R.C. Fischer

FFM

23 November 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 11: Chiefs 19, Cowboys 9

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*With the Thanksgiving week schedule complexities of the triple-header, etc., the game reports this week will be less pontificating and more ‘just the facts’ on players/situations we need to consider for Week 12 and beyond. I’ll be back to being a blowhard next week, I promise.

I had to laugh at the outcome of this game. All Sunday, on all the Fantasy and general football shows I heard bits and pieces of analysts crowing about how Vegas had this projected as the high scoring game of the week and how it would be so good for Fantasy and viewing. Well, it wasn’t the top scoring game of the week…it was the 3rd-lowest. Tim Boyle vs. wounded Baker in the cold and rain was slightly lower scoring than this one – that lets you know how bad this game was.

What happened? I’ll address it in the first player note below.

The Chiefs won to go to (7-4), and everything seems right with the football world now that the mainstream unanimous pick has won four in-a-row and is in 1st-place in the AFC West. They barely beat the Giants Week 8. They barely beat the horrible Jordan Love debut Week 9. They blew out LV Week 10. They looked terrible here in winning/surviving Dallas. Three of their last four, KC was not well.

This KC team is not fixed…it’s pretty mediocre still. Fortunately, the schedule is their friend ahead and they should finish with 11 wins and probably hold off the Chargers for the AFC title.

The Cowboys laid their second egg in the last three games…the Week 10 Falcons humiliation distracting us from their issues. It’s not that Dallas is bad, it’s several key injuries pushing the issue – Tyron Smith out the last three weeks is massive. Amari out here. Demarcus Lawrence and Randy Gregory have been out for weeks and will gone 3-4 more weeks. The Cowboys are now (7-3) but losing steam and losing players and allowing Philly and Washington to get back into the NFC East discussion suddenly. Dallas should win 10-11 games and hold off the Eagles for the NFC East, but if they lose to Vegas on Thanksgiving – then Dallas is in a lot of trouble.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- The reason both of these teams look so bad now and the scoring was so low here, is simple…they’re missing key O-Lineman and thus their ace, franchise QBs have less time in the pocket than ever before. QBs are propped up by great lines and QBs can also be brought low by them, when they’re poor…and that’s happening here.

When I was fast-forwarding a section of this game looking for a certain play to rewatch, I was essentially watching the condensed version of this game (no huddles/commercials, etc.), at warp speed, and something struck me during it and so I took a moment to watch the whole game on fast-forward to test my instincts…and my instincts were right, I think. Watching it high-speed, it was like a keystone cops event. Take away the announcers and watching the receivers or ballcarriers and just looking at the QBs in the pocket, rapidly, showed both QBs under constant pressure (mild or heavy) and sliding from trouble, or full-scale scrambling from trouble every other pass attempt. Rare did they ever take their drop back, plant their feet and fire cleanly.

Three outcomes happened over and over in this game on pass attempts…

1) QBs under duress, moving…shifting…scrambling constantly -- thus 0 TDs/3 INTs combined for two elite QBs. 8.0 sacks, 15 QB hits combined on the two QBs.

2) QBs either had some time or they scrambled into a throw to an open receiver who dropped it. I’m not playing this up…several key drops in this game could’ve brough Dallas into it or helped KC put it away.

3) Solid completed passes when the QB had a moment to breathe.

More of #1 and #2 happened than #3, above.

There’s nothing wrong with either QB. There’s everything wrong with their O-Lines right now, and their non #1 WRs.

CeeDee Lamb (3-14-0/4) is not a real #1 WR. With Amari out, and Dak trying to force things…Lamb never responds. He’s a great receiver when Amari-Gallup-Schultz are getting attention and Lamb breaks wide open. He’s a highly overrated WR as a technician receiver. But, like Jaylon Smith, we’ll be told how great he is for a couple more years, and Dallas will sign him to a massive contract extension when his time comes.

Lamb had no presence here and left halfway through with a concussion…and is likely out for Week 12, which may be doing Dak a favor.

Dak Prescott (28-43 for 216 yards, 0 TDs/2 INTs) needs Tyron Smith back more than CeeDee Lamb…and if he doesn’t get him back, then he’ll continue to be more QB2 not a QB1.

Patrick Mahomes (23-37 for 260 yards, 0 TDs/1 INT) either gets some OLs back healthy or they change their blocking scheme – or he’s going to be a back end QB1. If they do get this fixed…the #1 QB1 is his destination. He looks fine, he just has less time than ever and he’s forcing/hurrying things to really crappy WRs outside of Tyreek and Kelce.

With Mahomes, if you own him, all you can do is keep running him out there and hoping for the turn in the blocking or a weak pass rush team he faces. Mahomes is a ride or die, and we may die on it this season.

 -- Clyde Edwards-Helaire (12-63-1, 2-13-0/2) goes right from IR to main starter/toucher of the ball in the KC backfield. I had fears that Darrel Williams (5-15-0, 1-11-0/3) has shown enough to pull into a 50-50 hot hand situation, but I’m the fool.

The NFL sticks by their designated RB no matter what inconvenient truths hit them. Only injury forces coaches to change plans…but they’ll go right back to the original plan the second they can…like a dog to its own vomit.

 -- …that’s why no matter how ineffective Ezekiel Elliott (9-32-0, 6-36-0/6) gets at times (five straight games under 70 yards rushing), and no matter how effective Tony Pollard (7-50-0, 2-20-0/2) is…Zeke will always be the lead if they can hobble him out there, and Pollard serves as a relief back not a weapon back.

They could turn Pollard into a Deebo-like ‘weapon’ but they won’t. Hasn’t even crossed their minds.

 -- With Amari out, Michael Gallup (5-44-0/10) looked healthy and quick, but he does not have a great working connection with Dak, for whatever reason. This should’ve been a time for Gallup to rise up (Amari out, then Lamb out) but nope.

Dalton Schultz (6-53-0/8) has a much better relationship with Dak. He’s a PPR TE1…just a boring one. I like his PPR targeting, and he was scoring TDs early on to go-with…but that’s dried up with his passing game lately. Week 12 with no Lamb-Amari should be a good thing for Schultz?

Even if Tyron Smith is out Week 12, Vegas is the team that allowed KC to go off on them during the recent Chiefs offensive malaise. Schultz-Gallup could be in a good spot.

 -- We have to credit the KC-DST here for giving Dak fits, but with Tyron Smith Dallas made their job much easier. I mean, Chris Jones had 3.5 sacks in this game…he had 3.0 sacks total in his prior 8 games this season.

The Chiefs-DST has held four of their last 5 opponents to 17 points or less after allowing 29 or more in every one of the first five games of the season.

A bye Week 12, and then two solid home game matchups for the suddenly hot KC-DST Weeks 13-14…DEN and LV. Two of the weaker O-Lines in the NFL. We have Denver graded as the single worst pass blocking O-Line in the NFL this season.

 -- A recent KC defensive change the past two games…rookie ILB Nick Bolton (4 tackles, 1 TFL), who was racking up major tackle counts for a stretch, is now no longer starting and only playing 30% or so of the snaps in games. His lack of pass cover ability is hurting his cause. A downward turn for IDP output.

 -- Credit the Dallas-DST as well, for the KC/Mahomes issues. The Chiefs only scored 3 points in the 2nd-half as the defense tried to keep Dallas in it – just the offense couldn’t come through.

The fact that Dallas is being a menace on defense missing their best true pass rushers (Lawrence, Gregory) is a good sign for when they get those guys back, this might be a great DST play Weeks 15-16 (the projected returns of those two players) at NYG and hosting Washington.

Micah Parsons (4 tackles, 2.0 sacks, 3 QB hits) has all but wrapped up the DPOY award, as Chris at Bet The Close podcast was predicting as one of his major bet for him in the preseason. Hope some of you were able to legally cash in on that guidance.

You might could use the Dallas-DST for the next five weeks, if you had to. The five QBs they are facing ahead: Carr-Siemian-Heinicke-DanJones-Heinicke.

Snap Counts of Interest:

55 = Tyreek

40 = Pringle

29 = Gordon

28 = DeM Robinson

12 = Hardman

36 = D Williams

32 = CEH

63 = Gallup

42 = Noah Brown

42 = C Wilson

36 = Lamb

46 = Zeke

22 = Pollard

R.C. Fischer

Total Football Advisor

22 November 2021

A look back at the Chargers 2021 season via RC's weekly game recaps/analysis with 2022 notes/comments added to this review...

Ross Jacobs

FFM

20 November 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 10: 49'ers 31, Rams 10 

This is one of those games where the underdog very clearly outplayed the favorite, but at the end of it all you still have the feeling that most weeks it probably would have gone differently. The 49'ers jumped out to a nice lead early in the game after a Stafford pass went right through the hands of Higbee and Jimmie Ward found a nice gift waiting right in his arms that he then took back for an easy score. 14-0 SF in a flash and the Rams could never close the gap enough after that.

SF scored 24 offensive points here, a good total, but not as impressive as 31 on the Rams sounds like. The real story was how well their defense played, and I'll get to that, but just note that they were aided by a lot of drops by the Rams, some timely penalties, and a healthy dose of good luck. I don't think this is suddenly a top 10 defense.

The thing that was impressive about the SF defense was how physical they played. They really punched the Rams in the mouth over and over and just physically dominated them. It's the same issue I talked about with the Rams last week. They are a soft team. They want to play finesse ball and let Stafford throw from the comfort of a clean pocket to receivers running wide open in the secondary. If you take away their space by crowding Stafford and getting physical with the receivers then you can get these types of games out of them where things are just a little off.

Credit to the 49'ers. They are a physical football team, and now that everyone on offense is healthy (for the moment) they are playing some solid football. This healthy version of the team is actually pretty good, a .500 ish squad or maybe a little better. They are 4-5 after this win and have a rather easy schedule the rest of the year. They should win at least 4 of their last 8 games and possibly 5, 6, or 7 if they stay healthy and start rolling. 5 or 6 sounds about right though. That would get them to 9 or 10 wins and a possible late wild card spot for the playoffs. Add all of this up and unless Garoppolo gets hurt, we aren't seeing Trey Lance this year.

On the Rams very first drive of the game I think we saw the seeds of a coming problem.

The first pass Stafford threw was to OBJ, a nice timing out route, no big deal. However, a couple of plays later Stafford held the ball for an eternity because nobody was open and then heaved a wild pass to the middle of the field into double coverage after OBJ just stopped running.

Normally, I make fun of Troy Aikman every week, but even he can see the issue here. The Rams just brought a cancer into their locker room, a selfish, overrated cancer. You don't think he is a cancer? Check out this article about how OBJ was hung up on signing with the Rams because of a jersey number. Yes, he really is this ridiculous.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/11/14/number-issues-reportedly-slowed-deal-for-obj-to-rams/

Because of media pressure and this idea that OBJ is still some megastar receiver despite multiple years of production showing he definitely is not, Stafford and the Rams are now being pressured to target OBJ far too often.

OBJ was only on the field a handful of snaps in this game because it's going to take some time for him to learn the playbook, getting comfortable, etc, but what happened during those few plays is foreshadowing very clearly where this thing is headed and it's not a good place for the Rams. I'm not saying they are suddenly a bad team because of OBJ. What I am saying is this addition isn't going to take them to another level and will very likely drag them down a notch, not a ton, but enough that they aren't winning this division over the Cardinals.

Other than that I thought the Rams played ok, not as bad as the score said. They tried a fake FG that failed miserably early in the game and just looked out of sorts all night. It's actually very similar to the slump we just saw the Chiefs go through, a lot of it was just penalties, drops, bad play, but also just getting out muscled by good defenses. I think they'll bounce back a little. The schedule ahead is pretty rocky though, not a lot of soft teams to beat on, so things could get rough down the stretch. This team is talented though and can beat anyone on any given day. I bet they end up somewhere around 10 wins and snag the 5th or 6th seed in the NFC.

Fantasy Notes

--Let's start with Elijah Mitchell (27-91-0) because he's key to a lot of FFM teams right now. This game highlights the problem I've had with Mitchell all along. I know he's the bell cow. I know he's going to get decent yardage. I also know he's not getting any catches and not a lot of TD's. I've seen this too many times with Shanahan's RB's in recent years. It's great for the team but not so great for fantasy.

And now Mitchell is hurt again because of course he is. It's been mostly fluke injuries for him so far, but this already has the feel of another Raheem Mostert. “But he's soooo good when he's on the field.” Yeah, well you have to be available or it doesn't matter. Just ask CMC owners.

To me, Mitchell is a redraft only play. I want no part of this mess for dynasty. He's already had too many injuries on a team known for injuries, Shanahan is notoriously fickle with his RB's as we've seen a million times (most recently by completely burying Trey Sermon), and next year Lance is going to siphon off even more rushing TD's. RC might disagree, but I'd hold Mitchell for now, use him this year, let his value rise and sell him off when he's being seen as a future RB1.

--On the live watch I had the impression that Jeff Wilson (10-28-0) was more involved than he actually was. He took 3 carries on the opening drive, but it really tailed off from there. Most series he would come in to spell Mitchell about every 3rd or 4th carry. Decent numbers but it's still very much Mitchell's backfield when healthy. With Mitchell out this week though Wilson becomes an interesting play against the Jaguars. I think a lot of people might be in for a surprise though as the once vulnerable Jags run defense has suddenly become a lot more stout in recent weeks. This might not be as juicy as it would have been a month ago.

--One of the worst calls RC and I have made this year might be to sell high on Deebo Samuel (5-97-1/5, 5-36-1). I don't know how he keeps doing it, but it seems like every week he gets some fluky long TD where three guys miss tackles on him. I guess you keep riding it, but I'm still nervous about this going forward. Kittle and Aiyuk are healthy again and this isn't a high volume passing game. I'm afraid Deebo is about to go from the 2nd best fantasy WR to more of a back end WR1 or WR1.5. Of course we've been saying that for weeks and he keeps on proving us wrong so I wouldn't blame you for ignoring us on this one.

One thing that could help keep his fantasy numbers up high is if he keeps getting the number of carries he got here. 5 carries for a WR! Why multiple teams don't do this every game I'll never understand. It's a nice wrinkle for the defense to have to worry about. Of course, Deebo didn't have a single carry in his three previous games, so I wouldn't run off a cliff assuming this is the new norm. Let's see what they do with it next week.

--George Kittle (5-50-1/7) has been excellent since returning from injury. He looks like his old self and is finally scoring TD's again after a long drought. Only injury can stop him from being a top 5 TE the rest of the year.

--This game also showed the problem with Brandon Aiyuk (3-26-0/4) and why you can't get too excited about him (and could/should be nervous about Deebo). There's just not enough stats to feed everyone. Someone will get left out most weeks and Aiyuk is the 3rd option so it's usually going to be him.

--Don't worry too much about Matt Stafford (26-41 for 243, 1 TD/2 INT). One of the INT's here was just a complete fluke. The schedule is a bit of a concern, but I think they can fight through it enough for Stafford to remain a high end QB1. The biggest concern though is OBJ and how often they try to go to him. If this does get out of control then Stafford will burn with him, but if they can just rotate OBJ in a little and keep running the offense through Kupp and Henderson then they will be fine.

--Speaking of Darrell Henderson (5-31-0, 4-10-0/6) don't worry about him. The Rams won't be down this much most games. They were forced to completely abandon the run here. Just game flow. I like him to continue as an RB1 although more in the 6-12 range than top 5.

--Van Jefferson (3-54-0/7) I'm not sure about yet. He got 7 targets here as the #2 WR behind Kupp, but how long that lasts I'm not sure. I want to say he'll stay in the Robert Woods role because he's the better option, but we all know how these things usually go. OBJ wasn't brought in to play nice behind Jefferson. Hold Jefferson for now if you have him, but I honestly don't believe his situation has changed much at all. He'll be intermittently useful but not consistent.

IDP Notes

--Rookie safety Talanoa Hufanga (3 tackles, 1 pd) has been flashing since the preseason. He's a guy I've had my eye on as he was very impressive early in the year, and it was obvious he would be starting very soon. He's been the full time starter the last 3 weeks, and while it's not showing up in the stats yet (mostly because Warner and Al-Shaair are incredible tacklers), his presence has not gone unnoticed. It was his physical player here blasting some receivers that really helped set the tone for the SF defense. Not IDP useful yet, but he will be at some point in the near future.

Snap Counts of Interest

55 = Cooper Kupp

52 = Van Jefferson

42 = Ben Skowronek

15 = Odell Beckham

41 = Darrell Henderson

14 = Sony Michel

61 = Brandon Aiyuk

49 = Deebo Samuel

36 = Elijah Mitchell

22 = Jeff Wilson

R.C. Fischer

FFM

20 November 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 10: Lions 16, Steelers 16

I think this was the first time this year that I got so disgusted watching a game tape back, that I just shut it off well ahead of the ending and didn’t finish watching it. I mean, this was beyond the pale for an NFL game.

I would be scared to be a Steelers fan from here on in (and should've been for the past few years). Pittsburgh looking like hot garbage isn’t new in 2021, nor am I shocked they looked dreadful in this game…but man this team/franchise is swirling down the drain – poor QB play no matter who’s at QB, a terrible O-Line, Najee Harris is overrated (a lot due to the O-Line; Najee doesn’t make things happen on his own). In the rain with Mason Rudolph this was an affront to quality football.

But what I’m really ‘over’ is the Detroit Lions and Dan Campbell and friends. Love his story…love his passion…would love for him to win a game someday but what I saw in this game, I’m done caring about him. If he is this stupid, then no amount of kneecaps consumed will save him or the franchise.

There were two moments in here that made me sick, the 2nd of the two is the most egregious thing in football in 2021, quite possibly. Surrounding these two events was some of the worst football, especially on offense, you will ever see.

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The two moments where I’m ‘done’ with this Lions regime…

1) Right before halftime, Lions down 10-7, 0:20 left 'til half, 3rd & goal from the 8-yard line, with a timeout in their pocket…they ran the ball, which is fine I guess…but they got to the 3-yard line and had 0:13 seconds left as the play was whistled dead. Instead of calling a time out to set up a play to go for the TD…or instead of hurrying up to try and catch Pittsburgh napping and go for a score, the Lions let the clock run down to call timeout to set up the chip shot field goal.

You’re a winless team that is worse than every team you play every week/going into the game you’re expected to lose – so, why are you playing a battle of field goals before halftime so close to the end zone? Why not go bite a kneecap and go for the 3-yards and a TD? What do you have to lose because you’re probably going to lose the game anyway? Who cares if you don’t convert on a ‘go for it’ move?

I get the mindset of you’re playing an equally bad team with a backup QB in the rain, so maybe you play a chess match with playoff implications on the line…but points are so rare for the Lions, and you’re that close to paydirt in a terrible season – show some guts. If you don’t think you can score from 3-yards away right before the half…do you think you’re going to win the 2nd-half of the game anyway?

2) Teams settling for cheap field goals happens so much, I can only get so mad…but I’d be furious at this if I were a current Lions fan. If they aren’t going to try to win…why watch or support the product?

But then if you thought the scaredy-cat field goal before half was bad, the following should get Anthony Lynn and Dan Campbell fired…today. Today.

So, it’s 10-10 thanks to the crucial field goal by the Lions before the half. Out they come for the 3rd-quarter. The Lions set out on their first drive of the 2nd-half.

Going back in time…the first TD of this game, for the Lions, came on a Jermar Jefferson 21-yard TD run…a run where he got his leg/ankle rolled up on as he crashed into the end zone, and he couldn’t return to the game. Tough break. Jamaal Williams was already out, so now Detroit is down to D’Andre Swift…and…and Safety-turned-2021-RB Godwin Igwebuike as their RBs remaining alive.

So, in this first drive of the 2nd-half, in a few plays in, they insert Igwebuike in for an actual carry…he pops through the middle for a nice 14-yard gain. Wow! Like to see it. I’m a fan of his from the preseason. I’m not shocked he's competent. 1st-down. The Lions are into Steelers territory at their 42. Nice. Let’s Gooo!!

Then the very next play…this happens: https://youtu.be/c-cJHmd06R8

Probably the longest TD run by a Lion since Barry Sanders existed. Back-to-back runs for Igwebuike of 14 and 42 yards…for an offense that absolutely sucks. Wow! What a breath of fresh air!! What a jolt of offense from this backup RB/main kick returner. The Lions take an actual lead (16-10) with 12:09 left in the 3rd-quarter. There’s some real hope now. You go Lions!!

Did I mention this TD run happened with 12:09 left in the 3rd-quarter? Did you see the play/click that link? Did you see that he broke 2-3 tackles and made nice moves for a real NFL score? You got that, right?

Enjoy this math:

12:09 left in the 3rd-quarter

PLUS

15:00 minutes of shit/no points by the Lions in the 4th-quarter.

PLUS

15:00 more minutes of bonus shit/no points by the Lions in overtime.

EQUALS

42 minutes and 9 seconds. There were 42 more minutes of game play after Igwebuike made that TD run.

Do you know how many more rushing attempts Igwebuike had in those 42+ minutes after that stellar TD run?

Zero

Oh, well maybe he was hurt? No, he was returning kicks like normal the rest of the game.

A complete and utter train wreck of an offense has a guy come in off the bench and light the field up on two successive runs…and in the subsequent 42+ minutes of play, and not a point scored within that by Detroit, the coaching staff doesn’t think to give Igwebuike another touch to see if maybe there's more lightning left in that bottle.

Dan Campbell can ‘Let’s Go Brandon’ himself and take Anthony Lynn with him. If you’re a Lions fan from here on in – it’s your own fault. You support this utter garbage.

I’m spitting mad at this because this is a guy’s/player’s (Igwebuike’s) career they’re messing with. Who knows what Igwebuike would’ve done with the next few touches? Perhaps a star would have been born? Instead we get your absolute dereliction of duty…your coaching malfeasance…your mental deficiencies resulting in no one on the staff thinking to get this guy another touch in this game after he did what he just did. Why are there even coaches for the Lions...what purpose do they serve, if they can't think of seeing that TD run but then never having an urge to try it again (and again)?

It’s criminal. It’s criminal for the player…it’s criminal for the team busting their asses to win a game, and to stop being winless...to stop being humiliated to even be a part of this franchise. It’s criminal for the fans who spent money and came out to the stadium to support the team.

Don’t anyone ever tell me…”They’re professional coaches, they know what they’re doing more than you (RC)…they see these guys in practice all the time.” I’ve been doing this for 10+ years, and the biggest take away of my time studying the NFL is its head coaches are the worst at the their job among all us humans. Low IQ con men. And the Ivy league ones just have no common sense...and none of them with any real world experience because they have lived inside a football bubble most of their lives.

Forgive me when I don’t care next month when all the media rumors start about what head coaching candidates are going to fill the likely-to-be-fired coaching spots…as we get to listen to all the ‘culture change’ horseshit and all the wonderful ‘systems’ they are going to bring to their new place of employ. They’re all complete idiots…start from there, and then make them prove otherwise.

I will continue to say, Bill Belichick is the smartest man in a room full of 31 morons every season, so we shouldn’t be shocked when he keeps winning division titles and Super Bowls in a logic-defying way. It’s not endorsing Belichick as a genius…but he is a genius compared to his annual competition.

Other than that, I have no thoughts on this game.

Both of these teams suck and are coached by typical moronic meat head football guys.

The best summary of this game here: https://youtu.be/05IyBB56rkk

I can’t follow that.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Lions Fantasy notes…?

What does it matter?

You know they stink, and everything goes to D’Andre Swift (33-130-0, 3-5-0/6).

T.J. Hockenson? How about FIVE QUARTERS of play and no catches with 1 target. Enjoy that ‘next Gronk’.

The only note of interest here is I bet Jared Goff doesn’t play this week and Tim Boyle gets the start (late note: now confirmed he is). Boyle isn’t totally terrible but gets thrown into this offensive blackhole, I’m sure it will be a mess. Boyle is like a version of Mike White…experienced, decent arm, and if he just takes what they give him…maybe something good will happen? Did you see Mike White or Trevor Siemian coming? Let’s see which way Boyle breaks.

But he has these awful surroundings and nightmare coaches, so…good luck.

Boyles has to be better than Mason Rudolph (30-50 for 242 yards, 1 TD/1 INT), who could barely complete a forward pass in this game. Most of his work was short timing nonsense. If he starts again, bet it all on the Chargers this week.

 -- Jamaal Williams will likely be back Week 11, so don’t even raise an FF-eyebrow at what you saw with Godwin Igwebuike (2-56-1). On field results get you nothing. Draft stock and contract status matter to braindead kneecap consuming head coaches.

 -- I’m still for trading away Diontae Johnson (7-83-0/13) as a PPR WR1-1.5…or I’ll just keep/hold/pray. I’m convinced Big Ben is losing what’s left of his fastball weekly, and his new easy throw is Pat Freiermuth (5-31-0/9)…his locker mate buddy.

Diontae will still see double digit targets but put in context that his catch rate is falling towards 50% because the Steelers QBs can’t throw a real NFL pass to him downfield. So, you can expect a lot of eye catching 12 targets games, but they’ll probably result in 5-6 catches, 50 yards, and no TD games ahead.

 -- Chase Claypool is back for Week 11, so there is nothing with Ray-Ray McCloud (9-63-0/12) to see here.

 -- The Steelers go into Week 11 without T.J. Watt, Joe Haden, and likely Minkah Fitzpatrick…so this DST is in HUGE trouble against LAC. Hopefully Herbert-Williams can get back in business together because of it.

Snap Counts of Interest:

66 = Swift

04 = Igwebuike

03 = Jermar Jefferson

48 = Trinity Benson

47 = K Raymond

43 = St. Brown

04 = K Hodge

R.C. Fischer

FFM

19 November 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 10: Eagles 30, Broncos 13

Week 9, the Denver Broncos played their best game of the 2021 season…maybe their best game in years, and throttled the Dallas Cowboys, which left us all shocked and stunned…even Broncos fans. Did they follow that impressive win up Week 10? Nope, they got slapped around by the very mediocre Eagles.

Don’t you love the NFL? You literally do not know what game result is coming any game, any week. If Joe Flacco led the Jets to the Super Bowl from here, it shouldn’t shock any of us. What a great episodic television drama, a great mystery novel the NFL season chapter by chapter. And playing Fantasy Football within it is just as much of a thrill ride. That’s the takeaway from this DEN-PHI game, apparently…Fantasy Football is fun.

Let’s get back on task… The game summary here? Two weak passing offenses with decent defenses tried to out-run the ball against each other, and the one with the better O-Line and sweet running QB walked away with it.

The Eagles jumped out 10-0 in the 1st-quarter. Denver tied it 10-10 midway 2nd-quarter…and then the Eagles just beat the Broncos from there. If they played this game a thousand times it would likely result in a 500-500 win-loss record. It was Philly’s day here…Jalen Hurts is the X factor, the difference. The Eagles converted on 6-of-13 (46%) of their 3rd-down attempts…Denver was 1-of-11 (9%) and 0-for-2 on 4th-downs. It wasn’t Denver’s day.

Philadelphia is now (4-6) and thinking about the playoffs, and before you think that is far-fetched…the Eagles play the Saints this week. After that game, they have three New York games (2 NYG, 1 NYJ) and two Washington games. If the Eagles defeat the Saints this week, a big IF, they would have 5 wins on the season -- with five winnable games ahead.

I don’t think the Eagles are good enough to roll through those five nice matchups with all wins, because they aren’t better than the Giants…and they are comparable to Washington. We project the Eagles lose this week, then go on to finish with 7 wins and no playoffs. If they do beat the Saints Week 11 -- Philly fans are going to get lit with playoff dreams. Lose to the Saints, and they’ll be calling for Hurts to be replaced by Minshew .

Denver falls to (5-5)…if they had beaten Philly, which they needed to at home, they would have had 6 wins now and would have had a real shot at the playoffs. Instead, they botch this game and go to (5-5). They will be hard-pressed to get to 9 wins and thus have a shot at the playoffs . 7 wins likely, 8 wins tops. Aaron Rodgers sweepstakes after that…

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- I’ve said/written it a couple times this week…

Will the Eagles realize that their best run game efforts in years have been the recent run here with the tandem of Jordan Howard (12-83-0) and Boston Scott (11-81-0, 2-24-0/2) the past few games? The Eagles went full scale Baltimore Ravens with designed runs by Jalen Hurts (13-55-0) in a read-option tank that just rolled over the Broncos defense – 39 rushes for 216 yards for the Eagles here with Hurts-Howard-Scott equally splitting touches.

Miles Sanders might be back Week 11, but definitely by Week 12. Will the Eagles go back to the thing/guy that hasn’t been working for years, and putting what has been working on ice?

Absolutely they will. No question about it. I hope it isn’t true, but my NFL experience says it definitely will be. Three years of excuses for Sanders by the team, the media, the fans…and Howard-Scott just walks in and steamrolls opponents…the Eagles are (2-1) without Sanders this season, and really could’ve been (3-0). They will absolutely throw that all away to prove to you that Miles Sanders was a smart draft pick.

Best case (for Philly), Sanders enters a three-headed split with Howard-Scott…make it four with Hurts. Likely/worst case (for Philly), Sanders is the main back with Howard taking 5 +/- carries and Scott as a low touch/snaps 3rd-down back. Kenneth Gainwell (2-5-0, 1-9-0/1) lost his Eagles career here. He’ll be an occasional passing game back and special teams…but you can’t rule out that Nick Sirianni goes back to exactly what was failing (Sanders-Gainwell) and bench Howard-Scott.

 -- Have I ever mentioned Javonte Williams (8-48-0, 2-1-0/3) is going to be the best running back in the NFL in the years to come? He is THEE guy to target in Dynasty if you’re planning/prepping for 2022 already.

He had a sweet TD run here, but it got called back for nonsense.

The Gordon-Javonte split is the foreshadow of how stupid NFL head coaches are…and thus why Miles Sanders will walk in with all his career failures and supplant the best thing Philly has going (Howard-Scott) as soon as he is able, the head coach and GM pushing for it.

If I’m Vic Fangio, I’m like…screw the keeping them fresh/balanced approach, my job is about to get terminated, let me go all-in on Javonte and see if he can change the narrative. Fangio absolutely will NOT do that willingly. Only injury to MG3 can save Fangio’s 2021, and there’s not much time left for it.

 -- I mentioned how awful the Eagles are defending the TE going into this game week, and thus we named Noah Fant (5-59-0/6) as the upside TE of the week. It didn’t work out that way, but the theory was right…because Albert Okwuegbunam (3-77-0/3) had some big plays, and the two of them combined for 8 catches, 136 yards, on 9 targets. Okwuegbunam is getting close to equal footing with Fant in this offense…not good for Fant production.

Adam Trautman has the Philly D Week 11, but Juwan Johnson could be the ticket for a TD.

Evan Engram Week 12, but Kyle Rudolph may be the ticket for a TD.

Keep an eye out for WSH playing this PHI TE defense Weeks 15 and 17…we have to see if that’s Logan Thomas, Ricky Seals-Jones…or John Bates.

 -- What’s happening with Courtland Sutton (2-29-0/3)?

He’s great. Teddy is mediocre. It’s a low volume situation where Denver wants to run the ball. Sutton gets primary coverage. The Broncos have their heads up Jerry Jeudy’s (6-48-0/9) ass because he’s ‘their guy’ (this current staff drafted him).

It’s like with Terry McLaurin…and why I’ve had McL and Sutton on ‘sell high’ lists – low volume passing games that want to run heavy and they have to work with mediocre/non-runner QBs, so it’s a hard thing for a #1 WR to sustain/find consistency. I have Deebo Samuel in that same boat, but he keeps defying all logic and making a huge play every week (thank God for that for those who didn’t/couldn’t sell).

All you can do with Sutton, McLaurin, etc., is start them in any decent matchup and pray something happens. Sutton is excellent, the situation is not (for him). It’s definitely not a talent thing.

I dream of Rodgers-to-Sutton in 2022…

 -- DeVonta Smith (4-66-2/6) has similar issues as the WRs mentioned above. He’s the clear #1 WR for Philly, but it’s a low volume/low output passing game and defenses can key on. Smith got lucky in this game with a couple catches…he was blanketed a lot but made a catch (his first TD) or two almost beyond probability.

Smith is good…his situation is not so good for FF. I don’t see ‘great’ yet with Smith.

 -- Jerry Jeudy (6-48-0/9) in his 4 games back from injury…

5.5 rec. (7.0 targets), 57.0 yards, 0.0 TDs…WR3 type PPR work.

I give him credit; he’s catching the ball better this year…78.6% catch rate 2021 vs. 46.0% last year.

 -- Dallas Goedert (2-28-0/2) feels like he’s on the verge of starting to push into the top 5 TEs in scoring. Since Ertz has gone he's been playing a ton of snaps and he looks like the best connection with Hurts not DeVonta). He had 2 catches for 28 yards here in the 1st-Q, but then got blasted to the head and concussed and out of the game.

Don’t give up on him, I’m seeing signs that he’s about to hit an accelerator to more consistent FF scoring. He’s moving around really well (one of the most graceful TEs in the NFL)…he’s getting open for Hurts, and improvising routes when Hurts scrambles away.

Goedert just signed a 4-year extension, so Tyree Jackson is very much in trouble of being buried for years.

 -- That Eagles schedule ahead that’s so promising…it’s quite promising for their very decent DST.

Here’s the QBs they could be facing the rest of the way…

Week 11 = Siemian

Week 12 = Dan Dimes

Week 13 = Flacco/ZWilson?

Week 14 = bye

Week 15 = Heinicke

Week 16 = Dan Dimes

Week 17 = Heinicke

All games outdoors, northeast affairs.

Snap Counts of Interest:

44 = Fant

24 = Albert O

33 = Javonte

25 = Gordon

42 = Jack Stoll

27 = Tyree Jackson

13 = Goedert

24 = JoHo

20 = Scott

20 = Gainwell

R.C. Fischer

FFM

19 November 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 10: Vikings 27, Chargers 20

I walk away from this game with a BAD-BAD-BAD feeling about the Chargers. I got some bad vibes about the Chargers off this game, and it’s been building off their last few games.

Brandon Staley is not going to be the Coach of the Year, that’s for sure. The offense flashed early and has been figured out as they’ve gone on…it’s the only explanation I can give for the fact that Justin Herbert is looking worse than I’ve ever seen him – and he worked in an Anthony Lynn offense last year and was better in that mess than he is now. You have to do quite the coaching job to make Herbert look human. Protection is an issue (but it was worse last year), but more so it’s things like -- Jared Cook does nothing for this offense and when they hand it to Tugboat Larry Rountree…it’s like a wasted down. A bad offensive plan and the players are not moving with any real spark/juice…they look bored with the offense. It could change against a wounded Steelers defense this week…I hope it does, but I’m getting nervous. More on the players in the next section. The good news is – it’s a tweak, or change away…they have talent to work with…and it was just a couple weeks ago they were rolling hot.

The Chargers had several chances to win this game…chances to extend their lead midgame, but they just played comatose and let the Vikings be the ones with the spark…and when the Vikings took a two-score (27-17) lead with 9:29 remaining…the Chargers couldn’t find offense to answer back against an injured, not-great Vikings defense. Embarrassing.

Minnesota earned the win to crawl back to (4-5)/near .500. I can’t figure this team out – I thought they were a top 10 NFL team weeks ago, but then they went on a bye and lost two games in a row and looked to be on life support coming into this one as an underdog…but got a BIG win here. They miss Patrick Peterson and Harrison Smith, who should both be back for the GB game this week. We project the Vikings to 10 wins and a wild card…a nice schedule, mostly, ahead. If they can go beat Green Bay twice, they have NFC North title hopes.

The Chargers fall to (5-4) and are in danger of being the last place team in the AFC West if they’re not careful. We still project them to 10 wins and a wild card, but they could scrape to just 9 wins and be in danger of missing out…but they could also get their S--- together and get to 12+ wins and take the AFC West.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- I do not like what I see of Mike Williams (4-33-0/6) right now. It’s been growing…I’ve been hoping a turn was coming…but this is getting to be too much of a reality on tape – that Justin Herbert (20-34 for 195 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) just isn’t looking for Williams anymore, not like he used to.

And I mean that – his head/eyes are not in that direction. Williams will be open on the same side of the field as Keenan sometimes, and the tight window throw goes to Allen. Herbert is everything to Keenan Allen (8-98-0/11) like normal, but he’s lost his love for Big Mike. Look at these splits…

6.2 rec. (10.2 targets), 94.2 yards, 1.2 TDs per game = Williams Weeks 1-5

2.5 rec. (5.3 targets), 34.3 yards, 0.0 TDs per game = Williams Weeks 6-10

It’s one of the greatest drop-offs I’ve ever seen in my NFL study time of QB-WR relationships.

6.8 rec. (10.6 targets), 73.8 yards, 0.20 TDs per game = Keenan Weeks 1-5

7.8 rec. (10.0 targets), 82.3 yards, 0.25 TDs per game = Keenan Weeks 6-10

Keenan is keeping his numbers/targets up, but Mike’s have fallen off a cliff…and they aren’t going anywhere else…the drop-off coincides with a general drop-off for Herbert, for the most part.

Jared Cook (1-10-0/3) is doing Herbert no favors either. I think a switch to Donald Parham (1-17-0/2) as playing more snaps at TE is coming on…if LAC had half a brain, they’d ditch Cook and go all Parham in the passing game…and then Parham would be a TE1 in non-PPR, and possibly for PPR.

Jalen Guyton (0-0-0/1) is an absolute waste of space as the #3 WR, and I think the Chargers coaches are starting to figure that out and the Josh Palmer (3-22-0/4) era is about to start…him as a #3 WR. This would help the offense for sure.

It’s possible, LAC changes things up having lost two of their last 3 and struggling on offense. If we see a push for Parham and Palmer, and a recommitment to Mike Williams…they can juice this offense back to it’s early season days.

They have to do something, because more of the same is getting them nowhere. The good news is there’s a way out. The question is – is Brandon Staley smart enough to figure it out. So far, I’m not impressed with Staley’s choices and (non)adjustments on offense…but maybe he’s about to make the change.

 -- Am I worried about the possible/pending legal ramifications for Dalvin Cook (24-94-1, 3-24-0/5) and his domestic abuse case?

Not likely to worry in redraft 2021. There’s probably not enough time for the NFL to conduct a thorough investigation. So, unless video tape surfaces, etc., Cook is likely clear for the rest of 2021.

In 2022, who knows? In Dynasty, you want to be sure to have Alexander Mattison at almost all costs ‘just in case’.

 -- MIN rookie RB Kene Nwangwu is an offensive threat waiting to happen…as a 2-5 touch a game guy, but he got no touches here. They ran another fake punt for him here but just as it got direct-snapped to him, the refs blew the whistle for some nonsense play stoppage and the play/surprise was ruined…then they punted away after that.

I don’t know when the Vikings coaches will not be morons and let Nwangwu see some touches as a homerun hitter, but it shouldn’t be too far off. Likely nothing here for redraft 2021 even if Cook goes down – it’s just something to monitor, because if he ever gets a chance, I will be beside myself/unbearable to listen to/read when it happens…my excitement will be bananas.  

I can hardly think of a comp for what Kene could be. Our CFM scouting models tried to profile him but couldn’t find a great fit. Ty Johnson was the top profile. Young Tevin Coleman was an effort. But none of those really fit as a comp, to my eyes. He’s got real high-end speed but at a size to go-with like I’ve hardly seen (he has the speed of 170-180 pound blazers, but he’s 210 solid pounds)…and never really been given a chance in college.

 -- The Chargers have been horrible against the run all season…the #32 run defense by yards allowed in 2021. But they had their best game in weeks against Dalvin/the Vikings here, holding MIN to 103 yards on the ground…a big accomplishment for the LAC run D. Getting Kenneth Murray (4 tackles, 1 TFL) is helping improve things. There’s a good chance they hold the Steelers under 100 yards rushing this week…given the Steelers O-Line.

Snap Counts of Interest:

56 = Mike Williams

55 = Keenan

18 = Palmer

18 = Guyton 

34 = J Cook

27 = Parham

19 = McKitty

07 = Stv Anderson

Ross Jacobs

FFM

18 November 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 10: Bills 45, Jets 17 

This game was actually surprisingly close in the first half. You wouldn't know it by the score, but the Jets were competitive, just overmatched. The score was only 17-3 at halftime, but after that the Bills flipped a switch and just dominated New York the rest of the way.

Despite the blowout nature of the game, I have several takeaways from what I saw here.

First, Josh Allen is my vote for MVP. While watching this game I couldn' stop myself from texting RC over and over. “That was a great throw by Allen,” “Wow, what a great throw!” “This is unreal, he's making insane throw after insane throw.” The entire game was that way, and it should be seen as a compliment to the Jets defense as well because if the QB play had been even a step lower it might have been a competitive game. That's how good Allen was playing. He took a scrappy, tough defense and reduced them to complete frustration because no matter how tightly they covered his receivers, Allen was just laying the ball in the absolute perfect spot every throw.

This was the most impressive QB play I've seen in years, possibly ever. In my opinion, Allen should now be considered the single best QB in the NFL, just a tick ahead of Mahomes because while both are good runners, Allen adds the dimension of being able to run with power. Regardless, there's no arguing that Allen doesn't belong or that he's going to regress to his pre-2020 form. The man is a force at QB.

On the other side of the field, Mike White was sacrificed to the wolves to prop up #2 overall pick Zach Wilson...and White was not the disaster everyone is saying he was. I could give a damn about the 4 INT's. Only one of them was a truly dumb decision and a second one he didn't think a safety could make a play on the ball. But despite the INT's, White never looked gunshy, he never stopped firing, attacking the middle of a ferocious Bills defense while completely outclassed at every position. If anything, this game showed me that White is completely for real.

Remember earlier in the year when I defended Davis Mills after his poor outing against the Bills and how he looked quite competent against lesser competition after that? Well White just did the same thing except he was much, much better than Mills. Where Mills just looked fine, not over his head, White was trying to go after the Bills, not intimidated at all.

There was no chance he was going to succeed against the NFL's best defense and Jets management knew that. This was an intentional decision to make him look bad so they could safely install Wilson as the starter against the Texans in two weeks. That's also why Flacco is going to start against the Dolphins, because that defense is suddenly feisty and might crush Wilson.

Don't get me wrong, I like Wilson as much as anyone and still think highly of his prospects. It's unfair to try and write him off after one bad season. I've actually seen a lot of flashes from him despite the terrible circumstances. But this isn't about Wilson, it's about White and how he's earned a shot at this job, draft position be damned.

Interesting note, White will be a free agent in 2022, albeit a restricted free agent. So it's debatable what could happen with him. The Jets can choose to match any offer, but what if someone decides to pay up for a chance at White? He could be on the move. I highly doubt that happens though, not in today's QB economy. There are simply too many good ones to justify paying an obscene amount to a guy you're unsure of. They might be forced to let him go/trade him in the off-season just to protect Wilson again. Think about how Minshew was sent off for a 6th round pick to protect Lawrence. I'll be monitoring White this next free agent period. I'm a big fan now.

Fantasy Notes

--The Buffalo RB splits were very strange here. Devin Singletary (7-43-1) was the first guy in the game as usual, but then Matt Breida (3-28-1, 3-22-1/3) was shockingly inserted before Zach Moss (7-27-1) and scored a receiving TD out of the backfield.

After that, Moss became the go-to guy for a large chunk of a series, and I began to think Breida had gotten hurt. But no, Breida came back in at the end of a drive and rushed for a nice TD. Singletary would then come back in for a bit, and things wrapped up with Moss rounding out the day with a TD of his own to match the other two. Moss was also in on most 3rd downs as a pass blocker.

So is there any rhyme or reason to the pattern? Can you suddenly trust Breida? Is Moss losing his job? Hell if I know. I think this group just got even more disjointed than it already was now that Breida is healthy. Looks like we're going to see the same split between all these guys but now with Breida taking a few more reps. Smart for the NFL. Sucks for fantasy. I would avoid all of them to save yourself the headache.

--Where has this Stefon Diggs (8-162-1/13) been all year? This was the first time I've seen Allen forcing the ball to him all year, and my only theory is that it was because the Jets coverage was so tight on everyone else. Literally nothing was open, not even with Diggs, but Allen was making some insane throws to fit it in. I don't know if this marks a turning point for him or not. I hope so, but until I see more I'm going to bet that it defaults back to what we saw the first 9 weeks.

--The much-awaited return of Dawson Knox (1-17-0/1) resulted in a complete stinker. I don't think there's a problem here. Again nothing was open for Allen all game, and I didn't see anything off about Knox's movements. He just didn't get the ball for whatever reason. Hopefully he'll be back and better integrated into the offense next week. The connection between Knox and Allen isn't going to just disappear.

--You know what other Jets player looked fantastic here? Michael Carter (16-39-1, 4-43-0/6). He's the better Elijah Mitchell to me. Similar body types but Carter looks faster, more explosive, and with better hands in the passing game. Don't be scared by the low ypc here. The Jets run blocking isn't and the Bills defense is just shutting everything down. Carter is definitely a buy for me in dynasty but I'm a little worried about his redraft value without Mike White throwing him so many dump passes. Hopefully Wilson learned a thing or two from White's example while he was out.

Despite not playing much the first few weeks, Carter is now the #18 RB in ppr formats ahead of Antonio Gibson, Myles Gaskin, Damien Harris, Javonte Williams, and Chase Edmonds among others.

--While I still have some hope for Carter, I'm afraid we've seen the last of Ty Johnson (2-2-0, 5-36-0/8) in redraft now that Wilson is coming back.

--Elijah Moore (3-44-1/6) saved an otherwise poor day with a garbage time TD. This dip in numbers wasn't a problem with him or White. The Buffalo defense is just that good. Just like with Johnson, I'm worried about his redraft value without White, but I think he should be ok. Wilson likes going downfield to his receivers. Moore just wasn't available due to injuries early in the year with Wilson at QB. Let's see if Wilson looks more for Moore or Corey Davis (5-93-0/7).

--Speaking of Davis, he's got to be the worst #1 receiver in the league. I am just never impressed with that guy. Complete waste of money.

Snap Counts of Interest

49 = Dawson Knox

22 = Reggie Gilliam

20 = Tommy Sweeney

46 = Stefon Diggs

35 = Emmanuel Sanders

30 = Gabriel Davis

13 = Isaiah McKenzie

28 = Zach Moss

22 = Devin Singletary

8 = Matt Breida

65 = Corey Davis

64 = Jamison Crowder

43 = Elijah Moore

32 = Keelan Cole

55 = Ryan Griffin

8 = Trevon Wesco

40 = Michael Carter

25 = Ty Johnson

R.C. Fischer

FFM

18 November 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 10: Washington 29, Buccaneers 19

My memory from watching this live Sunday (among all the other games at the same time): Washington really played tough, and they flustered the Bucs, and I thought maybe the WTF’s (or WFT) are turning a corner and Tompa is falling down?

My reality from rewatching the game this day: Washington caught SEVERAL breaks early, got the momentum, Tampa started to press, the bouncing ball and BS penalties hit at the worst times and Washington ‘stole’ this from Tampa Bay. We’re starting to see this type of ‘shocker’ once a week or more now in the NFL now – it’s a game of inches…no, it’s a game of BS penalties too often. Can we please get instant booth reviews on roughing the passer and pass interferences?

The game announcers, the fans, and Bruce Arians were HYSTERICAL about Tom Brady’s two interceptions in the first quarter. His first one was a simple completion to a checkdown WR…a WR that corralled it and went to turn up field at the same time coverage reached around and tackled the ball and it popped out right into the sky, right into a DB hand’s who was coming in for the tackle. That play was a one in a million sequence of events.

The ‘terrible’ Brady interception set up Washington with a short field and an easy field goal, after they kicked a field goal on the first drive…6-0 Washington. Soon after, Brady was in the pocket trying to throw to a short crosser to Mike Evans and pressure came close and Brady adjusted to throw over it and he sailed the pass 5 yards over Evans’ head and right to an awaiting DB. This set up Washington at midfield and they drove down and hit on a TD pass…13-0 Washington.

The rest of the game, it seemed like the Bucs would take back control any moment, but they dropped passes at the wrong time, and on defense when they’d halt a drive they’d get a bad/questionable penalty to extend the drive…and the Bucs dropped at least two picks throughout the game right in guy’s hands. Despite all that, Tampa Bay closed it to 23-19 with 11+ minutes left in the game…and you just knew they’d come back to win.

But they didn’t.

More BS penalties, and Washington playing tough and Tampa pressing and credit the WTFs…they held it together and won the game. Washington played a solid game, got way more breaks, and snuck out with a victory. We shouldn’t get too high on Washington after, nor too low on the Bucs.

Wahsington is now (3-6) and clinging to playoff fantasies. They should go thumped by Carolina this week and then host Seattle on Week 12 MNF for their season/playoff lives. Washington is going to wind up with around 6 wins and they should throw in the towel on the season after Weeks 12 or 13.

Tampa Bay is now (6-3), losers of two straight. A not easy MNF game this week with NYG. The Bucs are not the best team in football by any stretch, but they will win 10-12 games and get back to the playoffs where…do you really wanna bet against Brady?

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Projecting what part of the season Washington might just throttle back on 2021 and start playing for 2022 is important, because I still believe they will look to pull back the reigns on/put on IR for the season with Antonio Gibson (24-62-2, 2-14-0/0) to allow him time to heal his fractured shin issue.

Jaret Patterson (4-7-0) was in on the first series again in this game, and Gibson could hardly find yardage when he ran (credit the TB run D…and a bad WSH O-Line)…but when Washington shockingly seized the lead early, Washington quickly went all in running heavy/managing clock with their big back Gibson against a topflight run defense…thus the 24 carries out of nowhere. Washington never trailed, so no RB rotation like usual…nor heavy hurry up with J.D. McKissic needed at all in this game.

This was a one-off event that I would use to sell Gibson as an RB1-1.5 this week. I see many capitalizing on this moment to trade Gibson like an RB1.5 this week in redraft.

I would rather have (for example) Rhamondre Stevenson or D’Onta Foreman for the rest of the season…two guys who play split roles but will score with (worst case) or out-FF-score Gibson working in the Washington offense. If that’s true, I sell Gibson for good goodies on a high note…not dumping him, but selling high. He commands a good price this week…everyone’s ‘RBs are killing them’ and they’ll do anything to try and solve it for the moment…and a guy that just got 24 carries is just the panacea. You’ve owned Gibson all year (I assume) – you know what Gibson’s touch counts have been this year. THEY don’t. They just see last week’s box score and have the perpetual ‘RBs killing me’ mindset at the forefront.

 -- The last two games for D’Andre Carter (3-56-1/6, 1-4-0)…

3.0 rec. (6.0 targets), 53.5 yards, 1.0 TDs per game

I’m a fan. He’s been a quality WR and return man for years, but always gets screwed by the system that always picks him up for returns and as a reserve WR body (PHI, HOU, etc)…but then the team ends up starting him at WR at some point in the season and he does fine, but then is demoted back down for a returning fraud/draft stock WR.

With Terry McLaurin getting all the cover attention, Carter is playing the role meant for Curtis Samuel…and he’s doing well enough with it and getting forgotten in coverage or working against the least DB on the opposing defense.

Carter also has 4 carries for 44 yards on jet sweeps as well this season. He’s a kinda Agnew-Deonte lite WR3/Flex option. Deonte being the king of them, talent-wise. Agnew in the best spot for touches.

 -- Ricky Seals-Jones got banged up in this game and is very questionable for Week 11. Logan Thomas is still not even close to returning apparently. Rookie John Bates (3-25-0/3) may be about to take over the TE spot in full for a week or two.

Bates answers the question – what if Pat Freiermuth could block well but moved like he had cleats made out of cement? The Washington TEs have been TE1 flirts all season, RSJ or Logan…so maybe Bates can be Heinicke’s Hunter Henry slow-ass TE TD look (with RSJ out)?

 -- Bucs DT Vita Vea (3 tackles, 1 TFL) changes this run defense when he’s on the field. He’s likely to miss Week 11…good news for NYG and Saquon/Booker/Dan Dimes.

 -- Washington played a very good, sound defensive game here…back-to-back good defensive performances. What’s changed? Is it real going forward?

Well, once Montez Sweat and Chase Young got hurt/gone…suddenly Washington was stout on defense. Just spitballing: all these GREAT edge pass rushers might be hurting NFL defenses – all they the tend to do is put their head’s down and try to get to the QB once a game to make announcers and fans rejoice, while they are complete zeros on the other 59 plays during the game…just guys running past the QB, and too often leaving wide open gaps to run through.

Washington is apparently better without Chase Young.

Every team has been better without Jadeveon Clowney.

The Chargers are better without Joey Bosa, because he’s the master of doing that (running past the play constantly).

Yet, the NFL pays these pass rush guys millions and millions to fail on 98% of their efforts…and not only fail, leave gaping holes in their wake.

Where the real pass rush difference is in the NFL is – DT pass rushers and/or line movers up the middle. And yet, the NFL glorifies the sackers and downplays the line corrupters up the middle. You’d rather have Vita Vea than Chase Young, but not for the highlight reel scouting crowd you don’t.

 -- Devin White (18 tackles, 3 TFLs, 2.0 sacks) was ‘possessed’ this game.

After a slow start to 2021, he’s averaged 12.3 tackles, 1.3 TFLs, 0.67 sacks per game in his last three games.

Snap Counts of Interest:

46 = Gibson

28 = McKissic

05 = Patterson

48 = Mike Evans

46 = Chris Godwin

33 = Tyler Johnson

04 = Jaelon Darden

02 = Breshad Perriman

‍

31 = Leonard Fournette RB

14 = Giovani Bernard

‍

30 = Cameron Brate

28 = O.J. Howard

R.C. Fischer

FFM

17 November 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 10: Patriots 45, Browns 7

The Browns got the ball first here and drove right down the field but stalled a bit near the goal line. Three goal line plays all thwarted, 4th & goal from the 2-3-yard line, they went for it…and got a toe-tap TD catch and took a 7-0 lead on a long, clock consuming drive. And I was SO pleased with my best bet of the week (CLE +2.5) watching it happen live Sunday.

The Patriots answered with a TD on their first drive…and then went on to score the next 45 points unanswered in a total beatdown of the Browns. Nice, best bet! Friggin’ Browns, I’m on the wrong side of them every week this year.

I think this is the dagger in the heart of the current Stefanski-Browns now and forever (under Stefanski). The Browns are wanting, trying to be the northern climate team that plays to their surroundings – trying to run the ball down people’s throats, work an efficient play action pass game off that, and have a tough-minded defense…throwback football. Well, the Patriots just took what the Browns want to do as an organization and beat them over the head with it – the Pats have a better run game, a better play action passing game, and a tougher defense. I think the Browns season and supposed ‘team of the future in the AFC’ label just died right here, right now.

The AFC North is filled with sloppy-good teams, so maybe the (5-5) Browns can get to 10 wins, or even 9, and somehow steal the division…but I don’t think so. They had their heart ripped out here and Baker is hurt, and this whole feel-good story is swirling down the drain. We see the Browns getting to 9 wins in the end and then trying to win the division through tiebreakers, but they might get to only 8 wins and finish last in this division.

The Patriots are ‘back’…kinda. They are winners of four in-a-row and have scored 25 or more points six straight games. They’re 10th in the league in PPG scored this season, but top five in PPG over the last six weeks. No more roasting Belichick from me. Never bet against Belichick is back on. Kinda.

Now, we do need to note…the list of wins/QBs the Pats have beaten is not very impressive, by and large – but they are winning, now dominating weaker teams…and that’s all you can ask for. The Pats are (6-4) and if they can go to Buffalo Week 13 and win…they might steal the AFC East. I’ll bet they don’t, and they go on to finish with 9 wins and are in the wild card hunt (with wins over CLE and LAC to help their case). Finishing with 8 wins and out of the playoffs is possible, as is 10 wins and very much in as a wild card. Weeks 12-13 vs. TEN, at BUF will tell us a lot about really good (or not) the Pats are right now.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Rhamondre Stevenson (20-100-2, 4-14-0/5) just ran over a pretty good run defense here. Stevenson willed his way to yards, running through and over people. He’s carved out a role with the Pats, when Damien Harris returns.

It will likely be a hot hand, RBBC with the intent being 60-40 Harris/Stevenson, with Brandon Bolden (3-32-0, 3-38-0/3) sprinkled in as well. But the distribution can/will change as the game flows. It’s perhaps the best three-headed monster attack in the NFL, and they are getting their O-Line back healthy at just the right time.

Stevenson should see 10+ touches per week and be a legit RB3 with upside every week.

Harris should be 10+ touches per week; maybe more 12-14 touches with limited pass game work.

Bolden will get 2-4 carries, 2-4 targets each week providing some relief.

They all look really good. They could RB1s on their own with all the touches/not sharing, but Belichick is the master of RB rotations and matchups, so it will be unpredictable week-to-week, because BB is smart about keeping opponents guessing.

 -- D’Ernest Johnson (19-99-0, 7-58-0/8) made a statement in this game…more so then when he became a media discovery a couple Thursdays ago. When everyone on the Browns seemed to quit in this game, Johnson ran like his life depended upon it. He was just as good as the Stevenson-Bolden goodness on the other side.

D’E-J got on the map a few weeks ago, for the NFL…this game gives him real hope at a career/future. Cleveland can look to trade Chubb or Hunt in the offseason and sign DE-J cheap and use him as part of the duo. You’d think Hunt would be the one to go, but he is the heart and soul of this team on offense, in my book.

If I know the NFL, however, it’s likely D’E-J will get pushed to the back of the line behind Chubb-Hunt and be a ghost until his 2023 free agency. But there’s at least some pressure on the Browns to have to do something different with this backfield for 2022 – they will have to tender Johnson (a restricted free agent) higher than they would have expected.

The Browns have a ton of payroll tied up in RBs, potentially, for 2022. In 2022, Hunt will be getting $6M+ for the final year of his deal. Chubb has a 2022 friendly deal at $5M+ ($13M+ in 2023). Still, that’s $11M in two RBs and D’Ernest may command $2M+ as a restricted free agent? It’s a lot of money at a position most NFL teams have $3-5M or less in per year combined for their backfield (like the Patriots).

The Browns will likely go Chubb-Hunt 2022. Sign D’Ernest for 2022. Let Hunt go 2023. And pay D’Ernest to be the new Hunt with Chubb in 2023. That’s a long way away for D’E-J Fantasy relevance…

 -- Baker Mayfield (11-21 for 73 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) isn’t looking 100% healthy but he’s trying to grit it out. I wouldn’t be shocked if they shut Baker down for a few weeks. It’s not a big FF-deal if they do, just things aren’t going to get better with Case Keenum (8-12 for 84 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) in the interim.

Baker is set to make $18M on a 5th-year option in 2022. I suspect they will keep him on that deal while drafting another QB in 2022 to replace him in 2023 when he’s an unrestricted free agent.

Baker better sign with the Browns now, for whatever he can get…and not play games. If he hits the open market, in this era…he may be shocked to see no one really wants him as their starter, especially not having to spend money on it.

 -- Donovan Peoples-Jones (1-16-0/5) is showing he’s not ready to be a #1 NFL WR. Not yet. Maybe someday, but he’s never been an alpha and now he’s thrown into it, so J.C. Jackson ate him alive.

DPJ will have moments ahead, but this is a weak passing game so I’m over the high FF-hopes on him already. It seemed like a great thing until your realize he’s never been a #1 anywhere…now he is, kinda, in a bad passing game.

Bryan Edwards has been a #1 alpha, so I have more hope for him that he’ll break out eventually. DPJ…I’m not sure he’s got ‘it’ for #1 duty right now. Talented, a nice #2…not a #1…not a WR1-2 for FF. He’s a random WR3 in this stunted offense where the weather is about to turn.

 -- Who is the Patriots WR to own?

Week 5 is when the Patriots really took off on offense. Let’s see what the targeting has been for the receivers since then:

19 rec. (24 targets), 339 yards, 2 TDs, 55 yds rushing, one 25-yd pass TD = Bourne (12.6 PPR PPG)

23 rec. (35 targets), 237 yards, 1 TD, 00 yds rushing, no passes = Meyers (10.5 PPR PPG)

11 rec. (23 targets), 191 yards, 1 TD, 1 yd rushing, no passes = Agholor (6.0 PPR PPG)

The move is towards Kendrick Bourne as the top WR here, FYI.

 -- In that same span, Hunter Henry (4-37-2/4) has been a stiff-running TD-maker…

17 rec. (24 targets), 212 yards, 6 TDs, no rush or passing = Henry (12.4 PPR PPG)

It’s working, don’t fight it…especially for non-PPR.

 -- Mac Jones (19-23 for 198 yards, 3 TDs/0 INTs) in that same span (since Week 5): 9 TDs/3 INTs with just 220.2 passing yards per game. Efficient but low-end QB2 type work.

He looks fine. He’s doing Mike White, Case Keenum, Colt McCoy type of work -- stable game manager, but he’s better at it/more talented than those guys…but he’s still a game manager for FF purposes.

 -- I’ve tried to promote this Browns defense. They look great one week, and then dreadful the next. I’m going to bail out of thinking they’re a top 5 NFL defense for the time being. They’re good…nice in good matchups for FF. Nothing more. Any offensive resistance, and they wilt.

 -- The Patriots defense is looking better and better, but they’ve basically gotten over on ZWilson, ZWilson, Darnold, and wounded Baker without Chubb/Keenum. Let’s not rush them too high up in reality – but at ATL Week 11 should be nice, the trouble the rest of the way until Week 17 v. JAX.

Snap Counts of Interest:

37 = Rhamondre

18 = Bolden

13 = JJ Taylor

50 = DPJ

47 = Landry

26 = Higgins

48 = Meyers

47 = Agholor

35 = N’Keal (wow, didn’t know this…he did nothing however)

29 = Bourne 

Ross Jacobs

FFM

17 November 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 10: Chiefs 41, Raiders 14

Well, I guess now the Chiefs are fixed. Or more accurately, they were never broken. Sometimes teams go through slumps. Sometimes they have bad games. Sometimes the blocking is bad, receivers drop passes, the ball bounces funny...these things happen and they don't always have to mean something big. More often than not it's just flukes, random chance. Mostly these teams are who we think they are.

The Chiefs so called slump was mostly the product of a little bad luck but also they played some pretty good defenses. The Titans game was a ton of bad luck early that put them in a hole, but the Giants and Packers both have very underrated defenses. RC has been on both of them for weeks, and yet we still collectively think of them as average defenses...thus the Chiefs struggling on offense is their own fault and not them getting held down by the opponent.

Sometimes you have to step back and question your assumptions when these things happen.

Lost in the offensive discussion is the fact that the “struggling” Chiefs won 2 of those 3 games and have now clawed their way back into the lead in the AFC West...and the defense is suddenly coming on to help! They've allowed a total of 38 points over their last three wins, albeit against the Giants with half their skill position players hurt and the Packers without Rodgers. Holding the Raiders to 14 was quite impressive though, and what if Love is actually good like RC and I suspect and (just like I said above about questioning your assumptions) what if it was a suddenly good KC defense that held him down?!

It's natural to assume that the KC defense is bad and thus Love is bad, but that might not be accurate anymore. If the KC defense has indeed made a turn and are now a decent group, then this team is about to get a rocket fuel jump and start crushing everyone on their way to another AFC West title.

This next week against the Cowboys is a huge test. Beat them soundly and they might cruise through their last 6 games with ease. Lose and they fall to 6-5 and leave the Chargers room to catch them. I don't think that's going to happen though. I think the Chiefs win this game and lose at most one, possibly two, more games.

The Raiders had a wonderful start to the season going 3-0 and getting everyone all excited, but in hindsight it wasn't that impressive a run. They had to mount a comeback against an ok Ravens team, got a good win against a poor Steelers squad, and struggled with the terrible Dolphins. Since then they've gone 2-4 and are quickly falling back into mediocrity. I've said it all year, this team just doesn't have the firepower necessary to compete with the better teams.

Looking at the schedule I see another 4 or 5 losses coming most likely, possibly even 6. The only team they will be clear favorites over is Washington. Every other game looks competitive if they aren't the outright underdog. Prepare for another 7 or 8 win season Raiders fans.

Fantasy Notes

--Guess Patrick Mahomes (35-50 for 406 yards, 5 TD/0 INT) didn't forget how to play football or have the league figure him out. 

Who would have thought that the greatest QB in NFL history didn't suddenly get shut down forever? How stupid was that argument, really? When have we ever seen an elite QB magically disappear from the landscape because the league “figured him out”? That's not even a thing, and suddenly you have analysts and fans claiming he's done for good? I think that has to be the single dumbest thing I've ever heard said about football.

Guess a couple of low scoring wins, not even losses but actual wins, will make people jump to some radical conclusions. Never forget that humans are rather dumb herd animals and will overreact to the tiniest bit of potentially bad news. It doesn't even have to actually be bad, but if people think something is bad they will run off a cliff to avoid it. These are the moments where FFM is ready to step in and profit off of herd stupidity.

I bet a few of our readers even managed to swing trades for Mahomes the past week or two. Think about that! The immortal Patrick Mahomes, the greatest weapon in all of fantasy, the golden boy, was available for trade, was being dumped on you as if he was hot garbage, all because people ignored his entire career of success because of 3 not great weeks!

If you were able to get a deal done for him, especially in dynasty, this past week then you have my congratulations. You just stole the greatest asset in fantasy and can now compete every single year for the next 10 years because of this one move.

--The “return” of Mahomes means that Tyreek and Kelce are back to elite status at their respective positions. No questions asked.

--Wish Mahomes would use CEH the way he used Darrel Williams (11-43-0, 9-101-1/9) in the passing game here. Here's the thing, a lot of analysts are going to say this is a sign that Williams is actually a better player/receiver than CEH with the logic being “well if CEH could do this then they would have already done it.” That's nonsense. Coaches do stupid shit all the time. Just look around the league. How many years was Cordarrelle Patterson completely wasted before he was unleashed by a coach with the eyes to see what he had?

CEH isn't the greatest back ever, but he's better than Williams. On the year CEH is averaging 4.7 ypc on 14.75 carries per game in his four healthy games. Williams is averaging a mere 3.6 ypc on the year and 13.8 carries per game during his five games as the lead back.

The main difference is that Williams has been fortunate to grab 5 total TD's during his lead time while CEH only got 2 and neither of them on the ground.

The only other difference is that during two of the past three games, Williams began to be used more in the passing game, possibly as a response to the two high safety looks everyone is throwing at the Chiefs these days.

I think it would be foolish to assume there won't be a plan to use CEH similarly upon his return. It's working and he has the skills to play in the passing game. Go look at his final year with Burrow at LSU for proof. If CEH returns to his usual 14.5 carries per game but also starts getting 5 or 6 targets per game and a little bit of TD regression then we're suddenly looking at an RB1 the rest of the year.

The only question is if he'll return to a split role with Williams after he's played so well (which is what most analysts are warning against). I think you know the answer to that. The Chiefs will go right back to CEH as the lead. He's never going to be a 70% usage guy, and that's fine. He'll get plenty of numbers as a 60/40 guy. He just needed the TD's and a few more catches to jump up the fantasy charts, and I believe that opportunity is about to come.

CEH could have been available on waivers or in easy trade for weeks...or right now, still. He's been hurt for weeks, somewhat ineffectual for fantasy when he was healthy (to the point of getting made fun of), and Williams put up a couple of flashy games that is scaring people into thinking this will be a true split backfield. I say go nab him now ahead of the curve and sit on him. It doesn't hurt to take a look, and there's a ton of upside if he pops the way I think he might. There's a decent chance he comes off IR this week against the Cowboys, but he should be back for sure in week 12.

--Byron Pringle (4-46-1/5) has finally ascended to the #2 WR role behind Hill and rightly so. It only took them this long to figure out he's their next best option. At least the change has finally been made though. This is another contributing factor to the improvement in KC's offense. Andy Reid may be a slow learner, but at least he eventually learns. Doubt it's worth much for fantasy, but maybe he can pull down WR4 numbers now? It's something.

--Josh Gordon is such a steal! He's a monster! He'll dominate with Mahomes....yeah, no catches, no targets, he really matters, huh?

--This was the first time all year I've seen a decent connection between Carr and Bryan Edwards (3-88-1/4). It's not enough for me to jump on the train...yet. I'm watching closely though. Trouble is that if he pops a huge game out of nowhere, there's been enough hype that he'll get snatched up on waivers before we can grab him. You have to get him a week early.

I don't think it's this week against a tough Bengals secondary, but perhaps the week after against the Cowboys? We'll see.

--The real top WR for now is Hunter Renfrow (7-46-1/9) as we've said all year. He is Carr's Edelman or Allen's Beasley. It won't work every week, but more often than not he's good for some safe ppr points.

--Where oh where has Darren Waller (4-24-0/7) gone? He had one great week and because it was a monster effort the first game of the year everyone has been duped into starting him every week in the vain hope that he's going to go crazy again. I do think he'll pop ahead at some point because he's still a very good player, but you wasted a lot of weeks waiting for it.

--Man does Josh Jacobs (7-16-0, 5-20-0/5) suck. Remember way back in 2019 and 2020 as a hotshot rookie and 2nd year “breakout” star when he was rushing for 1000 yards and 10+ TD's on a ton of volume while not being very effective? Me too. Funny how a year can change things. Sure would suck if Najee Harris had a similar career arc...just remember this next time you think Najee is untouchable and the #1 dynasty asset without a doubt.

--I'm not even going to talk about DeSean Jackson's fumble...if you haven't seen it, go watch. I don't know what this guy is doing or why the Raiders signed him.

IDP Notes

--Sorry RC, but Nick Bolton (4 tackles, 1 tfl) and his huge tackle counts might be gone and it's a good thing for this defense as a whole. I love Bolton as a run defender, but he's been a liability in the passing game all year. The last two weeks his snap counts have been drastically cut down to around 40% and suddenly the KC defense looks much better on the whole.

*RC NOTE: Yes, it looks like time to reel it back in on Bolton if KC is reeling him back in snp counts. 

--One guy not losing snaps is Denzel Perryman (11 tackles), also known as the NFL's leading tackler. The man has been on fire all year. And to think, he was signed as a free agent by Carolina after the Chargers didn't want to keep him, then Carolina cut him and he was signed by the Raiders. DeVondre Campbell was available forever this offseason after Arizona cut him and he signed for a pittance. Joe Schobert was traded for a song...you think maybe the NFL has an issue evaluating LB talent? I'm beginning to think so.

*RC NOTE: Bolton should be, has been for a bit, KC’s Perryman...run game, high tackle counts, pass game liability...but Bolton is getting pulled back on the leash it appears. 

Snap Counts of Interest

56 = Tyreek Hill

46 = Byron Pringle

33 = Josh Gordon

26 = Demarcus Robinson

45 = Darrel Williams

20 = Jerick McKinnon

11 = Derrick Gore

49 = Darren Waller

21 = Foster Moreau

46 = Zay Jones

43 = Bryan Edwards

39 = Hunter Renfrow

9 = DeSean Jackson

31 = Josh Jacobs

17 = Kenyan Drake