- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 8: Game Analysis: Falcons 25, Panthers 17
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
When Carolina took a 14-6 lead in the early 2nd-quarter, after Curtis Samuel’s second TD of the game…I thought this was in the bag for the Panthers. God love ‘em…the Falcons never fail to do the opposite of whatever I feel with them. When I endorse them, they lay eggs…when I think they’re going to get crushed – they win. Heck, how many times have any of us said/thought this year mid-game…well, there’s no way the Falcons can blow this lead in this game!!
If there is a team in the NFL I despise more, because I can never figure them out, than the Falcons…I don’t know who it is.
Whatever.
The Falcons on a solo night game are like fingers on a chalkboard for me. Hard to watch live…hard to watch back on tape. But they won here and kept their playoff hopes alive. If the Falcons win Week 9 hosting Denver and get to (3-6), there will be some enthusiasm for a week…and then they will get destroyed the rest of the way. Four games with the Saints (2) and Bucs (2) ahead…and KC, LV, LAC in-between for good measure. They may lose out starting Week 11…which means I just thought something bad about Atlanta, which means the opposite is true, which means Atlanta will win out, go (10-6) and go on to win the Super Bowl.
Or…they’ll finish (4-12) more likely.
One or the other. Oh, and Matt Schaub was the Super Bowl MVP in that upside scenario.
The Panthers blew a golden opportunity to stay in the playoff race. This loss was probably terminal…at KC, TB the next two weeks means they’ll be (3-7) heading down the stretch. A 6-win season is where we project them. Three close losses in a row the last three weeks has derailed this Cinderella story.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- I should start off by talking about the ‘WTF’ Todd Gurley v. Brian Hill situation, but I’ll save that ‘til next because I have more important matters to discuss…
You know what I’m about to discuss.
Can I get a witness – is Curtis Samuel (4-31-1/4, 3-23-1) not better than, and more important to the team than D.J. Moore (2-55-0/6)? As I have been trying to promote for two years now! Samuel is more talented and has now become more productive and critical to operations by midseason 2020.
Besides my self-congratulation, I have to also mock everyone who thought otherwise…
1) How was Curtis Samuel not being used as a running back, a real RB, SLASH real wide receiver before all this? Does he not look great running the ball? I don’t mean as a lead back, I just mean 3-7 carries and 3-7 targets a game – like get the ball in his hands!!
How stupid are…
Norv Turner
Ron Rivera
Mike Shula
Scott Turner
And how stupid was the current staff in weeks 1-3 of this season? But mostly the staff before them were the dummies. THE GUY WAS A TALENTED RUNNING BACK IN THE BIG TEN…how did it not dawn on anyone to use him as a Swiss Army Knife weapon…one of the most unique, dangerous weapons in all of football…as he lied generally dormant for 3+ years.
Did the football analysts crow about it all along? Did they want Curtis to cook? No…they rushed D.J. Moore to the high-end of fantasy draft rankings and talked about how bad a camp Curtis Samuel had and whether they should cut/trade Samuel.
I’ve sounded like a lunatic about Samuel for three years, questioning my own sanity some days…giving up on him for FF because I thought the NFL had ‘won again’. Beaten me down…broke my spirit.
I’m rarely wrong about football assessments/scouting – just temporarily ‘not right’ for the moment. I might not know what weeks to play Samuel or Diontae Johnson or maybe I favor WRs who always get hurt on their first touch of games in 2020 – but I know scouting, talent, and I put in the work to keep watching all games to stay in tune – don’t question my ability to see talent. Question the NFL’s ability to see it.
Next stop on this ride…we’re about to cross over into a debate on Curtis Samuel as being more important/better than Robby Anderson (5-48-0/8). Robby has scored 1 TD this season…Week 1. Samuel has 3 TDs in his last two games.
Touches the last three weeks (rushes + catches combined):
23 = C Samuel
15 = Robby A
11 = D.J. Moore
It’s game-back-on with CSam for fantasy!!
-- So, Todd Gurley (18-46-1) started…was terrible…and then all the sudden Brian Hill (11-55-0, 2-9-0/3) came into the game with a spark and it seemed like a change at the top of the depth chart was under way.
But…this is the NFL. They are allergic to success. They are slaves to ‘names’ and the ‘draft pick number’ and ‘what we had planned’, so Hill disappeared down the stretch and Gurley ended up taking 18 mostly useless carries (2.55 yards per carry) but did fall into the end zone.
Why does Gurley keep sucking, but scoring TDs? Because I don’t own him in fantasy. I can’t get David Johnson into the end zone if I took a Uzi and deployed it on the defense, at the snap, on a goal line handoff to DJ by the Texans (he’d trip over a fatally wounded Defensive Tackle at the goal line and fall backwards, slipping on blood and guts…I imagine) but Gurley can’t not score a TD every week.
If the Falcons don’t dump Gurley before the NFL deadline, the NFL is another level stupider than previously thought. Gurley is averaging 3.8 yards per carry, for the 2nd-season in a row, and is no impact in the passing game – but somehow has 8 TDs in half a 2020 season. Leonard Fournette has 5 TDs in the past two years combined.
Brian Hill has FF value if the Falcons pull the trigger on rebuilding, but they’re so stupid – they think they’re in the playoff hunt now.
-- Calvin Ridley (3-42-0/4) may miss a little time. Christian Blake (2-44-0/2) played the snaps in Ridley’s place.
Is Blake an interesting get while Ridley is out? https://youtu.be/C6YfJZ9hxLQ
I’ll look at something else besides Blake for Week 9.
…which means, Blake has 19 catches for 448 yards next week.
-- Hayden Hurst (5-54-0/7) becomes more of a ‘winner’ with Ridley down. Hurst has 50+ yards in a game in four of his last 5 games. He’s a real midrange TE1.
-- Matt Ryan (21-30 for 281 yards, 0 TDs/1 INT) has a 4 TD/0 INT game in Raheem Morris’s first game as ATL head coach. He’s had 1 TD/1 INT total in 2 games since. Ignoring the 4 TD/0 INT game of Week 6 vs. the disaster that is the Vikings pass defense, Ryan has 2 TDs/3 INTs total since Week 3…5 games…two TD passes…he’s been more joke than FF-helpful.
-- Teddy Bridgewater (15-23 for 176 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 5-30-0) missed a critical drive with a hit to the head and lost out on key snaps for more FF output. It started raining too, putting more downward pressure on his FF tally. A great matchup…and it was unfulfilled.
-- How great has rookie Jeremy Chinn (10 tackles, 1 PD, 1-28-0) been this season? He’s likely to be in the top 12 among DBs in PPG in IDP after this week…bolstered by his 10-tackle game here PLUS a fake punt for a 28-yard jaunt.
Hmmm…now, who was it who said the Arizona Cardinals were idiots for not taking an Offensive Lineman in the top 10 and then just taking the similar/better Isaiah Simmons prospect in Jeremy Chinn in the 2nd-round? I can’t remember…
Oh, wait…Simmons played 5 whole snaps in an OT game last week, so he’s special. He can’t even get on the field for the injury-decimated Cardinals, as a ‘holy’ top 10 draft pick. Talk about a bust/wasted draft pick. Again, never question the NFL…they know more than us common fans. And, yet, the analysts still talk about Simmons and don’t even know Chinn exists or know he’s doing what he is doing – a Defensive Rookie of the Year potential candidate.
Snap Counts of Interest:
48 = DJ Moore
45 = Robby A
41 = C Samuel
58 = Julio
39 = Gage
38 = Blake
23 = Ridley
09 = Zaccheaus
36 = Gurley
25 = Br Hill
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 7: Game Analysis: Chiefs 43, Broncos 16
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
The last two times these teams have met, it’s been cold and snowy…and both times the Chiefs handed the Broncos, specifically Drew Lock, their asses. It’s not worth writing a lot of words about…the Chiefs killed Denver in every phase…running, passing, defense, special teams, etc. Denver isn’t in KC’s class and won’t be close until they replace Drew Lock…but that’s easier said than done.
KC is now (6-1) and heading towards an epic showdown Week 12 at Tampa Bay. If the NFL doesn’t move that game to Sunday Night or Monday Night…what are we even doing? With no fans in many places, it’s easy to change the schedule.
Denver is now (2-4) and likely headed to 4-5 wins at best. A good team that has no chance to shine due to its QB. They did it to themselves.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Hard to assess KC’s proper feelings on their true plans for Clyde Edwards-Helaire (8-46-1, 1-17-0/4) and Le’Veon Bell (6-39-0) based off this game. This one was over before it started, so why reveal your hand? By the end, Dwayne Washington was getting work in a blowout.
My notes/thoughts on this RB duo this day…
1) None of us knows the true plan ahead…we are blindly speculating.
2) All the words and actions seem to be CEH as the lead but Le’Veon playing near 50-50, and either could get hot and be the guy that day.
3) Most people think Le’Veon is going to take this over…the same way people believe/d Leonard Fournette will/would dispatch Ronald Jones. The fallacy of that, potentially, is that we think Le’Veon is the Le’Veon of days gone by…he was just locked away by the mean old NY Jets and now finally free.
We all thought that with LeSean McCoy, David Johnson, Leonard Fournette upon their change of teams.
What if the simple truth is – Le’Veon is not THAT Le’Veon anymore and will just be a nice piece to have to go with CEH, but not better than CEH? Are you sure 2020 Le’Veon is better than 2020 CEH? 2013-2015 Le’Veon might have been, but does that guy exist anymore?
4) When I watched Bell’s touches here, I didn’t see any amazing spark or pop differently than CEH. Bell was running normal, a bit tentative…but that was probably the ground conditions.
I think this is too early and/or complicated to call/project.
If the Jets game gets out of hand Week 8 (and they both sit much of the 2nd-half), and they split Week 9, and there’s a BYE Week 10, and they are at top run defense Tampa Week 12…when do you use Le’Veon with confidence between Weeks 8-12? Week 11 at Las Vegas…then you have to assume off of the BYE Le’Veon becomes ‘the man’? More likely, they’ll still be splitting the backfield by then.
If you have to wait past Week 12 to even dream that Le’Veon will take over and be FF ‘the man’, putting CEH behind him…that’s a long wait and a lot of worry, like trying to figure out when to start Leonard Fournette week to week right now.
-- Patrick Mahomes (15-23 for 200 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) has had two weaker FF games back-to-back, due to weather. FF players tend to believe last week is the undisputed future of things that will happen, and two weeks in a row is a super-strong trend of what will happen in the universe...which means Mahomes might be able to be discussed in a deal right now, if you have the firepower to pull it off.
Week 6 in the rain with BUF and then Week 7 at the first super-cold and snow game of 2020…it’s artificially keeping Mahomes’ FF scoring down.
Weeks 11-15 will be the best late season weather opportunity he has ever had in his short career.
Week 11 at LV/dome, Week 12 at TB, Week 13 in KC v. DEN, Week 14 at MIA, Week 15 at NO/dome.
Two Florida and two dome road trips…not bad.
Same goes for Tyreek Hill (6-55-1/10), who has had muted FF in the cold/snow/rain but could be getting ready to race back as a top FF WR like usual.
-- Drew Lock’s (24-40 for 254 yards, 0 TDs/2 INTs) problem is beyond the weather.
3 TDs/5 INTs in his last 6 starts back to 2019. He’s averaging 0.5 TD passes per game for most of his NFL career. I think this is Lock’s final week as the Broncos starter if he lays another egg.
Brett Rypien isn’t much of an upgrade…
Tim Patrick (3-44-0/4) is being held hostage in all of this QB mess. He is playing good ball, but between the QBs and now a concussion…he’s just a flyer still. You’d like to sit on him for -- at ATL, at LV Weeks 9-10…bad pass Ds in a dome climate. If he’s cleared…and who knows who his QB will be.
-- If Drew Lock goes, that’s the end of the Albert Okwuegbunam (7-60-0/7) excitement. He is getting bolstered by Drew Lock using him when he’s on the field. He only played 40% of the snaps (Fant 70%), but Albert O. led the team with 7 targets (tied with Fant).
When Lock goes, Albert O. is going back down a hole. But if Lock stays…he’s a TE2 with an upside option.
-- Phillip Lindsay (9-79-0) started this game, despite Melvin Gordon (17-68-1, 2-12-0/4) returning to action after a week out. Of course, then Lindsay took a hit, got a concussion and helped re-launch Gordon.
We can never be satisfied with Lindsay. The ‘too small’ thing is catching up to him. Hard to be a 180+ pound lead back…and Lindsay is reinforcing the fears with constant injury it seems.
I don’t know who will be the Broncos RB that matters in 2021. That RB is likely not on the roster.
Lindsay will be a great passing game back for the Patriots down the road…
-- What happened to everyone whining about the Chiefs-DST giving up too much/scoring FF-low a few weeks ago vs. Las Vegas? A monster FF-day here, and the Jets and Panthers both at KC are coming up.
Just prepare for what you’re going to do Week 10 on with this DST.
Week 10 = BYE (Miami-DST vs. LAC on the schedule change ruins this schedule pairing perfection)
Week 11 = at Las Vegas…bad matchup or revenge? (Miami-DST at DEN)
Week 12 = at TB…makes life tough for Brady or he Air Raids them? (Miami-DST at NYJ)
Weeks 13-14 look nice with DEN and at MIA.
Snap Counts of Interest:
46 = Gordon
18 = Freeman
14 = Lindsay
27 = CEH
17 = Le’Veon
10 = D’Andre Washington
01 = Darr Williams
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 7: Game Analysis: Packers 35, Texans 20
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
This game was over pretty much when it started. It was 21-0 at the half, and 28-7 going into the 4th-quarter. Houston scored a late garbage TD to make a bit closer than it was. Green Bay was cruising, toying with Houston when they wanted to.
Green Bay is now (5-1), as they beat another patsy team. Green Bay’s regular season schedule has been awesome for two seasons now. The schedule is set up for Green Bay to get to 12-13 wins…and home field advantage for them would be huge with the weather.
Houston mails in another loss. They’re now (1-6) and the schedule might have them win a few games ahead, but it’s probably too far gone to get back into a playoff race. They could win their next 3-4 in-a-row and make things interesting – at JAX, at CLE, NE, at DET. It’s a favorable stretch but likely Houston is not strong enough to take advantage and will probably sell off players next week anyway. 6-7 wins is possible for the Texans with a little luck.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Whaddya know? Aaron Jones out…and Jamaal Williams (19-77-1, 4-37-0/5) has a Jones-like game/output. All the #1 RBs of note going into their free agent/final season got big new deals…but not Aaron Jones. I don’t think he’ll be back with the Packers, for fiscal reasons on top of most RBs could come in and do what Jones does.
A.J. Dillon (5-11-0) being drafted was probably part of that not seeing Jones as worth the price in the future idea. AJD got some extra work here with Jones out, but he didn’t do much with it. He looks very erratic, lost, rookie-like still. Nothing impressive on tape yet at the NFL level. When the Packers lead got larger and larger…Jamaal stayed in. Expect heavy Jamaal this week if/with Jones out.
-- I wanted to see how close to normal Robert Tonyan (2-32-0/2) was moving around like after spraining his ankle last week and playing through it but missing multiple practices for rehab leading up to Week 7’s game.
Two things…
1) Tonyan looked pretty normal. Had a nice diving catch in the game. I didn’t see any hobbling, slowing.
2) The Pack got up big and throttled back his snaps a little bit, smartly. No reason to have him push it for no reason.
This week we’ll see if Tonyan is more 100%/practicing and has a better FF game.
-- David Johnson (14-42-0, 4-42-1/4) saw a season high 4 targets!!!! How smart!!! If you think Houston figured out the most obvious thing in the world (DJ is a receiving gem of gems at RB in the NFL), then you would be wrong. His passes came mostly in the big deficit and after Deshaun Watson was searching elsewhere downfield but was flushed quickly and settled or desperately went to an/any open man (DJ).
When Watson drops back to pass, and some QBs are like this, he has no predisposition or real awareness of the RB as a slick check down option – whereas like Drew Brees or Philip Rivers are just setting you up looking downfield and then they quick dump it…they’re aware of it at all times as the safest throw, and with D.J. it would be a 225+ pound block of granite out in space…but who wants that? We need more up the middle runs with DJ! I don’t believe Houston figured out anything on DJ in the passing game here…just random bump in targeting because of the deficit.
Trade him as you need to…he’s just another 12-16 carries for low ypc (because his O-Line stinks) and 1-2 catches per game, and you hope he scores a TD. He will score 10 TDs this season, and thus be a solid RB2, near RB1 in raw tally of FF points.
-- Allen Lazard (DNP) is back practicing this week and might be active for Week 8, but I’d guess more Week 9 for his activation from core muscle surgery.
Thinking about getting him ahead of time? A nice #2 TD producer across from Davante Adams ahead? Makes sense.
However, what worries me is the Packers are looking for WRs to add before the trade deadline…specifically Will Fuller (3-35-1/6), who Jaire Alexander shutdown mostly in this game. Fuller would just muddy this whole thing up for Lazard, who will have a tough enough time getting good touches with just he and Adams (since Adams gets 117 targets a game with Rodgers).
The Packers seem bent on adding a WR, which is smart…but it doesn’t help the Lazard story for 2020 ROS.
-- I could see the Texans trading Brandin Cooks (7-60-0/9) and/or Randall Cobb (8-95-0/10) as well.
Cobb back to Green Bay seems to make a ton of sense, no?
Cobb has 5.7 catches for 53.0 yards, and 0.33 TDs per game his last 3 games. As the Texans get down/can’t stop anyone, so their passing game numbers are climbing in garbage/hurry up…good for Watson, good for Cobb, and good for Cooks, who has been FF-amazing the past 3 games with 8.0 rec., 96.3 yards, 0.67 TDs per game.
Since Week 5, Cooks is the #7 WR in PPR PPG.
-- GB rookie UDFA LB Krys Barnes (8 tackles, 1.0 sacks) has had a surreal run of tackles per snap played this season.
168 snaps played, 43 total tackles…a tackle every 3.91 snaps played. And it’s not just one big game/outlier driving the numbers.
A typical amount of snaps for a player to play the entire game is around 60-65 or so. Barnes’s season pace would project 15 +/- tackles in a 60-snap effort game.
Barnes played 40% of the snaps here…fighting a shoulder injury, leaving the game early. He was on pace for over 18 total tackles through fuzzy math.
Barnes has started the last 4 games, but only played close to a full game once (Week 6, 10 tackles). He was a rotational LB at first, then a Week 6 real starter, but got hurt late and left and is fighting that injury still.
I keep mentioning him because his internals/metrics for tackles is amazing, but he hasn’t had a chance to get consistency yet. If he does, this could be a ‘wow’ for IDP.
-- The Green Bay Packers-DST is starting to get my attention for FF…in a look/search through the bottom tier/unclaimed DSTs in many leagues.
I’m looking at that Week 10-15 stretch that keeps getting more favorable as we go…
Week 10 = v. JAX…with Minshew dying, along with the team.
Week 11 = at IND, Rivers highly turnover prone
Week 12 = v. Foles, the bad Bears running game
Week 13 = v. Philly’s corrupted O-Line.
Week 14 = at DET is solid
Week 15 = v. CAR…not so bad, and in the cold likely.
Six games, four in colder weather potentially (to their favor)
Week’s 8-9 with MIN minus Cook, maybe, and at SF without Mostert and Deebo, maybe – GB might not be so bad now right through it? In a deep sleeper, semi-desperate way?
Snap Counts of Interest:
54 = Dav Johnson
20 = Duke J
55 = Jamaal W
14 = AJ Dillon
31 = Tonyan
31 = M Lewis
20 = Sternberger
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 7: Game Analysis: Browns 37, Bengals 34
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
Several weeks ago, the Browns got a two-score lead on the Bengals in a TNF game, but the scrappy Bengals would cut it to a one score lead soon after, and then the Brownies would push back up by two scores, and back and forth it went between a 1-2 score lead for Cleveland with the Bengals scoring late to cut the game/the win to one score for the Browns. The Browns were the better team and won the game. Soon after that they beat the GREAT Dallas Cowboys and that then convinced football society that the Browns were for real.
Several weeks later, this game, the Browns needed a last second miracle throw and catch to defeat the Bengals missing a few players to injury, including their top corner, in Week 7. The Browns are not ‘getting better’.
The Browns aren’t even that good -- they just got a bunch of love for beating what was then thought to be a GREAT Dallas Cowboys team. The Browns are (5-2) and are a bigger fraud than the (5-2) Chicago Bears. We see Cleveland winding up at 7-8 wins, but 9 wins is possible…they’re absolutely, unquestionably a better team without Odell Beckham Jr. -- losing OBJ right here, may have saved their season from collapse. It might save, or slow, Baker Mayfield’s career decline perception among the masses. Addition by subtraction.
The Bengals are horrible…except they have Joe Burrow, who is great…a modern-day/better Joe Montana. Burrow breathes life into this team and franchise. The Bengals will be lucky to win 3 games this season. They need to lose out, fire Zac Taylor, hire Carolina O-C Joe Brady (Burrow’s QB coach at LSU) and try to make themselves a real franchise again.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- So, OBJ is gone…good. Now what? Where does Baker Mayfield go for targeting among non-RBs?
I think my pecking order projection is…
1) Jarvis Landry (5-48-0/6) -- #1 in the short term. The longest on-field relationship is with Landry. I don’t believe Landry goes to some new level, just that he’ll be stable/solid/WR2-like.
2) Austin Hooper (DNP) – When he returns. Their connection was growing before the freak medical issue/surgery and he’ll be back Week 9-10 most likely.
*Harrison Bryant (4-56-2/5) – Until Hooper returns, it’s Bryant #2…as we saw this game. Not like a new Travis Kelce or anything, just a reliable guy who Baker can count on…and their connection was showing back in Weeks 1-2. But when Hooper is back, Hooper will lead and a lot of ’12 personnel’ will allow Bryant to play 30-40% of the snaps and be a mediocre TE2 and #4-5 on this listing.
3) Rashard Higgins (6-110-0/6) – is the Travis Fulgham for Baker Mayfield. Not flashy. Not overly athletic, but super-reliable and makes plays. Baker and Higgins have been close friends for years, but we never ever see it on the field for any sustained time. In the 2nd-half of this game…we saw some ‘it’ between them. Potential that Higgins becomes the #1, but I’d bet Landry-Hooper ahead of him until I see a real sustained change.
4) Donovan People-Jones (3-56-1/3) – a solid pro, but not ready for a primetime role. He’ll get some targets, but I don’t think sustainable FF action is headed his way yet. He’s not a superstar in waiting but more of a real solid guy to have in the group – reliable, good blocker, etc. He tries, where OBJ is out there for himself/not to get hit.
-- The Bengals current pecking order for Joe Burrow…
1-2) Wherever the mismatch is with Tyler Boyd (11-101-1/13) or Tee Higgins (5-71-1/5). Burrow likes, connects well with both as it is presented to him.
3) A.J. Green (7-82-0/13) has suddenly woken up. 7.5 catches for 89.0 yards, and 0.0 TDs per game the past two weeks. Burrow will use you if you respond, and AJG is not looking as horrible as he did Weeks 1-5, but is still not the AJG of old…and Burrow’s third look.
4) Everything else randomly.
-- Gio Bernard (13-37-0, 5-59-1/5) was headed for an FF dud, but got a TD catch to payoff for FF OK. This a bad O-Line to run behind, so it will be a grind for Gio to make FF-hay out of it Week 9. Joe Mixon is most likely out again, so another week of Gio before a bye gives Mixon an extra two weeks of rest.
-- Don’t look now but Baker Mayfield (22-28 for 297 yards, 5 TDs/1 INT) is starting to turn his career around. If you ignore the Steelers game abomination from the Browns, Baker is (5-1) otherwise this season with 14 TDs/5 INTs. 2 or more TDs passing in every game since Week 2, except the Steelers game (1).
The schedule ahead is not bad either…LV-BYE-HOU-PHI-JAC-TEN the next five weeks is favorable.
-- Don’t look now, but Joe Burrow (35-47 for 406 yards, 3 TDs/1 INT, 6-34-1) is already better than Baker Mayfield…is already a strong QB1 in fantasy.
If the matchup is favorable at all, Burrow is going to shine for FF. He’s struggled against top defenses…LAC-PIT-IND so far. He hasn’t struggled talent-wise, he just has no time to throw/gets hit all the time.
Burrow is sitting #14 in PPG in 4pts pass TD leagues, and #13 in 6pts pass TD leagues. He’s thrown for 300+ yards in a game in four of his last 5 games. He’s also the most sacked QB in the NFL.
-- Drew Sample (5-52-0/6) got back in the offensive flow…after disappearing for weeks. I didn’t see any great/special/encouraging – just he was there, and Burrow made use, as he does.
Snap Counts of Interest:
57 = Gio
19 = Perine
47 = Hunt
02 = D’Ernest
44 = Higgins
40 = Landry
36 = DPJ
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 7: Game Analysis: Football Team 25, Cowboys 3
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
I almost forget that Washington went right down the field for a TD first series, the short TD that was called back with a penalty, moments later, on 4th & goal from the 1-yard line Dallas stuffed the play. Washington rammed it down their gullet from the opening drive…Dallas is lucky this score wasn’t worse than it ended up for them.
Whatever the score coulda/shoulda been, it was bad…bad…bad things for Dallas. If I claimed the Dallas Cowboys were the single worst team in the NFL this very second, worse than the Jets – you could not really fight back on it too hard. This Dallas situation has gone from bad to worse to now ridiculous. I’m betting against Dallas like I did the Jets the first several weeks of the season. It’s that bad. This was one of the worst games an NFL team has played this year…right up there with most every Dallas game quarters 1-3 this season and whatever the Patriots did Week 7.
Everyone has theories and consternation but this is Jerry Jones’s fault for hiring Mike McCarthy and Jerry is never going to change so the problem isn’t going to get fixed, it just looks better with Dak Prescott as the window dressing. There is no fixing this Dallas issue of 2020. Dallas will either lose out or maybe pick up a win somewhere along the way. It’s really bad right now…and do you think they’ll be coached up to playing better?
Washington has a chance to win the NFC East. The best defense in the division…which means they have a chance. I still bet on Philly to take it, but WFT has a chance. We project the FTs with 5-6 wins. Six wins could win the division maybe.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Who is Ben DiNucci (2-3 for 39 yards, 0 TDs/0 INTs)? Is there hope with him?
No.
Not at all.
You’re wasting time even asking.
An undersized, stare down the first-read thrower with no real arm strength/arm whip on his throws. He’s the classic butt-kissing, yes sir/no sir, run the plays called head coach’s wet dream of a career 3rd-stringer that the O-C loves…studious, like a coach in the QB room. Gets to work early, stays late. Yada, Yada.
There’s just one problem with all the great employee attributes – he sucks as an NFL prospect.
Week 7 = Start the Eagles defense. Sell the Dallas offense.
Now, before you do all that…
I bet DiNucci is so bad that I bet Garrett Gilbert (recently grabbed off the Browns practice squad) is in finishing this game, and that Gilbert provides a minor spark and people start wondering if Dallas should just go with Gilbert for the ROS.
SuperFlex players – consider grabbing and sitting on Gilbert in deeper roster leagues. He may play from Week 9 on with all the Dallas weapons, Gilbert looked decent in the 2018-2019 preseason, had a decent run in the AAF in 2019. He’s not bad. He is exponentially better than DiNucci…and better than 2020 Andy Dalton. Dallas might even cut or trade Andy Dalton ahead of the trade deadline because ‘why keep him’?
I’m not saying Gilbert is going to be special or anything…just better than DiNucci or Dalton. He might provide a little spark to the team too.
-- The Dallas WRs in this game…
Amari Cooper (7-80-0/7)
CeeDee Lamb (0-0-0/5)
Michael Gallup (0-0-0/2)
I told you last week was the best hope to sell CeeDee hot. Now, you’re stuck.
Gallup is droppable in most redrafts. Lamb might be soon. Amari is a solid WR2 ROS.
If Dalton can get back ahead, it helps all of them to some degree…a lot of junk time coming. Gilbert might have a moment too.
-- The FT’s got up and just ran it out, which is smart…30 combined carries for Gibson-Barber. Thus, J.D. McKissic’s (5-35-0, 2-16-0/2) pass catching talents were not needed. He’s still a viable RB3 hope week-to-week in PPR.
-- McKissic might be a better PPR RB ahead than Ezekiel Elliott (12-45-0, 1-6-0/2)! My, how the mighty have fallen.
You almost just have to ride it out in FF with Zeke…he’s in a David Johnson-like situation – a lot of touches, bad O-Line, hope he gets in the end zone somehow. Since Week 4, Elliott is the #15 PPG RB in PPR…and falling. He’s an RB2 ahead. If you can trade him like an RB1…go for it. He’s not a zero…just not ‘Zeke’ anymore.
If Tony Pollard (8-16-0, 1-6-0/1) was shoved into the starting lineup…he’d have the same problems with the O-Line, QB play, head coach, etc.
-- Logan Thomas (4-50-1/4) is a viable TE for FF on matchups, and this was a good one…and he scored. End of story.
-- Because the Dallas offense is collapsing…don’t get stuck riding Greg Zuerlein (1/1 FG) out of habit. There has to be better options.
-- Cole Holcomb (5 tackles, 1 sack, 1 TFL, 1 PD) may have turned his career arc around with his performance here. He started showing the total linebacker menace he could be with his high-end speed and tackle-ability in this game.
I want to wait to see his snaps, if he starts this week before getting anymore excited. I’ve been burned here before with false starts.
-- I‘m holding the WSH-DST through their Week 8 bye in several cases. They are a sacking machine of a unit but get this schedule ahead the next 4 weeks. Noted in terms of most sacks allowed by the team’s offense…
Week 9 = NYG #8
Week 10 = DET #15
Week 11 = CIN #1
Week 12 = DAL #7
I’ll take that stretch. Then I leave them in Weeks 13-15 with at PIT, at SF, SEA.
Snap Counts of Interest:
34 = McKissic
33 = Gibson
23 = Barber
37 = Zeke
19 = Pollard
39 = Holcomb (70%)
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 7: Game Analysis: Cardinals 37, Seahawks 34 OT
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
It felt like Seattle was going to run away with this game early. Right down the field unfettered for a quick TD, 7-0 Seattle lead. It wasn’t long before it was 20-7 Seattle. A bunch of scoring late 2nd-quarter, but Seattle left the field at the half with a 27-17 lead and you could feel they were the better team.
Then Arizona flipped the script…
Not immediately, they didn’t. It was 34-24 Seattle with 6+ minutes left, and I thought it was all but over watching live. Arizona was able to tie the ball game and send it to OT where I didn’t remember, until the re-watch, that this game appeared headed for a tie at the end of OT, but when Arizona picked off that errant Russell Wilson pass at the end – it was with less than a minute left and then went down in range for the game-winning field goal. I forgot the time was down that far when Arizona got the key turnover.
Nearly 1,100 yards of combined offense, 5 combined turnovers, 98 combined passes, 200 yards rushing for Seattle (and ‘only’ 159 for Arizona) – and Arizona wins and pulls into the NFC West title conversation.
I’m left thinking…is Arizona good…or is Seattle bad…or both good…or both bad? My instincts tell me they are roughly the same team…all offense, based around the QB/passing, and no defense/no pass rush. They will play in shootouts unless they face a team with pass rush pressure…but they can hang in games where they are under pressure because their QBs make plays.
Credit ARI D-C Vance Joseph, he did get a pass rush going here…9 QB hits, 3 picks of Wilson.
Seattle has the worst pass defense in the NFL because they have no pass rush – in five quarters of play they hit Kyler Murray ZERO times. I almost never see games with ZERO QB hits. It just happened here…and thus Kyler with a monster effort.
All the lopsided pressure data…and Arizona barely won…that’s what scares me on getting excited about their offense/team when tougher defenses face them, but it could just be me worrying to worry. Typical FF GM.
Arizona is now (5-2), goes on a bye, and then is about to get tested by their schedule. They start to play more physical teams and playoff hopefuls and head to unfriendly weather in the weeks to come. This was a key/pivotal win…10 wins and a possible NFC West title are in range for Arizona now, but so are 8 wins and missing the playoffs. I think the schedule circumstances have flipped in their favor ahead. They are very likely getting to 9-10 wins (Chris Bilello was right again!). Ugly as it might be sometimes, they are winning and that’s all that matters.
Seattle is a better version of Arizona, they just happened to lose this game…that they could’ve won many times over. The Seahawks have a similar schedule ahead – not as easy, a few more physical teams, weather comes into play with NFC East matchups to play Week 12 on. Seattle is good for 10-11 wins, and I’d give them the nod for the NFC West over Arizona…Weeks 12-15 facing PHI-NYG-NYJ-WSH is a gift from the schedule gods.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The most impressive thing I saw in this game, besides D.K. Metcalf’s tackling ability, was Chase Edmonds (5-58-0, 7-87-0/7).
I don’t mean that in the typical way we all say, like…’Edmonds is better than Drake, he should take over…stupid Kingsbury!’ Edmonds is a ‘C’ grade status in the universe because he’s a clear backup that many smarties say should be starting…but they only say that because Kenyan Drake (14-34-0, 1-7-0/2) has been so disappointing.
This is a key concept to keep in mind for all that I’m about to write – the experts and fans who yammer about wanting Edmonds to start, it’s not with true Edmonds-based passion, it’s a Drake punishment statement. It’s a unique way to say, “Drake sucks.” To punish Drake for being a top 18 FF draft pick and being a dud most weeks. At people’s core, they’re not thinking Chase Edmonds is a big name, super talent. He’s not more of a mindset like when JaMycal Hasty or Justin Jackson or Lamical Perine or Alexander Mattison falls into a spot where if they get touches by injury above them to the starter then they might be OK.
What I’m seeing…Edmonds may be the best ‘no name’ RB you can acquire for the future and is useful for the now. Edmonds is a starting NFL talent, with all the tools/a similar or better LeSean McCoy (if prime LeSean entered the NFL in 2020…which wouldn’t be as differencemaking because so much talent in the NFL now). Edmonds has added 5+ pounds of muscle. He is very shifty/agile. He’s a tough enough interior runner. He’s an excellent receiver.
Let me talk about his receiving ability…
In a way, he’s become a de facto 2nd-best receiver on the team. Smooth catcher of the ball, but then excellent in movement after the catch – and he’s not just catching dump passes and screens, he more catching passes downfield as much as short.
The past four games for Edmonds:
Week 4 = 5 catches, 6 targets, 24 yds rec, 1 TD
Week 5 = 5 catches, 6 targets, 56 yards rec. (a rushing TD)
Week 6 = 1 rec., 2 targets, 6 yards
Week 7 = 7 rec., 7 targets, 87 yards
In that same span, Drake has 2 catches on 5 targets for 9 yards.
D.J. Chark hasn’t been as productive receiving as Edmonds the past 4 weeks. Nor Mike Williams. Just two names that popped into my head. I could point out more, you get the point.
Edmonds works as a backup with Drake for the right now in PPR. Obviously, he is going to be really good with Drake out of the picture Week 9 (if).
The player this week, in Dynasty/keeper, I’d focus on making a big deal to acquire is Chase Edmonds. He works for FF as Drake’s backup but if he goes off in Week 9-10, the Drake v. Edmonds debate will really heat up. I want to try to get in ahead of Edmonds playing and making it so obvious. But it’s really a bet on 2021 (with 2020 benefits too)…
Kenyan Drake is a free agent after the season. Drake has shown no reason for any NFL team to make plans or spend big around him. Arizona already paid him $8M for this season…about $7M too much. A one-year option they got suckered into. Chase Edmonds’ emergence allows them not to get suckered again. As soon as the season is ‘2021’, Edmonds will be the main RB on the roster.
Arizona could draft an RB, could sign an RB…they could even bring back Drake, but why? When they have Edmonds in the system for two years, proven at a much lower cost? I mean, they will add guys around any starting RB, but you see the work Drake gets now…that should be Edmonds’ work load for 2021 + all the passing game that Drake is a zero in right now.
Edmonds is going to start in Week 9 and probably Week 10 (and maybe 11), and that’s a speed bump in trade right now…but Edmonds isn’t playing this week (bye), so if you have an RB of the moment…Scott, Gio, Jamaal that you don’t really need this week – it might be the perfect flip of RBs who seem like ‘just for a week’ guys. But our plans are more devious than ‘spot start’ RB. We’re taking the long view, that might end up a short view after Week 9…but worst case a useful RB2-3 in PPR the ROS.
You shouldn’t have to pay a lot for this. He’s not a name people covet, but they do respect. He’s an RB2.5…that I’m willing to pay RB2 money for…or more, if I need to…if I have the hype names of the moment to throw at it to con the current owner.
In redraft, like I said…Scott, Gio, Jamaal, Hasty are guys to consider a similar ‘1-2 week only’ flip for. Add trinkets if the person you’re dealing with is being obstinate.
In Dynasty, whatever you could get away with to make this investment. The current owner may profess love, but it is only because of the moment…the Week 9-10 start, but Drake looms and they know (they think) it’s a limited engagement. I’d pay the price here but don’t enter the room naked to make your lust obvious…worm your way around to it. The more you show you’re interested in a name specifically, the more puckered up the current owner gets.
-- The Kyler Murray (34-48 for 360 yards, 3 TDs/1 INT, 14-67-1) Report…and it is good.
Kyler is ringing up fantasy points like mad, which I love. I also have to keep in mind…everyone is bombing Seattle. Kyler has been fortunate to face Detroit-Carolina-NYJ-Dallas-Seattle the past five weeks. In terms of sack% (sacks per pass attempt), here’s how those five teams rank in the NFL in sack-ability: #26, #32, #24, #20, #29.
When Kyler has time, he’s deadly…most top QBs are…but especially Kyler. That’s why I went ballistic that the Cardinals drafted Isaiah Simmons top 10, instead of a top O-Lineman…which was the single stupidest pick in the 1st-round (and Simmons can’t even get on the field because he doesn’t know what he’s doing…while all kinds of rookies are playing 100% of the snaps).
Here’s the next seven games of sack% defenses the Cards face by NFL rank: #8 (MIA), #11 (BUF), #29 (SEA, now with Dunlap), #22 (NE), #6 (LAR), #10 (NYG), #3 (PHI). Things are about to get rougher.
I’m not saying Kyler shrivels up and dies…maybe, he goes through it and is the league MVP/best player in all of FF 2020 (God, I hope so). I’m just keeping focus on the fact that there’s been some schedule advantage here.
I’m not looking to trade Kyler in Dynasty, but I’m not against it. More NOT looking to now because the more Arizona wins, the more I know Kliff is staying, and this Kyler gets what he wants. Every Arizona win this year…another brick in a firm foundation for Kyler’s near future. If Arizona loses their next 2-3-4 in a row…we start dredging up old fears.
-- Who is going to start for Seattle at RB this week (Week 8)? Everyone is hurt. Everyone might be out…or everyone might be in.
If Chris Carson is out, a big IF, who would it be?
Carlos Hyde (15-68-1, 2-8-0/4) would split with Travis Homer (3-10-0) but Hyde has a hamstring concern and Homer has a knee concern. They are both questionable.
Rashaad Penny doesn’t seem back anytime soon.
It could leave DeeJay Dallas (2-18-0/3) by attrition. And Dallas has shown promise…like if Hyde-Homer had an offspring it would be Dallas.
Just noting…Dallas could be in a position to shock the world if the injury issues all go against Seattle. Watch the practice reports and whether they sign any backs off the street THU-FRI. I’ll be watching.
-- D.K. Metcalf (2-23-0/5) had a bad FF game…after I proclaimed that he’s the greatest FF thing in the world the week prior. That’s how these things work. You need me to bring down a WR in 2020? For a small fee, I’ll write glowingly about them and they’ll be trapped in a bizarre coal mine collapse incident Sunday before kickoff.
Note…DKM had the game-winning (in OT) catch and run 30+ yard TD, but it got called back for a penalty elsewhere.
I’ll buy all your DKM stock, and Tyler Lockett (15-200-3/20) is going to be a huge beneficiary of DKM attention…just like this game. Seattle IS the elite passing game tally team of 2020…not KC, not Buffalo…Seattle. DKM and Lockett ‘win’.
If I LOVE a WR…this is what will happen to them, so beware when I get on a Parris, Diontae, Deebo, Chark, DKM last week or Claypool last week train: https://youtu.be/B40cQXCfooE
-- Is it me or does Andy Isabella (1-7-0/3) fail 90% of the time when he gets a chance at rare touches? It always seems he’s slipping and falling on every incoming pass. Might someone, anyone, maybe even himself…consider changing cleats at some point?
Isabella’s career is sliding down a drain here.
Memba when they drafted Isabella-Butler-KeeSean in the same draft incoming with Kilff…what a trio they had? Ummm…nope.
-- Christian Kirk (5-37-2/8) has been hot as a pistol for FF…I’m selling that all week long if I can. Selling him as a WR2 in a hot offense. Kirk has been a nobody all year, then got one lucky bomb vs. Dallas and then two short TDs here. 500+ yards of offense and Kirk has just 5 catches for 37 yards (but 2 TDs).
Kirk for Edmonds redraft? Done. I’ll take Edmonds. Need a bit more, I can make that happen to go with Kirk to get your Edmonds.
-- IDPs of note…
SEA DB Ryan Neal (9 tackles, 1 TFL) has come out of nowhere to be IDP great. 7.7 tackles, 1.0 TFLs, 1.0 PDs per game the past three games since he’s become a starter. Jamal Adams returning may change all that but it’s working for now.
SEA rookie LB Jordyn Brooks (7 tackles, 1 TFL) got his first major playing time of 2020 and in half a game was in on 7 tackles. Something to watch if he’s going to start soon – a 1st-round LB who is a talent, a master at TFLs.
Haason Reddick (11 tackles, 1.0 sacks, 3 TFLs) has been reborn with Chandler Jones out. 8.0 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 2.5 TFLs the past two weeks playing more snaps as an OLB pass rusher, which he was great at in college. Why they tried to convert him to ILB, I don’t understand…it wasted years of his career.
Snap Counts of Interest:
51 = Edmonds
34 = Drake
42 = Darrell Daniels
21 = Arnold
41 = Hyde
16 = Homer
15 = Carson
12 = Dallas
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 7: Game Analysis: Chargers 39, Jaguars 29
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
This game was jaw dropping after re-watching what really happened.
The Chargers jumped out to a 16-0 lead and it felt like the Chargers were going to win 50+ to nothing. Right before the half, the Jags got some momentum and closed the game to 16-14 LAC by the half. Right out of halftime, the Jags blocked a punt and took it in for a TD and all of a sudden, the Jaguars were winning 21-16.
Justin Herbert was about to put the hammer down.
LAC scored a TD to take the lead back 22-21. The Jags scored in response to take the lead 29-22. Herbert came back with a 70-yard TD to tie it 29-29, then Herbert scored again to cap off a 20-point 3rd-quarter and take a lead they’d never relinquish. The Chargers won by 10 but felt like they were 100+ points better than the Jags. I’m not sure how Jacksonville stayed in this game so long.
The Chargers are (2-4) and are the best 2-win team in the NFL. Imagine if Herbert had started right away… LAC has two wins and 4 close losses they should’ve won. It’s a potential (6-0) team masquerading as a (2-4) sad sack.
I bet against the Chargers winning 7.5 games this season – and I am thinking I’m going to lose that now. We see the Chargers getting to 8 wins now…with 9 possible, and 7 possible. Come on Anthony Lynn, save me!!
Jacksonville is done. Doug Marrone is trying to get fired but hasn’t been able too yet. He’s probably wondering what is taking so long. The team went all in on Gardner Minshew as their franchise QB for 2020, starting midway 2019…and six weeks into this season, Marrone is hinting about benching him. Yeah…Minshew is the problem. Got it.
If Minshew loses his job before Marrone, I’ll never endorse Jacksonville for anything ever again.
The Jags are going to quit on Marrone, because he quit on Minshew…and Minshew is now going to quit on Marrone. If Minshew had pass protection he might really soar from here just doing what he wants racking numbers, but on every play it seems he’s about to get sacked 2-3 steps into his 5-step drop every time now. 5.0 sacks, 9 QB hits for the Chargers this game. The Marrone Jaguars are ‘finished’…New York Jets bad, or worse. They have the young talent but Marrone is killing it…like 2019. It’s over.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Just a quick note…Justin Herbert (27-43 for 347 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT, 9-66-1) continues to be the best rookie QB I’ve ever seen play his rookie season. Only Patrick Mahomes and maybe Russell Wilson are better NFL QBs right now/2020. Herbert is like fine art to watch play QB. He has it all.
Watching Herbert breeze through his rookie year with bad coaching…I’m starting to wonder if Tua is not as good as Burrow/Herbert, and he isn’t, but that still might mean Tua is a top 15 QB in the NFL day one because the new age rookies are better than most all existing QBs instantly.
Anthony Lynn may beat ‘it’ out of him, but right now…as I’ve been saying since like Week 3…I’ve never seen anything like it/Herbert…not Baker’s 1st0-year. Not Burrow, although he has been great. Definitely not Kyler’s first year, which was promising.
-- Gardner Minshew (14-27 for 173 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT, 4-21-0) pales by comparison to Herbert, but Minshew is a cautionary tale for Herbert…because Minshew looked fabulous early on/as a rookie. Surreal at times. Now, he’s fighting off Jake Luton or Mike Glennon less than a year later.
When you put great QB talent with awful, old-school, controlling, ogre head coaches…it can kill the QB. It’s like letting ‘Russ cook’. How many times have you heard that this year? Did anyone in the NFL ever stop to think what that statement really means? It really means Pete Carroll is so incredibly stupid he had the NFL’s best QB under wraps for years on purpose. It wasn’t Russ not letting Russ cook. It wasn’t the fans doing it. Who was it that was not allowing said cooking? Why aren’t there ramifications for this?
Imagine at your workplace you were such an awful supervisor that you drove down sales and profits with a business, doing so with employees that everyone thinks has talent and profitability – you’d be demoted or fired quickly upon the multiple year failed results. So how does Pete Carroll get away with this?
Football Society: Oh, man…good ole Pete is 114 years old but he looks like he’s 57. The players love his enthusiasm!!!
Me: Yeah that’s great, but let’s get back to the not letting the thing that everyone knows can cook not cook issue…it doesn’t trouble you?
Football Society: Nope! Pete had Will Ferrell at practice once. It was hilarious. We all laughed. Pete’s so young at heart!!
Me: But the cooking thing…in order for people to yell about ‘letting Russ cook’…it means something was not allowing him to cook prior. Who was the cook-blocker? Wasn’t it Pete Carroll? Shouldn’t that be grounds for termination? What else might he not be allowing to cook that he should?
Football Society: I mean, the players love him. He won a Super Bowl you know!
Me: Well, so did Barry Switzer…by letting Jimmy Johnson’s players cook. So, no punishment for this cook problem for the last several years with Carroll?
Football Society: Why are you allowing the Russian disinformation to make you hate Pete Carroll?
Where was I? Oh, Marrone has undermined Gardner Minshew and this only ends poorly for Minshew and the team.
-- If Minshew is benched, D.J. Chark (1-26-0/7) is Terry McLaurin with Dwayne Haskins, or Darius Slayton with Dan Jones, or worse. Probably worse.
The good news…Minshew targeted Chark more than any other Jaguar this game.
The bad news…it resulted in one catch, and that was a chore of a completion.
There should be garbage time here, but we can’t get that…but note the Chargers have a good defense/cover people…and they doubled him a bunch. Some of this was LAC…a lot of this is Doug Marrone has killed off this team.
-- No such issues for Herbert getting the ball where he wants to. However, some of who you think should thrive in this passing game are not.
And I see issues with them…
1) Mike Williams (1-4-0/3) – Justin Herbert is basically throwing the ball to whomever he wants at will. But somehow his throws to Mike Williams look way off base. Actually, in this game – Herbert dropped back and looked everywhere except for where Williams was. It’s almost like Herbert doesn’t want to throw to him.
Based on this game and all the prior Herbert-Williams events…it’s not good. Williams going off only when Keenan Allen left the game a few weeks ago.
2) Hunter Henry (3-23-0/7) looks terrible. No life in his legs. Never open in one-on-one coverage. I don’t know if he’s hurt or just too many knee injuries. He looks a little like Trey Burton to me suddenly…slow and stiff and never open in one-on-ones. Henry has value as the TE here, but his upside has to be capped because he’s working so slow. Maybe he opens up like Gronk did after a few weeks, but right now Henry looks like he’s stuck in molasses.
-- Jalen Guyton (2-84-1/3) is making some big plays/long TDs but not much otherwise. 1-3 targets a game, 1-2 catches, but one of them for big numbers typically (of late).
This could be a blip…or a sign of things to come. It feels like it’s a Kalif Raymond or Marvin Hall 2019 blip. I don’t see any effort by Herbert to up his work/game with Guyton.
-- Donald Parham (1-22-1/1) is a young player who has my interest. A legit 6’8”, fairly athletic TE prospect in 2019 who got shunned by the NFL and then went and had a good run with the XFL, and is now becoming the red zone threat for the Chargers, slowly but surely (which hurts H Henry a little bit).
Parham was kinda wiry framed/built, like a half TE/WR, out of Stetson in 2019. He wasn’t the typical T.J. Hockenson profile that NFL guys crave – the big bulky blockers with average speed and decent hands/non-playmakers. The NFL is so unimaginative, they didn’t explore what they could do with a 6’8” TE who was a playmaker in college and at the East-West Shine practices I watched him work at in 2019.
It’s a long road to ‘making it’ for a guy like Parham, who will be denied opportunity because he’s a UDFA that makes the system look bad if he does well…he must be shown to not be any good because he wasn’t drafted.
Parham has two catches this season (in the last 3 weeks)…both for TDs, from 19 and 22 yards out.
-- Josh Kelley (12-29-0, 5-24-0/5) is averaging 3.1 yards per carry this season.
Justin Jackson (5-12-0, 5-43-0/6) is averaging 3.4 yards per carry this season.
You want to see a minimum of 4.0 ypc. So, why are these guys so low? Do they suck? I don’t think so, I think it’s more the LAC O-Line is so devastated by injury as this season has gone on…it’s right up there with Philly and Dallas as corrupted O-Line situations for guys to try and run behind. It’s almost a lost cause.
It’s going to be a hot hand approach and either ‘hot’ one is going to be stuck scraping for yards due to the O-Line. The two combined for 2.4 yards per carry in this game…against Jacksonville, of all defenses. Not good.
-- One of the reasons the run game was even worse than normal…might have been the presence of the debut of LB Quincy Williams (7 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 PD).
All I can tell you is – the guy I saw on this tape, the Quincy in this game…that’s the guy I thought was going to be a monster LB in the NFL. Quick to the ball and hitting like a ton of bricks. Good to see. He’s back onto the Dynasty Stash reports for sure!
-- One of the helpers for the LAC run game might be WR-who-could-be-an-RB rookie Joe Reed (2-14-1). He is a Deebo Samuel waiting to happen…and lookie here, 2 carries, one near the goal line…easy TD, 7.0 yards per carry on his two touches. Expect to see more Reed ahead because the WR jet sweep can help with the OL issues. It also means you’re going to be hard pressed to get TDs from Kelley-Jackson week-to-week.
Reed will only be lowly used by LAC ahead, I think. No big breakout imminent…but I hope I’m wrong. He’s still in his infancy stage.
-- James Robinson (22-119-1, 4-18-1/6) is the center of the Jags universe. He’s a ‘C’ grade, solid RB prospect that has gotten the coaches so committed to him that they have placed the offense on his back. Something tells me…this won’t end well, hold up, ride off into the sunset with this gem RB1 for years. I’m a sell-high, right now…very high…like a top 5-8 RB in fantasy high valuation.
Do you think this Jags team is built to carry a running back to FF glory? He’d been sagging for weeks before this. Sell the rookie new car smell hot.
In Dynasty, do you think the new coach is going into battle with Robinson as his singular lead…the RB that got Doug Marrone fired, in part?
-- There were moments in this game the Chargers defense looked dominant. They have elements of a dominating defense, and when they get CB Chris Harris back from injury…they might just start hitting that higher level. Like a top 5 best defense in the NFL level. A poor man’s Tampa Bay defense if everyone can stay healthy.
They have an offense now that can help support it.
Snap Counts of Interest:
69 = K Allen
61 = Mk Williams
54 = Guyton
07 = J Reed
62 = H Henry
18 = Parham
38 = Kelley
31 = J Jackson
55 = DJ Chark
48 = Cole
47 = Shenault
16 = Conley
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 7: Game Analysis: 49ers 33, Patriots 6
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
I can’t substantiate it, but I’ll just say it anyway – this was the worst played game I’ve ever seen from a Bill Belichick team. No joke, with little hyperbole…the Patriots played like they did not care. Their young players are giving an effort, but are mostly all mediocre talents. The veteran players are mailing it in. I saw some defenders in position/running towards ballcarriers in position to make tackles…and then slowing up and not even trying.
Several Patriots players opted-out before the season started. Some are opting out while going through the motions on the field. If I’m Belichick, I have to be totally embarrassed and question why I’d even want to return to this mess in 2021 – he needs to blow everything up and change offensive coordinators and go through a 1-2 year rebuild…all while Tom Brady currently plays better than he has in a decade and the Buccaneers are instantly 10x better than what Belichick has woven together.
The sure sign of NFL coaches going into a decline phase of their career…seeing them pop up in commercials. Belichick’s best work this season has been for Subway, not Robert Kraft.
This Patriots group has one last stand hope…beat Buffalo this week. I think the Pats are going to get obliterated and thus effectively end the season and start giving away veteran next week and using the rest of the season as a training camp for young players. If they beat Buffalo, they’re still ‘in it’ but they aren’t going anywhere even if they do make the playoffs. I think they lose to the Bills and pack it in for 2020 – cutting Cam, trading/cutting Edelman, etc.
Of course, I thought the 49ers were dead after Week 5, after getting crushed by Miami…but they’ve beaten the brakes off of two decent teams since (LAR and NE). The schedule is coming for SF now: at SEA, GB, NO, BYE, at LAR, BUF the next five games could send them to (5-7)/(6-6) and scuffling to get to 9 wins and a wild card. If the 49ers win 11+ games and win the NFC West, with all their injuries, Kyle Shanahan deserves a permanent Coach of the Year award/prize.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Here’s how bad the Patriots played this game…4th/5th-string RB Jeff Wilson (17-112-3, 2-8-0/2) ran for 100+ yards and 3 TDs just in just 2+ quarters of play. He got hurt on his 3rd TD run and left the game right after. He might have had 200+ yards and 5 TDs the way he was running (untouched by a soft NE defense).
When Wilson left, UDFA rookie JaMycal Hasty (9-57-0, 1-16-0/1) continued the party. Hasty looks pretty good and is in a position to be a shock RB1 this week…even against a good Seattle run defense.
I know it won’t be Jerick McKinnon (3-0-0) as an RB1 this week…he died and went to RB heaven about 3 weeks ago.
Tevin Coleman could spoil the Hasty party by being active for Week 8, but he’s probably going to return for Week 9. Hasty has a 1-2 week run in him before Raheem Mostert returns.
-- It’s simplistic, but let’s run with it…Brandon Aiyuk (6-115-0/7) is kinda Deebo like, a more wiry, quicker twitch version. So, with Deebo out it’s likely Aiyuk becomes that WR1-1.5 that Deebo was starting to track into to (until Deebo returns).
The 49ers have no other options at WR, so expect Aiyuk to see 2-4 carries and 10+ targets a game with Deebo out…and gets a very ‘giving’ Seattle pass defense).
-- Cam Newton (9-15 for 98 yards, 0 TD/3 INTs) career probably comes down to the Week 8 game at BUF. If the Pats win and Cam is good…the season is temporarily saved. If Cam throws 2-3 picks in a crushing defeat, Belichick will trade him or cut him Monday after Week 8’s game.
A big loss to the Bills means the Patriots season is done and they might as well see what they have with Jarrett Stidham (6-10 for 64 yards, 0 TDs/1 INT), which doesn’t look like a whole lot at this point.
Stidham has completed 48.1% of his passes with 1 TD/4 INTs so far in his career…this thing looks like it is going down fast.
-- The Patriots have nothing exciting to throw to, is part of the problem…
Jakobi Meyers (4-60-0/6), I believe, with the way he played this game…has earned a starting role. The only WR that I’ve seen play with any juice for NE in weeks.
Meyers is a very sound, savvy, limited athlete WR. He has some Travis Fulgham upside…where the opportunity presents itself and he seizes it as a professional WR – but this passing game is nothing that will catapult WRs to fantasy glory. If it ever does, it could be Meyers this week. Cam was leaning on him hard for a stretch before everything died.
-- The best weapon on the Patriots’ offense is Damien Harris (10-58-0, 1-12-0/1). I think we’re going to see a heavy workload from Harris this week, as their only hopes to control/defeat the Bills. Harris is the future of the Pats backfield. And the future might not be so congested next year when the rebuild removes Rex and James White among others.
-- Two weeks ago, I declared the 49ers-DST dead…and since then they have two excellent FF events back-to-back. You can’t use them v. SEA this week…not Week 9 v. GB…nor Week 10 at NO…nor Week 11 on BYE. Are you prepared to hold them through the next 4 weeks to get to the LAR-BUF matchups Weeks 12-13? From Weeks 8-13…not a confident use game in there.
If they shut down Seattle, I have to fall on my sword and declare that I don’t know anything about football…
The 49ers, prior to the last two weeks have been giving up a ton of points for their last 10+ games going back to 2019.
Snap Counts of Interest:
48 = Byrd
41 = Meyers
31 = Edelman
11 = Harry
25 = Burkhead
21 = Harris
10 = White
37 = Wilson
15 = Hasty
12 = McKinnon
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 7: Game Analysis: Lions 23, Falcons 22
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
This just felt like a ‘no one wants to win this game’ type of contest between these two…felt it during the live watch Sunday and again on the rewatch. Two mediocre/below average teams duking it out and it came down to bad ref calls and a shocking last second TD pass to take the deserved win away from the Falcons, thus ending their season effectively, and pumping life into the Lions season.
The Lions are now (3-3) and in the playoff race but definitely don’t feel or look like a playoff team, but in 2020 ‘who knows’? If they can beat the Colts this week, they got a shot to get to (8-8)/(9-7) with their schedule ahead. Something tells me they lose this week and then 5-6-7 wins is more the right projection.
Atlanta blew a golden opportunity. With a win they would have been (2-5) and trying to stay alive…but it’s over. Their schedule after their Week 10 bye is so brutal, they’re smart to just cash out before the trade deadline…and the rumor mill is already buzzing. We could see 2-3-4 Falcons dealt this next week…as ATL ends up a 3-4 win team this season in the end.
Fantasy Player Notes
-- I guess D’Andre Swift (9-27-1, 4-21-0/5) is the Lions main RB now…a strong RB2 for fantasy ahead?
Swift dominated their first scoring drive with 4 carries for 27 yards, including a nice 3-yard TD run. I was thinking Swift was going to have a huge game with the early production against a really good v. the run ATL defense.
Swift saw 5 carries for 2 yards the rest of the game.
10 +/- carries and 3-6 catches a game is where he is headed, and is the team’s best goal line back because everyone knows if AP is in they’re not likely throwing the ball.
Swift is a strong/stable play for FF ahead in PPR especially.
-- A tale of two TEs who had good output from this game…
1) T.J. Hockenson (5-59-1/6) took advantage of a terrible-against-the-TE defense by Atlanta. TJH is still a lump of nothing to me as an NFL receiving talent. Just plays a lot of snaps and is there for things. If the Lions never got a shot at that late game TD pass (to TJH) then it’s another useless game by the Hock for FF.
2) Hayden Hurst (6-68-0/7), however, is showing signs of an upswing. 50+ yards in a game in three of his last 4 games. 3 TDs in his last 6 games, and no TD here but was wide open for a 22-yarder but Matt Ryan threw the ball 6 inches too far for Hurst to grab.
Hurst is a for-sure stable TE1…Hockenson is a random TE1 if he can get a TD.
-- Russell Gage (6-54-0/7) is perking back up again. After a hot start to the season he cooled way off Weeks 3-5, but is averaging 5.0 rec. (5.5 targets), 59.5 yards, 0.0 TDs per game the past two games under Raheem Morris.
Not anything hot for FF but is rising back up as an option/on-the-radar in deeper leagues/PPR.
-- Had Matt Stafford (25-36 for 340 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) not gotten the ball back with one minute left, he would have logged ANOTHER under 300 yards passing game and he would have had NO TD passes here…in a game vs. a weak ATL pass defense.
Stafford is a back-end QB2 nowadays. What a terrible decline from his stellar 2019 pace.
-- DET DE Romeo Okwara (3 tackles, 2.0 sacks, 3 QB hits) is on fire as of late.
In his last 4 games, he’s averaging: 2.5 tackles, 1.0 sacks, 1.0 TFLs, and 2.5 QB hits per game. He IS the Lions’ pass rush now. Against Indy this week is not favorable for sacks, but then MIN-WAS-CAR-HOU-CHI after that has promise for him to keep up his sack pace.
Snap Counts of Interest:
53 = Gurley
17 = Br Hill
59 = Julio
58 = Ridley
25 = Br Powell
24 = Gage
28 = Swift
19 = AP
14 = Kerryon
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 7: Game Analysis: Saints 27, Panthers 24
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
The Saints scored first and held the lead until the end of the 3rd-quarter. Carolina tied it going into the 4th-quarter, but the Saints hit a field goal with 7+ minutes left. Carolina was last minute driving for a game tying FG attempt…Teddy got sacked and took them from a 50+ yard FG to a 65-yard attempt…in which Joey Slye split the uprights on it but his kick went 64.8 yards, and just went under the crossbar for a heartbreaking ending.
This was a back and forth game. Hard to tell who the better team was…at New Orleans. That’s a sign that: (a) The Panthers are really good among the ‘average’ teams. And (b) The Saints are fading away, getting lucky to win week-to-week. Their run with Brees, et al. is over. The Bucs have surpassed them, among others.
The Saints are now (4-2), lucky they aren’t (1-5). If they lose at TB Week 9…they might not even be a playoff team. I think they will get destroyed in Week 9 and then we’d project them to go 9 wins, 10 wins possible.
The Panthers are (3-4) and that’s about what they are…a .500 team. They are the future of the NFC South from 2022 on. Right now, they’re just a pesky team to play each week…not ready for primetime. 7-8 wins are very possible for Carolina this season…9 wins on the table.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Will Christian McCaffrey (DNP) play Week 8? Probably not, but he looks strong for Week 9. This is the final week of Mike Davis (7-12-0, 5-24-0/5), which is timely because he looks like he’s running out of steam a bit. Just 2.6 yards per carry his last two games…he may be secretly banged up. He was a bit questionable a few weeks ago.
It’s getting so bad at RB that UDFA rookie CB Myles Hartsfield (2-2-0) took the second-most carries in the game for the Panthers. Hartsfield recently converted to RB (a former high school RB star) to help the cause.
In a key goal line situation late, Curtis Samuel (1-5-1, 6-48-0/6) took a goal line TD to tie the game.
If no CMC, Davis is a play Week 8…but worry about underperformance. If CMC can play, Davis may not see the relief touches we think…I believe he needs a week to recoup from his injuries/hits he’s been taking. He’s always been an injury bug guy.
-- Robby Anderson (6-74-0/8) is still the Carolina WR to have.
D.J. Moore (4-93-2/5) scored 2 TDs, and that’s great but he’s just a 3rd-wheel in this passing game now…and it’s working, so no hate for the FF results but the real activity is that Robby is Teddy’s guy and then Custis Samuel has become a de facto go-to in the important spots, a clutch WR …he’s caught like 14-of-14 passes converting 3rd-downs this season. He’s been a low-key MVP for the Panthers.
Moore hit on a 74-yard catch and run TD this game…which is nice. But he had 3 catches for 19 yards otherwise. He’s closer to being 2020 Christian Kirk than you think.
Moore has 6 or fewer targets in four of his last five games…he’s averaged 4.8 catches per game the past 5 weeks.
In that same span, Samuel has 4.5 catches per game…but add in his rushing attempts and he has his hands on the ball 7.2 times per game compared to Moore’s 4.8.
Samuel is getting back on the Flex radar.
-- Marquez Callaway (8-75-0/10) became the new favorite target for Drew Brees…by attrition. No Thomas-Sanders this game.
All I saw was Callaway running basic routes and sitting in pockets of the zone and Brees hitting him for easy catches. No star activity, just ‘available’…and Tre’Quan Smith 4-54-0/4) sucks/is useless so a UDFA rookie WR is now more important in a crisis.
Callaway could be a factor this week if Thomas-Sanders out again, but he’s very questionable with a late-game injury that didn’t look great. I don’t see a star or even a Travis Fulgham or Marcus Johnson-like potential rise to power. It just is what it is, that I see. Will go away quickly when Thomas-Sanders returns.
-- Jared Cook (3-32-1/4) is doing Jared Cook things…lower volume, high propensity for TDs. 3 TDs in his last 4 games. Under 35 yards with just 2 catches each game in three of his last four games. That’s who he is…but with some hope for upside for more when Thomas-Sanders returns, and things get back to more normal for the Saints.
-- Saints DE Marcus Davenport (2 tackles, 1.0 sacks) is back from injury. In his two games played this year…3 QB hits total. He’s getting to the QB playing about 50% of the snaps on defense as a pass rush specialist. He’s showing signs of sacks to come especially against bad O-Line play. Problem is no great matchups for IDP the next 3 weeks: CHI-TB-SF.
-- Is the Saints-DST a sleeper/worthy of attention ahead? Going into the season people felt like this was a top NFL defense…it hasn’t been.
The have value vs. CHI this week but then at TB, SF, at ATL is not great. I’m not seeing any signs that this defense is turning a corner…I see more things to worry about then get excited about.
Snap Counts of Interest:
58 = Kamara
23 = Murray
33 = Mk Davis
22 = Samuel
04 = Hartsfield
03 = Cannon
