touching the ball much. So, because Hubbard is having catch issues and Freeman is a zero…the Panthers signed Reggie Bonnafon (a fave of mine who never gets a real chance) back to their roster (he’s been there on and off for 2+ years).
I’m always hoping Bonnafon gets a real chance, but likely he won’t see much action…and may get cut once CMC returns, but just note Bonnafon is there if Hubbard gets hurt and if CMC is out longer than expected (aka his typical).
-- We saw the debut of rookie WR Shi Smith (2-20-0/2) in this game for Carolina. He’s a really good slot-type WR who will be a starter in 2022, but a #4-5 WR in 2021. However, Terrace Marshall has a concussion and Brandon Zylstra went on IR…so, Smith make a splash this week as a forced in #3 WR.
-- FYI…Tyler Conklin (3-71-0/5) had his hands on a short TD pass early on, but good coverage batted it away. Had he caught that TD, he would have been the #10 TE in half-PPR PPG since Week 3…ahead of Darren Waller (#12).
Not saying he’s a TE1 stud…just saying he’s one of 15-20 NFL starting TEs vying from the #3-15 spot in the TE scoring rankings any given stretch of the season.
Conklin is the 11th most targeted TE on the season to date, #11 in total catches. #12 in yards.
The 26th most owned TE in Fantasy, currently.
-- Dalvin Cook makes Kirk Cousins (33-48 for 373 yards, 3 TDs/0 INTs) go from a QB2 to a QB1. When Cook missed/was hurt the prior three games (essentially), Cousins threw for 5 TDs/3 INTs. With Cook playing full, Cousins has racked up 8 TDs/0 INTs and two 300+ yard efforts in those 3 games.
It’s like what Saquon does to Daniel Jones…sucks without Saquon, is plausible/decent-looking with him.
-- K.J. Osborn (6-78-1/7) scored the game winning TD. I really like what I see from KJO, but you can’t get too confident in him because Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen are always more preferred. However…
That Cousins-Cook affect I mentioned? Osborn averaged 2.8 rec. and 22.0 yards with Cook out/hurt. In the games with Cook fully in, where Cousins went nuts…6.0 rec., 81.7 yards, 0.67 TDs per game…a legit WR1.5-2.0 with Cook playing fully, per early trends.
Osborn has equal to or more catches, yards, and TDs this season than the following WRs (who have played 6 games): Mecole Hardman, Laviska Shenault, Darnell Mooney, Rondale Moore, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Allen Robinson. Yet, I bet without looking…he’s the least owned of them all in Fantasy (7-8% owned in the tracking I see).
-- There was one fresh STANDOUT player for me from this game…and that was Carolina rookie CB Keith Taylor (10 tackles, 3 PDs).
Taylor was going toe-to-toe with Jefferson and Thielen all game. So much so, Cousins was not really going his way wherever he was. Cousins went after A.J. Bouye mostly. Donte Jackson some. When forcing it against Taylor, half the time Taylor was glued to the WR, but they made a spectacular catch on the play. The other catches around Taylor were him way off and a quick tunnel screen or slant was thrown harmlessly in front of him. Big time showing for Taylor here.
Taylor should be a starter with Stephon Gillmore and maybe Donte Jackson (with C.J. Henderson possibly traded again). Gillmore-Horn-Taylor will be a badass coverage unit in 2022. I liked Taylor a lot on scouting his tape pre-Senior Bowl/Combine time. I thought he was a top coverage prospect, but he didn’t test great (but was fine), and we had to discount his metrics grade some. He looks like a future strong CB, possible lockdown guy to me.
If Carolina has Gillmore-Henderson-Jackson-Taylor the rest of this season, with their great D-Line and when Shaq Thompson returns – it could be the best all-around 1-11 defensive unit in football. With a mostly great schedule Weeks 7-12. Bye Week 13.
-- Minnesota has an emerging defense too, but the loss of Patrick Peterson (who has been playing great for MIN, a career renaissance) for a few weeks is going to kill them against Dallas and Baltimore Weeks 8-9…and then Week 10 at LAC, if PP isn’t back by then.
Could be three shootouts for Kirk Cousins ahead…
Snap Counts of Interest:
48 = Hubbard
23 = Freeman
40 = I Thomas
38 = Tremble
76 = Conklin
24 = Herndon
66 = Cook
12 = Mattison
87 = Thielen
84 = Jefferson
48 = Osborn
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 6: Raiders 34, Broncos 24
Another chapter in the files of…head coaches don’t matter/they actually suppress performance…as we had the Raiders going out and scissor-kicking the Broncos in their minus-Gruden debut. Wow, what a distraction! How could the team ever go on without Jon Gruden!?!? Pretty easily it appears. These guys aren’t five years old, and Jon Gruden has many former players and co-workers have been trying to tell us all along that this guy is a car salesman, and a bad football coach – but it’s the NFL, and ESPN, so these things get covered up and you get the Gruden Grinder shoved down your throat and you will like it.
Is it always going to be myopic, no-business-sense, no real-world experience people and/or weirdos among us as NFL head coaches?
I guess it’s the same we get for politicians and CEOs, so what’s the sense in complaining? I’ll just sit back and roast them for pleasure year-after-year, as they give me a never-ending supply of material.
So, because the Raiders were so distraught and distracted by the loss of beloved Gruden…they got the opening kick and went down the field and scored a TD. Then Denver responded to tie it. The next thing you knew it was 31-10 Raiders going into the 4th-quarter. Denver added a bunch of nonsense against a prevent defense to make it seem closer than it was.
Denver is dying, and I warned after the (3-0) start…that something wasn’t right. The Computer was flashing signals. The Computer flashed Cleveland and Denver problems/warning signs after Week 3…and the two teams have a combined (1-5) record since (after starting a combined 5-1). The Computer sees Cleveland starting to pull out of the danger zone, but is not seeing as much hope for Denver to do the same…but some minor blips of hope. Now those two teams face each other this week with A LOT on the line.
Denver may have gotten a break this week on TNF with the Browns missing their entire starting backfield and possibly their main two starting WRs (ignoring DPJ, who is their best…but they don’t think so). If Denver can steal a win at Cleveland this week, and then beat Washington Week 8…they would be (5-3) and needing to win four of their final 9 games to slip into the playoff picture at the end – but their schedule is not going to allow it. If we push them to (5-3) after Week 8, then the Computer sees them still finishing (7-10)…going (2-7) down the stretch.
The Browns are (3-3) but are a top 5 NFL team at full strength. They are like a Fantasy team that is (3-3) and having lost their last two and are facing all kinds of injuries – it’s sad when you know you’re team is really good but circumstances and schedule are killing you – the Browns job, your FF-job in that similar/near-to-it position, is to just try and win one of next 2…two of the next 4…tread water to buy time for your team to get healthy and for you to get lucky on waivers. It’s not a make a five for six player swap/wild trade to try and solve all the issues in one week (which you won’t). Sometimes, you gotta take these FF-punches…lose a round or two in the fight while wearing your opponent down, preserving your energy and learning about your opponents – and then at the right time, you get healed up/rested up and go on the offensive.
If the Browns can go (1-1) the next two weeks, stay at .500 (4-4), while getting Baker-Chubb-Hunt-Landry-OBJ healthy…then they can go on the offensive again starting Week 9 at Cincy. And maybe they only get a wild card instead of the division because of this bad luck…but Cleveland getting to the playoffs fully healthy is a dangerous thing. Your job in Fantasy, if you’re scuffling now to things out of your full control…keep treading water, healing up, landing a surprise find in the next 1-2-3 weeks, and hit a stride in the playoffs. There’s a lot of season left…get to the playoffs is the priority…winning the division would be nice, but you gotta get to the playoffs and you still have plenty of time to heal and to maneuver your way there – you gotta believe it and not panic into it.
We project Cleveland to finish with 9-10 wins and a wild card at this stage. The Ravens have caught all the breaks for the AFC North race, the Browns have not.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- What a game for Courtland Sutton (8-94-1/14)! About 2.5 quarters in, I thought he was going to be a dud. But Denver went on a tear against a prevent defense, led by Sutton.
The thing about this game was – Sutton left 4 more catches for 100+ yards and another TD on the table with just-missed throws/attempts. Key thing is…the attempts, the intent is HIGH.
Sutton is a WR1 talent that I worry has a WR1.5-2.0 future in this offense. So, I’m willing to explore trading Sutton (if he’s excess) to fill any other needs or sell high and make a big move for upgraded talent/depth.
I’m not dumping him. I don’t fear a fall for him as much as I do Deebo. I’m just exploring my sell options to see if I get what I WANT, or I just stick with him.
-- Big game for Noah Fant (9-97-1/11)…a bit in the same way Sutton did – got rolling as the defense softened off a big lead/cushion, but it still counted nicely for FF.
Since Week 2, Fant is averaging 10.2 half-PPR PPG and Darren Waller (5-59-0/5) is at 9.0 PPG in that same stretch. Watching them work, Fant looked as athletic and important, or more so, than Waller here.
My great fear from last year, and into this season on Waller is coming true – that he’d be just a good option for Carr/Vegas, not the elite one…he was just a nice top 6-10 TE in FF last year for a half a season, then finished real strong to puff his final numbers (which is fine but it all came in a small stretch late). This season, the huge Week 1 and then a bunch of TE2 work the last five weeks. It’s not a Waller issue, it’s a Carr issue. Carr is spreading it around and no one receiver is predictably prospering for FF.
Most people would kill to have Waller over Fant, which makes Waller a great sell high. I’m not sure I wouldn’t rather have Fant…and if that’s the case, knowing I could get Fant (or Schultz) + ___ for Waller, I’m into that redraft upgrade. Nothing against Waller, everything against his usage/output pattern. I’m fine sticking with him, but I wouldn’t hesitate to trade him hot either.
Since Week 2, Waller and Fant both have been targeted 34 times…the 4th most among TEs. You know who #1 is (Kelce), but did you know #2 is Mike Gesicki (40)?
-- Just a quick aside…I’m a fan of WR Kendall Hinton (5-37-0/5), since scouting him as one of the 10 best WR talents from the 2020 NFL Draft. That statement seems ludicrous, unless you know how good a scout I am…and I am. Well, Hinton finally is getting a shot (after mass WR injury) and he’s playing great football. He’s working the slot and making clutch catches (has great hands) – he’s kinda becoming that Curtis Samuel 3rd-down assassin-like that Teddy had/made in 2020 with Carolina.
Not sure that FF gold is coming from it, but just know Hinton is rising in snaps and catches every week the past three weeks with Hamler gone. But when Jerry Jeudy comes back…it’s over.
-- If you ignore the game where Teddy played a half and left with injury, in his other 5 games…he’s thrown for 260+ yards in four of the 5 games…11 TDs in those five games.
-- Not for nothing, but I’m not sure there’s a running back I enjoy (as a scout of such things) watching run the ball more than Javonte Williams (11-53-0, 3-15-0/3). The guy is going to be a workhorse star of the future…I just wish that future was soon.
However, because it’s not happened yet…he’s getting ‘obtainable’. And for Dynasty, I want to obtain. For redraft, I do want him as well…but only on the cheap. His redraft price is sliding away, down…and that’s a good time to buy. But his touches are only RB2.5 stuff right now. But he’ll pop one day, and then there’s no looking back.
-- Speaking of run games…
We have a new internal O-Line grading system we’re playing with this year. The Computer says there are four ‘F’ grade O-Lines for the run game right now…
#4) Las Vegas (F+)
#3) New England (F)
#2) Houston (F)
#1/the worst) NY Giants (F)
The Patriots and Texans are getting there through injury, as you could say NYG has as well (a little bit) but the Raiders have earned this through offseason mismanagement. The other three have hope that they get injured OL assets back soon. Las Vegas just stinks.
Josh Jacobs (16-53-1, 1-29-0/1) yards per carry in each of his 4 games this season: 3.4, 3.1, 3.2, 3.3. Wow. That’s no Bueno…but goes to reflect the pool O-Line grades we have.
-- Bryan Edwards (2-67-0/4) had his typical game. He did the following in the 4th-quarter, on 3rd & 6 which really blew Denver’s comeback hopes with this dagger: https://youtu.be/gsAmA54Ws8Y
Still, Edwards is a ghost for 3+ quarters then makes his 4th-quarter gem play and leaves on a high note but a low game for FF. https://youtu.be/f3ALoSiJaEE
No progress for Edwards becoming anything stable, hopeful, relevant for FF still.
Snap Counts of Interest:
72 = Patrick
72 = Fant
71 = Sutton
51 = Hinton
43 = Gordon
38 = Javonte
06 = Boone
36 = Jacobs
12 = Drake
08 = Richard
46 = Waller
43 = Edwards
37 = Ruggs
