- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 10: Patriots 45, Browns 7
The Browns got the ball first here and drove right down the field but stalled a bit near the goal line. Three goal line plays all thwarted, 4th & goal from the 2-3-yard line, they went for it…and got a toe-tap TD catch and took a 7-0 lead on a long, clock consuming drive. And I was SO pleased with my best bet of the week (CLE +2.5) watching it happen live Sunday.
The Patriots answered with a TD on their first drive…and then went on to score the next 45 points unanswered in a total beatdown of the Browns. Nice, best bet! Friggin’ Browns, I’m on the wrong side of them every week this year.
I think this is the dagger in the heart of the current Stefanski-Browns now and forever (under Stefanski). The Browns are wanting, trying to be the northern climate team that plays to their surroundings – trying to run the ball down people’s throats, work an efficient play action pass game off that, and have a tough-minded defense…throwback football. Well, the Patriots just took what the Browns want to do as an organization and beat them over the head with it – the Pats have a better run game, a better play action passing game, and a tougher defense. I think the Browns season and supposed ‘team of the future in the AFC’ label just died right here, right now.
The AFC North is filled with sloppy-good teams, so maybe the (5-5) Browns can get to 10 wins, or even 9, and somehow steal the division…but I don’t think so. They had their heart ripped out here and Baker is hurt, and this whole feel-good story is swirling down the drain. We see the Browns getting to 9 wins in the end and then trying to win the division through tiebreakers, but they might get to only 8 wins and finish last in this division.
The Patriots are ‘back’…kinda. They are winners of four in-a-row and have scored 25 or more points six straight games. They’re 10th in the league in PPG scored this season, but top five in PPG over the last six weeks. No more roasting Belichick from me. Never bet against Belichick is back on. Kinda.
Now, we do need to note…the list of wins/QBs the Pats have beaten is not very impressive, by and large – but they are winning, now dominating weaker teams…and that’s all you can ask for. The Pats are (6-4) and if they can go to Buffalo Week 13 and win…they might steal the AFC East. I’ll bet they don’t, and they go on to finish with 9 wins and are in the wild card hunt (with wins over CLE and LAC to help their case). Finishing with 8 wins and out of the playoffs is possible, as is 10 wins and very much in as a wild card. Weeks 12-13 vs. TEN, at BUF will tell us a lot about really good (or not) the Pats are right now.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Rhamondre Stevenson (20-100-2, 4-14-0/5) just ran over a pretty good run defense here. Stevenson willed his way to yards, running through and over people. He’s carved out a role with the Pats, when Damien Harris returns.
It will likely be a hot hand, RBBC with the intent being 60-40 Harris/Stevenson, with Brandon Bolden (3-32-0, 3-38-0/3) sprinkled in as well. But the distribution can/will change as the game flows. It’s perhaps the best three-headed monster attack in the NFL, and they are getting their O-Line back healthy at just the right time.
Stevenson should see 10+ touches per week and be a legit RB3 with upside every week.
Harris should be 10+ touches per week; maybe more 12-14 touches with limited pass game work.
Bolden will get 2-4 carries, 2-4 targets each week providing some relief.
They all look really good. They could RB1s on their own with all the touches/not sharing, but Belichick is the master of RB rotations and matchups, so it will be unpredictable week-to-week, because BB is smart about keeping opponents guessing.
-- D’Ernest Johnson (19-99-0, 7-58-0/8) made a statement in this game…more so then when he became a media discovery a couple Thursdays ago. When everyone on the Browns seemed to quit in this game, Johnson ran like his life depended upon it. He was just as good as the Stevenson-Bolden goodness on the other side.
D’E-J got on the map a few weeks ago, for the NFL…this game gives him real hope at a career/future. Cleveland can look to trade Chubb or Hunt in the offseason and sign DE-J cheap and use him as part of the duo. You’d think Hunt would be the one to go, but he is the heart and soul of this team on offense, in my book.
If I know the NFL, however, it’s likely D’E-J will get pushed to the back of the line behind Chubb-Hunt and be a ghost until his 2023 free agency. But there’s at least some pressure on the Browns to have to do something different with this backfield for 2022 – they will have to tender Johnson (a restricted free agent) higher than they would have expected.
The Browns have a ton of payroll tied up in RBs, potentially, for 2022. In 2022, Hunt will be getting $6M+ for the final year of his deal. Chubb has a 2022 friendly deal at $5M+ ($13M+ in 2023). Still, that’s $11M in two RBs and D’Ernest may command $2M+ as a restricted free agent? It’s a lot of money at a position most NFL teams have $3-5M or less in per year combined for their backfield (like the Patriots).
The Browns will likely go Chubb-Hunt 2022. Sign D’Ernest for 2022. Let Hunt go 2023. And pay D’Ernest to be the new Hunt with Chubb in 2023. That’s a long way away for D’E-J Fantasy relevance…
-- Baker Mayfield (11-21 for 73 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) isn’t looking 100% healthy but he’s trying to grit it out. I wouldn’t be shocked if they shut Baker down for a few weeks. It’s not a big FF-deal if they do, just things aren’t going to get better with Case Keenum (8-12 for 84 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) in the interim.
Baker is set to make $18M on a 5th-year option in 2022. I suspect they will keep him on that deal while drafting another QB in 2022 to replace him in 2023 when he’s an unrestricted free agent.
Baker better sign with the Browns now, for whatever he can get…and not play games. If he hits the open market, in this era…he may be shocked to see no one really wants him as their starter, especially not having to spend money on it.
-- Donovan Peoples-Jones (1-16-0/5) is showing he’s not ready to be a #1 NFL WR. Not yet. Maybe someday, but he’s never been an alpha and now he’s thrown into it, so J.C. Jackson ate him alive.
DPJ will have moments ahead, but this is a weak passing game so I’m over the high FF-hopes on him already. It seemed like a great thing until your realize he’s never been a #1 anywhere…now he is, kinda, in a bad passing game.
Bryan Edwards has been a #1 alpha, so I have more hope for him that he’ll break out eventually. DPJ…I’m not sure he’s got ‘it’ for #1 duty right now. Talented, a nice #2…not a #1…not a WR1-2 for FF. He’s a random WR3 in this stunted offense where the weather is about to turn.
-- Who is the Patriots WR to own?
Week 5 is when the Patriots really took off on offense. Let’s see what the targeting has been for the receivers since then:
19 rec. (24 targets), 339 yards, 2 TDs, 55 yds rushing, one 25-yd pass TD = Bourne (12.6 PPR PPG)
23 rec. (35 targets), 237 yards, 1 TD, 00 yds rushing, no passes = Meyers (10.5 PPR PPG)
11 rec. (23 targets), 191 yards, 1 TD, 1 yd rushing, no passes = Agholor (6.0 PPR PPG)
The move is towards Kendrick Bourne as the top WR here, FYI.
-- In that same span, Hunter Henry (4-37-2/4) has been a stiff-running TD-maker…
17 rec. (24 targets), 212 yards, 6 TDs, no rush or passing = Henry (12.4 PPR PPG)
It’s working, don’t fight it…especially for non-PPR.
-- Mac Jones (19-23 for 198 yards, 3 TDs/0 INTs) in that same span (since Week 5): 9 TDs/3 INTs with just 220.2 passing yards per game. Efficient but low-end QB2 type work.
He looks fine. He’s doing Mike White, Case Keenum, Colt McCoy type of work -- stable game manager, but he’s better at it/more talented than those guys…but he’s still a game manager for FF purposes.
-- I’ve tried to promote this Browns defense. They look great one week, and then dreadful the next. I’m going to bail out of thinking they’re a top 5 NFL defense for the time being. They’re good…nice in good matchups for FF. Nothing more. Any offensive resistance, and they wilt.
-- The Patriots defense is looking better and better, but they’ve basically gotten over on ZWilson, ZWilson, Darnold, and wounded Baker without Chubb/Keenum. Let’s not rush them too high up in reality – but at ATL Week 11 should be nice, the trouble the rest of the way until Week 17 v. JAX.
Snap Counts of Interest:
37 = Rhamondre
18 = Bolden
13 = JJ Taylor
50 = DPJ
47 = Landry
26 = Higgins
48 = Meyers
47 = Agholor
35 = N’Keal (wow, didn’t know this…he did nothing however)
29 = Bourne
- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 10: Chiefs 41, Raiders 14
Well, I guess now the Chiefs are fixed. Or more accurately, they were never broken. Sometimes teams go through slumps. Sometimes they have bad games. Sometimes the blocking is bad, receivers drop passes, the ball bounces funny...these things happen and they don't always have to mean something big. More often than not it's just flukes, random chance. Mostly these teams are who we think they are.
The Chiefs so called slump was mostly the product of a little bad luck but also they played some pretty good defenses. The Titans game was a ton of bad luck early that put them in a hole, but the Giants and Packers both have very underrated defenses. RC has been on both of them for weeks, and yet we still collectively think of them as average defenses...thus the Chiefs struggling on offense is their own fault and not them getting held down by the opponent.
Sometimes you have to step back and question your assumptions when these things happen.
Lost in the offensive discussion is the fact that the “struggling” Chiefs won 2 of those 3 games and have now clawed their way back into the lead in the AFC West...and the defense is suddenly coming on to help! They've allowed a total of 38 points over their last three wins, albeit against the Giants with half their skill position players hurt and the Packers without Rodgers. Holding the Raiders to 14 was quite impressive though, and what if Love is actually good like RC and I suspect and (just like I said above about questioning your assumptions) what if it was a suddenly good KC defense that held him down?!
It's natural to assume that the KC defense is bad and thus Love is bad, but that might not be accurate anymore. If the KC defense has indeed made a turn and are now a decent group, then this team is about to get a rocket fuel jump and start crushing everyone on their way to another AFC West title.
This next week against the Cowboys is a huge test. Beat them soundly and they might cruise through their last 6 games with ease. Lose and they fall to 6-5 and leave the Chargers room to catch them. I don't think that's going to happen though. I think the Chiefs win this game and lose at most one, possibly two, more games.
The Raiders had a wonderful start to the season going 3-0 and getting everyone all excited, but in hindsight it wasn't that impressive a run. They had to mount a comeback against an ok Ravens team, got a good win against a poor Steelers squad, and struggled with the terrible Dolphins. Since then they've gone 2-4 and are quickly falling back into mediocrity. I've said it all year, this team just doesn't have the firepower necessary to compete with the better teams.
Looking at the schedule I see another 4 or 5 losses coming most likely, possibly even 6. The only team they will be clear favorites over is Washington. Every other game looks competitive if they aren't the outright underdog. Prepare for another 7 or 8 win season Raiders fans.
Fantasy Notes
--Guess Patrick Mahomes (35-50 for 406 yards, 5 TD/0 INT) didn't forget how to play football or have the league figure him out.
Who would have thought that the greatest QB in NFL history didn't suddenly get shut down forever? How stupid was that argument, really? When have we ever seen an elite QB magically disappear from the landscape because the league “figured him out”? That's not even a thing, and suddenly you have analysts and fans claiming he's done for good? I think that has to be the single dumbest thing I've ever heard said about football.
Guess a couple of low scoring wins, not even losses but actual wins, will make people jump to some radical conclusions. Never forget that humans are rather dumb herd animals and will overreact to the tiniest bit of potentially bad news. It doesn't even have to actually be bad, but if people think something is bad they will run off a cliff to avoid it. These are the moments where FFM is ready to step in and profit off of herd stupidity.
I bet a few of our readers even managed to swing trades for Mahomes the past week or two. Think about that! The immortal Patrick Mahomes, the greatest weapon in all of fantasy, the golden boy, was available for trade, was being dumped on you as if he was hot garbage, all because people ignored his entire career of success because of 3 not great weeks!
If you were able to get a deal done for him, especially in dynasty, this past week then you have my congratulations. You just stole the greatest asset in fantasy and can now compete every single year for the next 10 years because of this one move.
--The “return” of Mahomes means that Tyreek and Kelce are back to elite status at their respective positions. No questions asked.
--Wish Mahomes would use CEH the way he used Darrel Williams (11-43-0, 9-101-1/9) in the passing game here. Here's the thing, a lot of analysts are going to say this is a sign that Williams is actually a better player/receiver than CEH with the logic being “well if CEH could do this then they would have already done it.” That's nonsense. Coaches do stupid shit all the time. Just look around the league. How many years was Cordarrelle Patterson completely wasted before he was unleashed by a coach with the eyes to see what he had?
CEH isn't the greatest back ever, but he's better than Williams. On the year CEH is averaging 4.7 ypc on 14.75 carries per game in his four healthy games. Williams is averaging a mere 3.6 ypc on the year and 13.8 carries per game during his five games as the lead back.
The main difference is that Williams has been fortunate to grab 5 total TD's during his lead time while CEH only got 2 and neither of them on the ground.
The only other difference is that during two of the past three games, Williams began to be used more in the passing game, possibly as a response to the two high safety looks everyone is throwing at the Chiefs these days.
I think it would be foolish to assume there won't be a plan to use CEH similarly upon his return. It's working and he has the skills to play in the passing game. Go look at his final year with Burrow at LSU for proof. If CEH returns to his usual 14.5 carries per game but also starts getting 5 or 6 targets per game and a little bit of TD regression then we're suddenly looking at an RB1 the rest of the year.
The only question is if he'll return to a split role with Williams after he's played so well (which is what most analysts are warning against). I think you know the answer to that. The Chiefs will go right back to CEH as the lead. He's never going to be a 70% usage guy, and that's fine. He'll get plenty of numbers as a 60/40 guy. He just needed the TD's and a few more catches to jump up the fantasy charts, and I believe that opportunity is about to come.
CEH could have been available on waivers or in easy trade for weeks...or right now, still. He's been hurt for weeks, somewhat ineffectual for fantasy when he was healthy (to the point of getting made fun of), and Williams put up a couple of flashy games that is scaring people into thinking this will be a true split backfield. I say go nab him now ahead of the curve and sit on him. It doesn't hurt to take a look, and there's a ton of upside if he pops the way I think he might. There's a decent chance he comes off IR this week against the Cowboys, but he should be back for sure in week 12.
--Byron Pringle (4-46-1/5) has finally ascended to the #2 WR role behind Hill and rightly so. It only took them this long to figure out he's their next best option. At least the change has finally been made though. This is another contributing factor to the improvement in KC's offense. Andy Reid may be a slow learner, but at least he eventually learns. Doubt it's worth much for fantasy, but maybe he can pull down WR4 numbers now? It's something.
--Josh Gordon is such a steal! He's a monster! He'll dominate with Mahomes....yeah, no catches, no targets, he really matters, huh?
--This was the first time all year I've seen a decent connection between Carr and Bryan Edwards (3-88-1/4). It's not enough for me to jump on the train...yet. I'm watching closely though. Trouble is that if he pops a huge game out of nowhere, there's been enough hype that he'll get snatched up on waivers before we can grab him. You have to get him a week early.
I don't think it's this week against a tough Bengals secondary, but perhaps the week after against the Cowboys? We'll see.
--The real top WR for now is Hunter Renfrow (7-46-1/9) as we've said all year. He is Carr's Edelman or Allen's Beasley. It won't work every week, but more often than not he's good for some safe ppr points.
--Where oh where has Darren Waller (4-24-0/7) gone? He had one great week and because it was a monster effort the first game of the year everyone has been duped into starting him every week in the vain hope that he's going to go crazy again. I do think he'll pop ahead at some point because he's still a very good player, but you wasted a lot of weeks waiting for it.
--Man does Josh Jacobs (7-16-0, 5-20-0/5) suck. Remember way back in 2019 and 2020 as a hotshot rookie and 2nd year “breakout” star when he was rushing for 1000 yards and 10+ TD's on a ton of volume while not being very effective? Me too. Funny how a year can change things. Sure would suck if Najee Harris had a similar career arc...just remember this next time you think Najee is untouchable and the #1 dynasty asset without a doubt.
--I'm not even going to talk about DeSean Jackson's fumble...if you haven't seen it, go watch. I don't know what this guy is doing or why the Raiders signed him.
IDP Notes
--Sorry RC, but Nick Bolton (4 tackles, 1 tfl) and his huge tackle counts might be gone and it's a good thing for this defense as a whole. I love Bolton as a run defender, but he's been a liability in the passing game all year. The last two weeks his snap counts have been drastically cut down to around 40% and suddenly the KC defense looks much better on the whole.
*RC NOTE: Yes, it looks like time to reel it back in on Bolton if KC is reeling him back in snp counts.
--One guy not losing snaps is Denzel Perryman (11 tackles), also known as the NFL's leading tackler. The man has been on fire all year. And to think, he was signed as a free agent by Carolina after the Chargers didn't want to keep him, then Carolina cut him and he was signed by the Raiders. DeVondre Campbell was available forever this offseason after Arizona cut him and he signed for a pittance. Joe Schobert was traded for a song...you think maybe the NFL has an issue evaluating LB talent? I'm beginning to think so.
*RC NOTE: Bolton should be, has been for a bit, KC’s Perryman...run game, high tackle counts, pass game liability...but Bolton is getting pulled back on the leash it appears.
Snap Counts of Interest
56 = Tyreek Hill
46 = Byron Pringle
33 = Josh Gordon
26 = Demarcus Robinson
45 = Darrel Williams
20 = Jerick McKinnon
11 = Derrick Gore
49 = Darren Waller
21 = Foster Moreau
46 = Zay Jones
43 = Bryan Edwards
39 = Hunter Renfrow
9 = DeSean Jackson
31 = Josh Jacobs
17 = Kenyan Drake
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 10: Titans 23, Saints 21
Week 9, my favorite game to watch was the Giants v. Raiders because it was two solid teams playing all out. Two teams that may not make the playoffs, but you don’t want to play them because they are tough and capable.
I feel like Week 10’s version of that Week 9 game, only with better teams, was this NO-TEN game. Two physical/very tough teams that just pounded each other all game and it could’ve gone either way, but the Titans pulled it out in the end.
I’m not going to micro-discuss the awful penalties called in this game against the Saints, but this was bad officiating tipping an advantage to the Titans – but regardless of that, either team could’ve won. They’re evenly matched, good teams.
The Titans jump to (8-2) with the win, winners of six straight games. They could’ve easily lost three of those 6 games, but they pulled them out with some luck in the end. The Titans are headed to 12-14 wins and a good chance to be the #1 seed in the AFC.
The Saints have now lost two in a row to fall to (5-4), and a not-easy schedule ahead. If the Saints lose at Philly this week…the Saints are in big trouble with BUF-DAL right after that. We project the Saints to beat Philly, then probably lose two more with BUF-DAL…and then collect three wins in their last 5 games to get to (9-8) with a chance at a wild card. Week 17 hosting Carolina might be their playoff in/out moment.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The Titans backfield report…
D’Onta Foreman (11-30-0, 2-48-0/2) is CLEARLY the best RB the Titans have and he has become ‘the lead’ despite the fact that AP gets to ‘start’. The Saints have a great run defense, so none of the RBs racked big numbers…but Foreman is clearly the best of the trio and is getting the majority of the touches.
Snap counts in this game:
21 = Foreman
20 = Peterson
16 = McNichols
Adrian Peterson (8-21-0, 1-0-0/1) has a very low (2.3) yards per carry so far in 2021 but watching him on tape – he can still ‘go’/move, he just offers straight ahead running whereas Foreman is bigger, faster, better in the pass game and is a dump truck-sized RB slamming into tacklers. The low ypc here was more about the Saints great run defense than it was any AP age issues.
Jeremy McNichols (4-7-0, 1-1-0/3) is clearly the worst option of the three guys. He’s totally flopped his chance to seize a bigger role in this backfield. He’s mostly in for 3rd-down/pass routes and he dropped two passes in this game, one a tough catch but shoulda-been-caught TD. He looks very stiff as a pass catcher. Foreman may start honing in some hurry-up passing game action if he’s not careful.
This will likely be a three-headed monster backfield right into the playoffs, but gimme Foreman as the one who could really break out as the strongest FF-piece at some point.
-- There was another Titans revelation player here…WR Marcus Johnson (5-100-0/6). He looks like the Titans best WR…better than A.J. Brown (1-16-0/4) who drops every other pass in 2021, it seems.
I have said this before about Johnson…that he was the best looking WR for a team – it was with the Colts in 2019 for a week or two. He always impresses when he gets the chance, but then gets lost in the shuffle soon after…lost by me because he gets lost by his team’s coaches. He has an opportunity to shine here with Julio out the next few weeks.
Marcus Lattimore shuts down Mike Evans every time they meet, but Lattimore could not hang with Johnson hardly at all. It was shocking to watch.
-- Trevor Siemian (19-34 for 298 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) is starting to flirt with danger on his passes (throwing into tight windows/near INTs)…but he’s getting plenty of them through. He’s playing OK, but I still say that when Taysom Hill (2-2 for 11 yards, 3-23-0, 1-15-0/2) enters the game at QB, everything changes for the better – the tempo rises, and Hill usually just runs for 5+ yards every tote.
If Siemian flops against Philly Week 11, and the Saints lose…Sean Payton will have a gun to his head to make a change going into the BUF-DAL stretch…because Siemian will get killed there.
I have a feeling a bad Siemian moment is about to happen…a 2-3 pick game and he loses confidence, and it spirals on him, and then Payton makes a desperate move to Taysom. If Hill gets this job, he’s a better Cam Newton…a 4pts per pass TD QB1.
-- Deonte Harris (3-84-0/4, 1-9-0) looked great once again, but still too low on snaps played (39%) and low targeting, but higher output. He also lost a catch near the goal line late in the game due to an illegal formation…it was a key catch and 1st-down conversion but wiped off the board…or he would have had 100+ total yards in the game with 4 catches…not bad output at all.
-- Adam Trautman (5-32-0/6) looks terrible to me. Super stiff and ineffective. He got a bunch of targets (with TEN having two starting LBs out this game), but low output from them. He’s unathletic. No one’s three-cone is more of a lie than his (6.78).
A sweet matchup Week 11 at PHI, but I’m not sure he’ll really be able to cash in. Juwan Johnson (2-36-0/3) might be the one to take advantage for a game/moment.
-- DE Marcus Davenport (3 tackles, 2.0 sacks, 2 TFLs) is on fire lately, and watching him isolated in this game…he was a dominant beast at times.
In his last two games, Davenport has started and averaged 4.5 total tackles, 1.5 sacks, 1.5 TFLs, and 2.0 QB hits per game.
Davenport has played 5 games this season, his 17-game season pace based on those 5 games: 54 tackles, 14 sacks, 20 TFLs.
-- Rookie LB Monty Rice (11 tackles, 1 QB hit) had to fill in at ILB due to all the TEN linebacker injuries. He was OK here. Nothing special besides a good tackle count. He’ll be back to the bench this week, likely.
-- Tennessee DT Jeff Simmons vs. the holy Aaron Donald in 2021…
3.4 total tackles, 0.75 sacks, 0.9 TFLs, 0.30 PDs, 1.3 QB hits per game = Simmons
4.5 total tackles, 0.60 sacks, 0.9 TFLs, 0.30 PDs, 1.4 QB hits per game = Donald
-- The Titans-DST is getting a ton of respect now…all because they got two pick-sixes on the god-like Matt Stafford on cable TV two weeks ago. Trevor Siemian nearly threw for 300 yards on them here and the Saints scored 3 TDs.
It’s weird…the Titans shutdown Mahomes and Stafford but somewhat struggled with Siemian and got rocked by Wentz and Josh Allen in the past 5 weeks. However, they are good. Very sound. Hard hitting. But not elite…yet…but are emerging, promising.
…it will be an elite DST this week against Houston.
The impressive defense here, to me, was the Saints. No defense is as hard-hitting as the Saints. Arizona and Green Bay are up there too, but wow the pads were cracking in this game…more cracking with the Saints than Titans, but Tennessee brought it too.
I’d like to work with the Saints-DST, but I don’t love the Philly Week 11 matchup, but I would use it if I had to. I definitely don’t want them for the BUF-DAL Weeks 12-13. Week 15 at TB is no good either. However, Weeks 14 and 16-17 is great…NYJ and then MIA-CAR.
Snap Counts of Interest:
49 = AJ Brown
38 = Marcus J
21 = Rogers
13 = Dez Fitzpatrick
61 = Tre’Quan
52 = Callaway
26 = Deonte
18 = Stills
09 = Kevin White
- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 10: Cowboys 43, Falcons 3
Don't try to read too much into this game. The two teams battled closely for about a quarter, and then the better team took over and the game was quickly out of hand. The Cowboys were about to take a 28-3 lead into halftime when they blocked a punt for a TD that effectively ended the game on the spot. If Atlanta was harboring any hopes of a comeback that play ended them.
The Falcons put their starters out for a bit after halftime, but the Cowboys scored again which prompted Arthur Smith to wisely pull most of his starters. The second half was the 2nd team offenses and defenses scuffling around trying to get the game over faster. That's why you can't take most of these numbers seriously. It was a completely unbalanced game, not unlike what happened to the Cowboys last week against Denver.
We already knew Dallas was one of the better NFC teams. How good they are is still up for debate. Personally, I think they are still battling the Packers and Bucs for the title of 2nd best NFC team. RC thinks the Packers are better than either of those two and in the mix with Arizona for best team. Regardless, this blowout doesn't sway my opinion on Dallas either way. I want to see how they do against better teams first. This team is headed for 13 or 14 wins most likely and a top 3 seed in the NFC. Their January 2nd game against the Cardinals could have huge implications for the final seeding. Win that and they might snag the top seed and home field advantage throughout the playoffs.
The Falcons fall to 4-5 and things are looking grim the rest of the year. They should finish somewhere around 6 wins at best. This just isn't a good team. They've been fortunate to play a few of the weakest teams in the league and that is pushing their record to where it is. This team hasn't been above .500 since 2017, strange as that sounds. In my mind I always want to think of the Falcons as a decent but not great team, but the reality is they have been very poor for years now and are on the cusp of falling in with the dregs of the NFL, teams like the Jets and Jaguars.
Fantasy Notes
--Again, you can't take anything very seriously from this game due to its nature. Tony Pollard (11-42-0, 6-56-0/7) is arguably the best backup RB in the league and a top 5 guy if Elliott ever gets hurt. He's been more involved than ever this year, but the high number of touches here was solely because of the blowout. He wasn't taking nearly as many carries until the starters got pulled.
--Amari Cooper (4-54-0/4) just isn't bouncing back. He's another random WR3 until we see some signs of a reversal.
--Another Cowboy that strangely disappeared from the game plan is Dalton Schultz (1-14-0/2), but unlike Amari I believe that is just a one week blip. He had 5 and 7 targets the two games before this one but only managed to pull in 2 catches on those 7 targets against the Vikings excellent linebackers. This game just got out of hand so fast that Dallas didn't need him to move the chains like usual. I expect him to bounce back in a big way against the Chiefs. In my opinion you should be looking to buy him off this dip.
--Kyle Pitts (4-60-0/7) had a “down” game, but I want to put some context to this and explain why I think he's going to finish strong as a top 3 TE the rest of the year. One Atlanta's first couple of drives he was the man. He was the guy Ryan was going to every play, and he was wide open all day. After the initial burst the game was essentially over already and Ryan was struggling just to complete a pass into prevent coverage. Even later in the game when Ryan threw a terrible interception right into Trevon Diggs's hands, the throw was targeted to Pitts and he was absolutely wide open on the supposed best corner in the league.
Pitts still isn't running any crazy routes or doing anything particularly creative, but he is consistently getting open against the top coverage of opposing defenses. There was some concern that he would struggle as the top option with Calvin Ridley out, but I saw no signs of that here. Things just got out of hand too quickly. If the game had proceeded like normal, Pitts would have easily gone over 100 yards here.
4 catches for 60 yards doesn't sound like much, but when you consider that Ryan only completed 9 passes for 117 yards it suddenly seems much more impressive. And obviously Ryan won't be held down nearly this bad most weeks despite his diminishing skills. Pitts was about 50% of the receiving production here, but even if he drops to only 30% he'll still be putting up excellent numbers if Ryan bounces back to his 252 yard per game season average.
On the year Pitts already has 606 yards on 40 catches for a ridiculous 15.2 ypc average as a TE. He's going over 1000 yards easily. The only thing holding him back so far is his 1 TD, but that number should regress a little. Even just 3-4 TD's over the remaining schedule would do a lot to bump his numbers. If he keeps up his current pace of catches and yards but adds in just 3 TD's, then we're looking at about 13.5 ppg the rest of the year. He's TE6 in scoring and 8th in ppg at the moment, but 13.5 would put him in 3rd behind Kelce and Andrews. It's also entirely possible that he continues to get better as the season goes on, grabs a larger share of the passing game, and finishes even higher.
I know it's been an up and down year for Pitts so far, but I love what I'm seeing from him and I think things are just going to get better. He's ready to jump into the discussion for best TE in the league already.
--I was shocked to see Wayne Gallman (15-55-0, 1-21-0/2) lead the RB touches by such a huge margin because I didn't remember seeing him much in the live watch. Is this a trend to jump on? Not even close. I watched the backfield closely my second time looking at the game, and it's clear what happened.
Davis and Patterson were out there doing their thing as usual, but then the game got out of hand, Patterson got hurt, and they abandoned the run in the 2nd quarter. After the first drive of the second half Arthur Smith threw in the towel and pulled Davis from the game along with most of the starters. Gallman came in to run the clock out. The only way Gallman takes significant carries is if Patterson is out this week, but RC thinks Patterson will play. Even if Patterson is out, it's still going to be a 60/40 split at best for Gallman with Davis as the lead. There are better streaming options available.
--Russell Gage put up a big fat zero on only 3 targets? Am I worried? Nope, for the same reason as I don't like Gallman. The game got crazy and Gage got pulled with the other starters fairly early. He should be fine most weeks, but you can't expect too much against top coverage and with Ryan at QB. He's a desperation WR4 right now.
--Likewise, don't sweat Patterson so long as he's healthy. Nothing has changed about his role.
IDP Notes
--I swear this Trevon Diggs (2 tackles, 1 INT) nonsense is getting out of hand. I'm sorry, but I've seen him get beat too often by some very average receivers this year, and most of his INT's have been thrown literally right to him. It's not like he's making all these crazy pass breakups. Pitts smoked him all game, but Ryan threw the ball two feet behind him and high right into Digg's hands. Diggs is on the short list for Defensive MVP, but I don't believe he even belongs on the list. He's been pretty good but not even the best corner in the league, much less the best defensive player.
--The runaway favorite for Defensive Rookie of the Year, Micah Parsons (6 tackles, 1 sack) absolutely deserves it though. I wasn't too impressed early in the year, but he just gets better and better every week. Great scouting job by RC and great bet opportunity sleuthing by Chris Bilello.
--If you don't already know who he is, I want to introduce you to Foyesade Oluokun (14 tackles in only 78% of the defensive snaps), the NFL's 3rd leading tackler with 100 already in 9 games (11.1/g). In his past four games, Oluokun has had 13+ tackles three times with an average of 13/g. He's only been under 8 tackles one time this year and has gone 9+ in all but two games. The man is a tackling machine, one of the best in the league.
Snap Counts of Interest
35 = Russell Gage
31 = Tajae Sharpe
23 = Olamide Zaccheaus
33 = Kyle Pitts
23 = Hayden Hurst
23 = Wayne Gallman
20 = Mike Davis
51 = Amari Cooper
41 = Michael Gallup
32 = CeeDee Lamb
51 = Dalton Schultz
36 = Sean McKeon
38 = Ezekiel Elliott
32 = Tony Pollard
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 10: Panthers 34, Cardinals 10
Wow. Well, I would say ‘This is what you get when you have to roll with Colt McCoy’, but the Panthers just walloped the formerly-known-as ‘the best team in the NFL’ with P.J. Walker having his best game of his life.
This game makes (along with the emergence of Mike White and all the other emergency-start QBs who come and win/beat down opponents) makes me wonder if the NFL is not turning into a real passing league as much as it’s just in a 1970s mindset and/or a West Coast simplicity of run the ball and play good defense, as their mediocre QBs work a safe screen pass game around that desire.
When you play ‘small ball’ you don’t need Tom Brady or Patrick Mahomes…those guys scare most NFL head coaches because they might throw an interception. The fact that they throw 4-5 TDs passes a game and lead their teams to all the Super Bowls…that doesn’t matter in the wake of that bad interception they once threw that one time (trying to make a play/win games). Most NFL head coaches want to play ball control, screen pass games for safety…and really they want to win via ‘out-toughing’ the other team…with their heads fully up the ass of their own monstrous playbook. NFL head and assistant coaches are usually all former players who were grinders, and they coach from that perspective – they hate flashy and risky, they covet ‘sound’ football to outsmart their opponents, because they weren’t talented/flashy players themselves, they were the outwork, out-tough, outsmart to make up for the lack of athletic skills.
When I wanted to start opening positions in Bitcoin a year+ ago, because I thought it had a chance to be the world currency at some point, a hedge against inflation…my wife said: “I wouldn’t buy that it’s too scary; what even is it?” My wife is a ‘bury your extra shillings in a Mason jar in the backyard’ kinda person because money and risk scares her and she’s not good with numbers. It’s all a blur. That’s not a crime…it’s just a reality. She didn’t want to go school for finance, she wanted to be a teacher from age five...and eventually graduated college to be a lower school teacher. On the other hand, I should’ve been an accountant (but was too lazy as a youngster to do excessive homework needed), and I ended up in corporate financial management because I was very good with numbers and they identified it in me when I was a young pup in the system. When it comes to my money, I’m a ‘Let me learn about new things and see if I can put money to work to grow, knowing you have the risk of loss as well’. Money, numbers don’t scare me – culinary arts and home repair scare me (among many other things)…and my mindset is to ‘go for it’ on investments I’ve researched.
With my wife’s plan…she’ll never lose, so she can’t really be criticized, in her mind. She didn’t lose. And when the market tanks, it’s actually a great strategy. However, with my style/plan if we lose ground, the wife will complain about it…so, there used to be a thought by me to not have the nagging criticism come into play and just take the safe route out to avoid the hassle. There are advantages to playing it safe when real results and mass criticism is on the line. Just don’t lose (the anti-Al Davis story) tends to feel like a non-critiqued way to live. NFL head coaches gravitate towards ‘don’t lose’…it’s human nature, and 2x the nature of football coaches. If it wasn’t, there would be WAY more going for two and going for 4th-downs then there is, and just think it’s the wild wild west of that today vs. 5 years ago.
What do coaches always talk about? Turnovers and penalties. They talk about mistakes they never embrace opportunities, especially if they took a shot and failed…they don’t take pride in it and to be honest…they hide and say to themselves I’ll never do that again.
I’m not saying one investing or coaching style is absolutely right or wrong…they can both be right or wrong depending upon the era. Stock Market crashes…you’re glad you had the Mason jar. Take a lot of risk and lose, you feel like crap. I say all this to climb into the mind of the NFL head coach/assistant coaches coming up – they are by and large people who are short sighted, concerned about the appearance of ‘toughness’, play to not-lose, play to not get criticized, play to hope to be able to have a chance to win in the final few minutes. They don’t play to win…except the first drive of games, where they spill their one cool new play they drew up for the week and they can't wait to show it as fast as possible, then never use it again the rest of the game.
I’m not sure how I went down this bunny trail, but you can apply this logic to the football GMs. Why do you think none of them make any real trades or a lot of trades? They’re afraid. Doing nothing escapes the most criticism by the media, fans, and themselves internally.
This game was a shining example of most of the NFL mindset… Two teams with shitty quarterbacks tried to dink and dunk against good defenses and the one team that committed turnovers lost all the momentum and didn't have any gear to mount a comeback, so they just rolled over and lost.
Colt McCoy isn’t any better or worse than P.J. Walker, and the Arizona defense is just as good as the Carolina defense. But McCoy had the triple crown of head coaches worst nightmare to start a game…
1st-series = sack, fumbled, gave the ball to Carolina deep in the red zone…quick TD right after.
2nd-series = Arizona has 4th & a long 1 from their own 40, they go for it…with their GREAT runner Colt McCoy, who was so bad on this play that he lost yardage on a 4th & 1 surge play…Carolina capitalizes and scores another short field TD.
3rd-series = Arizona drives down, and the GREAT Colt McCoy scrambles and throws a pass 10-yards over the head of the intended receiver downfield, and it goes right to a deep safety who fielded it like a punt, drive killed. Carolina then drives down, Walker throws a pick, but the defender let the grip loose falling to the ground and it becomes an incompletion and Carolina retains for a FG. It was 17-0 Carolina in a blink and all that really happened was Colt McCoy gave the game away to Carolina every series. It wasn’t the Arizona defense sucks.
It was 31-3 going into the 4th-quarter, Carolina. But, honestly, this wasn’t Carolina 31-3 better than Arizona…it was just the game of playing it safe backfired quickly for Arizona, and they couldn’t dig out of the hole they put themselves in. If fully healthy Kyler were here…totally different outcome.
Arizona is now (8-2), and no one should take away anything from this game other than…it unluckily got out of hand early and that was that, and Colt McCoy is to blame. If healthy Kyler is back Week 11, they will beat Seattle and be fine. I just think Kyler will be out again this week (the Rams losing again helps the decision), and then you just hope McCoy can play safe and keep you in it. Arizona will win 12-13 games and win the NFC West just fine. The Rams are not in Arizona’s class, with Kyler playing.
It’s a huge win for Carolina, now (5-5) with three very winnable games ahead: WSH, at MIA, bye, ATL. If they can sweep that group, they then get crushed by the ending schedule of at BUF, TB, at NO, at TB. They might get to 9 wins if they can win their next three to get to 8 wins. If they lose one of the next three, they aren’t likely hitting 9 wins, and thus no playoffs. We project 7-8 wins, but 9 possible.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The biggest news item/storyline from this game was the return of Cam Newton (3-4 for 8 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 3-14-1)…rushed for a TD, threw for a TD…but more importantly, gave the Panthers team a big shot in the arm. His presence boosted the team as much as Colt McCoy handing them the game did. Players like Cam, the person…and they could care less about Sam Darnold.
Acquiring Sam Darnold was probably the single stupidest move of the 2021 NFL season. Simply signing Cam Newton could be one of the best moves of 2021, and I don’t like Cam as a QB…but this was a signal to the franchise that you’re actually trying to win.
It’s an obvious take, but to go from cutting Cam to going all-in on Teddy, to dumping Teddy for Darnold and failing with that to now get back to Cam to be a savior – when does the criticism of Matt Rhule and the Carolina GM begin in earnest? They are doing this to themselves.
Cam is going to run the ball a lot and throw for 150 yards or less in games, as Carolina is going to try and copy the Patriots 2021 offense only with more screen passes to their man back – all running, good defense, hope the other team implodes while you just stay safe.
Cam is going to be a lesser Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson for FF…and that can be a back-end QB1 in 4pts per pass TD leagues.
-- Christian McCaffrey (13-95-0, 109-66-0/10) is a huge winner with Cam’s return…a player he has history with. McCaffrey is getting ready to win FF-leagues for people…unless/until he gets hurt again.
Cam had two TDs, but McCaffrey had the shots at them before that and fell just short, or just stepped out of bounds going in. McCaffrey nearly had 3 TDs this game but ended up with zero.
McCaffrey is back, and if you are going to face him ahead…curse your luck – why couldn’t you face his FF team when he was out?
-- Cam returning is OK for D.J. Moore (4-24-0/7), given a prior relationship…but Cam is a shell of himself as a passer, so beware.
I’d use this week to cash out on DJM…play on the hype of Cam returning and how wonderful that will be for Moore. Cam will throw for 100-150 yards per game, and half+ of that to CMC. Not a ton of DJM upside.
Ditto for Robby Anderson (4-37-1/6), who got a short TD toss off a Cam fake run. Nice, but likely Carolina will run in most short scores and Robby is a downfield worker with a non-downfield QB. Sure, they’ll probably hit one every so often…but no boost or consistency in sight here.
-- Kyler Murray (DNP) may return Week 11, but if he does…I’m sure he will not be at 100% in the legs and therefore he will not run the ball as much, and when he doesn’t run he’s a bit wobbly for FF production, not as hot for FF at 90% vs. peak 100% Kyler (and 100% Kyler is arguably the best QB in FF). Us Kyler owners have to get him through Week 11 to his Week 12 bye to be back 100% for Week 13 on.
-- Christian Kirk (7-58-0/8) is quietly trying to push towards WR2-2.5 in PPR. He’s the #31 WR in PPR scoring per game this season, but he’s the #22 PPG PPR scorer since Week 6…as DeAndre Hopkins started having issues and A.J. Green is fading off.
The risk is, once Hopkins is back…it’s likely back to a WR2.5-3.0 instead of a WR2 hopeful.
-- I will no longer implore you to hold the Cardinals-DST at all costs for the rest of the season. Not because they got rolled here – they really weren’t bad here, just the offense put them behind the 8-ball so often, so quickly. It’s more because of the schedule ahead starting to turn.
Week 11 = at SEA (I’m not totally afraid, BUT if no Kyler then we’re back in the same boat).
Week 12 = BYE
(if you don’t use Arizona Week 11, then you’re not again Week 12…do you want to hold for Weeks 13 and 15?)
Week 13 = at CHI
Week 14 = LAR (I’d rather not)
Week 15 = at DET
Week 16 = IND (top O-Line, never great for FF DST scoring)
Week 17 = at DAL (top O-Line, never great for FF DST scoring)
You know who is the perfect match for Arizona’s Week’s 11, 12, 14 matchups? Carolina with JAX, WSH, and MIA those weeks.
But you could also go with Miami-DST for Weeks 11-12, use ARI Week 13 and then reassess from there.
-- The Carolina-DST’s schedule Weeks 11-14 is great, except a Week 13 bye. And Carolina’s defense is really good, with near-great around the corner with Jaycee Horn back someday.
Week 11 = WSH
Week 12 = at MIA
Week 13 = BYE
Week 14 = ATL
Then you run from Weeks 15-17.
-- This game got out of hand quickly, but Eno Benjamin (6-22-0, 0-0-0/1) only played 15 snaps…so no real excitement from the team on Eno here. This RB coach is way into/friends with Conner (from back in the day), so he’s now going to be the big lead carry RB. Eno is just a handcuff for Conner for now, as Edmonds will be upon his return. Eno or Edmonds have the same value as Marlon Mack or whatever backup RB you want to hold and hope the starter dies off.
-- Not for nothing, but Carolina PK Zane Gonzalez (4/4 FG, 2/2 XP) is the #1 PPG kicker in Fantasy since Week 5. Don’t overlook him if you have an underperforming ‘name’ kicker meandering for you right now.
Snap Counts of Interest:
45 = Conner
15 = Eno
47 = Kirk
42= Wesley
38 = Green
18 = Rondale (the ‘Isabella’ virus has been transmitted to Rondale)
44 = CMC
16 = Hubbard
16 = Abdullah
66 = PJ Walker
09 = Cam
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 10: Packers 17, Seahawks 0
Aaron Rodgers v. Russell Wilson in a big-time NFC showdown in the Year 2021, which means that a defensive struggle broke out.
It didn’t help that Russell Wilson’s hand wasn’t 100% but it was more that Seattle has a surprisingly good/emerging defense, and the Green Bay Packers have the best defense in football right now (according to me). More on these two DSTs in a moment.
This game was 3-0 going into the 4th-quarter. Neither team could really get going on offense all that well. Eventually, Green Bay broke the seal in the 4th-quarter and Seattle was helpless to try to do the same.
Seattle falls to (3-6) with an outside chance at getting to 9 wins because of a few cupcakes on the schedule, but likely they will wind up around 7-8 wins…because their offensive line is really bad.
Green Bay is now (8-2), and the best team in football. A top defense, a nice run game, an HOF QB. They are a David Bakhtiari return (next week) away from being the best all-around team in the NFL (just need a new kicker)…and are a Jaire Alexander and Za’Darius Smith return away from a Super Bowl title (assuming all other key things stay healthy, which is never assured).
Arizona having to go to Green Bay in January…yeah, I’ll take the Pack. GB can get to 13-14 wins with all the talent they could be getting back…or just with the talent they have. If they punt the Vikings at Minnesota this week…then watch out NFC/the world.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The most important FF thing to discuss from this game…how excellent the Green Bay Packers defense has become. This despite their top CB (Jaire Alexander) and a top pass rusher (Za’Darius Smith) being out.
Three games ago they made Kyler Murray look human for the first time this season.
Two games ago, they made Patrick Mahomes get criticized in the sports media all week…analysts blaming Mahomes/KC, not the GB defense.
This past game, they shutout Russell Wilson…and Russ’s hand getting the blame, not the GB defense.
The Packers are the #3 points per game allowed defense in the NFL…#1 if you take it from Week 2 on. Week 1 they had that weird game where the Saints scored 38 points, but it was a lot of luck and turnovers helping that.
This defense has been progressively getting better each week. Once rookie CB Eric Stokes (1 tackle, 1 PD) went into the starting lineup, they’ve taken off.
De’Vondre Campbell (5 tackles, 1 TFL) has been one of the best free agent signings of the year…and it was last second. As he’s gotten used to the defense, the Pack D has taken off. He’s a top DPOY candidate for me this year. So is Stokes, but neither will get an ounce of recognition by the football media.
Credit as well to Rasul Douglas (4 tackles, 1 PD, 1 TFL) who bounces around the league, but always plays well wherever he goes.
Also, Adrian Amos (4 tackles, 3 PDs) seems like he’s everywhere in pass coverage help. And Rashaan Gary (3 tackles, 1.0 sacks) is having a breakout year…just in time for his free agency.
You’d love to jump all over this for DST use, but at MIN Week 11 isn’t a great matchup…but Green Bay has blown through ‘bad matchups’ lately. Week 12 vs. LAR isn’t optimal, but not devastating. Week 13 is a bye. The next 3 weeks aren’t wonderful setups. Then it gets better – CHI, at BAL, CLE, MIN…three of 4 at home from Weeks 14-17.
-- All the top 10 NFL defenses in PPG allowed are winning record teams or .500 teams at worst except one…and you’d be shocked to know it’s the Seattle Seahawks. The #9 defense in PPG allowed, just a hair behind #8 PIT. I know I was shocked when I saw that.
They held Green Bay to just 3 points going into the 4th-quarter. They’ve allowed 12.3 PPG over their last three games. It’s a top 10 run defense (by ypc allowed) but still the #29 pass defense (by yards per game). They’ve given up the 4th lowest number of passing TDs this season…they give up some yards but not scores.
Whether you guy into this defense for FF or not…not that they do have a good schedule after Week 11.
Heinicke, Jimmy G., Tyrod, Stafford, Fields, Goff in Weeks 12-17. They are improving on defense and about to hit a nice schedule stretch to further support things.
-- The big news here is A.J. Dillon (21-66-2, 2-62-0/2) is going to get clean starts for the next two weeks, at least, likely. Aaron Jones has a sprained MCL, and that could be more like 4-5 weeks versus 2-3.
Dillon is the closest thing we have to Derrick Henry in the NFL…a modern-day Earl Campbell. Buckle up for a 1-2-3+ week run with a new high-end RB1.
Every week, another RB or three goes down and gives opportunity to the #2 for 1-3 weeks. Dillon is the best of all #2s. Whatever #1 RB hasn’t been hurt yet…they’re due. Hold onto the #2 RB in a decent offense, where they’d really matter if given the shot -- Tony Pollard, Marlon Mack, even Ronald Jones. Those three #2 RBs named are behind top #1s who haven’t missed a game yet.
NOTE: When Green Bay did score the game’s only TD, it was Dillon for the short plunge. However, oddly, before that…Patrick Taylor took the two carries in the goal-to-go situation before Dillon punched it in. Taylor is talented, but not as much as Dillon. He’ll see some touches, but I am only pointing him out to note he’s the handcuff for if Dillon goes down while Jones is still down…and that he’s pretty solid/good as a power runner.
-- Dillon will be helped by the fading passing game of Aaron Rodgers (23-37 for 292 yards, 0 TDs/1 INT), plus the Pack’s good defense. Green Bay can win through run game and defense, and not have to rely on Rodgers for everything.
Rodgers still has the arm, quick release…but he only seems comfortable with Davante Adams (7-78-0/11) and swing passes to the RBs. He’s still a top/dangerous NFL QB…just a weakening one for FF.
Rodgers will be helped for output when Bakhtiari returns, but that edge is probably negated by Green Bay not needing to throw a million times to win anymore. Rodgers is on the fence of QB1/QB2 for FF ahead…no longer a ‘top guy’ but can have top guy weeks.
-- Russell Wilson (20-40 for 161 yards, 0 TDs/2 INTs, 5-32-0) didn’t look right. He didn’t look obviously hindered, but he did not look like himself throwing the ball PLUS the Packers defense was all over him.
Wilson’s hand might be an issue, but I know his pass protection is. We have Seattle, currently, as the single lowest rated pass protection group in the NFL. That’s not good for Russ production…or for time to throw to Lockett-Metcalf.
Which, speaking of that…
-- There were a ton of passes, short/quick ones to Gerald Everett (8-63-0/8) here. It seemed like a random game plan or something, but then I saw that the last time Everett played with Russ (all the way back in Week 3), he had a (5-54-0/5) game.
13 catches on 13 targets for 117 yards is the tally for their last two, full games together…TE1 work in PPR. It’s worth noting or gambling on ahead. However, Week 11 vs. Arizona is not a great matchup to see…but we’ll see. Wilson needs quick/short dump passes to counterbalance his awful O-Line…it might Everett in the spot to gain from it.
-- This Seattle O-Line is so bad it is killing Alex Collins (10-41-0, 1-8-0/1). Collins sees primary touches but can hardly get going before he’s greeted by the defense on every handoff.
Collins may need to start the rest of the season, which has some FF hope…but his O-Line is going to suppress him to RB2.5-3.0 work, it looks like.
Snap Counts of Interest:
70 = Davante
50 = Cobb
49 = MVS
44 = Lazard
36 = Dillon
34 = Jones
03 = Taylor
31 = Homer (led SEA RBs in snaps, working as a satellite back/hurry up offense time)
30 = Collins
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
Looking at three Fantasy notes from each game this Sunday and our five players' advisory list for upcoming waivers, trading, and deep sleepers...
- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 10: Dolphins 22, Ravens 10
Well, I don't think anyone saw this coming. The Dolphins just handed the Ravens their asses on a plate. I'm not going to get into the specifics because it was a rather boring game and rather straightforward, but suffice it to say that Miami looked like and was the superior team here.
I first noticed the Miami defense looking quite impressive a couple weeks ago against Buffalo. The Bills were struggling to put anything together all game. At first I thought it was just an off night, but it was obvious after watching the game that Miami was playing very good defensively. Same thing against Houston. They simply couldn't get anything going. It just didn't get made into a big deal because it's Houston and their offense sucks anyways.
This makes three weeks in a row now where Miami has just suffocated the opposing offense. It seems obvious now that you can't just start your guys against them, particularly WR's. The Miami secondary is playing lights out, but the run defense, which was a leaky sieve early in the year, suddenly looks much improved too.
What brought about this change? I honestly have no idea. All I can do is point it out. Miami should be considered a top 10, if not a top 5 defense now. That's how good they look. Add a weak but plausible offense led by Tua in, and you have the recipe for a team that's a difficult out. I would not be surprised if Miami wins their next 4 games against a weak schedule to get back to respectability.
The Ravens fall to 6-3 and have problems looming. Their remaining schedule is full of threatening games, including two each against division rivals Cleveland and Pittsburgh. Those two teams have their own issues, but Baltimore isn't drastically better than either. I think they are really going to struggle the second half of the year and likely finish with around 10 wins although 9 or 11 wouldn't shock me either. They are a good but not great team that's been propelled by luck as much as anything so far.
*RC NOTE: I’ll take credit for the Ravens sudden downfall. The moment I endorsed them/stopped hating them a few weeks ago...they always do the opposite to me. Now, that I’m gloating about their demise...guaranteed big win this week on their way to the Super Bowl *until I turn on them again, and then they’ll turn on me turning on them...and round-and-round we go).
Fantasy Notes
--So Tua Tagovailoa (8-13 for 158 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) came off the bench after Jacoby Brissett (11-23 for 156 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) sustained an injury and struggled. Why didn't Tua start if he was healthy enough to play? I don't know and haven't seen a good explanation. What I do know is that he's good enough to hang in games now, especially with the help of a great defense. He can play pitch and catch with WRs on all those short routes and it will work most weeks.
Don't get sucked in by the huge yards per attempt here. He benefited from two broken coverage plays where a receiver got loose for easy completions. He'll be back to his usual “death by a thousand papercuts” style next week. I still think Tua works as a spot start or decent QB2 but only against teams that don't generate a ton of pressure with their defensive line (like Buffalo).
--I hate Myles Gaskin (14-31-0, 1-14-0/2) so much. I know he gets touches, but his averages are just so bad and this offense doesn't score a lot of points. There's no reason you should have him anyways.
--Albert Wilson (4-87-0/5) and Isaiah Ford (4-84-0/4) both had good games, but both happened because of broken coverage by the Ravens. Neither looks particularly involved in the offense or capable of a breakout.
*RC NOTE: I am not totally dismissing Albert Wilson...I thought he looked good here, and he is a good player. If he’s playin g/starting, in the baby throw Tua offense...it can work for like WR3 stuff.
--Somehow Mike Gesicki managed to not catch a single pass on 7 targets. That's mostly on Brissett though. Nothing wrong with Gesicki. Fire him up as usual next week.
--Jaylen Waddle (4-61-0/6) had a relatively quiet game which might give room to buy him in dynasty. As usual, don't overpay.
--Should you worry about Lamar Jackson (26-43 for 238 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 9-39-0)? Not yet. He is what he is. Most games you're going to get less than 250 yards passing, 1 TD, and then 50+ yards on the ground. He's a high floor option, and nothing is going to change that. I do think that his upside might be capped against much tougher opponents the rest of the year. He's had three monster games against the Chiefs, Colts, and Vikings, but other than that he's just been ok. “Ok” is what I expect from him most weeks now.
--Like I said last week, this is Devonta Freeman's (10-35-0, 3-23-0/4) backfield now. Shouldn't be. Should be Tyson Williams, but the Ravens are geniuses and know better than all of us peons. Freeman is just another RB2-2.5 for now.
*RC NOTE: I think Latavius walks back in and is the run game lead, and Freeman the 3rd-down guy with some carries otherwise.
--Rashod Bateman (6-80-0/8) is already locked in as the #2 receiver, and I think he has a more stable role than what we've seen from any other Baltimore sidekick receiver before. You can trust him as a WR3 from here on out.
--Marquise Brown (6-37-0/13) had a rare down week. He's been arguably the most consistent receiver in football over the last 20 games or so. There's nothing to panic about with him. He got 13 targets here. It just happened to come against two of the best CB's in the game. Fire him up every week if you have him, and if you can still trade I recommend trying to nab him of this down game.
IDP Notes
--The only thing I can figure caused the change in Miami's defense is more snaps for Andrew Van Ginkel (5 tackles, 0.5 sack, 1 pd) and the return of Jerome Baker (4 tackles). Neither guy is lighting up the stat sheet, but the improved play at linebacker was clear the last few weeks. Shocking I know, better linebackers equals better run defense.
*RC NOTE: The Miami-DST…
If they are catching fire, and seems like they are...then checkout this schedule ahead for them:
Week 11 = at NYJ (nice alt for ARI-DST v SEA)
Week 12 = CAR (nice fill-in for ARI-DST on bye)
Week 13 = NYG
Week 14 = BYE
Week 15 = NYJ
Week 16 = NO
Week 17 = at TEN
As long as Miami is still alive for the wild card, this is a nice DST schedule. You get them against White/ZWilson-Cam-Dimes-bye-ZWIlson-Tannehill-minus-Henry.
Snap Counts of Interest
61 = Jaylen Waddle
38 = Albert Wilson
18 = Preston Williams
56 = Mike Gesicki
41 = Durham Smythe
38 = Adam Shaheen
42 = Myles Gaskin
16 = Patrick Laird
55 = Marquise Brown
44 = Devin Duvernay
40 = Rashod Bateman
42 = Devonta Freeman
31 = Le'Veon Bell
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 9: Giants 23, Raiders 16
Most people saw this Giants-Raiders end with a lower/average scoring win in a game involving mostly not used FF players…and no one really cared much about it. Darren Waller and/or Graham Gano, and that’s about the meat of it for most for FF interest (by and large for FFMers). No one really watched this with great anticipation, probably not even respective fans of the team.
I’m not immune to that vibe either. I should’ve paid more attention to this one – this game was a nice watch, two good teams fought hard, and I have more FF-notes than I expected.
I am a sudden NYG fan because I think I am seeing the hidden gem team of the future. The penny stock to buy and watch it inflate to $1.00+ down the road. A Giants team most non-Giants fans ignore. A Giants team that most Giants fans hate. But I think the Giants have all the pieces for a playoff run, if they can get those pieces healthy…and they have all the pieces of an NFC East winner in 2022 if they upgrade their O-Line…and a possible Super Bowl run in years to come, if they then find a better QB.
It was a treat to watch because this was a good football game involving two really ‘good’ (not great), tough teams – they went to war and MY Giants won…so, that was also fun.
And the Giants won in a way you can be football-impressed with – led by the defense. Vegas drove the ball down on the Giants like every other drive it seemed, and it wasn’t easy to drive against NYG, but Vegas is good…and as they got close/into the red zone the Giants bowed up and slammed the door shut on scoring TDs, instead holding the Raiders to field goals or nothing, which allowed NYG to put up enough offense to pull out the win.
It was an ending befitting the whole game flow – the Raiders down 7 with 3+ minutes to go starting a drive at their own 25-yard line. Down the field they grinded…into the red zone, 1st & 10 at the Giants 13-yard line with 0:50 left. On 1st-down, the Giants suffocated all the receiving options and flushed Carr to force a throw away. 2nd & 10 from the 13/the next play, a strip sack by Quincy Roche and the Giants recovered – ball game.
It was ‘so (my) Giants’ for the ending – the strip sack by Roche…a rookie pass rusher that the Steelers cut in the preseason, a guy who anyone who was looking (which means no one in the NFL except Gettleman) could’ve seen he was dominating left tackles and showed a real spark…as I pointed out repeatedly this August. The Steelers went on to sign awful Melvin Ingram to fill their pass rush needs, and then they gave up on Ingram a few weeks later. The Giants claimed Roche and he has earned more and more playing time and is now contributing big time on their D-Line. I wonder what the Steelers GM thinks every time Roche makes a play every week for NYG. I hope he gets indigestion…and ridicule from his co-workers.
Ahh, who am I kidding…I know the Steelers GM isn’t watching football games other than his team on Sundays, from the luxury box, between trips to the buffet spread and playing Candy Crush on his cellphone. He probably isn’t aware Roche is even on the Giants…or still in the NFL.
This was a big win for NYG…still reeling from all their injuries, and they went and took down a division leader. NYG really should have beaten KC Week 8, and then knocked down LV here…and been on a three-game win streak. They’re that good (not great). Now, a bye week and then the (3-6) Giants go to Tampa Bay…a game where they might have Saquon and their starting left tackle (A. Thomas) back with a healthy Golladay-Toney. If the G-Men somehow roughhouse Tompa Bay at Tampa Bay on a Monday Night game, Katie bar the door, this NYG team is a playoff contender.
It’s a tall order to go to TB and beat them on MNF Week 11, but we’ll see what the injury reports say. NYG is the kinda team that could give Tompa fits because the G-men are the toughest team that I watch each week, outside of Arizona…and they might harass pretty boy Tom like it’s 2012.
The Giants need to keep Joe Judge and Dave Gettleman (who is doing some of the best personnel work in all the NFL), and ditch Jason Garrett and not re-sign Saquon Barkley to a deal and find a veteran quarterback to replace Dan Dimes, and presto-chango, Giants win the NFC East in 2022.
All my Giants talk is overshadowing a very good Las Vegas team…a very legit team to win the AFC West. The best thing that ever happened to this Raiders team was Gruden getting dumped and installing Rich Bisaccia as head coach. The Raiders are a junior version of the Giants – they’re good overall, scrappy-tough, play with a chip, have a bad O-Line, have a gritty defense that doesn’t get enough credit, but where LV is lesser than NYG in most every position group -- they have the way better QB.
The Raiders are now (5-3) and can take a huge step forward, and I think they will, Week 10 by slaughtering Kansas City. It’s a tough schedule ahead, and we project LV to come up short of the division with a (9-8) record, but 10 wins is not out of the question, nor is 8 wins and out of the playoff picture. Week 10 is everything for Las Vegas. Lose and they will likely tailspin. Win and they may get launched forward as the AFC West favorites and a new swagger.
Seriously, I’m a Giants fan now…the G-Men…the Me-Men (no that won’t work, that sounds too…well you know…email Jon Gruden and see what he says). Send me all the cool Giants gear. My son is a long-time Giants fan, but he couldn’t name 3 players on the team…but we can bond over it now that he’s an old married man (almost married 4 whole days now). *Note: I’m a fan of no team in reality. I won’t be jaded by such personal bias. More so I’ll complain often about how the NYG organization didn’t capitalize on the opportunity I am seeing.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Let’s start by discussing Kadarius Toney (1-9-0/1, one rush for -2 yds, one pass attempt, sacked).
He ‘started’…that’s the good news.
The bad news is everything else.
Remember Week 5 versus Dallas when he was literally the best, most dangerous WR in football? No? Well, Jason Garrett and Daniel Jones don’t either.
If Toney is fully practicing, and you’re (NYG) starting him…how in the world are you not getting him the ball a ton? Only in Jason Garrett’s world. I was DELIGHTED and impressed when I saw Garrett push everything to Toney Week 5…and now I take it all back because in this critical game, Toney was a ghost. Sure, Garrett has his one clever ‘trick pass’ play with Toney per game (by NY State law, you must AND can only use that one time a game) but other than that, apparently…Toney is ‘bad at football’ now, not worthy of touches. Kyle Rudolph (4-20-0/5) led the team in targets, which is what makes Garrett and Dimes idiots. They won, so what do I know?
Toney started the first play and then wasn’t seen again for several more plays and ended up playing 50% of the snaps and getting one whole target. You can’t FF-trust Toney until we see a change in usage.
I can tell you this, Toney looks fantastic. He’s moving fine/great. His route, his cut on his one and only target/catch – beautiful…unstoppable…can get open on anyone at any time. In Dynasty, go grab him and park him on your bench for the future…should be cheaper to do so since we’re five weeks from whence he was great that one time. Typing this made me think – Elijah Moore had that 2 TD game last week…I’d send my Elijah for their Kadarius, straight up, in an instant in Dynasty. And that’s probably the right value today, and maybe overtrading for Toney…which with Toney, I am fine with over-trading for a bit in Dynasty.
-- You know what NYG WR looks really good…Kenny Golladay (3-28-0/3). He is moving great. He is acting like a #1 WR. So, why a ‘meh’ FF-game?
Golladay, like Toney, only played 50%+ of the snaps in this game. And, oh yeah…Daniel Jones sucks out loud.
Jones is only good, and thus Golladay is in a better spot too, when Saquon is there to take heat off Jones so he can stay in the pocket longer to make comfortable throws. Jones is such a puss…so SAWFT that he bails on any pressure…and the Raiders have a good, pressuring defense (and NYG’s line is not great). But when Barkley is back, defenses shutter. When Andrew Thomas is back, even better. When NYG is at full strength, Jones is able to sit clean in pockets and slice and dice like it’s a 7-on-7 game, like he did earlier this season.
But Golladay, especially those of you in Dynasty that can afford to sit on him into 2022, he’s a WR1 talent and movement skills (and experience being a WR1) in hiding. For redraft, we have to wait for Barkley to return…and for KG to play 80%+ of the snaps and for Jason Garrett to get his head out of his arse.
-- ‘My running backs are killing me…’ you proclaim, as you have Devontae Booker (21-99-0, 3-23-0/3) as the #15 PPG PPR back in Fantasy since Week 5. Scoring per game ahead of Josh Jacobs, James Robinson, Dalvin Cook, Aaron Jones, Christian McCaffrey among others.
But he’s going away soon! Yeah…and? What RBs aren’t going away for games at a time? People just lost Alvin Kamara and Damien Harris this week. Dalvin Cook might wind up suspended. Derrick Henry gone. Edmonds on IR. McCaffrey just got back from missing a ton of games. Be happy with the run you’ve had with Booker.
Oh, and it’s not assured Saquon will be back Week 11…or 12…or ever in 2021…and if he is back, what’s it gonna be? Two games before he’s hurt again? Two quarters?
I’d hold Booker even when Barkley returns. He’s a quad away…
-- You know what RB looks really good? Kenyan Drake (4-30-0, 6-70-0/8). He looks the best I’ve ever seen him…AND he looks way better than Josh Jacobs (13-76-0, 4-19-0/4). AND that fact cost Las Vegas the game, potentially.
In a key spot, later in the game, Las Vegas driving on a 3rd-down and short in the red zone…and it was Josh Jacobs, not 3rd-down back Drake (who was killing it all game), who was in the game. Jacobs got the pass in that key spot, but couldn’t pull away from the defender, so it was a quick catch-and-tackle short of a 1st-down. I think Drake would have been further out in front of the defender, made the same catch, and walked into the end zone untouched. Jacobs was blanketed and tackled right away leading to a field goal. It’s the little things that drive me nuts in the NFL…things you would think they know but they never do.
Drake’s splits on the season, pre-and post-new coaching staff…
6.5 PPR PPG on 4.8 carries, 2.6 rec. (3.6 targets), 39.0 total yards, 0.0 TDs per game with Gruden
18.2 PPR PPG on 7.3 carries, 3.8 rec. (4.3 targets), 84.0 total yards, 1.0 TDs per game with Bisaccia
Since Week 6, Drake is the #9 PPR RB in Fantasy.
-- Henry Ruggs gone? It’s not Bryan Edwards (0-0-0/4) time, as I instantly said when the Ruggs news hit – that it’s not more Edwards it’s MORE Hunter Renfrow (7-49-1/9) time. Renfrow is Carr’s BFF target. A mini-Cooper (get it) Kupp for Carr.
With the new head coach, Renfrow has booked three games averaging 5.7 rec. (7.3 targets), 47.7 yards, 0.33 TDs per game. First game without Ruggs, Renfrow matched his career high for targets in a game (9).
…and note, the Carr throws to Edwards were so bad in this game (as usual), such a non-connection between them…I’m done with Edwards. He’s only if you have DEEP rosters to hang onto to see if a miracle happens in 2022.
-- I LOVE the way MY New York Giants are playing on defense right now. Are they a viable FF DST to use ahead? Not really.
Week 11 at TB is not sublime.
Weeks 12-13 v. PHI and MIA are looking decent.
Weeks 14-15 with LAC-DAL is a no-go.
Weeks 16-17 at PHI, at CHI ends it nicely…IF the G-Men are still in it.
-- What about the scrappy, plucky Raiders-DST? Their schedule is mostly brutal ahead. Week 13 hosting Washington is a spot start if needed.
-- Quick bonus on the Robert Woods ACL…
It’s a nice bump for Van Jefferson to assume the Woods role even more. Sure, OBJ will see time and suck some oxygen out of the room…but like with DJax, the crappy WRs of ancient lore will see a quick spike of activity and then everyone realizes they are wastes of space and they move on to playing bit roles.
I like Kupp getting the main attention in coverage, and then OBJ…because the most clueless, behind-the-times people in football are defensive coordinators (who still think guys like Sammy Watkins is something to fear/plan for) – so they’ll throw attention at dropsy OBJ too, which should allow Van Jefferson to eat up catches with the weakest coverage of the group.
When I see the name Van Jefferson right now, I think = Robert Woods output hopes. We’ll see on MNF, but that will probably be a force-to-OBJ fest at first, but as the season resumes to normal Jefferson bumps up.
Snap Counts of Interest:
31 = Golladay
31 = Slayton
31 = Toney
21 = Collin Johnson
05 = Ross
46 = Engram
31 = Rudolph
66 = Zay Jones
64 = Bryan Edwards
45 = Renfrow
34 = Jacobs
31 = Drake
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 9: Broncos 30, Cowboys 16
I could go either way with analyzing this game. It’s in the eye of the beholder, as most football things are.
I could say that Denver played the best game I’ve seen them play in 2021, and they just went out and stomped Dallas.
I could also say that Dallas had every minor thing that could go wrong ended up going wrong and that boosted Denver early and then Dallas started pressing and Denver was ‘feeling it’ and it just got away from Dallas. Just ‘one of those games’.
Dallas aided the Denver assault with Dak just missing open deep balls on receivers a few times…Dallas got hit with penalties at the wrong time, etc. -- all allowing Denver to take a 16-0 halftime lead. The epitome of this game occurred to start the 2nd-half. Dallas stopped Denver’s 2nd-half opening drive deep in Broncos territory. Denver was punting to set Dallas up with (likely) great field position. Dallas then actually blocked the punt…and then IT happened.
Dallas blocked it but they touched the ball downfield and then Denver ended up recovering it in the end, and it was ruled a change of possession on the Dallas downfield touch, and so the ball went back to Denver for a 1st-down from where they recovered it. I don’t think I’d ever seen a blocked punt turn into a turnover back to the kicking team. That play took the wind out of the Dallas sails, as more bad luck ensued from there and Denver was on fire and Dallas was defeated and then next thing you know it’s 30-0 Denver with 6+ minutes remaining. https://youtu.be/THU4BXYNSMQ
Denver was not 30-0 better than Dallas here…they aren’t 30-0 better than Dallas in general. It was just one of those games. Dallas laid an egg, had bad things go against them, and Denver gained swagger and just put Dallas away.
Denver should be credited with an inspired performance and a very good defensive effort. Their secondary is really getting strong. Denver is not a great team, and they’ll probably lay an egg this week in response, but they are good enough to hang with any team…just not good enough to win the Super Bowl or anything.
The Broncos are now (5-4) and back on track for my preseason playoff prediction for them. I still think they are not-great, but it was always about them being OK with a great schedule. I still believe in my statement after Weeks 4-5…Denver is not even good enough to chop through to the playoffs even with the schedule boost. I think they’ll hit 7-8 wins and just fall short…but 9+ wins and a wild card is not totally out of the question.
Dallas is a different team without their LT Tyron Smith. They’re 7-11 when Smith is out since 2019 and 13-9 with him starting. Dallas is set to be without him again in Week 10. Dallas is now (6-2) and is still on track for a 10-12 win season, with a chance at a #1 seed if they can beat up all the NFC East foes they have coming up and take down Arizona Week 17. However many wins they wind up with, Dallas should win the NFC East easily (unless Dak goes down or Tyron is down and out).
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Dak Prescott (19-39 for 232 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT) did not look hindered in any way this game from his calf injury. He definitely didn’t have his best game and he missed two deep ball throws by a yard that would’ve changed the game, so who knows. But I didn’t see any cause for Dak concern here. Just good Denver D, a couple bad throws, and a couple bad drops by receivers.
-- Courtland Sutton (1-9-0/2) does concern me…concerns me that he’s a nice #1 NFL WR for his team, but they don’t FF-lean on or force it to him like other great QB-WR combos. This wasn’t Trevon Diggs wiping him out, although Diggs was on him maybe 50%+ of the game and thus Teddy avoided – but I think Teddy is just into working what makes sense and not leaning on/pressing for Sutton…smart for NFL purposes, bad for FF purposes. Sutton had a nice slant route in the end zone for an easy TD, but Diggs assaulted him for a P.I. and lost the TD event.
Sutton is a solid WR2 with random event FF-games…like a Terry McLaurin.
…or like Amari Cooper (2-37-0/5). Amari-Courtland-McLaurin…three talented #1 WRs who are producing WR2-3 numbers with some spike WR1 weeks with way too many WR3-4 weeks mixed in to make a WR2 average output, but it’s usually feast or famine.
Credit to Denver CB Ronald Darby, who was eating up Amari when he was on him. It might be that Amari isn’t 100% healthy…and/or Amari isn’t 100% into football right now. He looks very uninspired/low key in games right now.
-- Like I say every week, Javonte Williams (17-111-0) looks amazing but he’s just the co-lead, the 1b to the Melvin Gordon 1a for Vic Fangio.
I wonder with the weak O-C Pat Shurmur out this week if the new O-C isn’t as much of a dope and leans on Javonte more. Doubtful, but hopeful…I guess…
-- Albert Okwuegbunam (4-25-0/5) should be/could be starting for 10+ other teams in the league right now, but he’s stuck behind Noah Fant (DNP-COVID) here. He’s a bit stunted in his growth, stuck as a backup/secondary TE here. We won’t see what Albert O. is fully capable of for another three years when he’s a free agent in 2024.
Dalton Schultz (4-54-0/5) isn’t anywhere near the talent of Okwuegbunam, but he’s in a better spot for FF. I’m a buyer on the cheap on any Schultz weakness. He’s a top 5-8 PPR TE for 2021. Not the greatest asset in the world, but stable…as stable as about anything else at TE these days.
-- The Broncos-DST is good-not-great, but they are improving as players get healthy and young players are starting to mature. They just played their best game of 2021…after ditching Von Miller. So, before you think the Rams just won the Super Bowl signing Von…
Two young Denver IDPs emerging a bit from the recent game tape:
1) New starting ILB, rookie Baron Browning (6 tackles) looks promising. He’s a big, long, athletic linebacker who has been shaky on actual football IQ/output, but he’s showing promise thrust into the starting lineup due to all the Denver LB injuries this season.
2) Rookie SAF Caden Sterns (3 tackles, 1 PD, 1 INT) is a future Pro Bowler who would be already starting for most teams in the league. He’s so good, so smooth. He had an excellent interception in this game to really put out the Dallas fire in the 2nd-half, and then had a pick-six opportunity late in the game but it was barely tipped by the WR just as he was about to snatch it coming full speed into it.
-- This game was a big hit to any Dallas-DST momentum anyone thought they had from last week shutting down Minnesota. They were completely obliterated on the ground by a bad Denver O-Line with three backups having to play on that O-Line. Now, the Cowboys have lost Randy Gregory for a while on top of missing their best pass rusher Demarcus Lawrence for most of this season.
Dallas is down their two best DEs (not counting Parsons switching there) and down their best O-Linemen (Tyron) for Week 10. If Dallas stumbles and loses to Atlanta this week…there could be trouble ahead for them cruising to the playoffs, and definitely they are not getting a #1 seed.
Speaking of Micah Parsons (10 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 3 TFLs)…he’s starting to put away the DROY award bet this year. Thank you to Master Chris from Bet The Close Podcast for that identification of the weird/favorable odds on him to win it.
Snap Counts of Interest:
51 = Ced Wilson
44 = Lamb
36 = Amari
25 = Noah Brown
33 = Elliott
24 = Pollard
65 = Sutton
48 = Patrick
47 = Jeudy
22 = Hinton
41 = Gordon
37 = Javonte
