- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 12 Game Analysis: Titans 45, Colts 26
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
The Titans lost to the Colts just two weeks prior…but that was a game that Tennessee was winning, then a comedy of errors ensued (missed FGs, shanked punts) and let the Colts back in…to win. This game, the Titans just put the hammer down on the Colts. It was 35-14 Titans at the half. 38-14 at the end of three. A bunch of Colts garbage got it a bit closer, but this was a Titans crush event.
The Titans are just better than the Colts, period. Judging their two matchups in three weeks – the judge’s scorecard goes strong to Tennessee. Whatever you think about the Titans strength (or not), however you would grade them – they are better than the Colts top-to-bottom, from QB to coaching, to overall team. We’d all say the Colts have a better 1-53 roster of talent…so the fact that the Titans are just better than them on the field, clearly (and in record to date) – it’s on the coaching and the QB. Neither is getting any better anytime soon. The Andy Reid coaching tree is rotting away (Nagy, Pederson, Reich/Ballard).
Tennessee is going to win the AFC South, almost assuredly. They should finish with 11 wins and walk away with the division. Worst case 10 wins and get it via tiebreakers.
Indianapolis falls to (7-4) and their wild card playoff life probably comes down to Week 14 at Las Vegas – the winner of that game is a likely wild card, and the loser is sent scrambling to get in. We currently project Indy going (9-7) and up in the air for a playoff spot…but not looking great with a loss to Cleveland already, and if they lose to Vegas.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- A very odd shift is taking place at tight end in Tennessee…a shift away from the very talented Jonnu Smith (0-0-0/0)…the early season top 2-3 fantasy TE, for 4 weeks.
Here were the TE snap counts in this game from the TEs (and the subsequent stat lines for each)…
54 snaps = Jonnu (0-0-0/0)
45 = Geoff Swaim (3-30-0/3)
20 = Anthony Firkser (0-0-0/1)
Swaim is primarily known for his blocking skills, but since he was activated in Week 5 he’s played 6 games, got hurt in one of them and left early, but started four of the other 5 games…playing 55-65% of the snaps each game. He’s on the field a bunch. He’s seeing targets now. I noticed a few pass plays with Jonnu and Swaim running routes on the same play and Tannehill going to a less open Swaim over Jonnu.
The last few weeks I was hearing a drum beat of Anthony Firkser being their most trusted receiving TE, internally being thought/said.
At the same time, Jonnu’s targets/catches/production have fallen off a cliff (and Weeks 1-4 Jonnu was a top 2-3 FF TE). When did Jonnu’s targets start falling? Week 6. When did Swaim get back on the field? Week 5.
I can’t tell you what is going on with the Jonnu decline, or which Tennessee TE is best for fantasy right now (none, is the answer). All I know is…Jonnu is being iced out of the passing game, no longer is he that guy from Weeks 1-4. In redraft, he’s droppable. He has been for a few weeks now.
-- The best FF TE to own from this game, to have on your team right now? It has to be Trey Burton (3-42-1/6), inexplicably.
In recent weeks, all I see is Rivers trying to force the ball to Burton on 3rd-downs and in the red zone/end zone. Burton looks like a shell of himself from former days, but Rivers is going there every week…who am I to turn my nose up at it?
Since getting active, Burton has had no less than 3 targets each game but usually sees 4-5 throws and he has 3 receiving TDs and 2 rushing TDs, 5 TDs total in 8 games. Most TEs will not have 5 TDs all season, Burton has 5 already despite missing Weeks 1-3.
-- Jonathan Taylor (DNP) didn’t play this game due to COVID, which is a shame because the prior week he had his big game against Green Bay…I was thinking maybe the Colts would try to ride a power run game and defense ahead – but no Taylor took that away for this game.
Taylor returns this week, hopefully. It will be interesting to see what Frank Reich does with the team/offense now -- with his job potentially under the gun if they fail to make the playoffs. You can power run over the Houston Texans Week 13, but that doesn’t mean that’s what Reich will do.
My guess is…he does what he always does – unpredictable RBBC.
-- D’Onta Foreman (4-28-0) and Jeremy McNichols (8-20-0, 0-0-0/1) both saw carries in this game…McNichols more touches and more snaps. So, does that make McNichols the proper handcuff?
I think if Henry went down, it would be a 50/50, 60/40 split the first week with Foreman taking the most carries, and McNichols working as more of the pass game back. But if Tennessee wanted to replicate Henry’s game – it would be Foreman becoming the one to own (with McNichols still having a role). He’s the guy looking like/running like Derrick Henry.
-- Michael Pittman (2-28-0/9) had another game that keeps me away from him for FF…it’s not on him, this is a Rivers issue. Rivers’ targeting has been erratic/inconsistent/unpredictable to the WRs all season. Things seem to be shifting more towards T.Y. Hilton (4-81-/1/5) of late, and that connection doesn’t look great either.
Honestly, if I had to say what Rivers’ favorite, or most forced throw is – I’d say it’s Trey Burton, oddly.
-- I’ve been warning that the Colts-DST is not as good as everyone thinks. They got whacked here. They got whacked for chunks of their Green Bay game the week prior. Indy-DST bolstered their scoring against weak offenses (NYJ, CHI) early in the season and have been fading since.
HOU-LV-HOU-PIT the next 4 weeks is not a great set up to get them back to big FF scoring either.
-- The Titans-DST is the better DST to have the next 3 weeks: versus CLE-JAX-DET. The Titans aren’t great on defense either but they’re not terrible…they’re about as good as Indy, but with a better schedule upcoming.
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Snap Counts of Interest:
38 = Alie-Cox
27 = Burton
22 = Doyle
36 = Henry
18 = McNichols
05 = Foreman
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 12 Game Analysis: Vikings 28, Panthers 27
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
What an entertaining game.
It didn’t start out all that entertaining…a 10-7 Vikings lead at the half. Neither team really standing out. However, fireworks went off in the 2nd-half.
In the span of 0:10 game seconds, from 14:01 to 13:51 of the 3rd-quarter, the Panthers got two turnovers back-to-back and converted them both to TDs, both by the same defender (Jeremy Chinn, who may have had his Defensive Rookie of the Year moment here). The Panthers were suddenly in control 21-10.
The Panthers led 24-13, after a Joey Slye FG, with 11+ minutes left in the game. It looked like a Carolina win was coming…and they’d be alive in the playoff hunt.
The Vikings scored with 5+ minutes left to cut it to 24-21. Minnesota then held the Panthers, but on the ensuing punt…Chad Beebe muffed it, turnover, and Carolina with a subsequent field goal to take a 27-21 lead with 1:51 left.
Minnesota then flies down the field and scores a TD (Beebe redemption) to take a 28-27 lead with 0:46 remaining. But then the Panthers fly down the field and lined up for a 54-yard FG attempt to win…the second time in four weeks that the Panthers had a chance to win with a long FG at the buzzer – and Slye shanked it…ball game.
Carolina falls to a heartbreaking (4-8)…so close to a (6-6) or better right now. They’re a low-level playoff caliber team who might finish with 5-6 wins as they use the final weeks to prep for 2021. I want them to lose out so their over/under win total bet for 2021 is as low as possible. I don’t care what the number is, I’m betting Carolina win total ‘over’ and betting them to win the NFC South. Carolina is ‘my’ team starting, officially, in 2021. Matt Rhule is going to be the dominant force head coach of the NFL into the future. Matt Rhule vs. Kyle Shanahan will be the debate in 3-4-5-6-10 years. I go with Rhule.
Round of applause for the Vikings…a terrible (1-5) start, now (5-6) and are the current #7 seed for the playoffs. Winners of four of their last 5 games. They should finish (8-8), with (9-7) possible…and 8 wins is likely good enough to get the #7 seed in the NFC. Week 15 vs. CHI is likely the season for both teams – winner is a wild card, loser is not, possibly.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The Panthers seem to be throttling back on the Mike Davis (15-55-0, 3-24-0/6) workload as the season rolls on, which makes sense – he’s an older back who was thrust into a prime role and carried the team early in the season. He’s taken a lot of hits…he always has his entire career and been injury prone because of it. He fights for every yard, and that can be detrimental to his health.
Now that the Panthers are kinda of ‘out of it’ for the playoffs, they are not pushing Davis at all costs…Matt Rhule is smartly (and ‘head coach’ and ‘smart’ can only be used for about 2-4 coaches in the entire league) rotating in younger backs to not only spell Davis – but to see what they got for the future. Why not? It’s smart business management…a thing that 25+ other NFL head coaches never do/have a clue on – business management.
UDFA rookie RB Rodney Smith (7-18-0) has gone from ‘off the streets’ to taking meaningful carries in games (this week and last week). Trenton Cannon (3-17-0) took some carries in this game. Davis had 15 carries; Smith-Cannon took 10 carries in a key game here.
I type all this because:
1) If Christian McCaffrey is not back Week 14, the Panthers may lean even more into a split role backfield because they are playing for the future. No need to grind Mike Davis into the ground. Thus, Davis’s FF upside may be limited ahead.
2) Do you think the Panthers, out of it for the playoffs…playing for 2021+, are going to bring back CMC and shove him 25+ touches instantly in a time where he’s not been 100% most all season?
You should be a little nervous if you’re counting on CMC or Mike D big for the FF playoff stretch. I’m not saying they’re doomed…just there are ‘signs’ creeping in that they may not get the touches you want/need ahead.
-- On the other side of the field, an assistant coach mentioned this week that Dalvin Cook (18-61-0, 4-21-0/4) was getting worn down from his heavy workload in 2020…and Mike Zimmer tried to shut that talk down, but it’s true.
With Cook taking a ton of touches/hits this year, and him being so key to the offense, and with a Week 14 game at Tampa Bay looming, and then a super-critical Week 15 v. CHI – Minnesota needs Dalvin Cook 100% down the stretch.
Do you think the Vikings will overload Cook Week 13 vs. Jacksonville…or will they throttle him back some and get him ready for TB and CHI…and NO the following three weeks?
Logic says they throttle him back where they can. NFL old school, out to lunch head coach logic says Cook gets 30+ touches in a 30+ point win over Jacksonville.
-- The Vikings can beat Jacksonville behind Kirk Cousins (34-45 for 207 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) because he is white hot again…a second season in a row where he started slow and then was fire from about Weeks 2-3 on.
Since Week 3, Cousins has 21 TD passes/7 INTs (9 games). The #11 QB in PPG in fantasy (4pts per pass TD) in that stretch, #9 in 6pts per pass TD…firmly ahead of Big Ben, Jared Goff, Matt Ryan, Teddy B, Cam, and Philip Rivers among others.
JAX and TB the next two weeks…should be a continuation.
-- Kyle Rudolph (7-68-0/8) had his best game of 2020 this week…with Irv Smith out again.
4.3 rec., 49.8 yards, 0.0 TDs per game his past 4 games…just one TD all season. He’s a possible TE1 vs. JAX if Irv Smith is out again. The Jags aren’t great against the TE as it is. Rudolph is so overdue for a TD.
-- Chad Beebe (7-63-1/7) played a great Cole Beasley/Adam Humphries type game here. He’s capable of rounding out the three-man WR sets and giving the Vikings some decent juice in the passing game. But you can’t count on him for FF week-to-week. He’s not there yet, and probably will never be in this offense…unless Thielen is out again.
-- D.J. Moore (4-61-0/9) landed awkwardly on a leaping catch attempt and has a leg injury. His status for Week 14 is too soon to tell. Again, the Panthers don’t need to ‘push’ players back into action…so, Moore may get the extra week off – which would be more targets for Curtis Samuel (1-5-0, 5-72-0/5).
-- CAR DT/NT Zach Kerr (8 tackles, 1.0 sacks, 1 QB hit), a journeyman DT, has quietly caught fire of late…
5.3 total tackles per game, 0.67 sacks, 1.7 QB hits per game his past 3 games playing about a 40-50% snap share.
-- Can you use the Vikings-DST with confidence Week 13 v. JAX? Probably.
The Vikings defense has slowly started to evolve from terrible to not-so-bad. They gave up 27 points this game…but 14 of them were defensive scores. They’ve held their last 5 opponents to an average of 19.8 offensive PPG. That’s high end these days…and they held Green Bay to 22 points in that span as well. Not just crushing patsies.
With their defense coming around. With Kirk Cousins catching fire. With a top run game – I am taking my Survivor Pool pick to Minnesota over the hapless Jags.
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Link to Amazon main page: https://www.amazon.com/?&_encoding=UTF8&tag=tfawesbite11-20&linkCode=ur2&linkId=44051c116edf4a75e87f1aae12955357&camp=1789&creative=9325
Snap Counts of Interest:
72 = J Jefferson
58 = Bisi Johnson
35 = Beebe
46 = Cook
12 = Mattison
37 = MK Davis
15 = Rodney Smith
10 = Cannon
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 7 Game Analysis: Steelers 19, Ravens 14
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
We waited a week…to watch this game? Yeeesh.
We had to put up with all histrionics of all the rescheduling, and who that was and wasn’t fair for. We had to hear, from some, the decrying of the NFL as some monster for trying to play this game with their ‘basically everyone is gonna die’ mentality. Maybe it’s true…but the players are exercising their free will – if everyone reading this were an NFL player, 99.9% of us would play…we would want to play…so, why is the ‘NFL’ such a monster for trying to play the games? COVID exists. The teams know the rules. The teams know it could randomly happen. You just have to adjust.
We all waded through the noise and rescheduling…and then most of us got interested in the novelty of a midday Wednesday game. We were giddy in the morning, ready to partake in an afternoon delight…when we were supposed to be (air quotes) ‘working’. What a fun Wednesday!
…and they delivered us a bunch of turnovers, a bunch of drops, a bunch of 2-yard passes, and a no real ‘wow’ fantasy player production…aside from the Steelers-DST and Marquise Brown (who no one started) on a busted play late.
Football in the afternoon midweek just felt weird. Like when they tried to sell green-colored ketchup a few years ago. Yeah, I know it’s the same everything on taste, consistency… just its just it’s green -- but I’m still not comfortable with it. I’ve been classically conditioned that red ketchup tastes better/normal. 4pm football is to be played on Sundays…not Wednesdays.
This game was muddling along…a defensive score to break the ice by Pittsburgh, but then Baltimore answering back to make 7-6 at the end of the 1st-quarter. The game turned when Ravens CB Jimmy Smith got hurt in the 2nd-quarter…forcing the Ravens to play with another arm tied behind their backs and the Steelers dinked and dunked their way to a 19-7 lead. It seemed over…and then Pittsburgh’s secondary blew a tackle and let Marquise Brown turn a 10+ yard pass into a 70-yard TD scamper. The Ravens couldn’t hold off the Steelers final drive (they almost did) and the clock ran out on the Ravens. Steelers win, unimpressively, 19-14.
After the game, Mike Tomlin called the Steelers effort ‘really junior varsity’ – and that’s my thought on the whole game. Not because of the rosters or COVID or lack of practice…we’ve seen teams lose practice time to COVID issues this year -- and then go out and play better than they have all season. This was just a sloppy game…that the players may have been thrown off their internal clocks playing a game on a Wednesday. Who knows?
Pittsburgh stays undefeated (11-0) and all but has the AFC North locked up…there’s no way Cleveland is catching them. They are bearing down on the #1 seed in the AFC which is tremendously important in 2020. I think the Steelers will fall to Buffalo Week 14…and then things get interesting between them and KC trying to get to the #1 seed.
Baltimore has lost four of their last 5 games to fall to (6-5). They are better than that, but they’ve dealt with key injuries, COVID, bad weather games. Given their schedule, and their situation leading up to this – we might see the Ravens go on a tear and win their last five games in-a-row and go into the playoffs hot. We see them doing just that…finishing (11-5) if Lamar stays healthy…(10-6) worst case. Either way…the Ravens will be in the playoffs.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The Steelers WR report…
1) Diontae Johnson (8-46-0/13) had two bad drops…one that might have been a TD (early in the game) and another drop late in the game for a 20+ yard gain wiped away. It wasn’t a good look for Diontae, but he was otherwise fine the rest of the night.
I hate ‘drops’ too…and when it’s your fantasy guy, you can feel the points being stolen – but we also will so lord over our own ‘kids’ watching these games and thus their mistakes are magnified and blown up into major mental anguish. I had some folks emailing me in-game and post-game asking me if it was time to sell Diontae because of his bad drops problem because he dropped 4-5 passes in the game. I’m like…I need to watch the tape, because I didn’t see that many drops – and I did re-watch, and there weren’t 4-5 drops. But because we’re so close to the action, we tend to remember it that way.
When Diontae caught that 30+ yard pass by adjusting/leaping up and catching it but then the DB swatted his arm down through the ball while they were coming down to the ground and it get knocked loose for an incomplete – that’s not a ‘drop’. It was almost a sweet catch (but a great move by the covering CB) and we’re disappointed, but it’s not a ‘drop’.
Diontae has had easy catch gaffes a bunch this season…a ‘bunch’ to me, because I’m always watching him intently. He’s had like 5-6-7 times this season where he’s had a simple pitch-and-catch and he takes his eyes away and misses the passes and looks stupid. I hope a coach steps in and helps ‘remind’ (needles/punishes) him of this – because I think Diontae is getting a bit full of himself with all these targets but he should work less on dance moves after big plays and more on playing sound football.
Diontae could be great…he could also get a big head and settle for just ‘good’ instead. Ben keeps feeding him, so the monster is getting fed. I don’t know how serious he is on being great, as I watch his every move this season. I know he’s really good. I want great.
Diontae was once again being shutout by the Ravens’ CBs, and then Jimmy Smith got hurt and left the game…AND THEN Diontae started getting all those targets. Diontae is getting ‘A+’ targeting but being a ‘B’ WR with them, to my eyes. Drops, etc., hasn’t been an issue in years past (back to college), so I think it can be fixed/tweaked…but it’s probably a boot in the ass fix more than anything else. Tomlin, I think may let him have it this week…he was not happy after the game.
2) Chase Claypool (6-52-0/9) – not sure why Claypool wasn’t in the game as much as he usually is…he was noticeably out for whole serieses late 2nd-half. We’ll have to see if that was due to being banged up…or if it was some rookie disciplining for something.
3) James Washington (2-19-0/3) – made a huge catch on the final drive to essentially help put the game away…a floated pass between three defenders and JW went up and snatched it away. Just a reminder, for Dynasty…Washington is going to be a starter in 2021, if you assume the Steelers let JuJu walk in free agency, which I think they will.
JuJu has put up good numbers as Diontae-Claypool have gone off…Washington could be in line for some nice numbers in 2021 as part of the trio.
-- Ben Roethlisberger (36-51 for 266 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) is getting rid of the ball quickly…so said Cris Collinsworth 10,000 times during the game.
Three things about that…
1) 51 passes for 266 yards here…why is it when Alex Smith does stuff like this we castigate him as a ‘dink and dunk’ QB, but we don’t brand Ben negatively with this? We sing the praises of it.
The bottom five QBs in yards per attempt in 2020 to date:
#32) Foles 9.2
#31) Roethlisberger 9.6
#30) Darnold 9.7
#29) Alex Smith 10.0
#28) Brees 10.0
Ben is 5th in the NFL TD passes…so, does yards per attempt really matter/tell us anything?
2) I think some of this short passing game has them using it as a quasi-replacement for the weak Steelers backfield/run game.
3) All these factors/realities…it means lots of short/quick pass attempts – Ben is #2 in pass attempts in the NFL (Brady #1). This is all good for PPR for Diontae Johnson’s game…the quick little slants, drags, bubbles, etc.
I don’t see Ben quick-passing changing ahead.
-- Lamar Jackson (DNP) hasn’t had a great follow up season to his 2019 MVP campaign – but the next 5 games he could finish on a high note with DAL-CLE-JAX-NYG-CIN.
-- I thought Lamar might finish stronger and be using Dez Bryant (0-0-0/2) as part of the solution going forward…after Dez showed he was the most talented WR on the Ravens Week 11.
Which, of course, meant Dez saw just two targets in a critical, undermanned game here.
Why did they even sign him and elevate him to the main roster?
What were they watching when he showed his skills in Week 11?
I got the message… When in doubt, assume NFL teams will stick with what they do/are comfortable with…even if they keep losing with it.
That’s where Pittsburgh deserves huge credit…most teams would have buried Chase Claypool all season. Not the Steelers. It took them 3-4 games to realize he’s the best WR they have on the team and they moved him to a featured role.
-- Speaking of buried players, Justice Hill (9-35-0, 2-5-0/2) was let out of his cage for the first time…and he looked solid. Joining the Ravens, in this offense, has all but killed his career. He’s been forgotten through no fault of his own. He doesn’t fit this offense at all…and yet he just gets stuck with this team until his contract ends.
No one will trade for him because the only mismanagement worse than head coaches not knowing their talent on the roster are the GMs petrified to make a trade in the NFL for fear it will be ‘wrong’. Now, Hill is ‘old news’, so no one cares in the league.
-- What a schedule ahead for the Ravens-DST: Dalton, Baker, Glennon, Dan Jones, Br Allen to finish the season.
It’s not bad for the Steelers either: A. Smith, Josh Allen, Br Allen, Rivers, Baker. The Steelers-DST has been great all year but I’d rather have the Ravens-DST from here on in…and if you’re locked in with the Steelers-DST – you gotta consider a Week 14 replacement for at Buffalo, if a viable option presents itself. Maybe the weather conditions help roll with the Steelers-DST there, we’ll see.
*Shopping Online with Amazon this Holiday Season? Who isn’t?
Did you know if you click through the Amazon link from the FFM homepage (our partners/shop with us area) it doesn’t change your online shopping experience or cost you any money but somehow the big brother technology credits FFM with helping with the sale and we gets some of Jeff Bezos’s scraps from his solid gold dinner table to help support the FFM efforts and fund our own future technology improvements? It’s one click away, nothing else needed or to register. Thank you for your consideration!
Special Link to Amazon main page: https://www.amazon.com/?&_encoding=UTF8&tag=tfawesbite11-20&linkCode=ur2&linkId=44051c116edf4a75e87f1aae12955357&camp=1789&creative=9325
Snap Counts of Interest:
28 = Edwards
26 = J Hill
67 = JuJu
65 = Diontae
45 = Claypool
24 = J Wash
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 12 Game Analysis: Steelers 19, Ravens 14
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
We waited a week…to watch this game? Yeeesh.
We had to put up with all histrionics of all the rescheduling, and who that was and wasn’t fair for. We had to hear, from some, the decrying of the NFL as some monster for trying to play this game with their ‘basically everyone is gonna die’ mentality. Maybe it’s true…but the players are exercising their free will – if everyone reading this were an NFL player, 99.9% of us would play…we would want to play…so, why is the ‘NFL’ such a monster for trying to play the games? COVID exists. The teams know the rules. The teams know it could randomly happen. You just have to adjust.
We all waded through the noise and rescheduling…and then most of us got interested in the novelty of a midday Wednesday game. We were giddy in the morning, ready to partake in an afternoon delight…when we were supposed to be (air quotes) ‘working’. What a fun Wednesday!
…and they delivered us a bunch of turnovers, a bunch of drops, a bunch of 2-yard passes, and a no real ‘wow’ fantasy player production…aside from the Steelers-DST and Marquise Brown (who no one started) on a busted play late.
Football in the afternoon midweek just felt weird. Like when they tried to sell green-colored ketchup a few years ago. Yeah, I know it’s the same everything on taste, consistency… just its just it’s green -- but I’m still not comfortable with it. I’ve been classically conditioned that red ketchup tastes better/normal. 4pm football is to be played on Sundays…not Wednesdays.
This game was muddling along…a defensive score to break the ice by Pittsburgh, but then Baltimore answering back to make 7-6 at the end of the 1st-quarter. The game turned when Ravens CB Jimmy Smith got hurt in the 2nd-quarter…forcing the Ravens to play with another arm tied behind their backs and the Steelers dinked and dunked their way to a 19-7 lead. It seemed over…and then Pittsburgh’s secondary blew a tackle and let Marquise Brown turn a 10+ yard pass into a 70-yard TD scamper. The Ravens couldn’t hold off the Steelers final drive (they almost did) and the clock ran out on the Ravens. Steelers win, unimpressively, 19-14.
After the game, Mike Tomlin called the Steelers effort ‘really junior varsity’ – and that’s my thought on the whole game. Not because of the rosters or COVID or lack of practice…we’ve seen teams lose practice time to COVID issues this year -- and then go out and play better than they have all season. This was just a sloppy game…that the players may have been thrown off their internal clocks playing a game on a Wednesday. Who knows?
Pittsburgh stays undefeated (11-0) and all but has the AFC North locked up…there’s no way Cleveland is catching them. They are bearing down on the #1 seed in the AFC which is tremendously important in 2020. I think the Steelers will fall to Buffalo Week 14…and then things get interesting between them and KC trying to get to the #1 seed.
Baltimore has lost four of their last 5 games to fall to (6-5). They are better than that, but they’ve dealt with key injuries, COVID, bad weather games. Given their schedule, and their situation leading up to this – we might see the Ravens go on a tear and win their last five games in-a-row and go into the playoffs hot. We see them doing just that…finishing (11-5) if Lamar stays healthy…(10-6) worst case. Either way…the Ravens will be in the playoffs.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The Steelers WR report…
1) Diontae Johnson (8-46-0/13) had two bad drops…one that might have been a TD (early in the game) and another drop late in the game for a 20+ yard gain wiped away. It wasn’t a good look for Diontae, but he was otherwise fine the rest of the night.
I hate ‘drops’ too…and when it’s your fantasy guy, you can feel the points being stolen – but we also will so lord over our own ‘kids’ watching these games and thus their mistakes are magnified and blown up into major mental anguish. I had some folks emailing me in-game and post-game asking me if it was time to sell Diontae because of his bad drops problem because he dropped 4-5 passes in the game. I’m like…I need to watch the tape, because I didn’t see that many drops – and I did re-watch, and there weren’t 4-5 drops. But because we’re so close to the action, we tend to remember it that way.
When Diontae caught that 30+ yard pass by adjusting/leaping up and catching it but then the DB swatted his arm down through the ball while they were coming down to the ground and it get knocked loose for an incomplete – that’s not a ‘drop’. It was almost a sweet catch (but a great move by the covering CB) and we’re disappointed, but it’s not a ‘drop’.
Diontae has had easy catch gaffes a bunch this season…a ‘bunch’ to me, because I’m always watching him intently. He’s had like 5-6-7 times this season where he’s had a simple pitch-and-catch and he takes his eyes away and misses the passes and looks stupid. I hope a coach steps in and helps ‘remind’ (needles/punishes) him of this – because I think Diontae is getting a bit full of himself with all these targets but he should work less on dance moves after big plays and more on playing sound football.
Diontae could be great…he could also get a big head and settle for just ‘good’ instead. Ben keeps feeding him, so the monster is getting fed. I don’t know how serious he is on being great, as I watch his every move this season. I know he’s really good. I want great.
Diontae was once again being shutout by the Ravens’ CBs, and then Jimmy Smith got hurt and left the game…AND THEN Diontae started getting all those targets. Diontae is getting ‘A+’ targeting but being a ‘B’ WR with them, to my eyes. Drops, etc., hasn’t been an issue in years past (back to college), so I think it can be fixed/tweaked…but it’s probably a boot in the ass fix more than anything else. Tomlin, I think may let him have it this week…he was not happy after the game.
2) Chase Claypool (6-52-0/9) – not sure why Claypool wasn’t in the game as much as he usually is…he was noticeably out for whole serieses late 2nd-half. We’ll have to see if that was due to being banged up…or if it was some rookie disciplining for something.
3) James Washington (2-19-0/3) – made a huge catch on the final drive to essentially help put the game away…a floated pass between three defenders and JW went up and snatched it away. Just a reminder, for Dynasty…Washington is going to be a starter in 2021, if you assume the Steelers let JuJu walk in free agency, which I think they will.
JuJu has put up good numbers as Diontae-Claypool have gone off…Washington could be in line for some nice numbers in 2021 as part of the trio.
-- Ben Roethlisberger (36-51 for 266 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) is getting rid of the ball quickly…so said Cris Collinsworth 10,000 times during the game.
Three things about that…
1) 51 passes for 266 yards here…why is it when Alex Smith does stuff like this we castigate him as a ‘dink and dunk’ QB, but we don’t brand Ben negatively with this? We sing the praises of it.
The bottom five QBs in yards per attempt in 2020 to date:
#32) Foles 9.2
#31) Roethlisberger 9.6
#30) Darnold 9.7
#29) Alex Smith 10.0
#28) Brees 10.0
Ben is 5th in the NFL TD passes…so, does yards per attempt really matter/tell us anything?
2) I think some of this short passing game has them using it as a quasi-replacement for the weak Steelers backfield/run game.
3) All these factors/realities…it means lots of short/quick pass attempts – Ben is #2 in pass attempts in the NFL (Brady #1). This is all good for PPR for Diontae Johnson’s game…the quick little slants, drags, bubbles, etc.
I don’t see Ben quick-passing changing ahead.
-- Lamar Jackson (DNP) hasn’t had a great follow up season to his 2019 MVP campaign – but the next 5 games he could finish on a high note with DAL-CLE-JAX-NYG-CIN.
-- I thought Lamar might finish stronger and be using Dez Bryant (0-0-0/2) as part of the solution going forward…after Dez showed he was the most talented WR on the Ravens Week 11.
Which, of course, meant Dez saw just two targets in a critical, undermanned game here.
Why did they even sign him and elevate him to the main roster?
What were they watching when he showed his skills in Week 11?
I got the message… When in doubt, assume NFL teams will stick with what they do/are comfortable with…even if they keep losing with it.
That’s where Pittsburgh deserves huge credit…most teams would have buried Chase Claypool all season. Not the Steelers. It took them 3-4 games to realize he’s the best WR they have on the team and they moved him to a featured role.
-- Speaking of buried players, Justice Hill (9-35-0, 2-5-0/2) was let out of his cage for the first time…and he looked solid. Joining the Ravens, in this offense, has all but killed his career. He’s been forgotten through no fault of his own. He doesn’t fit this offense at all…and yet he just gets stuck with this team until his contract ends.
No one will trade for him because the only mismanagement worse than head coaches not knowing their talent on the roster are the GMs petrified to make a trade in the NFL for fear it will be ‘wrong’. Now, Hill is ‘old news’, so no one cares in the league.
-- What a schedule ahead for the Ravens-DST: Dalton, Baker, Glennon, Dan Jones, Br Allen to finish the season.
It’s not bad for the Steelers either: A. Smith, Josh Allen, Br Allen, Rivers, Baker. The Steelers-DST has been great all year but I’d rather have the Ravens-DST from here on in…and if you’re locked in with the Steelers-DST – you gotta consider a Week 14 replacement for at Buffalo, if a viable option presents itself. Maybe the weather conditions help roll with the Steelers-DST there, we’ll see.
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Snap Counts of Interest:
28 = Edwards
26 = J Hill
67 = JuJu
65 = Diontae
45 = Claypool
24 = J Wash
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 12 Game Analysis: Browns 27, Jaguars 25
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
Facing a Jaguars team who benched it’s QB for their 3rd-string, ancient QB (Glennon), and with half their defense on I.R. -- what should have been an easy Cleveland win was really a loss that the Browns survived in the end and escaped with a 2-point win.
The Jaguars took the lead with 11+ minutes left in the 3rd-quarter, but the Browns took it back and held it the rest of the way. Up 27-19, the Jags scored to make it 27-25 and lined up to go for a two-pointer to tie it up and failed. The Brown held the ball from there/ran out the clock for the win. The Jags lost by two…missing a field goal and blowing two different 2-point conversions in the game.
The Jaguars should’ve won and Mike Glennon arguably outplayed Baker Mayfield…that’s all you need to know about this game, this Browns team.
Cleveland has to be the worst (8-3) team in the history of professional football. They’re likely to finish (9-7) and then hope to make the wild card. If they can beat Tennessee Week 13…they are very likely a wild card/10-win team. I don’t think they’ll beat Tennessee or make the playoffs in the end. If there's any justice in the world, the Browns will not make the playoffs.
Jacksonville almost ruined their ‘tank plan’ by accidentally winning this game. But they found a way to lose, 10 losses in a row, which got their GM fired this week (2-4 years overdue). Jacksonville should finish (1-15) and has to hope the Jets lose twice, in order for the Jags to snag that #1 pick. Likely, they will be drafting #2 overall behind a winless Jets team.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Mike Glennon (20-35 for 225 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) drew the start and played a very solid game. The protection held up for him/his lack of foot speed never factored into this event negatively. Glennon is a solid enough QB prospect – a QB from a gone-by era…tall, statue-esque in the pocket, deep ball thrower. The Browns barely laid a finger on him – no sacks, just 2 QB hits.
It was a mild defensive embarrassment for this supposed playoff team. We do have to allow for Cleveland missing the two best players on their team (Garrett, Ward) and not having its starting ILB and losing its main safety in-game. Still, you can’t let Mike Glennon, behind this Jags O-Line without D.J. Chark, push you around.
This version of Mike Glennon isn’t leading a team to a Super Bowl, but it isn’t embarrassing itself. Keep him protected and he’s a decent, experienced QB.
What’s shocking to me is that Gardner Minshew is back from his thumb injury…and Glennon is getting another start. For what purpose? Who did Minshew piss off? Doug Marrone, I assume. How Doug Marrone is still employed is beyond me – but, if you want to lose games…you need a coach that’s going to help you lose games. Check, and check…and thus Glennon for another week. Marrone/Jacksonville is (3-16) in their last 19 games.
The teams ahead on the JAX schedule are going to pressure Glennon and make this look uglier – MIN, TEN, BAL, CHI, IND.
-- But Glennon looked better/more sound than Baker Mayfield (19-29 for 258 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) in this game. Glennon played a steady ‘C’ grade football game, all game. Baker’s performance was like charting a water bug’s movement all day…he was all over the place with some ‘A’ throws followed by ‘D’ and ‘F’ throws.
In a game Baker should’ve dominated, with Jacksonville missing so many defensive players -- he didn’t…he looked more like what you thought Glennon would at times. Other times, Baker made money throws. Baker is making this look too complicated. Sometimes he looks great and you start to have hope, then the next series you’re like ‘Man, he’s too small for the NFL’.
-- Baker was wearing out Jarvis Landry (8-143-1/11) for the first time ever, which is neat but this was a game where everyone was open all over and it should’ve been a field day…instead Baker was forcing it to Landry like he was his crutch to get by on.
I’ve never seen Baker + Landry be this heavy, productive…I’m going to assume it’s a one off. Landry had 1 TD in his last 15 games with Baker, now he has 2 TDs in 16 games. This is not what a WR1 looks like. Not on tape, not in the number trends. I don’t trust that there will be a follow up event to this.
-- The Browns are Nick Chubb (19-144-1, 3-32-0/3) ‘is the offense’ now. In this game, for the first time going back to the 2019 season when the pairing got into high gear, we saw the first shift away from a 50/50-ish Chubb-Hunt rotation.
Instead of a 50-50, where you don’t know who the lead guy is, per se…now it’s starting to become Chubb is the 60/40, 65/35 lead. At least, it’s starting to feel that way this game. One game does not a trend make, but for as well as Chubb has been playing…you have to be concerned if you own Hunt. It may just be a blip, but Chubb is working so much better than Hunt right now (and that wasn’t the obvious case earlier in the season) that the smart move for Cleveland is to ride the best horse right now.
Chubb had more catches in this game than he’d had all season combined prior.
I’ve started taking down Hunt touch counts and raising up Chubb’s in the projections.
-- The top WR for the Jags with D.J. Chark out was not Keelan Cole 3-44-0/6) or Laviska Shenault (3-31-0/4)…it was #4 WR Collin Johnson (4-96-1/8). Glennon aired it out to him several times for a nice connection or attempted downfield connection. If Chark is out this week, Johnson could be a WR3/Flex option this week.
Johnson is 6’6” and is working kinda like Chris Conley or Chark out there…the medium-deep, tall receiver option that presents themselves as a nice look for the QB. Johnson is slower of footspeed, so if he starts drawing top coverage…he’s in some trouble, but he’s a solid WR otherwise.
-- JAX UDFA rookie CB Luc Barcoo (4 tackles, 1 TFL) was one of our highest rated CB prospects for 2020, and with all the Jags’ injuries, he got a full start this game and didn’t play too badly stepping up to a bigger role. He had trouble with Landry some, but had moments halting Landry too.
Barcoo is not a great IDP prospect, per se…more one to watch to see if he impacts the game for opposing WRs.
Snap Counts of Interest:
61 = Cole
59 = Shenault
52 = Collin Johnson
03 = Trey Quinn
41 = Chubb
28 = Hunt
03 = D’E Johnson
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 12 Game Analysis: Giants 19, Bengals 17
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
Whew.
I had rung up 11 straight wins in Survivor pools leading up to Week 12, and I went out on a limb a little bit picking the Giants here – and they got the win, but it wasn’t easy/close.
It started out great…a quick 7-0 lead for NYG on the opening drive and I thought I was home free. Then Cincy returned the ensuing kickoff for a TD, and my spirit dampened a bit…but, still, I should be fine (I thought). 10-10 tie at the half had me nervous. Brandon Allen playing solid football had me nervous.
Colt McCoy coming in for Daniel Jones had me a bit nervous, but Dan Dimes isn’t good…so it wasn’t terrible, but still something to worry about because that’s what we do in fantasy/betting.
The Giants led 16-10 with 4+ minutes left, and Cincy had the ball, and I was getting a bit nervous. But then a fumble by Cincy set up NYG 20+ yards away from taking a two-score lead…and they did. 19-10 NYG with 3+ minutes left. It’s in the bag now!!
Nope.
Cincy went right down and scored, then three-and-outed the Giants and suddenly it was 19-17 NYG with 0:57 left and Cincy sitting at the 50-yard line after a bad punt/good return for the Bengals. I could do the math…a field goal would end my Survivor Pool run in 2020, and they were only 15 or so yards away from being in good range. BUT the Giants got a strip sack fumble and ended the game on the very first offensive play for Cincy…ball game.
Whew.
The Giants, led by their top 5 NFL defense (to my eyes), jump to (4-7) and are now tied with the Football Team for the NFC East lead. The NFC East winner will likely be the team that gets to 6 wins. It won’t be easy for WSH-NYG-PHI to get there given their schedules. If they all get to five wins, then the Giants are winning the division with their tiebreaker advantage. We see NYG finding 6 wins and winning the division…but that’s a very fluid, fragile projection.
Cincy played a very good ball game under their circumstances. They are (2-8-1) on their way to (2-13-1).
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- My main notes from this game, the main thing you need to know…
Both of the bad QBs in this game…they aren’t that ‘bad’.
Brandon Allen (17-29 for 136 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) is a solid QB talent. He was completely unfazed in this start against a borderline great NFL defense. Allen was like Joe Burrow-lite. Kept his cool, took what he was given. Didn’t risk stupid throws but made tough throws when he had to.
The problem for Allen is – a bad O-Line keeps him under pressure, but he handled it well. Allen could work well against a weaker defense…the issue is he has MIA-DAL-PIT the next three weeks, all capable of pressure (except Dallas is erratic).
Colt McCoy (6-10 for 31 yards, 0 TD/0 INT, 5-7-0) wasn’t bad either. My memory from the live watch was that he was a drop off from Dan Jones, but I think that was ‘in spirit’ for a drop-off/the team’s demeanor dropped for a bit. Re-watching it…I think the Giants might be equally fine or better with McCoy. He also looked ‘unfazed’ by the moment, and with a week of full prep…he’ll probably be OK. Not a star, but not a joke either.
Allen or McCoy…they looked better than Carson Wentz did in Week 12.
-- Because Brandon Allen isn’t terrible, it’s possible Tee Higgins (5-44-1/5) and Tyler Boyd (3-15-0/6) won't totally fall off a cliff for FF. Still, it’s WR3 hope now…not WR1-2.
Allen looked like he had a better working relationship with Higgins over Boyd, for what it is worth.
The schedule ahead (Week 13 v. MIA, Week 15 v. PIT) is not good for anyone involved. Week 16 v. HOU might be some FF title game help.
-- I’d also say the Giants’ weapons don’t change much on projections with McCoy v. Dan Dimes. Sterling Shepard (7-64-0/8) will lead the way in catches. Evan Engram (6-129-0/9) will be a random event boom-or-bust. Darius Slayton (0-0-0/2) continues to die because Jones nor McCoy are good with the deep ball. Slayton is NYG’s version of Michael Gallup for Dallas now – potential star talent buried in a role that hurts them for growth/going to the next level.
-- Wayne Gallman (24-94-1, 3-0-0/5) has been a low-key MVP for the Giants. He is running with such heart and shiftiness. He’s brought some juice to the run game that Devonta Freeman or Dion Lewis could not. Honestly, he’s been more consistent than Saquon Barkley…but the defensive focus is different when Saquon is there – so, it’s an apples-oranges comp.
People are all like…waaaahhhh, boo hoo, I wish I had drafted James Robinson to solve all my RB woes.
Since Gallman has become a starter (Week 8), he’s the #9 RB in PPR PPG. Robinson is #6.
In non-PPR, Gallman is #5 in that starter span…Robinson #6.
Don’t ever tell me RB’s matter THE MOST in fantasy again.
The great ones do…just like the great WRs, TEs, and QBs.
There are a thousand and one RB options available up and down NFL rosters. They slide in and out for each other and put up the same numbers when given the chance. Wayne Gallman is a strong RB1 today…no one had that in their FF plans.
-- …like the way Gio Bernard (8-32-0, 2-17-0/3) has been as good/bad as Joe Mixon for FF since taking over. Gio is the clear lead back for Cincy right now. There is no hint of them trying to push younger guys for a look.
I don’t think Joe Mixon will return this season…if you’re Cincy, you’ve already spent the money – why rush him back? Let him take the rest of the season off – which means they’ll rush him back/put him at-risk as soon as they can in a 2-win season.
Trayveon Williams (1-0-0, 1-13-0/1) got into the game when it mattered in the 2nd-half (not garbage time) and saw a nice screen pass set up and made a solid play. He then took the handoff into a crowd for nothing…then gone. No real extra effort to see what they have here.
-- I keep cooing about the Giants defense, because it is terrific, but I’m not sure you can use them the rest of the season now.
Week 13 at SEA
Week 14 v. ARI
Week 15 v. CLE
Week 16 at BAL
Maybe Week 15 v. CLE in the cold could be a winner. Regardless, just know…this is a very good, emerging defense. And GM Dave Gettleman deserves a ton of credit for his work rebuilding it, as does D-C Patrick Graham. If Gettleman could/would go get a real QB…he could rule the NFC East ahead.
He won’t.
Snap Counts of Interest:
38 = Gio
07 = Perine
05 = Trayveon
38 = Sample
13 = Carter
56 = Slayton
51 = Gallman
46 = Tate
17 = Mack
05 = Xavier McKinney return
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 12 Game Analysis: Bills 27, Chargers 17
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
What a weird game. The Bills let the Chargers hang in this game, and the Fighting Anthony Lynn’s would not accept the gift from Buffalo and just lost in a sad way.
The Bills turned the ball over 3 times, 2 of them on fumbles. The Bills had 9 penalties (to 5) called against them. They were pretty well handling the Chargers but kept letting LAC hang around due to the mistakes…but in the end, the Bills just muscled the Chargers to sleep for the 10-point victory.
The Anthony Lynn highlight reel/classic moment of the week, his bad coaching gem – with under a minute remaining, the Chargers down by 10 and facing a 4th & 27…they throw a Hail Mary, it connects down to the 2-yard line. The Chargers had no timeouts left so they raced down the field to run the next play. 1st & goal from the two…no timeouts left…down by 10…the Chargers race to the line of scrimmage and then inexplicably run up the middle, it gets stuffed and the clock burns and chaos/panic ensues. You have to be a special kind of moron to call a running play at that point…but ‘here’s your sign’.
Needing two scores with less than 0:30 remaining after the Hail Mary, the Chargers ran it, threw it away, and ran it again (QB sneak) to no avail…and ball game. At one point in there, the kicking team was coming onto the field for a field goal (to then go onside kick after to play the clock)…but then they came back off the field to run a play that did nothing. The clock just ran out…a 10-point loss for LAC.
Anthony Lynn is still employed. It’s unbelievable.
The Chargers fall to (3-8)…one more loss and my 7.5 ‘under’ win total bet is home free! If Anthony Lynn wins five in-a-row to end the season, I will quit football analysis. I just gave it the ‘kiss of death’.
Anyone have a job for a former failed football analyst in 2021? I’m good with numbers and my weakness is ‘I care too much’ about doing a good job. And, just note…I’m probably going to wear sweats to the interview…it’s all I own/need anymore.
The Bills are (8-3), a BS Hail Mary/Murray away from being (9-2) and thus one of the top teams in the NFL, by record. The Bills should finish with 11-12 wins and an AFC East title, and their clinching game might be at New England on a Monday Night Week 16. The Bills might be a #3 seed, but possibly a #4 seed if the Titans (who beat them earlier this season) get hot to the finish.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Battle of QBs that I have loved this year… Both played well, but both caught bad breaks here and there to keep their FF scoring down.
Josh Allen (18-24 for 157 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 9-32-1) got knocked out of the game for a few plays on a deep drive (a hit to the knee took him out for a few plays), and Matt Barkley came in to flop and they had to settle for a field goal. Could’ve been an Allen TD drive. Buffalo also ran all over LAC (172 yards rushing total), who lost another linebacker in-game…smart thing to do…taking the ball away from Allen through the air more than usual.
Justin Herbert (31-52 for 316 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 2-0-0) lost a couple goal line TD shots to fluky things, which happens from time-to-time. Including him trying to goal line QB sneak to end the game, but he got stuffed – it would have been a meaningless-to-the-game-result play but would’ve been +6 for Herbert. Overall, he looked fine…better than Allen, honestly…and I mean that in that they are both great/elite QBs right now. And both better than Kyler Murray (I’m starting this drum beat up again) as passers.
I was not happy with the heavy screen pass game all to returning Austin Ekeler (14-44-0, 11-85-0/16) but after re-watching this I understand it a bit more now.
Here’s what you need to know on why LAC was a little stimied in their passing game here, and it’s important for FF interpretations/projections ahead…
1) The Buffalo Bills pass defense is getting its groove back.
The Bills’ defense had several injuries early in the season and were getting thrown on by everyone. Week 5, things started turning around…they’ve squashed most opposing offense’s passing games their last 7 games – including holding Herbert down here (a 50+ yard Hail Mary pushed his numbers over 300+ yards), and holding Mahomes to 225 yards (in bad weather) Week 6. Only Russell Wilson rolled yards up against them lately, BUT that’s a game Buffalo got up so big in that Seattle just threw every play to try to make a game of it.
The top pass defense in 2018 and 2019…it’s starting to peek its head back up in 2020 now.
2) Further evidence of this…
Keenan Allen (4-40-1/10) has been a monster since Herbert took over…nigh unstoppable. Except, Tre’Davious White stopped him here. Allen’s 4 catches were all miracle/tight window throws and catches. It was a grind to get 4 for 40 out of Allen.
Mike Williams (3-26-0/5) was taken out of this game as well.
3) Justin Herbert had a 7-game streak with 2 or more TD passes in-a-row, and then just one TD pass here.
The Buffalo Bills defense is back.
At SF Week 13 might be pretty good for the Bills-DST.
Week 15 at Denver is for sure good. As is Week 16 at NE.
4) Thus, the Austin Ekeler 16 target event…it was actually a smart move by Anthony Lynn. Wait, what did I just type.
Well, he still lost. So…
-- Ekeler is back, so Kalen Ballage (DNP) is probably dead for fantasy upon his return, but you almost have to hold and see what his role will be…or if Ekeler gets hurt again.
I have a feeling Ballage’s owners will be dropping him after Week 13, but we’ll see…
-- Gabriel Davis (3-79-1/4) had a solid FF week with John Brown out…but just 4 targets and his TD catch was off a Cole Beasley TD pass/trick play. Not a sign of an uprising.
-- Devin Singletary (11-82-0, 3-20-0/3) really looked good here, but his problem is not talent…it’s touches. He’s splitting with Moss, and then Josh Allen takes rushing TDs.
In 2019 and 2020 to date, rushing TDs comparison:
15 = Josh Allen
03 = Singletary
-- Two IDPs to point out…
1) BUF LB A.J. Klein (14 tackles, 3 TFLs, 1.5 sacks,1 PD) is smoking hot right now. Klein is averaging 10.0 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 0.67 PDs, 2.3 QB hits per game the past three games.
Since Week 9, he is the #1 IDP LB in FF on a PPG basis…and it’s not even close (Darius Leonard #2).
2) LAC LB Nick Vigil (8 tackles, 1 PD, 1 FF) got to play more when Denzel Perryman got hurt. If Vigil is going to start for a week or two ahead…he’s a really talented player. He could get 6+ tackles a game the next few weeks.
Snap Counts of Interest:
37 = Moss
25 = Singletary
60 = Ekeler
19 = J Kelley
06 = Pope
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 12 Game Analysis: 49ers 23, Rams 20
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
Well, that didn’t go the way I expected.
I thought the Rams had finally found themselves vs. Tampa Bay, and were going to show a wounded 49ers team who was the NFC West boss.
Nope.
There’s a simple rule I should follow here… Kyle Shanahan > Sean McVay.
This game was a battle of two top defenses…only one offensive TD was scored by each team. They also each scored a defensive TD. There were 3 INTs and no passing TDs between the two teams and 4 lost fumbles. It wasn’t a sloppy game – it was a battle between two really good defensive performances. The Rams, I expected. The 49ers D shocked me.
San Fran led this game 17-3 late 3rd-quarter. The Rams chipped it to 17-6 with a field goal, and on the ensuing drive for SF…a Raheem Mostert fumble, scoop-and-score TD for LAR…and suddenly it was 17-13 SF. The Rams then halted the 49ers on their next drive, got the ball back, had a 61-yard Cam Akers run setting up a short TD moments later – within 5 minutes the Rams went from down 17-3 to leading 20-17. I thought it was over for the 49ers at that point.
I was wrong.
The 49ers rallied for two field goals on their final two drives, shutting down the Rams in the process, and hitting the game winner with 0:00 remaining. The 49ers’ season was saved from the brink. The Rams now have more questions than answers suddenly.
The 49ers got two ‘wins’…the game win to go to (5-6) and then the Cardinals botched their game to fall to (6-5) as the #6 wild card leader…so the 49ers are in playoff range – as they pull into a tie for the #7 seed with MIN and CHI, and now just a game behind #6 Arizona. The 49ers are right back in it…and if they stay healthy, make the playoffs, and get Jimmy G. and Kittle back for the playoffs – the 49ers could make a Super Bowl run again. It sounds crazy to even type that.
Because (8-8) might be the #7 seed in the NFC…the 49ers can get there, but they probably need to get to 9 wins to be sure of a spot. They are more projecting (8-8). If the 49ers get in #7 seed, they could face any number of rivals 1st-round of the playoffs: NO, GB, SEA. Teams they are familiar with and have beaten in times of need recently.
I was ready to see the Rams make a run at the NFC West title after handling Seattle and Tampa Bay the last two games prior, but this loss was a killer. Likely ends the long shot NFC West hope (Seattle has such an easy schedule ahead). They are now looking at trying to get good wild card position – being the #1 wild card draws the NFC East winner, so it’s like a BYE week for the #1 wild card. We see the Rams getting 10 wins, being the #1 wild card…and thus they will advance in the playoffs to face the #1 seed, whomever that might be. If they lose to Arizona next week, then there’s even more chaos to this Rams season. Huge game for both teams LAR at ARI Week 13.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- First things first… This was one of the best individual performances I’ve seen from a WR this season, or any season. The show Deebo Samuel (11-133-0/13) put on was unreal. This was a huge performance against the #1 pass defense in the NFL in certain metrics.
So, how did Deebo have such a good game facing this defense, matched up with Jalen Ramsey, and working with Nick Mullens?
1) Deebo’s whole game, just about, is now behind the line of scrimmage…screens, pitch pass with him coming across in motion, etc. Jalen Ramsey type cover corners cannot deploy their talents against him.
2) Deebo is becoming A.J. Brown, only better…the guy who is untackleable after the catch. Only Deebo is a very good receiver, and AJB is technically flawed as a WR -- but a monster physically.
3) Kyle Shanahan has made Deebo the center of his offense. Deebo might as well be a running back now. Only instead of handoffs, it’s screens, pitch passes, and jet sweeps…and some straight up handoffs from time to time.
You saw Tyreek Hill Sunday?
You saw D.K. Metcalf Monday?
You see Rodgers-to-Davante every week?
No wide receiver in the NFL has a better plan to get him the ball now than Deebo Samuel by Kyle Shanahan. Deebo is essentially matchup proof now. He’s about to become a mega-star for (PPR) fantasy…I believe.
-- The real star of this game was the 49ers defense. That Rams offense that squashed the Bucs on Monday Night Football…the 49ers squashed them back. How did this happen?
The ‘how’ is what makes them a hot pick up for a DST for Weeks 14-15 (WSH, at DAL).
1) Richard Sherman (7 tackles, 1 INT) returned…and that changes a lot from his play to the morale boost of their leader back on the field.
2) Jason Verrett (5 tackles) looks reborn. The CB combo of Sherman-Verrett is low key one of the best CB-duos in the game now. I can’t even believe I typed that. Good for them. I thought injury ruined Verrett’s career, but he’s clawed his way back.
3) DT Kerry Hyder (4 tackles, 20 sacks, 4 QB hits) has 7.5 sacks this season…a journeyman DT. He finally got a shot. We were pointing him out earlier this season, and he’s never let up.
4) They dumped Kwon Alexander…and there must have been a good reason why they gave him away to NO.
I won’t play them v. BUF Week 13, but I would go for it Weeks 14-15. Since they’ve had a down season, they can be on many a waiver wire. Wild card FF teams starting the playoffs Week 14…take note if you need it.
-- Cam Akers (9-84-1) had a 61-yard run helping the comeback efforts…so, now everyone is excited. But note…
1) 8 carries for 23 yards aside from that 2.9 yards per carry otherwise.
2) played the least amount of snaps among all the Rams-trio RBs in this game, which has been the norm.
-- Raheem Mostert (16-43-1, 2-0-0/2) looked good in this return game for him…it’s just the Rams defense is arguably the best in the game right now.
Jeff Wilson (12-43-0) came off IR and got 12 carries…which made me think: (a) Shanahan is always going to split carries with two RBs, regardless of who they are, and (b) Jerick McKinnon (3-21-0, 2-11-0/3) is going to be the #4 RB when Tevin Coleman returns.
-- Jared Goff (19-31 for 198 yards, 0 TDs/2 INTs) went from god to goat in the span of a week. Crushing TB last game, getting crushed by SF here.
This is two games in recent weeks where Goff got smoked…vs. SF here, and that Miami game a few weeks ago. It may be that the secondaries of these two teams, their defenses overall…any strong/bad matchup for Goff is major trouble, but he’s fine otherwise – which means the Bucs secretly suck on defense, and we’re all seeing that the last few weeks (when they were terrific the first 6-7 weeks of the season).
Which means…Week 13 is neutral for Goff vs. ARI, but Week 14 v. NE could be the next problem game.
-- All this talk of the 49ers defense, but the Rams defense is better…I think they’re the best in football right now.
They crushed TB last week. Held down Russ two weeks prior. Held SF to 3.5 yards per carry, 0 TD passes, and got three turnovers this game…plus a defensive TD.
The loss is blamed on Goff’s/the offense’s turnovers, not this defense.
Troy Reeder (15 tackles, 1 TFL) started for the injured Micah Kizer...and looks better than Kizer. Reeder has started two games for Kizer this year...and has 11 and 15 tackles in those games with 3 TFLs and 3.0 sacks combined. He gets two more starts ahead, at least, with Kizer on IR.
-- I’ve been promoting Matt Gay (2/2 FG, 2/2 XP) as a sneaky PK play based on his top results last season, his booming leg, and the fact that he’s kicking indoors until Week 16. He’s averaging 10.0 PPG (FPros system) in his first two appearances with the Rams.
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Snap Counts of Interest:
25 = Brown
20 = D Henderson
17 = Akers
63 = Deebo
63 = James
41 = Bourne
44 = Dwelley
31 = Jo Reed
29 = Mostert
25 = J Wilson
18 = McKinnon
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 12 Game Analysis: Seahawks 23, Eagles 17
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
I feel like there is at least one game every week I say this on, but we’re here…so, let’s do this: That was maybe the worst football game I’ve ever watched. At a minimum, that was the worst offensive display I’ve seen in a long, long time…at least the worst display since Denver played on Sunday.
You saw it, and if you didn’t…don’t bother to watch. Here’s the summary: Carson Wentz has the yips…he can’t complete the most basic of passes anymore (until the game is out of hand and he’s dumping off passes vs. prevent)…it was sad to watch him spiral on national TV (again). Seattle just moved out of the way and let Wentz fall on his face, while they just threw every pass to D.K. Metcalf and no one on Philly tried to help stop it. It was 23-17 final, but that’s with a garbage time special/TD with 0:12 left. It was really much, much worse than the score showed.
Seattle cruises to (8-3) in a week that saw both the Rams and Cardinals lose. The NFC West is going to Seattle, and possibly the #1 seed with it. Seattle’s defense is rising, and they have Russell Wilson…so they’re as good as any team in the NFC now. Add to that the easy schedule ahead and we should see a (12-4) Seattle walkaway with the NFC West and have a shot to get past New Orleans for the #1 seed.
Philadelphia in this game, this season…just…wow.
We all make fun of ‘someone has to win the NFC (L)East’…but what does it say if you finish in last place in that division? The Eagles are actually still in this…if they can get a surprise win over at GB or v. NO, they can get to 5-6 wins and 6 wins gets them the title but 5 wins might since NYG is going to Colt McCoy and the Washington schedule ahead is not great either.
What has happened to Philly?
1) Carson Wentz seriously has the yips…like a baseball player with mental performance issues. He’s so in his head about throwing the ball that he’s frozen/late on passes with indecision and double-pumping and tap-tap-tapping the ball way too much before a throw…it’s sad to watch. I’ve never been a fan, but he’s better than this…he’s just in a funk.
2) Doug Pederson should’ve benched him at the half, because letting Wentz try and ‘play through it’ is only making it worse. But Pederson will never bench Wentz, so people should stop asking about it.
I think Pederson is playing out an internal war and is trying to get fired -- all at the same time. He obviously hates the GM, who likely took Jalen Hurts without Pederson’s approval/desire…so, Pederson isn’t going to give GM Howie Roseman the satisfaction. Between the GM and owner (and the owner is 99% of the time lunch BFF’s with the GM), they’ve likely turned on Pederson…so now Pederson is a dead man walking at his job. The GM HAS to blame this on the coach with the owner, or the blame goes to the GM.
Pederson wants to leave, and they want him gone. Pederson wants to be fired, so he can get out…because he’ll be hired somewhere else quickly. So, Pederson is not going to make ownership/management desired changes because he (a) doesn’t want to, and (b) if he’s fired…it’s what he wants. Good for his psyche and bank account. He’ll get paid in full upon firing, as he signs a big deal to coach wherever next…he’ll double dip and escape Philly all at the same time. Plus, the Eagles CAP situation for 2021 is so awful that Pederson doesn’t want to be here to swirl down the drain with it for another year.
There is no change coming at QB unless Pederson is fired in-season, which wouldn’t shock me if it happens due to public pressure…but I think the Eagles’ ownership/management wants Pederson to stay for the rest of the season.
Why?
Honestly, the Eagles are going nowhere even if they win the NFC East…so, management might as well let Pederson and Wentz run into a brick wall, don’t win the NFC East, and the HC and QB get blamed for all this. The Eagles are probably the worst planned/salary cap team going into 2021…they have a giant mess to deal with ahead, so winning the NFC East at 6-9-1 or 5-8-1, losing in the playoffs…it does nothing for them now or later. They can’t have some reason NOT to fire Pederson pop up (like ‘winning the division, or then maybe somehow winning a playoff game)…so, firing him now would make some sense. But also, their best chance to lose (which is better for the big picture) is to keep letting Pederson and Wentz hang themselves on national TV weekly – so Pederson will likely not be fired because he’s a useful tool/patsy in more losses for better draft pick position.
Management can then fire everyone after the season ends, find a new coach, hope springs eternal and the fans follow the team, as they do, and buy season tickets regardless.
All I know is – fire up your opposing DST against this Eagles squad right now until Wentz finds himself again…if he even can.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- I’m 90%+ certain Carson Wentz (25-45 for 215 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT, 5-42-0) will remain as the starter for Doug Pederson the rest of the season. If there was the slightest of chance that Pederson sensed Wentz was dying and that a move to Jalen Hurts (1-1 for 6 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) would have been the right things to do…he would have played Hurts more than 2 snaps in this game (and played him more for last few weeks).
The fact that rumors/words leaked that Hurts would get more snaps/opportunities this week…and then he got literally one real play and then out all the game – it’s a message sent by Pederson.
As long as Wentz is in the WRs are dead for fantasy, until Wentz gets over his yips…so Reagor-Fulgham have no real value in redraft now.
I’d love to be in FF-ahead on Hurts for a run as a great mobile QB opportunity, but unless Wentz gets hurt or Pederson is fired…it’s not happening in 2020 (until the season is officially ‘over’ for Philly, which it may not be until Week 17…if even then).
-- There was one thing working with Wentz…Dallas Goedert (7-75-1/10). And it’s been growing for a few weeks now.
I’m back to ‘all the way the hell in’ on Dallas Goedert as the next great NFL and fantasy TE…with one pause… I don’t know what affects Jalen Hurts’ offense, which is going to be like Lamar Jackson’s or more so Taysom Hill’s, will be on the tight end.
All I know is…Goedert looks the best I’ve seen him in a while. He’s over his injury, and his movements are smooth like an elite TE. You will see him rise in redraft rankings and skyrocket on our Dynasty stash rankings.
If you want to acquire Goedert in Dynasty, for the future, best to let Wentz deal him a 3-33-0/6 game next week, or whatever week it happens and then shoot in after him. Hard to make a deal off a stat line like this game, but people may want off anything Philly…so, maybe a deal can be had reasonably. But the better opportunity might be in a week or so (if trading is still open).
Goedert is the better-than-Gronk ‘next Gronk’…but without a prime Tom Brady to work with, so we have to be cautiously optimistic. He’s just been so buried in Philly for years (again, another reason Pederson needs to go) we all kinda forgot about him because he isn’t touching the ball on the regular. Now, he is.
…as soon as Zach Ertz returns, Pederson/Wentz will lean that way and…that’s maybe your window to buy lower.
-- Not much to say about the Seattle offense in this game. Russell Wilson completed 22 passes for 230 yards and 77% of the yards and nearly 50% of the completions went to D.K. Metcalf (10-177-0/13).
The lesson learned here is: no one besides DKM matters in the passing game (as it should be).
My actual Seattle offensive notes…
1) I’ve been talking about Russ ‘not cooking’ for weeks, but now others are starting to realize it…
The first few weeks of 2020 season, Wilson was #1-2-3 in FF-output. Then he started to glide to #5 range midseason…and since Week 8, he’s the #8 QB in fantasy PPG…with Kirk Cousins about to pass him (in that stretch). Russ is a QB1, but not a top five QB1 in this new run game + defense Seattle approach.
2) I’ve been trying to sound an alert that Tyler Lockett’s (3-23-0/4) decline the past several weeks was a ‘canary in the coal mine’ warning that Russ was slipping (for FF). Basically, Lockett is a WR4 unless facing Arizona…and they have no more games scheduled with the Cardinals.
3) The tight ends don’t matter in the passing game…
My ‘watch out for Will Dissly’ (0-0-0/0) alerts ended up a zero. When I’m wrong on this type of thing, it’s usually because it’s a week early. So, we’ll all drop him…and he’ll be 3-40-1 next week and we’ll all be piling back in. Hard to trust him after this first non-Olsen result has been dealt. And the passing game is declining in general.
Jacob Hollister (2-11-0/5) played less snaps but got all the meager pass targets.
Colby Parkinson (0-0-0/0) didn’t see any work but did play 11 snaps. He could be the star of the group…in the future…not now.
-- Chris Carson (8-41-1, 2-18-0/2) got back to work and was solid, looked fine. Seattle kept him fresh with a Carson-Hyde mix -- and Seattle was controlling this game, so why push Carson heavy? The schedule ahead may allow Carson to split/stay fresh for the upcoming playoff run.
-- Boston Scott (2-7-0, 5-40-0/60 had some numbers here, but all the passing game stuff was final drive pure, unadulterated garbage time/meaningless stuff. There is no worry about Miles Sanders (6-15-0, 2-7-0/3) being cut into for touches. Seattle’s run defense is good, Philly’s O-Line and QB are not, and everything got shut down.
-- Jumping on Seattle-DST several weeks ago was a call by us that seemed like lunatic rantings…but now you’re grateful you chased it…or pissed you didn’t.
The defense is getting better each week. The Carlos Dunlap (2 tackles, 0.5 sacks) addition is an obvious boost. Rookie Jordyn Brooks (5 tackles, 1 PD) is starting to get more integrated also helps. But the big thing was getting starting CB Shaquill Griffin (4 tackle, 1 PD) back this game. When they get CB Quinton Dunbar back, then it gets even better.
Again, the schedule is really the thing driving this as much as anything.
Facing Colt McCoy, Sam Darnold, Alex Smith the next 3 weeks…your faith in grabbing Seattle several weeks ago, to get ahead on it, per my alerts – it may be the little thing that gets you over the top this season.
-- Everyone is going to get down on the Eagles everything, but we have to note…they played a helluva game here. They were flying to the ball. They fought hard all game and really held Seattle in check…except Darius Slay could not handle D.K. Metcalf. The offense is not helping the defense either.
If the Eagles win one of their next two, and breathe some life into themselves…Week 16 at Dallas might be a spot they might be useful in.
Snap Counts of Interest:
43 = Sanders
26 = B Scott
71 = Goedert
22 = R Rodgers
05 = C Wilson
48 = Dissly
37 = Hollister
11 = Parkinson
41 = Hyde
25 = Carson
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 12 Game Analysis: Falcons 43, Raiders 6
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
Wow. Just wow.
Why I even bother to try to figure out what team will win/cover what game each week is a colossal waste of my time.
Coming into this game, Las Vegas was the team almost sweeping the Chiefs and playing good football overall. The Falcons played a game like this (on the losing end) just last week…falling out of the playoff picture (for the most part) and rolling over on their interim coach (because they got their original coach fired) in a bad loss to the Saints.
So, of course the bad team with nothing to play for beats the really good team with a lot to play by 37 points.
This game was just 6-3 Atlanta with 4+ minutes before halftime. Atlanta lined up for and missed an easy field goal, but a Raiders’ defender rolling out of control ended up hitting the kicker well after the kick…penalty called…1st-down…soon after a TD. From the moment the Raiders had stopped the Falcons via missed field goal with 4+ minutes ‘til halftime, but then the penalty was called – Atlanta then went on a 37-3 run from there for a blowout win.
For Las Vegas (6-5) it is a crushing blow to their season/playoff hopes. This was a gimme win…and they lost…in extreme fashion. They should’ve won and had a path to 10 wins and a for-sure wild card berth…now, they will have to scramble to get to (9-7) and hope they own a tiebreaker among the 9-win cluster to get in. Week 14 vs. Indy might be the season for both of those teams…the loser being out of the playoffs in the end.
Atlanta gets to (4-7) and kinda creeps back into the playoff picture on a long shot basis. Two games behind Arizona. But their schedule ahead will crush them, and they’ll finish with 4-5 wins.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The biggest player news from this game is the leg injury to Josh Jacobs (7-27-0). My early guess is he misses Week 13. If it were the playoffs, maybe he tries to get back but he got hurt pretty good…and Week 13 is at the Jets – they don’t need him to reaggravate/push himself…just use the time as like a bye week.
If Jacobs is out, then Devontae Booker (5-6-0, 1-0-0/4) is going to be an RB1 threat for Week 13 vs. NYJ. Booker has been great in relief of Jacobs in spots/spurts all season. It’s not a guaranteed home run, but Booker has been solid+ all season and the Jets are a nice matchup.
It doesn’t appear Jacobs will be out longer than a week, but we’ll see what the word is Wed-Fri this week on that front. My guess is one week, for now.
-- Booker elicits the same cautious FF-optimism…like when we all found out Todd Gurley was out, and Brian Hill (13-55-0, 0-0-0/1) was drawing the start. I thought Hill was a nice pickup for a possible shot at an RB1 last week, as we all did.
The RB who did become an RB1 here was not Hill, but Ito Smith (12-65-1, 4-10-0/5)…outta nowhere. Hill started and was the obvious lead, but Ito sprinkled in early as a 3rd-down back of sorts. When it was a game for the 1st-half, everything was bottled up for either RB. When it got out of hand, Ito was running well and they just kept rolling with the little used back through the blowout and a good FF-game resulted for Smith.
Is it Hill or Ito next week?
I’m guessing a split/hot hand approach, where I still like Hill…Atlanta has favored Hill over Ito all season with both head coaches, so no reason to think good Ito numbers in a blowout changes that – BUT it’s on the table/a worry for Hill now after seeing this result.
-- After his Week 11 ‘zero’, Hayden Hurst (4-48-0/8) bounced back with a solid game. Good target counts, but man…watching Matt Ryan (22-39 for 185 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT) throw to him is painful.
Hurst has probably lost out on at least 10 catches and 2-3 TDs this season to date from Ryan misfiring to the wide open TE.
All you can do is keep rolling with Hurst…unless you got Kelce-Waller.
Hurst played less than 50% of the snaps here…but he was questionable all week (ankle), and this was a blowout, so he got pulled out for his own good it appears.
-- The state of the Raiders’ WR Union:
Nelson Agholor (5-54-0/6) is still the #1 WR look for Carr, and sometimes he gets a TD with his 3-5 catches for 30-60 yards in a game, and sometimes he doesn’t. He didn’t here.
Hunter Renfrow (7-73-0/9) had a nice FF game here (PPR), but these types of games are too few and far between – Renfrow is a Pro Bowl slot WR talent waiting to happen but Derek Carr isn’t going to make that happen.
Henry Ruggs (3-56-0/5) is flashing moments, but everyone outside of Agholor at WR is usually a bystander getting 1-3 targets a game to work with. I’m not seeing any uptick with Ruggs on the field.
Bryan Edwards (1-15-0/2)…I can see some of the athletic ‘it’ in his limited work/targets. I know why he was a Week 1 starter out of nowhere, and why people thought he was the best WR in camp – he has the goods. He’ll not get to display them in 2020, sadly. 2021 is a big question mark too, but there’s hope for 2021…hope that Edwards is too good to keep bottled up.
-- This was a game/matchup where Derek Carr (22-34 for 215 yards, 0 TD/1 INT) needed to put the hammer down and wreck the Falcons and have us all saying ‘Carr is not so bad, you could win a Super Bowl with him’. Instead, Carr crapped the bed with 3 sacks (against a team that doesn’t rush the passer well), 3 lost fumbles, and a pick.
This may have been the game the Raiders start to wonder if Carr really is their future. You cannot flop like this in a must-win game over an inferior pass defense.
-- Weeks 8-10, the Raiders defense held the Browns to 6 points, beat the Chargers holding them to a respectable (in 2020) 26 points, and then beating Denver holding them to 12 points. You forgive them for allowing 30+ to KC Week 11.
With all that, I thought Week 12 at ATL might not be bad for the Raiders-DST…instead, it was a nightmare. A good chunk of it was on Carr losing 3 fumbles. The Falcons only had 304 total yards…185 yards passing and just 3.9 yards per carry with their 125 yards rushing. It wasn’t an Atlanta offensive explosion, just a Las Vegas comedy of errors.
This kinda-sorta wasn’t what it looked like for the Raiders-DST. I have some faith in them against the Jets Week 13…although it got reduced a bit seeing this. In reality, it wasn’t as bloody for the defense as it looked/appeared.
*Regular Tuesday Video Q&A moved to Wednesday, at the normal time (8:00pm-9:30pmET)
Snap Counts of Interest:
39 = Br Hill
28 = Ito Smith
37 = Hurst
34 = Stocker
25 = Graham
38 = J Jacobs
22 = Booker
42 = Ruggs
42 = Agholor
41 = Renfrow
19 = Br Edwards
