RC's daily streaming notes on football, and other, things going on this week...
7/5 SUN
(7:03amET)
Today/tomorrow
-- The month of June was Draft Guide prep and reporting season...it has trickled into July. July 3 was the 1.0 version release. A bunch of updates and add ons coming this next week and the rest of the offseason and preseason.
-- Faux 2.0 Computer Simulated Season -- AFC and NFC Championship games play out, then the Super Bowl final Monday.
-- The latest TST video dropped Friday on Tyler Shough’s 2025 tape scouting.
Wednesday we discussed our scouting Jacory Croskey-Merritt’s 2025 rookie season.
-- Miscellaneous reports on things that come my way and more scouting reports to come. I have a backlog of them to get published already.
--------------------------
NEW DISCORD NOTIFICATION SYSTEM/INVITE: FFM Discord Notification System
This is not a chat room. It is a one-way channel for FFM notifications about newly posted items and critical breaking news.
This Week’s/Month’s Agenda…
-- DRD rankings will now update rankings and add/update commentaries, etc., every THU or FRI for the rest of the preseason.
-- Dynasty and Best Ball rankings audits/updates weekly +/-.
-- Holy series QB and RB done. Holy RB Handcuffs underway (on hold for draft, since we’re this close)
-- Full scouting reports on various prospects from now until the NFL preseason. Deeper looks at Cyrus Allen and more all on deck.
-- Any FFM News & Notes or Special Reports during the day as I get them.
-- New coaching staff hire’s analysis series...trying to slot/schedule this. Once the Draft Guide is set, I hope/plan to turn to this.
== NEWS & NOTES & Xs ==
-- I took the day off Saturday for the 4th. Got celebrate it with my son, who surprise-visited us for the weekend. Because there really is no football news this weekend, I’m gonna share the bizarre (good) way I celebrated my 4th.
It’s such an odd collection of things I would do this day -- I guess this is what life would be like if I didn’t have 12-16 hours of football work per day and 100+ hours of projects waiting for attention behind that.
Here is the odd collection of moments I had with my son and wife on the 4th. I want to chronicle it, so I have it as a captured memory for the future.
I got up at 5amET to start my day because when my son surprised us coming into town Friday night...we all went out to a late (for me) dinner. What did my son want for dinner? Mexican. So, I had a giant Mexican feast at 730-8pm...and I usually eat dinner at like 4pm and stop eating around 6-7pm for the day. So, this was late...and I paid for it with a bad night’s sleep/early wake up. So, I went into the backyard with a cup of coffee and listened to our birds that we feed all waking up and coming down to eat and drink (we are lucky to have some cool, old trees in our backyard so it’s become a bit of a sanctuary in the backyard). Suddenly, with age I guess...I love watching and listening to the birds in my backyard at daybreak. It’s so peaceful.
I also got up early because we had made a plan to, of all things, play tennis at 7am before it got to 100+ degrees here in NC. I haven’t played tennis in 20+ years. And ‘playing tennis’ for me is a light volley back and forth with my wife 1-2x in our lifetime together. I have never formally played tennis...but was a good racquetball player at one time.
Why tennis at 7am? My son has suddenly become smitten with the sport since he moved to an apartment complex that has nice, empty tennis courts in the community and he and his wife hit it around a bit. He started taking lessons as a beginner and everything, and he’s obsessed by it. But my son has no one to play with outside of some stuff at his lessons. So, he wanted to desperately hit the ball with us...so we obliged...not having played in 20-30 years.
So, 7am off to public courts we hoped were empty...and they were. And my first attempt to hit the ball...well...it was not good. I don’t realize how much muscle I have lost on these cancer meds...until I need to do something athletic...or walk up 2-3-4 flights of stairs at a hotel. On the first attempt to hit the ball, I felt like I was playing with a 100-pound knapsack on my back (AKA my gut...I’m gaining a ton of weight on prednisone, which is to help me combat the side effects of the hard core meds--but I get the side effect of weight gain). I felt like I was moving in slow motion, even though my mind knew what it needed to do. I also felt like I had zero leg muscle, so I felt as if I was playing tennis on the deck of a ship at sea. I was about ready to quit...depressed at how ‘out of it’ I was on the first couple attempts.
But then I started to get it together and get comfortable not trying to do too much...just hitting when it came to me and not trying to fly around to get to balls. I started getting a decent stroke of the ball down and my son was shocked at how well both me and my wife were hitting it despite having not picked up a racket in decades.
We played for about an hour, working up a nice sweat...and then it started getting oppressively hot and we called it quits. A nice workout. I went from no tennis playing for several decades to an hour of it...we put in some decent work--hitting backhands, etc.
Once we were done it hit me--I did not warm up or stretch or build up to this, I just went out and started playing tennis as best I could without being a total maniac. All my muscles used for this event...I haven’t been using them. Guess how I feel in my shoulder and arm and wrist and hand as I write this many hours later? But we had a blast, so it was worth it.
Then we went back home and watched...Wimbledon. For no reason...but it was on and having just played tennis, it made sense. We got really into this women’s match that was a back & forth and was ultimately an upset. How did this happen?
We finished watching that upset and then took off for my favorite Italian restaurant that had a huge Tennis store nearby. We feasted on great pizza...we were the only ones in the joint, a huge/nice place, and our usual server was there to tend to us. It was a $45 ticket, but I left a ceremonial $25 tip and scrawled HAPPY 250TH in the signature part.
Off we went to the tennis store...which was listed as open, but we drove up to it to find it was closed. Thus ended my overload of tennis day.
Getting up after 4-5 hours of sleep...playing tennis...chasing around town...I was wiped out. The meds usually lead to a midday nap for me no matter what...and I need sleep for recovery and the cancer battle--so I went home and laid down and took a nice 3+ hour nap to celebrate my independence.
We went out to quick fast food dinner. Came back to watch TV and hang out, and we ending up watching an ESPN 30-for-30 on a baseball topic that I thought my son would be interested in since he is starting to like pro baseball now too. It was on the summer of 1998, a documentary about the McGwire v. Sosa HR record year. Two hours of a documentary that even my wife got into. I never imagined I’d spend July 4th watching a McGwire v. Sosa doc, but it was all new for my wife and son...so it was fun watching them enjoy/be engaged in it. And I had fun reliving old times.
Playing Tennis, watching Wimbledon, and watching a McGwire-Sosa doc. I never would have guessed that’s how my day was gonna be...but it happened, and I’ll never forget it.
And this is how we capped off the night...me tuning over the Astros game, that I had given up on because they were losing 7-2 early, but I looked at the score about to go to bed and saw it was 8-8 in the bottom of the ninth. And then this happened: https://x.com/MLB/status/2073591909281337484?s=20
No steroids here.
I think.
== QUOTES & QUOTABLES (pulled from an internet A.I. search, I try to make sure it’s accurate but some of it is ‘trust in AI’) ==
-- Sean McVay change (and everyone else about to TRY TO follow): https://x.com/RyanPaganetti/status/2073195786104459586
-- ESPN’s Fantasy football sleepers, busts and breakouts for 2026: https://www.espn.com/fantasy/football/story/_/page/FFSleepBustBreak26-49030808/fantasy-football-2026-rankings-nfl-sleepers-breakouts-busts
I put this on here to see what the masses are saying, for opposition research. I’m gonna break this report down.
10 personalities picked sleepers at each position. I think this will be a reveal as to where the mainstream will push current ADPs when they get back to work.
Here’s their most picked options (out of 10 picks):
SLEEPERS
QB = Justin Herbert (40%). Tyler Shough (20%)/Jaxson Dart (20%)...all others 1 vote.
RB = Etienne (20%), Jon Brooks (20%), and Gainwell (20%)
WR = Matt Golden (20%) and Wan’Dale (20%)
TE = Likely (30%) and Kenyon Sadiq (20%)
Top Two Sleepers: Herbert then Likely.
BUSTS
QB = Matt Stafford (40%), Jaxson Dart (20%) and Patrick Mahomes (20%)
RB = Josh Jacobs (20%)
WR = Malik Nabers (30%), Mike Evans (20%), Davante Adams (20%)
TE = Trey McBride (30%) and Harold Fannin (30%)
BREAKOUTS (one vote for 10 analysts, any position)
Omarion Hampton (40%)
Everybody else got one vote
I’ll discuss this piece more this week, because I find it fascinating ‘THEIR’ minds.
Your moment of Zen for this day...
-- https://x.com/CryptoOnlyCoims/status/2073416059504181627?s=20
-- https://x.com/EpicClipVault/status/2073461433572974648?s=20
-- A 20+ minute watch if interest, an expose on the ‘Rise and Fall of PFF’. https://youtu.be/XB4exBrTl6g?si=h23_b-kXk30zHa-5
== Daily Series ==
New daily series coming in a few days, maybe after July 4th weekend. Let’s take a quick break and celebrate America 250!
I think the next one is gonna be a ‘best WR group’ tourney, or best ‘receiver group’ tourney (to include TEs).
----------------------------------------------------------
*How to sign up for our monthly or annual access: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/total-football-advisor
*Draft Guide season access $29.99: https://ffmetrics.com/draft-guide/draft-guide
*How to get the free FFM App and FAQs on how to use: https://ffmetrics.com/5663-how-to-get-the-free-ffm-app
*Our Betting Subscription offering (including private Discord chat access): https://ffmetrics.com/betting/betting
=====================
7/4 SAT
(6:30amET)
HAPPY 250th AMERICA!
Today/tomorrow
-- New Faux 2.0 Computer Simulated Season wrapping up over the weekend.
-- Next TST video dropped Friday on Tyler Shough’s 2025 tape scouting.
Wednesday we discussed our scouting Jacory Croskey-Merritt’s 2025 rookie season.
-- The month of June was Draft Guide prep and reporting season...it has trickled into July. July 3/today, 2nd-half of the day projected 1.0 version release.
-- Miscellaneous reports on things that come my way and more scouting reports to come. I have a backlog of them to get published already.
--------------------------
NEW DISCORD NOTIFICATION SYSTEM/INVITE: FFM Discord Notification System
This is not a chat room. It is a one-way channel for FFM notifications about newly posted items and critical breaking news.
This Week’s/Month’s Agenda…
-- DRD rankings will now update rankings and add/update commentaries, etc., every THU or FRI for the rest of the preseason.
-- Dynasty and Best Ball rankings audits/updates weekly +/-.
-- Holy series QB and RB done. Holy RB Handcuffs underway (on hold for draft, since we’re this close)
-- Full scouting reports on various prospects from now until the NFL preseason. Deeper looks at Cyrus Allen and more all on deck.
-- Any FFM News & Notes or Special Reports during the day as I get them.
-- New coaching staff hire’s analysis series...trying to slot/schedule this. Once the Draft Guide is set, I hope/plan to turn to this.
== NEWS & NOTES & Xs ==
-- Draft Guide version 1.0 dropped Friday.
I’m taking Independence Day off. No work. My son surprised us coming in to celebrate today. Will post an item at best today, most likely. Then back to some work Sunday. Back to normal Monday.
I want to celebrate the 4th by declaring Independent from work. A true day off AT HOME (not travelling) is incredibly rare anymore. I’m gonna try to soak this day up with my son.
I want to enjoy this day and just have fun and relaxation celebrating America. I’m so grateful as I get older and look at where my life is at and where my life has come from...none of this should have happened...I shouldn’t have been blessed this much...I had a rocky/rough start, but it wasn’t horrible, and no one thought, mostly me, that I’d ever amount to anything. Sure, I got things to complain about it along my journey--but being born in the United States to start off with is such a massive advantage to having a great life overall.
My cancer battle being treated by the latest, high tech equipment and medications in an A+ facility with A+ people like they have at MD Anderson (and there are all kinds of great hospitals across our country)...covered by insurance that we pay a fraction of the true cost for--only in America...the MD Anderson Cancer Center is thriving from its patients and donations from businesses, philanthropists, and ex-patients...they’ll do it for free if someone truly can’t afford it. This is America...we build the best, our people chase excellence like no other because we have a system that allows it to happen...we (the people...collectively), by and large, give back in all kinds of ways...and no matter what kind of start you get from where you are born or to what family, if you’re reasonably healthy and able--you can change your life, your fortunes, your ‘circle’ through persistence, hard work, and freedom to try to be whatever you want/can be.
Sure, we (the USA) got some flaws...but if you think we have ‘issues’, you should go live in the 2nd-best country on the planet. We ain’t so bad. I don’t see anyone rushing for the door to leave...but they sure want to come here. We ain’t so bad.
On behalf of my paternal grandfather who just missed taking a lethal bullet to the head by less than 6 inches in a foxhole in WWII...just six inches to the left and I never exist, all because he signed up to serve his country forgoing a college football and basketball scholarship -- I am grateful to him and for my country that my grandfather was ready to die for and all the good that most of the people in our country’s present and history do/did to help others around them and try/tried to make the country and the world a better place. I am thankful for all my family members over the decades who served and fought to preserve and allowed to have what we have today...warts and all.
I am thankful for all the members of the FFM community...especially those who have been with us for 10-15+ years now without a hitch, through COVID...through everything...THANK YOU!!! I hope you get to enjoy this day the best way you know how/want to/are able to.
May God Bless you and may God Bless America...today and for another 250 years!
== QUOTES & QUOTABLES (pulled from an internet A.I. search, I try to make sure it’s accurate but some of it is ‘trust in AI’) ==
-- Cardinals’ Trey McBride says team has no fans in sad admission
-- The Matt Miller GoFundMe campaign has been “paused”
-- Mark Sanchez’s criminal trial remains on track for July 13
-- The Athletic’s Sam Warren reports Kirk Cousins “took all of the first-team reps in offseason practices.”
Your moment of Zen for this day...
-- So it begins: https://youtu.be/5l8Ftmp6QQc?si=lBU_WCHF5cLuzBI8
-- D-Day: https://youtu.be/RIIN0Ug8wg8?si=Jmc-P98do1YCxuDc
-- You won’t believe the mid-video ‘interviews’ but aside from that...what an amazing spirit: https://youtu.be/YwSJMUYvJKQ?si=IpmRrEwjKS_KU5VS
-- The Dream: https://youtube.com/shorts/tMPlF_Q8Pk8?si=qElhWx8gyAcbUd9t
-- Tear down this wall: https://youtu.be/Ts3KzfIYVmQ?si=gwohRnQixChiCOBC
-- It falls: https://youtu.be/xR5JjkDG45o?si=h11BkzF8XQZ7k5w-
-- You were born for this: https://youtu.be/tdmyoMe4iHM?si=01TAfIfGF7CjJPBF
-- Do you believe in miracles: https://youtu.be/aJ6itnbs7Yg?si=ob4o_Iju3Rrq8sWx
-- Can do spirit: https://youtu.be/ry55--J4_VQ?si=jO6C2KY7Eyeot9wo
-- One of the game changing inventions: https://youtu.be/_NE1hp_uDT0?si=yqRXMzleEtanw14L
-- Washington1: https://youtu.be/JYqfVE-fykk?si=LODPbbiRT5pg3KP2
-- Washington2: https://youtu.be/VJ62EfUKI3w?si=xBY9__Li8DipYCP2
-- A real American: https://youtu.be/lZcQZTOeSLc?si=et0ZkKs0OjuBnbf9
-- https://youtu.be/BFVe2vKhwRw?si=aSSCHV0QeazfiQx6
== Daily Series ==
New daily series coming in a few days, maybe after July 4th weekend. Let’s take a quick break and celebrate America 250!
I think the next one is gonna be a ‘best WR group’ tourney, or best ‘receiver group’ tourney (to include TEs).
----------------------------------------------------------
*How to sign up for our monthly or annual access: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/total-football-advisor
*Draft Guide season access $29.99: https://ffmetrics.com/draft-guide/draft-guide
*How to get the free FFM App and FAQs on how to use: https://ffmetrics.com/5663-how-to-get-the-free-ffm-app
*Our Betting Subscription offering (including private Discord chat access): https://ffmetrics.com/betting/betting
=====================
7/3 FRI
(7:25amET)
Today/tomorrow
-- New Faux 2.0 Computer Simulated Season wrapping up over the weekend. A multiple day series a few weeks of seasonal results at a time. Running through the end of the month.
-- Next TST video drops today. If you’re subscribed to the channel you’ll get notified instantly when it drops.
Wednesday we discussed our scouting Jacory Croskey-Merritt’s 2025 rookie season.
-- The month of June was Draft Guide prep and reporting season...it has trickled into July. July 3/today, 2nd-half of the day projected 1.0 version release.
-- Miscellaneous reports on things that come my way and more scouting reports to come. I have a backlog of them to get published already.
--------------------------
NEW DISCORD NOTIFICATION SYSTEM/INVITE: FFM Discord Notification System
This is not a chat room. It is a one-way channel for FFM notifications about newly posted items and critical breaking news.
This Week’s/Month’s Agenda…
-- DRD rankings will now update rankings and add/update commentaries, etc., every THU or FRI for the rest of the preseason.
-- Dynasty and Best Ball rankings audits/updates weekly +/-.
-- Holy series QB and RB done. Holy RB Handcuffs underway (on hold for draft, since we’re this close)
-- Full scouting reports on various prospects from now until the NFL preseason. Deeper looks at Cyrus Allen and more all on deck.
-- Any FFM News & Notes or Special Reports during the day as I get them.
-- New coaching staff hire’s analysis series...trying to slot/schedule this. Once the Draft Guide is set, I hope/plan to turn to this.
== NEWS & NOTES & Xs ==
-- Draft Guide publish week, this week...for America’s birthday.
We’re dropping it today ASAP...midday to sometime in the evening.
-- HEADLINE: The Athletic’s Nate Atkins believes Rams WR Konata Mumpfield “could be the primary backup on the perimeter” if WR Puka Nacua or WR Davante Adams miss time.
I mean, I guess. If the big guns miss a week or two, I’m sure Mumpfield gets on the field. If any of the main WR duo goes down with a long-term injury, you gotta know that McVay will pull something out of his arse and acquire Justin Jefferson or Randy Moss will come out of retirement or something.
And if you don’t think Tyreek Hill is going to be signing here midseason when he’s cleared...where else is he gonna sign? You get an instant Super Bowl ring practically signing with this Rams all-star team. And Hill will still be knocking the rust off this year, so why not have a nice year taking direction, playing part-time, filling a role and not having to carry an offense by joining with the league’s most visible team?
The two new CBs. Myles Garrett. Aaron Donald will likely return. Tyreek could go here. Every veteran who gets cut for salary cap purposes is gonna go here on a cheap/lesser deal to be part of this show. A super team for 2026 is developing here potentially. It’s gonna be ‘cool’ to be a Rams fan. All the Chiefs fans of the past few years are headed West, for the show. This story is only beginning. Wait until you see the players they accumulate. You might see Joe Mixon here for RB depth. I think this is Tyreek’s #1 landing spot. When Aaron Donald announces his return, then a bunch of dominoes will fall/head to L.A.
-- HEADLINE: ESPN’s Kris Rhim reports that when Chargers QB Justin Herbert threw in team drills during mandatory minicamp practices, “the results were uneven.”
I’m starting to get a touch nervous here... So many changes in LA. ‘Mike McDaniel Gone Wild’ is starting to really annoy me...it’s like he’s the head coach now...it’s gone to his head. He’s trying to change Justin Herbert...it could lead to Herbert taking another step, or McDaniel’s career as a guru goes down the tubes for ruining this situation.
-- HEADLINE: Terrion Arnold’s attorney Harvey Steinberg said Arnold has already been contacted by three teams and is expected to sign within 30 days.
I find that hard to believe.
I’m sure some team/s have reached out and said they’d be interested pending more investigation. No team can sign this guy at this stage of the story.
== QUOTES & QUOTABLES (pulled from an internet A.I. search, I try to make sure it’s accurate but some of it is ‘trust in AI’) ==
-- Former 49ers and Redskins GM Scot McCloughan gives a warning to the Commanders about Brandon Aiyuk: https://x.com/Coach_Yac/status/2072775467199811648
-- Missouri Attorney General Catherine Hanaway is opening up an official investigation into ESPN’s Matt Miller https://x.com/PolymarketBlitz/status/2072771288930844986
-- U.S. Soccer Team win in Round of 32 draws 33.5 million total viewers, on average
-- Jeremy Fowler of ESPN reports that Deshaun Watson has shown noticeable physical improvement this offseason, with people inside the organization saying he looks like a more mobile, athletic quarterback again.
-- Trey McBride: I don’t know about Week 1, but Carson Beck has a chance to be a guy
-- Jahan Dotson thinks the Falcons will showcase him like the Commanders and Eagles didn't.
Your moment of Zen for this day...
-- https://x.com/ShooterMcGavin/status/2072502450167124288?s=20
== Daily Series ==
New daily series coming in a few days, maybe after July 4th weekend. Let’s take a quick break and celebrate America 250!
I think the next one is gonna be a ‘best WR group’ tourney, or best ‘receiver group’ tourney (to include TEs).
----------------------------------------------------------
*How to sign up for our monthly or annual access: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/total-football-advisor
*Draft Guide season access $29.99: https://ffmetrics.com/draft-guide/draft-guide
*How to get the free FFM App and FAQs on how to use: https://ffmetrics.com/5663-how-to-get-the-free-ffm-app
*Our Betting Subscription offering (including private Discord chat access): https://ffmetrics.com/betting/betting
=====================
7/2 THU
(7:25amET)
Today/tomorrow
-- Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings update tonight.
-- New Faux 2.0 Computer Simulated Season wrapping up over the weekend. A multiple day series a few weeks of seasonal results at a time. Running through the end of the month.
-- Next TST video drops Friday. If you’re subscribed to the channel you’ll get notified instantly when it drops.
Yesterday we discussed our scouting Jacory Croskey-Merritt’s 2025 rookie season.
-- The month of June is Draft Guide prep and reporting season. July 2-3 projected 1.0 version release.
-- Miscellaneous reports on things that come my way and more scouting reports to come. I have a backlog of them to get published already.
--------------------------
NEW DISCORD NOTIFICATION SYSTEM/INVITE: FFM Discord Notification System
This is not a chat room. It is a one-way channel for FFM notifications about newly posted items and critical breaking news.
This Week’s/Month’s Agenda…
-- DRD rankings will now update rankings and add/update commentaries, etc., every THU or FRI for the rest of the preseason.
-- Dynasty and Best Ball rankings audits/updates weekly +/-.
-- Holy series QB and RB done. Holy RB Handcuffs underway (on hold for draft, since we’re this close)
-- Full scouting reports on various prospects from now until the NFL preseason. Deeper looks at Cyrus Allen and more all on deck.
-- Any FFM News & Notes or Special Reports during the day as I get them.
-- New coaching staff hire’s analysis series...trying to slot/schedule this. Once the Draft Guide is set, I hope/plan to turn to this.
== NEWS & NOTES & Xs ==
-- HEADLINE: Jaguars promoted Shane Waldron as their pass game coordinator/assistant head coach.
I am not a fan. I don’t like this. I keep getting this bad feeling about the Jaguars this season, and I cant totally put my finger on it...but this doesn’t help me go the other direction. I remember/know Waldron best for part of the staff that was the ‘ruiner’ of Caleb Williams in Chicago his rookie season.
Here’s a quick snapshot of Waldron’s career...
Shane Waldron — Career Bio & Commentary
Born August 17, 1979, Portland, OR. La Salle Prep, Phillips Academy, Tufts (tight end/long snapper, 1999–2002). Built a coaching résumé largely on the McVay tree and Belichick roots. The successes: he was part well-regarded staffs, earned promotions, and got OC gigs. The failures: his two OC tenures produced mediocre to bad results, especially the Bears fiasco.
Chronological Jobs & Comments
- 2002–2003 – Operations Intern, New England Patriots
Grunt work. He helped prep game plans and playbooks. Won Super Bowl rings in 2003 and 2004 (as ops assistant). Good for learning, zero responsibility for results.
- 2004 – Operations Assistant, New England Patriots
Handled special teams quality control, oversaw weekly game plan completion. Still a behind-the-scenes role. Winning a ring here doesn’t reflect his coaching ability.
- 2005–2007 – Graduate Assistant, Notre Dame
Under Charlie Weis. Helped with special teams, evaluations, coaching line. Notre Dame went 9-3, 10-3, then 3-9. Mixed. The 3-9 year was brutal.
- 2008 – Offensive Quality Control Coach, New England Patriots
Re-hired by Belichick. Helped implement offensive system. Good learning, no play-calling.
- 2009 – Tight Ends Coach, New England Patriots
First real position coach role. Patriots went 10-6, lost in wild card. No standout TE production. Serviceable.
- 2010 – Wide Receivers Coach, Hartford Colonials (UFL)
Short-lived UFL team. Team went 3-5. Low-level, minor league, not a highlight.
- 2011 – Offensive Coordinator, Buckingham Browne & Nichols School (HS)
High school coordinator. Step down, but kept him in coaching. Shows resilience.
- 2012–2013 – Recruiting Coordinator / Tight Ends Coach, UMass
UMass went 1-11 both years. Awful. Hard to blame him, but no success.
- 2014–2015 – Offensive Line Coach, UMass
Promoted within a bad program. UMass remained bad. Not a résumé builder.
- 2016 – Offensive Quality Control Coach, Washington Redskins
Back to NFL grunt work. Team went 8-7-1. No impact.
- 2017 – Tight Ends Coach, Los Angeles Rams
First job under Sean McVay. Rams went 11-5, won NFC West. Good year. TEs were functional.
- 2018 – Passing Game Coordinator, Los Angeles Rams
Promoted after Matt LaFleur left. Rams went 13-3, reached Super Bowl LIII (lost to Patriots). His pass game coordination was part of a top-5 offense. Big success on paper.
- 2019 – Passing Game Coordinator / Quarterbacks Coach, Los Angeles Rams
Added QB coach duties. Jared Goff regressed, Rams went 9-7. Mixed.
- 2020 – Passing Game Coordinator, Los Angeles Rams
Rams went 10-6, lost in divisional round. Offense was 11th in DVOA. Decent, but not elite.
- 2021–2023 – Offensive Coordinator, Seattle Seahawks
Hired to replace Schottenheimer. 2021: 7-10 (Russell Wilson’s final year, offense struggled). 2022: 9-8 (Geno Smith revival, offense ranked 9th in scoring — his best year). 2023: 9-8 (offense dropped to 17th in scoring). Overall: 25-25 record. Never cracked top 10 in yards per attempt. After he left, Seattle’s offense immediately improved to 2nd in passing yards per game in 2024. Verdict: mediocre OC tenure, clearly not the driver of the Geno success.
- 2024 – Offensive Coordinator, Chicago Bears
Disaster. Hired under Matt Eberflus. Bears ranked 30th in total offense and 24th in scoring at the time of his firing after nine games (4-5 record). Caleb Williams looked lost, pass protection was awful, and the scheme was predictable. Fired mid-season. Worst job of his career.
- 2025 – Pass Game Coordinator, Jacksonville Jaguars
Currently in a reduced role under Liam Coen. TBD. Likely a last redemption shot.
Bottom line: Waldron was only noticeable as a McVay lieutenant. But as a play-caller (Seattle, Chicago), he failed to lift the offense, and the Bears tenure was an unmitigated disaster. He’s now back in a coordinator-adjacent role. He may get another OC shot, but his track record says “qualified assistant, not a leader of an offense.”
-- HEADLINE: Texas Tech QB Brendan Sorsby will not pursue further litigation against the NFL and instead will focus on his entry in the 2027 NFL Draft. The NFL, NFLPA and Sorsby combined to reach a settlement wherein Sorsby resolves any claims on the league not holding a supplemental draft in exchange for being eligible for the 2027 draft with no additional discipline for any prior conduct.
Sorsby took his best deal...a year off to prepare for the draft...faces no discipline otherwise. Could’ve been worse.
I will take him off today’s DRD update.
-- HEADLINE: The Athletic’s Jon Machota believes Jaydon Blue is “the ideal fit” to be a complementary option to Javonte Williams.
Analysts are so into Jaydon Blue it makes me laugh. It’s OK to have hope in him but I know none of them really understood what the problem was last year which just shows how little actual scouting they do, and even those analysts that watch a bunch of games didn't/couldn’t pick up on what I picked up on right away in the preseason.
Scouting is an art...and it’s long hours and dedication to craft. Not the other thing you do after/around fantasy basketball, hockey, and baseball season.
I don't think Jayden Blue’s issues are fixable, per se... He's just not a ‘football player’; he doesn't have that burning desire and he’s very uncomfortable on the field seemingly constantly worrying about getting hit. Maybe something will snap in over time, but it was really bad last year.
Oh, and Blue is not the ideal fit at all to work with Javonte. I could see someone saying he's a hopeful or useful potential peace but saying the ideal fit is ludicrous. Phil Mafah is a better and tougher runner, is built to be a better blocker, and is actually just as good if not better than Blue in the passing game.
-- Draft Guide publish week, this week...for America’s birthday.
Most likely drop date/time: Midday range 7/3 FRI.
There’s a chance for 7/2 THU/tonight but I don’t want to rush it and make any publishing mistake, but I’m trying to get ‘er done 7/2 THU nightET.
I lost a couple hours of work last night watching the US Men’s Soccer Team overcome getting totally screwed by the refs--but ultimately overcoming like good Americans do.
== QUOTES & QUOTABLES (pulled from an internet A.I. search, I try to make sure it’s accurate but some of it is ‘trust in AI’) ==
-- “The offensive line, we have gelled together quite well,” Texans O-Lineman Ed Ingram said, via Aaron Wilson of KPRC. “I feel like Pop has got a good group of guys in a room together. We are all like-minded and all have one common goal, which is just showing each and everybody that the line here, that it’s changed. We’re doing a complete 180, and we’re a different line, we’re a different unit, and that the team can rely on us to run behind us, block for C.J. and we’re going to have a great year.”
-- Jason La Canfora of SportsBoom added fuel to that speculation this week, posting on X, “Is it just a matter of when and not if with Aaron Donald coming back?”
RC NOTE: I don’t even think it’s much of a debate. I’d say Donald is 75%+ likely to return.
Your moment of Zen for this day...
-- Congrats to the USA Soccer team overcoming more cheating from outside influences. *LANGUAGE ALERT* https://x.com/gavinmchughh/status/2072499078504808484
We’re hard to stop even when you try to cheat to bring us down!!!!!
WE ONLY NEED TEN!!!!!
-- Have a laugh: https://x.com/its_The_Dr/status/2072338492214939699
== Daily Series ==
New daily series coming in a few days, maybe after July 4th weekend. Let’s take a quick break and celebrate America 250!
I think the next one is gonna be a ‘best WR group’ tourney, or best ‘receiver group’ tourney (to include TEs).
----------------------------------------------------------
*How to sign up for our monthly or annual access: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/total-football-advisor
*Draft Guide season access $29.99: https://ffmetrics.com/draft-guide/draft-guide
*How to get the free FFM App and FAQs on how to use: https://ffmetrics.com/5663-how-to-get-the-free-ffm-app
*Our Betting Subscription offering (including private Discord chat access): https://ffmetrics.com/betting/betting
=====================
7/1 WED
(7:54amET)
Today/tomorrow
-- New Faux 2.0 Computer Simulated Season started yesterday. A multiple day series a few weeks of seasonal results at a time. Running through the end of the month.
The playoffs have begun!
-- Next TST video drops today. If you’re subscribed to the channel you’ll get notified instantly when it drops.
We led off the week with our Ep. 11, a review of Luther Burden’s 2025 tape and valuation here: https://youtu.be/4iZYSIXQApQ
-- The month of June is Draft Guide prep and reporting season. July 2-3 projected 1.0 version release.
-- A ‘Strength of Schedule’ light reporting, daily series runs through June.
-- Miscellaneous reports on things that come my way and more scouting reports to come. I have a backlog of them to get published already.
--------------------------
NEW DISCORD NOTIFICATION SYSTEM/INVITE: FFM Discord Notification System
This is not a chat room. It is a one-way channel for FFM notifications about newly posted items and critical breaking news.
This Week’s/Month’s Agenda…
-- DRD rankings will now update rankings and add/update commentaries, etc., every THU or FRI for the rest of the preseason.
-- Dynasty and Best Ball rankings audits/updates weekly +/-.
-- Holy series QB and RB done. Holy RB Handcuffs underway (on hold for draft, since we’re this close)
-- Full scouting reports on various prospects from now until the NFL preseason. Deeper looks at Cyrus Allen and more all on deck.
-- Any FFM News & Notes or Special Reports during the day as I get them.
-- New coaching staff hire’s analysis series...trying to slot/schedule this. Once the Draft Guide is set, I hope/plan to turn to this.
== NEWS & NOTES & Xs ==
-- HEADLINE: ESPN’s Josh Weinfuss reports Jacoby Brissett is looking for a reworked contract that will increase his guaranteed money in 2026. Brissett’s contract calls for just $1.5 million in guarantees in 2026.
The Cardinals continue to be the single stupidest team in the league. If you don’t want to pay Brissett then trade him...or cut him. They may want to go with Gardner Minshew anyway. Just do something. The guy is worth more than his current deal. He’s the best, most respected QB on the team. The wind will immediately go out of the Cardinals sails if they don’t secure Brissett.
Unless they are going to push the chips all-in on a Tyson Bagent trade, which they should do based on what I am seeing of this 2027 QB class AND the option that a bunch of those 2027 prospects might stay in school for another payday instead...get on with your life and trade for a young, franchise potential QB. Stop jerking around with Brissett and Minshew.
Do something. Make a real decision. This is an abject joke at this point.
-- HEADLINE: Cardinals WR Michael Wilson told ESPN’s Josh Weinfuss that talks on an extension are “going great.”
I cannot comment on the Wilson extension implications until I see an actual deal. I’m sure Wilson wants elite WR money, and the Cardinals want to insult him, like they are doing with Brissett, and trying to pay Wilson for his 3-year body of work...and body of work mostly suffocated by bad coaching and bad planning and the boat anchor/dark cloud of Marv Harrison. Wilson should be in the debate for the best WR in the game right now, but he isn’t even a thought. He probably won’t even make the player’s/coach’s top 100 vote thing, which will let you know how absolutely absurd that top 100 is...and let’s you know that the people in the industry really have no idea how to decipher true talent and positional value in their own industry. Let me guess...Myles Garrett is gonna be #1, right? Yeah, right.
I doubt the Cardinals will pay up/ahead ror Wilson because they’re too dumb to.
Wilson’s in a pickle because he could play 2026 with Minshew and then maybe he doesn’t have the numbers of an elite WR and hurts his 2027 chase for gold? I’d love to Arizona make a statement here and be smart with Wilson and pay him what he’s really worth on the open market...but I’m betting against that.
-- Draft Guide publish week, this week...for America’s birthday.
7/2 THU evening is looking better and better as the target for the draft guide version 1.0 publishing. But 7/3 FRI midday is in play as well.
I’m ready to get that 1.0 version wrapped and get on to some other topics/series that I want to do before training camps start.
-- Whose ready for some futbol tonight?
The US Men’s team has their field of 32 World Cup game tonight against Bosnia and Herzegovina at 8pmET...they gotta play two teams at once or something I guess, I dunno...but I will be watching.
I am going to open a special soccer chat area for anyone on the Betting subscription, Discord club chat who wants to watch the game with me. I’d love to go to a Buffalo Wild Wings and have a good time with it, but all my good sports friends are out of state. I watched the Australia game with my wife and Father in Law.
I’ll be on the chat, and we can cheer on the USA team and bet on it if we want, and you can ask me any FF questions while you got me there. I can get to the queries at the breaks. Join me if you’d like on our FFM Private Club Discord.
== QUOTES & QUOTABLES (pulled from an internet A.I. search, I try to make sure it’s accurate but some of it is ‘trust in AI’) ==
-- RB Najee Harris says that NFL players check their phones at halftime of games, to see what people are saying on social media about them/their performance. “Some people run straight to their phones and check their things. See if someone posts something about them.”
-- Brendan Sorsby Drops NFL Lawsuit, Shifts Focus to 2027 Draft: ‘I Accept 100% Responsibility’
-- Cardinals CB Will Johnson: We have a good opportunity to surprise people
-- Lamar Jackson on Zay Flowers’ next contract: “His value is out of this world”
Your moment of Zen for this day...
-- https://x.com/katsuxbt/status/2070693526598234244?s=43
-- I can’t help it, I so love this video...I’ve used it before here a while ago, but it popped up in my feed again so... https://x.com/rainmaker1973/status/2071144379675209808?s=43
-- https://x.com/Andrew_Maj42/status/2072048508186853803
== Daily Series ==
THE END...the final team is in, thank God.
My summary of trying this new thing: -- https://x.com/livingdevops/status/2071917674528215245
GEMINI has been so great on many things, but it is totally confused by schedules even when I put links to the schedules in the request, it would still pull some not-right schedule.
NEW for JUNE: 2026 Strength of Schedule analysis according to FFM!
I am putting my data into GEMINI and letting it do two things...do my calculations for me on our internal NFL-based ‘Strength of Schedule’...which takes a ton of things into consideration like our current win-loss projections for all teams 2026, analysis on weather, and travel, and BYE week impacts, etc.
I’m doing a slow burn for some daily fun/fare, BUT I’m also running my AI writer/creation AI_McGillicuddy1 to take all my data and guidance/notes and then make a report on the schedule as if he is an expert schedule analyzer (with our data) and then writes it in his comedic way that I constructed him to be like...a Frankenstein writer, half robot/half football writer/comedian.
We’ll add a team’s strength of schedule per day until we’re done. But we’ll begin with the first two, to get us started, the A’s group and then their quick schedule analysis reports from AI_McGillicuddy1 will hit during the day.
How we evaluate the SOS is a winning percentage (like everyone else), but ours is weighted for certain factors on top of our own internal projections for 2026 season strength of the 32 teams. The higher the % above .500, the tougher the schedule and vice-versa.
Our FFM Internal SOS for 2026, current:
*Adding Warren Sharp’s #1-32 rank on their S.O.S. calculations just for a fun check/parallel to a football research group that also gets that S.O.S. is a whole different animal than just “what was their record last year?” For Sharp Analysis notes, it’s displayed as #1 their easiest/#32 toughest scale.
1) 45.81% = Cincinnati Bengals (#3)
2) 45.83% = Detroit Lions (#1)
3) 45.88% = New Orleans Saints (#2)
4) 46.05% = San Francisco 49ers (#8)
5) 46.38% = Indianapolis Colts (#9)
6) 47.73% = Tennessee Titans (#13)
7) 48.23% = Green Bay Packers (#17)
8) 48.27% = Chicago Bears (#27)
9) 48.74% = Baltimore Ravens (#6)
10) 49.08% = Philadelphia Eagles (#7)
11) 49.24% = NY Giants (#24) *updated
12) 49.41% = NY Jets (#5)
13) 49.75% = LA Chargers (#21)
14) 49.75% = Pittsburgh Steelers (#18)
15) 49.92% = Tampa Bay Buccaneers (#23)
16) 49.99% = LA Rams (#28)
--------------------------------
17) 50.25% = New England Patriots (#12)
18) 51.22% = Cleveland Browns (#4)
19) 50.80% = Houston Texans (#26)
20) 50.81% = Denver Broncos (#11) *Updated
21) 51.10% = Dallas Cowboys (#29)
22) 51.11% = Washington Commanders (#25)
23) 51.26% = Seattle Seahawks (#22)
24) 51.38% = Kansas City Chiefs (#10)
25) 51.90% = Miami Dolphins (#31)
26) 52.10% = Jacksonville Jaguars (#15)
27) 52.25% = Buffalo Bills (#14)
28) 52.94% = Las Vegas Raiders (#19)
29) 53.11% = Atlanta Falcons (#20)
30) 53.33% = Carolina Panthers (#30) *updated
31) 53.29% = Minnesota Vikings (#16)
32) 57.98% = Arizona Cardinals (#32)
----------------------------------------------------------
*How to sign up for our monthly or annual access: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/total-football-advisor
*Draft Guide season access $29.99: https://ffmetrics.com/draft-guide/draft-guide
*How to get the free FFM App and FAQs on how to use: https://ffmetrics.com/5663-how-to-get-the-free-ffm-app
*Our Betting Subscription offering (including private Discord chat access): https://ffmetrics.com/betting/betting
=====================
6/30 TUE
(8:30amET)
Today/tomorrow
-- New Faux 2.0 Computer Simulated Season started yesterday. A multiple day series a few weeks of seasonal results at a time. Running through the end of the month.
The playoffs have begun!
-- Next TST video drops THU.
We led off the week with our Ep. 11, a review of Luther Burden’s 2025 tape and valuation here: https://youtu.be/4iZYSIXQApQ
Ep. 10: Nate Boerkicher scouting review this past weekend: https://youtu.be/PZ-zU2yjzRM
-- The month of June is Draft Guide prep and reporting season. July 2-3 projected 1.0 version release.
-- A ‘Strength of Schedule’ light reporting, daily series runs through June.
-- Miscellaneous reports on things that come my way and more scouting reports to come. I have a backlog of them to get published already.
--------------------------
NEW DISCORD NOTIFICATION SYSTEM/INVITE: FFM Discord Notification System
This is not a chat room. It is a one-way channel for FFM notifications about newly posted items and critical breaking news.
This Week’s/Month’s Agenda…
-- DRD rankings will now update rankings and add/update commentaries, etc., every THU or FRI for the rest of the preseason.
-- Dynasty and Best Ball rankings audits/updates weekly +/-.
-- Holy series QB and RB done. Holy RB Handcuffs underway (on hold for draft, since we’re this close)
-- Full scouting reports on various prospects from now until the NFL preseason. Deeper looks at Cyrus Allen and more all on deck.
-- Any FFM News & Notes or Special Reports during the day as I get them.
-- New coaching staff hire’s analysis series...trying to slot/schedule this. Once the Draft Guide is set, I hope/plan to turn to this.
== NEWS & NOTES & Xs ==
-- HEADLINE: Lions waived CB Terrion Arnold.
Wow, that was fast.
I don’t think it was public pressure of the headlines...the Lions obviously did their investigation and were confident it was time to cut bait. Another blow to a Lions team who is already missing key members of their secondary.
Detroit football 2026 is gonna be fascinating to me...
Easy Schedule, it seems. Fading offense since Ben Johnson left. Fading O-Line due to time/age/injury...and Ben Johnson leaving. Fading defense for years, mostly due to wicked levels of injury.
This season is gonna show the Dan Campbell genius or expose him and put him on a mild hot seat.
Ditto Kevin O’Connell is at a crossroads season...that I have a bad feeling about.
Ditto Matt LaFleur.
Ben Johnson is totally secure. I thought Ben was making a bad decision taking a job into the NFC North with the heavyweight teams/coaches in the division. Now, the Bears rule and the other guys are falling apart. It took less than ONE year for Ben to bring that division ‘to heel’.
-- Speaking of Kevin O’Connell...the hot seat got a degree hotter...
I had not thought about this when I heard about it: https://x.com/thorku/status/2071774092399669575
-- Kyle Juszczyk: Mike Evans has been “unguardable” at practice.
Maybe.
We’ll see.
Ross and I are set to tackle, on ‘Two Scouts Talking’, scouting the tape on Mike Evans and Davante Adams from 2025 to assess what they still seem to have (or not) in the tank.
-- Draft Guide publish week, this week...for America’s birthday.
3.5 inputs/writers for the draft guide this year.
1) A promising writer/observer, and long-time FFMer, who came forward from my ask for any volunteers who wanted a shot at getting into the industry and helping us out...and he has Buffalo Bills experience/insights, so we worked together on him doing the first wave of Bills Draft Guide names. He’s also working on some other test projects as well. Welcome, Tony Serafini to the FFM scouting and writing gang. You’ll see some more material from him as the summer develops. His commentaries will be denoted with (TS) to begin any commentary.
2) Ross Jacobs handled ten select teams of study and writing commentary for this year’s draft guide. You’ll see a (ROSS) to begin any draft guide player commentaries he wrote.
3) I (RC) tackled all the remaining teams for study/commentary, but this year I wrote some commentaries all the way out and others I dumped all my notes, prior feature reports (if applicable) and wrote some rough draft lines--then asked GEMINI to organize it and fact check it in my voice/style, so there are some commentaries that may seem more polished from me and some others that are more raw from me...that’s where I chose the GEMINI polish up version (but it not making sweeping changes, just pointing out minor edits/grammar, etc.) because I liked its presentation better than mine, but others I went with my version as it was written choosing it as the better option from a comparison/read through.
You may not have realized the AI presence when reading it if I kept quiet on it, but I feel I should say when I use AI to do something versus things that are 100% me...and the AI deserves some credit here for polishing up and reorganizing the things I said and corrected spelling, etc.. It was a huge help this year...and gave me some injury or stat trend data details on players that I didn’t use in my rough draft, so then incorporated it into my commentary. I don’t think it is cheating...it’s like having the world’s fastest editor and researcher at my beckon call for $0 per hour/$20 per month. I’ve dreamed since day one of writing to have an editor because re-reading your own material 3-4x is the worst and chews up a ton of time to find one its vs. it’s wrong.
We’re on track for a 7/2-3 release zone for the Draft Guide v. 1.0. 7/1 is likely too aggressive. I want this out by Friday 7/3 so that it can be used by anyone over the long weekend.
And you’ll see 200 or player commentaries on the debut version 1.0. We’ll be adding commentary and updating player notes on them all July/August. It will get to 400-500+ player commentaries in short order/throughout the process.
We have zero D/ST or PK commentary in the first round. I wanted to get the main/top players and rookies out and the rankings/valuations and then I’ll next get all the DSTs done quickly after the 1.0, then when DSTs are done, I’ll spend a week reviewing/doing the PKs ASAP.
I’ll also update the Holy Players Lists/Series that I did a few positions on early, but post-NFL Draft and free agency we need to update it all...as well as putting my initial strategy for the redrafts out there along with some actual mocks.
All to come in July and August, as usual.
== QUOTES & QUOTABLES (pulled from an internet A.I. search, I try to make sure it’s accurate but some of it is ‘trust in AI’) ==
-- ESPN’s Rich Cimini writes Jets WR Omar Cooper “was their most impressive rookie in the spring, all but solidifying a spot in the three-receiver package.”
-- (YAHOO) What if I told you Josiah Stewart was as effective as a pass rusher as last year’s third overall section in Abdul Carter? They both led all rookie EDGE rushers in pass rush win rate, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF), at 14.7%. This would rank around 22nd among all players at the same position with at least 318 pass rushing snaps.
-- (YAHOO) The Rams hope that Terrance Ferguson can develop into a unique chess piece that can threaten defenses as a vertical receiver. His role will likely be inversely similar to the one Cooper Kupp used to hold in this offense. The team used to say that they were in 11.5 personnel with Kupp’s ability that approached a tight end, and Ferguson could in theory create the same effect as a receiver and give LA more explosiveness from a traditionally lackluster position.
-- Diana Russini vehicle incident details: https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/the-dianna-russini-traffic-stop-bodycam-emerges-with-no-facetime-to-any-nfl-coach
-- (YAHOO) “Who makes the final cut, and how QB2 and QB3 are set, will be the talk of training camp,” Mark Kaboly writes. “Rodgers is entrenched as the starter in the final year of his storied career. But considering he’s 41, in his 22nd season, and the Steelers want to develop a long-term quarterback between third-round pick Allar and Will Howard, it’s not a simple process. For the record, I would keep all four quarterbacks, but the Steelers don’t seem very interested in doing that. McCarthy has never done that in his 18 years as a head coach. Regardless of what happens in the preseason, Rudolph and Allar slot in at QB2 and QB3, with Howard the odd man out. Trying to stash Howard on the practice squad might not be that daunting, considering he was a sixth-round pick with no reps to speak of as a rookie.”
-- Donte Jackson: “I have emerged as “one of the top corners in the league”
-- Tyler Shough on rookie WR Jordyn Tyson: “He’s jumped in even in these walk-throughs, and he hasn’t messed a play up, missed a beat. He’s super smart. He’s ready to go. He’s going to be firing on all cylinders, so I can’t wait to get going with him.”
-- Jaydon Blue: I didn't start off like I should have, I'm ready to go now
-- Deion Sanders Considers Himself 'Cancer Free' One Year After Bladder Removal Surgery (Congrats to Deion! I’m gonna try to beat mine as fast as possible as well!!).
Your moment of Zen for this day...
-- https://x.com/TheRealMrACL/status/2071665218287960535
-- Made me shed a tear: https://x.com/DraftKings/status/2071237024649023972
-- OUCH: https://x.com/BoringBiz_/status/2071756446296113630
-- This is gonna blow your mind...stick with it, there’s some info about midstream into it that will really knock your socks off:
https://revolver.news/2026/06/im-an-american-living-in-europe-during-the-great-ac-wars/
== Daily Series ==
NEW for JUNE: 2026 Strength of Schedule analysis according to FFM!
I am putting my data into GEMINI and letting it do two things...do my calculations for me on our internal NFL-based ‘Strength of Schedule’...which takes a ton of things into consideration like our current win-loss projections for all teams 2026, analysis on weather, and travel, and BYE week impacts, etc.
I’m doing a slow burn for some daily fun/fare, BUT I’m also running my AI writer/creation AI_McGillicuddy1 to take all my data and guidance/notes and then make a report on the schedule as if he is an expert schedule analyzer (with our data) and then writes it in his comedic way that I constructed him to be like...a Frankenstein writer, half robot/half football writer/comedian.
We’ll add a team’s strength of schedule per day until we’re done. But we’ll begin with the first two, to get us started, the A’s group and then their quick schedule analysis reports from AI_McGillicuddy1 will hit during the day.
How we evaluate the SOS is a winning percentage (like everyone else), but ours is weighted for certain factors on top of our own internal projections for 2026 season strength of the 32 teams. The higher the % above .500, the tougher the schedule and vice-versa.
Our FFM Internal SOS for 2026, current:
*Adding Warren Sharp’s #1-32 rank on their S.O.S. calculations just for a fun check/parallel to a football research group that also gets that S.O.S. is a whole different animal than just “what was their record last year?” For Sharp Analysis notes, it’s displayed as #1 their easiest/#32 toughest scale.
45.81% = Cincinnati Bengals (#3)
45.83% = Detroit Lions (#1)
45.88% = New Orleans Saints (#2)
46.05% = San Francisco 49ers (#8)
46.38% = Indianapolis Colts (#9)
47.40% = NY Giants (#24)
47.73% = Tennessee Titans (#13)
48.23% = Green Bay Packers (#17)
48.27% = Chicago Bears (#27)
48.74% = Baltimore Ravens (#6)
49.08% = Philadelphia Eagles (#7)
49.41% = NY Jets (#5)
49.73% = Carolina Panthers (#30)
49.75% = LA Chargers (#21)
49.75% = Pittsburgh Steelers (#18)
49.92% = Tampa Bay Buccaneers (#23)
49.99% = LA Rams (#28)
50.25% = New England Patriots (#12)
51.22% = Cleveland Browns (#4)
50.80% = Houston Texans (#26)
51.10% = Dallas Cowboys (#29)
51.26% = Seattle Seahawks (#22)
51.38% = Kansas City Chiefs (#10)
51.90% = Miami Dolphins (#31)
52.10% = Jacksonville Jaguars (#15)
52.25% = Buffalo Bills (#14)
52.94% = Las Vegas Raiders (#19)
53.11% = Atlanta Falcons (#20)
53.29% = Minnesota Vikings (#16)
54.50% = Denver Broncos (#11)
57.98% = Arizona Cardinals (#32)
----------------------------------------------------------
*How to sign up for our monthly or annual access: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/total-football-advisor
*Draft Guide season access $29.99: https://ffmetrics.com/draft-guide/draft-guide
*How to get the free FFM App and FAQs on how to use: https://ffmetrics.com/5663-how-to-get-the-free-ffm-app
*Our Betting Subscription offering (including private Discord chat access): https://ffmetrics.com/betting/betting
=====================
6/29 MON
(8:05amET)
Today/tomorrow
-- OTA rumors and observations report posting MON midday.
-- New Faux 2.0 Computer Simulated Season started yesterday. A multiple day series a few weeks of seasonal results at a time. Running through the end of the month.
The final regular season tallies and some gambling discussion on it.
-- Next TST video today: We lead off the week with our review of Luther Burden’s 2025 tape and valuation.
Nate Boerkircher scouting review yesterday: https://youtu.be/PZ-zU2yjzRM
Two Scouts Talking 2027 NFL Draft QB prospect series (there’s gonna be a ton of them): QB Dante Moore, Oregon https://youtu.be/Mb7Kk1dcpgA and re-scouting of Arch Manning https://youtu.be/Zo-54kbIQ2Y have dropped so far.
-- NOTE: I’m researching and working through all the main/key injuries lingering out there in the NFL/for FF as I work on the draft guide, which has ripple effects for all rankings and ratings and betting, etc. And I am getting a lot/learning a lot from them...and GEMINI does a lot of the heavy lifting/research, so everybody wins.
I’m gonna keep them coming as we dial in the 2026 Draft Guide projections and commentaries. I’m working my way down from the major/monster ones to the more curious/suspect/double-check-and-make-sure-things-will-be-OK injury Q&A’s...like with a Bo Nix.
-- The month of June is Draft Guide prep and reporting season. It’s pushed back a little bit from usual time ranges due to the Schedule release being so much later this year.
-- A ‘Strength of Schedule’ light reporting, daily series runs through June.
-- Miscellaneous reports on things that come my way and more scouting reports to come. I have a backlog of them to get published already.
--------------------------
NEW DISCORD NOTIFICATION SYSTEM/INVITE: FFM Discord Notification System
This is not a chat room. It is a one-way channel for FFM notifications about newly posted items and critical breaking news.
This Week’s/Month’s Agenda…
-- 2026 Draft Guide studies...version 1.0 release July 1-4 range.
-- DRD rankings will now update rankings and add/update commentaries, etc., every THU or FRI for the rest of the preseason.
-- Dynasty and Best Ball rankings audits/updates weekly +/-.
-- Holy series QB and RB done. Holy RB Handcuffs underway (on hold for draft, since we’re this close)
-- Full scouting reports on various prospects from now until the NFL preseason. Deeper looks at Cyrus Allen and more all on deck.
-- Any FFM News & Notes or Special Reports during the day as I get them.
-- New coaching staff hire’s analysis series...trying to slot/schedule this. Once the Draft Guide is set, I hope/plan to turn to this.
== NEWS & NOTES & Xs ==
-- Draft Guide publish week, this week...for America’s birthday.
7/1 drop at the earliest, but that’s looking a touch too idealistic.
7/2-3 drop most likely. Absolute worst case would be 7/4 morning.
I want to/will have it out ahead of the long weekend, so folks have the option to work with it some if they desire.
The first wave of commentaries includes the top skill position starters and key backups and many rookies. The week of 7/5, I’ll be adding DST commentaries then kicker’s commentary.
All July we will add more and more commentaries and add on commentaries as news hits so that it’s fully loaded and ready for August.
More info on the draft guide release and ‘things’ all week.
-- HEADLINE: ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler believes Seahawks WR Rashid Shaheed “is going to be a big-time player” in 2026 after successfully taking on an expanded route tree this spring.
Was this just copy & paste’d from his years in New Orleans?
The Saints never used him correctly/enough, through 3 regimes...and then Seattle traded for him in 2025 and barely used him.
I’d like to believe this, for his sake...but I lived through enough Cordarrelle Patterson eras with this same copy & paste from OTAs hype on they where gonna get more work and be used in inventive ways.
I know this bull$#!& when I smell it.
-- The latest on Terrion Arnold from Adam Schefter: https://x.com/AdamSchefter/status/2071231704669286588
== QUOTES & QUOTABLES (pulled from an internet A.I. search, I try to make sure it’s accurate but some of it is ‘trust in AI’) ==
-- “If you want to hate America, watch the news. If you want to love America, drive through it” ~German World Cup fan
-- Brandon Aiyuk says he will not report to 49ers training camp: ‘I don’t care how long I gotta wait’ and 'IDGAF HOW MANY MILLIONS I LOSE YOU GOTTA RESPECT ME FIRST!'
-- “What they start doing is they start fining you $50,000, $75,000,” Tom Brady said on the Stick To Football podcast. “And I’m saying, like, I hate that. I hate the fact that, like, you sign a contract for $2 million a year, $5 million a year, and it’s so easy for someone to say, ‘Give me $75,000. Give me $50,000. Oh, it’s your second offense? That’s $100,000. That’s your third offense, $200,000.’ . . . “What job is like that in the world? Where you make a mistake at your job, and they come in, they go, ‘Hey, we’re gonna take your salary away.’ And then people are like, ‘Yeah, you should take his salary away.’”
Your moment of Zen for this day...
-- https://x.com/TylerRatcliff17/status/2070974232645754951
-- The anniversary of this deserves an acknowledgment: https://x.com/90swwe/status/2071193660478427187
-- If you don’t know this story, you’re gonna love this 6+ minute story...and the way it starts, you think you know what it’s gonna be...but you’ll be shocked where it goes from there.
https://youtu.be/1IXNd4jPiVM?si=co86wVNIgiHH5yIK
== Daily Series ==
NEW for JUNE: 2026 Strength of Schedule analysis according to FFM!
I am putting my data into GEMINI and letting it do two things...do my calculations for me on our internal NFL-based ‘Strength of Schedule’...which takes a ton of things into consideration like our current win-loss projections for all teams 2026, analysis on weather, and travel, and BYE week impacts, etc.
I’m doing a slow burn for some daily fun/fare, BUT I’m also running my AI writer/creation AI_McGillicuddy1 to take all my data and guidance/notes and then make a report on the schedule as if he is an expert schedule analyzer (with our data) and then writes it in his comedic way that I constructed him to be like...a Frankenstein writer, half robot/half football writer/comedian.
We’ll add a team’s strength of schedule per day until we’re done. But we’ll begin with the first two, to get us started, the A’s group and then their quick schedule analysis reports from AI_McGillicuddy1 will hit during the day.
How we evaluate the SOS is a winning percentage (like everyone else), but ours is weighted for certain factors on top of our own internal projections for 2026 season strength of the 32 teams. The higher the % above .500, the tougher the schedule and vice-versa.
Our FFM Internal SOS for 2026, current:
*Adding Warren Sharp’s #1-32 rank on their S.O.S. calculations just for a fun check/parallel to a football research group that also gets that S.O.S. is a whole different animal than just “what was their record last year?” For Sharp Analysis notes, it’s displayed as #1 their easiest/#32 toughest scale.
45.81% = Cincinnati Bengals (#3)
45.83% = Detroit Lions (#1)
45.88% = New Orleans Saints (#2)
46.05% = San Francisco 49ers (#8)
46.38% = Indianapolis Colts (#9)
47.40% = NY Giants (#24)
48.23% = Green Bay Packers (#17)
48.27% = Chicago Bears (#27)
48.74% = Baltimore Ravens (#6)
49.08% = Philadelphia Eagles (#7)
49.41% = NY Jets (#5)
49.73% = Carolina Panthers (#30)
49.75% = LA Chargers (#21)
49.75% = Pittsburgh Steelers (#18)
49.92% = Tampa Bay Buccaneers (#23)
49.99% = LA Rams (#28)
50.25% = New England Patriots (#12)
51.22% = Cleveland Browns (#4)
50.80% = Houston Texans (#26)
51.10% = Dallas Cowboys (#29)
51.26% = Seattle Seahawks (#22)
51.38% = Kansas City Chiefs (#10)
51.90% = Miami Dolphins (#31)
52.10% = Jacksonville Jaguars (#15)
52.25% = Buffalo Bills (#14)
52.94% = Las Vegas Raiders (#19)
53.11% = Atlanta Falcons (#20)
53.29% = Minnesota Vikings (#16)
54.50% = Denver Broncos (#11)
57.98% = Arizona Cardinals (#32)
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*How to sign up for our monthly or annual access: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/total-football-advisor
*Draft Guide season access $29.99: https://ffmetrics.com/draft-guide/draft-guide
*How to get the free FFM App and FAQs on how to use: https://ffmetrics.com/5663-how-to-get-the-free-ffm-app
*Our Betting Subscription offering (including private Discord chat access): https://ffmetrics.com/betting/betting
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