- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 2 Game Analysis: Titans 33, Jaguars 30
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
This game was 14-0 Titans 10 minutes into the 1st-quarter -- and I thought this was the Jags collapse after a lucky Week 1.
For the next 50 minutes the Jags outscored the Titans 30-19, but on a final drive to get in field goal range, which they were likely to be and possibly get a TD to win it, a Minshew pass was batted down and into a D-Lineman’s hands for a game-ending INT. The Jaguars should be (1-1)…winning this game, and losing last week to the Colts (the reverse of that happened). They had a real chance to be (2-0) to start the season.
The Jaguars represent a football theory you can run with in this particular era – gut all the bloated payroll guys and just run with a bunch of ‘poor’ (no 1st-round picks at QB-RB-WR), hungry, high character guys and let them try and outplay the bloated millionaires. It’s an odd class warfare version of football. It’s also a very coachable group who ‘yes, sir…no, sir’ the head coach…until it’s their time to be paid. It works right now for the Jags (see to: the 2nd-half of 2019 season Miami Dolphins). The Jags aren’t winning the Super Bowl, but they are not to be trifled with.
The Jaguars lead the NFL in 3rd-down conversion percentage…after facing two pretty good defenses (IND and TEN) so far this year. You don’t do that if you’re ‘bad at football’ or ‘tanking’. They are the furthest from tanking. Keelan Cole is playing every snap for his life/livelihood. Odell Beckham can’t wait for the season to be over so he can go buy more cars, houses, and yachts and take more vacations.
I swear, I’m not a Bernie Sanders’ supporter!
I will take the Jaguars and lay the -3.0 to throttle the Dolphins this week on TNF. Miami…a Dolphins team that gutted its bloated roster last year, became a winning team with it 2nd-half of the season…and then went out and spent a ton of money in the offseason to bring in new bloated payroll guys. Looks like that is working out well…
I would not be surprised if Jacksonville is not (4-2) heading into their Week 7 BYE.
The Titans are (2-0) and could very well be (0-2). The Titans are getting out to fast leads and then stalling and hanging on for wins against teams they are supposed to be better than. Another (9-7) season is coming…I can feel it. But they just keep winning, so…
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Let’s talk about the two QBs here…both are legit fantasy QB1s now.
Gardner Minshew (30-45 for 339 yards, 3 TDs/2 INTs) was one of my late redraft 2nd QBs on the roster guys (along with Burrow and Stafford)…and that’s already paid off. FFM Dynasty leagues are littered with Minshew investments as a cheap 2nd or 3rd QB when everyone else thought that was dumb back to last year. If you didn’t land Minshew this offseason in Dynasty, you were either loaded at QB already or you wouldn’t believe me. Too late now…now everyone is onto him as legit…for the NFL and FF.
He’s talented + this team will have to throw a bunch + he has really good WRs. He’s a QB1 this year, period.
-- Who I did not see coming…and who I did not believe in…was Ryan Tannehill (18-24 for 239 yards, 4 TDs/0 INT). He keeps playing great and I keep fighting it waiting for ‘you know Tannehill won’t keep this up’ to happen…but I’ve been saying that for 15 starts/games of his now. At what point will I realize I’m stupid?
This week, I might have realized it.
I mean, I used him late last year to get over in places…but I kept waiting for the rug to get pulled out every time. I didn’t believe it the whole time it was happening last year, as I was prospering from it. Now, here I am again looking past it. I’m not alone.
You wanna know how good Tannehill has been?
He took over as full starter Week 7 of last year, and logged 10 regular season game starts, three playoff games, and two games so far in 2020…15 games as a starter for TEN. His record in that time: (11-4).
His numbers in those 15 games…
271 comp./397 att. = 69.3% Comp Pct.
3,455 yards passing (230.3 per game)
33 TDs/6 INTs (2.2 passing TDs per game)
245 rushing yards (16.3 per game)
5 rushing TDs
Where does all this rank in the QB universe?
22.4 FF PPG (4pts per pass TD)…that pace would have made him the #2 QB in all FF PPG in 2019.
26.4 FF PPG (6pts per pass TD)…right with Mahomes fighting for #2 in 2019.
33 passing TDs in a season would have been tied for 2nd-most in the NFL last year.
Guess where he’s ranked for passing TDs so far in 2020? 2nd-most with Ryan-Allen-Rodgers-Minshew.
You’re not getting wild 300+ yard passing games from Tannehill, but you’re getting 2 TD passes almost every week. In his 15 Tennessee starts, he has thrown for 2 or more TD passes 13 times.
Defenses so overplay Derrick Henry to run, as they should…it gives Tannehill the clearance to throw efficiently, against limited coverage and allows him to pick defenses apart as needed.
Ryan Tannehill is a QB1 for 2020…sitting on waivers a lot this week. Available in trade for almost nothing. Why do we not care? Because the NFL is doing big stories or commercials with him. He doesn’t have a funny beard or mustache that NFL analysts judge QB talent on. He’s not a magical rookie. He’s not a runner, per se (but better than people realize) – he’s just really, really good and has been good for 15 games and we don’t care.
I’m usually not in great need of a QB. I already got an ace at the top and Minshew/Burrow/Stafford in the hole…but is Tannehill better than Stafford right now? Or better than Minshew or Burrow? It’s not as crazy a question as you might think.
At Minnesota this week…that should be sweet/solid too.
Versus PIT-BUF Weeks 4-5 is no good, in theory, but he seems to always do fine…but then Week 6 HOU, Week 7 bye, Week 8 CIN is back to good opportunities v. HOU and CIN.
-- When Tannehill is working, he doesn’t tend to lean on one receiver. He spreads it around. He’s hard to figure out for FF…what receivers to chase with him.
A.J. Brown is his guy, but with AJB out…Jonnu Smith (4-84-2/5) is more his guy. But remember, Tannehill is just efficient and tossing TDs…not a ton of yards/completions. Thus, Jonnu is now deemed a star because of his 2 TD game, but outside of that: 4.0 rec., 60.0 yards, 6.0 targets per game YTD…that’s not high-end TE1 activity. Not enough targets/action on a regular basis, but definitely TE1 material.
If you think Corey Davis (3-36-1/5) is rising up without AJB…it’s not really happening. Davis is likely to score a TD with AJB out, but still lowly targeted (for a de facto #1 WR with AJB out). Davis is a random option in a low volume/high TD passing game. Better for non-PPR as a flex/flyer.
When Davis has to be a #1, like this game – high-end rookie CB C.J. Henderson easily shut him off most of the game. Davis operates better in the shadows but is not Tannehill’s #1 or #2 or even #3 look most drop backs.
-- What’s wrong with Derrick Henry (25-84-0, 0-0-0/2)? Nothing. Teams are stacking him (as they do), and he hasn’t had his moment yet. He will. He’ll be fine. He’ll be an RB1 ranked PPG producer soon despite the slow start.
-- James Robinson (16-102-1, 3-18-0/4) still looks very pedestrian on tape to me. But he’s fine. He’s not terrible…but the beauty is – when you get all the touches, good FF things tend to happen.
I don’t know if Ryquell Armstead makes any dent in touches upon a return or not. But it looks like James Robinson all the way for the near future. We’re all excited about him, but the moment he has like two 15-55-0 games in a row, people will turn on him/treat him like an RB3.
I like to dangle JRob out in deals now with a so-so WR to land a Joe Mixon, etc., in a deal,
-- This Jaguars WR group is really humming…
D.J. Chark (4-84-0/4) looks totally fine. I don’t know why the targets are so down (just 3.5 targets per game so far), but he looks fine/open/is making plays.
Minshew doesn’t have to lean on him for everything, so we’re getting low targets…at the same time DJC gets the best coverage. If he has a big Week 3…all will be deemed fine. I am concerned that it’s two games with low targets. One low game can be a blip. Two makes me pause. I’m not buying or selling Chark right now…I’m holding and seeing where this goes. I’d be a buyer more than seller. Chark is too good to be 4 targets a game guy.
He’s going to have a 7-150-2 game soon, and everyone will be back on board again. Thursday night vs. MIA might be the spot for reemergence if Byron Jones is out.
Also, consider… Minshew is so efficient, he’s not going to have a ton of targets because he has a ton of completions. Chark (or others) might get only 5-6-7 targets in a game but catch 5-6-7 passes, and that’s what you want…catches not targets. Unconnected targets/lofty target levels can be misleading. You want connections/completions.
Keelan Cole (6-58-1/7) is playing beautiful football, but he’s risen to FF-power on a TD in each of his first two games…the moment he has a 4-47-0/6 game, he’ll be less than Cole Beasley for people. No one really believes in him, so I’m happy to have him now…or wait for him to be on waivers again if taken this week.
I was really impressed with Laviska Shenault (3-35-0/4, 5-37-0) this game. I’ve been on the sidelines on Shenault this whole time because I didn’t see him being athletic enough to really pop with these ‘unique’ touches he’s getting. That he would be fine, but Curtis Samuel is getting in the same range of touches but he isn’t deemed as exciting because he’s not a magical unicorn rookie.
7 carries, 47 yards rushing, 6 rec. (8 targets), 72 yards receiving, 61% of snaps played = Shenault YTD
5 carries, 31 yards rushing, 7 rec. (10 targets), 51 yards receiving, 72% of snaps played = Samuel YTD
I was impressed with Shenault’s catching ability in this game. He’s really made hay on some errant/off-target/only-where-the-WR-can-get-them throws. He’s a legit WR3/flex kinda option. I don’t know that he can consistently go much higher than that.
-- Some Jags IDPs of note…
C.J. Henderson (6 tackles, 1 PD) gives this Jags defense a shutdown corner immediately…so, beware on Preston Williams AGAIN this week drawing top cover corner #3 in-a-row.
Andrew Wingard (9 tackles) is the new safety and he is a tackle machine…a linebacker mind playing safety. He’ll do well for IDP as a Jags’ starter.
Snap Counts of Interest:
54 = Jonnu
50 = Corey Davis
34 = Batson (wow)
34 = Humphries
28 = Raymond
59 = Chark
51 = Cole
43 = Shenault
34 = Conley
08 = Collin Johnson
38 = James Robinson
31 = Chris Thompson
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 2 Game Analysis: Colts 28, Vikings 11
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
The Computer felt great about MIN in this game for some reason, so I joined in against my better judgment…and not good…not good at all.
The Vikings drove right down the field opening drive and settled for a field goal. The 1st-quarter ended 3-0 MIN. Looked like a slog was in store…neither team looking particularly sharp. Then the Colts decided to run every play and jam it down the Vikings’ throats with Jonathan Taylor, and they did. Minnesota slept the rest of the game and got smacked around for the second game in a row this year.
The Vikings are better than this, but time is running out fast – they play three playoff teams in a row (TEN, at HOU, at SEA) and their season may be over by Week 5.
The Colts are the #1 pass defense in yards allowed, #4 best in QB rating allowed, #3 best in yards per completion allowed. They are #5 best in rushing yards per game allowed. The Colts are suddenly a sneaky power run game and higher-end defensive unit. They should be the favorites to win the AFC South for sure…unless Philip Rivers breaks down too much before the finish line…he does not look great…
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- T.Y. Hilton (3-28-0/5) is not ‘shot’…he’s lost a step, but not shot/done yet. Good news is he’s still viable, bad news is he’s not the same ‘stud’ he used to be. I was hoping he’d be a sneaky WR1 candidate from the middle redraft rounds…he’s probably not.
He is working the slot and still ‘T.Y.’, so he gets respect. But superstar weeks look fewer and further apart now. Rivers is not selling his soul to throw it to him. He did/forced it a few times this game, but T.Y. is not really open as much as he used to be. Hilton did spring open for a 40+ yard TD, 2+ yards ahead of coverage, and Rivers floated right to him in stride and Hilton dropped it.
Could’ve been circumstantial on the dropped TD: https://www.indystar.com/story/sports/nfl/colts/colts-insider/2020/09/21/colts-coach-frank-reich-t-y-hilton-lost-deep-ball-sun/5858385002/
I can look past a dropped TD in the sun…but not seeing Rivers ache to get T.Y. the ball is worrying me.
-- Michael Pittman (4-37-0/6) looked like an old pro in his first real work of 2020…he looked fine. But also, Rivers was not killing to get the ball to him either. But Rivers looked more comfortable with Pittman than Hilton, honestly.
The receivers might be fine here…but Rivers may be the bigger issue…that he can’t get them to the FF-promised land in 2020. Did you see Mike Williams’ stats last year? Not having Parris Campbell to take heat/coverage/focus away is not going to help anybody either.
When we lost Parris Campbell, we lost a junior Diontae Johnson pop that was in progress. It’s a crying shame.
-- Mo Alie-Cox (5-111-0/6) got the special treatment from Rivers but it was open/available/working and MAC bobbled the incoming treats but gathered them in for a big day.
Alie-Cox is fine, but when Jack Doyle comes back Mo is no mo, for FF. Then Trey Burton comes back soon too.
-- The Colts offense IS Jonathan Taylor (26-101-1, 2-9-0/2). As Josh Jacobs is to Jon Gruden, as Derrick Henry is to Mike Vrabel…so goes Taylor to Frank Reich now. Taylor is an undisputed RB1 for the ROS.
If he goes down it will be a Wilkins/Hines split they’re stuck with.
-- Where was Nyheim Hines (1-4-0/1)…top FF star of Week 1? He played 9 snaps…no clue why he was so limited. He wasn’t hurt.
I think they just power run gamed it and then when under control got Jordan Wilkins (9-40-0) extended training camp work to get him up to speed.
Hines will have better, more useful days ahead…you’d think.
-- Not much to say for the Vikings here for FF or otherwise. Same old same old Vikings. Kirk Cousins (11-26 for 113 yards, 0 TD/3 INTs) looks uninspired to say the least.
It was about this time last year, Cousins started so poorly and everyone tried to replace him with Sean Mannion. How’d that turn out for Cousins/Minnesota in the end?
-- Justin Jefferson (3-44-0/3) played a few more snaps, saw a few more targets this week…still don’t see a big star happening anytime soon. He may end up with BYE week value ahead just because the Vikings have nothing else to turn to, as Adam Thielen (3-31-0/8) was doubled all game it seemed.
-- Alexander Mattison (3-13—0, 1-3-0/2) seems like nothing, but you’ve seen all the ACLs…right? If Dalvin Cook gets one, Mattison an RB1 candidate in his place.
Keelan Cole and Russell Gage and such are cute, but none of them are going to be future WR1s. If you’re holding a WR like that as last roster spot guys for a gamble/depth…you might rather try to guess the next ACL-birthed superstar waiver RB of the week…for next week.
-- I mentioned some of the numbers on the Colts-DST earlier…they have strong defensive metrics and are the current #3 DST in fantasy with the Jets to face this week…and then the Bears…and then Cleveland…and then Cincy. A great four-week run with Indy-DST head. Might be a keep through their Week 8 BYE.
Snap Counts of Interest:
67 = Pittman
59 = Pascal
42 = Hilton
49 = J Taylor
17 = Wilkins
09 = Hines
48 = Thielen
42 = Bisi Johnson
29 = J Jefferson
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 2 Game Analysis: Bears 17, Giants 13
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
This game was 17-0 Bears at the half. It looked like what many expected…the Bears are OK, and the Giants are terrible…no big deal. In the second half, the Giants shut out the Bears and came back to within 4 points with chances at the end…but they couldn’t pull through.
This is a story of two bad teams playing a game, and one of them mercifully won. Not much more to say about it top side. The Bears are highly overrated and are going to crash to earth soon and should be 0-2 right now. The Giants are properly rated. But they are trying hard.
A lesson to 2-0/0-2 FF teams out there…Houston is 0-2, Chicago is 2-0. Do their records really represent how good/bad their teams are? Do you think the Bears will have more wins than they Texans in the end? It’s early. Some teams played DET and NYG and others played KC and BAL…the records are not indicative of reality. We need more weeks to play out to find reality.
Oh, and I’m going to reveal a gem at the end (saving it to the end) that you’re not going to want to miss…and be careful how excited you get. Keep it in context.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- What about the Giants backfield now?
First…will Saquon Barkley (4-28-0) get the ‘always injured’ label for 2021 redraft…like David Johnson or Leonard Fournette have had to deal with for years, even if not really true? Nope. Have you seen his quads? The media loves Saquon, so his value will barely change. He might plummet from the #1-2 overall player to the #4-5…oh, the horror.
With him gone, the Giants are set to roll with Dion Lewis (10-20-1, 4-36-0/5). And that makes Lewis an RB2 in PPR, and probably for non-PPR as well. The Giants have a lot of pressure to ‘win now’. Joe Judge wants to book his first win…and Dave Gettleman is on a serious hot seat. The schedule ahead is terrible for NYG/Lewis…SF-LAR-DAL-WAS-PHI-TB-WAS-PHI, some of the top run defenses in the league except for WAS 2x. However, that’s where Lewis has to play a lot…to block and be the rock for the team in a very tough situation.
If NYG was signing Devonta Freeman, they would have done so already…I suspect. Still possible he signs today, but NYG has to see that they have no chance this year and Freeman isn’t changing the game upon arrival either.
The sleeper play in this, but not a radical one, is Wayne Gallman (DNP)…the problem is, Saquon went down and Gallman registered no snaps that I see. It was all Dion Lewis. Gallman had a great camp, was drawing buzz I was keeping tabs on him to be the #2 back…but he was named #3 back and didn’t see any touches in the Saquon-crisis here.
Dion Lewis is ‘the man’ for the foreseeable future – a solid enough RB, getting heavy touches, junk-time PPR work, but against a very tough schedule behind a weak O-Line. Better for PPR than not, but his volume might make up for schedule/O-Line some on rushing. Lewis might get some crazy catch counts in this offense. I’d chase him pretty hard in PPR for those in need, because I don’t know if everyone is that excited about him – but they know he’s in a good spot at the moment, but Devonta visiting is scaring them some.
The Giants may add a back, just not Devonta. Lewis is an ex-Patriot on a team coached by an ex-Patriot…so, Lewis gets special treatment/status. I’d roll with it if I have to. Lewis is in a similar spot as James Robinson, for example – ‘the guy’ behind a weak O-Line. Only Lewis has no challenger for the PPR work like Robinson.
-- I love a buy low on Evan Engram (6-65-0/8) now. The Giants will be throwing a lot and Engram is the security blanket and mismatch opportunity. He’s going to pop and then you’ll be mad you didn’t try to get…if you need help at TE.
-- I’d like to think Darius Slayton (3-33-0/6) is in line for more work/better FF days, but watching him in this game – too much going deep for Slayton while Daniel Jones throws underneath. Slayton is their best WR, and Jones’s fave WR now…but that’s probably WR2 cap at best.
I like Slayton as a buy low off this down week…but buy LOW. Not fair value. Those having WR issues…it’s guys like Slayton (not the biggest names, but in offenses with a lot of passing on game flows, and are talented, AND coming off a down week) that are the cheaper targets to help re-make your WR group if needed. If his owner wants to profess love and treat Slayton like gold, then move on. There’s other/better WRs to pursue for the price.
*Sterling Shepard (2-29-0/4) is already hurt again, so now the shift to Engram-Slayton should be coming on stronger.
-- Allen Robinson (3-33-0/9) is not necessarily on my ‘buy low’ list. This passing game is awful, and people want to dump ARob, but still think he’s a strong WR1…he’s more of a weak WR1.
If I can get ARob as a WR2 valuation, then I’m interested…I still see his owners holding tight. I think he’s a smart get-cheap, but I’m not paying fair value. There’s better WRs to chase than fair value ARob.
…but, if the Nick Foles takeover comes into view, I’m a bit more interested in ARob. The (2-0) start means Foles is still a few weeks away but mark my words…it’s coming.
-- Ryan Nall (1-2-0/1) was sighted!! I just wanted to type that while I could. This is still Montgomery as RB2 backed up by WR Patterson and then Tarik Cohen (5-12-0, 1-15-0/1), who has totally disappeared, after that. Nall is a million light years away from any chance…but he at least got in the game here.
-- I thought Mitch Trubisky (18-28 for 190 yards, 2 TDs/2 INTs, 4-16-0) played another shaky/borderline terrible game. You know I have liked Mitch, but I see no development in 2020 and he works in this terrible offense. He’s lucky he’s faced DET-NYG back-to-back is all I can say.
Another gift this week…Atlanta. The clock strikes midnight on Trubisky starting Week 4.
I’d rather have Daniel Jones (25-40 for 241 yards, 0 TD/1 INT, 3-21-0) for FF…that’s how down I am on Trubisky. Trubisky is not getting any better, he’s getting worse – he’s a totally scared, over-managed QB. The end is nigh. A wasted opportunity of a career by Matt Nagy.
-- Two IDP notes…
DB Logan Ryan (7 tackles) was a late signee of the Giants and in Week 1 he played 59% of the snaps but played 85% here and had a nice IDP effort. Remember, he was a top IDP DB last year. He’s now on a team that will be on defense a lot…and he’s an ex-Patriot on a team coached by an ex-Patriot. He’s going to be useful for IDP again.
DL Kyler Fackrell (4 tackles, 1 sack, 2 TFLs) had 10.5 sacks for Green Bay in the 2018 season, but just 1.0 in 2019 and was quietly signed by NYG in the offseason. He is not a nobody. He might be NYG’s best pass rusher.
-- OK, the special note…
I was asked by someone last night…”Is there a next Diontae Johnson?” The question stopped me in my tracks for a moment. Great question. I’ve been so focused on celebrating Diontae and trying to make sure everyone was valuing him properly, I hadn’t really thought…OK, great you hit Diontae…whaddya got for me now? Pull another rabbit out of your arse dancing fantasy boy!
‘Diontae’ means a certain type of WR. Slender. Good hands+. But mostly so fast-of-foot off the snap they can get open on anyone…BUT that has to be combined with the intestinal fortitude to work all parts of the field. Jerry Jeudy can get open on anyone off the snap, but then is a piece of garbage over the middle or near any traffic. Diontae is a chip-on-his-shoulder, overlooked grinder…Jeudy is an entitled diva.
Who fits the bill for next Diontae?
One contender I have in mind – Chicago Bears 5th-round 2020 rookie Darnell Mooney.
Let’s look at the quick overview/timeline…
A very good college WR, hidden away at Tulane…somewhat because of a bad passing game/QB situation. Mostly because he didn’t play in the SEC.
Ran a 4.38 40-time at the Combine, as everyone collectively yawned.
Drafted 5th-round and wasn’t fully assumed to make the team.
Impressed in camp (which means little on rookies…everyone impresses). But I couldn’t see him against NFL talent in the preseason to really ‘know’.
Played near as many snaps as Anthony Miller Week 1, in a mild shock to me. Out-snapped Miller Week 2, and scored a TD. The #2 WR on the Chicago Bears is Darnell Mooney…and most people aren’t aware and don’t really care.
You should care.
How much, is difficult to answer. What’s the #2 WR on the Bears worth…especially splitting with Miller to some degree?
Mooney has that ‘Diontae look’ to me, to some degree. Very fast. Sharp cuts. Great hands…is a really a very good WR (I know this from my CFM studies and subsequent scouting report). But Mooney is a rookie…on a weak offense with a revolving QB situation ahead. However, being the #2 WR, being a talent, seeing ARob get all the top coverage – it’s got my FF-interest piqued. But, where did Taylor Gabriel get us the past two years in a similar spot? BUT, Anthony Miller popped late last year because he was ‘there/available’.
I don’t think a Mooney breakout is imminent/next week but he should be on the radar the deeper your redraft rosters go – and deeper Dynasty rosters, now is the time to start seeing if you have a spot to put him in/acquire fairly cheap.
Diontae in Chicago wouldn’t be ‘Diontae’/AB 2.0…because there is no Big Ben, so be careful how excited you get by my hinting. I’m probably quite early to this party and I need to see more of his NFL work, but what I’ve seen so far…I’m really encouraged that he might hit for the future, but also be useful now in some respects actually playing for the Bears already.
If you ask me about picking Mooney up on Video Q&A or whatever…you gotta tell me ‘in place of who?’.
Snap Counts of Interest:
53 = ARob
39 =Mooney
29 = Wims
26 = Anth Miller
35 = D Montg
21 = Cohen
14 = CPatt
65 = Peppers
65 = Bradberry
64 = J Love
55 = Logan Ryan
29 = Ballentine
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 2 Game Analysis: Steelers 26, Broncos 21
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
The Steelers led 17-3 at halftime. They had sent Drew Lock out of the game. Courtland Sutton would be lost for the year eventually. Everything that could go wrong for Denver was going wrong…and, yet, with 7+ minutes remaining…the Broncos had a couple of shots/drives to win the game at the end.
I’m not sure if it was the Steelers got lax or if the Broncos are just so scrappy (and enjoy losing closing games, as they do)…but it ended up closer than it felt watching it. Denver is scrappy. The Steelers are still a bit sloppy but might have the best defense in football…so they’ll only fade so far in a game.
Pittsburgh gets more of a test this week with Houston…as they inch closer to a Week 7 showdown at Baltimore. I don’t know how good the Steelers…I should say I don’t know how great they are. I know they are good, but are they legit Super Bowl contenders? I think they are, but we’ll get another clue this week v. a tougher/desperate Houston.
Denver has lost a couple of it’s best players, heart & soul types…and they cannot recover from it. Courtland Sutton and Von Miller out for the season, and Phillip Lindsay and A.J. Bouye missing…it’s almost a ‘win’ in this close loss because it’s a miracle they were in it to the end (or the Steelers aren’t as good as we think). Denver hosts Tampa Bay this week and that might be closer than the Bucs/the public expects too.
Denver has lost too many top players and has too tough a schedule from Week 5 on to make any noise for 2020. They should start selling pieces now. Drew Lock getting hurt was the best thing that ever happened to this team, but they don’t see it that way.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- First things first…I don’t think you fully appreciate what is happening with Diontae Johnson (8-92-1/13). Sure, you’re happy he had a big game. You’re hopeful. You like him. You’re encouraged.
You are sitting on Antonio Brown in the making…and this AB 2.0 is ALSO with Big Ben. We have a QB that knows what this means/how to use it. If it were Derek Carr/Jon Gruden + Diontae, he’d be blocking for run plays every down and having 2-3 catches a game and no one would care.
You have a WR1 in PPR with Diontae, no more questions asked this year.
If Diontae ever stops ___-ing up the first few plays of each game, it would be nice. Week 1…muffed punt and then a drop and then a wrong route – and then gold the rest of the way. Week 2…fumbled a jet sweep first play, a drop soon after, and then gold.
The Steelers WR group after two games…
14 rec., 23 targets, 149 yards, 1 TD = Diontae
13 rec., 14 targets, 117 yards, 2 TDs = JuJu
05 rec., 05 targets, 127 yards, 1 TD = Claypool (now a viable FF player suddenly)
02 rec., 03 targets, 34 yards 1 TD = Washington
The thing is…98% of the FF population would feel better if they had Chris Godwin or D.J. Moore instead. If you don’t have Diontae, you can still get him…but it will cost you. It might be a sacrifice you want to make.
I suspect many of you don’t fully appreciate the treasure you possess in Diontae…that you fully feel the full value…like someone else who struggles with valuations: https://youtu.be/xyyqoHCkw9I
-- Speaking of WR greatness…Chase Claypool (3-88-1/3) is coming on so fast it’s amazing. I projected him as future-great/top of the WR draft class type talent, but I didn’t think it could happen with this WR group in place this quickly. I’m so happy Claypool is getting a chance to shine.
He might be a week or two away from being a legit starter, especially in non-PPR leagues. Claypool and Diontae are two of the best WR talents I’ve scouted in the past 5 years…both on the same team, and Claypool isn’t starting yet, but it won’t be long now.
This is why I’ve been anti-JuJu Smith-Schuster (7-48-0/8)…he’s got too much talent enveloping him for touches.
-- Chase Claypool doesn’t go 1st-round of the NFL Draft, isn’t a starter, makes 3rd-round chump money for the next four years…and yet Jerry Jeudy (4-62-0/7), who sucks by the way, is a multi-millionaire 1st-round pick. And yet we trust the NFL analysts inherently…
In case you’re wondering, Jeudy has 4 drops this season…all on passes over the middle. I think the NFL has only tagged him with two and none in this game…but he flat out dropped two easy passes here – because he heard footsteps. That’s why he sucks. He’s S-A-W-F-T. He is quite bouncy though, and that’s cool to look at when they talk about his bounciness for 10 minutes and never address the massive drops problem he has.
Rabbitt (expert Denver analyst/fan), am I wrong here?
-- Also, one of the best WRs I have ever scouted is Courtland Sutton (3-66-0/6)…who went in the 2nd-round of his draft because NFL analysts are above reproach by guys like me…he came back from his shoulder injury like a beast in this game…and then was taken away from us with an ACL.
Saquon and CMC take the headlines, but FFM-land got crushed this week too, in retrospect…we lost Parris Campbell and Courtland Sutton. That really stings. This year is crazy…and we’re two weeks in. Never been a season start like this for me…radical FF scoring from single players against teams killing teams, plus all these injuries. That’s why you can’t panic off two tough games to start the season…there’s a lot of spasms, high-highs and low-lows and injuries throwing everything off it’s normal flow.
We’re just two weeks in.
We just have to stay in the game, make smart not panic moves, and let the luck/fortune turn our way.
-- Noah Fant (4-57-1/5) is the big winner of Courtland going out (and Jeudy sucking). He’ll be the de facto #1/go-to for Denver now. How great that is with Drew Lock remains to be seen. It won’t be bad with Jeff Driskel. It’s not got the upside we’d hope…now teams are going to start defending it.
-- Speaking of Jeff Driskel (18-34 for 256 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT), he’s better than Drew Lock…that’s not a huge compliment, it’s just a fact. Not much changes with him in and Lock out…except Driskel is better for all.
-- We got to see the debut of K.J. Hamler (3-48-0/7) in this game. There’s literally 50 WRs just like him that are backups. I don’t get the huge appeal of Hamler. He is starting and will see targets, so there’s that. He isn’t terrible…just very tiny and OJ/good not good/great…on a bad passing game.
Damiere Byrd or Keelan Cole or Darnell Mooney are more exciting/better FF WRs.
-- Was anyone surprised James Conner (16-106-1, 2-12-0/2) would not get a full push back into the bell cow role? He will have it until his next injury…+/- 2-3 weeks.
-- The Denver-DST isn’t bad. They really gave a good/efficient Tennessee offense all they could handle Week 1. They held the Steelers to 2-for-12 on 3rd-downs. They got two turnovers. They pushed a very good Steelers offense/Big Ben. They fought hard against two playoff teams.
Three of the next 4 weeks they are viable, for FF. Week 3 hosting Tampa Bay might not be bad, but it’s not preferred. If Bouye is back, it’s not terrible.
You pick them up Week 3 to have them Week 4 v. NYJ.
Week 5 at NE is shaky but doable. Week 6 against Miami at home works well.
Not a hot DST, but one decent among the rubble of the unclaimed. And one to look ahead to Week 4.
-- The Steelers are in the argument for best defense in the NFL now, but before we get too excited – they have faced Daniel Jones and Jeff Driskel, so far. We don’t know how good/great they are. Facing HOU and at TEN the next two weeks aren’t gimmies, but worthy FF plays…just not top FF plays those weeks. Week 7-8-9 is at BAL, BYE, at DAL…that’s a stretch where you need a 2nd DST. You don’t wanna get rid of the Steelers totally then but they’re fine leading up to that stretch and then we’ll see.
In this game, the Steelers had 7 sacks, 13 TFLs, and 19 QB Hits.
By comparison, Denver had 1 sack, 6 TFLs, and 3 QB Hits.
Snap Counts of Interest:
59 = JuJu
54 = Diontae
31 = Washington
24 = Claypool
50 = Conner
10 = Snell
61 = M Gordon
16 = Royce Freeman
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 2 Game Analysis: Bucs 31, Panthers 17
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
This felt like a blowout watching the tape…it was 21-0 Bucs at the half. The Bucs seemed to do whatever they wanted, and the Panthers looked jumpy/skittish and on their way to certain defeat. Somehow, with 2:00 minutes left, the Panthers kicked a field goal to make it 24-17 Bucs, a one score game. The Bucs scored on the first play of that next drive and it was ‘over’.
The Panthers have not looked great, but somehow -- they are in games with good teams to the end (took Las Vegas to the wire, and almost caught the Bucs here). They will be a tough out. Their defense is not ready to help them win games just yet. A little more seasoning may show them to be a better unit 2nd-half of the season.
I think the Panthers would really shine facing a defense with a low-pressure front/bad pass rush. Teddy needs time, but unfortunately they have nothing but aggressive defenses (now that ATL is a higher pressure front) until Week 10, and only Week 11 will they get a break (v. DET). Without CMC, it’s even worse pressure coming. The Panthers are in for a rude awakening ahead via schedule, if I’m right…because defensive pressure is their kryptonite. If you can bet a win total ‘under’ for the ROS, it might be a winner.
The Bucs are the ultimate high-pressure front and forced Teddy Bridgewater into two picks and no TD passes. They also registered 5 sacks. The Bucs have an emerging, top NFL/FF defense. Their offense is pretty good too. This is a legit playoff team, except I’m not sure Tom Brady has enough juice left to go all the way…but he may just need more time to adjust to his surroundings.
Tampa will be in some ‘slog’ games at DEN, v. LAC, at CHI then next three weeks. We might see the power run game of Tampa emerge as the lead punch…not Brady flinging it all around.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- OK, Christian McCaffrey (18-59-2, 4-29-0/5) is projected to be out for 3-6 weeks. That’s long enough that the replacement RB matters for a bit for FF but short enough time to deal with where Carolina is not going to do anything radical at RB, like go out and make a trade or sign the ghost of Devonta Freeman, etc.
Mike Davis (1-1-0, 8-74-0/8) played more in this game than any Carolina RB I think I’ve seen in 2-3 years…he was coming on some 3rd-downs early in the game. He was in the third play of the game – they trust Mike Davis. It’s Davis that you want for this backfield for FF for the short term.
Trenton Cannon is listed 3rd-string, but he’s more of a 3rd-down/2-minute drill screen pass option…not a real RB, per se.
The wild card is Reggie Bonnafon, who is on the practice squad. He was the guy backing up CMC in 2019, and he made some splash plays in the preseason and regular season the past two years. I was surprised the Panthers cut him and put him on the practice squad. He may not be the new regime’s cup of tea…which is why I lean heavy Mike Davis coming up -- but note that the offense changes with Davis vs. McCaffrey. I doubt we see Davis getting a thousand targets a game…except he got 8 targets in this game working the late comeback efforts.
Link: https://youtu.be/rj96vXx3wxg
Davis has RB1 potential short-term, if given a chance…but always seems to get hurt whenever he does get that chance (thus, keep an eye on Bonnafon).
If the Panthers sign an RB, just a generic…it might be over for Bonnafon here.
I would suspect a highly paid CMC on a bad football team not contending…I would think he’s not rushing back to action. I’d project him out longer rather than shorter.
-- Just as interesting, maybe more…we look at the soap opera that is the Tampa Bay backfield.
Leonard Fournette (12-103-2, 4-13-0/5) possibly laid claim to getting into more of a starter’s role here. We’ll see. I want to show you what happened in this game for the rotation, and you can decide what you think…
Ronald Jones (7-23-1, 2-4-0/2) started, as he does, and looked fine…scored on a sweet 7-yard TD run. Everything was normal…Jones started.
Fournette was seen entering the game in the 2nd-quarter.
Jones went to take a tricky hand-off from Brady on a delayed draw, there was a bad fumble on the exchange, a turnover. Brady was seen yelling on the sidelines about it (in my estimation, it was 97% Brady’s fault…but no one will ever say that to the prince of Tom-pa Bay).
If you didn’t watch the game, or even if you did among several games at one time (like me)…it seemed like that fumble was the catalyst for the rise of Fournette. But watching the tape…it wasn’t.
The very next series, after the RoJo (really Brady) fumble…Jones was in, and took the first play/carry. Everything was fine. In fact, Jones was out there first in most of the series after the fumble. No doghouse. No punishment.
Fournette kept working in and out and caught fire and they just literally ‘ran with it’. Fournette was running like the beast he is – a hammer up the middle, and rewatching this he wasn’t so bad on the outside. It’s just he’s so much more effective between the guards.
From the tape…it felt like RoJo was the guy…the purposed starter, but then I look and see Fournette played 26 snaps, RoJo 21 snaps, and McCoy 11.
Fournette looked much better this week than last…but Jones is not a chump in this equation. It’s entirely possible Tampa is about to turn into a power run team…the best power tandem run team in the NFL…and both guys end up producing.
You want both to make sure you have ‘the one’…it’s too late to get Fournette now, but Jones is probably on sale. The way RBs are dying, you want tandems when they are this talented…for your protection.
Last week, I thought Ronald Jones was going to hold that job for several more weeks. Now, Fournette made a move and I get a vibe that Fournette is inevitable but it’s always going to be a split role, a 1-2 punch unless one of them seriously messes up/gets hurt – and Jones is more likely to be the one set back in a few weeks. I don’t think Brady would ever be screaming at the sidelines near Fournette or he might get punched in the face.
‘Face’ is a good term of where this backfield is going – I feel like Fournette is the ‘face’ of what the TB team wants to be, so eventually…Fournette will be the lead ‘face’….a 60/40 lead. Until then, Fournette is just another talented guy getting 8-12 carries a game with 1-4 targets…which I just described several ‘starting’ NFL RB’s touch counts. Fournette as a backup will get low-end starter-level touches.
-- You want the TB RBs because this offense is going to be good. Why? Not because of Tom Brady (23-35 for 217 yards, 1 TD/1 INT), per se. Brady is now a very good game manager, but this power run game takes pressure off the passing game and the O-Line looks really good protecting Brady (Carolina had ZERO sacks and just ONE QB hit all game) and in run blocking.
Note for Brady: This was a no pressure defense on Brady, with a so-so/weaker secondary – and Brady threw for just 217 yards and 1 TD. The power run tandem might be the future of this offense, if Brady allows it…but then that opens up Brady too.
-- It’s turning into a Bruce Arians offense more than a Brady one…meaning the TEs are useless for fantasy. O.J. Howard (1-11-0/3) looks stiff and Gronk (1-11-0/3) looks shot. Cameron Brate may be their best TE…but it won’t matter for FF.
-- You thought Brady was going to turn Scotty Miller (2-11-0/3) into Julian Edelman here, but you got burned. I bought it too. Note…Miller had a 21-yard TD pass go right through his hands or this would have been a touch different outcome.
-- Teddy Bridgewater (33-43 for 367 yards, 0 TDs/2 INTs) looks very jumpy under any pressure. High pressure defenses are going to expose him from what I’m seeing. Teddy has very good passer instincts and good ball placement, when he’s comfortable…but when he has any pressure he gets nervous and throws offline and into danger in 2020.
It’s a weird scouting event to judge…he can look so solid one play and then terrible the next…missing wide-open throws or throwing passes behind receivers instead of in-front of them. Maybe, Teddy gets more comfortable as he goes…but I don’t love what I see. He’ll be good for garbage time when the pressure is less, and the defense is ‘preventing’.
Teddy’s on-target throw percentage (% of attempts deemed on-target) is 32.9% right now (through 2 games). It was 81.3% behind the great O-Line of the Saints in 2019. By comparison, Brady is at 76.5% in 2020, was 73.1% in 2019.
-- OK, OK enough with the Curtis Samuel (2-13-0/2, 4-26-0) talk from me. It’s likely never going to happen…he’s never going to be used to seriously run the ball.
Sure, he got 4 carries here…but all jet sweeps/reverses. It’s a good sign that he got four carries but I was hoping he’d line up in the backfield some and really be a unique wrinkle…he’s not. Without CMC, we’ll see if he moves into the backfield some…but I doubt it. And in an all-pass comeback effort late, where a lot of the junk stats for everyone for CAR came from, Samuel saw 2 targets all game. That’s enough for me…no more hoping here.
-- The Panthers signed Rasul Douglas (7 tackles) when the Eagles cut him before the season started, and now he’s a starter. Douglas has knack for FF stats, so watch him for IDP.
-- I’m seeing some signs of ‘it’ with the Bucs defense again this week. They were pitching a shutout for the first half, then kinda played soft and let Carolina mosey on back into the game.
Still, the TB-DST held Carolina to 17 points…while getting 5 sacks and forcing 4 turnovers. This is going to be a very aggressive defense that might give up some points/yards but has a high probability for turnovers and D TDs.
Snap Counts of Interest:
54 = Watson
53 = Evans
42 = Miller
42 = Gronk
34 = Howard
04 = Brate
26 = Fournette
21 = Jones
11 = McCoy
65 = DJ Moore
54 = Robby A
51 = Samuel
47 = McCaffrey
24 = M Davis
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 2 Game Analysis: Browns 35, Bengals 30
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
This was a game of Cleveland constantly going up two scores, the Bengals then responding cutting it to a one score game, then the Browns back up two scores, the Bengals answering to cut it one, and the Browns would answer to go up by two scores…until finally the clock expired and the Browns won (and Bengals covered me +6.0, thank you Lord).
18 legit drives in the game between the two teams, and 11 of them resulted in some kind of score. Another drive was halted on a 4th & 2 to-go goal line shot. You can complement the offenses…or mock the defenses.
…I think it was the defenses.
The Browns climb to (1-1) but I wouldn’t trust them as far as you could throw them. They should beat Washington in Week 3, but that’s not assured...and a Week 3 win would set off a Browns revival/tizzy and then they’ll get stomped out from there. It’s a 5-6-7 win team depending upon their secondary getting back healthy.
The Bengals have stayed close for two games in a row now, and it’s all because of Burrow…because other than that this team does not look good. The fact that the Bengals looked good/strong against LAC opening day would make me scared to death for the Chargers season ahead (unless they permanently switch to Justin Herbert). Cincy will be lucky to win 3-4 games this year. There are too many head winds and rebuilding/retooling/dumping of the roster as we go this season for Burrow to try and flirt with any type of shock .500/8-win season.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- My biggest takeaway from this game… Folks, A.J. Green (3-29-0/13) is ‘shot’; he’s done. He’s no longer a legit #1 NFL WR. I don’t even know how good of an NFL starting WR he is anymore.
Now, perhaps he’s secretly injured…so, give that allowance – but what I am seeing on tape is frightening. He’s gotten so slow/stiff. His routes are so not-sharp. Denzel Ward (3 tackles, 3 PDs) ate him alive. It was child’s play. AJG ‘earned’ that terrible stat line.
I went back and watched his Week 1 targets just to see why I didn’t notice it last week, and I saw the same slow/troublesome WR in Week 1. Now that I saw/caught it on Week 2 TNF…I could see it in Week 1 as well.
In two games in 2020, Green has been targeted 22 times…caught 8 of them (37%) – that’s atrocious considering he’s playing with a very good Joe Burrow in an offense that is passing a lot against softer coverage. AJG has faced tough corners out of the gates, but it’s not that…it's that he is visibly ‘shot’ is the only word I can use to describe it (or he’s secretly hurt).
If AJG is ‘done’, functionally ‘done’…the ‘winner’ is going to be Tyler Boyd (7-72-1/8). Like he was here. You want in on Boyd for PPR with Joe B., but the price jumped after his TNF game…but it’s probably not going to go near high enough as it should and the TNF effort will be lost through all the Sunday and Monday events. People don’t really believe in or hold Boyd in high regard – he’s going to be an excellent ‘buy low’ this week…even if the price is higher than it was last week.
Boyd should be priced/acquired as a WR2-2.5…because if we were redrafting again today, he would go in about the same area of the draft…around the 30th WR off the board. People still think A.J. Green is the #1 here, and that holds Boyd’s value down still.
-- Speaking of ‘shot’ WRs…Odell Beckham (4-74-1/6) had a moment on national TV…which creates a great chance to ‘sell it’. He does get Washington in Week 3, so he might have one more TD in him before the fade to WR3-ville for the season.
Even with this great/juicy matchup, OBJ got all of 6 targets and 4 catches. To be fair, he had another 40+ yard TD stolen by a P.I. where he got held on a sure bomb TD pass, that he couldn’t get to because his jersey was grabbed as the pass was coming in for a landing. OBJ has become DeSean Jackson…seeks the safety of bombs to stay away from any interior contact. Has a moment every so often…but the ‘legend’ is greater than the reality.
-- It’s sad to say that Joe Burrow (37-61 for 316 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT) is already better than Baker Mayfield (16-23 for 219 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT)…it’s the cool thing to say now in order to put down Baker, but it’s reality – but also Burrow is perhaps the single greatest QB prospect to come out of college football ever.
Also, Baker is stuck in an ill-fitting offense with terrible/not-trying WRs. Baker setting the rookie passing TD record in 2018, despite not starting the season, despite working with Hue Jackson, despite a coaching change midseason, despite how bad the Browns were then…it’s all been forgotten and Baker is being written off. You saw some flashbacks to good-Baker in this game, but it was also against a bad Bengals defense.
Baker only threw for 219 yards here. This is now considered a ‘good’ game for Baker now…219 yards and 2 TDs…and that was against a bad defense. Get used to these weak stat lines from Baker because the Browns are going to copycat Mike Zimmer’s heavy run game/style under Kevin Stefanski, and with good reason – Chubb/Hunt is all they got. They can win as an RB heavy and hopeful/mildly talented defense unit. This current Cleveland team trying to pass their way to victory is a waste because of OBJ/Landry (and no ‘real’ third option). They will stick with the run/RBs centric offense.
Baker, for FF, in Cleveland, is functionally FF-dead…a worse Kirk Cousins (for FF). Only a change of teams could save him, and even then…it would be a whole new offense/receivers, etc. I thought the Browns would unleash Baker in 2019 to throw at will…that plan got dashed in one season, and now he’s an FF-chump in 2020. Not his fault, but it’s a reality we have to deal with on him.
-- Joe Burrow looked fine once again…he’s a QB1 in 4 or 6pts ROS. I hoped he would be a QB1 in the preseason. I thought it more possible after watching Week 1 tape. It’s official now. End of story. QB1…back-end.
-- Another Joe Mixon (16-46-0, 4-40-0/4) FF dud…it means he due for a pop ahead. He’s getting good touches and got the best targeting here in a while it seems. I’m not in hot pursuit, but he is becoming a buy low – a legit top RB (for touches, etc.) people are starting bail on.
Gio Bernard (1-3-0, 5-22-0/7) gets too many 3rd-down/2-minute offense snaps, but Mixon is still fine regardless. Mixon is ‘the man’ here.
-- More than a few of you took the Nick Chubb (22-124-2, 1-9-0/1) and Kareem Hunt (10-86-1, 2-16-1/2) combo on purpose for 2020…hoping that Hunt would stand on his own for PPR, and/or get traded, and/or was a smart handcuff.
It looks like the Chubb-Hunt dual-threat plan in Cleveland is what is going to happen, because the Browns have little else going for them. They’re both going to co-exist.
Just note, this great moment was against the Bengals…let’s not think they’re dual RB1s. More likely they are dual RB1.5-2.0s. The Bengals defense is soft, their linebackers are shaky, and they were missing two DTs for this game.
-- I wondered if Austin Hooper (2-22-0/4) might start to see a few more targets as the WRs let Baker down again. The answer to that here was ‘NO’. He’s still just a bit player at this point. I haven't written him off yet, but I am not really interested in him either.
-- Cincy IDP notes…
CB Will Jackson (5 tackles, 1 PD) got burned by OBJ for a long TD, and then almost again soon after. Jackson looks stiff and not the elite cover guy he was coming out of the University of Houston.
Germaine Pratt (2 tackles) followed up a sweet debut Week 1 with a dud 2 tackle effort here. For as much as teams will run at Cincy, Pratt has to do better than this for IDP.
-- Browns’ IDP notes…
DB Tavierre Thomas (9 tackles) has had a nice start to 2020, but not he may dry up and disappear once the injured Browns’ starters return soon.
LB B.J. Goodson (7 tackles, 1 PD) is averaging 8.0 total tackles per game this year, but note…as soon as Mack Wilson can return, then Goodson probably dries up and disappears too.
Snap Counts of Interest:
36 = Chubb
20 = Hunt
78 = Boyd
60 = Higgins
57 = AJG
32 = Mk Thomas
28 = Ross
46 = Mixon
42 = Gio
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 1 Game Analysis: Seahawks 38, Falcons 25
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
The easy narrative here is…
Russell Wilson ‘got to cook’ (I hate that phrase already) and Atlanta is a perpetual letdown, and thus they had another letdown in a beating to Seattle. For an added bonus, Atlanta put up a bunch of garbage time late to push nice FF numbers.
…and the world continues to spin as it is supposed to.
I know, that’s what I thought walking out of Sunday’s action live – this was all normal, nothing new here. When I put the game recaps in order of priority/fantasy impact to discuss…this one made it to ‘last’ on my list because it went the way most expected and nothing shocked anyone looking at the box score.
However, after relooking at things, I think there was a piece of data that might sail right below the surface from this game. One that should give Atlanta hope, or cause Seattle fear…or both.
If you look at total QB Hits + TFLs in any NFL game…you can usually tell who won the game/how big of a beating it was. These two stats are obvious for why I mention them…you’d know which defense is controlling/dominating the offense/blocking.
I pulled all the Week 1 games for these numbers for a reason (that I’ll explain in a minute). But let’s jump right in and look at the Week 1 games by combined TFLs + QB Hits:
CHI 9 (won), DET 8.5
LAR 10 (won), DAL 4
DEN 10, TEN 9 (won)
GB 8 (won), MIN 4
LV 5 (won), CAR 4
You see a pattern? You see the levels/counts? OK, let’s proceed…
ARI (won) 10, SF 5…does this catch you by surprise, but then really doesn’t because Arizona won?
PIT 19 (won), NYG 9.5…big number for PIT, by prior comparison, right?
LAC 12.5 (won), CIN 6
KC 11 (won), HOU 8
NE 12 (won), MIA 9
How about the pattern you notice with these five games? More double-digit+ tallies with this group…and all game winners. In case you’re keeping track the QB Hits + TFL winners are (9-1) by what I’ve shown so far. But…
It’s not a guarantee of a stat though. Look at these tallies…
TB 14, NO 12 (won)…this is why you don’t write off TB and why you should get excited about their defense – they did that to a very good offense/O-Line.
NYJ 14.5, BUF 13.5 (won)…like I was saying about the scrappy/aggressive Jets defense.
CLE 12.5, BAL 10 (won) even I was shocked at this, but sometimes a huge blowout the winning team pulls up on the reins.
IND 10, JAX 7 (won)…who didn’t say about this game “The Colts were better than Jags here, but…”
See the pattern among the losing teams here…bigger tallies (on both sides of the game for the most part), but all losses for the QB Hit + TFL winners. Driving this ‘stat’s’ predictiveness to a (9-5) real win-loss record so far into our journey.
I’m missing two games. One is the SEA-ATL game. Let me share the other one that I saved for the shock value. Look at the numbers above…a total count of 8-13 is the prevailing tally for a team (win or lose). 14-15-16 tend to be the ‘big boy’ defenses. The Steelers with 19 total is the Week 1 leader so far.
OK, are you ready for this next one…
WAS 28 (won), PHI 16…now do you think I was being too over the top about the Washington defensive front? I’ve rarely seen a number over 20-22 in any game in a season. Either the Eagles are in big trouble (for obvious O-Line issues/reasons) and/or ‘The Football Team’ has ‘something’ special on defensive pressure.
Now, remember…it’s Week 1. We don’t know if the defense drove it…the offensive deficiencies drove it…the game plan drove it – and that with adjustments and injuries it will be all different next week. So, don’t jump off a cliff here…yet. What happened Week 1 is not necessarily the fact from here on in.
Five teams, of the 30 teams I’ve shown so far, hit 14 or more combined QB Hits + TFLs…and only two won, but two of them played each other as well. The 14+ club from Week 1: PIT-WAS-PHI-NYJ-TB…aggressive defenses and/or big-time fronts, and/or faced a team with a bad O-Line.
The last game to show…
15 ATL, SEA 14.5 (won).
Atlanta, of all teams, registered the 3rd-best number in the league Week 1. Is it the Seattle O-Line? The Falcons have a pass rush? Both? None…just luck? What happened?
Atlanta’s 2019:
MIN 14, ATL 7 (loss)
ATL 16 (won), PHI 10
…we’re about to lose six in-a-row
ATL 11.5 (loss), IND 8 (a close loss)
TEN 21.5, ATL 14 (loss)
HOU 13, ATL 4 (loss…crushed, gave up 53)
ARI 12, ATL 2 (loss)
LAR 19, ATL 12.5 (loss)
SEA 14, ATL 7 (loss)
…we’re about to turn the season around post-BYE
ATL 17 (win), NO 9…remember when they shockingly crushed the Saints here?
ATL 17.5 (win), CAR 14
TB 21, ATL 6 (loss)…I sensed the trend and bet ATL heavy to lose my life here.
NO 22, ATL 3 (loss)
ATL 15 (win), CAR 8
SF 12, ATL 8 (win)
JAX 11, ATL 9 (win)
TB 20, ATL 6 (win)
Atlanta registered 15 QB Hits + TFLs vs. Seattle in Week of 2020…when they hit 15 or more last year they were (3-0). Atlanta is usually in the 7-10 range. They are usually a low sack count/low pressure defense. In 2020, Week 1, they sacked Russell Wilson 3 times before halftime…they outgained Seattle in yards by a healthy amount in the 1st-half. It was only 14-12 Seattle at the half, and Atlanta was the better/equal team in the 1st-half.
In the 3rd-quarter, on a 4th & 2 at midfield, Atlanta ran a fake punt, got the 1st-down but fumbled…and turned it over – and that changed the game. The Falcons ended up down by 19 points in the 4th-quarter. They scored to make it a two-score game 31-18 with 9+ minutes left. Still a ballgame, but Seattle drove right down and scored to put it away.
This wasn’t the blowout that was (easily) portrayed. I’m not suggesting that Atlanta is great or a hot DST, but I am suggesting being ready to look for more clues Week 2 on…
1) Atlanta might have a pass rush/defensive front now. Dante Fowler (4 tackles, 0.5 sacks, 1.5 TFLs) was added in the offseason.
Takk McKinley, a former 1st-round pick who has battled off-field mental issues…he registered 6 QB Hits in this game. The most by any player Week 1. He played like his hair was on fire. In his first three seasons in the NFL he registered: 10-15-13 QB Hits…for a season. He had 6 in this game.
Grady Jarrett (5 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 3 QB Hits) is one of the best DTs in the NFL.
Atlanta can’t cover anyone (lost Desmond Trufant in the offseason, Kendall Sheffield hurt Week 1, and now starting a shaky rookie on one CB side already), so there’s that issue – but they showed signs that they can now get to the QB.
They face Dallas Week 2…and Dallas has lost a chunk of its O-Line. Be careful logging in Dallas as an auto-victory here. It might be another McKinley breakout event with Tyron Smith out.
2) OR…it could be that Seattle is awful on the O-Line.
Minus a Russell Wilson 28-yard scramble run…Seattle ran the ball 19 times for 56 yards…2.9 yards per carry. Wilson was sacked three times in the 1st-half…and hit 10 times total.
Notice where some of the Seattle offense came from…O-Line weakness plays…i.e. screen passes.
Be very afraid for Seattle v. Belichick this week.
Fantasy Player Notes…
*Other than that big defensive lead-in, all the FF players did what all these players tend to do. Let me just quickly comment on a few things that caught my eyes otherwise…
-- Todd Gurley (14-56-1, 2-1-0/5) looked fine. Not inspired, but not slow/terrible/knee problemed. He only played 46% of the snaps is an issue to fear, potentially. Brian Hill (3-012-0, 2-8-0/2) worked 27% of the snaps and Ito Smith (1-4-0, 3-2-0/3) 20%.
It’s more of a three-headed monster than you want if you are relying on Gurley.
-- Chris Carson (6-21-0, 6-45-2/6) caught two short pass TDs. His best moment was a 19-yard screen pass TD. Aside from that 19-yard screen pass TD…11 other touches for 47 yards total. Just 6 carries. Virtually a ghost in the 2nd-half.
Carson played 45% of the snaps…his pattern of play/snaps followed Gurley’s – he’s in a two/three headed monster backfield.
Carlos Hyde (7-23-1) looked WAY better running the ball, and he played 34% of the snaps.
Travis Homer (3-0-0, 2-4-0/2) played 21% of the snaps.
It may have been ‘game flow’ but be wary of Carson again, potentially.
-- Russell Gage (9-114-0/12) had to have the quietest 9 catches for 114 yards game in the history of football. He just doesn’t look like a star to me, not even ‘good’, just useful…and I’d bet he’s going to hurt taking a hit over the middle and missing games by midseason.
-- Hayden Hurst (3-38-0/5) looked really good, they just didn’t use him a lot. Bobby Wagner covered him well, and Jamal Adams was on him too…Hurst got some great coverage for some reason. Don’t give up on Hurst yet.
-- Will Dissly (2-8-0/2) was back for Week 1 after another season ending injury in 2019. He played 40% of the snaps and looked like he was blowing off the rust. He’ll be in a 50/50 snap share with Olsen before long, and Dissly maybe more snaps because he is such a great blocker. We’ll have to see if Dissly can hold up…or Olsen, for that matter.
Snap Counts of Interest:
68 = Ridley
65 = Julio
55 = Gage
11 = Zacchaeus
41 = Olsen
25 = Dissly
11 = Hollister
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 1 Game Analysis: Titans 16, Broncos 14
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
This should’ve been a bigger win for the Titans. Not that the Broncos didn’t play the game/plan it as well as they could – but Stephen Gostkowski was going all Adam Vinateri/2019 and shanking field goal attempts all over. Gostkowski was 1/4 in FG attempts, and 1/2 in XP attempts…a nightmare game. When he lined up for the game winner/loser late, my heart literally stopped for him. The human in me wanted him to make that kick for his own sanity and for football justice for the Titans…and he (shockingly) split the uprights.
I saw this story last year, and it cost the Colts a playoff trip (I think) – they stick by the veteran, HOF kicker ‘because’ and it destroys them. Gostkowski almost cost them a win here. He’s going to if they keep sticking with him.
Aside from that, it was a well-played, tough/physical game with the Broncos having a rash of injuries in September to their best players coming in undermanned, and lost A.J. Bouye in-game here as well. The Broncos did all they could, but their season is about over before it starts due to the injuries (and Drew Lock). The Titans did what they had to do and pulled out a slugfest win.
Denver is staring down an 0-3 start with at PIT, TB ahead.
The Titans get a fortunate win and play Jacksonville for sole possession of 1st-place in the AFC South Week 2. The Titans need that Week 2 win…at MIN-PIT-BUF-HOU Weeks 3-6 is not going to be an easy stretch.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Is Corey Davis (7-101-0/8) back…or arrived finally? Maybe, but probably not. The Broncos went heavy after Derrick Henry and focused on A.J. Brown (5-39-0/8), and really took AJB out of the game 1st-half, as happens to AJB when he faces tough coverage. All of it allowed Davis, who was barely being covered, to go off for 5 catches for 76 yards in the 1st-half.
The Broncos adjusted and Davis went 2 catches for 25 yards in the more pass heavy 2nd-half. When Bouye went down and urgency struck…Ryan Tannehill (29-43 for 249 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) went to Brown-Humphries-Jonnu in that order, and Davis drifted into the backdrop.
‘Drifting into the backdrop’ is Corey Davis’s entire career. He’s not the plan on purpose. He’s a random WR3 event on a team not dedicated to the passing game and one that sees him as the 3rd-4th-best option when it’s crunch time. Don’t be dazzled because he was a really high draft pick WR…so was Mike Williams and John Ross that same year. In the 3rd-round of that 2017 Draft, Cooper Kupp, Chris Godwin, and Kenny Golladay were taken.
You know one of my sure scouting signs of a shaky NFL WR prospect? If they were taken in the 1st-round of the NFL Draft…that’s a damning sign.
I’d be a ‘sell high’ on Davis off this event if you can get anyone to bite.
If Brown misses this week…worse news for Davis as he’ll draw C.J. Henderson, who will shut him down. Davis might have another plausible FF game if Brown plays.
-- Jonnu Smith (4-36-1/7) got a little better run than usual…but it’s still very odd. Jonnu made a nice play early and then just disappeared. Like, why doesn’t Tennessee want more Jonnu? It works great, a lot. When the Titans were scuffling back-and-forth late with Denver, Jonnu saw a little more action and had a decent game…but 36 yards in a game is silly. He should have more, be used more. He’s still more gimmicky than not.
Still, he’s good enough to be a TE1 as a lowly targeted gimmick.
-- Noah Fant (5-81-0/6) benefitted from Courtland Sutton being out, and the fact that Fant is really good. Drew Lock is going to be a problem for Fant finding FF consistency. Fant is stuck as a wobbly/fringe TE1…but he’s so talented, like Jonnu (but differently talented) that Fant can make it work with limited looks.
-- The Jerry Jeudy (4-56-0/8) experience debuted to a yawn here.
The TV analysts can keep replaying and gushing over his bouncy feet, and he does have quick feet…but he has little heart of body/frame for the NFL – so, what they don’t re-play over and over is Jeudy’s drops (he had two). When Jeudy is going over the middle for a pass…odds are he’ll gator arm it.
They also ran a bubble screen/short pass thing for him, and he gets tackled like he’s a 5th-grader facing college kids in sandlot football. A stiff breeze knocks Jeudy over because he’s like a stick figure body with a S-A-W-F-T play style.
He could improve with maturity and weight room time, but I think there will be regret over what a wasted 1st-round pick this was…even if he is ‘good’. He’s just ‘good’ at best. DeSean Hamilton (1-18-0/3) has similar bouncy feet…that story/ship sailed fast, didn’t it?
-- Melvin Gordon (15-78-1, 3-8-0/3), to my great angst, becomes an RB1 candidate with Phillip Lindsay (7-24-0, 1-11-0/1) out with turf toe.
Turf toe tends to linger and hamper/hinder. I don’t have a lot of time to wait on Lindsay in a split with Gordon. I wanted to believe, and Lindsay was showing a sign that he was pushed ahead of Gordon to begin this game…but he just lost all that goodwill.
The way Lindsay has been treated by Denver (after two 1,000+ yard seasons they pay up for Gordon), I’ll bet Lindsay does not rush back and takes several weeks until he’s 100%. There’s not career/income benefit to Lindsay returning until he’s 100%. If you see better options, and if Lindsay is ruled out this week, it’s OK to move on in non-deep roster leagues.
I’d sell Melvin Gordon hot too, perhaps. He faces four of the best run defenses in the NFL the next four weeks…PIT-TB-@NYJ-@NE. Sell Gordon high, sell Lindsay to the Gordon owner. Bail out of the Denver run game if you can. We might pile back in after Week 8 bye.
-- Denver IDP Josey Jewell (8 tackles) played better than I’d seen him the past few years. He might be getting his career back on track/starting to fulfill some promise.
-- Watch out for Jeremiah Attaochu (4 tackles, 1 sacks, 2 QB hits) having a 10+ sack season across from Bradley Chubb. Attaochu is a great pass rusher, and he really had two sacks here…he had Tannehill clutched and going to the ground and Tanny just flung it away before hitting the ground. No Von Miller…Attaochu is the beneficiary.
Snap Counts of Note:
50 = Patrick
47 = D Hamilton
44 = Jeudy
60 = Attaochu
59 = Chubb
66 = A.J. Brown
66 = C Davis
59 = Jonnu
44 = Humphries
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 1 Game Analysis: Packers 43, Vikings 34
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
The reports on this game are true. Not much more I can add. The Packers/Aaron Rodgers destroyed the Vikings and it was nowhere near as close as the final score made it appear. The Pack led 29-10 going into the 4th-quarter and then a garbage all-pass shootout erupted to the finish (good for FF numbers if you were in on it).
Matt LaFleur has Mike Zimmer’s number…now 3-0 against him and the gap between the two teams seems wider than ever. How bad was this by MIN? Well, the GB passing game has been regressing for a while now…it only has spasms against bad pass defenses/terrible teams. Well, what does that make the Vikings then…because they got destroyed here? Before we crown Aaron Rodgers as 'back', let's see him against a better defense...like Week 3 @NO. They schedule is very good for Rodgers through Week 11/pretty much all year though...
A lot of young/new corners playing for the Vikings; a needed flushing by Zimmer. It might take 4-6 weeks for the Vikings D to get rolling to ‘decent’, and they need to get Danielle Hunter back…but it might be too late by then.
The Vikings are in a 2020 do-or-die kinda game this week with Indy, at Indy. Lose that one and then three 2019 playoff teams are on the schedule next. The season may be over by the time Hunter returns and the CBs are improved, unfortunately for them. Minnesota has to win this week…but so does Indy.
The Packers have established themselves as the best team in a suddenly awful division. They may go 6-0 in division this year. It should be another Air Raid on Detroit this week.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- With a huge passing game effort this week, I hoped to see Allen Lazard (4-63-1/4) go off with a big game and big targets. But then I saw just four targets…and I got depressed.
And then I watched the tape and realized – Allen Lazard is a Pro Bowl caliber WR talent. He was terrific in this game. The only thing standing in the way of him and fantasy goodness is the target levels. Lazard is now taking WR-in-motion flick/pitch passes in front of the QB, like a running play but counts as a pass catch type thing. He also took a jet sweep here – which all these types of plays are a GREAT sign that they KNOW what they have here. Lazard ran 19-yards on his jet sweep and his pitch pass sweep was 10+ yards as well. A 6’5”/225+ WR coming around the edge with a full head of steam and looking like a great tailback…it was sweet to see.
We just need to see more of it. I think we will, but I always think that…and it never happens. I think you want in on Lazard as a #4-5 WR on your roster because we could wake up in 1-2-3 weeks and he’s a full-fledged star/strong WR2. I can feel it. This game was initially depressing at a box score level, but now I’m hopeful he’s about to ‘arrive’ after watching the tape.
Again, I say, if Davante Adams goes down…Lazard will be a WR1 in an instant.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (4-96-1/6) is cute, but he cannot hold a candle compared to Lazard. Have some patience with Lazard for another week or two and see if I’m right that he pops to a strong WR2…a better-than-Darrius Slayton, Darrius Slayton-type WR in 2020.
-- I’d be worried about Aaron Jones’s (16-66-1, 4-10-0/6) true upside in this offense ahead in 2020. Nothing on Jones but I see Green Bay is still into Jamaal Williams (7-21-0, 4-21-0/4) as a pass protector, rotational guy. Still, Jones rules the touches between them…and we got our first A.J. Dillon (2-14-0) glimpses and he’s already the best power back on the team, and he’ll emerge a little bit more each week.
Additionally, the Packers are in love with Tyler Ervin (3-38-0, 1-6-0/1) taking touches too.
Not that Jones is terrible, but that he’ll be crowded out on some touches enough where he doesn’t hit top 5 fantasy RB status as we go forward through the season…maybe he is ‘just’ top 10-15-20. If Jones ever goes down, the Packers will find they won’t miss him for two seconds. Also, note…all these lead RBs are getting paid ahead of free agency (Mixon, Cook, Kamara)…but the Packers haven’t done a thing with Jones (who is in a similar boat). They know…
-- A lot was made of rookie Josiah Deguara (1-12-0/2) starting at TE, but note a couple of things…
1) The Packers haven’t had a good FF tight end since like Jermichael Finley. Remember how great Jimmy Graham was going to be here? No, you don’t…because it never happened. Not even close.
2) Deguara is solid, but Robert Tonyan (0-0-0/0) played the most TE snaps…for whatever that’s worth.
3) It speaks to what a waste of space Jace Sternberger is.
-- Justin Jefferson (2-26-0/3) played more snaps than I realized…he out-snapped starter Bisi Johnson (3-56-0/4), and still not much FF numbers in the game.
Watching Jefferson for the first time on the pro level…
1) He’s not in sync with Cousins yet, and probably won’t be for several weeks if not until 2021.
2) He looks much smaller in the pro backdrop. Looks more average/forgettable, at a glance.
3) He had no business being a 1st-round pick…the power of Joe Burrow made him, as you’re seeing already from Burrow’s pro debuts who was the driver in that situation.
Jefferson is an overrated WR prospect. He’s good enough but way overrated. This WR class was scouted entirely wrong by all the analysts and scouts and team GMs.
-- You’d think Irv Smith (1-11-0/1) might pop this year with the void in receivers after Adam Thielen, but…nope…one catch. We should all be moving on to other lesser TEs for TE fantasy roster depth who actually are involved in the offense more consistently.
-- MIN LB Eric Wilson (3 tackles) only played 56% of the snaps as a starter this game, which is infuriating…but he might have been out because of the passing air raid happening. Let’s see if he plays more Week 2 before I give up having IDP hope in him.
-- Odd IDP item…
Packers UDFA rookie LB Krys Barnes (7 tackles, 2 TFLs) somehow started this week…a guy elevated off the practice squad due to the COVID exception to do such things, he was brought up right before the game.
I didn’t see him as a Week 1 starter coming, but then he only played 15 snaps in this game…but then with those 15 plays…he made 7 tackles and had 2 TFLs??? He’s either amazing or lucky. He actually looked really solid/good. Put him on a watch list in deeper roster IDP leagues.
Snap Counts of Interest:
50 = Thielen
36 = Jefferson
33 = Bisi
32 = Rudolph
31 = Irv Smith
70 = Adams
68 = Lazard
42 = Marquez Valdes-Scantling
42 = A Jones (54%)
40 = J Williams
14 = Ervin
05 = Dillon
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 1 Game Analysis: Rams 20, Cowboys 17
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
Well, this went about as I expected…the Rams might be a bit less talented than the Cowboys, overall, but I thought Sean McVay with weeks to plan would outfox empty suit head coach Mike McCarthy, and it was so.
The Rams neutralized the Dallas pass rush with a quick passing game and safe, stable, stoic middle rushing game…and they played good enough defense to stay with/ahead of Dallas and ultimately secure the victory. Either team could’ve won, but the Rams just played smarter/sounder and a bit more energetic.
Dallas’s schedule ahead should be easy enough to get them on track, but if they get caught napping against ATL Week 2…all hell will break loose in Dallas, already. Week 3 is at Seattle. It’s a kinda must-win game for Dallas Week 2.
The Rams are just a very fundamentally sound team. Not great. Not bad. Going to try to stay close and be smarter than their opponents to the finish line. This is not a great Rams team, but their defense is much better than expected and they have enough offense to play with most any team. The schedule ahead is also the Rams’ friend…they could be 5-3/6-2 entering their Week 9 bye.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- I watched all the Cam Akers (14-39-0, 1-4-0/1) carries closely…I still don’t see ‘it’. No magical unicorn rookie ways here. Just a guy running straight between the tackles…not all that quickly, not enough mass to move a pile, not agile enough to kick it to the outside. He’s another David Montgomery-esque story to me…
I’m willing to give him more time, it’s still early…but I never see ‘it’ with him.
Malcolm Brown (18079-2, 3-31-0/4) was clearly the best/preferred back here, and he should be for most of the season. I cannot see where Akers just outshines him and takes it away. They’ll always split in some way.
Darrell Henderson (3-6-0) has a hope to be in the split, but he needs to go make a play first (in his limited opps). Sending Akers and Henderson straight up the middle was probably the specific game plan here, but it doesn’t help show them off/show their skills. Sean McVay seems so averse to Henderson it’s hard to hold on to him for FF…but he’s the talent of this group, so there’s that reason to hope against hope.
-- What happened to Tyler Higbee (3-40-0/4)?
Just wasn’t a big part of the game plan as a receiver. The Rams went quick passing and heavy running…Higbee blocked a lot. Higbee played more snaps than any offensive skill player besides Jared Goff. Don’t fret.
Higbee also had a great schemed play where he had at least a 20-yard catch or possibly turned into a 40+ yard catch and run, but a well timed linebacker blitz forced Goff to throw early and off target and it hit a streaking Higbee down at the ankles for an incompletion. Had it been in stride, you would have had a solid 4-60-0 or 4-80-0 type line here. He’s fine.
-- I focused on rookie CeeDee Lamb (5-59-0/6) in his debut. He looked fine. Again, nothing special. I’m not saying he’s ‘bad’…I just think he’s more ‘OK/good’ then ‘great/generational”, like he’s pushed at us by football people. He’s a better version of Jerry Jeudy and over time maybe develops into a DeAndre Hopkins type receiver…maybe. He didn’t look like a big difference maker in this debut, but he was fine.
Lamb was working his rookie debut and generating all this chatter, as lesser-lauded rookie WR Van Jefferson (1-31-0/3) looked just as good/better on the other side but you’re not allowed to think/speak of such things. Van is going to be starting soon, but the third wheel in this ever-declining Rams’ passing game isn’t that exciting for FF. Someday he’ll replace Robert Woods as that go-to strong WR2 for PPR fantasy.
-- Dallas lost Blake Jarwin (1-12-0/1) for the season with injury this game, and Dalton Schultz (1-10-0/4) is not a replacement for FF. The loss of Jarwin helps CeeDee Lamb see more work, actually. Schultz will go most games with 1-2 targets.
-- I initially thought Aldon Smith (11 tackles, 1.0 sacks) was looking spry and ready to go get 10+ sacks this season in his comeback to the NFL…but on the rewatch, I saw a slower DE who looked his age. Still viable but not dominant. I’m taking his IDP projections down some after I spiked them too enthusiastically Monday.
-- Micah Kiser (7 tackles, 2 PDs) is the new middle linebacker for LAR, and he really played a good game…a classic run stopper who showed some coverage skills.
-- The Rams-DST looked really nice overall. More talented than expected with Kiser stepping up and Troy Hill being a better cover corner than given credit. The surprise to me was some of the Rams’ new defensive starters.
Taylor Rapp is now a bench/bit player now in this new scheme/regime at D-C…after a great IDP run late last year. 6th-round rookie Jordan Fuller (8 tackles) started at safety and 3rd-year UDFA corner (poached from the Ravens’ practice squad) Darious Williams (4 tackles) played most of the game snaps as well, outta nowhere.
A lot of new starters in a Week 1 game, and the Rams defense pretty well help the Dallas offense under wraps.
The Rams-DST has a great schedule ahead too…
Week 2 = at PHI with their a corrupted O-Line
Week 3 = at Josh Allen, not a big fear.
Week 4 = vs. NYG
Week 5 = at Haskins (YES!!!)
Week 6 = at SF…suddenly not so hot on offense.
Week 7 = vs. Foles
Week 8 = at Tua
Snpa Counts of Interest:
65 = Higbee
62 = Kupp
61 = Woods
37 = JReyn
33 = Van Jefferson
44 = M. Brown
24 = Akers
05 = D Henderson
69 = Gallup
68 = Amari
59 = CeeDee
15 = Taylor Rapp
54 = Aldon Smith
