- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 2 Game Analysis: Rams 37, Eagles 19
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
The Rams stormed out to a 21-3 early 2nd-quarter lead and it looked like a blowout was at hand. However, the Eagles climbed back into – cutting the lead to 24-19 early 4th-quarter. The Rams stepped on the accelerator again and put Philly away 37-19.
The Rams are just playing fundamental football. Jared Goff is being smart. The Rams defense has been solid. They are getting up quickly in games and letting the opposing team make the mistakes. They are not great, but they are good…and winning. A hiccup might come this week against another sound team – the Bills. Buffalo is not likely to be outsmarted or outhustled by the Rams.
The Eagles are playing for their lives this week. If they lose to the Bengals and fall to (0-3) there may be a different kind of rioting in Philadelphia. They face at SF, at PIT, BAL Weeks 4-5-6. The Eagles are staring at a 1-5/0-6 start. Get your Jalen Hurts lottery tickets ready to go.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Let me talk about the five RBs involved in this game, and I’ll list them in reverse order of best-talent-to-worst-talent…so, we start with the least talented. This doesn’t mean worst/least for FF…just my scouting eye best and worst on-field talents…
#5) Cam Akers (3-13-0/5) – He’s not terrible, but he’s very inexperienced and making the least impact right now. He may miss a week or two with his rib injury.
#4) Malcolm Brown (11-47-0) – Solid, experienced but his FF-value goes up in smoke when Darrell Henderson got his shot.
#3) Miles Sanders (20-95-1, 3-36-0/7) – He’s a perfectly fine RB but he’s not a stud or star…he's a guy getting carries for emotional reasons. They ‘love’ him. The media has pushed him so hard everyone just assumes he’s great. Every time I watch him, I walk away unimpressed. Not that he isn’t worthy of the NFL, but he should not be the centerpiece of an NFL offense. The Eagles have done this to themselves.
Sanders will be fine, probably great for FF because the Eagles have nothing else. They’re all-in on a ‘C’ grade RB.
#2) Boston Scott (4-19-0, 3-24-0/3) – He should be in a 50/50 split with Sanders but isn’t. Every time I watch an Eagles game and see Scott running inside, I wonder why Scott isn’t the clear starter over Sanders. Scott, for his size, is a tough runner…but also very fleet of foot, really fleet of foot. I’d almost consider him #1 here.
The Eagles don’t see him that way so all you can do is hold/wait for a Sanders injury. Scott is the kind of back that will get overlooked forever, only given a chance if injury forces it.
#1) Darrell Henderson (12-81-1, 2-4-0-0/3) – Speaking of the kind of back that gets overlooked forever…
It was a good week for my scouting career…we saw Kyler and Diontae really come into their own Week 2 and show that they are real. I went back and looked and saw my CFM scouting grades re-remembered we had Chase Claypool as the #1 most talented/highest-graded NFL WR prospect for the 2020 NFL Draft…and no one else would have had him close to that, and it seemed silly a few weeks/months ago. How about now? Then there was the unplanned emergence of Darrell Henderson here. It’s been a good week even if all my fantasy players are getting hurt/gone for the season.
If Cam Akers and Malcolm Brown don’t get hurt here…Henderson stays buried. But they both got hurt, and Henderson finally got extra work…and a quasi-star was born. Henderson has some of the traits of Boston Scott, only Hendo is bigger and stronger/tougher. Henderson is like if peak Devonta Freeman was a great athlete too – smaller/compact brick wall runner but with speed and hops.
Henderson had big/long runs in this game, he had nice screen pass plays, he caught long passes down the field, he blew up defenders for second chance yards (and for his TD). He did it all in 29 snaps (42%) of the game played.
In a normal world, this would mean Henderson is in line for more work or the starting role going forward. But this is the NFL, and Cam Akers is supposed to be a magical unicorn rookie…and the Rams can’t have you knowing they valued Akers more than Henderson to start 2020. So, you think this is the beginning of a DH uprising…but we’ll see. It will be eventually…just not willingly or quickly.
If Akers plays, Henderson might get 3-4 touches and comments after the game that ‘we gotta get Henderson the ball more’ (the kiss of death). If Akers is out, then Henderson gets another serious shot to steal all the gold here and force the Rams to make him the main guy (whether he starts or not).
Henderson’s day is coming, but how fast depends upon Akers’ ribs. I’d guess the Rams would hold Akers out this week…why wouldn’t they? If so, get excited for DH…except Buffalo has a high-ranked run defense…except they’ve played the two worst run teams in the league to get there so far. My Henderson rankings are based around Akers playing or not.
Outside of that…take a bow – Darrell Henderson is no longer a ‘concept’. He is real. It really happened Week 2…and he’s still inexperienced/has upside, much upside to run.
-- So, speaking of nice FFM moments…Tyler Higbee (5-54-3/5) scored 3 TDs this week. I didn’t predict Higbee would be a star coming out of college, I was just willing to take the ride Higbee was showing us he could go on late last season.
Five breakout performances last year + his two games this year…Higbee’s last 7 games:
7.3 rec., 88.0 yards, 0.58 TDs per game
12.2 FF PPG/19.5 PPR PPG for fantasy in that time span – both these FF PPG numbers would have been #1 with a bullet in the 2019 season among TEs.
So far this season, he’s #3 in non-PPR, #5 in PPR PPG among TEs…pushed by the huge Week 2.
But what about the low targeting? Targeting is nice, but I like completions/catches better. Sometimes a lot of targeting is just a lot of errant throwing. I’d like high catches AND high targets, but I don’t want to thumb my nose at good/high catches/yards/TDs because I’m whining about targets. Logan Thomas gets more targets, but will he score for FF off them because of Haskins misfirings?
Higbee is a strong TE1 this season, we’ll see how strong as we go.
-- I was wrong about Van Jefferson (4-45-0/5). I thought he’d struggle to transition to the NFL more than he has. I thought he might be a bit too soft as a receiver. I think he might struggle with better coverage/attention but he’s getting to be the under-the-radar guy for LAR and it works OK.
Jefferson’s rise takes food out of the mouths of Woods-Kupp, just enough to throw back to WR2s not WR1s.
-- Jared Goff (20-27 for 267 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT) numbers since the Higbee uprising/offensive change to the passing game:
14 TDs/5 INTs…2.0 TDs per game and 312.1 yards passing per game.
This is a guy the media/fantasy experts have hated for years. I don’t know why.
There are better FF QBs for sure, but Goff is not a dud or anything.
…and if anyone has a question of the better QB/draft pick…Goff or Wentz (26-432 for 242 yards, 0 TD/2 INT) – then you’re a fool.
-- If/when I’m right about Jalen Hurts going to QB over Wentz, several things are going to change/happen that will shake some FF landscapes.
If the Eagles fall to (1-5) or possibly if they lose to Cincy this week, and Hurts takes over whenever, then…
1) Hurts becomes an interesting QB in 4pts per pass TD leagues…like a 200 +/- yards passing, a passing TD, 15 rushes for 50-80 yards and TDs a game type of QB for FF. A small-scale Lamar.
This change could happen just to save the O-Line issues…it’s not fair to Wentz to try and work behind it and their terrible WRs.
2) We don’t know what WRs, if any, would be viable with Hurts. Reagor would have made the most sense.
3) If Philly goes down, Zach Ertz could be traded…and his value then drops for FF.
Dallas Goedert would be a winner from Ertz gone, for sure, except Hurts is not going to be a high-volume passer. Goedert might be a junior Mark Andrews for junior-Lamar…but that’s better for non-PPR, shakier for PPR (at a high level).
If Philly loses to Cincy this week, buckle up for the fireworks and winds of change starting to blow.
4) It won’t help Miles Sanders reach new heights as Hurts takes ground game and short TDs away. Hurts is better built to be an NFL tail back than Sanders.
-- Micah Kizer (15 tackles, 1 PD, 1 FF) looks solid for LAR as their new ILB. He works fine. But for FF it was aces last week. He’s averaging 11.0 total tackles per game so far and is #4 in IDP PPG among LBs so far this season.
-- The Rams-DST has allowed 17 and 19 points to opponents so far – that’s good…3rd-best in the NFL. But for FF, they are #21 in sacks and are #18 in yards allowed. They are playing safe/sound football without a lot of FF scoring fireworks so far. The Philly matchup was supposed to be fireworks for sacks but they got none (and no TFLs)…and just 3 QB hits.
Snap Counts of Interest:
67 = Ertz
63 = Goedert
60 = Reagor
55 = DeSean
23 = JJAW
13 = Ward
03 = Jalen Hurts
55 = Sanders
13 = Scott
59 = Higbee
59 = Kupp
59 = Woods
42 = JReynolds
26 = Van Jefferson
37 = M Brown
29 = D Henderson
03 = Akers
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 2 Game Analysis: Cardinals 30, Washington 15
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
The Cardinals were toying with the Football Team all game…it was 27-3 early into the 4th-quarter with no threat of a Washington comeback. Washington added two late garbage TDs, because that’s the only time Haskins can complete passes to his own team (is when the defense is in prevent). It was 30-15 final, 15-point win that was more like a 25+ point gap between the teams.
Arizona did the same thing to Washington they did to San Fran Week 1…quick passes to neutralize the pass rush with Kyler running a lot to put them on their heels.
Washington couldn’t do what they did Week 1…against Philly they logged 28 combined QB Hits + TFLs in the game, amounts of 20+ I rarely ever see in games. In this game, just 6 combined QB Hits + TFLs. They only hit Kyler two times. When Kyler has time…it’s over. Kyler is manufacturing time with his feet and defenses are either dying via the quick pass and/or purposeful run when they try to rush, or when they sit back to worry about Kyler running then Murray just starts picking them apart through the air.
Kyler is playing MVP ball right now.
Arizona is very likely to be (5-0) ahead…DET, at CAR, at NYJ… three of the worst teams in the NFL. Then the schedule gets serious, but the way Arizona is playing they have a great shot at 10-6 or better, and an NFC West division title now that the 49ers are falling apart. Long way to go though.
Washington is going nowhere until they pull Dwayne Haskins, which is a shame they don’t know because they could contend for the NFC East title with Alex Smith.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Of course, we gotta talk Kyler (26-38 for 286 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 8-67-2)…
I already touched on what he’s doing this year to go to another level – purposefully running which is changing defensive pressure. If you come after him, he’s taking off or quick passing. If you lay back, he will eat you alive as a passer.
He could be the best dual threat QB of all-time at the rate he’s going. Michael Vick and Lamar Jackson are more lethal runners, but Kyler is an incredible passer from the pocket on a much higher level than Vick or Lamar…although Lamar can flick it like no one’s business. Lamar and Kyler are going to change football forever…or they’re the first of many to come like them.
Last year, Kyler didn’t run on purpose as much and didn’t have time to throw as needed…not this year. And if he can blow through SF and WAS high pressure fronts, he’s going to destroy DET-CAR-NYJ the next three weeks…if he wants to (please don’t just handoff and walk away with quiet wins…GO FOR THE FF JUGULAR!!).
Couple side notes on Kyler here…
*Just missed/left on the table another 30-70 yards passing. Some near miss bombs and an overthrow or two. Nothing egregious…just noting there was almost a crazy good day here.
*Also, Kyler ran for a TD first drive and it got called back for some BS penalty…so, he passed for the TD a few plays later. Could’ve been another small FF point boost in standard leagues.
-- Because Kyler is taking over the run game, it’s drying up things for Kenyan Drake (20-86-0, 2-9-0/2). Not as many TD runs available to Drake and Kyler isn’t much for a dump-off-to-RB passing game. Drake is going to be an RB2 through this season with more RB3 moments than RB1 ones, I’m afraid, for KD owners. But he’ll be stable.
-- Kyler either runs it or throws to DeAndre Hopkins (8-68-1/9)…I’m not sure there has been another play besides those for Arizona. On those rare other plays…
Christian Kirk (2-57-0/4) is relegated to deep ball shot guy. He’s not involved otherwise. There will be a game soon where Kirk goes 4-127-1 or something like it…where he makes some big catches/deep balls and makes hay out of it but over time he’ll just be 1-3 catches per game and hoping for a homerun ball to land his way. He might as well not even exist for FF right now. When he has his big game…you’ll have him on your bench.
Andy Isabella (2-67-0/2) is better than Kirk in that role, and he’s starting to see more time and looks. He looks fantastic. He could be a star WR – but not on this team. He’s just a role player.
I think Arizona will trade Kirk and could elevate Isabella to his role before the trade deadline. Where will Kirk go? Who knows? There could be so many injuries to deal with between now and then. Watch out for the Saints…but likely Arizona would want to trade him out of the NFC. Perhaps the Colts should take a look. Maybe the Browns will trade OBJ for Kirk…
Dan Arnold (2-26-0/4) was supposed to be so key in this offense. He’s playing a lot, but like anyone not named DeAndre Hopkins…there aren't many on-Hopkins touches to deal with regularly. He’s a TE2/bye week flyer.
-- Antonio Gibson (13-55-1, 1-0-0/2) still looks a bit sketchy as a lead RB. I mean, physically he looks great/dominant. When he has space he’s really working well. I see Gibson getting more comfortable two weeks in, but there’s still work to do.
The Washington RB that most impressed me here…J.D. McKissic (8-57-0). He got real running plays on purpose and looked like a Phillip Lindsay/Austin Ekeler type runner. He was gashing Arizona. Why they didn’t stick with him more is always ‘the NFL’…they’re allergic to successful things. Nothing gets in the way of their game plan, not even things working well.
Don’t lose sight of McKissic. He might rise up into a 6-10 carry, couple of targets a game guy after this showing. And if Alex Smith (or Kyle Allen) ever take over…his PPR effectiveness will jump dramatically.
-- Steven Sims (3-53-0/5) is so good…and he’s so going to waste with Dwayne Haskins. Again, nothing will get in the way of the NFL ‘plan’. Alex Smith or Kyle Allen (or Case Keenum) could really help manage this young team and possibly make a run at the NFC East title with their defensive pressure. But no chance of that with Haskins. Sims goes to waste as a WR3-4 until a change is made, a week-to-week flyer hoping he gets his big play. He almost got them here, but didn’t.
A QB change is likely in a few weeks, so if you can hold on until then (in deeper leagues)…
-- Haskins does throw to Logan Thomas (4-26-0/9) a lot, but don’t let the lofty targets fool you…I think Haskins is so awful at QB he feels better seeing the tallest guy on the field and throwing it to him because Haskins cannot read defenses or things under any pressure, he’s a ‘see quick and throw’, whether covered or not. Thomas stands out to Haskins’ eyes to throw to because he stands out height-wise.
Just a theory…
…that I’m right about. I’ve seen it many times before.
Thomas is very dicey for FF consistency.
-- How about that Arizona-DST? #10 DST in fantasy right now. They have Stafford-Teddy-Darnold ahead. Might be useable. I don’t love the Stafford or Teddy matchups a super amount, but plausible.
De’Vondre Campbell (10 tackles, 2 TFLs, 2 PDs) is the early Defensive Player of the Year in my book (not in anyone else’s). He’s changed the landscape of the linebackers and covering TEs…not Isaiah Simmons, who barely plays and was a wasted draft pick opportunity.
Campbell is averaging 8.5 total tackles, 1.0 TFLs, 1.0 PDs per game.
Chris Banjo (9 tackles) has been fantastic as well. He’s averaging 7.5 total tackles per game as the starting safety now.
-- What about the vaunted Washington-DST? So good Week 1…so rough here. That’s why I wasn’t gung ho going into last week’s games with WASH.
Like I said in the intro…Kyler neutralized the pass rushers like a snake charmer. It’s a better matchup for the FC in Week 3 at CLE. Then Week 4 vs. BAL is a potential nightmare.
They are going to be an up and down streamer all year. We still don’t know how good they are because it’s an epic D-Line and a disaster linebacker group. They almost cancel each other out like when I eat a giant piece of my wife’s famous cheesecake and drink a Diet Dr. Pepper with it…the diet soda cancels out the calories from the cake, right?
Snap Counts of Interest:
75 = Hopkins
61 = Fitz
47 = Kirk
14 = Isabella
50 = Drake
27 = Edmonds
42 = Gibson
29 = McKissic
01 = Barber
07 = Isaiah Simmons
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 2 Game Analysis: 49ers 31, Jets 13
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
I thought the Jets could make a ‘last stand’ here and put up a good showing, in order to fight back at all the mass negativity from this whole organization/franchise/fan base – the Jets play hard on defense and I thought against a wounded 49ers team (who would get more wounded in game) they could put up a fight and try to cover the spread.
The first play of the game was a simple sweep to the right and Raheem Mostert went untouched right through blocking and was off to the races. The game was over right then and there. The Jets scuffled a bit to cut it to 7-3, and it hung there for a little bit, but then the floodgates opened and it was 21-3 SF at the half and eventually 31-6 before a late garbage TD made it 31-13. The score didn’t indicate how bad a beating this was.
The 49ers took care of business, but also lost Nick Bosa, two starting RBs, another D-Lineman, and their QB in the game – and they still cruised to victory with ease. Hard to know how good or in peril the 49ers are because the Jets are not much of a litmus test. Fortunately, the 49ers have a favorable schedule the next few weeks before it turns brutal. The 49ers could be 3-2/4-1 before the schedule turns dark and then they may lose five in-a-row Weeks 6-10 if they are getting more and more banged up, and thus plummet to the bottom of the NFC West. They’ll be lucky to be (5-5) by their Week 11 BYE at this injury rate, more likely they are (4-6). Kyle Shanahan deserves a medal if they get to (6-4+)
The Jets are done. They’ve lost the one thing they had going for them – a salty run defense. They decided to elevate old Alec Ogletree from the practice squad and start him at ILB…and he was the reason for the 80-yard opening TD run, and most every big run/play you could find #52 lollygagging or out of position. I think he was doing what Mark Barron did with the Steelers last year…trying to stay out of plays/contact but make it look like he was trying…and collect some paychecks. He was always late to plays or found a blocker to tie up with. He single handedly killed them. If they don’t cut him by Week 3 gameday, bet against the Jets this week because they are playing 11-on-10 football – and they aren’t good enough to cover that up.
The Jets have a chance to go winless this year, it’s that bad. If they don’t win Week 4 TNF hosting Denver, they will likely start the season (0-9). They can’t win but 2-3 games tops this year. The GM is in the head coach’s pocket, so neither are going anywhere for at least another year.
May I remind the class – this is the Manning’s (Peyton mostly and Eli) fault. Stick to commercials boys, because you know nothing about QBs or head coaches. The Manning’s talked NYG into Daniel Jones…they also talked NYJ into Adam Gase…and Gase hiring is a nuclear bomb to any hope at success. The Manning-based decisions have helped wreck the two NY franchises. Is it a diabolical plot by the Manning’s to destroy NY football? It’s working!!
Enjoy the upcoming years when Peyton Manning is a highly paid TV analyst and then GM for a team.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Jerick McKinnon (3-77-1, 0-0-0/1) had a day, but on just three carries and no catches. He looked cool, but again…Jets #52 Alec Ogletree was there to help on his biggest play – that ridiculous 3rd & 30+ run of 55-yards (untouched ‘til the end).
With Mostert-Coleman down, McKinnon is set to be the lead back Week 3…and possibly Weeks 4-5 as well.
McKinnon looks fine. Not necessarily like his old, amazing self…but still very good/reasonable. I don’t know if the 49ers want to push him too hard if they don’t have to (coming off two years out of football and multiple injuries). Considering they have some winnable games ahead, there will probably be a Jeff Wilson (2-3-0)/McKinnon split coming. The 49ers are comfortable with Wilson. He’s not that great and he’ll be like a 10 +/- carries and 1-4 targets a game projection…and if the game gets out of hand you’ll see some Wilson more than McKinnon – and you’ll see JaMycal Hasty (DNP) getting extended practice time in garbage time.
Raheem Mostert has a MCL sprain and that tends to be a multi-week issue, that he may try to come back to early from and risk being ineffective with. Mostert didn’t get the contract he was looking for from SF, so I suspect he will take as long as he needs until he is 100%. No need for him to rush back…he’s in a kinda contract year. Bad performance on tape won’t help him in a few months.
It will likely be McKinnon/Wilson for two weeks minimum and up to 3-4 weeks max.
If you got McKinnon, it’s not crazy for you to go explore a ‘sell high’. Like higher than you think because people are desperate.
-- Or you could try to FF-invest in the lovely disaster that is the Jets backfield. I thought Miami was messed up in the backfield…at least they have some talent, even if they don’t use it. The Jets have no talent at all.
Frank Gore (21-63-0, 0-0-0/2) is a useless lead back who will be the lead for two more weeks until Le’Veon returns…or longer if Le’Veon is traded.
LaMical Perine (3-17-0) will likely start working a 70/30 split here with Gore and see some PPR work. He might have a minor spike PPR game ahead.
Kalen Ballage (1-5-0, 2-12-0) inexplicably is here, and he might see some extra work in blowouts.
I could see a Le’Veon trade by Week 5 and a three-headed nightmare backfield of Gore-Ballage-Perine the rest of the season.
-- Nick Mullens (8-11 for 71 yards, 0 TD/1 INT) is a capable backup QB. He won’t hurt this offense too badly. He has starter experience. Jimmy G. will probably miss a week and then be back. The 49ers can get by for a week against NYG, you’d think.
-- Six players/receivers to quick comment on from this game (in no particular order)…
1) Brandon Aiyuk (2-21-0/3) made his debut. He didn’t look totally comfortable, a bit nervous, but he looked very fast/quick. In another week or two the 49ers might have Jimmy G. + Aiyuk + Deebo + Kittle all back healthy, and then really have something solid on offense again.
Aiyuk will probably start slowly for FF and continue to rise – but given no Deebo or Kittle, there is room for him to get extra work and make some noise as early as this week.
Aiyuk looks lightning fast and looks like he has added muscle. The 49ers don’t have a high-volume passing game and Aiyuk and Jimmy G. have limited time with each other…could be a choppy 2020 for Aiyuk, but there’s some hope on the talent.
2) Jordan Reed (7-50-2/8) looks like the old Jordan Reed, as I said last week. He took advantage of these terrible Jets linebackers. When George Kittle returns, Reed goes back to a random TE2.
3) Braxton Berrios (6-59-1/8) should already be starting for this team, or some team. He’s the perfect Cole Beasley-type WR…and he was clearly the Jets’ best WR in this game. He could have another nice game Week 3 if Jamison Crowder is out. Like an FF-startable in PPR type of game out of nowhere.
Everything you like about Crowder gets put into Berrios with Crowder gone, and everyone gone.
4) Breshad Perriman (2-12-0/2) is one of the ‘gone’. Likely out for a week or more. I thought he just had a weak game here, but he got hurt and had to leave early.
The note here is – Perriman looked DAMN good in the time he was in. There’s something there when he returns. It’s limited some because of Sam Darnold sucking, but it’s not nothing. Sadly, he has to deal with Darnold…so, his FF-upside is limited.
5) Josh Malone (4-16-0/6, 1-12-0) got extra work when Perriman went down. He’s a decent warm body to fill-in. Not worth a fantasy look.
6) Chris Hogan (6-75-0/8) played capable football, as he does. If the Jets are still down Crowder + Perriman, I’d rather have Berrios than Hogan for a quick start for the week.
-- A quick IDP note… With all the D-Line injuries, Kerry Hyder (8 tackles, 2 solo/6 assist, 1.0 sack, 2 QB hits) played 80% of the snaps and was pretty active. Hyder puts up numbers when he gets a chance. He had 3 tackles and a sack in 40% of the snaps Week 1. He has 3 QB hits already this season…3x the amount Carolina has as a team this season.
A deep one to take note of.
Snap Counts of Interest:
59 = Hogan
46 = Berrios
42 = J Malone
20 = Perriman
37 = Gore
09 = Perine
08 = Ballage
05 = Adams
45 = Bourne
44 = Aiyuk
28 = T Taylor
13 = Sanu
10 = Pettis
52 = Hyder
43 = Kinlaw
34 = Alec Ogletree
17 = Avery Williamson
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 2 Game Analysis: Bills 31, Dolphins 28
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
I’m not sure why this game went like it did…totally unlike you would expect…
Sure, the Bills won…by not as much as you’d think.
The Bills are supposed to have this killer pass defense, and Ryan Fitzpatrick had no issues with them (and he’s been a Bills killer in Miami).
Josh Allen isn’t supposed to throw for 400+ yards and 4 TDs in a game…ever.
What happened?
No clue.
It was very hot and humid. It rained for a moment. The game got delayed for lightning. The whole game felt disjointed.
The core fundamentals remain true: Buffalo is very sound..and won. Miami is still a scattered, rag tag mess…and lost. Miami was chasing Buffalo the entire time. The Bills are just better coached and more disciplined and more talented…and won in a hard place to go on the road and win.
The Bills face some challenges the next few weeks – LAR, at LV, at TEN, KC. This could be a scuffling (3-3) team in a hurry.
Miami’s season may get sent swirling down the drain Thursday Night at Jacksonville. We might see Tua Week 4.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The main thing I did in this game study was watch every pass play from Preston Williams’s (1-26-0/5) point of view. Williams’s has had a beyond slow start and I’m seeing him being dropped/cut/traded away, etc. Certainly, no one wants to start him. I thought he could put up numbers right away.
Is it his ACL recovery?
Is it Fitzpatrick?
Is it Brian Flores?
Is it bad luck?
Three things to share, and do with it what you wish…
1) Williams is getting covered by the best corners in the game Weeks 1-2. Gillmore then Tre’Davious Weeks 1-2.
The Texans have faced KC-BAL out of the gates, but the Bears have faced DET-NYG…sometimes the schedule goes against you.
I had hoped/planned the NFL would cover DeVante Parker with their #1 corners, but even THEY know Preston is the best WR on this team…coming off an ACL.
2) Williams, for what it is worth, nearly had two TDs in this game.
His lone catch for 26 yards was a beauty falling at the pylon…just out of bounds before hitting the TD.
He later had a game-winner (potentially) thrown to him on 4th & 1 late at the goal line…he leapt up and botched the quick pass grab TD that literally hit him in the numbers. Cost them the game. The good news – when the money was on the line they went to Preston.
3) I watched all his pass routes/snaps…I’m here to say he is back to 100%. He looks smooth. He looks like 2019 Preston. He’s getting open, but Fitz isn’t looking a lot because it’s not a good idea to attack those corners.
Preston Williams is going to be a star. The potential is there. But he’s getting #1 corners thrown at him constantly off the bat in 2020 and he’s going to get top rookie CB C.J. Henderson this week…hard to trust Williams again. Preston might get over OK on the rookie, but CJH has been really good out of the gates.
Week 4, PW might catch a break with Seattle.
Week 5, wheel’s up against SF.
Week 6, back to some problems with DEN if Bouye is back/fine.
Week 7, versus LAC he might get shut down again.
Week 8, versus Ramsey…toast.
Week 9, Patrick Peterson may be an issue, but probably not.
Through Week 9, PW has two nice matchups…maybe two other OK ones. He has too many top corners to contend with to get excited though to Week 6, and then he might be working with a QB (Tua) who might be overwhelmed and can’t get him the ball in such circumstances either…or could be a boom? I think more shaky than boom.
Williams is a future star stuck in a weird passing game getting ready to transition and a schedule where he keeps getting #1 corners thrown at him From Week 10 on it looks much better, but that’s a long way away.
Point is, bottom line – I see a star still with Preston, but I don’t know when it will happen in 2020…it could be another season. It could be that he breaks out Week 3 for a mini-spurt Weeks 3-4-5. I just know what I know – he’s really promising/talented/loaded with star qualities.
-- Isaiah Ford (7-76-0/9) is not loaded with star qualities but if Miami can’t run the ball and is in constant deficit – Ford can have games like these and be a new Gage-Cole WR3/flex hopeful kinda WR.
With Williams getting shutdown so much…the ball has to go somewhere.
-- The ball went to Mike Gesicki (8-130-1/11) a lot in this game. You have to FF-respect the fact that NFL defenses don’t tend to take him seriously. In this game, Buffalo was missing their two starting ILBs and Miami took advantage.
If Tremaine Edmunds played, like normal, he probably would have shut down Gesicki. Instead, Gesicki had a star moment. Gesicki can be a TE1 on decent volume and decent TDs…I just don’t see a star here, just useful erratically.
But like with T.J. Hockenson…if the team is always down and chasing and can’t run the ball…lots of passes to go around.
-- What Miami is doing with their run game is beyond me. Myles Gaskin (7-46-0, 6-36-0/7) is the lead RB while Jordan Howard (5-4-1) starts snap one and then is gone until he gets called to the goal line. Matt Breida (7-37-0, 1-2-0/2) has more juice overall…and yet he defers to Gaskin as well.
I gotta believe Breida is going to emerge from this as viable soon, for FF. Miami has to be getting desperate to win. Brian Flores has butchered this whole thing. In desperation, he might make a change of course.
-- What Buffalo is doing with their backfield is a 60/40 split…near 50/50.
Devin Singletary (10-56-0, 2-20-0/3) looks like the clear better back. Visually, it’s not right…DS should get more touches. He made a number of savvy runs/plays in this game.
Zack Moss (8-37-0) looks OK, but he’s not near the gamebreaker or pass catcher (no targets for Moss here).
Singletary is in a split with the TDs going everywhere else…but he might start to pull away a little bit more from Moss when they hit this rough patch of schedule coming.
-- Miami lost Byron Jones a few plays into this game, and Josh Allen then threw for 417 yards and 4 TDs. With no Jones Week 3 TNF…imagine what Minshew Mania will do.
-- The 2020 Buffalo Bills defense has lost something from last year’s unit (s far). They are #3 against the run, which is good…but they used to be a shutdown pass defense, like best in the league, but they are sitting #20 in the league against the pass right now…and that’s after facing Darnold and Fitzpatrick.
I think it’s more ILB injury/TE based getting worked in the passing game. They are still stifling WRs pretty well, but not as good as 2019…and TEs are roaring against them and RBs are doing OK in the pass game too. We’ll see how they do against Goff-Carr-Tannehill-Mahomes upcoming…all quality QBs/low turnover guys.
The opportunities for DST scoring for the Bills-DST ahead is not good through Week 6.
Snap Counts of Interest:
66 = Parker
61 = Pr Williams
48 = Ford
45 = Gesicki
35 = Smythe
49 = Gaskin
16 = Breida
08 = Howard
34 = Singletary
28 = Moss
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 2 Game Analysis: Titans 33, Jaguars 30
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
This game was 14-0 Titans 10 minutes into the 1st-quarter -- and I thought this was the Jags collapse after a lucky Week 1.
For the next 50 minutes the Jags outscored the Titans 30-19, but on a final drive to get in field goal range, which they were likely to be and possibly get a TD to win it, a Minshew pass was batted down and into a D-Lineman’s hands for a game-ending INT. The Jaguars should be (1-1)…winning this game, and losing last week to the Colts (the reverse of that happened). They had a real chance to be (2-0) to start the season.
The Jaguars represent a football theory you can run with in this particular era – gut all the bloated payroll guys and just run with a bunch of ‘poor’ (no 1st-round picks at QB-RB-WR), hungry, high character guys and let them try and outplay the bloated millionaires. It’s an odd class warfare version of football. It’s also a very coachable group who ‘yes, sir…no, sir’ the head coach…until it’s their time to be paid. It works right now for the Jags (see to: the 2nd-half of 2019 season Miami Dolphins). The Jags aren’t winning the Super Bowl, but they are not to be trifled with.
The Jaguars lead the NFL in 3rd-down conversion percentage…after facing two pretty good defenses (IND and TEN) so far this year. You don’t do that if you’re ‘bad at football’ or ‘tanking’. They are the furthest from tanking. Keelan Cole is playing every snap for his life/livelihood. Odell Beckham can’t wait for the season to be over so he can go buy more cars, houses, and yachts and take more vacations.
I swear, I’m not a Bernie Sanders’ supporter!
I will take the Jaguars and lay the -3.0 to throttle the Dolphins this week on TNF. Miami…a Dolphins team that gutted its bloated roster last year, became a winning team with it 2nd-half of the season…and then went out and spent a ton of money in the offseason to bring in new bloated payroll guys. Looks like that is working out well…
I would not be surprised if Jacksonville is not (4-2) heading into their Week 7 BYE.
The Titans are (2-0) and could very well be (0-2). The Titans are getting out to fast leads and then stalling and hanging on for wins against teams they are supposed to be better than. Another (9-7) season is coming…I can feel it. But they just keep winning, so…
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Let’s talk about the two QBs here…both are legit fantasy QB1s now.
Gardner Minshew (30-45 for 339 yards, 3 TDs/2 INTs) was one of my late redraft 2nd QBs on the roster guys (along with Burrow and Stafford)…and that’s already paid off. FFM Dynasty leagues are littered with Minshew investments as a cheap 2nd or 3rd QB when everyone else thought that was dumb back to last year. If you didn’t land Minshew this offseason in Dynasty, you were either loaded at QB already or you wouldn’t believe me. Too late now…now everyone is onto him as legit…for the NFL and FF.
He’s talented + this team will have to throw a bunch + he has really good WRs. He’s a QB1 this year, period.
-- Who I did not see coming…and who I did not believe in…was Ryan Tannehill (18-24 for 239 yards, 4 TDs/0 INT). He keeps playing great and I keep fighting it waiting for ‘you know Tannehill won’t keep this up’ to happen…but I’ve been saying that for 15 starts/games of his now. At what point will I realize I’m stupid?
This week, I might have realized it.
I mean, I used him late last year to get over in places…but I kept waiting for the rug to get pulled out every time. I didn’t believe it the whole time it was happening last year, as I was prospering from it. Now, here I am again looking past it. I’m not alone.
You wanna know how good Tannehill has been?
He took over as full starter Week 7 of last year, and logged 10 regular season game starts, three playoff games, and two games so far in 2020…15 games as a starter for TEN. His record in that time: (11-4).
His numbers in those 15 games…
271 comp./397 att. = 69.3% Comp Pct.
3,455 yards passing (230.3 per game)
33 TDs/6 INTs (2.2 passing TDs per game)
245 rushing yards (16.3 per game)
5 rushing TDs
Where does all this rank in the QB universe?
22.4 FF PPG (4pts per pass TD)…that pace would have made him the #2 QB in all FF PPG in 2019.
26.4 FF PPG (6pts per pass TD)…right with Mahomes fighting for #2 in 2019.
33 passing TDs in a season would have been tied for 2nd-most in the NFL last year.
Guess where he’s ranked for passing TDs so far in 2020? 2nd-most with Ryan-Allen-Rodgers-Minshew.
You’re not getting wild 300+ yard passing games from Tannehill, but you’re getting 2 TD passes almost every week. In his 15 Tennessee starts, he has thrown for 2 or more TD passes 13 times.
Defenses so overplay Derrick Henry to run, as they should…it gives Tannehill the clearance to throw efficiently, against limited coverage and allows him to pick defenses apart as needed.
Ryan Tannehill is a QB1 for 2020…sitting on waivers a lot this week. Available in trade for almost nothing. Why do we not care? Because the NFL is doing big stories or commercials with him. He doesn’t have a funny beard or mustache that NFL analysts judge QB talent on. He’s not a magical rookie. He’s not a runner, per se (but better than people realize) – he’s just really, really good and has been good for 15 games and we don’t care.
I’m usually not in great need of a QB. I already got an ace at the top and Minshew/Burrow/Stafford in the hole…but is Tannehill better than Stafford right now? Or better than Minshew or Burrow? It’s not as crazy a question as you might think.
At Minnesota this week…that should be sweet/solid too.
Versus PIT-BUF Weeks 4-5 is no good, in theory, but he seems to always do fine…but then Week 6 HOU, Week 7 bye, Week 8 CIN is back to good opportunities v. HOU and CIN.
-- When Tannehill is working, he doesn’t tend to lean on one receiver. He spreads it around. He’s hard to figure out for FF…what receivers to chase with him.
A.J. Brown is his guy, but with AJB out…Jonnu Smith (4-84-2/5) is more his guy. But remember, Tannehill is just efficient and tossing TDs…not a ton of yards/completions. Thus, Jonnu is now deemed a star because of his 2 TD game, but outside of that: 4.0 rec., 60.0 yards, 6.0 targets per game YTD…that’s not high-end TE1 activity. Not enough targets/action on a regular basis, but definitely TE1 material.
If you think Corey Davis (3-36-1/5) is rising up without AJB…it’s not really happening. Davis is likely to score a TD with AJB out, but still lowly targeted (for a de facto #1 WR with AJB out). Davis is a random option in a low volume/high TD passing game. Better for non-PPR as a flex/flyer.
When Davis has to be a #1, like this game – high-end rookie CB C.J. Henderson easily shut him off most of the game. Davis operates better in the shadows but is not Tannehill’s #1 or #2 or even #3 look most drop backs.
-- What’s wrong with Derrick Henry (25-84-0, 0-0-0/2)? Nothing. Teams are stacking him (as they do), and he hasn’t had his moment yet. He will. He’ll be fine. He’ll be an RB1 ranked PPG producer soon despite the slow start.
-- James Robinson (16-102-1, 3-18-0/4) still looks very pedestrian on tape to me. But he’s fine. He’s not terrible…but the beauty is – when you get all the touches, good FF things tend to happen.
I don’t know if Ryquell Armstead makes any dent in touches upon a return or not. But it looks like James Robinson all the way for the near future. We’re all excited about him, but the moment he has like two 15-55-0 games in a row, people will turn on him/treat him like an RB3.
I like to dangle JRob out in deals now with a so-so WR to land a Joe Mixon, etc., in a deal,
-- This Jaguars WR group is really humming…
D.J. Chark (4-84-0/4) looks totally fine. I don’t know why the targets are so down (just 3.5 targets per game so far), but he looks fine/open/is making plays.
Minshew doesn’t have to lean on him for everything, so we’re getting low targets…at the same time DJC gets the best coverage. If he has a big Week 3…all will be deemed fine. I am concerned that it’s two games with low targets. One low game can be a blip. Two makes me pause. I’m not buying or selling Chark right now…I’m holding and seeing where this goes. I’d be a buyer more than seller. Chark is too good to be 4 targets a game guy.
He’s going to have a 7-150-2 game soon, and everyone will be back on board again. Thursday night vs. MIA might be the spot for reemergence if Byron Jones is out.
Also, consider… Minshew is so efficient, he’s not going to have a ton of targets because he has a ton of completions. Chark (or others) might get only 5-6-7 targets in a game but catch 5-6-7 passes, and that’s what you want…catches not targets. Unconnected targets/lofty target levels can be misleading. You want connections/completions.
Keelan Cole (6-58-1/7) is playing beautiful football, but he’s risen to FF-power on a TD in each of his first two games…the moment he has a 4-47-0/6 game, he’ll be less than Cole Beasley for people. No one really believes in him, so I’m happy to have him now…or wait for him to be on waivers again if taken this week.
I was really impressed with Laviska Shenault (3-35-0/4, 5-37-0) this game. I’ve been on the sidelines on Shenault this whole time because I didn’t see him being athletic enough to really pop with these ‘unique’ touches he’s getting. That he would be fine, but Curtis Samuel is getting in the same range of touches but he isn’t deemed as exciting because he’s not a magical unicorn rookie.
7 carries, 47 yards rushing, 6 rec. (8 targets), 72 yards receiving, 61% of snaps played = Shenault YTD
5 carries, 31 yards rushing, 7 rec. (10 targets), 51 yards receiving, 72% of snaps played = Samuel YTD
I was impressed with Shenault’s catching ability in this game. He’s really made hay on some errant/off-target/only-where-the-WR-can-get-them throws. He’s a legit WR3/flex kinda option. I don’t know that he can consistently go much higher than that.
-- Some Jags IDPs of note…
C.J. Henderson (6 tackles, 1 PD) gives this Jags defense a shutdown corner immediately…so, beware on Preston Williams AGAIN this week drawing top cover corner #3 in-a-row.
Andrew Wingard (9 tackles) is the new safety and he is a tackle machine…a linebacker mind playing safety. He’ll do well for IDP as a Jags’ starter.
Snap Counts of Interest:
54 = Jonnu
50 = Corey Davis
34 = Batson (wow)
34 = Humphries
28 = Raymond
59 = Chark
51 = Cole
43 = Shenault
34 = Conley
08 = Collin Johnson
38 = James Robinson
31 = Chris Thompson
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 2 Game Analysis: Colts 28, Vikings 11
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
The Computer felt great about MIN in this game for some reason, so I joined in against my better judgment…and not good…not good at all.
The Vikings drove right down the field opening drive and settled for a field goal. The 1st-quarter ended 3-0 MIN. Looked like a slog was in store…neither team looking particularly sharp. Then the Colts decided to run every play and jam it down the Vikings’ throats with Jonathan Taylor, and they did. Minnesota slept the rest of the game and got smacked around for the second game in a row this year.
The Vikings are better than this, but time is running out fast – they play three playoff teams in a row (TEN, at HOU, at SEA) and their season may be over by Week 5.
The Colts are the #1 pass defense in yards allowed, #4 best in QB rating allowed, #3 best in yards per completion allowed. They are #5 best in rushing yards per game allowed. The Colts are suddenly a sneaky power run game and higher-end defensive unit. They should be the favorites to win the AFC South for sure…unless Philip Rivers breaks down too much before the finish line…he does not look great…
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- T.Y. Hilton (3-28-0/5) is not ‘shot’…he’s lost a step, but not shot/done yet. Good news is he’s still viable, bad news is he’s not the same ‘stud’ he used to be. I was hoping he’d be a sneaky WR1 candidate from the middle redraft rounds…he’s probably not.
He is working the slot and still ‘T.Y.’, so he gets respect. But superstar weeks look fewer and further apart now. Rivers is not selling his soul to throw it to him. He did/forced it a few times this game, but T.Y. is not really open as much as he used to be. Hilton did spring open for a 40+ yard TD, 2+ yards ahead of coverage, and Rivers floated right to him in stride and Hilton dropped it.
Could’ve been circumstantial on the dropped TD: https://www.indystar.com/story/sports/nfl/colts/colts-insider/2020/09/21/colts-coach-frank-reich-t-y-hilton-lost-deep-ball-sun/5858385002/
I can look past a dropped TD in the sun…but not seeing Rivers ache to get T.Y. the ball is worrying me.
-- Michael Pittman (4-37-0/6) looked like an old pro in his first real work of 2020…he looked fine. But also, Rivers was not killing to get the ball to him either. But Rivers looked more comfortable with Pittman than Hilton, honestly.
The receivers might be fine here…but Rivers may be the bigger issue…that he can’t get them to the FF-promised land in 2020. Did you see Mike Williams’ stats last year? Not having Parris Campbell to take heat/coverage/focus away is not going to help anybody either.
When we lost Parris Campbell, we lost a junior Diontae Johnson pop that was in progress. It’s a crying shame.
-- Mo Alie-Cox (5-111-0/6) got the special treatment from Rivers but it was open/available/working and MAC bobbled the incoming treats but gathered them in for a big day.
Alie-Cox is fine, but when Jack Doyle comes back Mo is no mo, for FF. Then Trey Burton comes back soon too.
-- The Colts offense IS Jonathan Taylor (26-101-1, 2-9-0/2). As Josh Jacobs is to Jon Gruden, as Derrick Henry is to Mike Vrabel…so goes Taylor to Frank Reich now. Taylor is an undisputed RB1 for the ROS.
If he goes down it will be a Wilkins/Hines split they’re stuck with.
-- Where was Nyheim Hines (1-4-0/1)…top FF star of Week 1? He played 9 snaps…no clue why he was so limited. He wasn’t hurt.
I think they just power run gamed it and then when under control got Jordan Wilkins (9-40-0) extended training camp work to get him up to speed.
Hines will have better, more useful days ahead…you’d think.
-- Not much to say for the Vikings here for FF or otherwise. Same old same old Vikings. Kirk Cousins (11-26 for 113 yards, 0 TD/3 INTs) looks uninspired to say the least.
It was about this time last year, Cousins started so poorly and everyone tried to replace him with Sean Mannion. How’d that turn out for Cousins/Minnesota in the end?
-- Justin Jefferson (3-44-0/3) played a few more snaps, saw a few more targets this week…still don’t see a big star happening anytime soon. He may end up with BYE week value ahead just because the Vikings have nothing else to turn to, as Adam Thielen (3-31-0/8) was doubled all game it seemed.
-- Alexander Mattison (3-13—0, 1-3-0/2) seems like nothing, but you’ve seen all the ACLs…right? If Dalvin Cook gets one, Mattison an RB1 candidate in his place.
Keelan Cole and Russell Gage and such are cute, but none of them are going to be future WR1s. If you’re holding a WR like that as last roster spot guys for a gamble/depth…you might rather try to guess the next ACL-birthed superstar waiver RB of the week…for next week.
-- I mentioned some of the numbers on the Colts-DST earlier…they have strong defensive metrics and are the current #3 DST in fantasy with the Jets to face this week…and then the Bears…and then Cleveland…and then Cincy. A great four-week run with Indy-DST head. Might be a keep through their Week 8 BYE.
Snap Counts of Interest:
67 = Pittman
59 = Pascal
42 = Hilton
49 = J Taylor
17 = Wilkins
09 = Hines
48 = Thielen
42 = Bisi Johnson
29 = J Jefferson
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 2 Game Analysis: Bears 17, Giants 13
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
This game was 17-0 Bears at the half. It looked like what many expected…the Bears are OK, and the Giants are terrible…no big deal. In the second half, the Giants shut out the Bears and came back to within 4 points with chances at the end…but they couldn’t pull through.
This is a story of two bad teams playing a game, and one of them mercifully won. Not much more to say about it top side. The Bears are highly overrated and are going to crash to earth soon and should be 0-2 right now. The Giants are properly rated. But they are trying hard.
A lesson to 2-0/0-2 FF teams out there…Houston is 0-2, Chicago is 2-0. Do their records really represent how good/bad their teams are? Do you think the Bears will have more wins than they Texans in the end? It’s early. Some teams played DET and NYG and others played KC and BAL…the records are not indicative of reality. We need more weeks to play out to find reality.
Oh, and I’m going to reveal a gem at the end (saving it to the end) that you’re not going to want to miss…and be careful how excited you get. Keep it in context.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- What about the Giants backfield now?
First…will Saquon Barkley (4-28-0) get the ‘always injured’ label for 2021 redraft…like David Johnson or Leonard Fournette have had to deal with for years, even if not really true? Nope. Have you seen his quads? The media loves Saquon, so his value will barely change. He might plummet from the #1-2 overall player to the #4-5…oh, the horror.
With him gone, the Giants are set to roll with Dion Lewis (10-20-1, 4-36-0/5). And that makes Lewis an RB2 in PPR, and probably for non-PPR as well. The Giants have a lot of pressure to ‘win now’. Joe Judge wants to book his first win…and Dave Gettleman is on a serious hot seat. The schedule ahead is terrible for NYG/Lewis…SF-LAR-DAL-WAS-PHI-TB-WAS-PHI, some of the top run defenses in the league except for WAS 2x. However, that’s where Lewis has to play a lot…to block and be the rock for the team in a very tough situation.
If NYG was signing Devonta Freeman, they would have done so already…I suspect. Still possible he signs today, but NYG has to see that they have no chance this year and Freeman isn’t changing the game upon arrival either.
The sleeper play in this, but not a radical one, is Wayne Gallman (DNP)…the problem is, Saquon went down and Gallman registered no snaps that I see. It was all Dion Lewis. Gallman had a great camp, was drawing buzz I was keeping tabs on him to be the #2 back…but he was named #3 back and didn’t see any touches in the Saquon-crisis here.
Dion Lewis is ‘the man’ for the foreseeable future – a solid enough RB, getting heavy touches, junk-time PPR work, but against a very tough schedule behind a weak O-Line. Better for PPR than not, but his volume might make up for schedule/O-Line some on rushing. Lewis might get some crazy catch counts in this offense. I’d chase him pretty hard in PPR for those in need, because I don’t know if everyone is that excited about him – but they know he’s in a good spot at the moment, but Devonta visiting is scaring them some.
The Giants may add a back, just not Devonta. Lewis is an ex-Patriot on a team coached by an ex-Patriot…so, Lewis gets special treatment/status. I’d roll with it if I have to. Lewis is in a similar spot as James Robinson, for example – ‘the guy’ behind a weak O-Line. Only Lewis has no challenger for the PPR work like Robinson.
-- I love a buy low on Evan Engram (6-65-0/8) now. The Giants will be throwing a lot and Engram is the security blanket and mismatch opportunity. He’s going to pop and then you’ll be mad you didn’t try to get…if you need help at TE.
-- I’d like to think Darius Slayton (3-33-0/6) is in line for more work/better FF days, but watching him in this game – too much going deep for Slayton while Daniel Jones throws underneath. Slayton is their best WR, and Jones’s fave WR now…but that’s probably WR2 cap at best.
I like Slayton as a buy low off this down week…but buy LOW. Not fair value. Those having WR issues…it’s guys like Slayton (not the biggest names, but in offenses with a lot of passing on game flows, and are talented, AND coming off a down week) that are the cheaper targets to help re-make your WR group if needed. If his owner wants to profess love and treat Slayton like gold, then move on. There’s other/better WRs to pursue for the price.
*Sterling Shepard (2-29-0/4) is already hurt again, so now the shift to Engram-Slayton should be coming on stronger.
-- Allen Robinson (3-33-0/9) is not necessarily on my ‘buy low’ list. This passing game is awful, and people want to dump ARob, but still think he’s a strong WR1…he’s more of a weak WR1.
If I can get ARob as a WR2 valuation, then I’m interested…I still see his owners holding tight. I think he’s a smart get-cheap, but I’m not paying fair value. There’s better WRs to chase than fair value ARob.
…but, if the Nick Foles takeover comes into view, I’m a bit more interested in ARob. The (2-0) start means Foles is still a few weeks away but mark my words…it’s coming.
-- Ryan Nall (1-2-0/1) was sighted!! I just wanted to type that while I could. This is still Montgomery as RB2 backed up by WR Patterson and then Tarik Cohen (5-12-0, 1-15-0/1), who has totally disappeared, after that. Nall is a million light years away from any chance…but he at least got in the game here.
-- I thought Mitch Trubisky (18-28 for 190 yards, 2 TDs/2 INTs, 4-16-0) played another shaky/borderline terrible game. You know I have liked Mitch, but I see no development in 2020 and he works in this terrible offense. He’s lucky he’s faced DET-NYG back-to-back is all I can say.
Another gift this week…Atlanta. The clock strikes midnight on Trubisky starting Week 4.
I’d rather have Daniel Jones (25-40 for 241 yards, 0 TD/1 INT, 3-21-0) for FF…that’s how down I am on Trubisky. Trubisky is not getting any better, he’s getting worse – he’s a totally scared, over-managed QB. The end is nigh. A wasted opportunity of a career by Matt Nagy.
-- Two IDP notes…
DB Logan Ryan (7 tackles) was a late signee of the Giants and in Week 1 he played 59% of the snaps but played 85% here and had a nice IDP effort. Remember, he was a top IDP DB last year. He’s now on a team that will be on defense a lot…and he’s an ex-Patriot on a team coached by an ex-Patriot. He’s going to be useful for IDP again.
DL Kyler Fackrell (4 tackles, 1 sack, 2 TFLs) had 10.5 sacks for Green Bay in the 2018 season, but just 1.0 in 2019 and was quietly signed by NYG in the offseason. He is not a nobody. He might be NYG’s best pass rusher.
-- OK, the special note…
I was asked by someone last night…”Is there a next Diontae Johnson?” The question stopped me in my tracks for a moment. Great question. I’ve been so focused on celebrating Diontae and trying to make sure everyone was valuing him properly, I hadn’t really thought…OK, great you hit Diontae…whaddya got for me now? Pull another rabbit out of your arse dancing fantasy boy!
‘Diontae’ means a certain type of WR. Slender. Good hands+. But mostly so fast-of-foot off the snap they can get open on anyone…BUT that has to be combined with the intestinal fortitude to work all parts of the field. Jerry Jeudy can get open on anyone off the snap, but then is a piece of garbage over the middle or near any traffic. Diontae is a chip-on-his-shoulder, overlooked grinder…Jeudy is an entitled diva.
Who fits the bill for next Diontae?
One contender I have in mind – Chicago Bears 5th-round 2020 rookie Darnell Mooney.
Let’s look at the quick overview/timeline…
A very good college WR, hidden away at Tulane…somewhat because of a bad passing game/QB situation. Mostly because he didn’t play in the SEC.
Ran a 4.38 40-time at the Combine, as everyone collectively yawned.
Drafted 5th-round and wasn’t fully assumed to make the team.
Impressed in camp (which means little on rookies…everyone impresses). But I couldn’t see him against NFL talent in the preseason to really ‘know’.
Played near as many snaps as Anthony Miller Week 1, in a mild shock to me. Out-snapped Miller Week 2, and scored a TD. The #2 WR on the Chicago Bears is Darnell Mooney…and most people aren’t aware and don’t really care.
You should care.
How much, is difficult to answer. What’s the #2 WR on the Bears worth…especially splitting with Miller to some degree?
Mooney has that ‘Diontae look’ to me, to some degree. Very fast. Sharp cuts. Great hands…is a really a very good WR (I know this from my CFM studies and subsequent scouting report). But Mooney is a rookie…on a weak offense with a revolving QB situation ahead. However, being the #2 WR, being a talent, seeing ARob get all the top coverage – it’s got my FF-interest piqued. But, where did Taylor Gabriel get us the past two years in a similar spot? BUT, Anthony Miller popped late last year because he was ‘there/available’.
I don’t think a Mooney breakout is imminent/next week but he should be on the radar the deeper your redraft rosters go – and deeper Dynasty rosters, now is the time to start seeing if you have a spot to put him in/acquire fairly cheap.
Diontae in Chicago wouldn’t be ‘Diontae’/AB 2.0…because there is no Big Ben, so be careful how excited you get by my hinting. I’m probably quite early to this party and I need to see more of his NFL work, but what I’ve seen so far…I’m really encouraged that he might hit for the future, but also be useful now in some respects actually playing for the Bears already.
If you ask me about picking Mooney up on Video Q&A or whatever…you gotta tell me ‘in place of who?’.
Snap Counts of Interest:
53 = ARob
39 =Mooney
29 = Wims
26 = Anth Miller
35 = D Montg
21 = Cohen
14 = CPatt
65 = Peppers
65 = Bradberry
64 = J Love
55 = Logan Ryan
29 = Ballentine
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 2 Game Analysis: Steelers 26, Broncos 21
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
The Steelers led 17-3 at halftime. They had sent Drew Lock out of the game. Courtland Sutton would be lost for the year eventually. Everything that could go wrong for Denver was going wrong…and, yet, with 7+ minutes remaining…the Broncos had a couple of shots/drives to win the game at the end.
I’m not sure if it was the Steelers got lax or if the Broncos are just so scrappy (and enjoy losing closing games, as they do)…but it ended up closer than it felt watching it. Denver is scrappy. The Steelers are still a bit sloppy but might have the best defense in football…so they’ll only fade so far in a game.
Pittsburgh gets more of a test this week with Houston…as they inch closer to a Week 7 showdown at Baltimore. I don’t know how good the Steelers…I should say I don’t know how great they are. I know they are good, but are they legit Super Bowl contenders? I think they are, but we’ll get another clue this week v. a tougher/desperate Houston.
Denver has lost a couple of it’s best players, heart & soul types…and they cannot recover from it. Courtland Sutton and Von Miller out for the season, and Phillip Lindsay and A.J. Bouye missing…it’s almost a ‘win’ in this close loss because it’s a miracle they were in it to the end (or the Steelers aren’t as good as we think). Denver hosts Tampa Bay this week and that might be closer than the Bucs/the public expects too.
Denver has lost too many top players and has too tough a schedule from Week 5 on to make any noise for 2020. They should start selling pieces now. Drew Lock getting hurt was the best thing that ever happened to this team, but they don’t see it that way.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- First things first…I don’t think you fully appreciate what is happening with Diontae Johnson (8-92-1/13). Sure, you’re happy he had a big game. You’re hopeful. You like him. You’re encouraged.
You are sitting on Antonio Brown in the making…and this AB 2.0 is ALSO with Big Ben. We have a QB that knows what this means/how to use it. If it were Derek Carr/Jon Gruden + Diontae, he’d be blocking for run plays every down and having 2-3 catches a game and no one would care.
You have a WR1 in PPR with Diontae, no more questions asked this year.
If Diontae ever stops ___-ing up the first few plays of each game, it would be nice. Week 1…muffed punt and then a drop and then a wrong route – and then gold the rest of the way. Week 2…fumbled a jet sweep first play, a drop soon after, and then gold.
The Steelers WR group after two games…
14 rec., 23 targets, 149 yards, 1 TD = Diontae
13 rec., 14 targets, 117 yards, 2 TDs = JuJu
05 rec., 05 targets, 127 yards, 1 TD = Claypool (now a viable FF player suddenly)
02 rec., 03 targets, 34 yards 1 TD = Washington
The thing is…98% of the FF population would feel better if they had Chris Godwin or D.J. Moore instead. If you don’t have Diontae, you can still get him…but it will cost you. It might be a sacrifice you want to make.
I suspect many of you don’t fully appreciate the treasure you possess in Diontae…that you fully feel the full value…like someone else who struggles with valuations: https://youtu.be/xyyqoHCkw9I
-- Speaking of WR greatness…Chase Claypool (3-88-1/3) is coming on so fast it’s amazing. I projected him as future-great/top of the WR draft class type talent, but I didn’t think it could happen with this WR group in place this quickly. I’m so happy Claypool is getting a chance to shine.
He might be a week or two away from being a legit starter, especially in non-PPR leagues. Claypool and Diontae are two of the best WR talents I’ve scouted in the past 5 years…both on the same team, and Claypool isn’t starting yet, but it won’t be long now.
This is why I’ve been anti-JuJu Smith-Schuster (7-48-0/8)…he’s got too much talent enveloping him for touches.
-- Chase Claypool doesn’t go 1st-round of the NFL Draft, isn’t a starter, makes 3rd-round chump money for the next four years…and yet Jerry Jeudy (4-62-0/7), who sucks by the way, is a multi-millionaire 1st-round pick. And yet we trust the NFL analysts inherently…
In case you’re wondering, Jeudy has 4 drops this season…all on passes over the middle. I think the NFL has only tagged him with two and none in this game…but he flat out dropped two easy passes here – because he heard footsteps. That’s why he sucks. He’s S-A-W-F-T. He is quite bouncy though, and that’s cool to look at when they talk about his bounciness for 10 minutes and never address the massive drops problem he has.
Rabbitt (expert Denver analyst/fan), am I wrong here?
-- Also, one of the best WRs I have ever scouted is Courtland Sutton (3-66-0/6)…who went in the 2nd-round of his draft because NFL analysts are above reproach by guys like me…he came back from his shoulder injury like a beast in this game…and then was taken away from us with an ACL.
Saquon and CMC take the headlines, but FFM-land got crushed this week too, in retrospect…we lost Parris Campbell and Courtland Sutton. That really stings. This year is crazy…and we’re two weeks in. Never been a season start like this for me…radical FF scoring from single players against teams killing teams, plus all these injuries. That’s why you can’t panic off two tough games to start the season…there’s a lot of spasms, high-highs and low-lows and injuries throwing everything off it’s normal flow.
We’re just two weeks in.
We just have to stay in the game, make smart not panic moves, and let the luck/fortune turn our way.
-- Noah Fant (4-57-1/5) is the big winner of Courtland going out (and Jeudy sucking). He’ll be the de facto #1/go-to for Denver now. How great that is with Drew Lock remains to be seen. It won’t be bad with Jeff Driskel. It’s not got the upside we’d hope…now teams are going to start defending it.
-- Speaking of Jeff Driskel (18-34 for 256 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT), he’s better than Drew Lock…that’s not a huge compliment, it’s just a fact. Not much changes with him in and Lock out…except Driskel is better for all.
-- We got to see the debut of K.J. Hamler (3-48-0/7) in this game. There’s literally 50 WRs just like him that are backups. I don’t get the huge appeal of Hamler. He is starting and will see targets, so there’s that. He isn’t terrible…just very tiny and OJ/good not good/great…on a bad passing game.
Damiere Byrd or Keelan Cole or Darnell Mooney are more exciting/better FF WRs.
-- Was anyone surprised James Conner (16-106-1, 2-12-0/2) would not get a full push back into the bell cow role? He will have it until his next injury…+/- 2-3 weeks.
-- The Denver-DST isn’t bad. They really gave a good/efficient Tennessee offense all they could handle Week 1. They held the Steelers to 2-for-12 on 3rd-downs. They got two turnovers. They pushed a very good Steelers offense/Big Ben. They fought hard against two playoff teams.
Three of the next 4 weeks they are viable, for FF. Week 3 hosting Tampa Bay might not be bad, but it’s not preferred. If Bouye is back, it’s not terrible.
You pick them up Week 3 to have them Week 4 v. NYJ.
Week 5 at NE is shaky but doable. Week 6 against Miami at home works well.
Not a hot DST, but one decent among the rubble of the unclaimed. And one to look ahead to Week 4.
-- The Steelers are in the argument for best defense in the NFL now, but before we get too excited – they have faced Daniel Jones and Jeff Driskel, so far. We don’t know how good/great they are. Facing HOU and at TEN the next two weeks aren’t gimmies, but worthy FF plays…just not top FF plays those weeks. Week 7-8-9 is at BAL, BYE, at DAL…that’s a stretch where you need a 2nd DST. You don’t wanna get rid of the Steelers totally then but they’re fine leading up to that stretch and then we’ll see.
In this game, the Steelers had 7 sacks, 13 TFLs, and 19 QB Hits.
By comparison, Denver had 1 sack, 6 TFLs, and 3 QB Hits.
Snap Counts of Interest:
59 = JuJu
54 = Diontae
31 = Washington
24 = Claypool
50 = Conner
10 = Snell
61 = M Gordon
16 = Royce Freeman
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 2 Game Analysis: Bucs 31, Panthers 17
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
This felt like a blowout watching the tape…it was 21-0 Bucs at the half. The Bucs seemed to do whatever they wanted, and the Panthers looked jumpy/skittish and on their way to certain defeat. Somehow, with 2:00 minutes left, the Panthers kicked a field goal to make it 24-17 Bucs, a one score game. The Bucs scored on the first play of that next drive and it was ‘over’.
The Panthers have not looked great, but somehow -- they are in games with good teams to the end (took Las Vegas to the wire, and almost caught the Bucs here). They will be a tough out. Their defense is not ready to help them win games just yet. A little more seasoning may show them to be a better unit 2nd-half of the season.
I think the Panthers would really shine facing a defense with a low-pressure front/bad pass rush. Teddy needs time, but unfortunately they have nothing but aggressive defenses (now that ATL is a higher pressure front) until Week 10, and only Week 11 will they get a break (v. DET). Without CMC, it’s even worse pressure coming. The Panthers are in for a rude awakening ahead via schedule, if I’m right…because defensive pressure is their kryptonite. If you can bet a win total ‘under’ for the ROS, it might be a winner.
The Bucs are the ultimate high-pressure front and forced Teddy Bridgewater into two picks and no TD passes. They also registered 5 sacks. The Bucs have an emerging, top NFL/FF defense. Their offense is pretty good too. This is a legit playoff team, except I’m not sure Tom Brady has enough juice left to go all the way…but he may just need more time to adjust to his surroundings.
Tampa will be in some ‘slog’ games at DEN, v. LAC, at CHI then next three weeks. We might see the power run game of Tampa emerge as the lead punch…not Brady flinging it all around.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- OK, Christian McCaffrey (18-59-2, 4-29-0/5) is projected to be out for 3-6 weeks. That’s long enough that the replacement RB matters for a bit for FF but short enough time to deal with where Carolina is not going to do anything radical at RB, like go out and make a trade or sign the ghost of Devonta Freeman, etc.
Mike Davis (1-1-0, 8-74-0/8) played more in this game than any Carolina RB I think I’ve seen in 2-3 years…he was coming on some 3rd-downs early in the game. He was in the third play of the game – they trust Mike Davis. It’s Davis that you want for this backfield for FF for the short term.
Trenton Cannon is listed 3rd-string, but he’s more of a 3rd-down/2-minute drill screen pass option…not a real RB, per se.
The wild card is Reggie Bonnafon, who is on the practice squad. He was the guy backing up CMC in 2019, and he made some splash plays in the preseason and regular season the past two years. I was surprised the Panthers cut him and put him on the practice squad. He may not be the new regime’s cup of tea…which is why I lean heavy Mike Davis coming up -- but note that the offense changes with Davis vs. McCaffrey. I doubt we see Davis getting a thousand targets a game…except he got 8 targets in this game working the late comeback efforts.
Link: https://youtu.be/rj96vXx3wxg
Davis has RB1 potential short-term, if given a chance…but always seems to get hurt whenever he does get that chance (thus, keep an eye on Bonnafon).
If the Panthers sign an RB, just a generic…it might be over for Bonnafon here.
I would suspect a highly paid CMC on a bad football team not contending…I would think he’s not rushing back to action. I’d project him out longer rather than shorter.
-- Just as interesting, maybe more…we look at the soap opera that is the Tampa Bay backfield.
Leonard Fournette (12-103-2, 4-13-0/5) possibly laid claim to getting into more of a starter’s role here. We’ll see. I want to show you what happened in this game for the rotation, and you can decide what you think…
Ronald Jones (7-23-1, 2-4-0/2) started, as he does, and looked fine…scored on a sweet 7-yard TD run. Everything was normal…Jones started.
Fournette was seen entering the game in the 2nd-quarter.
Jones went to take a tricky hand-off from Brady on a delayed draw, there was a bad fumble on the exchange, a turnover. Brady was seen yelling on the sidelines about it (in my estimation, it was 97% Brady’s fault…but no one will ever say that to the prince of Tom-pa Bay).
If you didn’t watch the game, or even if you did among several games at one time (like me)…it seemed like that fumble was the catalyst for the rise of Fournette. But watching the tape…it wasn’t.
The very next series, after the RoJo (really Brady) fumble…Jones was in, and took the first play/carry. Everything was fine. In fact, Jones was out there first in most of the series after the fumble. No doghouse. No punishment.
Fournette kept working in and out and caught fire and they just literally ‘ran with it’. Fournette was running like the beast he is – a hammer up the middle, and rewatching this he wasn’t so bad on the outside. It’s just he’s so much more effective between the guards.
From the tape…it felt like RoJo was the guy…the purposed starter, but then I look and see Fournette played 26 snaps, RoJo 21 snaps, and McCoy 11.
Fournette looked much better this week than last…but Jones is not a chump in this equation. It’s entirely possible Tampa is about to turn into a power run team…the best power tandem run team in the NFL…and both guys end up producing.
You want both to make sure you have ‘the one’…it’s too late to get Fournette now, but Jones is probably on sale. The way RBs are dying, you want tandems when they are this talented…for your protection.
Last week, I thought Ronald Jones was going to hold that job for several more weeks. Now, Fournette made a move and I get a vibe that Fournette is inevitable but it’s always going to be a split role, a 1-2 punch unless one of them seriously messes up/gets hurt – and Jones is more likely to be the one set back in a few weeks. I don’t think Brady would ever be screaming at the sidelines near Fournette or he might get punched in the face.
‘Face’ is a good term of where this backfield is going – I feel like Fournette is the ‘face’ of what the TB team wants to be, so eventually…Fournette will be the lead ‘face’….a 60/40 lead. Until then, Fournette is just another talented guy getting 8-12 carries a game with 1-4 targets…which I just described several ‘starting’ NFL RB’s touch counts. Fournette as a backup will get low-end starter-level touches.
-- You want the TB RBs because this offense is going to be good. Why? Not because of Tom Brady (23-35 for 217 yards, 1 TD/1 INT), per se. Brady is now a very good game manager, but this power run game takes pressure off the passing game and the O-Line looks really good protecting Brady (Carolina had ZERO sacks and just ONE QB hit all game) and in run blocking.
Note for Brady: This was a no pressure defense on Brady, with a so-so/weaker secondary – and Brady threw for just 217 yards and 1 TD. The power run tandem might be the future of this offense, if Brady allows it…but then that opens up Brady too.
-- It’s turning into a Bruce Arians offense more than a Brady one…meaning the TEs are useless for fantasy. O.J. Howard (1-11-0/3) looks stiff and Gronk (1-11-0/3) looks shot. Cameron Brate may be their best TE…but it won’t matter for FF.
-- You thought Brady was going to turn Scotty Miller (2-11-0/3) into Julian Edelman here, but you got burned. I bought it too. Note…Miller had a 21-yard TD pass go right through his hands or this would have been a touch different outcome.
-- Teddy Bridgewater (33-43 for 367 yards, 0 TDs/2 INTs) looks very jumpy under any pressure. High pressure defenses are going to expose him from what I’m seeing. Teddy has very good passer instincts and good ball placement, when he’s comfortable…but when he has any pressure he gets nervous and throws offline and into danger in 2020.
It’s a weird scouting event to judge…he can look so solid one play and then terrible the next…missing wide-open throws or throwing passes behind receivers instead of in-front of them. Maybe, Teddy gets more comfortable as he goes…but I don’t love what I see. He’ll be good for garbage time when the pressure is less, and the defense is ‘preventing’.
Teddy’s on-target throw percentage (% of attempts deemed on-target) is 32.9% right now (through 2 games). It was 81.3% behind the great O-Line of the Saints in 2019. By comparison, Brady is at 76.5% in 2020, was 73.1% in 2019.
-- OK, OK enough with the Curtis Samuel (2-13-0/2, 4-26-0) talk from me. It’s likely never going to happen…he’s never going to be used to seriously run the ball.
Sure, he got 4 carries here…but all jet sweeps/reverses. It’s a good sign that he got four carries but I was hoping he’d line up in the backfield some and really be a unique wrinkle…he’s not. Without CMC, we’ll see if he moves into the backfield some…but I doubt it. And in an all-pass comeback effort late, where a lot of the junk stats for everyone for CAR came from, Samuel saw 2 targets all game. That’s enough for me…no more hoping here.
-- The Panthers signed Rasul Douglas (7 tackles) when the Eagles cut him before the season started, and now he’s a starter. Douglas has knack for FF stats, so watch him for IDP.
-- I’m seeing some signs of ‘it’ with the Bucs defense again this week. They were pitching a shutout for the first half, then kinda played soft and let Carolina mosey on back into the game.
Still, the TB-DST held Carolina to 17 points…while getting 5 sacks and forcing 4 turnovers. This is going to be a very aggressive defense that might give up some points/yards but has a high probability for turnovers and D TDs.
Snap Counts of Interest:
54 = Watson
53 = Evans
42 = Miller
42 = Gronk
34 = Howard
04 = Brate
26 = Fournette
21 = Jones
11 = McCoy
65 = DJ Moore
54 = Robby A
51 = Samuel
47 = McCaffrey
24 = M Davis
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 2 Game Analysis: Browns 35, Bengals 30
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
This was a game of Cleveland constantly going up two scores, the Bengals then responding cutting it to a one score game, then the Browns back up two scores, the Bengals answering to cut it one, and the Browns would answer to go up by two scores…until finally the clock expired and the Browns won (and Bengals covered me +6.0, thank you Lord).
18 legit drives in the game between the two teams, and 11 of them resulted in some kind of score. Another drive was halted on a 4th & 2 to-go goal line shot. You can complement the offenses…or mock the defenses.
…I think it was the defenses.
The Browns climb to (1-1) but I wouldn’t trust them as far as you could throw them. They should beat Washington in Week 3, but that’s not assured...and a Week 3 win would set off a Browns revival/tizzy and then they’ll get stomped out from there. It’s a 5-6-7 win team depending upon their secondary getting back healthy.
The Bengals have stayed close for two games in a row now, and it’s all because of Burrow…because other than that this team does not look good. The fact that the Bengals looked good/strong against LAC opening day would make me scared to death for the Chargers season ahead (unless they permanently switch to Justin Herbert). Cincy will be lucky to win 3-4 games this year. There are too many head winds and rebuilding/retooling/dumping of the roster as we go this season for Burrow to try and flirt with any type of shock .500/8-win season.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- My biggest takeaway from this game… Folks, A.J. Green (3-29-0/13) is ‘shot’; he’s done. He’s no longer a legit #1 NFL WR. I don’t even know how good of an NFL starting WR he is anymore.
Now, perhaps he’s secretly injured…so, give that allowance – but what I am seeing on tape is frightening. He’s gotten so slow/stiff. His routes are so not-sharp. Denzel Ward (3 tackles, 3 PDs) ate him alive. It was child’s play. AJG ‘earned’ that terrible stat line.
I went back and watched his Week 1 targets just to see why I didn’t notice it last week, and I saw the same slow/troublesome WR in Week 1. Now that I saw/caught it on Week 2 TNF…I could see it in Week 1 as well.
In two games in 2020, Green has been targeted 22 times…caught 8 of them (37%) – that’s atrocious considering he’s playing with a very good Joe Burrow in an offense that is passing a lot against softer coverage. AJG has faced tough corners out of the gates, but it’s not that…it's that he is visibly ‘shot’ is the only word I can use to describe it (or he’s secretly hurt).
If AJG is ‘done’, functionally ‘done’…the ‘winner’ is going to be Tyler Boyd (7-72-1/8). Like he was here. You want in on Boyd for PPR with Joe B., but the price jumped after his TNF game…but it’s probably not going to go near high enough as it should and the TNF effort will be lost through all the Sunday and Monday events. People don’t really believe in or hold Boyd in high regard – he’s going to be an excellent ‘buy low’ this week…even if the price is higher than it was last week.
Boyd should be priced/acquired as a WR2-2.5…because if we were redrafting again today, he would go in about the same area of the draft…around the 30th WR off the board. People still think A.J. Green is the #1 here, and that holds Boyd’s value down still.
-- Speaking of ‘shot’ WRs…Odell Beckham (4-74-1/6) had a moment on national TV…which creates a great chance to ‘sell it’. He does get Washington in Week 3, so he might have one more TD in him before the fade to WR3-ville for the season.
Even with this great/juicy matchup, OBJ got all of 6 targets and 4 catches. To be fair, he had another 40+ yard TD stolen by a P.I. where he got held on a sure bomb TD pass, that he couldn’t get to because his jersey was grabbed as the pass was coming in for a landing. OBJ has become DeSean Jackson…seeks the safety of bombs to stay away from any interior contact. Has a moment every so often…but the ‘legend’ is greater than the reality.
-- It’s sad to say that Joe Burrow (37-61 for 316 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT) is already better than Baker Mayfield (16-23 for 219 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT)…it’s the cool thing to say now in order to put down Baker, but it’s reality – but also Burrow is perhaps the single greatest QB prospect to come out of college football ever.
Also, Baker is stuck in an ill-fitting offense with terrible/not-trying WRs. Baker setting the rookie passing TD record in 2018, despite not starting the season, despite working with Hue Jackson, despite a coaching change midseason, despite how bad the Browns were then…it’s all been forgotten and Baker is being written off. You saw some flashbacks to good-Baker in this game, but it was also against a bad Bengals defense.
Baker only threw for 219 yards here. This is now considered a ‘good’ game for Baker now…219 yards and 2 TDs…and that was against a bad defense. Get used to these weak stat lines from Baker because the Browns are going to copycat Mike Zimmer’s heavy run game/style under Kevin Stefanski, and with good reason – Chubb/Hunt is all they got. They can win as an RB heavy and hopeful/mildly talented defense unit. This current Cleveland team trying to pass their way to victory is a waste because of OBJ/Landry (and no ‘real’ third option). They will stick with the run/RBs centric offense.
Baker, for FF, in Cleveland, is functionally FF-dead…a worse Kirk Cousins (for FF). Only a change of teams could save him, and even then…it would be a whole new offense/receivers, etc. I thought the Browns would unleash Baker in 2019 to throw at will…that plan got dashed in one season, and now he’s an FF-chump in 2020. Not his fault, but it’s a reality we have to deal with on him.
-- Joe Burrow looked fine once again…he’s a QB1 in 4 or 6pts ROS. I hoped he would be a QB1 in the preseason. I thought it more possible after watching Week 1 tape. It’s official now. End of story. QB1…back-end.
-- Another Joe Mixon (16-46-0, 4-40-0/4) FF dud…it means he due for a pop ahead. He’s getting good touches and got the best targeting here in a while it seems. I’m not in hot pursuit, but he is becoming a buy low – a legit top RB (for touches, etc.) people are starting bail on.
Gio Bernard (1-3-0, 5-22-0/7) gets too many 3rd-down/2-minute offense snaps, but Mixon is still fine regardless. Mixon is ‘the man’ here.
-- More than a few of you took the Nick Chubb (22-124-2, 1-9-0/1) and Kareem Hunt (10-86-1, 2-16-1/2) combo on purpose for 2020…hoping that Hunt would stand on his own for PPR, and/or get traded, and/or was a smart handcuff.
It looks like the Chubb-Hunt dual-threat plan in Cleveland is what is going to happen, because the Browns have little else going for them. They’re both going to co-exist.
Just note, this great moment was against the Bengals…let’s not think they’re dual RB1s. More likely they are dual RB1.5-2.0s. The Bengals defense is soft, their linebackers are shaky, and they were missing two DTs for this game.
-- I wondered if Austin Hooper (2-22-0/4) might start to see a few more targets as the WRs let Baker down again. The answer to that here was ‘NO’. He’s still just a bit player at this point. I haven't written him off yet, but I am not really interested in him either.
-- Cincy IDP notes…
CB Will Jackson (5 tackles, 1 PD) got burned by OBJ for a long TD, and then almost again soon after. Jackson looks stiff and not the elite cover guy he was coming out of the University of Houston.
Germaine Pratt (2 tackles) followed up a sweet debut Week 1 with a dud 2 tackle effort here. For as much as teams will run at Cincy, Pratt has to do better than this for IDP.
-- Browns’ IDP notes…
DB Tavierre Thomas (9 tackles) has had a nice start to 2020, but not he may dry up and disappear once the injured Browns’ starters return soon.
LB B.J. Goodson (7 tackles, 1 PD) is averaging 8.0 total tackles per game this year, but note…as soon as Mack Wilson can return, then Goodson probably dries up and disappears too.
Snap Counts of Interest:
36 = Chubb
20 = Hunt
78 = Boyd
60 = Higgins
57 = AJG
32 = Mk Thomas
28 = Ross
46 = Mixon
42 = Gio
