R.C. Fischer

FFM

14 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 5: Patriots 25, Texans 22

The Patriots were my Survivor pool pick of the week. I didn’t love it, but I didn’t love much of anything (bettor wise) this week and going against Houston is not a bad way to try and survive…you’d think.

I shoulda lost…I shoulda been wiped out of my big Survivor pool. The Texans should’ve beaten the Patriots here. And there was some luck involved for Houston, but honestly the Texans dropped several INTs plus a dropped TD pass (leading to an FG instead)…plus missed XPs. This was Houston’s game, they led 22-9 early 3rd-quarter, but they botched it away in the end.

Houston gave CLE a tussle Week 2. They shoulda beat NE here. Had Tyrod Taylor stayed healthy, the Texans might be in the AFC South race to the end. They aren’t terrible. However, they just lost LT Laremy Tunsil for several weeks…so, the fantasy is all slipping away. In the end, the Texans should win 3-5 games. They’re scrappy good.

New England (2-3 now) should’ve lost and sunk to (1-4)…with all that free agent spending getting them nowhere. This team stinks and is uninspired by Belichick. It’s a sinking ship. The Pats are on their way to 5 +/- wins and a lot of soul searching…but the owner will do nothing but watch the ship sink, slowly (while getting special massages in Florida to ease the pain). Belichick has earned the right to go down with the ship.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- The Patriots backfield report…

Damien Harris (14-58-1) is the starter, and he looks terrific running the ball. The problem is…he’s not involved in the passing game (for PPR peeps) and the Pats O-Line is devastated with injury right now…and Harris is a little banged up. He’s the for-sure main carry guy but questionable this week and in a bad environment for FF production, facing a top run defense (DAL).

Rhamondre Stevenson (11-23-0) got sprinkled in to get himself up to speed, but he looked very tentative…like a rookie would. He is the hammer…the short yardage, late game salt away bull…eventually. If Harris is out this week, Stevenson would take over main carry duties…but might be over his head at this point.

Brandon Bolden (2-25-0, 4-6-0/4) is playing a lot of the James White role with White gone. 4.7 targets per game and 4.3 catches per game since White left. If you see NE in a lot of passing situations this week, with a Dallas team that doesn’t cover the RB well…Bolden might get 5+ catches in a game script gone his way. He’s a long shot sleeper PPR start Week 6…not a sure thing.

 -- I’ve written about/spoken of Brandon Bolden for Week 6 as some PPR hope more than a few times this week, but you know who might be a better flyer Week 6 play…and beyond, for bye weeks? A guy I’ve never mentioned before, I don’t think… What about David Johnson (2-5-0, 5-46-0/6)?

What caught my attention here is…DJ is the 3rd-down back for HOU, but he’s also lining up as a wideout in 4-5 receiver sets and they are actually throwing him real passes on real routes. I mean, first Cordarrelle Patterson…and now this?

First, watch three highlight plays from this game and (a) tell me DJ doesn’t still have some juice in the tank, and (b) notice the different ways they get him the ball…

It’s an 11-minute video but you need only skip to two sections for 30 seconds…

0:40: Back-to-back plays they will show you

4:16: 3rd & long conversion

https://youtu.be/MgHmJVGtbqA

With Davis Mills at QB…DJ is starting to get used in the passing game more – the 6th most targeted RB in the NFL the last two weeks (10 targets). When you get the ball in the hands of DJ in the open field, magic could happen.

Most of these 3rd-down/satellite backs are in a similar boat…

They play 30-40% of the snaps in games. They play more if more passing downs/hurry up offense is needed. But the last 2 weeks, since Davis Mills, DJ has gone from 30-40% of the snaps to 50%+…in part, because he’s running real routes along with backfield work.

Johnson has led the Houston backfield in snap count for four straight weeks.

We’re moving DJ to our ‘outta nowhere’ RB of the week (Week 6) along with Brandon Bolden for the same vibe…team in a deficit, likely, needing to throw a bunch and they are their team’s main guy for that.

But wait…there’s more. As an added bonus to your purchase of DJ3K, you also get…

1) He faces Arizona next week. If you don’t understand what that means, then…

2) You could run with a Bolden, McKissic, Hines, etc., over DJ this week…pick your satellite back poison…but only one of those names could be traded to a better place in a week or two+. Johnson’s contract is over after this season and if Houston isn’t going anywhere in 2021…why aren’t the Chargers or Chiefs or Ravens or Bills on the line?

David Johnson could be a team’s Kareem Hunt…or Cordarrelle Patterson. And he’d cost just a 6th-7th-rounder. But I’m sure Devonta Freeman will be fine…

 -- Davis Mills (21-29 for 312 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT) outplayed Mac Jones (23-30 for 231 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) here. When the Pats got down, and Jones had to play some real QB throwing downfield…he should’ve had 3-4 picks, but the Texans defenders can’t catch things throw right at them, apparently.

As of now…I was WAY off on Davis Mills. I thought he was a joke. He’s actually playing good football. He’s Taylor Heinicke-ish, not a franchise guy at this stage, but I thought he’d be a flat-out bust. He is not. He out-Jimmy Garoppolo’d Mac Jones here…in a battle of QBs who must have gone to the Jimmy Garoppolo training program as youth…or are the secret offspring of Mr. Garoppolo after he had Jimmy. They both play the same, throw the same…only Mills has a little more athleticism than Jones.

It’s possible Justin Fields is the 6th best QB from this 2021 draft right now…he can’t complete a basic forward pass, while Mills is dropping 300+ yards on Belichick…as a rookie…

 -- Chris Moore (5-109-1/5) got a floater deep from Mills, perfectly placed…either genius or luck (looked like luck) as the two defenders couldn’t believe the ball placement as they tried to get to it…which left them out of position after the catch, so Moore snatched and took off for a 67-yard TD. You decide: https://youtu.be/7aunNz6GaPQ

Outside of that, it was a basic day for Moore. He’s a solid hand #4-5-6 WR for a team, not an emerging star.

He also dropped a TD pass in the end zone that turned into a field goal, so he kinda cost them the game, but let’s not talk about that.

 -- The last 3 games for Hunter Henry (6-75-1/8)…

5.0 rec. (6.3 targets), 47.7 yards, 0.67 TDs per game. He’s the 6th-highest scoring PPR TE in PPG since Week 3…tied for 6th with Kelce-Pitts.

There seems to be a growing connection with Henry-Jones, as Jonnu Smith fades off into the distance.

 -- In the last 3 weeks, the Patriots defense has been pushed around by Jameis Winston and Davis Mills but held Tom Brady down in the rain. How can I trust this DST unless it’s a supreme matchup? Week 7 v. NYJ is my last dance with them, if I were to use them again.

Snap Counts of Interest:

31 = D Johnson

26 = Ingram

13 = Lindsay

54 = Conley

50 = Cooks

37 = C Moore

24 = Bolden

22 = Stevenson

21 = Dam Harris

40 = HHenry

40 = Jonnu

R.C. Fischer

FFM

13 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 5: Bears 20, Raiders 9

I loved the Raiders to win this game, covering as the favorite. Shows what I know…they got their arses kicked in the worst game they’ve played this season. Credit the Bears…winners of three of their last 4. I’m not a fan of Nagy or this Bears team in general, but I have to give them some credit – they are beating the teams they are supposed to. And this game was a road upset for them.

The Raiders really never showed up, and it was a penalty festival (like most all games Week 5), and most breaks went against LV…and went in favor of CHI --  but Vegas was bad, the Bears were less bad and got the win.

The Bears have a huge home game with Green Bay this week…and no one is giving them much of a chance to win (4.5 point underdogs at home)…but the Packers aren’t as good as people think, and the Bears aren’t as bad as people (including me) think. The Bears defense is playing solid ball and the Packers have multiple O-Line injuries to see how they go throughout the week. If the Pack is missing two OLs again (Jenkins and Myers) then I’ll probably take the home dog with points.

If the Bears beat GB, they pull into a tie for first in the NFC North…and hold the current tiebreaker. Win or loss this week, probably loss, the Bears schedule will eat them up ahead – we project they end up with around 6 wins this season.

The Raiders fell to (3-2) and have now lost their head coach. I’m thinking the loss of Gruden and move to Rich Bisaccia is at worst ‘no difference’ to the team, but I think there’s an upside because Bisaccia is a better coach and communicator than Gruden. I would not be shocked if the Raiders go out and whoop Denver this week and continue with a hopeful run at a playoff spot. We are projecting they will short of the playoffs at 8 wins, but it’s still early/fluid for all our record projections…and we need to see

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- An unusual RB situation for Chicago in this game…one I didn’t fully realize happened. Damien Williams (16-69-1, 2-20-0/3) started and played all the way through the first couple of series. Rookie Khalil Hebert (18-75-0) sprinkled in after that…but then as the game went on, we saw more and more Herbert.

At first, I thought it was to give Williams a break…but then it became clear they were splitting. To start the 2nd-half, Herbert started as they exchanged the two RBs in and out all the rest of the game.

If you only watched the 1st-half, you’d think Williams was the clear main role starter. If you watched the 2nd-half only, you’d think Herbert was the lead in a 60/40 split.

Best way to describe the Chicago RB situation…it’s a 50/50-ish split of some kind between Williams/Herbert…on a team that will run the ball a lot because they have to.

In the end, in this game…

34 snaps = Herbert

31 snaps = Dam. Williams

 -- The Bears have to run the ball a lot because Justin Fields (12-20 for 111 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 3-4-0) is not ready yet (and may never be close to the guy they hope). This was a pretty sad game, another in a string, for Fields. They are basically having to game plan around his inability to throw passes like a real NFL QB.

Most all his passes are forced to his first read, and then the throws vary from ‘off’ to ‘way off’. He’s playing like a rookie, a poorly coached one. A heavy run game is the Bears only hope…run game and defense.

And Fields hasn’t been a threat to run…he looks tentative to run…and when it is a designed run play, he looks ‘small’/thin and easy to tackle. He’s not scaring anyone with his feet.

 -- Because Fields is so bad, Allen Robinson (4-32-0/5) is, and has been, an FF-dud all season. Doomed to be a WR3-4 with Fields. I love Darnell Mooney (3-35-0/5), but this exactly why I didn’t draft him in redraft and traded him as hot as I could in Dynasty this August…he’s wonderful, and he has a decent connection with Fields, but Fields is so rough right now you can’t use the WRs with any FF confidence.

Neither are worth buying low on because their current owners are probably:

1) Close to cutting Mooney, and

2) Still adore the ARob name so they hope he’ll turn vs. trading as a WR3-4. Tim Patrick is a better name to own than Allen Robinson, and Patrick is often on waivers right now.

 -- Speaking of useless WRs…

I love Bryan Edwards (2-22-0/5) but he continues to get random, low targeting…and then in his game he dropped a leaping 20+ yard TD that could’ve juiced his visibility with the team. Then in the 2nd-quarter comeback effort he dropped a wide-open 40+ yard bomb right in his hands, but he looked to see where the defense was and took his eye off the ball.

Of course, he made a couple nice/clutch grabs late in the 4th-quarter but not enough to make up for the other issues.

Tim Patrick is working nicely. Bryan Edwards is not. I’ve decided to make Tim Patrick the litmus test of WRs this week, for some reason.

 -- Since Week 2 (Wks2-5), Darren Waller (4-45-0/8) is the #10 PPG PPR TE in Fantasy…behind David Njoku, Hunter Henry, and Mike Gesicki. Yet, every Knox or Schultz owner is dying to trade them + something to get Waller. You shouldn’t. I don’t think it’s a blip…I think Waller is good-not-great for FF in Vegas. If he were with the Chargers, he’d be more awesome. With Vegas…a nice TE1, with 10-15 other TEs claiming the same week-to-week.

You’re holding onto that opening week MNF game for Waller too much. Cleanse your soul.

Things may change with the new coach, we’ll see.

 -- The Raiders started Amik Robertson (7 tackles) at CB this game, and he was not good at that…but was good for IDP tackles…7 tackles in each of his last two games. He’s probably not long for the world of starting CBs, however.

 -- The Bears-DST is getting better…

#7 in NFL PPG allowed

#12 rushing yards allowed

#12 in passing yards allowed

#8 in total yards allowed

#1 in sacks

#5 in DST scoring

They held down CIN, DET, LV this season. They got popped by CLE, LAR. They are flowing with the quality of opponent. The rankings look great, but I’m not fully buying it at this point.

Snap Counts of Interest:

46 = Jacobs

12 = Drake

51 = Kmet

25 = Jimmy Graham (still in the NFL, FYI)

34 = Herbert

31 = Dam Williams

R.C. Fischer

FFM

13 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 5: Steelers 27, Broncos 19

This was not a battle of two of the better teams in football…

The Steelers were the better team, but that’s not saying much. Pitt led 24-6 in the 4th-quarter, and everyone thought it was over. Then the Broncos sprung to life with two TDs in about 5 minutes to cut the game to 24-19.

The Steelers drove down for a field goal and an 8-point lead with 2:20 left, and then Denver drove down again to 1st & goal with under a minute left – 4 chances to get a TD and then for the 2-point conversion…but they could not get the TD part with 4 shots at it, and ‘ball game’.

The Steelers win to stop the bleeding of their season, they are now (2-3) looking to get a win Sunday night hosting Seattle to get to (3-3) before their Week 7 bye…and getting Geno not Russ is just what the doctor ordered for Pitt. It won’t be enough, in the end, we’re projecting the Steelers to finish (7-10).

Denver started out (3-0) but has lost their last two (finally playing better teams) and are now (3-2). We see all kinds of problems with this Denver team. They have kind of a do-or-die Week 6 hosting Las Vegas (3-2) this week. It’s a big game for the AFC West positioning…and for the wild card down the road between these two teams. We project Denver to hit 8-9 wins, but more leaning 7-8 wins. Week 6 is a big week if the Broncos want to be a wild card this season. It’s not a very good team, but they have a schedule pushing them to .500+ if they can capitalize…and I’m not sure they can.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- This was a really bad/lucky game by Ben Roethlisberger (15-25 for 253 yards, 2 TDs/0 INTs). He’s fading away. He’s no longer reading the coverage and making sharp throws to secondary and tertiary receiver options. He’s guessing ahead at preplanned throws…he’s throwing to spots hoping the receiver is there before the defender.

Ben threw zero picks in the game, but he nearly threw 4-5 of them in reality. So many quick throws ahead of the receiver’s break…and the defenders often had a beat on it but just missed it or dropped the pick. And this wasn’t the O-Line letting Ben down,  forcing his quick passing ways so that he had a reason to get rid of the ball fast…no, this was the best performance game by the O-Line this season, and Ben was still acting like the football was a hot potato too often.  

Ben is still a former great QB, so some of his lofted timing passes were thrown out to the right spot for the receiver to run under and catch…but as many times the throws were way off the mark on the guess where they’ll be toss.

Ben’s talent fade is still ‘risk on the table’ for the related FF assets as we go this season.

 -- Ben’s guessing game/passing game FF-helps two WRs and one RB. Ben is only throwing where he has comfort on where he thinks/knows the WR is headed to in their route…or where he can toss a jump ball with the hopes the receiver comes down with…or his real favorite = the safety valve to the RB.

Dionte Johnson (2-72-1/2) is who Ben is most comfortable with knowing where he is…typically Diontae gets the bulk of the targets but after the early bomb TD, Diontae didn’t see a pass again until the 4th-quarter. Very odd. Good coverage by DEN to take away his comfort guy.

However, Ben has Chase Claypool (5-13-0-1/6) in times of trouble/can throw it up and hope for the best. This was the best game, technically, that Claypool may have played in the NFL…he ran some great routes and was wide open for Ben on a few occasions, and CC is so big that Big Ben can see him/has a lot of radius to throw to. Also, when Ben sees CC has one-on-one deep, he’ll try and guess a deep ball out his way…and Claypool is good enough to win some of those. But here it was more route work and Ben having time to find it/let it develop a few times.

This game of chanced Ben has with Claypool is going to have some misfires/good coverage/too much pass rush leading to games where CC has 1-3 catches for 25 yards and you are FF-mad, but then there will be these games where Claypool looks like a million backs and makes plays and makes it all worth it (like this one).

JuJu being gone for good…it’s a big help to funnel even more work to the trusted Diontae and Claypool duo.

Seattle has a limited pass rush and a weak secondary – it might be a sweet Week 6 for DJ and CC.

 -- The RB that benefits from Ben’s reduced state is obviously Najee Harris (23-122-1, 2-20-0/5)…the dump pass in-crisis option is huge for Ben, but he didn’t need to do that much here because Ben actually had time…and the run game was finally working.

Opposing teams have slammed the door on Najee all season…and then he gashed Denver. Why? For the first time this season, Najee had holes/options running straight ahead…he didn’t have to try (and fail) to dance everything outside.

Either the Steelers O-Line got good all of a sudden…or the Broncos run defense stinks. I would blame Denver’s run defense. It’s ranked well in the NFL, but it hasn’t played anyone either.

 -- Javonte Williams (8-61-0, 3-25-0/3) is the better rookie RB talent over Najee, to me…but not to his NFL team. The Steelers are all in on Najee, while Denver is playing footsie with a duo of Javonte and Melvin Gordon (9-34-0, 2-9-0/2).

The offensive pace instantly picks up with Javonte in the game…and when Williams gets the ball dumped to him in the passing game, he always seems on the verge of breaking things for a longer play.

The RB-duo concept is cute when Denver is winning, but now that they are losing…people are getting restless for more offensive firepower. We may not be far away from Javonte as the 70/30 lead…or 80/20 with Gordon cut or traded at the deadline to free Javonte of the Gordon cloud. Gordon ain’t taking a secondary role, he’ll piss and moan about it until he’s moved.

When Mike Boone is back active, that might be the moment Denver can think of such things. A few more losses in a row would probably force a change as well. It’s possible Denver may lose their next two and force change to occur…

 -- This was another reminder of just how good Courtland Sutton (7-120-1/11) is. Too bad Teddy is not more consistent…because Sutton should be a star already. Sutton finally got his first TD, after weeks of knocking on the door. He had a shot at a 2nd TD but Teddy is Teddy and threw a pick to end the game in front of Sutton.

 -- Tim Patrick (7-89-0/9) is the #35 in PPR PPG among WRs so far this season…ahead of DeVonta Smith, Christian Kirk, Tyler Boyd, Marvin Jones, Marquez Callaway among others. But Patrick is usually on waivers and not the other guys I just listed.

 -- Kendall Hinton (2-25-1/3) is now the Denver #3 WR in three WR sets…so happy for him. He played a solid game here, in on 65% of the snaps. He’s not ready for FF usage yet, but he’s starting to climb the ladder towards it and out of obscurity.

 -- The Steelers-DST played well here for 3+ quarters and then were an open door that allowed Denver back in the game. They are good…they are a good start Week 6 v. SEA because of Geno…but then a Week 7 bye…and then a pretty rough stretch the rest of the season.

Final Analysis: https://youtu.be/O2TRU3fgGr4

Snap Counts of Interest:

60 = Diontae

36 = Claypool

25 = JuJu

16 = Cody White

32 = Freiermuth

25 = Ebron

57 = Patrick

54 = Sutton

39 = Hinton

36 = M Gordon

25 = Javonte

19 = Caden Sterns

Ross Jacobs

FFM

13 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 5: Bills 38, Chiefs 20 

Well, the secret is out. Those of us here at FFM have known for a while that all was not well with the Chiefs and that their problems would catch up to them eventually. We also knew ahead of the crowd that the Bills were a team on the rise, the better, tougher, deeper Chiefs. Now the media and casual fans know too.

I'm going to start with the Bills because I don't like how the media is framing this as a Chiefs letdown or something is wrong with the Chiefs. They do have their problems, but this is the same team as last year, the same team as the year before that. They are a good team. But this wasn't them blowing the game or playing worse or any such nonsense. This was the Buffalo Bills going into hostile Kansas City and kicking the ever living shit out of them.

This is a Bills team that isn't afraid or intimidated by the Chiefs. This is a Bills team that is the deepest, most complete, most well-balanced, most well-coached, most disciplined team in the league. And they just destroyed one of their next closest challengers on the road. This isn't about the Chiefs falling down. This is about the Bills rising up.

I don't have enough good things to say about Buffalo. They are incredible and so fun to watch on both sides of the ball. They now lead the league in offensive ppg at 34.4 and they also lead the league in defensive ppg at 12.8. They are outscoring their opponents by 21.6 points per game on average. That is bonkers. And when you look at their schedule you realize they only have one more game against a team anywhere close to their level, and that's the defending champs in December. It's entirely possible that they won't lose another game all year. They are that good.

Ok, let's talk about the Chiefs. We've already discussed this quite a bit the last few weeks and even going back to last year. The Chiefs have one of the great advantages in football. They have a cheat code in Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes is not the problem. Anyone that says Mahomes hasn't had the best year, or Mahomes doesn't look right, or anything like that has no idea what they are talking about.

The problem is that this Chiefs team has been getting their asses bailed out by Mahomes for years now. They constantly make mistakes, run stupid plays, let the opponent score on them over and over, and 9 times out of 10 Mahomes is able to save them at the end of the game with some miracle because he is the best player in the league. But one player can only carry a team so long. Look at Russell Wilson and the Seahawks. They win 10 or 11 games every single year, but it's not because of the defense, or the run game, or the coaches. It's just Russell is amazing.

You want more examples? What happened to Indianapolis the year Manning got hurt? Bottom of the league. What happened to the Patriots when Brady left? Collapsed from a perennial 13 game winner to average. What's happening to the Saints without Brees? Same thing.

Elite QB's can make up for a lot of flaws in an organization, and now we are seeing the Chiefs warts in the light of day.

Andy Reid is an ok coach, not bad, but not the genius he's made out to be. Eric Bieniemy is not a good OC just because he breathes the same air as Mahomes. The defense isn't nearly as menacing when they aren't constantly playing with a lead. Even Kelce and Hill, two elite players, wouldn't be nearly as dominant without Mahomes back there throwing them the ball.

Think of it like this: if you had a child that was learning to walk, but he always held onto furniture or held an adult's hand, he's never going to learn to walk properly. At some point he has to let go of what's holding him up, his crutch, and walk by himself.

The Chiefs are like a child that never lets go. Mahomes has been masking the growing problems and flaws because he is so unbelievably good.

So does that mean the Chiefs are suddenly an average team? No but only because they still have Mahomes. They are still going to win double digit games because of him alone. It just may not be enough to win the division or a Superbowl. Of course things can always break perfectly. Mahomes is still capable of beating any team on any given day. It's just not the most likely scenario anymore.

Let's keep in mind though that they have now played the Browns, Ravens, Chargers, and Bills in the first 5 weeks. Those are all playoff teams with good offenses. They still have the Packers and Cowboys on the schedule, but every other game they will be heavy favorites. The Chiefs should be fine moving forward. They will at least keep it close with the Chargers for the division title and could still pull it out. The difference is that when they play the better teams now, they are no longer the bullies, the giant that's near impossible to bring down. They are mortal, they can be beaten, they are just another good team among many in the AFC.

RC Note: I would like to add…

This (Buffalo) is what happens when you have a superior coach at the head of your organization. Sean McDermott should win a special award for his five years in Buffalo...taking over a bad team, bad organization in perhaps the worst city in the NFL you could take a team over...and he has built them into a dominant force. 

One of the first things McDermott did, first taking over the Buffalo job, was dump Sammy Watkins...as the mainstream clutched their pearls at such nonsense. I knew I liked “Stone Cold’ Sean McDermott right then and there. It would be like if I took over the Bengals and traded Ja’Marr Chase a few weeks later (and I would). 

Ron Rivera took the Panthers to the Super Bowl six years ago, out of nowhere...with a top defense, led by then D-C Sean McDermott. Then McDermott got the Buffalo job and Rivera has had a losing record since. 

McDermott has methodically built the Bills, and I am so glad he got this win to establish the Bills are making a Super Bowl run...and that they are better than KC, regardless. 

Meanwhile, Andy Reid spits out nonsense O-Cs who then go and fail as head coaches (Nick Foles delivered Doug Pederson a miracle Super Bowl, before DP went back to failing...and now Frank Reich is a failure as well from that tree)...but the league LOVES the Andy Reid 'coaching tree’, while no one even bothers with McDermott’s ‘tree’. 

I’m happy for McDermott. 

KC is not dead...they just happened to play the two best teams in football, LAC-BUF, the past few weeks. They will be OK, but they are not the best team in the AFC...nor in the AFC West. 

Fantasy Notes

--Hope you bought more Josh Allen (15-26 for 315 yards, 3 TD/0 INT, 11-59-1) stock early in the season while the mainstream was doubting him. Nothing is going to slow this train down. Allen is a top 5 lock and will be in the running to be #1 all year. He has arguably the easiest schedule of all the top guys as well.

--Before the season started I brought up Dawson Knox (3-117-1/4) to RC and asked him if he thought Knox could become Josh Allen's version of Travis Kelce. They are nearly identical in size and athletic numbers so it seemed like a good idea. RC and I ultimately decided it was unlikely because Knox has displayed poor hands in the past and wasn't being treated like a trusted option.

Five weeks into the season Knox has emerged as Allen's second best option behind Diggs. He is TE2 behind...Kelce. Now before we all get too excited, Knox is not being used the same as Kelce is. Right now he's not getting the same kind of targeting that some of the other TE's are. He's just being incredibly efficient when he does get the ball. Allen is finding him deep down the field most of the time. In this game specifically, Knox got lost in coverage for at least two of his big plays.

I'm not saying to fade him because he's rapidly growing in his connection with Allen. I think this is here to stay. What I am saying is I think the big plays will start to fade off a little but Knox should be able to make up for it with growing target numbers each week. He looks like a bona fide top 5 TE for the rest of the season.

--Make it 4 out of 5 games for Stefon Diggs (2-69-0/5) under 70 yards receiving on the year. The trouble for him right now is that the Bills are blowing people out so badly that Allen doesn't need to throw that much. They get up quickly and then just pound the run to finish the game. Don't worry about it. Diggs is going to get his eventually. He's a fantastic buy-low option at the moment. Still has a lot of name value so he won't come cheaply, but an owner that's starting to panic might be willing to move him in the right deal. Coming into this game he was averaging over 10 targets and game and even with only 5 here he's still averaging 9.4 The yards and TD's will catch up to the targets soon.

--With the rise of Knox and fewer pass attempts by Allen the two receivers behind Diggs have really fallen off hard. Cole Beasley (1-5-0/2) and Emmanuel Sanders (3-54-2/5) have seen their numbers fall off hard in recent weeks. Sanders had a nice day because of his two TD's, but that's not something you can count on. Both guys will continue to be on and off useful, but it's going to be maddening trying to predict their big weeks.

--Zach Moss (11-37-0, 3-55-0/4) is now dominating the snaps and touches between him and Devin Singletary (6-25-0, 1-(-2)-0/2). I don't get it. It doesn't make sense if you've watched them for 5 seconds. But it is what it is. Moss is the back to own here.

*RC NOTE: I mentioned Moss in the TUE Video Q&A (on demand for those that would like to review it...3 hours of goodness). There is a shift/push to have Moss as the lead back for BUF now. I’m still skeptical of Buffalo RBs for FF, for Allen-reasons, but Moss has been productive and is about to get more push...that’s a good thing for FF. 

--The only thing that's changed with the Chiefs in fantasy land is that Clyde Edwards-Helaire sprained his MCL and will be out a few weeks. In his place Darrel Williams (5-27-0, 3-18-0/5) will be the primary replacement and should receive about the same workload as what CEH usually got. If you weren't all that excited about Helaire then I don't see why you'd go wild for Williams. He'll be a back end RB2 option that you hope scores a TD to push him higher, and you will only get a few weeks from him. Don't blow your entire FAAB budget on him. He's a nice temporary pickup and nothing more.

*RC NOTE: We discussed Jerick McKinnon a lot on the Video Q&A last night, check it out on demand if you wish. There’s a window of opportunity here for him. 

--Mecole Hardman (9-76-0/12) somehow pulled down 9 catches here. I was shocked when I saw the stats because I barely remembered him catching the ball at all during the game. I've said for weeks that the Chiefs were trying to push him as the #2 option and here you go. Trouble is he's just not very good. The only reason he got the numbers here was because the Bills were bullying Kelce and playing two deep to keep Tyreek in front of them. It opened up the middle for easy throws to Hardman.

Other teams may try to copy this approach, but it likely won't work as well for them because they don't have the Bills personnel. I don't think this is the start of any big Hardman breakout. He was just the beneficiary of the Buffalo game plan.

--The big debut of Josh Gordon (1-11-0/1) resulted in one catch on one target. That number will likely grow as Gordon gets more acclimated with the team, but I still have my doubts about how high he can go. One interesting note with him...RC and I were texting while watching the game and when the announcers said Gordon's name for his catch we both thought it was 6'6” 240 Jody Fortson at first. Gordon looks huge, more like a TE than a WR. Not sure if that's a good thing or a bad thing. The size and muscle might rob him of his speed. I couldn't get a good feel for him though as his snaps were so limited. Going to be keeping an eye on him obviously.

*RC Note: DST talk…

Everyone is killing the Chiefs defense, but note that they have faced CLE-BAL-LAC-PHI-BUF so far this season...no break at all for KC. This week they get Taylor Heinicke. I’m not suggesting that the KC-DST is something great in hiding, but may not be as bad as everyone thinks...and that Heinicke may not be that special just because he is facing KC. 

HOLD the Buffalo-DST through their Week 7 bye, and pounce on them if anyone drops them...and look to trade FOR them in a deal Week 7 to an owner who would let the on-a-bye DST go. The schedule for Buffalo-DST from Week 8 on is AMAZING...and the Bills defense is TERRIFIC. 

IDP Notes

--One of the most impressive rookies so far this year has to be Greg Rousseau (5 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT). He is growing by leaps and bounds every week. He has 18 tackles and 3 sacks already this year despite playing about 50% of the snaps so far. He's a big part of why Buffalo's defense has become so dominant this year because last year all they lacked was a pass rush. No longer. Rousseau looks like the real deal. He's got the size, speed, and strength of a prototypical 4-3 defensive end. The only reason he fell in the draft was his inconsistent play and some character questions. So far those haven't been an issue at all. Fantastic pickup by the Bills.

Snap Counts of Interest

55 = Dawson Knox

22 = Reggie Gilliam

42 = Zach Moss

15 = Devin Singletary

R.C. Fischer

FFM

12 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 5: Cowboys 44, Giants 20

It’s not worth reading a ton into this game, the performance/outputs…because this started out a fistfight but one-by-one the Giants key players suffered fluke injuries and pretty quickly into the game…Jones-Barkley-Golladay was replaced by Glennon-Booker-Collin Johnson. Hard to win with that drop off. This report will mainly focus on the FF fallout of the NYG injuries ahead.

But I want to credit the Giants for fighting with all they had, despite the circumstances. Midway through the 3rd-quarter it was only 17-13 Dallas…but the in-game injuries proved too much to overcome, the dam broke, and it turned into a Dallas blowout – but that’s not where this was headed initially.

If I were a Giants fan, I would be mad at my injury luck…but I would not blame or look to change Joe Judge. He nearly pulled off a miracle division title last year, without Saquon (which is now normal) and then bad-Daniel Jones and no O-Line…and no WRs. Doug Pederson screwed them…or they would have had it (remember that Week 17 event?). I think NYG was in line to pull off the upset here too, but the injury gods screwed them.

Daniel Jones has improved. The O-Line is improved. The WR group is VASTLY improved. The defense is very good…if Blake Martinez hadn’t gotten hurt, it’s a top 10 type defense in the NFL. Injury has stripped away all Joe Judge’s top guys. They should not change Judge or O-C Garrett (hey, Jones is better as a QB now than prior…I don’t like Garrett myself, but he doesn’t deserve firing due to any negligence with the offense) nor should they fire GM Gettleman. They have a really nice core of talent, and it was coming together. They deserve to see this through. With this loss (and mass injury) their season is effectively over, but it should not be blamed on the coaching staff.

Dallas might have won anyway, but they got a gift here with all NYG’s bad luck. Dallas is going to win the NFC East by a mile if Dak stays healthy. Dallas is one cornerback, and a healthy return of Demarcus Lawrence away from being the best team in the NFC East. Mike McCarthy is up for Coach of the Year right now…and it might be just that his staff is very good, but McCarthy is the head guy, so he gets the rewards. Jerry Jones as Executive of the Year is on the table as well.

Now, if I know Jerry Jones…he’s going to inject himself into this and ruin it. The first thought I had on how he would do it – he’ll trade for Odell Beckham Jr., and give him a contract extension. Right now, Jones does not get my vote for Exec. of the Year, because where was he getting any of these ace CBs on the loose? Carolina keeps getting them all. Regardless, Dallas is a Super Bowl threat…1-2 things away…things they can trade for. Jerry has to make his move right here, right now. He needs to empty his chamber to trade for Xavien Howard.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Saquon Barkley’s (2-9-0) ankle sprain looked terrible, but apparently isn’t as bad as they thought…a low ankle sprain. They are saying that he’ll miss this week, but I suspect he’s out two weeks minimum. No need to rush him back…he has no need to rush back until he’s 100%.

When Barkley went down, Devontae Booker (16-42-1, 3-16-1/4) put up nice numbers…but really it was due to the TDs. 2.6 ypc…16 yards receiving, really? That’s exciting? He just happened to get the TDs.

Earlier in the year, when Barkley was out…Booker barely touched the ball as the lead back. It’s Booker’s show with the emergency need for NYG, but it may not be all that exciting. And if Daniel Jones is out, then it’s going to be even worse.

I thought Barkley would be out for 4+ weeks at first glance at that injury…and that made Booker an interesting/desperate waiver guy this week. Now, the Barkley injury may not be as bad…and the NYG situation at QB may be off too…this may not be as attractive as it seems. It’s something, it’s touches…but likely disappointing.

 -- Speaking of the NYG QB situation…

Daniel Jones’s (5-13 for 98 yards, 0 TDs/0 INTs, 3-9-0) concussion/playing status won’t be known until later in the week. It’s up in the air. Mike Glennon (16-25 for 196 yards, 1 TDs/2 INTs) is not the worst backup QB, but he’s pretty bad. NYG has nothing on the practice squad (Brian Lewerke), so Glennon it is if Jones is out…and all the offense suffers for it.

The Rams-DST gets this NYG team Week 6…no Barkley-Jones (maybe)-Golladay…or Toney (maybe). It could be an epic DST scoring event.

Glennon drags down all things at WR…maybe he hits a deep ball pop by surprise to John Ross (1-13-0/5) is about all the hope there is if Toney is out.

 -- Let’s finish out the NYG injury report with the NYG WRs…

Kenny Golladay (0-0-0/3) has looked terrific, to me, this season…but now he’s hurt again and out for at least a week. Side note: Trevon Diggs (5 tackles, 2 PDs) has become ‘that guy’…the shutdown guy to be feared by opposing WRs. He rattled Golladay here. Diggs has become more feared than James Bradberry (2 tackles, 1 PD).

With Golladay out and Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton potentially out again…NYG is left with John Ross, Collins Johnson, and hopefully Kadarius Toney (10-189-0/13).

Ahh, Kadarius Toney…

I would now say that he’s the best-looking WR from the 2021 NFL Draft class.

Pre-Draft, for CFM, I noticed the physical gifts…everyone noted the physical gifts. But I also laid out the case for his off-field risk/issues – lazy, underperforming most of his college career, and more into his music career than football…all that being a risk factor to ply his immature self with millions of dollars.

Then what happened this summer? Missing practices. Making coaches mad. Shooting his mouth off in the press. On cue.

What happened in this game – he was amazing…stunning…beautiful…and then the dark side reared its head – punched a player in the helmet. Dumb to throw a punch in a football game as it is, but dumber to throw a punch putting his moneymaking hand at risk by trying to punch a solid plastic object.

Toney is magnificently gifted and is also an immature, deranged person living in a make-believe world where he’s an old school gangster rapper.

You have no idea which side is going to win. In the end, I’m sure the ‘kills his career’ part will win out. However, it could be a sweet ride before the race car hits the wall…like an OBJ 2.0.

Enter at your own risk.

I would not try to buy in after his Week 5…the stove is too hot. Toney has an ankle injury…and a possible team sanctioned ‘suspended for a game or a half’, etc., to deal with….and Mike Glennon possibly to work with. Let Toney have a down Week 6, then look at dealing for him if you want in. If he has a nice Week 6…then his price is still high, and you didn’t really lose anything waiting…but his price may go down with 1-2 weaker games. I want in on something special like this, but I’m willing to wait.

Remember how awesome Rondale Moore was in his first two games? Now what’s his vibe? You don’t even know if you should redraft-roster him any longer. It happens that fast with rookies. Have patience.

As far as this game…a few notes:

*Stunning body control. Stunning ability to stop-start and change directions and accelerate. He’s like a bigger Tyreek Hill…but no one is Tyreek…

*The idiot O-C of KC can’t figure out how to get Tyreek Hill the ball, but Jason Garrett found every way possible to get Toney the ball in his first real start.

*Toney caught bubble screens, medium #1 WR timing routes, slants, and deep balls. He caught a medium route pass and ran right through defenders like they were standing still, getting tackled by his shoestrings to fall a yard short of a TD.

*Toney ran a wildcat play and fell a yard short of a rushing TD.

*Toney had a pass play called for him as well…a WR option pass.

*When Golladay went down, Toney started drawing Trevon Diggs some…and Diggs couldn’t really handle him.

*Brilliant play design by Garrett and Judge. It makes you pissed off at Reid-Bieniemy for constantly wasting Tyreek Hill, imprisoning him as a ‘deep ball guy’ when he could get 10+ catches per game around the line of scrimmage to then try and make plays after the catch. Instead, they did that with Mecole Hardman last week…and, surprise, they lost again and are in last place.

*Perhaps the most amazing thing about Toney’s game here…10 catches, 13 targets, 1 carry, 1 pass attempt…and he only played 54% of the snaps (37) in the game. Hats off to Judge-Garrett.

To that I say, Eric Bieniemy and Andy Reid…go piss off. You guys are morons with the way you use Tyreek Hill. Andy Reid…all your O-C’s turned HCs are utter garbage from your ‘tree’…Doug Pederson, Matt Nagy, and whenever the joke of Eric Bieniemy gets a gig. Oh, but you won a Super Bowl…thank Patrick Mahomes. You should be winning multiple ones with Mahomes…but now you’re in last place. Congrats.

Toney’s workday: https://youtu.be/QuD4z9FltWE

 -- Dalton Schultz (6-79-0/8) is the Dallas #1 WR…as a TE…he is the BFF of Dak, not Amari right now…and certainly not Lamb.

Season to date catches:

26 = Schultz

25 = Cooper

24 = Lamb

FF PPR PPG since Week 2 (Wks2-5):

15.4 = Schultz

12.3 = CeeDee

10.5 = Amari

07.8 = C Wilson

Amari’s last four games catch counts in each game: 3-3-3-3.

CeeDee Lamb catches in the last three games: 3-2-4

Schultz catches in his last three games: 6-6-6

Rec. TDs since Week 2 (Wks2-5):

3 = Schultz

2 = Ced Wilson

2 = Amari

1 = CeeDee

Schultz is the #5 FF PPG PPR TE for the season…just ahead of #6 Darren Waller, but Schultz is still seen as a randomly lucky TE who is a random TE1 that will fall at any time. People with Schultz are emailing me saying, “I need to improve my TEs…what should I do to trade for Waller or Kittle?”

Waller and Kittle are not upgrades from Schultz…get that into your brain.

 -- I hope you’re preparing to cash in on Bet The Close’s Chris Bilello’s Defensive Rookie of the Year preseason bet on Micah Parsons (8 tackles, 3 QB hits)…taking advantage of the favorable preseason odds on that prop bet.

Parsons has 9 QB hits the past 4 games as he transitioned to DE while Demarcus Lawrence is out. He’s playing terrific football and is on the high-profile team that is very likely to win their division and make a Super Bowl run – he has everything going for him to walk away with that DROY award with ease.

The Rams have Donald-Ramsey that the media likes to boast about. It might be Parsons-Diggs they blather about in the near future…that Dallas has two of the great young defenders in the game.

 -- Tony Pollard (14-75-0, 4-28-0/4) is getting a ton of touches for a backup. Pollard has more carries this season than…Chase Edmonds and Miles Sanders, among other ‘starters’.

Carries + catches, Pollard has one more than Javonte Williams this season.

And Pollard is only rising in touches. Since Week 2 (Wks2-5), Pollard has more carries than Conner-Fournette-Mk Davis, Moss, Jamaal Williams, M. Carter, Javonte, Latavius, D. Swift among others.

Snap Counts of Interest:

57 = Schultz

31 = Jarwin

47 = Elliott

31 = Pollard

50 = Engram

41 = Rudolph

41 = Ross

37 = Toney

30 = Collin Johnson

R.C. Fischer

FFM

12 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 5: Falcons 27, Jets 20

The Falcons were up 17-0 early 2nd-quarter…the beneficiaries of some fortuitous penalties and just raw Patterson and Pitts domination. It was 20-3 at the half, Atlanta…the Falcons looked OK, and the Jets couldn’t get out of their own way. But then the Jets mounted a comeback…cutting the lead to 20-17 mid-4th-quarter but the Falcons responded with a TD on the next series and withstood the Jets ‘hurry up’ flurry in the end for the victory.

Atlanta wasn’t overly impressive, but they were better, more sound series to series than the erratic Jets. Atlanta is that dumb Washington game  ending in Week 4 away from a three-game win streak (but they’re close to being 0-5 as well). I don’t know how they’ve nearly won 3 in a row…because the Falcons are awful. But they’ve gotten an easy schedule the last 3 weeks…and it continues ahead with Miami Week 6.

If the Falcons beat Miami Week 6, people will think they’re ‘fixed’, but they are not. They’re winning games because of Cordarrelle Patterson and taking advantage of an easy schedule. We project the Falcons to finish with 5-6 wins.  

The Jets…they aren’t learning or getting better. Zach Wilson is still taking too many risks, which is admirable at times but unnecessary at others. That’s a sign of the coaches not getting through to him. You’d think Wilson would be improving in this area, but he’s really not. He’s been better than his way-too-flamboyant 4 INT game vs. the Patriots, he’s starting to check down to RBs a bit more…but he still tries to gun it like Ricky Bobby’s dad in a racecar as soon as the Jets are down. Wilson is coachable, I believe, so the fact that they aren’t reeling him in is a concern – a concern that the staff isn’t managing the problem. I can’t believe Wilson just goes rogue. He’s not that kinda player.

The Jets have a solid+ defense and an erratic offense…one that the too young/too inexperienced brother of Saleh’s BFF is taking major heat for. And it’s probably part of the overall Jets-O problem. Wilson needs guidance/a slap but more so the young O-C as well needs help…not a good combination of needs, and no one to really help fix it right now.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- We should start with Kyle Pitts (9-119-1/10)…

I’m not sure if this was a breakout…not leading the concept/idea/thought one way or the other. I mean…I truly don’t know.

I’m not seeing ‘dominant’ with Pitts yet, but the potential problem is – he’s so smooth it doesn’t look like he’s trying but he’s just better than everyone with ease. Or is he still tentative or restricted? He’s not ‘obvious’ (to me) watching him…not like how much better Javonte Williams is than Najee Harris at a glance. Not like how different in movement/skills Kadarius Toney is than Ja’Marr Chase.

With that, what I see…

Pitts is not getting open like a dominant stud. He’s usually tightly covered and needs a great throw for him to go get. The good news is…Ryan is putting it near him more, and Pitts has a superhuman ability to just snatch passes in a crowd…so, Pitts just need targets -- and he can do the rest from there. But I wish he was just beating the pants off of coverage, but he is not. In college he did. His feet were amazing. I haven’t seen him open it up in the NFL much.

Additionally, I don’t see any innovative ways they are using Pitts, but this game, without Ridley, they forced Pitts targets…finally. Will they keep it up when Ridley returns? I do not know. At least this game established…Ryan can trust Pitts in real games. He hasn’t been that to Ryan prior.

The good news = Pitts showed us why we should be excited.

The maybe-bad news = We don’t know if this keeps up when Ridley is back.

Arthur Smith has shown me NOTHING as an offensive guru, so I am worried that this keeps up…and that Smith will ever get Pitts working in unique ways anytime soon.

 -- I don’t feel like the Falcons are working to or as desperate to use Pitts as they are Cordarrelle Patterson (14-54-0, 7-60-0/9)…and that’s why I’m encouraged but cautious on Pitts enthusiasm. However, I have had no such fears about CP…even as every single NFL and FF analyst stoked the fear of ‘low snap counts’ and ‘this can’t keep up’ last week – I chose to take the lesser travelled path of…’look at the upside when his snaps go up’. They had to go up, CP was playing too well not to see more work.

In this game…

CP played a season high 59% of the snaps here. Mike Davis (64%)

CP took a season high 14 carries.

CP saw a season high 9 targets.

CP threw a season high one pass (incomplete).

This week will be full of ‘but that’s because Ridley was out’. I’m not listening to THEM on Patterson. Why should I? They’ve been wrong or ignorant of it all along.

Patterson is the current #2 RB in PPR PPG…just behind Derrick Henry.

Patterson is the current #3 WR in PPR PPG…just behind Tyreek Hill and Cooper Kupp.

If it all ended today…we couldn’t complain with what we got so far, but I think: https://youtu.be/lkjXcRLNZHQ?t=15

 -- Some detailed football analysis from a pro at this: All the Jets WRs suck.

Corey Davis (4-45-0/7) is as bad a #1 WR as there is in the league.

Jamison Crowder (4-24-0/6) stuck in mud for speed.

Keelan Cole (2-38-00/3) and Denzel Mims (2-33-0/3) are their best options, but neither hardly play/see targets enough.

I want nothing to do with this offense except using Michael Carter (10-38-1, 3-20-0/3) in a pinch if I need bye week help or an emergency start for injury.

Wilson is barely throwing TD passes as it is…so, not much juice for these WRs anyway.

 -- Not for nothing, I know Kyle Pitts is the man and all…but have you noticed Hayden Hurst (4-40-1/5) has been involved a little bit? 4 catches in each of his last two games. Three 4 catch games so far this season playing about 50% of the snaps.

 -- I’ve been slamming Matt Ryan (33-45 for 342 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) all season for looking terrible, which he does to me…he’s a bottom 10 QB to my eye…but he’s caught some fire with the easier schedule = 8 TDs/0 INT and 275+ pass yards per game the last 3 weeks. Cord Patterson is really helping Ryan’s numbers.

The good times for Ryan should be ending ahead: MIA-CAR-NO the next 3 weeks.

 -- I’m still a believer in Zach Wilson (19-32 for 192 yards, 0 TDs/1 INT) but only for Dynasty…only as a #3-4 QB investment. He has almost no value now in the real world. He’s not getting any better in 2021 with this O-Line and these WRs. He may get a bit better but as for using him for FF for any reason…it’s gonna be awhile.

 -- The Jets defense got thumped early, but then bowed up and kept the Jets in the game…like they do every week. It’s an emerging, tough group…but not elite…and no offensive support.

Except in an obvious situation…you can’t trust them. Weeks 11-16 is interesting, however: MIA-HOU-PHI-NO-MIA-JAX.

Snap Counts of Interest:

50 = Mk Davis

46 = CPatt

03 = Gallman

54 = Pitts

43 = Hurst

34 = Lee Smith

29 = Carter

22 = Ty J

05 = Tevin C

45 = Corey Davis

34 = Crowder

31 = Keelan Cole

08 = Mims

06 = Berrios

R.C. Fischer

Total Football Advisor

11 October 2021

Looking at three Fantasy notes from each game this Sunday and our five players' advisory list for upcoming waivers, trading, and deep sleepers...

Ross Jacobs

FFM

11 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 5: Rams 26, Seahawks 17

These two teams scuffed around in the first half, both running the ball into stacked boxes a lot, multiple stupid calls on 3rd or 4th and short. It was a real snooze fest and the Seahawks led 7-3 at halftime.

In the second half the Rams decided to wake up and scored twice to take a commanding 16-7 lead.

Then Russell Wilson got hurt, the Seahawks were pinned on their own 1 yard line, and it looked like the game was over.

And then the craziest thing I've seen all year happened. Geno Smith somehow drove the Seahawks 99 yards for a TD after Wilson was hardly able to move the ball all day. Seattle had been running their typical boring straight ahead runs all day, but suddenly decided to spread it out with Geno and let him sling it...and it worked!

Seattle was down by 2 but the game was back within reach. Unfortunately the comeback wouldn't last as the Rams scored again to go up by 9. Geno fell apart after his miracle first drive and the Rams walked away with a solid victory.

Would things have ended differently with Wilson in the game instead of Geno? Perhaps. You can never count out the magic of Russell Wilson. But I tend to think it wouldn't have mattered. LA was the better team and had Seattle in a very disadvantageous position.

It's hard to say just how good the Rams might be right now. They are obviously talented, but it feels like something is missing to me. They have a pretty good offense and a pretty good defense. Everything looks solid on paper. They'll be in the playoffs but probably as a Wildcard because Arizona just looks better right now. I still want to see them take control a little bit more instead of letting teams hang with them for so long. It might just be my current anti-Stafford/McVay bias talking however. They are a good team. No use nitpicking them too much.

I think it's safe to say the Seahawks are done for the year. They were their usual ok selves. Russell could have carried them to 10 or 11 wins, but with him gone for a month or two it's over. The defense is just not good, and Geno isn't taking this offense anywhere but down. They might not make it to 6 wins now.

Fantasy Notes

--This is why RC is always telling everyone to have a strong 2nd QB. Real teams and fantasy teams alike still don't get the point. The QB is the most important position on the field. Even in fantasy a good one can help carry your team through down weeks from your skill position players. I've already gotten at least a couple wins this year because Mahomes nearly outscored my opponent by himself. You need a good one, and you need a good backup in case disaster strikes.

If Christian McCaffrey gets hurt, I can plug in Chuba Hubbard and still get some ok production out of him. If Russell Wilson goes down, I cannot put my hopes and dreams on Geno Smith. It's much easier to find usable RB or WR help if your top guys get hurt, but TE's and QB's are nearly impossible to adequately replace.

--With the loss of Wilson, Tyler Lockett (5-57-0/10) and DK Metcalf (5-98-2/5) are shot. You can't trade them and you're basically forced to start them regardless. Of the two I think Lockett is in more trouble. DK was already becoming the top guy, and he's the bigger body, safer throw for Geno to look for. The connection isn't going to be great, the volume is still going to be low, and now the scores will be fewer, but Metcalf might be able to hang on as a WR1.5. Lockett is a WR2 at best, probably not even that good.

--Alex Collins (15-47-0, 2-25-0/3) did get the start for Chris Carson this week, but it wasn't as good as I had hoped. The Rams aren't usually that good against the run, but for some reason Seattle was just slamming Collins into a brick wall all night. If Carson is out another week it's going to be a rough start again for Collins against the Steelers. It's safe touches if you absolutely need a spot RB start, but don't count on getting much from him. He'll need a TD to have a decent day.

--It's just a minor note, but the Seahawks had Colby Parkinson on the field quite a bit the 2nd half of this game. They didn't use him a whole lot but it was interesting because he was lined up out wide and not as a traditional TE. He was moving around pretty good, quite well actually considering how big he is (seriously, go find a picture of him standing next to Metcalf). I don't think he's anywhere close to being fantasy relevant, but perhaps we're seeing the first clues that Seattle knows they have something with him. He's a favorite of RC's and after this first look I definitely want to keep an eye on him over the next year or two. He's a nice super deep stash in the larger dynasty leagues.

--All week we heard Robert Woods (12-150-0/14) was whining about targets, and wouldn't you know it, he gets 14 here and everything is back to normal. I advised previously to be patient with him, that he wasn't being locked out of the game by Stafford even though it's clear that Kupp is the primary look. All this means is that while Kupp is a top 5 WR this year, Woods is still going to be close to the top 12 or so by the time we're done. Unfortunately the buy low window on him just slammed shut.

--Don't worry about the “split” touches between Darrell Henderson (17-82-1, 1-17-0/1) and Sony Michel (11-37-1, 1-8-0/1). Henderson left the game at one point for an injury checkup and Michel replaced him. If that hadn't happened Henderson would have dominated the touches here. Contrary to all past evidence, McVay seems to be 100% in with Henderson and you should consider him a RB1 the rest of the way. It might still be possible to wrestle him away from a nervous owner, but people are starting to figure this out quickly and it's getting harder and harder to acquire him by the week.

--RC and I have both written an awful lot about Matt Stafford vs Jared Goff etc, and after five weeks of watching both guys I'm ready to say...we were absolutely 100% correct about this. Stafford is a good QB no doubt, and Detroit certainly wasn't doing him any favors, but he's not elite and he was definitely not worth giving up multiple 1st round picks and Goff to acquire (unless of course the Rams win the Superbowl, which they could absolutely do, because that justifies all things).

Stafford is going to pile up numbers this year because he has a good team around him, they play a relatively easy schedule, and McVay wants to prove a point by having Stafford air it out. It's a perfect scenario and all those reasons are why I drafted Kupp on every team this year. I wanted a piece of this offense without having to rely on Stafford due to his cost to acquire.

Now I think Stafford is going to finish the year as a top 5 QB in fantasy, but just watching him in games...I'm not that impressed. He's good but Goff can do everything Stafford can do and has in the past. If the Rams win the Superbowl this year then perhaps it was a good trade for everyone. That's possible. Not everything has to have a winner and a loser.

IDP Notes

--Jordyn Brooks (11 tackles) is still lighting it up. Like I said weeks ago, he is the new, better KJ Wright. He's averaging 9 tackles a game. On this point, if you're in an IDP league, why are you worrying about not having Darius Leonard or Devin White? Every game it seems like I can point out another LB tearing it up with tackle counts. There's just not a huge difference between any of them. Don't fret your linebackers, trust me. There's usable guys all over the place.

--My guy Quandre Diggs (5 tackles, 1 INT) came up big again with an interception on a pass Stafford was trying to throw away. He's playing some really good football right now.

Snap Counts of Interest

44 = Darrell Henderson

23 = Sony Michel

57 = Will Dissly

35 = Colby Parkinson

46 = Alex Collins

14 = DeeJay Dallas

Ross Jacobs

FFM

09 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 4: Bills 40, Texans 0 

I mean, what do you want me to say here? A great team played a bad team and beat the pants off of them. I have nothing particularly clever or insightful to add about this one. I will say I thought Houston fought extremely hard given the circumstances. They could have easily rolled over and died, but they kept coming after Buffalo.

Houston just isn't talented enough to compete right now, but I've been quite impressed with their performance these first 4 games considering the state of the franchise over the last year or two. We'll see how long that energy stays high when the losses start to mount though.

Just another ho hum beatdown by the Bills. They aren't the most talented team top to bottom, but they are so disciplined and well coached. It's no secret that they'll be in the mix for the top seed in the AFC and a Superbowl favorite. They have a really nice schedule the rest of the way, but a win over the Chiefs this week would be massive for their chances at the top seed and a huge blow to the Chiefs who are falling behind in the AFC West race.

Fantasy Notes

--It's been a slow-ish start for Josh Allen (20-30 for 248 yards, 2 TD/1 INT, 6-41-0) in the fantasy department because they've mostly been crushing teams every week and thus running out the block late in the game, but I have no concerns about him and would even advise people to look at him as a buy-low candidate. He just missed out on a couple of rushing TD's to pad his stats here. They will come. The schedule is a dream, and I expect Allen to finish as a top 3-5 QB by year's end.

--The only knock I have on the way this Buffalo team is run is their baffling RB usage. You cannot watch Devin Singletary (14-79-0, 1-7-0/1) and Zach Moss (14-61-1) on the same field and tell me that Moss is better than Singletary. It's no contest. Singletary looks fantastic, quick and fast, while Moss looks like his typical James Conner-esque self. He's powerful but that's literally it. He needs perfect blocking or else he's falling down for 1-2 yards. This should be a backfield dominated by Singletary, but McDermott thinks otherwise, and so for fantasy we are stuck with a frustrating split, and one where the lesser talented player is getting all the TD's. I don't like it, but Moss is the guy to own out of the two because he gets the goalline opportunities. I wouldn't want either ideally though.

--Another week, another somewhat quiet event for Stefon Diggs (7-114-0/11). Yes, he got 100 yards, but the TD's haven't come yet and thus he's flying a little under the radar. He's still difficult to trade for after last year's breakout, but you could possibly pry him away with the right deal. He's still a WR1 all day.

--I've seen some enthusiasm for Dawson Knox (5-37-2/8) this week because people are dying at TE, and I can't argue against it. His snaps and usage rate have really jumped in recent weeks, and Josh Allen is looking for him often around the endzone because he's a big, reliable target. Looks like another year of lower catches and yards for Knox but will be fantasy useful because he catches 10 TDs.

--Davis Mills (11-21 for 87 yards, 0 TD/4 INT) took an absolute beating here...but he didn't look as bad as I was expecting. A large part of this is just that the Bills are far more talented as a team than this pathetic Houston roster and Mills was just in way over his head. But after watching it back I was impressed with how Mills handled the pressure. He was hanging in the pocket while taking a pounding and was trying to make a play, but the Bills were just suffocating on defense. It should also be noted that at least 2 of his INT's were not his fault. One ricocheted off a receiver's hands to a defender and another was batted into the air at the line and again went straight to a defender.

Overall, Mills still isn't that talented a QB, but he's not as bad as he looked here. He's got a level of poise and enough arm talent to make it as a backup, but he belongs on the bench and not starting, certainly against one of the league's best defenses.

--The only other player you could even think of using from Houston is Brandin Cooks (5-47-0/7), but he really needs Tyrod Taylor back. I would lump him in, maybe a step or so behind, Michael Pittman and Kenny Golladay as WR1.5-2's hiding in plain sight. You could probably get him much cheaper than what he's worth if you need WR help.

IDP Notes

--Has RC mentioned how good Desmond King (9 tackles, 1 tfl) is? Because he's pretty good.

‍

Snap Counts of Interest

58 = Dawson Knox

53 = Stefon Diggs

51 = Emmanuel Sanders

36 = Cole Beasley

40 = Zach Moss

32 = Devin Singletary

R.C. Fischer

FFM

08 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 4: Jets 27, Titans 24

In this tape study, I was hoping to see a nice step forward by the Jets…their first win, a come from behind gutty win. I like the energy of this Jets team…kudos to Robert Saleh. I want them to move forward.

Is that what I saw on tape? No. Not really.

It’s the same tape every week with the 2021 Jets…the only difference here was they won. They won because Zach Wilson hit a few big play bombs at the right time, and these weak Jets receivers actually caught the passes this time. It’s the same Wilson tape – Brett Favre at his worst (and sometimes best)…erratic, gambling, trying to make plays that are low probability QB play mixed with a really nice-looking defense. I said in my Robert Saleh new hire study – the 1st-time D-C hired, (former NFL player) Jeff Ulbrich, was the better man for the job. He’ll get a job next year with this stunning turnaround of the Jets defense.

The Jets are like playing a slot machine on offense…you’re going to lose overall, but occasionally you’ll pull the handle and win one and it’s sweet. The defense does their best to hold off the opposing offense getting constant drives with good field position (because the Jets O can’t sustain drives and has turnovers) – and they did that here again, shutting down the first three Titans’ drives to field goals and a 9-0 lead…that very easily could’ve been 17 or 21 to nothing right out of the gates. Had the Titans had their starting WRs, it might have been.

I will say, it’s fun to see this Jets team playing with passion – the defense is going 100mph and at all times, while the offense is not just throwing screens all day…Zach Wilson is trying to win the Super Bowl with every throw…to his detriment but you might as well lose in a blaze of glory, not padding your Comp. Pct. stats.

The Titans lost and fell to (2-2), but they’ll be fine. They were injured going into this and unlucky not to have won it easily anyway. The Titans could’ve really put some distance in the AFC South with a win, but they now let the Colts (1-3) have some life. Tennessee should still win the AFC South with 9-10 wins…and everyone else under .500.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- The first thing to talk about here is -- that Jets defense. The media and FF analysts are now starting to wake up. We’ve been pointing out the change in the Jets D since Week 1 and projecting them as a matchup to worry about for your opposing WRs and TEs the past two weeks.

The Jets defense has allowed just 2 passing TDs…the lowest in the league.

They are # 5 in sacks so far this season.

They are #2/best in 3rd-down conversions allowed (28.6%).

They are #4 in red zone TDs allowed per trip…a whisker away from #1/best.

Their offense is giving them no help in support…the Jets D is carrying this team. Keeping them in games.

Week 5 they face a weak Atlanta offense missing its #1 WR. Should be a decent FF opportunity for this DST.

Side note: The one flaw to attack on this aggressive Jets defense is the offense using their aggression against them in the form of screen passes/easy throws to the RBs. The Jets have allowed the 2nd-most targets and catches per game to RBs, and the most receiving yards per game to opposing RB groups.

Thus…Jeremy McNichols (8-74-0/12) had a big day as a receiver here.

Thus…our lofty projections on Cordarrelle Patterson all week for Week 5.

 -- Jamison Crowder (7-61-1/9) made his 2021 debut here, and it didn’t look great but it was OK. Crowder is a very average WR getting pushed on the Jets for reasons I do not fully understand…one of them is because of how pathetic the Jets WR group has been the last two years.

I guess this is going to work OK going forward because Corey Davis is a terrible #1 WR and Denzel Mims is buried in deep space somewhere not hardly seeing the field, plus they have the worst TE depth chart in football. Wilson has to throw to somebody.

 -- The best-looking WR in this game, hands down, was Josh Reynolds (6-59-0/9) …not even close…in a mild shock to me because I thought he was being buried by the Titans coaching staff – for a lingering injury, then some nonsense about him not playing special teams well (which he shouldn’t even be working special teams). He had to play here due to all the WR injuries and he was CLEARLY the best WR on the field between these two teams. I knew he was good, but that’s the best I’ve seen him look.

He’ll likely go back to being buried as A.J. and Julio return, but if Julio doesn’t return…maybe Reynolds can make a statement. He had a very good game here.

 -- Zach Wilson (21-34 for 297 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT) is making baby step progress every week. He took more checkdowns in this game and landed some of his deep ball shots, but he is still taking to many unnecessary chances downfield…it’s both admirable (he’s going for the jugular not throwing right into triple coverage like they aren’t there) and maddening (because it’s such low probability stuff). He’s such a talent. I wonder if this would have been what Pat Mahomes would’ve been like if thrown into the fire right away as a rookie with crap WRs and no offensive coaching experience anywhere near him?

His one INT was a throw to Corey Davis, who slipped on his break/route and left the ball clean through to the trailing DB. Not Wilson’s fault.

On the other side of the field, watching Ryan Tannehill (30-49 for 298 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) play – he is so good. He’s really developed into one of the best QBs in the NFL. He’s a pleasure to watch now. I’ve learned to appreciate him, not question him.

And in the battle of ‘was it Brady or Belichick?’ = the answer was ‘Brady’ all along.

In the battle of ‘was it Tanny vs. silver-spoon O-C Arthur Smith?’ = the answer was CLEARLY Tannehill. Arthur Smith is a flaming bust head coach who got lucky to be with Tannehill and Derrick Henry.

 -- John Franklin-Myers (4 tackles, 1 sack, 2 TFLs, 3 QB hits) had himself a game, and then got a contract extension this week.

Franklin-Myers is averaging 3.8 tackles, 0.67 sacks per game this season to date.

He looks good to me, but I’m never like ‘Wow, what a beast’. He’s good.

Snap Counts of Interest:

50 = Corey Davis

38 = Crowder

36 = K Cole

10 = Mims

09 = Berrios

31 = M Carter

20 = Ty J

11 = T Coleman

81 = Westbrook-Ikhine

78 = J Reynolds

66 = Ch Rogers

25 = Batson