A Fantasy and Handicapping look at the 2022-23 Divisional Round Playoffs
Taking a look at each of the 2022-23 Divisional Round playoff games from a straight up win/loss perspective, an ATS perspective and then looking at some DFS and prop betting options.
The Computer picks and the group expert picks will be out Saturday morningET.
Jacksonville at Kansas City (-8.5)
I don't care that KC handled Jacksonville Week 10…it's almost an advantage, you'd think, that Jacksonville has been-there-done-that. And, actually, I thought Jacksonville showed something in that game…a turning point almost -- they are (7-1) since that loss.
JAX got down 20-0…and then the Jags outscored KC 17-7 to the finish. Jacksonville didn't really pose a threat, but they never gave up and did hang around a bit trying to make it a one score game but never could.
KC is going to do what they do -- a lot of passing and a lot of rotations of players. I think JAX will counter by not cowering to KC…they'll not try to hide behind a run game and slow it down and keep it close. I think they'll attack…and go-for-it on several 4th-downs, etc. The X-factor could be Doug Pederson as a better coach than the Andy Reid staff.
KC's trend is they almost always WIN but usually don't cover, that's the way I am playing it.
From a Fantasy/DFS/Prop perspective…
I'm not in love with many or any of the props here.
Isiah Pacheco OVER 48.5 yds rushing is starting to feel right at -115 on DK (50.5 on FD)
I like the Engram and Zay catch count props, but the money lines are high. Better for DFS play potentially.
Josh Allen has woken up in recent weeks…4.0 sacks, 13 QB hits total in his last 6 games. He's +152 to record a sack on FD.
Rayshawn Jenkins is listed at 6.5 tackles o/u…the over is +100. He has had 7 or more tackles in four of his last 5 games. He's been a big part of the JAX defensive improvement the last month+.
Andrew DFS likes the value on Isiah Pacheco and JuJu Smith-Schuster, and really likes the potential pop for the DFS value on Kadarius Toney.
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NY Giants at Philadelphia (-7.5)
I start with the same feelings on NYG now that I had last week analyzing their MIN matchup -- this Giants team has an emerging O-Line and D-Line and when you consider how important controlling/attacking/protecting the line of scrimmage is -- that's a huge advantage to NYG, and why I picked them to cover last week.
I picked NYG to outright win last week IF Adoree Jackson was back practicing in full and was gonna go into the game playing unrestricted, not ‘giving it a-go'. Adoree got fully cleared and thus the Vikings pass game was stunted more than people thought it would.
So, how does this NYG O-Line/D-Line matchup with Philly? Well, the Eagles have a better O-Line/D-Line than the Vikings, so this one is not as easy to favor/pick NYG. A lot of this rides on Philly star OL Lane Johnson being really back 100%, and he was full practicing and off the injury report Friday.
If you paint it with a broad stroke, you could say the O-Line/D-Line matchups are about even. The offensive weapons are about even…Saquon makes a difference, but so too A.J. Brown/DeVonta Smith. Give an advantage to Philly at QB and maybe the entire key -- advantage to Philly at TE (Goedert) vs. the NYG TE defense. You've seen T.J. Hockenson have silly-good numbers in some games recently…both against NYG.
On defense, both teams aren't great at linebacker but both good in the secondary…slight lean to Philly in the back seven.
NYG isn't far off in the key areas, but they mostly are even or inferior at all positions and superior at none except kicker. The Eagles are the slightly better team (given their key injuries), coming off a bye, and playing at home -- you have to lean Eagles to win. But it's not crazy to take NYG to cover because it's not a huge gap between them and all it takes is a favorable moment or two and NYG can keep this close/cover with a shot to win.
From a Fantasy/DFS/Prop perspective…
The Eagles' run defense has allowed 110+ total rushing yards to opposing teams in five straight games, and in 10 of their last 13 games. The Giants will oblige by throwing Saquon at them as much as they can…despite the fact they shutdown Saquon Week 14 (9-28-0 rushing) but he was also hurt and only played 20 snaps. Saquon should see 20+ carries in this game to control time of possession and take advantage of the NYG O-Line. Saquon is 69.5 o/u -110 on DK.
Daniel Jones has been running the ball as a weapon most of the season, but especially the last six games…three 70+ yard rushing games in his last 6 games. DJ is o/u 45.5 yards rushing on DK and FD.
Richie James should have an opportunity from the slot with Avonte Maddox likely out again this week…and James had been DJ's #1 look for most of the last 5-6 weeks. So-so wild card output for James shouldn't throw you off the scent. I am convinced we moved the needle on the James yardage prop -- as we pointed it out in our subscriber live stream notes early in the week when DK had him 42.5 yards o/u -115 while FD had it at 45.5 for -114. Today, DK switched it +3 yards higher to match FD. I took a light taste of the OVER at 42.5 on DK before the flip.
Dallas Goedert should be the Philly plan to try and take advantage of what T.J. Hockenson has been doing to the NYG defense -- destroying them. And Goedert is better than TJH. Goedert props are rising 49.5 yards o/u on FD. I have taken some positions in the OVER.
Andrew DFS is back liking Richie James as a DFS value this week, he and I both on James the last two weeks for DFS and props. Andrew also likes the Daniel Jones value and the long shot cheap value on Lawrence Cager.
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Cincinnati at Buffalo (-5.5)
No Cappa and Williams for the Cincy O-Line, this on top of La'el lost for the season a few games ago…the Bengals O-Line is wounded, but if any QB can overcome bad blocking…it's Joe Burrow. Still, it is asking a lot to overcome versus Buffalo…but Buffalo did just barely beat Miami and a 3rd-string starter going on the road to Buffalo.
I really don't know what will happen in this game with the O-Line issues. My head says the Cincy O-Line issue is too much to overcome. My gut says Cincy is the best team in the NFL and will find a way to overcome.
Burrow may have to throw 40+ times, but last year with O-Line issues he never did such a thing (never past 38 attempts last playoffs) and they got to the Super Bowl. Buffalo could play conservative and get trapped and get down and not come back. Nothing would surprise me in this game.
I'm going to just take the points, for a pick, and hope Cincy covers…or wins outright.
From a Fantasy/DFS/Prop perspective…
I don't love any of the props in this game because I feel like I have no feel for this game. Cincy may play normal…or be forced to panic. There's no real super-weak spot for either defense to try to expose. There's no sneaky receiver rising up…it's Chase v. Diggs, we all know this.
The one thing getting my attention…I think Samaje Perine plays more snaps than usual for Burrow blocking/protection…then he beats his FD Rush + Rec. OVER 30.5 yards -114. But a small interest/bet.
We're not in love with any DFS options here, per se. Samaje is a long shot dart throw at a cheap price.
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Dallas at San Francisco (-3.5)
I've said it all week in public and in more detail to subscribers -- Dallas whooping Tampa Bay was not a quality win, because the Buccaneers are terrible (thus the coaching staff firings that happened this week). But because Dallas played well against ‘Brady', and it was seen by a large audience on national television, the America's Team zealots are activated -- and thus line spread is -3.5, when it probably should be 6+. I guess we just forgive Dallas for looking like garbage the week prior vs. Washington? All fixed with a win over a bad, dying Tampa team?
I think the 49ers will roll over Dallas in a big way…however Dallas lets them, air or ground. The Cowboys likely play it like Seattle did -- stack the run and try and force Brock Purdy to beat them, and then he does. I'd rather have Purdy than Dak starting for me right now…and then from there, the 49ers are better at every position group on the field than Dallas…including kicker.
This could wind up a garage time game for outputs. I don't see any case for Dallas winning this game. All anyone can say is -- did you see the way they stopped Brady last week? Yeah, so did most of TBs opponents. The Bucs weren't 25th in the league in scoring and fired all their offensive staff this week because it was an offensive juggernaut. Let's see if Dallas can do that to SF…I don't think they can. The Cowboys have allowed 26 or more points in a game in three of their last 5 games…only holding down Josh Dobbs and Tom Brady in that span.
From a Fantasy/DFS/Prop perspective…
I've been liking some unders on prop bets.
– Zeke has rushed for under 37 yards three straight games. His ypc has been crashing the last 5 games. Now, he's facing the #2 in the NFL run defense in the 49ers. FD had 37.5 as the o/u line early in the week. I like the under…if SF gets up fast EE is coming out/not running as much.
– Dalton Schultz has been hot, and he had two TDs on national TV last week…so, the public is in love. The 49ers are TE killers and have been for 2+ years. I like the original UNDER on Schultz 46.5 yards at -114 (FD)...and it was 42.5 (-125) on DK, but our subscribers bet this from our insider/streaming notes and drove the props against us, now 41.5 UNDER at -120 on DK and UNDER 45.5 on FD, but at -130 now.
I like the Purdy overs because the public/media refuses to see what's right in front of their eyes…
– Brock Purdy has thrown for 2 or more TDs in a game every game he's played this season. Dallas is not a fearful defense…so, the Purdy 1.5 TD pass OVER looks like a gimmie at (-108) on FD.
– I'm considering the Brock Purdy OVER 236.5 on FD for -114. He's been over 280+ in two of his last 3 games, as he only gets better with time. And as defenses dare him to beat them…and he obliges.
Andrew likes the Purdy DFS valuations as well, as the public is still not onboard with him.
