R.C. Fischer

FFM

29 September 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 3: Falcons 17, Giants 14

No need for any intense game summary here. All you need to know (you already know) -- both these teams are bad…not the absolute worst, but bottom 10 in the NFL. They are going nowhere in 2021, thus it was a back-and-forth affair…and Atlanta won with a last second FG.

The Giants won by gaining an advantage for 2022 NFL Draft position this offseason with this important loss.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- OK…OK…OK, I’ll start to go all-in on Cordarrelle Patterson (7-20-0, 6-82-0/7) starter every week at RB for Fantasy. I’d been spot starting him and been hesitant to go too heavy in places because he was still operating as a backup. But now this is consecutive game tapes where we see he’s the best player the Falcons have…and even better – the Falcons/Matt Ryan actually knows this and uses it.

There’s an ACTUAL plan to get CP the ball. He gets carries. He’s in the game quickly after Mike Davis starts. We see Patterson lined up as a tailback, and he’s the best RB they have. We see him lined up as a WR, and he’s the best WR they have…the best mismatch. Ryan often takes the easy out dump pass to Patterson…which is great for FF.

Week 1 with Patterson was ‘meh’, and then it’s been a nice ride the past two weeks…and growing.

The last three weeks % of snaps played (in Weeks 1-2-3 order)…

75-64-60% = Mike Davis

33-33-42% = C Patterson

The gap is closing.

Patterson has the 8th most catches of any RB this season…oddly, Mike Davis is #6 (14 to 13 Mike D over CPatt YTD)…Matt Ryan lives to check down for personal safety.

I’m taking the FF-shackles off…let’s see CPatt as a PPR RB1.5 until further notice. So, when you say ‘I am hurting at RB’ and you list Patterson as your 4th or 5th RB (in PPR)…I’m not listening to it.

Non-FFM CPatt owners see him more as a backup, an OK PPR back who is peaking/lucky/James White-Nyhiem Hines-esque. You’re chasing all kinds of ‘name’ RBs to pacify your RB lust, and all your trades are rejected or too heavy to get boring RB2s. Why not trade easy for Patterson? You have to change your view/vision on him. Your RB issue is likely your own mental block…and looking right past Patterson as legit.

We need to change ourselves, in many cases, to solve this heinous, perpetual, supposed RB issue our Fantasy teams have EVERY SINGLE YEAR. And we really have to get it straight that Patterson is a legit RB2 now…with upside. We need to look at it through a different lens/pair of glasses: https://youtu.be/yjw_DuNkOUw, wake up!

 -- The Falcons have a plan for Cordarrelle…and they have none for Kyle Pitts (2-35-0/3).

When was Pitts’ first actual target in this game, you ask? Thank you for asking – with 11+ minutes left in the 4th-quarter. The first non-QB taken in the 2021 NFL Draft, five months of offseason preparation, and 5,000 interviews discussing all the ways you could use Pitts…and with all that, Pitts has no plan offered from the offensive genius Arthur Smith. https://youtu.be/FBgFHVELjGk

To be fair, Pitts is rarely/never open.

To be fair, he’s running generic ancient tight end routes.

You have this weapon of mass TE destruction going out five yards and turning around/sitting down over the middle. Great. How many hours do coaches work a day again, I forget? Aren’t they the first one in the building at 2am…and then the last one to leave at 1:55am? What are they doing with all that time? Not thinking up simple ways to get Pitts involved into the action.

In the 4th-quarter, Pitts got a nice, simple medium route throw to break the ice. Then two desperate, unplanned ‘up for grabs’ throws in the end zone, which I want…except the first was 10 feet over his head…the next off his hands but he was interfered with, and still almost made the TD grab.

I’ll just keep rolling with Pitts. He’s too good. He is waiting to be unshackled.

What, you think Dalton Schultz is the answer to your TE woes? There’s like two good tight ends in Fantasy…and 20 ‘hope they catch a TD to make this week worth it’ guys. There’s still hope Pitts is at least a random TE1. He’s the 7th most targeted TE on the season…so, that’s something anyway.

 -- I was hoping Evan Engram (2-21-0/6) could splash in his debut, but he didn’t. Watching him here – he looks great, but Dan Jones is more apt to dump it off to Barkley…or heave it to the tallest WR he can see (with Shepard taken away by injury). Engram working in the middle is kryptonite to scared QBs…they hate throwing over the middle.

Dan Jones is a faster-footed Matt Ryan…both dumping it off to stay safe or leaning on one WR they lock onto. A tight window route running TE does not fit with their scared-style. But to be fair, Jones looks a lot better doing it this year…and better than Matt Ryan in the year of Our Lord 2021.

 -- That being said about Dan Jones and tall WRs, man did Collin Johnson (5-51-0/7) look like a boss! The former super-tall Jags WR (I guess he’s still tall, but not with the Jags) now Giants scrap heap pickup was the best WR on the field this day…coming in when Shephard-Slayton got hurt.

With Shepard-Slayton out this week, I could buy Johnson having another solid game as the Golladay-alternative tall-guy throw for Jones…but the Saints secondary is a boss, so I bet all the NYG WRs have issues this week for FF.

If Shepard-Slayton out long term…then Johnson has hope ahead. WR3/Flex hope.

 -- Kadarius Toney (2-16-0/3) is not likely to step up with the Shepard-Slayton injuries. Toney is a fraud. I can’t be any clearer. Athletic, but a jerk and overrated, a non-hard working WR. A spoiled brat WR.

 -- When Blake Martinez went down and out for the year from this game…it ended any NYG hope of winning this game, or competing in 2021, or having a desired/useable DST in good matchups. Losing Martinez rips the heart and soul out of a team that had just about lost all its heart and soul due to this oppressive head coach already.

Tae Crowder (11 tackles, 1 PD) replaces Martinez…but that’s nowhere near as IDP exciting as Martinez, but teams will likely attack the NYG linebackers now…so lots of tackle opps for Crowder.

Snap Counts of Interest:

48 = Golladay

46 = Toney

34 = C Johnson

24 = Shepard

22 = Board

39 = Engram

29 = Rudolph

28 = K Smith

37 = Mk Davis

26 = CPatt

52 = Pitts

26 = Lee Smith

24 = Hurst

R.C. Fischer

FFM

29 September 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 3: Cardinals 31, Jaguars 19

Kyler Murray said, after the game, something to the effect of – this was the type of game we would have lost in the past.

That’s a very important statement about this game. Why? The reason why he made the statement is – they were getting beat. Outplayed, or toe-to-toe and with early breaks going the Jags’ way (like the 109-yard missed FG returned for a TD). Jacksonville went step for step with Arizona, but the Cardinals DEFENSE bailed them out…a pick-six to take the lead at the end of the 3rd-quarter, then halting most all the 3rd-downs (JAX 2-of-11 for the game on 3rd-down), and Arizona getting another turnover to close the game out.

The takeaways from this game are interesting…

1) Arizona did what good teams do – faced with adversity they stepped up and seized the momentum/game back away from the opponent.

2) Jacksonville is not a terrible team…two weeks in a row playing good teams and the Jags hanging right with them. Still too many mistakes, but Jacksonville is playing better and better every week.

Jacksonville +7.5 at Cincinnati is a bet I’m taking and will be talking about all week.

Arizona showed they are a legit good team here, but they coulda/shoulda lost their last two games and been (1-2) and panicking. They are (3-0) and not panicking. They are a good team that’s closer to a great team than a mediocre one. This win, and last week’s comeback win…great foundational steps at building a winning group.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Because I believe the Jaguars have one of the best offensive lines in football, I’m suddenly VERY interested in James Robinson (15-88-1, 6-46-0/6).

The Jags O-Line is 5th best in rushing yards per carry (5.1) so far this season and 5th best (lowest) in sacks allowed. My eyeballs see it…the data supports it.

Note, if you pursue JRob in a trade, he obviously just had a great week…but note he sucked (stat wise) Weeks 1-2. Yes, it’s a bad week to chase him after the nice Week 3…but he’s gettable/chase-able, if we’re right about this O-Line…and we are.

 -- Because the O-Line is very good, Trevor Lawrence (22-34 for 219 yards, 1 TD/2 INTs) has lots of time and is looking more and more plausible every week…NFL plausible. Not sure he’s FF plausible yet, but going to be the best of the bottom 5-10 ranked QBs out there, or on redraft waivers right now, etc.

He’s been cursed with facing DEN and ARI the past two weeks – two of the best defenses in the league. CIN this week isn’t easy but easier than DEN-ARI.

 -- Who woulda thunk Christian Kirk (7-104-0/8) as the top WR for FF off the Cardinals, but so far it’s true. Two-and-a-half solid weeks of results for Kirk. He’s the #15 Fantasy WR in PPR PPG right now.

It’s working…so ride it. Just be careful going too crazy for him – he’s secondary to Hopkins for targets and note he’s only playing 57-62-57% of offensive snaps in his three games so far. He’s not on the field 90%+ of the time getting things…he’s more specialized.

He’s a good FLEX right now, or ‘sell high’ to chase something bigger you want.

 -- What happened to Rondale Moore (2-1-0/2)? Didn’t get used as much this week. Still only plays about a 1/3rd of the snaps. Hard to see him as more than a WR3/FLEX right now. Super talented, and his time is coming…but it takes some time for rookies to hit consistency. Three weeks played, two nice weeks and one dud. It happens.

Had a goal line wildcat run…stopped short of a rushing TD, of course…

 -- A.J. Green (5-112-0/6) had a nice week, but it doesn’t look great on tape. AJG is always covered and is painful to watch…but he is a reliable guy when open. He’s made some decent plays, but mostly he’s covered and not a real option for Kyler.

 -- Before each of James Conner’s (11-43-2, 1-10-0/1) rushing TDs here, there were other attempts to run it in with other players. Conner is going to be the goal line guy in most instances, but that’s about his best appeal…and he’s usually not the first choice by the team for them always.

Those two TDs going to Conner hurt Chase Edmonds (11-26-0, 7-49-0/8), but don’t blame Conner…Edmonds had his shots to score ahead of Conner but didn’t cross the goal line. Edmonds is killing it as a pass catcher (2nd most catches among RBs in 2021) but he’s not an optimal goal line guy. Edmonds makes his hay in PPR…not non-PPR.

 -- Marvin Jones (6-62-0/8) is Trevor’s BFF target over all the WRs…not Chark, not Shenault.

YTD targets…

28 = Jones

22 = Chark

21 = Shenault

15 = J Robinson

YTD catches…

17 = M Jones

13 = Shenault

12 = J Robinson

07 = Chark

When Jacksonville gets easier defenses to face, Jones might be a strong WR1.5…as he usually is the past few seasons.

 -- The Jaguars traded shutdown cornerback C.J. Henderson away for really nothing in return – which is the M.O. of the Urban Meyer regime…selling assets for pennies on the dollar because ‘Urban mad, Urban not like players who don’t think he’s a god’.

This move doesn’t make the decent Jags defense any better. Rookie DB Tyson Campbell (8 tackles, 1 PD) ascends to CJH’s starting spot. He’s promising for IDP…struggling to cover, but a good tackler = good IDP numbers for a CB.

Dan Arnold in return for Henderson…really? And a 3rd-round pick…that they’ll likely butcher. You can trade Henderson if you want, but great job driving down his trade value all summer and then selling him for half of what he is worth.

Arnold comes into a situation that’s better than where he came from, for him…for FF…but not likely going to be an FF factor, but we’ll see. James O’Shaughnessy was getting a lot of targets before he went down.

 -- Jags SAF Andrew Wingard (7 tackles, 1 PD) has fully taken over as a starting safety playing 100% of the snaps (Wk3). He’s averaging 7.0 tackles per game this season – promising. He’s a wannabe Harrison Smith. He’s not bad. Has the mindset of a linebacker at safety.

 -- Another week, another time I watch Arizona’s defense and walk away thinking ‘damn, they’re good’. No team has the mix of talent, depth, attitude and flying to the ball and hitting hard on nearly every play like the Cardinals.

Now, it’s a promising, aggressive defense…but it’s not the 2019 Bears or 2017-18 Broncos or the 84 Bears. It’s very good, very promising…could wind up the best in football. But they’re only ‘really good’ right now. They are susceptible to a bad matchup. Week 4 at LAR is not a favorable FF scoring matchup for them. They might shine, but on paper…you’d like to avoid this.

Weeks 5-6 are better with SF-CLE, but it’s also facing two of the best O-Lines in the game…not super-juicy for FF numbers. Week 7 with HOU is sweet. Week 8 vs. GB probably not sweet. It’s a choppy schedule ahead for this very good defense – not a must hold if you see better to stream. They might blow through Weeks 5-6-7 by sheer force of their talent, but I wouldn’t tempt fate Week 4 at LAR. If they crush LAR…then you know something great is unfolding.

Snap Counts of Interest:

46 = Hollister

25 = Manhertz

17 = L Farrell

40 = JRob

23 = Hyde

61 = Hopkins

53 = AJG

38 = Kirk

23 = Moore

44 = Edmonds

25 = Connor

Ross Jacobs

FFM

29 September 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 3: Packers 30, 49'ers 28

The Packers jumped out to a big 17-0 lead over the 49'ers and the game looked all but over. But San Fran clawed their way back into the game and nearly pulled off the win after taking the lead with about a minute left. Unfortunately a minute is too much time with Aaron Rodgers on the other side and the Packers drove down and kicked a 51 yard field goal to take the game.

The narrative from the national media is that the Packers are fixed, they are fine, that Week 1 against the Saints was an aberration. They have a dominant offense and are going to win 13 games again this year. Don't believe it. This offense is nowhere near as strong as they were last year. The offensive line is beaten up and Rodgers only has two real ways to attack defenses, Aaron Jones and Davante Adams (who apparently is a complete unknown because no defense seems to know he's getting the ball every other play). The defense seems average at best. Add it all up and you have maybe a 10 win team, which is decent but not one of the strongest in the NFC. They are going to be battling the Vikings for the division all year.

RC Note: I believe the Packers are better than a 10-win team, and are going to get better as we go on two fronts:

1) The offensive line gets a huge boost when David Bahktari comes off PUP midseason.

2) This defense got better this week/game when they moved to starting Eric Stokes -- Jaire Alexander and Stokes are a lethal CB duo. This defense is getting, and only ignored because the Saints thumped them Week 1 -- but that was a fluke of a game where the Saints barely had any yards but did have a ton of TDs. This defense is good/going to get better as we go. 

As for the 49'ers, they are in a somewhat similar boat. The offense isn't great because Jimmy Garoppolo is holding it back (there are other issues but this is the biggest). I've been hammering this point for months now. He's a limited QB with a weak and somewhat erratic arm, and even though he mostly makes good decisions, he stills throws some incredibly stupid passes at times. The defense isn't great either because they have one gaping problem and that's the secondary. Why they continue to ignore this problem is beyond me. SF was already short on good corners to start the year, and now a bunch of them are hurt. SF is going to score some points this year because despite all his flaws, Shanahan is still a good offensive coordinator, but the current iteration of this team is only good for maybe a 9-8 record or so. They aren't a real playoff threat and will very likely finish last in that division.

Fantasy Notes

--Jimmy Garoppolo (25-40 for 257 yards, 2 TD/1 INT) continues to look underwhelming. He's just so limited it's beyond obvious that the team needs to just roll out Lance and let him take his rookie beating. This team is going nowhere with Jimmy.

We're getting closer and closer to the debut of Trey Lance. I thought perhaps Kyle would come out with him in the 2nd half here after Jimmy completely bombed the first half, but they stuck with the veteran and nearly pulled off the win. Garoppolo likely held onto his job for another week with this near comeback win, but it's just a matter of time until the dam breaks.

‍

RC Note: They longer they don't make this change...to me, shows more that they do not fully trust Lance. We’ll see Lance when the season starts getting away from SF...and it will, soon enough.

--The debut of Trey Sermon (10-31-1, 2-3-0/3) was...disappointing to say the least. The TD saved his fantasy day, but you can't count on this going forward. Sermon looks poor running the ball and Kyle was doing everything he could to keep Sermon from taking carries. Juszczyk was taking carries. Samuel took carries. Even Kittle got a carry. Most tellingly Garoppolo threw 40 passes. Some of that was because they were in an early hole, but mostly it was because Kyle does not trust Sermon at all. When Elijah Mitchell comes back this is his backfield. Sermon is unusable for the time being.

--Deebo Samuel (5-52-0/10, 2-0-0) is the #1 WR here by a mile and will get a nice amount of targets this year, but Jimmy is a limited passer and Lance is likely going to be rather scattershot when he gets in, so it's really going to limit Samuel's upside. He didn't help himself here either with a couple of drops. RC likes him as a WR1 this year, or at least he did before this game, but I've always been of the opinion that he was more of a WR2.

--To start the year we thought it was Deebo as the 1A and Brandon Aiyuk (4-37-0/6, 1-8-0) as the 1B, but so far Aiyuk has been significantly behind Deebo. He really doesn't look good at all. I'm not seeing any juice in his movements, his hands have been shaky; it's been a real mess. Not sure what's going on with him right now. He got as many targets as Mohamed Sanu which is worrisome, but he's on the field nearly every play so I have to imagine they are going to try to get him more involved soon. If Deebo goes down with another injury things get more interesting.

--The best player on this offense is still George Kittle (7-92-0/9), but only 2 TD's in his last 10 games, 4 in his last 18 games, and 7 in his last 24 going all the way back to 2019. It's not an aberration at this point. It's a pattern. I'm not saying it's a Kittle issue, but it is an issue regardless. You simply can't have Kittle in the same conversation for fantasy with Waller and Kelce right now. He fits better in the next group with Andrews and Hockenson.

--I put out the warning last week on Aaron Rodgers (23-33 for 261 yards, 2 TD/0 INT) and I'm doing it again now. This offense doesn't look good and this is about as good as it's going to get for Aaron this year. This isn't 2020 anymore and Rodgers isn't throwing for 300 yards or 4 TD's every game. Against a very shaky 49'er secondary all he could manage was about 250 yards and 2 TD's with half of that going to Davante. What's going to happen against better teams that can take Adams away? I hope you were able to flip him for Allen like I suggested last week because that window is gone now. The schedule is about to get really rough and I don't think Rodgers is going to handle it well.

RC Note: I’m not as worried about the GB schedule ahead...if PItt is still missing T.J. Watt Week 4, and if Washington’s defense has died then Week 7 is fine. The schedule is shifting to OK/neutral ahead, for me, on GB/Rodgers. 

--Speaking of Davante Adams (12-132-1/18), how is it possible that this guy is wide open every single play? What is media darling defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans doing all week? It doesn't take a brain surgeon to see that Adams is literally all Rodgers has to throw to and yet you don't think to put two guys on him every single play? Pray your franchise doesn't hire Ryans to be its head coach in a few years.

--Aaron Jones (19-82-1, 2-14-2) continues to look as good as I've ever seen him. He's still an underrated RB1 in this offense where he's half of the volume.

--You know who doesn't look good? AJ Dillon (6-18-0, 2-8-0/2). It might just be this terrible offensive line, but he looks slow as hell. It may be that he simply doesn't have anywhere to run, but Jones seems to be doing just fine. I thought we might see more of a 60-40 split between the two backs this year, but so far Jones is dominating the touches. Is that because Dillon isn't performing as well as expected for the coaches?

--I'm not even going to talk about any other Packers receiving options. They are suck at the moment and this lame offense isn't doing anyone any favors. Allen Lazard (1-42-0/1) is the one player that could really take this offense up a notch, but you see how he gets treated. Early catch and run for 42 yards after blowing past his defender off the snap and doesn't get another target the rest of the game.

IDP Notes

--RC mentioned one of my favorite defenders in the game in his 5 Things article and he's absolutely correct. I was complaining to him all summer how I didn't understand why literally nobody was signing De'Vondre Campbell (12 tackles) and then the Packers scooped him up for a mere $2 million. That was quite possibly the best value signing of the off-season. Campbell has instantly become their defensive leader and best player (other than maybe Jaire Alexander). Being a GM in the NFL is such a difficult job...

--Another guy RC brought to my attention recently is SF linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair (10 tackles) and through 3 games now he's got 22 tackles for a bit over 7 tackles a game. He's on pace for around 120 tackles for the year. Not bad! It looks like he's going to get a bit more work with Dre Greenlaw out for a few weeks. I still maintain that my scouting on him is correct: he's not an impact player at all and half his stats come from cleaning up other people's tackles (5 assisted here), but regardless it works for fantasy so keep riding it.

Snap Counts of Interest

63 = Deebo Samuel

60 = Brandon Aiyuk

45 = Mohamed Sanu

48 = Kyle Juszczyk

41 = Trey Sermon

56 = Davante Adams

42 = Allen Lazard

40 = Marques Valdes-Scantling

46 = Aaron Jones

18 = AJ Dillon

R.C. Fischer

FFM

29 September 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 3: Chargers 30, Chiefs 24

The Los Angeles Chargers are better than the Kansas City Chiefs…and they know it. ‘They’ is both L.A. and KC. The L.A. Chargers are now the favorites to win the AFC West…or they should be.

This isn’t a ‘what happened last week means that’s the law going forward’ overreaction. You know I don’t fall for that. It’s not that the Chiefs are bad…it’s just the Chargers are better.

LAC has the better O-Line (and they were missing their top OL for this game). LAC has the better WR group…group/starting trio. The combo WR/TE group…it’s about even. RB is the same…each has a small guy RB who is good, but I’d rather have Ekeler than CEH…but either works. The Chargers are WAY better coached. KC has a good defense…but LAC’s is better 1 thru 11.

KC has a better kicker, tight end, and I’d judge slightly better at QB…but in a couple weeks or months…it could be a draw there. KC has that QB-TE-PK edge…the Chargers better everywhere else. KC has a home field advantage – if/when they play in December, and they do this year.

Worst case, they are both top five or so teams in the NFL…possibly two of the top 3 best teams in the league.

I push LAC as the better team now, and for the future because of the coaching and roster top-to-bottom. But I also feel comfortable saying it because the mystique of ‘the Chiefs’…’Mahomes’…’Tyreek’, for the Chargers, it’s gone/done.

Justin Herbert is now (2-1) versus the Chiefs in his career…the lone loss was his Tyrod lung puncture, last second debut where the Chiefs luckily won in OT…a total shock at the time, that the rookie QB of a bad team could go and lay the smackdown on the holy Chiefs. Granted one win was a Week 17 last year vs. Chad Henne.

The Chargers have zero fear of the Chiefs going forward…the weight of that ‘fear’ is put over to KC, they should fear that they are not-as-good-as-the-Chargers LAC – but they’re so arrogant in believing they can beat anyone with Mahomes (logical), it’s probably not dawned on them yet. When they are on the road as a wild card this season, maybe it will dawn on them – that’s if they even make the playoffs or don’t finish last in the AFC West. Kidding…

The Chargers baited KC into running the ball more and not throwing to Tyreek, because Eric Bieniemy is such a genius and thinks not getting Tyreek manufactured touches is not important to victory, so KC took the bait and turned themselves into a small ball team playing a more dynamic one…and the dynamic one won. When they needed a big play, LAC dared KC to beat them with Marcus Kemp, Jody Fortson, and Mecole Hardman – and KC took that bait and lost.

I’m not saying the Chiefs are terrible – they are still a top 5 team as likely to win the division and win the Super Bowl as any top team. They are not unworthy, I’m just saying – they’re not as good as they think and the Chargers are that good, and are not living in fear of KC.

This whole current t week, every football analyst will smugly chuckle that us moronic fans are so stupid…likely panicking over KC’s (1-2) start…because THEY know KC will be fine. THEY think that because THEY (healthy) fear Mahomes…THEIR football game analysis goes as far as the QB who has the most highlights/that they like. You know who doesn’t fear KC/Mahomes – the Chargers, who’ve beaten them 2 of out the last three (should’ve been 3-0). The Raiders who beat them in their first matchup last year, and then got robbed with a late TD from sweeping them last year. And Denver, who usually flusters Mahomes above all defenses. Unfortunately for KC, those are the three intradivision teams…who are all now above KC in the standings.

We project KC to 11-12 wins right now. We project LAC to 12-13 wins and the AFC West title, today as we know these teams. Kansas City is still a top five team (because of Mahomes)…and still can win the Super Bowl (because of Mahomes), but it’s time to recognize that KC has issues and are getting bypassed or caught up to by several teams now. It’s not a layup for KC in 2021-22.

The Chiefs are now (1-3) in their last 4 games (including the Super Bowl)…a lucky come from behind win vs. CLE Week 1 from losing four straight.

The Chargers are (6-1) in their last 7 games…a last second FG loss vs. Dallas away from being (3-0) and winners of seven-straight.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Is Justin Herbert (26-38 for 281 yards, 4 TDs/0 INT) better than Patrick Mahomes (27-44 for 260 yards, 3 TDs/2 INTs)? For Fantasy? For the NFL?

For the NFL? Maybe. Not yet, but soon…possibly. Can’t they both just be great? Mahomes is more flashy-great, more memorable…Herbert is a bit smarter/more technically surgical…but both are tremendous. Which makes the point – if they are in a close debate about which one is better – then shouldn’t the Chargers be the favorite to win the AFC West?

On FanDuel, the Chargers are currently +390 to win the West…behind -115 KC…and +340 Denver.

Every analyst says…oh, you know the Chiefs will get it together, don’t worry about (1-2). Why don’t we say…oh, the Chargers are in 3rd-place in the AFC West, but you know they’ll get past Denver and Vegas and challenge for the West title? We only say that about the Chiefs because it’s been indoctrinated into us. I think the Chiefs will be fine (hot take), but we’re missing out on that so too will the Chargers be fine/are fine+…as they go on to win the AFC West…maybe.

Better for Fantasy?

Draw…or lean Mahomes. If you swapped the two QBs on their respective teams, then definitely Mahomes for FF. Here’s a real hot take – I think Mahomes would be at a whole other level with Brandon Staley his whole career, and that Andy Reid/Eric Bieniemy and the lack of decent WRs outside of Tyreek Hill is actually harnessing Mahomes…and he’s still the best QB in football – that’s how great Mahomes is…he’s overcoming Reid/Nagy/Bieniemy. Kinda like how good Brady is away from Belichick, but he won several Super Bowl with Belichick.

 -- Tyreek Hill (5-56-0/7) two crap FF-games in a row now. That’s something I’d like to just put the broad ‘You know KC will be fine’ label on…’You know Tyreek will be fine’. I’m assuming he will be, but no one has a worse scheme for an ace weapon than the illustrious Eric Bieniemy (so really, it’s Andy Reid’s issue…he’s the front man for these perpetual bad O-Cs…Pederson, Nagy, Bieniemy) has for Tyreek Hill.

Davante Adams always gets the ball…even though everyone knows it’s coming.

Cooper Kupp keeps blowing up single coverage all 2021, even though any idiot D-C knows it’s coming, it can’t be stopped.

Tyreek Hill? He’s open literally every play if he ran different routes adjusting to the defense. Defenses play way back on him, so instead of adjusting and getting Tyreek short/quick touches to counter…the Chiefs brain trust just keeps sending Hill medium and deep into the web waiting for him. But, hey…Eric Bieniemy is the next great NFL head coach and it’s racism is why he hasn’t been hired yet, after going 0-fer-10/20 on head job attempts the past two years.

The NFL isn’t racist on Bieniemy, they’re just smart enough to know the KC O-C con. The O-Cs are not MAKING Patrick Mahomes…see: Matt Nagy’s Chicago career of QB destruction. No more than Byron Leftwich is now a great O-C because Brady walked in the building.

Tyreek should be fine; we go through this at least once a year. Honestly, in a league without bonuses – I’d rather have Cooper Kupp…and probably Mike Williams and/or Keenan Allen for PPR redraft right now. Those QBs and HCs and O-Cs know to get those guys the ball without fail.

 -- Yes, Mike Williams (7-122-2/9) ahead of Tyreek…I said it. I can’t believe it myself, but it’s working better than we theorized in the summer of 2021. Williams looks better than I’ve ever seen him – he’s in top shape, faster/moving quicker than I’ve ever seen him…and obviously it is showing on the field and in the box score. Amazing what an ace QB, new (good) coaching staff, and a contract year does for a player.

You know I’m kidding about Tyreek…I would never trade him in a basic WR deal. Just venting.

Williams is going to be a WR1 all year, as long as Herbert is alive.

Between Keenan and Mike…I think I’d take Mike for FF right now; he’s been that good.

And, as I spoke of on the Video Q&A Tuesday…remarkably Williams is not being ranked by websites as a WR1 this week…he’s more WR2 than WR1 nationally. I’m seeing trades for Williams right now, despite his heat…because current owners (not FFMers) think this jig may be up and they need to sell it hot.

Ja’Marr Chase is a sell hot…not Mike Williams. If I can use like a Deebo + ____ to leverage into Mike Williams, I am all over it.

 -- Clyde Edwards-Helaire (17-100-0, 2-9-1/2) is fine, nice game…but this isn’t a breakout F performance. No more than Peyton Barber hitting 100+ yards rushing is a sign. If CEH had 90 yards here…no one cares as much. But THREE digits…100 rushing yards, why it’s GAME ON!! The same reason people are into Damien Harris (vs. MIA) and Elijah Mitchell (vs. DET) so much…they had that ONE 100-yard rushing game recently, so they’re Jim Brown now.

CEH has now played in 16 career regular season games. He has rushed for 4 TDs and three 100+ yard games. 992 yards rushing total. 6 total TDs.

Wow, wonderful! A solid RB2. You’d rather have James Robinson among others.

 -- One of the flaws of the L.A. Chargers is their RB group. For some reason, Larry Roundtree (4-3-0, 0-0-0/1) is seeing key touches.

There’s literally a billion RBs better than Roundtree…why won’t the Chargers go get one? Roundtree is averaging 2.2 yards per carry and has 1 catch for -1 yards so far this season…what an impact to the offense! Go get Marlon Mack…or something…anything. They need a hammer RB working with Ekeler…and Roundtree is not it.

 -- Not for nothing, Joe Fortson (2-7-1/2) is looking better and better for KC. He’s showing that he’s a good receiver with great catch radius as a tall TE/WR type, and fortunately all the other KC WRs outside of Tyreek shouldn’t be on NFL rosters…so Fortson has some chance to stand out here.

Which means newly signed Josh Gordon has some chance here – but note Gordon was last good last decade for about 10 games…and he’s been a flop since. You have to hope Gordon staying off drugs, improving with age, not taking a toll to his body due to drugs the past 5-10 years, and he gets integrated into the KC offense…all within the next week or two to go on to become a WR2 (in your dreams) – for this waiver claim to make any sense in normal sized roster leagues.

You are living a legit Fantasy if you think you got something hot with Gordon. Sit on him and wait and see in deeper roster leagues, if you’d like…but in normal sized leagues, you are wasting time as you turned your nose up at Christian Kirk and Sterling Shepard (pre-injury) among others off waivers the past few weeks. We always want that Disney story…investing too heavy on rookies and taking nostalgic flyers on washed-up veteran reclamation projects like Gordon.

I could probably guess your Fantasy record in 10-12 team leagues by the amount of rookies you start each week?

One rookie consistently starting…you’re probably 2-1/1-2.

Two rookies starting every week, you’re (1-2)/(0-3) probably.

No rookies have started for you this year, you’re probably (3-0)/(2-1).

Those magical rookies suck all of us in every time and are a letdown early in their rookie journey. In 2022, in prep for redrafts, I am making it a Ten Commandment NOT to take one rookie before rounds like 8-10 of a typical redraft. Najee-Pitts-Javonte-CEH-JTaylor…they’ve all been over-spends off the jump in redraft the past two years.

 -- I want to like the Chargers-DST, because I think they are a really good defensive unit (maybe a top 5 in the league)…but I hate their schedule start. LV-CLE-BAL ahead is not great for DST scoring. Then a Week 7 bye – but it’s Week 7 that I might pounce in anticipation – NE-PHI-MIN-PIT-DEN-CIN-NYG-KC-HOU-DEN. Find a stream for the MIN and KC games and you’re golden otherwise in that post-Week 7 stretch.

Brandon Staley might be the best defensive mind this side of Sean McDermott in the NFL.

Snap Counts of Interest:

49 = CEH

27 = D Williams

03 = McKinnon

46 = J Cook

31 = Parham

49 = Ekeler

11 = Roundtree

07 = J Jackson 

R.C. Fischer

FFM

28 September 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 3: Bengals 24, Steelers 10

The Steelers were never really in this game. I mean…it was semi-close, not a blowout but as an observer, and to the fans in the stadium, and to the two teams on the field – you could see it in their faces, the Bengals were never worried the Steelers were the better team or making a comeback here.

The predominant look on the faces of the fans in attendance, and to the players on either side was more likely a shocked realization a la: https://youtu.be/RP-hMSQEAE4, a realization that the Steelers are done…the Bengals are clearly the better of the two teams/headed in a better direction and the Steelers are dying right before our very eyes.

Now, it’s possible the Steelers get back their injured key defenders and are a tough out, low scoring fist-fight team…but there should be no way the Steelers have a winning record or make the playoffs, etc.

It’s possible, if the Steelers lose their next three games, which is possible (at GB, DEN, SEA) for them to fall to (1-5) – which causes a situation where Ben Roethlisberger is dealt to a team in desperate need and the Steelers just tank this season out with Mason Rudolph/Dwayne Haskins – and then the GM should then be fired in-season as well. Mike Tomlin should be dumped too, but he won’t be. He has the media protecting him…but his real reason for existing has been Big Ben, and as Big Ben has gone…so has Tomlin’s coaching prowess.

What the franchise has done to their own offensive line, what they allowed to happen, what they didn’t address the past few years…while they traded high picks away for a marginal safety (Minkah) and wasted their 2021 1st-round pick on a stiff running back who is more a day two, day three talent – it’s self-inflicted wounds, it’s dereliction of duty…people just awful at their jobs. Ben Roethlisberger cannot cover it up any longer. Those days are gone. We project a (6-11) season for them, as-is, right now.

The Bengals have some similar issues – they have as bad an O-Line as there is in football and wasted a high draft pick on a marginal WR (Chase) – but Joe Burrow is better than Big Ben and the Bengals now have a defense. The Bengals are going to fail ahead too – terrible O-Line = doom without a Mahomes/Herbert/Kyler/Rodgers (or prior years Big Ben) type QB to bail you out. And Burrow is not playing at their level in 2021. The Bengals will be lucky to get to 8 wins this season.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Let’s talk about Ben Roethlisberger (38-58 for 318 yards, 1 TD/2 INTs)…

I have watched a lot of Big Ben games over the years. I’ve seen him be a miracle worker playing through a leg injury he couldn’t hardly plant/stand on…but somehow he gutted it out and won games with his arm, even in a reduced state with his body. But this game right here – this was the worst I have ever seen him look.

I could forgive him for looking sloppy/troubled Week 1 vs. Buffalo (the best defense in football, arguably). I was slamming him for Week 2’s flop against Las Vegas. But between that Week 2 and this Week 3 mess…we have to say the old Big Ben is dead. May he rest in peace.

Part of the problem is Ben’s skills are eroding, but I say most of it is to be blamed on the offensive line. Ben has no time. Where the old Big Ben would have moved around, hung in to the last second and made a miracle throw…that Ben exists in his mind, but doesn’t exist in reality/on the field.

Ben looks like he’s coming to that realization – he doesn’t have the ‘it’ anymore. He’s more worried about getting hit hard than he is making miracle plays. He gets rid of the ball fast and to the first thing he sees/is comfortable with because he’s trying to get by without the world knowing he’s lost his fastball. Matt Ryan is going through the same thing. They can still make plays and have moments with the proper time, but under any duress…it’s over. Basic plays/throws look challenging.

I re-watched this game…and saw a legend die right before my eyes. Sad to see.

When QBs start to die off…they tend to lean on one of two throws: (a) the easiest, quickest one and/or (b) their favorite/trusted receiver. No more reading the field. No more spreading it around like a surgeon – it’s pre-pick the throw and hope it connects, or if you sense the danger…just dump it off to the safety valve, get rid of the hot potato.

I watched Ben die here. I watch Matt Ryan dying every week too. It all makes me marvel at what Tom Brady is accomplishing at 44.

Ben’s quick passing, scared/pressured ways affects all the related offensive weapons. Let’s go through them…

 -- Chase Claypool (9-96-0/15) played the role of Diontae Johnson this game, because Diontae wasn’t there. Consider what that means…

Ben is not changing off that usage/throw – 10+ targets all to the main BFF receiver, while the other WRs randomly starve. It’s Diontae who will be getting the heavy count of short quick throws when he is back. Meaning Diontae is a PPR WR1 as long as Ben is there and Diontae is healthy.

It means Claypool is a probably WR1 with Diontae out (JuJu got hurt halfway in so we don’t fully know what would have happened between JuJu and Claypool), but when Diontae returns…Claypool for sure goes back to his deep ball guy on the wing – where Ben throws one up for grabs to him every so often, but it rarely connects. There is no more: Ben makes a 5+ step drop, sets up, reads progressions, Claypool runs a 7-10 yard cut to the sideline timing route where Ben whistles one to him in-stride – Ben has no time for that. The pocket is collapsing three steps into a five-step drop, it’s why Ben is getting dinged for getting rid of the ball so fast. Because it’s true. It’s the only way they can get a pass off without a sack happening. Good for Diontae…and Claypool is semi-screwed (for FF) unless he makes a miracle catch or two.

For his part, Claypool was great in the Diontae role because once he has the ball…he’s a tall, 235-240+ pound man making moves. Hard to tackle. I wonder if Mike Tomlin sees it and thinks he should switch Claypool and Diontae’s roles, but Tomlin’s an offensive moron carried by Big Ben for the past decade…and Ben is comfortable with Diontae, then Diontae it shall be.

When Ben is gone…injury, trade, retire…Diontae Johnson is the must sell of the century.

Claypool’s future? As long as Ben is there, and CC is in the ‘go deep mode’ then he’s going to be Mike Williams-esque circa 2018-2020 East version – big guy, jump ball guy, no real consistency to his FF-game. Some hot FF spurts, then some lacking. We need for Claypool to keep that Diontae role, or for the Steelers to get a real O-Line for Ben (or whomever) in 2022…and I don’t know if either of those things will happen. I’m starting to worry that Claypool’s talent will go underutilized as we all complain about it for the next two years. The longer Diontae is out, the more Claypool might show he’s the better fit for the role. I love Claypool’s talent, but this Steelers thing is dying faster than I thought.

One of Diontae or Claypool is gonna thrive in 2021…the other is going to be random. Diontae has the inside track, but his constant injuries and drops might get him bounced. The moment we see Claypool in that heavy-target role WITH Diontae back (and DJ moved to the outside)…you gotta sell Diontae ASAP.

Diontae in the current Dionte role in 2021 – he is a PPR WR1. If moved to the Claypool role on the outside makes Diontae as WR3. We have a small window to operate with Diontae right now…and Claypool.

With all that said, minus Diontae…JuJu Smith-Schuster (3-35-0/4), A.K.A the worst free agent allocation of dollars in 2021, was nothing special…because he is nothing special. And Ben is using one guy heavy and everyone else at random. JuJu is mostly in the random category.

 -- Pat Freiermuth (3-22-1/5) has a role developing with Ben…trusted red zone/end zone option. Freiermuth scored a TD here, but Ben tried to get him with two other TD tosses and an inside the red zone shot. I would not be shocked if Freiermuth ended up to be Ben’s second target choice from here on in…the second best WR/TE target/output numbers…and he has like a Robert Tonyan 2020 season: 2-4 catches a game, 25-40 yards per game, but 10+ TDs.

Eric Ebron (0-0-0/3) is closer to getting cut than he is cutting into Freiermuth’s red zone action.

 -- Diontae (when healthy) is the current real throw for Big Ben. Claypool is a couple times a game heave on the outside guy. Freiermuth is going to be the TD guy. Najee Harris (14-40-0, 14-102-0/19) is going to be gamma radiated James White/Gio Bernard…the easy dump pass for Ben to stay alive. I mean, 19 pass targets for a slow running back…it’s silly. But Najee has good hands, is tall, and seems like a mismatch outside (but isn’t, really).

It’s a terrible role for Najee because he’s such a slow, non-athlete for that role. He is the worst stop-start starting RB in the NFL potentially. When Najee pauses or stops or stops to try and cut from traffic…he’s dead. It’s why his yards per carry are so low and his yards per catch is pretty weak too.

Najee has one superpower…but the Steelers are not built to utilize it. Najee will be an NFL star running straight ahead…with room/space to run. Najee with a head of steam is going to be wicked, destroying tacklers in his way. Najee trying to be agile is wicked-bad, in Bostonian terms.

At Alabama, they could blow holes wide open for Najee to trounce college students all day long. In the NFL, with these Steelers…it’s a mismatch against Najee. Get used to a lot of 15 carries for 50 yards games, but with 5-10 catches per game. Great for PPR…not so hot for non-PPR because he’s not scoring TDs because the Steelers don’t grind to the goal line area often, easily…and then they can’t block Najee into the end zone otherwise.

When will Najee be a superstar?

I can tell you when…once you tell me how long it will take for the Steelers to get a real O-Line? They need four new offensive linemen, minimum. Who’s coming to play for Pittsburgh as a free agent? Everyone is leaving, not staying. It might be 3-4 years from now before Pittsburgh has a real QB and real O-Line.

 -- Every week, Joe Burrow (14-18 for 172 yards, 3 TDs/1 INT, 5-7-0) gets a little more like the old Burrow…but still not fully there. I’d say he’s like 60-70% of what I’m used to. Workable, but not elite…not a ‘put the team on my back’ kind of warrior yet/again like he was. We got little flashes here, more than last week and more than the week before that…but we’re not all the way back yet.

Dak Prescott went through a horrible injury too, but he looks WAY better than Burrow in their recoveries. But also, the Cincy O-Line is terrible…but credit to them (and Pitt minus all their best pass rushers), Burrow had 0 sacks…and 0 QB hits on him. Wow.

 -- Ja’Marr Chase (4-65-2/5) isn’t playing bad football, but I’m not seeing any ‘wow’ this guy’s a dominant WR. He’s a fast guy with 4 TDs in 3 games…one nice bomb he almost dropped, but reached out and brought it in. Then his other three TDs were garden variety ‘on the field’ got the TD plays…two of those were underthrown bombs he adjusted to and the DBs didn’t.

It’s working, but I don’t see anything special. The targeting is pretty low. But ride it while you can…I’d trade it hot.

 -- Rookie Chris Evans (2-26-0/2) is starting to build up into a passing game/2-minute drill type option/back. He’s working his way towards being a possible Mixon handcuff, but it would be Perine-Evans right now.

If you were looking for flyer RBs to sit on hoping an injury to the starter might spring them…Evans is a name.

 -- I’ve been lauding the Bengals defense since the preseason…and here they are – the #7 PPG allowed defense in the NFL and #9 in yards allowed. They’ve not faced the toughest schedule, but it isn’t a total gimme. My eyes tell the tale…they are good. Not great, but good. Wild card playoff-worthy. It wont be the defense that keeps the Bengals out of the playoffs…it will be Burrow being too tentative with his knee/the O-Line getting him obliterated.

Jacksonville Week 4 on TNF should be solid for the Cincy DST, then trouble with GB Week 5…but then DET-BAL-NYJ isn’t a bad stretch but all on the road.

Logan Wilson (14 tackles, 2 PDs) is really stepping up at linebacker for them – 10.0 tackles per game so far.

 -- I imagine the Steelers DST will be dropped in some places this week for two reasons…

1) They’ve been beaten the last 2 weeks, giving up 26 and 24 points…and not looking good.

2) They are at Green Bay Week 4

They would be an opportunity to vulture in on them – because they looked excellent Week 1, then started losing all their key/top defenders the last two weeks…led by T.J. Watt.

The schedule Week 5 vs. DEN isn’t bad…IF Watt and the others are back. Weeks 8-9-10 with CLE-CHI-DET could be a great spot with everyone back.

But if Watt doesn’t come back, I have no interest.

Snap Counts of Interest:

76 = Claypool

66 = JWash

47 = McCloud

33 = JuJu

47 = Ebron

30 = Freiermuth

39 = Chase

37 = Boyd

27 = Tate

R.C. Fischer

FFM

28 September 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 3: Saints 28, Patriots 13

Jameis Winston played some of the worst quarterbacking you’ll see in the NFL this game, but the guy has to be the luckiest player in the NFL. Truly. Not saying that because I can’t stand him. In fact, he’s so lucky I’m starting to think I should endorse him and just glom onto it…roll with the trend/what’s working.

You want to know about this game in a nutshell, in one play? Here it is: https://youtu.be/qgYDtaeuLy4

A ball that the QB should just eat…even if he thinks the penalty is on the opponent, you have no need to risk this – Winston is hit, wrapped up, his eyes drop to the ground because he’s about to be pulled down for a sack (so he has lost sight of the entire end zone situation)…but the pull down sack attempt actually spins him back upright for a second, so (falling down backwards) he blindly tosses it to the end zone – where Marquez Callaway outfights a DB for a TD.

Aside from that play, this was a battle of coaches trying to out-run game, hide their QB’s deficiencies, and play good defense to get over the other team. The Saints have the better O-Line and defense…and more energy as a ‘team’, so they got the win…over lifeless New England.

Every week, the legend of Bill Belichick gets another round of tarnish.

What will people say about Belichick if Tom Brady returns to New England and drops 40+ points in a blowout win and the Patriots are sitting (1-3) with the season essentially over for them…humiliated by their ‘ex’ in what will be one of the highest rated regular-season games in the NFL in a long time?

We project 6-7 wins for New England, possibly 8 wins this season…because of a schedule littered with bottom tier teams (like the Patriots are). But this is not a good team. It’s not even a young emerging team. It just exists like a pickup basketball game where random players are thrown together on a team.

The Saints win and go to (2-1). This is a good football team that could win the NFC South over Tom Brady, if they didn’t have Winston – who eventually will burn the Saints with his terrible play. The Saints playoff chances are directly correlated to how long they roll with Winston when the dark times hit. We’re projecting (9-8) for the Saints right now, but any QB changes can shift this 1-2 wins.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Sean Payton is now playing to the strengths of this team: a good-to-great offensive line and a top 5 or so NFL defense. Gone are the old run-and-gun Saints. Now, it’s a heavy run game and good+ defense, protecting their terrible QB.

Winston’s passing yards in his three games with NO in 2021: 148-111-128. The Saints are #5 in rushing attempts in the NFL, however. They are also #32/last in passing attempts.

They’re hiding Winston, which makes me wonder why they even bother with him…because all he is risk waiting to happen. Unnecessary risk. They need a game manager, and they have the opposite. It’s a bold strategy. https://youtu.be/9HVejEB5uVk

Because this is the lowest volume in the NFL passing game – you’re hosed on Callaway-Deonte-Trautman…Michael Thomas (if/when he returns). All you got is a lot of Alvin Kamara (28-89-0, 3-29-1/4) and now red zone Taysom Hill (6-32-1) as a wrinkle.

Kamara is going to take way more work than he ever has…way more hits to his wiry body. Tony Jones as a hold/bet on the starting RB getting hurt…it isn’t a bad hold & hope #2 RB back of the roster guy.

 -- Mac Jones (30-51 for 271 yards, 1 TD/3 INTs) is already a better QB than Jameis Winston will ever be or has been. Jones is progressing nicely. This was the first game where I saw him really working down field with more purpose.

Mac is the current favorite in the ‘who wound up the best rookie QB in 2021’ sweepstakes.

Zach Wilson is dying in a terrible Jets offense. Justin Fields was never as good as Jones, but he’s mobile and decent…but he’s stuck in a terrible Chicago offense. Trevor Lawrence just isn’t as good as Jones, in general. And Trey Lance can’t be trusted to play QB yet in the NFL. So, by process of elimination it’s Jones as the top QB…which is going to make fans of NYJ-CHI-SF all kick themselves all offseason, but the media will only focus on Jones being a better QB than Wilson (to them). The media will cover for Fields-Lance for as long as they can.

Jones is progressing nicely, but only has so much upside with this increasingly behind-the-times coaching staff.

 -- Mac lost his #1 pass target, James White to injury…not sure how much time he’ll miss. Losing White and the Pats quick deficit to New Orleans all forced Jones to have to open it up to all his other options.

Jakobi Meyers (9-94-0/14) is the winner in that equation.

YTD Targets for NE:

29 = Meyers

18 = Agholor

16 = Jonnu

14 = J White

14 = Bourne

13 = H Henry

I should’ve put Meyers on the Three things/Five Players Waivers to trust…right in the Hunter Renfrow range as a PPR WR body that’s working. But it’s apropos I overlooked him…Meyers is always overlooked, even by me.

6.3 rec. (9.7 targets), 58.7 yards, 0.0 TDs per game = Meyers through Week 3

Meyers is the 13th most targeted WR in the NFL right now. He’s a legit PPR hopeful…lot’s of catches, decent yards, but low probability of TDs.

 -- The loss of James White springs J.J. Taylor (1-2-0, 2-3-0/2) to some life in the NE backfield. He is going to be the future James White, and the future might be now if White is out an extended period of time. Mac Jones needs/wants that checkdown option…Taylor can provide that but has nowhere near the time/experience as White.

I’m not sure JJT will get enough work to truly matter for FF just yet, even with White out. And Brandon Bolden (who led all NE RBs in snap counts this game) might get more time due to his experience.

 -- Damien Harris (6-14-0, 2-0-0/2) has not been running the ball very effectively this year. It’s either an O-Line issue, or Harris isn’t that good. This might lead to more J.J. Taylor opportunity as well.

Rhamondre Stevenson was a healthy scratch…he’s only likely to matter if Harris gets hurt. He’s getting the rookie treatment Harris did a few years ago, but in desperation – he may get the call.

But we have a ‘watch’ warning here – I think Belichick is getting frustrated with Harris. Brandon Bolden (3-0-0, 3-23-0/4) played a lot in the 2nd-half here. A more trusted pass blocker.

A lot of negative news on Harris this week – and then facing Tampa Bay’s run defense…this could kill off Harris for FF value for several weeks. You might be able to dump him on an unsuspecting RB-desperate person.

 -- The public was all over the Patriots-DST Week 3…while the Saints-DST was under 50% owned nationally.

The Patriots didn’t really embarrass Tua Week 1, and they lost the game. They got trampled by the NO run game here. Zach Wilson/the Jets handed this DST a gift Week 2…it wasn’t a super-menacing defensive performance but great output/FF stats. Outside of the Jets gift week, the Patriots defense isn’t really playing all that well…not like people think (from the past).

Consider they have played three of the worst offenses/QBs in the NFL and were FF duds in two of the games. They face TB this week, so they will be dropped in FF leagues in places. You might consider picking them up and sitting on them. Pats get HOU Week 5 and the Jets Week 7. Have one DST for Weeks 4 and 6, use the Pats Weeks 5 and 7.

You know what a really nice fit is? NE with CIN DST…

Week 4 = CINN hosting JAX

Week 5 = NE at HOU

Week 6 = CIN at DET

Week 7 = NE hosting NYJ

Week 8 = CIN at NYJ

A five-game stretch with good DSTs facing NYJ 2x, HOU, DET, JAX

 -- The Saints DST is hot…this is a really good defense and CB Bradley Roby only played 2 snaps, as they get him up to speed. If Roby ends up starting/playing heavy snaps with Lattimore and Adebo – it’s a special secondary developing.

Rookie CB Paulsen Adebo (5 tackles) is so good…he might be the real DROY, if not for Micah Parsons.

Snap Counts of Interest:

69 = Meyers

58 = Agholor

55 = Bourne

52 = H Henry

30 = Jonnu

33 = Bolden

22 = Dam Harris

10 = JJ Taylor

06 = J White

51 = Trautman

30 = G Griffin

08 = Juwan Johnson

38 = Callaway

29 = Stills

19 = Deonte

Ross Jacobs

FFM

28 September 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 3: Vikings 30, Seahawks 17 

The Seahawks jumped out to an early 17-7 lead and looked like they might run away with it, but it was all Minnesota from there. They scored 23 unanswered points and completely shut out Seattle in the 2nd half.

These are two really similar teams. Both have good QB's, a great starting WR duo, good RB, and both have suspect defenses. The Vikings are a little weaker through the air on defense, and the Seahawks are a little weaker on the ground. Neither is particularly good and it's going to hold them back. The difference maker in this game was Minnesota finally getting pressure on Wilson in the 2nd half which halted a few drives. Seattle never really got close to Cousins. I suspect both of these teams finish with somewhere around 10 wins depending on schedule and luck, not bad, probably in the playoffs but also not real Superbowl contenders.

Fantasy Notes

--Kirk Cousins (30-38 for 323 yards, 3 TD/0 INT) is on fire. He's quietly averaging over 300 yards passing and 2.6 TD's per game through the first three weeks. There are a couple of rough games through his schedule, but by and large he's going to be playing a lot of weak defenses. I'm not sure why he gets overlooked every year, but it's looking like another top 10 finish for Cousins this year. He's a great #2 QB to have right now behind Mahomes/Murray/Herbert.

--With Dalvin Cook sitting this one out, the workload went to his backup Alexander Mattison (26-112-0, 6-59-0/8) and I have to say, it was hard to tell the difference. I guess that's a little bit of a compliment for Mattison. He did look as good as I've ever seen him here. But mostly it's just that Cook has never really been all that impressive to me. Why are you paying him so much money when Mattison can do the same job? Mattison is obviously a great guy to play until Cook comes back.

--In the passing game it looks like Cousins isn't going to lean on just one or two guys. He's spreading the ball around to whoever is open. Here it mostly went to Justin Jefferson (9-118-1/11). Jefferson might be a tick or two down from his rookie season production by the time this year is over. He just doesn't look like a dominant receiver, more like another solid player in a good offense. That stat line looks nice and I'm sure Jefferson owners think everything is fine once again, but I wasn't super impressed by this performance. Jefferson wasn't dominating Seattle and it was quite surprising to see him with that big a stat difference over Adam Thielen (6-50-1/9) who I thought Cousins was looking for more frequently.

Speaking of Thielen, we might be looking at another low yardage total for him this year, but it doesn't matter because he keeps catching TD's. He's got 18 total in his last 18 games.

--Tyler Conklin (7-70-1/8) was more integrated than I've seen him before. He's not a threat to be an elite TE or anything, but he's serviceable. He's going to need the TD's to really have a useful week. Otherwise we're going to see a lot of 4-35-0 lines from him.

--I was excited to see how KJ Osborn (2-26-0/2) would follow up his breakout last week. Spoiler alert: he didn't. Osborn didn't get his first target until the very end of the 3rd quarter and only managed 2 for the game. He looks fantastic like RC said, but he's still not a major part of this offense. The RB still comes first, then Jefferson and Thielen, and finally Conklin and Osborn depending on gameflow and matchup. You can't count on him for fantasy right now but he'll likely have a few splash spots every 3rd or 4th game.

--Nothing has changed as far as Seattle's offense goes. They still want to run the ball with Chris Carson (12-80-1, 2-2-0/2) first and foremost. I don't know why, but I know that's the plan. Carroll loves Carson and thinks he's more important than Russell apparently, even when they are losing by 10 points in the 4th quarter. Carson left this game for a short period at one point and came back in the game a bit later, but then left again shortly after. There is some talk of a possible hamstring injury, but we don't have any solid information on this yet but it's something to monitor.

If you have Carson, or if you are desperate for RB production, you might grab Alex Collins (2-8-0) for a week or two. He was the only RB that took carries other than Carson and probably would get the lion's share of the early down workload if Carson had to miss time. I can't guarantee it would be worth much though because Travis Homer was running the 2-minute offense and even Penny Hart got a few late snaps.

--Russell Wilson (23-32 for 298, 1 TD/0 INT, 3-7-0) is going to have another frustrating year for fantasy owners. He just doesn't get the same volume throwing as most other top QB's and his incredible efficiency can't always make up for that. He's still a QB1 but probably closer to 12 than he is to 1.

--I warned you about Tyler Lockett (4-31-0/4) last week. Just because his first two games were huge does not automatically mean everything is fine and he's a WR1 lock every week now. This offense just doesn't pass often enough and these receivers tend to go hot and cold. Lockett had a couple of big games, then Metcalf will, and they rotate some more. It's going to be a roller coaster ride with this guy all year. Hope you're good/lucky at starting him on his monster weeks.

--Let's talk DK Metcalf (6-107-1/9). He looks fantastic. We've always known he had the body of a Greek god and phenomenal athleticism, but his struggles with route running are well documented. If all you can do is run deep then you're easy to defend. I'm here to report that Metcalf is running actual routes now, short and medium, he's making sharp cuts...he's no longer a one trick pony. 

I still want to exercise caution for two reasons however. 1) This is still a low volume passing game. 2) This game was played against a weak Vikings secondary. I think it's entirely possible though that we see Metcalf finally become one of the most dominant receivers in the league and the true #1 for Seattle. I want to see a couple more games first, but that's on the table now.

Gerald Everett (5-54-0/5) got his nice box score this week after a couple of letdown games early on. It just looked like random work though, no actual intention to get him the ball. I would still avoid this situation.

Snap Counts of Interest

54 = Tyler Conklin

30 = Ben Ellefson

72 = Adam Thielen

62 = Justin Jefferson

44 = KJ Osborn

42 = Gerald Everett

20 = Will Dissly

16 = Travis Homer

14 = Alex Collins

8 = Penny Hart

R.C. Fischer

Total Football Advisor

27 September 2021

Looking at three Fantasy notes from each game this Sunday and our five players' advisory list for upcoming waivers, trading, and deep sleepers...

Ross Jacobs

FFM

27 September 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 3: Panthers 24, Texans 9 

Yaaaaaawwnn. This was possibly the most boring game we'll watch all year. Sam Darnold vs Davis Mills does not make for riveting tv. So to help me out with this game recap I've recruited one of the color commentators from this game, Troy Aikman, to help me out.

How are you doing Troy?

I'm good. Didn't get much sleep last night so my eyes are a bit red and swollen. It happens a lot, but I'm excited for a great game of football!

Troy, the game is already over. It was last Thursday. You were there commenting on it.

Right, right, I remember. I just spend so much time studying all these players that sometimes I forget what day of the week it is.

Well those two things don't seem related, but I'm glad to hear you study every player in so much depth because I have a few questions to ask about some of the younger guys. Let's start with Sam Darnold. As everyone is aware by now, he is finally free of the clutches of the worst football coach alive, Adam Gase, and he seems to be doing pretty well. What do you think about the turnaround Darnold is making in Carolina?

I like this guy, always have. He's got great feet in the pocket and a strong arm, makes good decisions. He just needed to clean up the turnovers and you're seeing him do that. I think he's going to be a really good player.

I mean, turnovers come from bad decision making and he's still doing that but ok. He also doesn't throw many passes further downfield than 10 yards so I'm not sure about the big arm either. Do you think playing the Texans, Jets, and Jameis Winston led Saints has anything to do with his success?

No, football is football. Opponent doesn't matter. What's important is that you're playing good football and winning games and Darnold is doing that right now. I really like him.

So you said. Ok well what some of the young pass catchers for the Panthers? Can you give me a breakdown of Terrace Marshall?

I really like this guy. He's a big, strong kid, good hands. He played at LSU with his offensive Coordinator Joe Brady, so Brady is really going to know how to use him.

Well, familiarity is great I guess. Not sure I'd draft someone just because I knew them, but this coaching staff seems to do an awful lot of that. What about Tommy Tremble? He had a rushing touchdown here. That seems pretty athletic for a tight end!

Yeah, it really is. I like this kid. He's a good blocker, really loves football. That's going to help him as a pro.

Umm, ok. Can you tell me anything about his skill set and how it might translate? How does he look as a receiver to you?

He looks really good. I like him.

Fascinating. As you know, the Panthers star player RB Christian McCaffrey got hurt here and is going to be out a few weeks with a hamstring injury. His backup is rookie Chuba Hubbard, a guy that Matt Rhule is familiar with from his time at Baylor when they played Oklahoma St. There are reports that Rhule's wife was at that game and watched Hubbard run wild to help his team beat Rhule and she suggested to her husband that they should draft Hubbard. Doesn't that sound a little strange to you?

No, not at all. He's a good player. I really like him and so does the team.

Right. You've said that. But can he play? He's just an ok athlete and doesn't seem to have a lot going for him.

He ran a 4.36 40-time at his pro day. That's pretty fast! Being fast helps you be a good football player.

Actually the 4.36 times were random social media posts. Jim Nagy, the executive director of the Senior Bowl had him timed at 4.50, which is ok at his size but nothing special.

But he ran for 2,000 yards at Oklahoma St and there's not a lot of guys that can do that. I'm pretty sure all the ones that did are in the Hall of Fame now. He's a guy that I really like and I think he has a bright future.

You're kind of dense, aren't you Troy?

I haven't slept much lately. That's why my eyes are so red and puffy.

Tell me about Houston's rookie QB Davis Mills.

He's a big, strong kid with a big arm. He can make all the throws. The team really likes him and is high on him. I like him too.

I never would have guessed. He struggled a lot in the preseason. Did you see anything here to give you hope that he might be better than that?

Yeah, he really threw the ball well, made good decisions. He has a big arm. I really li...

We got it. Thanks Troy. Thanks for the commentary. You really illuminated some things for us today.

I'm going to go take a nap.

You sound like you need one.

Fantasy Notes

--Can you trust Sam Darnold (23-34 for 304 yards, 0 TD/0 INT, 8-11-2) for fantasy now? No. Don't even go there. He's played three of the worst teams in the league (well, the Saints had key defenders out for their Week 2) and has had an awesome defense helping him out. Getting short field position consistently can make even terrible QB's look good. See the Saints week 1 game vs. GB for evidence.

Now he doesn't have his best player (CMC) to take attention away, and the defense has lost an important piece as well. Luckily for Darnold the schedule is pretty light on good teams. He's likely going to have some halfway decent games this year because he gets to play so many bad teams, but against the good teams you're going to see old Darnold because nothing has really changed. Even here he didn't throw a TD and only had a decent fantasy day because he ran in a couple of short scores. Save yourself the headache and avoid him as usual.

--Chuba Hubbard (11-52-0, 3-27-0/5) will step in for McCaffrey for a few weeks and there are some analysts touting him as an RB1 for that time. You've got to be kidding me. You can't take an average RB, give him McCaffrey's workload (which he isn't likely to get because he's not McCaffrey) and expect the same results. Hubbard is nowhere close to McCaffrey. You also have to worry about the threat of Royce Freeman (5-17-0, 1-8-0/1) who is the superior back of the two, although as Troy and I discussed Matt Rhule loves him some Chuba because his wife loves Chuba and that might trump all. There's also the matter of this offensive line not being very good. McCaffrey can make that work. Not so sure about Hubbard.

Don't sell your soul for Hubbard. McCaffrey will be back in a few weeks anyways. He's just not a guy to really get excited for.

--DJ Moore (8-126-0/12) is the clear #1 WR here as I've been talking about going back to the preseason. Whatever connection Darnold had with Robby Anderson (1-8-0/2) doesn't matter now. Anderson is a speedster, downfield threat, and Darnold can barely get the ball past 10 yards. That leads to Moore getting a ton of short passes because it's the safe throw for Darnold. With McCaffrey out for a bit though we might see teams clamp down on Moore knowing it's all Sam throws. Of course, after some of the decision making I watched this weekend in other games, I'm not sure we can trust coaches to make sound, rational decisions and actually come up with a decent gameplan.

--Scratch whatever I said about Brandon Zylstra last week. He's a non-factor. Not sure why he was so involved last week, but it's still Terrace Marshall (4-48-0/5) as the #3 in title and #2 for stats at WR. Just like with Moore, Marshall plays the role of a possession receiver in the short game, and that suits Darnold much better than trying to throw bombs to Anderson. It's not going to be worth much, but it's something if you're desperate.

--Dan Arnold (2-23-0/4) is still not being used nearly enough. He's one of the most talented pass catchers on this team, but it's going to go to waste.

(Literally 2 seconds after I sent this article to RC we found out that Carolina traded Arnold to Jacksonville for CJ Henderson. That's a great, great move by Rhule and the Panthers and yet another completely unbelievable one for Meyer and the Jags.)

--The fact that Carolina was willing to part with Arnold means they are about to give Tommy Tremble (1-30-0/1, 1-7-1) significant time as a receiver. He's fine I guess. I've covered Tremble a lot going back to the draft and you could do a lot worse. He's a decent athlete overall. He's not better than Arnold, but I would trade a TE I'm using in a rotation for a young, stud CB any day of the week. Tremble is now in a 50-50 split with Ian Thomas but Thomas is being used as a blocker almost exclusively. 

For what it's worth Tremble is going to get all the receiving work at TE now. It's yet another safe throw for Darnold so it might be somewhat decent. Tremble is a favorite of Rhule's so you know they are going to push him. Being the head coach's pet is often worth more than being talented.

--Brandin Cooks is now the 5th most targeted player in the league through 3 weeks with 32 and the 3rd leading receiver with 322 yards. I don't see why that would stop seeing as teams seem to be completely unaware that Cooks is a good player and Houston's only real option to move the ball. Not sure I've seen a team actually try to cover him yet. He's going to be lacking in TD's this year but should still make a nice ppr option.

--My only other note for Houston is on Davis Mills (19-28 for 168 yards, 1 TD/0 INT). He played quite a bit better than in the preseason where he looked like an abject disaster. He did that while hanging in against a ferocious pass rush. Honestly I was quite impressed watching him work here. Maybe he can do ok after all. This team still sucks though so don't expect any miracles.

IDP Notes

--Carolina lost rookie corner Jaycee Horn for the year and that might have really hurt their chances of being a shutdown defense for the rest of the year, but they smartly went and traded for Jacksonville castoff CJ Henderson first thing this morning. This is a fantastic move and keeps Carolina's hopes alive on defense. Combined with their schedule they could easily still be a top 5 defense in 2021.

Snap Counts of Interest

45 = Terrace Marshall

19 = Brandon Zylstra

37 = Ian Thomas

27 = Dan Arnold

19 = Tommy Tremble

40 = Chuba Hubbard

11 = Royce Freeman

34 = Akins

31 = Ph Brown

21 = D Johnson

19 = Ingram

09 = Lindsay

08 = Burkhead

R.C. Fischer

FFM

25 September 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 2: Broncos 23, Jaguars 13

The Jaguars, shockingly, struck first in this game…a nice TD pass by Trevor Lawrence had the Jags up 7-0. Up 7-3, later, the Jags went for a field goal to extend the lead in the 2nd-quarter…and then Josh Lambo had an epically bad shank of a kick/miss. Urban Meyer was shaking his head in disbelief.

Then the rain started.

Then the Jags' drops of passes started (rain not helping).

Then the Broncos offense perked up.

Then it was all Broncos until a late Jags KR TD made it semi-respectable.

What’s really weird here is, you’d think this was just the Jags being bad again…and they had their head-shaking moments for sure, but for most of this game the Jags were battling with Denver. This wasn’t easy for the Broncos.

I was, dare I say, impressed with Jacksonville here. They played some good football in spurts…but then some of the bad outweighed and dragged down all the good. Denver wasn’t as strong as I thought here, nor Jacksonville as bad as I felt after watching this on tape mid-week. The tape says, Jacksonville is not a total ‘loser’ team. We’ll get into more of why I think that with the player comments.

Denver is (2-0) and tied with Las Vegas (2-0) for first place in the AFC West. Do I need to type that again to believe it? The Chiefs (1-1) are in last place. I projected Denver to be (3-0) out of the gates, on their way to the playoffs…the first leg of that prediction is about to become true…maybe. The Jets are scrappy, like Jacksonville, and might give Denver a shock if they’re not careful.

Jacksonville isn’t the complete rollover and die team I thought, at least not in this game. We’ll see if they can keep it close at all with Arizona this week.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- First things first…this was a stellar game by Courtland Sutton (9-159-0/12). He just took over this game. I’d go so far as to say if Sutton didn’t play in this game, the Broncos would have lost…Sutton was that important.

Sutton is not a random WR2…he’s not the #2 WR behind Jerry Jeudy. He is a dominant, stud #1 WR…and Teddy Bridgewater (26-34 for 328 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) knows it. This connection isn’t going away.

Sutton nearly had a 30+ yard TD to really send his FF scoring into orbit.

 -- Trevor Lawrence (14-33 for 118 yards, 1 TD/2 INTs) had terrible statistics but I thought he played a pretty good game…and made me pause from making as radical of fun of him as normal.

When you can get well-trained QBs into a 7-on-7 type groove…they can do some work. Lawrence isn’t horrible, but his flaws show when he’s under pressure. He had his bad throws here some, but he’s also let down by receiver drops too much as well.

If Lawrence has time, comfort in the pocket he can be OK. And the Jags have only allowed him to be sacked 2 times this year…2nd-best in the NFL (SF #1 with just 1 sack allowed). This O-Line was beautiful against a pretty good defense. If Lawrence gets this kind of protection and it doesn’t start downpouring in every game, and his receivers cut back on drops…he might have some decent games ahead.

He’s still not generational, but he’s well-schooled…and in the right situation he’s decent. It’s probably too much to ask for him to break through with this team as a rookie. But better days might be ahead if he gets this protection every week.

 -- Javonte Williams (13-64-0, 1-10-0/1) is such a pleasure to watch. The guy has star written all over him, but he may be splitting with Melvin Gordon (13-31-02-38-0/2) for many more weeks…maybe all season.

But if Gordon goes down…

 -- The Broncos are using two TEs fairly regularly, sometimes together, sometimes rotating, which means two things…

1) Noah Fant (4-33-1/6) has a little bit of a cap on his upside.

2) Albert Okwuegbunam (4-24-0/4) has a pulse in deep roster leagues looking for plausible TE2s. Albert O. is #16 among TEs YTD in catches (7), #18 in PPR PPG so far this season.

 -- Two useless Fantasy WRs…

1) D.J. Chark (1-19-0/4)…the wrong WR for Lawrence’s short game. DJC has caught 4 of 16 targets from Trevor this year, and most all the disconnects are not Chark’s fault. Lawrence is not a great downfield thrower…and Trevor’s real connection is with Marvin Jones (6-55-1/11).

2) Laviska Shenault (2-0-0/7) got hurt in this game and might miss Week 3…but he’s so slow in the bubble screen game that he’s becoming a wasted throw. He’ll catch passes all day long, but he just doesn’t do much with them after he catches them.

 -- Teddy Bridgewater is taking special off-field interest in K.J. Hamler (1-5-0/3), as mentor…and with Jerry Jeudy out, we saw Teddy take a couple longer shots with KJH…that didn’t connect. I have a feeling (that’s all it is) they will connect on one this week vs. NYJ.

 -- Broncos starting ILB  Josey Jewell got hurt and is done for the year. Justin Strnad (7 tackles) then took over and looked really good/ready to be the starter. I know the Broncos claimed Micah Kiser from the Rams, but Strnad has been a Fangio favorite since they drafted him. It’s Strnad’s job to lose.

 -- Josh Lambo (0/2 FGs) had been one of the best kickers in football for the past 5+ years, but he got hurt last year and this year he looks dreadful. Lambo is 0-fer-3 on FGs so far this season. His 53-yard miss in this game looked like a fan was kicking for a million-dollar prize giveaway stunt or something.

Snap Counts of Interest:

41 = JRob

14 = Hyde

53 = Fant

37 = Albert O.

53 = Sutton

51 = Patrick

49 = Hamler

41 = Gordon

28 = Javonte