R.C. Fischer

Total Football Advisor

01 January 2021

R.C. Fischer

Total Football Advisor

01 January 2021

R.C. Fischer

Total Football Advisor

01 January 2021

R.C. Fischer

Total Football Advisor

01 January 2021

R.C. Fischer

Total Football Advisor

01 January 2021

R.C. Fischer

Total Football Advisor

01 January 2021

R.C. Fischer

Total Football Advisor

01 January 2021

R.C. Fischer

FFM

26 December 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 15 Game Analysis: Titans 46, Lions 25 (Short Report)

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I normally write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

SHORT REPORT is an attempt at ‘just the facts’ report on this Week 15 game with a Week 16/title week focus for conveying what we need to know.

GAME ANALYSIS:

As you might expect… The Lions never led in this game. Titans up 7-0 quickly and led 24-15 at the half. A few minutes into the 4th-quarter the Titans took a 21-point lead. The Lions played with good effort all game…they just couldn’t hang with Tennessee.

The Titans are (10-4)…a game away from falling to a #6-7 seed or a game away from rising up to a #2 seed. Bad time for Tennessee to play the Packers in Green Bay in cold weather. The odds are that Tennessee ends up (11-5), wins the AFC South on a tiebreaker over (11-5) Indy and the Titans wind up a #4 seed…but all the extremes on outcome are still very much in play.

Detroit falls to (5-7) and the new GM and coaching search is in full effect.

WHAT DO WE NEED TO KNOW FOR WEEK 16?

 -- Marvin Jones (10-112-1/12) seasonal splits…

2.8 rec., 29.4 yards, 0.20 TDs per game = Jones Weeks 1-5 (as I dropped him everywhere)

Since then…

5.3 rec., 63.3 yards, 0.60 TDs per game = Jones Weeks 6-15 (the #18 WR in all of FF PPR)

Since Week 8, he is the #11 WR in PPR.

I don’t look so stupid for pushing this so hard in the preseason now, huh?

Doesn’t matter, I dropped him everywhere and got him back almost nowhere. Thanks for nothing you stupid idiot. Made me look stupid anyway.

Since Week 8 (PPR PPG scoring)…Marvin is #11, Curtis Samuel is #14, and Diontae is #16. I wasn’t that crazy in the preseason, was I?

 -- D’Andre Swift (15-67-2, 4-15-0/5) is getting RB1 touches/work since being named the starter. Why isn’t he ranked higher for Week 16? Facing Tampa Bay is the issue. The Bucs run defense is #1 with a bullet in yards per game allowed (77.8)…#1 in yards per carry allowed (3.4)…and #2t for rushing TDs allowed (9) this season.

 -- This season, Ryan Tannehill (21-27 for 273 yards, 3 TDs/0 INTs) is the #9 PPG (4pts TD) in fantasy…another QB1 finish for Tannehill…back-to-back seasons.

I’d like to get more excited about Week 16 at GB…but that weather forecast has me spooked.

 -- Jonnu Smith (5-52-0/6) had his first 5 catch game since Week 5 here…and his first 50+ yard game since Week 3. Nice spike, but I don’t know how you can buy it/trust it for Week 16.

ANY 2021 FUTURE THOUGHTS (Dynasty Offseason or Stash Items):

 -- TEN rookie RB Darrynton Evans (8-30-0, 2-27-1/2) got a good run at the end of the game here. I think he came in for some relief snaps but looked so quick/confident they just let him go the whole drive he came in on.

A healthy Darrynton is probably in line to be the main #2 back in 2021…not D’Onta Foreman. Evans always looks like Miles Sanders (as a player) to me, going back to his college scouting.

IDP/DST NOTES:

 -- TEN LB David Long (12 tackles, 0.5 TFLs, 1 PD) had his best game of 2020. Second week in-a-row where he played 98%+ of the snaps. Third game in a row as a starter.

SNAP COUNTS OF INTEREST:

43 = D Henry

13 = Darr Evans

08 = McNichols

63 = Jonnu

38 = Pruitt

17 = Firkser

42 = D Swift

16 = AP

07 = Kerryon

R.C. Fischer

FFM

25 December 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 15 Game Analysis: Bucs 31, Falcons 27 (Short Report)

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I normally write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

SHORT REPORT is an attempt at ‘just the facts’ report on this Week 15 game with a Week 16/title week focus for conveying what we need to know.

GAME ANALYSIS:

I have no idea how the Falcons keep losing these types of game. Atlanta led 17-0 at halftime, and I thought Bruce Arians might bench his entire team…it was a total beatdown. The Bucs then score 31 points in the 2nd-half, pull into the lead late and take it home in the end with another ‘they (the Bucs) look terrible’ win.

The Bucs should’ve lost their last two games – they were very lucky/played poorly against MIN and ATL. Had they lost those games -- it would’ve been four losses in-a-row. This Bucs team is not getting better as they go – they are getting worse, and it’s being glossed over by their lucky/sloppy wins the last two weeks. Tampa (9-5) should win out vs. DET and ATL, but I don’t know if they’re capable of winning one or both. One more win would lock down a playoff spot.

Again, the Bucs look terrible…but you know who I would not want to play in the playoffs – the Bucs. This team is scary when they put things together on both sides of the ball at the same time.

Atlanta is now (4-10), losers of four of their last 5 games. They are ensuring Raheem Morris will not be their next head coach. At KC and at TB the last two weeks means the Falcons likely finish (4-12).

WHAT DO WE NEED TO KNOW FOR WEEK 16?

 -- Look, Matt Ryan (34-49 for 356 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT) has been hot garbage for several weeks before this game…and then he comes out and destroys the Bucs pass defense. I’m telling you: (a) this Tampa team really sucks right now, especially on defense. (2) This forebodes well for Matt Stafford Week 16 in the dome vs. Tampa.

 -- Leonard Fournette (14-49-2, 3-16-0/5) looked terrible again for Tampa Bay too. He got very lucky that the Bucs hit longer passes that got guys tackled at the 1-yard line to set up the two short TD opportunities. Without the short TDs, this would have been a mess and you wouldn’t want to start him Week 16.

However, TB always gets down to the 1-yard line somehow in games and Fournette could cash in lucky again…and facing Detroit is a safe matchup for sure.

 -- The Falcons have named Ito Smith (6-24-0, 2-9-0) the official lead back, according to Raheem Morris. Two things about this…

1) He looks good. He looks spry and is giving a good effort. I wouldn’t hate on him. He’s not the worst. Not the greatest, but not terrible.

2) Facing the Chiefs this upcoming game – most opposing teams try to run to keep Mahomes off the field. If that happens Week 16 ATL at KC…Ito could/should see 12+ carries and a few targets. He might be a shock RB1 if he can find the end zone once.

 -- Antonio Brown PPR PPG since debuting for TB Week 9 = 6-14-14-3-10-20. It’s not terrible, despite playing about half a game only rotating in and out with the game flow. Not the worst WR3/Flex -- if you had to go there Week 16…vs. DET…indoors.

In that same span (since Week 9), the PPR points for Chris Godwin (4-54-0/4) in games = 7-15-18-18-5-14. Pretty stable/solid. WR1.5 work mostly.

  -- Rob Gronkowski (3-29-0/4) PPR points in games since Week 9, as well = 1-13-5-17-7-6. Trending downward but still some spike TE1 games in there.

 -- Russell Gage (5-68-1/10) vs. Chris Godwin vs. Antonio Brown in PPR points in a game since (starting with) Week 11:

14-14-03-10-20 = AB (12.2 PPR PPG)

15-18-18-05-14 = Godwin (14.0 PPR PPG)

13-06-15-19-18 = Gage (14.2 PPR PPG)

 -- Hayden Hurst (4-21-1/5) has been single digit PPR points in a game scoring for several weeks before this game, a TD boosting him here to break the streak. I don’t think he’s a real TE1 option for Week 16 because of this TD event. I just don’t see any urgency to make him part of the offense.

ANY 2021 FUTURE THOUGHTS (Dynasty Offseason or Stash Items):

 -- Ke’Shawn Vaughn (2-4-0, 0-0-0/1) entered the game midway into the 1st-half beating and had a shot to maybe steal the touches the rest of the way had he gotten hot. Instead, he dropped an easy throw on his first play. His third touch of his one series, he tripped over his own feet for a 0-yard run. He quickly came out of the game and I’m not sure I saw him in after that.

Vaughn will be the 3rd-down back and handcuff to Ronald Jones in 2021 if Arians is there. If Brady is running the team, it will be James White in Tampa with Jones.

IDP/DST NOTES:

 -- Carlton Davis (9 tackles, 1 PD) is the Bucs best cover corner, but he’s gone from dominating the 1st-half of the season to getting wrecked by opposing WRs since Week 9…something happened/he got hurt…I’m not sure what happened.

As Davis has fallen the TB pass defense has been blown up.

Davis is actually hurt/now out Week 16…opening the door wider for Marvin Jones.

SNAP COUNTS OF INTEREST:

31 = Ito Smith

16 = Gurley

15 = Br Hill

45 = Fournette

12 = McCoy

10 = K Vaughn

60 = Godwin

55 = Mk Evans

32 = A Brown

13 = Sc Miller

11 = Tyler Johnson

R.C. Fischer

FFM

25 December 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 15 Game Analysis: Dolphins 22, Patriots 12 (Short Report)

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I normally write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

SHORT REPORT is an attempt at ‘just the facts’ report on this Week 15 game with a Week 16/title week focus for conveying what we need to know.

GAME ANALYSIS:

A complete and utter embarrassment for the Patriots. One of the worst efforts by a team in a game all Week 15. When the Rams and Steelers were losing to the Jets and Bengals, there was at least a panic and effort to get back into it by the falling down/losing teams – they just got outplayed. The Patriots didn’t get outplayed, talent-wise, they just moped around the field and watched Miami take the lead in the 2nd-half (after no points scored by MIA 1st-half…because the Dolphins offense sucks) and the Patriots didn’t care or react or make much effort to regain the lead in the 4th-quarter. The moment Stephon Gilmore went down, this entire game turned. Miami was trying to give them this game and the Patriots wouldn’t take it.

New England falls out of the playoffs, and good riddance. This 2020 unit showed what Cam Newton as your lead QB does to a team – fills them with ‘shoulder shrugs’ because they know they aren’t that good, and Cam isn’t leading them back from a deficit. Belichick took this group as far as he could – but Bill is also to blame for assembling this roster.

Miami’s charmed existence continues…they’ve beaten the Jets, Bengals, Patriots their last three wins…three of the worst offenses in football. Miami is (9-5) and needs one more win to have real playoff hope, and the charmed life continues Week 16 facing the Raiders. BUT the Raiders have a shred of playoff hope if they upset Miami and the Ravens lose to NYG (very possible). If Miami gets upset by the Raiders, then the Dolphins are probably not making the playoffs considering a Week 17 game in Buffalo.

WHAT DO WE NEED TO KNOW FOR WEEK 16?

 -- Another week of 3-yard throws for Tua Tagovailoa (20-26 for 145 yards, 0 TDs/1 INT, 3-9-2)…another week where the defense has no idea how to defend it.

I know Belichick is a genius and all but dropping guys back into a soft middle-deep zone as Tua keeps throwing short passes…it’s like giving Miami free run plays in the form of short dink passes.

Instead of making Tua pocket passer downfield, the Patriots drifted backwards at the snap and defended from 10-20 yards out as Tua threw a bunch of 3-yard passes off a rollout. Tua struggles when he is in the pocket or when the field is shortened/the defense has to play up close…so his pick thrown was in the end zone -- and he rushed for two TDs (luckily) because he can’t play the same 3-yard rollout pass play near the goal line, passing is an issue because all the defenders are up close because there is nowhere else to go. So, in a panic he ran one in and later QB sneaked one.

But since NFL coaches can’t figure these basic things out, working 120 hours a week and sleeping in their offices because they’re studying so much, I’m sure Tua will complete 80%+ of his passes against the Raiders next week as they drift into Cover-Two defending the bomb as Miami eats them alive with short, safe passes.

Miami had a near 38/22 time of possession advantage in this game – an utter embarrassment of lack of effort by the Patriots. Tua’s free short passes all game helped keep the clock moving. Perhaps there is genius in the simplicity.

 -- The fact that UDFA rookie Salvon Ahmed (23-122-1, 1-5-0/3), a guy who was cut by SF and put on the practice squad and then picked up by Miami and then being thrust into emergency touches/starting a few weeks ago, could come off being injured and missing a few games and he just walk in to this game and rushes for 100+ yards in a huge game on an offense that plays everything within five yards of the line of scrimmage – it tells you how disinterested the Patriots were in playing this game. They couldn’t stop the Miami run game at all…and it’s not that great a run game.

Myles Gaskin will be back this week. Flores will likely give him the lead role right back. It will probably be a 75/25 Gaskin-Ahmed touches Week 16, but 50/50 could happen if Ahmed gets hot.

 -- Lynn Bowden (6-37-0/7) is going to keep having these same games with Parker-Grant out. He fits the Tua short game…a good amount of catches for little yards because Bowden has shown nothing after the catch or on any running plays this season. He’s not a player of the future, but you could get 6-50-0 next week for PPR if Parker-Grant are out again.

 -- Durham Smythe (5-40-0/5) won the ‘Gesicki is out and Tua craves throwing to the TE’ sweepstakes. Gesicki might be back this week, so that means Gesicki will go right back into his TE1 role…the downfield prayer throw for Tua, hoping the tall guy catches it over the shorter DBs.

ANY 2021 FUTURE THOUGHTS (Dynasty Offseason or Stash Items):

 -- Sony Michel (10-74-0, 1-8-0/1) was one Patriot giving an effort…and he was effective, so it only makes sense for him to have just 10 carries (but Miami so dominated time of possession, and Cam HAD to get his rushing in to show off for a contract in free agency 2021).

Michel is fighting for his football future…and future crowded by the Patriots RBBC ways, and a more talented Damien Harris (DNP) on the roster. Michel and Harris are back next year, which means an RBBC involving those two…but likely not involving free agent James White.

When Patriots RBs can, they bail for money elsewhere…usually to a team run by recent Patriots’ coaches. So, White to Tennessee or NYG or Miami in the offseason is likely.

 -- Maybe they will develop more in 2021, but I have not seen anything in Devin Asiasi (0-0-0/1) or Dalton Keene (1-2-0/2) that would have my interest for FF at all.

 -- Jakobi Meyers (7-111-0/10) really looks promising as a pass catcher/nice route runner. My PPR-interest is piqued for FF 2021+, but I don’t know who the QB will be or the surrounding WR group to get more excited yet.

N’Keal Harry (1-12-0/2) has nearly fully died here in New England…making me wonder why supposed stud WRs aren’t ever developing with the Patriots? Only lowly drafted/undrafted underneath pass catchers rise up…never any outside, dominant ones.

Is Belichick picking the wrong players…or they can’t really develop them within their offense? I have no interest in Harry for FF until further notice.

IDP/DST NOTES:

 -- NE LB Terez Hall (13 tackles) has been playing solid IDP football. 7.6 tackles per game in the games he’s played more than 20% of the snaps in (6 games). He’s become a starter (this game). He’s getting numbers…but Miami also just ran for 250 yards on the Patriots, so my questions on Hall’s talent are valid – a 4.9 runner.

He’s giving 150% effort but may have 50% of the skills needed to be a legit NFL starter. But sometimes effort wins out in the end. I’m not that excited for his IDP future, but it’s working solidly of late for IDP use.

 -- Stephon Gilmore out the rest of the season is a boost for Buffalo’s offense Week 16. You’d think it great for Stefon Diggs…but note that Pats CB J.C. Jackson has held opposing WRs to 58.6% Comp. Pct. and QBs have just a 58.0 QB rating throwing at him this season. It’s not a gimme week for Diggs Week 16…as JCJ will probably shadow Diggs...but not 100%/all the time.

SNAP COUNTS OF INTEREST:

44 = Ahmed

18 = Breida

08 = Laird

43 = Shaheen

41 = Smythe

29 = Keene

27 = Asiasi

27 = White

23 = Michel

05 = JJ Taylor