R.C. Fischer

FFM

22 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 6: Cowboys 35, Patriots 29

I still don’t know how Dallas won this game. The Cowboys were down 21-20 with 6+ minutes remaining after a Pats TD for them to take the lead. The Pats halted Dallas and got the ball back with 2+ minutes left to try and ice it. But there would be no icing at all…it was about to get crazy.

Simple over the middle pass by Mac Jones went off Kendrick Bourne’s hands and right to the INT magnet Trevon Diggs for a pick-six. 26-21 Dallas.

First play after the pick-six: a simple medium ball floater from Mac Jones turns into a coverage gaffe and a 75-yard catch-and-run TD. They get the 2-pointer. 29-26 Pats

Dallas drives down in a desperate hurry up and hits on a 3rd & 25 pass over the middle to get into FG range…they hit the 49-yarder for a 29-29 tie and on to OT.

Dallas halts the first Patriots drive in OT, then goes on offense and scores a deep ball TD to CeeDee…ballgame.

The Patriots play not-to-lose…a lot of running and quick/safe passes, and hope the defense comes through. Dallas looked good but had some odd-ball moments…not their finest hour. There were several fluke plays in this game, so I’m not sure who played better or if either played well…but the better team won.

The Patriots fall to (2-4)…could be (5-1)…could be (1-5). They are a .500 or less team type of feel. The schedule is about to turn on them as well. We project NE to finish (6-11).

Dallas is trying to show they are a top NFC team, but I think they are just shy of the Cardinals still at this point. It’s coming down to ARI v. DAL, for the NFC, for me. Green Bay not in that discussion fully. Minnesota could try and sneak into the club but probably won’t. We see Dallas winning 12-13 games this year if they stay healthy.

Week 16…Arizona at Dallas. FYI

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- The Patriots are a 1980s team, which is why no one wants to really play there, and they have to overpay mediocre free agents to come be a part of it…and it’s why they probably won’t be a playoff team this year…and if they are, somehow, they’ll never make it past round-one.

However, going with their 80s theme, they have found some more power run game help with rookie Rhamondre Stevenson (5-23-1, 3-39-0/3), who had his ‘breakout’ game here.

Stevenson had 11 carries in Week 5 (for just 23 yards) but pounded in a short TD here – logical for a guy known to be a short game specialist, a good end-of-game pounding back. But the surprise was…he was involved in the passing game ‘heavy’…3 targets, 3 catches and one of them a downfield throw. He has good enough hands. He’s a bully after the catch. Brandon Bolden (1-0-0, 1-3-0/1) was stripped of that James White role from his prior few weeks of pass catching numbers…and Stevenson took on some of that role, in a sense.

It’s a Damien Harris (18-101-1, 1-7-0/1) led backfield splitting 65/35 with Stevenson ahead. Harris looks good running the ball, but the Pats O-Line is so bad…because they’ve been missing 3-4 starters. If they get the O-Line back together, this might be a bully RB-duo that gets the Pats into the .500+ discussion and long shot wild card hopes…and Harris as an RB1 threat in non-PPR…and Stevenson a Flex flyer.

…and if Harris goes down, it’s going to be the Stevenson show at that point.

 -- The Pats are a running team because Mac Jones (15-21 for 229 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT) is playing ‘game manager’. He would have had less than 150 yards passing and a TD had the fluke 75-yard TD not happened late.

I don’t see Mac getting a whole lot better as we go…he’s just safely game managing.

The perfect QB for a 1980s style offense.

 -- Hunter Henry (2-25-1/2) has a TD in three-straight games, but not much excitement outside of that…but the TDs are a good thing.

Jonnu Smith (1-9-0/2) has 1 TD this season…averaging 1.8 catches per game the last 4 games. He’s become a kinda nobody in this offense.

 -- Amari Cooper (5-55-0/8) continues to put up WR2-3 numbers each week since Week 2. Targets per game since Week 2 = 5.2 targets.

Not being treated like a #1 WR. Tough matchups and just Dak spreading it around. If it’s schedule based…Amari should shoot up the next 3 games: MIN-DEN-ATL. If he doesn’t, then we have an Amari problem. I’m not sure which it is. The data say ‘target worries’.

Michael Gallup returning soon doesn’t really matter – Cedrick Wilson (4-42-0/7) has been a fine replacement for Gallup.

 -- Gallup returning is scaring the mainstream on Dalton Schultz (5-79-0/6), between that and his bye week…it’s a good time to buy low on Schultz if needed/possible. He’s working like a top 3 PPR TE…and that sounds good…but after Kelce, every TE has been randomly hot and cold about 10+ TEs deep every week. Schultz is trending like a top 3 PPR TE…but that may not be super far ahead of the #8-10 TEs, over time.

I just think Schultz’s work, the way he’s used…it looks like he’ll be up with the top 5 PPR TEs all year, but people give him away because they think he’s dull or fear Gallup or fear whatever.

 -- The Patriots have two hot IDPs trending the past few weeks…

Since Week 4, SAF Kyle Dugger (8 tackles, 1 PD) is the #4 PPG DB in IDP…and he’s a real talent/a guy who could finish at #1 among DBs this season.

LB Ja’Whaun Bentley (13 tackles, 1 TFL) is playing about 45-65% of snaps but racking up the tackles…7.2 tackles per game so far this season.

 -- The Patriots-DST hasn’t been great this year, except that one 4 INT game vs. NYJ Week 2. They get NYJ again Week 7, but then Justin Herbert Week 8…then Darnold Week 9 is good…but then Weeks 10-14 are not good/time to say good-bye – CLE-ATL-TEN-BUF-BYE.

 -- The Dallas-DST has been scoring well for FF, but they’ve been a mixed bag on the field…19th in PPG allowed. 29th in yards per game allowed.

BYE Week 7…at MIN Week 8. No reason to be holding them through the BYE.

Their Weeks 13-16 is where they get interesting: NO-WSH-NYG-WSH

Snap Counts of Interest:

39 = Jonnu

37 = H Henry

26 = Dam Harris

18 = Stevenson

11 = Bolden

63 = Elliott

26 = Pollard

R.C. Fischer

FFM

21 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 6: Ravens 34, Chargers 6

I really locked in on re-watching this game this week. For two reasons…

1) My initial thought was: I need to see ‘what happened’ to my Chargers…the supposed ‘best team in the NFL’ candidate just got drop-kicked by a team I despise. It was probably just ‘one of those games’, and I’ll watch to confirm.

2) As the week went on, my Spidey Senses kicked in: Wait…is Baltimore getting ready to go all-Baltimore-2019? Remember when they beat the brakes off every team, and were the best team in football…only to get thumped in a shocker by Tennessee in the 1st-round of the playoffs?

So, which was it in this game…LAC laid an egg, or the Ravens stuck that egg right up their arse? There was some evidence of both – I’m squarely on the fence of ‘I don’t know that this wasn’t a one-week thing’…remember Baltimore vs. Indy the prior week? Terrible for 3.5 quarters..

I probably hate the Ravens more than any team in football, as a scout/analyst. Why? Because I’m always wrong about them. I usually dislike their roster and offense and decisions…and then I pick against them in Fantasy and handicapping things – and then they burn me. Then when I write a confession/change of thought, every year, and I get behind them – then the collapse happens.

Great example, of many Ravens examples for me…

2019…I think Lamar is too flimsy of a passer to matter for FF beyond his running tallies, and he ends up league MVP and top FF QB.

2020…I saw the 2019 writing on the wall, so let’s get in on that. Let’s pay for Lamar in 4pts pass TD leagues. He’s a top FF QB projection…and then he becomes a dud in 2020.

2021…Well, the league has figured out Lamar, so let’s avoid him…and Andrews, and Brown, and everything there. Well, here we are – Lamar starting to roll and surrounding things rising up.

Lamar, Baltimore, they drive me crazy…it doesn’t look like how I want football things to look. I like Justin Herbert and Patrick Mahomes styled QBs more than Lamar ones. I see Lamar work 60 plays in a game, and I find the 2-3-4 he looked like a fool throwing it and I go “see!” while ignoring the 55+ good plays.

Lamar is the new, better Cam Newton…they just make plays with their feet, and defenses live in fear of it and then that opens up wide open passing lanes. Try and stop the run, he’ll side arm it down the field through the air. Play back and make him pass, and he’ll take off running on 3rd & 8 for 10 yards. Every 4th & short, Lamar takes it, everyone knows it, it doesn’t matter…1st-down.

There was a point in this game where analysts got onto the Chargers for ‘going for it’ on like 4th & 5 midway through the 3rd-quarter AT THEIR OWN 22-yard line. It was bizarre, because you rarely see that – down 24-6 with 20+ minutes left, and you’re going for it deep in your own end? You know why Brandon Staley did that, and he was right to – he knew they were getting their arses kicked. It was the do-or-die moment for a dying man. Staley knew it…the team knew it. The Ravens were not having anything the Chargers were dealing.

…and then the Chargers didn’t convert, and it was ‘ball game’. Honestly, this was over halfway into the 1st-quarter when the Ravens raced out to a 14-0 lead.

The Ravens played well on both sides. They are now (5-1), could be (6-0)…lucky to not be (2-4). It’s not the dominant team of 2019…yet…but there are signs. Put me down for the Ravens to win the AFC North now (CLE too banged up right now), and to possibly be the #1 seed in the AFC (wins over LAC and KC already). But because I’m endorsing them now, they will probably go on a losing streak and become a wild card.

I don’t want to get too giddy on Baltimore…a week ago, they looked terrible for 3.5 quarters against Indianapolis.

The Chargers fall to (4-2)…the team that looked so good Week 5 looked dreadful Week 6. The Chargers have one dominant win this year (v. LV) and 50-50 games in their other wins. They have played good teams toe-to-toe (DAL, KC, CLE), so it’s a good team…but maybe not as good (yet) as we thought. Or it’s just the Ravens are that good now…or just this game. The schedule says LAC will win 11+ games and battle KC for that AFC West title.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Lamar Jackson (19-27 for 167 yards, 1 TD/2 INT, 8-51-0) had that 4 TD event Week 5 vs. Indy. In all his other 2021 games, he has 1 passing TD in each game. He hasn’t rushed for a TD since Week 2. In his last 8 regular season games, he’s had zero rushing TDs in seven of the 8.

In his last 8 games, this time including playoffs, Lamar’s passing TDs in each game (starting with the 2020 playoffs): 0-0-1-1-1-1-4-1 = 9 TDs/7 INTs in that stretch.

If you ignore Week 5 of this season, the Indy game, Lamar isn’t a QB1 for FF otherwise.

And yet, he looks so electric. It’s a weird thing.

 -- It’s the run game leading the way for Baltimore here…all three ancient RBs ran for a score. I think Harbaugh is in love with his RB-trio of veterans and he’s going with a strict rotation and semi-hot hand. Devonta Freeman (9-53-1, 0-0-0/2) looks the best of the three, but all of them were fine here because LAC has no run defense with their key linebackers out.

I don’t want to own any, but either of them could score a TD in a given week.

Ty’Son Williams is ‘over’ until further notice. As long as the Ravens are rolling with the ancients, they’ll stick with it as long as the wins are happening.

 -- Rashod Bateman (4-29-0/6) looks and moves really well. Part of the new breed of instantly ready WRs coming out of college. Bateman looks like a Justin Jefferson/Diontae Johnson type weapon…great, short routes…hard to cover.

The problems with holding him in redraft 2021 are…

1) Lamar is completing a lower amount of passes in games (except the wild Indy game)…not a lot of catches to go around with Brown-Andrew ruling the targets as it is.

2) Lamar is usually throwing for 1 TD per game…and it’s likely to Brown-Andrews. If you don’t get any TDs and lower volume on catches-yards – what do you really have here? Looks like Justin Jefferson but has the output of lesser-Jakobi Meyers?

I’m a Bateman fan (of his skills) but hate this situation for FF. If Bateman starts to rise a bit…it’s coming out of the account of Marquise Brown.

 -- Justin Herbert (22-39 for 195 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 2-12-0) looked the worst I’ve ever seen him in the pros, in this game. Misfired several passes. Threw key 3rd and 4th-down passes to WRs at top CB Marlon Humphrey…a VERY bad idea/to no avail – and he threw them offline most times anyway.

Either he just had ‘one of those games’, or the Ravens defense is starting to fire on some cylinders. They weren’t hitting in those cylinders Week 5 v. Indy, so it’s hard to write a final answer in stone here on the Ravens-D. But they look good. And I’ll tell you, CB Anthony Averitt (6 tackles, 1 PD) looks fantastic…better than Marcus Peters. So, Humphrey-Averitt-Smith is a scary trio when they’re on the field together.

 -- One of the biggest shockers for me watching this game back…seeing how often Joshua Kelley (4-7-0) is in the game. He played 18 snaps but seemed in the game more than that. He was rotating in/out with Austin Ekeler (6-7-0, 4-48-0/7) as soon as the very first 1st-series.

They tried to get Kelley going a bit with a power run game, but the Ravens were having it and then the game got out of hand so fast that there was no need for a run game.

Kelley is pulling into the strong #2 back position…the desired handcuff for Ekeler right now.

 -- Mike Williams (2-27-0/5) was in and out of the game with his injury being managed, but when he was in, he looked fine. Had an early bomb that missed. His big catch fell short of the goal line for a TD…but when he landed he was hurt, took a while to get up, and didn’t play much after that. He should be fine with the bye week off…hopefully.

It just feels like, to me, that Keenan Allen (5-50-0/5) is becoming a lower option in Herbert’s eyes than Williams. Allen has 1 TD this season and has been 50 yards or less in three of his last 4 games. With Williams mostly out of the game here, Allen didn’t start getting catches until late when the game was out of hand. I’m not getting a good vibe off Allen right now.

 -- Jared Cook (4-25-1/7) was a primary focus here because you beat the Ravens by avoiding that secondary but Cook too often couldn’t separate or make the tough catches. He’s not going to be a strong TE1 this season…it just looks like time is catching up to him, and Donald Parham (2-10-0/2) is seeing decent snaps and key red zone targets.

 -- Another week, another Chargers-DST gets stomped. 40+ allowed to CLE Week 5. 30+ here for Baltimore. I keep saying how good they are, and then they get pushed around…what gives?

The fall coincides with the Chargers getting banged up at linebacker, and then facing the #1 and #4 run games in the NFL the past two weeks…and losing the battles to them. A break coming on the schedule ahead, except for Week 10 v. MIN might be another run game problem they can’t handle. They need Kenneth Murray back, bad.

Let’s see how they fare with a week off and facing NE and PHI Weeks 8-9…two decent run teams/good O-Lines (when healthy). Dallas is a top run team in the NFL, and LAC held them down Week 2.

Snap Counts of Interest:

51 = Brown

45 = Bateman

34 = Duvernay

26 = Latavius

22 = Le’Veon

21 = Devonta

36 = J Cook

26 = Parham

51 = K Allen

40 = Guyton

29 = Palmer

20 = Mk Williams

34 = Ekeler

18 = Kelley

08 = J Jackson

Ross Jacobs

FFM

21 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 6: Titans 34, Bills 31

RC and I seem to have somewhat differing opinions about how this game went and the state of the two teams. RC believes that Tennessee came in and really took it to the Bills. He thinks they played a great game and really grabbed hold of the AFC South with an impressive, season-defining win.

It's hard to argue with that...but I'm going to try.

Let me start by saying the game I saw went a bit differently. I saw the Bills look mostly unstoppable on offense all night. And I saw a Titans group that kept getting lucky break after lucky break to keep them in it. A 76 yard run straight up the gut by Derrick Henry where he was virtually untouched, a deep pass that bounced off a defender's helmet that Julio somehow adjusted to and caught on the sidelines, untimely penalties on the Bills, a 4th and goal stop by the Titans defense on a Josh Allen sneak...there were multiple lucky breaks for the Titans that all piled up and allowed them to win this game.

I'm not saying they didn't play well. They did. What I'm saying is I believe if you played this game 10 times the Titans win maybe 3-4 of them. I think this was one of those somewhat fluky wins that decent teams sometimes get over elite teams. It happens every year multiple times. Not every win has to “mean” something or announce some new reality for a team.

I don't think the evaluation of either team changes all that much. To my eyes Buffalo is still one of the 2-3 best teams in the league, in competition with the Cardinals primarily. Tennessee seems like the same solid but unspectacular team they've been for the past couple years. I think they win 10 or 11 games, the AFC South, and then get busted in the playoffs by a better team...possibly Buffalo. At the end of the day they are still a decent but not great offense (8th in points and 11th in yards) based around a power running attack and a mediocre to terrible defense (24th in points and yards). That's not the makeup of a great team.

I still don't even think the AFC South is a for sure lock for Tennessee. They have to be the favorites, but they've been the favorites all along. They still have several difficult games coming up, and the Colts are improving rapidly. This was a massive boost to Tennessee's chances, winning arguably their toughest matchup all year, but it was still just one game, and I don't believe it heralds a changing of the guard.

*RC NOTE: I think this Titans win is huge, even if lucky in some respects, for the AFC South big picture...this was a suspected loss that the Titans stole to stay 2-games ahead of wobbly Indy. Had the Titans lost, the Colts are a game back. Tennessee keeps a two-game lead here, which is an obvious edge. When the Colts play Buffalo it will be at Buffalo Week 11...you know they’ll lose that...another reason this win was so key for TENN. 

Fantasy Notes

--Derrick Henry (20-143-3, 2-13-0/3) is an institution..just note half his yards came on a single weird carry after he was touched at the line and then the safeties took a bad angle on him. On his other 19 carries he got a grand total of 67 yards. That's not a knock on Henry so much as a compliment to the Buffalo defense and a commentary on how lucky Tennessee got here.

--As I said last week AJ Brown (7-91-0/9) looks fine, but now your buy low window is closed.

*RC NOTE: I was anti-AJB last week. Didn't like the way he looked, etc, didn;t like his 2021 output. All was well 2nd-half here. No more Brown worries for me. 

--Brown certainly looks better than Julio Jones (3-59-0/5) who was nearly shut out but for a miracle catch after an underthrown Tannehill pass hit a defender in the back of his helmet. Not sure what's going on with Julio, but he just doesn't look like he's moving like he usually does. I'm guessing he's still not 100% recovered from his injuries. 

As long as he doesn't aggravate them he might be the new buy low on this team. At full strength he's going to pull in 7-8 targets a game, about 5 catches for 70 yards, and a shot at a TD. That's solid work. I have no idea how available he might be right now since his name holds so much value, but if you can get him in a cheap deal I think it could be a nice upgrade depending on what else you have.

--Ryan Tannehill (18-29 for 216 yards, 0 TD/1 INT, 2-3-1) continues to put up boring numbers in fantasy, BUT this was against a very good Buffalo defense. I think this might actually be a sign that he could be making a return to his very solid numbers from 2019-2020. Now that Brown seems to be fully healthy and Julio is on the mend, the team won't have to lean quite so hard into Henry. If you need a bye week QB or a good #2 Tannehill could be your guy. Love his chances to explode this week against a pitiful Kansas City defense.

--There's nothing more to add on Josh Allen (35-47 for 353 yards, 3 TD/1 INT, 9-26-0). He wasn't perfect here and easily could have had another 50 yards and 1-2 TD's with a few more accurate passes, but it's just nitpicking (like how everyone is taking a rare chance to jab Mahomes right now). These guys are the elite of the elite, and in my opinion, nearly beyond reproach. Allen is currently leading all QB's in fantasy and will be in the running for top guy all year. Hope you bought him on our suggestion when the national media was bashing him the first couple weeks of the season.

--It was just a matter of time until Stefon Diggs (5-89-1/11) had a big game. It could have been a lot bigger. He and Justin Jefferson have been on the verge of huge games all year and just haven't been able to connect so far. They will soon.

--The biggest fantasy news from this game though was that Dawson Knox hurt his hand and will be out for a few weeks. I hate that for all the Knox owners as RC and I have been pushing his arrival recently, but sometimes these things happen.

*RC NOTE: I am led to believe this Knox injury will have out 4+ weeks...possibly 6+. Broken hand for a receiver is no small thing. Buffalo has no reason to rush him back, and then if you see BUF trade for like Evan Engram...you know they’re taking their time PLUS it will be competition for Knox upon his return. 

--In Knox's absence there are two players that are really helped. Emmanuel Sanders (5-91-0/8) and Cole Beasley (7-81-1/9) get a bump up for now. Both guys have been on and off usable, but it's been hard to pin them down. The Bills have been blowing teams out so badly that they don't always need to throw. These shootout games are best for Sanders and Beasley. I like both to be a bit more consistent while Knox is out. Of the two I'd rather have Sanders. He is more consistently involved. Beasley is more matchup dependent.

IDP Notes

--David Long (14 tackles) has started the last two games after Jayon Brown got hurt, and in those two games he's racked up 26 tackles. The two obvious questions are: who is David Long and can he keep getting numbers like this?

Long was a 6th round pick out of West Virginia in the 2019 draft. He was extremely productive as a 3-year starter, amassing 252 tackles, 14 sacks, and 40 tfl's. So why did such a productive player fall to the 6th round? He's pretty small, checking in at 5'11” 227 lbs.

In 2020 he started 5 games at the end of the year, and in those games he had 6, 5, 12, 9, and 8 tackles (40 total, 8/g). This streak is no accident. Keep an eye on Brown's return though because that could signal the end of the line for Long. He definitely deserves more playing time after this though. We'll have to see what the team decides to do.

Snap Counts of Interest

71 = Emmanuel Sanders

67 = Cole Beasley

62 = Stefon Diggs

42 = Zach Moss

35 = Devin Singletary

42 = AJ Brown

35 = Julio Jones

29 = Nick Westbrook-Ikhine

R.C. Fischer

FFM

21 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 7: Falcons 30, Dolphins 28

Two bad teams playing a game that ended up being a good/fun game to watch…the Falcons kept taking two-score leads, and Miami kept crawling back in, and then the Dolphins took the lead late…but too much time left for the Falcons to get down in FG range and kick an easy game winner as time expired.

The Computer/I had picked Atlanta to win but Miami to cover +2.5…so, everyone in my house went home happy with this one.

Miami has lost three games by late field goal now…losers of six in a row, (1-6) on the year. My win total ‘under’ bet on Miami is nearly locked in…unless they win out. So, everyone in my house went home a winner after this one! Did I already say that? Well, it’s doubly true – loved this game outcome as a bettor.

Miami is headed towards a 2-4 win season on their current trajectory…but that could all change with a looming Deshaun Watson deal next week. We’ll see if the Miami fortunes are about to change soon.

Atlanta has crawled to (3-3)…you know, good quality wins over NYG, NYJ, and MIA (teams a combined 3-17). They have an OK matchup this week with Carolina…and then the schedule will really start to get them from there. We see ATL finishing with 4-5 wins. The schedule is going to be unkind to this secretly really bad team.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- I definitely have to lead-off with this: This was the best NFL game I’ve seen Tua Tagovailoa (32-40 for 291 yards, 4 TDs/2 INTs, 4-29-0) work/play. He was a machine working those quick baby throws (from 0-5 yards from the line of scrimmage).

In the past, Tua has run the baby throw offense and been erratic or too slow on decisions too often…but in this game he was like a robot snapping off perfect 1–5-yard bullet timing passes and short slants and short comebacks all over. It was really humming. It’s darn near unstoppable when it works the way it did versus Atlanta.

The problem is whenever Tua has to throw under pressure, or that quick throw isn’t there, or Tua needs to throw it deeper…he just closes his eyes and floats one out and prays…thus, the 32 completed passes for 291 yards, just 7.3 yards per completion on a near 300+ yard day.

Whatever you want to call it…it was working here. The Falcons couldn’t figure it out or put needed pressure on Tua, so it was like he was playing easy 7-on-7 ball most of this game.

It’s really been two weeks in a row of it for Tua. If you can keep Tua in this rhythm…in this system…and well-protected, he’ll slice you with a thousand paper cuts. 32 and 33 pass completions in a game his last two starts. 310.0 yards passing per game and 6 TDs/3 INTs in those two games. It will be interesting to see if he can keep it up against Buffalo, in the colder temps and with possible drizzle.

My guess is…no, he cannot. But after that, maybe…maybe as the starter for Carolina or Washington as well.

 -- As long as Tua is doing his thing, then Jaylen Waddle (7-83-0/8) and Mike Gesicki (7-85-1/8) will continue to flourish. Waddle is playing pitch & catch with Tua, and could lead the league in catches if they stay together…while Gesicki is making some really complicated, under duress catches. Gesicki has become one of the best receiving TEs in the game.

It’s not impossible to think Gesicki will be the #2-3 scoring TE in PPR this season…as long as Tua remains there.

 -- Matt Ryan (25-40 for 336 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT) is working much better since Week 2…

Weeks 1-2 = (0-2) record, 2 TDs/3 INTs

Weeks 3-7 = (3-1) record, 10 TDs/1 INTs…it helps that he has faced mostly all bottom tier pass defenses

A matchup with a top 5 pass defense in Carolina Week 8, but then back to bottom 10 pass defenses…NO and DAL after that.

 -- The rise of Matt Ryan is being aided by the rise of his best two players…

1) Cordarrelle Patterson (14-60-1, 2-1-0/5) has taken over as the starting and main runner of the ball RB, and he looks terrific. Weird receiving game here…passes tipped at the line or covered tight by Xavien Howard a few times. I don’t think there is any cause for receiving alarm.

2) Kyle Pitts (7-163-0/8) took a HUGE leap forward in this game. Pitts is becoming Ryan’s go-to option…he flung several prayers to Pitts racing deep, and then Pitts would keep making surreal catches while tightly covered.

Arthur Smith has finally stopped with the TE/blocking nonsense with Pitts and just has him as basically a WR now…which is what we wanted right away, but it’s here now in Week 7.

Pitts has officially arrived as a top 1-2 TE for Fantasy.

Where are all the FF analysts who gleefully warned that rookie TEs don’t produce TE1 seasons…because they have a plot chart and cool infographic to show you the past 20 years of rookie TE performance in the NFL/FF? It doesn’t matter what the past is…the NFL changes/evolves every 2-3 years, and Kyle Pitts has no historical comp.

He is the magical unicorn rookie.

 -- Russell Gage (4-67-1/6) returned from injury and had a nice game. All the attention on Ridley-Pitts-CPatt will make Gage an attractive WR3/Flex option, especially when garbage time happens…and it should happen a lot for ATL.

 -- I thought Myles Gaskin (15-67-0, 4-10-1/4) was being quasi-benched for Salvon Ahmed (7-26-0, 2-26-0/2) after watching the Week 6 game where Ahmed was in late for the comeback effort. But it was Malcolm Brown who actually started this game and ran the whole 1st-series, but then got hurt and Gaskin filtered in and we’re back to Gaskin as lead…I guess.

 -- Falcons rookie SAF Richie Grant (6 tackles) played a season high 79% of the snaps in this game. He’s been playing more the last two games. He was our #1 rated safety for this 2021 NFL Draft.

I didn’t see anything on tape here that got me excited that IDP usage was imminent, however. He still looks a bit lost but should wash out of that in a few weeks and we can reevaluate. He’s more a cover safety than a tackler anyway.

Snap Counts of Interest:

61 = Waddle

39 = Hollins

30 = Pr Williams

19 = Ford

46 = Gaskin

22 = Ahmed

05 = Brown

46 = CPatt

38 = MK Davis

46 = Ridley

40 = Gage

14 = Sharpe

12 = Zaccheaus

R.C. Fischer

FFM

21 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 6: Vikings 34, Panthers 28 OT

I don’t know how this was close…or how this went to OT. The Vikings were pretty well handling the Panthers all game, but the Panthers D was nails early -- holding MIN to field goals halting goal-to-go situations to keep it from getting out of hand immediately. Carolina a blocked punt for a TD later 2nd-half to aid the cause, and then as this game was about over (down 8/under 2-minutes) Darnold threw for a miracle 4th & 10 conversion to keep the game tying drive alive…then Patrick Peterson got hurt and left the game on said drive with Carolina scoring that late TD and adding 2-pointer, and Minnesota drove down with less than minute for a makeable field goal…that was missed. Justice was served when Minnesota got the ball in OT and went right down the field for the game winning TD.

Minnesota hits their bye week at (3-3)…could’ve been (5-1), could’ve been (1-5). This is a pretty good but erratic team, a ‘something is missing’ good team that could beat any team in the NFL. They’ve had a tough schedule so far, and it stays tough after their bye. We see them finishing between 9-11 wins…a shot to win the NFC North title, but more likely is a strong/no-one-wants-to-play-them wild card.

Carolina (3-3) has lost three-straight…all games they had a chance to win. Sam Darnold is killing them, and I think they know that now. Everyone says Deshaun Watson to Miami, but I think Carolina is going to make a run at this and try and launch themselves as the future of the NFC South.

If they make that trade this week, they would rush Watson in as fast as they could…NFL allowing. Sam is dead and they know it. Carolina could send multiple picks and C.J. Henderson and Robby Anderson to Houston for him. Houston could then trade Robby before the deadline. The NFL is rarely that creative, so it’s just passing daydream thoughts by me…that won’t come close to coming true. But a boy can dream.

Carolina is headed to an 8-9 win season with Sam, but that all changes depending upon IF Deshaun arrives…and WHEN he’d be allowed to play.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Chuba Hubbard (16-61-1, 1-4-0/3) had a nice enough game here. He’s working like any random OK RB would thrown into a situation. The growing issue with him is he’s dropping passes/is a problem on 3rd-downs blocking, etc.

Royce Freeman doesn’t seem 100% ‘right’ or lost his athleticism during the pandemic…so, he’s not touching the ball much. So, because Hubbard is having catch issues and Freeman is a zero…the Panthers signed Reggie Bonnafon (a fave of mine who never gets a real chance) back to their roster (he’s been there on and off for 2+ years).

I’m always hoping Bonnafon gets a real chance, but likely he won’t see much action…and may get cut once CMC returns, but just note Bonnafon is there if Hubbard gets hurt and if CMC is out longer than expected (aka his typical).

 -- We saw the debut of rookie WR Shi Smith (2-20-0/2) in this game for Carolina. He’s a really good slot-type WR who will be a starter in 2022, but a #4-5 WR in 2021. However, Terrace Marshall has a concussion and Brandon Zylstra went on IR…so, Smith make a splash this week as a forced in #3 WR.

 -- FYI…Tyler Conklin (3-71-0/5) had his hands on a short TD pass early on, but good coverage batted it away. Had he caught that TD, he would have been the #10 TE in half-PPR PPG since Week 3…ahead of Darren Waller (#12).

Not saying he’s a TE1 stud…just saying he’s one of 15-20 NFL starting TEs vying from the #3-15 spot in the TE scoring rankings any given stretch of the season.

Conklin is the 11th most targeted TE on the season to date, #11 in total catches. #12 in yards.

The 26th most owned TE in Fantasy, currently.

 -- Dalvin Cook makes Kirk Cousins (33-48 for 373 yards, 3 TDs/0 INTs) go from a QB2 to a QB1. When Cook missed/was hurt the prior three games (essentially), Cousins threw for 5 TDs/3 INTs. With Cook playing full, Cousins has racked up 8 TDs/0 INTs and two 300+ yard efforts in those 3 games.

It’s like what Saquon does to Daniel Jones…sucks without Saquon, is plausible/decent-looking with him.

 -- K.J. Osborn (6-78-1/7) scored the game winning TD. I really like what I see from KJO, but you can’t get too confident in him because Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen are always more preferred. However…

That Cousins-Cook affect I mentioned? Osborn averaged 2.8 rec. and 22.0 yards with Cook out/hurt. In the games with Cook fully in, where Cousins went nuts…6.0 rec., 81.7 yards, 0.67 TDs per game…a legit WR1.5-2.0 with Cook playing fully, per early trends.

Osborn has equal to or more catches, yards, and TDs this season than the following WRs (who have played 6 games): Mecole Hardman, Laviska Shenault, Darnell Mooney, Rondale Moore, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Allen Robinson. Yet, I bet without looking…he’s the least owned of them all in Fantasy (7-8% owned in the tracking I see).

 -- There was one fresh STANDOUT player for me from this game…and that was Carolina rookie CB Keith Taylor (10 tackles, 3 PDs).

Taylor was going toe-to-toe with Jefferson and Thielen all game. So much so, Cousins was not really going his way wherever he was. Cousins went after A.J. Bouye mostly. Donte Jackson some. When forcing it against Taylor, half the time Taylor was glued to the WR, but they made a spectacular catch on the play. The other catches around Taylor were him way off and a quick tunnel screen or slant was thrown harmlessly in front of him. Big time showing for Taylor here.

Taylor should be a starter with Stephon Gillmore and maybe Donte Jackson (with C.J. Henderson possibly traded again). Gillmore-Horn-Taylor will be a badass coverage unit in 2022. I liked Taylor a lot on scouting his tape pre-Senior Bowl/Combine time. I thought he was a top coverage prospect, but he didn’t test great (but was fine), and we had to discount his metrics grade some. He looks like a future strong CB, possible lockdown guy to me.

If Carolina has Gillmore-Henderson-Jackson-Taylor the rest of this season, with their great D-Line and when Shaq Thompson returns – it could be the best all-around 1-11 defensive unit in football. With a mostly great schedule Weeks 7-12. Bye Week 13.

 -- Minnesota has an emerging defense too, but the loss of Patrick Peterson (who has been playing great for MIN, a career renaissance) for a few weeks is going to kill them against Dallas and Baltimore Weeks 8-9…and then Week 10 at LAC, if PP isn’t back by then.

Could be three shootouts for Kirk Cousins ahead…

Snap Counts of Interest:

48 = Hubbard

23 = Freeman

40 = I Thomas

38 = Tremble

76 = Conklin

24 = Herndon

66 = Cook

12 = Mattison

87 = Thielen

84 = Jefferson

48 = Osborn 

R.C. Fischer

FFM

20 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 6: Raiders 34, Broncos 24

Another chapter in the files of…head coaches don’t matter/they actually suppress performance…as we had the Raiders going out and scissor-kicking the Broncos in their minus-Gruden debut. Wow, what a distraction! How could the team ever go on without Jon Gruden!?!? Pretty easily it appears. These guys aren’t five years old, and Jon Gruden has many former players and co-workers have been trying to tell us all along that this guy is a car salesman, and a bad football coach – but it’s the NFL, and ESPN, so these things get covered up and you get the Gruden Grinder shoved down your throat and you will like it.

Is it always going to be myopic, no-business-sense, no real-world experience people and/or weirdos among us as NFL head coaches?

I guess it’s the same we get for politicians and CEOs, so what’s the sense in complaining? I’ll just sit back and roast them for pleasure year-after-year, as they give me a never-ending supply of material.

So, because the Raiders were so distraught and distracted by the loss of beloved Gruden…they got the opening kick and went down the field and scored a TD. Then Denver responded to tie it. The next thing you knew it was 31-10 Raiders going into the 4th-quarter. Denver added a bunch of nonsense against a prevent defense to make it seem closer than it was.

Denver is dying, and I warned after the (3-0) start…that something wasn’t right. The Computer was flashing signals. The Computer flashed Cleveland and Denver problems/warning signs after Week 3…and the two teams have a combined (1-5) record since (after starting a combined 5-1). The Computer sees Cleveland starting to pull out of the danger zone, but is not seeing as much hope for Denver to do the same…but some minor blips of hope. Now those two teams face each other this week with A LOT on the line.

Denver may have gotten a break this week on TNF with the Browns missing their entire starting backfield and possibly their main two starting WRs (ignoring DPJ, who is their best…but they don’t think so). If Denver can steal a win at Cleveland this week, and then beat Washington Week 8…they would be (5-3) and needing to win four of their final 9 games to slip into the playoff picture at the end – but their schedule is not going to allow it. If we push them to (5-3) after Week 8, then the Computer sees them still finishing (7-10)…going (2-7) down the stretch.

The Browns are (3-3) but are a top 5 NFL team at full strength. They are like a Fantasy team that is (3-3) and having lost their last two and are facing all kinds of injuries – it’s sad when you know you’re team is really good but circumstances and schedule are killing you – the Browns job, your FF-job in that similar/near-to-it position, is to just try and win one of next 2…two of the next 4…tread water to buy time for your team to get healthy and for you to get lucky on waivers. It’s not a make a five for six player swap/wild trade to try and solve all the issues in one week (which you won’t). Sometimes, you gotta take these FF-punches…lose a round or two in the fight while wearing your opponent down, preserving your energy and learning about your opponents – and then at the right time, you get healed up/rested up and go on the offensive.

If the Browns can go (1-1) the next two weeks, stay at .500 (4-4), while getting Baker-Chubb-Hunt-Landry-OBJ healthy…then they can go on the offensive again starting Week 9 at Cincy. And maybe they only get a wild card instead of the division because of this bad luck…but Cleveland getting to the playoffs fully healthy is a dangerous thing. Your job in Fantasy, if you’re scuffling now to things out of your full control…keep treading water, healing up, landing a surprise find in the next 1-2-3 weeks, and hit a stride in the playoffs. There’s a lot of season left…get to the playoffs is the priority…winning the division would be nice, but you gotta get to the playoffs and you still have plenty of time to heal and to maneuver your way there – you gotta believe it and not panic into it.

We project Cleveland to finish with 9-10 wins and a wild card at this stage. The Ravens have caught all the breaks for the AFC North race, the Browns have not.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- What a game for Courtland Sutton (8-94-1/14)! About 2.5 quarters in, I thought he was going to be a dud. But Denver went on a tear against a prevent defense, led by Sutton.

The thing about this game was – Sutton left 4 more catches for 100+ yards and another TD on the table with just-missed throws/attempts. Key thing is…the attempts, the intent is HIGH.

Sutton is a WR1 talent that I worry has a WR1.5-2.0 future in this offense. So, I’m willing to explore trading Sutton (if he’s excess) to fill any other needs or sell high and make a big move for upgraded talent/depth.

I’m not dumping him. I don’t fear a fall for him as much as I do Deebo. I’m just exploring my sell options to see if I get what I WANT, or I just stick with him.

 -- Big game for Noah Fant (9-97-1/11)…a bit in the same way Sutton did – got rolling as the defense softened off a big lead/cushion, but it still counted nicely for FF.

Since Week 2, Fant is averaging 10.2 half-PPR PPG and Darren Waller (5-59-0/5) is at 9.0 PPG in that same stretch. Watching them work, Fant looked as athletic and important, or more so, than Waller here.

My great fear from last year, and into this season on Waller is coming true – that he’d be just a good option for Carr/Vegas, not the elite one…he was just a nice top 6-10 TE in FF last year for a half a season, then finished real strong to puff his final numbers (which is fine but it all came in a small stretch late). This season, the huge Week 1 and then a bunch of TE2 work the last five weeks. It’s not a Waller issue, it’s a Carr issue. Carr is spreading it around and no one receiver is predictably prospering for FF.

Most people would kill to have Waller over Fant, which makes Waller a great sell high. I’m not sure I wouldn’t rather have Fant…and if that’s the case, knowing I could get Fant (or Schultz) + ___ for Waller, I’m into that redraft upgrade. Nothing against Waller, everything against his usage/output pattern. I’m fine sticking with him, but I wouldn’t hesitate to trade him hot either.

Since Week 2, Waller and Fant both have been targeted 34 times…the 4th most among TEs. You know who #1 is (Kelce), but did you know #2 is Mike Gesicki (40)?

 -- Just a quick aside…I’m a fan of WR Kendall Hinton (5-37-0/5), since scouting him as one of the 10 best WR talents from the 2020 NFL Draft. That statement seems ludicrous, unless you know how good a scout I am…and I am. Well, Hinton finally is getting a shot (after mass WR injury) and he’s playing great football. He’s working the slot and making clutch catches (has great hands) – he’s kinda becoming that Curtis Samuel 3rd-down assassin-like that Teddy had/made in 2020 with Carolina.

Not sure that FF gold is coming from it, but just know Hinton is rising in snaps and catches every week the past three weeks with Hamler gone. But when Jerry Jeudy comes back…it’s over.

 -- If you ignore the game where Teddy played a half and left with injury, in his other 5 games…he’s thrown for 260+ yards in four of the 5 games…11 TDs in those five games.

 -- Not for nothing, but I’m not sure there’s a running back I enjoy (as a scout of such things) watching run the ball more than Javonte Williams (11-53-0, 3-15-0/3). The guy is going to be a workhorse star of the future…I just wish that future was soon.

However, because it’s not happened yet…he’s getting ‘obtainable’. And for Dynasty, I want to obtain. For redraft, I do want him as well…but only on the cheap. His redraft price is sliding away, down…and that’s a good time to buy. But his touches are only RB2.5 stuff right now. But he’ll pop one day, and then there’s no looking back.

 -- Speaking of run games…

We have a new internal O-Line grading system we’re playing with this year. The Computer says there are four ‘F’ grade O-Lines for the run game right now…

#4) Las Vegas (F+)

#3) New England (F)

#2) Houston (F)

#1/the worst) NY Giants (F)

The Patriots and Texans are getting there through injury, as you could say NYG has as well (a little bit) but the Raiders have earned this through offseason mismanagement. The other three have hope that they get injured OL assets back soon. Las Vegas just stinks.

Josh Jacobs (16-53-1, 1-29-0/1) yards per carry in each of his 4 games this season: 3.4, 3.1, 3.2, 3.3. Wow. That’s no Bueno…but goes to reflect the pool O-Line grades we have.

 -- Bryan Edwards (2-67-0/4) had his typical game. He did the following in the 4th-quarter, on 3rd & 6 which really blew Denver’s comeback hopes with this dagger: https://youtu.be/gsAmA54Ws8Y

Still, Edwards is a ghost for 3+ quarters then makes his 4th-quarter gem play and leaves on a high note but a low game for FF. https://youtu.be/f3ALoSiJaEE

No progress for Edwards becoming anything stable, hopeful, relevant for FF still.

Snap Counts of Interest:

72 = Patrick

72 = Fant

71 = Sutton

51 = Hinton

43 = Gordon

38 = Javonte

06 = Boone

36 = Jacobs

12 = Drake

08 = Richard

46 = Waller

43 = Edwards

37 = Ruggs

Ross Jacobs

FFM

20 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 6: Buccaneers 28, Eagles 22 

The final score doesn't really capture how one-sided this game was.

The Buccaneers came out firing and took a quick lead, but the Eagles responded with a good drive of their own to tie it up. After that the Bucs began to pull away.

With 5:00 minutes left in the 3rd it was 28-7 Buccaneers and the Eagles were struggling to keep their heads above water. They would score with about 2 minutes left in the quarter and again with about 6 minutes left in the 4th quarter, but it was too little too late and the Bucs put the ball in Fournette's hands to grind out the win.

I don't think much has changed with the analysis of these two teams. The Buccaneers remain a dangerous but flawed team, one capable of beating any team any given week. They are a Superbowl contender, although probably not the outright favorites. The easy schedule should elevate them to the #2 seed in the NFC although #1 is still within reach if the Cardinals stumble against a tough NFC West division.

The Eagles aren't a good team, but they aren't absolutely terrible either. They look like a 6 or 7 win team, somewhere in that range. The offense is 19 in yards per game and 20th in scoring while the defense is 11th in yards per game but only 23rd in points per game. They have played a relatively hard schedule so far with losses to the Cowboys, Chiefs, and Buccaneers. They beat two of their other three opponents and should have won the 49'er game but for a bunch of dumb penalties and some bad luck. They have also struggled with injuries, particularly on the offensive line. This really isn't a bad team and the schedule ahead is manageable. They can still make a run at the NFC East provided Dallas comes back to earth. Don't count them out just yet.

Fantasy Notes

--It's said that in life there are only two sure things: death and taxes. In fantasy football there are also only a few sure things, and one of those is that Jalen Hurts (12-26 for 115 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 10-44-2) is going to score 20 points in the 2nd half of games.

I said it last week and I'll say it again this week, stop doubting him. It doesn't matter what you think of his real world talent. All that matters is that he's a fantasy monster. He is built to succeed. On the season he now has 8 passing TD's and 5 rushing TD's. Yes, he's had 3 games under 200 yards passing, but that doesn't matter when he's scoring touchdowns and rushing for 30+ yards every single game. He's the #5 ranked QB at the moment ahead of Lamar, Herbert, and Dak. He's a mere 9 points from being #1 ahead of Josh Allen.

The next three weeks look juicy too. He's got the somewhat soft Raiders defense, the league worst Lions, and then the Chargers who struggle against the run and just got demolished by the most similar QB to Hurts, Lamar Jackson. Only one thing can stop the Hurts train this year and I'll talk about that in a moment). Otherwise, he's going to finish as a top 10 scorer and will definitely be in the mix for #1 overall.

My one concern is that the stupid Philadelphia fans are going to get him benched for the skeletal remains of Joe Flacco. Unfortunately, Sirianni seems to be falling into the same trap that Nagy fell into with Trubisky, thinking that his QB has to look and play a certain way instead of focusing on the results. Nagy absolutely killed any confidence Trubisky had by constantly calling nothing but short passes for him. There was never anything particularly wrong with Trubisky. He just got put in terrible situations and then was expected to bail the team out despite being handled like he was incompetent. Hurts is starting to get the same treatment, and it is concerning. The only passes that get called for him are screens and curls anymore, and since the defense knows what's coming they are just squatting on these passes. Hurts has no room to throw the ball.

The coaching staff has to loosen up and start trusting Hurts or at least pretend to. It's their gameplan that is holding things back right now, not Hurts. I don't think this situation will play out quite the same though because unlike Trubisky, Hurts isn't soft mentally. He's a competitor and has been kicked around and treated like this before at Alabama. He didn't let that stop him either and left for Oklahoma where he was even more impressive. I believe he'll get through this, but we definitely have to keep an eye on Sirianni and his attitude towards Hurts. I'm concerned but not fearful...yet...

--RC is right that the Hurts-DeVonta Smith (2-31-0/4) connection doesn't look quite right yet. DeVonta has been ok but not the assassin we expected. Some of that is this stupid game plan of screen passes and curls holding him back, but some of it is Smith as well. Hopefully it's just him getting used to the physical aspect of the NFL. In college teams couldn't afford to try and press him at the line. In the NFL they are on him constantly or else playing off and immediately closing the gap because they know it's a short route. The best thing this coaching staff could do would be to start calling double moves for DeVonta. That would really open this offense up for everyone. For now though you just have to hold and wait on Smith for fantasy. His time will come.

--The WR trending up for Philly right now is Quez Watkins (3-44-0/5). I've been pointing him out since the year started and begging the team to get him the ball more. Apparently they've finally figured out that the speedster is their best screen receiver and have started to get him more involved. He's still just a random WR3 for the moment, and I doubt he ever becomes more, but there is always the potential for Watkins to break a long play.

--With Zach Ertz getting traded you would expect that Dallas Goedert could move into an established TE1 role the rest of schedule, but it may be a bit choppy at times as this passing game ebbs and flows. I think it's a good bet, but good luck trying to get Goedert away from his owner right now. You can't overpay though because he's still likely to be more TE5-8 than top 3 or 4.

--RC and I thought Kenneth Gainwell might have broken out a couple weeks ago, but the Eagles have a funny way of showing it if so. Gainwell has barely been involved the last two weeks. I'm thinking it's just a blip, a weird matchup decision of some sort, and that Gainwell will be more involved going forward. This week against the Raiders linebackers is a perfect spot to get him more touches. If he's a ghost again this week then you can probably forget about it for the time being.

--We speculated that Leonard Fournette (22-81-2, 6-46-0/6) had completely taken over this backfield, and here you go. A true RB1 performance. Now I have to caution everyone from thinking that this will automatically last the rest of the year. Every time you think Arians is ready to go all-in with something he seems to pull it back. Fournette looks like a good start right now, but I could absolutely foresee Ronald Jones getting out of the doghouse and back into the mix before long. Stay optimistic, but remain cautious with this situation.

--I've spilled a lot of ink discussing the Buccaneers WRs this year, and it's another issue that might continually change, but for the moment it certainly seems like Antonio Brown (9-93-1/13) might have grabbed the lead in this race as Brady's bff. But even more so than Fournette, I remain very skeptical of assuming that Brown is now the unquestioned lead. He's still playing far fewer snaps than the other two receivers. I know Brady looks to him when he needs a big play, but I still suspect that Brady is playing matchups more often than not. I would continue to expect a rotation among the three which leaves you trying to guess who is most involved in a particular week. The good news is that the volume is there to sustain all three at decent levels.

--Last week I warned that OJ Howard (6-49-1/7) would have a big game soon. He's been quite involved in Gronkowski's absence and that could continue for a while as Gronk's injuries sounded significant and the Bucs will try to keep him healthy for the playoffs. Consider Howard a TE1.5 with upside for the time being. He's getting decent time and is quite overlooked in fantasy, so if you really need a TE he's probably available to get you through a few weeks.

IDP Notes

--Alex Singleton (15 tackles) is absolutely on fire. Every week I can point out linebackers putting up really good numbers, but Singleton has arguably been the best producer in the league and also the most underrated for fantasy purposes. There's a good chance he's still available on your waiver wire despite putting up a ridiculous 67 (11.2/g) through 6 games. He might be a tick down against the pass heavy Raiders and Chargers the next few weeks, but I don't expect his numbers to fall off too far. He's been money every game this year and doesn't look to be going anywhere.

Snap Counts of Interest

70 = Mike Evans

68 = Chris Godwin

37 = Antonio Brown

49 = OJ Howard

44 = Cameron Brate

47 = Leonard Fournette

14 = Ronald Jones

51 = DeVonta Smith

43 = Jalen Reagor

40 = Quez Watkins

43 = Miles Sanders

12 = Kenneth Gainwell

R.C. Fischer

FFM

20 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 6: Chiefs 31, Washington 13

I don’t think anyone was shocked by the 18-point win by KC over dying Washington. What was shocking, and maybe missed by those not watching this game – Washington led 13-10 at halftime. The Chiefs were looking as sloppy as ever, again, and were down. Washington came out of the half, stopped KC right away…then drove down for a field goal…missed it and then the Chiefs decided that maybe throwing passes to Tyreek Hill would be a good idea, better than an offense based on DeMarcus Robinson, and suddenly they started moving the ball and lighting up the scoreboard.

Washington is now (2-4) and are on the brink. Another loss, and this season has probably officially gotten away from them…but if they can somehow beat Green Bay, then maybe they can beat Denver the following week and get to their BYE and maybe get Ryan Fitzpatrick and Curtis Samuel + Logan Thomas back and Antonio Gibson some time to heal, and perhaps this defense gels a bit.

I’m not saying that as a wishful Washington-thinker. I think they’re terrible. I am just noting that the current regime thinks they still have wild card hope if they can win at least one of their next 2 games. There’s a path to 8-9 wins but I think they’re headed for 5-6 wins.

Kansas City moves to (3-3), and it’s deserved. They are not the best team in football, not even close. But they are still very viable/good…can win a Super Bowl if you let them into the playoffs. The Chargers getting whacked Week 6 re-opened the door for KC to win the AFC West. A lot of weeks to go. We project 11+ wins for KC right now, a dogfight with LAC for the division.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- What’s the deal with Antonio Gibson (10-44-0, 2-0-0/3)?

He’s got the shin issue. He reaggravates it with any good hit to his legs…and players get tackled with human missiles to the shin area all the time, and don’t think the opposing defense isn’t aware of Gibson’s shin. It’s a ticking time bomb with a giant target painted on it.

Here’s what I know: Having an MRI on the shin this week. If he’s OK, they’ll play him because of what I wrote above – Washington likely thinks they are still in the playoff hunt with a little luck. Week 7 and 8 are huge for the Washington 2021 season. But it is possible Gibson is just too bad off and is shut down the next two weeks (and then a BYE) and returns after a three week rest/healing.

Gibson looks fine running the ball every week. He doesn’t look like a guy favoring his shin. But it is an issue for real/pain tolerance.

If Gibson plays Week 7, his reps will be managed and J.D. McKissic (8-45-0, 8-65-0/10) rises to power. And it will be J.D. as the FF guy to have, not Jaret Patterson (1-5-0, 1-0-0/1). Sure, Patterson will be involved if Gibson goes down – but McKissic is their main guy to try and win with right now. Patterson will see more work when the season is out of control – likely Week 10 (after their Wk9 bye) and beyond.

McKissic without Gibson is an RB1 threat in PPR. If you’re looking for RB help, instead of chasing Alex Collins or Khalil Herbert or whatever ‘lead back’ name of the moment – maybe go after a cheaper McKissic. He’s never seen as ‘the guy’, but he can be for a stretch…people respect him, so he’s not dirt cheap but he’s cheaper than he should be in PPR. And if Gibson goes out for a while…McKissic’s value explodes.

 -- Speaking of worthy backup RBs…Darrel Williams (21-62-2, 3-27-0/4) had a solid game with CEH out. He was clearly the lead back here. Very little Jerick McKinnon (3-10-0, 1-5-0/4)…although he did get 4 targets, but only connected on one of them.

McKinnon had a play early in the game where he muscled through a tackle and carried a defender forward to get a tough-run first down and I thought it would get him more looks, but he got ignored pretty much the rest of the way…because Eric Bieniemy is a genius and should be hired for every NFL job opening every year.

I don’t know that Williams won’t see more split/hot hand time with CEH when he returns. The offense seems more solid with Williams’s steady hand and blocking, but CEH has draft stock and Eric Bieniemy is an offensive genius, so what to do I know.

 -- Mecole Hardman (4-62-0/5) had a lot of targets last week…in a big loss to Buffalo…because Eric Bieniemy is an offensive genius not to be questioned. Did Hardman follow that up and is breaking out?

Of course, he didn’t. He sucks.

I don’t know what allure this guy has with everyone, but we’re gonna fixate on his 9-catch game Week 5…and ignore the catch counts in his other five games (3-5-3-2-4). Never consistent…never breaking out, but always a ‘sleeper’ for Fantasy analysts. Always, “Now may be the time…” How many years is it going to take for the ‘now’ part? He’s only working with the best QB of our lifetimes for three years now!

Speaking of eternal/wasted hope…Josh Gordon (0-0-0/0) in 11 snaps. Memba him? Wow, 11 whole snaps and no targets!

Remember 2013!!!

Remember his time as a Zapper in 2021? Those were good times: https://youtu.be/5LXhENdO9Es

 -- Ricky Seals-Jones (4-58-1/6) is getting a good run at TE with Logan Thomas back. I don’t trust it will keep up…it won’t keep up when Thomas returns. I don’t trust Thomas when he returns either. This is a sinking ship. I want Fitz + Logan, but not sure I’m ever going to get it.

 -- Taylor Heinicke (24-39 for 182 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 0-0-0/0) keeps declining in output week after week. He had those couple nice games Weeks 2-3-4 but has been dying off since. I’d think he would give this job back to Fitz in a few weeks, but Ron Rivera is so in the tank with Heinicke it may not be true.

 -- Nick Bolton (9 tackles, 1 TFL) is putting up great tackles and TFLs per snap this season…one of the best graded IDP LBs I see in my data (for output). He’s only playing 60-80% of the snaps in games…if/when he gets to 100%, he’s going to be a 10+ tackle a game guy and TFL leader among LBs. He’s just a really solid, classic hard hitting, instinctive linebacker…patrolling the middle for a team that opponents ALWAYS try to establish the run against, which favors Bolton for IDP tallies.

Snap Counts of Interest:

36 = McKissic

23 = Gibson

02 = Patterson

56 = McLaurin

47 = Dyami

12 = D Carter (I thought he might have a nice follow up from a positive Week 5…but, no…we need more Dyami drops)

59 = Darrel Williams

23 = McKinnon

67 = Kelce

38 = Noah Gray

R.C. Fischer

FFM

19 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 6: Rams 38, Giants 11

The Giants got the ball first and were methodically chopping their way down the field, and then a short pass to Kadarius Toney for a catch-and-run 1st-down…ended up Toney get tackled with a defender landing on his bad ankle, and he came up hobbling and out for the game – and that was pretty much the ballgame. The wind came out of the sails of NYG at that point. Then cannonballs were shot into those sails as one-by-one Giants players were getting hurt and leaving the game.

This was never a game, so there’s not a ton to read into for FF performances but there are things to consider for how to interpret the injury issues for NYG for FF performances going forward.

The Giants played about as scrappy as they could for as long as they could – they’ve just had their hearts and souls ripped out week-by-week. If we could restart this season and give NYG a healthy team…never losing Blake Martinez, and Golladay-Toney healthy and starting Week 1, and Saquon a full-go – this could’ve been a wild card hopeful with the improvement of Daniel Jones.

With that said, Giants fans should circle the wagons around this coaching staff and (yes) the GM. Most won’t. They’ll bitch and complain and write articles the rest of the season about what hot coordinator off the Chargers or Cardinals they can get to come and be the new head coach. It’s a mistake, but NFL superfans of a team are totally illogical.

The Rams get a free win here. Right place at the right time. Last week, they got Russell Wilson getting hurt. This week they got Toney and Barkley and Golladay and Martinez-less NYG. Why can’t my Fantasy teams ever draw the luck of the Rams schedule? I got the Browns schedule – non-stop top teams in the league having their peak scoring games the week they face me. The Rams schedule gets even easier ahead – they are getting a free pass to the playoffs and possible NFC West title due to it, but this team is a bit of a SAWFT fraud because they actually think they’re great while cashing in on such luck. Better to be lucky than good…

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- My main notes about this game are really not about this game, but about – What to do with Kadarius Toney (3-36-0/3) now?

The Giants season is effectively over, so be sure to have those crap-colored glasses on when playing pretend-GM of NYG. There’s no reason to rush anyone back. Toney probably never should’ve played to begin with…we were getting and giving reports pregame that his ankle was bothering him in warm-ups. 2+ minutes into the game he was done. We may not know the extent of the injury by Tuesday waiver night end, so we’re going to have to make guesses.

My projection would be: goes on IR for at least three games, but might need ankle surgery to be out (effectively) for the entire season…but more likely he gets 2-3 weeks off to see if a natural healing process is underway and if so it might be 4-5 weeks off to fully heal it. He’s an elite racehorse that should be treated with special care/not rushed back. One way or the other, you’re probably losing Toney for a big chunk of the rest of the FF season…if not all of it.

Which means you're stuck trying to figure out whether to hold on to a roster spot or not with him in redraft. If you play in a Fantasy league without at least one IR spot, would you please get that changed in 2022? I mean, every other player in the league is hurt every other week. Please join this century of FF play. I digress…

We’ll have to see how bad the Toney news is, but in redraft it’s going to be a tough hold (if you don’t have an IR)…especially as bye weeks hit and your week-to-week needs mount. If Toney is back in 3-4 weeks, we still don’t know what his pattern of use will be when (if) Golladay-Shepard and Barkley, and Toney are all together playing at the same time.

All I know is I’m going to try to hold on for as long as I can make sense of it. Toney is just showing to be too good…arguably the best WR weapon from the 2021 NFL Draft. I knew he was athletically ‘good’ but with off-field worries as a cloud over it – but I never saw him being this superior. He’s too good to give up on easily in redraft. And the fact that they came right out firing to him this game with Sterling Shepard back and despite Toney’s wobbly ankle…love it, love that they used him hot. There may be 2-3-5 names at WR who get better treatment by their offense than Toney the last two weeks. That’s saying something.

In Dynasty, I bypassed Toney or rookie drafted him as a flyer but then traded him for real players in the preseason…and, now, I’m on the prowl to reacquire. I’m not filled with regret about bypassing him or trading him away. We have to make those decisions all the time in FF/Dynasty. I’m fine bypassing, sitting back and observing, and then pouncing on the reality. You don’t have to be right first (although that seems to be the ultimate goal of every Fantasy GM, even above ‘winning’ games/titles), and I want to be ‘right’ first/early on every player, but in the end -- I just have to be right last. Most all of my Dynasty teams are filled with players I vetted/didn’t take initially because they had too much risk like in a bad situation or just I was willing to wait for them to have a ‘meh’ rookie start and then swoop in when the original buyer had their predictable remorse…and then I saw them play against the NFL bodies, and was captivated, and then went out and made moves to get them over time.

The problem with that theory is…when we’re all geared up to attack/go after a player in trade, the current owner is not always compliant. That’s why timing and patience is so important. Like I said last week: I wanted Toney BAD…desperately. LOVED what I saw. BUT, last week, after his huge week WAS NOT the time to make the best deal. If you waited a week, we thought this very scenario (the ankle injury issue) could happen to drive the price down off the white hot it was this time last week.

In Dynasty, we WANT in on Toney…but we know there is risk (his off-field concerns) and we know his current owner has rookie fever. We just sit and wait for this price to drop. If he goes on IR for three weeks (min.)…or is having season ending surgery – we let that news sink in and then go shopping.

Here’s the typical Fantasy GM’s trade logic, which needs to be corrected…

1) We WANT ___ player.

2) We determine we want him because we saw the sweet plays in the game or on highlights or on tape after. It’s like an advertisement for a must-have product…we see it, we crave it. Now, we REALLY want him…why, we saw it with our own two eyes!

3) I start writing love letters about it and we’re all whipped into an extra motivated frenzy.

4) We make the player an IDOL…a to-do list item that you can’t sleep until you scratch that to-do off your list. It becomes an obsession.

5) You go barreling in and texting the owner, after the player has his amazing output week, to see ‘What do you want for Toney?’…thus, clearly identifying/telegraphing the object of your desire and doubling the price on the spot. Like going onto a car lot, going right to one car and telling the closest salesperson…I want this car only, how much is it? Do you think you’re getting a deal that way? That owner will remember you did that telegraph for days, weeks, months of your Toney acquisition hopes. You’ll never correct the price from that full-speed approach.

Let’s all keep calm. We’re all excited about Toney. Let it breathe a little. If we don’t get him now, we’ll get him later…or there will be a new Toney to love every 2-3 weeks. The way to play the market on Toney is waiting…time/his ankle is on our side in Dynasty acquisitions for the future.

Once I see the extent of the injury – then I’m coming in hot. Stealth, but hot. He’s the kind of talent to consider over-trading for. But let’s see what’s up with the ankle…let’s take a breath…then see what kind of deals we may want to make.

Or…sitting it all out is fine. We could go barreling in here and then two months…six months off with this injury and who knows what Toney is going to do with a bunch of time off to work on his rap career? Just know…I’m going to be all over the Toney story/valuations all year and into next year. I won’t let us forget.

 -- I can’t imagine Kenny Golladay is rushing back now either, with NYG dead, but he should be back Week 8 (likely out Week 7). If Toney is gone for a while, then Sterling Shepard (10-76-0/14) is going to be a steady PPR WR1 possibility on catch volume, but looking at Golladay’s work with Daniel Jones…and the world turning so sour on KG with his time away (see how time away hurts value…that’s the model with Toney) and the KG numbers were kinda underwhelming for the season total – people are giving him away/giving up on him and NYG.

NOW, is the time to steal KG as a WR3 price -- but acquiring with the hopes of him as a cheap WR1.5 hopeful. His last healthy game with Dan Dimes and Barkley playing: (6-116-0/7) against a very good Saints secondary. I love what I see of Golladay-Jones. Golladay is a great buy low, right NOW…before he plays again. If he’s coming back this week, or next.

 -- If Daniel Jones (29-51 for 242 yards, 0 TDs/3 INTs, 3-4-0) ever gets back Golladay-Toney-Shepard at the same time – he has one of the best WR trios in the NFL at his disposal.

But the thing that really makes Dimes hum…if Saquon is back. Dimes is not so good that he will thrive as a known passer because Barkley is out. The Saquon fear changes defenses and opens up things for the passing game like Derrick Henry does for Ryan Tannehill.

Dan Jones is a week-to-week flyer FF QB based on matchup with his WR duo or trio on the field together. But he’s a possible QB1 with that trio PLUS Saquon, because Jones will run for numbers on top of being effective enough in the passing game.

Daniel Jones Weeks 1-4 (with Barkley): the #5-6 FF QB (depending upon 4 or 6pts per pass TD)

Dan Dimes Weeks 5-6 (with Barkley gone): Not in the top 30 for FF scoring per game.

This game was a Dimes disaster, but I am ignoring it…blotting it from his record. No Saquon…no Golladay…then no Toney. No chance.

 -- The Giants have had a revolving door of injured KEY players in and out all season, and no matter who is in or out and what opportunities then open up for others to step up – Evan Engram (3-24-0/5) never perks up for FF numbers in 2021.

You have to deem him dead for FF 2021…your only hope being that a tanking Giants team just sells him off before the trade deadline and that he lands in a refreshed, upgraded place.

Where to? Indy or Minnesota, as a guess.

 -- This entire game was a farce, so not many Rams things to note. But here’s three for the road…

1) Cooper Kupp (9-130-2/12) is the new Davante Adams…you know it’s coming, but no one (but ARI) can stop it.

2) Due to injuries in the secondary, rookie CB Robert Rochell (5 tackles, 1 INT) has found himself in the starting lineup. He tested big-time at his Pro Day (which was a bit suspicious, but…) – a 4.41 40-time, 1.51 10-yard, 43” vertical, 11’1” broad, 6.84 three-cone.

He’s likely to get picked on a lot as a rookie and has the athleticism to make plays/tackles/IDP numbers within that.  

3) Blocking TE Johnny Mundt got hurt/lost for the season here…which low-key led to rookie TE adoration-of-mine Jacob Harris (0-0-0/0) playing his first 6 offensive snaps of the season.

It’s not Jacob Harris FF-time yet, but note…if Harris is going to be forced to play snaps now, then he will see some targeting, it will make this offense more dangerous, and the Harris minor FF-money withdrawals comes out of the FF bank of Tyler Higbee (5-36-0/5), who will probably be in to block a little more as Harris runs a few pass routes…or Higbee just out of the game while Harris gets work late in blowouts – of which the LAR schedule says is coming. Harris’s presence is not going to crush Higbee, but it’s now a potential issue for him for FF production.

Snap Counts of Interest:

68 = Shephard

46 = Pettis

43 = C Johnson

32 = Ross

06 = Toney

54 = Booker

15 = Penny

00 = Brightwell

55 = Engram

34 = Rudolph

54 = DHendo

12 = Michel

58 = Woods

55 = Kupp

42 = Van Jefferson

16 = DJax

66 = Higbee

06 = J Harris

Ross Jacobs

FFM

19 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 6: Steelers 20, Seahawks 17 

Two dying teams played, and one of them won. End of story.

Seriously, this game was a real downer. 3-4 years ago the Seahawks vs the Steelers would have been quite the show. In 2021? Not so much.

The Steelers jumped out to a 17-0 lead and looked like they were going to blow the doors off the weaker Seahawks, but credit Seattle for hanging in there and eventually finding a way to tie the game. They still aren't going anywhere with or without Russell Wilson, but it was a nice effort anyways.

Pittsburgh has become so sad to watch. Big Ben is a shell of himself. He's got no arm strength left and can't even read defenses anymore it seems. He's just blinding flinging short passes to Diontae Johnson and Najee Harris. That's their offense. It's just the Steel City version of what's going on in Miami. Seriously, I might rather have Tua as my QB than Ben at this point. They are basically the same guy except Tua is slightly more careful with the ball.

Neither of these teams is going to have a winning record. The Steelers might come close with a decent defense, but I bet the schedule beats them down. The Seahawks don't even have an ok defense to lean on. Their defense is utter garbage. They are a lock for last in the NFC West.

Fantasy Notes

--If you didn't trade Chase Claypool (2-17-0/7) hot off of last week's fluke game you're kind of screwed. I wasn't able to pull the trigger either. It's so hard. Claypool is the most dangerous, majestic talent in the entire league. I get constant fantasies of “what if?” What if the Steelers put it together? What if Ben is just going through a funk and shakes off the rust? Juju is gone, so what if Claypool gets a ridiculous amount of targets to make up for the inefficiency?

You have to try and block all that out. There is no saving grace here, no way out for Claypool. He's stuck in a terrible offense with a QB that can't throw it downfield, and he's the 3rd option in said bad offense. There will likely be random good weeks to tease us from time to time, but the reality is that Claypool is a WR3 for the foreseeable future. I hate it, but we have to face the facts. If he lucks into another spike game try to flip him into something more solid. Otherwise, you're just stuck hoping his down weeks don't hurt you too badly.

--What's bad for Claypool is somewhat good for Diontae Johnson (9-71-0/13). He's Ben's go-to, his Davante/Kupp. Literally every other pass is a 5 yard route to DJ. It's not great work, but for ppr it's fine. The volume alone will sustain him.

--What's bad for Claypool and somewhat good for Diontae is fantastic for Najee Harris (24-81-0, 6-46-1/7). Harris is the fantasy winner of this travesty. RC and I heard Chris Collinsworth proclaim that Najee has top end speed and is one of the most talented young receivers in the league...and we both nearly had an aneurysm. Najee is neither of those things, and they don't matter since he can never get up to top speed anyways. Literally every run is for 1-2 yards. It's a joke.

And yet...it doesn't matter for fantasy. Doesn't matter how slow he is, or how bad the offensive line is, or that every defense knows exactly what is coming when the Steelers pull Diontae and Claypool off the field for Ebron...none of it matters. All that matters is that the Steelers LOVE them some Najee, and he is going to take 20 carries and get 5+ targets every single game. Najee is a top 4 or 5 RB lock for 2021 just on the volume.

For dynasty it's a bit murkier. Josh Jacobs got similar treatment his rookie year, with similar efficiency, and similar results, and look how that's turned out. Just because Najee succeeds this year does not mean he will automatically be ok for fantasy next year or in 2023. Maybe it works out, maybe it doesn't, but I'm not going to be on that train if/when it crashes. I don't like what I see from Harris, haven't all year. RC was the first to sound the alarm in the preseason, and nothing has changed. Unless Najee undergoes a David Montgomery-esque transformation in the off-season, I have no interest in him long term.

--Pat Freiermuth (7-58-0/7) is starting to come on a little too (yet another possible thing to drag Claypool down). His snaps and targets have been steadily growing each week, and it looks like he's earned Ben's trust. He'll be the 3rd short, safe pass going forward, the guy Ben can hit when DJ and Najee are covered. Freiermuth is likely available on waivers and should be a safe ppr guy going forward, not a top 5 TE or anything, but a safe harbor in the stormy seas that are fantasy TE's right now.

--As I warned last week after the Wilson injury, DK Metcalf (6-58-0/7) and Tyler Lockett (2-35-0/7) are screwed. Metcalf still has some vague hopes of remaining relevant as he has become the main target, but it's going to be up and down results most weeks. Lockett is unusable.

--The best thing left on this Seattle offense for fantasy is Alex Collins (20-101-1). I previously recommended him as a spot starter while Chris Carson was out due to how well he was playing and the team's obvious love for him, but even I didn't think it would go this well against a tough Steelers defense. Carson is dealing with a neck injury and will be out for some time, possibly the whole year, and as long as he is Collins should remain a RB1.5-2.

IDP Notes

--Bobby Wagner (14 tackles) now has 65 tackles on the year for an average of 10.8 per game.

--His teammate Jordyn Brooks (14 tackles) has 48 for an average of 8 per game. Both are among the league leaders.

--Alex Highsmith (7 tackles, 1.5 sacks) is trending up and is really starting to fill in well for the departed Bud Dupree. Just a really good complementary pass rusher across from TJ Watt.

*RC NOTE: I think Highsmith has more juice than a complement...he’s a talent, first and foremost, but then mix that with Watt garnering so much attention that Highsmith could ride the Watt wave to a 10+ sack season himself. I think a breakout for Highsmith sacks is on the verge…

Snap Counts of Interest

69 = Diontae Johnson

63 = Chase Claypool

52 = Ray-Ray McCloud

45 = Pat Freiermuth

34 = Eric Ebron

58 = Tyler Lockett

51 = Freddie Swain

49 = DK Metcalf

47 = Will Dissly

31 = Gerald Everett

39 = Alex Collins

22 = DeeJay Dallas