This is just a sampling of our first of many 2023 NFL Draft scouting reports of the season, a QB grade for Bryce Young, presented to you 'on the house'. To get the full version of this report, subscribe to Weekly Report - Free. Our QB grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, leaked Wonderlic test results, etc. You can get updated rankings as the become available from our Total Football Advisor package.
This first report has a little longer lead-in to set the table for the 2023 scouting/reporting season -- and then it so happens this Bryce Young report warranted a longer background set up as well. Needed, I believe, to properly evaluate Bryce Young. So, you'll get your money's worth here on this longer report. This report as five sections:
- Setting The Table for 2023
- Introducing Bryce Young...
- Bryce Young, Through the Lens of Our QB Scouting Algorithm
- The Historical QB Prospects to Whom Bryce Young Most Compares Within Our System
- 2023 NFL Draft Outlook
- Setting the Table for 2023
- NFL Outlook
Setting The Table for 2023
I figured this study should be easy – copy/paste the scouting reports for Tua Tagovailoa and Mac Jones and just change the names to 'Bryce Young'! The scouting issue/dilemma/context, in recent years, is always the same with these Alabama quarterbacks…actually, it is getting worse…
How can you properly scout an Alabama quarterback prospect in the Year of our Lord 2023? Bryce Young is playing quarterback with the best college surrounding talent money can buy (legitimately now!)…he has elite offensive linemen/protection…he has elite weapons…he has an elite defense…he has an elite coaching staff and facilities. Young had every advantage you could ever want as a college quarterback – so how do you account for that advantage when comparing his college performance with, for example, Brock Purdy, who played in the shadows at 'boring' Iowa State surrounded by 3-star recruits?
Even before NILs/college kids were getting paid, Alabama was still the supreme place to go play in order to juice your draft stock/income. So much national interest in Alabama and the SEC. The public is by-and-large going to hear (and thus accept) the things barked at them constantly on TV by paid-to-hype-the-show TV announcers. And if the media and fans always see a team in the CFB playoffs (the highest rated viewership games in CFB), it leaves an impression…it must mean that all the Alabama players are a 'cut above', obvious future NFL stars.
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Introducing Bryce Young...
So, when I tell you (and explain why) Bryce Young is NOT the top prospect in the 2023 NFL Draft…that he's likely NOT even a 1st-round prospect…I'm not doing it to get a rise out of you. I'm not trying to be different for different's sake. I mean everything I'm about to say, as a scout with my 'money on the line'…and I mean it with good reason, and with a great track record to fall back on.
…and if you think I'm going to harp on Young's 'size' as the reason for my dissenting opinion, you're incorrect (but we'll discuss it for sure).
With all that said, let's talk about Bryce Young…
Let's roll back to the Tua and Mac (Jones), the recent Alabama QB parallels discussion -- because before I even entered this tape and data study, it was a mindset that needed to be embraced as I embarked on the film sessions. You cannot deny that Alabama QB prospects (and Ohio State's, among a very few others) have a unique, over-helpful set of circumstances around them during their college play.
Tua and Mac's output was fantastic in college. Tua was gonna be the hands down #1 pick in his draft for years leading up to his draft/since his CFB title game win as a freshman (came in relief of Jalen Hurts) but then he got hurt a few times, some serious injuries, and it cast some doubt, and then Joe Burrow came out of nowhere (another reason to question the two-year-straight Bryce Young drumbeat) -- but Tua being drafted #6 overall, with all his medical issues at the time, might as well have been a '#1 overall equivalent' mindset from the NFL/Miami.
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*For new readers: A quick background note: I do not watch any college football in-season. I do not want to corrupt/distract all the film watching of the NFL games every week, every game. In the summers, I do conduct a scouting series where myself and FFM's Ross Jacobs watch 15-30 minutes of tape on the top 50+ mainstream prospects for the next draft -- just a quick glimpse, fast reaction report out. But when it's the offseason, I start scouting/watching these prospects, this past college season, really for the first time to get a much better feel/discovery.
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Bryce Young, Through the Lens of Our QB Scouting Algorithm
-- Young had a better 2021 than 2022 season…more yards and TDs per game, a better Comp. Pct., but he also had an all-star cast at WR in 2021 (Jameson, Metchie, Bolden, and Br. Robinson at RB). A drop-off in WR talent/experience in 2022 may be the easy explanation for Young's production dip…but that's not what you want to see from a potential #1 draft pick prospect.
-- Rushed for over 10 yards in a game just seven times in 27 starts. *Obviously, CFB counts sack lost yardage as rushing yards.
-- Against Georgia 2x (2021), Texas (2022), and LSU (2022): 59.2% Comp. Pct., 6 TDs/3 INTs, 1.5 TD passes per game, 1,331 yards (332.8 yards) on a ton of passing attempts (because the games were close/Alabama down and scrambling to get back in), causing a weak 6.96 yards per attempt. Very 'human' numbers against equal-ish athletic opposition.
69.0% Comp. Pct. with 264.4 passing yards, 2.87 passing TDs per game = Tua's 2nd-season, 2018, #2 in the Heisman year.
77.4% Comp. Pct. with 346.2 passing yards, 3.15 passing TDs per game = Mac Jones' final season at Alabama/3rd in the Heisman
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The Historical QB Prospects to Whom Bryce Young Most Compares Within Our System
I didn't really think about this until I got to this portion of the report, but…there's not many sub-200-pound QB prospects to even try to compare Young to…not ones who played high-level D1 ball and succeeded.
I've got over 600+ QB prospects that I've scouted/graded over the years. And only 26 of them are under 200 pounds from 2022 and back 10+ years. Take away the non-D1 prospects and we're at 16. Take out the mid-major conference QBs and we're down to 8…eight QB prospects who were/are under 200 pounds and played D1/major conference football.
When it comes down to it, for his size, Bryce Young is one of a kind -- one of the smallest/thinnest overall QB prospects in recent years, but one who produced at a high level in a power conference. To some degree, there is no great comparison for Young. People throw around Drew Brees as a comp, because that's who all small/talented QBs get compared to…but Brees was 15-20 pounds heavier/thicker…with a more powerful arm (my judgment).
I'm going to be very liberal on the physical comp and going to lean more on our passer data analysis proprietary (weighted for opponent)…and block/ignore any size/passer comps who were also more mobile QBs…to try and find some kind of comps for Young that make sense. And honestly, I don't like any of these comps the computer spit back at me…and I'm having a hard time coming up with one from my mind's eye.
It makes me think back to last year's group of rookies…
Kenny Pickett was bigger, and much better in the pocket…but has a very average arm. I like Pickett as a better overall prospect than Young, at this point.
Brock Purdy is a possibility, for a comp of some kind, but Purdy's NFL tape (pre and in season) is fantastic…way better than Young, but maybe it's what Young can aspire to. The last two years, both Ross Jacobs (FFM scout) and I liked Purdy's scouting/game but had questions and mostly thought he was too small (and too dismissed by scouts) to get a real chance in the NFL, but he's bigger than Young (Purdy is 6'0.5”/212!
Otherwise, this is the comp table (below) that our system analysis produced as a 'type'/comp for Young…it's not good news -- that Wofford, Blough, Brandon Allen scrapper QB profile keeps popping up…QBs who were quite successful in D1 play but never had the size or hype or arm to be taken seriously from there, but are hanging in the NFL. Young is a better version of them, but the question is, how much better?
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2023 NFL Draft Outlook
I assume Young will go top three in the 2023 NFL Draft, because the hype will be insane and the media won't wanna cross 'Alabama', if they know what's good for them.
But I do believe there is a chance Young will get exposed in this pre-Draft process and he will fall in the rankings/public sentiment…like Pickett-Howell-Corral-Willis did…QBs who were all (mostly) top 5 overall projections for most websites out of the gates in 2021 (on the January QB rankings, which for the NFL Draft are usually a disaster when looked back on). As the pre-NFL Draft analysis meatgrinder gets up-to-speed the next few months, Young could get exposed/dinged for size and arm, and fall…I think he could fall right out of the 1st-round, but 'Alabama' should keep him top 10-20 overall.
Which side of the argument will win? (a) Alabama hype carries him into the top part of the draft or (b) scouting reality hits and he falls. I could see either happening, but I'll go with 'over-drafted' (top 10)/the hype allure too strong for some GM. Tua should've been out of the 1st-round but went #6 overall. Mac Jones was a very controversial/hotly debated prospect, and people pushed him top 5 pre-Draft…but he ended up #15 overall.
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NFL Outlook
I foresee a future for Young where he is drafted to be a starter quickly…the fans will demand it because they've been brainwashed into believing that he's the #1-2 prospect in the draft already. And Young can game manage well/run a basic offense (Arthur Smith would LOVE him). Young could be OK in a good spot…like Brock Purdy found in San Francisco (but I think Purdy is far superior to Young). But as with Tua and Mac, there will be such an impatience when Young gets exposed as 'marginally good' at best, not 'awesome' or 'elite' that he could be fighting for his starting career going into year three, maybe even year two. Tua and Mac both were turned on (by media/fans) in/after their second season…and Young could run into the same thing, because he is arguably the lesser physically talented of the three latest Alabama prospects.
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