- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 5: Game Analysis: Dolphins 43, 49ers 17
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
This game is being so overlooked, so misinterpreted by the media and us fans. This is a classic case of all of us seeing what we have been conditioned to see.
-We think the 49ers are a top team in general…so, we’re going to overlook all their devastating defensive injuries and keep on thinking they’re good – reinforced because they smoked the Jets and Giants in back-to-back weeks.
-We think the Dolphins are a bad team because…remember early last year?.
-We think Jimmy Garoppolo must be hurt because – how could this happen against lowly Miami if it weren’t true? He was benched because of his injury not fully healed.
The real story is…
1) The 49ers are going to be lucky to be .500 this season because of all their injuries.
2) Miami is better across the board then the 49ers because of their offseason moves and SF’s mass injuries.
You ready for this? I don’t think you are…
Since Week 9 of last regular season (last 9 games in 2019) + the 2020 season so far, the records for these two teams:
(8-5) = SF
(7-6) = MIA
If the Vegas lines are right about Week 6…that will be both (8-6) in this comparison after Week 6.
3) Miami has an emerging, excellent defense.
4) The 49ers’ downfall is their own doing on top of the injuries because Robert Selah is one of the worst, if not the worst D-C in the NFL. But the media likes his look, so the 49ers are afraid to change.
5) Jimmy G. was benched to send him a pre-warning. This wasn’t because of an injury…it was because he’s not that great and more pressing is the Miami defense is really good and gets no credit for the sheer dominance here.
The 49ers are playing for their season this week at LAR. If they lose, this season is essentially ‘over’ for them. From Weeks 7-13: @NE, @SEA, GB, @NO, BYE, @LAR, BUF. Six games they will be an underdog in. If they lose this week to LAR and drop to (2-4) they will probably lose five of their next 6 after that and be done. We could be looking at a 5-6 win 49ers team if they lose to LAR this week. 7-8 wins if they beat LAR this week. Never discount Kyle Shanahan but he can only do so much with a dying team.
I could see Kyle making a deal for Matt Ryan to try to save the season, but he might be better to just pack it in and write this year off to injury and rebuild in 2021.
Miami is now (2-3). When they beat NYJ this week they will be (3-3) heading into a BYE. I would project them to finish with 8-9 wins as it stands right now. If they stay healthy and fix their RB situation – this becomes a dangerous team you don’t want to play, especially at home…and three of their next 6 games are at home.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The resurgence of Miami is going to come from their defense. From my ‘Upside DST of the Week’ notes for Week 6:
Obviously, 'anything against the Jets' -- that's the only reason you need. But I want you to consider how good the Miami defense might be...
They're currently #10 in the league in PPR allowed to opponents...not bad.
But look at the splits based on Byron Jones:
25.0 PPG allowed = in 3 games Byron Jones was out
21.0 PPR allowed = in 2 games with Byron Jones playing/active
Check this out...
333.3 net passing yards allowed = in 3 games Byron Jones was out
134.0 net passing yards allowed = in 2 games with Byron Jones playing/active
It's a good defense for Week 6, for sure...but it may have legs beyond that.
The Dolphins defense might be a top 5-10 defense, as a unit, in the NFL ahead…IF they have Xavien Howard and Byron Jones healthy.
It’s just not the ace CBs either…it’s a solid, deep rotational D-Line. They have solid enough linebackers. They are #7 in the league on 3rd-downs as a defense (38% convert against). They are #9 in QB hits. This unit is good and was showing signs in the 2nd-half of last year starting, and added a bunch of smart free agents in the offseason…it’s coming together.
-- Thus, the Jimmy Garoppolo (7-17 for 77 yards, 0 TD/2 INTs) was not an injury issue. It was Jimmy G. is not great + rusty/not 100% + Miami’s defense.
If Jimmy G, is bad in a loss to the Rams this week…a change to C.J. Beathard may have to happen. The 49ers can easily walk away from Jimmy G. in 2021, contractually. The end of Jimmy G. might be a week away and the 49ers essentially start to tank the season instead of swimming upstream with all kinds of injuries crushing them.
-- Because the 49ers are down to 3rd-string corners, Preston Williams (4-106-1/5) saw nice targeting. Every time CB Brian Allen was on a WR, that’s where Fitz went usually. Preston was that winner a few times.
Note…Fitz took two 25+ yard shot deep balls to PW for TDs and one was a D-P.I. no play and the other was not open. Just know Fitz was trying…he was swashbuckling with Preston. Good to see.
You think Fitz will try again this week with PW vs. NYJ?
Yep.
-- Myles Gaskin (16-57-1, 5-34-0/5) avoided the Le’Veon Bell takeover…but it goes to show what I’ve been hinting at – Gaskin is a target very able to be taken out. Could be by a Todd Gurley or David Johnson or whomever in an acquisition, or it could be by Matt Breida (9-28-0, 1-31-0/1).
‘Takeout’ probably means a split of some kind in the near future. Like a 50-50 or hot hand game where Breida just stays in longer and longer. There was no sign of that here. Breida got a few good opportunities but he didn’t really cash in on any of them.
Gaskin is clearly Brian Flores’s guy…until he isn’t, but right now it’s clearly Gaskin and he isn’t really helping them but Breida isn’t doing anything obvious either.
On the Miami roster, today, Breida is the one inline if something happens to Gaskin.
-- No debate in San Francisco at RB. Raheem Mostert (11-90-0, 3-29-0/3) has runaway with it. If not for a blowout occurring, Mostert (in a tight game) would’ve seen 20+ carries easy.
Jerick McKinnon (1-0-0, 2-3-0/4)…thank you for your service…buh-bye. He’s like a non-entity anymore. A mild pass game relief back. When Tevin Coleman returns in a few weeks (if) then it’s a Mostert dominant lead with Tevin playing 25-30% of the snaps/touches.
This is your last week to buy Mostert reasonably before he has a huge touch count and could go skyrocketing in value.
-- Deebo Samuel (2-19-0/8) was a victim of three things…
1) CB Xavien Howard and the Miami defense. 80% of the issue.
2) The problem with Jimmy Garoppolo and/or C.J. Beathard, which was more the Miami defense. 10% of the issue.
3) Deebo was sick all week and away from the team for most of the week. Might have been a factor a tiny bit. 10% of the issue.
The issue #1 above, it’s a problem again Weeks 6-7…
Week 6 v. Jalen Ramsey
Week 7 v. Stephon Gillmore
-- Two IDP’s to point out…
1) MIA LB Andrew Van Ginkel (6 tackles, 1.0 sacks, 1.5 TFL)…he has 2.5 sacks in his last three games played. A hard working, 240+ pound LB who ran a 6.89 three-cone at his NFL Combine 2019 (which is very high end for his size). He played 70% of the snaps this week, double what he’s done in prior weeks. It looks like he’s emerging a bit as a pass rusher.
2) SF DT Kerry Hyder (2 tackles, 1.0 sacks, 1.5 TFLs, 3 QB hits), is a DT we keep pointing out every week because he always catches my attention. 3.5 sacks this season a among the NFL leaders with 10 QB hits.
-- As I’ve been saying for weeks…this SF-DST is dying a fast death, and it took a fatal head wound here. I’m really surprised D-C Robert Saleh didn’t get fired this week, honestly/no joke. Since their hot schedule-based (easy) start last season, this defense has been torched regularly…except beating up Daniel Jones and Sam Darnold a few weeks ago.
Against non-NY teams this season they’ve given up 24-25-43 points in games.
From Week 9 on last season the gave up: 25-27-26-8-20-46-29-31-21 in regular season games to the end of the year (over 27 PPG allowed their last 12 regular season games).
They have no defensive backfield to speak of. They lost Nick Bosa. They can’t keep all 3 linebackers healthy for more than a few weeks at a time. They are dying, but people are still holding like is the 1st-half of 2019. There is nothing here. The schedule gets much worse (their next 7 games are with likely 2020 playoff teams/good-to-great offenses). They are undermanned. They need to rebuild this completely in 2021.
Because some people are holding onto the past, you can probably add them as a sweetener in a deal this week to open up a space (if you have).
Snap Counts of Interest:
31 = Mostert
16 = McKinnon
15 = J Wilson
62 = Aiyuk
57 = Deebo
42 = Gaskin
21 = Breida
10 = Laird
10 = Bowden
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 5: Game Analysis: Texans 30, Jaguars 14
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
Here’s what we really need to understand about this game, in three parts…
1) Jacksonville entered missing it’s top/elite pass rusher (Allen), it’s top ranked (by PFF) linebacker (Jack), and its shutdown corner (Henderson). The heart and soul of defense…gone…and it just happened this week/game. Plus, they lost their top slot corner (Hayden) coming in (on I.R. now) and were down to a backup safety starting…who they then lost in-game, going to their 3rd/4th-string rookie.
A so-so/erratic/young defense lost 4-5 of its best players for this one game (and maybe more ahead).
2) In this game, right before the half, under a minute left…the Jags missed a 24-yard FG which would have tied things at 10-10. Houston took over and tried to race downfield for a score before-half FG, but Watson threw a horrible pass and was picked. The Jags were set up for another FG to tie it before half…missed again.
In the 3rd-quarter, the Jags were driving for a TD to take the lead late in the quarter…they refused to kick a short FG (because of the prior issues) and went to do a trick RB-pass play and the RB fumbled and the deep drive ended with no points. Houston won the game from there.
3) The Jags were devastated on defense, and still Deshaun Watson struggled, threw two picks (and many other poor passes) for about 3.5 quarters. Watson put two TDs on demoralized JAX late and it looked like a big win/nice Watson stats. It wasn’t as good as it looked. Houston should be embarrassed by this game performance considering the backdrop.
Houston finally gets a win, but it was ugly. This team, this offense, this defense…ugly. Their season comes down to Week 6 at TEN. A win there actually keeps the dream alive. A loss there puts a bullet in their 2020 and they might as well dump everything to prep for 2021.
You could see Will Fuller and David Johnson get traded, among others if they lose Week 6.
Jacksonville lost, but, as always, tries hard. They were the better team for the most part, just undermanned and hurt by their 4th kicker (due to a rash of injuries) for the young season. The Jags have so many key injuries right now, I’m not sure when they’ll be healthy or win a game next.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- D.J. Chark (3-16-0/4) had a down game (off his 2-TD day the week prior). Couple notes on it…
1) It was as feared/as predicted, they tried to avoid the WR covered by Bradley Roby.
2) Chark left the game late with an ankle injury, but it’s supposedly not that bad and they had no reason to push him back in because the game was functionally over. I think he might play in Week 6, if you see him practicing ‘limited’ FRI.
3) Minshew took two shots at Chark in the end zone from short range in this game…missed him on one (ruled a throw away/non-target but it wasn’t), didn’t have him open on the other but almost.
Minshew is just throwing to whatever is open, not forcing things because he’s having to throw a ton. Roby provided good coverage on Chark + there were some double teams on him. The rest of the field was bountiful for Minshew so Chark had a weak day.
Risk of this happening again Week 7 at LAC, Week 10 at GB, and trouble Weeks 15-16 (BAL-CHI). Otherwise, Chark is the team’s best WR…but Minshew is not slavishly working him when it doesn’t make sense, but it’s his best look when he sees the right coverage.
-- Laviska Shenault (7-79-0/8) becomes the easy look when a top corner is working Chark, so Minshew took it. Shenault is a solid WR3 every week with a pinch of upside.
Keelan Cole (2-25-1/6) always looks great on the field but usually has just 1-2 catches for 3.5 quarters and then gets a bunch of junk late 4th-quarter when way down, and gets an extra catch or two. Then in their late hurry up, down two scores with less than a minute to go, we saw three throws to Cole in desperation, all incomplete. Cole is a WR3-4, who has WR2 talent, but WR4 targeting but WR2 TDs thus season so far.
-- Gardner Minshew (31-49 for 301 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT, 4-18-0) is working as a solid QB2…QB1 hope in good matchups.
Minshew is 11th in the NFL in passing yards per game and 7th in passing TDs.
Note…just ahead of him in those categories is Derek Carr, for the season.
…and Teddy Bridgewater is coming on strong and ahead of him in passing yards per game but behind him in TDs.
-- Deshaun Watson (25-35 for 339 yards, 3 TDs/2 INTs) is just ahead of Minshew in passer yards per game, but it’s looked terrible/been a lot of garbage that I see.
TO my eye, Watson is playing terrible football. It can work for FF because of garbage (like 330+ yards here against a stripped defense)…but Minshew-Carr-Teddy all look better on-field/on tape and have similar/better numbers.
-- David Johnson (17-96-0, 2-7-0/4) had a few 10+ yard plays in this game. There were some openings to run through late, as the defense was worn down – and they were worn down, in part, by DJ’s physical running all game.
Many of us own DJ and want to trade him off/banish him/punish him for not dancing for us on command. We do that a lot in FF…something has a few bad result weeks, and we urgently want to sell it for some other pipe dream. You are in pain over DJ, I get it. But I could rattle off a long list of other RBs with big names who are failing in fantasy but getting good touches/snaps.
Joe Mixon, CEH, Drake, Gaskin, J. Kelley, A. Gibson, Le’Veon, D Montgomery…to name a few. Josh Jacobs and Miles Sanders are really struggling, but it’s glossed over by several short TDs to pump FF numbers. DJ is not getting to the goal line often to juice his numbers with the easy TDs so far.
It’s also been mentioned by me, now chronicled by others in the media – Watson has misfired passes to a wide-open David Johnson in the end zone/easy TDs on three different occasions this season.
DJ is 26th in PPR PPG among RBs with 3 or more games played and are not on I.R. currently. If Watson completed just two of those easy TD passes, DJ would be sitting #17 among RBs in PPG…about one more TD away from the top 12.
Do you really have a David Johnson problem? Is he ‘bad’. I don’t see it. Just unlucky so far…not his fault. I’m a ‘buy low’ still.
-- James Robinson (13-48-0, 5-22-0/7) is starting to see his numbers sag as we go. He’s another guy owners are getting fussy about – no TDs, now you’re mad at him. Guys like JRob and DJ – they ARE their team’s main guy and eventually TDs will fall their way, by random luck of the universe course correcting opportunities. You have to believe it…even if it doesn’t happen. They are getting touches that warrant more FF scoring.
JRob has the 11th most carries by an RB this season. David Johnson 13th.
-- Brandin Cooks (8-161-1/12) had a big game, but the Jags were running two backup/backup-to-the-backup level CBs, so the opportunity to pick on them with Cooks was there (because the one good, remaining, Jags CB was on Will Fuller). No sudden return to greatness here.
-- With the need for so much passing by JAX, Chris Thompson (3-35-0/3) has caught 3 or more passes in three of his last 4 games…with a high of 5 catches Week 3. Not saying anything special is happening here, but he is playing like 40% of the offensive snaps now. He’s a lesser J.D. McKissic.
-- HOU LB Tyrell Adams (12 tackles, 1 TFL) took over when Benardrick McKinney went down and out. He is the assumed starter for him now. Solid enough grinder…not necessarily a future star, but gets a shot at playing time/IDP opps now.
-- JAX rookie SAF Daniel Thomas (7 tackles) was forced into action with the in-game injuries. I’m a fan of Thomas. He could work if starting/while Andrew Wingard is out…but it’s risky because Jarrod Wilson (4 tackles, 1 INT) is back now too…and he’ll be the more experienced SAF.
Snap Counts of Interest:
45 = Dav Johnson
17 = Duke Johnson
60 = Cole
52 = Shenault
50 = Chark
24 = Conley
23 = Collin Johnson (caught a TD pass…is an end zone weapon at 6’6”, but still inexperienced otherwise in routes, etc., with Minshew)
42 = J Robinson
30 = CH Thompson
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 5: Game Analysis: Ravens 27, Bengals 3
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
If any score of any game in 2020 represented truly what everyone thought going in...and then exactly what happened in reality…it was this one. What you expected to happen, happened. Joe Burrow struggled against the Ravens defense and he got hit a lot and the Ravens just toyed around and jumped ahead early and just moseyed onto victory. Nothing fresh to learn here about either team.
We won’t know how good the Ravens are until they hit Weeks 7-12: PIT, @IND, @NE, TEN, @PIT.
The Bengals next hope for wins comes Weeks 11-14 when they face three NFL East teams in a 4 game stretch…a stretch where we can answer the question – what team is worse…the Bengals or every team in the NFC East?
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Lamar Jackson (19-37 for 180 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT, 2-3-0) is killing people in FF. Last week, he missed some practices sick and has a knee injury that he’s able to play on but in a game against a helpless foe there’s no need for him to go all out so you get him playing, dialed back, and killing your FF numbers.
I think there’s a risk of it happening Week 6 vs. PHI too. In 6pts per pass TD with bonus scoring, etc., ‘favorable for passing’ league scoring – the question of whether like a Gardner Minshew is in a better spot this week is firmly on the table. You have to believe Lamar is saving himself for the difficult weeks ahead starting Week 7. It’s a concern LJax owners don’t need in their lives right now. I’m just thinking out loud…no one truly knows.
-- Joe Burrow (19-30 for 183 yards, 0 TD/1 INT) has the opposite issue…he knows going into every game he is going to get killed. He’s the #1 most sacked/hit QB in the NFL.
Another reason why Herbert is better than Burrow…Herbert is handling the lack of O-Line a thousand times better than Burrow is. And that’s not a slam at Burrow, I expect this Burrow choppiness…what Herbert is doing with that O-Line he has is the most impressive rookie QB play I’ve ever witnessed.
-- The Ravens defense can so dominate the weak, you can’t get down on the Bengals assets now…prior week/s they were rolling numbers.
It’s a good time to buy low on Tyler Boyd (4-42-0/6) or very low on Tee Higgins (4-62-0/8) if you were looking for an entry point. The Ravens corners are pretty salty.
-- Drew Sample (2-22-0/2) is not leveraging the ‘you know how Burrow loves TEs’ vibe I too thought existed. Since the Week 2 breakout in the 4th-quarter when C.J. Uzomah got hurt…Sample has had one decent game and two duds. The momentum/trend is he’s a TE2-3 until further notice.
-- J.K. Dobbins (1-34-0, 3-21-0/4) got one carry…popped it for 34 yards, and then that’s that for carries. Thank you for your service.
For the year, Dobbins has 16 carries for 126 yards and 2 TDs…an impressive 7.9 yards per carry. At some point, he’s going to emerge and then the Ravens run game will never be the same again.
Dobbins has 3 or more catches in two of his last 3 games. Very odd for a Ravens RB to get that level of pass game work with Lamar. It’s a good sign of how trusted JKD is. He just needs ‘the job’ and then he might be better than rookie RBs CEH or Jon Taylor in the situations they are in. If all three were full starters named today, I’d want JKD for FF 2020 ROS I do believe. Better offense. Excellent talent.
We may look back in 1-2 years and the answer of top Dynasty Rookie between CEH or Taylor was the answer of JKD.
-- I love Devin Duvernay (1-42-0, 2-17-/2)…talk about a guy who got screwed by his landing spot. If he were a Packer or Chief he'd be one of the rookie stars of 2020 already. Stuck in Lamar Jackson’s offense, I don’t know if he’ll be relevant for years.
John Harbaugh knows he has something here.
Two weeks ago…90+ yard kick return TD. This week, one jet sweep…42 yards.
Both Dobbins and Duvernay are giving little glimpses of the Ravens future, and absolute killer offensive weapon depth. Duvernay would be the best WR on the Jets, Giants, Dolphins right now…and he can’t get on the field in Baltimore.
Snap Counts of Interest:
63 = Sample
13 = C Carter
54 = Mq Brown
38 = Snead
36 = Boykin
18 = Duvernay
25 = Edwards
19 = Ingram
18 = Dobbins
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 5: Game Analysis: Browns 32, Colts 23
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
This was no fluke…the Browns just played a better game. I don’t know that it confirms that the Browns are good because it could just mean we just saw the swan dive of the Indianapolis Colts happen right before our very eyes. The Philip Rivers-led Colts are going NOWHERE. It’s getting so bad that I don’t think you can count this as a ‘quality’ win for the Browns, per se. Actually, it is a quality win…the Colts are dying but OK/strong defense – and the Browns just beat them from the opening kick.
I mean, look who the Browns have beaten…
They scuffled with but beat Cincy Week 2. They were losing in the 4th-quarter to Washington before rallying. They needed a bunch of turnovers and gadget plays to hold off bad Dallas. Here they beat a dying Colts team (because of Rivers…and Reich). We’ll see how good they are at PIT, at CIN, LV the next three weeks. Especially at PIT Week 6 is a huge litmus test. I’m on the fence with them…I think once they start losing, they will collapse in on themselves. If they keep finding a way to win, they almost have a college enthusiasm they’re playing with right now to ride for momentum for a while.
The Colts have the opposite of that. Frank Reich is stoic…and the Colts have taken on that personality. Philip Rivers is dying off right in front of our eyes, and the entire team knows it…but they also know Reich is not removing his friend. It’s going to get painful in Indy until they make the Jacoby Brissett move, which may be weeks away. They can beat Cincy Week 6, then hopefully beat DET Week 8 (Week 7 is a bye). Those two un-quality wins would take them to (5-2). Then they may lose three of 4 with BAL-@TEN-GB-TEN and be (6-5) with a decision to make Week 13 at HOU…on whether they’re better off with Brissett. With Rivers all the way through we project them to 8 wins in the end. A later season change to Brissett puts 9 wins in play. If they changed now, they could be a 10 win team.
It is that bad with Rivers right now…and nothing can fix what’s wrong except facing weaker opponents.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The main reason why the Browns are (4-1) is because the old Baker Mayfield (21-37 for 247 yards, 2 TDs/2 INTs) is starting to appear a little bit.
There’s an energy, a pace, a swagger that Baker has when he’s rolling that can carry an offense/franchise. Signs of it showed in his record-setting 2018 rookie season. It got taken away in 2019. He was also M.I.A. Week 1 getting brutalized by the Ravens.
Then, starting Week 2, the winning started. The heretofore problem WR duo of OBJ-Landry started playing with more pep when they started winning. OBJ looks like he cares a little bit suddenly. Against a very good Colts defense, Baker was masterful in many spots. Making the throws he did at Oklahoma and his NFL rookie season – frozen ropes to the right option at the right time. This peppy Baker Mayfield can get Cleveland to the playoffs, maybe.
The problem is OBJ and Landry are still a problem. When opposing/good teams can get up quickly and with some margin -- I think the OBJ-Landry duo will shrink and the current upbeat Browns team vibe will start to corrupt. A 2-3 game losing streak could flush them down the toilet totally/return them back to their loser ways. Winning cures everything but their schedule is going to turn tougher…and I’m not sure they can cope with the challenge. This week with PIT is a huge test of their mettle.
Baker is back, to a small degree…he still has issues and a heavy run game design to block huge FF upside, but he’s showing a pulse again.
-- T.Y. Hilton (6-69-0/10) caught a few easy, garbage passes from Rivers to go with a few medium route throws to put together his first decent FF day…I’d sell it hot this week if you need to.
The Colts will likely stick with Rivers until at least Week 8, with a change more likely Weeks 11-12…but it’s possible they just go all the way off a cliff with him. TYH suffers, is a WR3-4, with Rivers. He has a name and a good game, and people think they are buying low. There’s a thousand WRs on waivers, likely/depending on your league, that are in the ‘Flex’ range of Hilton.
I see a few people booking deals for Stefon Diggs or Keenan Allen this week using Darrell Henderson (for the RB needy) combined with Hilton (name appeal) to trade up for the better PPR WRs. Hilton as an add on that’s not really one is a savvy way to play it.
Hilton is better but still erratic with Brissett…and we could be several weeks from that, if ever in 2020.
-- Everything is fine with Jonathan Taylor (12-57-1, 2-17-0/3) except Frank Reich isn’t pushing him as his only hope. He still thinks Rivers-led is the way to go. I suspect as we go this season, Taylor will see more and more touches – out of Indy need. He would also benefit from a change to Brissett, I think.
-- D’Ernest Johnson (8-32-0, 1-4-0/1) was a big flop from the hopes of many with him off waivers last week. I wouldn’t close the door all the way on him yet.
Every time he entered this game, the Colts swarmed the run game (as they did to Hunt too…just 3.6 ypc for Hunt here)..or there was a penalty to take the touch away (it seemed). He could never get started, but late in the game Hunt had to leave and lie down holding his leg – and it was Johnson that ran well and salted the game away.
They tried to get Johnson some touches early, but they definitely favored Hunt heavy all throughout until he physically had to come out. Johnson then shined late to help them win – for the second week in a row Johnson was the late game hero, of sorts.
Hunt may be more hurt than we realize…and could be inactive…or just gets reaggravated in-game this week.
-- Odell Beckham’s (5-58-0/9) season minus the Jarvis Landry TD pass Week 4…
20 rec., 257 yards, 2 TDs in 5 games
4.0 rec., 51.4 yds, 0.40 TDs per game…7.5 FF PPG, 11.5 PPR PPG…which is a WR3 or worse type WR in PPR
His Week 4 trick play pass and end-around run TD are fluffing up a hard truth – he’s not very good/great anymore. He’s mostly ‘name’, not reality.
-- After an FF-terrible/sluggish first 3 games…Austin Hooper (5-57-0/10) is coming alive the past two weeks…5.0 rec., 45.5 yards, 0.50 TDs per game on 8.5 targets per game.
The activity is up and I think Hooper has a chance to matter as the WRs usually wind up let down and it’s a safe place for Baker to go…but also note David Njoku 1-6-0/1) returned to action this week…and rookie Harrison Bryant (0-0-0/1) has been playing good snaps as well.
Still, in a sea of problems at TE…Hooper doesn’t look terrible right now.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Njoku was traded before the trade deadline to go back to Bryant as the 2nd-TE and the Miami Dolphins or Washington FTs take a look.
-- Can you trust the Indy-DST after this mess?
It’s like the Chiefs getting whacked by LV…in this era, things happen on offense against a decent opponent. About the only sure bet right now is facing a New York team, or the Jets + any NFC East team.
The schedule is unkind after this week. You got the BYE Week 7 and then at DET is OK Week 8…then doom: BAL-@TEN-GB-TEN-@HOU-@LV-HOU@PIT. Not many favorable/sweet matchups ahead.
-- Might the Browns-DST be in-play?
Later, maybe. Not now. @PIT, @CIN, LV, BYE the next four weeks…really nothing good in there and the Browns defense is not awesome. They struggled with every team they’ve played (on defense) except Philip Rivers. Not a great ‘sign’.
Snap Counts of Interest:
58 = Hooper
29 = Bryant
21 = Njoku
51 = Hunt
22 = D’Ernest
31 = Taylor
21 = Hines
02 = Wilkins
34 = Doyle
25 = Burton
21 = Alie-Cox
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 5: Game Analysis: Raiders 40, Chiefs 32
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
How ‘bout that Chiefs defense, huh? In the era of mass scoring and ignored holding calls…when your DST faces a viable offense, this might happen. The Raiders were good, and are good, on offense but a little bit of luck was thrown in for good measure. Mostly, though, the Raiders are just a very good team/offense and Jon Gruden (my opinion) is a smarter, craftier, better head coach than Andy Reid…Reid just has Mahomes. Reid wasn’t a genius with Alex Smith. Gruden beat KC with an undermanned unit…kudos to Jon.
Like the Chiefs, I took the Raiders FF-lightly with the KC-DST here…and got-got just like KC did.
It was a back & forth game all game, and the real main factor here is, once again, besides their Baltimore game, the Chiefs play lazy because they think/know they can turn on the jets when they need to…and they usually do and win. It was going to catch up to them at some point…and it just did here. KC is the best team in the NFL, because of Mahomes PLUS a top NFL defense, but it also has its own head up its own ass so far (crowded along with the adoring media) that they can’t see so straight. Perhaps, this wake-up call is what they needed. Happens to the best of them.
Kansas City should come out on fire this week and crush their next opponent, you’d think…and/but they face a Buffalo team also recently humiliated with the same mindset. Bad draw for Buffalo because KC has much more talent and is much healthier and two days extra rest. KC could run the table from here, but they’ll probably lose another 1-2 games, maybe 3 more if they keep playing things ‘too cool’.
The Raiders are going to be a tough-out wild card as we projected since June-July. This win kinda solidifies that they are not to be trifled with. They’re only going to get better. KC better not sleep too much on them because the Raiders can win 10+ games this year. If KC slips up again in the near future, it’s only going to fuel Vegas who now has a tiebreaker advantage in their pocket.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- A slightly odd thing happened in the 2nd-quarter of this game…
Devontae Booker (7-62-0, 1-1-0/5) came out and was the ‘main back’ to start the 2nd-quarter drive for the Raiders. Not a big deal. Josh Jacobs (23-77-2, 2-8-0/3) needs a breather from his overuse. Booker looked good for the whole series and it ended kinda quick off a Derek Carr TD bomb to Nelson Agholor.
But here’s the odd thing…
Booker came back out again for the next drive…two drives in-a-row he started. His first carry of the 2nd-drive for him, a sweet 43-yard pop. When it happened live (watching 7 games at one time), I was like ‘wow’ Jacobs really looks quick and made a nice run there. It took me 3-4-5 seconds to realize it was Booker.
Josh Jacobs has one of the lowest ‘yards before contact’ among top RBs (1.6 yards per) – either his O-Line is bad, or they’re consumed by a stacked box attacking Jacobs. Let me see which one it is… Jacobs played 45 snaps and ran the ball 23 times this game…so 50%+ of the time you can guess ‘Jacobs run’ when he’s in. He also got 3 targets. When Jacobs was in, he got the ball 57.8% of the time. Easy to guess for the defense that is definitely stacking Jacobs now on a weekly basis.
Jacobs has a very low ‘yards before contact’ rating and a very low 3.6 yards per carry on the season. It’s either him, the O-Line, or stacked box defenses. I think it’s the most obvious option – stacked boxes with some O-Line injuries not helping.
Subsequently, Booker is averaging a whopping 7.1 yards per carry this season. Aided a bit by the long run but is 4.9 yards per carry outside of the big run.
Just noting this because…
1) We might see a touch more Booker, and a hint less of Jacobs ahead…which would relieve JJ of some burden. Keep him fresh. But possible take his FF opps down a bit.
2) I’d almost bet Jacobs is going to break down from all the mass touches and stacked box defensive hits if he keeps getting overused (and I think this is the most likely outcome ahead)…Booker could be the Mike Davis from Las Vegas, if/when it happens. Just saying… Jacobs owners you better have Booker.
-- Speaking of struggling RBs…Clyde Edwards-Helaire (10-40-0, 3-40-0/8), amiright? How fast did the bloom fall off that rose? What would you have needed to trade for the 1.01 in your Dynasty Rookie Draft to get CEH? I bet it’s not as expensive a proposition today.
It could get worse/cheaper of a price if Le’Veon Bell winds up here in the next few days.
Think it’s not possible? Leonard Fournette was talking with KC. The Chiefs are not inflicted with Rookie Derangement as Fantasy GMs are.
Bell would be in a split with CEH, I imagine…a 60/40 split by Week 8-9. If the KC RB has been an RB 1.5-2.0, what happens when you split their touches? They both become random RB2s like RoJo-Fournette early 2020 season, before Fournette got hurt.
-- Sammy Watkins is going to miss a few weeks (shocker). That SHOULD lead to better Mecole Hardman (2-50-0/3) results but once again Watkins was gone, Hardman played big snap counts…and in a back-and-forth battle against a team with weak corners – Mecole got 2 catches and 3 targets. Beware. Great matchups ahead, but is there such a thing if Hardman isn’t seeing the ball much?
-- Speaking of Mecole Hardman, Mecole 2.0/Henry Ruggs (2-118-1/3) had a Mecole-day right in Mecole’s face. A couple big plays on limited targets. His non-TD catch was pure luck/snatched off the DBs helmet who should’ve picked the pass or knocked away.
I said Ruggs was Mecole-like in my pre-NFL Draft scouting reports…and it’s coming to fruition.
Nelson Agholor (2-67-1/2) is the Raiders #1 WR, but that warrants all of 2 targets in this game.
55 of the Raiders’ 66 plays (rushes/targets) were to the RBs or TEs.
I thought Bryan Edwards could come in and take that #1 WR role, and he kinda did from snap #1 this season (but then got hurt) – but what does that FF-matter is the #1 WR on the Raiders equals 2-4 targets a game?
Hunter Renfrow (1-42-0/2) is playing his arse off…and he caught 1 pass for 2 targets here in a game they beat KC and scored 40 points.
As long as Gruden is there – it’s an RB/TE-based offense and that’s that.
-- Derek Carr (22-31 for 347 yards, 3 TDs/1 INT) is smart about it…he’s not leaning on any one thing for targeting. He wants Waller, but if you take that away he’ll go anywhere else that’s open – not just to ‘his bailout guy’ over and over (like Kyler+Hopkins, or Brees+Thomas). Good for NFL…bad for FF WRs/projections on Carr’s style.
Since Week 2, Carr is the #12 QB in FF PPG (4pts per pass TD).
-- Chiefs rookie LB Willie Gay (6 tackles, 1 sack) played a season high 47% of the snaps and had season highs in all his output categories. Looks like he’s working his way to becoming a starter. I’m not a huge fan, but he’s progressing.
-- Maxx Crosby (2 tackles, 1.0 sacks, 2 QB hits) started out slow Weeks 1-2, but is coming on now – 4.0 sacks his last 3 games. He’s starting to get back to his high IDP ways he finished 2019 with.
-- Lost faith in the KC-DST? Don’t.
Week 6 = KC at BUF…I told you to prep for this week with Miami ahead of time.
Week 7 = KC at Drew Lock
Week 8 = KC v. Darnold/Flacco
Week 9 = KC v. Teddy could go either way
Week 10 = BYE (Miami v. LAC is now really dying as an option)…could be a jumping off point for KC-DST, or Week 9 for a better Week 9-10 punch.
Week 11 = at Derek Carr again (Miami at Drew Lock)
Week 12 = at Brady (Miami at Flacco/Darnold)
Week 13 = KC at Drew Lock
Week 14 = KC at Fitz/Tua
The COVID schedule changes messed up my master plan a little bit from weeks ago on this. Still good though.
Snap Counts of Interest:
63 = Tyreek
50 = Hardman
49 = Dem Robinson
26 = Watkins
43 = CEH
29 = DWilliams
45 = Jacobs
15 = Booker
14 = Richard
55 = Agholor
45 = Ruggs
24 = Renfrow
09 = Zay Jones
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 5: Game Analysis: Cardinals 30, Jets 10
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
I don’t think anyone was shocked by this outcome…and my only comment is: It was worse than it looked. Of all the teams in the NFL, the Jets are the most likely to go winless this year. Their schedule ahead is brutal, and they are a horrifically bad team/franchise.
Arizona gets a win, but not a quality win. Not sure Arizona has a quality win this year looking back on things. If they lose to Dallas this week, the Cardinals could be in serious trouble of a collapse. The Cards are staring down 5-6 losses in-a-row starting Week 7. They desperately need to win this week to have any playoff hope ahead.
This game was so bad Le’Veon quit the team/got fired. Let’s deal with him first.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Where is Le’Veon Bell going? I’m not sure but I’m laughing at some of the proposed matchmaking going on. Fun to read.
What’s Le’Veon’s motivation right now? He just got paid a ton of money and he’ll never see a big payday again unless he gets with a team where he can be used/be a starter or co-starter. A ‘ring’ is not a big deal because he has that already. This is probably about Le’Veon’s ability to make money now and setting up more money next year.
He needs to go where he thinks he has the coach wrapped around his finger or goes to a high profile team and shows what he can do in a split role.
So, where would that be?
#1a) Chicago Bears
The obvious choice for Bell, and for the team that’s in total despair at RB…and has a chance to be a playoff team this year. They should be all-in and give Bell the job within 2-3 weeks. Nagy would be in awe of Bell…which is what Bell needs.
Matt Nagy is not that swift…or he wouldn’t have cut Mike Davis last year and he still wouldn’t be trying to force David Montgomery to work perpetually. I think acquiring Bell could Nagy the cover to sweep David Montgomery aside and try to juice the run game.
1b) Kansas City Chiefs
The Vegas odds leader.
Le’Veon followed Mahomes on Twitter Wednesday and Mahomes returned the favor. If KC can get him cheap, I think they’d look at it. I don’t think CEH has them all warm and fuzzy feeling yet.
If Bell wants less money, more profile – he goes here.
I just think Bell goes where the most money/opportunity is…but he could take the better team to play for option.
#2) Washington FT
They can win the NFC East, and having a more experienced, legit RB could help. No current FT RB would be offended at taking a back seat to Bell. Ron Rivera can use him as an experiment and cut him if it doesn’t work.
Just think of the Christian McCaffrey-style/based offense Le’Veon could step into here for FF.
#3) Miami Dolphins
Brian Flores is a loon with his RB choices, so not sure he’d even want Bell…but the Dolphins should be (3-3) after this week and have a real shot at the playoffs and they need a real running game. Bell would go to Miami in a heartbeat…he is often spotted there and may live there (among many homes).
Odds this week…
35% = Chicago
25% = Kansas City
10% = Washington
10% = Miami
20% = Wait for the next big RB injury to happen to have max. leverage.
I don’t think it will be…
Baltimore – They don’t need Le’Veon for their wars with Pittsburgh. It sounds cute but not a need.
Las Vegas – This regime has already been burned by ex-Steeler head cases.
L.A. Chargers – RB is not their issue…O-Line is. Not an Anthony Lynn kinda guy.
Buffalo – It’s the O-Line not a lack of RBs. Ditto: Philly.
-- Taking over for Bell will be Gore/Perine and neither are very good and work behind a terrible O-Line and awful QB, so they will do little/nothing for FF as ‘starters’. Perine may catch 3-4-5 passes in games to be PPR useful Flex in deeper leagues.
-- Arizona has been floated as a possible landing spot…a former RB coach for the Steelers with Bell is in Arizona now. Arizona has bigger issues and still they believe in Kenyan Drake (18-60-1) for some reason.
Drake looks very sluggish and feels like he’s about to lose his job. Bell could be a Kingsbury guy…Arizona would be my #4 most likely. Either Bell or Chase Edmonds (3-36-1, 5-56-0/7) is going to be pushing Drake in the next few weeks.
I thought we’d see more signs of the Drake toppling here, but Drake got 18 carries in this blowout…they’re still ‘believing’/trying to get him going.
-- Christian Kirk (5-78-0/7) has a nice game but note that Kyler had all day to throw and that helped push numbers to all, and Kirk got a bump. I wanna say it’s not a big deal but Arizona has Dallas-Seattle-Buffalo-Seattle over the next 6 weeks…four great output potential games that ALL can’t go to D. Hopkins (or maybe they can, they seem to).
Kirk has legit upside hope the next few weeks…but he is a ghost too many times in this low yardage passing game.
-- Jeff Smith (3-23-0/11) didn’t have a big game after his splash debut Week 4…but note that he did have 11 targets, but also note most of what Joe Flacco throws is useless so don’t be too impressed.
Also, note that the moment Breshad Perriman and/or Denzel Mims comes back…it’s the end of the Jeff Smith fairy tale for a while/forever.
Perriman is a sleeper play hopeful, but the schedule ahead is brutal for a #1 WR…MIA-BUF-KC-NE-BYE-LAC-MIA…7 useless weeks ahead for Perriman…or Mims.
Mims might have a moment when both he and Perriman are on the field.
-- Chandler Jones is done for the year, so who steps up for Arizona?
Kylie Fitts (3 tackles) is the natural pass rusher option and played the most snaps in relief (34).
However, you know who came in late as a OLB/DE and played just 10 snaps but rang up 2.0 sacks in that time…my former love child IDP prospect Dennis Gardeck (2 tackles, 2.0 sacks).
My head says Fitts gets the chance. But after re-watching this game, not only did Gardeck get to two sacks (one of his sheer will, the other QB flushed toward him) BUT Gardeck was literally steamrolling his blocker on every pass rush…just brute strength bullying the helpless Right Tackle into the backfield.
I think both will play, Gardeck more on passing downs…and you know I always thought Gardeck would be a monster if he ever got the chance. He may be about to…only as a pass rusher, I thought he’d be a terrific ILB. Hopefully, Gardeck can get a chance that he’s been screwed out of for years in Arizona.
-- John Franklin-Myers (4 tackles, 1 sack) is starting to make pass rushing waves with NYJ. He got his first sack of the year but note that he has 6 QB hits already this year in limited playing time. He’s due for more sacks at the pace he’s going.
Snap Counts of Interest:
34 = Fitts
29 = Chandler Jones
10 = Gardeck
50 = Drake
34 = Edmonds
68 = J Smith
52 = Crowder
24 = Berrios
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 5: Game Analysis: Titans 42, Bills 16
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
Battle of the undefeateds…and it goes to the Titans, convincingly. The Bills never seemed to be in this game. Either the Bills aren’t as good as advertised, and/or the Titans are better than I thought, and/or sometimes things don’t make total sense.
My two defenses for Buffalo would be…
1) Missing Tre’Davious White and John Brown is quite a hit…and then also ILB Matt Milano and CB Levi Wallace out on top of that was some heart & soul taken away before kick.
2) When the Chiefs fell this week, and didn’t look sharp, the football world shrugged its shoulders at the oddity. While the Bills fall and everyone ‘knows they’re a fraud’.
Which then we need to add a third thought…
3) The Titans are a really good team, like Buffalo, but don’t carry the same prominence Iike Buffalo prior). We can’t generally believe a Ryan Tannehill-led team that runs the ball a lot can be a top NFL team.
Since Ryan Tannehill took over in Week 7 last season, the Titans are (11-3) in the regular-season and (13-4) adding in the playoffs. In the same span that Buffalo’s been good too, they are (10-5) in the regular season since Week 7 last season (ignoring their Week 17 last season that didn’t matter/Allen sat). (10-6) record with their playoff loss. Since Week 7 last year, Tennessee has a slightly better regular season record than Buffalo and then they won two playoffs games, while Buffalo lost their playoff game.
In a battle of the top unrecognized better/top 5 level type teams in the NFL…the Titans just won a head-to-head matchup, kinda ‘crowning’ themselves the kings of the unloved good-to-great NFL teams.
Tennessee is now (4-0) and has a pretty favorable schedule ahead. 10+ wins easy and the AFC South crown coming their way. Before we get too far out there on them – they won their first three games against very bad teams by 2, 3, and 1 point…before blowing out the Bills. If they lost to Houston next week, I would not be shocked.
Buffalo gets embarrassed on national TV, so you don’t want to be the NFL team that plays them next week! Oops, Week 6 they get the also-just-embarrassed KC Chiefs on Monday Late Afternoon Football this week. We are projecting 9-10 wins for the Bills, more on the ten side…but they are taking on too many hits with injuries the past 2-3 weeks.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Now is the time to buy Josh Allen (26-41 for 263 yards, 2 TDs/2 INTs) for fantasy! Finally, a nice/lower entry point was created.
…Wait, you’re not excited? Look at that look on your face!
You gotta be kidding me? After everything I’ve written for weeks?
How can you not like going and getting Josh Allen now? Just admit it – you don’t like Josh Allen, do you? You never did. You just pretended to go along with all this Allen-attention. https://youtu.be/IgHThXuheOM
After all this time…after all my words…after me admitting I was wrong…one so-so game and your true colors come out. How can you not like Josh Allen? https://youtu.be/4wMQz3iJDzE
Seriously, you’re not interested now…
Why?
Because you don’t really believe in Allen. Never did. It makes sense. We’ve all lived in a world for 2+ years where Josh Allen was supposed to be terrible, we couldn’t accept that Allen had turned a page/changed anytime he put up decent FF numbers. It was probably more likely he was just on a hot streak/lucky, and you feared that if you bought into it…it was only going to burn you. Now, you saw him look erratic on national TV and his team getting killed…and two picks…and not-300 yards passing – it’s all confirming your fears. Who wants in on that?
Note…that’s exactly what the current Allen holder is thinking. I don’t care what they say out loud or text you…I know their inner monologue. Which means now is the perfect time to strike. They feel like they have a sinking ship about to fully sink…but they can’t let you know that.
NFL teams are lucky to convert 50% of their 3rd-downs in a game or on the season. And usually, in one game, they convert about 4-8 of them. Josh Allen was 13-of-17 on 3rd-downs in this game…which is mind blowing. He didn’t have his best night. Threw some balls offline where WRs had their hands on it but couldn’t haul it in. Had two picks but note that one of them was a clank off a 5th-string WR’s hands and into a Titans defender’s hands. When the Bills got down 28-10, Allen went on a methodical 6+ minute, 14-play, 90-yard drive (converting three 3rd-downs) to close it to 28-16…and then it fell apart on Bills defense and a kick return fumble from there.
A ‘bad’ game from Josh Allen resulted in 264 yards passing, 2 TDs (with 2 picks, 1 fluke one), 18 yards rushing…if that’s the worst it gets that’s OK.
If I owned Deshaun Watson, I’d so offer him straight up for Josh Allen right now.
On my Kyler for Josh Allen + _____ consideration of the past few weeks. That ____ just got a lot bigger. A lot bigger. The marketplace commands it…or you walk away from the negotiating table. If you even want to go there. You don’t have to. Feel free to keep Kyler…I’m just saying – the Allen market just cratered because it was weak-hands holding all along (and when Justin Herbert has a game like this, his stock price will tumble…because people don’t really believe…I also want to note that the Chase Claypool price isn’t as terrible as I thought to still acquire in places, because he wasn’t supposed to be this good – they are trying to trade you a little better version of Travis Fulgham in their minds).
If you don’t believe in Allen, you don’t believe. It’s not a crime.
I think Allen looked very good in a tough game, and considering his defense is all banged up and they can’t run the ball…Allen has to carry the team ahead. Opposing defenses don’t believe in Josh Allen, so they are still daring him to beat them – you want in on that for fantasy.
-- As Allen goes, so goes his top targets...two of them:
1) Stefon Diggs (10-106-0/16) is a threat to be the #1 WR in PPR this year. And because people fear an Allen collapse, they are willing to deal Diggs in the right deal. You’d be surprised, but shouldn’t, that he’s available.
A lot of fantasy experts are writing articles, insider advice to sell off Josh Allen and related pieces ahead of the collapse.
I’m buying Diggs, not desperately…I’m buying smart, trying to expose their true feelings. I don’t care what they text or email me. I assume they are secretly scared like all of football society, and I’m going to run a sword through it…or I walk.
I’d like to trade a hype WR + ___ medium trinket for Diggs.
Like (in redraft) if you have Justin Jefferson and Darrell Henderson and the Diggs owner is desperate for a warm body RB in a redraft this week type of deal. Jefferson-Edmonds (If you don;t need RB depth)? Fuller-Edmonds (fearing Fuller injury)? Lamb-Henderson? Just some food for thought concepts. You might even get a touch more (Diggs + __) if the RB desperation is high for them and not you.
2) John Brown would have made a difference here if active. The Gabriel Davis (5-58-0/9) night would have been more 7-70-0 or 7-70-1 with Brown. A few times Davis ran a different route than Allen expected, and they miscommunicated…that happens with a rookie, not as likely with the more talented Brown.
If you think people don’t believe in Allen…they certainly don’t care about John Brown. He’s like a WR3 acquisition. He’s a layup. He might even be dropped in 10-team leagues. I’m in. All that has hurt him is being out of action/out of the view, and his boring name in general (who is named John Brown anyway…what kind of dull parents did he have?), and with people scared Allen dies and everything falls with him.
-- The fact that the Bills cannot run the ball helps the passing game get pushed more. Devin Singletary (11-25-0, 1-8-0/1) barely could take a step before pressure was on him up the interior. The Bills have an O-Line issue and it’s all but killed any interior run game.
Singletary has one of the lowest ‘yards before contact’ numbers of any RB in the NFL right now.
1.2 avg. yards before contact for the season for Singletary is worse than Zeke Elliott (1.8) or Miles Sanders (1.8) or Le’Veon Bell (1.6) among others working behind corrupted O-Lines that come to mind.
One RB is worse…Zack Moss (0.9).
These are dreadful/foreboding numbers for a running back, and it’s hitting both Buffalo RBs...so it's 'not just one of them'. A terrible schedule of run defenses is heading their way too. I don’t think you can count on Singletary to really help you much ahead. He’s a warm body RB2-3 that Allen was throwing a lot too, but not this game. Moss returning doesn’t help either.
Maybe the O-Line gets tweaked and things get back to normal, but right now, ‘on paper’ this is looking terrible.
-- Ryan Tannehill (21-28 for 195 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT, 4-42-1) just quietly goes about another 4 TD week. One of the great fantasy QBs of the past 16 NFL weeks and he’s still on and off waivers/people don’t believe.
He doesn’t rack the yards, but he gets the TDs. I wanted us to all consider him as a backup/emergency QB to hold a few weeks ago (if needed) – hope you held (or dumped for Herbert). He’s a higher-end QB1 his past 14-15 games and no one believes it or thinks it will continue…and, yet, it does.
We can’t get our minds wrapped around Tannehill or Josh Allen, but we feel good about Deshaun Watson, Drew Brees, Jared Goff, even the Matt’s (Ryan and Stafford) bouncing back way more than we have confidence in Tannehill.
It’s illogical based on the last 15 starts for all of them, but…we get classically conditioned to names and ‘the past’ and it’s tough to let go. Just look at some of the shirts in your closet you’re holding onto.
-- Tannehill throws to A.J. Brown (7-82-1/9) as his primary but because Tannehill is low yards and lower volume, it’s not always going to be like this game for AJB – plus, if Tre’Davious White played, AJB would have had a 3-35-0 game. Buffalo missing two starting corners was a killer…good for AJB.
Jonnu Smith (5-40-2/7) benefitted from a missing linebacker and the missing corners, but Jonnu is putting up regular 4-5 catch, 40-60 yards games with a TD now, which makes him a god in today’s TE market. If he’s your #2 TE, everyone is coming for him – don’t give it up easy. Make them pay or hold.
‘Any TE is fine’ or ‘there’s plenty of TEs’ is the refrain in the preseason/redraft…and then half+ the league has no viable TE by Week 5 and is in a desperate search for relief and thinks anyone with two good TEs should charitably give one away. Don’t fall for it easily – make them pay or walk away.
-- Who is Nick Westbrook (1-7-0/1)? Hell, if I know… I mean, I know him but I don’t know why he is starting an NFL game in his rookie season of Week 6. There are so many other/better UDFA WRs out there for a team to consider.
Westbrook is capable/solid. Good size (6’2”/215). Solid hands. Was forgettable at Indiana, not-the-teams #1 WR, and battled an ACL tear in college.
Nothing to see here for FF ahead.
-- I recommended the Titans-DST as one to watch to stream ahead because they’re good and have some good schedule moments ahead, but I didn’t not think vs. BUF would be one of them.
Usable next week v. HOU for some.
Weeks 9-12 is where it could get interesting: CHI-IND-BAL-IND…aside from BAL week…if Philip Rivers is still being trotted out there.
Snap Counts of Interest:
47 = AJ Brown
45 = Nick Westbrook
36 = Kalif Raymond
35 = Kroft
25 = Knox
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 5: Game Analysis: Panthers 23, Falcons 16
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
Make it three in-a-row for the team I so wanted to bet the ‘over’ win total (5.5) on but I chickened out…just a light/fun bet not a serious one. I should’ve gotten serious. Matt Rhule has taken a leaky defense, a suspect O-Line, a free agent QB, and Mike Davis and has become a playoff/division contender in just five games into his rookie head coaching season with limited preseason/training camp 2020 COVID era prep.
Three wins in-a-row now…and the Panthers were ‘in it’ in their first two games/losses to the final 5 minutes or so. Imagine what Rhule is going to do in another year or two? Imagine what he might do this season? This team is getting better every week. If they go and beat Chicago this week (6)…then everyone is going to take them seriously. We see the Panthers hitting 7-8 wins for the season, but 9 (and a wild card) is on the table.
The loss to Carolina stung so bad the Falcons fired their coach over it. I mean, a change was needed but this team was playing decent ball early in the season and were dealing with several key injuries right from the jump. I don’t think this firing was warranted, but a change needed to happen -- so why not now? The GM should’ve been fired first and let Quinn see if he could turn things like he did last year, when his key players came back from injury – but people have had enough and so a change happened.
It’s not a good change…it’s just a change. O-C Dirk Koetter has been a bad coach for years, and he’s still there…so not much will change as he coaches his final season in Atlanta. He’ll surely be fired with the new administration coming in. Houston needed a break from Bill O’Brien, but I don’t know that Quinn gone is going to make this team perk up – I bet they get whacked this week.
Atlanta could be an underdog in every game the rest of the season and maybe win 2-4 games. The veterans will start mailing it in/not coming back from injury as fast and this thing will swirl down the drain further.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- A tale of two QBs…
Teddy Bridgewater (27-37 for 313 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) played his sharpest game of 2020…he’s only getting better, more comfortable as he goes…which is bad news for the rest of this division. A division with aging QBs not getting any younger/better. Teddy’s numbers are starting to rise as he becomes a viable FF QB on matchups.
Matt Ryan (21-37 for 2266 yards, 0 TD/1 INT) is fading away. He’s back to his jumpy/hurried, uninspiring self. No longer the garbage time swashbuckler he used to be. The owner is noncommittal on him as his QB of the future – so basically his employer just disrespected him, so now Ryan will respond to that.
How will he respond? He’ll start playing safe football. No more waiting in the pocket too long. He’s going to throw dump passes and bombs and not care whether he wins or loses as much. Why try hard when your boss was just fired, unceremoniously and the owner just dissed you?
The real reason Ryan will reel it in – he is set to make $40.9M next season…that’s not a typo. He can get paid $40.9M to play, or $49.9M if he gets cut. He’s going to destroy their cap in 2021, a reduced overall cap for the league in 2021, one way or the other (staying or getting cut). If Ryan is cut, he will have made over $150M+ in salary/pay along from his time in Atlanta. He’ll be 36+ years old next year. Why would he want to continue on in the NFL? Unless he loves the locker room and would enjoy being a backup for pocket change (for him) deals – we might be seeing the total end of Ryan’s career in 2020.
He looks terrible right now, so what NFL team will want (in 2021) a ridiculously overpaid for his career QB at the end of his skills with little motivation beyond ‘hanging on/hanging around’…i.e. the Philip Rivers’ story? The Dallas Cowboys should be on the phone right now for a 2020 run…but they may not be all that much better with Ryan over Andy Dalton. Kyle Shanahan might be on the horn right now...
Ryan is going to fade away and take some fantasy scoring down with him. All his throws will go to Julio and Ridley, and randomly everywhere else.
-- Todd Gurley (14-121-1, 4-29-0/5) is getting a boost from fading Ryan because he gets more dump passes and run opportunities as they try to limit their Ryan exposure in the offense.
I just wonder if the first player traded this next few days/week is Todd Gurley? Why would they keep him through his one-year deal? That thought means Brian Hill (6-39-0/11) could be a shock main starter soon.
If you believe that, now is the time to stick him on the back of the bench and see what happens.
-- Mike Davis (16-89-0, 9-60-1/10) looks like he has at least one more week of starting before Christian McCaffrey returns. Three thoughts on Davis…
1) Is Davis really going back to being a nobody when CMC returns? CMC’s touches may be down a bit upon return.
2) The Bears signed Davis to a nice deal last year, and then cut him outright midseason. Does anyone blame/question Matt Nagy? Nope, the Bears are (4-1), so all is well/above rebuke today.
3) Davis couldn’t find work last year, but Todd Gurley makes all the money? Who would you rather have for your NFL backfield today? Let’s handout more giant RB contracts NFL…they really make a ton of sense.
The Panthers are really dying without McCaffrey (they are 3-0 without him this season).
-- It’s not showing in the fantasy scoring, but Curtis Samuel (4-28-0, 5-36-0/5) has been wonderful for the Panthers in his new role. He’s shown to be a legit runner of the ball as a tailback…a tough as nail runner for his size. He’s making reliable/tough catches as a WR. He made the key block to spring D.J. Moore’s long TD this game.
He’s been an unsung hero for this team. He’s been OK/WR3-4 for fantasy. He’s useful among the deeper Flex options, he’s due for a TD, but I don’t see great FF consistency coming any time soon and when CMC returns – he’s done at RB.
-- D.J. Moore (4-93-1/5) took a little dump pass and was off to the races for a 57-yard TD aided by that Samuel block. Outside of that play – 3 catches for 36 yards on 4 targets otherwise. DJM is not a major part of this passing game. Both Robby Anderson and Curtis Samuel are getting more/better looks or touches.
I’d try to trade Moore hot off this event, and while his name still holds appeal.
-- Hayden Hurst (2-8-0/6) had decent targeting and he was open for one TD at least, but Ryan misfires to him often. He and Hurst are not in any sync, and I’m not sure they ever will be this season.
-- Falcons LB Foye Oluokun (14 tackles, 1 TFL) has averaged 8.5 tackles per game this season. AND he’s only played two full games as starter (not starter Wk1, hurt/left early Wk2).
-- CAR rookie DB Jeremy Chinn (9 tackles) has made at least 7 total tackles in every game this season and is averaging 8.8 total tackles per game.
-- Very quietly the Panthers defense is moving into the middle of the pack in many defensive categories…and now the #4 pass defense in yards per game allowed. The problem is they are #31 in the NFL with only 5 sacks – they aren’t creating any chaos for FF numbers. They have the least QB hits in the league so far.
But they’ve held three decent offenses to 17.7 PPG the last three weeks (Herbert-Kyler-Ryan). They are starting to get more pressure/numbers the last few weeks. Week 6 vs. CHI might not be too awful for FF.
Week 14 they have DEN, Week 16 they are at WAS…we might be using them in the FF playoffs.
Snap Counts of Interest:
63 = Zaccheaus
48 = Ridley
40 = Gage
36 = Gurley
20 = Br Hill
51 = DJ Moore
48 = Samuel
47 = Robby A
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 5: Game Analysis: Rams 30, Football Team 10
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
Well, I had a great week of handicapping overall…best of 2020 season…but my best bet of the Football Team +9.0 blew up in my face. My only loss on my Blazing Five.
What happened? Well, I’m not sure if it would have mattered…but once Kyle Allen went out – this one was over. Alex Smith was not ready. It’s not like TFC was looking that good prior. The rain then began to fall harder with Smith’s arrival, which only exasperated things.
The Rams were just smarter, better executed, and the Rams defense was tougher than Washington’s much of the game. Quality win on the road, in the rain for a Rams team I thought would fall flat and struggle in this spot.
The Rams can put the 49ers out of their misery for 2020 by beating them this upcoming week. If the Rams lose Week 6 at SF, they allow the 49ers to get back into the race and drop the Rams down within striking distance. We project the Rams to 9-10 wins right now.
Washington is just a game out of 1st-place…but they also only have one win on the season and have lost four in-a-row. They have NYG-DAL-bye-NYG the next 4 weeks…if they can win two of 3, they could be (3-6) and maybe tied for 1st-place. They have three winnable games after that with DET-CIN-DAL. Seven wins will win this division but I’m not sure Washington can get there. We see 5-6 wins more likely.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- It wasn’t much better with Kyle Allen (9-13 for 74 yards, 0 TDs/0 INT) starting over Dwayne Haskins, but it was better. Allen played under control, safe…not like the walking turnover known as ‘Haskins’.
Allen was playing small ball – short, safe dump passes and trying to run clock and take small bites to get downfield. Not taking sacks or throwing picks. It’s better than what they were doing.
However, once Alex Smith (9-17 for 37 yards, 0 TDs/0 INT) entered then everything changed for the worse. It might be Smith is rusty, how could he not be, or it could be that Smith is ‘done’ and it’s a nice story that doesn’t matter in the end or ‘end well’.
Smith was truly awful here. Jittery. Throwing passes to short receivers anytime he could. When he had to throw deep later in the game he seemed like he was closing his eyes and over and under throwing all over. He looked dreadful. The rain wasn’t helping. Smith was sacked 6 times in a half+ of play.
Washington is down to Kyle Allen as their only hope. In this era of abundant QBs…how did this happen? He’s Rivera’s guy from the Carolina days, and all those losses late last year that got him fired – Allen was the QB/author and now is his choice to turn this Washington mess around. Good luck with that.
-- I’m already sick of hearing it, but I know it’s going to get worse every day this week…the chatter about Sean McVay wanting to get more touches to Cam Akers (9-61-0). Straight from McVay’s mouth post-game.
All I can say is – take McVay at his word. And where do you think those touches are coming from? From Darrell Henderson’s (15-38-1, 3-30-1/4) account, that’s where.
Thanks Darrell…it’s been swell. I’ve got to go.
I’ve got to turn on you, even though I don’t want to. A lot of FF teams are burned by BYEs and everything else this week…there’s a potential market for a live human RB (DHendo) with some hope…you might be surprised by the trades you can make. I’m shocked at some of the first ones I’ve seen…dealing DH for helpful WRs (I saw a straight deal in redraft for Justin Jefferson already among other similar level names) or DH mixed into multiplayer deals.
Akers looked good in his late-game mercy carries against a water-soaked, defeated Washington defense…so, that means Akers is ‘the man’ now. I’m not going to bother analyzing it, complaining about it, or wishing it weren’t true. I’m taking McVay at his word backed up by his actions with Henderson for the past two years.
-- Washington RB situation is evolving…
Antonio Gibson (11-27-0, 5-24-0/5) is starting to run out of steam. The rookie excitement wearing off and revealing just a decent, over-his-head RB getting 10+ carries a game and not rushing for a ton of yards but you hope he somehow scores a short TD. We got a lot of those type RBs in FF right now.
What is starting perk is J.D. McKissic (1-3-0, 6-46-0)…the new James White, or the old Chris Thompson for Washington – like back during that one stretch where Thompson PPR-back’d his way to RB1 levels for several weeks on giant catch counts/output.
McKissic has seen 8 targets in each of his last two games and caught 7 and 6 passes in each of those games.
With Kyle Allen, and the bad Washington O-Line…the best play they have is Allen looking downfield for a second and then tossing it short to McKissic. J.D. is on the verge of becoming their Christian McCaffrey-lite, as I’ve mentioned the past two weeks – undersized runner with the heart of a dragon, very elusive, and great hands ready for all the dump passes they want to throw at him.
You could do worse looking for BYE week help in PPR. He could be a 7-10 catch, 50+ yards and hope for a lucky TD guy ahead in this Kyle Allen offense.
-- All tight ends are terrible in fantasy except like 2-3 of them. Three terrible ones played in this game…
1) Tyler Higbee (2-12-0/2) is dead. Not been used legit in the passing game all year except in little bursts here and there. No strong purpose or regularity. Gone was the chance that he continued his late 2019. Most TEs are busting/disappointing except Kelce and Waller, and Kittle in that one game…so, most of us were going to be scrambling for TEs at this point anyway. It’s time to write off/replace this particular asset.
Yes, as soon as you cut him he will catch 8 passes for 125 yards for some other team and you’ll fly into a rage. But what else are we to do here? His target counts are: 3-5-2-3-2 in his five games. Are you kidding me?
2) Logan Thomas (1-4-0/4) was viable for a moment but the moment’s gone. Died after Week 2. I knew it would.
3) Higbee’s fall is not because of Gerald Everett (4-90-0/4). Everett’s catch counts prior to this week were: 1-0-2-1. That’s not a real plan. You take advantage of Washington’s linebackers with the TE, and the Rams did…with Everett…not Higbee.
-- Strong effort by the Rams-DST here. Three more weeks of opportunity before it’s time to bail most likely. At SF, CHI, at MIA the next 3 weeks before a Week 9 BYE. Then the schedule ramps up after the BYE: SEA, at TB, SF, at ARI, NE, NYJ, at SEA through Week 16.
-- Washington-DST is so erratic and disappointing but they’ve played good offenses/QBs the past four weeks. Their schedule ahead is money in at least two of the next four weeks…if not three of the next 4 weeks.
Week 6 = at Dan Jones
Week 7 = v. Dalton
Week 8 = BYE
Week 9 = v. Dan Jones
Anything against Daniel Demise is a good thing for DSTs.
Snap Counts of Interest:
54 = McLaurin
42 = I Wright
31 = Inman
23 = Gandy-Golden
30 = Gibson
27 = McKissic
56 = Higbee
30 = Everett
29 = DHendo
26 = M Brown
13 = Akers
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 5: Game Analysis: Saints 30, Chargers 27 OT
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
I kept thinking, last night as the Chargers let a win get away…the Chargers are too good to be (1-4). AND, I also thought…thank God for Anthony Lynn coming through for my ‘under’ 7.5 win total bets in the preseason. My top two bets for over/under win totals…LAC under 7.5, NYG under 6.5 wins…it’s money right now. Now, I just need Houston to win 7 of their final 11 games to complete my ‘hat trick’ (not going to happen).
This is the Chargers in 2020… Better than the other team because of their QB, but Anthony Lynn is cursed – he finds ways to lose games like a Fantasy owner on a bad sit-start decision streak. Michael Badgley doinked the game-winning FG off the post…or everyone would be hailing Justin Herbert and burying Drew Brees today. Two OT losses this season for LAC. Four losses in-a-row, all games they were the better team and should’ve won.
I’m shouldn’t be counting my money yet on the Chargers ‘under’ 7.5 wins – they could easily win their next five in-a-row (JAX, at DEN, LV, at MIA, NYJ), but they have two tough road trips in there…the two toughest road trips in the NFL in COVID 2020. We are projecting LAC to 7-8 wins, so my bet is still up in the air. I should lose this bet with the early turn to Herbert, but my bet was a lot on Anthony Lynn (and his Tyrod), so as long as he is there…I like my chances.
The Saints have the opposite issue. They are (3-2), lucky not to be (1-4) right now and losers of 4 in-a-row. Drew Brees is fading away slowly, softly, but still good enough to take advantage of other team’s mistakes. This is by far the worst looking Saints team in years, as Brees is fading away and Michael Thomas is becoming a locker room cancer (and they have a few others too).
I don’t know where the Saints will end up in the end…division winner, wild card, Final Four…but I know they are not getting to or winning a Super Bowl with this team – which means this current group never will get there. It’s over. Good but not good enough the past several years, and also very unlucky. The clock is about to strike midnight on the Saints. The Panthers and Bucs are the future of the NFC South, and the future is now – had the Saints lost…the Panthers and Bucs would be ahead of them in the standings.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Everyone thought ‘Josh Kelley’ (11-29-0, 1-9-0/1) but the right answer to the ‘winner’ of the Austin Ekeler injury is Justin Jackson (15-71-0, 5-23-0/6). Jackson started and was clearly the better back here.
Jackson is the RB to own now until Ekeler’s return, but be wary of this depleted O-Line, and then JJax will be in that complementary role with Ekeler after. Huge blow to Kelley’s FF value here. You thought you had an RB1-2 on your hands after Weeks 1-2…now, he will be cut soon in redrafts, when/if Ekeler is back.
Kelley has run the ball 28 times for 79 yards (2.8 ypc) the past three games. How many of us got caught in rookie RB hysteria? Not just on Kelley, but overall?
Kelley has been dying since Week 3.
Antonio Gibson fading off.
James Robinson falling asleep.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire…fantasy semi-bust since Week 2.
Jonathan Taylor not getting the right touches on a bad offense.
D’Andre Swift…boring.
J.K. Dobbins…buried.
Ke’Shawn Vaughn…why did anyone think he’d get past RoJo?
Zack Moss…not taking over for Singletary.
Cam Akers…3rd-best Rams RB?
Did I tell you or did I tell you (at CFM all summer) that the power of this 2020 Dynasty Rookie Draft was trading it away? Now look…you could acquire any of these RBs for a small or large discount off what they were going for in August or after Week 1. I wanted Bryan Edwards in the 2nd-round…and he’s available for half-price now too.
Some of these rookie RBs will be fine, but there’s always a rookie euphoria…and then the magical unicorn bubble bursts and they are just regular old RBs not as good as the backup RB in Carolina that the Bears just didn’t see any value in last year when they had him/cut him because magical unicorn rookie David Montgomery had a cool stat from PFF that proved how great he was.
The NFL gets sucked in…we all get sucked in by the rookies.
-- The rookie we all should’ve been sucked in by is Justin Herbert (20-34 for 264 yards, 4 TDs/0 INTs). I tried to get all of us in on him the past 2-3 weeks, as the price went higher and higher. Some of you got in, others couldn’t extract him. I was hoping he’d have a so-so MNF game to bring the heat down…ummm, no.
No sense shopping for him now, the price is maxed out. Just like with Chase Claypool, you missed your window. You have to wait impatiently to see if you’ll get another one.
I’ll keep saying it – he’s better than Joe Burrow. And I didn’t think that would be possibly in January-August. Nothing against Burrow, who is great as well.
Many FFM teams got radically upgraded the past few weeks with cheaper investments into Chase Claypool and Justin Herbert – you bought stars who will transform your redraft teams now and transform your Dynasty to come.
Some just sat and watched and thought there was still time.
Time’s up. You missed it.
You can’t get every player recommended, but my recommendations were pretty lofty and enthusiastic here. When you email me about how Tyler Higbee sucks, note I’m giving many ‘fixes’ ahead of time along the way at all positions. We can afford to drift/die at TE if we have a killer QB, stud WRs, stable/deep RBs, and great DST schedule streaming with great depth overall (Claypool and Herbert on most people’s benches this past week). Many FFM-based teams scuffled out of the gates and hopped on the right trains/waivers/deals Weeks 3-4-5 and are starting roll. That’s why I pleaded for no panic off a tough start – we often ‘feel’ are way through the early part of the season finding hidden gems before everyone else and they just need a minute to blossom. If you've been with me for years, you’ve been through the race like this many a-time. This is the time we shine…as we go. Let more hands of poker be dealt and we’ll be fine.
-- One of our top ‘buy lows’ of last week -- he was a late/midweek entry I proposed -- Hunter Henry (4-23-1/8). He ruined his ‘low’ part of the equation with a TD here. A few, not many, got him last week…and I think you’ll like it because things with Herbert are going to be good…and Henry chief among them.
In a world where the TE group is dying from star names collapsing and many one week wonders breaking your heart as you race in a week too late off their sweet game the week prior…Henry + Herbert works for me. You might have missed the window of good value to acquire in trade now. Wait a week and see if he doesn’t score a TD next week. With TEs, if you score a TD in a week…you’re a god among TE options now. There’s Kelce, Waller, and #3-12 TE1s for the week will be finding the ‘who will score a TD’ guy.
Jimmy Graham and Eric Ebron now are in play, somewhat coveted, sadly.
-- Speaking of things better with Herbert…Mike Williams (5-109-2/8) got active and just made himself a top waiver wire guy of the week in some leagues. Who thought he would even play this week?
I don’t know that this even happens if Keenan Allen (2-29-1/2) doesn’t get hurt. If Allen is down for just a week, I’m trying to buy low on Allen. If Allen is out long-term, then Mike Williams is going to work by attrition.
If Allen is fine…Williams is back in play, but I think at-risk of being a bit player with Herbert where Allen-Henry will shine more. I didn’t see the same relationship with Williams as I did Herbert-Allen. Williams got lost in coverage for the most wide-open TD (64 yards) of 2020…or this Williams stat line might have been very ‘meh’ with one TD and no hyper-enthusiasm. Now, because he got 100+ and 2 TDs on national TV…he’ll break the bank in waivers in many leagues this week.
I’m wary of Williams as being a B-C grade option (with Keenan healthy) that is now a temporary ‘A’ because ‘national TV/2 TDs’ just happened. Depending on Allen’s healthy/outlook…I might sell this Williams thing hot.
-- I sell immediately on Emmanuel Sanders (12-122-0/14). As soon as Michael Thomas is back, everything changes back. It’s like what will happen in Green Bay when Davante Adams returns.
Sell Sanders.
Drop Tre’Quan Smith (2-8-0/3) and never speak his name again. I think Smith and Marquez Valdes-Scantling are the same person, in the same boat. Useless but pop up every 4-5-6 games with a TD and people get excited. Have moments when the star WR is out but are nothing when the star WR is in…even in a ‘good’ matchup.
Rookie Marquez Callaway (4-43-0/6) could move past Tre’Quan soon…but will also not matter for any FF consistency.
-- I drafted Jared Cook (2-52-1/3) to be my Tyler Higbee insurance in case what is now happening (him getting ignored/not following up on 2019) happened. But Cook is showing troubling signs as well. Just 3 targets here and thank the Lord one of them was for a long TD.
Cook is as good/bad as any non-Kelce/Waller TE but he’s also showing some troubling target trending. May be OK once Thomas is back.
-- The Saints-DST has been terrible and led by Marshon Lattimore (6 tackles) suddenly getting beat by all comers/not the lock down guy of the past. It may be that Lattimore is more hurt than he is letting on.
Whatever it is…there’s also a very tough schedule so far at play as well. After their Week 6 BYE the schedule eases up a bit. The Saints may get healthy and a schedule break all at the same time for Week 7.
-- The Chargers-DST looked great for about a half here and then couldn’t hold off the Saints offense from coming back. The Chargers play about two quarters of great defense and then start falling apart. It’s a very good unit and when they get Chris Harris back, things might fall into place.
Week 6 = BYE
Week 7 = JAC
Week 8 = at DEN
Week 9 = LV
Week 10 = at MIA
Week 11 = NYJ
You could use the LAC-DST from Week 7-11 with some or great confidence.
-- LAC LB Kyzir White (15 total tackles, 1 TFL) is on total fire in IDP since becoming a starter Week 2…10.8 tackles, 0.4 TFLs, 0.2 PDs per game for White since becoming a starter. Potentially going to lead the league in tackles despite barely playing Week 1.
Snap Counts of Interest:
65 = Guyton
55 = MK Williams
35 = KJ Hill
12 = Keenan Allen
05 = Tyron Johnson
42 = JJax
25 = JKelley
59 = Tre’Quan
52 = Callaway
45 = Emm Sanders
42 = J Cook
28 = J Hill
20 = Taysom Hill
