2023 NFL 1st-round Mock Draft v1.0 (by Ross Jacobs)
#1 Indianapolis Colts (via Chi): QB CJ Stroud, Ohio St
Chicago will almost certainly trade this pick to a QB needy team. The only question is which one. I think Indy makes the most sense for multiple reasons. First, they already pick 4th and would have to give up the least to move down and the move would allow Chicago to pick 4th which would almost certainly guarantee that they get to pick one of the two elite defenders, Anderson or Carter. Second, Indy gets to jump division rival Houston for their preferred QB. And finally I believe most of the teams searching for a QB behind Indy will be more inclined to try and bring in a veteran, specifically Carolina who is widely considered one of the favorites to trade up.
Why Stroud specifically over the mainstream's consensus Bryce Young? Stroud is the superior player in my opinion and I believe the NFL will prefer Stroud as well due to his prototypical size and physical traits.
#2 Houston Texans: QB Will Levis, Kentucky
I'm not completely convinced this pick will be a QB yet, but it is a distinct possibility. I do think Davis Mills can still be an effective QB and it wouldn't shock me if Nick Caserio agrees and decides to draft Carter and forgo a QB move for another year. He could also reunite with Jimmy G. But assuming they do draft a rookie QB, Levis seems like Caserio's kind of player. A lot of decision makers will avoid Levis because of his inconsistent tape, but people capable of considering context will see a player will all the physical traits you could want, a team captain with impeccable leadership and toughness, who struggled this past year behind a shoddy offensive line and a terrible scheme with no weapons to help him. Not every team will like Levis, but some will and I don't see how he falls out of the top 10.
#3 Arizona Cardinals: EDGE Will Anderson, Alabama
Arizona will likely have their choice of Anderson and Carter and I expect they will prefer Anderson in that scenario. He plays a more important position and has no question about his character or conditioning the way Carter does. Anderson isn't a flawless prospect (his size limits him to a 3-4 OLB role and his athleticism might be a little lower than other elite edge rushers) and he would probably be a #5-10 selection in most drafts, but this year has very few players considered truly elite so he'll go top 5. He's a perfect fit with Arizona on the edge in their 3-4 scheme and will replace Chandler Jones who was never replaced last year.
#4 Chicago Bears (via Indy): DT Jalen Carter, Georgia
Many people have Carter graded as the best player in this draft (or maybe 2nd (behind Bijan) and I certainly understand why, but there are legitimate concerns with him that aren't being discussed enough yet. The two issues I keep hearing from people in the know are his conditioning and his motivation and work ethic. We'll discuss these issues elsewhere, but just know that there are questions about him no matter what the mainstream says. He won't fall far but it could be enough to push him below Anderson.
At this juncture though Chicago is happy to snap him up. If anyone can get the best out of Carter it's Matt Eberflus.
#5 Seattle Seahawks: QB Anthony Richardson, Florida
Most people will scoff at this selection, but I really do believe this is a distinct possibility. Let me explain. It is likely that Seattle does re-sign Geno Smith this year because no other team is going to want to pay a journeyman $30 million, so I think he'll ultimately be back on a 2 year deal for $20-25 million but that won't preclude Seattle from spending a high pick on a QB. Think of the Alex Smith to Mahomes transition. That's the ideal scenario and they could let Richardson sit for a year to polish up his skills and learn before unleashing him in 2024.
The second factor is that Seattle ideally won't be picking this high again. They lucked out that Denver collapsed this year, and the fifth pick puts them in great position to find a potentially elite QB. It makes absolutely no sense to pick a second tier defender instead of taking a shot on a franchise QB. Even if your rookie QB flames out, at least you tried. Finding that elite guy is absolutely crucial these days and teams should be taking every possible chance to find one. Getting a 7-8 sack per year edge rusher isn't nearly as important.
So why Richardson with Bryce, the supposed top QB, still on the board? Because Richardson has elite physical traits and an impossibly high ceiling. If I told you that a Josh Allen or Justin Herbert came out of this class you'd assume it was one of the three bigger guys, not Bryce. Also, Richardson is not nearly as raw as many are suggesting. Considering he had almost no help on offense this year and was in his first year as the full-time starter, he performed very well. Florida wouldn't even have been competitive if it weren't for Richardson. And finally, Seattle GM John Schneider has expressed an appreciation for QBs with elite physical traits. He attempted to trade up for both Allen and Mahomes in their respective drafts. I don't think he's going to pass up that chance now that it's falling in his lap.
#6 Detroit Lions: RB Bijan Robinson, Texas
Detroit's frustrations with D'Andre Swift are well documented. He isn't going to preclude them from taking a swing on another RB. Robinson also will grade out as the top player on many teams' boards despite his position, and Detroit GM Brad Holmes seems like the kind of guy that will draft whatever player he deems the best regardless of position. They want to build their offense around the run game anyways so this seems like a perfect fit. If Robinson gets past Detroit he won't make it past Atlanta.
#7 Las Vegas Raiders: QB Bryce Young, Alabama
Finally the mainstream #1 QB comes off the board at #7. The Raiders are obviously searching for a QB now that Carr's time has come to an end, and Young seems like a perfect fit for Josh McDaniels. There's the obvious Alabama connection with Saban-Belichick-McDaniels and Josh will appreciate Young's vision and anticipation. He won't mind Bryce's height like some teams will. Just look at who the Patriots drafted last, Bryce's predecessor at Alabama, Mac Jones.
#8 Atlanta Falcons: EDGE Tyree Wilson, Texas Tech
Atlanta has a huge hole at pass rusher that they'll be looking to fill this off-season. The run on QBs at the top of the draft could cause a highly-regarded player (by the mainstream) to fall to Atlanta at 8. I'm not a fan of Wilson personally, but many around the league love him due mostly to his size and length. He has some scheme versatility due to that size and can fit in a variety of schemes as an end in either a 4-3 or 3-4.
#9 Carolina Panthers: WR Quentin Johnston, TCU
I expect Carolina and Frank Reich to make a move for a veteran QB, potentially Carr, and not trade up for a rookie. It's possible but they have a long way to go and multiple teams in front of them that want a QB too. They believe they have a defense ready to contend, especially in the wide open NFC South, so the obvious move is bring in a vet and draft him some help for right now. I have some questions about Johnston, namely if he's so good why didn't he produce more in the defensively-challenged Big 12, but he seems to be widely regarded right now and theoretically provides Carolina with speed and size, the big-play threat they've been lacking.
#10 Philadelphia Eagles: EDGE Myles Murphy, Clemson
Coming off a Superbowl appearance and possible win, the Eagles have a top 10 pick. You have to hand it to Howie Roseman. Philly can do whatever they like with this pick, and a trade down is a distinct possibility, but if they stay put there's a few obvious selections and Murphy is one of them. Howie loves drafting athletic defensive linemen and Murphy is definitely that. He's got prototypical size and will light up the combine. I do question his production on a loaded Clemson line however, and his tape against Notre Dame is especially concerning. Someone will still be willing to reach on him for his physical upside though and Philly is in prime position to do just that.
#11 Tennessee Titans: OT Dawand Jones, Ohio St
You won't see Jones listed in many first rounds yet, much less this high, but I think there's a very real chance Jones rises to the top of a weak tackle class. He's a mountain of a man at 6'8”375 but is perfectly proportioned and a very smooth mover. Think of him as better Orlando Brown. I won't be surprised at all if he's a top 10 pick before we're through. He fits Tennessee like a glove. They want to be a powerful running team and Vrabel even has the Ohio St connection to get the inside scoop on him.
#12 Houston Texans: TE Michael Mayer, Notre Dame
I'm not convinced Mayer is the best TE in this class (or even 3rd best perhaps), but he seems like the kind of boring, safe, versatile pick that Caserio loves. Mayer doesn't seem to do any one thing well but he is a capable receiver and blocker. Houston hasn't had a big-name TE since Owen Daniels and this team desperately needs more receiving talent. I think Mayer fits this particular franchise's preferences more than any receiver available here.
#13 New York Jets: S Brian Branch, Alabama
This pick might be the Packers in a few days or weeks if Rodgers gets traded to New York, but for now I'm giving the Jets the top perceived safety. It's the weakest part of their roster and Branch is widely viewed as the same caliber of player as Minkah Fitzpatrick.
#14 New England Patriots: CB Christian Gonzalez, Oregon
The Patriots could go any number of directions but just about every team can use more corners and they are no exception. Gonzalez is very athletic, tough, and by all accounts a fantastic leader, worker, and student of the game. Belichick puts as much stock in makeup as he does football ability and Gonzalez appears to be an ideal fit.
#15 Green Bay Packers: EDGE Isaiah Foskey, Notre Dame
The Packers prioritize certain positions in the 1st round and edge is high up their list. Assuming Foskey checks out with the requisite athleticism he'll likely be on their short list. He checks all the boxes: good size, athleticism, production, character...I'm not a huge fan but he's a 1st round pick all day and just feels like a Packer.
#16 Washington Commanders: OT/OG Peter Skoronski, Northwestern
Washington has a ton of holes to fill but reportedly are looking very hard at the offensive line this off-season. Skoronski has been tabbed as a top 10 pick by many but I think a lot of teams won't be comfortable with him at tackle due to his size. He reminds me a bit of Jonah Williams and this seems like a good range for him. He is a perfect fit for the Commanders who value athleticism and high character.
#17 Pittsburgh Steelers: WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ohio St
Every mock is obligated to put Joey Porter here because his dad played for the Steelers...so I'm not doing that because I enjoy fun. Porter is a legit option here, but last year everyone and their mother (other than RC) was convinced the Steelers were taking Malik Willis and they didn't. Their defense really isn't that bad, but the offense was pedestrian to say the least. Let's give them another receiver. Pickens is the deep ball guy and Diontae is their possession receiver. JSN fits in perfectly as their new slot receiver.
#18 Detroit Lions: CB Joey Porter, Penn St
And just for fun I'm putting Porter as the very next pick. I'm not a fan of Porter as of yet but that may change once I dig into his tape more. He's got all the physical traits you could want and the pedigree, but I'm concerned about his lack of production. If he's that good you'd think he would get at least a few interceptions. Either way the Lions need to work on their pass defense and Porter is the kind of hard-nosed player Dan Campbell craves. Drew Sanders would make a lot of sense here as well.
#19 Tampa Bay Buccaneers: CB Devon Witherspoon, Illinois
The Bucs are in a bad spot with Brady retiring. They don't have a legitimate QB ready to take over (sorry Blaine Gabbert). The cap situation is a mess. There's no drastic holes to fill but this roster is ready to fall apart. It was built to contend the last 2-3 years in Brady's twilight. The collapse is coming. Tampa could go with literally any position here, but I'm giving them Witherspoon because two of their starting corners are entering free agency and they are going to struggle to re-sign anyone this year. A lot of people don't like Witherspoon because he's “not athletic enough” but I see plenty of athleticism on tape. He's also a ball hawk, hits like a safety, and won't back down to anyone. If he doesn't work out at corner you can move him to safety with his skillset. One of my favorite players in this draft.
#20 Seattle Seahawks: LB Drew Sanders, Arkansas
Most people are insisting the Seahawks have to draft a defender at 5, but one player isn't magically going to fix their defense. They've already thrown a ton of picks and money at the problem. That plan also assumes that journeyman Geno Smith is magically the answer to all their QB problems. He had an ok year, but tailed off hard towards the end and even then he was lucky he wasn't picked off more. The better strategy to me is to spend the fifth pick on a high upside QB and go defense with your second 1st rounder and a few of your mid-round picks. There's plenty of talent to be had. Sanders looks like he was constructed in a lab specifically for the Seahawks, a hulking, athletic inside linebacker with a surprising amount of prowess rushing the passer. He would fit in perfectly in the middle of this defense and allow Cody Barton to move outside again.
#21 Los Angeles Chargers: DT Calijah Kancey, Pittsburgh
Xavier Cromartie is right that Kancey is the second coming of Aaron Donald (or at least the closest thing we've seen to him) but if the league let Donald fall to 12 I don't see why they would take Kancey higher. He's a great player but his size will likely cause him to fall a little, just like it did with Donald. And who would appreciate Kancey more than the guy that coached Donald with the Rams?
#22 Baltimore Ravens: WR Jordan Addison, USC
This pick almost has to be a WR I'd think. They have struggled with this position for years and it's clear Lamar needs some help. Addison is a good player, how good I'm not sure yet, but he'll be a first round pick I'm sure. The Ravens love big school players in the first round.
#23 Minnesota Vikings: CB Cam Smith, South Carolina
Ditto Xavier's comments. This team just always needs a corner. I don't make the rules.
#24 Jacksonville Jaguars: DT Bryan Bresee, Clemson
I probably won't change this pick all spring and I'll be way ahead of the mainstream on it. Bresee has Jaguars written all over him. Both Pederson and Baalke love their big defensive linemen and Baalke in particular is a sucker for highly athletic players with an injury history because he thinks he's getting value. The people that think Bresee is going top 10 need a reality check. He's far too inconsistent and injured to justify that.
#25 New York Giants: WR Kayshon Boutte, LSU
This pick also feels like it has to be a WR, but a lot can change by draft day. They will almost certainly bring in someone during free agency, but I imagine it'll be a nice value veteran and not a superstar splash. Daboll wants to build this team right. Boutte isn't getting much 1st round hype right now but he was a hot name last year. He's not flashy but he is a very consistent, polished, professional receiver and will fit in perfectly with what the Giants are trying to build.
#26 Dallas Cowboys: CB Clark Phillips, Utah
Dallas could go a lot of different directions here. WR makes a lot of sense but I'm going with a corner here. They struggled at the position after injuries took a toll on their starters. Phillips is another player I really love this year. Again he's not the most athletic, but he is highly productive and simply gets the job done. I think he's the type of player Will McClay tends to gravitate to.
#27 Buffalo Bills: OT Paris Johnson, Ohio St
Yet again WR makes a ton of sense here. I think that's what the fans will want for sure. And maybe there's a good value here, but Buffalo also struggled to protect Josh Allen at times this past year. They are lucky to have one of the best 5 QBs in the league. They need to keep him safe and taking an offensive lineman would also help their terrible running game. Many people expect Johnson to go in the top 15 picks but I just don't see it right now. He's fine but to me his teammate Dawand Jones is the far superior player. I think Johnson is in for a bit of a slide and the Bills have scooped up several sliding players the past few years. It's a good fit.
#28 Cincinnati Bengals: S JL Skinner, Boise St
If Paris Johnson were to get here he would be a fantastic selection. The Bengals obviously still need offensive line help even after their spending spree last year (who knew that paying for crap linemen wouldn't fix their problem?). But Johnson just went off the board the pick before so they have to look elsewhere. Strong safety Vonn Bell is a free agent this year and very well might resign, but just in case he doesn't, Skinner would be a fantastic replacement. He's the closest thing we've seen to Kam Chancellor since...well Chancellor. 6'4”/220 lbs and hits like a truck. Skinner is the enforcer the Bengals wish they had.
#29 Denver Broncos: OT/OG Broderick Jones, Georgia
I could see Jones going to the Bengals the pick before this, but Denver is happy to have him. They desperately need offensive line help across the board to help protect Russ. If this is anything other than an offensive lineman I'll be shocked.
#30 Philadelphia Eagles: TE Dalton Kincaid, Utah
But but but...the Eagles already have Dallas Goedert! Why would they draft another TE? You mean like how they drafted Goedert in the 2nd round when they already had Ertz? Howie does this kind of thing all the time, stocking up on one position when he sees good value. The Eagles love to run two-TE packages anyways and Kincaid is a fantastic pick this late. He could definitely go a lot higher but most teams have bigger priorities than TE. Philly can afford to make a luxury pick like this.
#31 Kansas City Chiefs: WR Jalin Hyatt, Tennessee
You know it's coming and all of us Toney-holders in dynasty are going to cry. Somehow the Chiefs are going to need more WR help this off-season even after all their experimental moves last year. I'm not a huge Hyatt fan yet (that could change), but it's hard to argue with his production and raw speed. If he's still on the board here I think Andy Reid is going to see his next DeSean Jackson and pounce.
