2022-23 Conference Championship Round NFL Handicapping: All Picks ATS and Survivor Pool Pick
I was (5-1) ATS for wild card week, and (3-1) ATS for the divisional round. (8-2) overall ATS in the NFL playoffs so far. My regular season heat has only gotten hotter into the playoffs! I can lose the rest of the (three) games and still be 60%+ for the playoffs -- but I'm going for 75%+.
Last week I put my life on the line with SF -3.0/-3.5. This week, I take my 2x life earned and put a life on another pick…and we have been hitting that pick hard early in the week. If you were with the subscriber streaming notes, you would've been getting news/head's up on the juicy opening line to jump on. But even now…I think there's an opportunity with this one bet and it might even improve the money line etc. as we go into the weekend.
Good luck to you in your picks and betting this weekend. Here's our picks…
Wild Card Playoffs results…
FFM All picks straight up: 3-1
FFM ATS: 3-1
FFM Best Bet: 1-0
FFM Blazing Five (no TNF): XX
FFM Calling a dog for an outright win: 0-0
Chris ATS: 2-2
Ross ATS: 1-3
Chris Best Bet: 1-0
Ross Best Bet: 0-1
When All 3 analysts agree: 0-1
When both analysts disagree with my pick: 1-0, for me (none this week)
All Underdogs ATS = 2-2
---------------------------------------
2022 Regular Season YTD results…
All picks straight up: 191-88-2 (9-1 playoffs)
ATS: 162-104-5 (60.9%)…(8-2 playoffs)
Best Bet: 11-6 (2-0 playoffs)
Blazing Five (no TNF): 55-31-3 (64.0%)
Calling a dog for an outright win: 21-13
Chris ATS: 153-113-5 (6-4 playoffs)
Ross ATS: 125-123-4 (3-7 playoffs)
Chris Best Bet: 11-6 (1-1 playoffs)
Ross Best Bet: 9-8 (1-1 playoffs)
When All 3 analysts agree: 60-32-1 (0-2 playoffs)
When both analysts disagree with my pick: 31-19, for me (1-1 playoffs)
FFM Survivor: BAL(W), BUF(W), LAC(L), PHI(W), TB(W), CIN(W), KC(W), MIA(W), ATL(L), NO(W), DAL(W), SEA(W), SF(W), MIN(W), DET(L), NYG(W), CAR(W)
Chris Survivor: BAL(W), GB(W), LAC(L), PHI(W), TB(W), LAR(W), CIN(W), DAL(W), BUF(L), TEN(W), SF(W), XXXXX
Ross Survivor: DEN(L), XXX, BUF (L), GB(W), PHI(W), SF(L), LV(W), DAL(W), TB(W), KC(W), BAL(W), MIA(W), SEA(W), CIN(W), NO(W), DET(W), MIN(W)
All Underdogs ATS = 142-124-5 (6-4 playoffs)
-----------------------
Conference Finals Playoff Picks….
CIN at KC (-1.5) *Underdog outright upset*
The Computer says: CIN by 2.7 (a 4.2 spread differential)
The team that is (3-0) against KC in the past 12 months…is the underdog. The best team in football for the past 12 months…is the underdog. The team facing the team they've beaten 3x in a row in the past 12 months is facing a not 100% star QB…and are still the underdog.
You're never going to get the masses off the Chiefs no matter what. Mahomes could be declared inactive, and there would be a heavy Chad Henne support. No matter how many times the public gets suckered/loses ATS with KC…they keep coming back for more.
Fine by me.
I'll take their money.
I got a lot of Cincy +2.5 and +2.0 when this line was announced. +1.5 is still good, and the moneyline straight win at +110 is a really good spot.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: CIN
Ross Jacobs: KC
Andrew DFS: CIN
SF at PHI (-2.5)
The Computer says: PHI by 2.6 (a 0.1 spread differential)
This one is too close to call/too close to bet. In that instance, I was just going to side with the points as a 'pick' not a bet…but the Eagles keep jumping out at me, mostly because of how poorly planned SF has been the past two playoff games.
I could see the Eagles getting ahead early and SF playing too conservative, once again, and Philly just holds a 1-2 score lead all game and SF tries to open up too late to take back the lead, and never catches up – this is a tough Philly team to try and catch up on with a flurry late..
I could also see SF learning from the last two weeks that defenses are stacking the run and daring the 49ers to pass, and maybe Shanahan swerves and uses Kittle heavy, uses the outside WRs as decoys to pull the good Philly corners out/away, and also does a lot of short Deebo work like a big slot and Philly gets caught unprepared and SF gets the early lead and Philly has a hard time playing catch up on a good SF defense.
In the end…NFL teams don't change on the fly, they stick with who they are WAY too long. So, I'll play Philly over SF.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: SF
Ross Jacobs: PHI
Andrew DFS: SF
