Ross Jacobs

FFM

18 September 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 1: Rams 34, Bears 14 (By Ross Jacobs)

I'm not going to bore anyone with the details of this game. The Bears suck, the Rams don't. That's a pretty good summation. Credit the Bears a little, they tried to keep it close for a while, but every time they would blow a coverage and the Rams were able to hit a bomb pass down the field for an easy TD. The Rams appear to be a top 10-12 team, but I don't think they are much better than that, a fringe playoff squad. They're probably trailing the Seahawks and Cardinals in their own division. The Bears are awful but at least they aren't as bad as the Lions. That's about all they've got going for them. They'll be picking in the top 5 or 10 again next year.

--Fantasy Notes

The most obvious fantasy note from this game is about a player that barely even played here, Justin Fields (2-2 for 10 yards, 1-3-1). The cries for Fields are growing louder by the day. I'm still completely baffled why Fields, of all the rookie QB's, is the guy that apparently everyone has decided is amazing and needs to be playing immediately. I guess he's better than Andy Dalton (27-38 for 206, 0 TD/1 INT) at this point, but he's not a Patrick Mahomes-esque savior. The media sure seems to think so, and they and the fans are trying to pressure the Bears into starting him. It's just a matter of time now. I'm guessing Nagy tries to get through the Cleveland game with Dalton before putting Fields in against the Lions, but if it gets bad enough against the Bengals he might be forced to make the switch. Once Fields gets in you can expect ups and downs. He's not an advanced passer, but his legs make him valuable for fantasy, particularly in 4-point passing TD leagues. He'll likely be a nice QB2 and a good bye-week fill in.

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Apparently, this game was the final word on David Montgomery (16-108-1, 1-10-0/1). All I've seen all week are his early supporters crowing about being right that he was amazing all along, and his early detractors admitting that they were wrong and he's awesome. I'm still skeptical. I will admit that he looks much, much better than he did as a rookie and most of his second year. Instead of being a complete slug he looks like he actually has a little burst through the hole now. But I think we might be going overboard saying he's elite.

One of his early carries went for 41 yards and it looked like a little bit of a fluke. Montgomery hit a wide open hole and the safety crashed down on a bad angle. Montgomery was able to easily side step him and was off to the races. It wasn't anything that Montgomery himself did, many RB's could have made the same play. Take away that one run and he went 15-67 the rest of the way for 4.5 ypc, good but not amazing. We also see his 100 yards and TD against the mighty Rams defense and assume it's some amazing feat, but the reality is the Rams weren't that great of a run defense last year and aren't this year either. They gave up over 100 yards rushing 8 times last year with 3 more games over 90. I'm not saying to run off and sell Montgomery, but I am saying to be cautious and don't assume he's going to rush for 100 yards and a TD every game now. Once Fields is starting we can expect a slight uptick in Montgomery's efficiency, but it's going to come at the loss of a few short TD's as well.

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Well it's official, Darrell Henderson (16-70-1, 1-17-1) was the obvious lead back all along and how silly it was to think Sony Michel (1-2-0) would take over. Right? Wrong. I think you try to trade Henderson right now while everyone assumes he's going to be the lead guy all year. This isn't a great offensive line and Henderson was struggling to find any room to run until late in the 4th quarter when the game was over. He's got one more decent matchup against the Colts this week and after that the schedule gets brutal for a month. Beating up the Bears a little for 1Q is fine and all, but the Bucs, Cardinals, Seahawks, and Giants are coming up in the next month before the schedule eases up for a few weeks.

Here's what McVay had to say after the game:

“I would say, I have confidence in Sony but the way that Darrell was running, kind of the flow of the game like we talked about. Darrell has definitely established himself as our starting back. I thought he did a great job. I thought he got stronger as the game went, but Sony's a guy that's had production in this league. It was just a weird deal the way that the game kind of unfolded.”

Doesn't sound like a ringing endorsement to me.

Here's what's going to happen. Henderson is going to still be the lead for the next few weeks, but what happens when he gets bottled up against several really good run defenses? The Rams o-line isn't that good, but guess who Sean McVay is going to blame...Henderson. He's happy with Henderson for running well in the 4th against the Bears, but that good fortune goes away against better teams. It's going to confirm his secret feelings, that Henderson isn't very good and he's going to switch to Michel full-time right around the time that the schedule turns to the Lions and Texans which will only further confirm what he thinks when Michel has a field day against a bunch of shitty defenses. I don't care that McVay praised Henderson after this game. He's shown time and time again that he doesn't really like Henderson and doesn't want him to be the lead. Everything is fine for the moment, but the second Henderson struggles McVay will ditch him like he always does. McVay said Henderson was their RB1, but he didn't say for how long. This switch is going to happen, and it's going to happen sooner than everyone thinks.

I would trade Henderson hot right now or you might get cute and let him play against the Colts to build up the hype, but everyone knows the Bucs have a killer run defense and they aren't going to want to trade for Henderson with the Bucs up the next week. Nobody likes Henderson that much. Count your blessings if you held this long and get something in return for him. He won't be worth anything in a few weeks.

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RC warned you about this start for Allen Robinson (6-35-0/11). Jalen Ramsey is a no-fly zone. It gets a bit easier from here, but Robinson has Awuzie this week and he's no joke, then Denzel Ward the week after (he got torched by Mahomes and Hill but that's no crime), followed by the lowly Lions and Raiders (two good matchups), and finally Jaire Alexander and Carlton Davis. After that it's more of the same, a couple nice spots mixed in with some terrible spots. And don't forget Fields isn't likely to fix this particular problem. He's not that good a passer no matter how strong his arm is. It's going to be a bumpy ride for Robinson.

With all the attention on Robinson, there might be some room for Darnell Mooney (5-26-0/7) to shine at times. He's going nowhere with Dalton, but Fields could be more interesting because he will break the pocket and give Mooney time to improvise against lesser coverage. Again, it's going to be up and down. Not sure you can use him with any confidence just yet.

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The only other Bear I'm going to mention is Cole Kmet (5-42-0/7). He's so slow it's not even funny. He'll catch a few TD's to make him viable at times because he's so big, but don't expect any yards with this guy. He's strictly a turn-around-at-8-yards pitch and catch guy, nothing more.

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We know who Stafford's go-to receiver is: Cooper Kupp (7-108-1/10). He looks like a WR1 this year easily. Note that he was tackled a foot short of a second TD which would really have set off waves.

Kupp may be the top target for Stafford, but I don't expect Robert Woods (3-27-1/4) to completely fade away. Some of the targeting difference here was just gameflow. He's playing as well as ever. Woods will get his WR1.5 numbers in time.

There were two pleasant surprises with the Rams offense here. One was Van Jefferson (2-80-1/3) playing such a large role. He's the new Josh Reynolds, not a high volume guy but will splash with a big play from time to time. His TD catch went almost exactly like the long Deebo and Tyreek plays, fell down catching the ball and nobody touched him so he got up and walked in. Jefferson is the deep threat here and Stafford has the arm to get it to him so we will see more of these long throws than in the past.

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The other surprise was how involved Tyler Higbee (5-68-0/6) was and how great he looked. He played very smooth, like a jumbo WR, and was catching passes with ease. This is easily the best I've seen him and if he gets even half of the volume he got at the end of 2019 he's going to be an easy TE1 this year, possibly pushing into the top 5. I think he might do exactly that so now's the time to try and pull a sneaky deal for him as part of another trade.

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One guy that was not involved even remotely was rookie Tutu Atwell. Normally, I wouldn't even remark on a guy that only got 2 snaps and no targets, but I feel the need to make fun of this situation again. The whole argument for drafting Atwell in the first place was “he's fast” with the implication that he would open up the Rams offense for Stafford deep throws, but it seems that they are plenty able to do just that with Jefferson and DeSean Jackson and even Kupp, so why in the world would you waste a 3rd round pick on a guy that's 150 lbs soaking wet? That pick could have been used on an offensive lineman, but instead the Rams thought it would be a good idea to light it on fire. Great job.

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--IDP Notes

Justin Hollins (8 tackles, 2 sacks) had a nice stat line here, but this isn't a breakout happening. Hollins is a big-bodied, nicely built LB and moves around well enough, but he's just a role player. His sacks were the result of Aaron Donald being an absolute wrecking ball and Dalton trying to escape, nothing Hollins did. He's fine but not a secret IDP sleeper waiting to happen.

Kenny Young (10 tackles, 1 pd) also had a good game in the box score. He looks like a pretty good coverage linebacker, fast and rangy, but I didn't see him making any real impactful plays. He's always around the ball though, thus the high number of assisted tackles (5).

Young and the two safeties, Jordan Fuller (11 tackles) and Taylor Rapp (10 tackles) all had high counts because the Bears threw literally every single pass 10 yards or shorter. Don't expect them to do that every week.

--Snap Counts of Interest

69 = Darnell Mooney

63 = Allen Robinson

36 = Damiere Byrd

51 = Cole Kmet

14 = Jimmy Graham

41 = David Montgomery

30 = Damien Williams

49 = Cooper Kupp

40 = Robert Woods

36 = Van Jefferson

52 = Tyler Higbee

49 = Darrell Henderson

3 = Sony Michel

R.C. Fischer

FFM

18 September 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 1: Panthers 19, Jets 14

Jets fans…just be a little more patient. Your time in the sun is coming. The Jets played about as well as they could in this game – they’ve just got O-Line issues (again) and are too young/beat up on defense right now.

But look at the Brightside:  Zach Wilson is a force…a future elite 9and pretty damn salty now)…and that defense was on fire (energy wise) but lacks in the talented department. I walked away very impressed with the Jets and the job Robert Saleh did to have them motivated despite their shortcomings. Hope is on the horizon. So much so, that I think I’ll take the Jets and the points this week. The Computer trend was towards the Pats, but Zach Wilson is so good…despite all the limitations around him and with his young defense is so amped. I’ll roll the dice with points for the home dog.

With the Jets being feisty, this has to be classified as a ‘good win’ for Carolina…led by their top 10 defense and a safe offense. Carolina has a really good team. How good? If they had Zach Wilson and the Jets kicker Matt Ammendola, I’d say they’d be a playoff team and push the Bucs for the NFC South. The Panthers lack QB and kicker, and that means they’ll be flirting with .500/tough out all season…but not taking it to the next level. It’s a shame.

Credit to Carolina for holding off a ‘game’ Jets team.

Credit to the Jets for pushing a better Carolina team to the limit.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Let me just say, I’ve watched all the rookie QB debuts for 2021 and their preseason work…not a one of them is anywhere near on par with how talented Zach Wilson (20-37 for 258 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT) is. Only Justin Herbert had a more impressive rookie debut game than Wilson the past two years of rookie QBs.

Wilson has no run game, a corrupt O-Line and was scrambling for his life, and terrible WRs (in this game minus Cole-Crowder plus Corey Davis is an awful #1) and terrible TEs – but Wilson never gave in and just avoided the pressure as best he could and fired bullets all over the place.

The only generational rookie QB in the discussion from the 2021 class is Zach Wilson. He’s so far superior to Trevor Lawrence it isn’t even a debate, and yet 100 out of 100 highly paid football analysts would not agree. I like ‘dem odds. It’s how I know I’m right…and have been since January.

The Jets run game is so bad, that Wilson might start creeping into the QB1 discussion before you know it – he may have to throw 40-50+ times a game, and he can run/move so well, and if he gets his better WRs back…he may just shock with racking numbers in defeats.

Jets fans should be so excited they didn’t get suckered into Justin Fields and that failing Urban Meyer signed his death certificate taking Trevor in front of them, leaving Zach there.

 -- As I mentioned, the Jets have no run game…at all.

The Ty Johnson (4-15-0, 1-11-0/3) FF ‘let’s see’ experiment ended at one week. Nowhere to run and not the preferred back. He didn’t look that great on tape this game anyway. We can all move on.

Michael Carter (4-6-0, 1-14-0/2) isn’t close to ready to be that crafty 3rd-down back yet. There’s no way he’ll ever be the lead back here. People who think that are delusional.

Tevin Coleman (9-24-0) is their best back, but again…nowhere to run, and not that great.

The best runner on the team is Zach Wilson.

 -- Who does Wilson throw to? Corey Davis (5-97-0/2) for now. It’s his comfortable throw with Cole-Crowder out…but they are both back this week and might change the game up some.

Elijah Moore (1-0-0/4) is the great NY media fraud of 2021. He’s not ready for this at the moment. Amari Rodgers looks more ready than Elijah Moore right now…and Rondale Moore is light years ahead of Elijah.

Watch out that Keelan Cole doesn’t become Zach’s #1…or at least FF-viable. But I’m not sure they’ll even start Cole upon his return.

 -- Jets management had to be laughing themselves silly watching how good Zach Wilson was in comparison to their ex-QB on the other side of the field…Sam Darnold (24-35 for 279 yards, 1 TD/0 INT).

Darnold was fine here because he just throws screen passes to CMC. I could’ve thrown for 200+ yards in this game just dumping it off to McCaffrey. And can I say: It’s 2021, we all have seen Christian McCaffrey play and thrive the past several years, right? Still, no one near him on almost every pass route he runs out of the backfield. There’s barely anyone in the camera shot when he catches his dump passes. You’d think NFL head coaches and coordinators could be that stupid not to plan for CMC getting every other pass, but then again – you watched MNF, right? Did you see Darren Waller getting every target and the Ravens not adjusting to it at all?

Darnold is fine when he’s dumping the ball off. He found Robby Anderson (1-57-0/3) in broken coverage for a long TD to help give Sam numbers. Other than that, all limited small ball…but it was there so it worked. Still in the 2nd-half of this game, as the Jets closed in…Carolina scored all of 3 points.

 -- Sam D. occasionally has to throw to someone else besides McCaffrey. His top non-CMC choice seems to be D.J. Moore (6-80-0/8)…working like his Jamison Crowder from back in his NYJ days.

And Robby Anderson (1-57-1/3) is like his old Robby from their NYJ days – the guy Darnold can never hit with any consistency because it’s further than 2 yards down field. Good thing they gave Robby a big contract extension this preseason -- for his one big catch in a game against a defense that barely has CBs any of us have ever heard of…against CBs that have barely ever played in the NFL. Real QBs would have exposed that…but Darnold threw a bunch of dump passes to McCaffrey and scored 19 whole points in a game against it.

Terrace Marshall (3-26-0/6) still looks like a decent receiving tight end trying to be a wide receiver, to me.

 -- The two defenses…

The Panthers defense is rock solid across the starting 11. One of the best defensive units in the NFL. Not elite but higher end…a playoff level defense trying to cover for a bottom 10 NFL offense. Carolina will end 2021 with a top 5-10 scoring DST.

Again, I loved the Jets defense’s energy and speed and aggression…but they are not ready to be taken seriously for FF, yet. Let’s see how they do when facing a not-Darnold opponent. Week 2 against Mac Jones is a step up in QB/O-Line but the Jets may make this tough on Belichick’s boys.

The problem is the Jets are losing starting defenders by the bunch to injury every week. They are down to linebackers off the street this week.

Snap Counts of Interest:

52 = DJ Moore

52 = Robby

34 = T Marshall

57 = CMC

07 = Chuba Hubbard

35 = Ian Thomas

33 = Dan Arnold

12 = Tremble

58 = Corey Davis

56 = Elijah Moore

37 = Berrios

09 = Jeff Smith

03 = Mims

43 = Kroft

31 = Ry Griffin

20 = Wesco

R.C. Fischer

FFM

17 September 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 1: Texans 37, Jags 21

I mean…

This is unbelievable.

How are these two teams existing in the NFL?

The Texans are pretty bad and trying to lose. However, they ran into the one team exponentially worse…oddly, one trying to win -- but are so bad, so poorly coached they didn’t have one ounce of life in them, and they got bombed here. The Texans tried to give this to Jacksonville, but the Jags refused to take it…and went one better, really working hard to give them the game, and successfully doing so with terrible Trevor Lawrence turnovers.

I’m usually suspicious of reports like ‘Urban Meyer is already under fire in Jacksonville’, I mean it’s only been a week/one game into the season. But watching this game…watching the body language on the sidelines…watching the effort on the field…watching Urban’s body language on the sidelines – this team is D.O.A. already. I can believe Urban is one and done.

Will he be fired? No? That would be too much of an admittance of a grave error by the owner.

Here’s how he’ll get it out of it: https://youtu.be/NK9HXu9g5qA

Completely embarrassing display of football with a group of players exhibiting no life whatsoever.  Urban Meyer is going to totally destroy any shred of credibility he has.

What does this say about Jim Harbaugh, who could never beat him in college? Another fraud head coach.

Does there exist an actual ‘good’, difference making head coach anywhere in the NFL? Help us Brandon Staley…you’re only hope.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Well, let’s get into it right away. Let’s talk Trevor Lawrence (28-51 for 332 yards, 3 TDs/3 INTs).

Speaking of embarrassing, the entire NFL analyst group…and NFL scouts, and anyone associated with thinking Trevor Lawrence was generational is not looking too good right now. I know…’it’s early’. Why isn’t it early for Mac Jones (as one example)…or Burrow-Herbert-Hurts last year? I know…Josh Allen took three years to develop – but he’s the one in a zillion case in the NFL with 2x the tools of Lawrence.  

‘Bubble Boy’ was on complete display with Trevor. He has three types of throws…

1) Quick, no read bubble and tunnel screens. Which he executes well.

2) Pre-determined, no read fastballs medium and deep, hoping no one is in front of the throw…but unfortunately there were multiple times someone was. And Lawrence is so inaccurate downfield, as I said in January 2021…and every month since – some of his picks and near picks was him throwing 5+ yards away from any receiver, and right into the hands of the defense.

His accuracy downfield is as bad as I thought it was going to be.

3) Against prevent defenses down by 3+ scores, playing pitch-and-catch/7-on-7 like ball and having some success but still flirting with danger and off target way too much.

Maybe he’ll get better – but the guy I saw in college (against real opponents), the weak downfield thrower…it’s here year one. You have to hope he gets better by some miracle as he goes. He’ll get 3-4 years to do so because THEY think he’s special now.

Lawrence is like a tall, scarecrow-looking version of Johnny Manziel’s style of QB play – a bunch of quick passing near the line of scrimmage, and then blandly up for grabs down the field.

 -- On the other side, Tyrod Taylor (21-33 for 291 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) is pretty awful too…but he’s not as jittery in the pocket. Give him time and he might make a decent throw. He floated several balloons that almost got picked, as is his norm. When they face better defenses…he’s in big trouble.

 -- To my eyes, looking at this game, the best RB on the Jaguars is Carlos Hyde (9-41-0, 2-14-0/2). Hyde ran with more juice, power, and elusiveness than James Robinson (5-25-0, 3-29-0/6). With Robinson dropping passes and looking sluggish behind a terrible O-Line…it’s not going to be a great FF output season for JRob., and with pouty, tantrum-throwing Urban at the helm…with his OSU guy Hyde there – not good signs for JRob.

 -- The worst RB on the Texans is also their ‘workhorse’, and what the entire offense is built on – Mark Ingram (26-85-1, 0-0-0/1). I won’t waste time discussing how stupid this is – just know that it is and you’re going to get a lot of these 20+ carries for 60+ yard uninspiring games.

Meanwhile, David Johnson (3-10-0, 3-18-1/6) is the world's largest 3rd-down back in a team with a horrible passing QB. He still scored a TD and is strangely in the James White, Nyheim Hines, Gio Bernard discussion in PPR leagues.

 -- Who was Trevor throwing to?

Well, D.J. Chark (3-86-1/12) saw 12 targets…but only caught 3 of them. Not a DJC issue, just Lawrence throwing passes without a cause and not many landing. But one deep one snuck in about a blink from being picked, but it hit and got a long score.

All I know is – I said Chark was in trouble in the preseason because Lawrence is not a good downfield passer. 3 catches on 12 targets later, I haven’t changed my mind.

Marvin Jones (5-77-1/9) is TL’s preferred medium throw, but it looked rough until the prevent defense started.

Laviska Shenault (7-50-0/10) is going to have this stat line every week. It’s not terrible…just he has little FF scoring upside. It’s all Bubble Boy work.

TE James O’Shaughnessy (6-48-0/8) oddly got 8 targets…and 6 catches. It was dink-and-dunk safe work, but it was something. The two disconnects were raw drops by O’S. He could have had an 8 catch day here.

 -- Speaking of TEs, the best receiving TE in this game was Pharoh Brown (4-67-0/5)…and good pitch-and-catch option…and he had a helluva one-handed catch down the field on a nice Tyrod floater.

There’s minor deep sleeper appeal here, because this was a good game against a bad defense…and Brown is dealing with a concussion and may not play this week.

Snap Counts of Interest:

61 = Cooks

43 = Nico Collins

40 = Conley

17 = Amendola

36 = Ingram

22 = DJ

20 = Lindsay

59 = O’Shaughnessy

26 = Manhertz

59 = Ph Brown

47 = Akins

47 = JRob

25 = Hyde

20 = Roy Lopez

23 = Andre Cisco

29 = Tyson Campbell

R.C. Fischer

FFM

17 September 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 1: Dolphins 17, Patriots 16

The best way I can describe this game is – it was like I was watching left-handed Tua (Tua) facing off against right-handed Tua (Mac Jones) in a contest of who could get rid of the ball faster. As if there were a secret device inside the football that was going to blow up at a random hot potato time, and the QBs knew they needed to be rid of the problem as quickly as possible.

The better Tua did not win in the end. As the Pats were driving into the goal-to-go area with 3+ minutes left, Damien Harris fumbled it away and that allowed Miami to run the clock out and take their 1-point lead and turn it into a lucky victory.

Both teams quick-passed and ran it heavy at each other in a boring manner. New England was better in all phases, but not by much…but they did have a stellar 37/23 time of possession win, which usually means a real NFL win -- but two lost fumbles were a killer in the ‘playing it safe’ bowl of Week 1. By every key stat…yards, yards per play, time of possession, sacks, 3rd-down conversions…the Pats should have won this game easily…but they didn’t.

This was not a good start to my Miami under win total bet for 2021 but watching the tape…I feel confident I will cash that ticket in the end.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Let’s talk about left-handed Tua (16-27 for 202 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) first…

Another simplistic game where Tua predetermines his read and takes a quick/1-to-3-step drop and fires before anyone can react to it. It’s a short game, dink-and-dunk style offense…that works when there is no pressure. If you can get into 3rd-and-long, Tua is dead. If you make Tua go to his right, he’s dead. If I were an NFL coordinator, I would blitz Tua from his left constantly to force him to go right -- which is going to be his kryptonite…on top of the fact that he’s not a real NFL QB.

Matt Patricia is a literal rocket scientist…and couldn’t figure this out with a year of tape already. But after seeing what he did with the Lions the past few years…I am not surprised.

Tua is still Tua…a little more confident and settled this year, but same old quick pass and pray. Don’t take my word for it…read what the Patriots top CB had to say after the game:

Patriots cornerback J.C. Jackson gave a candid response when asked about Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa's fourth-quarter interception, which could have cost Miami the game had it not recovered a Damien Harris fumble on New England's ensuing drive.

"That's what Tua do," Jackson told reporters after the game when asked about the interception via the Boston Herald's Andrew Callahan. "If he doesn't have his first read, he's just gonna throw the ball up."

Had New England not coughed this up to Miami…had Miami lost, and then lost to Buffalo Week 2 – there would be a Tua revolution starting to overthrow him. Tua gets a one-week reprieve from that. The time will be coming…

 -- Right-handed Tua, Mac Jones (29-39 for 281 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) was mimicking Tua at first – a ton of 3-step drops and quick no-read fire. Hey, it worked…I guess. It moved the ball efficiently, until they get closer to the end zone/a short field then it gets crowded to try and do that as efficiently.

However, as the game went on Mac started quick firing from more 5-step drops and pushing the ball, finding receivers downfield. Mac Jones played a solid game here. He is progressing nicely. He’s already better than Tua will ever be. He looked, mostly, like a real QB from about halfway through the 2nd-quarter on.

But I wouldn’t count on a ton of Fantasy passing tallies anytime soon, for him or his receivers. But hope is on the horizon that he’s a midrange/good passer that allows for decent PPR tallies for his receivers…probably in another few weeks, and not facing any top tier defenses.

In general, Mac Jones looks like ‘the real deal’…meaning, he can play. He’s smart. Good mechanics. The more he learns his craft, the better he’s going to get. But under a Bill Belichick system and given the later season weather – it will probably never be that great for FF purposes. It won’t be bad, but it will be good/solid/better for the NFL than FF.

Tom Brady used to roll top 5-10 FF scoring numbers 4-5+ years ago, back when there were only a handful of decent QBs pushing bigger FF numbers. Now, the league has exploded with dynamic playmakers with nice footspeed – and Jones isn’t there yet and isn’t a real runner. Jones is going to be good in the end, but probably a top 15-20 Fantasy QB producer and not a top 10 one.

 -- The top targets for Tua…

I’d say, over time 2021, Jaylen Waddle (4-61-1/5) will probably be the top target. Because it works better in the flow of Tua’s style…quick 3-step or 1-step drop and fire passes quickly to receiver parallel to the line of scrimmage – like a tunnel screen, bubble screen, extended handoff, etc. Also, quick designed very short slants on occasion. Miami seems to have plays designed for Waddle that Tua can handle. Their get the ball to Waddle quickly and hope for good things plan is not a new one for a WR, it just makes sense with what Tua can do…but mostly results in a bunch of short yardage plays. A four catch for 50+ yards week is to be expected often here…and then you have to hope he finds his way for a TD. It’s not the worst thing for a speedy WR like Waddle for FF…4-5 touches a game hoping he springs one. He would be my #1 choice of the Miami lot for FF.

DeVante Parker (4-81-0/7) led in targets bit it was another low connection rate. Tua looked for Parker when he went downfield…but it’s not smooth or consistent. When Will Fuller arrives (if he ever does), it will be much of the same for him plus he’ll splitting into Parkers’ targets some, little as they may be.

 -- The top target for Mac…

Jakobi Meyers (6-44-0/9) makes a nice pitch-and-catch WR option for Mac. As Jones started out with a Tua style (get rid of it fast on predesigned throws), the WRs were not as involved because they could barely get into their routes before passes were dumped off. But as this game wore on, Jones got more comfortable and was turning into more flashes of Tom Brady style – longer drop backs and then firing short and medium downfield…with success. Meyers was a nice option to find for Jones.

James White (4-12-0, 6-49-0/7) is probably Mac’s favorite throw right now, but that may be fleeting as he gets more comfortable throwing past the line of scrimmage and downfield. This works for now.

Nelson Agholor (5-72-1/7) looked like a solid target as the game wore on, and Jones got more comfortable. He and Meyers are the top targets…but I don’t see Mac really leaning on any one guy except James White as a checkdown.

The two TEs combined for a boring 8 targets combined. Jonnu Smith (5-42-0/5) was more involved of the two TEs, but it wasn’t exciting. Hunter Henry (3-31-0/3) looks like good money wasted in free agency, and a TE2 this season.

 -- The same way James White is a nice checkdown in a short/get-rid-of-it-quick passing game, Myles Gaskin (9-49-0, 5-27-0/5) is that guy for Tua. It’s a safe, quick pass for him. Gaskin showed all the signs of being the #1 back here. Malcolm Brown (5-16-0/5) was a limited presence…who ran a couple of useless wildcat plays as his big contribution.

 -- Damien Harris (23-100-0, 2-17-0/3) rules the ground in this game for NE…a lot of carries, for a lot of short yardage gains but efficient enough, Harris opened the game with a 35-yard run, then had 75 yards on 22 carries (3.4 ypc) the rest of the way.

 -- I was hoping the Patriots-DST would be good+ with a great early season schedule. They were solid here, but minus Stephon Gilmore…and Tua just quick passing and so willing to punt and play defense, it was hard to get bigger DST numbers in this one. However, they did drop 1-2 easy picks of Tua…and they did hit him 9 times, but only got two sacks to show for it. Overall, not bad…but no major DST numbers in this one, but not bad.

The Pats-DST faces Z. Wilson, Winston before Brady comes to town…then Tyrod. Still a good option for three of the next 4 weeks, in theory.

 -- Kyle Dugger (7 tackles) was constantly listed as a 2nd-teamer on depth charts this offseason…but he started and played 95% of the snaps. As a starter, he will lead the Pats in tackles, I bet…and be a DB1 performer.

Snap Counts of Interest:

74 = Meyers

74 = Agholor

55 = Jonnu

54 = H Henry

33 = Bourne

40 = Dam Harris

28 = J White

05 = Rhamondre

45 = D Parker

43 = Waddle

38 = Smythe

21 = Gesicki

Rookies…

26 = Barmore (49%)

24 = Jevon Holland (32%)

R.C. Fischer

FFM

17 September 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 1: Broncos 27, Giants 13

The Giants scored a meaningless TD as time expired, or this would have been a 27-7 deemed blowout. The eventual 14-point win on the road is pretty impressive as it is.

Actually, rewatching this game…the Giants were a little better than the score indicated, but so many self-inflicted wounds. The Giants are just short of what it takes to be a consistent winning team. They have pieces. They play hard. They just don’t have the firepower on offense or the blocking to get to ‘winning’ consistently.

Denver is the aspiration of the G-Men…a stable QB with a good O-Line and a tough defense, an old-school good football team. The Giants wish they were the Broncos, but they are not. This was a solid win for the Broncos, but I wasn’t wildly impressed or blown away with them…they took care of business because they are better than the Giants. They should win this game more times than not. They did. The schedule is the Broncos friend Weeks 1-3, then we’ll see if they can start out (3-0) and then go (7-7) the rest of the way to get to 10 wins and a wild card.

*Note, I am writing this game report after having watched NYG-WSH on TNF Week 2. So, I will mix some live watch Week 2 perspective in on NYG notes here.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- The biggest FF-impression made on me from this game (and from watching Week 2) – Saquon Barkley (10-26-0, 1-1-0/3) is going to kill your FF teams, for those that took him as a ‘bargain’ in the 1st-round of redrafts 2021.

Barkley looks fine, but it’s the surrounding circumstances that are killing him. Defenses key on Barkley, and they want Daniel Jones to try and beat them…knowing he’s a high-turnover guy. Barkley is going to have the same issue David Johnson had in Arizona his final two years and his lone year in Houston after that – high-level of talent, but no O-Line and defenses keying on him, so he has no room to run. Every tote is a slog…every carry a disappointment watching him if you owned him for FF.

I don't own any Saquon Barkley, but I have owned DJ a lot the past few years…and been tortured seeing a talent go to waste. I can, you can, the world can do all the scouting of these prospects they want – but the O-Line and QB matters more than the talent, unfortunately. Talent is part of the equation but not THE dominant factor.

With all the bad results, THEY will say that Barkley must be still having lingering effects of his injury…but I think it’s just a surrounding NYG circumstances issue.

Barkley’s numbers in his last 16 games (to mimic a used-to-be full season) during the Daniel Jones era:

248 carries, 1,000 yards rushing (4.03 ypc), 6 rushing TDs

57 catches (82 targets), 492 rec. yards, 2 rec. TDs

93.3 total yards per game, 0.50 TDs per game, 3.56 catches per game…high-end RB2 work.

In 4 games with Joe Judge the past two seasons:

57 rushing yards for a high in a game, no TDs, 2.88 yards per carry on 42 carries.

I don’t see how Saquon magically springs to a top FF RB going forward, not in 2021. The O-Line is still bad and has lost a couple of starters to injury already. Teams will still be fine letting Daniel Jones try and beat them. When he’s played the whole game (not left early hurt), Jones is 7-20-0 as a starter in the NFL, a 35% win-rate.

If you’re counting on Saquon for FF 2021…you are probably in big trouble. The first two weeks have been a disaster.

  -- Speaking of Daniel Jones (22-31 for 267 yards, 1 TDs/0 INTs, 6-27-1)…he is looking better in 2021. Like…the better half of the bottom 10 QBs type of QB.

One of the reasons he is looking better is directly tied to Saquon – as defenses overplay Saquon, they thus dare Jones to beat them, and he is throwing into soft coverages or finding decent 1-on-1 matchups to heave prayers towards. It’s working not too bad, so far. He was OK here. He was good against Washington Week 2 TNF.

He still throws too many errant passes and throws into danger at the first sign of pressure, but when given enough time he can do what Mac Jones is doing for the Patriots – using the run game to help him quick-pass successfully like it’s a 7-on-7 throwing game. Only Mac Jones has a better O-Line, coaching, and is a better talent.

Jones is working OK as a passer, but then running more to suddenly make him an odd QB1 threat…a weak NFL QB who puts up good FF numbers.

If Saquon goes down, then Dan Jones is dead. He exists only by hiding behind Saquon.

 -- Teddy Bridgewater (28-36 for 264 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT, 3-19-0) is doing a better version of what Daniel Jones is trying to do. Teddy is working safe/smart behind a much better O-Line. Plus, Teddy is a better QB in general…and for sure more experienced. And Teddy is showing a desire to run with it when available.

Bridgewater is a solid QB2, and possible bye week flyer on a proper matchup. Better for the NFL than for FF.

 -- You’d rather have either of the Denver RBs for FF than Saquon. How FF-chilling is that statement? Again, O-Line rules.

What’s the status of the Denver backfield after one whole week?

Well, Melvin Gordon (11-101-1, 3-17-0/3) is definitely starting…but Javonte Williams (14-45-0, 1-0-0/1) is right there. This was not Gordon as the clear lead with Javonte sprinkled in. Javonte was into the game right away and sometimes was starting some series as the RB. It is only a matter of time before Javonte is the lead/main toucher…even if Gordon always ceremonially starts.

Three things to consider from these RBs in this game…

1) Gordon had a 70-yard TD run late…when the Giants were stacking the line to try and make a final stop to somehow stay in the game. Outside of that run, Gordon had 10 carries for 31 yards prior…3.1 ypc.

2) Javonte rushed 14 times for 3.2 ypc. The Giants might have a killer run defense in the making. They bottled up the WSH run game on TNF Week 2.

3) With Denver ahead 20-13 with 6+ minutes remaining, they got the ball back deep in their own territory. It was a key series where Denver could put NYG away (and they did). It was Javonte Williams in the game to start that key series – that’s a lot of faith for a rookie RB.

It’s only a matter of time.

My eyeballs saw there’s no comparison of Javonte and Gordon in 2021 Week 1…Javonte is way faster/quicker/better. It’s only a matter of time.

 -- We all want to chase the latest and greatest young WR who looks like the next Tyreek or the next Davante or next DeAndre or next Julio…and we laugh off and ignore boring old Sterling Shepard (7-113-1/9) as beneath our sensibilities. We shrug off a team’s #1 WR to chase rookie fairy tales.

We shrugged off a guy (Shepard) who will be a top 5 PPR WR for FF scoring after Week 2…you will wish your Stefon Diggs, and Davante Adams had the same YTD numbers as Shepard after Week 2.

Can this keep up? Sure, why not? He just lit up Washington’s defense. And if Daniel Jones is getting a free ride to throw because of Saquon paranoia by defenses – then Shepard is going for the ride with Jones. Shepard has been Dan’s #1 target ever since Jones has been a starter. The question is – can Shepard stay healthy? Otherwise…he’s a solid WR2+ all day long in PPR.

 -- The Denver #1 WR is Courtland Sutton (1-14-0/3)…and he got taken out by James Bradberry. Teddy didn’t even bother trying…there was plenty of opportunity elsewhere. Should be better days ahead for Sutton, but C.J. Henderson is no slouch Week 2. It’s not a gimme. Week 3 v. NYJ is the gimme.

Speaking of Denver WRs… You know their starters are Sutton-Patrick, right? That Tim Patrick (4-39-1/4) is the starter in 2WR sets…the 2WR/2TE sets that Fangio loves? It’s true.

Jerry Jeudy (6-72-0/7) came in on three WR sets and is working more like CeeDee Lamb now (and not just deep ball guy)…which is good for his FF purposes, but then he got landed on wrong/badly and hurt his calf. Watching that injury…I wouldn’t expect him back on the early estimates of his injury.

K.J. Hamler (3-41-0/4) was running as a #4 WR coming in and out as needed. He’ll be the #3 for a while with JJ gone

The main guys are Sutton-Patrick.

Don’t believe me?

Snap Counts for the WRs here:

53 = Sutton

46 = Patrick

31 = Jeudy

24 = Hamler

 -- Three notes on Giants’ receivers…

1) Kenny Golladay (4-64-0/6) is looking back to healthy/speed but doesn’t look like the right fit to work with Jones…not to take him back to his lofty DET levels.

2) Kadarius Toney (2-0-0/2) was a ghost. Barely knew he played. And after the game he was shooting his mouth off about his role. That guy is a bust…even faster than I said he would be.

3) If Daniel Jones is seeing more time to throw and looks better…might Evan Engram (DNP) be his best FF-self upon return? I’m just saying…the passing game isn’t as bad as it was last year. As long as Saquon takes the heat, this pass game is not the worst.

 -- I like the personnel and coaching on the NYG and DEN defenses. Both plausible NFL defenses to consider in the right matchups for FF DSTs.

However, NYG struggles more on offense…and doesn’t support the defense as well as what Denver does. Therefore, I like Denver better. BUT…neither is a candidate for some lockdown defensive greatness.

I always take a long look at DEN DST to see if THIS is the time Fangio rises up for a 2019 Bears defensive event. But I don’t see it here. The Denver defense is good, it’s not ‘wow’.

Either DST is slick/plausible in the right matchup. That’s why Denver was my go-to DST to start the year, when all else failed or the NE-BUF stream route wasn’t taken. Denver facing Jones-Lawrence-Z.Wilson is about as good as it gets these days. There are not many ‘great’ matchups for DSTs in the era of all good QBs…plus there is no ‘wow’ defense in the NFL anymore.

The only hope at ‘wow’ among DSTs seems to be Arizona since Washington $#!& the bed Week 2 vs. NYG.

Snap Counts of Interest:

29 = Barkley

24 = Booker

33 = Javonte

33 = Gordon

51 = Fant

37 = Albert O

22 = Saubert

Rookies:

16 = Surtain

08 = Brightwell

05 = Toney

R.C. Fischer

FFM

16 September 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 1: Cardinals 38, Titans 13

This was a butt-whoopin’ from the opening whistle. There’s no need for a long explanation or minute description about this game itself, no nuisance takes – Arizona smoked the Titans. The only thing I could add is that the Titans are lucky – this could’ve been worse.

The Titans are weak/not as good as people expected, but they’re not horrible. The Colts look like ‘meh’. Maybe the 1st-place Texans really are the best team in the AFC South? Comedy aside, the AFC South will come down to Indy and Tennessee…and the Titans will probably finish around 8-9 wins and be a decent team…which further speaks to how impressive Arizona was here.

Oh, and Arizona is going to win the NFC West…sorry Cris Collinsworth – you and Matt Stafford can go make out on the couch while the Cardinals are hosting a playoff game.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- We have to start with the reason why Arizona stormed the Titans…that Arizona defense.

I saw a good amount of this live, so when I rewatched it to study it…I was looking to see if the Cardinals defense was really as good as I thought. I was trying to prove myself wrong…making sure I wasn't getting too hyped about something I decided on from the preseason.

After watching this back, the answer? Yep. They were better than I remembered.

I mean, the Titans could barely get a play for positive yardage in the 1st-quarter. Derrick Henry (17-58-0, 3-19-0/4) was eviscerated all game. Every pass was contested by coverage. Tannehill was swarmed every other drop back. Arizona had the best defense I saw in the preseason…and they carried that to Week 1. To my eyes, this is the best overall defense in football.

Three defenders to highlight…

1) Chandler Jones (6 tackles, 5 sacks, 4 TFLs) was a wrecking machine, obviously.

What I just want to point out is… That the greatest NFL coach of our lifetimes ditched 2021’s current top pass rusher/sack man and the reigning Super Bowl MVP QB WAYYY too short of the time he should have. Both have prospered away from Bill Belichick…a coach who just lost to Tua at home Week 1.

Bill, The Wizard of Oz called…he wants you to get out from behind his curtain.

Maybe Belichick is the greatest coach in football – he has single-handedly handed the Bucs a Super Bowl, the Cardinals the foundation for a top defense and a division title, the Chiefs a top O-Lineman (Thuney) in free agency to further cement their elite status…while Belichick-ite coaches go litter the NFL and lose/destroy NFL teams. The Lions (Patricia era), Titans, Dolphins, Houston (Bill O’Brien + now Jack Easterly), the Giants all have one thing in common…wait, two things in common: (1) they’re all dying franchises that won’t make the playoffs…and they have all Belichick people at the helm.

I’d name you the Belichick-offspring successful coaching staff or front office today to counter all those situations I just named…but there are none…including the current New England Patriots.

2) Byron Murphy (4 tackles, 3 PDs) has become a top NFL corner…not ‘the top’ just ‘a top’, emerging.

3) Isaiah Simmons (9 tackles, 2 PDs) looks so much better as a tackler this year than last…or his years at Clemson. No longer just a chase and drag down guy. I saw him bring down Derrick Henry on his own with not the best window at Henry, but he popped him and muscled him down quickly and halted him in his tracks all solo.

There are many defensive performers to laud here because this is not the Rams defense – driven by 2-3 superstars. No, the Cardinals are a true swarming unit that plays turned up to ‘11’ every minute of the game. Very impressive – it should earn D-C Vance Joseph another head coaching opportunity, which he will fail at (just stick to being a great D-C)…but it will happen after people comprehend what they see with the Arizona defense in 2021.

If Arizona goes and embarrasses Kirk Cousins and friends this week…then you know it wasn’t a one game fluke. I can’t wait for @JAX Week 3 for my new favorite DST.

 -- Arizona can move the ball on offense as well, which makes them a lethal team…and maybe a Super Bowl contender.

Kyler Murray (21-32 for 289 yards, 4 TDs/1 INT, 5-20-1) looks better and better in this joke of an offensive scheme/plan. It’s a garbage Air Raid that Kyler makes work…makes improv plays in to keep it moving.

 -- Who does Kyler throw to when not throwing to DeAndre Hopkins?

He spreads it around to…

A.J. Green (2-25-0/6), who is still mostly toast as an NFL WR. Thus the 33% completion rate to him here…and extension from his 45.2% clip with Cincy last season…a chunk of that being bad-with-Burrow when every other WR was prospering with Burrow.

Christian Kirk (5-70-2/5) had a game…but only 5 targets. He looks fine, but there just doesn’t seem to be the X-factor between he and Kyler…but it’s useful/it works.

Rondale Moore (4-68-0/5) was not as involved as I thought. Sure, he has numbers…but he was more out of the game, than in (20 snaps played) and his targets were either off improvisation or in a more garbage time capacity.

Moore still looks great, and his time is coming (because AJG is done). But it may be a few more weeks as they bring him along slowly, not try and feature him early on it appears.

 -- Chase Edmonds (12-63-00, 4-43-0/40 is definitely the back to have here…especially in PPR.

James Conner (16-53-0) was an afterthought most of the time and got more carries late in the blowout trying to run out the clock.

 -- Tennessee was so overwhelmed by the Cardinals defense that I don’t really have a ton of notes for the Titans offensive players. I don’t want to judge them when facing a machine like the Arizona defense 2021.

However, there is one main note – Julio Jones (3-29-0/6) is playing sloppy, uninspired football. Watching him this offseason and in this debut game – one could judge, from a distance, that Julio doesn’t seem to be ‘into it’ like you’d hope (if you owned him for FF…or the NFL). His time on top appears to be coming to an end…something Atlanta seems like they knew. Just in time. But let’s see what happens when they face non-Arizona defenses. But the radar has been triggered.

Snap Counts of Interest:

40 = D Henry

23 = McNichols

01 = Sargent

61 = D Hopkins

55 = AJ Green

39 = Kirk

20 = Moore

40 = Edmonds

34 = Conner

69 = Fulton

61 = J Jenkins

41 = Elijah Molden

Ross Jacobs

FFM

16 September 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 1: Chiefs 33, Browns 29 (By Ross Jacobs)

This was another really good game, and I have a somewhat shocking statement to make. I think the Browns might be the better team here. They were taking it to the Chiefs for 3 quarters and then a couple of missteps in about a 5 minute period opened the door for the Chiefs to charge through. 

Credit the Chiefs, they never panicked and when the Browns gave them an inch they took a mile, but like we saw last year, this team is prone to getting down in games and then relying on Mahomes to throw them back in it. It works most of the time, but they aren't invincible. I'm absolutely convinced the Browns are a legit Superbowl threat now and one of the best teams in the AFC. Unfortunately, they lost what should have been a win here and it might cost them the #1 seed come playoff time and that is huge.

The Browns opened their first 3 drives with easy TD's. I mean they waltzed right down the field on the Chiefs like it was nothing. It was 22-10 Browns at the half and KC scored on their first possession in the second half to make it 22-17. The Browns started driving easily again, but a rare fumble from Nick Chubb gave KC the ball at the 45 and a FG soon after cut the Browns lead to 2. The entire 3rd quarter passed and the Browns ran a total of 4 plays. On their next drive the Browns did the same thing they'd done all game, drove the field and scored easily. KC hadn't done anything to stop them at this point. Seconds later though, Mahomes found Tyreek Hill 1-on-1 with John Johnson, and much like the Deebo Samuel play, Johnson lost track of the ball after Mahomes heaved it deep, Tyreek adjusted to make the catch and Johnson overran the play and had no chance to tackle Tyreek. 1 play, 75 yards, and a TD to make it 29-27. 

KC finally managed to stall the Browns on their next drive with a Chris Jones sack, and you could feel the energy change as the team and fans got fired up. The Browns looked totally rattled. On Cleveland's first punt all game the punter inexplicably dropped the ball and KC took over at the Cleveland 15 yard line. Of course KC punched in the TD to take the lead and they never relinquished it. Baker Mayfield threw the game-sealing INT while falling to the ground and trying to throw the ball away.

It took a few strange, lucky plays for KC to win this game. A Chubb fumble, a dropped punt that gave KC an easy TD, and the heave to Tyreek all could easily have not happened and then we'd be talking about how great Cleveland looked. Instead we're left with the image of the mighty Chiefs charging back to crush the upstart Browns, and while there's some truth to that, it isn't the whole truth. This is a very good Browns squad, make no mistake. They are my bet to take down the NFC North although Baltimore and Pittsburgh probably won't go quietly. The Chiefs are the Chiefs. Great offense, suspect defense that just plays for a turnover or two to give Mahomes a slight edge. That's their pattern and it works for them. This was a heavyweight title fight and the Chiefs came out on top, but I'd be very careful about crowning them just yet. The Browns are ready to compete.

--Fantasy Notes

There's not much to cover for fantasy that everyone doesn't already know. Patrick Mahomes (27-36 for 337 yards, 3 TD/0 INT, 5-18-1) is doing what he always does.

Tyreek Hill (11-197-1/15, 1-4-0) and Travis Kelce (6-76-2/7) are the offense and everybody knows it but nobody can stop it. Tyreek obviously had a huge game and is still a top 3 WR, but don't expect him to put up this kind of game every week. The somewhat fluky 75 yard TD helped put him over the top. Otherwise we'd be looking at a nice 10-122-0 day.

RC seems to hate Clyde Edwards-Helaire (14-43-0, 3-29-0/3) but I really like his role this year and I think he's a sneaky buy low right now. 14 carries when the Chiefs are down all game is quite nice and there's no threat to his touches on this team. He's not going to lead the league in rushing or anything, but he's going to catch a decent number of passes and the TD's will come just because the offense as a whole is so good. I'll be trying to pick him up where I can this week.

RC NOTE: Where could we ever find RBs who get 14 carries in a game -- why pay a ‘name’ premium for 14 carries of nothing in most games he plays? 14 carries for 3.1 ypc...working with the greatest QB in history, which should open massive running lanes to work with on his 14 carries. But it didn;t...it almost never does with him. He’s a solid player but why pay the name value for RB2 results?

Nobody else really matters for this offense. Demarcus Robinson (1-9-0/2) plays the most snaps but it's Mecole Hardman (3-19-0/3) the team would most like to get involved. He sucks though. There will be splash days here and there, but you can't count on him with any consistency. Byron Pringle (1-6-0/2) is barely playing.

For the Browns it all revolves around Nick Chubb (15-83-2, 2-18-0/2) as it should. He is still splitting snaps nearly 50-50 with Hunt who is the 3rd down and 2-minute guy, but Chubb is the go-to when he's on the field. He's the best pure runner in the entire league. The guy is just so good at finding a crease and plowing ahead for positive yards. He's a better Dalvin Cook for this team and since Cleveland will be winning a lot this year I expect high touch counts and lots of TD's. So long as he stays healthy he'll be a top 5 or 6 back.

Chubb is definitely the lead back over Kareem Hunt (6-33-1, 3-28-0/3) although Hunt still has ppr value and is an instant RB1 if Chubb gets hurt. You have to have Hunt if you have Chubb.

Baker Mayfield (21-28 for 321 yards, 0 TD/1 INT) is a really good QB. He doesn't throw many TD's these days, but he has really become a very smart, very efficient QB. He'll have his day in fantasy at some point, he's too good not to, but for now we have to settle for just ok.

Jarvis Landry (5-71-0/5, 2-13-1) is the top guy while OBJ is out, but don't expect that to last. He's a decent WR2-2.5 play most of the time.

Donovan Peoples-Jones (1-4-0/1) was on the field a ton but didn't seem to be part of the game plan. I'm interested in him next year after OBJ and/or Landry are gone.

The most shocking development of this game for fantasy was the Browns heavy use of rookie Anthony Schwartz (3-69-0/5, 1-17-0). Schwartz played better than I would have expected, you can see the speed in an instant, but his hands are so shaky. He nearly dropped the one long ball he got to pad his totals here. I don't think he's a real WR at this point, but maybe he develops with time? Once OBJ is back his usage is going to drop. We'll have to see how he comes along next year when one or both of the two LSU receivers are gone.

Austin Hooper (3-23-0/3) and David Njoku (3-76-0/5) split time here. Hooper was in the game early and got all 3 of his catches on the first drive. Njoku was the primary TE look after that and I have to say he made a couple of really nice catches here. The athleticism has always been apparent but he was really catching the ball cleanly. You can't really count on either one while they are splitting though.

--IDP Notes

Myles Garrett (4 tackles, 1 sack) is pretty good. He blew past Orlando Brown a couple times.

Chris Jones (3 tackles, 2 sacks) is also very good. He wrecked everyone. The only player that really gave Jones fits was Cleveland RT Jedrick Wills who left the game in the 2nd quarter with an ankle injury. He's day to day and should be able to come back relatively soon. The Browns offensive line will be fine without him though. They are the league's best group to me.

Takk McKinley (2 tackles, 1 tfl) was added to the Cleveland roster this spring and he rotated in behind Garrett and Clowney. He's decent as a situational pass rusher, but at this point in his career it seems the best days are behind him. I didn't see any of the old spark from his Atlanta days.

I don't mean to pick on Denzel Ward (6 tackles, 1 pd) because he's a very good corner, but he got taken to school by Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce here. That's no crime and he really battled well against them. Rookie corner Greg Newsome started opposite him and Newsome looks like a lockdown CB already. He mostly had the lesser KC receivers to cover, but he smothered everything that came his way. These two are going to form a really nice duo so don't be shocked when teams not named Kansas City struggle to pass on these guys. This secondary will give up some yards because teams will be throwing heavy while losing but it shouldn't be efficient throwing. I really like this defense as a whole. They are a top 10 or so group and really only gave up 26 points to KC including the long Tyreek TD. It's hard to slow KC down but Cleveland did it as well as anybody. Watch for this defense to be a sneaky good option in the coming weeks.

Another rookie Nick Bolton (7 tackles, 1 tfl) had a quietly good game for a rookie LB. He's not the greatest athlete ever but he slotted right into the defense as a solid run defender. He looks like just another role player, but that's all KC needs mostly. He won't change the defense or anything, but he makes them a touch tougher to run on (you can still run on KC though). I wouldn't use him for fantasy yet. He'll likely finish with decent tackle numbers for the year but you can do better on a per game basis.

On the other side L'Jarius Sneed (7 tackles) is possibly KC's best corner and a very underrated player. He's going to give up some yards underneath because people have to throw against KC, but it's hard for most people to separate from him.

The Chiefs traded for Mike Hughes (2 tackles, 1 pd, 1 INT) this year to help bolster their secondary and he sealed the win by intercepting Mayfield, but he struggled in coverage at times even trying to cover rookie Anthony Schwartz. He's a decent player to help fill out the roster, but he isn't suddenly making this a shutdown secondary.

--Snap Counts of Interest

48 = Demarcus Robinson

45 = Mecole Hardman

11 = Byron Pringle

47 = Clyde Edwards-Helaire

14 = Darrel Williams

31 = Nick Chubb

28 = Kareem Hunt

51 = Jarvis Landry

47 = Donovan Peoples-Jones

31 = Anthony Schwartz

38 = Austin Hooper

35 = David Njoku

R.C. Fischer

FFM

16 September 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 1: Bengals 27, Vikings 24

I felt pretty good about calling this outright upset after Sunday’s dust settled, but then I rewatched the game and realized – the Bengals were the better team, but I got lucky here.

The Bengals tried to give the game to the Vikings several times, but Minnesota refused to fully take it. The Bengals earned the victory, but if you see the Vikings as a bad team…then it’s not that impressive to get a home opener win in OT here.

And that’s my take: The Bengals are improved, but the Vikings are weak, so we can’t get too over-happy with this Cincy win.

There are reasons to rejoice for Cincy fans…and reasons to panic. We’ll get into the specific reasons on why, next.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- The reason the Bengals won this game? Their defense. Imagine that…the Bengals have a defense now.

I saw much potential in the Bengals free agency moves on defense this offseason and then I saw flashes of the turn of this defense in the preseason – and they continued to follow through Week 1.

The Bengals D held Dalvin Cook (20-6101, 6-43-0/7) in check while frustrating Kirk Cousins (36-49 for 351 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) all game…3 sacks and 8 QB hits by the Bengals defense. Cousins wound up with nice numbers overall, but I don’t know how…it looked much tougher/rougher on tape.

How good are the Bengals on defense now? Think of them as going from the bottom 10 last year to the middle 10 NFL defenses today…a #14-18 type overall defense in the NFL. Not bad. Better than the bottom of the barrel they had been.

The player I want to identify as so key on defense in this game: New CB Chidobe Awuzie (6 tackles, 2 PDs). Several times he was man-to-man on Justin Jefferson (5-71-0/9) and Awuzie won most all the battles. The Awuzie and Mike Hilton (6 tackles, 1 TFL) additions have changed this defense.

 -- If you told me a year ago that the Bengals would have a plausible NFL defense in 2021, I would have predicted them to win the AFC North in 2021. But, today, I will not say that. Why?

Cincy, we have a problem… I don’t recognize this Joe Burrow (20-27 for 261 yards, 2 TDs/0 INTs) at all. It’s like aliens came down and snatched the real Burrow away and replaced him with a weaker replica. All the preseason chatter that something didn’t look right with Burrow…it’s real. It’s a real concern.

Burrow was tentative and threw flat-footed floaters all over the field. He saw the right things and made some nice touch passes, but the aggressive playmaker stepping into and firing his passes type of QB of the past is mostly gone right now. The greatest college QB we ever saw, and the guy who tore through the NFL as a rookie – he’s M.I.A. right now.

Now, we all know he had the devastating knee injury in 2020. We assume this is likely in his head…which means it can be fixed. But what I saw here…it’s definitely in his head. There were a few flashes of the old Burrow, barely…which means there’s hope. But I would be afraid that if Burrow can’t get it together -- he is going from ‘A’ to ‘B-C’ QB, and the fact that the Bengals did the single stupidest thing ever by passing on an O-Linemen at #5 overall in the NFL Draft to take a wide receiver isn’t going to help Burrow get over his tentativeness – as he was sacked 5 times and took on 7 QB hits this game. Most of that was an awful O-Line. Some of that was timid Burrow.

Burrow may snap out of it, but this problem has been rumored since June-July…and it’s here, it’s still here in September. For Fantasy…there are too many other good QBs to work with. If you have Burrow as your #2 QB, you can wait another game or two to see if he shakes it off…but be ready to cut and run and find another plan B. I’m going to be keeping tabs on this because it is a huge shift for FF if Burrow has the yips.

 -- If Burrow’s output is dropping, then who suffers among the WRs?

Tee Higgins (4-58-1/5) is CLEARLY Burrow’s go to, but as Burrow looked shaky…it rendered Higgins as ‘meh’, but fortunately got a TD (on one of Burrow’s best plays/old Burrow-like throws of the game).

Ja’Marr Chase (5-101-1/7) sprinted deep past coverage and Burrow floated one on the money to him for a 50-yard TD. Outside of that it was a normal/good performance by a WR from Chase, which is actually great news for him because he was butchering so much activity in the preseason, but he was solid in his debut here. Not off-the-charts or anything…just ‘good’.

Tyler Boyd (3-32-0/4) was the odd man out. Why? Just a hunch…Burrow is losing/has lost (temporarily?) his heart/stomach for throwing bullets into tight windows…and Boyd works more in-between the cracks of coverage over the middle. If Week 2 is a low target Boyd-Burrow dud…then we panic on Boyd.

 -- Let me put a WR/performance into context…

K.J. Osborn (7-76-0/9) looked terrific. I’m so pleased, I thought he had NFL starter chops…and he does. It’s clear now. He won’t start for MIN (on purpose) because they are a 2 WR/2 TE team too much, but the more they are forced into 3 WRs sets, the more Osborn could be really nice…but no more than a WR3 with Thielen-Jefferson in the way.

Two comparisons for context:

1) K.J. Osborn worked better than Ja’Marr Chase here.

2) I couldn’t really tell the difference between Jefferson and Osborn on the field…maybe Osborn looked a touch better.

Osborn won’t get the run that Thielen and Jefferson do, but if someone gets hurt…or if MIN is constantly down and throwing…KJO might have some WR3/flex appeals during the bye weeks.

 -- Tyler Conklin (4-41-0/4) looked solid but unspectacular here. The rise of Osborn takes cheap food/targets out of the mouth of Conklin. Conklin will be a TE2 looking for a TD to make TE1 weeks, like most TEs.

 -- MIN LB Nick Vigil (10 tackles, 1 sack, 2 TFLs) had a nice game against his former team. Because the Vikings are so bad on defense, and Vigil is starting…he should be IDP viable/consistent this year. Anthony Barr was out, so we don’t know his true role yet.

 -- Bengals rookie Evan McPherson (2/2 FGs, 3/3 XPs) showed his value right away – nailing a crucial 53-yard FG in game, what looked like a game winner at the time. But then hitting the real game winner in OT.

McPherson is a PK1 with top 5 PK hopes. He’s really, really good.

Snap Counts of Interest:

62 = Ja’Marr

51 = Higgins

51 = Boyd

08 = A Tate

78 = Thielen

76 = Jefferson

67 = Osborn

R.C. Fischer

FFM

15 September 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 1: Steelers 23, Bills 16

At the end of the day, all I can say is – this was a defensive slog. Plain and simple.

I thought the Steelers would be down on defense this year with them turning over two starting CBs and Bud Dupree, but they didn’t miss a beat…and might be better than last year’s very good defense (but the schedule is still a problem, as we’ll get into). I thought Josh Allen would overcome the 2021 Steelers D with ease…and that was not true either. I expected the Steelers offense to struggle with the Buffalo defense, and they did…that was part of this slog of a game, but the Bills offense was also flustered and it led to this low scoring affair – and one TD/score  for PIT came off a blocked punt. It was an offensive dud for both sides, really.

The Bills held the Steelers to only 252 total yards and just 33% 3rd-down conversions and Ben barely got over 50%+ completions -- holding the Steelers down like that should’ve produced a Bills win…but Buffalo constantly shot themselves in the foot with bad penalties (lot’s of holding…due to the PIT pass rush), some dropped passes, some poor play calls on 4th-down (Buffalo went 1 for 3 in 4th-down conversions here…last year they converted 80% of their 4th-downs).

The Bills were the better team overall, but not by a wide margin…and this just got away from them. The Bills looked like a good team, but not a Super Bowl team.

The Steelers look like a wild card team no one wants to play because they have a defense to go with savvy Ben to cause trouble, but they are so sloppy on offense at times…it can’t be a consistent winning team/Super Bowl threat. But this Steelers team is better than I thought because the defense is much better than I thought.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- My top priority here was to make sure we didn’t have any Josh Allen (31-51 for 270 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 9-44-0) problems here, and I’m pleased to say this wasn’t a Josh Allen problem loss.

However, I will say Allen didn’t look as sharp as his best runs last season. The Steelers played to contain Allen/the long passing game and just rushed 3-4 guys…and it worked. Allen was reduced to dinking and dunking a bunch. I think the issue was more – this is a really good Steelers defense again. I projected it wrong.

The Steelers had a great plan and has nice defensive talent (that Joe Schobert trade was brilliant), and they just executed better than Buffalo. There were a few near miss moments that could’ve seen Buffalo jump out bigger and change the course of this game, but the Bills just didn’t hit the big plays available and flopped on several 3rd & 4th-downs. Eventually, they ran out of time. Allen was solid but not his best…but not a real worry either.

Allen has at MIA then vs. WSH…this might be an underwhelming start for Allen to FF 2021. If you get past Week 3 with him, then it’s much smoother sailing ahead.

 -- My other priority in this tape study was to see how Najee Harris (16-45-0, 1-4-0/3) looked. From the live watch, I thought he looked pretty bad. A lot of low yardage runs, too many caught in the backfield moments, and he looked like a giraffe on roller skates on two of his 3 targets. We were supposed to see smooth passing game weapon Najee, but he looks incredibly unsmooth in the passing game so far…going back to the preseason.

The one thing Najee started to show here is – he’s a good enough straight-ahead runner. Najee trying to kick interior runs outside is death. Najee going out for passes has looked foolish. But Najee getting a handoff straight up the middle looks really good. This is the first pro work where I saw Najee running the interior with confidence/authority. It took him about a half to get his sea legs, and then he started to make a bit of a difference pounding the ball on-and-off.

Hosting LV and CIN the next two weeks could get him a breakout performance (stat tally wise). He just has to stay straight and not try to do things involving sharp agility, because he has little/none.

 -- Zack Moss (DNP) was a healthy scratch, further confirming this backfield is all Devin Singletary’s (11-72-0, 3-8-0/5) now. But the Bills love to pass and only run occasionally to keep defenses honest. Allen took several purposeful runs and usually does. Unfortunately for Singletary, and his FF owners, this type of game/stat line is about as good as it gets for the Bills lead back.

 -- The Steelers receivers…

Diontae Johnson ((5-36-1/10) gave you all his classic hits here. In this game, you got:

*Mishandles easy passes and makes you wonder if he’s got that hands issue again.

*Then makes a ‘wow’ catch and brings you back to him.

*Got hit on a crossing route and laid on the field for a bit, writhing in pain until he limped off, and you’re thinking he’s a puss…but then a series later he’s back out there and you thank the Lord your God for it.

*Looks sometimes shaky all game, but then leads the team in targets and catches, and lands a TD.

Chase Claypool (3-45-0/5, 1-25-0) is so clearly the best WR on the team…one of, if not thee most talented WR in the league – and yet they still treat him like a side salad and not the featured entrée. But I have a funny feeling Ben is going to keep shifting Claypool, and it will come out of Diontae’s account…and make us turn on Diontae for FF. Just a hunch.

Claypool is such a majestic stallion of a WR…he’s going to be a star; I just don’t know when he crosses into that threshold. But I know it’s going to happen. He’s way too good to be a side piece.

Let me make a pitch here: Claypool was hot early 2020, right out of the gates, but then was benched by Tomlin 2nd-half (to avoid a rookie wall for some stupid reason) and he FF-fizzled to the finish. He was a mid-round redraft WR valuation this year…people had hope but weren’t craving it in the summer of 2021…they didn’t have to pay too heavy a price for it in redraft. Now, he has an opening week ‘meh’ FF result…mostly due to Buffalo’s defense, but somewhat that Diontae is still the #1 look for Ben.

Claypool is flying a little under the radar. He is ‘gettable’ in most cases – in Dynasty or redraft. You should try and land him before people get excited again (for those who don’t already own him). There are a lot of cute WRs of the moment…Mike Williams, Antonio Brown, etc. There are all the hype guys like Lamb-Jeudy, Godwin, DJ Moore – that aren’t near as talented but have better ‘pub’/standing in the FF community. All I know is – there will be a day when Chase Claypool is discussed as the single best WR in FF. He’s the better Julio Jones. He’s built like a god among men and is a really good WR…still learning his craft. His leaping catch in this game…and his simple 25-yard jet sweep was just a glimpse at his greatness.

Someday soon, Ben or Tomlin are going to shift away from heavy Diontae and move it onto Claypool as the nuclear bomb weapon that leads the way – you can acquire that dirty bomb for a fraction of what it will cost soon…and it will be off the market. There’s a window right here, right now…but I can’t promise you the bomb goes off (in a good way) next week or Week 4-5…it’s going to be good until it goes great then nuclear.

There may be no better ‘buy low’ right now in all formats. He will change your Dynasty WR group for the next 5-7 years. And for the price today…it’s amazing value to not overpay for but pay going rates or possibly less. Flip something hot of the moment in a deal to secure the future.

Only Claypool’s off-field immaturity, a la JuJu, can hold him back from going to ‘great’/elite.

Eventually, Pat Freiermuth (1-24-0/1) is going to be a TE1 (if Ben holds up/hangs around) – whether it shows signs 2nd-half of 2021, or it’s in 2022. He’s moving well and just seems like he knows what he’s doing. I thought he would be an average/good NFL TE…but he is showing little mini signs of being more. It’s important he has a decent QB, not Dwayne Haskins, to ascend with…like it is for all TEs.

 -- Chase Claypool is a future star for sure, but the Steelers have another player that might be a naturally gifted future star on the other side of the ball – OLB/DE Alex Highsmith (5 tackles, 1 QB hit). Highsmith was so quick off the snap; he was drawing holding calls all over…and was held many other times that was not called. Who needs Bud Dupree?

I think Highsmith might have a chance at 10+ sacks this season.

 -- The Steelers defense is much better than I thought, as I previously stated. However, I still hate this schedule…

Week 2 = facing the hard to sack, solid Derek Carr

Week 3 = facing the savvy Joe Burrow

Week 4 = facing Aaron Rodgers at GB

Week 5 = facing a top O-Line with Teddy/DEN

Week 6 = facing Russell Wilson

Week 7 = BYE

Week 8 = facing a top O-Line with Cleveland.

Not a great opportunity/matchup the next 7 weeks.

 -- Buffalo’s defense is really good AND has a decent schedule ahead…

Week 2 = vs. Tua

Week 3 = vs. Heinicke

Week 4 = vs. Tyrod

Week 5 = at Mahomes…no good.

Week 6 = at Tennessee might be fine

Week 7 = BYE

*this post BYE first 6 weeks is awesome matchups for them too*

Week – vs. Tua

Week 9 = at JAX/Trevor

Week 10 = at NYJ/Z Wilson

Week 11 = vs. Wentz

Week 12 = at J Winston

Week 13 = vs. Mac Jones

Aside from Weeks 5 and 7, and 14 (Tampa) – you can run this defense every week otherwise.

Snap Counts of Interest:

64 = Singletary

10 = Breida

53 = JuJu

44 = Diontae

39 = Claypool

58 = Najee (100%)…no worries of a rookie wall here, I guess…

Ross Jacobs

FFM

15 September 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 1: Raiders 33, Ravens 27 (By Ross Jacobs)

What an absolutely crazy game. If you haven't already seen it, do yourself a favor and go watch this one. The NFL got the perfect opening weekend Monday night game here, a crazy thriller.

Everything started off innocuous enough. The Ravens seemed like they were going to go about business as usual. They took a lead and built it up to 14-0 as the Raiders attempted pass after pass to Darren Waller to no avail. It looked like a blowout was coming. But then Carr finally managed to connect on a few passes (to Waller) and Josh Jacobs scored from the 1 to make it 14-7. The Raiders got the ball back and snuck in a FG right before the half to cut the Raven lead to 4. 

Baltimore got the ball after half and quickly kicked a FG of their own to make it 17-10. The two teams traded defensive blows for a while but then a Lamar Jackson fumble set up the Raiders with a short field which they capitalized on to tie the game at 17. Baltimore would answer that score with an immediate TD drive of their own and at that point it felt like there was nothing Vegas could do to catch up. Baltimore had taken their best shot and come right back. But Carr and the Raiders didn't back down and landed a punch of their own with another TD drive capped off by a Waller TD to tie it back up. 

Baltimore responded with a FG to take the lead and with less than a minute left it looked like a long shot for Vegas to recover yet again. But Bryan Edwards finally came through with a couple of huge catches over the middle and Daniel Carlson booted a 55 yard FG to send it to OT. 

The Raiders got the ball to start overtime and after Edwards caught a long pass it appeared that he had scored a TD to win the game, but the booth ruled him down at the 1 and the game was back on. Carr was stuffed on a QB sneak and then a false start backed the Raiders up to 2nd and goal. Two plays later Carr was under pressure and threw a bullet to Willie Snead that ricocheted off his hands and was intercepted by the Ravens, but Lamar promptly fumbled the ball back to the Raiders who then looked like they were ready to kick an early FG to win the game. Unfortunately they took a delay of game penalty and so lined up for another play. Carr found Zay Jones running wide open to the endzone and the Raiders took the win.

The Ravens looked like the superior team overall, and they had multiple chances to slam the door on the Raiders, but they kept mucking around with Murray, letting Waller catch pass after pass, and the two fumbles ultimately did them in. It was really just shitty coaching that lost them this game, nothing that the players did wrong. Credit to the Raiders though, they were never afraid and both units kept firing despite taking body blows from the Ravens over and over. They played tough, relentless football and never quit. It was quite the gutsy performance. Is there hope for the Raiders defense? Maybe. But Baltimore did score 27 points on them and they weren't even playing that well. Ultimately I expect the Raiders overall lack of talent will hold them back. I don't see a team with enough firepower to really challenge the Chiefs or Chargers in this division, but they are definitely not a cakewalk and should be a tough out all year. 

The Ravens I expect to bounce back. I'm not sure what the coaches were doing here, but this staff usually doesn't pull stupid moves like this. They should bounce back to normal and compete with the Browns and Steelers for the North title. Not sure they are quite good enough but they'll be in the playoff mix.

There's a lot to talk about here, so buckle up.

--Fantasy Notes

We have to start with the player RC and I were pumping up all week long, Ty'Son Williams (9-65-1, 3-29-0/4). If you started Ty'Son you were probably pretty happy about the result. He finished with 18.4 points in ppr which is more than a solid day. However, it could/should have been so much better. It was incredibly frustrating to watch as Ty'Son was clearly the best RB the Ravens had available, and yet they really didn't give him the ball the way I thought they would. 

Nine carries isn't bad but he should have been in the double digits easily and possibly pushing towards 20 carries. Instead, the Ravens chose to shy away from their normal ground game and try to let Lamar throw more while simultaneously wasting carries on Latavius Murray (10-28-1) and Trenton Cannon (2-5-0). Anyone could see that both those guys were far inferior options to Ty'Son and yet the Ravens staff seemed to disagree. Even though Ty'Son was in for 50% of the snaps, he was out-carried by Murray (he probably wouldn't have been but he got shaken up at one point and had to leave the game for a series or two). Either way it was not the vote of confidence I was looking for and I am a bit more worried about his role moving forward even though the events that transpired should have been a huge wake up call for this staff. We're going to have to monitor this situation closely. 

Ty'Son should still be the theoretical lead back because Murray has nothing left, but I don't think we can just assume that especially after the nonsensical decisions this coaching staff made in this game. Let's see what happens against a nice matchup with the Chiefs. This could be the spot where Ty'Son really puts a stamp on this backfield and claims it for his own, or it could be where he falls back into a rotation with guys that shouldn't even be on an active roster. Make no mistake, Ty'Son is by far the best back on the roster and the Ravens should be giving him 15+ carries a game. That is still on the table and I think it's possible we see Ty'Son really take off from here.

In case you haven't gotten the point yet, Latavius Murray is a bum at this point with no juice left in him and should not be rostered.

Lamar Jackson (19-30 for 235 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 12-86-0) had a solid enough day for fantasy, but just happened to not score more than 1 TD and so it felt a little muted. Don't worry about him. He played as well as I've ever seen him despite being under quite a bit of pressure from the Raiders front seven.

You know who is a sneaky good ppr fantasy play whenever he's healthy? Marquise Brown (6-69-1/6, 1-5-0). In his last 7 games he's scored 7 TD's to go along with 26 catches for 407 yards, 15.5 ppg in ppr. That's top back end WR1 material. He doesn't wow with huge yardage totals, but he doesn't need to when he's piling up TD's.

Mark Andrews (3-20-0/5) had a quiet day, but he's still a TE1 all day. Sometimes you just have days like this.

In other news, Sammy Watkins (4-96-0/8) reappeared and caught one pass per million dollars he'll make this year. This guy must have taken sales lessons from Sam Bradford because he has duped more teams into wasting money on him than nearly anyone else I can think of. He looked shockingly slow to me here, like barely running away from KJ Wright slow. Most of his yards came on one chunk play where he got matched up with a LB because Vegas wasn't worried about him at all. I'm honestly not sure how he even got 8 targets or played 56 snaps. It did not feel like that much watching the game. Seems like the team is going to force him the ball though, so I guess you can use him if you're desperate. I'm not. Counting on Watkins is a recipe for disaster. You've been warned.

Devin Duvernay (1-6-0/2) was running as the #3 receiver here, but he was barely involved and will be back on the bench as soon as the other Baltimore receivers are healthy. Hate that he's buried like this but that's the reality.

Let's talk about the Raiders for a moment, because I'm sure everyone wants to hear about how Darren Waller (10-105-1/19) is going to get 300 targets this year. You can't make this crap up. The man got 19 targets last and the worst part is the Ravens coaching staff acted like they had no idea who he was even though every other person on the planet knew the Raiders were going to throw to him literally every play. It was one of the most baffling coaching decisions I've ever seen. 

Early in the game the Ravens had their all-world corner Marlon Humphrey (9 tackles, 1 pd) on him as well as a safety or two. Carr was literally throwing the ball into triple coverage trying to force it to Waller and of course it wasn't working. That's how the Ravens took the lead. Then, inexplicably, they moved Humphrey over to guard Hunter %*&#!@ Renfrow (6-70-0/9) and in the most obvious turn of events ever, Waller started beating the crap out of them. Like the rest of the world I'm completely baffled as to why this decision was made and who in the world thought it was a good idea. That move alone cost the Ravens this game. Carr couldn't connect on anything until Waller was suddenly set free to do as he pleased. Regardless, don't think that other coaching staffs will be this stupid every week. Waller is still going to get a ton of targets, but it shouldn't be this out of control every week. Of course, in his last 6 games now he has 74 targets (12.3 per game) for 53 catches for 759 yards and 5 TD's (26.5 ppg). Maybe I'm the fool for betting against this trend...

With Waller being the first, second, and third reads for Derek Carr (34-56 for 435 yards, 2 TD/1 INT) that left scraps for the WR's. Hunter Renfrow looks like the most important receiver of the bunch and he led the way with 6 catches for 70 yards despite playing fewer snaps than Edwards and Ruggs. Apparently he's the most amazing thing ever because the Ravens deemed him more worthy of Humphrey's attention than Waller. I digress. Renfrow is the latest iteration of your classic slot receiver (Amendola, Edelman, Beasley, etc). Beasley is probably the closest comparison. So long as he's getting targeted like this he's usable in a pinch as a WR3 in ppr.

2nd year receiver Bryan Edwards (4-81-0/5), who I have been touting all off-season, would finish with the 2nd most yards but was tied for 3rd in targets and didn't get his first catch until literally the last minute of the game before OT. He was the guy that made two clutch catches to get the tying FG and very nearly won the Raiders the game outright on their first drive in OT. He was called down just inches short though and lost the score. What to do with him? If you have him as a lottery ticket I would hold for the moment. You saw flashes of what he can do here. He just needs more targets. Waller shouldn't soak up half the attempts every week, so you'd think Edwards is bound to get a chance moving forward especially considering his heroics here. If you want to drop him though I can't say I'd blame you. There's an upside hiding here that's probably not available on your waiver wire though. Note that he played 70% of the snaps here. The team wants to get him involved. They just have to do it.

Regardless of what happens with Edwards, he's still 10x the receiver that Henry Ruggs (2-46-0/5) is. Ruggs got nearly all his yards on one catch where he was left wide open. He's outright terrible and shouldn't be anywhere near your leagues including in dynasty.

Josh Jacobs (10-34-2, 1-6-0/2) was the lead RB and had a good fantasy day with the 2 TD's but he looks sluggish and his offensive line isn't doing him any favors. He's also running in a near 50-50 split with Kenyan Drake (6-11-0, 5-59-0/5) who is getting more passing game work. Right now I'd much rather have Drake. He's the 3rd down and 2-minute back but is also mixing in on early downs at times. He's getting involved and with Carr throwing so many dump passes it's a useful role. He doesn't have to worry about the weak line because so much of his work is coming out in space in the passing game with teams completely focused on stopping Waller. He'll be more usable than Jacobs in most weeks where Jacobs isn't getting a TD.

--IDP Notes

The Raiders defense still isn't very good, but they were not afraid of the Ravens here and played with great energy and aggressiveness all game. Credit to them for not rolling over. I still don't think they are very good but they might be a tougher out than I originally expected.

Maxx Crosby (6 tackles, 2 sacks) was the standout performer here. He was a handful all night and just kept coming for Lamar. Not the greatest pass rusher ever, but he's tough, gives great effort, and is as relentless as they come.Three Raiders (Denzel Perryman, Johnathan Abram, and Corey Littleton) all racked up 10 tackles apiece but honestly none of them really stood out. There tend to be higher tackle numbers against the Ravens because they run so much. I doubt it continues at that pace for any of them.

A couple of rookie defenders for Vegas made their debut here. Safety Trevon Moehrig (5 tackles) is the starting free safety and played every snap. He looked ok but definitely not the best safety in his class. Don't see any special traits there. CB Nate Hobbs (2 tackles) played 50% of the snaps here and his role is likely to grow as the season goes on. He looks like a veteran out there, not a great one but just he moves around confidently and seems to know what he's doing. Solid addition to the defense.

I already covered Marlon Humphrey and how phenomenal he is, but I have to give credit to Patrick Queen (9 tackles, 1 sack) as well. He was a guy RC and I weren't high on in the 2020 draft, but he's really developed into a good all-around LB. The guy can cover, play the run, blitz, he has great range...he's a good player. He still hesitates a little too much at times, but that's honestly nitpicking. He's a fine player and a good start in IDP leagues.

I continue to see absolutely nothing from Jayson Oweh (2 tackles, 1 sack). His sack was a coverage sack plain and simple, nothing that Oweh did. This guy is supposed to be an athletic marvel but it just is not showing up right now. We should be seeing this guy exploding off the ball and giving blockers fits but he doesn't even show flashes of it, just plain old rush the passer like any other guy. Not a fan at all.

--Snap Counts of Interest

57 = Bryan Edwards

56 = Henry Ruggs

47 = Hunter Renfrow

45 = Josh Jacobs

41 = Kenyan Drake

56 = Sammy Watkins

47 = Marquise Brown

39 = Devin Duvernay

35 = Ty'Son Williams

21 = Latavius Murray