2022-23 Super Bowl: Chiefs 38, Eagles 35 (Dynasty/Fantasy Game Report)
Time for the Super Bowl extravaganza report to cap off the 2022-23 season. We're going to discuss the game, the players…and also, we'll be critiquing some of the commercials and the halftime musical act, etc. This report is usually 5,000+ words, befitting of the season finale…and hopefully content you can get paid by your work/company to secretly read while on the clock. *Final check…it's 7,500+ words…enjoy!
So many notes. So many 'things' going on for an event like this…my report will be a stream of consciousness/mess of notes and observations. It will be a whirlwind…like this game was.
I first have to say, as I started typing this intro minutes after the game ended, I'm on a natural high. Why? Because we pretty well cleaned up nicely with our betting and props on this game -- a great way to cap off my best year handicapping the NFL, regular-season and playoffs. My main bet here was KC for the outright win/moneyline…and it was a bit of a cliffhanger, but our ship came in. The other prop bets (all player-based props), I'll touch on as many as we can as we go through the player section.
As for the game itself, if you think I'm going to go through and pick apart this game for key moments and belaboring/questioning play calls, etc., you're at the wrong place. We're going to discuss player performance and Dynasty/Fantasy ramifications, betting outcomes, and poking fun at some of the commercials -- there were a hundred micro-things that could've taken this game in another direction.
Either team could've won. There's no obvious grand champion here…both teams are really good, and worthy…and the Cincinnati Bengals with all fully healthy O-Line, or a 49ers team with not-Christian McCaffrey at QB could've beaten either of these teams as well…or lost to them. It's just one game at a moment in time…let's not get all weepy about it.
We all should walk away from this game knowing both teams were arguably the best two teams in football, they played an exciting game that was a great watch…it just so happened that Kansas City got the ball late, got helped by a terrible referee call on the final drive, and that helped them ice the game. KC was not clearly/obviously the best team here…nor was Philly. They were both worthy. KC got the win. Cincinnati knows how it feels, Philly.
Also, how ridiculous was this game being played on shipped in special grass and it forced the players to slip all over the place? We still don't know who the best team would've been on a neutral/clean field with normal/great field conditions because there were two opponents for each team Sunday: the other team…and the s#!**y field conditions.
Winner this day = KC
Tough luck loser this day = Philly
Stupidest entity/ridiculous operational planning this day = the NFL. For the abject awful field conditions they devised, putting players at risk of injury, and for the halftime 'show' (that made the field worse afterwards)…but we'll get to the halftime commentary at the halfway mark of the next section.
Looking ahead, post-game…
Philadelphia is set to be a top NFC team again in 2023…they won't pull a 'Rams' collapse' follow up season. Dallas, NYG, and Washington are nowhere near as good. The 49ers are their only real threat…and the Detroit Lions, possibly. The NFC is weak (compared to the AFC), and Philly is 'their (current) Daddy'.
Kansas City is set to be a real dynasty. That's not an original thought, but I want to discuss beyond just seeing Mahomes at quarterback and two Super Bowl titles in the last 4 seasons. The three lesser discussed things they have going for them…
#1 is obvious…the league wants KC/Mahomes to succeed. He is the NFL poster boy, right or wrong, and that comes with advantages -- like Peyton and Brady were afforded. It is what is. Being oblivious to it doesn't help…but it's not as bad as some want to make it (the boogeyman for all things that go wrong for KC's opponent). It's something, not nothing.
#2…players/free agents will continue to want to go to KC to win titles…especially those at the ends of their careers. A built-in edge/advantage for the next 5-10 years.
#3…all the young talent the Chiefs drafted on defense in 2022, has made them a very solid, very deep…and it being cheap/non-top 50 player contracts mostly. KC's young depth is a great support system for Mahomes and friends to keep doing their thing. KC's 2023 team will be WAY better than this 2022 title team…way better on defense and at WR. We'll discuss the defense more in a bit.
Before we crown KC too hard for 2023…
What if the BUF-CIN regular season game actually played out…and the outcome of that ended up setting off a domino effect that affected Kansas City NOT being the #1 seed?
What if the Bengals closed the deal with under a minute left in the AFC Conference title game a few weeks ago…and suddenly we would have seen the Bengals in back-to-back Super Bowls, and being discussed as the possible new dynasty? It was this close from happening…now it will be forgotten.
If KC and Cincy were on equal footing after 2022, organizationally…well, then those three things I mentioned above -- they all tilt to KC pushing ahead to the future. The league is pro-KC. Free agents will see KC as more desirable than Cincinnati. The Chiefs have acquired more young talent going forward than the Bengals. If Cincy is going to steal the reins back -- they will have to do so through #3...drafting young talent from the 3rd-round on. Not easy for teams to do.
Before I wrap the intro section…I'll give kudos to the NFL for two things, but I think the 'kudos' actually belongs to Fox (network)…
1) That was a great opening promo/lead-in to the game…that opening montage with Bradley Cooper narrating that looked back at Jalen Hurts' travails (benched at Alabama, etc.) to get here, and Darius Slay (told he was dreaming too much of getting to the NFL), and Devonta Smith (too skinny, ACL tear), and Isiah Pacheco (overlooked at Rutgers coming out of the draft), and Mahomes (could've gone to baseball over football, among other things). It was short, sweet, and pertinent…and inspiring to anyone chasing a dream. It told a story, quickly, without beating it to death.
2) Greg Olsen…and the other guy on commentary. They aren't great or anything, but the other guy (Kevin Sullivan) is very solid and together they don't get in the way of the game much at all and they make themselves a non-factor. Just them not being Tony Romo (the single worst TV analyst in football, who thinks he's a standup comedian now, but he's incredibly unfunny) or not being super-annoying 'pusher' of his son getting a TV job he doesn't deserve and 'pusher' of his PFF brand, Cris Collinsworth (there goes my PFF future employment hopes) or not being incessant 'I've always liked this guy' (that he says about every player who just made a positive play in the game, and usually racks up 10-15 "I've always liked this guy' statements per game) Troy Aikman -- was a HUGE win for me/mankind.
It's refreshing to listen to the game analysis and to not be annoyed by the analyst's idiocy and treating us like we're dumb…when they're the dumbest people in the room (via the TV) when I watch with my FFM analysts and friends. Thank you, Fox. Good job booth crew.
Now, let's get to the players…and commercials…and halftime analysis…
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- I love that this game started with a short Jalen Hurts (27-38 for 304 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 15-70-3) completion…a quick prop win (UNDER 10.5 yards) that I bet day of the game, thanks to Bet The Close Podcast's Chris Bilello…and rational/data given to the subscribers via the betting streaming note page we had open for them all post-season.
I then lost that quick gain (thanks to Chris :) right back when Patrick Mahomes completed his first pass way over 10.5 yards.
-- The Eagles got the ball first and drove right down the field for a TD. Jalen Hurts rushed for one of his 3 TDs on the day to get the party started.
It's cute that the football media is all infatuated with Hurts now and are trumping up his benching at Alabama (which they should). But what they aren't mentioning…
1) Shouldn't Nick Saban be criticized for giving up on Hurts for Tua, in retrospect? They DO say, "…and remember, Hurts got benched at Alabama in the title game!” They DON'T say, "…and remember, Hurts got benched by NICK SABAN.”
The media kisses up/protects big name college programs to continue to have access to information and steak dinners. I don't really like steak, more of a burger guy…so, it doesn't matter to me. But it's a little disinformation or deflection of the full story that should be told in total truth every time it's brought up -- Alabama didn't bench him, Saban did.
2) EVERYONE who 'knows' football hated the 2nd-round pick of Hurts by Philly…then they spent two years concocting trade scenarios for a QB for Philly to land (like the great Deshaun Watson), and/or begging for free agent QBs to be signed by Philly to replace Hurts, and/or mock drafting QBs to Philly every draft season to replace Hurts -- it was a cottage industry for 2+ years of trying to replace 'no good' Jalen Hurts.
Now look at where Hurts is at. You could argue Jalen Hurts is the best all-around QB in football now. He's not the best passer. Just the best creator of offense…the toughest guy/QB to shut down in the league due to his runner-passer abilities. And he's THEE best Fantasy QB going into 2023, no?
If he's not the #1 in the league and in fantasy…then tied with Mahomes…or right there with/very close to Mahomes?
…and if your reaction to that statement is 'no way'! Then I'd argue for you to be careful you're not allowing the media hype/overexposure to Mahomes cloud your decision. The same media that thought Hurts was a joke are guilty of the same thing Saban did -- they tried to 'cancel' Hurts, so THEY are NEVER going to say Hurts is the best QB weapon in the game -- because it shines an ever brighter light on how WRONG they all have been on him. They're all in the Saban boat. Hurts was and is ultimately more talented than Tua…football got it wrong for about 3-4-5 years. Remember 'Tank for Tua?' That aged well.
The general news media spins things the way they want. Why wouldn't you think the football media does the same? Their spin affects fan thinking of events. I point it out so we don't get spun…or we're going to miss opportunities in Fantasy or Betting.
COMMERCIAL BREAK: One of the first commercials, in-game, we got treated to was the new Guardians of the Galaxy movie trailer. Who was hoping/needing to see a third installment of this? The trailer was uninteresting and not-funny. The demo for this movie must be 'what might 7-to-9-year-olds think is funny?' Can anyone explain to me how Dave Bautista is now in every movie?
How hard can acting be if aging professional wrestlers are the top box office actors? Hulk Hogan was born too soon…he missed out being our generation's Leonardo DiCaprio, apparently. His role as 'Thunderlips' in Rocky III just missed out on an academy nod, probably.
Then, not too soon after I watched this commercial/trailer, I see freaking John Cena starring in another movie. How? Why? Fast-and-Furious X? There's 10 of these things? Can a 'car' win the Best Actor Oscar this year? Between the car action in this Fast and Furious trailer and in the new Transformers movie trailer -- the current American cinema has devolved into every movie either having an aged professional wrestler in it or cool car chase scenes…or both. How did Brock Lesner lose out to Christian Bale for a spot in Ford vs. Ferrari?
The number of Fast and Furious movies I've seen in my life is equal to the amount of catches/yards Marquez Valdes-Scantling had in this game…zero.
-- A thought hit me on the very first play offensive of the game for KC, an Isiah Pacheco (15-76-1) run play…
It's the Super Bowl, and I am sitting here watching a 7th-round rookie actually starting, on purpose for the Chiefs. What a journey it has been with FFM on Pacheco…
1) We scouted and statistically graded Pacheco near the top of the 2022 RB draft class -- a tight grouping of Hall-Allgeier-Pacheco at the top. Everybody agreed with Hall at the top…but the scouting industry mocked me for Allgeier-Pacheco right there with them, as they do every year that I dare convey something radically different from their lockstep hive mind scouting. It's over a decade later, and I still get shamed every year as some wingnut who just says contrary things to get a rise…not that I'm an actual radically good scout/dutiful observer of football things, with a track record to at least listen to what I have to say/see what I see in my studies.
When I went on FF podcasts to talk about this 2022 rookie RB class and to discuss these claims, they were met with shock and intrigue…but not taken too seriously by the hosts -- I could claim that Pacheco was a shock top guy or sleeper, that was OK…but saying he was as good, potentially better than the holy Breece Hall? Well, that was a bridge too far.
The most important attribute in NFL draft scouting…by actual NFL scouts, GMs, and general football media -- how many people agree with said 'take' on a player. Dissention is heresy. It's why they are so randomly right/wrong every year about scouting things. Groupthink and peer pressure rules the NFL still to this day.
You can see my Pacheco scouting report, pre-Draft, what I was saying about Pacheco, for free on our website…just search his by name and 'scouting report' on our homepage and you'll find all reports with Pacheco involved. I put a version of his official scouting report out for free, which I usually don't do, but there was such interest in what I was pushing on Pacheco during the summer I thought it would be easier for everyone who had heard me on a podcast for the first time to read it and make their own decision.
2) Pacheco was a big part of our Dynasty Rookie Draft strategy in the early summer of 2023. You could get him all day long from rookie pick #45 on, and many of us did and not only did it pay off for use in the 2022 season…but we're set for the FF future. While most Dynasty GMs are disinterested in the 3rd and 4th+ rounds of their DRDs…we've turned it into a great ROI area of the rookie draft.
Many FFMers now have the best Fantasy RB for 2023 from the 2022 RB class…and got it for the price of near-nothing. In August, Pacheco started taking off up the boards and cost some a bigger price -- but even the increased price turned out to be a bargain.
What DRD gems will we/FFM come up with in 2023? Stay tuned. It's a process. Your support helps us do all the digging, all the scouting and analytics to set the better-than-our-league mates Dynasty Rookie Draft strategy. 'They' use 'free' rookie scouting articles online from people who can't/don't put in the full, deep work. It's a full time endeavor…not a part-time fanboy exercise. Thus, Isiah Pacheco was missed in plain sight…by the analysts and then (even worse) by actual NFL scouts, who many times are even worse at seeing talent, because they are very much locked into the hive mind and clutching onto 'big school' prospects they get pushed to promote.
I can prove to you they're already going to be wrong again in 2023 (what else is new) because they (almost) ALL think Bryce Young is the top offensive player/QB in this NFL Draft, right now, and that he will be the first offensive player picked. He won't be. He's not in the top three of QB prospect talent this year…but they all think it now. This time last year they were arguing over Matt Corral or Malik Willis or Sam Howell or Kenny Pickett or (for some) Carson Strong as the #1 overall pick. Also, Bijan Robinson is not the best RB prospect in 2023…not even close, but he will probably go as the #1 RB taken in the NFL Draft. Go for the ride with FFM this draft scouting season and I'll tell you why…and find you the proper alternatives at a much higher hit-rate.
In the end, I don't want them to get right/religion on guys like Pacheco. We want THEM to take the mainstream sucker plays and leave us unencumbered to take 'our guys'…like Tyler Allgeier and Isiah Pacheco, etc.
3) Full credit to Andy Reid here on Pacheco. Not the scouting…they may have just been blind-lucky. I mean, they waited until the 7th-round…it's not like the Chiefs personnel department was in white hot pursuit. But however it happened, Pacheco landed in KC -- but credit to Reid that he saw the talent early and didn't suppress it to stay behind an inferior RB like Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Most NFL head coaches/organizations will waste time with or go down with the ship on their draft invested legacy RB (like what Philly did a lot with Miles Sanders the past season, as an example)…and keep a 7th-round pick guy on special teams all year and 'bring him along (too) slowly'…aka 'they don't want to admit a scouting error on the high draft pick guy'.
Reid not only pushed Pacheco to an early role…and had him starting in the rotation by like Week 2-3, but KC also didn't go out and try to do their usual 'go get a veteran back' option that they could've easily done. No LeSean McCoy sightings this season. They stuck with Pacheco-McKinnon, who are wholly more talented than CEH. And they kept Ronald Jones as an insurance chip and didn't try to force RoJo or justify his payroll.
It's a little thing…but a big thing that KC pushed and stuck with Pacheco. Most teams won't use their more-talented backup RBs until injury befalls the protected starter…like UDFA Jaylen Warren having to sit on the sidelines too often to watch heavily draft-invested RB Najee Harris runs to nowhere.
4) My biggest player prop bets for the Super Bowl surrounded Pacheco…OVER 67.5 yards rushing (an alt. line with better payout) and OVER 75+ yards combined rushing and receiving. Pacheco reeled off a 24-yard run on his second touch of the first series, and I thought…this bet is in the bag!
Then KC proceeded to NEVER possess the ball in the middle of the game and my Pacheco props started looking like trouble. But late in the game, almost as a thank you hug specially made for me -- Pacheco surpassed the 67.5 yards rushing, and then right down to the wire/the last couple offensive plays of this game, Pacheco crossed over to his finishing total of 76 yards rushing, and none receiving, beating the combo prop line by one single yard.
Thank you for the 2022-23 Fantasy and prop profits, Isiah…looking forward to many more to come!
5) Isiah Pacheco WILL be the lead back of the Chiefs in 2023 (barring injury). Clyde Edwards-Helaire (memba him?) will not. You remember CEH? Top RB taken in the draft and beloved by all the experts…taken well ahead of clearly-the-best RB in that draft, Jonathan Taylor?
I have said for two+ years now…CEH is going to be a Cincinnati Bengal someday (because he won't be KC's future), to re-team with Joe Burrow. I think CEH will be on the move in 2023, for sure…but I doubt it will be to Cincy. No way KC gives their biggest rival in the NFL an angry back to use against them somehow.
Once CEH hits free agency in 2024, then we'll see him work his way to Cincy to be part of some RBBC…as Joe Mixon moves on and Samaje Perine starts to age out.
Actually, one of the best things KC could do for itself is subvert the Bengals by dropping that CEH turd in the Cincy punch bowl…infecting Cincy from within.
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COMMERICIAL BREAK: Who cares about seeing another Indiana Jones movie? But we're getting another installment, whether we like it or not. These 'Indy' movies were decent/fun (but retrospectively awful) back when the quality of movies and TV overall were highly suspect and by and large, not even close to the overall quality of TV series of this modern era.
Notice, I said compared to TV from this era…I didn't say 'movies of this era'. Movies, by and large, have gotten, oddly, worse during this golden age of entertainment. Our movie options are…we either get a millionth superhero iteration movie option every month or a reboot of old 'classics'…like Indiana Jones. I wonder which pro wrestler is playing Indiana Jones in this reboot? Sami Zayn could probably pull it off.
-- And then there is another media-beloved RB who was always overrated and who is flopping fast into his free agency…Miles Sanders (7-16-0, 0-0-0/1).
I wonder what NFL sucker team is going to fall for this overhyped media sensation RB in free agency? Jacksonville…don't do it…I know Doug Pederson has a history here…don't do it…you need a real RB to be your lead in Jacksonville, and push Travis Etienne to cut weight and become a satellite back, but I warn you, don't do it…don't sign Sanders to a medium-sized free agency deal, not in this era of the cheap/interchangeable RBs.
They're gonna do it, aren't they?
Five years ago, Miles Sanders was a good-not-great athlete at the RB position…but we scouted him as a very weak technician running the ball/reading holes. He was lucky enough to play behind a great O-Line in Philly…and still mostly was mediocre or underperformed/flopped. His big scouting attribute for the mainstream back in his draft was: '…was the backup to Saquon Barkley for a few years, so he must be good (somehow)!'
Sanders was a good athlete at RB years ago, a 4.4+ runner…which was pretty solid a few years ago but is now 'slow-ish' with today's modern college athletes at running back. The NFL is being flooded with RB prospects with Sanders' same or better speed times and they're available up and down the draft, and after the draft in undrafted free agency. You'd rather have 7th-round pick Isiah Pacheco as your lead back over Sanders this very day.
Sanders was SO good, SO key to Philly plan here that he was effectively benched after his first carry here. I don't know if any football analysis of this game will point this out. I assume not, except local Philadelphia/Eagles-centric reporting, because it was subtle.
Sanders took his first carry off tackle, saw that the lane was kinda congested, and then instead of just following it through for a yard or two, and live to fight another day, he tried to kick it outside and started going backwards and then got popped and coughed up the ball (out of bounds). We then saw Kenneth Gainwell in the game for several snaps, taking over as the new lead-ish RB. Eventually, Sanders got sprinkled back in but with no real effect and taking a back seat to Gainwell.
The Eagles starting RB in 2023 will be FF/Dynasty attractive working behind that O-Line…and that RB is likely doing workouts in prep for the 2023 NFL Draft right now.
COMMERCIAL BREAK: Finally, I saw a movie trailer that seemed kind of fresh/interesting…the Affleck/Damon movie around the creation of the 'Air Jordan' and building of the Nike empire. Of all the movie trailers we saw, that one I'm actually looking forward to…when it hits one of the streaming services for free about six months after it's out in theaters.
My personal goal is to never see another movie in a movie theater again. I love the movie theater ambiance and presentation…it's the surrounding other moviegoers/people that ruin it. My big screen TV at home has better clarity and better sound control, more comfortable/spacious seating, and cheaper/bottomless drinks. The same way I'd sell Super Bowl tickets if I had them, and just watch the game from home…a way better game viewing experience.
-- I think one of the hidden keys to this game for KC -- the usage of rookie defenders CB Joshua Williams (4 tackles) and LB Leo Chenal (6 tackles, 1 sack).
While overrated rookie CB Trent McDuffie (5 tackles) was getting burned often…the better rookie CB Joshua Williams played a small chunk of snaps in this game and was blanketing/taking away A.J. Brown (6-96-1/8) and DeVonta Smith (7-100-0/9) for the most part. We also saw more rookie LB Leo Chanel in the game early more than normal and he played a solid game as well.
Joshua Williams, Leo Chanel, and Jaylen Watson were not top 100 draft picks from 2022…but they played a key role in helping KC win this game -- if not for anything but to allow KC to rotate defenders due to their depth…a depth Philly doesn't have anywhere near what KC does. Could it be why the Eagles only scored 11 points in the 2nd-half, but gave up 24 points…and lost? It's the little things.
Oh, and Joshua Williams is in that same Sauce Gardner, Tariq Woolen vein of tall-reach-speed gifted cover guys who are going to be the new frontier of the NFL. For IDP purposes, if you play with a number of IDPs -- you want Williams not McDuffie going forward.
Again, KC is now so set up to surpass the Bengals as 'the Dynasty'…and this 2022 NFL Draft was the turning point…the other turning point was Andy Reid actually pushing them, not suppressing the rookies, to where they contributed in the Super Bowl.
COMMERCIAL BREAK: I will say this about the Super Bowl commercials at large…this was arguably the best year for well-written, well-acted, well-executed commercials in probably the history of the game broadcast.
For all the money companies spend on ads for the Super Bowl over the years, the vast majority of the ads are completely moronic. But this year we got a handful of really smart, funny ads befitting this grand stage. Will Ferrell's commercial was very sharp and funny…and the Steve Martin-Ben Stiller Pepsi series of commercials were quality as well. There were plenty of swings and misses at funny over the entire game of commercials, and we'll get to one or two of them in a moment…but I at least wanted to give a thumb's up for not all of these Super Bowl ads playing to the lowest common denominator.
-- Right before halftime, Patrick Mahomes got tackled from behind and had his already-injured ankle landed on/twisted up…and he started limping heavily, and I thought all my KC moneyline win bets were about to go down the tubes.
Nope.
Once again, Mahomes shrugs off this hindrance and plays like it doesn't faze him and leads a comeback victory…complete with him making a huge escape/run late for 20+ yards. He is truly stunning.
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HALFTIME
Well, first off, I have to say…the halftime musical acts are never for me. There has never been an artist announced for the Super Bowl ever that I was like, 'Oh, yes! I can't wait to see them.' So, I get that this halftime event is not for me…but it is for 'others', and that's fine. I force myself to watch it to comment on it…and I hope to be presently surprised…but I almost never am.
Secondly, I have to comment that this halftime show was a $#!# sandwich of awfulness for me…and for many of you. A sandwich, in its simplest form is bread-meats/content-bread. The meat of halftime is the musical act…and we'll discuss the taste of that in a moment, but the bread here was stale rotten garbage. The bread being the Fox football analysts.
You could not find a worse collection of people to get your football news, analysis, and/or opinion from than Terry Bradshaw and/or Michael Strachan and/or Howie Long and/or Jimmy Johnson. Who among us awaits with great anticipation what any or all of them collectively thinks about what has happened so far or what they think is going to happen next? Yet, we're pushed this collection (for years now) as some kind of experts to start the halftime and to wrap up the halftime. It's insulting.
What Amazon has done for a football analysis panel in their first attempt on their Thursday night package is 100x better than the drivel CBS and Fox has given us for a decade+. It's insulting that Fox pushes us this group year-after-year. Every Fantasy player I know, and for sure every serious bettor I know…knows more about football things than this collection of bloated, overpaid, understudied ex-players.
Actually, I'm happy about them continuing to exist…please, keep them in place for another decade -- as a Fantasy and Handicapping profit-seeker, I need the public to continue to be suckered by these people.
OK, Rihanna…
Again…not my jam, but I get she has some hits for some people. I was bored the entire time of her performance. My only comment on her performance is another NFL management criticism…
When you let the NFL be in charge of something not on-the-field/the game play itself…it's likely to get screwed up. The NFL only needed to make sure the actual field itself was in good playing condition (hard fail) and to make sure we get a solid, family-friendly halftime show (soft fail).
I'm not a prude, but can the Super Bowl event, including the halftime, just be a family friendly or neutral event for a few hours respite away from the nonstop hyper sexualization and degradation of people pushed onto TV screens…especially that being shown to our young people, especially young females? My wife teaches 5th-grade and what the kids, especially the young girls, are exposed to and what they are dabbling/engaging in and having to deal with at such a young age is appalling and sad. Can we just have a five-hour break from all that and just enjoy a stupid football game?
Nope.
First song chosen to sing from Rihanna was the delightful ditty: "Bitch Better Have My Money.” It's so classy that if you go look up the Rihanna song list for her performance here, they won't display the full word/letters for 'bitch' (it's displayed as "B---- Better Have My Money.”. You are not mature enough to see the word in full display, but it can be the lead song of the halftime show thrust onto our younger children. Great.
The NFL thinks it's so cutting edge by pushing females playing football in a commercial, which is fine, but in reality it will go over about as well as the USFL or the WNBA, but they wanted to send a positive message about female empowerment, which is great/fine -- but then they show Rihanna for 15 minutes humiliating herself trying to be 'sexy'?
I wanted to see how talented/good Rihanna might be in this halftime show, maybe she would surprise me? And she responded with "Bitch Better Have My Money,” followed by 10+ other songs that sounded all the same, all while she worked in some touching of herself provocatively that came off as less 'sexy' and more 'I have a wedgie I'm trying to low key pull out'.
We also got a few moments of shaking her ass at us…you know, like how all the talented vocalists need to do. Her rump shaking efforts came off less 'sexy' and more 'my dog slow humping a pillow awkwardly'. We also got lyrics of her proclaiming people want to see her naked as well as some stripper chants/chorus refrains in there as well. Classy. Oh, and we find out you're pregnant during this performance…WHILE degrading yourself visually and lyrically…why what a strong, independent woman you are.
So, which is it NFL? 30 seconds of female football playing empowerment or 15 minutes of some lady that thinks she has to touch her privates over the top of her giant red mechanic's overalls to cover up her pregnant body…and to cover up her lack of singing ability?
I guess I won't be getting NFL or Fox writing or football analysis work anytime soon. It's OK, I can't compete with the quality analysis of Terry Bradshaw anyway.
Halftime over, back to the game…
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-- Everyone was buzzing about what condition Patrick Mahomes would be in from his ankle re-sprain before halftime and with the extended halftime to let the injury set in even more.
No problem.
He was just fine and went through the Philly defense like it wasn't there in the 2nd-half.
And mostly the Eagles defense wasn't there. One of my betting-on-KC premises was two-fold on the Eagles D:
1) The Eagles D really shutdown bad/weak QBs most all season…but the defense was mediocre or semi-struggled with better/good QBs. So, I thought they could be penetrated by the likes of Mahomes here.
2) The Eagles D had not faced ANY elite QBs in the 2022-23 season, including the playoffs, so facing arguably the best QB of our lifetimes…it was likely to be an issue…and it was. They really could not stop Mahomes…only keeping him off the field via their offense worked…and they never sacked him or made it uncomfortable much at all.
The top sack team in the NFL (PHI) couldn't get to Mahomes to rattle him. They aren't alone in being a defense unable to do that.
-- An aside about the pass rush issue for Philly…and it's a rant I've been on lately, and it's something the NFL analysts aren't even thinking about…nor will they because they are wholly enamored with 'edge rushers'.
I think 'edge rushers' are maybe the most overvalued commodity to chase outside of running back. In the end, edge rushers can't get to the great QBs enough to disrupt them…and when they do get to a pressure or sack, it's only 2-5-8x a game, leaving 50-70 other plays where they are a waste of time. I'd rather have a great pass rush rotation and scheme led by a uber-strong CB group, then rely upon Chase Young to put his head down and charge the backfield fruitlessly 90%+ of the game…not only fruitlessly, but fruitful for the opponents who can work through the wide-open gaps these head's down backfield charging edge rushers leave in their wake of trying to speed around their blocker.
The leading sacker in 2022, for either team, was a guy who was considered too small to be a pass rusher (Hasson Reddick) and was drafted highly TO BE MOVED, SIGHT UNSEEN, to be an NFL day one starting NFL middle linebacker. That experiment failed…and he was picked up off the free agent bargain bin by his old coach in college (Matt Rhule) and allowed to be a pass rusher again.
The NFL never learns…or learns very slowly. They will chase the big-name-college pass rusher prospect du jour in the 2023 NFL Draft while ignoring any talented options who are under 6'2”. When has the 'big name pass rusher' paid off in recent years? Clowney…Garrett…Young…the first Bosa…Travon Walker…are their defenses ever elite and their teams going to the Super Bowl? Nick Bosa is really good, but SF would've been better served with an elite CB or O-Linemen and a cheap rotation off the edge.
Will Anderson cannot be the top pick in this draft, on this theory…it's foolish, especially with how more important the QB-CB-OL positions are, and the great options available there in this draft.
COMMERCIAL BREAK: The two worst commercials I can recall, from a 'supposed to be great' perspective…
1) The M&M thing with Maya Rudolph is an embarrassment. She wants to bring chocolate covered clams to market…get it!!! How irreverent!
I'm all for being irreverent to make a splash, if it's funny/effective -- but this is a waste of Rudolph's comedic talents…and doesn't the concept start to work opposite of what the candy people hope? I was traveling all weekend and when I was stuck in a hotel for a few hours Saturday, and before bed I flipped on the TV just to have something in the background…and I found the old (not that old) TV show 'Man v. Food' and I left it on and got sucked in to watching him travel around and show us and consume all these local food delights/creations.
I was watching him do a pizza segment and then subsequent pizza eating challenge…and then suddenly I so wanted a pizza right then and there. My brain was stimulated seeing the food.
So, on the M&M clams thing…honestly, all I can think of now is those clams in M&Ms and it repulses me and makes me NOT want regular M&Ms. It's taken away my desire for M&Ms. Good job advertisers! How do they not figure out it's working against them?
Why do M&Ms need to be advertised anyway?
2) I heard about the Gronk field goal thing earlier in the week and thought it was supposed to be a live event that would be a spectacle. It was a spectacle alright…
It was a taped commercial that was totally lifeless…and mentally childish/simple, just like everything Gronk is involved with.
I see Gronk, off-field, on my TV, and think -- who has any interest in this idiot doing and speaking about anything? Everything I've ever seen or heard him do is 'dumb'…when not playing tight end, where he was great.
The NFL sees Gronk, and they swoon to push him onto the public in commercials and for football analysis. Why? Because the NFL thinks we're idiots, at our core. And, unfortunately, for the majority of 'fans'…they are probably right. So, they are 'listening' to their fanbase…by and large.
I'm glad I'm not in their fanbase. I'm a fan of betting on them and trying to make a profit off them. Outside of that, I do not care what they are saying…especially, the likes of 'Gronk'. His commercial WAS. THE. WORST.
-- We all keep marveling at 'how does Travis Kelce (6-81-1/6) continue to be so wide open all the time?' I don't know…he just is.
Instead of us asking ourselves, "Why isn't Kelce considered a top 5 Fantasy player/value, in all formats?” We instead go to our most primal fear…the worst thing that could EVER happen in all of Fantasy Football personnel management…we block out what we see, and TELL ourselves, "He's so OLD, he's gonna succumb to age any week now!”
We've been telling ourselves this for 3-4 years now on Kelce (and others). Are you gonna tell it to yourself again in the 2023 season? Yep. Why? Because he's even CLOSER to the doomsday age-clock hitting. Nothing is worse, apparently, than investing in a player when they hit their aged declining years.
You'll bust routinely on reaching for a rookie in a draft, you'll brush it off as 'dems da breaks'…but the mere thought of getting an older (whatever that means anymore) player when they hit their wall -- that happening is beyond the pale. It must be avoided at all costs! You know who is a great, young, majestic TE? Kyle Pitts. He is WAY more athletic and much younger than Kelce. How's that working out? I can tell you from my own stupid firsthand experience in too many redrafts in 2022 -- it's not working out too well.
This 2022 summer report (below) changed the way many of our subscribers played the FF game in 2022. Others rejected it…the fear of a player aging out or being older/injury prone is too powerful. It's one of the most ahead of its time FF strategies and contrarian counterculture works I've ever done: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/1869-2022-rc-ruins-everything-1-rc-ruins-your-player-injury-fetish-redraft?highlight=WyJhZGFtIiwicnVpbnMiLCJhZGFtIHJ1aW5zIl0=
Can't access it unless you're a subscriber. Sorry.
This is like…my job. ESPN isn't hiring me for silly money, especially after that Rihanna rant…and I don't want to be anyone's writing employee anyway, I've turned it down over the years. I am the employee for our subscribers of a like mindset trying to profiteer off this football stuff. We provide more football material/time consuming it in a week or month or year than you'll utilize on your streaming platforms for entertainment -- if you're really serious about this football stuff…Fantasy, the draft, handicapping, etc., stuff…then we're worth the cost per entertainment/education minute.
-- I had been lightly prop betting Skyy Moore (1-4-1/1) and Kadarius Toney (1-5-1/1) anytime TDs throughout the playoffs…finally it paid off…only I didn't play it this Super Bowl, because I was tired of losing on them the last few weeks. NOW, they both hit scores.
Perhaps, you recognize the talent/upside of Skyy and Kadarius…and are bored by MVS-Juju. Me too. I daydream of the day when Skyy-Kadarius are ruling Fantasy Football with Mahomes.
But how should we consider the Chiefs just won a Super Bowl, basically, without much help from Skyy-Kadarius (one target each)…and with plenty of Juju? We think it would be cool with Skyy-Kadarius, but KC has no such concerns…Mahomes makes everything work.
COMMERCIAL BREAK: Commercial of the Year for me…the Breaking Bad chips commercial. It was so pitch perfect on the dialogue of the characters. I was amazed Madison Avenue came up with such a thing. Then I learned they got BB creator Vince Gilligan to do the shoot…and that's the smartest thing any company has done in the history of advertising on the Super Bowl -- don't hire the tired, over-book educated, but devoid of actual human reality ad firms, rather hire proven talented people and let them come up with the concepts.
-- What did you think of that late game PI call on James Bradberry? Had that call not been made, KC likely settles for a field goal while leaving a minute+ on the clock for Philly, who would still have a timeout or two to work with…and the game may have ended in a totally different way.
Who knows how it would've finished without that DPI call. My takeaway from it is…
The NFL referees allow prison rape to happen to receivers in the final two minutes of games, especially the final minute. But, suddenly, here in this giant spectacle contest -- they feel compelled to make a very touchy call here with under two minutes to go? It's not that it wasn't technically a DPI…it was the fact that is out of the refs norm.
Two Super Bowls in a row have been swung by crappy DPI calls in the red zone very late in the game. This controversial ref DPI call event is also coming off the KC-Cincy penalty festival (against Cincy) the game prior.
Is it real…this ref favoring KC thinking? Is it really an issue? I don't know. All I know is…you were smart to take the points with KC the last two weeks.
-- Patrick Mahomes won the MVP, and you can't really complain about that. I would have voted for Jalen Hurts…but Mahomes was right there too, coming through with a hurt ankle in-game. I bet a cool $1 e-bill on the prop of the QBs to NOT be the MVP. Instead, taking out a basket of $1 bets on the long odds for 'any RB' or 'any WR' or 'any TE-DE-CB' to win the award.
I donated $5 on that one.
That's all folks! That's the Super Bowl, and the end of the 2022-23 season.
My work has just begun. It's full scale NFL Draft scouting, grading, analytics, ranking…for the NFL Draft and for Dynasty Rookie Drafts. I have Dynasty player reviews to publish. We also have free agency to analyze. We have the draft itself. We have the 2023 schedule release to look for NFL futures bets on win totals over/under on teams…then our 2024 NFL Draft preview/Devy reporting over the summer. Before you know it the training camps and preseason games will be upon us.
No days off in football analysis. I'm here to study it and report out on it all, everyday all offseason. I hope you'll join us!
