A Fantasy and Handicapping look at the 2022-23 Conference Title Round Playoffs
Taking a look at each of the 2022-23 Conference Title Round playoff games from a straight up win/loss perspective, an ATS perspective and then looking at some DFS and prop betting options.
The Computer picks and the group expert picks will be out today as well.
San Francisco at Philadelphia (-2.5)
I assume that the Eagles defense will do what Seattle and Dallas did so successfully most of their playoff games with SF -- stack the run and force Brock Purdy to beat them.
I will also think/assume that the 49ers will do exactly what they’ve done to start out the two playoff games -- try and establish the run early…despite the obvious over stack against them running. The only person/thing that doesn’t believe in Brock Purdy more than opposing NFL defenses the past 7+ weeks is Kyle Shanahan.
SF has frittered around trying to establish the run early, failed at it mostly, thus went in 2nd and 3rd & longs, which kept the games kinda close until SF had to change, unleash Purdy, and then Purdy started making things happen enough that the defensive will was broken and then the 49ers started gashing the opposing defenses to run out the game. They were able to do that against Seattle and Dallas…won’t be as easy to pull those same stunts, to have Purdy convert a lot of 2nd and 3rd & longs to keep SF in it.
I’m worried SF will play right into Philly’s hands…and Philly, on the other hand, has been so good attacking the opponent’s weakness and avoiding their strength -- that Jalen Hurts will take to the sky right away and put SF in a hole they might not be able to dig out of like they have the past two games.
If it all plays out this way, then…
Jalen Hurts is going to lead the way with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, through the air…the run game will be semi abandoned, and Hurts will likely lead the team in rushing.
Brock Purdy will be under the gun more than he’s been before, facing the toughest defense he’s seen in a huge spot.
I think the Eagles are in a spot to win this game because SF will hand them an early advantage by playing right into their hands. I think Philly wins, but I’m not sure I wanna lay -2.5 points…in a ‘shoulder shrug’ game of two good teams, where anything can happen, as a bettor, I usually just take the points. But Philly just keeps standing out to me here.
From a Fantasy/DFS/Prop perspective…
If Jalen Hurts is taking to the sky heavily, then I want in on the passing OVER props…
OVER 247.5 yards (FD) -114
OVER 1.5 passing TDs (FD) +110
I might be tempted into a fun bet of the alternative line on Hurts at 300+ yards OVER at +310 (FD)
From my subscriber only daily handicapping streaming notes from Wednesday night, I posted…
Jalen Hurts (16-24 for 154 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT, 9-34-1) mowed right through the healthy Giants defense with nary a concern.
A big test for Hurts this week with SF…because you can’t run on them, but you can throw on them -- they need to come out firing.
Hurts has faced two top 10 run defenses this season (#1 TEN, #9 PIT), he has thrown for 332.5 yards and 3.5 TDs/0 INTs per game in the two. Wow.
Expanding, when Hurts has faced a top 12 run defense, so the two above and WSH twice, Hurts has averaged: 295.0 yards, 3.0 TDs/.25 INTs per game.
Hurts/Sirianni has attacked an opponent’s weakness hard all season.
So, shouldn’t we jump on Hurts OVER 247.5 yards (-114) on FD, and OVER 1.5 TD passes (+110)?
Hurts has to be your rock steady DFS…but Andrew DFS likes Purdy for the DFS pricing, and national disbelief.
We like the sneaky Quez Watkins OVER 15.5 yards +102 and OVER 1.5 receptions +106…a deep sleeper DFS option as well to be a Rashid Shaheed (one big play) moment. Kenneth Gainwell isn’t bad at OVER 1.5 catches -102 and OVER 9.5 yards and -114 all on FD.
If SF is to win, I think it will be a HEAVY dose of Deebo as a runner and short game receiver (to keep him away from their corners a lot of the time). If that’s correct, then I like the OVER props on Deebo…
OVER 49.5 rec. yds (DK) -115 vs. 51.5 yds (FD) -114
OVER 4.5 receptions (DK) -115
Deebo has no rush props on FD or DK, or I would likely take them
Cincinnati at Kansas City (-1.5)
I’m all-in on the Bengals.
As much as I love Cincy as the best team in football, two years running -- I wasn’t sure if they could slip past Buffalo in the snow with a wounded O-Line. Well, they went out and dominated the Bills. The Bengals are straight up better than KC, so I love the bet as it is -- but then with Mahomes with a bad wheel, I love it even more.
I think Mahomes will be hampered a little bit…and could re-injure it in-game and totally throw this game flow into flux. I think he plays safe, tries not to get hit, throws short a bunch and it’s not the dynamic KC offense we’re used to…as the Bengals go and do what they do and put-up 25+ on KC for the win.
The Bengals have a good defense that will hold up against reeled in Mahomes. The Bengals will try to establish the run but should be fairly balanced against a KC defense that has disappointed, not gotten better, as the season has gone on. -- now, they are facing an elite QB…and their own elite QB won’t be holding possession or scoring as much to protect them.
From a Fantasy/DFS/Prop perspective…
I don’t love any of the props here because this game could change so radically if Mahomes goes down…or is just limping a lot and is off.
I have been betting Mahomes ‘under’ passing yards a little more each day as they rose higher and higher. UNDER 285.5 FD at -114, DK at -105
Jerick McKinnon is probably gonna be in the game a lot, as Mahomes’ protector…but maybe is in blocking too much and not getting some of the juicy numbers he’s tended to get lately.
We’re having fun with small bets on Noah Gray OVER 13.5 yds -102, and like the OVER 1.5 catches at +116 as a possible over naturally, but more a hedge on Travis Kelce maybe not being 100% with his late week injury report appearance.
Good luck, however it is you are playing the playoff games this week!
