2022-23 Divisional: Eagles 38, Giants 7 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)

I saved this game for last, among the four divisional round playoff games, to rewatch/study…for obvious reasons.

Not a lot to say here…pretty clear-cut. The Eagles jumped the Giants from the opening whistle and never relented, nor could the Giants punch back. It was 28-0 at the half…and felt worse than that.

This was the one game bet that I lost this past weekend. I thought NYG would keep it close/put up a fight. They did not.

Philly goes on to face the 49ers…and they are -2.5 favorites because of this recent game result (the thing that most matters to fans/casual bettors…what happened last week). A Philly blowout and the Niner struggles last weekend took what should’ve been a pick ‘em type game this week and installed Philly as the -2.5 favorite. Both PHI-SF are really good, obviously, so I will not be surprised if either team wins.

The Giants’ season ends here…a moral victory season. Sad to get bounced in the playoffs, but no one ever imagined NYG would get this far…so, it feels like a win…of sorts. But now the difficult part…

The Giants showed they cannot go to the promised land with Daniel Jones. Wild card…yes. To the finals and the Super Bowl? No. But this ‘feel good’ season is going to rope them into paying Daniel Jones, or franchise tagging him, to stay. On top of that, they’re potentially going to get suckered into the trap of paying a running back big money -- because if they don’t, then Daniel Jones is in big trouble operating without Barkley to take heat off of him. On top of that money they need to come up with, they also need to take the payroll losses on Kenny Golladay and need to find/add a #1 type WR.

The Giants are stuck in ‘no man’s land’ this offseason.

They just won a playoff game -- so, how do you break the band up? But the timing of things/all the key contracts expiring PLUS them playing over the heads this year…it warrants (to me) a breakup and rebuild without Jones or expensive Saquon. The Giants peaked this year, with this current group. It won’t be easy to retain Jones-Barkley, as Jones and Saquon have every reason to ask for the moon or hit free agency. A year ago, the Giants were not that interested in either player...now it’s time for payback…for pay up by NYG or leaving the family.

It just feels like the setup is: 2022…the feel-good story pushes NYG to pay up for Jones and Barkley in some fashion and then they can’t attract WRs in free agency due to players not interested to work with Jones, or live/play in New York. Big money to Jones-Barkley may keep them out of the linebacker market as strong as they might have hoped…all that happening together, and this feel-good story takes a step back in 2023. They might as well rip the band aid and start the weapon rebuild/youth movement, but it’s so hard to do when coming off such a positive season. The NFL typically does the least boat-rocking thing/option available…so, I assume they’ll pay Saquon and tag Jones…kicking the can down the road.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Does Daniel Jones (15-27 for 135 yards, 0 TDs/1 INT) deserve to be the Giants franchise QB?

I guess he deserves a chance to return for 2023 and to build on his 2022 season and prove (or not) that he is a franchise QB. I wouldn’t commit to him long term, but a franchise tag while you draft a future QB could be a way to go.

When push came to shove, in this game where NYG got down and needed to push back into it…in an era where 28-0 deficits at the half means the trailing QB is just getting warmed up for a 28+ point explosion in the second half…Jones flopped.

There’s a myth going around, that sounds like it’s true -- but isn’t. “Oh, Brian Daboll led Jones to his best season…more TD passes and less turnover than ever.” I heard Colin Cowherd say it this week.

BUT…it’s not true.

Jones had 24 TD passes as a rookie. He had 15 this season…a season he played his most games in a campaign ever. He did have his lowest career turnover count…but not his best passing output. In fact, it was one of his worst passer outputs.

Jones’ career numbers, a comparison…

2019 = 1.8 TD passes, 232.8 passing yards per game

2020 = 0.8 TD passes, 210.2 passing yards per game

2021 = 0.9 TD passes, 220.7 passing yards per game

2022 = 0.9 TD passes, 200.3 passing yards per game

All Jones has a claim to…all Daboll has a claim to is: (1) lower turnovers, (2) more wins. NOT that he’s a better/more dangerous passer. Jones cleaned up his downside but didn’t push to a new upside.

 -- The real dilemma for NYG to re-sign is Saquon Barkley (9-61-0, 2-21-0/3). He IS their offense…the one that defenses plan to stop, so NYG needs him. But you also should under no circumstances pay a free agent RB big money in this day and age.

What do they do?

If you could only pick one, Jones or Barkley…who would you pick to have? Who’s more important to the franchise? Who’s more replaceable? Who’s missed a bunch of games in 2020 and 2021?

The business answer might be ‘neither’, but we never see teams (outside of occasional Belichick) turn away from their previous year’s stars and let them go to free agency -- they almost always pay the toll…and then regret in less than a year, two max.

Barkley, I believe, wants to get to free agency…he can reject every NYG proposal (as he did all in-season 2022) and force NYG to franchise tag him, but they aren’t going to want to tag Barkley/tag an RB…and Saquon would be furious with that.

 -- If NYG is gonna give it a-go with Daniel Jones, they have to get him some real WR weapons.

Isaiah Hodgins (1-3-0/2) and Darius Slayton (1-4-0/5) were shut down by the Philly secondary this game (blame D. Jones too). Hodgins will return, Slayton heads out to free agency, most likely. Richie James (7-51-0/10) is not a legit starting slot WR…he may return to be a backup WR and return man. Wan’Dale Robinson will take that slot role back from James if he’s recovered from his ACL this upcoming season.

Kadarius Toney is gone. Kenny Golladay died, football-wise. It will cost approx. $15M to kick Golladay out.

What was supposed to be Toney-Golladay-Wan’Dale ended up Hodgins-Slayton-James.

In 2023, it will likely be Hodgins-______-Wan’Dale.

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 -- Not much to speak about from the Eagles side. They ran at will. They used the TE more, as is warranted by the terrible NYG pass defense against the TE…and we hit our props on Dallas Goedert (5-58-1/5) but it wasn’t until late that he got over…because of the blowout.

Jalen Hurts (16-24 for 154 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT, 9-34-1) mowed right through the healthy Giants defense with nary a concern.

A big test for Hurts this week with SF…because you can’t run on them, but you can throw on them -- the Eagles need to come out firing.

Hurts has faced two top 10 run defenses this season (#1 TEN, #9 PIT), he has thrown for 332.5 yards and 3.5 TDs/0 INTs per game in the two. Wow.

Expanding, when Hurts has faced a top 12 run defense, so the two above and WSH twice, Hurts has averaged: 295.0 yards, 3.0 TDs/.25 INTs per game.

Hurts/Sirianni has attacked an opponent’s weakness hard all season. We discuss how to bet Jalen Hurts props for this week, among all the other early opportunities, on my daily streaming bettor notes for subscribers.

Snap Counts of Interest:

28 = Sanders

26 = Gainwell

16 = B Scott

43 = Bellinger

15 = Cager