- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 1: Dolphins 17, Patriots 16
The best way I can describe this game is – it was like I was watching left-handed Tua (Tua) facing off against right-handed Tua (Mac Jones) in a contest of who could get rid of the ball faster. As if there were a secret device inside the football that was going to blow up at a random hot potato time, and the QBs knew they needed to be rid of the problem as quickly as possible.
The better Tua did not win in the end. As the Pats were driving into the goal-to-go area with 3+ minutes left, Damien Harris fumbled it away and that allowed Miami to run the clock out and take their 1-point lead and turn it into a lucky victory.
Both teams quick-passed and ran it heavy at each other in a boring manner. New England was better in all phases, but not by much…but they did have a stellar 37/23 time of possession win, which usually means a real NFL win -- but two lost fumbles were a killer in the ‘playing it safe’ bowl of Week 1. By every key stat…yards, yards per play, time of possession, sacks, 3rd-down conversions…the Pats should have won this game easily…but they didn’t.
This was not a good start to my Miami under win total bet for 2021 but watching the tape…I feel confident I will cash that ticket in the end.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Let’s talk about left-handed Tua (16-27 for 202 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) first…
Another simplistic game where Tua predetermines his read and takes a quick/1-to-3-step drop and fires before anyone can react to it. It’s a short game, dink-and-dunk style offense…that works when there is no pressure. If you can get into 3rd-and-long, Tua is dead. If you make Tua go to his right, he’s dead. If I were an NFL coordinator, I would blitz Tua from his left constantly to force him to go right -- which is going to be his kryptonite…on top of the fact that he’s not a real NFL QB.
Matt Patricia is a literal rocket scientist…and couldn’t figure this out with a year of tape already. But after seeing what he did with the Lions the past few years…I am not surprised.
Tua is still Tua…a little more confident and settled this year, but same old quick pass and pray. Don’t take my word for it…read what the Patriots top CB had to say after the game:
Patriots cornerback J.C. Jackson gave a candid response when asked about Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa's fourth-quarter interception, which could have cost Miami the game had it not recovered a Damien Harris fumble on New England's ensuing drive.
"That's what Tua do," Jackson told reporters after the game when asked about the interception via the Boston Herald's Andrew Callahan. "If he doesn't have his first read, he's just gonna throw the ball up."
Had New England not coughed this up to Miami…had Miami lost, and then lost to Buffalo Week 2 – there would be a Tua revolution starting to overthrow him. Tua gets a one-week reprieve from that. The time will be coming…
-- Right-handed Tua, Mac Jones (29-39 for 281 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) was mimicking Tua at first – a ton of 3-step drops and quick no-read fire. Hey, it worked…I guess. It moved the ball efficiently, until they get closer to the end zone/a short field then it gets crowded to try and do that as efficiently.
However, as the game went on Mac started quick firing from more 5-step drops and pushing the ball, finding receivers downfield. Mac Jones played a solid game here. He is progressing nicely. He’s already better than Tua will ever be. He looked, mostly, like a real QB from about halfway through the 2nd-quarter on.
But I wouldn’t count on a ton of Fantasy passing tallies anytime soon, for him or his receivers. But hope is on the horizon that he’s a midrange/good passer that allows for decent PPR tallies for his receivers…probably in another few weeks, and not facing any top tier defenses.
In general, Mac Jones looks like ‘the real deal’…meaning, he can play. He’s smart. Good mechanics. The more he learns his craft, the better he’s going to get. But under a Bill Belichick system and given the later season weather – it will probably never be that great for FF purposes. It won’t be bad, but it will be good/solid/better for the NFL than FF.
Tom Brady used to roll top 5-10 FF scoring numbers 4-5+ years ago, back when there were only a handful of decent QBs pushing bigger FF numbers. Now, the league has exploded with dynamic playmakers with nice footspeed – and Jones isn’t there yet and isn’t a real runner. Jones is going to be good in the end, but probably a top 15-20 Fantasy QB producer and not a top 10 one.
-- The top targets for Tua…
I’d say, over time 2021, Jaylen Waddle (4-61-1/5) will probably be the top target. Because it works better in the flow of Tua’s style…quick 3-step or 1-step drop and fire passes quickly to receiver parallel to the line of scrimmage – like a tunnel screen, bubble screen, extended handoff, etc. Also, quick designed very short slants on occasion. Miami seems to have plays designed for Waddle that Tua can handle. Their get the ball to Waddle quickly and hope for good things plan is not a new one for a WR, it just makes sense with what Tua can do…but mostly results in a bunch of short yardage plays. A four catch for 50+ yards week is to be expected often here…and then you have to hope he finds his way for a TD. It’s not the worst thing for a speedy WR like Waddle for FF…4-5 touches a game hoping he springs one. He would be my #1 choice of the Miami lot for FF.
DeVante Parker (4-81-0/7) led in targets bit it was another low connection rate. Tua looked for Parker when he went downfield…but it’s not smooth or consistent. When Will Fuller arrives (if he ever does), it will be much of the same for him plus he’ll splitting into Parkers’ targets some, little as they may be.
-- The top target for Mac…
Jakobi Meyers (6-44-0/9) makes a nice pitch-and-catch WR option for Mac. As Jones started out with a Tua style (get rid of it fast on predesigned throws), the WRs were not as involved because they could barely get into their routes before passes were dumped off. But as this game wore on, Jones got more comfortable and was turning into more flashes of Tom Brady style – longer drop backs and then firing short and medium downfield…with success. Meyers was a nice option to find for Jones.
James White (4-12-0, 6-49-0/7) is probably Mac’s favorite throw right now, but that may be fleeting as he gets more comfortable throwing past the line of scrimmage and downfield. This works for now.
Nelson Agholor (5-72-1/7) looked like a solid target as the game wore on, and Jones got more comfortable. He and Meyers are the top targets…but I don’t see Mac really leaning on any one guy except James White as a checkdown.
The two TEs combined for a boring 8 targets combined. Jonnu Smith (5-42-0/5) was more involved of the two TEs, but it wasn’t exciting. Hunter Henry (3-31-0/3) looks like good money wasted in free agency, and a TE2 this season.
-- The same way James White is a nice checkdown in a short/get-rid-of-it-quick passing game, Myles Gaskin (9-49-0, 5-27-0/5) is that guy for Tua. It’s a safe, quick pass for him. Gaskin showed all the signs of being the #1 back here. Malcolm Brown (5-16-0/5) was a limited presence…who ran a couple of useless wildcat plays as his big contribution.
-- Damien Harris (23-100-0, 2-17-0/3) rules the ground in this game for NE…a lot of carries, for a lot of short yardage gains but efficient enough, Harris opened the game with a 35-yard run, then had 75 yards on 22 carries (3.4 ypc) the rest of the way.
-- I was hoping the Patriots-DST would be good+ with a great early season schedule. They were solid here, but minus Stephon Gilmore…and Tua just quick passing and so willing to punt and play defense, it was hard to get bigger DST numbers in this one. However, they did drop 1-2 easy picks of Tua…and they did hit him 9 times, but only got two sacks to show for it. Overall, not bad…but no major DST numbers in this one, but not bad.
The Pats-DST faces Z. Wilson, Winston before Brady comes to town…then Tyrod. Still a good option for three of the next 4 weeks, in theory.
-- Kyle Dugger (7 tackles) was constantly listed as a 2nd-teamer on depth charts this offseason…but he started and played 95% of the snaps. As a starter, he will lead the Pats in tackles, I bet…and be a DB1 performer.
Snap Counts of Interest:
74 = Meyers
74 = Agholor
55 = Jonnu
54 = H Henry
33 = Bourne
40 = Dam Harris
28 = J White
05 = Rhamondre
45 = D Parker
43 = Waddle
38 = Smythe
21 = Gesicki
Rookies…
26 = Barmore (49%)
24 = Jevon Holland (32%)
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 1: Broncos 27, Giants 13
The Giants scored a meaningless TD as time expired, or this would have been a 27-7 deemed blowout. The eventual 14-point win on the road is pretty impressive as it is.
Actually, rewatching this game…the Giants were a little better than the score indicated, but so many self-inflicted wounds. The Giants are just short of what it takes to be a consistent winning team. They have pieces. They play hard. They just don’t have the firepower on offense or the blocking to get to ‘winning’ consistently.
Denver is the aspiration of the G-Men…a stable QB with a good O-Line and a tough defense, an old-school good football team. The Giants wish they were the Broncos, but they are not. This was a solid win for the Broncos, but I wasn’t wildly impressed or blown away with them…they took care of business because they are better than the Giants. They should win this game more times than not. They did. The schedule is the Broncos friend Weeks 1-3, then we’ll see if they can start out (3-0) and then go (7-7) the rest of the way to get to 10 wins and a wild card.
*Note, I am writing this game report after having watched NYG-WSH on TNF Week 2. So, I will mix some live watch Week 2 perspective in on NYG notes here.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The biggest FF-impression made on me from this game (and from watching Week 2) – Saquon Barkley (10-26-0, 1-1-0/3) is going to kill your FF teams, for those that took him as a ‘bargain’ in the 1st-round of redrafts 2021.
Barkley looks fine, but it’s the surrounding circumstances that are killing him. Defenses key on Barkley, and they want Daniel Jones to try and beat them…knowing he’s a high-turnover guy. Barkley is going to have the same issue David Johnson had in Arizona his final two years and his lone year in Houston after that – high-level of talent, but no O-Line and defenses keying on him, so he has no room to run. Every tote is a slog…every carry a disappointment watching him if you owned him for FF.
I don't own any Saquon Barkley, but I have owned DJ a lot the past few years…and been tortured seeing a talent go to waste. I can, you can, the world can do all the scouting of these prospects they want – but the O-Line and QB matters more than the talent, unfortunately. Talent is part of the equation but not THE dominant factor.
With all the bad results, THEY will say that Barkley must be still having lingering effects of his injury…but I think it’s just a surrounding NYG circumstances issue.
Barkley’s numbers in his last 16 games (to mimic a used-to-be full season) during the Daniel Jones era:
248 carries, 1,000 yards rushing (4.03 ypc), 6 rushing TDs
57 catches (82 targets), 492 rec. yards, 2 rec. TDs
93.3 total yards per game, 0.50 TDs per game, 3.56 catches per game…high-end RB2 work.
In 4 games with Joe Judge the past two seasons:
57 rushing yards for a high in a game, no TDs, 2.88 yards per carry on 42 carries.
I don’t see how Saquon magically springs to a top FF RB going forward, not in 2021. The O-Line is still bad and has lost a couple of starters to injury already. Teams will still be fine letting Daniel Jones try and beat them. When he’s played the whole game (not left early hurt), Jones is 7-20-0 as a starter in the NFL, a 35% win-rate.
If you’re counting on Saquon for FF 2021…you are probably in big trouble. The first two weeks have been a disaster.
-- Speaking of Daniel Jones (22-31 for 267 yards, 1 TDs/0 INTs, 6-27-1)…he is looking better in 2021. Like…the better half of the bottom 10 QBs type of QB.
One of the reasons he is looking better is directly tied to Saquon – as defenses overplay Saquon, they thus dare Jones to beat them, and he is throwing into soft coverages or finding decent 1-on-1 matchups to heave prayers towards. It’s working not too bad, so far. He was OK here. He was good against Washington Week 2 TNF.
He still throws too many errant passes and throws into danger at the first sign of pressure, but when given enough time he can do what Mac Jones is doing for the Patriots – using the run game to help him quick-pass successfully like it’s a 7-on-7 throwing game. Only Mac Jones has a better O-Line, coaching, and is a better talent.
Jones is working OK as a passer, but then running more to suddenly make him an odd QB1 threat…a weak NFL QB who puts up good FF numbers.
If Saquon goes down, then Dan Jones is dead. He exists only by hiding behind Saquon.
-- Teddy Bridgewater (28-36 for 264 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT, 3-19-0) is doing a better version of what Daniel Jones is trying to do. Teddy is working safe/smart behind a much better O-Line. Plus, Teddy is a better QB in general…and for sure more experienced. And Teddy is showing a desire to run with it when available.
Bridgewater is a solid QB2, and possible bye week flyer on a proper matchup. Better for the NFL than for FF.
-- You’d rather have either of the Denver RBs for FF than Saquon. How FF-chilling is that statement? Again, O-Line rules.
What’s the status of the Denver backfield after one whole week?
Well, Melvin Gordon (11-101-1, 3-17-0/3) is definitely starting…but Javonte Williams (14-45-0, 1-0-0/1) is right there. This was not Gordon as the clear lead with Javonte sprinkled in. Javonte was into the game right away and sometimes was starting some series as the RB. It is only a matter of time before Javonte is the lead/main toucher…even if Gordon always ceremonially starts.
Three things to consider from these RBs in this game…
1) Gordon had a 70-yard TD run late…when the Giants were stacking the line to try and make a final stop to somehow stay in the game. Outside of that run, Gordon had 10 carries for 31 yards prior…3.1 ypc.
2) Javonte rushed 14 times for 3.2 ypc. The Giants might have a killer run defense in the making. They bottled up the WSH run game on TNF Week 2.
3) With Denver ahead 20-13 with 6+ minutes remaining, they got the ball back deep in their own territory. It was a key series where Denver could put NYG away (and they did). It was Javonte Williams in the game to start that key series – that’s a lot of faith for a rookie RB.
It’s only a matter of time.
My eyeballs saw there’s no comparison of Javonte and Gordon in 2021 Week 1…Javonte is way faster/quicker/better. It’s only a matter of time.
-- We all want to chase the latest and greatest young WR who looks like the next Tyreek or the next Davante or next DeAndre or next Julio…and we laugh off and ignore boring old Sterling Shepard (7-113-1/9) as beneath our sensibilities. We shrug off a team’s #1 WR to chase rookie fairy tales.
We shrugged off a guy (Shepard) who will be a top 5 PPR WR for FF scoring after Week 2…you will wish your Stefon Diggs, and Davante Adams had the same YTD numbers as Shepard after Week 2.
Can this keep up? Sure, why not? He just lit up Washington’s defense. And if Daniel Jones is getting a free ride to throw because of Saquon paranoia by defenses – then Shepard is going for the ride with Jones. Shepard has been Dan’s #1 target ever since Jones has been a starter. The question is – can Shepard stay healthy? Otherwise…he’s a solid WR2+ all day long in PPR.
-- The Denver #1 WR is Courtland Sutton (1-14-0/3)…and he got taken out by James Bradberry. Teddy didn’t even bother trying…there was plenty of opportunity elsewhere. Should be better days ahead for Sutton, but C.J. Henderson is no slouch Week 2. It’s not a gimme. Week 3 v. NYJ is the gimme.
Speaking of Denver WRs… You know their starters are Sutton-Patrick, right? That Tim Patrick (4-39-1/4) is the starter in 2WR sets…the 2WR/2TE sets that Fangio loves? It’s true.
Jerry Jeudy (6-72-0/7) came in on three WR sets and is working more like CeeDee Lamb now (and not just deep ball guy)…which is good for his FF purposes, but then he got landed on wrong/badly and hurt his calf. Watching that injury…I wouldn’t expect him back on the early estimates of his injury.
K.J. Hamler (3-41-0/4) was running as a #4 WR coming in and out as needed. He’ll be the #3 for a while with JJ gone
The main guys are Sutton-Patrick.
Don’t believe me?
Snap Counts for the WRs here:
53 = Sutton
46 = Patrick
31 = Jeudy
24 = Hamler
-- Three notes on Giants’ receivers…
1) Kenny Golladay (4-64-0/6) is looking back to healthy/speed but doesn’t look like the right fit to work with Jones…not to take him back to his lofty DET levels.
2) Kadarius Toney (2-0-0/2) was a ghost. Barely knew he played. And after the game he was shooting his mouth off about his role. That guy is a bust…even faster than I said he would be.
3) If Daniel Jones is seeing more time to throw and looks better…might Evan Engram (DNP) be his best FF-self upon return? I’m just saying…the passing game isn’t as bad as it was last year. As long as Saquon takes the heat, this pass game is not the worst.
-- I like the personnel and coaching on the NYG and DEN defenses. Both plausible NFL defenses to consider in the right matchups for FF DSTs.
However, NYG struggles more on offense…and doesn’t support the defense as well as what Denver does. Therefore, I like Denver better. BUT…neither is a candidate for some lockdown defensive greatness.
I always take a long look at DEN DST to see if THIS is the time Fangio rises up for a 2019 Bears defensive event. But I don’t see it here. The Denver defense is good, it’s not ‘wow’.
Either DST is slick/plausible in the right matchup. That’s why Denver was my go-to DST to start the year, when all else failed or the NE-BUF stream route wasn’t taken. Denver facing Jones-Lawrence-Z.Wilson is about as good as it gets these days. There are not many ‘great’ matchups for DSTs in the era of all good QBs…plus there is no ‘wow’ defense in the NFL anymore.
The only hope at ‘wow’ among DSTs seems to be Arizona since Washington $#!& the bed Week 2 vs. NYG.
Snap Counts of Interest:
29 = Barkley
24 = Booker
33 = Javonte
33 = Gordon
51 = Fant
37 = Albert O
22 = Saubert
Rookies:
16 = Surtain
08 = Brightwell
05 = Toney
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 1: Cardinals 38, Titans 13
This was a butt-whoopin’ from the opening whistle. There’s no need for a long explanation or minute description about this game itself, no nuisance takes – Arizona smoked the Titans. The only thing I could add is that the Titans are lucky – this could’ve been worse.
The Titans are weak/not as good as people expected, but they’re not horrible. The Colts look like ‘meh’. Maybe the 1st-place Texans really are the best team in the AFC South? Comedy aside, the AFC South will come down to Indy and Tennessee…and the Titans will probably finish around 8-9 wins and be a decent team…which further speaks to how impressive Arizona was here.
Oh, and Arizona is going to win the NFC West…sorry Cris Collinsworth – you and Matt Stafford can go make out on the couch while the Cardinals are hosting a playoff game.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- We have to start with the reason why Arizona stormed the Titans…that Arizona defense.
I saw a good amount of this live, so when I rewatched it to study it…I was looking to see if the Cardinals defense was really as good as I thought. I was trying to prove myself wrong…making sure I wasn't getting too hyped about something I decided on from the preseason.
After watching this back, the answer? Yep. They were better than I remembered.
I mean, the Titans could barely get a play for positive yardage in the 1st-quarter. Derrick Henry (17-58-0, 3-19-0/4) was eviscerated all game. Every pass was contested by coverage. Tannehill was swarmed every other drop back. Arizona had the best defense I saw in the preseason…and they carried that to Week 1. To my eyes, this is the best overall defense in football.
Three defenders to highlight…
1) Chandler Jones (6 tackles, 5 sacks, 4 TFLs) was a wrecking machine, obviously.
What I just want to point out is… That the greatest NFL coach of our lifetimes ditched 2021’s current top pass rusher/sack man and the reigning Super Bowl MVP QB WAYYY too short of the time he should have. Both have prospered away from Bill Belichick…a coach who just lost to Tua at home Week 1.
Bill, The Wizard of Oz called…he wants you to get out from behind his curtain.
Maybe Belichick is the greatest coach in football – he has single-handedly handed the Bucs a Super Bowl, the Cardinals the foundation for a top defense and a division title, the Chiefs a top O-Lineman (Thuney) in free agency to further cement their elite status…while Belichick-ite coaches go litter the NFL and lose/destroy NFL teams. The Lions (Patricia era), Titans, Dolphins, Houston (Bill O’Brien + now Jack Easterly), the Giants all have one thing in common…wait, two things in common: (1) they’re all dying franchises that won’t make the playoffs…and they have all Belichick people at the helm.
I’d name you the Belichick-offspring successful coaching staff or front office today to counter all those situations I just named…but there are none…including the current New England Patriots.
2) Byron Murphy (4 tackles, 3 PDs) has become a top NFL corner…not ‘the top’ just ‘a top’, emerging.
3) Isaiah Simmons (9 tackles, 2 PDs) looks so much better as a tackler this year than last…or his years at Clemson. No longer just a chase and drag down guy. I saw him bring down Derrick Henry on his own with not the best window at Henry, but he popped him and muscled him down quickly and halted him in his tracks all solo.
There are many defensive performers to laud here because this is not the Rams defense – driven by 2-3 superstars. No, the Cardinals are a true swarming unit that plays turned up to ‘11’ every minute of the game. Very impressive – it should earn D-C Vance Joseph another head coaching opportunity, which he will fail at (just stick to being a great D-C)…but it will happen after people comprehend what they see with the Arizona defense in 2021.
If Arizona goes and embarrasses Kirk Cousins and friends this week…then you know it wasn’t a one game fluke. I can’t wait for @JAX Week 3 for my new favorite DST.
-- Arizona can move the ball on offense as well, which makes them a lethal team…and maybe a Super Bowl contender.
Kyler Murray (21-32 for 289 yards, 4 TDs/1 INT, 5-20-1) looks better and better in this joke of an offensive scheme/plan. It’s a garbage Air Raid that Kyler makes work…makes improv plays in to keep it moving.
-- Who does Kyler throw to when not throwing to DeAndre Hopkins?
He spreads it around to…
A.J. Green (2-25-0/6), who is still mostly toast as an NFL WR. Thus the 33% completion rate to him here…and extension from his 45.2% clip with Cincy last season…a chunk of that being bad-with-Burrow when every other WR was prospering with Burrow.
Christian Kirk (5-70-2/5) had a game…but only 5 targets. He looks fine, but there just doesn’t seem to be the X-factor between he and Kyler…but it’s useful/it works.
Rondale Moore (4-68-0/5) was not as involved as I thought. Sure, he has numbers…but he was more out of the game, than in (20 snaps played) and his targets were either off improvisation or in a more garbage time capacity.
Moore still looks great, and his time is coming (because AJG is done). But it may be a few more weeks as they bring him along slowly, not try and feature him early on it appears.
-- Chase Edmonds (12-63-00, 4-43-0/40 is definitely the back to have here…especially in PPR.
James Conner (16-53-0) was an afterthought most of the time and got more carries late in the blowout trying to run out the clock.
-- Tennessee was so overwhelmed by the Cardinals defense that I don’t really have a ton of notes for the Titans offensive players. I don’t want to judge them when facing a machine like the Arizona defense 2021.
However, there is one main note – Julio Jones (3-29-0/6) is playing sloppy, uninspired football. Watching him this offseason and in this debut game – one could judge, from a distance, that Julio doesn’t seem to be ‘into it’ like you’d hope (if you owned him for FF…or the NFL). His time on top appears to be coming to an end…something Atlanta seems like they knew. Just in time. But let’s see what happens when they face non-Arizona defenses. But the radar has been triggered.
Snap Counts of Interest:
40 = D Henry
23 = McNichols
01 = Sargent
61 = D Hopkins
55 = AJ Green
39 = Kirk
20 = Moore
40 = Edmonds
34 = Conner
69 = Fulton
61 = J Jenkins
41 = Elijah Molden
- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 1: Chiefs 33, Browns 29 (By Ross Jacobs)
This was another really good game, and I have a somewhat shocking statement to make. I think the Browns might be the better team here. They were taking it to the Chiefs for 3 quarters and then a couple of missteps in about a 5 minute period opened the door for the Chiefs to charge through.
Credit the Chiefs, they never panicked and when the Browns gave them an inch they took a mile, but like we saw last year, this team is prone to getting down in games and then relying on Mahomes to throw them back in it. It works most of the time, but they aren't invincible. I'm absolutely convinced the Browns are a legit Superbowl threat now and one of the best teams in the AFC. Unfortunately, they lost what should have been a win here and it might cost them the #1 seed come playoff time and that is huge.
The Browns opened their first 3 drives with easy TD's. I mean they waltzed right down the field on the Chiefs like it was nothing. It was 22-10 Browns at the half and KC scored on their first possession in the second half to make it 22-17. The Browns started driving easily again, but a rare fumble from Nick Chubb gave KC the ball at the 45 and a FG soon after cut the Browns lead to 2. The entire 3rd quarter passed and the Browns ran a total of 4 plays. On their next drive the Browns did the same thing they'd done all game, drove the field and scored easily. KC hadn't done anything to stop them at this point. Seconds later though, Mahomes found Tyreek Hill 1-on-1 with John Johnson, and much like the Deebo Samuel play, Johnson lost track of the ball after Mahomes heaved it deep, Tyreek adjusted to make the catch and Johnson overran the play and had no chance to tackle Tyreek. 1 play, 75 yards, and a TD to make it 29-27.
KC finally managed to stall the Browns on their next drive with a Chris Jones sack, and you could feel the energy change as the team and fans got fired up. The Browns looked totally rattled. On Cleveland's first punt all game the punter inexplicably dropped the ball and KC took over at the Cleveland 15 yard line. Of course KC punched in the TD to take the lead and they never relinquished it. Baker Mayfield threw the game-sealing INT while falling to the ground and trying to throw the ball away.
It took a few strange, lucky plays for KC to win this game. A Chubb fumble, a dropped punt that gave KC an easy TD, and the heave to Tyreek all could easily have not happened and then we'd be talking about how great Cleveland looked. Instead we're left with the image of the mighty Chiefs charging back to crush the upstart Browns, and while there's some truth to that, it isn't the whole truth. This is a very good Browns squad, make no mistake. They are my bet to take down the NFC North although Baltimore and Pittsburgh probably won't go quietly. The Chiefs are the Chiefs. Great offense, suspect defense that just plays for a turnover or two to give Mahomes a slight edge. That's their pattern and it works for them. This was a heavyweight title fight and the Chiefs came out on top, but I'd be very careful about crowning them just yet. The Browns are ready to compete.
--Fantasy Notes
There's not much to cover for fantasy that everyone doesn't already know. Patrick Mahomes (27-36 for 337 yards, 3 TD/0 INT, 5-18-1) is doing what he always does.
Tyreek Hill (11-197-1/15, 1-4-0) and Travis Kelce (6-76-2/7) are the offense and everybody knows it but nobody can stop it. Tyreek obviously had a huge game and is still a top 3 WR, but don't expect him to put up this kind of game every week. The somewhat fluky 75 yard TD helped put him over the top. Otherwise we'd be looking at a nice 10-122-0 day.
RC seems to hate Clyde Edwards-Helaire (14-43-0, 3-29-0/3) but I really like his role this year and I think he's a sneaky buy low right now. 14 carries when the Chiefs are down all game is quite nice and there's no threat to his touches on this team. He's not going to lead the league in rushing or anything, but he's going to catch a decent number of passes and the TD's will come just because the offense as a whole is so good. I'll be trying to pick him up where I can this week.
RC NOTE: Where could we ever find RBs who get 14 carries in a game -- why pay a ‘name’ premium for 14 carries of nothing in most games he plays? 14 carries for 3.1 ypc...working with the greatest QB in history, which should open massive running lanes to work with on his 14 carries. But it didn;t...it almost never does with him. He’s a solid player but why pay the name value for RB2 results?
Nobody else really matters for this offense. Demarcus Robinson (1-9-0/2) plays the most snaps but it's Mecole Hardman (3-19-0/3) the team would most like to get involved. He sucks though. There will be splash days here and there, but you can't count on him with any consistency. Byron Pringle (1-6-0/2) is barely playing.
For the Browns it all revolves around Nick Chubb (15-83-2, 2-18-0/2) as it should. He is still splitting snaps nearly 50-50 with Hunt who is the 3rd down and 2-minute guy, but Chubb is the go-to when he's on the field. He's the best pure runner in the entire league. The guy is just so good at finding a crease and plowing ahead for positive yards. He's a better Dalvin Cook for this team and since Cleveland will be winning a lot this year I expect high touch counts and lots of TD's. So long as he stays healthy he'll be a top 5 or 6 back.
Chubb is definitely the lead back over Kareem Hunt (6-33-1, 3-28-0/3) although Hunt still has ppr value and is an instant RB1 if Chubb gets hurt. You have to have Hunt if you have Chubb.
Baker Mayfield (21-28 for 321 yards, 0 TD/1 INT) is a really good QB. He doesn't throw many TD's these days, but he has really become a very smart, very efficient QB. He'll have his day in fantasy at some point, he's too good not to, but for now we have to settle for just ok.
Jarvis Landry (5-71-0/5, 2-13-1) is the top guy while OBJ is out, but don't expect that to last. He's a decent WR2-2.5 play most of the time.
Donovan Peoples-Jones (1-4-0/1) was on the field a ton but didn't seem to be part of the game plan. I'm interested in him next year after OBJ and/or Landry are gone.
The most shocking development of this game for fantasy was the Browns heavy use of rookie Anthony Schwartz (3-69-0/5, 1-17-0). Schwartz played better than I would have expected, you can see the speed in an instant, but his hands are so shaky. He nearly dropped the one long ball he got to pad his totals here. I don't think he's a real WR at this point, but maybe he develops with time? Once OBJ is back his usage is going to drop. We'll have to see how he comes along next year when one or both of the two LSU receivers are gone.
Austin Hooper (3-23-0/3) and David Njoku (3-76-0/5) split time here. Hooper was in the game early and got all 3 of his catches on the first drive. Njoku was the primary TE look after that and I have to say he made a couple of really nice catches here. The athleticism has always been apparent but he was really catching the ball cleanly. You can't really count on either one while they are splitting though.
--IDP Notes
Myles Garrett (4 tackles, 1 sack) is pretty good. He blew past Orlando Brown a couple times.
Chris Jones (3 tackles, 2 sacks) is also very good. He wrecked everyone. The only player that really gave Jones fits was Cleveland RT Jedrick Wills who left the game in the 2nd quarter with an ankle injury. He's day to day and should be able to come back relatively soon. The Browns offensive line will be fine without him though. They are the league's best group to me.
Takk McKinley (2 tackles, 1 tfl) was added to the Cleveland roster this spring and he rotated in behind Garrett and Clowney. He's decent as a situational pass rusher, but at this point in his career it seems the best days are behind him. I didn't see any of the old spark from his Atlanta days.
I don't mean to pick on Denzel Ward (6 tackles, 1 pd) because he's a very good corner, but he got taken to school by Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce here. That's no crime and he really battled well against them. Rookie corner Greg Newsome started opposite him and Newsome looks like a lockdown CB already. He mostly had the lesser KC receivers to cover, but he smothered everything that came his way. These two are going to form a really nice duo so don't be shocked when teams not named Kansas City struggle to pass on these guys. This secondary will give up some yards because teams will be throwing heavy while losing but it shouldn't be efficient throwing. I really like this defense as a whole. They are a top 10 or so group and really only gave up 26 points to KC including the long Tyreek TD. It's hard to slow KC down but Cleveland did it as well as anybody. Watch for this defense to be a sneaky good option in the coming weeks.
Another rookie Nick Bolton (7 tackles, 1 tfl) had a quietly good game for a rookie LB. He's not the greatest athlete ever but he slotted right into the defense as a solid run defender. He looks like just another role player, but that's all KC needs mostly. He won't change the defense or anything, but he makes them a touch tougher to run on (you can still run on KC though). I wouldn't use him for fantasy yet. He'll likely finish with decent tackle numbers for the year but you can do better on a per game basis.
On the other side L'Jarius Sneed (7 tackles) is possibly KC's best corner and a very underrated player. He's going to give up some yards underneath because people have to throw against KC, but it's hard for most people to separate from him.
The Chiefs traded for Mike Hughes (2 tackles, 1 pd, 1 INT) this year to help bolster their secondary and he sealed the win by intercepting Mayfield, but he struggled in coverage at times even trying to cover rookie Anthony Schwartz. He's a decent player to help fill out the roster, but he isn't suddenly making this a shutdown secondary.
--Snap Counts of Interest
48 = Demarcus Robinson
45 = Mecole Hardman
11 = Byron Pringle
47 = Clyde Edwards-Helaire
14 = Darrel Williams
31 = Nick Chubb
28 = Kareem Hunt
51 = Jarvis Landry
47 = Donovan Peoples-Jones
31 = Anthony Schwartz
38 = Austin Hooper
35 = David Njoku
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 1: Bengals 27, Vikings 24
I felt pretty good about calling this outright upset after Sunday’s dust settled, but then I rewatched the game and realized – the Bengals were the better team, but I got lucky here.
The Bengals tried to give the game to the Vikings several times, but Minnesota refused to fully take it. The Bengals earned the victory, but if you see the Vikings as a bad team…then it’s not that impressive to get a home opener win in OT here.
And that’s my take: The Bengals are improved, but the Vikings are weak, so we can’t get too over-happy with this Cincy win.
There are reasons to rejoice for Cincy fans…and reasons to panic. We’ll get into the specific reasons on why, next.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The reason the Bengals won this game? Their defense. Imagine that…the Bengals have a defense now.
I saw much potential in the Bengals free agency moves on defense this offseason and then I saw flashes of the turn of this defense in the preseason – and they continued to follow through Week 1.
The Bengals D held Dalvin Cook (20-6101, 6-43-0/7) in check while frustrating Kirk Cousins (36-49 for 351 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) all game…3 sacks and 8 QB hits by the Bengals defense. Cousins wound up with nice numbers overall, but I don’t know how…it looked much tougher/rougher on tape.
How good are the Bengals on defense now? Think of them as going from the bottom 10 last year to the middle 10 NFL defenses today…a #14-18 type overall defense in the NFL. Not bad. Better than the bottom of the barrel they had been.
The player I want to identify as so key on defense in this game: New CB Chidobe Awuzie (6 tackles, 2 PDs). Several times he was man-to-man on Justin Jefferson (5-71-0/9) and Awuzie won most all the battles. The Awuzie and Mike Hilton (6 tackles, 1 TFL) additions have changed this defense.
-- If you told me a year ago that the Bengals would have a plausible NFL defense in 2021, I would have predicted them to win the AFC North in 2021. But, today, I will not say that. Why?
Cincy, we have a problem… I don’t recognize this Joe Burrow (20-27 for 261 yards, 2 TDs/0 INTs) at all. It’s like aliens came down and snatched the real Burrow away and replaced him with a weaker replica. All the preseason chatter that something didn’t look right with Burrow…it’s real. It’s a real concern.
Burrow was tentative and threw flat-footed floaters all over the field. He saw the right things and made some nice touch passes, but the aggressive playmaker stepping into and firing his passes type of QB of the past is mostly gone right now. The greatest college QB we ever saw, and the guy who tore through the NFL as a rookie – he’s M.I.A. right now.
Now, we all know he had the devastating knee injury in 2020. We assume this is likely in his head…which means it can be fixed. But what I saw here…it’s definitely in his head. There were a few flashes of the old Burrow, barely…which means there’s hope. But I would be afraid that if Burrow can’t get it together -- he is going from ‘A’ to ‘B-C’ QB, and the fact that the Bengals did the single stupidest thing ever by passing on an O-Linemen at #5 overall in the NFL Draft to take a wide receiver isn’t going to help Burrow get over his tentativeness – as he was sacked 5 times and took on 7 QB hits this game. Most of that was an awful O-Line. Some of that was timid Burrow.
Burrow may snap out of it, but this problem has been rumored since June-July…and it’s here, it’s still here in September. For Fantasy…there are too many other good QBs to work with. If you have Burrow as your #2 QB, you can wait another game or two to see if he shakes it off…but be ready to cut and run and find another plan B. I’m going to be keeping tabs on this because it is a huge shift for FF if Burrow has the yips.
-- If Burrow’s output is dropping, then who suffers among the WRs?
Tee Higgins (4-58-1/5) is CLEARLY Burrow’s go to, but as Burrow looked shaky…it rendered Higgins as ‘meh’, but fortunately got a TD (on one of Burrow’s best plays/old Burrow-like throws of the game).
Ja’Marr Chase (5-101-1/7) sprinted deep past coverage and Burrow floated one on the money to him for a 50-yard TD. Outside of that it was a normal/good performance by a WR from Chase, which is actually great news for him because he was butchering so much activity in the preseason, but he was solid in his debut here. Not off-the-charts or anything…just ‘good’.
Tyler Boyd (3-32-0/4) was the odd man out. Why? Just a hunch…Burrow is losing/has lost (temporarily?) his heart/stomach for throwing bullets into tight windows…and Boyd works more in-between the cracks of coverage over the middle. If Week 2 is a low target Boyd-Burrow dud…then we panic on Boyd.
-- Let me put a WR/performance into context…
K.J. Osborn (7-76-0/9) looked terrific. I’m so pleased, I thought he had NFL starter chops…and he does. It’s clear now. He won’t start for MIN (on purpose) because they are a 2 WR/2 TE team too much, but the more they are forced into 3 WRs sets, the more Osborn could be really nice…but no more than a WR3 with Thielen-Jefferson in the way.
Two comparisons for context:
1) K.J. Osborn worked better than Ja’Marr Chase here.
2) I couldn’t really tell the difference between Jefferson and Osborn on the field…maybe Osborn looked a touch better.
Osborn won’t get the run that Thielen and Jefferson do, but if someone gets hurt…or if MIN is constantly down and throwing…KJO might have some WR3/flex appeals during the bye weeks.
-- Tyler Conklin (4-41-0/4) looked solid but unspectacular here. The rise of Osborn takes cheap food/targets out of the mouth of Conklin. Conklin will be a TE2 looking for a TD to make TE1 weeks, like most TEs.
-- MIN LB Nick Vigil (10 tackles, 1 sack, 2 TFLs) had a nice game against his former team. Because the Vikings are so bad on defense, and Vigil is starting…he should be IDP viable/consistent this year. Anthony Barr was out, so we don’t know his true role yet.
-- Bengals rookie Evan McPherson (2/2 FGs, 3/3 XPs) showed his value right away – nailing a crucial 53-yard FG in game, what looked like a game winner at the time. But then hitting the real game winner in OT.
McPherson is a PK1 with top 5 PK hopes. He’s really, really good.
Snap Counts of Interest:
62 = Ja’Marr
51 = Higgins
51 = Boyd
08 = A Tate
78 = Thielen
76 = Jefferson
67 = Osborn
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 1: Steelers 23, Bills 16
At the end of the day, all I can say is – this was a defensive slog. Plain and simple.
I thought the Steelers would be down on defense this year with them turning over two starting CBs and Bud Dupree, but they didn’t miss a beat…and might be better than last year’s very good defense (but the schedule is still a problem, as we’ll get into). I thought Josh Allen would overcome the 2021 Steelers D with ease…and that was not true either. I expected the Steelers offense to struggle with the Buffalo defense, and they did…that was part of this slog of a game, but the Bills offense was also flustered and it led to this low scoring affair – and one TD/score for PIT came off a blocked punt. It was an offensive dud for both sides, really.
The Bills held the Steelers to only 252 total yards and just 33% 3rd-down conversions and Ben barely got over 50%+ completions -- holding the Steelers down like that should’ve produced a Bills win…but Buffalo constantly shot themselves in the foot with bad penalties (lot’s of holding…due to the PIT pass rush), some dropped passes, some poor play calls on 4th-down (Buffalo went 1 for 3 in 4th-down conversions here…last year they converted 80% of their 4th-downs).
The Bills were the better team overall, but not by a wide margin…and this just got away from them. The Bills looked like a good team, but not a Super Bowl team.
The Steelers look like a wild card team no one wants to play because they have a defense to go with savvy Ben to cause trouble, but they are so sloppy on offense at times…it can’t be a consistent winning team/Super Bowl threat. But this Steelers team is better than I thought because the defense is much better than I thought.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- My top priority here was to make sure we didn’t have any Josh Allen (31-51 for 270 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 9-44-0) problems here, and I’m pleased to say this wasn’t a Josh Allen problem loss.
However, I will say Allen didn’t look as sharp as his best runs last season. The Steelers played to contain Allen/the long passing game and just rushed 3-4 guys…and it worked. Allen was reduced to dinking and dunking a bunch. I think the issue was more – this is a really good Steelers defense again. I projected it wrong.
The Steelers had a great plan and has nice defensive talent (that Joe Schobert trade was brilliant), and they just executed better than Buffalo. There were a few near miss moments that could’ve seen Buffalo jump out bigger and change the course of this game, but the Bills just didn’t hit the big plays available and flopped on several 3rd & 4th-downs. Eventually, they ran out of time. Allen was solid but not his best…but not a real worry either.
Allen has at MIA then vs. WSH…this might be an underwhelming start for Allen to FF 2021. If you get past Week 3 with him, then it’s much smoother sailing ahead.
-- My other priority in this tape study was to see how Najee Harris (16-45-0, 1-4-0/3) looked. From the live watch, I thought he looked pretty bad. A lot of low yardage runs, too many caught in the backfield moments, and he looked like a giraffe on roller skates on two of his 3 targets. We were supposed to see smooth passing game weapon Najee, but he looks incredibly unsmooth in the passing game so far…going back to the preseason.
The one thing Najee started to show here is – he’s a good enough straight-ahead runner. Najee trying to kick interior runs outside is death. Najee going out for passes has looked foolish. But Najee getting a handoff straight up the middle looks really good. This is the first pro work where I saw Najee running the interior with confidence/authority. It took him about a half to get his sea legs, and then he started to make a bit of a difference pounding the ball on-and-off.
Hosting LV and CIN the next two weeks could get him a breakout performance (stat tally wise). He just has to stay straight and not try to do things involving sharp agility, because he has little/none.
-- Zack Moss (DNP) was a healthy scratch, further confirming this backfield is all Devin Singletary’s (11-72-0, 3-8-0/5) now. But the Bills love to pass and only run occasionally to keep defenses honest. Allen took several purposeful runs and usually does. Unfortunately for Singletary, and his FF owners, this type of game/stat line is about as good as it gets for the Bills lead back.
-- The Steelers receivers…
Diontae Johnson ((5-36-1/10) gave you all his classic hits here. In this game, you got:
*Mishandles easy passes and makes you wonder if he’s got that hands issue again.
*Then makes a ‘wow’ catch and brings you back to him.
*Got hit on a crossing route and laid on the field for a bit, writhing in pain until he limped off, and you’re thinking he’s a puss…but then a series later he’s back out there and you thank the Lord your God for it.
*Looks sometimes shaky all game, but then leads the team in targets and catches, and lands a TD.
Chase Claypool (3-45-0/5, 1-25-0) is so clearly the best WR on the team…one of, if not thee most talented WR in the league – and yet they still treat him like a side salad and not the featured entrée. But I have a funny feeling Ben is going to keep shifting Claypool, and it will come out of Diontae’s account…and make us turn on Diontae for FF. Just a hunch.
Claypool is such a majestic stallion of a WR…he’s going to be a star; I just don’t know when he crosses into that threshold. But I know it’s going to happen. He’s way too good to be a side piece.
Let me make a pitch here: Claypool was hot early 2020, right out of the gates, but then was benched by Tomlin 2nd-half (to avoid a rookie wall for some stupid reason) and he FF-fizzled to the finish. He was a mid-round redraft WR valuation this year…people had hope but weren’t craving it in the summer of 2021…they didn’t have to pay too heavy a price for it in redraft. Now, he has an opening week ‘meh’ FF result…mostly due to Buffalo’s defense, but somewhat that Diontae is still the #1 look for Ben.
Claypool is flying a little under the radar. He is ‘gettable’ in most cases – in Dynasty or redraft. You should try and land him before people get excited again (for those who don’t already own him). There are a lot of cute WRs of the moment…Mike Williams, Antonio Brown, etc. There are all the hype guys like Lamb-Jeudy, Godwin, DJ Moore – that aren’t near as talented but have better ‘pub’/standing in the FF community. All I know is – there will be a day when Chase Claypool is discussed as the single best WR in FF. He’s the better Julio Jones. He’s built like a god among men and is a really good WR…still learning his craft. His leaping catch in this game…and his simple 25-yard jet sweep was just a glimpse at his greatness.
Someday soon, Ben or Tomlin are going to shift away from heavy Diontae and move it onto Claypool as the nuclear bomb weapon that leads the way – you can acquire that dirty bomb for a fraction of what it will cost soon…and it will be off the market. There’s a window right here, right now…but I can’t promise you the bomb goes off (in a good way) next week or Week 4-5…it’s going to be good until it goes great then nuclear.
There may be no better ‘buy low’ right now in all formats. He will change your Dynasty WR group for the next 5-7 years. And for the price today…it’s amazing value to not overpay for but pay going rates or possibly less. Flip something hot of the moment in a deal to secure the future.
Only Claypool’s off-field immaturity, a la JuJu, can hold him back from going to ‘great’/elite.
Eventually, Pat Freiermuth (1-24-0/1) is going to be a TE1 (if Ben holds up/hangs around) – whether it shows signs 2nd-half of 2021, or it’s in 2022. He’s moving well and just seems like he knows what he’s doing. I thought he would be an average/good NFL TE…but he is showing little mini signs of being more. It’s important he has a decent QB, not Dwayne Haskins, to ascend with…like it is for all TEs.
-- Chase Claypool is a future star for sure, but the Steelers have another player that might be a naturally gifted future star on the other side of the ball – OLB/DE Alex Highsmith (5 tackles, 1 QB hit). Highsmith was so quick off the snap; he was drawing holding calls all over…and was held many other times that was not called. Who needs Bud Dupree?
I think Highsmith might have a chance at 10+ sacks this season.
-- The Steelers defense is much better than I thought, as I previously stated. However, I still hate this schedule…
Week 2 = facing the hard to sack, solid Derek Carr
Week 3 = facing the savvy Joe Burrow
Week 4 = facing Aaron Rodgers at GB
Week 5 = facing a top O-Line with Teddy/DEN
Week 6 = facing Russell Wilson
Week 7 = BYE
Week 8 = facing a top O-Line with Cleveland.
Not a great opportunity/matchup the next 7 weeks.
-- Buffalo’s defense is really good AND has a decent schedule ahead…
Week 2 = vs. Tua
Week 3 = vs. Heinicke
Week 4 = vs. Tyrod
Week 5 = at Mahomes…no good.
Week 6 = at Tennessee might be fine
Week 7 = BYE
*this post BYE first 6 weeks is awesome matchups for them too*
Week – vs. Tua
Week 9 = at JAX/Trevor
Week 10 = at NYJ/Z Wilson
Week 11 = vs. Wentz
Week 12 = at J Winston
Week 13 = vs. Mac Jones
Aside from Weeks 5 and 7, and 14 (Tampa) – you can run this defense every week otherwise.
Snap Counts of Interest:
64 = Singletary
10 = Breida
53 = JuJu
44 = Diontae
39 = Claypool
58 = Najee (100%)…no worries of a rookie wall here, I guess…
- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 1: Raiders 33, Ravens 27 (By Ross Jacobs)
What an absolutely crazy game. If you haven't already seen it, do yourself a favor and go watch this one. The NFL got the perfect opening weekend Monday night game here, a crazy thriller.
Everything started off innocuous enough. The Ravens seemed like they were going to go about business as usual. They took a lead and built it up to 14-0 as the Raiders attempted pass after pass to Darren Waller to no avail. It looked like a blowout was coming. But then Carr finally managed to connect on a few passes (to Waller) and Josh Jacobs scored from the 1 to make it 14-7. The Raiders got the ball back and snuck in a FG right before the half to cut the Raven lead to 4.
Baltimore got the ball after half and quickly kicked a FG of their own to make it 17-10. The two teams traded defensive blows for a while but then a Lamar Jackson fumble set up the Raiders with a short field which they capitalized on to tie the game at 17. Baltimore would answer that score with an immediate TD drive of their own and at that point it felt like there was nothing Vegas could do to catch up. Baltimore had taken their best shot and come right back. But Carr and the Raiders didn't back down and landed a punch of their own with another TD drive capped off by a Waller TD to tie it back up.
Baltimore responded with a FG to take the lead and with less than a minute left it looked like a long shot for Vegas to recover yet again. But Bryan Edwards finally came through with a couple of huge catches over the middle and Daniel Carlson booted a 55 yard FG to send it to OT.
The Raiders got the ball to start overtime and after Edwards caught a long pass it appeared that he had scored a TD to win the game, but the booth ruled him down at the 1 and the game was back on. Carr was stuffed on a QB sneak and then a false start backed the Raiders up to 2nd and goal. Two plays later Carr was under pressure and threw a bullet to Willie Snead that ricocheted off his hands and was intercepted by the Ravens, but Lamar promptly fumbled the ball back to the Raiders who then looked like they were ready to kick an early FG to win the game. Unfortunately they took a delay of game penalty and so lined up for another play. Carr found Zay Jones running wide open to the endzone and the Raiders took the win.
The Ravens looked like the superior team overall, and they had multiple chances to slam the door on the Raiders, but they kept mucking around with Murray, letting Waller catch pass after pass, and the two fumbles ultimately did them in. It was really just shitty coaching that lost them this game, nothing that the players did wrong. Credit to the Raiders though, they were never afraid and both units kept firing despite taking body blows from the Ravens over and over. They played tough, relentless football and never quit. It was quite the gutsy performance. Is there hope for the Raiders defense? Maybe. But Baltimore did score 27 points on them and they weren't even playing that well. Ultimately I expect the Raiders overall lack of talent will hold them back. I don't see a team with enough firepower to really challenge the Chiefs or Chargers in this division, but they are definitely not a cakewalk and should be a tough out all year.
The Ravens I expect to bounce back. I'm not sure what the coaches were doing here, but this staff usually doesn't pull stupid moves like this. They should bounce back to normal and compete with the Browns and Steelers for the North title. Not sure they are quite good enough but they'll be in the playoff mix.
There's a lot to talk about here, so buckle up.
--Fantasy Notes
We have to start with the player RC and I were pumping up all week long, Ty'Son Williams (9-65-1, 3-29-0/4). If you started Ty'Son you were probably pretty happy about the result. He finished with 18.4 points in ppr which is more than a solid day. However, it could/should have been so much better. It was incredibly frustrating to watch as Ty'Son was clearly the best RB the Ravens had available, and yet they really didn't give him the ball the way I thought they would.
Nine carries isn't bad but he should have been in the double digits easily and possibly pushing towards 20 carries. Instead, the Ravens chose to shy away from their normal ground game and try to let Lamar throw more while simultaneously wasting carries on Latavius Murray (10-28-1) and Trenton Cannon (2-5-0). Anyone could see that both those guys were far inferior options to Ty'Son and yet the Ravens staff seemed to disagree. Even though Ty'Son was in for 50% of the snaps, he was out-carried by Murray (he probably wouldn't have been but he got shaken up at one point and had to leave the game for a series or two). Either way it was not the vote of confidence I was looking for and I am a bit more worried about his role moving forward even though the events that transpired should have been a huge wake up call for this staff. We're going to have to monitor this situation closely.
Ty'Son should still be the theoretical lead back because Murray has nothing left, but I don't think we can just assume that especially after the nonsensical decisions this coaching staff made in this game. Let's see what happens against a nice matchup with the Chiefs. This could be the spot where Ty'Son really puts a stamp on this backfield and claims it for his own, or it could be where he falls back into a rotation with guys that shouldn't even be on an active roster. Make no mistake, Ty'Son is by far the best back on the roster and the Ravens should be giving him 15+ carries a game. That is still on the table and I think it's possible we see Ty'Son really take off from here.
In case you haven't gotten the point yet, Latavius Murray is a bum at this point with no juice left in him and should not be rostered.
Lamar Jackson (19-30 for 235 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 12-86-0) had a solid enough day for fantasy, but just happened to not score more than 1 TD and so it felt a little muted. Don't worry about him. He played as well as I've ever seen him despite being under quite a bit of pressure from the Raiders front seven.
You know who is a sneaky good ppr fantasy play whenever he's healthy? Marquise Brown (6-69-1/6, 1-5-0). In his last 7 games he's scored 7 TD's to go along with 26 catches for 407 yards, 15.5 ppg in ppr. That's top back end WR1 material. He doesn't wow with huge yardage totals, but he doesn't need to when he's piling up TD's.
Mark Andrews (3-20-0/5) had a quiet day, but he's still a TE1 all day. Sometimes you just have days like this.
In other news, Sammy Watkins (4-96-0/8) reappeared and caught one pass per million dollars he'll make this year. This guy must have taken sales lessons from Sam Bradford because he has duped more teams into wasting money on him than nearly anyone else I can think of. He looked shockingly slow to me here, like barely running away from KJ Wright slow. Most of his yards came on one chunk play where he got matched up with a LB because Vegas wasn't worried about him at all. I'm honestly not sure how he even got 8 targets or played 56 snaps. It did not feel like that much watching the game. Seems like the team is going to force him the ball though, so I guess you can use him if you're desperate. I'm not. Counting on Watkins is a recipe for disaster. You've been warned.
Devin Duvernay (1-6-0/2) was running as the #3 receiver here, but he was barely involved and will be back on the bench as soon as the other Baltimore receivers are healthy. Hate that he's buried like this but that's the reality.
Let's talk about the Raiders for a moment, because I'm sure everyone wants to hear about how Darren Waller (10-105-1/19) is going to get 300 targets this year. You can't make this crap up. The man got 19 targets last and the worst part is the Ravens coaching staff acted like they had no idea who he was even though every other person on the planet knew the Raiders were going to throw to him literally every play. It was one of the most baffling coaching decisions I've ever seen.
Early in the game the Ravens had their all-world corner Marlon Humphrey (9 tackles, 1 pd) on him as well as a safety or two. Carr was literally throwing the ball into triple coverage trying to force it to Waller and of course it wasn't working. That's how the Ravens took the lead. Then, inexplicably, they moved Humphrey over to guard Hunter %*&#!@ Renfrow (6-70-0/9) and in the most obvious turn of events ever, Waller started beating the crap out of them. Like the rest of the world I'm completely baffled as to why this decision was made and who in the world thought it was a good idea. That move alone cost the Ravens this game. Carr couldn't connect on anything until Waller was suddenly set free to do as he pleased. Regardless, don't think that other coaching staffs will be this stupid every week. Waller is still going to get a ton of targets, but it shouldn't be this out of control every week. Of course, in his last 6 games now he has 74 targets (12.3 per game) for 53 catches for 759 yards and 5 TD's (26.5 ppg). Maybe I'm the fool for betting against this trend...
With Waller being the first, second, and third reads for Derek Carr (34-56 for 435 yards, 2 TD/1 INT) that left scraps for the WR's. Hunter Renfrow looks like the most important receiver of the bunch and he led the way with 6 catches for 70 yards despite playing fewer snaps than Edwards and Ruggs. Apparently he's the most amazing thing ever because the Ravens deemed him more worthy of Humphrey's attention than Waller. I digress. Renfrow is the latest iteration of your classic slot receiver (Amendola, Edelman, Beasley, etc). Beasley is probably the closest comparison. So long as he's getting targeted like this he's usable in a pinch as a WR3 in ppr.
2nd year receiver Bryan Edwards (4-81-0/5), who I have been touting all off-season, would finish with the 2nd most yards but was tied for 3rd in targets and didn't get his first catch until literally the last minute of the game before OT. He was the guy that made two clutch catches to get the tying FG and very nearly won the Raiders the game outright on their first drive in OT. He was called down just inches short though and lost the score. What to do with him? If you have him as a lottery ticket I would hold for the moment. You saw flashes of what he can do here. He just needs more targets. Waller shouldn't soak up half the attempts every week, so you'd think Edwards is bound to get a chance moving forward especially considering his heroics here. If you want to drop him though I can't say I'd blame you. There's an upside hiding here that's probably not available on your waiver wire though. Note that he played 70% of the snaps here. The team wants to get him involved. They just have to do it.
Regardless of what happens with Edwards, he's still 10x the receiver that Henry Ruggs (2-46-0/5) is. Ruggs got nearly all his yards on one catch where he was left wide open. He's outright terrible and shouldn't be anywhere near your leagues including in dynasty.
Josh Jacobs (10-34-2, 1-6-0/2) was the lead RB and had a good fantasy day with the 2 TD's but he looks sluggish and his offensive line isn't doing him any favors. He's also running in a near 50-50 split with Kenyan Drake (6-11-0, 5-59-0/5) who is getting more passing game work. Right now I'd much rather have Drake. He's the 3rd down and 2-minute back but is also mixing in on early downs at times. He's getting involved and with Carr throwing so many dump passes it's a useful role. He doesn't have to worry about the weak line because so much of his work is coming out in space in the passing game with teams completely focused on stopping Waller. He'll be more usable than Jacobs in most weeks where Jacobs isn't getting a TD.
--IDP Notes
The Raiders defense still isn't very good, but they were not afraid of the Ravens here and played with great energy and aggressiveness all game. Credit to them for not rolling over. I still don't think they are very good but they might be a tougher out than I originally expected.
Maxx Crosby (6 tackles, 2 sacks) was the standout performer here. He was a handful all night and just kept coming for Lamar. Not the greatest pass rusher ever, but he's tough, gives great effort, and is as relentless as they come.Three Raiders (Denzel Perryman, Johnathan Abram, and Corey Littleton) all racked up 10 tackles apiece but honestly none of them really stood out. There tend to be higher tackle numbers against the Ravens because they run so much. I doubt it continues at that pace for any of them.
A couple of rookie defenders for Vegas made their debut here. Safety Trevon Moehrig (5 tackles) is the starting free safety and played every snap. He looked ok but definitely not the best safety in his class. Don't see any special traits there. CB Nate Hobbs (2 tackles) played 50% of the snaps here and his role is likely to grow as the season goes on. He looks like a veteran out there, not a great one but just he moves around confidently and seems to know what he's doing. Solid addition to the defense.
I already covered Marlon Humphrey and how phenomenal he is, but I have to give credit to Patrick Queen (9 tackles, 1 sack) as well. He was a guy RC and I weren't high on in the 2020 draft, but he's really developed into a good all-around LB. The guy can cover, play the run, blitz, he has great range...he's a good player. He still hesitates a little too much at times, but that's honestly nitpicking. He's a fine player and a good start in IDP leagues.
I continue to see absolutely nothing from Jayson Oweh (2 tackles, 1 sack). His sack was a coverage sack plain and simple, nothing that Oweh did. This guy is supposed to be an athletic marvel but it just is not showing up right now. We should be seeing this guy exploding off the ball and giving blockers fits but he doesn't even show flashes of it, just plain old rush the passer like any other guy. Not a fan at all.
--Snap Counts of Interest
57 = Bryan Edwards
56 = Henry Ruggs
47 = Hunter Renfrow
45 = Josh Jacobs
41 = Kenyan Drake
56 = Sammy Watkins
47 = Marquise Brown
39 = Devin Duvernay
35 = Ty'Son Williams
21 = Latavius Murray
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 1: Eagles 32, Falcons 6
Very odd game… You would have sworn, watching the first 27 minutes, that the Falcons were just going to quietly move the ball efficiently on the Eagles, and maneuver their way to a close win in the end. It was 7-6 Philly approaching halftime. But with about 2 minutes left in the 1st-half to the finish line…the Eagles dominated the Falcons…embarrassed them.
The answer to whether Arthur Smith is an offensive genius is = he got thoroughly out-coached and out-schemed by Nick Sirianni, which I never would have dreamed…but here we are. The interesting alignments and play calling…all by Sirianni, not Smith.
Smith ran the most bland, boring offense I’ve seen so far in my Week 1 re-watches of games. And it doesn’t help that Matt Ryan is falling down a cliff in his career…and that they have no O-Line. I thought the Falcons might be a sneaky flirt with .500 team. I was wrong, this is one of the worst teams in the NFL.
I thought the Eagles would struggle under Sirianni, but he has Jalen Hurts…and properly designed an offense for him…and now I’m wondering whether they might not win the NFC East. I’m still suspicious of Sirianni, but I’ll move to neutral instead of mocking after this impressive Week 1 showing.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Let’s start with Jalen Hurts (27-35 for 264 yards, 3 TD/0 INTs, 7-62-0)…
*Hurts is the much better Lamar Jackson…the LJax the media thinks Jackson is.
*Hurts is obviously better than Tua from the 2020 Draft class, as I scouted/graded (the only one to do so) in January 2020 pre-Draft. Now, I’m starting to wonder if Hurts is going to wind up better than Burrow…and that’s not a knock on Burrow. That’s how good Hurts is.
*Hurts is starting to flash that he might be a top 3-5 FF QB in 4pts per pass TD…and a possible #1 in that format.
*Hurts is the best spread QB in the NFL…he can pass the ball effectively, but he runs it like none other…a power RB build in a QB body.
All-in on Hurts.
People still don’t fully appreciate it…they will sell it short fearing a ‘falls back to earth’ because the mainstream won’t endorse Hurts like they do half the other QBs in the league. You have a limited time to make a move for Hurts if you want in…and now more expensive than a week ago.
-- Oh…and speaking of QBs…Matt Ryan (21-35 for 164 yards, 0 TDs/0 INTs) is about done as an effective starter in this league. The lack of an O-Line is only accelerating the problem. Ryan is going to be nothing this year…he can hardly do garbage time anymore. Ryan is becoming a lesser Andy Dalton 2021…
Calvin Ridley (5-51-0/8) is going to suffer because of it.
-- So, how about that Kyle Pitts (4-31-0/8) exciting debut!? Yawwwnnn
With months to prepare, and a lot of talk about all the exciting things one could do with a talent like Pitts…Arthur Smith did nothing interesting with him at all. Pitts basically ran the same three routes over and over and over again. Boring, old fashioned routes like what a Cole Kmet or James O’Shaughnessy might run.
They used up a #4 overall pick…and talked all summer about all the magical things they could do with Pitts, and then ran the most basic concepts with him Week 1. Pitts had more interesting work in his one play in the preseason…a play where he took a -1 yard pass and turned it into 20+ yards. Remember how cool that play was in design and simplicity? Yeah, well…it was so good the Falcons didn’t run it this game.
But hey, who am I to question the offensive genius (Art Smith) who has yet to see his team score a TD in his NFL head coaching career.
Pitts is going to be fine. He can work well being used as a basic TE. He’ll grow, they’ll grow with him…but it’s going to be a bumpy, more disappointing ride the next few weeks. Be prepared to be disappointed.
I will add…
1) Hayden Hurst had as many catches as Pitts.
2) The first series, the Falcons drove right down the field and into the red zone…and Pitts never was in the game for the first red zone. Hurst was subbed into the red zone offense and Pitts never went in…and SURPRISE the Falcons couldn’t get it into the end zone. Who would want Pitts to be in for end zone work? How silly…
3) Pitts had a nice catch early on, deemed out of bounds. He had another nice catch and run for 10+ called back for an offensive penalty. Pitts was misused mightily in this game…and almost had a 6 catch on 9 targets debut despite it. There is hope.
…but, no, Arthur Smith is not an offensive genius…yet.
-- Arthur Smith saved all his genius for Cordarrelle Patterson (7-54-0, 2-13-0/2). The player lining up all over and having a game plan was CPatt. Not Pitts.
Things you must consider:
1) Mike Davis (15-49-0, 3-23-0/6) looks shot. He’s almost like Atlanta’s Latavius Murray 2021.
2) Cordarrelle Patterson is a 220+ RB running like his life depended upon it. And lining up all over…and was seeing red zone work and goal line type work (when ATL did get close).
3) Yards per carry in this game:
7.7 Patterson
3.3 Mk Davis
4) It may not be long before Patterson is the lead back here…either via Davis injury or just a hostile takeover.
5) You want in NOW on that gamble, because it’s going to get more expensive as we go.
-- Kenneth Gainwell (9-37-1, 2-6-0/2) was working like a true 3rd-down/passing game back. He got a lot more work than I thought he would for Week 1. He didn’t look great, but he wasn’t bad. The Eagles have a ton of faith in that guy. I didn’t think they would so soon. He is the handcuff for sure, obviously.
-- Eagles receivers report…
DeVonta Smith (6-71-1/8) hit the ground running. Hurts was so smooth in this game, and DeVonta is his guy. I worried there might be passing game dysfunction here with the new coaching staff, but it was humming (and ATL is nice a team to throw on)…and DeVonta is already their #1.
Jalen Reagor (6-49-1/6) had a decent game, but Quez Watkins (3-32-0/3) still looks better to me…but Reagor is more prominent in the offense.
Dallas Goedert (4-42-1/5) was in the shadow of Zach Ertz (2-34-0/2) for a bit, but then started roiling…and reminded me that despite the bad situation in Philly (with Ertz there) – Goedert is still a damn good/talented TE.
-- Credit to the Eagles-DST here. They were pushed around the first 2-3 series and then they just slammed the door on Atlanta…9 QB hits, 3 sacks, 6 TFLs. The Falcons were under 100 total yards of offense in the 2nd-half.
Javon Hargrave had 6 tackles, 2.0 sacks, 3 QB hits to lead the assault.
We’ll see if they are good against SF Week 2…but we got issues Week 3 at DAL, Week 4 with KC. But if they look nice vs. SF…it’s something to look at later if needed when they face NYG-NYJ-bye-WSH-NYG-WSH Weeks 12-17.
Snap Counts of Interest:
49 = Pitts
43 = H Hurst
54 = MK Davis
24 = CPatt
62 = DeVonta
50 = Reagor
34 = Watkins
52 = Goedert
41 = Ertz
47 = Sanders
25 = Gainwell
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 1: Chargers 20, Washington 16
Many other Week 1 games had big name stars going or fancy rookie QBs and/or were high scoring affairs with lots of visual appeal. With all the other attention getting things happening, this lower scoring game quietly flew under the radar -- but it shouldn’t have. It was a heavyweight battle involving two of the better teams in football – one of the 3-5 best offenses versus the #1-2 defense in the NFL.
With the lower score/scoring, you’d think the defenses won out…that it was a slog of a defensive affair. And it was a good-to-great defensive showing on both sides, but after watching this tape I would summarize it as: Washington had to play really well on defense to keep themselves in this/they are lucky the Chargers didn’t blow them out.
And I don’t want that sentence to be just a nice, forgettable description of the game in a nutshell. Washington played very well on defense, but the Chargers were so good they nearly blew them out. ‘Nearly blew them out’…in a 20-16 final?
Let me share this from the game: The Chargers had nine offensive drives in the game, they went as follows…
#1) TD drive off the bat
#2) Three and out punt
#3) punt
#4) LAC going into the red zone but a pure drop by Keenan Allen did convert an easy 3rd-down, so they settled for FG.
#5) Goal-to-go, but had to settle for FG
#6) Into the red zone…a fumble ended the drive.
#7) Into the red zone, but an overthrow INT
#8) WSH fumbled near their own goal line…set up an easy score for LAC soon after
#9) LAC embarked on a 15 play, 72-yard drive to get down to the goal-to-go but took knees to end it for the win.
The Chargers scored 20 points, but it took luck and good+ Washington defense for this not to be a game where the Chargers scored 30+ easy. had the Chargers posted 30-35+ on Washington it would have been monumental...and should've been worshipped. But it didn't happen...but it almost did, and we should take serious note of that.
The Chargers had the perfect game plan to neutralize the Washington pass rush most of the game…Justin Herbert is too good for good defenses to fiddle with. Herbert played a smart game against a good-to-great defense. It was as good a performance as there was all week from a QB, but no one in the media is going to recognize it. They’ll be off celebrating Jameis Winston and Matt Stafford.
Credit Washington for hanging in…they really should have won this game. With a 16-13 lead in the 4th-quarter, Antonio Gibson fumbled near their own goal line and turned it over for an easy LAC TD soon after, and a 20-16 lead they wouldn’t relinquish.
A quality game on both sides…but the Chargers with more quality, on both sides. Washington a yeoman’s effort after losing Ryan Fitzpatrick so soon in the game. These are both playoff level teams, with the Chargers going to be the future of the NFL with their QB and head coach/staff.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- I have to start with Justin Herbert (31-47 for 337 yards, 1 TD/1 INT).
No QB had a tougher opening week game…west-to-east coast trip/timing, new offense/coaches, taking on a/the top defensive team in the NFL – and he got the team into the red zone on seven of 9 drives…amazing. And all the drive failures were mostly all flukes (easy dropped passes, weird fumble, near miss TDs) but Washington also rose up to make matters tougher. Herbert, in reality, should have had 3-4 TD passes here. Had he posted 330+ yards and 3-4 TDs against Washington…he would be hailed today, but he didn’t…he had a muted (kinda) Week 1 for FF in a game most people didn’t really pay attention to as much as other more marquee matchups. To me, this was the marquee matchup of Week 1.
So, the Justin Herbert hype train didn’t gain any steam because of all the stated factors…which means people aren’t celebrating him like they are many other QBs. If there were ‘regression’ worries on Herbert for current owners, then this game didn’t end those thoughts. It means, in some cases, Herbert is high priced…but reasonably available…even if you have to overpay for it a little.
Herbert’s talent behind this elite O-Line, and elite coaching staff (potentially) is going mean this is a top 1-2-3 NFL offense. Which means Herbert is going to be a top 1-2-3 FF QB, but his valuation in the world is more like he’s a #6-7-8 QB. It represents great value if you want to try and get it. This was the tough part of their schedule…now it’s an open road, mostly, the rest of the way.
-- Who was Herbert throwing to besides Keenan Allen (9-100-0/13)?
Mike Williams (8-82-1/12) had a day against a very good cover secondary. Williams had a drop or two in tight coverage. He also did that annoying leap/jump/crash for passes and then came up hurt a few times but played through it. One of his best games in the NFL working a more normal WR role…not just deep ball/jump ball guy. This is going to pay off, as we hoped…better than we hoped.
Jaylen Guyton (3-49-0/5) ran as the #3 WR, and he looked better than I’ve seen…like a real WR. Being a #3 on the Chargers means he might sneak into WR3/Flex discussions in deeper leagues.
Jared Cook (5-56-0/8) looks old/rickety but is the TE of note for Herbert for sure. I’m down with Cook as being a TE1 now…a fringe one. Donald Parham (0-0-0/1) saw some red zone work but was mostly a ghost.
-- The LAC RB report was not what I expected…
Obviously, Austin Ekeler (15-57-1, 0-0-0/0) started…but he didn’t even see a target in this game. For all the ‘this is a version of the Saints offense’ talk in the preseason…there was no Kamara-like work for Ekeler here. It may have just been the game plan for WSH, but this is concerning right off the bat for Ekeler owners.
Justin Jackson (1-5-0, 1-2-0/1) was the #2 back, but was barely identifiable.
The odd thing I didn’t see coming: rookie RB Larry Roundtree (8-27-0) was in the game's first series (3rd RB in the game, but in) and was running a power game…and got 8 carries. More than most rookie RBs had Week 1. He’s not great but he is big and obviously LAC trusts him. I’m not excited about him, but after watching this game back Monday -- I’m more curious about him as a handcuff than the totally dismissive person I was after Sunday. Not hot for him, just recognizing he’s got more than zero value I thought he had.
-- Ryan Fitzpatrick (3-6 for 13 yards, 0 TDs/0 INTs) is going to be out at least half the season, possibly more. Will the Football Team go get a Nick Foles or Cam Newton or other? No.
Ron Rivera loves Taylor Heinicke (11-15 for 122 yards, 1 TD/0 INT), so he won’t ruin that by bringing in more talented guys. Rivera also loves Kyle Allen if need be.
Heinicke is a capable stop gap, quintessential backup QB. Good in a pinch…not what you want for half a season with a playoff level team, but that’s exactly what’s coming.
-- How does Heinicke affect Washington weapons for FF?
Heinicke is more of a short and medium thrower, and his O-Line doesn’t give him a ton of time…so, this isn’t great for Terry McLaurin (4-62-0/4).
It’s OK for Logan Thomas (3-30-1/3)…they had a nice relationship last year in their playoff game together, and hooked up for a score here. You’d rather have Fitz or other for Logan, but it will be fine.
Antonio Gibson (20-90-0, 3-18-0/5) is the offense, and will remain so.
Dyami Brown (1-0-0/4)…you have to be kidding me…
-- IDP notes…
Cole Holcomb (11 tackles, 1 QB hit) led the way in tackles for WSH…and he looks great. He’s a legit LB1 this year, it appears.
Kenneth Murray (10 tackles) led the Chargers in tackles, as I had hoped. Two of my favorite linebacker talents in all of football are Murray and Holcomb.
Derwin James (7 tackles, 1 PD) is back, and didn’t tear his ACL! He’s a DB1 when healthy.
-- Speaking of defense, two of the best units in football were on display here.
Washington was very good, but not as radical as I hoped…but considering the opponent, this was good. Washington’s pass rush was constantly neutralized by a good/great Chargers O-Line and Herbert’s purposed quick passing. Not many teams have the O-Line and a QB with a howitzer arm like the Chargers do. Only the Chiefs…and maybe the Bills do but it didn't look like it Week 1.
The Chargers should be a top 5 FF DST, but they won’t be – the schedule is way too tough. Dak-Mahomes-Carr-Baker/run game-Lamar/run game-BYE-NE run game-PHI run game for the next 8 weeks…not fruitful for FF scoring. Too many good+ O-Lines and QBs to face. Just a bad schedule is all. Otherwise, this defense is a top 5 or so NFL unit already.
The two best teams in football may be the Chiefs and Chargers…and they’re in the same division. Crazy.
Snap Counts of Interest:
36 = A Gibson
20 = McKissic
04 = Patterson
55 = McLaurin
51 = Dyami
33 = Humphries
02 = Cam Sims
67 = Keenan
61 = Mk Williams
53 = Guyton
14 = Josh Palmer
47 = Cook
41 = Parham
20 = Stv Anderson
- By Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 1: Seahawks 28, Colts 16 (By Ross Jacobs)
This was a dull watch and I don't have any earth-shattering fantasy notes to talk about. You know what you're getting with these two teams. Lots of running plus a few Russell Wilson bombs and lots of running plus a bunch of Carson Wentz checkdowns. Routine stuff.
Indy started with the ball and calmly drove the field to take a quick 3-0 lead. The Seahawks responded with a smooth drive of their own capped off with a nice adjustment by Tyler Lockett for a TD. Indy regained the lead shortly after with another good drive to make it 10-7 Colts, but Seattle scored the next two touchdowns to grab a nice 21-10 lead. It was around this time that the Colts started faltering a little. Their offensive line was under siege and they couldn't keep a drive going. A late DK Metcalf TD would be the final dagger for Indy as they didn't have enough time to recover and fell 28-16 after scoring a garbage time TD.
These are two decent teams. Seattle is a contender as usual although I don't think they are a favorite. They'll probably be a wild card with somewhere around 11 wins or so. Indy looks a step back from last year because their defense isn't quite as good although getting Xavier Rhodes back from injury would help. I wouldn't panic if you're a Colts fan. They should finish around 9 wins or so and be a tough out for better teams. They don't look like a real Superbowl contender though.
--Fantasy Notes
It's once again a Chris Carson (16-91-0, 3-26-0/3) offense in Seattle. He's a RB1 until further notice. You wish your favorite RB got this kind of treatment. It doesn't matter that Carson fumbled the ball away here. It doesn't matter that he's just an ok, straight ahead power runner. Nothing matters except the fact that Pete loves him some Carson and nothing is going to get in the way of that. So long as he's healthy Carson should come in somewhere around 1200 yards and 10+ TD's along with 40-50 catches for another 300 yards or so.
Rashaad Penny (2-8-0) was a ghost here and clearly not a part of the game plan, but he exited the game with a calf strain and will be gone several more weeks. I think it's time we bury this hope for good. He was replaced by DeeJay Dallas (1-5-0, 1-5-0/1) who will now serve as the backup to Carson for whatever that is worth.
RC Note: I think Alex Collins is in play more for the #2 RB role, but we’ll see. Collins was inactive for this game, and Dallas wasn’t.
The Seahawks ran it early and often and it seems abundantly clear there won't be any cooking for Russell Wilson (18-23 for 254 yards, 4 TD/0 INT) if Pete Carrol can help it. Russ threw for 4 TD's but that isn't happening every week. I expect a lower volume for Wilson this year compared to the last few (provided Carson stays healthy) and that's going to hold him back just a little from being a top 5 QB. He looks like a back end QB1 to me.
With a fall in Wilson's passing volume there will be a corresponding fall in the production of Tyler Lockett (4-100-2/5) and DK Metcalf (4-60-1/5). Yes, both guys just had good days, but they aren't catching TD's every week to make up for a meager 4 catches. I don't care how efficient Russell is, if they don't get more than 5 targets apiece those numbers are going to come crashing down. The next several weeks look very juicy though. Tennessee, Minnesota, and SF all have bad secondaries. A good play might be to let these guys ride the wave and then flip them for something nicer off of a few big weeks. The rest of year schedule is a weird mix of really great matchups and really hard ones, so be prepared for the inevitable down weeks if you hold.
Rookie Dwayne Eskridge (1-6-0/1, 2-22-0) looked like a Tyler Lockett clone in his short appearance here. He took a big shot late in the game and left with a concussion. He's already been dealing with a ton of injuries and the year has barely started. Starting to worry me that's it's going to be a constant issue with him. He's at least a year away from mattering for fantasy if not more.
Newly acquired TE Gerald Everett (2-20-1/2) had a couple of nifty screen passes set up for him. It felt like he was more involved than his numbers show. The reality is he was splitting time with Will Dissly (3-37-0/3). Neither guy is more than a prayer bye week start hoping for a TD.
RC bashed on Carson Wentz (25-38 for 251 yards, 2 TD/0 INT, 4-23-0) and I get why, but after watching this game closely...Wentz looked pretty good honestly. He was driving the Colts down the field just fine early on, and it wasn't until the dam broke and he had pressure in his face literally every play that the trouble started. Even then he played well considering the circumstances. Getting left tackle Eric Fisher back healthy would be a big help. I've done my fair share of Wentz bashing in the past, including very early last year when I noted that he was playing like garbage before the injury, but the Wentz I saw here was playing quite well. He's got some sneaky upside in better matchups.
Jonathan Taylor (17-56-0, 6-60-0/7) is also a RB1 or 1.5 at worst. I don't like how often he comes out for Nyheim Hines (9-34-0, 6-48-0/8), but so long as he's getting touches like this I can live with it. Taylor had a solid day that could have been very good except he lost a TD run to a stupid penalty. His ypc was really low and that is 100% because his line was getting destroyed by Seattle. I wouldn't expect a dominant line this year, but they should be better once Fisher is back and Nelson gets closer to 100%. It's not a huge worry but something to watch especially with the news that RT Braden Smith is now dealing with a foot injury. These backup tackles aren't good. You can still start Taylor with confidence just based on volume though.
Hines is a nice cheap play in DFS or as a bye week fill-in/RB starved. He's the Giovani Bernard that RC was hoping for and he's available in a ton of leagues on waivers. Not sexy but functional.
Outside those two guys it gets messy for the Colts pass catchers. To my eyes Michael Pittman (3-29-0/4) has all the talent/ability to be a bona fide #1 receiver, but he's not getting that kind of treatment. It's like he's just another one of the guys and in fact they use him more as a blocker than anything else. If he ever gets peppered with targets it could be special.
The guy I'm most excited for though is the rookie RC and I have been following, Mike Strachan (2-26-0/2). He's still being used as the #4 receiver, but the rare times they put him in the game Wentz was looking for him specifically. I believe they are trying to bring him along slowly but know exactly what they have. He's got the chops to be a star but the time isn't right yet. Trying to predict this thing is going to be tough, but at some point Strachan is going to put up a monster game and there won't be any going back. It may not be in 2021, could be a 2022 thing, but it's going to happen at some point. Imagine the Travis Fulgham episode from last year with Wentz and the Eagles but with a 10x better receiver than Fulgham. If/when that happens we need to be ready.
Zach Pascal (4-43-2/5) got the TD's today so he's magically a priority waiver pickup for many people. Please don't. Pascal isn't a very good receiver and certainly isn't catching 2 TD's every week. He's just holding a spot until Strachan is ready to step up.
Parris Campbell (1-24-0/3) is healthy (for the moment) and looks fast enough but there's no real push to target him. He's just one more guy in a rotation.
Jack Doyle (3-21-0/4) and Mo Alie-Cox (0-0-0/2) are splitting reps at TE. Neither is usable.
--IDP Notes
Bobby Wagner (13 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 pd) led the way for Seattle of course, but 2nd year LB Jordyn Brooks (11 tackles) acquitted himself well with his performance. He looks like the new, faster, better KJ Wright.
Quandre Diggs (9 tackles) was shockingly one of the best players on the field here. He was flying all over the field hitting everything in sight, constantly around the ball. Very impressed with what I saw from him.
Darrell Taylor (2 tackles, 1 sack) had a couple of splash plays late but he wasn't a real factor here. He was just another cog in the Seattle pass rush. Rasheem Green (4 tackles, 1 sack), Kerry Hyder Jr (3 tackles), and Benson Mayowa (2 tackles, 1 sack) all rotated in along with Taylor and all four guys were causing problems for Indy. Colts RT Braden Smith was getting beaten by everyone that lined up over him and it was announced after the game that he is dealing with an injury and LT Julie'n Davenport also got whipped while filling in for Eric Fisher.
3rd year Colts safety Khari Willis (7 tackles) is projected to do big things for fantasy this year by many and he got a good number of tackles here, but he was getting absolutely mauled in coverage by Tyler Lockett. It was not good. He may be a good fantasy play, but I would not want him on my real team. Targeting him with under the radar WR's could be a sneaky DFS play.
--Snap Counts of Interest
42 = Jonathan Taylor
34 = Nyheim Hines
74 = Michael Pittman
69 = Zach Pascal
46 = Parris Campbell
18 = Mike Strachan
45 = Jack Doyle
39 = Mo Alie-Cox
42 = Chris Carson
7 = Rashaad Penny
50 = DK Metcalf
46 = Tyler Lockett
23 = Freddie Swain
12 = Dwayne Eskridge
39 = Gerald Everett
38 = Will Dissly
