- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 5: Game Analysis: Steelers 38, Eagles 29
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
If I were a Steelers fan…I would start getting nervous.
The Steelers are undefeated but they’re lucky they’re not (2-2) at a minimum on the downside. Consider that they just played two of the worst operating teams in football right now in the past two weeks (HOU and PHI), and they had to come from behind late to win both games.
Week 3 against the Texans, Houston was the better team and Deshaun Watson looked pretty good for half+ of the game. That’s a ‘sign’ because Watson has looked pretty bad all season…but not against the Steelers.
Week 4 against the Eagles, the Steelers got up two+ scores and then let the Eagles/Wentz waltz right back in and gave Philly chances to win.
The good news…the Steelers find a way to put the hammer down and win. The bad news…the Steelers just beat three bad teams in-a-row (and scuffled with NYG opening week as well), struggled with all of them (DEN-HOU-PHI) and now go on to play better teams. Fortunately, for the Steelers, they play a 4th home game in-a-row Week 6…but against a suddenly VERY motivated Cleveland – and the return of Myles Garrett to face Pittsburgh. There’s going to be fighting going on in that one.
The Steelers are making bad QBs look good, and average WRs rack numbers. There’s a problem brewing here. The next three weeks will tell the tale – CLE, at TEN, at BAL. We are tracking the Steelers with 9-10 wins and a wild card at this point.
The Eagles fall to (1-3-1)…a half-game out of 1st-place in the NFC East. They face Baltimore this week to fall to (1-4-1), I’m sure. Weeks 7-8 hosting NYG then DAL will tell the tale of the Eagles season. The schedule ahead is pretty rough. We’re starting to track Philly for 5-7 wins this year, but closer to 5-6 wins…which puts them ‘in the thick of the race’ for the NFC East.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Obviously, we have to talk about Chase Claypool (7-110-3/11, 3-6-1). Six things…
1) I told you so.
It always feels good to type that. Our highest-rated 2020 WR prospect for the NFL Draft on College Football Metrics. Not our top-rated rookie WR for fantasy 2020…I thought he’d be too ‘blocked’ for the season by the very good starting trio.
He was too good to sit…kudos Mike Tomlin.
A couple weeks ago, I made the proclamation that we all needed to acquire him, grab him, whatever to get him on all FF rosters of Dynasty/Redraft and just sit on him. Those that did, now reap your rewards.
If I was right about Claypool…and I’m going to be right about Bryan Edwards and Devin Duvernay and Michael Pittman (other top WR prospect grades) – don’t lose sight of another WR we graded right up there at the top with Claypool – Denzel Mims. He's in a different/bad NFL situation, so I’m not as FF-excited…but sometimes the talent cannot be contained…as we are learning in Pittsburgh 2020.
2) This only happened because Diontae Johnson (1-0-0/1) got hurt early.
We must note the Diontae thing because after the game, Mike Tomlin rushed out to say that any of his WRs could have had that game…it was about matchups. It’s never the player, it's always the coaching, you see!!! Claypool could be a 50% snap share #4 WR Week 6. Consider that before trying to amend your sin of missing out prior by moving heaven and earth to get him this weel. I wouldn’t chase him this week at today’s prices. Let him have a down week and then see if you can weasel in.
As fast as Justin Jefferson rose…now the bloom is off the rose after a down week on national TV Sunday Night. It could happen with Claypool after a non-4 TD week or two.
As far as Diontae goes. He took a weird hit and got hurt legit, but this is becoming annoying with Diontae…and Mike Tomlin may start getting annoyed. Tomlin/Ben could think -- who needs Diontae when Claypool is a star. The rise of Claypool off the back (injury) of Diontae probably just chopped the legs out from under Diontae the next few weeks. The rising star, the giant targets…Diontae may see lesser targets ahead to give more to Claypool.
I’m not sure of that theory…it’s just thinking out loud.
3) Lost in all this – this could’ve been even more from CC…
Claypool made a terrific 33-yard catch along the sidelines, but he didn’t get his second foot down in time.
Claypool caught a 10-15-yard pass in this game, pushed the defender away and raced for a 42-yard TD. It was called back because of CC’s pass interference. It was the right penalty call, but in a season where formerly touchy penalties called are now legal in 2020 – it was almost another TD and 40+ more yards.
It’s silly to even do the fuzzy math, but for fun…imagine if these two catches stood and he went 9-163-4/12, 3-6-1)…5 TDs in a game ‘off the bench’?!!?!
4) Claypool…Ben’s new favorite?
I mention the ‘almost’ targets/catches above because I need to also mention – this was not a ‘matchup’ win/issue that sprung CC. This was Ben either attacking with Claypool or desperately throwing to Claypool even when other things were open in his field of vision…eschewing even an open JuJu a couple times in the end zone.
The past three games for PITT:
11 rec. (18 targets), 222 yards, 4 TDs = Claypool
15 rec. (18 targets), 129 yards, 1 TD = JuJu
10 rec. (16 targets), 83 yards, 0 TDs = Washington
Is it Claypool is a Ben fave? Is it Diontae gone so all the Diontae action over to his replacement? I think it’s that Claypool is now a Ben fave. Even if Claypool goes to the #4 WR spot…he’ll play a lot of snaps and be targeted nicely. Meaning, we can start him now for FF…with hold your breath confidence that Tomlin won’t screw him when Diontae is back.
5) The Fantasy Experts’ New Favorite WR!!!
Now, I get to be tortured this entire week. Tortured by FF analysts proclaiming their love and how ‘this is real’ and how ‘they always liked him’. I get to win/gloat here for a day and then watch as everyone takes credit for discovering him and showing you all kinds of acronym analytics as to why their system knew Claypool was going to be good all week.
Note, most of this will come from people who suggested Claypool move to tight end because he wasn’t a real good receiver in their scouting estimation.
All this will happen as I weep into my pillow quietly each night. A prophet is never welcome in his homeland.
6) What Happens Now…?
I suspect Claypool will be a #4 WR Week 6…but play a heavy amount of snaps. I hope I’m wrong about that, but I’m preparing like it will be so.
Week 2, when all PIT WRs were healthy…Claypool played 37% of the snaps, Washington 48%...Diontae-JuJu 80%+. That was when Claypool was still a ‘babe’. Diontae-JuJu-Washington will likely start Week 6, but Claypool will be in quickly and play more snaps than Washington Week 6, is my bet. And within a few weeks…Claypool will be playing starter snaps whether he starts or not.
If Diontae is out/hurt for Week 6 – Claypool will start and lead the team in targets/touches at WR again.
Claypool is too good to sit…unless Mike Tomlin is a Sean McVay-like fool, and you have to account for that. But this is beyond obvious for Tomlin. Don’t be surprised if JuJu Smith-Schuster is traded to the Jets or Eagles before the deadline.
-- Helping the Claypool valuation not get 100% in the FF-universe is the fact that Travis Fulgham (10-15-2/13) was huge (statistically) in the same game. It makes it seem to some that this game was just wacky and ‘who can you trust’ among these ‘outta nowhere’ WRs?
I know Chase Claypool. I scouted Chase Claypool extensively. I rated Claypool top of his class. You, sir…Mr. Fulgham, are no Chase Claypool.
Fulgham is a randomly solid NFL WR worker who had a terrific game. A couple things about this event:
1) Fulgham is not going to force Doug Pederson to sit Reagor-Jeffrey-DJax when they return. Nor is Wentz going heavy Fulgham when he has them + Dallas Goedert back.
2) Fulgham really played well here. He made some very nice catches in this game. He gave himself an NFL career of some sort with this tape. Nice job by him. My first thought of him, when first scouting his work at Old Dominion (and I thought his starting WR teammates were as good/better)– solid+ hands, professional-ish WR, lacking in NFL starter athleticism.
3) The Steelers have a huge problem on their hands if Travis Fulgham (via Wentz of all things) is going off on you. Specifically, Fulgham burned Mike Hilton repeatedly.
The Steelers went from top 10 in pass defense to #15 in yards per game allowed in a week – but understand that they’ve faced Daniel Jones, Jeff Driskel, fallen-Deshaun Watson, and Carson Wentz. I don’t think this pass defense is as good as people think. Part of the glory is the QBs they’ve faced so far.
-- What happened to Zach Ertz (1-6-0/6)?
You think you’re dying at TE ion fantasy? Who is doing well? Kelce and Waller on a consistent basis…Andrews and Kittle and Jonnu on a sporadic basis. You better hope Robert Tonyan is not going to expire too fast (spoiler alert: he probably will…like all the ‘of the moment’ TEs).
Jimmy Graham is looking better and better, no?
It’s a tough year at TE in Fantasy. Ertz has died…9 yards and 6 yards in a game the last two weeks…playing 95% of the snaps each game!!! What???
Making things worse…I saw Ertz open a few times in this game, in Wentz’s purview, but he threw to Fulgham in a tight window instead. The Ertz-Wentz love affair seems to be out of sync/over.
I’d get Dallas Goedert cheap and hope he returns Week 7 to be the old Ertz (and then Ertz maybe gets traded).
-- We live in a TE depraved world in 2020 where Eric Ebron (5-43-0/6) is a better ‘start’ for FF Week 6 than Zach Ertz.
We live in a universe where I am actually thinking those thoughts, and I HATE ERIC EBRON (as a player). Any TE port in a storm/anything is better than Tyler Higbee right now.
-- Quick note: Anthony McFarland (3-6-0) only got three touches here but showed a fresh spark running the ball…like he’s gotten over his initial nerves.
I’ve been pro-McFarland as a scout, then anti because he’s a knucklehead (talented knucklehead). I was dismissive of him here in Pittsburgh because Conner-then-Snell is the pecking order.
Well, I think I saw some early ‘Darrell Henderson’ runner attributes in McFarland here in this brief appearance (and he can be that kind of back). Very hidden, very stealthy…but I need more tape to get more excited. I’m shifting from dismissive-to-neutral/curiosity piqued on McFarland. In part, because I know Snell isn’t great and if/when Conner goes down…McFarland might seize a bigger role than I first thought. Very deep sleeper thoughts.
-- Big Ben (27-34 for 239 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT) is pacing for a career highs in…
Comp. Pct. at 69.9%
TD passes per game (2.25 per game).
BUT…it’s an 8-year low in passing yards per game (254.0).
Ben faces stiffer competition ahead in CLE-TEN-BAL…and the schedule gets great after that (except for another BAL matchup).
-- Miles Sanders (11-80-2, 2-19-0/4)…
I debated putting him on the ‘sell high’ list this week. He should be on at some level for the week. Sanders had a nice 74-yard TD run in this game…and 10 carries for 6 yards otherwise.
It’s too crappy an O-Line situation for him to thrive. Minus the long TD run, he has 52 yards rushing on his last 23 carries. BAL-NYG next two weeks is ROUGH.
Oh, the long TD…aided by the most obvious downfield holding of 2020, but it’s 2020 so it’s legal.
-- The Steelers-DST scares me, what I’m seeing, but…
Besides Week 8 at BAL and Week 12 at BAL…they have a smooth path of opponents until Week 14 at BUF. It’s an awesome schedule. Tennessee-DST might be a decent pairing with them later in the season.
-- The Eagles-DST comes into play now with Dallas having a QB change. The Eagles defense has been decent this year, but Weeks 7-10 they have NYG 2x and Dallas. The Giants and Jets are the juiciest matchups of any week for any defense.
Snap Counts of Interest:
57 = JuJu
53 = JWash
52 = Claypool
06 = Diontae
15 = Snell
05 = McFarland
48 = Hightower
46 = Fulgham
41 = Ward
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 5: Game Analysis: Cowboys 37, Giants 34
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
I thought I had this upset in the bag, early on. A quick 14-3 lead for NYG, playing energized ball…as the Cowboys were sleepwalking again…and then the next thing I know Dallas leads 24-20 with a TD right before the half.
The Giants kept getting on the verge of taking the lead but couldn’t quite get there in the 3rd-quarter. Then Dak went down and started hurriedly pointing at his leg. At my first glance of it as it was happening live…his calf looked weird, but I wasn’t sure if a pad or something was out of place or was his bone out of place in his calf area…I couldn’t process it in the first few seconds in. What was wrong? Then they did a close up on Dak grabbing his leg to move it and his foot was pointing the other direction almost – and then you knew this might cost him a year or more. Sad.
But being a heartless fantasy player and bettor…I instantly felt better about my NYG bet and any FF teams facing Dak for the week. Too soon? OK, I’m the only one who thought that way…OK, I’m the bad guy.
*Side note from this game: When Dak went down, everyone was rightfully concerned and saddened. I wanted to commend one Jason Garrett.
Jason Garrett, NYG O-C, former long-time Dallas HC…he went over to be near Dak during the time Dak was being tended to on the field. When it became obvious to everyone that ‘this was bad’, there was a moment of Garrett (standing next to Mike McCarthy) leaning over and patting McCarthy on the back in a moment of sympathy.
Two opponents on the field this day, but also McCarthy being the ‘new spouse’ married to your ex…the guy who replaced you in your top job as you took a demotion to another team (but all still millionaires, so -- how bad could it be?) – it had to be a bit awkward. But Garrett knew this was a bad moment for Dallas and McCarthy from a coaching perspective, and all that weirdness was set aside in a nice moment of compassion for his fellow man in the middle of a tight ball game involving these coaches all under fire for various reasons. Nice work, Mr. Garrett. Now, please get Evan Engram the ball more and I’ll give you a hug as well.
Dallas escapes with a win and jumps to a commanding lead of the NFC East at (2-3) but now has to try and close the deal this season with Andy Dalton. Probably not going to happen, but any team could win the NFC East. We are projecting Dallas for 6-7 wins…which seriously could win the division.
The Giants could’ve won and been a half-game out of 1st-place, and then a Dwayne Haskins-ing of Daniel Jones away from winning this division. The best defense in the NFC East may reside with NYG not Washington. Drafting Daniel Jones is going to cost this team 2020 and 2021, as they stick by him for ‘reasons’. If they’d offer a 1st-round pick in 2021, for a 2nd-round pick + Jalen Hurts…and then install Hurts as a starter to change the offense to ‘like the Ravens’ and relieve the pressure on the O-Line – they might compete for the NFC East this year…but they are stuck with Danny Demise (ohh, I just thought of that as I was typing…dibs on the trademark!!!)
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Dak Prescott is not only in jeopardy for the rest of 2020…he’s going to miss a lot of 2021 prep and maybe be really rusty, not ‘right’ for a portion of 2021 (if that ankle injury was as bad as it looked). This could affect the Dallas players related for FF for more than this ROS.
What happens now with Andy Dalton (9-11 for 111 yards, 0 TD/0 INT)?
First, Dalton is a solid NFL backup. You can win games with Dalton…but you’re putting his faded-skills into a situation with a corrupted O-Line and a terrible coaching staff and terrible defensive plan. He’s not a miracle worker. He’s not Nick Foles. Fantasy things are going to suffer.
Watching his 11 throws in this game and trying to make assumptions – we’ll not get any clues to the future. He was either throwing quick hitters against a soft zone or last minute prayers being answered by Michael Gallup. Or the other type throw was near-pick six quick hitters. But, overall, Dalton looked competent with good arm strength.
However, Dalton can’t be Dak. I’m not sure Dak could keep being Dak…their games got so crazy it set up a perfect storm for crazy FF numbers Weeks 1-4. The WRs/TEs will have to take a hit over time/as we go you’d think. But let’s just say Dalton is 70% of Dak…then the following assumptions:
Amari Cooper (2-23-0/4) goes from strong WR1 to weak WR1, possibly more high-end WR2…a #10-18 WR scorer in PPR.
CeeDee Lamb (8-124-0/11) goes from strong WR1.5 in PPR…to possibly a strong WR2 PPR name. The most typical Lamb outcome in a game this year has been 5 catches for 50-80 yards and no TDs. What’s he worth if he’s getting 4-5 catches for 40-70 yards and limited TDs? He’s not a TD producer…he’s a higher-end Russell Gage/Greg Ward event of being the slot WR and being in the biggest output volume passing game in the NFL. Now, it’s not going to be the biggest output passing game…will Lamb continue to thrive in it? He won’t die, but his name/output right now is ahead of his reality going forward (thus he was my #1 ‘sell high’ for this week).
Michael Gallup (4-73-0/4) was on his way to another terrible FF event, but two late miracle throws/catches saved his FF day late. He’s the worst option for Dalton – the deep ball connection. They will be a random event together. Gallup has five games played in 2020 and 4.5 of them were pretty FF-sad/him ignored/a decoy. How does that change with Dalton?
Dalton Schultz (1-6-0/3) fell back to reality in this game as it was. Now, he’s facing a situation where the offensive fireworks are going to dip to some degree…and it won’t help him as a beneficiary of all the WR attention by defenses. Your TE1 hope here may have just dried up and went to TE1 heaven.
Ezekiel Elliott (19-91-2, 14-14-0/2) is going to be fine, as always…but maybe a bit less fine. He’s about to play with the worst O-Line and QB he’s ever had to play with…and the worst coaching staff. No-Dak is not a boon to his output upside.
-- Andy Dalton is better than Daniel Jones (20-33 for 222 yards, 0 TD/0 INT).
About anything is better than Danny Demise (trademark pending). Watching this tape is masterclass in how not to play quarterback in the NFL. Actually, it’s a cautionary tale – if your QB is constantly backpedaling, fading backwards on his throws even when there isn’t much pressure (in NFL terms)…if you never see him stepping forward into throws in the pocket – you know you got a major problem. It’s the problem I saw with him at Duke, and it’s here in full HD now. Sure, he can throw a 3-step drop, no-look slant/quick hitter and look good/zippy. He can make a throw scrambling because no one is in front of him to scare him most times. But, unfortunately, for him and Sam Darnold and Dwayne Haskins and all the other failed QBs in history…you can’t always roll-out on every play.
In the 4 games since Saquon has been gone, and Saquon was the thing that took heat off Danny to have less pressure, Jones has 0 TDs/3 INTs passing in those 4 games…and all passing games under 250 yards in games, half of them under 190 yards.
It’s time for the Giants to put on big boy pants and make the tough decision, but this was the owner’s decision to draft Jones…in part, because Eli and Peyton recommended him. It’s over. https://youtu.be/TfAYz6p-mlw
Because it’s over, but no one will admit it…we have 11 more weeks of this mess. You have to adjust accordingly for FF…
Darius Slayton (8-129-0/11) – nice, promising WR…sell high off this event. Schedule rough the next five weeks. This is a nice week to sell off.
Sterling Shepard/Golden Tate – don’t even bother with.
Realize we’re talking about the Giants as the single worst passing game on the NFL planet since Saquon got hurt. Not a ‘bad’ passing game…it’s devoid of output. You’re trying to get a slice of a pie that’s all crust, no filling.
…which is why, I sadly have to part (kinda) with Evan Engram (2-9-1, 1-16-0/2). I am demoting him to TE2. There’s still some usefulness in that he’s an explosive starting NFL TE, but my days of thinking he can be a top 5 fantasy TE…that died when Saquon died which forced Daniel Jones to die. Engram is now downgraded to erratically ‘useful’. I’ll be starting Jordan Akins most places this week over EE.
The thing is, Engram scored a TD here…off a running play. He also scored a TD off a slick fake punt, but it got called back for nonsense. They stole a TD/6pts from us, because that’s how my fantasy weeks are going this year…watching near-miss TDs and real TDs called back for penalty for 10 hours on Sundays. It’s ‘fun’!?!
If Engram is going to play in a high scoring game with a bad pass defense opponent and get two targets…buh-bye. If he got 5-6 targets a game, it’d be OK. But Daniel Demise is the bubonic plague of NFL passing. The worst contact tracing ever. Engram gets exposed to the illness every Sunday.
-- I’ll walk back my Devonta Freeman (17-60-1, 2-27-0/3) mocking from a week+ ago…although, I did say he just might be rusty. Devonta looked much better this week, obviously he just needed some time to get up to speed.
Now, he’s also an RB on the worst pass game ever…so, he has limited upside. But the way they are talking about him – you’d think he’s Jason Garrett’s Ezekiel Elliott. I’m not going to fight delusional coaches.
Wayne Gallman (5-24-0, 2-0-0/2) popped in and provided a spark but was quickly removed so as not to make the signing of Freeman look even worse than it is.
Freeman is the one to own now.
-- I’ll hand out another apology…Jaylon Smith (14 tackles, 3 TFLs, 0.5 sacks), who I often mock, played the RB passing game very well this game. It’s almost like he knew the plays were coming. And you can’t convince me that a Princeton grad O-C like Jason Garrett would ever be so dumb as to use the same exact plays he always does/always used in Dallas that Smith would’ve seen ten thousand times the past five years and known where to be/what to do most times by the pre-alignments. That could never happen.
-- If someone used Kyler Fackrell (3 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 INT/TD) this week in a deep IDP, and he helped win you a game with his pick six…and we helped you by keeping Fackrell’s memory alive the past year or so, and it paid off here – let me know so I can enjoy the little things in life!!
I really like Fackrell’s game. I love the way this NYG defense can work…just Dan Demise is providing zero support for it to keep gelling/emerging.
-- This NYG-DST had Dak playing his worst (statistical) game of the year and they got a pick six and they looked like they were about to get their first win, but then a bunch of prevent garbage yards/FGs happened late and made it look worse than it was (also note one score was a Dallas D TD). This was another small step for this defense…it’s a good unit, I swear.
Ahead for NYG-DST:
Week 6 = Kyle Allen
Week 7 = Wentz/the bad O-Line
Week 8 = Tom Brady
Week 9 = Kyle Allen/Alex Smith
Week 10 = Wentz/the bad O-Line
It’s a deep sleeper play to consider the next few weeks.
Snap Counts of Interest:
37 = D Freeman
12 = Gallman
64 = Gallup
42 = Amari
36 = Lamb
21 = N Brown
15 = Wilson
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 5: Game Analysis: Bears 20, Bucs 19
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
First things first…I think this game outcome definitively proves Nick Foles is the better quarterback in NFL history over Tom Brady, amitire? https://youtu.be/6eX3fiQLo84
Foles just never got the real shot in the league that Brady did.
Jokes aside/as far as this game really went…
The Bucs led 13-0 with two minutes left until halftime, and it looked like the Bucs were cruising, but the Bears then scored two TDs in the span of 1:12 and actually led 14-13 at halftime. All the teams could do was exchange FGs in the second half, no TDs scored, and the Bears hitting the game winning FG late to win 20-19…as Tom Brady is still awaiting his 5th-down opportunity to try and win the game.
Re-watching this, it’s so obvious Brady thought his bad 4th-down throw at the end was 3rd-down, and there was still a down to go…as he never left the field, held up four fingers signifying it was 4th-down now (right?) but everyone else was leaving the field…it was over.
Because it is 2020, and every public figure and everyone on social media and everyone in the press has to lie about everything. Brady lied/didn’t answer a direct question about it and Bruce Arians lied and said Brady knew. Wouldn’t we all love and respect and empathize with Brady if he had admitted…”I thought it was 3rd-down. My bad.” His career speaks for itself. Instead, he lies to us.
All the credit in the world to the Bears, because I thought Tampa would ‘work’ them and that the Bears wouldn’t have the backbone to fight the aggressive Bucs – but this win may have been a turning point, a stake in the ground on the Bears not going down easily in 2020. And it’s all because they have Nick Foles captaining the ship. He provides ‘hope’ for the entire team.
Both QBs were under pressure (same amount of sacks, and both hit about the exact amount as well), but Foles handled it way better than Brady, because at this stage of their careers/in the year 2020 – Foles might be the better QB under stressful situations. Look at the Comp. Pct., the money throws, and the final score – Foles was pretty damn good under the circumstances…not a starter from day one, doesn’t have the weapons the Bucs have, and he lost his very good starting center in-game among any number of other things.
Chicago is now a shocking (4-1) with a winnable game at Carolina Week 5, but the Panthers are now playing for the playoffs! We project the Bears with 8-10 wins this season, with 9-7 most likely for our models…after winning this pivotal game with TB. This game outcome could really matter later if these two teams are into tiebreaker situations for a wild card or seeding.
Tampa Bay is now (3-2)…the Jekyll and Hyde of the NFL. One week they look like Super Bowl contenders, the next week sloppy and seem lucky if they can get a wild card. The Bucs play a season-pivotal game Week 6 hosting Green Bay. Win that game, and everyone is back on-board. Lose that game and everyone will start calling for the Brady demise, which might be justified.
It just seems to me that Arians-Brady-Gronk-the defense…it’s all being pulled/coached/executed in different directions, and they just ‘hope it all works out’, but sometimes it does and too many times it doesn’t’ -- Brady is running the team, while Arians to trying to pretend he does. Probably a lot of up and down all year with this group…and maybe they gel as they go. Week 6 v. GB is huge for them to define their season (up or down).
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- We have to talk about Tom Brady (25-41 for 253 yards, 1 TD/0 INT)…actually, we need to talk about his throws/targeting preferences.
We need to talk about it in the context of why Scotty Miller (0-0-0/0) was the Bucs leading WR in yardage in 2020 coming into the game, and seemed to have a great connection with Brady…and with Chris Godwin out here, Brady not only didn’t throw to Miller – he didn’t ever glance/look his way the whole night.
Takeaways on the Bucs receivers and their connection with Brady this game/after 4 weeks…
1) There is no connection with Brady and any one receiver.
There is nothing close to Brady+Edelman here. And I’ve written about this before, the reason Brandin Cooks and Josh Gordon and Chris Hogan, etc., etc., never came through big with Brady in recent years was that Brady just doesn’t ‘make’ those other receivers anymore. He’s a random event thrower and he’s losing his touch a tiny bit month-by-month.
There’s a reason Belichick let him walk, essentially.
I’m not saying Brady is Philip Rivers bad/’shot’ now…but nothing looks cohesive yet in this passing game. It’s impossible right now how to predict where Brady is going/looking at with any consistency for FF game-to-game.
2) Mike Evans (5-41-1/9) is Brady’s TD guy…he’s leading the league in receiving TDs, but other than that it’s been a weak/erratic connection between the two. When they get close to the end zone, then Brady starts to remember Evans is on the team.
It’s been a bunch of 1-yard TDs and balloons floated out to Evans…hoping for a landing. They’ve connected for 6 TDs so far this season, four of them from 1-2 yards out, and if you ignore the six short TD passes/connections then Brady-to-Evans has resulted in 16 catches on 29 throws in 2020…for a feeble 55.2% connection rate.
3) I have no explanation why Scotty Miller didn’t even get a bubble screen or anything…just note, it should frighten you on using Miller with any confidence going forward. Brady basically forgot him like he was a 4th-down play at the end of a game.
I was so impressed with the way Brady was forcing/working Miller the prior two weeks, but I’m taking my ROS projections way down on Miller next week. It was a giant nothing this week.
4) No matter what -- Brady is trying to get Gronk (3-53-0/6) going. I think Gronk is a low end TE1 threat in some games ahead, just because Brady IS trying to make that work. Even if it isn’t open much.
For Gronk’s part, it looks like he is starting to loosen up and is moving around better now than in Weeks 1-2. There is some FF-hope here, as Brady leans on him like a crutch…but there’s also risk. Why?
4) Per the TV analysts, they mentioned Brady has been lobbying to get Cameron Brate (5-44-0/6) on the field…that he likes him a lot. Well, we hear that kinda stuff and it goes in one ear and out the other…but note that Brate caught a TD pass last week and then had 6 targets this game with O.J. Howard gone.
But extra-note: The one guy Brady was forcing things to, leaning on, had some cohesion with – was Brate…and only Brate here. I was shocked to see it.
The rise of Brate throttles back any rise of Gronk for FF, and probably vice-versa. But Brate has my attention after watching this tape. My main takeaway from this game, the mark left on my soul…there’s something to watch between Brady-Brate. I won’t bet heavy on it, because Brady had it with Miller and abandoned it -- but the Brate thing is on my radar. Not a fluke random event here for Brate.
5) Rookie WR that I love, Tyler Johnson (4-61-0/6), looked great but I know two things will happen from here after this sweet mini-breakout.
a) Johnson goes straight to the bench when Godwin returns.
b) Brady isn’t making a receiver like Johnson viable consistently. Tyler Johnson is kinda FF-screwed until Brady moves on.
-- Ronald Jones (17-106-0, 3-19-0/5) put down more tape that says he’s a better NFL RB than Leonard Fournette again. No way Jones is losing this job. I think Fournette will become a 3rd-down type back and they run them as a 60/40 duo, but unless someone gets hurt…the other isn’t going to be ‘the man’.
People still think, and fueled some more by this loss, that Fournette is going to take over as starter – it’s never going to happen unless RoJo starts fumbling or gets hurt. Jones is better than Fournette – get with the 2020 times we live in! *I am saying that to myself to make sure I don’t try to think otherwise. But I’ve been on team RoJo since the jump, sadly for me…as a universal Fournette holder/trader away of for weeks.
-- On the Bears’ side, I only have one offensive FF note…
I mean, it was the same Bears team we’ve seen all year. Foles is gritty. Allen Robinson is awesome. David Montgomery sucks (10-29-1, 7-30-0/8) but got to fall in the end zone and catch dump passes that he could not do anything with, but God Bless him, he caught ‘em.
The only note is – Darnell Mooney (2-15-0/5) didn’t further any breakout hopes here. You could see the raw talent and he is going to have his days, but this passing game is Allen Robinson and everybody else randomly happening, for now.
-- The real star of the game for Chicago, besides Foles…the Bears-DST.
This looked like a ‘bad matchup’ on paper, but after getting down 13-0, they bowed up and shut down the Bucs. Tampa Bay only scored 1 TD all game.
At CAR, at LAR aren’t bad matchups the next two weeks either. Not great, but not bad. The Bears-DST schedule is filled with OK matchups ahead, not any ‘easy/great’ ones on paper.
They might play like a DST1, but their schedule might force them to fringe DST1 or high-end DST2.
-- The Bucs-DST was on the verge of a great night early on, almost an INT return TD…another INT wiped off for a penalty. Three sacks on Foles. It wasn’t terrible. This defense is very promising and loaded with talent…more talented than the Bears, easily.
If people drop them Week 6 for their matchup with GB, maybe grab them for Week 7 at LV, and for sure for Week 8 at NYG. Tampa Bay has the kinda defense you can plug & play in most situations, even so-so ones – they’re aggressive and maybe the #1-2-3 most talented defensive unit that I watch every week. But they are very erratic…but that’s most NFL defenses anymore in the 2020 Arena League style play.
Snap Counts of Interest:
55 = ARob
41 = Mooney
26 = AMiller
17 = Wims
15 = C Patt
04 = Ginn
60 = Evans
56 = Tyler Johnson
45 = Scott Miller
57 = Gronk
33 = Brate
16 = Hudson
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 4: Game Analysis: Saints 35, Lions 29
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
After the Sunday games end, I start putting together a tentative board of the games just played to prioritize what games I want to analyze first and second and so on for the upcoming week. I rank them by the games I see the most questions/revelations, general FF-interest in and go from there.
As I put the Week 4 board together, sliding the games back and forth into buckets and ranks…the Saints-Lions game started at the bottom on the first pass, and stayed their on the second pass, and never budged from there as the week unfolded – the least interesting, least things to learn game of the week was what I thought it would be, and now that I’ve re-watched it – it was just that.
Consider what just happened here, and it’s breathtakingly bad for Lions fans…
1) The Saints walked into this game missing two of their best players…Michael Thomas and, more importantly, Marshon Lattimore. Not to mention their other starting CB (Janoris Jenkins) was out among other Saints players banged up. This was a wounded, depleted Saints team going into Week 4.
2) At the same time, the Lions started getting back injured corners and their ace WR returned to action last week. The Lions health-o-meter was on the rise, and they defeated Arizona last week to make a stand for the 2020 season.
3) The Lions looked sharp and jumped out to a rapid 14-0 lead. Watching it live, I was thinking – the Saints are too wounded, I knew this would happen, why did I pick the Saints in this game? It looked like a bloodbath was underway.
It was.
4) The Saints then scored the next 35 points over the next two quarters, and shut down the Lions as they went. The Lions scored a couple of meaningless TDs with under 6 minutes to go to make it look semi-close, and Detroit actually had a chance late (down one score with 4+ minutes left)…but ‘it’s the Lions’, so of course they didn’t come back.
Spotted a 14-0 lead, at home, facing a wounded Saints defense and ever-increasing rickety Drew Brees without he favorite WR and TE – the Lions then got blown right out of their own building.
You know what the 2020 season will be known for, looking back? The downfall of all the Belichick assistants who were desperately grabbed as head coaches. Will the NFL ever learn?
Nope.
Brian Flores (1-3)
Matt Patricia (1-3)
Joe Judge (0-4)
Bill O’Brien (0-4) *Fired already
You think any of these teams are headed to the playoffs or ‘in the right direction?’
There’s not much to learn here for Fantasy because this was a game unlike these teams will have ahead. The Saints won’t be missing all their corners and Michael Thomas. The Saints will change back to a Thomas-based offense and the Lions will continue to suck…that’s the short version. Here’s the longer version of things I noted:
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- So, the Saints have been struggling a bit on defense coming into this game as it was – allowing 23, 34, and 37 points Weeks 1-3. In this game, that same defense was missing all it’s starting cornerbacks. This should have been an air raid on them.
Given that context, Matt Stafford (17-31 for 306 yards, 3 TDs/1 INT) only completing 54.8% of his passes is an utter embarrassment. He got numbers late to salvage it for FF.
How can anyone have any faith in this offense for Fantasy? You only have ‘garbage time’ hope. They want to run the ball with power behind a hundred-year-old running back they picked up off waivers…the passing game is a last resort.
Four weeks of results, plus having this very favorable matchup, we can determine the following on the Lions’ offensive players for 2020 FF…
1) Matt Stafford is not a QB1. He can have QB1 moments in garbage time, but he hasn’t been all year until here. His stellar 2019 for half a season…gone. No carryover to 2020.
‘Time’, this new era, has passed the Lions offense by.
2) Marvin Jones (1-9-0/2) has all but been ignored for four games with/without KG there, with/without a good matchup (on paper). He’s dead to me.
Why is it that I hate older players my entire FF career, but then watch them defy age over and over, so I adopt them in 2020 to use at WR this season, as middle round value picks in redraft – and now they all get old and suck?
RBs get better with age.
TEs are desired with age by NFL coaches.
QBs are going to thrive until age 50.
All 30+ year old WRs potentially suck/can’t keep up with the new breed.
…this is the mantra playing in my mind right now. Whether true or just me being a baby.
3) If the offense sucks/is overrated, then any slick T.J. Hockenson (2-9-1/4) hopes by people are misguided. I never liked him anyway. Now, he’s the poster child of the Lions…not athletic enough, overrated from day one, useless for FF.
4) D’Andre Swift (4-22-0, 4-30-1/4) is Theo Riddick 2.0 in this offense.
5) Kenny Golladay (4-62-1/8) will be fine but not as glamorous as we might have hoped. I mean, if he can’t destroy the Saints backup CBs, at home, in a dome in a game Stafford throws for 300+ yards…then when is he blowing up? Still, he’s the guy to own.
My goal is to purge my redraft rosters of all Lions, except Golladay. I’m chasing into the Bills and Chargers and Bengals players instead, to catch the new wave of passing games to find FF numbers from hidden places.
-- Drew Brees (19-25 for 246 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT) looks increasingly worse than ever, but he’s still very good…just not ‘great’ anymore (and I worry what it will look like in December+). But he’s fine now…and better than Matt Stafford for the NFL, but for FF…we’ll see.
The Saints have smart, savvy offense…the Lions do not. That’s the difference. Brees is carried a bit by his surroundings some, Stafford is held back.
-- The Saints’ WR report…
If Michael Thomas is out, Sanders-Smith can be FF good. Once Thomas is back, they are all useless.
End of report.
-- No Jared Cook for this game, on top of all the other NO injuries…and the magical unicorn rookie TE Adam Trautman (0-0-0/0) played 19 snaps and had no targets.
Backup TE Garrett Griffin played 22 snaps, and honestly…I thought he was out of football.
-- Is it me or does it seem like every time the Saints try to use Taysom Hill (3-6-0, 1-8-0/1) for something he fumbles or messes it up in some way this year?
Hill has fumbled in each of his last two games…and he only gets 3-4 touches in game anyway. He’s run the ball 10 times for 33 yards this year…3.3 ypc.
Like with many players I see nowadays…that huge new contract seems to have slowed him down/taken away the aggression a little bit. Just my theory.
-- NO DE Romeo Okwara (3 tackles, 1.0 sacks, 4 QB hits) had 4 QB hits in this game and registered his second sack in his last 2 games. He’s a really good pass rusher when given the playing time. 7.5 sacks in 2017 as a part-time player for DET. He started this game and responded nicely.
Snap Counts of Interest:
27 = AP
23 = Swift
11 = Kerryon
47 = AK
29 = Latavius
62 = Tre’Quan
51 = Emm Sanders
15 = M Callaway (had his 1st NFL catch)
14 = Deonte Harris
10 = Fowler
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 4: Game Analysis: Vikings 31, Texans 23
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
Bill O’Brien deserved to get fired after this game…but the defensive coaches should’ve gone with him. Houston had one of the worst coached, worst planned game plans I’ve seen this year…which is a continuation of one of the worst coaching jobs of 2020.
Why?
1) How do you possess David Johnson, trade for him, and don’t know how capable he is in the passing game and thus design plays for it? I’ve seen 2-3 purposed screens this year…otherwise they did not even try anything unique with him – and he’s made some surprise/bailout catches downfield off Watson scrambles/2nd-3rd-4th-looks…but no one thinks to try things on purpose. It’s stunning…and then again, not stunning…to be expected.
2) Vernon Hargreaves is one of the worst corners in the NFL…and they keep playing him. Kirk Cousins would look/throw to wherever Hargreaves was most of the night (and try to avoid Bradley Roby). The Texans ran a bunch of zone coverage to try to make up for their overall coverage issues but there were several breakdowns of communication and Adam Thielen made a huge, wide-open play within that.
With all that…The Texans had a chance to tie the game late, but on 3rd & goal from the 1-yard line they tried a read option pitch that was dangerous, David Johnson took his eyes off the pitch to see what was between him and the end zone and he botched it. On 4th-down, they couldn’t get it done…and ball game, loss by 8 for Houston.
Should an NFL head coach get fired after 4 games into a season, after what he’s accomplished the past few years? I get a notion of sticking by him for history’s sake -- but with the godawful planning anyone close to the team could see was lacking, the weak GM-ing people have hated, and then a verbal fight with J.J. Watt…there’s no coming back from that when JJW turns on you. You have to be smarter than that. They might as well make the change now and start moving on…don’t drag it out. Romeo Crennel is not going to do anything either, so this thing will continue to head down the tubes.
Minnesota wasn’t great here, but they were solid…and they just let Houston faceplant on themselves over and over.
The Vikings are (1-3), and not a very good team/just beat one of the worst teams of 2020 who then fired their coach afterwards it was so bad. Their next three games are @SEA, ATL, @GB – it’s their season the next three games, and if they lose the road games (likely) they will be (2-5) heading into an easier stretch of schedule, and hopefully getting Danielle Hunter back, but by then it will be too late most likely. We project a 6-7 win finish for ‘OK’ Minnesota. I think the Vikings could be on the verge of a similar head coaching issue that Houston just went through – an unlikable head coach, who gets more unlikable with each loss, and a roster trending down not up…Zimmer could be in hot water if this season turns south hard.
I would assume that Houston will make absolutely no innovative changes with their ‘soft’/sleepy substitute teacher coach. The Texans season will come down to Weeks 5 and 6. Maybe they beat JAX Week 5, maybe with the joy of no Bill O’Brien, and thus the bleeding stops. Then beat Tennessee Week 6…and maybe the season is back on track – the Texans could be (2-4) after Week 6 with (3-2) TEN or (4-2) IND in 1st-place…Houston just a game or two out with 10 games left and two Indy matchups to go. It’s hope/do-able…but if Houston loses Week 5 or 6, it’s pretty much over.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- As I do, I watched every David Johnson (16-63-0, 2-29-0/3) carry intently…looking for clues, for worries, for hope – looking for the truth. All I can tell you is – everything looks fine. His legs, his speed is good (not as great as it used to be…but he rarely gets room to roll to see), especially his agility/bounce in his step and cutbacks are as good as ever.
He has no space to run. That’s the problem. And they don’t throw him the ball with any purpose…that’s a Fantasy killer.
Just so it doesn’t sound like I’m making things up from biased memories, I checked some numbers on DJ and used his opposing RB here (Dalvin Cook) to check some data…
Using the stat ‘Yards Before Contact’ (per attempt), which is how people try to gauge how much room/opportunity an RB has to run before defenders are making contact, here’s Cook v. DJ the past three years in ‘Yards Before Contact’ (and you want to see 2.3-2.5+ to feel good about things)…
Dalvin Cook:
2018 = 2.6
2019 = 2.2
2020 = 3.0
David Johnson:
2018 = 2.1 (this was the one year with the Steve Wilks disaster)
2019 = 1.9 (Kliff’s 1st-year in Arizona)
2020 = 2.0 (the Texans era)
I tried to think of other good backs stuck behind a troubling O-Line in recent years to compare. Here’s a few I looked at…
Joe Mixon:
2018 = 2.7
2019 = 1.8
2020 = 2.4
Leonard Fournette:
2018 = 1.6
2019 = 1.4
2202 = 1.7
Ezekiel Elliott:
2018 = 2.8 (best O-Line in football year?)
2019 = 2.3 (lost some OLs)
2020 = 1.7 (lost A LOT of OLs and his rushing numbers are paying a price)
Some of these lower numbers can probably be attributed to ‘running style’…power backs get sent at a wall, other RBs get more mix of outside runs but low ‘Yards Before Contact’ is also an indictment of the O-Line, QB, and play calling – mostly O-Line.
Jonathan Taylor is being sent headfirst into stacked lines and has a 2.4 number YTD – better than most. Why? Don’t we love their O-Line? It shows in his number…and his number has been rising as the season goes on.
I was thinking of another RB who is just ‘OK/good’ but I think benefits from the O-Line…Raheem Mostert. His three-year numbers:
2018 = 4.2
2019 = 3.5
2020 = 5.3 (has that untouched 80-yard run in there to fluff it)
So, the ‘O-Line’ could be a viable explanation for DJ…but it still leaves the problem – he has an issue that is not easily overcome. However, look at Derrick Henry’s numbers…
2018 = 1.9
2019 = 1.9
2020 = 1.7
You can overcome a weak O-Line, for FF, with a lot of touches and an offense that gets you down to the goal line for easy scores (for FF).
You just have to keep FF-grinding with DJ hoping for those TDs to come and maybe a change in offensive style to free him in some way. I can tell you, the first four games of his usage looked like 2018 with Steve Wilks – up the middle, and everyone knew it, and it went nowhere, and DJ was making +1-2-3 yards on plays with sheer effort/determination.
DJ might be ‘screwed’ for FF 2020 because of this, we’ll see -- but he’s not ‘shot’…if that’s what you’re asking/wondering. Not that I see.
-- Everyone is excited by the possibilities of Kirk Cousins’ (16-22 for 260 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) schedule the next two weeks – vs. the #32 pass D of Seattle and then vs. the #31 pass D of Atlanta. How could this not work for FF?
Well, it makes sense on paper…but also note that Mike Zimmer would rather win these games with 30+ runs a game, and less Cousins…regardless of the defense.
You know what NFL team has the least amount of pass attempts in football right now? You guessed it – the Minnesota Vikings.
It should be good for Justin Jefferson (4-103-0/5) and Adam Thielen (8-114-1/10) too but watch out. Jefferson looks great, but I fear what will happen to him when the schedule turns tougher and Zimmer tries to run through it (which was Stefon Diggs’ complaint all along).
-- I know, you hate Jordan Akins (3-46-0/3) now because he is not repaying your love. Flash in the pan, RC!!!
Let me just say – he looked great here. His numbers, all before halftime and then with a minute left before the half, Harrison Smith crowned him helmet-to-helmet and sent him out of the game. Akins was pacing for a 6-92-0/6 day or better, when you just double his 1st-half.
I love the way Akins looks with Deshaun Watson this year. Don’t give up on it yet, if you can help it. Buy it cheap in Dynasty if you need it…or any league where you need/can store depth.
Akins probably misses this week’s game with that concussion, but I hope not.
-- I was asked about HOU DT P.J. Hall (7 tackles, 1 sack, 1 TFL) on the Tuesday Video Chat – is he breaking out/finally fulfilling the promise of his Draft/prospect hopes from a few years ago?
I don’t think so.
I took an extended look at his work here, and nice DT IDP numbers got the game but…
He definitely is playing good NFL ball…he’s a load clogging up space in the middle. He is fighting at the LOS very well, but he’s just clogging the interior and things come near him and he made some plays. His sack here was not impressive…a QB flushed into Hall’s area. I saw a good for the NFL, weak for IDP number production player on tape.
He is not-nothing. He is starting now (last 3 games). He has made it to ‘viable NFL DT’, but that athletic freak we all wondered about years ago – I don’t see it.
-- Bradley Roby (7 tackles, 2 PDs) is to be feared for the opposing #1 WR across from him. He allowed just 3 catches for 14 yards, and 1 TD to WRs he was covering here.
Oddly, HOU went to some zone and/or was having Roby pass off Thielen to the safeties who looked clueless 40% of the time and Jefferson-Thielen had some monster plays from it – but not off Roby.
Roby has allowed 33 yards in a game, for the ‘high/most’ allowed this season to WRs he covers – and that was Week 1 v. Tyreek. D.J. Chark gets this Week 5…but note that DJC could thrive/do OK if Roby hands him off to dumb safeties like he did with Thielen here sometimes.
Snap Counts of Interest:
36 = David Johnson
25 = Duke Johnson
52 = Fells
19 = Akins (knocked out before halftime)
61 = Cooks
50 = Fuller
48 = Cobb
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 4: Game Analysis: Bengals 33, Jaguars 25
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
OK, OK…the Bengals won. Let’s not get too sappy, happy about it. Neither team is very good, and the Jaguars lost two good+ cornerbacks and a key linebacker in this game, and it ripped their heart out…and Cincy still scuffled to get the win.
Cincy goes on to face at BAL and at IND the next two weeks…so, this bubble pops right now. It’s a 3-4 win team this season, at best.
The Jags are now (1-3), three losses in a row, and falling apart with injuries fast. They’ll be lucky to be a 3-4 win team.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- I remembered this game, the live watch, as Gardner Minshew (27-40 for 351 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT) not really attacking with D.J. Chark (8-95-2/9) right away…and that worried me. However, re-watching it, that wasn’t really the case. Minshew was pretty appropriate…treating DJC like his #1. I feel better now re-watching it.
DJC was really good here. He made some terrific catches. He’s a WR1 talent that we’ll see if he can put up WR1 numbers this year. Minshew is not looking great, but he’s fine, just not ‘extra’ compared to last year…not growing in this stuffy offense – so DJC goes as far as Minshew takes him.
It should be fine. The Jags may be so riddled with injuries that they are always down, and always throwing in games. The Jags are #10 in pass attempts in the NFL. That ranking may be ready to grow.
I don’t love DJC’s next four weeks…he gets Bradley Roby this week, which has been bad news for WRs. He then has DET, which is solid for Chark. Then a BYE Week 7. Then LAC and possibly Casey Hayward on him…and that’s not good either. Then Week 9 back to Bradley Roby. I love DJC, but four of his next 5 weeks are very shaky – that’s why I’m selling high on him IN REDRAFT this week off this 2-TD game. Nothing personal, because he’s great. I’m fine to hold, but I’m seeking to lever this big week.
-- Same thing with Joe Mixon (25-151-2, 6-30-1/6)…I love the guy but a hot week, after three duds, and then at BAL, at IND the next two weeks is brutal with a Week 9 BYE and then Week 10 at PIT. Four of his next 6 weeks are TERRIBLE. He might come through as RBs can do, getting short TDs – but we got issues on Mixon and Burrow & Friends many of the upcoming weeks.
-- Speaking of Joe Burrow (25-36 for 300 yards, 1 TD/1 INT)…he’s great. Like a young Joe Montana. Great QB mind, and sneaky tough. Greta vision for the field…just little protection for him in the pocket. Still, this marks three 300+ yard passing games in a row.
But before I watched this CIN-JAX game, I watched LAC-TB…and I have to say that Justin Herbert just looks like the superior QB in every way right now. No slam to Burrow, but Herbert has quite frankly…been amazing, for a rookie put in the spot he has been.
-- I am getting a lot of intel that Joe Burrow is on-field close/connected to Tee Higgins (4-77-0/7)…that he loves throwing to him. He feels they are super-connected. Tee is going to be a solid WR2 threat because of it. Tyler Boyd a PPR WR1.5 hopeful, Higgins an all-formats WR2-2.5.
Just to note again…A.J. Green (1-3-0/5) needs to go to the retirement home that Philip Rivers should be going to. AJG is just embarrassing himself now but getting paid A LOT to do so.
-- Drew Sample (3-47-0/5) has a chance to be the Robert Tonyan, the Dalton Schultz, etc., for your FF teams…working with Joe Burrow.
Sample’s two non-receptions/targets this game…a 10+ yard TD pass in his hands but on the jump ball, as he and the defender crashed to the ground, the cover LB stole it as they fell and it was a TD-turned-pick. His second miss was Burrow again high point throwing to Sample, and it went right through his hands in the end zone -- it was a tough catch, but the intent was there. Sample VERY nearly had 2 TDs in this game, and had he gone 5-65-2/5, everyone would have piled back into him for FF salvation. Instead, they are into Robert Tonyan this week.
Sample has an upside to low-end TE1 here…but not assured.
-- Two Jags’ defenders killing it for IDP…
SAF Andrew Wingard (10 tackles, 1 PD) has played two full games as starting safety (Weeks 2 and 4), and he is averaging 9.5 total tackles per game in those games. He’s a high-energy tackling machine.
SAF Josh Jones (11 tackles) has started all 4 games and is averaging 9.0 tackles per game.
Note – the Jags lost D.J. Hayden to injury in this game, and he is now on I.R. for at least 3 weeks. This is a KILLER for the Jags defense. Opposing slot WRs benefit hugely. Randall Cobb Week 5…Tyler Boyd Week 6…BYE Week 7.
Snap Counts of Interest:
64 = Sample
58 = Boyd
53 = AJG
34 = Higgins
58 = Chark
50 = Cole
37 = Shenault
21 = Conley
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 4: Game Analysis: Seahawks 31, Dolphins 23
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
Miami made this a game, when most thought it would be a blowout. They were going toe-to-toe with Seattle, but in the end…Ryan Fitzpatrick/Miami doesn’t have enough offensive firepower to score in the red zone and then you keep giving Russell Wilson chances…Seattle’s going to win.
Miami had 9 offensive drives in this game. Pick and a punt on the first two drives. The final 7 drives had 5 FGs, a TD, a pick near the end zone. If Miami were not so pathetic at RB and WR, they might have scored 50 points this game. Every time I’d see Myles Gaskin get a carry near the goal line -- I just shook my head. How is that Miami’s best RB plan?
Miami played tough. They had chances. It was a 2-point game with 5+ left, and then the dam broke.
Miami plays two games ahead that they could win both or lose both and the season be defined -- @SF, @DEN the next two weeks. If Miami can at least split those games, get to (2-4)…looking down the road, they have 2 games with NYJ and 1 with the Bengals still on the schedule…that’s potentially 5 wins (NYJ 2x, CIN + if 2-4 after Week 6). Leaving them with the question of whether they can get to 9 wins with the other 7 other games that are not NYJ or CIN to play after Week 6…but it’s a much tougher schedule. We see Miami between 6-8 wins. When they get back Byron Jones this week, it’s a whole new situation – a solid defense and piss-poor offense.
Seattle is (4-0) and the Cardinals, Rams, nor 49ers impress me much. Seattle might cruise to the NFC West crown, but the Seahawks have not been great either…but spotted with a (4-0) start puts them in a great position to rule the NFC West. Seattle projects as a 10+ win team for sure (as long as Wilson is there).
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- How long ‘til Tua?
The way Herbert-Burrow are playing…it might get forced soon. The longer it takes, the more worried I’d be that they know Tua is NOT ready…not the skills or the readiness of Herbert-Burrow.
What will change with Tua for FF?
No clue. No one has seen him work with this team under fire. He would walk in with a WR group worse than what he had in college.
He might revive Preston Williams (1-15-0/3). Teams are still covering Williams hot…while Fitz is pushing DeVante Parker (10-110-0/12), which defenses seem to be fine making Fitz-Parker beat them (because it’s not working).
I don’t know how good Tua is going to be for the NFL…I’m skeptical.
-- DeVante Parker is now game-on as a WR1.5 threat in PPR until defenses change/if they change how they cover him.
Preston Williams doesn’t exist except in the red zone for Fitz, it seems (he’s getting RZ targets but not many connections).
Isaiah Ford (4-40-0/10) by default is getting targets, but he’s not very athletic so he doesn’t do much with them. He’s solid/capable. Nothing special, but any WR getting 6-8+ targets a game is worth something in an emergency.
-- Durham Smythe (2-30-0/2) got a little extra pass game work in here, (for him) but he’s still playing less snaps then Mike Gesicki (1-15-0/3). Smythe looks capable but this offense is so stiff and Gesicki gets red zone…it will never FF-matter.
-- An impressive debut for DeeJay Dallas (2-8-0, 2-15-0/2). He’s a scrappy, high energy, high effort runner that could matter if Chris Carson ever got hurt for an extended period of time. Dallas had a real nice run and run after the catch among his limited touches…very agile/bouncy on his feet for his bowling ball-like body. He might matter someday, but not today.
Speaking of that – don’t forget…Rashaad Penny is slated to return Week 8 – IF he is cleared. He’s rehabbing off an ACL last year, suffered just as he was starting to breakout for Seattle. Unless, Carson goes down and out…Penny, Hyde, Homer, Dallas will never matter for FF 2020.
-- With all the offensive fireworks for Seattle, #3 WR David Moore (3-95-1/4) sails right under the radar. He has a TD catch in two of his last 3 games. If the fireworks persist…he enters the BYE week Flex/WR3 picture potentially. He’s talented but overshadowed by Metcalf-Lockett-Carson-Olsen. He gets a TD this week v. MIN and people will be looking at him more for FF.
-- On the fireworks theory, Greg Olsen (5-35-0/7) has 4 or more catches in three of his 4 games this season. He’s getting a healthy dose of targets and catches, but he is looking slow/the age is catching up with him – but still TE1.5-2.0 viable in PPR.
-- Rookie RB/WR Lynn Bowden (1-5-0) got in for a play at wildcat QB, which is how he rose to power in college last year. I don’t see any real push of him as a WR or RB here so far after 4 weeks.
-- The Miami-DST is 12th in the NFL in PPG allowed…not bad considering they have faced Buffalo and Seattle among their games so far. Their three losses this year have come against teams a combined (11-1) so far.
Miami’s defense has hung in despite the fact that Byron Jones has missed, essentially, the last 3 games…it’s not bad.
I’ve stated multiple times you want this defense with the KC-DST, a near-perfect pairing. But if you don’t have KC-DST, it’s not a bad DST to grab this week to use at DEN Week 6. Or pickup after Week 7-8 before they have Weeks 10 v NYJ, Week 11 bye, Week 12 at NYJ.
This is all assuming they have their dangerous CB duo Xavien Howard-Byron Jones healthy/playing. Rookie CB Noah Igbinoghene (1 tackle) is playing very well too, so Miami could soon have a really stout pass defense.
Snap Counts of Interest:
46 = Gaskin
17 = Breida
08 = J Howard
04 = Bowden
57 = DeVante
45 = I Ford
43 = Preston W
28 = Jakeem Grant
35 = Carson
17 = Homer
11 = Dallas
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 4: Game Analysis: Eagles 25, 49ers 20
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
The two teams with the most injuries in the NFL this season played a game, and one of them…the one not playing their 2nd and 3rd-string QB won. The team playing their 1st-string QB beat the one that threw every pass to their tight end. No more, no less analysis needed here.
Let’s take a step back and look at the 49ers’ season so far…and it’s not good. Lost to Arizona, that as we are now finding out, isn’t that great of a team and thus is a bad loss. Beat the two New York teams…really, this gets us excited? Lost to previously no-win Philadelphia. The 49ers have played a collection of teams likely all to have a losing record this year, and three of them might be picking top 5 in the 2021 NFL Draft, they’re that bad…and the 49ers have two wins to show for it.
The 49ers’ injuries and schedule is about to swallow them up and spit them out…unless Kyle Shanahan pulls more miracles out, which is possible. Watch out for Miami to possibly upset them this week. We see the 49ers going 8-9 wins this year. Too many injuries, and no more NY matchups on the schedule to book more easy wins.
The Eagles ‘steal’ a win…they aren’t very good, and they just beat an overrated 49ers team. They have @PIT and BAL the next two weeks, then NYG at home Week 7 -- which means they are likely to be (2-4-1) heading into Week 8 hosting Dallas…probably, a game for the NFC East lead. Today, we project Philly around 6-7 wins this season…and 6-9-1 may win this division…I’m not joking.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Carson Wentz (18-28 for 193 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) got a job-saving win here. In fact, I’d say that this win…and the sad state of the NFC East…just bought Wentz and Doug Pederson jobs for the rest of 2020. Just from this one win.
Had Philly lost here, and it’s likely they will lose Weeks 5-6, they might have been (0-5-1) heading to play the Giants Week 7 and benching and firings would have been on the table strong. Now, a 1-4-1 record going into Week 7 hosting NYG will probably have them a half game out of 1st-place.
If Philly drops to (1-4-1) and then loses Week 7 hosting NYG…all hell will break loose. If they then lose Week 8 hosting Dallas to fall to (1-6-1) heading into a Week 9 BYE, expect a QB change and an axe to fall on Pederson. It’s unlikely they will lose four in-a-row, but not improbable.
If the Eagles are (3-4-1), after beating Dallas Week 8, they’ll likely be 1st-place and everyone’s jobs are safe the rest of the season. Even (2-5-1) will not be ‘out of it’.
Jalen Hurts (3-18-0) is likely in moth balls this season unless a Weeks 7-8 meltdown happens. Why the Eagles drafted Hurts, and with everyone watching rookie QBs explode around the league, but only has like one play a week for the ‘weapon’ Hurts is just a sign of the bigger problem here. There is no real/great plan. The Eagles stink on offense and have a corrupted O-Line and they can only think one interesting play a week for Hurts in a season/a game of desperation.
-- The best QB on the field in this game was SF 3rd-string relief QB C.J. Beathard (14-19 for 138 yards, 0 TD/0 INT). He came into the game like a whirlwind late and almost led the comeback win. He looked great but also it was against a soft prevent-ish Philly, gassed defense.
Everyone who was wondering if Nick Mullens was worth a 2nd-round pick to some NFL team to acquire…ummm, go watch this game. We are so enslaved to what happened the prior week with no context of it all -- Mullens wins two games over NYJ and NYG and the fanbase of 10 different NFL teams want THEIR team to go trade a high draft pick for the gift that is Nick Mullens. Now, Mullens isn’t even 2nd-string for his own team and no cares about him one bad game later.
-- Jerick McKinnon (14-54-1, 7-43-0/8) had another dull rushing effort as the lead dog…note that he played two top 10/strong run defenses the past two weeks (PHI and NYG).
This makes me wonder…do the 49ers really have a great run game?
Week 1 = Mostert led them with 15 carries for 3.7 ypc…his big moment on a short pass turned 80-yard TD.
Week 2 = Mostert had an 80-yard run and McKinnon a 55 yarder on the Jets…but it was the Jets. The two combined for 34 yards on 9 carries otherwise in that game.
Week 3 = The whole backfield combined for 35 carries for 93 yards rushing, 2.7 ypc.
Week 4 = McKinnon as lead dog, 14 carries for 54 yards, 3.9 ypc. It was a Brandon Aiyuk 38-yard run/leaping TD run that boosted their rushing tally…and that play was a hoax (I’ll get into it in a moment).
Maybe Raheem Mostert isn’t the best ‘buy low’ RB out there? Maybe he’s a hoax because of a long TD pass in broken coverage Week 1 and an opening game 80-yard rushing TD against the Jets starting a practice squad ILB who missed the play (among other things)?
After looking at this deeper, I’m putting the brakes on anything to do with the 49ers run game…I need to see more info. What I see so far, might be a bit of a fraud/hoax in our minds (remembering those long TD plays by Mostert is what sticks in our minds…it’s pretty dull otherwise).
-- Should we confidently start Deebo Samuel (1-10-0, 3-35-0/3) now? I guess. The schedule starts to get tougher, and the 49ers have all kinds of problems on defense…it should lead to a lot of passing ahead. Unless the 49ers do get it together and run-game all over teams. We haven’t had Jimmy G.-Deebo-Aiyuk-Mostert-Tevin-McKinnon all in the same place at the same time to know what this offense is going to do.
Deebo played just 34% of the snaps and got decent touches for his first game back. He looked fine, physically, speed-wise I thought.
-- Brandon Aiyuk (1-38-1, 2-18-0/5) scored that impressive, leaping TD…so now he’s a Hall of Famer too. But consider…
Aiyuk took that jet sweep and as he was about to get a nice 10+ yard gain, the pulling OL came out and dove into CB Darius Slay’s knee helmet first. Slay was in position to stop the play or turn it inside for others to tackle, but Slay took a wicked hit and just turned his back to the field and fell (in pain/couldn’t support himself) towards the sideline and Aiyuk just ran right through the abandoned space and he raced to the end zone for a highlight reel TD. It took a cheap block sending a defender to the ground with an injury at just the right time to make it happen.
If the block hadn’t opened the space…Aiyuk has a 10-15 yard run, a nothing fantasy day, and people are dropping him in some leagues. Instead, he’s now a star because of one play. Our eyes are dangerous things in fantasy.
As a receiver, in his three starts, Aiyuk is averaging 3.0 rec., 36.3 yards, 0.0 TDs…not necessarily FF gold. It’s the fact that he has run for two TDs that has everyone’s attention. Be careful. Sell high, potentially. Deebo back. Mostert back. Jimmy G. back. Kittle back. Is Aiyuk going to be the breakout star in a muted passing game with all them? He will be if he runs for a TD every week.
-- Who is Travis Fulgham (2-57-1/3). Former 6th-round pick of Detroit in 2019 that you don’t need to worry about.
I love that Cris Collinsworth is having an orgasm when Fulgham caught that 42-yard TD pass. How do the Eagles do it? Where did this guy come from? They’re having to do this with journeymen receivers, Al!!!
Yeah, how about the fact that the 49ers were using journeymen corners, 3rd-string and worse because of injuries. The only thing more injured than the Eagles WR corps is the 49ers defensive backfield.
-- Receiver numbers from this game:
18 rec., 193 yards, 1 TD = The Eagles entire team
17 rec., 155 yards, 0 TD = The 49ers entire team less George Kittle
15 rec., for 183 yards, 1 TD = George Kittle this game.
15 rec. for 157 yards, 0 TD = George Kittle’s last 4 games prior to this (3 of them being the playoffs last season)
If you faced Kittle this week…what can you do? You can’t control the schedule. If you faced him Week 3, you wouldn’t have -- he didn’t play. But you faced him Week 4 and got this in your face? How can you down yourself or your FF team if he made you lose?
-- Let’s add another line to the comparison above…
19 rec., 139 yards, 1 TD = Zach Ertz entire 2020 (4 games)
Note = The 49ers are terrific against the TE, thus part of Ertz’s (4-9-0/5) game here. Trouble for Mike Gesicki this week (5) and then issues for Tyler Higbee Week 6.
-- This SF-DST just got rolled over by a horrific Eagles offense that has no O-Line left. The 49ers have been beating up on the NY QBs prior. This 49ers-defense is in huge trouble ahead due to injuries and age and a weak D-C.
Weeks 6-13, you cannot use them with any confidence…or use them at all. If you got the SF-DST, you need to flip it/prepare for the crash coming. Week 5 v. Fitzpatrick is their last real chance for a long while/ROS.
Snap Counts of Interest:
67 = McKinnon
06 = J Wilson
64 = Aiyuk
50 = Bourne
37 = Tr Taylor
25 = Deebo
48 = M Sanders
09 = B Scott
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 4: Game Analysis: Bills 30, Raiders 23
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
Now, let’s talk about ‘my’ Bills…
Did you know the Bills have gotten out to a 10+ point lead at some point in each game in the 1st-half of every game they’ve played in 2020? They get up big quickly, then their opponents close the gap a little…and then Buffalo punches the accelerator and wins.
In this game, Buffalo got up 17-6 late 2nd-quarter…but the Raiders scored right before the half to close the gap. Las Vegas never led in this game but closed the gap to 1-point after three quarters (17-16). Buffalo scored on the first play of the 4th-quarter and then again to swing back up by 14. A late garbage TD made it a 7-point win for the/my Bills.
The Bills have a tough next two weeks, facing the AFC finalists from last season – at TEN and then hosting KC the next two weeks. The good news for Buffalo is – Tennessee will play this week’s game (if) with a lot of players out due to COVID. Then, if you want to have a chance to beat KC…you want to have them come to you, on a Thursday Night game (if only there could be rabid Bills’ Mafia there).
Buffalo is (4-0) and we project them (6-1) hosting New England Week 8…with a chance to put a bullet in the Patriots’ AFC East decades of dominance.
Las Vegas was headed to the playoffs after Week 2, two wins right away…but they’re now (2-2) and have to go to KC this week. We still see 9-10 wins here and a wild card. Losing to Buffalo is not a crime.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Josh Allen (24-34 for 288 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) is still playing great. Some of the throws he made in this game…unreal…almost as good as Justin Herbert this week. Allen is working very Mahomes-like…confident, aggressive, successful, down field flicks on the money.
The Bills are 5th in scoring in the NFL, 4th most total yards, 2nd-most passing yards, 3rd-most passing TDs. You want in on this passing game for FF.
Stefon Diggs (6-115-0/7) is obvious…he is very good and playing with the best QB he’s ever been with.
But what works after Diggs?
Cole Beasley (3-32-1/4) is Mr. Reliable and he works solidly for FF. But Allen’s real #2 look over any of the other WRs, TEs, RBs is John Brown (4-42-0/5).
I love Brown as the ‘buy low’ of the week. People overlook Buffalo for offense in general. Diggs captures everyone’s attention first/last. Brown has a boring name…’John Brown’, how can that be exciting/any good? He had a ‘meh’ FF game here. He had a zero FF game Week 3 (due to early injury and out). You can slide in and snag him as a WR3-level acquisition potentially. You want to pay low, not buy at all costs. He’s a WR2 hopeful.
Here’s the way we could look at Brown’s season-to-date…
1) We ignore Week 3 completely…he left early with no catches, didn’t return.
2) Do the math on Weeks 1-2 and 4.
3) Add a TD to Week 4 because he caught a TD, at the goal line, he was in…but due to some inconclusive replay they ruled it down at the one-inch line. Had that been ruled a TD, then in Brown’s three real game performances in 2020, he would have a TD each game.
Using points #2 and #3 above, Brown is averaging in 2020:
4.7 rec. (7.0 targets), 64.7 yards, 1.0 TDs per game…that turns into 12.5 FF PPG/17.2 PPR PPG. That would place him 13th among WRs in non-PPR scoring per game this season and 19th in PPR.
You’d like the talented #2 WR in a top 5 offense with a sudden top 3 QB.
-- I’m looking fort a sign that Dawson Knox (2-16-0/3) might go for the ride in all this as well, but not yet. He was hurt Week 3 and split time Week 4.
He’ll probably have a 2 TD game ahead and go back on ‘sleeper’ lists for FF analysts, he’ll pull an Ebron/Tonyan/Sample, etc.
There’s hope here if Josh Allen continues flying high. Knox looks just like/better than all the Tonyan, Schultz, Sample type guys in on-field ‘look’/movement…talented and athletic, but the TE has not been a star for Buffalo under Allen -- BUT fill-in TEs had 3 total TDs Week 3 when Know was out. This is a new Josh Allen…it might click any week now, but still more TE2 than TE1 but TE1 hope among the TE2/3s.
-- We all think Derek Carr (32-44 for 311 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) sucks, but he’s actually been pretty nice this year. 8 TDs/0 INT, 73.6% Comp. Pct., and 273.8 passing yards per game. What else do you want from the guy? He’s a solid #2 QB right now in fantasy, a consideration if the matchup works.
-- With Edwards/Ruggs out and losing all their momentum, they’ve given rise to Nelson Agholor (4-44-1/5) as the Raiders’ new #1 WR. And I don’t think that’s going to change anytime soon.
Agholor is playing lights out. Had his best game of 2020 (or 2019) here, and 4-44-1-/4 looks weaker-good…but note he lost three catches on penalties this game, all defensive penalties that were either taken to get the 1st-down, so he lost the play. And one of his negated catches was a sweet 49-yard TD.
Agholor’s line in this game should’ve been: 7-103-2/7…and then everyone would be flying in as if he were Tim Patrick but better, instead Patrick is being chased after like a god and Agholor is ignored. If Ruggs/Edwards stay out…Agholor is the guy…and I’m not sure he won’t be when they return.
I love Bryan Edwards, but he opened the door for Agholor and Nelson busted in and may send Edwards to a backup/part-time role the rest of the season. When the rookie WRs were all healthy earlier in the season…they all rotated anyway, so I suspect Agholor will be a starter from here on in but rotating around in/out and having upside capped.
-- Josh Jacobs (15-48-0, 3-25-0/4) scored 3 TDs opening week and was declared an FF god. Since Week 1, his last three games, Jacobs has posted:
19.0 carries, 69.0 rush yards (3.8 ypc), 0.0 rush TDs, 3.0 rec., 18.0 rec. yards, 0.0 TDs per game.
That’s 8.7 FF PPG/11.7 PPR PPG…meaning since Week 2, Jacobs is #30 non-PPR in total points, #28 in PPR total points among RBs…even worse rankings if you go to a PPG calculation. He’s been an RB4 the past three games.
-- Devin Singletary (18-56-1, 5-21-0/7) feels way less sexy than Jacobs, but since Week 2…Devin has been the #18 non-PPR scorer among RBs, #22 in total PPR points in that span.
Singletary is tied for 6th in most catches this season by a running back.
We’ll see if he keeps a 70/30 split over the great Zack Moss, when Moss returns this week or next.
Snap Counts of Interest:
67 = Agholor
66 = Zay Jones
50 = Renfrow
03 = Doss
56 = Diggs
52 = Brown
36 = G Davis
21 = McKenzie
18 = Beasley
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 4: Game Analysis: Ravens 31, Football Team 17
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
Is anyone surprised by this outcome? Did anyone learn anything new about these teams?
The Ravens cruised.
Dwayne Haskins sucks (and his career ended).
Everything that happened is mostly irrelevant because Washington will never play a game with Haskins starting on purpose again and Chase Young was out for TFC’s defense.
This is almost a waste of my time to re-watch.
…but we need to touch on the Kyle Allen affect ahead for FF.
Actually, I was surprised by the outcome here a little…despite Haskins…despite Chase Young out…Ravens coming off an embarrassment on MNF – Washington kinda put up a tiny fight. The Ravens didn’t totally steam roll them by 25+ like I thought they might/have done to many recent weaker opponents. And Haskins threw for 300+ yards.
Washington beat Philly opening day. Washington led Cleveland in the 4th-quarter Week 3 before Haskins gave it away. Washington, for a bad team, actually isn’t that bad (thus the Haskins change) and they played superior Baltimore not-so-awful.
The F-Team’s defense is made to give the Rams fits Week 5. The Rams are S-A-W-F-T and Washington is high pressure. I like the F-Team to cover and maybe outright win this week. If they do, they go to (2-3) with NYG-DAL-BYE-NYG-DET-CIN the next 6 weeks…all winnable games/weak opponents (which TFC is too). Washington could very well be (5-5) heading into a killer part of their schedule starting Week 12. They could also be (3-7) or (7-3). At least there is hope in D.C. for TFC.
Baltimore continues to destroy regular season opponents, except KC last week. They are (15-1) in their last 16 regular season games. CIN and at PHI the next two weeks before their BYE, so make it (17-1) in their last 18 games two weeks from now. I can’t wait for their showdown game with PIT in Week 8.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- So, what happens to Washington with Kyler Allen now starting? Well, first things first…please note that Kyle Allen kinda sucks as well, just not as much as Dwayne Haskins (32-45 for 314 yards, 0 TD/0 INT). It’s not like a great QB is taking over. Things get a bit better, probably ‘safer’ for trying to win NFL games. It’s likely biding time to Alex Smith taking over.
What happens for FF purposes?
One thing I wanted to point out from this game, it’s why Washington kept it close and why Haskins passed for 300+ yards – what a great game of screen passes, tunnel screen passes, bubble screen passes by TFC. A very smart game plan by O-C Scott (Spawn of Norv) Turner. If they deploy that strategy ahead…it’s going to good for the short passing game winners (the RBs specially) from this week (and great for Joe Mixon in Week 5 v. BAL if Zac Taylor pays attention to this game tape).
Washington completed 32 passes here…11 to the RBs. Much of Isaiah Wright’s 4 catches were at/behind the LOS almost like he was an RB. Very smart when you’re under gunned in an NFL game.
Kyle Allen winners and losers for FF:
1) WINNER Terry McLaurin (10-118-0/14) – Allen wore out D.J. Moore last year, made him a star due to volume. You’d assume he’ll do the same for McLaurin.
Note – WAS has two games in the next 4 weeks with NYG…James Bradberry on McLaurin isn’t going to be that juicy for Terry for FF, potentially.
McLaurin as a WR1 the rest of the year is on the table now, at least.
2) WINNER J.D. McKissic (2-6-0, 7-40-0/8) – He can be a HUGE PPR winner here…from that standpoint that if you want a James White-type guy, here he is…could have anywhere from 3-10 catches per game as an easy throw out of the backfield – like this game. Kyle Allen is used to throwing to Christian McCaffrey a lot, so here would be his guy for that.
3) SMALL WINNER Antonio Gibson (13-46-1. 4-82-0/5) -- wins by just being in a little better offense. He was doing fine already.
4) UNKNOWN Steven Sims (DNP) v. Isaiah Wright (4-20-0/5) – I don’t know if Sims was benched Week 3 due to his toe injury, or by preference. I think Sims may be on ‘the outs’. If he’s not, he’d get in on these tunnel and bubble screens and be a WR3/flex excitement again. It’s unclear his future right now.
Wright, for his part, is solid but he’s nowhere near as exciting as Sims. But Sims may be toast with the staff here. I’m really not sure. I’m getting mixed signals.
5) NEUTRAL Logan Thomas (1-8-0/4) – No change. Haskins threw a lot to Thomas, blindly. Allen probably won’t. Lesser targets, better QB…net neutral. Greg Olsen nor Ian Thomas flourished with Allen in Carolina last year.
Note…this is the same QB, O-C, and head coach from Carolina 2019. Comparisons and assumptions of 2019 and 2020 are warranted and valid.
-- I thought the Ravens might give J.K. Dobbins (5-16-0, 1-1-0/1) as push here after they got embarrassed on MNF, maybe a refresh of the offense was needed/desired – nope. He got the opposite of a push. He got his least work all year. Barely played when it mattered. Back into a holding pattern.
-- Note, Marquise Brown (4-86-0/8) has no TDs this season, but he caught a pass here and turned it into a long play and near-TD – falling a yard short. He’s fallen a yard or so short of a TD 2-3x already this season. Don’t write him off for lack of TDs. He’s due for a 100+ yard game with multi-TDs.
This week against the Bengals lines up nicely.
-- We all respect the Ravens defense, especially their pass defense, but…
They are #26 in pass yards per game allowed this season.
Opposing QBs have completed 67.3% of their passes against them with 6 TDs/2 INTs. They are middle of the pack in sacks.
This pass defense may not be as great as we think.
Also, Mahomes makes up a chunk of the bad stats. Minus the KC game…they are more upper half of the league in pass D things. It will be interesting to see if rookie Joe Burrow is thrown for a loop…or works through them without much struggle.
The Ravens-DST has a nice schedule ahead…only a Week 7 BYE, Week 8 v. PIT, Week 12 at PIT, Week 13 v. DAL are real threats to them – and the PIT games are usually slogs/wars.
The Rams-DST is a good pairing, but more achievable…the Bills-DST picked up ahead is a step in the right direction. Bills v. Jets Week 7 when BAL is on a BYE.
Snap Counts of Interest:
39 = McKissic
31 = Gibson
22 = Edwards
21 = Dobbins
14 = Ingram
