- FantasyFootballMetrics

2025 Fantasy/Dynasty Monday Executive Summary: Week 2

2025 Week 2 Game Report: TNF Packers 27, Commanders 18

2025 Week 1 Game Report: Cardinals 20, Saints 13

: R.C. Fischer; FFM; 01 October 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 3: Game Analysis: 49ers 36, Giants 9

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

This was a game outcome/result/tape that should’ve made the Giants realize they made a MONSTEROUS mistake drafting Daniel Jones and they need to scrap this current offensive and completely rebuild it for the future. There are things to keep, but many things need changing…and QB is at the top of the list, and O-C should be the next change along with it, Saquon should be the next to go – but, instead, they’ll shove him a $100M+ contract because ‘the fans’ and ‘those quads’.

The thing is, the Giants are playing with a scrappy good defense…they aren’t terrible. If they had a decent coaching staff and a better QB, they could have hung in the dreadful 2020 NFC East. But Peyton Manning knows his QBs, and you took his terrible advice, so you reached for Daniel Jones and now you’re paying for it. And when will teams ever learn about ‘team building’ not to waste high picks on running backs? Answer…never. Actually, ‘smart’ teams figured it out years ago…the dumb teams haven’t and won’t…or then they wouldn’t be dumb teams anymore. You think the sun will stop rising every morning?

The Giants will win a game this year, maybe 3-4-5 of them, they are not terrible…Daniel Jones is terrible, not the whole team (more on that in a second). At LAR, at DAL the next two weeks will likely not be one of those first wins.

The 49ers are incredibly banged up and went into the game thin and many big money bettors bet the Giants because of it – and the 49ers breezed to victory. Hats off to Kyle Shanahan…coaching matters. No more so on display than with wounded SF this Week 3. It’s also ‘luck’ because at the same time all the injuries hit…they got the Jets and Giants on the schedule. With a different schedule, the season could already be over for SF. The hope ahead continues because of a gift schedule with a three-game homestand with PHI-MIA-LAR.

Fantasy Player Notes…

-- This game tape shows the end, the reality, the real problem with Daniel Jones (17-32 for 179 yards, 0 TD/1 INT), as I predicted ahead of his career (as did others) – Jones cannot work under pressure (real or perceived).

Every QB looks better when defenses are sold out to 10 in the box to stop the known running play/big carry RB offense. Ryan Tannehill just set up his family for three generations+ because of his ability to work efficiently when the defense is hyper-focused on Derrick Henry all game. Daniel Jones only looked mildly good with the benefit of all teams crowding Saquon every game. Now, with Saquon gone, and teams playing more balanced defense against him – Jones has no answer, no ‘other gear’. He’s a backup QB mentality…yes, sir/no, sir, in the facility by 3am, leaves at 2am, knows the playbook, and shits his pants when a defender gets within his vision. Sorry, I had to use the S-word because it made sense to do it.

Jones backpedaled, threw off his back foot, threw into traffic the entire game…and he also missed wide open throws because he got jumpy and misfired to open receivers. This game was a mess, and it’s going to be the norm for Saquon-less Jones.

They are going to have to dumb down the offense and put a bunch of screens and predetermined slants in because he cannot be a real pocket passing QB if pressure is coming. I hoped he would thrive in the 2nd-half of games against less pressure/prevent but it didn’t happen here. It might happen ahead (you hope for the FF WRs/TE involved).

-- The Jones problem creates problems for two key receivers…

1) Darius Slayton (3-53-0/7)…Slayton works downfield more, which means Jones has to wait for that to develop, but Jones is in pre-shart mode if he has to wait on something downfield.

Darius Slayton looks really good to me, and did so again in this game – when he has an incoming pass he adjusts to off-target throws so well. He could really be a future #1 WR, but it’s going to be choppy here with DJ. He’s still a raw #2 WR thrust into a role he’s not ready for with a QB who can’t help him.

If you think the Giants will get garbage time numbers as we go – buy low on Slayton. He’ll be the dude, but he’s also the one teams will cover with their #1 CB – like Ramsey this week will wipe out Slayton.

2) Evan Engram (3-22-0/5) is going to waste here because Jones has no patience or vision for a tight end running a smart route. Engram looks fine, is getting open, but Jones is misfiring to him often.

How about a bubble/tunnel/screen pass to your speedy TE? How about a jet sweep? Wait, it’s Jason Garrett at O-C…he went to Princeton, so he’s smarter than me. I should shut up. Jason Garrett is really smart – because he’s literally stealing money in broad daylight on a daily basis in this league via a hefty paycheck.

I want to believe in Slayton and Engram, but it’s not working now…so why would it ahead? Maybe when the Giants hit the schedule stretch after this week or after Dallas Week 5 they might start garbage timing.

Garbage time is all we got here…but that’s a real thing. Ask 2019 Mike Evans and 2019 Chris Godwin.

-- Some quick NYG RB scouting…

Wayne Gallman (4-7-0, 2-7-0/3) was the starter this game, but he isn’t a real NFL starting RB, but I bet (low amount) that he will be in a few weeks…for whatever that is worth.

Why?

Devonta Freeman (5-10-0) looks/ran like he ate another Devonta Freeman before the game and then tied a third Devonta Freeman to his back, and then decided to go give football another try.

I don’t know what kind of contract Freeman got, besides I know it’s like it’s $3M total. I’m going to go look…if NYG guaranteed his contract then Dave Gettleman should be fired today. *Going to go look*

OK, it was what I was hoping – Freeman ‘only’ got a $1.35M deal, with $17K per game active incentive, with performance opportunities to get to $3M. They can cut him with almost no ramifications. I don’t think he will see Week 8 as a Giant, I bet (low amount). Not what I saw in this game. But it’s his first game, so we’ll see if it was rust. But he wasn’t any good for the past few years…I don’t know what magic rust-remover could happen now.

Gallman starting here tells me that’s their mindset when Freeman fails. Dion Lewis is meaningless.

-- Not one of the Giants current rostered RBs could make the 49ers RB depth chart…a depth chart five RBs deep. But there’s some news to report/worry about the 49ers’ backfield, from my scouting eye.

Let me just blurt it out: I don’t think Jerick McKinnon (14-38-1, 3-39-0/4) looks very good. I mean that from a sense of what he used to be and just in general. He looks a bit slow and stiff, as you would think with two years of knee surgeries and rehabs.

I’m mentioning this because…

It means Jeff Wilson (12-15-1, 3-54-1/3) will split time with him again…he’s not going anywhere, and he looks fresher/quicker. Not saying McKinnon is going to die or that he won’t be the lead this week…just note that the McKinnon I see is not that awesome. Not as good as the numbers are showing early. He’s fine, just not the ‘wow’ we remembered from years ago and assumed by his resurgence so far in 2020.

If I’m right, then McKinnon is a ‘sell high’ because without Mostert it’s a split for JMK (which is still kinda FF useful/good on SF) but when Raheem Mostert returns…it’s Mostert’s ball game with McKinnon in support with Jeff Wilson. When Tevin Coleman returns…JMK is just a lesser Nyheim Hines.

The current rise of McKinnon is sellable high. It also is casting some doubt on Mostert when he returns…what will the touches be?, Mostert owners might worry. I think it’s all-in on Mostert as the thing to have working behind the best O-Line in football. Buy low and sit and wait on Mostert to return if possible.

-- Brandon Aiyuk (5-70-0/8, 3-31-1) was more involved here than I remembered from the live watch. Aiyuk got Deebo Samuel-type work…simple passes, several jet sweeps. It should continue to be solid for FF until Deebo (and JG) comes back and claims the top role.

I’d sell Aiyuk ‘high’ in redraft off this.

-- I bailed on the SF-DST for things like IND, TB, KC in recent weeks. Too many injuries for SF, but that was a minor mistake because they are tearing up the New York teams.

They will likely do the same to Philly and Miami and then they will get rocked for the next 8 weeks after that. The time is short with SF-DST, but it’s working now. It’s a sell high after next week if you got in a place to do so.

-- I’m impressed with the Giants defense. It’s why laying 12.5 with the Rams this week is a bit sketchy. Now, the Giants offense isn’t helping them, but this defense has got talent and is working very hard. When great matchups offer up – this might be a streamer.

#10 in pass yards allowed right now.

#20 in rush yards allowed, but #8 in rush yards per carry allowed.

Their issue right now is…#32 in 3rd-down conversions for their defense allowed.

They are flashing some hope, not imminent greatness. They’ve also played teams that are a combined (8-1). They won’t get a schedule break until Week 6 v. WASH, maybe.

Snap Counts of Interest:

20 = DLewis

18 = Gallman

15 = D Freeman

48 = McKinnon

23 = J Wilson

06 = Hasty

64 = Bourne

56 = Aiyuk

30 = Taylor

20 = Sanu

08 = Pettis

: R.C. Fischer; FFM; 01 October 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 3: Game Analysis: Bucs 28, Broncos 10

This wasn’t much of a game.

Denver did what they do…they fight hard but are so undermanned that they cannot win unless an equally inferior opponent or a lot of breaks – neither happened here. The Bucs are one the better teams in the NFL…they might be the best in the NFC before long. Tampa Bay was just too much for Denver…and considering it was on the road getting a win in the supposed ‘home field advantage’ (due to climate) – it was impressive that they beatdown the Broncos from the opening bell and it was over by halftime and they just played out the final 30 minutes and got out of town with the victory.

Denver gave it all they had. Jeff Driskel did what he could, but with this opponent and Denver’s talent surroundings…it was impossible. The joke is on Denver – if they think going to Brett Rypien is a winning move…they’re about to learn otherwise. Denver has a good chance to lose on TNF to the Jets and then be (0-7) heading into their Week 8 BYE.

Tampa Bay is gaining momentum and cohesion. They are trying to become the toughest team in the league with an intimidating, very good defense. They should be (4-1) heading into a crucial litmus test hosting Green Bay Week 6. I still believe TB will win the NFC South over the Saints, and I’m more confident after Week 3 than I was going in September pre-Week 1 making that call.

Fantasy Player Notes…

-- First things first… I think a train wreck is about to happen Week 4 on TNF…the move to Brett Rypien (8-9 for 53 yards, 0 TDs/1 INT) is a bad one. It tells me they either think Drew Lock is coming back Week 5…or that they want to tank the season. Doubtful Vic Fangio would ever ‘tank’.

People are like…well, Rypien came in and went 8-of-9 so maybe he’ll be OK. Maybe he’s ready.

His ‘great’ 8-of-9 passing came with minutes remaining with the game over but Denver trying to let Rypien do garbage time work. As Tampa’s defense laid back in a prevent, Rypien hit a couple of no-read quick hitter passes underneath (and almost all off-target) and they slowly chopped their way down the field.

When Rypien got near the red zone, the Bucs had enough of Denver O-C Pat Shurmur’s utter nonsense and they started teeing off on Rypien for three straight plays to send their message.

3rd to the last Rypien play: Rypien got walloped as he tried to throw it away, but it almost got intercepted. The worst ‘late hit’ penalty in the history of organized football was called and moved them closer to paydirt (and took the incompletion away).

2nd to the last Rypien play: Rypien was hit again, coughed the ball up, but it bounced to a Denver recovery. Drive still alive but Rypien got welcomed to the NFL the last two plays.

Last Rypien play: Now Rypien was jumpy after two big hits, so he tried to throw a stare down pass over the middle to what looked open in the end zone but two TB defenders converged and one of them picked it off…ball game.

All this led Shurmur/Fangio to believe Rypien had the goods for a Week 4 start? Good luck. He doesn’t have the arm strength. He is every flimsy backup QB to ever play an NFL game.

-- Who will Rypien throw to this week on TNF? Anyone he predetermines too. I would NOT play any of those WRs for Denver if I had any other options…I don’t care if the Jets seem like a ‘good matchup’. Brett Rypien is a ‘good matchup’ for the Jets.

I’d say Tim Patrick (4-43-1/5) but Rypien has no favorite receiver besides where he is going to predetermine his throw to. It probably won’t be Jerry Jeudy (5-55-0/9) much because he won’t have time for things to develop downfield for him.

-- Round One (Week 1) of Ronald Jones (13-53-0, 2-20-0/4) vs. Leonard Fournette (7-15-0, 2-7-0/2) went to RoJo, but you would expect that given Fournette just arrived.

Round Two (Week 2) was a shocker as Jones started, as he does, but Fournette had a great 2nd-half breaking a long run and scoring 2 TDs.

After Round Two, people started thinking Fournette was the way to go, only a matter of time. Well, Round Three/Week 3 went to RoJo, clearly. Jones is starting. He is involved more all game (15 to 9 on touches for Jones, 35 to 25 in snaps for Jones). If you watched this game in a bubble, you would never think Fournette was as important or more talented than Jones.

I stick by my assessments… Ronald Jones looks better than Fournette. Jones is running much faster, more nimble, and as tough or tougher. Fournette is winning the passing game battle between them, but not by a ton.

Jones will continue to start and Fournette will get in on a 60/40 split and has to hope he gets hot in relief in-game to keep the touches going. Jones is the guy to own right now. I don’t see Fournette jumping in as starter for a while, and it will take an injury or major screw up by Jones to do it…more than one screw up.

Imagine three years ago someone told you Leonard Fournette would be the backup to Ronald Jones…

I wanted everyone with Fournette to own RoJo, or vice-versa, in case one got hurt – the other would spring to RB1 hopes. Well, you might get your first crack at that this week with Fournette very questionable this week.

-- I don’t even know where to begin talking about the Bucs WRs. Tom Brady does not look all that in sync with the big guys and seems more interested in getting his rickety TE-friend the ball more than working out the bugs with the WRs.

Using this game as a judge, in a vacuum, here’s who I think Brady has chemistry with (and not) and I’ll list the three candidates in low-to-high order for Brady…

#3) Mike Evans (2-2-2/4). There isn’t even an effort by Brady to make this connection happen. The two one-yard catches were not any display of ‘in sync’ or ‘pitch and catch’. If you just look at Weeks 1 and 3, Evans has 3 catches for 4 yards and 3 TDs in those two games…the most bizarre stat line in the history of star WRs.

In Week 2, Brady hit Evans deep for a clunky looking 50-yard play. Minus that one play, Evans’s season averages are…

3.0 rec. (5.7 targets), 19.3 yards, 1.25 TDs per game.

Barely a 50% connection rate. Not even 20 yards per game.

There are MAJOR issues here. Maybe they’ll get fixed as we go, but Brady is not having the same issue with the other guys (to my eye). Brady loves throwing over the middle short/medium…whereas Evans is working the wings.

#2) Chris Godwin (5-64-1/6). There’s a little more sync here but mostly off Godwin running simple crossers underneath in Brady’s vision line up the middle and he dumps it to Godwin, who then makes hay after the short catch. It’s not impressive looking, but works some.

#1) Scotty Miller (3-83-0/5). The moment Brady feels uncomfortable, or the pre-snap where Brady likes the matchup…he likes to float it out deep to Miller. He also has some Brady-to-Edelman sync with Miller…especially underneath where Brady likes it.

10 catches, 18 targets, 108 yards = Evans in 2020

10 catches, 14 targets, 167 yards = Miller in 2020

I think Miller is worth looking at as ‘a Brady guy’…one with good speed and hands and fits a mold. I can see the connection with Miller more than anyone else for Brady right now. If you think Andy Isabella is something to hope for, Scotty Miller is lesser-talented but in a better place/desire with the starting QB.

-- Can you use this Denver-DST against the Jets Week 4? I guess. It’s not white hot, but it’s something. There’s not much more than this Week 4 to use them ahead. It’s not a defensive unit on the rise at all. Maybe they’ll have an uptick when Bouye returns, but I need to see it first.

-- The Tampa Bay-DST is starting to really heat up. We were on this early when many bailed after their opening week game vs. the Saints.

The Bucs are an intimidating, deep, good at all groups (D-Line, Linebackers, Defensive backs) unit.

The Bucs are…

#3 in sacks YTD

#3 in least amount of passing TDs allowed

#5 in QB rating allowed

#3 in rushing yards allowed

#2 in rushing yards per carry

The next five weeks are mostly good…

Versus LAC is a good enough matchup Week 4.

Week 5 at CHI is good too.

Week 6 hosting Green Bay is not as good.

Week 7 at LV is OK (Carr not big getting sacked or getting picked)

Week 8 at NYG is sweet

-- I have to point out one defender from TB… Antoine Winfield (6 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 PD, 1 sack) already looks like a Pro Bowl safety.

A rookie starter playing every snap, and he’s averaging 5.0 total tackles, 0.67 sacks, 0.67 PDs per game. He’s the #5 DB in IDP scoring and he’s an absolute ballhawk. He’s kinda playing some of the Jamal Adams role from time to time…playing all over the place. He’s a legit IDP DB…a possible top 3 to the end kinda guy, I think.

Snap Counts of Interest:

58 = Hamler

53 = Patrick

46 = Jeudy

12 = Hamilton

04 = Cleveland

39 = Gordon

24 = Freeman

35 = RoJo

25 = Fournette

11 = McCoy

63 = Gronk

33 = OJH

61 = Evans

55 = Godwin

29 = S Miller

21 = Tyler Johnson

: R.C. Fischer; FFM; 01 October 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 3: Game Analysis: Colts 36, Jets 7

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it relates to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

Pretty straight forward game – Colts jumped all over the Jets, and NYJ had no real answer and the two pick sixes on top of the general domination allowed the Colts to play half-interested on offense all game and eventually playing backups mid-3rd-quarter.

I thought there might be nothing to really discuss from this game, but actually there were a few items of interest. We’ll get to those in the next section.

The Colts are now (2-1) and we don’t know how truly ‘good’ they are because their opponents are a combined (1-8) this season. The schedule is their friend for a few more weeks -- @CHI, @CLE, CIN, bye, @DET. Four winnable games ahead that they’ll likely find a way to lose one of them. They should be (5-2) heading to a showdown with BAL Week 9. We are projecting them between 8-9 wins at this stage…and 10-11 wins possible. The schedule is about to turn on them in the 2nd-half of the season, but they may be a much better team by then and maybe get some lost WRs back.

I have no idea what week/game the Jets will win a game this year. This team is so troubled, but they will probably win a game or two. This Week 4 TNF game should be cancelled for virus issues…because it’s going to make us ill having to watch that mess.

Fantasy Player Notes…

-- Just a quick note on T.Y. Hilton (3-52-0/3), and I know many of you are vested and been let down so far…and thus we’re all questioning if TYH is more ‘done’ than not…

I was encouraged, for the first time this year, by what I saw between Rivers and Hilton this game. It wasn’t big numbers, because the Colts were scoring defensive TDs and then pulling starters…in-between that they didn’t need to risk putting the ball in the air much.

There were the first signs of some comfortable pitch & catch here between them. There is hope here, especially in better/favorable matchups…and now that all the Colts have are practice squad type WRs for Rivers to rely on…which he won’t.

-- The biggest shock for me in this game re-watch?

Kalen Ballage (2-8-0, 5-44-0/5) looks like he’s trying to be a real/useful RB here…not just some warm body. Look at the catch count.

It wasn’t garbage time either. It was several real, designed plays for him out of the backfield faking a block then swinging around into screen position and getting the ball and going strong, and quick.

He was entering the game early, rotating in and out, and then was taking turns with him and La’Mical Perine (7-21-0, 2-0-0/2) as the main RBs playing. The second half was like an extended practice for Perine-Ballage.

But here’s the thing…Ballage ‘looked’ really good, because he’s a good 1st-impression size/speed RB, visually. Ballage has some small-scale Antonio Gibson in him (great, big, fast athletes…but suspect instincts and mental acumen and determination). Perine looked less impressive of the two, because he’s less athletic/big/fast and isn’t designed to be a main carry/between the tackles guy.

If the Jets ‘move’ Le’Veon before he can get active Week 5, and why they wouldn’t -- will be beyond me when/if they do nothing, then the Jets will have Gore-Perine-Ballage going forward. In a lost season, do we need more Gore? We’d likely be looking at a battle/tryout between Perine and Ballage as the season wears on…and that’s a battle Ballage can win. Worst case it’s a split. In deeper leagues, don’t lose sight of the fact that Ballage may be useful ahead in PPR.

The Jets/Adam Gase (drafter of Ballage in MIA) could care less about (my love) Josh Adams but the second he added Ballage, Kalen was playing and in Week 3 he’s the lead PPR back on a team needing to play small ball to protect Darnold. Ballage has some stroke with Gase, he will get a chance to show what he can do.

-- UDFA rookie WR that I like, Lawrence Cager (2-35-0/4) was pressed into action…and he didn’t look bad at all considering the circumstances. He’s not quite ready yet and will go back to the bench or practice squad when Crowder-Perriman returns, but at least he’s made it up one step of the ladder…which is hard to do for any UDFA skill player.

-- Braxton Berrios (4-64-1/4) had another Cole Beasley-esque/really solid, quality game here…two weeks in a row now. Can it hold up? No. Not once Jamison Crowder is back. Berrios may still play a lot but not enough passing numbers with too many mouths to feed.

-- Michael Pittman (3-26-0/4) is our latest fallen WR soldier from the Colts. He joins Parris Campbell as being out until midseason at best. Parris is supposedly going to try and get back midseason, we’ll see…it might be more Week 10-11+ for him. If Parris can get back, we want in on that.

-- Mo Alie-Cox (3-50-1/3) split time with Jack Doyle (0-0-0/0), in Doyle’s return. We don’t know if that’s a sign of things to come or if Doyle is not 100% yet. We’ll see more this week if the Colts aren’t playing in a laugher and pulling players late. Trey Burton could be coming back any week now too.

-- Here’s how bad the Jets defense has now fallen/what they have to do given the personnel they have…

Usually a team will get 3-4-5+ QB hits on the opponents in a game and around the same amount of TFLs as a unit. Typically, the combine number for QB Hits + TFLs is between 7-11 for a team for any game. Between 5-15 combined will cover most every game output for teams.

The Jets had ‘1’ total…one QB Hit and no TFLs. That may be the lowest number I have ever seen from a team in a game.

-- Nice game from the Colts-DST. Not a bad ‘last pick’ DST from us this offseason, no? We were going Colts or Rams off the jump for the schedule analysis opportunity, and the Colts are really paying off for those who chose that path and stuck with it after Week 1.

The Colts are the #1 scoring DST in fantasy after the first three weeks.

How long can you ride them for FF?

Well, you need a DST to cover them for Week 7 (BYE), Week 9 (BAL), and Week 11 (GB) at a minimum. In-between all that and to the end of the season they get OK-ish matchups with the likes of TEN 2x, HOU 2x, LV, DET. After Week 6, you have a choice to keep or move on due to the choppy schedule ahead. We’ll see as we get closer if they are a true shutdown defense…or if it’s just ‘good schedule’. I think it’s more schedule based right now.

The only natural pairing, on a defense sometimes available is IND+LAC, but LAC is taken more than not. If LAC is gone, it falls to NYG then Philly as available pairings that are decent…but I don’t love it.

For now, we ride Indy and see what happens in a few weeks.

Snap Counts of Interest:

36 = Alie-Cox

32 = Doyle

24 = Taylor

20 = Hines

17 = Wilkins

52 = Berrios

51 = Hogan

38 = Malone

29 = Cager

26 = Gore

21 = Perine

19 = Ballage

: R.C. Fischer; FFM; 30 September 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 3: Game Analysis: Chiefs 34, Ravens 20

Well, finally a good night at a Buffalo Wild Wings game event for me! The company and food are always good, but the last few times I’ve gone for a special event type game with a lot of ‘my guys’ going for FF – it seemed to end in depression on the players. Last time that I went to BWW needing a big Mahomes-Tyreek night, last year…it was the kneecap game…fantasy seasons changed in an instant. So did the mood and the taste of the food.

Not this night. The big Mahomes and good Tyreek and disappointing Lamar, Andrews, Ingram pushed FFM-nation to over 80%+ win rate Week 3…that’s what I’m talking about!! A lot of (0-3s) got cured to (1-2) and right back in it (just like I said, ye of little faith!). A lot of thought-to-be (1-2s) are now (so you say) ‘lucky’ (2-1s).

The sun shines a little brighter on the FFM empire this week.

I would like to thank my local Buffalo Wild Wings for their excellent sports awareness hosting us Monday Night.

So, I go into BWW 10 minutes ahead of kickoff. I sit down. I look up at their 8,000 TVs all over and I see the ESPN MNF pregame on about 15 of them. 7,000+ of the TVs were on a college football game – a Saturday replay. The biggest TV they had in the joint was on mini-truck dirt track racing…I kid you not.

Normally, most all the TVs in this place flip over to whatever ‘the big game’ is at least 5-10 minutes ahead, if they weren’t already there. No big deal, I had a few minutes…but I thought I’d ask anyways…because I live by the rule most everyone hates and/or is terrible at their jobs. It’s this rule that makes me put my car in park at the Drive-thru window at a fast food joint after they hand me my food and open up every single item to make sure they got it all right – and feel like I hit the lottery when it is all correct. So, I sheepishly mention the lack of MNF games showing to the waitress…because I already get the vibe that she isn’t really isn’t into the details based on my first conversation (stoically took my drink order, never asked about an appetizer or food). She assured me that she’ll talk to the manager…but in a way where I’m not sure that was going to happen or matter. I’m sure it will be fine. Surely, I didn’t have to even have to mention it…but good to double check.

You don’t have to guess if the TVs ever changed over.

Our best view ended up the little 24” flat screen we had at the booth, which thankfully was on the game. They don’t ever show that in their commercials – people having a raucous time at BWW for ‘the big game’ spending $50 on food for two and watching the game on an old 24” Dell computer monitor that was high tech in 2010.

We had a fun time regardless. We should’ve gone to a sports bar instead. Our mistake.

https://youtu.be/DyrXIakdQm4

I didn’t ask a second time because I was hoping my food wouldn’t be cooked with extra COVID sauce on the wings.

As far as the game itself, you saw it – Chiefs smash. Ravens wilted. The Chiefs are the undisputed best team in football and now people are wondering if Lamar Jackson sucks forever. The power of what people ‘just saw’. So much of fantasy management is how to properly deal with ‘what happened last week’ and knowing what to react to and not overreact to ahead from it. This was a highly viewed game, so Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown are terrible/on sale and you can’t discuss Patrick Mahomes in a deal. That’s how it works.

Last week, some asked me about selling Mahomes/Tyreek because all the teams facing them were going to do what LAC did Week 2…slow it down and take possession away from KC and crush all fantasy teams all year. A week later, no one cares about that anymore. That’s how it works!

For me, the fact that the Chiefs went and destroyed a Baltimore offense that has been a 90% of the recent (2019-20) time a juggernaut – it gave me respect for their defense more than anything. We’ll get to them in the next section.

KC has a next ‘Battle of the Titans’/battle of the top two teams in football game on national TV coming up…KC at MY Buffalo Bills on TNF Week 6. KC is likely headed to a 14-2/13-3 season and got a big feather in their cap for grabbing the eventual #1 seed by beating the Ravens already. KC faces New England this week…not the battle of teams/names we want to believe it is. The Patriots had zero answer for Seattle’s passing game Week 2…so simple deductive reasoning says they’ll have none for KC either.

Baltimore gets a real schedule break the next three weeks – at WAS, CIN, at PHI. I don’t think the -13.0 line is enough for the Ravens to give Washington this week. The Ravens should be (5-1) heading into their Week 7 showdown with the Steelers…another Ravens gut check moment this season (the Steelers). I bet they destroy PIT and then everyone will forget all about this KC drubbing. Losing badly to the Chiefs does not mean you’re a bad football/not great – it just shows KC is better than everyone else, again.

Fantasy Player Notes…

-- Is Lamar Jackson (15-28 for 97 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 9-83-0) toast? Has he been figured out?

What’s to figure out? He’s NFL-bad when he’s down 10+ points. If you see a game on the schedule ahead where he’s going to be down 10+ points, consider whether you want to play him. I’m not sure he’ll be down in a game that much the rest of the season.

Since Week 7 of 2019 season, here’s how much they’ve won each game by (in order):

3 (SF in a downpour)

7 (BUF)

(10 wins in a row to end 2019 regular season)

*2020 start*

Then this loss to KC.

A 12-game regular-season win streak where they won by an average of 21.7, but they lost to KC this week…so throw all that out the window, now Lamar and the Ravens suck? Really?

Even when Lamar got popped by Tennessee in the playoffs, he went off for fantasy numbers. This was a blip for Lamar. I’d need to see more issues happening to think Lamar is somehow dying.

-- Snap counts at RB for Baltimore this game…

24 = Dobbins

18 = Ingram

13 = Ingram

This snap count doesn’t prove anything potentially, but I’ve been getting the sense from watching the games/rotations and talking to Baltimore contacts – the Ravens are itching to pull the Dobbins trigger. Now, they wouldn’t fully ‘diss’ Ingram at this stage -- but a situation where Ingram ‘starts’ and Dobbins takes 60%+ of the snaps could be coming as soon as Week 4.

Why not? Like the Ravens are so good that they have to defer to Ingram? They lost in the 1st-round of the playoffs. They just lost to KC. It’s not like they just won the Super Bowl, so they don’t want to mess with anything yet overreacting to one game. They have cause to make bold changes now.

-- WR notes…

Marquise Brown (2-13-0/6) is a 5 catches, 50+ yards a game WR and will score 8+ TDs a season type player. Slightly limited upside because Baltimore doesn’t throw as much as other teams. He’ll be fine. He’s a buy low candidate.

Sammy Watkins (7-62-0/8)…must be nice catching passes and immediately falling down so as not to get hit. Nice work if you can get it…three years/$48M signed in 2018. He is getting every dollar of his ridiculous deal too, I can’t believe it. Imagine how good this offense would be if Watkins wasn’t there clogging up space?

Mecole Hardman (4-81-1/6) is trying to be ‘that guy’, but he was nothing for two weeks…but Week 3 he got a TD on TV, so the Mecole hype train is back…for a week. It all makes sense in our minds…’with Mahomes’, ‘Watkins sucks’…but go look at the targets and snaps – how can you buy into that now? It’s a year+ in and he can’t beat out Demarcus Robinson?

Devin Duvernay (2-7-0/3) is better than everyone I just listed above. If the Chiefs had drafted Duvernay, their offense would be heading to another level in coming years…instead, DD is stuck as a backup (for now) in a low-grade passing game. He did have a 93-yard KR TD this…because he’s very good…

-- This Chiefs defense…

Why I am so excited is due to my ‘discovery’ before they played their Week 3 game…now I’m even more excited watching them handle Lamar.

From my Three Things/Five Players Report from Monday after Week 3 Sunday:

Dropped by many because of the Ravens matchup Week 3. After the Ravens game you get a long stretch against a mix of good and weak offenses. No powerhouse matchups until like Week 15…if you consider the Saints a powerhouse (at NO). Also, consider – the Chiefs have good-to-great defensive talent to go with (and an offense that supports them).

Weeks 4-5-6 with Cam-Carr-J.Allen is OK, but then it gets really good Weeks 7-14…

At DEN, NYJ, CAR, BYE, at LV, at TB, DEN, at MIA.

You know what pairing works great with KC…the Chiefs and the Dolphins…

Week 4 = KC v. NE

Week 5 = KC v. LV

Week 6 = MIA at DEN (KC at BUF)

Week 7 = KC at DEN

Week 8 = KC at NYJ

Week 9 = KC v. CAR

Week 10 = MIA v. NYJ (KC bye)

Week 11 = KC at LV

Week 12 = MIA at NYJ (KC at TB)

Week 13 = KC v. DEN

Week 14 = KC at MIA

From Weeks 4-15 you get 11 weeks, and 3 matchups with DEN and 3 with the Jets and 2 with the Raiders…over half of the games are vs. DEN and NYJ. Miami doesn’t have a terrible defense either.

From our Weekly Projections highlights:

The Chiefs defense is ranked...

-- #6 in league in points allowed

-- #11 in yards allowed

-- #5 in sacks

-- #4 in pressure% on the QB

-- #5 in Comp. Pct. allowed

This is a really good defensive unit with a very underrated D-C (Steve Spagnuolo) with the bonus of a dangerous return game.

One apart good defense, one part great schedule. Here's the QBs you'll face with a KC-MIA DST pairing through Week 14: Cam, Carr, Lock, Lock, Darnold, Teddy, Darnold, Carr, Darnold, Lock, Tua.

Snap Counts of Interest:

47 = Snead

46 = Boykin

44 = Mq Brown

07 = Duvernay

65 = Watkins

60 = Tyreek

41 = Dem Robinson

29 = Hardman

: R.C. Fischer; FFM; 30 September 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 3: Game Analysis: Lions 26, Cardinals 23

The Cardinals lost a game they should never have lost…you can’t be taken seriously as a playoff team and go and get outplayed by the Lions, at your home field. I don’t care if there are fans or not. Had the Cardinals won this game – their playoff ticket was really looking ‘punched’. Now, if they get outsmarted by Matt Rhule Week 4…all heck is going to rain down in Arizona, as it should.

The Cardinals offense is not special…not a special design by Kingsbury. It’s a basic run-and-shoot that lives and dies by the QB making plays. Kyler turned the ball over, inexplicably, three times and it cost them what should have been an easy ‘W’.

Arizona is facing at CAR, at NYJ, and at DAL the next three weeks – three games where a well-coached team with their talent should go at least 2-1. If they do, this Arizona team is set up to go win 9 games this season. If they stumble to Carolina, then a 7-8 win season is in view. What happens Week 4 vs. Carolina, a game Arizona should win, is going to be a huge ‘tell’ on where this Arizona team is headed.

Detroit seems like a ‘bad team’, but they blew their big lead/opening week win versus Chicago…or they might be (2-1) right now, with their only blemish a loss at Green Bay (understandable). The schedule ahead is not looking good…it’s probably a 4-5 win team for 2020, at best. Hosting New Orleans this week is their ‘last stand’ of sorts, and they’re catching the Saints after two losses. Are the Saints really going to lose three in a row? If they do…the Saints have ‘ended’ and no one told us. Big statement game for NO as well this week.

Fantasy Player Notes…

-- The Kyler Murray (23-35 for 270 yards, 2 TDs/3 INT, 5-29-1) report…

Earlier this week, I gave Kyler the worst diss possible…I said he was not as good as Josh Allen…maybe. In 2020, so far, he’s not.

But I did get a reality check here re-watching this game. Yes, Kyler had three of the worst INTs a QB could have in this game…the kind that gets Mitch Trubisky an end to his career type picks. And, yes, Kyler has 10 TDs/12 INTs in his last 8 games…which he should be taking way more heat for. But watching this game back – if I ignore the three INTs/mistakes, just watching Kyler play the game…he’s so damn good/natural.

I thought the issue was Kyler under pressure/not having enough time. Seems like a good football excuse, right? Seems to fit a narrative with Arizona’s O-Line, no? Check this out...

Kyler passer numbers with under or over 2.5 seconds in the pocket in 2020:

54-of-73 (74.0%), 437 yards, 3 TDs/2 INTs, no sacks = Less than 2.5 seconds

21-of-40 (53.5%), 349 yards, 1 TD/3 INTs, 6 sacks = More than 2.5 seconds

Kyler is better when things are messy and he’s scrambling around making improv plays…or just doing his quick pass bullets. It’s when the quick pass is covered and Kyler hangs in the pocket looking for options…he then ‘forces’ things, or more to the point…nothing is open because these pass patterns aren’t getting things done. Notice the sack counts as well.

Most of Kyler’s problems have been on 3rd & 10+ and him trying to wait/let things open up…he’s 5-of-9 with 0 TDs/3 INTs in these 3rd and long situations. Kyler hasn’t mastered the art of the check down…maybe that will come with time. It’s possible Kyler is never going to be a good pocket passer and this is the only offense he can ever work/thrive in.

Overall, don’t be afraid of Kyler for FF…but do be afraid that Kliff is not helping/not coaching/doesn’t call plays that help Kyler – I think Kyler is on his own to make everything work, and he is not a hard worker/studier, and is just going along on natural talent…and that will work, but getting to an elite NFL level may never be in the cards/Cards for Kyler.

-- One solution to this would be ‘more’ Andy Isabella (4-47-0/4). The guy is a star waiting to happen. Emphasis on ‘waiting’.

No Christian Kirk, and with Isabella showing everyone here that he is the clear best non-Hopkins option they have…and Izzy wasn’t out there every play on the final drives to try and win this game. Iz also played just 26 snaps in the game…20 less than waste of space KeeSean Johnson. That’s a Kliff problem…not a Kyler one.

Two moves in the NFL that would change teams/fortunes…(1) J.K. Dobbins as full starting RB for BAL, and (2) Arizona starts and plays Isabella 90%+ of the snaps WITH Christian Kirk. If Arizona goes Hopkins-Fitz-Isabella-Kirk…it would be the ‘Greatest Show on Turf 2.0’.

There’s still time to get FF-in on Isabella. Not this week…the price/interest is hot. But after a 2-25-0/3 this week or next…and he gets dropped/no one cares…then we’ll see if the time may be right.

-- You know who started at RB this game for Arizona? Chase Edmonds (3-13-0, 2-21-0/2).

I sense the Kliff ‘heel turn’ on Kenyan Drake (18-73-0, 1-6-0/1) starting to formulate. The next hostile takeover at RB coming might be Edmonds moving to a 50/50 split with Drake in the next few weeks.

Drake came in third play and took the bulk of the work…but what was Edmonds starting? When Kliff did that to DJ last year, it was big news/worrisome news (and it was right to worry). Not a peep here, because Drake ended up the bulk worker on paper.

Maybe it’s nothing. Maybe it’s something…

-- You can ditch Marvin Jones (3-51-0/3) if you’d like. I wish you would, because then it would mean he’ll score 3 TDs the following week…and he can finally get going. Lift the jinx already!!

Marvin looks fine, but he’s not explosive, he’s just professional/competent…in what I hoped would be a shootout offense and Marvin would get his, but he’s not…not really, not anything you can’t get from any other WR2.5-3 flyer.

Allen Lazard is the Marvin Jones production I was looking for (in 2020), only Lazard is way more talented – lower catch counts than you want to see type of guys but 10+ TDs coming for one of them in 2020.

-- I’m not a big T.J. Hockenson (4-53-0/7) guy, but he’s working better than Marvin right now.

4.3 rec., 57.0 yards, 0.3 TDs per game…the #9 PPR TE in fantasy.

He’s a fringe TE1 with the Lions offense right now…an offense that is going more towards the run, where they’ve wanted to be all along. TJH will work well in that for FF…Marvin takes a hit, unless the Lions get dragged into shootouts…and they will be a lot ahead, I think.

-- The Lions have decided to make Adrian Peterson (22-75-0, 1-10-0/1) their offensive focus, because of course they did. Couple things to consider off their proclamation…

1) Where are all the people who assured me that I was an idiot on my negative Kerryon Johnson (3-16-0) scouting back when he came into the NFL?

2) D’Andre Swift (0-0-0, 1-19-0/2) is now a bit player/Theo Riddick…only good when 2-minute offense is needed. Just a PPR RB3 right now…at best.

3) The Lions REALLY want to be a power run team, bad news for FF on Stafford & Friends…but wanting to be a power run team but always being down 15+ in the 2nd-half and having to throw a lot might be the outcome whether they like it or not. Just know…they have no interest in letting Matt ‘cook’ as a first plan.

-- I thought Tracy Walker (12 tackles) was going to be a part time player ahead, after he was in Week 2…but he went 100% of the snaps here and was his great IDP self again. I have no idea what Patricia is doing with him.

Jeff Okudah (6 tackles, 2 TFLs, 1 PD, 1 INT) has played two games and has nice IDP numbers for a cornerback. 6.5 tackles, 1.0 TFLs, 0.5 PDs/INTs per game so far.

-- The best thing going for the Arizona Cardinals, OUT OF NOWHERE, is their defense. They are #7 best in passing yards and total points allowed YTD. #5 in most sacks.

They are the #13 DST for FF scoring so far…better NFL-wise than for FF. Last in the league with 0 INTS and #30 in the league with two turnovers.

Facing at CAR without Budda Baker is not a slam dunk situation…in fact, it may be a DST issue for them this week.

Snap Counts of Interest:

61 = Hopkins

56 = Fitz

46 = KeeSean

26 = Isabella

44 = Drake

21 = Edmonds

39 = D Daniels

31 = D Arnold

61 = Marvin

49 = Golladay

30 = Amendola

14 = Agnew

40 = AP

20 = Kerryon

06 = Swift

: R.C. Fischer; FFM; 30 September 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 3: Game Analysis: Bears 30, Falcons 26

I’ll forgo any lamenting on how the Falcons lost another game after getting out to a huge lead.

I will say:

(a) they keep getting put to big leads, and that’s something to note…they aren’t killed right away and never in games.

(b) they had the worst-looking/most hurtful inactives of any team this week going in – not just Julio, but many key defensive players out as well. They were undermanned and almost/should’ve won.

(c) the Bears had every fumble bounce and botched Falcons INT right in their hands (but dropped) moment go their way 2nd-half to help keep fueling the big comeback. It was a lucky comeback by CHI.

The Falcons are (0-3) and have to be the most psychologically damaged team in the NFL…as the travel to Green Bay – and with the Falcons maybe more wounded on the injury reports than they were last week. Tough times.

The Bears have to be the luckiest (3-0) team in NFL history. They should absolutely be (0-3). The fun times likely end this week with Indy coming into town and then a tough schedule stretch through Week 9 and most of the rest of the season. We still project the Bears to have a losing season, but 8-9/9-7 is possible. With Foles…anything is possible.

Fantasy Player Notes…

-- I guess I live in an alternative universe. As Mitch Trubisky (13-22 for 128 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) was winning his first two games, and getting some national praise…I, a known Trubisky defender, thought Trubisky looked as bad as I had ever seen him.

Here, in this game, his career ends…and I thought he was playing his best game of the season. Finally starting to show some confidence. His body language looked great/confident and he was really zipping throws. Jimmy Graham forgets which side of the field he’s on during a pass pattern and Trubisky throws to the pattern and Graham is off picking dandelions and it sails right to a defender for the pick that ended his career.

On that pick, Trubisky turned into a free safety and chased down the looming pick six and probably saved the game with a tackle…which then led ATL to settle for a field goal on the gift turnover instead of a quick defensive or converted offensive score. Had Trubisky not chased down that tackle – the Bears lose, too big a lead to overcome. See! Trubisky is really good for fantasy…as an IDP.

Bring on the Nick Foles (16-29 for 188 yards, 3 TDs/1 INT) era. Foles was better the Trubisky, but was taking a lot of throwing risks…but the game situation warranted that. Everything is better with Foles, but it can only go so high. Foles is a very good QB in the wrong era for his style of play, but he’s still good. He’s also in a situation with a team/fan base that wants him (because they hated the incumbent) – Foles has never been wanted (except by Philly fans, now in retrospect) and with an offensive coordinator he’s close with. Hopefully, Foles gets his due here.

I wouldn’t be shocked if the Bears lost all their games under Foles…or if he led them to the Super Bowl. He’s magic…and he’ll never get the appropriate credit for his career, a career the NFL wasted. The NFL people do like Sam Darnold a lot, though. Not anymore, but they used all be in 100% lockstep agreement.

Mitch Trubisky will likely never play another down in this league, on purpose. He should just go quietly retire after he collects up all his current contract. No one will take a chance on him because of the media/fan backlash, and the NFL doesn’t have the time or talent to develop QBs (except Sean McDermott, Sean McVay or Kyle Shanahan).

-- What’s better with Foles?

Allen Robinson (10-123-1/13) is now an every week WR1, period.

Jimmy Graham (6-60-2/9) may be viable for use…he looked the best I’ve seen him in years but note that I mean he went from an ‘F’ to a ‘D’…he didn’t have far to ‘up’. If Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson couldn’t make any great FF use out of him…be careful thinking this is 8-10 years ago on JG because he had a moment here. But he’s more viable now for sure. Graham hasn’t been held back by any QB issue…Graham isn’t any good anymore, hasn’t been for years. But he’s something in a sea of nothing at TE, right now.

It’s still an Anthony Miller (2-41-1/5) and Darnell Mooney (2-19-0/5) split role…and this game was neither’s finest hour. Mooney had a few chances to make his mark here and he couldn’t haul in the tough passes when needed. Miller is a WR4, a low talent WR that will have a hard time putting Mooney behind him. Not sure he ever will.

-- Does Foles make the RBs better?

I mean, Foles is a miracle worker but he’s not that good…no one could make anything good out of this backfield.

David Montgomery (14-45-0, 2-9-0/3) is THE WORST. I want credit for seeing this before EVERYBODY in football analysis. PFF had their stats that proved his greatness coming out of college…and every analyst ran with it. Fantasy analysts drove him to be the top rookie RB taken in 2019 redrafts in late August 2019. Everyone KNEW he was going to be a star…and I didn’t know what I was talking about per many emailers in 2019.

Well, I’m not saying I have a perfect scouting record, but I was right here…all alone…not one person even thinking along my same lines…against the full power of the mega-billion dollar industry of the NFL, it’s scouts, it’s highly paid analysts – and I called all the problems exactly ahead of time before he even hit an NFL field. https://youtu.be/lemytnFMXLE

The clock is ticking on Montgomery…this could be where Le’Veon Bell winds up. Just a guess. My real guess is -- Matt Nagy is a fool and is going to prove to you how much smarter he is in RB scouting…and he’ll go off a cliff with DM. He needs to slide out of his DM’s.

Tarik Cohen is gone, but the delicate genius Nagy wasn’t using Cohen anyway…so you won't even notice he’s gone. Cohen was getting in the way of more touches for Montgomery, as far as Nagy was concerned. ‘More Montgomery’ he likely thought as Cohen limped away for the year.

Cordarrelle Patterson (4-13-0) is their best back but doesn’t get enough touches to get going…and he’s past his prime. ‘Better than Montgomery’ is not a glowing compliment.

Ryan Nall (0-0-0) saw an uptick in snaps (to 7!!) with Cohen out. All Nall needs is a chance – but Nagy will never give him a real chance, and even if he is forced to via injuries to others…and then Nall pops…Nagy would put it back in the lock box the moment Montgomery was ready to go. Matt Nagy and Anthony Lynn vie for worst head coach personnel decision in the NFL on a weekly basis. But now Nagy has a (3-0) record that says he’s a genius. I look forward to the pending Bears downfall from here – which should bring the entire staff down with it, an epic collapse from (3-0).

Only Foles can save them.

-- The Falcons have a devastated WR group going into Week 4…they may be without Julio Jones and Russell Gage. In their place was:

Olamide Zaccheaus (4-41-0/6), who really had some nice moments here. He’s like ‘Honey, I shrunk the A.J. Brown’…a bulldog, thick WR, very short WR who just missed 1-2 big plays on misfires by Matt Ryan. One of them a 50+ yard bomb TD he was open by 2-3 yards on.

Brandon Powell (3-27-0/4) is a discount Russell Gage.

Of the two, Zaccheaus would be of momentary interest of both Julio and Gage are out Week 4.

-- OK, so…

Julio Jones is ruled out before the game.

Russell Gage is hurt in-game and leaves.

Another good/offensive explosion game for ATL.

…and Hayden Hurst gets 1 whole catch for 1 whole yard (but it was a TD).

I think this tells us how integrated Hurst is with Ryan…not much. It will come, but you may not have time to wait around.

-- ATL LB Mykal Walker (7 tackles, 1 TFL, 2 PDs) played well in Foye Oluokun’s place this week.

Walker is a 4th-round draft pick in 2020 out of Fresno State. 96 total tackles in his senior year/2019. 86 tackles in 2018 but also logged 13.5 TFLs and 6 PDs as well. Solid career.

A solid NFL prospect who showed he belongs in the NFL. He goes back to part-time player when Oluokun returns but could take over an LB spot before long as this defense struggles.

Snap Counts of Interest:

63 = Ridley

54 = Zaccheaus

37 = Powell

12 = Gage

06 = Blake

35 = Gurley

23 = Br Hill

06 = Ito

64 = ARob

51 = Mooney

47 = Miller

23 = Wims

46 = Montgomery

11 = CPatt

07 = Nall

: R.C. Fischer; FFM; 30 September 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 3: Game Analysis: Seahawks 38, Cowboys 31

It's crazy how on fire the Seattle offense/Russell Wilson is right now. Seattle was the aggressor, the team in the lead for most of this game but in this Arena League/Video Game league of legalized holding and rare P.I. calls (compared to the past) in 2020, Dallas was able to step on the gas and take the lead with 4:03 left in the game. But, Russell went right down and scored 2 minutes later and Seattle won a game they felt like they had all along…but Seattle’s defense is so bad right now, you never know what's going to happen or if any lead is ever really safe.

Seattle is now (3-0) and they are getting a ton of accolades, but are lucky not to be (1-2) with a near loss here and a Cam telegraphed run falling short Week 2 away from trouble…and then their only real win would be over sad Atlanta. Seattle looks like the best offense in the league right now…not the best team. They’ve yet to play an NFC West foe. They have two winnable games the next two weeks, then a bye, and then a tough five game stretch that will show us how good they really are.

Seattle might win the NFC West…they might be a wild card. The schedule gets hard then VERY easy after their Week 6 bye…a great finish with @PHI, NYG, NYJ, @WAS Weeks 12-16. We project them (11-5) right now.

Dallas is (1-2) but could easily be (0-3)…or (3-0). It feels like Dallas has never been ready for any of their games this year, and then they wake up late and hit the gas pedal, always chasing, never catching up…a bizarre onside kick not going their way away from being (0-3) with a loss to Atlanta included.

Dallas is not great but is likely to win the NFC East regardless because everyone else is worse. There could be some trouble in Dallas if they lose to CLE at home this week. We project Dallas (9-7) and division winners, at this early stage, but Washington could try to give them a push when they dump Dwayne Haskins after Week 4.

Fantasy Player Notes…

-- The big issue coming out this game…Chris Carson (14-64-0, 3-12-0/3) is expected to be out for 1-2 games with an injury. So, what happens to the backfield now?

Carlos Hyde (4-12-0, 1-11-0/1) should be the lead in a 65/35 split with Travis Homer (2-19-0, 0-0-0/1) but one of the others could get hot and be FF OK. Seattle is winning via air raid, so there’s not much for the backfield guys to do but get a chance at a short TD plunge…and that favors Hyde, you’d think.

I’m not wild about either choice, but they’re something for this week for the desperate.

Carson will be back Week 6, perhaps…two weeks away until Rashaad Penny might return and REALLY gum things up.

-- Who is Cedrick Wilson (5-107-2/7)…where did he come from…should I bid/pick him up?

I liked what I saw from him, as a scout, at Boise State coming out of the draft in 2018, but he was quickly buried, waived, re-picked up by Dallas 2018-2019 – he kept grinding his way to the roster.

Now, he finally got a chance after Weeks 1-2 of no targets and 3-4 snaps each game…and he made the most of it.

Wilson is a solid prospect and showed he was ready for the pros in this game. He really made some great catches and nice runs after the catch. He looked like a potential star…but note he was left to little coverage when he entered the game and made some hay of an ill prepared defense (that would have then overfocused on Amari and Gallup when he entered).

Note that is mentioned Amari-Gallup…not CeeDee Lamb (5-65-0/6). Why? Because most of Wilson’s big plays happened in 3-WR sets with Lamb out, and Wilson in the slot. Why? I’m not sure. I don’t know if Lamb was winded or what, but Wilson made the most of his moment.

The dirty secret here is – Cedrick Wilson looked better than CeeDee Lamb and Dak kinda rode it.

If there is ever a player who is going to get buried from here – it’s Cedrick Wilson. There is NO way Wilson can be allowed to do THIS again. The ‘this’ being making uncriticizable CeeDee Lamb look bad/look ‘lesser’. No one will allow for themselves to think for a second that Wilson might be better than Lamb, so Wilson will pass on with a fading memory.

If Wilson continues to look good, it calls into question why the Cowboys passed up on offensive lineman in the 1st-round for an overrated WR (Lamb) they didn’t need. Jerry Jones is worse than a TV NFL Draft analyst…he was suckered in by his 5 minutes of scouting watching Lamb highlights and just knew he was the guy they couldn’t pass on.

Wilson will be buried now…can’t make Jerrah look bad.

Ask Tyrell Williams and Keelan Cole (from 2-3 years ago) if WRs get buried or not because of draft stock and who’s above them on the roster in ‘name’. Cedrick has to battle his own team for more touches/playing time…and he won’t get it unless an injury happens – that’s my bet on the table.

-- The strong rise of Dak Prescott (37-57 for 472 yards, 3 TDs/2 INTs) and Russell Wilson (27-40 for 313 yards, 5 TDs/0 INT), along with Josh Allen…makes the impact of possessing Mahomes-Lamar less economically valuable, but you still need one of these guys to compete week-to-week in the current shootout fantasy version we’re all playing now. You gotta have one of the big boy QBs or you will get rolled by them. How many (3-0) FF teams in your redraft league are Russell Wilson-led? How many drafted CMC or Saquon?

Matt Ryan, Matt Stafford, Jared Goff, Big Ben, Aaron Rodgers…they are nice, but they don’t cut it any more like Dak-Russell-Josh-Mahomes-Lamar and Kyler do.

It’s Dak-Russell-Josh-Mahomes-Lamar-Kyler trying to rule the FF scoring world…with Kamara-A. Jones. No WR or TE is putting on a similar show. Maybe when Adams or Thomas come back, they will. De’Andre Hopkins might get/stay there too. Ridley will fade from the top ranks soon.

In the sea of all of these high flying QB scorers, if you drafted Deshaun Watson as your ‘any old good QB will do’…well, then your FF season is: https://youtu.be/M5QGkOGZubQ . I have 1-2 best ball teams along the way that did it…and they’re all but dead now.

-- Trevon Diggs (9 tackles, 1 PD) is a good-looking rookie corner. Still getting adjusted to NFL coverage but starter-level talent…better than Jeff Okudah probably.

In his last two games, Diggs has 7.5 solo tackles per game with 1.0 PDs…pretty salty numbers for a CB in IDP. But rookies tend to be ‘all out’ for their first few games to prove themselves, then settle back in as ‘human’ later.

-- Seattle rookie CB Ugo Amandi (7 tackles, 2 PDs) is trying to man the slot cover role, and he’s struggling…but he is getting good tackle counts for IDP.

In his two games played this season (Weeks 2-3), Amandi is averaging 7.0 solo, 0.25 assisted tackles with 1.0 PD per game.

Snap Counts of Interest:

74 = Lockett

73 = Metcalf

34 = Swain

31 = D Moore

48 = Olsen

30 = Dissly

44 = C Carson

16 = Homer

16 = Hyde

70 = Gallup

65 = Cooper

49 = Lamb

24 = C Wilson

: R.C. Fischer; FFM; 29 September 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 3: Game Analysis: Bills 35, Rams 32

*TUE 9/29 Video Q&A – Special Time: 7pmET-830pmET*

This game.

I have my notes set aside, ready to go. It’s not a ton of players…it’s the normal looking note sheet for me. Before the rewatch, I thought I’d talk about Darrell Henderson a lot and then try to figure out a quick way to tell you Josh Allen really isn’t that good/he’s an erratic QB, but he’s playing well now…and ‘I missed it’ and hope we all remember the good things I’ve done on QB scouting and forget the Allen one (you know I’m not like that). I thought this was going to be a short and sweet report, but I feel a tsunami of divine revelations from God about this game that’s going to take me all day to type. It should be a pretty entertaining read…and long.

Actually, I think one particular part is going to scare some of you to death.

That’s a tease.

We’ll get to that ‘horror’ in the player section…and I’m telling you, for some, the blood is going to drain out of your face when you read it as sure as I sit here. I don’t want to deliver this particular message that I’m going to in the player section -- but I have to share the vision that hit me watching this game.

How teased are you now? Some of you might hate me soon.

Before all that, this game…

The Bills jumped out to a 28-3 lead in this game…with 23 minutes left, it was all but over. Stop and consider that for a moment. Two undefeated teams. Two (considered) pretty good teams (not an undefeated fluke like the Bears) played a game here. Two evenly matched teams. Two pretty good coaches. Both teams ‘good with flaws’. Of course, it would be a close game!

It wasn’t close. Not at all…not really.

The Buffalo Bills absolutely punched the Rams in the face. A few lucky/odd plays/calls by the refs happened to get the Rams rolling back into the game. The Rams roared all the way back to take the lead, and then gave it up on the Bills final, masterful drive for a game winning TD.

Facts to take away from this game…

We all love/respect Sean McVay as a head coach, but Sean McDermott is a better NFL head coach. Not even close and given this showdown -- McDermott ‘won’. McDermott as coach and a master player personnel guy is almost unrivaled now in the NFL. He might be better than Belichick…and that’s not a shot at Belichick.

When McDermott trades away/cuts players…it’s almost NEVER a mistake. Those players go on to flop in their new places. When McDermott invests in a draft pick/trading for/signing as a free agent a player…everyone should reconsider what McDermott sees and is doing. McDermott has been a wheeler-dealer since he hit Buffalo and has methodically gotten rid of the bloated and the big college divas and built a team specifically for Buffalo, in his image.

The Buffalo Bills are becoming the Detroit Pistons Bad Boys of the 90s…minus the ‘trying to purposefully hurt people’ part.

The ‘Bad Boy’ Pistons did not have the ‘names’ or star power of the Lakers or Celtics back in the day, but they built a team of misfits and specialists into the deepest/best team in the NBA. The Lakers had Magic Johnson and friends. The Celtics had Larry Bird and his friends. The Bulls had emerging Michael Jordan – all ‘faces’ of the NBA on its most storied franchises. The backbone of the Pistons team was a kinda no-name off guard who was one of the only players who could slow down Michael Jordan with defensive prowess, and was a player who could’ve been a top scorer in the league except he let others do that while he did the dirty work…one of my favorite sports players of all-time, Joe Dumars out of tiny McNeese State. There will be no 30-for-30 ten-part series on ESPN on how vital, how good Dumars was in NBA history.

Detroit also drafted a 6’9” small college player out of Southeastern Oklahoma State who couldn’t shoot, a kid who was recruited to play JUCO college basketball while he was essentially homeless as a teen/young adult…and was then punted from the school due to academic issues. He got one last chance at Southeastern Oklahoma State…and Dennis Rodman would go on to be the 6th Man of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year multiple times, a Hall of Famer, a world champion multiple times, and probably the greatest defensive player and rebounder in the history of the game.

The Pistons, by and large, were not a team of pedigree. They just outworked and out-toughed everyone and fit in odd pieces to make a wonderful unit for a couple of NBA titles. The Buffalo Bills are doing the same thing. Josh Allen/Wyoming. Devin Singletary/Florida Atlantic. John Brown/Pittsburg…State. Dawson Knox/Mississippi State.

This unit won 10 games a year ago and made the playoffs (and should’ve won their 1st-round game). Last year, when the Ravens started crushing everything in sight ion the 2nd-half of the season…it was the Bills that almost beat them…they had a chance on a final drive. This Bills team was supposed to be ‘good’ again this year but not great. They are now (3-0). ‘Great’ is getting into sight for this team/franchise…but not ‘great’ in the traditional sense. Not ‘great’ with names the media adores. The media is going to hate this team, and their hate will show when they pat them on the head and say how ‘good’/decent a team they are.

The Bills are moving into position as the 3rd-best team in the NFL…KC…then BAL, then Buffalo.

They just outcoached and out played Sean McVay in this game. Last year, two weeks before Buffalo took the Ravens to the end, not backing down in the moment…two weeks prior the Rams were humiliated 45-6 by Baltimore, and that score was closer than the game really was. I think the Ravens played their 3rd-string starting the 2nd-half. The Ravens couldn’t pull that stunt with the Bills two weeks later.

Then Buffalo Bills didn’t just beat the Rams here – they put Sean McVay and the Rams organization underneath their heel as they climbed another rung of the ladder. The Rams should’ve lost this game by 30+ points. Then, the Rams should’ve won through a nice/fluky comeback. Buffalo is the better, tougher, smarter team.

I’m back to being a Buffalo Bills fan…I think that’s where I left off last year anyway.

Buffalo has two tough road games ahead (at LV, at TEN) and then a Week 6 game on TNF with KC. We’ll see how good they are the next few weeks. I suspect the Bills will be (5-2) getting ready to host New England Week 8, and then I bet Buffalo blows their doors off.

I’ll explain more about ‘what’s making the Bills tick’ in the player section.

And the Rams played in this game too…

The Rams are not physically tough enough to be NFL champs. They’re just not. Buffalo beat S-A-W-F-T Dallas and Philly to start the year and then got popped here. Because the game ended up close…the Rams are not going to get enough hit in Week 4 in Vegas lines, and the Bills will not get the respect due because the score looked closer than it was.

I like the Giants +13.0 against the Rams this week.

I’ll lay -3.0 to the Raiders for the Bills too, but Vegas has a watered-down version of what Buffalo is doing…so I’m not as over the moon here.

Fantasy Player Notes…

-- The ‘horror’ item I mentioned, I’ll save that to the end because it will need some time to ponder upon.

Who was not a ‘horror’ -- Darrell Henderson (20-114-1, 1-6-0/3) has stolen what was rightfully his to begin wit…he’s the Rams new lead back, and an RB1 for your fantasy teams.

I know there’s fear of Cam Akers or fear of Sean McVay messing this up…and I get that, I’ve said it and joked about it for weeks. But we’re in a different geography on this now. Henderson having a good 2nd-half of a game vs. sad Philly Week 2 is one thing, but this game against Buffalo…it was Henderson’s opportunity (with Akers out of McVay’s reach) and DHendo delivered.

This wasn’t just a ‘good game’ because he ‘got touches’. This was a minor masterpiece by Henderson…tough running with high end burst the likes of which is rare among NFL RBs, rare for his size 210 +/- pounds. Henderson is just flat-out better than Cam Akers, and Malcolm Brown is not in the conversation either. It’s now painfully obvious…and wouldn’t have been if Akers hadn’t gotten hurt Week 2. McVay still would have had his head buried in the sand with Akers if he could have. If Sean McDermott was coaching the Rams, he would have already noticed, and Henderson would’ve been starting 2019 (like he did with Singletary last year). McVay dragged his feet on Henderson all 2019…for what? For Todd Gurley. Don’t tell me Sean McVay is better at coaching or personnel than Sean McDermott.

The Rams only chance to be tougher, to make the playoffs is being led by Darrell Henderson.

I don’t know what kind of split it will be ahead…probably 70/30 because all backfields should be split for the sake of the RBs health/stamina but Henderson is getting the 70 and the other two will fight for the 30. McVay has no choice now. Henderson is a Sean McDermott style player, and Sean McVay can hope DH rubs off on his finesse group.

I would not fear Henderson fading or getting bypassed by Cam Akers. There’s no way even Sean McVay could’ve watched the last two weeks and thought he'd be better off with Akers. Henderson is now a strong RB1-level fantasy asset.

-- On the other side of the field, Devin Singletary (13-71-0, 4-50-0/5) had a good+ game here. He lost out on three TDs by inches. One TD was a great play by him, long play lunged to the end zone but just short and then stuffed the next carry to get it, then the TD went somewhere else on the next try. Later…a couple of times near the goal line, Josh Allen refused to pitch a clear/open Singletary the ball on an option play while Allen kept it and got rocked (I missed 12-18 points because of dumb luck at the goal line, and I blame Allen because someone needs to be blamed for my fantasy woes).

McDermott is committed (smartly for the NFL, sad for FF) to a 60/40 Singletary-Moss split, but Moss may be out a few weeks and Singletary may just push on the gas past him to a nice 70/30 split when Moss returns.

Moss is not in Singletary’s league, yet…if he ever will be.

Singletary is an RB1 threat without Moss around…but Josh Allen taking rushing TDs makes DS more an RB2.

Singletary is a talent, but he didn’t look as good as Henderson…and Singletary looked really good.

-- Another efficient day from Jared Goff (23-32 for 321 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT). he’s really been solid/good+ since the last 5-6 games of 2019 into these first three games of 2020. Since the offense changed to use Tyler Higbee (2-40-0/2) more, Goff’s numbers have jumped.

But now we have to worry a bit about Higbee…4-5-2 for targets in three games in 2020. That extreme output of late 2019 has not been seen in 2020. The three TDs were great Week 2, but it was still only 5 catches for 54 yards.

It appears Higbee is more #5-10 type of TE1 than a #1-3 TE1. Going to be solid/good, sometimes great but we haven’t seen a continuation of the numbers/targets from 2019. Where Higbee might be a top 5 TE1 is if he goes more Mark Andrews – 3-4-5 catches, 30-40-50 yards in most games, but is getting 10+ TDs a season. Higbee might be headed there with the occasional 6+ catch, 70+ yard outburst…and thus can be a top 5 TE1.

Higbee is a plug and play more than a ‘guess which weeks are REALLY good vs. OK/good’.

-- What is a little amazing about this Bills win, this (3-0) start – it’s not led by the defense. I thought the Bills would be a top NFL defensive unit again his year. So far, they’re middle of the pack overall -- and bottom 12 in an area where they used to be #1-2-3 in the league – pass defense.

Jared Goff got back into this game comfortably…through the air, while DHendo gashed them on the ground. Yet, somehow the Bills are winning shootouts? That’s not the Bills that I know.

I bet McDermott turns this defense around/fixes the leak, to some degree, he’s as great a defensive mind as there is in the game. The schedule isn’t great ahead, so I’m on the sidelines for using their DST until Week 7 at NYJ.

-- Bills’ rookie WR Gabriel Davis (4-81-0/4) stepped up nicely for an in-game injured John Brown. Davis is quietly becoming one of the better rookie WRs from this class. Not the electricity for FF or highlights, but just a sound worker. Davis is like Van Jefferson (0-0-0/1) of the Rams. Eventually, they might be ‘the main target’ for their QBs, but that’s years from now and maybe never…perhaps always just ‘reliable’/professional (i.e. WR3s in FF at best).

-- Cole Beasley (6-100-0/7) is quietly having a good run again. I know…every time we try to get on this train for a week or two, he flops. When we don’t have him, he does this type of game. John Brown being out helped…a lot.

If Brown is out this week…Beasley is a legit PPR play/option.

Beasley is averaging 5.0 rec., 76.0 yards, 0.00 TDs per game so far this season.

-- Stefon Diggs (4-49-1/6) had a quiet game, but of course he did…he had Jalen Ramsey (1 tackle, 1 PD) chasing him. Still, Diggs had his moments. Ramsey is getting more on the overrated side now…still great when he wants, but he’s part of the bloated ‘star’ class of the McVay/Rams, something Sean McDermott would not want/allow. But Tre’Davious White (1 tackle) might be getting infected by this as well (he got paid right before the season started)…the Bills pass D is a shell of itself in 2020.

I’m all-in on Stefon Diggs. Hated him before the season, but what I’m seeing…I love. If you can get him on a semi-down game Week 3, reasonably, I’d go for it. He’s definitely not a ‘sell high’.

-- OK, are you ready for the ‘Horror Show’ (for some of you)?

I’ve been giving clues the last several notes/comments/bullet points.

Why have the Bills been winning despite the poor defensive numbers (for them)? It certainly hasn’t been the running game, I own a lot of Devin Singletary, I watch his work like a hawk…it’s not the running game totals, I can assure you. Endorsing Cole Beasley? Glowing about Stefon Diggs? Mentioning Gabriel Davis?

It’s all because Josh Allen (24-33 for 311 yards, 4 TDs/1 INT) is becoming/has become one of the five best quarterbacks in the NFL.

He’s also become one of the 2-3-5 best fantasy QBs in the game.

Now, you might think…”Sure, he’s off to a great start, everyone knows this. What are you making such a big deal about?”

No…I mean Josh Allen has really become one of the best QBs in the NFL, and thus one of the best for FF. Like…he’s not just legit/doing well – no, he’s becoming ‘high-end’. His numbers this year are fantastic…beyond ‘lucky streak’, and the four-minute, 4th-quarter comeback drive at the end of this game was Allen just being ‘too good’.

Allen is becoming so good that the Bills are turning into a passing team…on purpose. McDermott is no fool. I’m down with Stefon Diggs now. I’ll take note of Beasley (if Brown is out) this week. I’ll be interested in John Brown. I’m raising up everything Bills passing game related another notch. A big notch.

Allen is beating teams with his arm and his legs, but did I mention his arm? The 55% Completion Percentage passer year’s #1-2…is completing 71.1% of his passes so far in 2020. He beat a solid pass defense in the Rams this week, and an OK Miami one…and the Jets. I don’t think it’s a fluke on schedule ease.

So far this season for Allen: 10 TDs/1 INT, 2 rushing TDs, and all three games are 300+ yards.

Russell Wilson has 14 TDs/1 INT, 0 rushing TDs, and two of 3 games with 300+ yards.

Wilson and Allen are #1-2 in FF scoring per game (4pts per pass TD) so far.

I don’t know if Josh Allen took a magic potion or sold his soul to the devil and is now great…and all his accuracy issues are all fixed. I don’t know if it’s coaching. I don’t know if it’s offseason training. I don’t know if it's the addition of Stefon Diggs. Whatever it is…something has clicked with Josh Allen. He looks like the best QB in the NFL, to me, so far through three games…better than even Russell Wilson.

It’s not necessarily a ‘2020 thing’…in Allen’s last 16 regular season games, he’s thrown for 27 TDs and just 4 INTs…plus, rushed for 8 TDs.

I never thought I’d live in a world where Josh Allen has 27 TDs/4 INTs in a 16-game stretch. This could be the most wrong I’ve ever been on a QB scouting the way it’s going. I’ll have an offseason to go through and see what was missed/how this happened, but it’s nothing like I’ve ever seen – how can someone so inaccurate from college to his first two NFL seasons just become ‘an assassin’ in year three?

I’ll go ahead and get out in front of ‘changing’ here. I made fun of all the knuckleheads on the NFL’s Good Morning Football show who pushed Josh Allen as an MVP for 2020 in the preseason. What did they know? I’m a real scout…they’re stupid. Well…I’m the stupid one and I owe them an apology: https://youtu.be/-vMH7FslCcU

The prevailing wisdom on this Allen run is – it’s too good to be true…it’s a blip…it’s the schedule…he’ll crash back to earth. The ‘smart’ football people who have railed against him for years, celebrating their ‘rightness’ on him being too inaccurate to be a good, much less great, NFL QB – they will not change their tune fast enough. The ‘smart’ people’s upcoming move is to give it a pat on the head and go ‘he’s hot now, I didn’t see it coming…but bet against it ahead/sell high’. They will pay a backhanded compliment, but they don’t really believe it…I’ve done it plenty in my career in football scouting. Holding onto a bad hand for longer than I should not realizing something changed (or I was wrong).

Recent guys I’ve not been in love with but just got tired of seeing them do better than I expected, so I gave up…but now am not giving up my original feelings – Carson Wentz and Deshaun Watson. I never really thought they were as good as everyone thought but I had to relent because they were doing well year two of their careers…but are now crashing a bit. Could this ‘crash’ happen with Allen? With Wentz and Watson, they roared onto the scene and then tailed off. Allen stumbled onto the scene years one and part of two but he just keeps chopping wood/getting better.

Also, the way Allen has played the past three games…it’s better than I’ve ever seen Wentz or Watson play. Week 1…I was like -- ‘freaking lucky Allen’ (because I never own him). Week 2…I was like -- OK, enough. I’ll raise his projections to the moon to shut him up. Week 3…I was like, “Where have you been all my life…you beautiful creation of a QB!”

I’m fully on board with Josh Allen…I’m late, but I hope I’m ahead of a lot of people. Most people will have the same opinion of Allen this week as the old me (of 48+ hours ago)…”This too shall pass. He’s just been lucky. Better sell him high/hot before he regresses to his mean.”

Some random Samplings off the free interweb…

From Sporting News ‘Sell High’ list: Josh Allen (QB – BUF)

We’ve seen Allen’s big performances before, but truth be told, he posted QB1-type numbers in just 43.8 percent of his games last year. He does present a solid floor each week due to his mobility, but someone is surely going to value his big Week 1 performance and be willing to overpay.

From FantasyPros last week: Stefon Diggs (WR – BUF)

You won’t find a bigger fan of Diggs than me from a talent standpoint, but you’re kidding yourself if you think his WR1 production continues. Josh Allen hadn’t thrown for more than 266 yards prior to Week 1 of this year. He’s now thrown for a league-leading 729 yards through two weeks? This is a situation just begging to even itself out. If you’re able to get a top-15 wide receiver value for Diggs, you should take advantage of his hot start.

John Brown (WR – BUF)

Do you think the Bills are going to have two top-10 wide receivers at the end of the year? Yeah, neither do I. This is your opportunity to sell high on Brown, who has managed to rack up 10/152/2 over the first two weeks while Josh Allen leads the NFL in passing yards. Brown is going to pop off from time to time, but he’s not going to be an every-week starter. If you’re able to get top-30 value out of him in a trade, you should.

It's the general mood of the masses…Allen has been great for a few games, but don’t expect it to last. It’s all scheme not talent and no way Diggs and Brown can hold up. If I’m right (now)…that’s all wrong, WAY wrong…and that presents and opportunity to still buy lower priced than they should be guys in Diggs or Brown…and even Allen.

So, was that ‘The Horror Show’? You may be wondering…so you admitted you got Josh Allen wrong? So did a lot of people. No big deal…except you’re supposed to know this stuff before everybody else.

Sorry, I’m about to start the Horror Show.

Ready?

Deep breath.

I’m not sure that Josh Allen isn’t a better quarterback in general and for fantasy than Kyler Murray NOW or for the future. https://youtu.be/RP-hMSQEAE4

Let that marinate for a moment. And you know I’m not joking to bring up something like this. If you’re a Kyler owner and have been enjoying his FF success and feeling good about things, I just semi-kicked you in the stomach. Kyler is still a good thing, but Josh Allen is the better all-around QB from what I see.

But, RC…come on, man! Out of nowhere you switch from hate/dismissing of Allen and now you’re in love, and so much in love you’re pushing him over your beloved Kyler? I mean…Rome wasn’t built in a day. We’re just digesting that you love Allen and that he has been really good, but now we’re going this far already? I mean, buy me dinner first…

All valid points that I am definitely considering/debating with myself. However, did you see Kyler’s game Week 3? The highly inaccurate Josh Allen has 3 interceptions in his last 15 games, including one playoff game. Kyler Murray has three interceptions in the last 48+ hours. Mostly horrible picks to a wobbly secondary with no real pass rush and 2nd-string CBs starting.

Kyler has 10 TDs/12 INTs in his last 8 NFL games. Josh Allen has 10 picks in his last season and three games + a playoff game (20 games).

Kyler’s advanced metrics indicate a guy throwing short passes a bunch…and when he extends out to further downfield passes he’s missing them or turning it over.

On 3rd and 4+ yards to go this season, known passing downs…

15 of 27 (55.6%), 172 yards, 1 TD/3 INTs, 9 first downs = Kyler

15 of 19 (79.0%), 181 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT, 12 first downs = Allen

On 10 or more yards to go on any down this season…

48 of 71 (67.6%), 549 yards, 2 TDs/5 INTs, 22 1st-downs, 5 sacks = Kyler

56 of 72 (77.8%), 823 yards, 2 TDs/0 INTs, 27 1st-downs, 5 sacks = Allen

Now, for FF…Kyler is rushing for better totals and more TDs, but he better keep that up because Allen is running pretty well (like usual) too and he’s destroying things as a passer.

As a scout of things, I watch Kyler 2020 and I love that he’s running more for FF. But watching him as a passer – same dull offense. Quick hitters to short receivers that if DeAndre Hopkins got hurt, I think Kyler would be screwed. Hopkins has been so great after the catch that it’s helped prop up Kyler’s mediocre passer totals. Kyler’s air yards per pass are very low. He’s dinking and dunking more than anyone cares to admit.

Allen is throwing all over…short, medium, deep with accuracy and in pressure situations and he’s not turning the ball over. He also looks 10,000 times better to my eye than Kyler as a passer right now. And that’s not a total slam on Kyler. I’m more marveling at how really good Allen has become.

In addition, I don’t trust Kliff Kingsbury…at all. What I see in this 2020 offense is very similar to 2019 and is still very basic…and is DeAndre Hopkins based/centric. Is Kyler going to get better under Kingsbury? Are we at peak Kyler? You see how much Kyler throws into danger now…and how much he sulks on the sidelines? He, to me, is not a leader and is not getting better as a passer – he’s just running more. He’s a good passer. Very natural. But I don’t see a ‘next level’ yet. I doubt Kingsbury ever pushes Kyler at all – the kid runs the parent in that relationship. The inmates run the asylum.

Not so with McDermott-Allen. McDermott is rapidly improving Allen, and Allen is a tough-minded, puts his body on the line type of leader. I don’t think Allen is going to fall off or pout. McDermott wouldn’t have it. Kingsbury would with Kyler.

Long term…what if Kingsbury gets fired? I think Kyler would have a meltdown and be a handful and not want to play in any different system. I could be wrong. Allen is being groomed into a system and is being let off the chain because he earned it.

Would you take Josh Allen in a trade for Kyler Murray, straight up, in FF today? You probably would not. Therein lies my point for you to consider…

I think most people see Kyler as an ‘A’ talent…a razzle-dazzle, MVP candidate, future star. I think most people see Josh Allen as ‘lucky’…as a ‘C-D’ QB having a good moment, but is really a ‘C-D’ grade QB and he’ll fall back there soon.

My question to myself is – If I could get Josh Allen + a great ___ for Kyler, in this time of the hype Kyler is getting…would I do it? Should I do it? It could be I get the equal/better QB in Allen AND a great player to go-with.

I don’t want to panic you too much on Kyler. I suspect 50%+ of Dynasty people reading this own Kyler (and 0% own Allen…and that’s going to change right now/this week). I am wrestling with the question of whether we are at peak Kyler and now is a great time to sell sky high, because he is starting to worry me a touch…his Week 3 game was not good. His latest trends are not great (as a passer). Could I sell Kyler + to get Mahomes in a deal (not after that MNF game I can’t)?

Or…regardless of Kyler, should I be pushing for a deal for any type of slick deal on Josh Allen before everyone really figures it out…or will Allen revert? My scouting eye/gut says this Allen run is not luck/too good to be a blip.

At a minimum…I need to take Josh Allen way more seriously. Some of you do too and it’s my fault you don’t.

Snap Counts of Interest:

61 = Diggs

46 = G Davis

38 = Beasley

29 = Jo Brown

17 = McKenzie

67 = Woods

62 = Kupp

62 = Josh Reyn

08 = Van Jefferson

34 = M Brown

34 = D Henderson

: R.C. Fischer; FFM; 29 September 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 3: Game Analysis: Titans 31, Vikings 30

*TUE 9/29 Video Q&A – Special Time: 7pmET-830pmET*

The Vikings went up 24-12 with 8+ minutes left in the 3rd-quarter and it just felt like it was going to be a Minnesota win…that the (0-2) team would rise up to take down the (2-0) team that had been skating by on some luck to be undefeated. They seemed evenly matched enough and it was a simple game of ‘let’s see who is better’ the side giving the ball to Derrick Henry every play or the side giving the ball to Dalvin Cook every play.

The Derrick Henry side won in the end.

Could’ve gone either way but the Titans just felt like they were playing ‘like winners’ and Minnesota just isn’t playing with any confidence or pizazz. Just the mood of the game or I was just projecting into it…but it seemed Tennessee was not rattled and Minnesota puckered up down the stretch.

The Vikings feel like they need a ‘hard reboot’…just flush the system and rebuild. Cousins and Cook and Thielen and Zimmer are nice, but not nice enough to be a juggernaut. Perhaps Danielle Hunter returns and is an adrenaline shot instead of a reboot, but he might be weeks away and the season is lost by then. Not having the home field advantage anymore really stings the Vikings. Minnesota plays at Houston Week 4 in a game that is going to likely end one team’s season unofficially.

Tennessee is (3-0)…three wins by a combined 6 points. They’ve beaten teams that are a combined (1-8). And lucky to have beaten any of them. The clock is ticking on Tennessee. A three game homestand against PIT-BUF-HOU could expose this team, but if they come out of it (4-2), they’ve got the schedule to win 9-10 games this year.

Fantasy Player Notes…

-- Let’s get this out of the way first, the main thing I watched from the tape study: Justin Jefferson (7-175-1/9). Is he worthy of the top waiver spot this week…is he a FF wide receiver savior this week/ahead?

No, I don’t think so.

Jefferson is good/solid, he might even be very good…eventually. I just think it’s a bit early/rash to start jumping on his bandwagon and thinking he’s going to carry your wounded warrior WR group right now. If I were to have him/had acquired him this week – I would sell him hot/high as best I could.

It won’t get any better than ‘rookie’ + 100+ yard game + the big game happened last week/fresh in our minds.

Sure, there’s a place for him here – the clear #2 WR where Adam Thielen (3-29-1/5) will get the main coverage, but this is the #27 passing game in the NFL, a new O-C, a stuffy head coach who wants to run every play…and Jefferson is good-not-great, and if he is great it’s not yet.

People are going to go crazy for him this week. The funny part is that in leagues where Allen Lazard is not taken (which is a crime if you let that happen)…Lazard had just as big of a Week 3, plays with a superior offense/QB, and is more experienced and has a #1 WR who takes all the coverage…and Lazard will get half or less the interest. People are going to reach here because they LOVE magical unicorn rookies…especially if they owned them first! Why…it will be so magical and glorious to be the first to plant my flag…

Jefferson is as good as any WR2-3 option out there, but most of them you can get for a lot less today.

-- In this same game, Kalif Raymond (3-118-0/3) had three huge catches and a 100+ yard game, and…yaaaawwwwnnn. Why…he can’t be any good? He can’t be magical or a unicorn because he’s not a rookie…and, ewwww, he wasn’t even drafted. Yuck. Gross. And he didn’t even catch 4 TD passes from Joe Burrow in a college game I watched either, so moving on…

Raymond is a solid rotational #4 WR teams forget about and he just beats them deep for a/one play a week…this game it was three, a first for him.

In other Titans WR news, Corey Davis (5-69-0/6) had another forgettable game.

As soon as A.J. Brown returns, every Titans WR goes back to their normal flow.

-- The normal flow for the Titans passing game includes Jonnu Smith (5-61-0/8). Jonnu is Tannehill’s #2 guy now from what I see…#1 with AJB out, but #2 when he returns – and in a low volume, high efficiency passing game.

Jonnu is a higher-end TE1 talent who will be a low-end TE1 producer for FF/PPR with Brown back. He’ll be stable/solid but limited upside still showing due to the passing game.

-- Darrynton Evans (3-9-0) made his debut. He didn’t flash or show anything, but it was limited touches in his first ever game. Looked below average, but that’s normal for a rookie. I think he’s a ‘C to C+’ type talent…buried behind Derrick Henry. No more, no less…but he would be the guy if Henry went down.

-- The number of emails and questions I got about trading away Derrick Henry (26-119-2, 2-11-0/3) last week was crazy, but expected.

Whenever a player has two weak FF games (especially if Weeks 1-2)…owners panic and the price drops and the urgency to ‘change for the sake of change’ is high. All that goes away now with this 2 TD game.

If you wanted to sell Henry, the time is now…off this type of week. The crazy fantasy thing that destroys FF teams is the weak-minded, fly-by-night ever-changing emotional management of selling low and buying high – last week you would have traded Henry reasonably for whatever. Now, just one week later, Henry is untouchable for you/the price is 5x higher for what you’d want in exchange. All in one week?

The fantasy mind is a fascinating, frightening thing.

That’s why I keep railing and encouraging the (0-3) teams…it’s an easy trap to fall into, an easy (defeated) mindset to adopt and accelerates the downfall of struggling teams. And all you (2-1) and (1-2) teams…you’re a week away/a loss away from potentially falling down the same rabbit hole of illogicalness. You should read all the (0-3) stuff from today as a cautionary tale.

For every 100 people who listen to my patience message, one person will be helped/will take it to heart. I do it for ‘the one’ and have hope for ‘the 99’. Sometimes you need to hear it a thousand times before it clicks in and changes your process. I only know because I deal with this with so many people for so many years now…I’ve been to the future. I know how this movie goes. I was one of those who learned the hard way myself. I know of what I speak.

-- Vikes CB Holton Hill (7 tackles) cannot stop getting 7 tackles in a game! He’s hit 7 total tackles three games in a row now. Which is impressive for a cornerback. Note he’s 6’2”/200+ at CB…he’s like a safety at corner.

Hill is the #15 DB in IDP scoring per game (FPros data). The #5 CB in IDP scoring…one tackle from being #3 among CBs.

Snap Counts of Interest:

61 = Thielen

51 = J Jefferson

22 = Beebe

05 = Bisi J.

55 = Corey Davis

45 = Cam Batson

39 = Humphries

20 = Raymond

: R.C. Fischer; FFM; 28 September 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 2 Game Analysis: Ravens 33, Texans 16

The Texans were never in this game, really…but they weren’t ‘out of it’ for most of the time. They were just undermanned/under talented/under-gunned/out-coached. It’s not a crime. The Ravens are blowing through all comers. And to no surprise, the Ravens blew through the Texans.

We don’t know how good or bad the Texans are because they’ve played the two best teams in football Weeks 1-2…the clear, beyond two best teams in football. Their crime is losing to both. They have a do-or-die game with Pittsburgh this week that I wouldn’t be surprised if they smoked the Steelers with their backs against the wall.

If Houston can get to (1-2), then a 9+ win season is very possible ahead and playoff hopes. If they dig an (0-3) hole, they are going to have to work to get to 9 wins/the playoffs. Huge game here.

Baltimore can go all-in Week 3 vs. KC…they have at WAS, CIN, at PHI the following three weeks. I have a feeling the Ravens are going to put on a show vs. KC, but KC also doing showtime as well. It’s going to be an epic game of the two best teams in football…again…with no one else in the discussion.

Fantasy Player Notes…

-- If you got Jordan Akins (7-55-0/7) last week, ahead of this game, as we were hinting strongly at…you got a star FF TE in the making on your team. He looks fantastic. The best ‘out of nowhere’ TE that I have seen this season. Some TEs are up on a blip for the moment, a good game/play/matchup or even the QB choice (like C.J. Uzomah was blipping, but he’s not ‘good’, per se…or Mo Alie-Cox)…but Akins is for real. I would dare say he’s Deshaun Watson’s favorite receiver right now.

I think you can have some pretty nice PPR TE1 trust…a guy who will go 5+ catches every game and get 5-7 TDs on the season. He looks and is playing great.

-- You know who will be great? J.K. Dobbins (2-48-0, 1-13-0/1).

We’re all celebrating and chasing Joshua Kelley and Jonathan Taylor and D’Andre Swift and Clyde Edwards-Helaire or James Robinson for various reasons and most all of them warranted. JKD’s crime is he’s stuck on the Ravens’s roster/depth chart.

I’d argue Dobbins is the best-looking runner of the ball of the group – him and Taylor. Whenever Dobbins gets unleashed, which may not be until 2021, he might lead the league in rushing or just runs over 20+ yards. He’s a great fit in a great offense…once they give it over to him, which might happen in-season later..

-- Not the best-looking back this day…David Johnson (11-34-0, 2-16-0/4).

I watched every single run of his here, most of them I looked a 2nd-time in slow motion to see what he was seeing/missing or was it the blocking. I thought DJ, overall, did fine. He just had little space to run. He made a few ‘something out of nothing’ runs but also missed a few holes (maybe). He looks fine+ physically, power-wise, and nimble. I’m not concerned about him at all.

I’m am concerned about two things with DJ:

1) Don’t like the Steelers matchup at all. He’s DJ, so he could do something magical or fall into the end zone for a TD…but it’s a bad mix, on paper, for Houston’s run game vs. the #1 run defense in the league. If the Steelers watch this tape vs. BAL, they’ll copycat it and shut down the run game.

2) Deshaun Watson is not throwing to him on purpose at all. No set plays on screens from Bill O’Brien. I have no idea what the Texans could be thinking, except being blind to your own talent is a proud motto in the NFL.

Watson did have him open for an easy TD toss off a scramble but then Watson slipped on a banana peel and slid to the ground and threw the ball 10 feet short of an open-in-the-end-zone DJ – we got robbed of a DJ TD.

DJ also lined up outside as a WR one play and beat his safety deep, like he could every play if they looked at it, but Watson threw it five feet over his head…a missed 25+ yard pass easy. We had 10-11 points stolen from us by the FF gods that absolutely hate me right now. I’ll have my revenge…the real God will help me, no need to fear!

-- A quick note on each QB…

1) Deshaun Watson (25-36 for 275 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 5-17-0) looked a bit better on tape than my mind thought live. I mean that from a running standpoint…Watson had a little juice in his legs. It’s just the Ravens were just turned up to ‘11’ and the Texans were helpless to respond.

Kind of a do-or-die game Week 3 at PIT. I bet Watson runs a lot to try to save the season – when he feels urgency, he adds more running to his game. This could be a decent FF week on that front…or the PITT-D is too good, like Baltimore and it’s another dud. Hope and fear.

2) Lamar Jackson (18-24 204 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 16-54-0) didn’t have a huge game and thus people with him lost their fantasy game to other big QB performances. Lamar and Deshaun killed their owners Week 2…not only with their duds here but the fact so many other QBs are now rising up to do the same FF-thing (big running, decent passing) this whole season.

You thought Lamar was on a pedestal as a runner-thrower and then Watson was a step behind in the same way, but Cam Newton and Josh Allen are rolling better numbers as runner-passers so far. Their rise takes the value out of Lamar/Deshaun…Deshaun-Lamar are not in a class of their own, others are joining…it’s like the fed printing money and inflation ensues.

You need these guys running big because they aren’t typically passing for their FF stats. I fear Watson got paid and ultimately his urgency, in general, still seems down. Lamar is trying to get paid, so I think you’ll see his numbers pop ahead as he takes TDs and rush yards to try to get to the next $500M contract. He can’t afford for Cam to be a $500M less cost/same value version.

I’m really worried Deshaun is the lesser runner and lesser passer than Lamar, Kyler, Josh, and Cam…and then when Mahomes, Russ, Dak, Tannehill enter the discussion…it pushes Watson further down the chain of FF QBs. You might need a strong Plan B for Watson in case he’s a #10-15 QB this season…not #3-6.

-- Brandin Cooks (5-95-0/8) had a solid game for Houston, after a Week 1 dud. Will Fuller getting smoked by Ravens coverage pushed Cooks, and then Fuller checked out with injury (because that’s his norm).

I don’t think you can count on Cooks as any more than a random WR3-4…guys like Keelan, Gage, etc. are going to be as good.

Will Fuller is proving out to be nothing but a hoax. You can only work him in great matchups. Cooks is useful when Fuller gets tough matchups.

-- Three IDP notes…

1) BAL LB Tyus Bowser (3 tackles, 1.0 sacks, 2 QB hits) has a sack each game this year. He has nice pass rush skills and is playing a little more. Maybe he’s in for an 8+ sack season. His sack here was ‘lucky’.

2) J.J. Watt (2 tackles, 2 sacks) is ‘back’ in a sense…2.0 sacks this game (first two of the year) but note he has 5 QB hits so far this year…among the league leaders. He’s playing DT in various spots and that’s a nice mix up for him/offenses to contend with.

3) HOU CB Bradley Roby (2 tackles) is entering the shutdown corner conversation. Nice job with Tyreek Week 1 and Marquise Brown (5-42-0/6) here.

Week 3 – Who Roby chases is going to matter for FF Week 3…is it JuJu or Diontae? I think it will be JuJu but Roby will mix things up or not chase time-to-time to give a window to the opposing WR. You hope for your PIT WR that Roby is not chasing them.

Subsequently, whomever gets Vernon Hargreaves on them…a big winner. It might be Washington/Claypool…more Claypool.

Snap Counts of Interest:

56 = David Johnson

53 = Cooks

49 = Akins

24 = Fells

27 = Ingram

20 = Edwards

20 = Dobbins