- FantasyFootballMetrics

: R.C. Fischer; FFM; 30 September 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 3: Game Analysis: Seahawks 38, Cowboys 31

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

It's crazy how on fire the Seattle offense/Russell Wilson is right now. Seattle was the aggressor, the team in the lead for most of this game but in this Arena League/Video Game league of legalized holding and rare P.I. calls (compared to the past) in 2020, Dallas was able to step on the gas and take the lead with 4:03 left in the game. But, Russell went right down and scored 2 minutes later and Seattle won a game they felt like they had all along…but Seattle’s defense is so bad right now, you never know what's going to happen or if any lead is ever really safe.

Seattle is now (3-0) and they are getting a ton of accolades, but are lucky not to be (1-2) with a near loss here and a Cam telegraphed run falling short Week 2 away from trouble…and then their only real win would be over sad Atlanta. Seattle looks like the best offense in the league right now…not the best team. They’ve yet to play an NFC West foe. They have two winnable games the next two weeks, then a bye, and then a tough five game stretch that will show us how good they really are.

Seattle might win the NFC West…they might be a wild card. The schedule gets hard then VERY easy after their Week 6 bye…a great finish with @PHI, NYG, NYJ, @WAS Weeks 12-16. We project them (11-5) right now.

Dallas is (1-2) but could easily be (0-3)…or (3-0). It feels like Dallas has never been ready for any of their games this year, and then they wake up late and hit the gas pedal, always chasing, never catching up…a bizarre onside kick not going their way away from being (0-3) with a loss to Atlanta included.

Dallas is not great but is likely to win the NFC East regardless because everyone else is worse. There could be some trouble in Dallas if they lose to CLE at home this week. We project Dallas (9-7) and division winners, at this early stage, but Washington could try to give them a push when they dump Dwayne Haskins after Week 4.

Fantasy Player Notes…

-- The big issue coming out this game…Chris Carson (14-64-0, 3-12-0/3) is expected to be out for 1-2 games with an injury. So, what happens to the backfield now?

Carlos Hyde (4-12-0, 1-11-0/1) should be the lead in a 65/35 split with Travis Homer (2-19-0, 0-0-0/1) but one of the others could get hot and be FF OK. Seattle is winning via air raid, so there’s not much for the backfield guys to do but get a chance at a short TD plunge…and that favors Hyde, you’d think.

I’m not wild about either choice, but they’re something for this week for the desperate.

Carson will be back Week 6, perhaps…two weeks away until Rashaad Penny might return and REALLY gum things up.

-- Who is Cedrick Wilson (5-107-2/7)…where did he come from…should I bid/pick him up?

I liked what I saw from him, as a scout, at Boise State coming out of the draft in 2018, but he was quickly buried, waived, re-picked up by Dallas 2018-2019 – he kept grinding his way to the roster.

Now, he finally got a chance after Weeks 1-2 of no targets and 3-4 snaps each game…and he made the most of it.

Wilson is a solid prospect and showed he was ready for the pros in this game. He really made some great catches and nice runs after the catch. He looked like a potential star…but note he was left to little coverage when he entered the game and made some hay of an ill prepared defense (that would have then overfocused on Amari and Gallup when he entered).

Note that is mentioned Amari-Gallup…not CeeDee Lamb (5-65-0/6). Why? Because most of Wilson’s big plays happened in 3-WR sets with Lamb out, and Wilson in the slot. Why? I’m not sure. I don’t know if Lamb was winded or what, but Wilson made the most of his moment.

The dirty secret here is – Cedrick Wilson looked better than CeeDee Lamb and Dak kinda rode it.

If there is ever a player who is going to get buried from here – it’s Cedrick Wilson. There is NO way Wilson can be allowed to do THIS again. The ‘this’ being making uncriticizable CeeDee Lamb look bad/look ‘lesser’. No one will allow for themselves to think for a second that Wilson might be better than Lamb, so Wilson will pass on with a fading memory.

If Wilson continues to look good, it calls into question why the Cowboys passed up on offensive lineman in the 1st-round for an overrated WR (Lamb) they didn’t need. Jerry Jones is worse than a TV NFL Draft analyst…he was suckered in by his 5 minutes of scouting watching Lamb highlights and just knew he was the guy they couldn’t pass on.

Wilson will be buried now…can’t make Jerrah look bad.

Ask Tyrell Williams and Keelan Cole (from 2-3 years ago) if WRs get buried or not because of draft stock and who’s above them on the roster in ‘name’. Cedrick has to battle his own team for more touches/playing time…and he won’t get it unless an injury happens – that’s my bet on the table.

-- The strong rise of Dak Prescott (37-57 for 472 yards, 3 TDs/2 INTs) and Russell Wilson (27-40 for 313 yards, 5 TDs/0 INT), along with Josh Allen…makes the impact of possessing Mahomes-Lamar less economically valuable, but you still need one of these guys to compete week-to-week in the current shootout fantasy version we’re all playing now. You gotta have one of the big boy QBs or you will get rolled by them. How many (3-0) FF teams in your redraft league are Russell Wilson-led? How many drafted CMC or Saquon?

Matt Ryan, Matt Stafford, Jared Goff, Big Ben, Aaron Rodgers…they are nice, but they don’t cut it any more like Dak-Russell-Josh-Mahomes-Lamar and Kyler do.

It’s Dak-Russell-Josh-Mahomes-Lamar-Kyler trying to rule the FF scoring world…with Kamara-A. Jones. No WR or TE is putting on a similar show. Maybe when Adams or Thomas come back, they will. De’Andre Hopkins might get/stay there too. Ridley will fade from the top ranks soon.

In the sea of all of these high flying QB scorers, if you drafted Deshaun Watson as your ‘any old good QB will do’…well, then your FF season is: https://youtu.be/M5QGkOGZubQ . I have 1-2 best ball teams along the way that did it…and they’re all but dead now.

-- Trevon Diggs (9 tackles, 1 PD) is a good-looking rookie corner. Still getting adjusted to NFL coverage but starter-level talent…better than Jeff Okudah probably.

In his last two games, Diggs has 7.5 solo tackles per game with 1.0 PDs…pretty salty numbers for a CB in IDP. But rookies tend to be ‘all out’ for their first few games to prove themselves, then settle back in as ‘human’ later.

-- Seattle rookie CB Ugo Amandi (7 tackles, 2 PDs) is trying to man the slot cover role, and he’s struggling…but he is getting good tackle counts for IDP.

In his two games played this season (Weeks 2-3), Amandi is averaging 7.0 solo, 0.25 assisted tackles with 1.0 PD per game.

Snap Counts of Interest:

74 = Lockett

73 = Metcalf

34 = Swain

31 = D Moore

48 = Olsen

30 = Dissly

44 = C Carson

16 = Homer

16 = Hyde

70 = Gallup

65 = Cooper

49 = Lamb

24 = C Wilson

: R.C. Fischer; FFM; 29 September 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 3: Game Analysis: Bills 35, Rams 32

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

*TUE 9/29 Video Q&A – Special Time: 7pmET-830pmET*

This game.

I have my notes set aside, ready to go. It’s not a ton of players…it’s the normal looking note sheet for me. Before the rewatch, I thought I’d talk about Darrell Henderson a lot and then try to figure out a quick way to tell you Josh Allen really isn’t that good/he’s an erratic QB, but he’s playing well now…and ‘I missed it’ and hope we all remember the good things I’ve done on QB scouting and forget the Allen one (you know I’m not like that). I thought this was going to be a short and sweet report, but I feel a tsunami of divine revelations from God about this game that’s going to take me all day to type. It should be a pretty entertaining read…and long.

Actually, I think one particular part is going to scare some of you to death.

That’s a tease.

We’ll get to that ‘horror’ in the player section…and I’m telling you, for some, the blood is going to drain out of your face when you read it as sure as I sit here. I don’t want to deliver this particular message that I’m going to in the player section -- but I have to share the vision that hit me watching this game.

How teased are you now? Some of you might hate me soon.

Before all that, this game…

The Bills jumped out to a 28-3 lead in this game…with 23 minutes left, it was all but over. Stop and consider that for a moment. Two undefeated teams. Two (considered) pretty good teams (not an undefeated fluke like the Bears) played a game here. Two evenly matched teams. Two pretty good coaches. Both teams ‘good with flaws’. Of course, it would be a close game!

It wasn’t close. Not at all…not really.

The Buffalo Bills absolutely punched the Rams in the face. A few lucky/odd plays/calls by the refs happened to get the Rams rolling back into the game. The Rams roared all the way back to take the lead, and then gave it up on the Bills final, masterful drive for a game winning TD.

Facts to take away from this game…

We all love/respect Sean McVay as a head coach, but Sean McDermott is a better NFL head coach. Not even close and given this showdown -- McDermott ‘won’. McDermott as coach and a master player personnel guy is almost unrivaled now in the NFL. He might be better than Belichick…and that’s not a shot at Belichick.

When McDermott trades away/cuts players…it’s almost NEVER a mistake. Those players go on to flop in their new places. When McDermott invests in a draft pick/trading for/signing as a free agent a player…everyone should reconsider what McDermott sees and is doing. McDermott has been a wheeler-dealer since he hit Buffalo and has methodically gotten rid of the bloated and the big college divas and built a team specifically for Buffalo, in his image.

The Buffalo Bills are becoming the Detroit Pistons Bad Boys of the 90s…minus the ‘trying to purposefully hurt people’ part.

The ‘Bad Boy’ Pistons did not have the ‘names’ or star power of the Lakers or Celtics back in the day, but they built a team of misfits and specialists into the deepest/best team in the NBA. The Lakers had Magic Johnson and friends. The Celtics had Larry Bird and his friends. The Bulls had emerging Michael Jordan – all ‘faces’ of the NBA on its most storied franchises. The backbone of the Pistons team was a kinda no-name off guard who was one of the only players who could slow down Michael Jordan with defensive prowess, and was a player who could’ve been a top scorer in the league except he let others do that while he did the dirty work…one of my favorite sports players of all-time, Joe Dumars out of tiny McNeese State. There will be no 30-for-30 ten-part series on ESPN on how vital, how good Dumars was in NBA history.

Detroit also drafted a 6’9” small college player out of Southeastern Oklahoma State who couldn’t shoot, a kid who was recruited to play JUCO college basketball while he was essentially homeless as a teen/young adult…and was then punted from the school due to academic issues. He got one last chance at Southeastern Oklahoma State…and Dennis Rodman would go on to be the 6th Man of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year multiple times, a Hall of Famer, a world champion multiple times, and probably the greatest defensive player and rebounder in the history of the game.

The Pistons, by and large, were not a team of pedigree. They just outworked and out-toughed everyone and fit in odd pieces to make a wonderful unit for a couple of NBA titles. The Buffalo Bills are doing the same thing. Josh Allen/Wyoming. Devin Singletary/Florida Atlantic. John Brown/Pittsburg…State. Dawson Knox/Mississippi State.

This unit won 10 games a year ago and made the playoffs (and should’ve won their 1st-round game). Last year, when the Ravens started crushing everything in sight ion the 2nd-half of the season…it was the Bills that almost beat them…they had a chance on a final drive. This Bills team was supposed to be ‘good’ again this year but not great. They are now (3-0). ‘Great’ is getting into sight for this team/franchise…but not ‘great’ in the traditional sense. Not ‘great’ with names the media adores. The media is going to hate this team, and their hate will show when they pat them on the head and say how ‘good’/decent a team they are.

The Bills are moving into position as the 3rd-best team in the NFL…KC…then BAL, then Buffalo.

They just outcoached and out played Sean McVay in this game. Last year, two weeks before Buffalo took the Ravens to the end, not backing down in the moment…two weeks prior the Rams were humiliated 45-6 by Baltimore, and that score was closer than the game really was. I think the Ravens played their 3rd-string starting the 2nd-half. The Ravens couldn’t pull that stunt with the Bills two weeks later.

Then Buffalo Bills didn’t just beat the Rams here – they put Sean McVay and the Rams organization underneath their heel as they climbed another rung of the ladder. The Rams should’ve lost this game by 30+ points. Then, the Rams should’ve won through a nice/fluky comeback. Buffalo is the better, tougher, smarter team.

I’m back to being a Buffalo Bills fan…I think that’s where I left off last year anyway.

Buffalo has two tough road games ahead (at LV, at TEN) and then a Week 6 game on TNF with KC. We’ll see how good they are the next few weeks. I suspect the Bills will be (5-2) getting ready to host New England Week 8, and then I bet Buffalo blows their doors off.

I’ll explain more about ‘what’s making the Bills tick’ in the player section.

And the Rams played in this game too…

The Rams are not physically tough enough to be NFL champs. They’re just not. Buffalo beat S-A-W-F-T Dallas and Philly to start the year and then got popped here. Because the game ended up close…the Rams are not going to get enough hit in Week 4 in Vegas lines, and the Bills will not get the respect due because the score looked closer than it was.

I like the Giants +13.0 against the Rams this week.

I’ll lay -3.0 to the Raiders for the Bills too, but Vegas has a watered-down version of what Buffalo is doing…so I’m not as over the moon here.

Fantasy Player Notes…

-- The ‘horror’ item I mentioned, I’ll save that to the end because it will need some time to ponder upon.

Who was not a ‘horror’ -- Darrell Henderson (20-114-1, 1-6-0/3) has stolen what was rightfully his to begin wit…he’s the Rams new lead back, and an RB1 for your fantasy teams.

I know there’s fear of Cam Akers or fear of Sean McVay messing this up…and I get that, I’ve said it and joked about it for weeks. But we’re in a different geography on this now. Henderson having a good 2nd-half of a game vs. sad Philly Week 2 is one thing, but this game against Buffalo…it was Henderson’s opportunity (with Akers out of McVay’s reach) and DHendo delivered.

This wasn’t just a ‘good game’ because he ‘got touches’. This was a minor masterpiece by Henderson…tough running with high end burst the likes of which is rare among NFL RBs, rare for his size 210 +/- pounds. Henderson is just flat-out better than Cam Akers, and Malcolm Brown is not in the conversation either. It’s now painfully obvious…and wouldn’t have been if Akers hadn’t gotten hurt Week 2. McVay still would have had his head buried in the sand with Akers if he could have. If Sean McDermott was coaching the Rams, he would have already noticed, and Henderson would’ve been starting 2019 (like he did with Singletary last year). McVay dragged his feet on Henderson all 2019…for what? For Todd Gurley. Don’t tell me Sean McVay is better at coaching or personnel than Sean McDermott.

The Rams only chance to be tougher, to make the playoffs is being led by Darrell Henderson.

I don’t know what kind of split it will be ahead…probably 70/30 because all backfields should be split for the sake of the RBs health/stamina but Henderson is getting the 70 and the other two will fight for the 30. McVay has no choice now. Henderson is a Sean McDermott style player, and Sean McVay can hope DH rubs off on his finesse group.

I would not fear Henderson fading or getting bypassed by Cam Akers. There’s no way even Sean McVay could’ve watched the last two weeks and thought he'd be better off with Akers. Henderson is now a strong RB1-level fantasy asset.

-- On the other side of the field, Devin Singletary (13-71-0, 4-50-0/5) had a good+ game here. He lost out on three TDs by inches. One TD was a great play by him, long play lunged to the end zone but just short and then stuffed the next carry to get it, then the TD went somewhere else on the next try. Later…a couple of times near the goal line, Josh Allen refused to pitch a clear/open Singletary the ball on an option play while Allen kept it and got rocked (I missed 12-18 points because of dumb luck at the goal line, and I blame Allen because someone needs to be blamed for my fantasy woes).

McDermott is committed (smartly for the NFL, sad for FF) to a 60/40 Singletary-Moss split, but Moss may be out a few weeks and Singletary may just push on the gas past him to a nice 70/30 split when Moss returns.

Moss is not in Singletary’s league, yet…if he ever will be.

Singletary is an RB1 threat without Moss around…but Josh Allen taking rushing TDs makes DS more an RB2.

Singletary is a talent, but he didn’t look as good as Henderson…and Singletary looked really good.

-- Another efficient day from Jared Goff (23-32 for 321 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT). he’s really been solid/good+ since the last 5-6 games of 2019 into these first three games of 2020. Since the offense changed to use Tyler Higbee (2-40-0/2) more, Goff’s numbers have jumped.

But now we have to worry a bit about Higbee…4-5-2 for targets in three games in 2020. That extreme output of late 2019 has not been seen in 2020. The three TDs were great Week 2, but it was still only 5 catches for 54 yards.

It appears Higbee is more #5-10 type of TE1 than a #1-3 TE1. Going to be solid/good, sometimes great but we haven’t seen a continuation of the numbers/targets from 2019. Where Higbee might be a top 5 TE1 is if he goes more Mark Andrews – 3-4-5 catches, 30-40-50 yards in most games, but is getting 10+ TDs a season. Higbee might be headed there with the occasional 6+ catch, 70+ yard outburst…and thus can be a top 5 TE1.

Higbee is a plug and play more than a ‘guess which weeks are REALLY good vs. OK/good’.

-- What is a little amazing about this Bills win, this (3-0) start – it’s not led by the defense. I thought the Bills would be a top NFL defensive unit again his year. So far, they’re middle of the pack overall -- and bottom 12 in an area where they used to be #1-2-3 in the league – pass defense.

Jared Goff got back into this game comfortably…through the air, while DHendo gashed them on the ground. Yet, somehow the Bills are winning shootouts? That’s not the Bills that I know.

I bet McDermott turns this defense around/fixes the leak, to some degree, he’s as great a defensive mind as there is in the game. The schedule isn’t great ahead, so I’m on the sidelines for using their DST until Week 7 at NYJ.

-- Bills’ rookie WR Gabriel Davis (4-81-0/4) stepped up nicely for an in-game injured John Brown. Davis is quietly becoming one of the better rookie WRs from this class. Not the electricity for FF or highlights, but just a sound worker. Davis is like Van Jefferson (0-0-0/1) of the Rams. Eventually, they might be ‘the main target’ for their QBs, but that’s years from now and maybe never…perhaps always just ‘reliable’/professional (i.e. WR3s in FF at best).

-- Cole Beasley (6-100-0/7) is quietly having a good run again. I know…every time we try to get on this train for a week or two, he flops. When we don’t have him, he does this type of game. John Brown being out helped…a lot.

If Brown is out this week…Beasley is a legit PPR play/option.

Beasley is averaging 5.0 rec., 76.0 yards, 0.00 TDs per game so far this season.

-- Stefon Diggs (4-49-1/6) had a quiet game, but of course he did…he had Jalen Ramsey (1 tackle, 1 PD) chasing him. Still, Diggs had his moments. Ramsey is getting more on the overrated side now…still great when he wants, but he’s part of the bloated ‘star’ class of the McVay/Rams, something Sean McDermott would not want/allow. But Tre’Davious White (1 tackle) might be getting infected by this as well (he got paid right before the season started)…the Bills pass D is a shell of itself in 2020.

I’m all-in on Stefon Diggs. Hated him before the season, but what I’m seeing…I love. If you can get him on a semi-down game Week 3, reasonably, I’d go for it. He’s definitely not a ‘sell high’.

-- OK, are you ready for the ‘Horror Show’ (for some of you)?

I’ve been giving clues the last several notes/comments/bullet points.

Why have the Bills been winning despite the poor defensive numbers (for them)? It certainly hasn’t been the running game, I own a lot of Devin Singletary, I watch his work like a hawk…it’s not the running game totals, I can assure you. Endorsing Cole Beasley? Glowing about Stefon Diggs? Mentioning Gabriel Davis?

It’s all because Josh Allen (24-33 for 311 yards, 4 TDs/1 INT) is becoming/has become one of the five best quarterbacks in the NFL.

He’s also become one of the 2-3-5 best fantasy QBs in the game.

Now, you might think…”Sure, he’s off to a great start, everyone knows this. What are you making such a big deal about?”

No…I mean Josh Allen has really become one of the best QBs in the NFL, and thus one of the best for FF. Like…he’s not just legit/doing well – no, he’s becoming ‘high-end’. His numbers this year are fantastic…beyond ‘lucky streak’, and the four-minute, 4th-quarter comeback drive at the end of this game was Allen just being ‘too good’.

Allen is becoming so good that the Bills are turning into a passing team…on purpose. McDermott is no fool. I’m down with Stefon Diggs now. I’ll take note of Beasley (if Brown is out) this week. I’ll be interested in John Brown. I’m raising up everything Bills passing game related another notch. A big notch.

Allen is beating teams with his arm and his legs, but did I mention his arm? The 55% Completion Percentage passer year’s #1-2…is completing 71.1% of his passes so far in 2020. He beat a solid pass defense in the Rams this week, and an OK Miami one…and the Jets. I don’t think it’s a fluke on schedule ease.

So far this season for Allen: 10 TDs/1 INT, 2 rushing TDs, and all three games are 300+ yards.

Russell Wilson has 14 TDs/1 INT, 0 rushing TDs, and two of 3 games with 300+ yards.

Wilson and Allen are #1-2 in FF scoring per game (4pts per pass TD) so far.

I don’t know if Josh Allen took a magic potion or sold his soul to the devil and is now great…and all his accuracy issues are all fixed. I don’t know if it’s coaching. I don’t know if it’s offseason training. I don’t know if it's the addition of Stefon Diggs. Whatever it is…something has clicked with Josh Allen. He looks like the best QB in the NFL, to me, so far through three games…better than even Russell Wilson.

It’s not necessarily a ‘2020 thing’…in Allen’s last 16 regular season games, he’s thrown for 27 TDs and just 4 INTs…plus, rushed for 8 TDs.

I never thought I’d live in a world where Josh Allen has 27 TDs/4 INTs in a 16-game stretch. This could be the most wrong I’ve ever been on a QB scouting the way it’s going. I’ll have an offseason to go through and see what was missed/how this happened, but it’s nothing like I’ve ever seen – how can someone so inaccurate from college to his first two NFL seasons just become ‘an assassin’ in year three?

I’ll go ahead and get out in front of ‘changing’ here. I made fun of all the knuckleheads on the NFL’s Good Morning Football show who pushed Josh Allen as an MVP for 2020 in the preseason. What did they know? I’m a real scout…they’re stupid. Well…I’m the stupid one and I owe them an apology: https://youtu.be/-vMH7FslCcU

The prevailing wisdom on this Allen run is – it’s too good to be true…it’s a blip…it’s the schedule…he’ll crash back to earth. The ‘smart’ football people who have railed against him for years, celebrating their ‘rightness’ on him being too inaccurate to be a good, much less great, NFL QB – they will not change their tune fast enough. The ‘smart’ people’s upcoming move is to give it a pat on the head and go ‘he’s hot now, I didn’t see it coming…but bet against it ahead/sell high’. They will pay a backhanded compliment, but they don’t really believe it…I’ve done it plenty in my career in football scouting. Holding onto a bad hand for longer than I should not realizing something changed (or I was wrong).

Recent guys I’ve not been in love with but just got tired of seeing them do better than I expected, so I gave up…but now am not giving up my original feelings – Carson Wentz and Deshaun Watson. I never really thought they were as good as everyone thought but I had to relent because they were doing well year two of their careers…but are now crashing a bit. Could this ‘crash’ happen with Allen? With Wentz and Watson, they roared onto the scene and then tailed off. Allen stumbled onto the scene years one and part of two but he just keeps chopping wood/getting better.

Also, the way Allen has played the past three games…it’s better than I’ve ever seen Wentz or Watson play. Week 1…I was like -- ‘freaking lucky Allen’ (because I never own him). Week 2…I was like -- OK, enough. I’ll raise his projections to the moon to shut him up. Week 3…I was like, “Where have you been all my life…you beautiful creation of a QB!”

I’m fully on board with Josh Allen…I’m late, but I hope I’m ahead of a lot of people. Most people will have the same opinion of Allen this week as the old me (of 48+ hours ago)…”This too shall pass. He’s just been lucky. Better sell him high/hot before he regresses to his mean.”

Some random Samplings off the free interweb…

From Sporting News ‘Sell High’ list: Josh Allen (QB – BUF)

We’ve seen Allen’s big performances before, but truth be told, he posted QB1-type numbers in just 43.8 percent of his games last year. He does present a solid floor each week due to his mobility, but someone is surely going to value his big Week 1 performance and be willing to overpay.

From FantasyPros last week: Stefon Diggs (WR – BUF)

You won’t find a bigger fan of Diggs than me from a talent standpoint, but you’re kidding yourself if you think his WR1 production continues. Josh Allen hadn’t thrown for more than 266 yards prior to Week 1 of this year. He’s now thrown for a league-leading 729 yards through two weeks? This is a situation just begging to even itself out. If you’re able to get a top-15 wide receiver value for Diggs, you should take advantage of his hot start.

John Brown (WR – BUF)

Do you think the Bills are going to have two top-10 wide receivers at the end of the year? Yeah, neither do I. This is your opportunity to sell high on Brown, who has managed to rack up 10/152/2 over the first two weeks while Josh Allen leads the NFL in passing yards. Brown is going to pop off from time to time, but he’s not going to be an every-week starter. If you’re able to get top-30 value out of him in a trade, you should.

It's the general mood of the masses…Allen has been great for a few games, but don’t expect it to last. It’s all scheme not talent and no way Diggs and Brown can hold up. If I’m right (now)…that’s all wrong, WAY wrong…and that presents and opportunity to still buy lower priced than they should be guys in Diggs or Brown…and even Allen.

So, was that ‘The Horror Show’? You may be wondering…so you admitted you got Josh Allen wrong? So did a lot of people. No big deal…except you’re supposed to know this stuff before everybody else.

Sorry, I’m about to start the Horror Show.

Ready?

Deep breath.

I’m not sure that Josh Allen isn’t a better quarterback in general and for fantasy than Kyler Murray NOW or for the future. https://youtu.be/RP-hMSQEAE4

Let that marinate for a moment. And you know I’m not joking to bring up something like this. If you’re a Kyler owner and have been enjoying his FF success and feeling good about things, I just semi-kicked you in the stomach. Kyler is still a good thing, but Josh Allen is the better all-around QB from what I see.

But, RC…come on, man! Out of nowhere you switch from hate/dismissing of Allen and now you’re in love, and so much in love you’re pushing him over your beloved Kyler? I mean…Rome wasn’t built in a day. We’re just digesting that you love Allen and that he has been really good, but now we’re going this far already? I mean, buy me dinner first…

All valid points that I am definitely considering/debating with myself. However, did you see Kyler’s game Week 3? The highly inaccurate Josh Allen has 3 interceptions in his last 15 games, including one playoff game. Kyler Murray has three interceptions in the last 48+ hours. Mostly horrible picks to a wobbly secondary with no real pass rush and 2nd-string CBs starting.

Kyler has 10 TDs/12 INTs in his last 8 NFL games. Josh Allen has 10 picks in his last season and three games + a playoff game (20 games).

Kyler’s advanced metrics indicate a guy throwing short passes a bunch…and when he extends out to further downfield passes he’s missing them or turning it over.

On 3rd and 4+ yards to go this season, known passing downs…

15 of 27 (55.6%), 172 yards, 1 TD/3 INTs, 9 first downs = Kyler

15 of 19 (79.0%), 181 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT, 12 first downs = Allen

On 10 or more yards to go on any down this season…

48 of 71 (67.6%), 549 yards, 2 TDs/5 INTs, 22 1st-downs, 5 sacks = Kyler

56 of 72 (77.8%), 823 yards, 2 TDs/0 INTs, 27 1st-downs, 5 sacks = Allen

Now, for FF…Kyler is rushing for better totals and more TDs, but he better keep that up because Allen is running pretty well (like usual) too and he’s destroying things as a passer.

As a scout of things, I watch Kyler 2020 and I love that he’s running more for FF. But watching him as a passer – same dull offense. Quick hitters to short receivers that if DeAndre Hopkins got hurt, I think Kyler would be screwed. Hopkins has been so great after the catch that it’s helped prop up Kyler’s mediocre passer totals. Kyler’s air yards per pass are very low. He’s dinking and dunking more than anyone cares to admit.

Allen is throwing all over…short, medium, deep with accuracy and in pressure situations and he’s not turning the ball over. He also looks 10,000 times better to my eye than Kyler as a passer right now. And that’s not a total slam on Kyler. I’m more marveling at how really good Allen has become.

In addition, I don’t trust Kliff Kingsbury…at all. What I see in this 2020 offense is very similar to 2019 and is still very basic…and is DeAndre Hopkins based/centric. Is Kyler going to get better under Kingsbury? Are we at peak Kyler? You see how much Kyler throws into danger now…and how much he sulks on the sidelines? He, to me, is not a leader and is not getting better as a passer – he’s just running more. He’s a good passer. Very natural. But I don’t see a ‘next level’ yet. I doubt Kingsbury ever pushes Kyler at all – the kid runs the parent in that relationship. The inmates run the asylum.

Not so with McDermott-Allen. McDermott is rapidly improving Allen, and Allen is a tough-minded, puts his body on the line type of leader. I don’t think Allen is going to fall off or pout. McDermott wouldn’t have it. Kingsbury would with Kyler.

Long term…what if Kingsbury gets fired? I think Kyler would have a meltdown and be a handful and not want to play in any different system. I could be wrong. Allen is being groomed into a system and is being let off the chain because he earned it.

Would you take Josh Allen in a trade for Kyler Murray, straight up, in FF today? You probably would not. Therein lies my point for you to consider…

I think most people see Kyler as an ‘A’ talent…a razzle-dazzle, MVP candidate, future star. I think most people see Josh Allen as ‘lucky’…as a ‘C-D’ QB having a good moment, but is really a ‘C-D’ grade QB and he’ll fall back there soon.

My question to myself is – If I could get Josh Allen + a great ___ for Kyler, in this time of the hype Kyler is getting…would I do it? Should I do it? It could be I get the equal/better QB in Allen AND a great player to go-with.

I don’t want to panic you too much on Kyler. I suspect 50%+ of Dynasty people reading this own Kyler (and 0% own Allen…and that’s going to change right now/this week). I am wrestling with the question of whether we are at peak Kyler and now is a great time to sell sky high, because he is starting to worry me a touch…his Week 3 game was not good. His latest trends are not great (as a passer). Could I sell Kyler + to get Mahomes in a deal (not after that MNF game I can’t)?

Or…regardless of Kyler, should I be pushing for a deal for any type of slick deal on Josh Allen before everyone really figures it out…or will Allen revert? My scouting eye/gut says this Allen run is not luck/too good to be a blip.

At a minimum…I need to take Josh Allen way more seriously. Some of you do too and it’s my fault you don’t.

Snap Counts of Interest:

61 = Diggs

46 = G Davis

38 = Beasley

29 = Jo Brown

17 = McKenzie

67 = Woods

62 = Kupp

62 = Josh Reyn

08 = Van Jefferson

34 = M Brown

34 = D Henderson

: R.C. Fischer; FFM; 29 September 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 3: Game Analysis: Titans 31, Vikings 30

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

*TUE 9/29 Video Q&A – Special Time: 7pmET-830pmET*

The Vikings went up 24-12 with 8+ minutes left in the 3rd-quarter and it just felt like it was going to be a Minnesota win…that the (0-2) team would rise up to take down the (2-0) team that had been skating by on some luck to be undefeated. They seemed evenly matched enough and it was a simple game of ‘let’s see who is better’ the side giving the ball to Derrick Henry every play or the side giving the ball to Dalvin Cook every play.

The Derrick Henry side won in the end.

Could’ve gone either way but the Titans just felt like they were playing ‘like winners’ and Minnesota just isn’t playing with any confidence or pizazz. Just the mood of the game or I was just projecting into it…but it seemed Tennessee was not rattled and Minnesota puckered up down the stretch.

The Vikings feel like they need a ‘hard reboot’…just flush the system and rebuild. Cousins and Cook and Thielen and Zimmer are nice, but not nice enough to be a juggernaut. Perhaps Danielle Hunter returns and is an adrenaline shot instead of a reboot, but he might be weeks away and the season is lost by then. Not having the home field advantage anymore really stings the Vikings. Minnesota plays at Houston Week 4 in a game that is going to likely end one team’s season unofficially.

Tennessee is (3-0)…three wins by a combined 6 points. They’ve beaten teams that are a combined (1-8). And lucky to have beaten any of them. The clock is ticking on Tennessee. A three game homestand against PIT-BUF-HOU could expose this team, but if they come out of it (4-2), they’ve got the schedule to win 9-10 games this year.

Fantasy Player Notes…

-- Let’s get this out of the way first, the main thing I watched from the tape study: Justin Jefferson (7-175-1/9). Is he worthy of the top waiver spot this week…is he a FF wide receiver savior this week/ahead?

No, I don’t think so.

Jefferson is good/solid, he might even be very good…eventually. I just think it’s a bit early/rash to start jumping on his bandwagon and thinking he’s going to carry your wounded warrior WR group right now. If I were to have him/had acquired him this week – I would sell him hot/high as best I could.

It won’t get any better than ‘rookie’ + 100+ yard game + the big game happened last week/fresh in our minds.

Sure, there’s a place for him here – the clear #2 WR where Adam Thielen (3-29-1/5) will get the main coverage, but this is the #27 passing game in the NFL, a new O-C, a stuffy head coach who wants to run every play…and Jefferson is good-not-great, and if he is great it’s not yet.

People are going to go crazy for him this week. The funny part is that in leagues where Allen Lazard is not taken (which is a crime if you let that happen)…Lazard had just as big of a Week 3, plays with a superior offense/QB, and is more experienced and has a #1 WR who takes all the coverage…and Lazard will get half or less the interest. People are going to reach here because they LOVE magical unicorn rookies…especially if they owned them first! Why…it will be so magical and glorious to be the first to plant my flag…

Jefferson is as good as any WR2-3 option out there, but most of them you can get for a lot less today.

-- In this same game, Kalif Raymond (3-118-0/3) had three huge catches and a 100+ yard game, and…yaaaawwwwnnn. Why…he can’t be any good? He can’t be magical or a unicorn because he’s not a rookie…and, ewwww, he wasn’t even drafted. Yuck. Gross. And he didn’t even catch 4 TD passes from Joe Burrow in a college game I watched either, so moving on…

Raymond is a solid rotational #4 WR teams forget about and he just beats them deep for a/one play a week…this game it was three, a first for him.

In other Titans WR news, Corey Davis (5-69-0/6) had another forgettable game.

As soon as A.J. Brown returns, every Titans WR goes back to their normal flow.

-- The normal flow for the Titans passing game includes Jonnu Smith (5-61-0/8). Jonnu is Tannehill’s #2 guy now from what I see…#1 with AJB out, but #2 when he returns – and in a low volume, high efficiency passing game.

Jonnu is a higher-end TE1 talent who will be a low-end TE1 producer for FF/PPR with Brown back. He’ll be stable/solid but limited upside still showing due to the passing game.

-- Darrynton Evans (3-9-0) made his debut. He didn’t flash or show anything, but it was limited touches in his first ever game. Looked below average, but that’s normal for a rookie. I think he’s a ‘C to C+’ type talent…buried behind Derrick Henry. No more, no less…but he would be the guy if Henry went down.

-- The number of emails and questions I got about trading away Derrick Henry (26-119-2, 2-11-0/3) last week was crazy, but expected.

Whenever a player has two weak FF games (especially if Weeks 1-2)…owners panic and the price drops and the urgency to ‘change for the sake of change’ is high. All that goes away now with this 2 TD game.

If you wanted to sell Henry, the time is now…off this type of week. The crazy fantasy thing that destroys FF teams is the weak-minded, fly-by-night ever-changing emotional management of selling low and buying high – last week you would have traded Henry reasonably for whatever. Now, just one week later, Henry is untouchable for you/the price is 5x higher for what you’d want in exchange. All in one week?

The fantasy mind is a fascinating, frightening thing.

That’s why I keep railing and encouraging the (0-3) teams…it’s an easy trap to fall into, an easy (defeated) mindset to adopt and accelerates the downfall of struggling teams. And all you (2-1) and (1-2) teams…you’re a week away/a loss away from potentially falling down the same rabbit hole of illogicalness. You should read all the (0-3) stuff from today as a cautionary tale.

For every 100 people who listen to my patience message, one person will be helped/will take it to heart. I do it for ‘the one’ and have hope for ‘the 99’. Sometimes you need to hear it a thousand times before it clicks in and changes your process. I only know because I deal with this with so many people for so many years now…I’ve been to the future. I know how this movie goes. I was one of those who learned the hard way myself. I know of what I speak.

-- Vikes CB Holton Hill (7 tackles) cannot stop getting 7 tackles in a game! He’s hit 7 total tackles three games in a row now. Which is impressive for a cornerback. Note he’s 6’2”/200+ at CB…he’s like a safety at corner.

Hill is the #15 DB in IDP scoring per game (FPros data). The #5 CB in IDP scoring…one tackle from being #3 among CBs.

Snap Counts of Interest:

61 = Thielen

51 = J Jefferson

22 = Beebe

05 = Bisi J.

55 = Corey Davis

45 = Cam Batson

39 = Humphries

20 = Raymond

: R.C. Fischer; FFM; 28 September 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 2 Game Analysis: Ravens 33, Texans 16

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

The Texans were never in this game, really…but they weren’t ‘out of it’ for most of the time. They were just undermanned/under talented/under-gunned/out-coached. It’s not a crime. The Ravens are blowing through all comers. And to no surprise, the Ravens blew through the Texans.

We don’t know how good or bad the Texans are because they’ve played the two best teams in football Weeks 1-2…the clear, beyond two best teams in football. Their crime is losing to both. They have a do-or-die game with Pittsburgh this week that I wouldn’t be surprised if they smoked the Steelers with their backs against the wall.

If Houston can get to (1-2), then a 9+ win season is very possible ahead and playoff hopes. If they dig an (0-3) hole, they are going to have to work to get to 9 wins/the playoffs. Huge game here.

Baltimore can go all-in Week 3 vs. KC…they have at WAS, CIN, at PHI the following three weeks. I have a feeling the Ravens are going to put on a show vs. KC, but KC also doing showtime as well. It’s going to be an epic game of the two best teams in football…again…with no one else in the discussion.

Fantasy Player Notes…

-- If you got Jordan Akins (7-55-0/7) last week, ahead of this game, as we were hinting strongly at…you got a star FF TE in the making on your team. He looks fantastic. The best ‘out of nowhere’ TE that I have seen this season. Some TEs are up on a blip for the moment, a good game/play/matchup or even the QB choice (like C.J. Uzomah was blipping, but he’s not ‘good’, per se…or Mo Alie-Cox)…but Akins is for real. I would dare say he’s Deshaun Watson’s favorite receiver right now.

I think you can have some pretty nice PPR TE1 trust…a guy who will go 5+ catches every game and get 5-7 TDs on the season. He looks and is playing great.

-- You know who will be great? J.K. Dobbins (2-48-0, 1-13-0/1).

We’re all celebrating and chasing Joshua Kelley and Jonathan Taylor and D’Andre Swift and Clyde Edwards-Helaire or James Robinson for various reasons and most all of them warranted. JKD’s crime is he’s stuck on the Ravens’s roster/depth chart.

I’d argue Dobbins is the best-looking runner of the ball of the group – him and Taylor. Whenever Dobbins gets unleashed, which may not be until 2021, he might lead the league in rushing or just runs over 20+ yards. He’s a great fit in a great offense…once they give it over to him, which might happen in-season later..

-- Not the best-looking back this day…David Johnson (11-34-0, 2-16-0/4).

I watched every single run of his here, most of them I looked a 2nd-time in slow motion to see what he was seeing/missing or was it the blocking. I thought DJ, overall, did fine. He just had little space to run. He made a few ‘something out of nothing’ runs but also missed a few holes (maybe). He looks fine+ physically, power-wise, and nimble. I’m not concerned about him at all.

I’m am concerned about two things with DJ:

1) Don’t like the Steelers matchup at all. He’s DJ, so he could do something magical or fall into the end zone for a TD…but it’s a bad mix, on paper, for Houston’s run game vs. the #1 run defense in the league. If the Steelers watch this tape vs. BAL, they’ll copycat it and shut down the run game.

2) Deshaun Watson is not throwing to him on purpose at all. No set plays on screens from Bill O’Brien. I have no idea what the Texans could be thinking, except being blind to your own talent is a proud motto in the NFL.

Watson did have him open for an easy TD toss off a scramble but then Watson slipped on a banana peel and slid to the ground and threw the ball 10 feet short of an open-in-the-end-zone DJ – we got robbed of a DJ TD.

DJ also lined up outside as a WR one play and beat his safety deep, like he could every play if they looked at it, but Watson threw it five feet over his head…a missed 25+ yard pass easy. We had 10-11 points stolen from us by the FF gods that absolutely hate me right now. I’ll have my revenge…the real God will help me, no need to fear!

-- A quick note on each QB…

1) Deshaun Watson (25-36 for 275 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 5-17-0) looked a bit better on tape than my mind thought live. I mean that from a running standpoint…Watson had a little juice in his legs. It’s just the Ravens were just turned up to ‘11’ and the Texans were helpless to respond.

Kind of a do-or-die game Week 3 at PIT. I bet Watson runs a lot to try to save the season – when he feels urgency, he adds more running to his game. This could be a decent FF week on that front…or the PITT-D is too good, like Baltimore and it’s another dud. Hope and fear.

2) Lamar Jackson (18-24 204 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 16-54-0) didn’t have a huge game and thus people with him lost their fantasy game to other big QB performances. Lamar and Deshaun killed their owners Week 2…not only with their duds here but the fact so many other QBs are now rising up to do the same FF-thing (big running, decent passing) this whole season.

You thought Lamar was on a pedestal as a runner-thrower and then Watson was a step behind in the same way, but Cam Newton and Josh Allen are rolling better numbers as runner-passers so far. Their rise takes the value out of Lamar/Deshaun…Deshaun-Lamar are not in a class of their own, others are joining…it’s like the fed printing money and inflation ensues.

You need these guys running big because they aren’t typically passing for their FF stats. I fear Watson got paid and ultimately his urgency, in general, still seems down. Lamar is trying to get paid, so I think you’ll see his numbers pop ahead as he takes TDs and rush yards to try to get to the next $500M contract. He can’t afford for Cam to be a $500M less cost/same value version.

I’m really worried Deshaun is the lesser runner and lesser passer than Lamar, Kyler, Josh, and Cam…and then when Mahomes, Russ, Dak, Tannehill enter the discussion…it pushes Watson further down the chain of FF QBs. You might need a strong Plan B for Watson in case he’s a #10-15 QB this season…not #3-6.

-- Brandin Cooks (5-95-0/8) had a solid game for Houston, after a Week 1 dud. Will Fuller getting smoked by Ravens coverage pushed Cooks, and then Fuller checked out with injury (because that’s his norm).

I don’t think you can count on Cooks as any more than a random WR3-4…guys like Keelan, Gage, etc. are going to be as good.

Will Fuller is proving out to be nothing but a hoax. You can only work him in great matchups. Cooks is useful when Fuller gets tough matchups.

-- Three IDP notes…

1) BAL LB Tyus Bowser (3 tackles, 1.0 sacks, 2 QB hits) has a sack each game this year. He has nice pass rush skills and is playing a little more. Maybe he’s in for an 8+ sack season. His sack here was ‘lucky’.

2) J.J. Watt (2 tackles, 2 sacks) is ‘back’ in a sense…2.0 sacks this game (first two of the year) but note he has 5 QB hits so far this year…among the league leaders. He’s playing DT in various spots and that’s a nice mix up for him/offenses to contend with.

3) HOU CB Bradley Roby (2 tackles) is entering the shutdown corner conversation. Nice job with Tyreek Week 1 and Marquise Brown (5-42-0/6) here.

Week 3 – Who Roby chases is going to matter for FF Week 3…is it JuJu or Diontae? I think it will be JuJu but Roby will mix things up or not chase time-to-time to give a window to the opposing WR. You hope for your PIT WR that Roby is not chasing them.

Subsequently, whomever gets Vernon Hargreaves on them…a big winner. It might be Washington/Claypool…more Claypool.

Snap Counts of Interest:

56 = David Johnson

53 = Cooks

49 = Akins

24 = Fells

27 = Ingram

20 = Edwards

20 = Dobbins

: R.C. Fischer; FFM; 28 September 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 3 Game Analysis: Dolphins 31, Jags 13

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

When you think about Week 3…as a bettor/handicapper or for your fantasy teams…just note that Week 3 is a very big fork in the road/turning point/back against the wall kind of week for ‘down’ NFL teams.

When you look at two weeks of data and are sure ___ team sucks because they are (0-2) or ____ player sucks because they haven’t had a nice FF game yet and/or ____ player is now great (because he had a great week last week)…you’re apt to get burned chasing yesterdays low sample size news. This game was the epitome of that.

For two weeks the Jags had played really good football…beating a top Colts team and losing close to an undefeated, Final Four 2019 season team in Tennessee. The Jags were close to being (2-0) coming into this game. All the metrics/numbers I like were with the Jags, a solid 2020 start against good teams – now they are playing Week 3 at HOME on TNF against a Miami team that has scuffled around and looked downtrodden and were missing their top cover corner.

How could the Jags not come out and make a stand, make a statement, win this game?

The Jaguars were utterly humiliated by a team led by Myles Gaskin and patchwork secondary…at home, with fans.

How is it possible? It’s football. Things don’t go in a straight line. Guys who score a TD one week, tend not to the next week. Teams that look terrible last week, play inspired the next week. Week 3 is usually a spot where the radical happens. Seasons are not ‘over’…(0-2) teams can get right back into the game with a win. They’re so desperate not to go (0-3)/just win a game and get the monkey off their backs…they tend to rise up.

I don’t know that Miami played their best game more than Jacksonville crashed to earth. The Jags lost D.J. Chark before the game, which ended up one of the biggest keys to the game (because Chris Conley is the worst WR in the NFL) and then they lost two starting defenders in-game. Jacksonville was sluggish and predictable, and Miami played inspired, got a lead, and never let it go…not even close really.

Miami gets right back into the 2019 season. 10 days to let Byron Jones get back to the field. They’re a (1-2) team that are a game out of the wild card on Monday morning…with 14 weeks of season to go. Miami has a choppy but more favorable schedule ahead, especially now that Week 5 at SF isn’t as ominous as it would have been pre-all 49ers’ getting hurt.

If Miami can use some ‘home field’ magic (very tough place for road teams to come in and win), plus some scheduling grace – they can be (6-6) heading into a very tough final four games of the season. It’s hope, at least. Getting away from an (0-3) start and instead getting to (1-2) changes everything – for Miami, and for you (0-2) FF teams.

Jacksonville blew a great opportunity to get to (2-1) and gain respect. They fall to (1-2). They’ll be an up-and-down team all season and we are projecting them to finish with 4-5 wins tops.

Fantasy Player Notes…

-- Let’s talk about these WRs for Jacksonville…

1) Chris Conley (3-34-0/8) probably played the worst game of NFL WR I’ve seen in a long time…or at least in the last week or so. He literally looked like he’s never seen a football pass come his way and didn’t know what to do with this foreign object coming at him.

Hey, but at least Gardner Minshew (30-42 for 275 yards, 0 TDs/1 INT) identified the problem with Conley’s inability to catch a football and stopped throwing to him immediately.

https://youtu.be/P4qWJKXMWXw

…or, Gardner did what an idiot would do – keep throwing to Conley, and if he was doubled…no problem, still throw it. Go get it big guy! I’m sure the 8th time will be the charm.

Conley led all Jacksonville players with 8 targets. Why? I have no idea. Minshew betting on the Dolphins is the only explanation. There should be a congressional investigation.

I watched the tape, All-22, in slow-mo occasionally…there were other things open. I have no idea what Minshew was doing.

So, D.J. Chark gets 3 and 4 targets in his first two games, but ‘Dropsy the Clown’ gets 8 targets in his place? Seriously, this is making me re-think everything about Gardner Minshew. You can’t be that dumb.

2) Because Conley was the brilliant game plan, apparently, Keelan Cole (4-43-0/5) barely saw targets.

Now, all we did was watch Cole gracefully deal with a misfired 3rd-down pass and do a 180 in the air and catch the pass near the sidelines and then drop his feet in – the best play of the night. Who wants to try and target this guy more anyway? https://youtu.be/4JPGVdQtdYI

That was catch #1, all Cole did on catch #2: https://youtu.be/ZkjspFoJpcc

After he bailed the team out again with a brilliant 1st-down-making play…he never saw a catch/target again until junk time on the final drive of the game. How can a quarterback be so stupid?

We can make fun here, but don’t let it take away from the fact that Cole is a legit NFL WR. He was a top 20 WR for FF scoring going into this week/game. It’s not like he’s not seeing action. He’s a decent WR3, one of the better WRs in the game going totally under the radar.

This is an organization who thought Dede Westbrook was better than Keelan Cole, so the stupidity-complicity is organizational.

3) You thought Laviska Shenault (5-33-0/6, 1-1-0) would be in a good spot to prosper a little bit with Chark out, but all the ‘unique ways’ the Jags were using Shenault got thrown out the window as the offense cratered. Must have forgot that section of the playbook for this game.

All we’ve heard for weeks is how highly they drafted Shenault in order to use him as a swiss army knife player to run the ball and do unique things. He did nothing unique in this game. He was his least unique when the offense needed him the most. Not his fault.

Again, there may have been several coaches/players who bet on the Dolphins this game. It’s the only explanation that makes sense to throw to a guy (who was probably in on it too) who can’t catch, and also don’t throw to the guy catching everything (Cole), and ignoring/not using the unique stylings of the thing you can’t stop talking about how unique he is (Shenault).

This week, we’ll all bench Cole and Shenault…and they’ll explode with career games…

If I didn’t have enough to FF-worry about, now I have to worry this organization and QB not throwing the ball to Chark in the weeks to come…because they’re too stupid to do so.

-- The Jags did make sure to get the ball to their least electric option, James Robinson (11-46-0, 6-83-0/6) because there is one thing you can count on – when the head coach runs his mouth about this big, bold move he made to go with the UDFA RB he ‘discovered’ and cuts Leonard Fournette, and he then talks nonstop about how Robinson was so good it just made sense to dump Fournette – know then that Robinson is getting the ball all the time to justify the coach.

Nothing against Robinson, but he’s every generically good RB in the NFL…he’s not a game changer, franchise RB. However, Doug Marrone sold his soul to say that he is…so, he will not-not feed Robinson all he can to show you how smart he is for making the bold decision.

Only injury can stop Robinson now…only injury can take him away from his betrothed, Doug Marrone.

-- Preston Williams (2-7-1) caught a TD pass to save a truly terrible week/game from occurring. I love Williams as a talent, and he’s getting pushed around by top shutdown corners because teams don’t fear DeVante Parker (5-69-0/5), but this seems to be going nowhere fast for fantasy.

I noticed at the end of the game last week (Week 2), with the game up from grabs, Preston Williams was pulled from the game into the final drive. I thought he might be hurt. Well, here in Week 3…I saw a number of times he was not out there. Then I see he played just 57% of the snaps post-game – he’s being punished/sent a message whatever because of his poor play…but his poor play is more coming off the coverage he is getting (in my opinion).

I think Preston is sulking/mad/frustrated and Brian Flores is insane with player usage – it may be time to run from this to greener pastures until the smoke clears. As I wrote last week, the schedule is wobblily (for Preston specifically) ahead until past Weeks 9-10, so you can go try other things in redraft.

Williams may get it all together with coach’s discipline/tough love eventually, but I’m OK to try other things in redraft right now.

Brian Flores is pulling back on Williams, Jordan Howard, Mike Gesicki and Matt Breida and playing Myles Gaskin, Durham Smythe, and Isaiah Ford more. Totally illogical decisions with a huge difference in talent…but it doesn’t matter what we think or how I might see it clearly in scouting. It matters what Flores thinks.

-- Mike Gesicki (1-15-1/3) god of Week 2…1 catch Week 3. Maybe you faced Gesicki Week 2 and not Weeks 1 or 3…why are you going to beat your FF-self up over random things happening with your opponents player’s when you play them, especially if you’re (0-2), just based on a sample size of two games.

I have said to a few (0-2) people this week, without knowing, but guessing – you probably lost a game due to a bad lineup call and another to your opponent having some one-time amazing event happen (like a Gesicki Week 2). You can’t damn your team/season to hell after two weeks if you could’ve won a game with the players you have in the right lineup and took a loss from a smashing event by an opponent that all you can do is tip your cap to.

These things happen all season, just because they happened Weeks 1-2 it feels extra terrible. And then to make the terrible feeling go away, you panic deal and do crazy lineup things out of self-imposed pressure…and then send your team spiraling faster.

Sometimes you play against bad Gesicki, sometimes dumb luck has it you played him Week 2 and he smoked you.

-- Jags DE Josh Allen (2 tackles, 1 sack, 2 TFLs, 3 QB hits) must be over his nagging injury…he was impressive getting into the backfield this game. He’s going to be a 10-12+ sack guy this year. Possible sack leader in the NFL.

Snap Counts of Interest:

53 = Conley

50 = Cole

45 = Shenault

30 = C Thompson

30 = J Robinson

46 = Gaskin

11 = Breida

42 = Smythe

30 = Gesicki

24 = Shaheen

56 = DeVante

35 = Pr Williams

27 = Ford

08 = Grant

: R.C. Fischer; FFM; 25 September 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 2 Game Analysis: Cowboys 40, Falcons 39

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

There were so many bizarre moments in this game to discuss – the early fumbles, the onside kick, the play calling, decision-making. I could write a book, but no doubt that’s all been covered by now…and a lot of it not-fantasy relevant, but it was certainly a very entertaining game to watch.

I walk away thinking, quite simply – the Cowboys gave the Falcons three early fumbles and a 20-0 head start, and Atlanta couldn’t put them away. I’ll discuss why in a moment. It’s a lucky win by Dallas, but an earned win…but I’m not so sure it portends Dallas’s greatness…or the Falcons suckiness. Sometimes football games are just strange/delightful one-offs.

Atlanta can right the ship and eliminate this taste out of their mouths with a win over Chicago Week 3, and I think it’s a possible best bet – depending upon the ATL injury report. There could be too many issues that end up taking this from ‘bet’ to just ‘pick’ (and Julio Jones is only one piece of this). The Falcons are showing me signs of a decent team, but with some warts (we’ll get to). Don’t think they are patsies. If they get Julio healthy and beat Chicago this week, with their schedule, they could be a 4-5/5-4 team by their Week 10 bye. All their NO and TB games are lumped into Weeks 11-17.

Dallas is set for a run to the top of the NFC East, but that’s because they have no competition. If they beat Seattle this week, then they are going to walk with the division soon. If they lose to Seattle, they’ll have some work to do ahead to stay above .500 and flimsily take the division. Dallas is better than what I’m stating, but their injuries have dragged them down to more ‘question mark’ than ‘for sure’ thing. Damn lucky they are not (0-2) heading to (0-3) right now.

Had Dallas lost here, it’s entirely possible the NFC East would have been, after Week 3, Washington (1-2) and NYG-PHI-DAL (0-3).

Fantasy Player Notes…

-- Here’s the Falcons’ biggest problem… Todd Gurley (21-61-0). When Atlanta got way up and tried to run the ball/run clock…Gurley didn’t do them any favors.

When Gurley got the ball on 1st-down after halftime, his rush totals on those plays were…

1, -2, 5, 4, 6, and -2 yards…2.0 yards per carry.

But Dallas was probably playing them to run, though?

Non-Gurley (Smith/Hill) runs on 1st-down in the 2nd-half: 6 and 9 yards.

The ineffectiveness is one thing, but the play style is glaring…disinterest, non-urgent running. He’s not inspiring anyone with his effort/play. But ‘he’s Todd Gurley’, so everyone is suckered into his aura from 3-4 years ago.

On my new ‘bloated’ theory (bloated = beyond well-paid players not trying as hard anymore)…Gurley is extra bloated. Playing easy for an easy paycheck…it’s on the table as a concern, at least.

Ito Smith (5-20-0) and Brian Hill (3-14-0, 2-11-0/2) come in with much more urgency. Gurley averaged 3.8 yards per carry last year and is at 3.3 ypc today for 2020. His yards after contact is down to 1.5. Broken tackles through two games in 2020 = 0.

I think it’s possible that there is a Gurley issue ahead for FF owners.

-- Dallas has a major issue too…Jaylon Smith (14 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 PD) in pass coverage on TEs (or RBs). He’s such a stiff east-west runner that he gets torched by any type of athletic anything his way. Thus, Hayden Hurst (5-72-1/8) with a big game here.

Athletic/decent TEs against Dallas are a big green light for FF.

Missing Leighton Vander Esch, they’ve turned to Joe Thomas (12 tackles, 1 TFL) to fill-in at ILB and he played decently. He’s limited but plays his heart out.

-- Russell Gage (6-46-1/9) is going to keep working in this way all season, as long as Julio and Ridley are out there taking a lot of attention in coverage.

Gage isn’t great but he’s in a good spot – he’s established with Matt Ryan and he works hard. The Falcons could do better at the slot, but it’s too late now for 2020…he’s the guy. He’ll be a WR3 +/- all season in PPR.

Gage had a beautiful 30+ yard TD toss right into Julio’s hands – but he dropped it.

-- What’s up with Michael Gallup (2-58-0/5)? I don’t know. It’s easy to say he’s ‘forgotten’ because of CeeDee Lamb, but it may just be a blip to start the year – but I’d be a bit worried. I’d rather Gallup be in the slot but he’s working as an outside WR a lot now. He got great coverage on him vs. the Rams Week 1 and I thought Isaiah Oliver (5 tackles, 2 PDs) did a wonderful job on him here.

CeeDee Lamb (6-106-0/9) is working the slot and getting better opportunities, and he looks fine but I’ve not been blown away by anything he’s done.

Gallup should have his time soon. He’s a decent ‘buy low’ (real low, and now with too much urgency) because he’s about to be dropped in some 12-team leagues with a bad/weak performance Week 3. His price is very low right now. I’m not 100% sure he’s springing back to WR1.5, but I think it’s possible…and for the price (today) it’s a consideration. Dallas has a favorable passing schedule most of this season…that’s what he has in his favor.

-- The Falcons defense is showing me little sparks. I’m not using them with any confidence or investing in them for the future – just I’m watching and seeing a defense that’s not a total pushover.

Dak threw for a lot of prevent-ish defense yards but could only throw for 1 TD. Zeke only ran for 4.0 yards per carry. The fumbles from Dallas were not all from a slippery ball. Last week, Russell got them Week 1 but it was on screen passes…and Wilson also just torched Bill Belichick.

I think Atlanta is better than any of us think.

Something to watch for this week for betting or DST hail mary usage v. CHI…

If CB Kendall Sheffield is active, that’s a small plus for the secondary.

If Takk McKinley doesn’t play…I’m staying away from them as a sleeper DST and as a real bet.

If Dante Fowler is out WITH McKinley out AND no Sheffield…then the Bears/Trubisky might be the play.

Snap Counts of Interest:

75 = Cooper

75 = Gallup

68 = Lamb

08 = Noah Brown (looked good)

57 = Schultz

33 = Blake Bell

48 = Gurley

15 = Hill

11 = Ito

: R.C. Fischer; FFM; 25 September 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 2 Game Analysis: Seahawks 35, Patriots 30

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

I think Bill Belichick is a god among NFL head coaches in all of NFL history. I never want to bet against him or criticize him as if I know better than him (that prior statement allows me to now say what I want, completely the opposite of what I just proclaimed, recklessly and all).

I thought this was one of the worst game planned Patriots games I’ve seen in a long time. The Patriots have become ‘Cam save us’. I’ll get into a few more specifics in the next section, but I didn’t understand their defensive coverages or their offensive touches/rotations here…they just let Russell Wilson pretty much do whatever he wanted. I know Russ is cooking and he’s hard to stop, but you’d think Belichick would have some special sauce plan…nope. Rex Burkhead did play a lot though, if that helps. The Pats are going as far as Cam’s flirting with pick sixes will take them…sometimes he’s awesome, sometimes not.

Seattle, to me, is not as good as everyone thinks…but with Russell Wilson on fire – a lot of sins are covered. It’s a pretty bad defense in Seattle and no real run game. It’s all Russ, which you’d rather have ‘all Russ’ then ‘all Cam’ for the NFL – but Kansas City and Baltimore are way more balanced and dangerous. Not that Seattle won’t make a run, I just think they’re not as great as people think…they had every opportunity to run away with this game and were a telegraphed last play goal line stop of Cam away from being (1-1).

Seattle has a decent schedule set up ahead – DAL, at MIA, MIN. That could be three wins on the matchup, but Dallas this week is a lot like Seattle (hot offense, sloppy defense) and going to Miami is always trouble, and Minnesota should have Danielle Hunter back by then. Seattle should be (4-1) before their Week 6 bye, and then their conference games finally start.

New England played a sloppy/sluggish game vs. Miami Week 1 and won. They played an energetic/sloppy game Week 2 and lost. They’re in a good place to catch Las Vegas off that MNF game this week, but then go at KC Week 4, which they will get shredded. I think NE will be (3-2) going into their Week 6 bye…and I don’t know that they are definitely better than Buffalo for the AFC East title. But I’ll give NE grace…Belichick tends to play September as a feeling out process, and then they become lethal into October-November. A (3-2 or 3-3) start for NE is fine.

Fantasy Player Notes…

-- Let me talk about the QBs here…

The talented running QBs are destroying (in a good way) the NFL. It’s becoming too easy. Defenses don’t know what to do. If they pressure the QB races by them. If they sit back and watch/worry about the QB run, good passing mobile QBs will shred them that way. Thus, Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray for MVP…and Cam will be unable to hang with that higher end group over time.

Legalized holding in 2020 is offering more protection, advantage runner-passers. Both Russ and Cam are averaging over a nice 2.5 seconds of time in the pocket to throw.

One quick note on Russell Wilson (21-28 for 288 yards, 5 TDs/1 INT), that may mean nothing in 2020…

In 2019, Wilson was near the top of the FF PPG QB leaders after three weeks of the season. He had 7 TDs/0 INTs. He had run for 2 TDs. He logged a 300 and 400+ yard passing game.

However, from Week 4 on last season, he never threw for 300+ yards again all season. Six of his final 14 games were 0-1 TD passes in the game. He only ran for one other TD all season. In the playoffs he threw for 1 TD and 1 TD in his two games. He also fell from the top of the QB scoring to a solid #8 in PPG among QBs (4pts per pass TD)…behind Ryan Fitzpatrick and Ryan Tannehill, among others.

I’m not saying Russ is bad or a fall is coming – just keep in perspective hot starts aren’t usually hot every week to the finish. Whether a player or an entire fantasy team…things have to play out over time.

Cam Newton (30-44 for 397 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) looked as good passing the ball, most of this game, as I’ve seen him in a while. He has a ton of time and finds options within it. Also, Seattle’s trying to lay claim to the worst pass coverage in the NFL. They are #1 with a bullet in most passing yards allowed so far this season. Seattle-Dallas Week 3 is going to be an ‘over’ on the points and an epic shootout of teams unable to cover or pressure so far this season (and Dallas has been crushed with injuries).

Cam Newton looks like a guy trying to get a $100M+ contract, so he’s going to take all the TDs he can get…especially rushing. I am totally in on Cam for fantasy 4pts per pass TD.

-- Let’s talk about the WRs here on both sides. Important info…

NEW ENGLAND

Julian Edelman (8-179-0/11) looked fantastic in this game. Stunning. Cam-to-Edelman looks better than Brady-to-Edelman of the past few years. It may have been the Seattle defense…but wow are these two working well together. But, caution – Cam is usually a low volume passer, so Edelman may get catches but be erratic on yards/TDs. There could be a lot of 8-55-0 games coming, but also some 10-100+ games too. I’m ‘in’.

This is important…N’Keal Harry (8-72-0/12) looks terrible to me. I mean…I think I see a bust. Imagine if Davante Parker wasn’t as good an athlete…that’s Harry. He plays S-A-W-F-T. I can see it a mile away. He plays confused and scared. He has some talent. He can hang in the NFL, but future star – I’d bet against it hard, and I’d sell this week right here, right now.

Can he turn it around? Yes, but when I watch all the young and current rookie WRs over and over and see their movements and tendencies – Harry stands out as something is wrong. Too slow a foot, too much of his hand extended out, trying to pattycake push (not aggressively stiff arm) people away, too easy to tackle.

Because Harry is a SAWFT bust and because Julian Edelman is going to get a lot of attention and because the Pats have no threat at TE and because Damiere Byrd (6-72-0/9) has history with Cam and he is a pro WR, it’s Damiere Byrd as the sneaky #2 WR here for fantasy. In good matchups for Cam, Byrd is going to outperform Harry over time. He’s the WR to watch in all of this as a useful WR3/flex to work with here and there. Not a star, but just a useful name in a pinch in a good matchup.

Damiere Byrd is going to beat cheating-up-too-much/looking-run-too-much CB Damon Arnette for a deep ball play at least once Week 3…the question will be, can Cam get it to him.

SEATTLE

I was sure Belichick was going to double Tyler Lockett (7-67-1/8) and play off/give space to D.K. Metcalf (4-92-1/6) and force him to him to work short instead of his constant deep ball routes.

Well, watching this game. I see Lockett covered by linebackers a bunch and basically allowed to roam free…thus his good game. Then I see Stephon Gillmore pressing up on Metcalf and then getting boat raced deep by him.

When will the NFL learn what SEC CBs knew? Metcalf is going deep every play. He literally does whatever at first off the snap and then he ends up sprinting deep. There is no reason to worry about his stutter step or fake to the inside…assume he’s going deep every time like you’re playing him as if you Marty McFly -- and you know history before it happens. DKM is a Greek god of a physique, so why do you think you can jam him off the snap and he won’t swat you away and then out-run you in a sprint from there? Just play back and start backpedaling before the snap, and force him into underneath routes that he drops constantly…or go back into centerfield waiting for him to run deep to you…he will. Nope…Gillmore right up in his face and Metcalf blowing right past him.

The Patriots earned this loss, this air raid on themselves. I’m really starting to wonder if the Pats defense was ever near as good as anyone thought because of that hot 1st-half last year? I mean, when they aren’t facing the Jets-Dolphins-Bills…it’s not been that special, no?

-- Rookie SAF Kyle Dugger (6 tackles) played 11 snaps Week 1 with no stats but jumped to 54% of the snaps here and had a solid showing. He’s a talent and might be about to ‘start’ for the Pats in weeks to come.

-- The NE-DST…

Weeks 1-8 of 2019: 22.6 FF PPG (FPros system) and the #1 FF DST by a mile

Weeks 9-17 of 2019 (when the schedule turned away from easy): 6.9 FF PPG and was the #14 FF DST.

The 2020 schedule isn’t cupcake like it was last season. Week 5 v. DEN, Week 9 v. NYJ look good, but not so hot all the other weeks in fantasy. I’m not very excited by this DST play in 2019.

Snap Counts of Interest:

45 = Olsen

31 = Dissly

40 = Carson

15 = Hyde

62 = Byrd

61 = Harry

52 = Edelman

51= Burkhead

15 = Michel

: R.C. Fischer; FFM; 25 September 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 2 Game Analysis: Packers 42, Lions 21

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

What’s there to say here? The Packers did Packers things and won easily. And the Lions did Lions things and lost…again. Nothing special happened – both teams were who we all thought they were.

Green Bay gets more of a test against the Saints Week 3. The schedule ahead is pretty easy after Week 3. They may have 1-2 games max. with 2020 playoff teams from Week 4 on. Green Bay is going to be in great shape to get a #1 seed as the NFC North crumbles around them.

As far as the Lions go…it’s the ‘waiting to fire Matt Patricia’ season. The GM is tied to Patricia, so there will not be a chance it happens in-season, most likely. Both HC and GM will be gone after the season unless a pure miracle happens.

Fantasy Player Notes…

-- The two WRs of FFM interest…

1) Marvin Jones (4-23-1/6) got covered by Jaire Alexander because Kenny Golladay was out again. Jones draws top coverage with KG out. The return of Golladay is a big help for Jones to be a steady WR2.

A very good schedule ahead…seven of their next 9 games are in a dome. Not in a dome…at JAX and at CAR.

Hold steady on Jones for the KG return, hopefully this week.

2) Allen Lazard (3-45-0/5)…I get the feeling you’re giving up on him. I think that’s a mistake. First off, Allen Lazard is like a faster, more athletic Mike Evans…and he’s still coming into his own.

His two missed targets…two near 20+ yard big plays, one a near TD. He also lost another play on a defensive P.I.

He’s got all the makings of a star…I know he’s in the shadow of Davante Adams, but it means he is getting lesser coverage and is open quite a bit. I see his usage, and the importance of the way he’s used, ticking up ever so slightly each week. On a big 4th & 6 early in the game from midfield, Rodgers whistled a bullet in the middle to a heavily covered, diving Lazard who made the catch and 1st-down.

This week, if Adams can play…and Marshon Lattimore blankets Adams – it might be the first 2020 breakout for Lazard. If Adams is out…then Lazard draws Lattimore and that’s a problem.

-- Nothing more I can say about Aaron Jones (18-168-2, 4-68-1/8)…he can’t stop scoring TDs. I didn’t think he’d repeat his 2019, but he is so far. If you’d like…I’ll endorse him, you can trade your whole team for him, and then he’ll tear his ACL soon after I get on-board.

A.J. Dillon (5-17-0) is a million miles away at this point. He does mop up work in blowouts.

Anyways, I love Aaron Jones. Always have. He’s the best player in fantasy football. You should get him fast.

…hopefully you’re playing against him this week, and don’t own him for the hex I just put on him.

-- D’Andre Swift (5-12-0, 5-60-0/5) looked a little more settled in this game. He was nervous/anxious Week 1. Much more under control, normal here. He’s become Theo Riddick in this scuffling offense. He’s going to have games like this every week…low rushing…sweet receiving…limited TDs.

If the Lions ever get ahead in a game, perish the thought, they will bang it with AP and Kerryon…and Swift will have a lesser Theo Riddick week.

You’re going to need a coaching change to get Swift to another level of offensive play/usage.

-- Couple of IDP notes…

DET CB Jeff Okudah (7 tackles) debuted and was somewhere between OK and lost…but he’s a rookie in a debut against Aaron Rodgers and friends. Can’t fully judge him just yet, but he’s not C.J. Henderson.

I knew there was an issue with Matt Patricia and Tracy Walker (2 tackles, 2 PDs) back in the preseason…where Patricia was running him a bunch with the 2nd-team. I think there is an issue for sure. Walker played just 53% of the snaps this game. The IDP star of 2019 is in trouble in 2020.

I saw ‘word’ that they are working a ‘platoon’ with Walker and Will Harris, in the media this week. Walker can be dropped for greener pastures if you still own him.

GB DE Rashan Gary (4 tackles, 1.5 sacks) is one of the great wasted talents in football, in my mind. All the tools in the world but always underperforms/doesn’t care…kinda like Jadeveon Clowney. Anyway, Gary may have quietly turned a corner…he played 56% of the snaps this game (and 62% last game). He got two QB hits this week, but also two last week. Not a one-week blip apparently.

If Gary is going to show up, then Green bay just had an ‘A’ pass rusher fall out of the sky for them.

Snap Counts of Interest:

61 = Lazard

46 = MVS

38 = Adams

35 = A Jones

31 = J Williams

28 = T Ervin

07 = Dillon

53 = Marvin

39 = Cephus

33 = Amendola

17 = M Hall

20 = Swift

19 = Kerryon

15 = AP

: R.C. Fischer; FFM; 25 September 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 2 Game Analysis: Raiders 34, Saints 24

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

I hope I can save some typing off my fingers with this one…it shouldn’t take too long to review.

Alvin Kamara faced Darren Waller in the Week 2 MNF game, and Waller won. Good night. Thanks for coming.

Two head coaching geniuses, long time football minds…and all they got is every play to Jacobs/Waller v. every play to Kamara/Thomas. Only Thomas was out so the Jacobs/Waller side won. The Saints never adjusted to the Waller onslaught and got beat. Good thing the Saints kept their top corner on WRs that the Raiders never throw to in 2020.

The Raiders are a playoff team. A team no one is going to want to play. Not the best team or a title team, but a good team. Jon Gruden is doing a very good job. Difficult schedule ahead (at NE, BUF, at KC next 3 weeks) but Vegas should be in the wild card hunt all season (and get one).

The Saints are good but fading. I think they may have peaked and are in decline. Still good but by the time we get to 2021, I don’t know that they’ll have the juice to get over the hump. This is their last stand/gasp season with Drew Brees. They are going to fight the Bucs all the way to the end for the NFC South title. If the Saints lose to Green Bay this week…some panic might start to set in.

Fantasy Player Notes…

-- I already stated the obvious…everything for FF with these two teams is Jacobs/Waller and Kamara/Thomas. Not much else to discuss at the other positions.

If Josh Jacobs (27-88-0, 3-17-0/3) is out this week…Devontae Booker (3-0-0, 1-6-0/1) would split with Jalen Richard (2-26-1)…and it wouldn’t be that excited on either, but it’s something if in need. Booker could grind a decent day with 15+ carries. I think Jacobs is just getting extra rest on a short week.

-- The Raiders will not throw to their WRs unless they absolutely have to, and they hope never to do so apparently, so for that reason…’I’m out’ on Bryan Edwards (2-42-0/2) for redraft 2020. He will have his day to come and become a ‘playa’ but not right now.

He led all non-Waller Raiders in targets in this game…that’s good news, with the bad news being he had just 2 targets.

However, you did see a glimpse of what he brings to the table on his second catch and run play. He doesn’t look ready for a big role yet, he looked surprised when the ball comes his way, because likely they never throw to WRs in practice either. Someday…not today.

Ditto opinion on Henry Ruggs.

-- Rookie TE Adam Trautman (1-17-0/1) got his first catch of his career. I watched his play over a few times – he just looks so stiff moving around the field. I just get a bad feeling on him.

-- Tre’Quan Smith (5-86-0/7) is good for the moment but he’ll disappear when Michael Thomas returns. Brees never works the 2nd (or 3rd-4th-5th) WR all that well for FF. Smith saw more action with Thomas out. With Brees’s arm strength in decline…Tre’Quan being a deep ball receiver…not a good match at this time. Sell him hot when you can.

-- The Raiders-DST is interesting…

A lot of talent accumulating, and man do they have some punishing hitters in the secondary. This might be an emerging DST in 2021, but maybe useful on good matchups this year – like Weeks 8-9-10 CLE-LAC-DEN.

Their current problem is that some of their DBs are so wanting to hit people, they cheat up off the snap and they’re going to get beat deep by a nice deep ball thrower. Mahomes-Hill may go for 500 yards each against them Week 5.

SAF Jonathan Abram (4 tackles, 1 PD) is literally going to kill someone one of these days. Every tackle he makes is accidental homicide potential.

The guy who stuck WAY out to me in this game…rookie CB Damon Arnette (7 tackles). He plays corner like a Pro Bowl safety already (he tackles everything in sight, with impunity)…but he also covers like a safety mentality as well. If Drew Brees had his old magic back, he would have air raided Arnette’s constant cheating up, and up in WR’s faces and getting pushed away off the snap too much and losing 2-3 steps in coverage every other time because he’s trying to fight the WR up close. I bet Belichick notices it for Week 3…which means Damiere Byrd is going to cash in on a long TD this week…if I’m right.

Where has Maxx Crosby (2 tackles, 1 PD) been? Slow start for him after a hot finish last year. Teams know who he is now…they’re also holding every pass rusher every other play these days because holding got legalized in the offseason in case you missed it. Some teams haven’t even been called for holding yet this year, I heard somewhere this morning. Seriously.

-- I thought the Saints-DST was supposed to be so special? Well, they got it handed to them this game. They are good but never adjusted for Darren Waller and got thumped by it. Versus Green Bay this week? I don’t know…if Davante Adams is ready then this looks shaky too.

The Saints-DST perks up Weeks 7-8 with matchups vs. CAR and at CHI…but mostly they have so-so or bad matchups all season.

-- Daniel Carlson (2/2 FGs, 4/4 XPs) dropped a 54-yard bomb in this game…his second 50+ yard FG this season already. I loved this kicker coming out of college. He might be finally coming into his own. He has ‘best kicker in the NFL’ type traits, I think. Whether it happens this year, we’ll see. He’s #3 in FF PK scoring right now.

Snap Counts of Interest:

49 = Ruggs

49 = Edwards

40 = Renfrow

32 = Moreau

26 = Witten

18 = Zay Jones

41 = Kamara

16 = Latavius

: R.C. Fischer; FFM; 25 September 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 2 Game Analysis: Chiefs 23, Chargers 20

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

The Chargers played a perfect underdog, unorthodox role of a game here to try and outlast /rope-a-dope the Chiefs. It almost worked, but one thing you can always bet on – Anthony Lynn will find a way to ruin anything. Possibly the single worst head coach in the NFL. He may be a gem of a human and smart as a whip, I have no idea. I just watch his teams, his coaching decisions, and his press conferences and he’s so self-assured of his absolutely lunacy that it’s breathtaking to behold.

Adam Gase is getting a reprieve as the worst coach in the NFL the more Anthony Lynn says words to the media. Check out his answer to the question presented when this video opens up: https://youtu.be/g4PmgymlCoo?t=104

Way to pump up your QB who almost pulled off a miracle win over the defending champs!!! Anthony Lynn was PAINED to say something nice or even neutral about Justin Herbert. He was gritting his teeth and trying to find neutral niceties to move on from the subject. However, when he talks about Tyrod Taylor, he beams with pride…and you’re not allowed to question it.

No one could watch Tyrod Taylor and Justin Herbert play football and seriously choose Tyrod Taylor. Not only did Lynn do that – he’ll go back to Tyrod even if the Chargers win 2-3-4-5 games in a row with Herbert. This team, this offense is 100x better with Herbert, rookie and all. You cannot go with Tyrod Taylor and be a serious football mind. It’s not the 1980’s and 1990’s…rookie QBs aren’t the screw up of the time Anthony Lynn played football. Get the hell with the times, man!!!

Anthony Lynn will absolutely go with Tyrod Taylor the moment he can, and the more people complain about it…the more he will do it because you’re not going to tell him what to do, you’re an idiot.

…and if you don’t think he’s capable of doing the same jamming Justin Jackson back in over Joshua Kelley – then you are the idiot he thinks you are. You don’t understand football like he does.

The early voting for NFL MVP through two weeks…

#3) Kyler Murray

#2) Russell Wilson

#1) The Chargers team doctor

That’s callous, but football-wise…it’s truth. Tyrod Taylor looked awful against the vaunted defense of the Cincinnati Bengals. He was the worst QB that I saw on tape Week 1. He’s a joke in today’s era. Dwayne Haskins has more appeal. Not throwing interceptions is nice but it doesn’t mean you’re a great QB if you do nothing else but NOT throw INTs.

If I were Justin Jackson, I wouldn’t get near the trainer’s room…the team doc isn’t playing around. He knows who needs to be playing and who doesn’t, apparently.

Anthony Lynn better have a wine taster at his disposal at all team meals.

The Chargers could be (2-0) right now. Really, they should be (0-2). They should’ve lost to the Bengals...it was a fluke/weak win. Don’t be so sure Lynn won’t lose to Carolina this week. LAC should beat CAR and then go on to lose two in a row at TB, at NO. They’ll be (2-3) and likely on their way to (8-8) at best the way their schedule looks.

Another week in 2020, and another game the Chiefs mail in. Fortunately, they woke up and got serious when they started losing control of the game in the 4th-quarter. We’ll see if the Chiefs decide to play a game seriously from kickoff on against the Ravens this week. The Ravens ain’t the Chargers…Baltimore will beat the brakes off the Chiefs if they lollygag into this one. At Baltimore on a Monday Night, I suspect the Chiefs will come out to play.

Fantasy Player Notes…

-- The shocking debut of Justin Herbert (22-33 for 311 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 4-18-1) happened. No one saw it coming. At first, no one knew why. Tony Romo spent the first 5-10 minutes talking about the savvy of Anthony Lynn and him not being afraid to make bold moves, etc. – only to find out Tyrod was hurt last second was the reason.

Herbert looked so unfazed in his debut. Today’s rookies think the NFL is child’s play. The talented rookies do…that is. Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert already look like long time starters in their first game. This rookie QB wave of nice performance is going to push Tua Tagovailoa in as a starter ASAP – but I’m not sure Tua is near as ready or as talented as Burrow-Herbert. I very much think he is not, and the mainstream football media/scouting community is going to take a slap in the face on it. Tua was their unquestioned top guy at QB all along.

Herbert is decent for fantasy, but has some upside capped in an Anthony Lynn offense. Herbert probably fully can’t get unleashed until Lynn is gone, and that probably won’t happen for years. A bad fit/pairing of these two…unless Lynn is willing to change.

The only change Lynn wants is to change Herbert out for Tyrod Taylor.

-- With Herbert starting…

Keenan Allen (7-96-0/10) goes back to being a top 15-20 WR for fantasy.

Hunter Henry (6-83-0/8) is viable as a TE1.

Mike Williams (2-14-0/4) drops way down because Herbert doesn’t have to force things to him when he’s never open. Herbert will find what’s open and not just panic and float balloons to Williams like Tyrod.

Reverse all these statements when/if Tyrod returns.

-- Josh Kelley (23-64-0, 2-49-0/3) got a lot of carries this game… Anytime a fantasy GM sees 20+ carries, their heart skips a beat. Actually, it’s 20+ carries and ‘is a rookie’ that sends heart’s a flutter -- because Frank Gore had about this same game/stat line this week and no one cared.

Anthony Lynn is going to start/use/split two running backs. He tells us this all the time, any chance he gets. Austin Ekeler (16-93-0, 4-55-0/4) is his guy and Kelley is there as ‘1b’, for now.

If Ekeler goes down, Justin Jackson will split with Kelley in some way.

Most games it will be a 60/40 split with Ekeler-Kelley, with a commitment to stick to the run no matter what. Kelley will be 10-15 carries and 0-4 targets a game with Herbert…and 10-15 carries with 0-2 targets per game with Tyrod, as long as Ekeler is there.

There will be more running room for the RBs with Herbert at QB, because teams do not fear Tyrod…and thus crowd up on the run game.

There will be more targets to the RBs with Herbert, because Herbert knows how to play QB…Tyrod looks to float balloons downfield or scramble or throw passes blindly into crowds. He looks at one receiver and throws, and it’s normally not any check downs because Tyrod doesn’t have time to check down because he treats the ball as a hot potato to get rid of to a predetermined receiver before the snap.

Your Kelley value is safe with Herbert, but it’s limited most weeks. RB2 with some RB1 and RB3 weeks. His value drops with Tyrod to RB2-3 more times than not.

-- What’s funny about watching Kelley in this game and Clyde Edwards-Helaire (10-38-0, 6-32-0/8) is you couldn’t tell which one was better…both look very similarly good. But one was drafted in the 1st-round because he was seen on TV a lot. The other drafted 4th-round because ‘who watches PAC 12 football anyway?’

Great scouting logic and study again by the NFL.

-- Would I bench Mahomes-Tyreek against the Ravens this week? Probably not. I don’t ever bench Tyreek.

Patrick Mahomes (24-47 for 302 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT, 6-54-0)…I would consider if I had the right 2nd QB in the right matchup. But mostly, you can’t sit Mahomes unless a 4pts pass TD only QB scoring league. Then you can get friskier in a matchup where the Ravens defense is very good + their offense could hold the ball for 40 minutes and be a repeat pattern of this LAC game.

-- I was watching Chiefs rookie DE Michael Danna (3 tackles, 1 sack) work in this game…he’s a pretty solid rookie getting decent playing time right off the bat. About 50% of the snaps played. I don’t know that he’s a star, but he’s out of the gates pretty well for a rookie.

On the subject of KC DLs…Tanoh Kpassagnon (4 tackles, 1 PD), the extra tall D-End, played 94% of the snaps in this game. 83% last week…that’s pretty radical for a defensive end who is usually rotational. No big numbers yet, but he’s playing a lot.

-- How good (or not) is the Chargers’ defense?

#5 in points allowed (and having just played/handled KC pretty well)

#11 best in yards per play allowed.

#9 in QB hits.

Middle of the pack in run defense, sacks, 3rd-down % allowed.

Two legit top cover corners. A legit linebacker in the middle now. Good D-Line. It’s a good unit overall.

Facing Teddy this week is going to be favorable.

At TB, at NO could be shaky, or could be not-so-bad. Brady and Brees aren’t going to like this pressure. Not a great Weeks 4-5 play but do-able. Then Weeks 6-7 with NYJ-MIA is great if you can get to it.

Snap Counts of Interest:

47 = Ekeler

43 = Kelley

48 = Edwards-Helaire

15 = D Thompson

10 = D Williams

2024 Game Report/Fantasy Scouting (Wk11): Rams 28, Patriots 22

2024 Game Report/Fantasy Scouting (Wk11): Bills 30, Chiefs 21

2024 Game Report/Fantasy Scouting (Wk11): Dolphins 34, Raiders 19

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 3: Game Analysis: Seahawks 38, Cowboys 31

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 3: Game Analysis: Bills 35, Rams 32

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 3: Game Analysis: Titans 31, Vikings 30

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 2 Game Analysis: Ravens 33, Texans 16

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 3 Game Analysis: Dolphins 31, Jags 13

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 2 Game Analysis: Cowboys 40, Falcons 39

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 2 Game Analysis: Seahawks 35, Patriots 30

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 2 Game Analysis: Packers 42, Lions 21

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 2 Game Analysis: Raiders 34, Saints 24

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 2 Game Analysis: Chiefs 23, Chargers 20