R.C. Fischer

FFM

16 September 2020

2020 Week 1 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis: Saints 34, Bucs 23

 

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

 

This was the opposite of the subdued TNF opener of KC v. HOU…these two teams, TB-NO, went AT each other full scale like a playoff game. Both sides were playing with fire. Credit the Saints with rising to the occasion, taking the first punch from Tom Brady…and then TKO-ing the Bucs from there. The Bucs tried to claw back in the 2nd-half, but the Saints pushed them back and ran away in the end.

Good effort by both teams. The Saints are just more cohesive right now. Tampa may gel in a few weeks, but the Saints were the bullies in this one.

The Saints face Las Vegas Week 2, at the debut of the Raiders’ new stadium…without Michael Thomas and maybe without Janoris Jenkins. Then Week 3 vs. GB possibly without them aw well. Tough sledding ahead for NO.

The Tampa Bay easier schedule starts to kick in now…CAR, at DEN, KAC, at CHI the next four weeks.

 

Fantasy Player Notes…

 

 -- Part III of the Ronald Jones (17-66-0, 2-16-0/3) v. Leonard Fournette (5-5-0, 1-14-0/1) debate…

(1.0) After the live watch, I thought Jones looked fantastic and Fournette pretty terrible by comparison.

(2.0) After a rewatch of just the two of them…I was still impressed with Jones, and thought Fournette was not great but better than my initial/live reaction.

(3.0) After a full game rewatch, I still think Jones looked terrific and I thought Fournette was a ‘C’ or ‘incomplete’…not as bad as my 1.0 and 2.0 reactions. I’ve gone from ‘F’ to ‘D’ to ‘C’ on judging Fournette’s few touches here. Jones was an A-/B+ every time.

This is a good week to get Jones if you have Fournette. Many people are waiting for a Fournette takeover (that is not coming easily…or at all) so they are willing to sell after a so-so FF Week 1 from RoJo.

This may wind up a 60/40 type backfield eventually, but Jones has full command right now. But Fournette is not just going to sit there either.

 

 -- OK, enough with the TB backfield…let’s talk Tom Brady (23-36 for 239 yards, 2 TDs/2 INTs.

I thought he looked fine. He lost about 50-75+ yards in defensive P.I.s that might have been catches. He looked solid, better than I expected and better when I rewatched it.

 

 -- The TB WR report…

Mike Evans (1-2-1/4) constantly gets owned by Marshon Lattimore, so thus this low output game…but also keep in mind Evans lost two catches for 50+ yards on Lattimore PI-ing him on opportunities. Better days ahead for Evans. He’s a buy low this week if possible.

Chris Godwin (6-79-0/6) just doesn’t feel like 2019 Godwin, as I feared…different role/usage/vibe with Brady v. Winston, which is logical. He’s fine but not a strong WR1.

Scotty Miller (5-73-0/6) really looked solid on this rewatch. He has a good connection with Brady and plays a role Brady likes better anyway. I thought Miller was going to be erratically ‘OK’ week-to-week, but I think he’s a legit WR3 with some WR2-2.5 potential with Brady.

 

 -- The TB TE report…

Gronk (2-11-0/3) looks very old and not agile/flexible…very stiff. Still viable/a TD option but no big upside I don’t believe. He’ll have a 2 TD game ahead and everyone will swoon…

O.J. Howard (4-36-1/6) was not a desired target on purpose. Got a bunch of late targets when the game was all but lost. His game is more hoax than not.

 

 -- Maybe it’s me, but Drew Brees (18-30 for 160 yards, 2 TDs/ 0 INT) does not look like ‘good old/great Drew Brees’. He looks like he is shot-putting his passes a bit. Not the same grip it and rip it throws of the past. I don’t know if it matters much in the end, he’s still playing at a high level, but Brady looks like he did years ago but Brees didn’t…in a snap-shot judgement.

Brees is still playing well, but that high volume big stat guy seems to be fading…and with no Michael Thomas ahead, I wonder if he’ll struggle.

 

 -- What will happen without Michael Thomas (3-17-0/5) for a few weeks?

Tre’Quan Smith (1-4-0/1) had the most WR snaps aside from Thomas, but that was good for his usual 1 target in a game. Brees doesn’t seem to be dying to get Smith the ball…ever. But every once in a while Smith pops…he might Week 2.

Emmanuel Sanders (3-15-1/5) also is looking his age and he was nothing special here. Not sure Sanders-Brees is going to be as good, without Thomas, as people think.

I’m guessing Brees will work Kamara-Murray-Cook-Taysom more until Thomas returns.

Latavius Murray (15-48-0, 0-0-0/1) might be a surprise winner in more touches, so as not to overdo Alvin Kamara (12-16-1, 5-51-1/8) and his back issues.

 

 -- One of the reasons Michael Thomas had a dud FF game is Carlton Davis is a top 5-10 NFL shutdown corner…Bruce Arians said it this preseason, and he wasn’t lying. He may have undersold it. Carlton Davis is coming for your #1 WRs in matchups so beware – Robby Anderson likely wiped out this week and then Courtland Sutton may return just in time to get into a war with Davis.

 

 -- The Saints have their own shutdown corner in Marshon Lattimore, but with Janoris Jenkins (9 tackles, 1 PD) playing at a high level again…this Saints defense is stout again. However, Jenkins suffered a concussion in this game…we’ll see his status in a few days.

The Saints have a top defensive unit emerging, but they face at LV (a solid, safe offense not prone to sacks or turnovers), GB, DET the next three weeks. Not great matchups.

 

 -- The Bucs may be the better DST to roll with…

They held Brees to 160 yards passing and the Saints run game to 2.4 yards per carry in this game. The Saints scored 34 points but there were a few lucky breaks in there and offensive turnovers setting up things that forced the Bucs to yield points.

Facing Teddy, Lock, Tyrod, Trubisky the next 4 weeks…that’s a great opportunity for the Bucs to win four straight and for their DST to emerge.

 

‍

Snap Counts of Interest:

 

55 = Mk Thomas

44 = Tre’Quan Smith

33 = Emm Sanders

 

44 = J Cook

36 = Josh Hill

17 = Taysom Hill

07 = Trautman

 

45 = Kamara

23 = Latavius

 

66 = Godwin

65 = Evans

43 = Miller

11 = Watson

 

33 = Ron Jones

25 = McCoy

09 = Fournette

 

54 = Gronk

37 = OJH

07 = Brate 

R.C. Fischer

FFM

15 September 2020

2020 Week 1 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis: Bears 27, Lions 23

 

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

 

This may be the most important write-up of Week 1, for a few reasons…but mostly because several Lions’ players may save your lost (after one whole week) fantasy season. We’ll get into that in the player’s section.

As far as this game goes…two bad teams, in general, played each other -- the one missing their most key offensive weapon (Kenny Golladay) had a nice 23-6 lead late in the 3rd-quarter AND then lost the game somehow. They lost the big lead and game to a QB that I swear I thought was going to get pulled for Nick Foles in the 4th-quarter. Instead, Mitch ends up dropping another 3 TD game on the Lions and is hailed as a hero (he wasn’t…we’ll get into that too).

The Bears defense was the best thing I saw on the field this game, but it wasn’t dominant…and helped by Kenny Golladay not being there and D’Andre Swift’s inability to catch a football.

The Bears team, as an entire group/organization, is a fraud…this win is smoke-and-mirrors. However, they play the Giants and Falcons the next two games. They have a chance to be 3-0/2-1 after three weeks – but, believe me, they are not good. This is not a sneaky playoff contender…but before I write that in stone, let me see what happens when Foles takes over around Week 5-6.

 

Fantasy Player Notes…

 

 -- Here’s how the Lions FF players can benefit you richly ahead…

1) The Lions have arguably the worst pass defense in the NFL to begin with, and then in this game they lost one starting CB for sure (Justin Coleman) and two others are questionable with hamstring issues this week (Okudah and Trufant). The poor get o]poorer.

…however, this is good for fantasy numbers from the Lions’ offense. The Lions, per usual, are going to have to throw a lot playing from behind. They’re going to give up a lot of points and their offense is capable of playing in shootouts. 

And then the key part…

From Weeks 2-12, they play some of the worst pass defenses in the NFL (in my estimation). Week 4 vs. NO is not great but doable and Week 5 is bye. Outside of that they are looking great for output. Not for NFL wins…for output for FF. In that 10-game span (Weeks 2-12), they will play in a dome seven times (also conducive for offense). The three non-dome games are at GB this week (where it will be mild temps), Week 6 at Jacksonville is favorable weather typically, and Week 11 at Carolina which should be great outdoor football conditions.

You want in on this passing game ahead.

 

2) Matt Stafford (24-42 for 297 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) is part of what you want if you need it. He should’ve had 350+ yards and 2-3 passing TDs in this game, against a decent pass defense. D’Andre Swift dropped a 20+ yard (game winning) TD. Stafford had near misses/drops on a few other passes in-game. He really missed Kenny Golladay. If he had Golladay, he might have thrown for 400+ yards here.

Stafford is about to be ‘Matt Ryan north’ (again, like Weeks 1-8 last year) – dome/home, bad defense, throwing in garbage time a lot.

 

3) Of course, you’d love to have (healthy) Kenny Golladay with all this…but there are other beneficiaries.

As soon as KG is back, Marvin Jones (4-55-0/8) is going to take off. He looked great here. Don’t blame him that the Bears (smartly) doubled him a lot and always in the end zone. Many of you have Marvin, because he was high on our list preseason – but you see him in this stat line and wince and think you have a WR problem. You don’t. It’s a ‘you’ problem. It’s your negativity-colored glasses you wear anytime anyone doesn’t score 2 TDs with 100+ yards each week. Be patient…you have a STRONG WR2 in Marvin, in all formats. Kenny G. back will help launch this.

You should be buying ALL the cheap Marvin stock you can find right now.

You should also not already have him and be whining about how bad your WRs are. Stop. You’re taking Week 1 and times-ing it by 16 and assuming that’s their season. You’re making a HUGE FF mistake…one that ALWAYS gets FF owners in trouble after Week 1.

Go get Marvin this week, pay little for it. An (0-1) team will cough him up in the right deal. Don’t ask for it by name upfront and drive the price up…just slide in casually and let them dump Marvin on you.

 

4) The Lions are like the Falcons, for FF, for all the reasons I mentioned prior (dome/home, bad defense, throwing in garbage time a lot)

Stafford = Ryan

Golladay = Julio

Marvin = Ridley (yes, he does)

Amendola = Gage

Hockenson = discount, old Hooper 2018-19…and I’m not a TJH guy, but he’s in a good spot the next 10 games.

If you saw the Lions’ players that (Falcons’) way, for real, it would change your perspective on them for FF. People love Ridley and Gage, and they whistle right past Marvin and Amendola as nobodies.

 

10.3 FF PPG, 15.2 PPR PPG on 4.8 rec., 66.6 yards, 0.53 TDs per game = Ridley 2019

10.2 FF PPG, 14.9 PPR PPG on 4.8 rec., 59.9 yards, 0.69 TDs per game = Marvin 2019

 

You’re the one with a vision problem…not Marvin.

Marvin also did about half his 2019 work with not-Stafford.

What is the real-world value differential between Marvin and Ridley? A lot more than what the stats say/what reality says.

But…Ridley was better in Week 1 in 2020, so now in frustration of Week 1 let’s cut Marvin Jones in anger and chase Russell Gage hard in waivers. What? Have some patience – if you own Marvin. Go get Marvin if you don’t have him. The price is amazing right now. Some weak hands may cut him in 10-team leagues.

 

 -- Notice, I didn’t include any Lions’ RBs in that ‘Lions with benefits’ info above. What about D’Andre Swift (3-8-1, 3-15-0/5)?

He should be on that list.

But I can’t put him on just yet because he was the worst looking rookie RB Week 1 of all the big names. Somehow UDFA James Robinson was completely unfazed in his big-spot debut and Swift looked like a deer in headlights as a backup. It wasn’t just the dropped TD. He got into space in all the wrong ways on a few other passes. Dropped a potential catch besides the TD drop. And when he ran the ball, he looked stiff/nervous/non-instinctual…like I saw at Georgia against better defenses.

It might be rookie/debut jitters. He played the most snaps of all the Detroit RBs. He should be a ‘winner’ here, but he might struggle the next few weeks to get comfortable. He’s more of a gamble then a sure thing the next week or two. You might buy lower in two weeks.

 

 -- To wrap up the Lions’ offensive notes…

Rookie WR Quintez Cephus (3-43-0/10) looked way more ready than Swift, or many other rookies Week 1. An emergency fill-in for Golladay, he looked promising. He’s an odd scouting event…terrible measurables, but the tape was good/great.

He looked like a solid #4 WR here for the Lions, a guy who will start when Marvin moves on in a year or two. The Bears doubled Marvin and dared Cephus to beat them…and he couldn’t/he’s not ready yet. Not enough speed to get open in a raw sense either. He needs to get more polished on toutes/playbook because the speed is lacking.

 

 -- While we’re speaking of rookie WRs…Darnell Mooney (3-38-0/3) is already better than Anthony Miller (4-76-1/6), and I think the Bears coaches know it. The presence of Mooney will put a lid on Miller excitement the next few weeks, in the good matchups Weeks 2-3. Miller would be the play, but Mooney is going to be lurking.

Mooney played 21 snaps and made a couple nice plays this game. Miller played 27 snaps, and to his credit he made an amazing game winning TD catch late.

 

 -- You thought I was going to come in hot defending Mitchell Trubisky (20-36 for 242 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT, 3-26-0), but you would be wrong.

I still believe Trubisky is maligned too much. And I believe Trubisky has incredible tools that could’ve (maybe) been made golden by a Kyle Shanahan tutelage. I like Mitch more than anyone, but I did not see any growth or high-end QB play in this game.

Mitch threw two types of passes all game…

1) Off-target throws that his WRs saved the day on a lot…and he still only completed 55% of his passes.

2) Saw the one-on-one matchups and air mailed bombs at it hoping for gold or an incompletion. He got a couple great WR catches on them to help save this day.

I usually see the good in Trubisky, in games…but this game was not good by my pro-Trub standards. He’s still too jumpy. Throwing into traffic too much, off-target and just throwing prayers hoping they are answered. I really thought they might pull him when they were down 23-6 late in the 3rd-quarter…it was that rough, and he has perpetual media heat on him anyway so it’s coming. He got bailed out by receivers here…which is not a crime, many QBs only exist that way. But I assure you, Trubisky did not take a step forward or find another level here. He was lucky. He was minutes away from being benched I think.

I want to hate Trubisky for Week 2 but hosting the Giants…it might work again. However, I will be betting the Giants and I don’t even know the line as I type this. I’m going to guess -5.0. Let me go look…it’s Bears -5.5. I’ll take the G-Men.  

 

 -- Trubisky isn’t getting any better, nor is David Montgomery (13-64-0, 1-10-0/3).

If Trubisky is one of the five worst starting QBs in the NFL (full of untapped potential or not…he plays like he’s bad) and if Montgomery is one of the five worst starting RBs in the NFL – how can you like the Bears as -5.5 favorites over anyone?

You would be wise to try to trade your David Montgomery stock in for an RB2 equivalent you like better or DM + ___ for a ____ you reach for/like. Montgomery slimmed down this offseason…and now looks like a too small, too slow, bad starting RB. Cordarrelle Patterson (4-19-0, 1-12-0/1) looks way better at tail back.

 

 -- Tarik Cohen (7-41-0, 2-6-0/2)…two targets. How is this possible?

Why hasn’t Trubisky gotten better? Why is Cohen underutilized? Why is Cordarrelle always underutilized? Why do they insist on feeding a terrible RB in Montgomery? Why did they draft Riley Ridley? Why did they pay Jimmy Graham so much money when he’s a shell of his former self? Why is Anthony Miller a #2 WR for this team? Why has Khalil Mack disappeared (memba that trade that was so stupid for the Raiders?)?

Matt Nagy is awful, and so is the GM.

They won’t use Cohen consistently, which makes Trubisky and/or Nagy incredibly bad at their jobs. It won’t change, even if it hits for a week…it won’t the next. Your Cohen FF-cards are near worthless.

 

 -- Tracy Walker (9 tackles, 2 TFLs, 1 PD) had a great 2019, but was being moved between 1st and 2nd team in the preseason for ‘reasons’. He played 83% of the snaps here and had a nice IDP effort, but they aren’t in love with Walker like before. Patricia is into ex-Patriot Duron Harmon (100% of the snaps/5 tackles) and also loves Wil Harris (5 tackles). Beware on Walker.

They have so many DBs hurt. Walker has to play more even if it’s not the full plan.

 

 

Snap Counts of Interest:

 

71 = Marvin

62 = Cephus

43 = Amendola

 

34 = Swift

24 = AP

20 = Kerryon

 

30 = Cohen

29 = Montgomery

10 = Patterson

 

53 = ARob

28 = Ginn

27 = Miller

23 = Mims

21 = Mooney

R.C. Fischer

FFM

15 September 2020

2020 Week 1 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis: Jaguars 27, Colts 20

 

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

 

Can you believe the Jacksonville Jaguars are in sole possession of 1st-place in the AFC South?

Do you think the Jags will be sole possession winners in the end?

Consider that logic before freaking out too much at your (0-1) start, if you lost, this week.

My first three thoughts about this game:

1) Frank Reich is trying to put himself on the hot seat. Suddenly, the Doug Pederson, Frank Reich, John DeFilippo coaching tree from the Philly Super Bowl isn’t looking so good two years later. There’s still time, but if the Colts don’t make the playoffs this year, I think both Reich and Rivers will be swept out.

2) ‘Jacksonville is tanking’ is the cry every time teams dump all their notorious players. I’m thinking there may be something to having a roster full of ‘PSH’ players instead of bloated payroll ‘stars’…PSH = Poor, smart, and hungry. Those guys tryin’ to get rich, trying to become the bloated payroll stars of tomorrow.

3) *Scratch all this #3...it was a late night watching that game to the bitter end. I lost my TEN bet -2.5...so, same difference...it;s a loss to me, so it should be for them.* You know who is the big beneficiary of this Jags win? The Texans.

If you figure HOU-IND-TEN will be in a dog fight for the AFC South title…then the Texans burned a loss in their toughest matchup (Wk1 v KC) while the other two contenders lost games people figured as ‘wins’, and Indy took a divisional loss to a supposed ‘win’. Houston was under pressure this year due to their tough early schedule…well, they did lose Week 1…but it doesn’t sting as much now that Indy and Tenn lost winnable games.

As far as this game goes… The Colts were better than the Jags overall, but two bad turnovers from Phillip Rivers cost the Colts. And credit Jacksonville…they never flinched in this game. They played with college passion/zeal. The Colts played stoically and got caught because their QB is too turnover prone…and it will be a problem throughout the year.

The Colts are in a bit of a do-or-die Week 2 game hosting MIN, but more do-or-die for MIN. The Colts could lose Week 2 and then win their next four (NYJ-CHI-CLE-CIN).

If the Jags somehow beat TEN Week 2…then watch out. MIA and CIN the following weeks.

 

Fantasy Player Notes…

 

 -- The big news from this game: Marlon Mack is done for the year…and the Jonathan Taylor (9-22-0, 6-67-0/9) era has begun. If you grabbed Taylor in redrafts as a 3rd/4th-round flyer – you just got a certain RB1 in all formats going forward. You’ve been given a gift from the football gods. He’s better than Clyde Edwards-Helaire and, without Mack, in a better situation. If we were doing the Dynasty Rookie Draft today – Taylor might be my #1 over CEH. I knew the Colts would try to stick with Marlon Mack too long, thus my slight hesitation on Taylor for a moderate 2020 start -- but Taylor owners were dealt a gift by having Mack taken away from the Colts’ coaches. Like a kid running with scissors, we had to save the Colts from themselves…and it just happened.

Will Nyheim Hines (7-28-1, 8-45-1/8) be a factor? Absolutely. He can really be that Danny Woodhead/Austin Ekeler for Rivers now. Both Taylor and Hines will thrive in PPR. Combined, Taylor-Hines had 14 targets this game…the entire Ravens backfield had none in Week 1.

 

 -- After one week/judging by this one week, Parris Campbell (6-71-0/9, 1-9-0) looks like the better/smoother connection with Rivers than T.Y. Hilton (4-53-0/9). It may just be the way the Jags played the two WRs, but for sure Campbell is now an every week FF starter WR2 threat consistently.

Hilton should be fine too, but the better news is – Parris has arrived as a high-end/dangerous slot WR.

 

 -- Speaking of high end WRs… Keelan Cole (5-47-1/5) has reemerged. He looked fantastic with Minshew, very smooth and comfortable. Cole played the second most snaps of any Jags WR…just ahead of Laviska Shenault (2-10-0, 3-37-1/4).

Shenault has his place, but Cole is a legit WR…Shenault is more of a designed plays/gimmick option right now; not a legit NFL WR yet. Shenault is solid, but highly overrated…but he’s a rookie, so he’s magical…for now. He’s a WR3 flyer for FF.

D.J. Chark (3-25-1/3) got just three targets. I didn’t see anything wrong, just Jacksonville didn’t have the ball as much (time of possession 26 min) and Minshew threw 20 passes (but completed 95% of them). It wasn’t an air raid by any means.

 

 -- Rookie James Robinson (16-62-0, 1-28-0/1) looked solid. The TV analysts were losing their minds over Robinson’s every touch at first, but that’s how they do. Enamored of the UDFA-to-Week 1 starter story, which is amazing.

Robinson started, played the most RB snaps by far for the Jags. He was very solid/capable…he’s a ‘C’ grade NFL back. At the end of the day, he is what I thought going in – ‘capable’ but behind a weaker O-Line, and he scored 10 PPR points. RB3 work. The upside is limited. As Ryquell and (maybe) Dare filter in, JRob could fade a touch. Also, if the Jags make an early season run…they might be tempted to get a real/veteran RB.

I’m a ‘sell high’ on Robinson because it’s ‘too soon’ and because he’s a rookie, he’s a magical unicorn of possibilities so you can get established players in exchange hopefully.

 

 -- Philip Rivers (36-46 for 363 yards, 1 TD/2 INT) is becoming a version of Jameis Winston…throwing passes up for grabs at bad times and leading to mass turnovers, but also gets decent passer tallies otherwise (for FF).

In his last 13 games, Rivers has thrown 17 TDs/20 INTs with six 300+ yard games. Remind you of anyone? *(cough) Winston*

Rivers might be a sneaky thing for 6pts passing TD/300+ yard bonus leagues.

 

 -- A few Jags’ IDPs to mention…

Josh Jones (12 tackles) started and showed why Jacksonville’s staff was so high on him (and why they traded Ronnie Harrison). Nice Jags’ debut for FF/IDP.

C.J. Henderson (5 tackles, 3 PDs) is already flashing ‘shutdown corner’ signs. Why the Lions drafted Jeff Okudah #3 overall ahead of Henderson is silly and dumb and going to get Matt Patricia and the GM run out of town at the end of the season. Okudah couldn’t win a starting job with Detroit this summer…and CJH is already a top half of the league cover corner. That’s a massive mistake by the Lions…a fatal one for employment.

I’ve never been a big Myles Jack (11 tackles, 1 sack, 3 QB hits) fan, but mostly because the Jags insisted he was an ILB. I always thought he was a way better joker/OLB/jack of all trades prospect. Well, he has been unleashed more in that role in 2020…and ‘boom’ great IDP numbers here.

 

 -- I had a lot of stock in Indy and the Rams DSTs as bargain DSTs available late in redrafts, and I did that because of their schedules (and solid talent).

Before you cry about the Colts-DST Week 1…note, they held the Jags to 241 total yards (2nd-best in the NFL in Week 1) and racked 4.0 sacks (2nd-best in the NFL in Week 1). So-so matchup with MIN this week and then Darnold-Trubisky-Baker-Burrow after that.

 

 

Snap counts of Interest:

 

42 = Chark

33 = K Cole

31 = Shenault

16 = Conley

 

61 = Parris

59 = T.Y.

46 = Pascal

39 = Pittman

 

39 = Hines

26 = Taylor

11 = Mack

01 = Wilkins

R.C. Fischer

FFM

15 September 2020

2020 Week 1 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis: Ravens 38, Browns 6

 

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

 

This was an abomination of football. Just when you thought the Browns couldn’t get worse…they did. Arguably, the best team in football played one of the three worst here – and the result you would expect to happen…happened.

I didn’t get to watch this live because DirecTV didn’t show it in the ‘8 in a box’ 1pmET view, and then wouldn’t allow me to watch live on computer for blackout rules in Ohio. So, pre-write up, was my one and only watch. On Sunday, I knew from the score what was happening (Browns getting killed), nothing new/fresh it seemed, but then to watch it live -- it was even worse then I imagined. How anyone could be a Browns fan is beyond me.

The Browns face some of the other worst teams in football the next two weeks (CIN-WAS), so they might catch a blip/uptick and head fake ‘change’ for a moment…but this 2020 Browns team is as bad/worse than 2019. Baltimore faces a gauntlet the next two weeks…Houston and KC. I think they might sweep those games.

 

 

Fantasy Player Notes…

 

 -- First things first…Odell Beckham (3-22-0/10) is such a nothing player anymore…he’s barely a WR3 conversation. He’ll have a game here or there with a big play, maybe the next two games with CIN-WAS…but against any decent coverage he’s empty. I don’t think he can beat weak coverage now.

Everything is the same as 2019 with OBJ…

Dropped passes.

Not getting separation/open.

After every play where he doesn’t catch the pass, he slumps his shoulders and saunters back to the huddle like it was everyone else’s fault.

He is stealing paychecks, and not interested in getting hit or making any on-field impact beyond shooting for a ‘big play’. He’s collecting game checks until he doesn’t. I suspect he’ll be traded or cut by midseason…or just put inactive, sent home to collect checks away from the team and then they will cut him in the offseason. He’s a waste of space, and when the Browns start racking up the losses…they’ll start pruning the roster for 2021, and OBJ is an early clip.

 

 -- I don’t even recognize Baker Mayfield (21-39 for 189 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) anymore. Gone is the wheeler-dealer from Oklahoma years and the record-setting rookie NFL performance of 2018. That Baker has been coached-to-be a stiff, as an old school NFL pocket passing QB with a playbook known for its robotic, predictable receiver routes. No one is hardly open when Baker drops back most critical throwing times. It would help if his #1-2 WR gave a damn or if they had any other legit NFL WRs on the roster.

Watching Baker in this game…same as 2019 – it was a chore for even his completions to happen…needing ‘miracle’ catches to happen in jump ball scenarios. Some of the blame goes to the Ravens defense, but a lot is this is the same tired/dead Browns offense from 2019.

Baker will be on the trade block after this season, I would suspect. Kevin Stefanski will want a fresh start…and that’s what Cleveland lives for, fresh starts and culture changes that never happen but takes 3-5 years to realize it isn’t working…it’s a systemic organizational problem. Baker is smart…he’ll know his career is going down the toilet if he stays with the Browns. Many players force their way off bottom feeding teams lately (Jamal Adams, Jalen Ramsey, etc.)…Baker is going to have to go there. This could be a story/circus with OBJ and Landry and Baker all wanting out soon.

 

 -- The nightmares out of Cleveland don’t stop there. Your worst fantasy nightmare of all…it’s a Chubb/Hunt split backfield now.

And I don’t know that Kareem Hunt (13-72-0, 4-9-0/6) isn’t going to pull into the 55/45 lead role. Chubb started this game, but Hunt played with much more energy (and took more snaps overall). Chubb looked like a defeated guy knowing how much money he potentially lost (not going to be ‘the guy’ to take ‘all the stats’ now) when the team signed Hunt to an extension last week.

I’m not giving up on Chubb in the rare instances I have him, but I’d be rattled where I do. He’s still fine, but like most ‘starting’ NFL RBs…he’s in a split role and has to share and that affects his FF output. Many RBs suffered that fate (finding out they weren’t ‘the guy’ anymore) in Week 1. We’re down to a rare few ‘the guys’ in the NFL at RB…and Chubb is not one of them.

 

 -- Speaking of ‘main carry’ backs who died Week 1…welcome to RBBC hell in Baltimore, and Mark Ingram (10-29-0) is no longer king.

J.K. Dobbins (7-22-2) is so obviously the future, and the future is probably right now. But this right now future will have Ingram-Dobbins-Edwards splitting time for a bit before Dobbins just takes over, but on a 60/40 split takeover. Dobbins deserves to be in the conversation with rookie RBs Edwards-Helaire and Taylor, but JKD is in the worst situation (for FF) among them right now.

If Ingram goes down…it’s game-on with Dobbins. It might be in about 2-3 more weeks regardless of injury. We’ll know what Harbaugh is thinking when they face HOU-KC the next two weeks – does he go with the steady veteran (Ingram) a lot and keep JKD back -- or does he need to turn to his new, high-powered sports car (Dobbins).

Also, note about this backfield…no targets to any of the backs in this game. Dobbins is going to be good, but in PPR he may never hit great with Lamar at QB. A lack of targets…and Lamar taking TDs too.

 

 -- Lamar Jackson (20-25 for 275 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT, 7-45-0) has had no drop off…and is playing with a fire of a guy wanting to get a big $500M contract. He wasn’t playing ‘satisfied’ like I thought Mahomes-Watson did on TNF. Lamar looks/acts hungry (he is). Lamar and Mahomes are top 10 fantasy assets…and were key to my offseason drafts, hopefully many of yours too.  

Lamar is getting ready to make a run as the top thing in FF again.

 

 -- Ravens WR notes…

Marquise Brown (5-101-0/6) looks great…no ill effects of the added weight/muscle in the offseason. He has a WR1 shot in non-PPR this year.

Just a quick note on rookie Devin Duvernay (1-12-0/1)…he had a really nice bubble screen early in the game. He returned kicks to the tune of 32.0 per return. He might not be much for 2020 FF, but he has a future…you can see it and I think Harbaugh does too.

 

 -- An inauspicious start to his Browns career for Austin Hooper (2-15-0/2). However, I see some FF-hope here…

He was the clear snap count leader at TE.

David Njoku is hurt/out now, possibly for the season.

Baker has nothing else to trust/throw to except occasional Jarvis Landry (5-61-0/6) moments.

I’m not saying Hooper is a TE1 now…just, don’t write him off just yet.

 

 -- Ravens rookie Patrick Queen (8 tackles, 1 TFL) had a solid IDP start, stat-wise. I was watching him a lot because I think he might be a weak link ILB. He was fairly active. He got credited with 8 tackles, but boy…some of them were ‘iffy’ that they were his.

 

 -- Let me end on this… Why doesn’t an NFL team trade for Justice Hill? The Ravens have no need for him. He can’t cost that much.

 

 

Snap Counts of Interest:

 

23 = Dobbins

21 = Ingram

15 = Edwards

 

40 = Boykin

39 = Snead

37 = Brown

11 = Duvernay

 

36 = Hunt

35 = Chubb

 

55 = OBJ

52 = Landry

40 = Hodge

16 = Higgins

R.C. Fischer

FFM

14 September 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 9 Game Analysis: Vikings 39, Lions 29

 

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

 

This wasn’t a close game. It should’ve been…it should’ve been a moment where the Lions left it all on the field to get to (4-4) and defeat a struggling Vikings team and thus stayed in the playoff hunt. They did no such thing. This was probably the game that really cost Matt Patricia his job…constant disappointment and always a bunch of ‘almosts’ with this team. They either play poorly and/or have key injuries bringing them down…they lost Matt Stafford in this game – but it didn’t matter, he was not making much difference.

Detroit is now (3-5) and fading, but with several winnable games the next 4 weeks…’winnable’ ones that they won’t win enough of. If they lose Week 10 (v. WSH) then the bottom will fully fall out of this thing. A win keeps (false) hope alive. We see the Lions ending up around 5-6 wins in the end.

The Vikings are also now (3-5) and they played sloppy and have all kinds of DB issues…but they won and are kinda climbing back into the expanded wild card race. They have 4 winnable games ahead too. If they beat the Bears at CHI on MNF this week, a tall order considering it’s a national TV game at Chicago, then they are right back in the wild card chase. Best case, they can get to (6-6) and then have a tough schedule to tackle finishing out. We see them falling short of the playoffs with 7-8 wins max.

 

 

Fantasy Player Notes…

 

 -- Just to start here on the ‘I’m stupid’ train…

I never thought Dalvin Cook (22-206-2, 2-46-0/2) would matter much in the NFL. I scouted him as a very average, with flaws, RB for the NFL and been waiting for his downfall for a few years…but he keeps getting better the past two years. I thought his career might go the way of Devonta Freeman’s.

However, Cook is the best runner of the ball in the NFL right now…and an MVP candidate, because he’s carrying this team/offense the last few weeks.

I never thought he would be this good. He’s been great in 2020. Hats off to him…I’m the fool.

If/when he falters next year, I’ll be the first to say ‘see’…but I take a permanent ‘L’ here because I never thought he’d be as good as he is this season, and last. Regardless of what happens from here.

POWER TO THE 210 POUND RBs!!!

The top four PPG PPR RBs in FF 2020:

205-pound Christian McCaffrey

210-pound Dalvin Cook

215-pound Alvin Kamara

208-pound Aaron Jones

Time to re-think all my previous RB scouting models on what the best ‘size’ profile fits the NFL. It’s not 220+ pounds with great speed/agility metrics as the ‘holy ones’ anymore.

 

 -- 215-pound D’Andre Swift (13-64-0, 3-33-0/5) is the Lions #1 back, despite not technically starting. Swift’s touch counts (rush + reception) vs. AP’s (8-29-0, 3-14-0/5) the past 4 games:

17 to 16 Swift = Week 6

13 to 12 Swift = Week 7

09 to 06 Swift = Week 8

16 to 11 Swift = Week 9

 

Since Week 6, Swift is the #7 RB in PPR PPG (2 or more games played).

 

 -- Must win game for Detroit. A Vikings secondary that’s (a) terrible and (b) injured/playing 3rd-string corners too much. It was a great setup for a big game for Matt Stafford (22-32 for 211 yards, 1 TD/2 INTs)…but it wasn’t.

Coming off back-to-back 300+ yard games, Stafford played one of his worst games of 2020 and left early with concussion issues.

You want to trust him for Week 10, but Washington is #1 in pass defense least yards per game allowed and #4 in sacks among all defenses. It’s not a good matchup and Stafford has barely been good two drives in-a-row all year.

 

 -- Irv Smith (2-10-2/4) got just two catches in this game…but both grabs for TDs. Smith is really not a big part of the passing game, especially when Cook is running wild. He’s a random TE2 you hope has a good game by some kind of luck. He’s also banged up and not 100% after this game.

 

 -- Eric Wilson (13 tackles, 0.5 sacks, 1.0 PDs) is playing some great football and producing sweet IUDP numbers, finally…as I’ve been crying out in the wilderness about him for three years+.

Since Week 2, Wilson is the #10 IDP scoring LB in fantasy. Just behind his teammate Eric Kendricks.

 

 

Snap Counts of Interest:

 

38 = Cook

16 = Mattison

 

42 = Rudolph

25 = Conklin

22 = Irv Smith

 

71 = Marvin J

53 = M Hall

48 = Amendola

 

30 = Swift

25 = Kerryon

20 = AP

R.C. Fischer

FFM

14 September 2020

2020 Week 1 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis: Raiders 34, Panthers 30

 

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

 

The Panthers were winning this game with 8+ minutes to go, 28-27 (having just scored a 75-yard TD). The Raiders held the lead most of the game and seemed to be the better team, but with 8+ minutes left it seemed like a ‘stunner’ was in the works. The Raiders came right back with a ‘winning team’ type (Gruden)grinder drive to take back the lead 34-30 and held off some half-__ed attempts by Carolina to try and win the game late.

My quick overview here was – the Raiders were the better team, but they let Carolina hang around (a lucky-ish, long TD doing the trick) late but the better team regrouped and exercised their will and won it.

The Panthers are not hapless, they are better than people expected.

This was a nice, gritty win by the Raiders…and this team is a better cornerback play away (even if they acquire it in-season) from being a 10+ win team.

The Raiders have a huge test hosting the Saints this week. Carolina hits the road for the next two weeks and could be 0-3 after it, but they might win one of the roadies (TB or LAC, I’ll let you guess which one) and then this team starts to stabilize/gel as we go. The Panthers were out of sync compared to the Raiders, which is understandable comparing all the changes in the offseason, but almost won this game despite it. Matt Rhule is a very good football coach.

I know, I know…

All you want to know is – What happened to Bryan Edwards!!?!?! Actually, you want a pound of flesh.

 

 

Fantasy Football Player Notes…

 

 -- So, what happened to Bryan Edwards (1-9-0/1)? Where was this mythical legend of renown? One target?

First, let me say – I am worried. I am worried he is in a spot where he’ll be the ‘main WR’, and that won’t matter beyond being a WR2.5-3 week-to-week.

The Raiders ran 61 offensive plays (carries and pass attempts) in this game. An analysis of their distribution of things:

31 plays (51.7%) for Josh Jacobs

39 plays (63.9%) for Raiders RBs in total

48 plays (78.7%) for Raiders RBs + TEs

11 plays (18.0%) for the Raiders WRs (9 of the 11 passes)

02 plays unaccounted for/throwaways

 

11 plays for/at WRs for LV, and by contrast -- Carolina had 64 plays and 28 of them (43.8%) involved WRs.

Of the 11 plays for WRs for the Raiders, Ruggs had 7 plays (63.6%)…2 carries and 5 targets.

 

The bad news for Edwards – the Raiders are a heavy RB-TE based offense.

The hopeful news – the over-exaggerated levels of RB-TE here may just be this one game, the targeted plan or game flow that was allowed.

The good news – Edwards started, played the most snaps of any WR on the team.

Edwards might be the team’s #1 WR, or not…but if they have no real plans to use their WRs as real weapons, besides trying to get Ruggs to run real fast – Edwards is going to be dead for fantasy in 2020. We may all clearly see Edwards is their most talented guy, but it won’t matter because the purposed volume for a Derek Carr/Jon Gruden led offense is not pitch-and-catch with WRs.

We’ll see what happens when the Raiders are dragged into a game where they can’t just run/sit on the other team…and that might be Week 2 vs. NO, but there is a reason to be concerned that Edwards will be the teams best WR…and that fact will not matter much for FF week-to-week, and it be more matchup/game flow based.

Watching Edwards play/running routes, his one catch – he looked fine. Also, watching him…Carr was not even bothering to look at him, in general.

Let’s see what happens Week 2/in a game where there might be more opened up/chasing from behind offense by the Raiders before we nail a coffin shut here. Teams are going to overplay the run on Las Vegas and force them to throw ahead…which might lead to the Edwards perk up. But the fast start I was hoping for – not here, not sure it will arrive in time to matter for FF 2020 before we all start to give up.

 

 -- Speaking of disappointing WRs… Curtis Samuel (5-38-0/8, 1-5-0) was used no more-or-less differently here than he was under Norv Turner. He’s just a talented WR surrounded by other talented WRs working in a sketchy passing game.

He got one carry, but there were no unique things/alignments/usage that I saw.

Any dream/hope that he might see some radical usage…looks like those dreams are dead.

 

 -- Samuel’s targeting was nice (8 targets, 2nd-best on team) but the extra problem this game was – Teddy Bridgewater (22-34 for 270 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 4-26-0) isn’t a great/high-end passer machine. He’s a quick passing, game manager.

Teddy is perfectly fine for the NFL, but him springing multiple WRs to something great for fantasy…I didn’t see any chance of it in their debut together. Now, I will give the allowance that these guys are all new working together and in another 2-3-4 weeks, something might emerge – but Teddy was off-target a lot here, even on some completions.

No one WR stood out as ‘his fave’. It did appear that he isn’t, by nature, going to gun it to Christian McCaffrey (23-96-2, 3-38-0/4) every other throw (like Carolina did the past two seasons), but it’s too early to fully judge. Last season, eventually Teddy went heavy Alvin Kamara in his six start stretch last year for NO.

The biggest takeaway from observing the first tape of this passing game – I don’t know who Teddy favors, and Teddy didn’t excite me…and he got lucky Robby Anderson turned a 20-yard pass into a 75-yard TD.

I am ready to reassess ahead because it just looked like this whole passing game was not 100% in sync this game, and that’s understandable Week 1 under a new system/coach/QB/WR trio.

 

 -- Ian Thomas (2-16-0/2) was certainly not a breakout performer with Teddy either. He’s running 5th in the battle for Teddy’s attention, so this is likely a disappointing fantasy play/hold for now. Again, it’s early.

 

 -- As I mentioned prior, Josh Jacobs (25-93-3, 4-46-0/4) is the offense…as Derrick Henry is to Tennessee, so is Jacobs to Las Vegas – and Jacobs can catch passes. He’s on the short list for top FF RB for 2020.

Devontae Booker (4-29-0, 3-23-0/3) spelled Jacobs, and looked quite solid doing so – if Jacobs crumbles under the heavy workload down the road…you want Booker as the cuff.

 

 -- Raiders SAF Johnathan Abram (13 tackles, 1 TFL) lived up to his 1st-round pick hype…an intimidator who was playing 150 miles an hour all game. He’s got a shot to lead all DBs in tackles this year.

 

 -- One of my favorite DLs for IDP, Maxx Crosby (2 tackles), had a weak start for fantasy here…but he did play 76% of the snaps (leading all DLs) and looked fine, and was held (and not called) on two potential sacks. No reason to worry here (except holding is somehow legal now…I missed that rule change this offseason).

 

 -- You got the top name kickers we all know, but among the lesser-lauded kickers the two from this game are two of my favorite young kickers…

Joey Slye (3/3 FGs, 1/2 XPs) was a top kicker in the 1st-half of last season, dropping several 50+ yard bombs early in the 2019 season and then minor struggles 2nd-half.

Daniel Carlson (2/2 FGs, 4/4 XPs) was one of the best college kickers I’ve seen but struggled big time under Mike Zimmer (MIN drafted Carlson 5th-round 2018) bullying and is now getting settled in with Las Vegas the past 2+ seasons. Nice 2020 season debut here, including a 54-yarder. He now kicks indoors at home, instead of from shortstop or second base as he would have done in the past in Oakland…that’s also a plus.

 

 

Snap Counts of Interest:

 

58 = DJ Moore

55 = Robby A

50 = Samuel

44 = Ian Thomas

 

65 = CMC

03 = Mike Davis

 

63 = Chinn, CAR rookie (100% of the Def snaps)

43 = Derrick Brown, CAR rookie DL

16 = Gross-Matos, CAR rookie DL

 

56 = Waller

49 = Jacobs

47 = Bry Edwards

42 = Ruggs

30 = Renfrow

28 = Witten

12 = Moreau

R.C. Fischer

FFM

11 September 2020

2020 Week 1 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis: Chiefs 34, Texans 20

 

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

 

This is Week 1, Game #1…so, we’re going 4,000+ words for a kickoff extravaganza…as I do. Here we go…

 

I’m writing this opening salvo before I re-watch this to reconsider/study what I saw live. I’ll note when this initial reaction/writing is done, and when my fresh notes start after I sleep on it and rewatch it. Perhaps, I’ll have a new perspective on this game after a good night’s sleep.

After the live watch: I walked away from this game thinking it was one of the most passionless games I’ve ever seen played by a team…that being the Houston Texans. When you consider the recent history here…you had to think the Texans would play like their hair was on fire in this game. Even if beaten…that they would go down swinging to try to avenge their embarrassment from last season’s playoffs. With months to prepare…coming off one of the most epic playoff meltdowns (to KC) in football history…the Texans came out with zero life/energy and got softly put to sleep by a barely trying Kansas City team.  

I thought KC mailed this one in, mostly…but I’d also say it was likely due to the fact that the game/win was so easy for them…not because they lacked a fire. Maybe they did lack fire too, and we’ll see if any issues arise as the season wears on, but Houston gave them no reason to fight hard here.

Houston, on the other hand…with what should’ve been a huge chip on their shoulder – they rolled over and got beat in every way imaginable. It must be sad for the Texans…this team, this franchise, this staff, their fans -- no matter how good (or not) the 2020 Texans are, they have absolutely no chance to get past a Mahomes-led Kansas City Chiefs in the long run/season. Not now. Not if they meet in the playoffs. Not in 2021…or 2022…or 2023.

Deshaun Watson is now the second-highest paid player in the league, about 20% behind Mahomes. Watson played like he was 50% behind Mahomes in talent.

If we just saw the Texans’ future flash before our eyes…there’s going to be hell to pay soon. Bill O’Brien is going to pay that price. He is the fall guy. His crime is…trading DeAndre Hopkins, and winning the AFC South a lot, and not having Patrick Mahomes. For those crimes, he will be gone after this season…almost no matter what the Texans do. They cannot get to the next level because of Mahomes/KC in the way. It’s like the old Utah Jazz with Stockton-to-Malone, they could never get past the vaunted L.A. Lakers…and thus were forgotten in history as ‘just Final Four material, not Finals material’…much less ‘champs’.

The difference between Mahomes and Watson was once again in front of our eyes to compare and contrast…and it’s not even close which is the better NFL quarterback. Not even worth a discussion. Watson is very nice/solid/very good. He’s not Mahomes…not in his class…not even in the same zip code.

If the Texans go get beat Week 2 by a more passionate/aggressive Baltimore Ravens team…the Texans franchise is really going to be under attack by the local media, the national media, and so on. Why should the Texans fight back the rest of the season when they would have been thumped by Mahomes-Lamar…meaning they will never get past either of them because they are not good enough.

Not a good enough QB (compared to Mahomes)…not a good enough defense.

It’s a little unfair the way this is set up…I mean starting the season with KC-BAL is unfair for Houston. Last year, the Ravens played Miami and Arizona Weeks 1-2. KC faced Jacksonville and Oakland. Houston is playing for their lives, their soul, their future in Week 2. Beat Baltimore and all is forgiven, rendering Week 1 was just a bad blip. Get humiliated again and this puppy is about to go off the rails.

I’m starting to wonder what caused such a stoic game on both sides, but especially Houston.

Is it the lack of a crowd so everything feels like a scrimmage/practice? Or is this what happens when the main guys with the ball in their hands the most are suddenly making a combined $80M a year (and maybe $100M+ a year with everything else they do)? Are we about to see this when Dallas faces the Rams (a battle of bloated payroll ‘stars’)? I was so excited for the opening game of football here, but I was bored, skimming through Amazon for a new clothes hamper on my phone midway through the 3rd-quarter.

Was this just a bad day at the office for Houston…or is this a sign of things to come (undone)?

I’ve been in this business too long to jump to a full conclusion based off of one game – but this certainly got my attention. Baltimore at Houston Week 2 is going to be VERY telling, for both teams really. Can Houston bounce back from looking stupid the prior week (and most good NFL teams do)…or is Baltimore not the juggernaut they were in 2019?

End of ‘first take’ from right after the game.

 

Now onto the next day analysis and exploration of my notes/tape watching…

 

First things first, out of the gates, a few comments on the pregame activity (no, RC...don’t talk about the politics! Don’t worry. I’m not. There are bigger monsters to throw fireballs at!)

1) I made the mistake (that I almost never do any more) of putting on the NFL Network around 630-7pmET or so just to ‘get in the mood’ for the NFL return and see what they were saying. I had to turn it off after 2-3 minutes. 

This may be an NFL season like no other, but Steve Mariucci and Michael Irvin are still 100% useless on any football analysis. They never change. How they stay employed is beyond me. So many businesses/lives got destroyed by the economic wrecking ball of COVID…yet, these two are still making bank. Life is unfair.

Just in case you were wondering what the NFL Network analyst’s hot take was for this game — the Chiefs are good because you can never take Patrick Mahomes lightly because he’s really good. There, I just saved you watching the two-hour pregame analysis. 

 

2) Speaking of useless football commentary...

The chief of all useless football commentary has become Cris Collinsworth. 

I love how Cris says things need to change in society (his just-before kickoff teleprompter read 20 second TED talk)...and yet his entire existence is 'good ol boys network' built/maintained.

Yes, there should be no bias in this country. There should be no favoritism. Collinsworth would agree with all that and then some…with the irony of having weaved his website (PFF) into a position of football prominence using his NBC influence and then the creme de la crème of ‘privilege’...as I fast forwarded through the NBC lead in to get to kickoff -- I saw the spawn of Collinsworth, his son (Jac) is now part of the football coverage with his big media debut/useless interview of Zeke Elliott. 

Geez, I wonder how Zac got that job? It must have been an exhausting interview process and tireless global search by NBC…a search where they made sure to interview all the people of color and sex and nationality looking for THEE very best and brightest...and lo and behold the 25-year old grinder, veteran reporter/silver spoon Jac Collinsworth just happened to outshine them all. 

Surprise!!! I didn’t even get a phone call for the job. Darn my luck. How could I compete with Jac Collinsworth on who knows football better/deeper? Maybe next time for me...

 

3) As it pertains to the social justice pregame items…

I assume some portion of the audience wanted/loved the unity and discussion of the subject on a prominent stage. Some portion of the audience rolled their eyes. A few people want to stop watching sports because of it (so I assume they didn’t see any of it?). 

All I can say is — football on TV is a major ‘big media’ production. So why would we not expect the ‘big media’ to do ‘big media’ things. ‘NBC’ or ‘CBS’ or ‘Fox’ or whomever are NOT passionate fans of football the sport. They don’t love it like we all do. The ‘big media’ is into fighting about politics and keeping all of us divided and watching their news/commentary shows to get themselves higher ad rates – so they don’t care about the integrity of football or anything else but their own self-interests (my opinion). Football is another big stage platform for the media to get themselves 'over' on. This is a group of people who finds Jac Collinsworth the best of the best they could hire for their pregame in 2020. People are up in arms over social justice issues on the pregame, but Jac Collinsworth being hired doesn’t make you want to riot on NBC? These people (the media/networks), this industry perpetually keeps Michael Irvin and Steve ‘Mooch’ Mariucci employed. Why would I expect these same people/show producers/networks to try and keep politics or their ‘feelings’ out of a generic football game production/broadcast?

I cannot listen to any of them talk about football because it’s such a waste of my time. So, I never purposefully watch their pregame or halftimes or post-game. I record the games and fast forward to kickoff and go from there. So, whether the announcers or analysts or whomever handled the social issues thing appropriately or not in this game...I have no idea because I don’t watch them because they were already nothing of interest/a source of my angst just on their football talk…so I definitely do not care about what those same people think about national issues? 

My relationship with the NFL is prostitutional — I bet on them via Fantasy or Handicapping. I’m trying to predict and enjoy and profit off their performance. Their political stances and off-field life are meaningless to me...as mine are totally meaningless to them. I’m trying to make money off them (as they are trying to get money from me), I’m not seeking their friendship or employment. 

When I eat at a restaurant, I don’t first ask the waiter what the chef’s and busboys view on the proper running of society might be. So why would I demand football players act off the field the way I want or don’t want them to? I’m not friends with them…I just fake-own them (for this week) for fantasy…they are not coming over to my house for Thanksgiving.

Whether the NFL handled the social justice issue in the pregame well or whether the TV people acted smart or dumb on it…I have no idea. I didn’t watch and do not care. There are better/scarier things to focus on if you’re into the politics of things. Politicians at the state and local levels have been making their bad governing clear to us in plain sight every day this entire year. The national media is trying to divide the entire country…left and right, to keep fighting each other and never reconciling/finding common grounds. In the face of that, what an NFL player has on the back of their helmet…irrelevant to me. Freedom of speech is fine by me. There are bigger bad guys/gals to worry about/dislike/’cancel’ that are on the national political stage compared to me wanting to stop watching football because of what the 3rd-string safety on the Texans does or doesn’t do during the national anthem.

 

And then there was a game played…

I re-watched it this morning and…

Yeah, ummm…still bad. The Texans were awful/tentative/unmotivated, in general…and the Chiefs sleepwalked through to victory. That’s the game analysis – the better team won, and the losing team played one of the worst ‘energy’ (lack of) games I can recall, for a team that had every reason to be hyped.

 

 

Fantasy Player Notes…

 

 -- That WAS for sure DJ 2016-like that you just watched in this game!!! Don’t adjust your TV sets (who still does that anyway?)!

David Johnson (11-77-1, 3-32-0/4) circa 2016 season...or close to it…was on display, by god. Many FFM’ers have DJ, and in 2020/today that means you got a high-end RB1, a top 5-10 fantasy player threat in the 4th-round months ago, or 3rd/4th-round the past month, and some paid into the 2nd-round the past week. This is how you win fantasy football…this was one of the reasons why I was pushing taking Patrick Mahomes 2nd-round in July/August, because Leonard Fournette 3rd-round and David Johnson 4th-round were like two high-end RB1s to add to the roster. Many of you are sitting with CEH (or other RB)+Mahomes+Fournette+DJ as your first 4 players in a redraft, Best Ball, etc. – and last night you saw firsthand the genius of it.

If I had been able to see David Johnson, the player from the first series of this game, in the preseason…just that one series – I would have made everyone never leave the draft without him. I was pretty much there regardless. On the first series of this game, I could see the DJ of old ‘floating’ gracefully through the line of scrimmage on his first run and then I really saw it on the pass route he ran on their first 3rd-down (that was stopped early with penalty).

All the proof you need is right here on his TD run...

*Watch the full speed play but wait and really focus on the slow-mo replay. It will take your breath away – most NFL RBs cannot do what he just did here. That first jump/hop and burst…not human. And that my friends is ‘old 2016 DJ3K’…back into our hearts once again, and good old RC has his genius status restored!!

Link: https://youtu.be/p_alvL7tkkg

My life is now complete…DJ is back.

All you, ‘Are you sure?’ or ‘He’s too injury prone’ naysayers…you lost this round. Now suffer DJ3K’s fantasy wrath all season.

By comparison, Duke Johnson (5-14-0, 0-0-0/1) looked terrible…and then not comparing him to DJ, Duke still looked terrible. The old Duke that was leaner and swifter years ago has added weight/muscle and slowed down and is 0.0% threat to DJ touches the rest of the season.

For sure, Duke is not a threat for Week 2…as the Texans brought up RB Scottie Phillips from the practice squad today, so expect Duke to be out a while. Please, don’t forget…there were ESPN types telling you this preseason that Duke was in a great spot to beat out David Johnson or split with him and be a sleeper (thus the 4th-round DJ rankings/availability weeks ago). Guess what? ESPN, you will suffer the wrath of DJ3K opposition as well, as you have since he first hit the league.

What is it like to be the best scout in all of football you ask? Feels pretty damn good today. Unless you were referring to Jac Collinsworth, then I’m not sure how he feels at the yacht club today drinking mimosas and getting ready for his one hour of work Sunday night, which he will make more money on then I will all year with my business.

Why were so many people wanting to hate David Johnson this year? AND yet he STILL won’t get any of the respect due. All they’ll talk about is Clyde Edwards-Helaire from this game.

Next Monday-Tuesday-Wednesday, when this DJ event is somewhat forgotten in the sea of other performances Sunday/Monday, and people not really into DJ properly anyway – you can try to acquire him if you missed out. You should try. Trade some hot Week 1 WR for him or whatever head fake you can use.

 

 -- Speaking of FFM guys…Tyreek Hill (5-46-1-/6) looked fine too. For the first time in many years, I don’t have much Tyreek share unless we’re talking Dynasty.

Am I worried about 6 targets in this game? No…kinda, no. He seems to be becoming a lower target but high hit rate/high production off the lower targets player.

Targets in each of Hill’s last 9 games (back to 2019 and the playoffs): 8-8-7-5-5-4-7-16-6…the 16 were in the Super Bowl. Outside of the 16-target game, 7.1 targets per game the other 7 games. He’s not Michael Thomas or Davante Adams level targeting but is just as FF lethal…more so in non-PPR.

 

 -- The KC wide receiver I would worry about is Mecole Hardman (1-6-0/1). I mean, I’ve been warning of this problem all along…and now it was a clear message in this game – Mecole Hardman isn’t a very good NFL WR.

Keep in mind – the Chiefs traded up to get Mecole, as all the NFL analysts cooed at what a genius stroke it was.

With a full offseason of prep and a year of experience gained…Hardman had one target in this game, while Demarcus Robinson (3-20-0/6) had six. Impressive speed does not mean you’re a good NFL wide receiver prospect (see: The John Ross story). *DRob played 33 snaps and Mecole just 20 on offense.

You know who else comes to mind as a then-lauded prospect that I said wasn’t a good WR in the face of all of the scouting world telling us they were: Riley Ridley. I could just see the problems on tape. I know what I’m doing. You know who this is all bad news for – Jerry Jeudy. Another highly rated WR that I just didn’t get at all/made me scared that he wasn’t just overrated…but not really good/a possible bust. We’ll see. Jeudy is better than R. Ridley or Hardman, but I still think there’s a big problem about to be revealed.

 

 -- Speaking of wastes of time at WR...why is Kenny Stills (0-0-0/2) still in the NFL? He could at least try and look like he cares.

Randall Cobb (2-23-0/3) and Brandin Cooks (2-20-0/4) didn’t do much either but they were at least trying it seemed…their issues were more Deshaun Watson’s fault. But Kenny Stills…he’s just going through the motions, stealing paychecks.

...just like Sammy Watkins (7-82-1/9) will after this game.

Last season (2019), Watkins had 9 catches for 198 yards and 3 TDs in Week 1…and then never scored a TD the rest of the regular season. Nor did he have a game over 65 yards receiving the rest of the season – until the playoffs. Watkins is at his best on national TV games or high-profile games…when he knows most people are watching him and he needs to step it up or get caught in his ‘act’. He has one big game and goes to sleep for a while figuring ‘that’s good enough for now’.

Watkins will be on our ‘sell high’ list for sure next week.

Part of Watkins’s great game – getting a lot of Vernon Hargreaves (4 tackles) in coverage…a guy who may be the worst CB in the NFL. Lonnie Johnson (2 tackles) or John Reid (6 tackles) will be starting over a cut Hargreaves soon.

The good news for Houston is – Bradley Roby (6 tackles, 1 TFL) looks great and gives the Texans security on one side of the field. Now they just need to fix the other side of pass defense.

 

 -- The problem with Houston’s defense is…they have no real pass rush prowess anymore. Average linebackers. A hole with Vernon Hargreaves for the moment. J.J. Watt (3 tackles, 2 QB hits) doesn’t have ‘it’ anymore.

The Chiefs defense has no such issues. A nice, high end pass rush and low-key very good cover corners. You can beat the Chiefs running the ball at their weaker linebackers, but once you’re down by 20+ points in the 3rd-quarter to them it’s hard to stick with the run game.

Is the Chiefs-DST a neat play ahead for FF? They play six teams in a row absolutely committed to the run, and all have better defenses to support the run game offense than the Texans did. It will be interesting to see if KC struggles some with the LAC-BAL-NE-LV-BUF-DEN stretch ahead with those teams trying to play ‘four corners’ against them to keep Mahomes off the field – but teams willing to stay committed to it and with defenses that might get a few stops on KC to help stick to the run game.

 

 -- I went all this time and haven’t discussed Clyde Edwards-Helaire (25-138-1, 0-0-0/2).

This is exactly what you can expect from CEH…a Kareem Hunt-esque performer. Patrick Mahomes’s presence clears out a lot of running area, and CEH is in position to capitalize on it. Jonathan Taylor would be a 2,000+ yard rusher with KC this year, but it’s CEH who gets the gold. He looked fine…not magical, not problematic. He looked like a good running back would in this offense – and that’s great for fantasy for him.

The sweet 138 yards rushing debut did conceal some ‘concerns’…

1) CEH got stuffed around the goal line several times. He’s not a great goal line back. He should get 8-10+ TDs this season just ‘being there’ but I wonder if Darrel Williams (7-23-0, 2-7-0/2) will see more goal line work if it becomes an issue.

2) CEH wasn’t a heavy part of the passing game, but it’s only Week 1 and one game result and heavy targets to him weren’t needed. I’m just noting we didn’t see anything exciting here for PPR, yet…and might Darrel Williams better 3rd-down/passing down presence lead to some PPR disappointment.

CEH is going to be a top 5-10 fantasy RB in all formats this year…he’s a good back in a GREAT situation. The best CEH news was – they showed him that respect right away. 25 carries Week 1 is a pretty nice ‘vote of confidence’ for CEH. You won’t see many/any RBs hit 25 carries this week potentially. A rookie just did in his debut with the defending champs.

 

 -- DeShaun Watson (20-32 for 253 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 6-27-1) played about as lazy, uninspired, and ‘D’ grade level of passer skill game as a ‘top’ QB could. Wildly unimpressed with what I saw from Watson here.

Mahomes lost Tyreek last year…and never missed a beat. Tom Brady is always losing WRs and was always fine his whole career. I don’t want to hear ‘well, Hopkins was taken away’. Well, then should they have traded Watson and kept Hopkins?

I’m not dumping Watson stock based on this one game – it could be that the Chiefs are just that good on defense + the Texans need more time with this WR group to get adjusted. However, it looked terrible this week. Watson playing with little emotion, in my opinion, was most shocking of all.

It really makes me wonder what my own effort level would be as an NFL QB or as a fantasy writer/football scout, if I suddenly was handed a $500M+ contract with $300+ million guaranteed. I’m guessing my work levels would tail off a tad from superhuman to just human. As a QB, I’d not likely try to grind that extra yard versus running out of bounds…or hanging in the pocket long versus just getting rid of it to avoid a hit. Likely all of us would have some decline if suddenly paid enough for multiple lifetimes.

I’ll be very interested to see how the Texans bounce back from this. I bet Vegas hates them Week 2 vs. BAL (if the Ravens handle the Browns Week 1)…and I bet that will make Houston a good ATS bet, because of the public hate emanating from this highly visible game.

 

 -- Will Fuller (8-112-0/10) was Watson’s top target for sure. But, were you like me – I didn’t see any ‘dazzle’ with Fuller as this new #1 WR…did you? I mean, it’s nice he was there and got the looks, especially in the deficit as the defense softened…nice for FF. But as an NFL observer…I just don’t see the big deal over Will Fuller the NFL WR. He doesn’t move, act, give the impression of a #1 and/or ‘star’ WR, ever (in my eyes).

He’ll be good for FF, though…until his typical injury pops up.

 

 -- The one Texan that stood out, besides DJ…the one moving with urgency…the one I’d heard a lot of good vibes on in training camp, but didn’t really buy into it for FF was Jordan Akins (2-39-1/2).

I think he has to go onto deeper roster FF team’s radars to consider for TE depth/gambles ahead. He can be the main TE receiving threat here, on a team with a bunch of ‘meh’ WR2-3s.

Akins has the athleticism to matter, but the Texans don’t seem to make the TE a real/consistent receiving threat in their offense…either because of O’Brien or Watson. Akins had a 2 TD game Week 3 last season and then never had a TD in any of his other 15 games of the 2019 season…and he played a good amount of snaps (50-60%) in most games.

 

 -- Any old kicker will do!!! That’s what you think, and then…

Ka’imi Fairbairn 2/2 XP, 0-1 FG = 1 FF point

Harrison Butker 4/4 XP, 2-2 FG = 10 FF points

Any old kicker will do just netted you -9 points this week versus paying the price for a better kicker.

 

 

Snap Counts of interest:

 

46 = CEH

23 = Darrel Williams

 

59 = Tyreek

55 = Watkins

33 = D. Robinson

20 = Hardman

 

47 = Fuller

46 = Cobb

31 = Cooks

22 = Stills

 

48 = Akins

25 = Fells

R.C. Fischer

FFM

27 August 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 6 Game Analysis: Chargers 34, Jets 28

 

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

 

Just when you think the Chargers can’t get anymore embarrassing, then they go out and win this game.

It’s a ‘win’ that’s a ‘loss’ in my book…how Anthony Lynn is not fired right now is beyond me. Heck, he’ll probably keep his job another season. He’s fleeced the NFL, like so many NFL coaches – he’d be a better high school coach. Central casting for a TV show/movie coach…not good in the NFL. Matt Patricia is complained about constantly and no one says anything about Lynn.

The Chargers have invented ever-new ways to lose games after getting out to leads for a half+, and in this game they tried desperately to keep their ‘get a big lead and lose it in remarkable fashion’ streak alive, but alas…Lynn couldn’t ruin it. The Jets game-tying chance landed short at the end.

The Chargers led the winless Jets 24-6 at halftime. Eventually pushing to a 31-13 lead with 20 minutes left in the game. No way the Jets would come back on the Chargers in that kind of deficit! Of course, the Jets went on a 15-3 run to pull it to 34-26 with 4+ minutes left, and then held the Chargers next drive, got the ball back and drove down into the LAC territory but could convert.

However, the failed drive didn’t thwart the Chargers from trying to lose it with seconds remaining.

On 4th & 14 with 0:08 left, the Chargers decided to punt…but snapped the punt and let the punter run (from his own 20 or so) into the end zone to run out the clock. The punter ran straight to the back of the end zone and waited and got pushed out with 0:01 left. Instead of running around the end zone and heading to the far corner for defenders to have to chase longer to get to him, in order to run the clock to 0:00…the punter ran straight to the middle back and waited, which allowed the defense to get to him quicker, and he got pushed out on purpose with 0:01 remaining. Then instead of an ensuing onside or squib kick, they kicked it off long and allowed a return…but it was halted, and LAC won.

The Chargers tried hard to lose to the lowly Jets, but they failed. They are now (3-7). Get this – their 3 wins are against the Bengals (which they should’ve lost) opening day, the Jags, and the Jets. Three wins over teams who have combined for 3 wins between them this season. I cannot rest until LAC gets its 9th loss and I win my ‘under’ preseason bet on their 7.5 win total. This loss really would’ve helped.

The Jets are (0-10) but playing better and better…they should’ve beat New England Week 9. They flustered Buffalo Week 7. They roared back, didn’t fold, here against the Chargers. The Jets are going to win a game, just not sure who against. Could be Miami this week.

 

 

Fantasy Player Notes…

 

 -- Once again, Kalen Ballage (16-44-0, 7-27-0/9) was the clear, lead RB for the Chargers. We’re all excited by this, but note his three games as ‘the man’ for LAC:

16.3 carries, 60.33 yards (3.7 ypc) rushing…with his tallies getting lower and lower in yards per carry each game. He’s just not a lead RB for a long period of time. He can fill-in, have a moment, but he is not an every game lead worker. He has always had bad vision and bad instincts/reads as a runner but is built like a mother. He can play physical and get yards with some blocking. Looks like a star, physically, but isn’t one. There’s a reason why he keeps bouncing from team-to-team.

I don’t have a discriminating RB palette right now. Any port in a storm. Ballage has RB1 activity in PPR for now, so I’ll ride it. Looks like we got one more week before Austin Ekeler returns to steal all the gold.

Remember, how excited everyone was for Joshua Kelley (4-0-0, 2-40/2)? He’s now down to 3.0 yards per carry this season (on 102 carries). Some of that is on the O-Line.

 

 -- Just wanted to note really quick…Justin Herbert (37-49 for 366 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT) is awesome.

His game featured how bad Anthony Lynn is at coaching. So, he possesses this nuclear weapon in Hebert…and the guy has 290 passing yards BY HALFTIME and then gets scared and pulls back the reins and tries to run it out with his off-the-street RB and terrible O-Line and goes away from the only thing he’s got (Herbert). Which, of course, allows the Jets right back in the game.

The Chargers should just throw every play.

No, scratch that. I don’t want Anthony Lynn to get to 8 wins and stay coaching here and beat my ‘under’ win total bet. Lose two more games, then throw every play. Lynn will probably bench Herbert for Tyrod soon, as was his plan all along…his crafty eye said Tyrod was better than Herbert.

You wanna tell me again that NFL head coaches know more than fans/lay people because they are with the players all the time and we’re not? Lynn saw Herbert all summer…and went confidently with Tyrod. That tells you what you need to know.

 

 -- Denzel Mims (3-71-0/8) was the recipient of the 4th & 9 throw from midfield that ended the Jets drive/chance to score/tie the game. It was a one-on-one coverage bomb and Mims got his hands on it but great coverage and no chance to catch it really.

I point this out because every week it seems like Mims takes another little baby step ahead in trust and the style/toughness of the catches that he’s making. He has more steps to go, but a little storm is brewing with him…he’s getting a little better each week. And I like the way either Darnold or Flacco have been throwing to him in times of trouble.

Trevor Lawrence + Mims might be a thing in 2021 after all.

It’s still early in this process, but there are good signs showing.

 

 -- Ty Johnson (4-17-0/6) got some 3rd-down back/hurry up offense time and saw nice targeting but he didn’t make any magic from them. There is some hope he is in this role again Week 12 with Perine on IR) and then gets some carries too. You’d think they Jets would want to see what they got in Ty, but they will likely go with Frank Gore as heavy as possible…just ‘because’.

 

 -- Side note: Jamison Crowder (1-16-0/4) has kinda disappeared, but he got hurt and missed Weeks 7-8, returned with Flacco for a 2-catch Week 9 and then a bye and then his dud with Flacco. It seems like he’s dead.

However, Weeks 1-6 WITH Darnold, Crowder was averaging 7.3 catches, 95.8 yards, and 0.5 TDs per game. The #7 PPR PPG WR in fantasy. He’s Darnold’s guy.

I mention this because you can probably acquire him for near nothing, thrown into deals (if trading is still happening) – if you want to gamble on him, gambling that Darnold is back Week 12 (or 13).

 

 -- IDPs of note…

Jets rookie SAF Ashtyn Davis (12 tackles, 1 TFL) had his first big tackle count game of 2020…it’s been brewing, as I’ve been hinting for a few weeks. He could close strong for IDP because the Jets are on defense quite a bit.

LAC rookie LB Kenneth Murray (7 tackles, 1 TFL) had his best game, for IDP, in a few weeks. He’s in coverage or blitzing (to no avail) some to take away from pure interior linebacker tackle tallies up the middle. I’m not down on him, but he’s not useful right now…but once Lynn is gone, and he grows an extra year – he’ll be a top LB in the NFL someday.  

 

 

Snap Counts of Interest:

 

55 = Ballage

16 = Pope

11 = Kelley

 

59 = Perriman

56 = Crowder

54 = Mims

 

35 = Gore

14 = Ty Johnson

11 = Perine

R.C. Fischer

FFM

26 August 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 15 Game Analysis: Colts 27, Texans 20 (Short Report)

 

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I normally write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

SHORT REPORT is an attempt at ‘just the facts’ report on this Week 15 game with a Week 16/title week focus for conveying what we need to know.

 

 

GAME ANALYSIS:

After the 1st-quarter it was 14-0 Indy, and an easy/expected victory seemed at hand…and then the Texans just waltzed back into the game with Indy adrift (as they seem to do every week) and the game was tied 20-20 with 7+ minutes left.

The Colts got their S together and scored a TD with 1:52 remaining. The Texans got the ball back and drove right down the field. 4th & 5 for Houston, in the Indy red zone…a completed pass to Keke Coutee for a 1st-down with less than 0:30 remaining, and as he made his way to the end zone he was hit from behind, the ball flew into the end zone, a mad dash for the loose ball, Jordan Akins had it his way but as he pounced on it – it squirted out to an incoming Indy defender and touchback…ball game. The second time in three weeks that the Texans were looking to tie the game late from 2-yards away only to fumble the ball over to Indy. Two losses to Indy that might have been wins but Houston blew it.

The Colts are now (10-4)…a very lucky 10-win team. They have at PIT and JAX the final two games. If they end up tied (record-wise) with Tennessee, the Titans (I believe) win the tiebreaker (if TEN doesn’t lose to HOU Week 17) and the AFC South. If Indy wins out, they have a good shot to win the division. Going to crumbling Pittsburgh and winning Week 16 is the do-or-die game (considering JAX Week 17).

Houston inexplicably falls to (4-10). A coach fired 4 games in. Injuries all over. PED suspension with Will Fuller. What a disaster this season ahs been. Don’t worry, it’s nothing Marvin Lewis can’t fix.

 

 

WHAT DO WE NEED TO KNOW FOR WEEK 16?

 -- Was this a turning point for David Johnson (8-27-0, 11-106-0/11) in the passing game…15 weeks into the season…can we get excited now?

Yes.

The first couple passes in this game was Deshaun scrambling and finding a scramble drill DJ broken loose 10+ yards downfield for some nice catch and run action – nothing on purpose. But then, as the game evolved, for the first time all year, Watson was setting up the defense…sending WRs deep, Watson looking deep, and then looking to a drifting open DJ for some wide-open outlet valve pass plays.

They could’ve been doing this all season. It took 15 weeks for Deshaun to realize it. I don’t want to hear this guy is an elite QB. No one could be that dumb, other than his coaches, to possess David Johnson on purpose – and not realize he’s an ace in the passing game…the ultimate mismatch…the easiest throw Watson could make all season…over and over – like what Drew Brees does with Alvin Kamara.

So, will this keep up Week 16?

I think so. I hope so. It looked like Watson finally gets it. I’ve been watching DJ closely, for obvious reasons, all season…and have been beyond frustrated with how they’ve not thrown to him at all…even with him wide open right in front of Watson. This looked like a turn. Will it be an 11-catch game again? Probably not, but the Texans will either run all over Cincy or if they get down and start throwing heavy…DJ will be involved like a swollen J.D. McKissic.

There’s DJ hope once again.

 

 -- Jonathan Taylor (16-83-1, 4-12-0/5) is starting to ‘get it’ too. For the last few weeks, he has looked better and better…not just more touches but gaining in confidence…making moves instead of preoccupied with where he’s supposed to be or keeping two-hands-on-the-ball and curling up into contact. Now, he’s starting to feel it…now, we’re starting to see him making moves on defenders. This is the game I saw the ‘old’/the college-great Taylor flashing at the pro level.

Best running back in the 2020 class. Best pure runner of the ball…him and Dobbins.

This was also a game where I saw Indy really designing the offensive plan on Taylor’s back. Much less rotating in and out. He played 70% of the snaps here.

 

 -- Philip Rivers (22-28 for 228 yards, 2 TDs/0 INTs) versus tough defenses (considering not missing any top corners for the game, and their ranking, etc.) this season…

55.2%, 190 yards, 1 TD/0 INT = Week 4 at CHI (loss)

63.7%, 243 yards, 0 TD/2 INTs = Week 5 at CLE (loss)

58.1%, 227 yards, 0 TDs/1 INT = Week 9 v. BAL (loss)

Less than 60% Comp. Pct, less than 250 yards every game, 1 TD/3 INTs, (0-3) record

The rankings (by yds per gm allowed) of all the other pass defenses he faced this year, in the order he played them…

#28 (JAX)

#24 (MIN)

#30 (NYJ)

#20 (CIN)

#27 (DET)

#29 (TEN)

#9 (GB) *Maybe should be included in the ‘tough’ list but I don’t see the GB pass defense as ‘tough’, but they’re OK. CHI, CLE, BAL were much better back the weeks Indy faced them – they were as healthy as they’ve been all season and really took it to Rivers.

#29 (TEN)

#23 (HOU)

#26 (LV)

#23 (HOU)

 

He faces the toughest defense by far he’s faced in 2020 this week – the #2 ranked Steelers. How do you think this will go for Rivers…and the WRs…? Probably, not well.

 

 -- Brandin Cooks (6-59-0/7) since the Texans Week 9 bye…

4.8 rec., 69.3 yards, 0.17 TDs per game…7.9 non-PPR/12.7 PPR PPG

No TDs his last 5 games…1 TD his last 7 games.

WR2 in PPR… not so good non-PPR. Cooks had a hot streak Week 5-9 and has been WR2-2.5 since.

 

 

 

ANY 2021 FUTURE THOUGHTS (Dynasty Offseason or Stash Items):

 -- Kahale Warring (2-32-0/2) had a couple nice targets/solid catches but he’s still playing very limited snaps. He likely won’t get a ‘start’ until Week 17…if then.

He’s more of a 2021 hopeful, but we have to see who the head coach is. However, Jordan Akins is a free agent. Darren Fells is aging out. Warring is the prime player remaining for the new regime…and he has draft stock – a former early 3rd-round pick.

 

 

IDP/DST NOTES:

 -- All that stuff above about Philip Rivers’s problem with tough pass defense…especially playing tougher defenses outdoors – Rivers has been in a dome the past five weeks/all December. This week outdoors, moderate temps (nice for DEC), against a top pass defense.

I like the Steelers-DST just fine here because Rivers isn’t as good in the cold, and against tougher defenses. His arm is just not there anymore, and he has no mobility.

Rivers got beat down by the AFC North this year. BAL and CLE rocked him, and they were getting killed by Cincy Week 6, but had a furious comeback and luckily won.

 

 

SNAP COUNTS OF INTEREST:

 

38 = Taylor

16 = Hines

 

55 = David Johnson

10 = B Howell

04 = Sc Phillips

 

41 = Doyle

25 = Alie-Cox

19 = Burton 

R.C. Fischer

Total Football Advisor

01 January 2020

2020 NFL Draft Scouting Report: QB Nathan Rourke, Ohio