R.C. Fischer

Total Football Advisor

04 October 2021

Looking at three Fantasy notes from each game this Sunday and our five players' advisory list for upcoming waivers, trading, and deep sleepers...

Ross Jacobs

FFM

04 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 4: Bengals 24, Jaguars 21

Well, the Jaguars tried. They were up 14-0 at one point after taking it to Cincy early, but the Bengals fought back to tie the game up. At that point the Jaguars were reeling, but they buckled down and scored again to take a 7 point lead. It was not to be though. Cincy responded again with the tying TD and then kicked the last second field goal for the win.

It was a gutsy win for the finally respectable Bengals and a devastating loss for the downtrodden Jaguars.

Cincinnati isn't exactly a good team yet, but they are moving in the right direction. The offense is starting to put some drives together and the defense is no longer a complete pushover like they have been for so many years. I doubt they crack .500 this year, but a 7-10 or 8-9 season might be within reach. If they can continue building around Burrow during the 2022 off-season, this team might actually be in the playoff hunt next year. They still need more offensive linemen and more help on defense, but there's finally some hope for the Bungles.

Poor Jacksonville. They finally showed some spine here and nearly pulled off the win, but ran out of gas at the finish line. Perhaps if they still had Gardner Minshew, Joe Schobert, and CJ Henderson they could have gotten it done. Unfortunately the mastermind known as Urban Meyer rid his team of arguably their three best players, and this is the consequence. It doesn't matter how much heart and effort your team puts in if they aren't also talented. Maybe Meyer can gut his way through a terrible year and start the rebuild next year, but this has been an inauspicious start to his NFL career. Jacksonville is clearly headed for a bad year. If they get to 4 or 5 wins it's going to be a minor miracle. This just isn't a good team on either side of the ball.

It doesn't help matters that Meyer is once again embroiled in controversy after he was allegedly spotted at a restaurant he owns in Ohio with a younger woman that was not his wife. It's just the latest in a string of missteps for Meyer who can't seem to get out of his own way. We'll see if he survives this latest drama, but it's not looking good for him so far.

Fantasy Notes

--Joe Burrow (25-32 for 348, 2 TD/0 INT, 3-4-0) put up a nice stat line here, but something still seems off with him. I can't put my finger on it. Last year you could see in an instant, even with much worse surroundings, that Burrow was talented. He just had this assassin feel where he could carve up a defense with perfect pass after perfect pass. This year it's missing. I don't know if it's his knee, or in his head, or what, but I'm absolutely convinced he's not himself right now. Will we ever get the old Burrow back? Maybe. I don't know. I hope so. But right now he's not in the same league as his fellow 2020 1st rounder Justin Herbert.

--Another year of a billion touches for Joe Mixon (16-67-1, 1-0-0/2) with not much to show for it. Mixon is incredibly talented for sure and he dominates the backfield, but none of that matters if there's nowhere to run. If you have him you just have to hang in there and hope things open up at some point. I don't see why they would however. I'll say it again, they should have drafted Penei Sewell over...

--Ja'Marr Chase (6-77-0/9). I still don't see it. He catches 4 random TD's his first three games and most analysts fall all over themselves proclaiming his greatness. The announcers did it again here, waxing poetic as he caught basic slant passes against a prevent defense, acting like he's the best rookie receiver they've ever seen even as he gets completely shown up by his much less heralded teammate Tyler Boyd (9-118-0/11), who the team didn't waste a top 5 pick on.

Chase isn't special. Rondale Moore is a thousand times the weapon that Chase is, but the media has already decided Chase is the greatest so they're going to jam it down our throats for the next 10 years despite all the evidence to the contrary. Six catches for 77 yards against one of the worst secondaries in football isn't impressive. Chase is the 3rd best receiver, at best, on his own team, and the only reason he got 9 targets here is because Tee Higgins was out for the game.

You can probably continue to use him decently enough for fantasy because his buddy Burrow is going to force him the ball, but I wouldn't expect to keep getting TD's at the rate he has been. There's just nothing flashing here so far. Chase is a decent receiver in a decent offense, and he's not even the overwhelming top option, just another good one among many. If you have him I would trade him hot right now while everyone else thinks he's some great WR1. The fun times likely aren't going to last.

--I already mentioned Tyler Boyd and how good he is. If you've been with RC for a while you already know this. Boyd is a better receiver than Chase for sure, and yet he'll get absolutely no credit for his performance here and 100/100 analysts not with FFM will tell you Chase is the better player. Unfortunately, while Boyd should be getting this treatment every week, you can't count on it. Boyd will likely remain a random WR2-3 once Higgins comes back.

--I guess CJ Uzomah (5-95-2/6) is the newest flavor-of-the-week TE that everyone will chase on waivers. Someone will start him and he'll put up 3-26-0 next week and be right back on waivers. There's nothing popping with him. It was just one of those random games guys sometimes get. He's a decent enough player, but he's the 5th option on this team.

--Trevor Lawrence (17-24 for 204, 0 TD/0 INT, 8-36-1) is getting better by the week. That doesn't mean run out and grab him off waivers, but just something to keep in mind. He's still very limited and doesn't work well down the field. His offensive line protection is allowing him time to scan the field and make smart throws though. If the protection ever breaks down he'll be back to turning it over 3-4 times a game.

--Hope you bought low on James Robinson (17-78-2, 1-(-2)-0/2) last week like RC advised. The door has slammed shut now. Robinson is the for sure lead back here over Hyde and the best option this offense has for moving the ball. He looks like a back end RB1 the rest of the schedule.

--Laviska Shenault (6-99-0/7) was the WR winner of the week here. He didn't do anything particularly special. He's still mostly a bubble screen guy but got a few shots down the field that he normally doesn't. Maybe the Jags try to work that in more, but honestly Shenault looked uncomfortable working down the field as a real WR. There's a reason he's the screens and drags guy.

--DJ Chark went down on the 3rd play of the game and his season is likely over with an ankle fracture.

The receiver I recommend trying to grab in the wake of the Chark injury is Marvin Jones (3-24-0/3). He's always been the preferred option for Lawrence, and now he should get all of the medium-deep work, especially now that the offensive line is allowing Lawrence more time to throw. Jones could be a really sneaky WR1.5 option ahead, so if you can get him as a throw-in on another deal I would do so. This is the spot to do it to as he just had a bad game and everyone is bashing the Jags for being 0-4.

--Dan Arnold (2-29-0/2) could be the other winner of the Chark injury. He was already getting involved in the offense here despite just arriving via trade, and he's clearly one of their best pass catchers. If you're dying at TE then Arnold is possibly the best chance at solid points available on most waiver wires right now. It's hard to expect it to pop right away considering he was rotating in with several other TE's, but it was his first week with the team, and the fact that he's already doing this after specifically being traded for suggests to me that they intend to get him more work. It's a speculation grab for sure, but again, if you're dying at TE it's a decent option.

--Tavon Austin (1-8-0/3) will replace Chark in 3 WR sets, but there's no point grabbing him for fantasy. Chark is a way better receiver and wasn't producing in this offense. What makes you think Austin will suddenly become fantasy relevant?

IDP Notes

--Logan Wilson (10 tackles, 1 sack) is having a fantastic year so far. His 4 games this year have produced, 7, 9, 14, and 10 tackles (10 tackles per game). If he keeps this up he's got a chance at leading the league.

--Rookie CB Tyson Campbell (8 tackles, 1 tfl) has 8 tackles each of the last two games as his snap counts have risen. He's allowing a lot of short catches, but that works for fantasy. He's an athlete but definitely still learning to play the position. Doesn't look as bad as I feared he might though. He's tough to beat deep due to his speed.

Snap Counts of Interest

52 = Marvin Jones

42 = Laviska Shenault

41 = Tavon Austin

24 = Chris Manhertz

18 = Dan Arnold

16 = Luke Farrell

11 = Jacob Hollister

R.C. Fischer

FFM

01 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 3: Broncos 26, Jets 0

Before the game you were probably thinking…the Broncos will likely play a controlled, safe, steady game and just methodically roll over the Jets – Denver just needed to get the lead and then just let the Jets flail away, and Denver occasionally capitalize on the gifts of good field position.

And what really happened in this game was… The Broncos played a controlled, safe, steady game and just methodically rolled over the Jets – Denver got the lead and then just let the Jets flail away, as Denver occasionally capitalized on the gifts of good field position.

This was never a game. The Jets have the worst offense in the NFL…the worst O-Line (along with PIT) …5 sacks, 9 QB hits…and no run game and the worst WR group in the NFL. They will win a game before too long because one of these times they will face a weak pass rush team and catch a break, and they have a top 10 NFL defense…but boy are they painful to watch on offense.

Denver jumps to (3-0) out of the gates, as we modeled could/would happen due to a fortuitous schedule. If they can just go (7-7) from here, they will win 10 games and make the playoffs. Their schedule ahead is more difficult (how could it not be?) but is not daunting until after a Week 11 BYE where in a 7-game span they play LAC and KC 4 times. They should get to 10 wins and sneak into the playoffs, but The Computer’s data is flashing warnings on Denver – that there are issues being hidden by a very easy schedule (NYG-JAX-NYJ…teams a combined 0-10 as I write this).

This game went about exactly as everyone thought, so not a ton of player notes.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Another week, another Zach Wilson (19-35 for 160 yards, 0 TDs/2 INTs) looks bad event. Because everything is about the QB and/or who won last week for the fans/analysts, so everyone in football is up in arms calling Wilson a bust. They want him to be a bust, so they are going to try to speak it into existence. It’s the cool thing to do among the media elites…and the football plebes (fans) take their cues from their overlord media.

The talking point for them this week is – Justin Fields’s Week 3 disaster is Matt Nagy’s fault…because THEY like Fields. He’s THEIR guy. So, it can’t be his fault. However, they don’t like Wilson…so this is all his fault.

The correct answer is – it’s neither QB’s fault. They’re thrown into the NFL arena with bad O-Lines and are under constant pressure to do anything.

When Fields was dying Week 3…he just took it. It’s a me-first guy worried about his stats ( my opinion). He won’t throw the ball under pressure. He’ll eat the sack.

Wilson doesn’t care…he’s trying to make plays on 3rd and long, or 4th-down. He’s trying to make something happen against all odss/pressures. He should just check down more to pad his numbers and get everyone off his back, and he did that more here but between RBs dropping the passes or the WRs dropping passes/not getting open with max pressure on al most every snap…what’s Wilson to do? Wilson had 100+ yards and a potential TD pass left on the field with drops.

Corey Davis (5-41-0/1) as your #1 WR…is the crime of the century. Oh, Zach don’t worry…we got Ryan Griffin (1-5-0/1) and Tyler Kroft (2-12-0/2) to help you as TE ‘weapons’.

Wilson’s two best WRs seem to be Braxton Berrios and Keelan Cole, so of course we get Corey Davis and Elijah Moore starting/see the most targets. His best WR is really Denzel Mims…not even active.

If Matt Nagy is killing Justin Fields…then what is Robert Saleh doing to Zach Wilson? How is Mims not even active? You mean hiring your best friend's brother to 1st-time coordinate an offense in the NFL isn’t working 3 weeks in against three top 10 NFL defenses (CAR-NE-DEN)…I’m shocked!

I’ll buy all your Zach Wilson in Dynasty for 2022 and beyond…for pennies on the dollar now. But my QB room is pretty salty already in most cases, so…not a great need. I’ll buy only to make you bleed for it…virtually give me it for nothing.

 -- Michael Carter (9-24-0, 2-5-0/3) is now just ‘the man’ for NYJ at RB, I guess. They went the whole summer gearing up for Tevin Coleman…and two weeks in that’s done and Carter is the man, for now.

Wilson tried to use him as a checkdown weapon some, but not enough. Wilson hit him for a sweet 10+ yard pass in stride that might have gone for 20-50+ yards, but Carter dropped it. Those things happen.

Main takeaway…it’s Carter’s backfield for now. That’s FF-worth something.

 -- The Broncos played very vanilla and just sat on the Jets…so no high-flying passing game numbers. Courtland Sutton (5-37-0/5) caught everything thrown his way, just low targets. He had a TD shot but fell 1-yard short. Ditto Tim Patrick (5-98-0/5).

 -- The typical backfield split again for Denver…

Melvin Gordon (18-60-1, 1-21-0/2) starts, but Javonte Williams (12-29-1, 3-33-0/4) was in quickly, and they shared touches. Gordon had a chance for a second TD halted by the Jets near the goal line. Javonte had two more TDs halted from short range.

That Jets defense never surrenders…they stopped so many plays from short distances in this game. This defense is terrific but no support from the offense to make them FF-viable.

Snap Counts of Interest:

58 = Fant

51 = Sutton

51 = Patrick

36 = Gordon

27 = Javonte

31 = Ty Johnson

23 = M Carter

51 = C Davis

42 = Berrios

27 = Cole

26 = E Moore

R.C. Fischer

FFM

01 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 3: Bills 43, Football Team 21

I thought, after watching it live, that this game study would be a run of the mill Buffalo Bills beatdown with limited ‘fresh’ notes, but I may have more notes on this game than any from this week!

The game itself = never close, really.

Buffalo jumped out to a 21-0 lead, quickly. Washington got that wonderful long screen pass TD by Antonio Gibson to close it to 21-7…then WFT recovered a weird trick kickoff in the Buffalo red zone, and scored a TD soon after to make it 21-14. The F. Team got the ball back again after stopping Buffalo and had a chance to tie it, but Buffalo was done fooling around and just hammered Washington the rest of the way.

It was never close. There was like 5+ minutes of good fortune for Washington and then the Bills exercised their will for the other 55 minutes…maybe not all 55 minutes, they pulled starters/put in backups late in the game it was so bad a beating.

It’s early to say this, but my (way too…ugg, I hate that label) early call is: The Buffalo Bills are the best all-around team in football. I’d say it’s a Bills-Rams Super Bowl today, but there are several contenders to knock off the Rams in the NFC…so, that part is tentative. If Buffalo gets the #1 seed over the Chargers or Chiefs, then that will be the difference in getting the Bills over.

What’s wrong with Washington? I don’t know. This defense has totally collapsed…seemingly. An emerging unit 2nd-half of last season that added several pieces to it this offseason…and now is going backwards. Consider that I just mentioned Buffalo as the best team in football and to the Super Bowl, IF they get home field over the Chargers. Well, Washington has faced both LAC and BUF in the first three weeks…that’s not helping their data trends and win-loss. They also gave up 29 points to NYG Week 2, but that was a little fortuitous for NYG…Washington’s defense played pretty well there, but penalties reversed several 3rd-down stops and gave NYG many extra chances. We’ll discuss the WSH-DST in a bit.

If Washington goes out and beats Atlanta this week, then they are (2-2) and they are still in the NFC East race. Losing to LAC and BUF is not a crime in the first 3 weeks of the season…and they held down LAC Week 1 (to some degree)/shoulda won, really. They need Ryan Fitzpatrick back…but not sure when/if that will happen. Ron Rivera is not the best coach in football, and he’s attached to Taylor Heinicke like Sean McVay is to Matt Stafford…and Heinicke is no Matt Stafford.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- I completely missed the following in live watch: I knew J.D. McKissic (3-23-0, 2-15-0/2) started this game, that’s a touch unnerving if you own Antonio Gibson (12-31-0, 1-73-1/2), but that happens sometimes for a snap as teams try something to throw off the opposing defense. However, what I didn’t realize is…Antonio Gibson never played in the 1st series. Gibson did start the 2nd-series.

I wasn’t alone in missing this…

I watched Ron Rivera’s post-game 10-minute press conference and his 20-minute midweek press conference. 30 minutes of questions from reporters. Here’s what was asked/talked about the most…

Probably about 15+ minutes on why Washington sucks, especially on defense (asked in polite ways)

Probably about 10+ minutes on what Taylor Heinicke needs to do to get better.

Probably about 4-5 minutes on the pass rush problems.

0 minutes and 0 seconds on J.D. McKissic starting the first 5 offensive plays of the game/Gibson on the bench/sidelines.

The first 5 offensive plays of the game for Washington, all J.D. McKissic. Gibson is Washington’s bell cow RB? I don’t think so. Something has happened.

Well…AG has been banged up; they’re managing him! Well, why did he even play then? He did go on to have 14 touches in the game…so what’s being managed? They could’ve started him and switched him in and out with JDM if they wanted to manage his reps. No, this was a message – something is up with Gibson and Rivera. Is it just a one week message?

Could be he’s not practicing hard enough, and Gibson went out and responded this game (he played well) and everything will be fine from here. Maybe. After Gibson scored that long TD, then we saw Gibson more but McKissic in plenty. Gibson 31 snaps, McKissic 25 snaps.

Could be Rivera doesn’t like the offense with Gibson as much as he does McKissic? Odd, but defenses stack Gibson because they’re not afraid of Heinicke…a la Jonathan Taylor getting stacked and Nyheim Hines coming in looking better – it’s because the defenses change the way they play depending upon what they are trying to shut down.

I’m really not sure what it is…but it’s not nothing with Gibson not even in for any play on the first series. It would worry the hell out of me as a Gibson owner.

I would also consider picking up McKissic in PPR, if it makes sense for your depth chart/roster.

If Gibson did not make that amazing 73-yard catch and run TD on the 3rd-series, I don’t know how much he would have played compared to McKissic from there…Gibson stayed in more after that. I also know, there would have been WORLDWIDE Gibson panic without that long TD because without that it would have made three FF dud games in a row with no end in sight in this offense. That TD saved his current FF value and saved him from the Fantasy world turning on him (for now).

This might be the window to trade out of this thing (Gibson) in redraft. Sell while the selling is good. He may be fine from here, he looks fine to me, but something isn’t right…at least not in Week 3. It’s a bad offense and he’s the focus of the defense.

*Also, he has an injured shin on top of any other issues he has going into Week 4…we’ll see how effective he is, or if he’s active on Sunday.

 -- Speaking of three FF duds to start a season, Stefon Diggs (6-62-0/10) had another ho-hum FF-game. One of the top guys in 2020, not even a WR2 scorer in 2021 so far.

I’ll buy all your shares, but I’m not going too crazy to do it. But I’m happy to swipe from you in a panic.

Diggs just missed out on three 30+ yard plays here, one for a TD. This was nearly 8-9 catches for 130+ yards and a TD…and everything is fine. Josh Allen missed him wide open on one throw…sailed over his head. Diggs had one TD on his hands, but tight/PI type coverage disconnected the bomb TD. Diggs had another easy back shoulder opportunity, but Diggs went deep as Allen threw to his back shoulder.

All is fine enough here.

What happened this game was – Diggs was doubled a lot. Off the snap, the safety rolled right over to Diggs…so, Allen went elsewhere. Even with that doubling this could’ve been a monster game for Diggs if 1-2-3 of those big throws connects. When they went single coverage, Allen went right at Diggs.

I can hear it now…

Washington D-C: We were NOT going to let Stefon Diggs beat us! And he didn’t!

Me: But you gave up 43 points and Allen threw for 358 yards and 4 TDs while allowing nearly 500 yards of offense?

Washington D-C: Yeah, but Diggs didn’t beat us. So, mission accomplished.

Diggs is fine. Go get him while he’s down. Current owners are likely scared -- he’s a WR1.5 value to them in a panic to sell off/for you to buy.

With Diggs covered/doubled, Allen will go off with everyone else…

Cole Beasley (11-98-0/13) is a WR2-3 in PPR, as always.

Emmanuel Sanders (5-94-2/6) is more WR3 than WR2, but he’ll have big weeks and quiet weeks depending upon the Diggs coverage.

Dawson Knox (4-49-1/5) is becoming a back-end TE1 on TD volume.

Oh, and Josh Allen is still great. Why did you worry?

 -- I’d look to sell Terry McLaurin (4-62-0/7) hot. You can’t afford to wait weeks for Ryan Fitz to return (IF) and boost TML. You don’t dump McLaurin, you trade upwards – people very much believe McLaurin is a WR1 all day, and he might be – but this offense is dreadful and the WRs aside from McLaurin are a joke. Weeks 5-11 a number of top CBs going on McLaurin.

Will Curtis Samuel returning help? Maybe, but Samuel may not be back right for weeks…and then CSam is an easier, comfortable throw for Heinicke…some targets away from McLaurin. McLaurin is more difficult, downfield with limited time to wait for the route to develop type of throw…not good for Heinicke.

McLaurin isn’t a bust to dump…he’s just a sell higher move.

 -- Logan Thomas (4-42-1/4) is doing fine, he’s just stuck in a rough offense – and all these Washington guys facing Buffalo, of course they’re gonna struggle. LAC-NYG-BUF is probably the worst/toughest schedule any offense has faced to start 2021.

They get a break Week 4 at ATL, but then NO-KC-GB-DEN-BYE-TB-CAR…all with Heinicke most likely. It’s a tough upstream battle for upside production.

  -- The Bills are running the ball well enough, because teams want them to run versus getting blistered by them through the air.

So, Zack Moss (13-60-0, 3-31-1/3) can produce numbers in these high scoring blowouts. Devin Singletary (11-26-0, 1-0-0/2) is still the starter, but Buffalo games get out of hand quickly and they mix and match the RBs, and let Moss take more work in the cakewalk.

When the games are tighter, you’ll see less of Moss and more of Singletary…but are Buffalo games going to be tight that often?

 -- Watch for the Washington-DST to have a bounce back Week 4 at ATL, which then gives a decent outlook to their Week 5 vs. NO. Then you bail…Weeks 6-7 KC and GB. Week 9 BYE. Week 10 Brady. Week 12 Russell.

FYI, Cole Holcomb (15 tackles, 1 TFL) is #2 in the NFL in solo tackles. #4 in total tackles. I know what I’m doing in scouting…it just took a couple years to kick in, that’s all.

 -- Most of you reading this have Denver-DST or Buffalo-DST- since day one and are still enjoying the fruits of that labor (or started with WSH-DST and since moved into ARI-DST among other things).

Two things about the Bills-DST for owners:

1) Buffalo is arguably the best pure defense in the NFL. It’s between BUF and ARI, for me…but probably BUF because of coaching.

2) Make sure you have a plan for Buffalo-DST’s Weeks 5 (KC) and 7 (BYE)…and you’re pretty much fine from there.

ARI-DST has CLE and HOU those two weeks…it works. Versus CLE not awesome, but not bad.

CAR-DST has PHI and NYG, which is nice.

Snap Counts of Interest:

62 = Knox (this is jumping way up from norms the past 2 weeks)

14 = Sweeney

63 = Emm Sanders

59 = Diggs

52 = Beasley

23 = Gabe Davis

44 = Moss

34 = Devin

52 = McLaurin

35 = Dyami

34 = Humphries

20 = Cam Sims

31 = Gibson

25 = McKissic

Ross Jacobs

FFM

01 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 3: Cowboys 41, Eagles 21 

This was an old-fashioned beatdown by the Cowboys. It really wasn't even as close as the final score suggests. One of the Eagles scores was a sack strip for a TD by the defense. After that Dallas took complete control and were up by 4 scores near the end before Philly scored one last garbage time TD.

So it's very obvious that the Eagles got dramatically overrated after beating down the hapless Falcons, but the real question is: how good are the Cowboys?

They lost a close one to the Bucs, won a close hard fought game against a suddenly strong looking young Chargers team, and now they've demolished the Eagles. Personally, I think Dallas is the easy favorite to win the NFC East now, as most people agree, but I don't think they are one of the best teams in the NFC (as many people think)...yet...

There's certainly potential here. They have a great offense that is defying expectations by being very well coached. One of the concerns coming into the year was that McCarthy was a stiff, boring old coach with no creativity left. Well, he's still that but offensive coordinator Kellen Moore is not and he's putting together some fantastic game plans on offense. McCarthy will get all the credit, but we know where this is coming from.

On defense they have started to flash some real chops after struggling with the Bucs week 1. They gave up a lot of yards to a potent Chargers attack but mostly held them out of the end zone, and of course they smacked the Eagles around here. I think a lot of people are overrating this group right now though because they aren't factoring in how bad/injured the Philly offensive line is. The game plan by Nick Sirianni also wasn't great as he continued to try and attack Dallas the same way he did Atlanta (probably because it worked so well week 1). Unfortunately for him, Dallas has the horses on defense to combat that short, quick passing game. You have to attack the Dallas secondary deep and the Eagles didn't even attempt it despite Dallas jumping all the short routes early. The Cowboys will have much stronger opponents coming soon and I doubt the defense is going to look quite so good then.

**RC Note: I would note that the DAL defense is OK/good/mediocre. Not bad. Not great. But decent, improving. But the next 3 weeks is an OK defense with a nice offense to control possession facing CAR without CMC, NYG, and NE...three nice DST matchups. **

If my assessment is correct then they are probably a 10-11 game winner, should take the East and a #3 or #4 seed. They have a shot if everything goes right, but I still think they are just a couple players short of being a real power and Superbowl threat.

Fantasy Notes

--Let's start with Jalen Hurts (25-39 for 326, 2 TD/2 INT, 9-35-0). A lot of you are probably panicking right now because he got a slow start here, looked shaky at times, threw a couple of picks...stop it. Hurts is averaging 23.7 ppg or thereabouts, depending on your scoring system, and is the #3 or #4 QB right now. In his four starts in 2020 he averaged 23 ppg. There is nothing to worry about!

It's easy to forget, but fantasy is not the same thing as real football. Players can be great for one and not the other. Hurts is a good real life QB, but that's not what ultimately matters for us. What matters is he's scoring points and he's doing it under crap circumstances. So it doesn't matter one bit if he gets all his points in garbage time as his team is getting blown out. What matters is he's scoring. That's it.

As for his real life skills, yeah, he's just fine. He was dealing with having half his offensive line out, a bad game plan, a billion penalties putting him in long down situations, and receivers dropping passes all over the place. He wasn't perfect but who is? Even Patrick Mahomes throws stupid interceptions at times. It happens. There's nothing wrong with Hurts. He played his ass off here and looks just fine.

--It's hard to use any Philly pass catcher with any consistency for fantasy, but if I was going to it would be DeVonta Smith (3-28-0/6). He's still getting his legs under him (and he's battling a lot of the same issues Hurts is), but I expect him to improve as the season goes on. He played a good emerging corner in Trevon Diggs, but if Sirianni had just called for a double move or two Smith could have smoked Diggs more than once. Unfortunately all he got to run was short slants literally all night and, unsurprisingly, Diggs figured this out and started jumping every route.

--Jalen Reagor (5-53-0/8) has been way more involved than I thought and looks pretty good. I haven't seen any flashes of the speed he's supposed to possess, but again, this coaching staff hasn't even tried to use him on any deep or medium passes. It's all short stuff so far. He's unusable for fantasy right now but could suddenly find some WR3 use if this offense ever opens up.

--The best looking WR for Philly so far has been Quez Watkins (2-46-0/2). Unlike Reagor, Watkins has flashed his speed at times on bubble screens. I'd like to see them get him the ball more. He definitely belongs as the 3rd guy, but they ought to get him a few more looks than he's been getting.

--Dallas Goedert (2-66-0/4) is their best TE but he's still splitting too much with Zach Ertz (4-53-1/7). They really should have come off their asking price and just traded Ertz for what they could get. Goedert will have his moments but there's no predicting what games that will be. If Ertz gets hurt though it could be game on.

--Miles Sanders (2-27-0, 3-28-0/4) had an awful fantasy game, but it's hard to score points when you only get 2 carries. That was a function of the Eagles getting behind so quickly. He should be back to his usual workload soon. Not sure that's worth much, but then you shouldn't have him rostered anyways.

--Everyone was so excited after Dak Prescott (21-26 for 238 yards, 3 TD/0 INT, 9-6-0) threw for over 400 yards against Tampa, and the logic went like this: well, if Dak threw for 400 yards every game before he got hurt in 2020, and he threw for 400 yards here, then he must be going to throw for 400 yards every game! Fantasy for most people is only what happened the past 2-3 games and sometimes less.

Of course, now he's gone two straight games with under 30 attempts (you didn't really think he was going to throw 58 times every game did you?) and less than 250 yards and people are suddenly panicking. But Ross, what if he does this EVERY game? Take a deep breath. Everything is going to be ok. Dallas is adapting their game plan to attack the weakness of whatever the defense is doing. It's going to lead to a few weeks where Dak doesn't score a billion points. It's also going to lead to a few games where he goes crazy passing and wins you your matchup by himself.

--As Dak goes, so goes Amari Cooper (3-26-0/4) and CeeDee Lamb (3-66-0/3). Again, don't worry about them. It's been a slow couple of weeks for Amari, but he's going to get his. He's averaging 8.7 targets per game right now, a full season pace of 147 targets. He's fine. I also didn't see any lingering effects from his rib injury. He's moving around well and looks fully healthy. In fact, he's a great buy low candidate right now if you can find a nervous owner. He's a WR1-1.5 all day long.

Lamb has only had the one bad game so far, but everything I said about Amari goes for him as well.

--Ezekiel Elliott (17-95-2, 3-21-0/3) has a lot of nervous owners as well, and this one I understand a little better. Tony Pollard (11-60-0, 1-5-0/1) has been a lot more involved than past years and looks quite good. The thinking is that they are in a split and Zeke is no longer a workhorse, therefore you need to sell off as fast as you can.

Pump the breaks on that a little. Let's get some context on what's going on here.

Here's the snap counts for each player through 3 weeks:

Week 1: Zeke 70, Pollard 20

Week 2: Zeke 44, Pollard 21

Week 3: Zeke 54, Pollard 29

And their number of touches:

Week 1: Zeke 11 carries, 2 catches, Pollard 3 carries, 4 catches

Week 2: Zeke 16 carries, 2 catches, Pollard 13 carries, 3 catches

Week 3: Zeke 17 carries, 3 catches, Pollard 11 carries, 1 catch

Elliott is still on the field 65-70 percent of the time, and in the week where the Cowboys barely ran the ball it was Zeke taking the lion's share of the carries. These past two weeks Pollard has gotten over 10 carries each time, but Zeke still got 16+ carries and he's been much more efficient with them than he has in years past. He averaged 8.4 ypc against the Chargers and 5.5 ypc against the Eagles. He also has 3 TD's to Pollard's 1.

Zeke is an RB1 all day. Now he's probably not going to lead the league in scoring or be the overall #1, but he's still getting very strong production and is a solid play every single week. There's no threat to his numbers from Pollard. They can co-exist.

--As for Pollard he's suddenly become a viable flex play in certain weeks. I don't think you can plug him in every week just yet, but I think the way to play it is to figure out which defenses Dallas is likely to try their run-heavy approach on and play him against those teams. The pattern so far has been the Cowboys run against two high safety defenses and pass against single high safety defenses, but it's possible that changes as teams begin to adjust to what Dallas is doing.

--Dalton Schultz (6-80-2/7) had himself a huge game out of nowhere, but I don't think you can count on this going forward. He and Blake Jarwin (2-14-0/2) are still splitting snaps. Maybe it was something Kellen Moore was targeting in the Philly defense or maybe just what was available. Let's see if Schultz gets another heavier workload to separate from Jarwin in the offense.

IDP Notes

--RC wasn't kidding about Javon Hargrave (6 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 tfl)! That guy is playing out of his mind right now. He is a huge man just pushing people around, but also has surprising quickness to close the gap to the QB. He was eating Connor Williams alive all game. As a DT he's averaging 6 tackles per game right now to go along with 4 sacks! Those are DPOY type numbers.

--Safety Anthony Harris (14 tackles) has 24 tackles the last two games and LB Alex Singleton (10 tackles) has 29 on the year. Singleton is the most consistent guy for Philly at linebacker.

--Cowboys rookie DT Osa Odighizuwa (4 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 1 tfl) had a nice game himself but his was more the product of an injured Eagles line than anything else. He's playing well, but I haven't seen anything super amazing yet.

Snap Counts of Interest

54 = Ezekiel Elliott

29 = Tony Pollard

53 = Dalton Schultz

43 = Blake Jarwin

57 = DeVonta Smith

50 = Jalen Reagor

38 = Quez Watkins

34 = Dallas Goedert

30 = Zach Ertz

35 = Miles Sanders

18 = Kenneth Gainwell

R.C. Fischer

FFM

01 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 3: Rams 34, Bucs 24

I will give credit where credit is due – the Rams won this game/earned it…they were the better team. No nuisance about it.

Of all the storylines in the NFL in 2021, the Sean McVay-Matt Stafford 50 Shades of Gray torrid love story is currently my single least favorite. I’m not 100% sure why, but it has completely turned me off on McVay and not got me onboard with Stafford – but credit to them, three weeks in, they are right and I am wrong (so far)…and they are adding extra hot sauce by every announcer regaling us with the story of them meeting on vacation and falling instantly in love, and now here they are with their figurative tongues down each other’s throats every Sunday on my television.

It may be that I just hate love. It may be that I want to watch the world burn, but I think it’s more these announcers/analyst’s telling the story with such whimsy…that they’re so delighted at the McVay-Stafford union – never mind everyone in the league ignored and dismissed Matt Stafford for a decade…now, it’s a quick revision of history/a 180 that they always really loved Stafford…and now Sean McVay is the genius wizard who got to the top of Mt. Stafford first before his buddy Kyle Shanahan did.

Hope Jared Goff and Jimmy Garoppolo feel like total $#!%, because McVay and Shanahan spend their offseason trying to chase a new QB, and then telling us all about it. Next year’s Shanahan-Aaron Rodgers reunion story will be sickening, I’m sure.

And let me say this about the golden boy, Sean McVay -- if you want me to eat healthy on my lunch break, I can respect that. But if you’re pushing me shitty canned soup as the answer – it’s why I can’t fully trust you on this Matt Stafford thing. Don’t yell at me about eating fries if your solution is processed mystery meat and noodles in a saline solution that is still ‘fresh’ 20 years after being canned. Sean McVay, I want you to stop lying to me about food and stop showing up to my party with your arm around Matt Stafford…I get it, you’re (3-0) with him. You’re winning. You’re a genius.

Oh, how I wish McVay sprinted off at halftime in his enthusiasm and tripped over someone and face planted halfway to the locker room.

But that’s just me. https://youtu.be/BbPiIwFOQtU

Stafford was good here. The Rams played with intensity. The Rams D pressured Brady all game and the O-Line kept the pressure off Stafford. The Bucs were OK, but they couldn’t match the intensity and focus and execution of the Rams. I’m sure Bruce Arians has been a joy in this week’s practices…

The Rams face Arizona this week, the winner goes to (4-0) and potentially lays claim to ‘best team in the NFC’. If the Rams win, that’s all we’ll hear…and the season is over (for the analysts), might as well skip to the Rams in the Super Bowl. If the Cardinals win, then it will be still debatable for the media…they are SO locked in on the Rams. Dallas is ‘America’s Team’. The 2021 Rams are ‘The Media’s Team’…and thus I hate them, naturally, for it.

I think the Rams might be the best team in the NFC, but Tampa, Dallas, Arizona, Green Bay and maybe Minnesota (when playing at home) are in that discussion as well. It’s the Rams v. Cardinals for the NFC West title, to be determined in January/Weeks 17-18, not October.

Tampa Bay will be fine, but probably not going back to the Super Bowl…it’s hard to repeat for any team. I’d pick the Bucs over the Rams if a rematch magically happened in a few weeks. This might be the chip the Bucs needed…the wake-up call to spur the defending champs. Tampa Bay is not the clear best team in the NFC, and now they know at least one NFC team isn’t afraid of them when/if they meet again. If the Bucs lose to the Patriots in that emotional game this week…then I think the Bucs mini-tailspin has begun. If they smash NE, then all is well.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Sony Michel (20-78-0, 3-12-0/4) laid down a gauntlet in this game. A gauntlet to Darrell Henderson that Michel might be the better back for L.A.

Now, you can debate that last statement…but if it’s close to true, then you know who is going to have a Goomah on the side from Stafford? Sean McVay…with Michel. Sean McVay has never met a camera or microphone he didn’t love to blather on about football. Trading for Michel…that’s a McVay approved move, and he is going to be in love with it working out in the public eye. Plus, McVay hates Darrell Henderson.

However, I’ve not really seen McVay go wild talking about Sony Michel post this game. I thought McVay would be talking up a storm on him post-game/this week…but he has not, so I am not ready to say a Michel takeover is underway.

Henderson supposedly is going to play Week 4, per McVay…but McVay said it’s not 100% (at this point), so we have to assume Henderson is still banged up to some degree. If they hold Henderson out, it’s another opportunity for Michel to put down tape to seize the role.

Michel looked more like Cam Akers (the last two games) than Henderson, to me…but I don’t see evidence that McVay’s heart has landed there/with Michel…yet. Considering this was Michel working against the NFL’s elite run defense…I thought Michel was very good, and worthy of being the lead back going forward…and I don’t believe McVay is totally sold out to Henderson, but we’ll see soon enough.

 -- Five things about Rams receivers…

1) Everyone knows Cooper Kupp (9-96-2/12) is getting the ball from Stafford, but no one can stop it. The West Coast Rodgers-to-Davante is Stafford-to-Kupp. It’s a guaranteed top 3-5 PPR WR output for FF 2021, and beyond.

You want to take advantage of a Kupp holder (get it) who is (1-2) or (0-3)/a team with issues where you take your really good WR off a good Week 3/good 2021 run so far (like the #8 PPR WR in the game right now, Deebo Samuel) and add a 2nd decent thing the trade partner needs (usually some ‘RB depth’, because their ‘RBs are killing them’)…like Miles Sanders or David Montgomery maybe to try and pry Kupp loose.

Kupp is worth the investment…worth the you trading up for.

2) Robert Woods (3-33-0/6) is thus screwed here…Stafford barely looks for him. Don’t be surprised if he’s traded at some point if he becomes a malcontent. Do not think of buying Woods low here.

3) Van Jefferson (4-42-0/6) has become a starter in the WR trio. It’s only a matter of time before he’s FF scoring past Woods. But that means WR3-4 type work right now because it is congested for targets after Kupp…if Woods gets moved, then  it’s Van time as a solid WR2.5 in PPR. You’re better off with Jakobi Meyers on that same vibe today, potentially.

4) DeSean Jackson (3-120-1/5) is running as the #4 WR…only played 32% of the snaps. That seems to be his role…limited snaps, but a purposed weapon. If you play in leagues with distance TD bonuses…he’s not a crazy flex thought in the bye weeks ahead.

If you are running with Stafford as your #1 QB…there might be weeks you want to stack Stafford-DJax, because you’re way down after TNF or 1pmET games, and need to deploy this West Coast stack for upside point hopes.

5) I was all about Tyler Higbee (5-40-1/5) in 2020 (because of that magical late 2019 showing) and got burned by it.

I was anti-Higbee to start FF 2021 because – why would the Rams use Higbee now with all the WR firepower back and then some? Well, they’re using him decently…not great, but decently. And Higbee is so talented…it’s going to work to be a TE1 in that #6-12 TE range this season. I bet like every other week he pops, then is lowly targeted and then back-and-forth he goes depending on the opponent.

 -- Let’s finally talk about the Bucs here…

Just a blanket statement – Tom Brady (41-55 for 432 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 3-14-1) played near picture perfect QB play here. He was under assault for the first time in a long time, but he hung in the pocket…he made excellent anticipation throws under pressure…his mechanics are impeccable…his vision is still at his peak.

Brady has no run game and doesn’t care because he wants to set all the passing records. And he probably will. Brady might beat Mahomes-Rodgers-Allen-Herbert in stat output this season…beat them in pass attempts, yards, and TDs. He’s throwing at will and without conscious or coaching restriction.

All three Bucs starting WRs are going to produce, and Rob Gronkowski (4-55-0/8) might lead all TEs in TDs this season and be a guy who challenges the top 3 TEs for FF. This down game is probably your last chance to get in on him at a reasonable price…mild injury plus down FF week…this is your last chance, probably. If you want it…and unless you have Kelce-Waller, you want it.

 -- All the Bucs RBs are terrible running the ball…but note Gio Bernard (9-51-1/10) isn’t running the ball. Gio was finally the guy (in this game) I was looking for back in the preseason…three weeks after I hoped for it, two weeks since I dropped him most places.

Gio can be the new James White for FF, now that White is gone for 2021…but game flow rules. White was an every game plan…Gio is a certain situations plan, at this point.

However, because RoJo and Fournette are struggling – there might be a window for Gio to get more involved in general ahead, maybe taking 5+ carries a game and on the field more for dump pass work. Worth a last PPR FF-roster spot on the bench look to see if it happens, maybe?

 -- Let’s talk Rams defense…

LB Kenny Young (10 tackles, 1 sack, 3 TFLs) was straight fire in this game. Really excellent work here from their new main man in the middle. An LB1 ROS, potentially.

I don’t know what position Jalen Ramsey (8 tackles) plays anymore, but it’s not shutdown corner.  

The three most predominant places/positions/alignments that I saw Ramsey playing in this game (which follows it happening last week as well), listed in order of where I saw him most:

(1) Linebacker, whether in a 3-man, or 2-man linebacking set. I’m not kidding.

(2) DB…kinda safety…occasionally a corner, but no on anyone specifically just playing a section of the field.

(3) Rush end…lined up off the EDGE as an OLB floater and blitzing the backfield a couple of times.

Nowhere in there did I list ‘shutdown corner’.

This change means two things…

1) No elevated risk for the opposing #1 WR of being shutdown like the past, I guess (unless they deploy Ramsey on special/certain WRs). I suppose DeAndre Hopkins is fine this week?

2) Ramsey is listed a CB…or DB for IDP, but is playing like a ‘joker’ linebacker/safety combo – which means he has the capability and situation to be the #1 IDP CB (not DB, but top CB) scorer for Fantasy this year, because he’s really not a corner…he’s a linebacker? Say it out loud, it’s weird – Jalen Ramsey is more a linebacker, than a shutdown corner.

He’s averaging 6.7 tackles, 0.67 TFLs, and 0.67 PDs per game through 3 weeks.

Last season, in its entirety, Ramsey had 44 total tackles. He has 20 so far in three games.

Side DST note: The Rams-DST has tough matchups with ARI and SEA the next two weeks, and then DET-HOU-TEN -SF after that is a nice run.

 -- But the defense with the most excellent FF matchups coming up is – the Buccaneers-DST.

Weeks 4-8, they face: Mac J., Brissett, Hurts, Dalton?, and Winston.

A Week 9 BYE, then Heinicke, Dan Jones, Wentz, Ryan, Josh Allen, Winston, Darnold, Z. Wilson.

You can run with the Bucs-DST from Weeks 4 to the end of the season, except for Week 9 bye and Week 14 vs. BUF. Arguably the best DST schedule the rest of the season.

Snap Counts of Interest:

57 = Woods

53 = Kupp

50 = Van J

21 = DJax

48 = Michel

14 = Funk

33 = Gio

26 = Fournette

12 = RoJo

R.C. Fischer

FFM

01 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 3: Titans 26, Colts 16

Well, I guess I’d sum up this game by saying – the Titans were OK/fine, but the Colts are so corrupted on the O-Line and have such a mediocre defense…that Tennessee got the early lead, and the Colts were helpless to ever catch-up/seize the game at any point.

The Titans lost A.J. Brown and Julio Jones for most/all the 2nd-half…and the Colts couldn’t really stop the obvious run game nor did they take advantage much of the CFL/XFL WRs the Titans were throwing at them.

The Titans are now (2-1) and likely to win the AFC South, not because they’re great…but because they are OK and play in the worst division in football. The Titans should get to 10 wins…and no other AFC South team will likely be able to get there.

The Colts are (0-3) and their season is almost over. It’s somewhat unfair because they’ve lost so much of their O-Line so early that they’ve fallen into a hole they probably can’t get out of. Indy needs to win this week (not assured) and Tennessee needs to lose to the Jets (not likely, but not crazy) to get back in it.

Because the Colts schedule is pretty soft overall, they could make a run when their O-Line guys get healthy…but they may be too far out to pull it off.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- There’s one big revelation from this game…a continuation from Weeks 1-2, but it’s becoming painfully obvious…Michael Pittman (6-68-0/12) is the OBVIOUS #1 look for Carson Wentz.

And just being the top look for any QB is not always FF money (just ask DeVonta Smith or Marquez Callaway among others), but in this case…Pittman looks like a million bucks every game this season. He looks like and is working like a tough, dominant #1 WR, and we thought he had that potential coming out of USC…and now he is showing it.

I believe Pittman has PPR WR1 possibilities for the rest of the season. And the exciting thing about that is…you could trade for Pittman as a back-end WR2-2.5 this week probably…or wait to get past this week if/when Xavien Howard shuts him down, and then chase him even cheaper.

I’m very impressed by what I see here with Pittman the past 2-3 weeks…and I’m geeked about trying to get him in Fantasy, but I will try to be patient because it could be cheaper/easier next week. I don’t want this to be another ‘this guy is good’ name that doesn’t create any energy.

There’s been three players I’ve gotten a ‘revelation’ on/excited about going into Week 4, ones that I’ve been pushing for as ‘now is the time to act’…because it’s better than ‘they’re good’…and costly (to varying degrees) but still undervalued. Guys who can change FF fates…ones that really standout for me as I’ve watched Week 3 games back and looked at the data and seen the deals happening…

Mike Williams (still get-able, some owners still don’t fully believe what’s happening here)

James Robinson (deeper talk on the Tuesday Video Q&A, available to listen/watch on demand 2 minutes after show finishes for 30 days – his O-Line is the key)

Now add…

Michael Pittman (who would come the cheapest of all of them by far…like/example Deebo for Pittman + ____ item in 2-for-1, or mixed/hidden into a 2-for-2 deal – and this is more PPR desired where the other two are all formats, but Pittman has value in all formats as well but I think this is going to be more of a PPR event/undervalue).

 -- Speaking of the Indy O-Line…

Jonathan Taylor (10-64-0, 1-8-0/1) looks great. Nothing wrong with him, but defenses focus on him when he’s in…and there’s usually nowhere to run. Taylor really had some nifty plays here, but Indy gets down and running with JT has been a slog with O-Line issues…and then Nyheim Hines (6-25-1, 5-54-0/6) showing up tends to soften the 8-man boxes (as they don’t worry about him as much) and Hines moves the ball better, oddly, than JT does it seems – it’s the defenses attention causing the optical illusion, but you can’t blame the Colts for going with it).

Taylor looks fine, but he’s up against a roadblock of a disrespected QB and all the O-Line injuries right now with the defenses focusing on him. You have to just suffer through, and hope Taylor starts to get FF output. Marlon Mack being traded/cut soon helps a bit.

JT is not a buy low or sell high, he’s a hold and pray.

 -- If Julio and A.J. are out Week 4, who the H is Ryan Tannehill going to throw to?

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (4-53-1/4) is the favorite, because he’s a starter already – but he’s not that great and now you’re asking him to take on top coverage.

Chester Rogers (1-6-1/2) might be more the answer…a reliable veteran WR.

Cameron Batson (1-13-0/1), I think is the most talented of the three but is probably the 3rd most likely option here.

Really, none of them appeal. Tennessee will probably throw 20 times and run 40-60 times and try and subdue the Jets. And of the throws, Derrick Henry and the combination of TEs might be the leading targets.

 -- The Titans snagged DE Ola Adeniyi (4 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 3 QB hits) from the Steelers this offseason, and he has 2.5 sacks his last 2 games and 4 QB hits…all in only 40 snaps played this season.

He played 8 snaps Week 1. Then just 3 snaps Week 2 (and got a sack). Mike Vrabel said he earned more playing time this past week), so 29 snaps Week 3 (48%) and he got 4 tackles with 3 QB hits along with 1.5 sacks here…granted it’s the corrupted Colts O-Line.

I isolated on him some on this re-watch…he’s a try hard, instinctual pass rusher but not overly gifted (physically). But he faces the bad Jets O-Line this week, so maybe another sack or two Week 4 coming? We’ll see. Just noting his QB hits per snaps played are off the charts for The Computer right now, so I’m at least spotlighting it.

 -- Just a side note…the Titans-DST is really not bad…promising. They got pushed by Arizona and Seattle Weeks 1-2, not a crime. They held Indy down here. Consider they are OK but have JAX 2x, IND, NO, HOU 2x, NE, PITT, SF, MIA as 10 of their next 14 opponents. They have the Jets this week!

Week 6 BUF, Week 7 KC, Week 9 LAR is a nightmare…then all solid/favorable matchups around that the rest of the season.

Snap Counts of Interest:

53 = Westbrook-Ikhine

34 = Julio

28 = Chester Rogers

27 = Batson

08 = AJ Brown

44 = Swaim

37 = MyCole Pruitt

21 = Hudson

34 = Hines

29 = J Taylor

57 = Pittman

54 = Pascal

49 = Parris

35 = Doyle

28 = Alie-Cox

R.C. Fischer

FFM

30 September 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 3:  Browns 26, Bears 6

Via the highlights and analysts who only watch highlights, the game narrative was: the Browns dominated the sad Bears…and the Browns are probably going to the Super Bowl, and Matt Nagy is a moron…has now finally been confirmed for them.

First off, Matt Nagy was confirmed a moron years ago by us…when the Bears were winning. The problems with Nagy were beyond obvious…but he’s NOW the fall guy for ‘breaking’ the media’s favorite QB from this draft (Fields), so now Nagy has got to go.

If Nagy has ruined Fields…where are the people wondering if he also ruined Mitchell Trubisky? Imagine a coach so bad, he’s ruined two 1st-round pick QBs – but it’s true.

The media can’t have it both ways…they can’t be professing Nagy-love and genius for 2-3 years, and now think he’s the stupidest coach in football. No harm in being wrong and changing a position – but this is them constantly wrong, and constantly not even acknowledging it. And they will not apply their stance change to the Trubisky situation.

Actually, the media can have it both ways…the football media like the political/world news media are a joke, a fraud…and their face-painting, home-team-worshipping audience laps it up without question or memory. The football media is never scrutinized…instead they are adored as holier than thou because they have football jobs, and you don’t. And if any of them try to get out of line, question anything taboo…then they are banished from the club. You will get Steve Mariucci, Michael Irvin, and Golic and Collingsworth royal lineage to tell you about football…and you will like it. Bill Simmons…you are banished. Colin Cowherd got more in line when he saw the writing on the wall/where his bread is buttered.

I would say the football community is like a club, but it’s really like a cult…and ex-players are your high priests/commentators to tell you what to think. The cult members/fans happily listen to their overlords and marvel at their football words, and wish they were them…while they wear jerseys of them. Meanwhile, the billionaire owners at the top of the cult laugh on their third yacht as people give over hard earned money just to have the rights to buy season tickets so that they can sit in subzero temps in Green Bay to watch a game and pay $47 for a beer and a hot dog while doing it…and their lives couldn’t be anymore complete..

The media treats their football audience like idiots, because most of their audience is…sad, but true. It’s a religion, and their devotees will accept anything pushed down to them.

I love football…to bet on it and play Fantasy Football off of it. I don’t worship any of their teams (unless I bet on them that week) or players, besides Nick Foles..and that one year of David Johnson. 

Where was I?

Oh, it’s hilarious that this game was the full trigger turn on Matt Nagy…while simultaneously confirming the Browns are still their ‘smart’ Super Bowl pick.

Did you know this game was 3-3 tied with 0:30 to go in the 1st-half? Did you know it was only 13-6 going into the 4th-quarter? The Bears played about as bad as a team could…because they have no O-Line (or talent, or coaching), but the Browns couldn’t really capitalize on it for three quarters and were on thin ice for Chicago getting back in it…until the ice broke, and the Browns pulled away in the 4th-quarter.

For most of this game, I watched it thinking – these are two of the worst, most dull teams in football.

The Browns are now (2-1) and may be the AFC North favorites, but if they lose to Minnesota this week (and I think they will), then get ready for a Browns mini-collapse – the Browns are set to lose their next three games (MIN-LAC-ARI) and then hosting Denver Week 7 sitting (2-4) with the season possibly on the line. I’m not so sure the Browns will win the AFC North…but all the other teams there are weak as well. (9-8) might get the job done…by any of them.

If the Bears lose this week to Detroit (and I think they might), then we might see a one-two punch of firings the next couple of weeks…either GM then HC, or HC then GM. The Bears might be the worst run team in all of football. Terrible recent drafts, ridiculous free agent signings…and an ever-worsening product on the field. The Bears are (4-10) in their last 14 games. And this was a (expanded) playoff team last year!

All the while, the media protected their Nagy…by blaming Trubisky. That mistake in judgment is coming home to roost any week now. It will bring on yet another 3–5-year rebuilding plan necessary. Enjoy that, Bears fans.  

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- So, was this Justin Fields’s (6-20 for 68 yards, 0 TDs/0 INTs, 3-12-0) fault? How did he do?

Under the circumstances, he did OK. It would be easy to blame him but like with Zach Wilson if you’re under assault every drop back to pass…and you’re constantly running for your life, there’s only so much you can do.

When under assault, Big Ben just dumped every pass to Najee Harris last week…it was a signal he had given up on having any time in the pocket. Zach Wilson tries to make plays under assault…and turns it over a bunch. Fields took another route -- he was likely so not-trying to throw interceptions to protect his rep/stats that he just tried to escape or just ate the sacks.

Fields has no time, so the WRs can’t get open in Nagy’s ultra-ridiculous offense. Andy Dalton is more experienced, so Nagy will go to him again…but it won’t work. Nick Foles is better than all of them and is put as 3rd-string, further confirming how stupid Nagy is.

Now, the media is fully on the Nagy is an idiot bandwagon after 9 sacks allowed to their golden boy (Fields), so the clock is ticking loudly on Nagy’s head coaching career.

 -- You have to now FF-avoid everything in Chicago, until a new coach is named in -season…but even then…

This team is collapsing as the O-Line craters.

David Montgomery (10-34-0, 2-21-0/4) looks great…but has nowhere to run.

Allen Robinson (2-27-0/6) is a top NFL WR, but he’s doomed here…his game needs a QB throwing medium and deep, but there’s no time for that with this O-Line. You only can hope ARob is traded in-season to generate fresh FF-value ahead.

The sky is falling in Chicago. Get away from any of their FF players while you still can. Montgomery is seen as an RB2, priced as an RB2, but in this offense he has the risk of more RB3 weeks than RB1 weeks…unless this O-Line magically transforms ahead. Montgomery might be an RB2 on volume, but if it’s a bunch of 22-80-0 lines…then how valuable is it?

 -- I had to laugh watching this game… The one thing that has brought the Browns down time-and-time again is Odell Beckham (5-77-0/9) on the field with Baker. Why? Because Baker wants to force it to the chief complainer/his friend and it is usually not open or effective, nor does OBJ care…but it doesn’t stop Baker from pushing it.

One of the reasons this game was just 13-6 going into the 4th-quarter was because of Baker looking too much at OBJ (OBJ 9 targets, the other 4 WRs had 8 targets combined)…but then they started getting back to the RB heavy game late-3rd/in the 4th-quarter, and Kareem Hunt (10-81-1, 6-74-0/7) put this offense on his back and got the offense flowing again.

 -- What was interesting about the Browns offense in this game…they tried to get Demetric Felton (2-13-0/3) going early. But, then like most awful O-Cs…they just abandoned it after a quick push.

It’s sad, because Felton ran a wheel route and was wide open down the sidelines for a 40+ yard TD…but Baker threw the pass way off and blew it. Soon after, Felton got a nice swing pass out of the backfield and went for 10+ yards, but it got called back. We almost had a Felton 4-60-1/5 game…just from the 1st-half, and if it hit like that then they would’ve probably dealt him more work because it was ‘working’. It ‘worked’ just Baker blew it…and then they just quit with him in the 2nd-half.

In the end, it was only Felton coming in for a few 3rd-downs (just 11 snaps played) early with specific plays and then barely seen in the 2nd-half, as Hunt-Chubb sucked the oxygen from this backfield for Felton to die of lack of oxygen.

 -- The Browns defense held the Bears to 6 points and had 9 sacks…amazing DST scoring. The Chiefs had no issue with this Browns defense Week 1, as expected. But Houston rolled right through it Week 2…until Tyrod got hurt. This Week 3 event is probably not a turn…just a lucky schedule break to get the Bears dying here.

Cousins-Herbert-Kyler the next 3 weeks? No way.

Snap Counts of Interest:

53 = Peoples-Jones

52 = OBJ

40 = Higgins

28 = Schwartz

11 = Felton

40 = Chubb

33 = Hunt

50 = Njoku

49 = Hooper

33 = Bryant

44 = Mooney

40 = ARob

34 = Byrd

43 = Kmet

07 = Graham

Ross Jacobs

FFM

30 September 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 3: Raiders 31, Dolphins 28 

The Dolphins jumped out to an early 14-0 lead after Derek Carr threw a pick 6 under pressure and Malcolm Brown got a huge running lane for an easy TD. After that the Raiders settled down and just methodically started picking apart the Dolphins. They would score the next 25 points while the Dolphins struggled to move the ball at all and it looked like the game was over.

Miami managed to get a FG to make it a one score game and only got the tying TD off a somewhat questionable pass interference call that gave them a 1st and goal. The two teams would trade field goals and the Raiders finally locked it up well into OT with another FG.

The final score says this was a close game, but it wasn't, not really. The Raiders were significantly better than the Dolphins here. I'm not sure how good they are...I think they are decent but overrated but it's hard to say at this point. They beat the Ravens after looking like the worse team most of the night. They beat the Steelers who were missing multiple defensive starters. And now they've beaten the Jacoby Brissett led Dolphins who are struggling to move the ball at all.

I have to give the Raiders credit. They are playing hard and with a ton of energy. The defense always looks really fired up. It's working for now. But the schedule isn't easy ahead and I just can't help but be skeptical. They are giving up 24 ppg right now and that's to some less than stellar offenses. There's hope that there might be something more but I don't think so. Their own offense is scoring 30 ppg, but I have a hard time believing that's going to stick. I don't see them dominating anyone. They are scrappy and Carr keeps firing away though so who knows. If I had to take a guess, I'd say they are going to finish somewhere around 10 wins or so. The AFC West looks absolutely loaded at this point.

The poor Dolphins. I don't feel bad for them one bit. Their decisions have led to this point. The personnel management has been pretty bad with this staff for years now and this is the result. It doesn't matter one bit that Tua is out because this offense is crap either way. The offensive line is bad, the backs are unathletic, and their wide receiver group is underwhelming at best. They put up 28 points, but 7 of that was the defensive pick 6 and the rest they really struggled to get against a weak defense. This is simply a bad offense, end of story. The defense is decent, especially against the pass, but they are still missing pass rushers and impact players outside of Xavien Howard. This is not a good team and they are going to be lucky to win 6 or 7 games this year...unless they trade for Deshaun Watson, which could happen any day now and would send the fantasy world into a tailspin. We'll discuss that more later.

‍

Fantasy Notes

--Derek Carr (26-43 for 386 yards, 2 TD/1 INT) continues his hot streak. He leads the league with 1,203 yards through 3 games, 400 ypg on average. It's not coming on a ridiculous amount of volume like Dak Prescott did last year either. No, Carr is playing really efficient, yet aggressive, football and is finding his receivers down the field. Hats off to him. He's going to finish among the league leaders in yards and TD's this year, but obviously won't keep up that 400 yard per game pace. Bet he's above 300 at the end of the year though. He's still somehow being overlooked or mistrusted and you can still find him available on the waiver wire in some leagues. Great #2 to have behind your starter.

--Everybody run out and get Peyton Barber (23-111-1, 3-31-0/5) because he had a 100 yard game and scored a TD! Please don't, I'm kidding. Just take a minute to go watch the tape because all you're going to see is an average RB taking a billion carries late against a defense that was worried about Carr air raiding them more. A full 25% of his yards came on one wide open run on the last drive of the game in OT. Barber wasn't even taking carries until 5 minutes left in the first half after Drake flopped and he wasn't even having success then. It looks good on the stat sheet though so I'm sure Gruden thinks he's a genius and will shove Barber another 20 carries this week against the Chargers. It might work too because LA has been letting teams waste time running on them while they clamp down on the passing game. Either way Josh Jacobs will be back soon and Gruden is reportedly very eager to have him, so this fairy tale is probably only going to last a week or two tops.

--I have to apologize for my repeated promotion of Bryan Edwards (3-89-0/5). I don't understand why, but he's been the 4th option in this passing game and I see absolutely no attempt to get him more integrated or push him as a main target guy. It doesn't make sense because he's on the field way more than any other WR. It's like the team wants to push him, they know how talented he is, but just forget about him during the course of the game. He only had 1 target halfway through this game (partly because Xavien Howard was on him much of the time) and only got a flurry of work late and in OT when the Raiders really needed a play down the field. Even as the 4th option he's still been over 80 yards in two games this year (albeit on 400 yards per game from Carr) on a mere 3-4 catches a game. It doesn't matter that he's their best receiver if Carr and Gruden don't attempt to actually get him the ball. Of course now that I'm getting out on him he'll probably blow up...

--As mentioned above Hunter Renfrow (5-77-1/6) has been used more than anybody but Waller despite receiving far fewer snaps than the other guys. When he's on the field Carr is looking at him 2nd if Waller isn't open and it's working. I imagine this starts to tail off as the season goes along, but I can't be sure. He works as a WR3 right now.

--Henry Ruggs (4-78-0/7) is starting to tick up a bit and it's not just the yards or targets. Carr was actually looking for him on purpose at times, unlike Edwards who is just a completely random option. 9 catches on 14 targets the last two games and averaging around 22 yards per catch. He might be trying to take over as the #2 option soon for what that's worth. I'm still not a fan. He reminds me too much of young Will Fuller at this point which means he's going to be inconsistent.

--I thought Kenyan Drake (8-24-0, 3-33-0/6) would get a bigger push with Jacobs out, but he wasn't having much success running so the team pivoted to Barber (who still wasn't having success until very late). He definitely blew his chance of grabbing a bigger piece of this backfield. He's still somewhat useful in ppr but just barely, a RB3/flex hope that he gets a TD.

--There's not much to say about the Dolphins. I really hope nobody drafted anyone from this team because they are really not good.

Jacoby Brissett (32-49 for 215 yards, 7-37-1) isn't really much different from Tua. He's got a stronger arm and can make throws Tua can't, but he is just so tame and risk averse that he never attempts anything more aggressive.

Myles Gaskin (13-65-0, 3-9-0/6) is still a volume reliant random ppr option that you hope gets a TD. His role might be even worse going forward as he actually started to cede some work to Malcolm Brown (7-31-1, 0-0-0/2) as we speculated during the pre-season.

None of the WR's are usable no matter if Brissett or Tua is starting so I'm not even going to cover it. Jaylen Waddle (12-58/13) has been reduced to catching 5 yard passes because teams just back up and don't let him go deep (and he doesn't have a QB that can throw deep anyways). Why bother drafting the super fast guy that's supposed to open up your offense and make it more dynamic if you aren't/can't use him that way? Stupid.

Mike Gesicki (10-86-0/12) did bounce back as I thought he might because he's a safe throw for Brissett. He's going to be a TE1 this year but probably somewhere in the 8-10 range.

--The one thing that could save this offense and team, at least in the short term, is if they trade for Deshaun Watson soon. Yes, it could still happen, and it's becoming more likely as Miami struggles offensively. They might soon grow desperate enough to make a move and there has been rumblings that Houston is starting to soften their stance on compensation. If/when this happens it's going to have a huge impact on fantasy.

Who would benefit most from Watson's presence on this team? Probably Will Fuller since he and Watson already have an established connection from Houston. Jaylen Waddle could get a boost too as then he would have a QB that could actually connect with him deep or in space. It's hard to speculate on this or try to stash Watson for redraft in case it happens because you only have so many spots, but if you're hurting at QB it might be worth it. Otherwise I probably wouldn't bother as there are still a lot of hurdles to getting the deal done, if it happens at all.

IDP Notes

--You know who's on fire for tackles? Denzel Perryman (14 tackles) is 3rd in the league behind Bobby Wagner and Eric Kendricks with 36 total. 10, 12, and 14 so far this year. This week he might be a little down with the pass heavy Chargers, but the next four weeks look sweet with the Bears, Broncos, Eagles, and Giants.

Snap Counts of Interest

73 = Jaylen Waddle

64 = DeVante Parker

51 = Will Fuller

43 = Myles Gaskin

34 = Malcolm Brown

63 = Bryan Edwards

48 = Henry Ruggs

43 = Hunter Renfrow

47 = Peyton Barber

36 = Kenyan Drake

R.C. Fischer

FFM

30 September 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 3: Ravens 19, Lions 17

What it must feel like to be a Lions fan after this game…not good.

Not only did the Lions lose on a record setting 66-yard FG by Justin Tucker, but a few plays right before that with only seconds remaining, the Ravens converted a 4th & 19 for like 30+ yards…which then allowed for the history-making moment. Two of the most improbable events converging to hand the Ravens the win.

Were the Lions the better team here? Not sure. I kinda zoned out rewatching it because it was so boring. The Ravens are one of my least favorite teams to watch in any week, for the past several years. The Lions right up there too.

I can tell you this, from the parts I wasn’t sleeping with my eyes wide open – these two teams aren’t very good.

The Lions have been scrappy…a near improbable comeback vs. SF Week 1. They had the Packers on the ropes for a half Week 2. Should’ve won here. Their time is coming (Week 4 v. CHI).

The Ravens should be (0-3) right now, but they are (2-1). Slipped by KC Week 2…lucked out here. This is a weak ‘good’ team.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- The big disappointment of Week 3 happened in this game…Ty’Son Williams (5-22-0, 0-0-0/1) didn’t get 15+ touches nor producing an RB1 week, as I believed he would.

The prior two weeks, Ty’Son was the starter, the main snap count guy, the main touch guy but splitting. An RB1 Week 1. An inch away from a TD and another RB1-like week in Week 2. Then…this mess of nothing.

Ty’Son started, but then came out for Latavius play #2…who then came out for Devonta Freeman play #3 (which was a sweet -3 yard run on 3rd-down by Devonta). And it just seemed to be that rotation all night. No one of them in for long or gaining any traction.

Ty’Son did play 29 snaps...to Murray’s 19…to Freeman’s 9.

It just seemed like when Ty’Son was in, Lamar would keep the ball for himself on the play action…or Ty’Son was in the game for the hurry up/passing downs and be wide open in the flat, and Lamar would chuck it down field.

On one hand, Ty’Son had the snaps and look of a #1 RB for the Ravens.

On the other hand, they made no effort to get him the ball…it’s like he wasn’t even there.

When he did get the ball – he looked great. I have no idea why the Ravens pulled up on this.

My feelings from here – I still think Ty’Son is:

(a) the most talented RB they have, not even close.

(b) the starter and main snap count RB…so, he has some respect here.

I’m willing to see another card dealt/another week of results before I panic. Three weeks in, two of them nice for Ty’Son, then this. If ‘this’ continues into Week 4…then next week I got some figuring out to do.

I’m a buyer on the cheap…like dirt cheap. If someone else drops him…I’m good putting him last on my bench to see what Week 4 brings. I still believe in Ty’Son, but I’m not starting him this week if I don’t have to.

 -- On the other side of the field…I wish I had D’Andre Swift (14-47-1, 7-60-0/7) in PPR. I’ve not been a huge fan, but he looked fantastic here – very quick…faster/more burst than I’ve ever seen with him.

What he’s becoming is – Anthony Lynn’s Midwest Austin Ekeler. And you want that for PPR leagues. However, he’s impossible to get because of the name and the recent results. I’ll keep an eye on to see if the market dips off a down game.

If Swift has some kind of groin injury…then it is only making him run faster somehow.

If you could trade Clyde Edwards-Helaire (off his good game that just happened) for Swift straight up or mixed in a deal…take Swift.

Swift has played 16 regular season games now in the NFL…65 catches, 1,167 total yards, 12 TDs.

CEH has also played 16 regular season games now in the NFL…41 catches, 1,327 total yards, 6 TDs

Also, note…this includes 2-3 games where Swift barely played/registered stats.

As an aside, James Robinson has played 17 regular season games…61 catches, 1,666 yards, 11 TDs

 -- The second most targeted WR for the Lions in this game was a tie between Cephus-Hodge-St. Brown-Benson…with one target each.

Kalif Raymond (6-68-0-10) had the other 10 targets thrown to Lions WRs.

Fells-Jamaal-Hockenson-Cephus-Hodge-St. Brown-Benson combined for 11 targets as a group, while Raymond got 10 for himself.

I guess we have to say Raymond is the Lions #1 WR?

…and probably on most every waiver wire right now…after waivers have cleared for most?

He looked OK here. Nice work on a few bubble screens. Spotty on medium/deep routes…but Goff was pushing it to him. I’m not sure if it was the matchup, or just – this is the WR Goff has decided to lean on. It’s a very tentative ‘this is their #1 WR’ guess. Not 100% sure this is a thing, but the data from this game suggests it is.

I thought it might be Trinity Benson (0-0-0/1) for Goff as we went, but there is no evidence of that developing right now.

 -- Marquise Brown (3-53-0/7) legit dropped 3 TDs passes, two on the same series…longer TD passes too. A near monster day turned into a nightmare.

If a Ravens running back fumbled, they might be out the rest of the game. Brown drops 14 points worth of passes…no problem. Here, get out there and take more targets!!

 -- The vaunted Ravens defense in 2021 YTD…

#26 in PPG allowed to opponents.

#24 in total yards allowed

Tied for 2nd-to-last in sacks

But the Ravens-DST is tracking as a DST1/a start for Week 4 vs. Denver across the national rankings for FF. We so get used to certain names being good on defense (BAL, PITT, SEA) that we don’t realize when they are struggling right under our noses.

In reverse, Arizona can’t be good at defense…or Cincy. It doesn’t feel right.

Snap Counts of Interest:

47 = Raymond

45 = Cephus

27 = St. Brown

24 = Trinity Benson

35 = Swift

31 = Jamaal

29 = Ty’Son

19 = Latavius

09 = Devonta