- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 4: Bills 40, Texans 0
I mean, what do you want me to say here? A great team played a bad team and beat the pants off of them. I have nothing particularly clever or insightful to add about this one. I will say I thought Houston fought extremely hard given the circumstances. They could have easily rolled over and died, but they kept coming after Buffalo.
Houston just isn't talented enough to compete right now, but I've been quite impressed with their performance these first 4 games considering the state of the franchise over the last year or two. We'll see how long that energy stays high when the losses start to mount though.
Just another ho hum beatdown by the Bills. They aren't the most talented team top to bottom, but they are so disciplined and well coached. It's no secret that they'll be in the mix for the top seed in the AFC and a Superbowl favorite. They have a really nice schedule the rest of the way, but a win over the Chiefs this week would be massive for their chances at the top seed and a huge blow to the Chiefs who are falling behind in the AFC West race.
Fantasy Notes
--It's been a slow-ish start for Josh Allen (20-30 for 248 yards, 2 TD/1 INT, 6-41-0) in the fantasy department because they've mostly been crushing teams every week and thus running out the block late in the game, but I have no concerns about him and would even advise people to look at him as a buy-low candidate. He just missed out on a couple of rushing TD's to pad his stats here. They will come. The schedule is a dream, and I expect Allen to finish as a top 3-5 QB by year's end.
--The only knock I have on the way this Buffalo team is run is their baffling RB usage. You cannot watch Devin Singletary (14-79-0, 1-7-0/1) and Zach Moss (14-61-1) on the same field and tell me that Moss is better than Singletary. It's no contest. Singletary looks fantastic, quick and fast, while Moss looks like his typical James Conner-esque self. He's powerful but that's literally it. He needs perfect blocking or else he's falling down for 1-2 yards. This should be a backfield dominated by Singletary, but McDermott thinks otherwise, and so for fantasy we are stuck with a frustrating split, and one where the lesser talented player is getting all the TD's. I don't like it, but Moss is the guy to own out of the two because he gets the goalline opportunities. I wouldn't want either ideally though.
--Another week, another somewhat quiet event for Stefon Diggs (7-114-0/11). Yes, he got 100 yards, but the TD's haven't come yet and thus he's flying a little under the radar. He's still difficult to trade for after last year's breakout, but you could possibly pry him away with the right deal. He's still a WR1 all day.
--I've seen some enthusiasm for Dawson Knox (5-37-2/8) this week because people are dying at TE, and I can't argue against it. His snaps and usage rate have really jumped in recent weeks, and Josh Allen is looking for him often around the endzone because he's a big, reliable target. Looks like another year of lower catches and yards for Knox but will be fantasy useful because he catches 10 TDs.
--Davis Mills (11-21 for 87 yards, 0 TD/4 INT) took an absolute beating here...but he didn't look as bad as I was expecting. A large part of this is just that the Bills are far more talented as a team than this pathetic Houston roster and Mills was just in way over his head. But after watching it back I was impressed with how Mills handled the pressure. He was hanging in the pocket while taking a pounding and was trying to make a play, but the Bills were just suffocating on defense. It should also be noted that at least 2 of his INT's were not his fault. One ricocheted off a receiver's hands to a defender and another was batted into the air at the line and again went straight to a defender.
Overall, Mills still isn't that talented a QB, but he's not as bad as he looked here. He's got a level of poise and enough arm talent to make it as a backup, but he belongs on the bench and not starting, certainly against one of the league's best defenses.
--The only other player you could even think of using from Houston is Brandin Cooks (5-47-0/7), but he really needs Tyrod Taylor back. I would lump him in, maybe a step or so behind, Michael Pittman and Kenny Golladay as WR1.5-2's hiding in plain sight. You could probably get him much cheaper than what he's worth if you need WR help.
IDP Notes
--Has RC mentioned how good Desmond King (9 tackles, 1 tfl) is? Because he's pretty good.
Snap Counts of Interest
58 = Dawson Knox
53 = Stefon Diggs
51 = Emmanuel Sanders
36 = Cole Beasley
40 = Zach Moss
32 = Devin Singletary
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 4: Jets 27, Titans 24
In this tape study, I was hoping to see a nice step forward by the Jets…their first win, a come from behind gutty win. I like the energy of this Jets team…kudos to Robert Saleh. I want them to move forward.
Is that what I saw on tape? No. Not really.
It’s the same tape every week with the 2021 Jets…the only difference here was they won. They won because Zach Wilson hit a few big play bombs at the right time, and these weak Jets receivers actually caught the passes this time. It’s the same Wilson tape – Brett Favre at his worst (and sometimes best)…erratic, gambling, trying to make plays that are low probability QB play mixed with a really nice-looking defense. I said in my Robert Saleh new hire study – the 1st-time D-C hired, (former NFL player) Jeff Ulbrich, was the better man for the job. He’ll get a job next year with this stunning turnaround of the Jets defense.
The Jets are like playing a slot machine on offense…you’re going to lose overall, but occasionally you’ll pull the handle and win one and it’s sweet. The defense does their best to hold off the opposing offense getting constant drives with good field position (because the Jets O can’t sustain drives and has turnovers) – and they did that here again, shutting down the first three Titans’ drives to field goals and a 9-0 lead…that very easily could’ve been 17 or 21 to nothing right out of the gates. Had the Titans had their starting WRs, it might have been.
I will say, it’s fun to see this Jets team playing with passion – the defense is going 100mph and at all times, while the offense is not just throwing screens all day…Zach Wilson is trying to win the Super Bowl with every throw…to his detriment but you might as well lose in a blaze of glory, not padding your Comp. Pct. stats.
The Titans lost and fell to (2-2), but they’ll be fine. They were injured going into this and unlucky not to have won it easily anyway. The Titans could’ve really put some distance in the AFC South with a win, but they now let the Colts (1-3) have some life. Tennessee should still win the AFC South with 9-10 wins…and everyone else under .500.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The first thing to talk about here is -- that Jets defense. The media and FF analysts are now starting to wake up. We’ve been pointing out the change in the Jets D since Week 1 and projecting them as a matchup to worry about for your opposing WRs and TEs the past two weeks.
The Jets defense has allowed just 2 passing TDs…the lowest in the league.
They are # 5 in sacks so far this season.
They are #2/best in 3rd-down conversions allowed (28.6%).
They are #4 in red zone TDs allowed per trip…a whisker away from #1/best.
Their offense is giving them no help in support…the Jets D is carrying this team. Keeping them in games.
Week 5 they face a weak Atlanta offense missing its #1 WR. Should be a decent FF opportunity for this DST.
Side note: The one flaw to attack on this aggressive Jets defense is the offense using their aggression against them in the form of screen passes/easy throws to the RBs. The Jets have allowed the 2nd-most targets and catches per game to RBs, and the most receiving yards per game to opposing RB groups.
Thus…Jeremy McNichols (8-74-0/12) had a big day as a receiver here.
Thus…our lofty projections on Cordarrelle Patterson all week for Week 5.
-- Jamison Crowder (7-61-1/9) made his 2021 debut here, and it didn’t look great but it was OK. Crowder is a very average WR getting pushed on the Jets for reasons I do not fully understand…one of them is because of how pathetic the Jets WR group has been the last two years.
I guess this is going to work OK going forward because Corey Davis is a terrible #1 WR and Denzel Mims is buried in deep space somewhere not hardly seeing the field, plus they have the worst TE depth chart in football. Wilson has to throw to somebody.
-- The best-looking WR in this game, hands down, was Josh Reynolds (6-59-0/9) …not even close…in a mild shock to me because I thought he was being buried by the Titans coaching staff – for a lingering injury, then some nonsense about him not playing special teams well (which he shouldn’t even be working special teams). He had to play here due to all the WR injuries and he was CLEARLY the best WR on the field between these two teams. I knew he was good, but that’s the best I’ve seen him look.
He’ll likely go back to being buried as A.J. and Julio return, but if Julio doesn’t return…maybe Reynolds can make a statement. He had a very good game here.
-- Zach Wilson (21-34 for 297 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT) is making baby step progress every week. He took more checkdowns in this game and landed some of his deep ball shots, but he is still taking to many unnecessary chances downfield…it’s both admirable (he’s going for the jugular not throwing right into triple coverage like they aren’t there) and maddening (because it’s such low probability stuff). He’s such a talent. I wonder if this would have been what Pat Mahomes would’ve been like if thrown into the fire right away as a rookie with crap WRs and no offensive coaching experience anywhere near him?
His one INT was a throw to Corey Davis, who slipped on his break/route and left the ball clean through to the trailing DB. Not Wilson’s fault.
On the other side of the field, watching Ryan Tannehill (30-49 for 298 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) play – he is so good. He’s really developed into one of the best QBs in the NFL. He’s a pleasure to watch now. I’ve learned to appreciate him, not question him.
And in the battle of ‘was it Brady or Belichick?’ = the answer was ‘Brady’ all along.
In the battle of ‘was it Tanny vs. silver-spoon O-C Arthur Smith?’ = the answer was CLEARLY Tannehill. Arthur Smith is a flaming bust head coach who got lucky to be with Tannehill and Derrick Henry.
-- John Franklin-Myers (4 tackles, 1 sack, 2 TFLs, 3 QB hits) had himself a game, and then got a contract extension this week.
Franklin-Myers is averaging 3.8 tackles, 0.67 sacks per game this season to date.
He looks good to me, but I’m never like ‘Wow, what a beast’. He’s good.
Snap Counts of Interest:
50 = Corey Davis
38 = Crowder
36 = K Cole
10 = Mims
09 = Berrios
31 = M Carter
20 = Ty J
11 = T Coleman
81 = Westbrook-Ikhine
78 = J Reynolds
66 = Ch Rogers
25 = Batson
- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 4: Buccaneers 19, Patriots 17
The much ballyhooed reunion between Tom Brady and Bill Belichick did not go the way most people expected. All week there was talk that Tom was going to try and roll up 50 points on the Patriots, that the Patriots couldn't hang with the better team, etc etc.
Well, turns out they can do more than hang with them. The Patriots controlled this game for the most part and darn near pulled off the win. The two teams looked even, hard as that is to believe.
The Patriots had a fantastic game plan in place that seemed to frustrate Brady all night. He was off his game and struggled to even complete a pass at times. Eventually Brady was forced to just hand the ball off to Fournette over and over to try and grind out the win, and the Patriots still had a chance on a last second drive but they missed a long FG attempt in the pouring rain as time expired.
The Buccaneers got the win, but Belichick arguably got a notch in his belt here in the eternal debate about who mattered more to the Patriot dynasty, him or Brady.
Tampa moves to 3-1. Week 1, the Bucs hung on versus a feisty Dallas team that suddenly looks very good. They tussled with a bad Falcons team for 3.5 quarters before a couple of pick sixes put the game away. They got smoked by the Rams, and now they just struggled with an average Patriots team. The offense is good, coming in at 5th in points (with some turnover help) and 7th in yards. The defense is not so good. They are 23rd in points allowed and 20th in yards allowed with most of that coming through the air. This is still pretty much the same team that won the Superbowl last year, but now they are banged up in the secondary and a bit better on offense. Yes, they won the Superbowl, but they also were a bit shaky through the regular season and didn't go into the playoffs as a favorite. They were beneficiaries of a rather weak schedule last year, and they have another easy schedule this year. I do expect their record to be very good at the end, but I'm not sure this team is as strong a contender as we think they are.
The Patriots, meanwhile, are 1-3 with their only win coming over the Jets. They did fight the Bucs well here, but it doesn't look like they have the firepower to really compete. They are a bottom 8 team on offense and a top 8 team on defense (by the stats, I'm skeptical though as they've played 3 bad QBs so far). They should be a tough out most weeks for a lot of better teams as they play strong defense and a ball control offense, but it's hard to win games when you don't score points. I definitely overestimated this team to start the year. They are going to struggle to get to .500.
Fantasy Notes
--Mac Jones (31-40 for 275, 2 TD/1 INT) is getting a lot of props in the media for being not-terrible, but being a game manager doesn't really impress me. All he's doing is throwing curl routes all day. Who cares what his completion percentage is when the team can't even score 20 points? It's a good start I guess. There's hope for him 3-4 years down the road to develop into more of a downfield passer, but I see nothing today that gets me excited about his prospects.
--Damien Harris (4-(-4)-0, 2-30-0/2) had an awful day unsurprisingly. It's still really hard to run on Tampa. He should be ok moving forward, but note that New England started to get Brandon Bolden (1-0-0, 6-51-0/6) more involved here although that may have been more as the James White replacement. If Bolden is taking over for White instead of JJ Taylor, then he may be useful for ppr moving forward as Mac loves his dump passes.
--Jakobi Meyers (8-70-0/12) is averaging over 10 targets a game for around 7 catches and 60 yards or so. He also has not caught a TD in his professional career despite bringing in 112 passes for 1,334 yards over three years. If he ever does start catching TD's he could find himself going from solid ppr WR2-2.5 to maybe a WR1.5. He's safe points if you need them.
--Leonard Fournette (20-91-0, 3-47-0/5) took the bulk of the carries over Ronald Jones here. I'm not sure if we can count on that going forward (I would probably bet against it), but it is something to monitor as Fournette could likely be pried away from his owner without too many problems. He could be a sneaky buy low on here provided we know he's going to be “the guy.” I'm still in wait and see mode though.
--Good luck trying to predict which two receivers Brady is going to pepper each game. Seems like it's matchup dependent, but I have no idea what the pattern is. Here's how they stack up for the season:
Mike Evans: 37 targets (9.25/g), 23 catches (5.75/g), 280 yards (70/g), 2 TD's (0.5/g) = 15.75 ppg
Chris Godwin: 30 targets (7.5/g), 22 catches (5.5/g), 296 yards (74/g), 2 TD's (0.5/g) = 15.9 ppg
Antonio Brown: 21 targets (7.0/g), 13 catches (4.3/g), 201 yards (67/g), 1 TD (0.25/g) = 13.0 ppg
I'm not even sure those numbers reflect the true balance either as Brown has missed one game and had another where he was almost completely unused for whatever reason. All three guys are getting good work for fantasy, but given the cost AB has arguably been the most valuable as he was a late round pick while the other two went much higher. It seems like they can all coexist, but it will get really interesting if one of the three gets hurt. It doesn't hurt that Gronk has been out with injuries the last couple games either.
A final note about the receivers: we expected Evans to be the primary deep ball guy, but the numbers and my eyes both say that when Brady wants a big play down the field he's actually looking to Brown for it. I'm not sure if that's useful to know or not, but it's something to keep in mind.
--Since starting the year with 9 TD's in his first two games, Tom Brady (22-43 for 269, 0 TD/0 INT) has only managed 1 in his last two games, and he has another tough passing matchup against the Dolphins this week. They have been terrible against the run however, so we could see another muted game from Tom. He's QB4 through four games.
IDP Notes
--Richard Sherman (7 tackles) is old and just signed with the Buccaneers this week, and yet with almost no practice or time to learn the scheme, he waltzed right in and did just fine. Tell me again how much practice and the playbook matters.
--For those of you keeping track, Devin White (5 tackles) now has 28 tackles on the year, an average of 7 per game, no sacks, no INT's, no FF's, and only a single PD. Where is this amazing playmaking LB I heard so much about last year? Not so easy to put up numbers when you don't have an elite defense around to let you run free to the ball. I'm going to keep hammering this point until I'm blue in the face. White is a good athlete and decent LB, but he is NOT elite and needs a ton of help to be at his best. Lavonte David is the superior linebacker on this team.
Snap Counts of Interest
73 = Godwin
69 = Evans
40 = Brown
64 = Fournette
13 = Ronald Jones
36 = Damien Harris
19 = Brandon Bolden
4 = JJ Taylor
- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 4: Chiefs 42, Eagles 30
You wouldn't know it from the final score, but the Eagles hung in this game for a lot longer than many expected. They were going toe to toe with the Chiefs early on, trading scoring blows until the end of the first half.
At halftime the Chiefs only led 21-13, and the Eagles would cut that lead to 5 with a 3rd quarter field goal. It wasn't until the end of the 3rd quarter that the Chiefs would score again to extend their lead, but Philly once again answered right back with a TD of their own to make the game 28-23. With 8 minutes left in the game the ending was still in doubt. The Chiefs would then score back to back TD's to put the game out of reach for the Eagles.
It was a 12 point win for the Chiefs, and many people will take this as a sign that everything is fine and the team is still the betting favorites to win the Superbowl. I very much disagree. The Chiefs are still a good team, don't get me wrong. So long as they have Patrick Mahomes they have a chance to win every game. But we've watched this team scrape by the Browns, lose a lead against a banged up Ravens squad, get thumped by the upstart Chargers, and now have to scrap with the Eagles for 3.5 quarters. This is no longer a dominant team. They have a high powered offense, but the defense is beyond poor.
Think of them like the old Saints teams where Drew Brees was going to score 30-35 points and hope the defense could keep the opponent under 30. The schedule isn't particularly difficult so they should get to 11-12-13 wins, but it's no longer a lock that they will win their own division. If they lose to the Chargers in December they are very likely to end up with a Wildcard into the playoffs which robs them of the home field advantage they've enjoyed for years.
The Eagles are now 1-3, but probably should be 2-2 except for a lot of dumb mistakes and bad luck against the 49'ers. They aren't a good team exactly, but I don't think they are among the league's worst either. The defense has a little bite to it now led by the DPOY level play of Javon Hargrave, and the offense is good enough with Jalen Hurts.
The Philly defense has gotten thumped the last two weeks for 83 points, but that was against two of the best offenses in the league and the Cowboys also had a pick 6 thrown in. They are 24th in points per game but 14th in yards per game, and I'd say they are closer to league average than league worst. The offense, meanwhile, is 17th in points per game but 9th in yards (lots of garbage time). Again, they are probably closer to average than top 10, but there is potential for more scoring if they could get their offensive line healthy and stop shooting themselves in the foot with stupid penalties. Do not sleep on this team. They really aren't that bad.
Fantasy Notes
--Still don't believe in Jalen Hurts (32-48 for 387 yards, 2 TD/0 INT, 8-47-0)? You should. He's QB3 on the season so far behind only Patrick Mahomes and Kyler Murray. He's completing 66% of his passes for 292 yds/g, 1.75 TD's/g, 0.5 INT's/g, 56.5 rush yds/g, and 0.5 rush TD's/g. His ceiling is incredibly high, but his floor is also very high every week because of his incredible rushing numbers. Do not fear starting him ever.
--I cannot stop singing the praises of DeVonta Smith (7-122-0/10) either. He has been one of my favorite players to watch over the last year going back to his final college season, and I'm thoroughly enjoying watching him succeed despite so many analysts saying he wouldn't because 1. “he's too skinny” or 2. “Hurts isn't a good passer.” Whoops.
--RC texted me before the game started that he had a funny feeling Kenneth Gainwell (3-31-1, 6-58-0/8) was going to have a big game (I replied back that I had the same feeling about DeVonta) and wouldn't you know it, Gainwell is heavily involved and looks good doing it! Tip for newer subscribers: if RC gets an intuition about something but can't explain it, trust him anyways. He's not always right, but more often than not he is, and you will thank him for his insight afterwards.
This Gainwell breakout might be the last straw for Miles Sanders (7-13-0, 3-43-0/3). I'm not saying Sanders is a bad player, but what I am saying is you cannot really tell him and Gainwell apart on the field. There's no good reason why Sanders should dominate the touches at this point. Gainwell is going to be involved, and I particularly like that they have him working a lot as a WR, taking bubble/tunnell screens from out wide. It's a nice, safe throw and he is really good at them. If you're desperate at RB Gainwell is one of the best available options to try and get some cheap points, but don't expect more than RB3 work most weeks.
--I'm not even going to talk about Mahomes and Hill at this point. Anyone that subscribes to FFM knows those are our two most widely owned players thanks to RC browbeating us into grabbing them years ago (and picking them up every year in redraft even as most other analysts tried to tell you to fade them, that they were overpriced). These type games, from Hill especially, are why we tolerate the down weeks like last week. Because occasionally he just goes completely off and wins your matchup by himself.
--Two weeks ago I told everyone not to panic about Clyde Edwards-Helaire (14-102-0, 2-12-1/3). You're welcome. This week might be rough against a very good Buffalo run defense, but after that he's mostly golden. Yes, there will be dud weeks like there is with anyone not named McCaffrey, but I still maintain that CEH is a late RB1 or RB1.5 because of his role and the scoring opportunities of this offense. If they ever start giving him more goal line opportunities he could go even higher.
IDP Notes
--Yet another item RC was way ahead of the crowd on...Javon Hargrave (6 tackles, 1 sack) is playing out of his mind. He's averaging 6 tackles a game and 1.25 sacks a game so far. Defensive tackles not named Aaron Donald don't put up those kinds of numbers. Unbelievable performance by Hargrave so far. I hope he gets the recognition he deserves soon.
--I thought former Viking Eric Wilson (11 tackles, 1 pd) would lead the Eagles in tackles this year, and he's doing a great job, but it's actually Alex Singleton (9 tackles) that's leading the way with 38 so far. Guys like this are why you don't have to worry about getting Darius Leonard at LB in your IDP drafts. There are plenty of unheralded guys piling up tackle counts all over.
--You know who else is playing fantastic football and getting overlooked (as usual)? Daniel Sorensen (9 tackles). He's been an integral and valuable part of this defense for years, and yet it's Tyrann Mathieu that always seems to get the credit. Sorensen is the better safety by far and is on fire the last three games with 26 total tackles.
Snap Counts of Interest
68 = DeVonta Smith
52 = Jalen Reagor
43 = Quez Watkins
55 = Dallas Goedert
37 = Zach Ertz
47 = Miles Sanders
29 = Kenneth Gainwell
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 4: Bears 24, Lions 14
The Bears won this game, but it wasn’t a great win. The Lions aren’t very good…but Detroit was just as good if not better. Get this… The Lions had goal-to-go the first three drives of the game for them on offense and walked away with zero points. To end the game, trying to come back, they got down to goal to go again…and left with zero points. Nine total drives for Detroit…two TDs and 4 failed goal-to-go events.
Saying the Bears were lucky to win this game is an insult to the word ‘lucky’. This is a terrible Chicago team…one that should be (0-4) and firing it’s coach and GM, but they’ve gotten two lucky wins and everyone is safe…for now. The Bears will finish under .500 and people will be fired.
The Lions are (0-4), but they could be (2-2). Looking at their schedule ahead…it will be a long time before they win a game, probably. Although, they play tough every week and will probably surprise some team soon. However, their O-Line is falling apart due to injuries…and that’s been their one strength. A tailspin could be coming with a tough schedule ahead.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- David Montgomery (23-106-2) is expected out for 3-5 weeks, but I think that will be more on the 5+ weeks side. Damien Williams (8-55-1, 2-15-0/2), and he looks fine. It’s not a great O-Line to work behind but DW should work fine for Fantasy…looks like an RB2-3 that leans more RB2.
-- Another Justin Fields (11-17 for 209 yards, 0 TDs/1 INT) start where he does not look very good. He’s not ready yet, but Chicago is doing the right thing by pushing him as the starting QB…he needs to sink or swim. He’s probably going to sink in 2021…as the media/fans get what they want, and then it won’t work like a wonderful Disney tale…so, they’ll blame Matt Nagy for them not getting the outcomes they dreamed up, and that will get him fired.
-- There is one connection working for Fields…and that’s Darnell Mooney (5-125-0/7). Mooney is fantastic and had nearly half of Fields completed passes in this game…and some of them were highlight reel catches, or Fields would have really put up a stinker. There is something about Fields-to-Mooney, but I don’t trust the Fields part that much…but love the Mooney part. https://youtu.be/zqfRsu0L68c
-- The best WR for Fantasy, on either team, right now is Kalif Raymond (3-46-2/8). The Lions don’t have much at WR, so Raymond is the best weapon and seeing nice targets and production. He had two TDs in this game…it was almost 3…and nearly 4.
He was our ‘outta nowhere’ WR of the week last week, and well…that worked. But still the masses don’t believe. I’d start believing if you can, if you have room on your roster. Why are you holding Bryan Edwards and leaving Raymond sitting out there?
Raymond is the Lions very poor man’s Tyreek Hill…but more like Deonte Harris, only not as injury prone and in a higher volume passing game right now.
-- Jared Goff (24-38 for 299 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) is SO TERRIBLE…he’s averaging 275.0 passing yards and has 7 TDs/2 INTs and completing 68%+ of his passes so far this season…so bad…and doing so with junk WRs.
-- D’Andre Swift (8-16-0, 4-33-0/6) is flowing up and down according to game script and hot hand. He’s getting the touches. Some weeks it hits, others it’s a ‘meh’…like most RBs outside the big 5 or so top guys for FF. In PPR, Swift is an RB1 hopeful as we go on catch volume. But not a slam dunk RB1, just a speculative/hopeful one.
-- Just watching T.J. Hockenson (4-42-0/8) here…he’s so overrated. He’s randomly as good as the 6-20 guys fighting for the #6-20 best TEs in FF. He’s never going to be a top 3 Fantasy TE guy with this offense.
-- The Bears added Robert Quinn (5 tackles, 1 sack) in 2020 offseason, and I thought he was nearly done in the NFL after a humdrum 2020. Well…he’s got at least a half a sack in every game this season…4.5 sacks so far. He’s been more productive than Khalil Mack (1 tackles, 1 sack).
Snap Counts of Interest:
41 = Mooney
40 = A Rob
29 = Goodwin
16 = Byrd
62 = Cephus
53 = Raymond
51 = St Brown
20 = Trinity
52 = Swift
21 = Jamaal
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 4: Giants 27, Saints 21
With 12 minutes to go, the Saints pulled ahead 21-10 and it looked like the -7.0 underdog Giants were going down and not getting within the spread. Then the Giants stepped on the gas and scored 11 points to tie it at the end of regulation, then won the coin toss and stormed down the field and scored a TD…and that’s all she wrote.
Great win for the Giants. Honestly, this was an equally matched game…or I’d vote the Giants were the better team, not just this moment…just the better team in general. This was a gutsy, hard-fought win…a come from behind at a tough road place to play.
The Giants are now (1-3), and really they should be (2-2) with that lame ending to their Washington game/loss. They could be (3-1) had they not played flat against terrible Atlanta. I can’t tell if the Giants are just a decent but erratic team that had a great game here…or if they are really a good team/low-end playoff contender. They really are not a bad team. Not a great team, but not a joke either. If they go and beat Dallas this week – they’re right back into the NFC East race. Lose, and the season might be slipping away. It’s a Super Bowl for NYG this week. I have a funny feeling they are going to win it…just my gut. Not the data.
The Saints are good, but they have a major problem making them ‘mediocre’…and that’s Jameis Winston. He’s the worst starting QB in the NFL (not counting Davis Mills as a starter). If the Saints want to save the season, they need to swap out Winston…but I don’t know that Taysom Hill is any great answer either (better for FF). I would not be surprised if the Saints are the one who makes the bold move for Deshaun Watson.
If I were the Saints, I’d make this Watson move now in the light of the Urban Meyer stuff…it’s a little cover to do what nonsense Urban is doing – a lame apology and take a few public relation hits and move on. They aren’t winning a division or going to the playoffs with Jameis, so they might as well take the heat and try to sneak Watson through the front door.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- First things first…
And I can’t believe I’m typing this (for the 2nd or 3rd time this season), but I need to acknowledge it…
Daniel Jones (28-40 for 402 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT) looks damn good. Not great, but good. Not mediocre…or just ‘improved’…he looks bona fide the word ‘good’.
I’ve been against Dan Dimes from day one. Didn’t like his vision for reading the field. I thought he buckled under pressure too quickly and was prone to make terrible throws. And I wasn’t wrong with that assessment for his first two seasons. But there’s been a change in 2021.
Sam Darnold is still pretty weak, but he has improved…no longer horrible but maybe mediocre…Taylor Heinicke level acceptable work. This is not that with Daniel Jones. It’s not a full Josh Allen leave my jaw dropped on the floor turn either. This is Jones going from a ‘D’ student to a solid C+ student. The parallel that comes to mind…he’s turning into a Ryan Tannehill…good enough to win…good enough to put up numbers. Not just a game manager. But not elite either.
NFL QBs are getting better and better as the league becomes a 7-on-7 affair most weeks because QBs aren’t rocked by tacklers/sackers as much anymore and many drives are extended due to pass interference plays. It seems like every QB is throwing for 70%+ completion percentage now…where no one used to 5-10 years ago, or maybe one QB did and it was a big deal.
It was a shock in 2011 when Drew Brees completed 71.2% of his passes…a first of its kind.
Five years later, Brees would get there again…but so did Sam Bradford.
Brees did it again in 2017…the king of NFL accuracy.
Then Brees hit a high of 74.4% in 2018, while Kirk Cousins joined the 70% club in 2018.
A new landmark…three QBs, including Brees, hit 70%+ in 2019.
Three more did it again in 2020 (including Brees) in 2020.
This year, Brees is no longer playing but currently seven QBs are about 70% comp. pct. Led by Kyler Murray’s astounding 76.1%.
Soon enough, we will see the first 80% passer in the NFL at this rate.
The game is changing. The QBs are getting better and better, and you can’t touch them nor touch their receivers. And quick passing games and tunnel screens, etc., rule.
A rookie, Mac Jones, is at 70.0% comp. pct. today. Taylor Heinicke is surviving in the NFL. Sam Darnold is getting better. Daniel Jones has gotten a lot better. It doesn’t look like a fluke to me or a ‘system’ with Jones – it’s more that he has just gotten better/more comfortable and he’s off to the races.
Jones is still struggling a bit near the red zone or end zone, but outside of that he’s zinging the ball all over the field making tight window bullet throws over the middle like I’ve never seen him do before…plus he runs for FF points. What’s not to like here for FF?
-- Jones’s great connection is no longer with Sterling Shepard (DNP), although they’re fine…the sweet music is Jones-to-Kenny Golladay (6-116-0/7).
I’m a buyer of Golladay on the real cheap. He’s a WR2.5 like valuation because people don’t fully embrace the Jones turn, and don’t see Golladay as that guy yet (no TDs and WR3 numbers so far)…but Golladay is a beast and is definitely the Giants #1 WR. As their connection grows the TDs will come.
Golladay is a WR1-1.5 in WR2-2.5 hiding right now…he trades nowhere near his upside as Jones is emerging. Golladay and Michael Pittman are the two WRs laying in the weeds that could shoot to WR1-1.5 in PPR, but trade as ‘meh’ on the market right now.
-- Further helping Jones…Kadarius Toney (6-78-0/9) is a real talent. He’s a real head case too, but he’s definitely a physical specimen/talent.
I believe Toney will shoot the foot off of his career in time, but that doesn’t mean he can’t work before that. Derrius Guice was once a coveted, productive FF being.
I’ve been ‘shoulder shrug’ at the thought of Toney because Dan Jones didn’t excite me and Shepard-Golladay are the main targets and Darrius Slayton (DNP) is really good too. But with Shepard-Slayton out, Toney played 78% of the snaps and saw a team high 9 targets…on a lot of purposed throws and some just nice finds by Jones. Toney dropped a quick slant that might have been a catch-and-run 50+ yard TD to really light up his FF heat.
If Shepard and Slayton are out again this week…Toney is a legit Flex option Week 5. You might get a pop Week 5 and then trade off in redraft as Shepard returns.
I take back my dismissal of him to begin the week (I thought Shepard would be back, but now I don’t think so).
-- Who is not good at QB in this era of all QBs are good: Jameis Winston (17-23 for 226 yards, 1 TD/0 INTs). I would tell you if he was, just like I see Jones’s improvements and am willing to admit it despite me being anti-dimes prior.
Winston is god awful…good for little safe dump passes and he occasionally connects a bomb. He’s not a real QB. He is only better than Tua Tagovailoa among the on-purpose starting QBs in the NFL.
Winston’s lack of a medium game is killing an excellent-looking Marquez Callaway (2-74-0/2). Callaway’s FF doldrums are not on him, it’s Winston’s fault.
However, in Winston’s short passing game efforts…Deonte Harris (5-42-0/8) is emerging a little bit. Several designed tunnel screens for him and a near miss or two 30+ yarders. I walk away from this game wondering if Winston has finally discovered Deonte…and Deonte is built for FF. He’s the Saints store brand version of Tyreek Hill, but that ain’t so bad.
Harris is quicker and a better receiver than NYG speedster Josh Ross (3-77-1/4)…who will be an odd-man out when Shepard-Slayton returns.
-- Tony Jones got hurt and will be out for 4-6 weeks. Who is the new #2 RB? Good question.
I believe it is WR turned RB turned back to WR but now back at RB some, Ty Montgomery (2-7-0, 3-42-0/3). A few weird notes here…
1) Montgomery was getting his passing game as a pure WR here. Dwayne Washington (1-5-0, 1-6-0/1) was actually running as the #2 back at first. It wasn’t later into the game that Montgomery took a few carries when the Saints were trying to run the game out.
2) Montgomery is listed as an RB or RB/WR in most FF leagues, and he could be a discount version of Cordarrelle Patterson while Tony Jones is out – KR, WR turned RB who plays more WR but classified as an RB.
Montgomery could do nothing Week 5…or be a discount CP, as he was in small parts he was in for this game. He booked 50% of the snaps this game, most as a WR. He played one more snap than Deonte Harris did.
-- Side note: Part of the reason Daniel Jones is improving is his O-Line is improving. He has more time to work. With that, things are looking a bit better for Saquon Barkley (13-52-1, 5-74-1/6) – the numbers aren’t fully there yet, but I think Saquon is about to explode even with teams super-stacking him. Jones’s improvement and the suddenly abundant WR group (when Shepard and Slayton return with Golladay-Toney-Ross-Engram)…this is an on the rise offense that’s starting to get Barkley in place for TDs…big yards soon to follow.
You wanna buy a top 2-3 FF RB for the price of maybe a top 6-12 type of RB, maybe if the current owner is nervous about their season and you make the right offer – Saquon is the target…not Mixon or Edmonds or Moss or Gibson, etc. Shoot for a real deal shot like Barkley.
Snap Counts of Interest:
56 = Callaway
34 = Ty Montgomery
33 = Deonte H
17 = Stills
05 = Dw Washington
39 = Trautman
17 = R Griffin
58 = Golladay
49 = Toney
28 = Ross
19 = Board
43 = Engram
37 = Rudolph
- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 4: Chargers 28, Raiders 14
The final score says the game wasn't particularly close, and if you watched then you did see one moment where the Raiders had pulled the game to within 7 points and were attempting a field goal to make it closer. They would miss that field goal and the Chargers calmly and easily put the Raiders out of their misery on the next drive.
The Raiders may have fought hard and tried to claw their way back in it, but this game was not in doubt, and there is absolutely no doubt who is the better team.
Over the summer some of us put together our faux season projections. One team that RC was particularly high on was the Chargers. I understood why. Justin Herbert just had the greatest rookie season ever at QB. They smartly brought in multiple offensive linemen to protect him. The defense was getting back Derwin James. And the team was going to be managed by the hottest upcoming coach, the defensive guru Brandon Staley.
I liked what I saw. I thought they would be a fine team. I still had a couple of questions about Herbert but nothing too serious. Perhaps they would fare well in the projections this year despite being in the same division as Mahomes and the Chiefs. And then I saw their schedule. Washington, Dallas, Kansas City, Cleveland, Baltimore, New England...all teams I had projected to be potential playoff teams. It looked like a murderer's row. In my final projections I had the Chargers stumbling to a poor record through their first 8 games only to recover in the latter half of the schedule when they played mostly bad teams. They would finish 8-9 in my final projections, certainly not a terrible record, and shockingly make the playoffs.
Well, it turns out I was wrong about two things. First, this team is even better than I supposed. And two, that early schedule isn't nearly as bad as I projected. Cleveland and Baltimore are still a test, and there is a second date with the Chiefs still to go, but the Chargers are ready for it. They are going to come out of this early portion with a winning record, and they are going to mow through the second half of the schedule.
They can absolutely win the AFC West this year, faster than I would have thought possible. I believe they already are the best team in the division. RC, you were ahead of the curve on this one, but I'm jumping aboard the Charger express. Will they pull it off? I'm not sure. Their schedule isn't brutal, but it's still harder than Kansas City's. They will have to beat the Chiefs again for it, but they get them at home next time.
Oh and the Raiders played in this game too. They've played well so far, really fought hard, showed good energy. They aren't a bad team by any means. They'll likely try to stay in the race for a while, but I just don't think they are ready to hang with the two big boys in this division. Carr is a good QB but he's no Herbert or Mahomes, and that's ultimately going to hold them back.
Fantasy Notes
--Justin Herbert (25-38 for 222 yards, 3 TD/0 INT) carved up the Raiders in the first half and could have put up even bigger numbers but the team took their foot off the gas early in the 2nd half. He's only QB14 on the year so far, but I expect him to trend up as the year goes on. He could go nuclear in the second half of the season. Great buy low target right now if possible. The muted second half and his current ppg gives you just a crack to try and sneak him away from a desperate owner.
--It was a muted game for both of Herbert's top two receivers, Keenan Allen (7-36-0/11) and Mike Williams (1-11-0/4). Don't worry about them though. This won't be the typical flow of a game. Herbert was utilizing what was working and got up big early while they tried to sit on a lead. Williams especially is another fantastic buy low candidate but you have to move fast and don't let the owner know how badly you want him. Nobody else believes in Williams like FFM. They think he's going back to his inconsistent ways. He's not though. He's a bona fide WR1.5, possibly better. Don't fear this one weird game. Use it to your advantage. Fast fact: even including this dud of a game, Williams is still the #5 WR in ppr leagues to date.
Speaking of Allen and Williams, one thing this game did clarify was one of the rare disagreements between RC and I. RC was speculating that Williams was the new #1 and would be the higher scoring receiver. I never bought that and I have plenty of Williams stock. I like him as a WR1.5 or so, maybe a back end WR1 when it's all said and done, but I think Allen is a top 5-6 guy this year. Herbert and his targets seem to agree.
RC NOTE: I think Allen is the way better WR, but I think WIlliams will wind up the higher scorer between them this year. But it’s not set in stone. Keenan is awesome too.
--All things Chargers related are good for fantasy, and that includes one of my favorite players in the league, Austin Ekeler (15-117-1, 3-28-1/5). He doesn't often get you 100+ yard rushing games like this, but it doesn't matter when he's catching a million passes and scoring 15+ points in ppr every game.
Name me all the RB's in ppr that have scored more points than Ekeler to date. Derrick Henry. Done. Name me all the RB's that have scored more than Ekeler in standard. Derrick Henry. Done.
(RC NOTE: I was gonna say Cord Patterson, but I have to correct myself -- I’ve been using FantasyPros for PPG leaders and I keep seeing CP at #2 RB PPG...so, I’ve been running around claiming he’s the #2 scorer at the position. But FantasyPros, for whatever reason, is ignoring his Week 1...because (I think) he was classified as a WR for them then...and then as an RB the next 3 weeks (his scoring pop), so they are only picking up his best 3 games. So, now I’m the fool who has been saying ‘#2 RB in FF’ all week. He’s not. He's top 10 not top 2. My bad.)
So long as Ekeler remains healthy, always a question mark, he's going to finish as a top 5 back this year.
--If Ekeler does get hurt I believe it's rookie Larry Rountree that will get first crack at replacing him. Justin Jackson was in the game before Rountree, but he looked dreadful and was quickly replaced by the rookie who at least was a plausible replacement. Neither is particularly good however, and I wouldn't be shocked if the Chargers picked up another guy to get in on the rotation behind Ekeler. Marlon Mack perhaps?
--Even Jared Cook (6-70-1/7) is getting in on the action. I still don't think you can trust him every week since he's splitting snaps with Donald Parham, but he's another possible streaming option if you're hurting at TE.
--Derek Carr (21-34 for 196 yards, 2 TD/1 INT) had a nice run of 400 yard games, but it was never going to last as we talked about last week. Sometimes these wild streaks happen and you ride them while you can. It was nice, but it's time to move on. Carr is just another QB2 backup option.
--Josh Jacobs (13-40-0, 5-17-0/5) is so terrible. I'm not even going into it. RC has been warning you to stay away from this one long enough. Nothing good is going to happen here.
--It's officially ok to let go of your Bryan Edwards (1-4-0/4) lottery tickets. Sorry, everyone. I screwed that one up. The good news is it only cost you a late round pick. That's what you do with those late picks. Take a shot on high upside guys. Most of the time it doesn't work out. Sometimes it does. Edwards isn't the problem. The guy can obviously play. But for whatever reason Carr and Gruden just refuse to throw him the ball until there's only 3 minutes left in the game. I still wonder if Edwards might not break out later in the season, but you can't hold him on your bench hoping for a miracle that doesn't seem close to happening. Go chase other things for now. I'll be watching for any signs of an impending breakout though and ready to sound the alarm to grab him again.
--On the season, Darren Waller (4-50-1/7) has 24 catches on 40 targets for 274 yards and 2 TD's. He's the #2 scoring TE so far. What disturbs me is that 48% of his targets, 40% of his catches, 38% of his yards, and 50% of his TD's all came in that first monster game against the Ravens. Since then he's gotten exactly 7 targets a game and either 4 or 5 catches for around 50-60 yards with only 1 TD. Not exactly setting the world on fire. I'm not saying there's a problem here, but I'm growing just a little bit concerned.
--As I talked about weeks ago, Hunter Renfrow (6-45-1/8) is far more important to this passing game than Bryan Edwards no matter how many few snaps he's getting. He's a fine receiver I guess, your usual slot guy. Nice player to help move the chains. But I don't understand spending so much work on him catching 5 yard passes instead of trying to attack with Edwards down the field. The best play he made in this game was recognizing a fake punt the Chargers were running and flying upfield to dislodge the ball after it was caught by a wide open gunner. Great heads up play that helped keep his team in the game just a little bit longer.
Of course now he's being billed as some godly slot receiver because he stopped the fake punt and ran a cool looking route at the goalline for a TD. Those plays are flashy and all, and again he is a solid receiver, but the hype has gotten totally out of control. He's not a star, he's not even a star fantasy player. He's just another boring slot guy that occasionally has a reasonable day when he gets a TD. Don't get sucked into the nonsense.
IDP Notes
--Another week, another great IDP tally for Denzel Perryman (12 tackles, 1 tfl). The guy has been on fire this year. He is averaging 12 tackles per game. That's a pace of 204 tackles for the year. He's not going to be able to maintain that, but he should remain among the league leaders if not the outright #1 tackler.
--Not to be outdone, his teammate Corey Littleton (14 tackles) took it up a notch as well. He's put up 10+ tackles in 3 of 4 games so far this year and is averaging 9.5 per game on the year.
Snap Counts of Interest
39 = Jared Cook
39 = Donald Parham
22 = Larry Rountree
11 = Justin Jackson
51 = Bryan Edwards
46 = Henry Ruggs
38 = Hunter Renfrow
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 4: Ravens 23, Broncos 7
On the first drive of the game, the Broncos were moving the ball and they ran a nice TE wheel route type of play to spring Albert Okwuegbunam open on an easy 50+ yard bomb TD…but Teddy Bridgewater overthrew the pass. It was kinda all downhill from there for Denver.
The Broncos did take a 7-0 lead as the 2nd-quarter opened up, but then were thumped by Baltimore 23-0 nothing from there for a 23-7 loss. Some people will think…if Teddy Bridgewater didn’t get hurt. No…Teddy was killing this offense. Well, Teddy plus a suddenly terrible offensive line. Well…Teddy plus a terrible O-Line plus the worst offensive minds in the NFL for a coaching staff this side of the Pittsburgh Steelers.
I talked about it on the Video Q&As last week…there’s something wrong with Denver. My internal indicators were flashing the warning as they got out to a (3-0) start that we projected – and the warnings came to life here, once Denver stopped playing teams who had not won a game in the NFL through the first 3 weeks.
11 QB hits allowed, and 5 sacks given up by the Denver O-Line. When Teddy wasn’t under pressure, he had time but was very inaccurate (was 7-of-16 on the game). This was one of the worst QB passing game performances I’ve seen all year. Not only bad protection, not only Teddy all over the place, but whether with Teddy or Lock – absolutely no life in this offense. Routes are being run with little energy. Players are walking back slowly to the huddle. There’s no positive body language or energy or enthusiasm – and that’s coaching as much as anything else. The head coach is WAY into his defense and his offense is a side nuisance that runs a 1980s-style controlled game with their game manager Teddy Bridgewater…the ‘coach on the field’, because offense is annoying for Vic Fangio, so a game manager is his wet dream. In an ever-increasing passing league, the Broncos are one of the worst passing teams, worst offensive playbook teams in the league – if not the worst. That fact covered up by the easy first 3 weeks schedule. O-C Pat Shurmur’s time has long since passed.
The Broncos are about to go into a tailspin, and it may get the offensive coordinator fired by midseason…and Fangio will be done at the end of the year…unless Aaron Rodgers really wants to play for him, and I can’t see why he would. Denver is going to finish between 7-9 wins…they might sneak into the playoffs, but I now even doubt that.
The Ravens are leading a charmed life. They were better than Denver here, for sure, but that’s not a huge compliment. The Ravens are (3-1) and are lucky they are not (1-3). They want to run the ball, but they can’t, so now they’re trying to be a passing team…which worked a little bit here because Denver was so focused on Lamar running that enough things opened up otherwise. Denver’s defense is good-not-great but they were not good enough to stop Lamar when it counted…with Lamar doing so without his usual big running plays…which is further insult to the Denver defense.
Baltimore is a solid wild card team at best. We project them for 7-9 wins as well with a tough schedule after their Week 9 bye. Baltimore is a better team than Denver, but it’s possible Denver winds up with a better record…but they’ll be close, and this Ravens win could come back to haunt the Broncos in wild card tiebreakers.
…and then there was that minor, meaningless rushing record thing – John Harbaugh is an ass, and everyone inside the league knows it…both Harbaugh kids/coaches are jackasses. Both multi-millionaires and solid enough football coaches, but total tools personality-wise most of the time…in football circles. They may be terrific neighbors, uncles, dads and husbands otherwise, but they do some whacky-S in the football world. I guess most of the people have to have a screw loose in that coaching profession, and we’d all love to have their job I suspect. The whole record thing was dumb, no one cares about the record…even Lamar saying so after the game. If Lamar tore his ACL on the play (he ran it) John Harbaugh would be grilled for it through eternity. But we’ll forget about this in a week and outraged about something else stupid some coach did.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Speaking of this Ravens run game…embarrassing. Latavius Murray (18-59-1) is doing fine running straight ahead for 3.4 yards per carry…and was stopped on a few 3rd & shorts to ruin drives in this game. Harbaugh is doing this to himself, so I hope he burns for it. Murray has scored a TD in three of his 4 games as a Raven…but his Fantasy PPR points in each game this season is still just: 9-10-3-12. He has yet to receive a target from Lamar Jackson. You go ahead and FF-enjoy that…no thanks, for me for my FF teams.
Le’Veon Bell (4-11-0, 0-0-0/1) is the new ‘3rd-down back’, which is a laugh. He still has some minor juice running straight but the moment he has to go side-to-side, it’s over.
The Ravens best running back is Ty’Son Williams, and he was inactive for this game…this game where the Ravens ran 30 times for 102 yards…3.4 ypc. And if it wasn’t for Lamar, it would be even worse.
I still believe Ty’Son can make a comeback/take back this main carry role, because Murray-Bell are so shot…but it’s John Harbaugh, so you never know what he’s going to do. I’d like to hold Ty’Son for another week or two to see if they drop Devonta Freeman (1-4-0) and get Ty’Son back in the mix so he can show how much better he is…again. BUT my FF-teams are cooking right now and I don’t have time for nonsense. I need to play to win, so if I see something better or I’m playing a week or two ahead for byes on DSTs, etc., and I pick up something operational instead and drop Ty’Son, I’ll do it. I want to hold, but I don’t have to hold. Ty’Son is likely dead, but I’m not ready to dig the grave yet. I want the lead back for the Ravens…if they have some talent…like Ty’Son.
-- As the run game has sunk to the pits, the Ravens are trying to turn Lamar Jackson (22-37 for 316 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) into a passer…and, well, that’s not his thing really.
The last two games they’ve elevated his passing attempts and his passing yards have gone up, but his passing TDs stay the same (1 per game) and his comp. pct. tumbles. He started out rolling 65%+ completion percentage average the first two games but has been 55%+ average the last two games. He’s also gone from 14.0 rush attempts per game Weeks 1-2 to 7.0 the last two games. Not what you want to see from Lamar for FF.
-- I’m now worried about Courtland Sutton (3-47-0/8), for multiple reasons…
1) The passing game is falling down as they face better defenses. Really, Sutton has one good FF-game in 4 games this season. Sutton looks great/fine, but they can’t get him the ball.
2) What really struck me from this rewatch…the body language from Sutton is mounting frustration…like he knows he’s going to waste, and that it’s gonna cost him free agent money. Sutton is walking slowly to the huddle after the frustrating miss targets and non-targets mount. He’s saying a ton with his body right now…and he’s a team leader, so I think this Denver locker room is about to blow if the Broncos lose their next three games, which they very well might.
Sutton has played 21 games in the Vic Fangio era, over the past 3 seasons, and he has just three 100+ yard receiving games and just 6 TDs. They are taking shots with him/at him for scores…it’s just not connecting. It’s always jump balls that never land, like Mike Williams circa 2019-2020.
I am not a buyer or seller, I’m a hold hoping he pops a little and we can reassess our position.
Sutton = WR1 talent…WR2.5 activity and surroundings, unfortunately…and the WR2.5 side is winning out too much this season. I have more hope for him if Drew Lock is at QB.
-- Speaking of Drew Lock (12-21 for 113 yards, 0 TDs/1 INT)…
I heard two different commentators recap this game by saying (paraphrasing): Well, Denver was gonna win this, but Teddy got hurt and then you got no shot with Drew Lock.
That’s a highlight watcher who has their mind made up already, giving us analysis. I am guilty of such things as well from time-to-time, which is why you gotta study the tape…all the tape…everyday…even in the offseason, as I do. Teddy played like total garbage here. You can blame it on the O-Line perhaps, but Teddy was downright awful -- he was completing 76%+ of his passes coming into this game…and completed 44% here. Drew Lock came in cold and faced some of the same pressure issues, but Lock is more talented…so, he threw some better passes under duress, but the pressure got to him too often as well.
I don’t like much of what I see from Denver, but if the Broncos have to go with Lock vs. PIT Week 5…the Vegas line will go from -1.0 PIT to like -3.0 PIT. I might be interested in betting against the grain here and going with Lock, because Lock looked good here when he had time…like his 2021 preseason work. He still makes mistakes and he’s not a leader, but that guy has Josh Allen ability, but hasn’t made the full Allen turn yet…and he may never, but he’s better than the analysts/fans think. He’s gotten better in each of his last three seasons…but has a way to go.
-- Noah Fant (6-46-1/10) seems to be flowing with the strength of the opposition. The Ravens are getting gashed by TEs, and Fant had a nice game. When he faced the Jets the prior week, a top team against the TE…2 catches for 15 yards. Fant faces a top against the TE defense (Schobert) Week 5 against PIT…that’s why he’s down in our rankings.
-- James Proche (5-74-0/6) came out of nowhere this week. Nice numbers for any Ravens WR in the Lamar era…especially by a perpetual backup. Was it a breakout? No. He was just ignored/left alone a couple times and made numbers. Devin Duvernay (3-31-0/6) is 10x the WR. And Rashod Bateman is going to return soon.
-- Two rookie IDPs…
Odafe Oweh (1 tackles, 1.0 sack) got his first sack in a football game since 2019! Congrats. He’s doing solid enough work in the NFL for a rookie, but nothing much for IDP yet.
Caden Sterns (3 tackles, 2.0 sacks, 2 TFLs, 1 PD) got all the numbers you see…in just 7 snaps played!! To put it in perspective, Odafe Oweh is considered a top pass rush prospect in football and has been rushing the passer every play for years and he has one sack in his last 22 months of always playing football (college and pro). Sterns is a safety who just doubled Oweh’s last 22 months’ worth of sacks in just 7 snaps in this one game.
Until Sterns is playing more, I can’t take him seriously for IDP…but I do love him so, as a football scout.
-- I see Denver’s defense is good, but their lofty 2021 ratings/metrics so far are built on schedule. They haven’t faced a real elite QB yet this season…and they won’t until Week 9 at DAL.
I look at this sad Denver defense, and then I see the Cardinals and Chargers and Browns and Panthers have rebuilt their defenses in a year+ and become high end defenses in a blink…while Denver is still just OK/‘good’. It has me ‘out’ on thinking Vic Fangio is some defensive guru…or in thinking he is a good coach at all. He’s as good as gone this offseason.
I see more DST talent with Denver, but I see more execution with Baltimore’s defense. The Broncos ownership should fire Fangio and hire the real D-guru, Ravens D-C Don Martindale.
Snap Counts of Interest:
31 = Javonte
30 = M Gordon
53 = Watkins
45 = Mq Brown
33 = Duvernay
24 = Proche
45 = Latavius
20 = Le’Veon
06 = Devonta
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 4: Browns 14, Vikings 7
This was the definition of a hard fought, defensive battle win for the Browns. I was surprised that the Browns held the very good Vikings offense to just a TD…and it was on the opening drive…so a shutout the next 50+ minutes. I moved up this rewatch to take a deeper look at this Browns defense that ruled with 9 sacks over Chicago Week 3, and then this gem Week 4. My full FF-thoughts on this DST will be in the player notes below.
The Browns’ offensive is fading while the defense is rising, but overall they’re probably good enough to still win the division. A tough schedule ahead, but they will probably get to 9-10 wins. But 7-8 wins wouldn’t totally shock me either. The Browns have upside but also growing offensive flaws.
The Vikings defense is no slouch either – back-to-back games holding good teams (CLE and SEA) to under 20 points. The Vikings are (1-3) but really could be (4-0). They are the best (1-3) team in football…and we project them with 10 wins and a wild card…and a possible threat to Green Bay for the NFC North. The Vikings are one of the better teams in the NFL…they went toe-to-toe with CLE, ARI, CIN this season (a combined 10-2 collectively)…and whacked SEA. If Minnesota is as good as the Browns, and people think the Browns are a Super Bowl contender, then…
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Let’s talk about the Cleveland-DST first…because they deserve it. That was one wicked defense I saw on this tape. Like…’wow’. Like ‘Holy S***’.
I’ve not seen that much pressure on a QB…since…Cleveland Week 3 sacking Justin Fields 9 times and hitting him 15 times. They hit Kirk Cousins 10 times here and only sacked him twice, but he was uncomfortable most every drop back…but Cousins is so damn good he fought through it like a trooper, but the Browns were just too much.
The three defenses that I’ve seen the past 2-3 weeks and I think they’re the most menacing in football (to my eyes): Arizona, L.A. Chargers and these Browns. The Panthers right there too. The Jets are pretty aggressive/emerging but don’t have the top-to-bottom talent of these other big names.
The Browns front group was pushing the Vikings O-Line back every time…and they batted down passes, chased Cousins from the pocket a lot, and hit him often. They only sacked him twice but lost 2-3 sacks to Cousins just smartly getting rid of the ball as he was in the grasp.
I saw the Browns slumber through their Week 2 games with the Texans and thought the Browns were just mediocre on defense, so when they smoked the Bears with 9 sacks Week 3…I thought it was a Bears problem, and it was -- but the Browns defense was exasperating the problem exponentially. Here, against a top 10 NFL offense/QB…they made the Vikings’ lives miserable.
This is a DST built for Fantasy – high pressure = sacks, strip sacks, and hurried throws/picks.
The Browns are #7 in PPG allowed in the NFL (and they faced MIN and KC).
The Browns are #2 in sacks on the season. Top 5 in pressures per pass attempt.
They have allowed net passing yards of 1 (to CHI) and 190 (to MIN) the past two weeks.
I would say the Browns have a great front four…and a good/OK back seven. The DB group is potentially very good, but still coming together as a unit with offseason changes and high draft pick players returning from missed-the-season injury last year.
The Browns face the Chargers and Cardinals the next two weeks…arguably two of the best 3 teams in football. The schedule has been brutal. Some will FF-drop them for fear of the LAC game…then more will drop them in Week 6 v. ARI. Be on the lookout for a pickup in and around that, potentially…
After Week 7, the Browns face: Teddy-Ben-Burrow-Mac-Goff-Lamar before a Week 13 bye. Six quality matchups, many with some of the weakest O-Lines in football.
-- Also, consider… The Vikings defense is no slouch either. It’s coming into its own as well. They were toe-to-toe, almost, with the Browns defense. The Vikings-DST is #4 in sacks in the NFL right now. They are the 3rd-best defense on 3rd-downs in the NFL.
This is an on-the-come defense…just not quite the pass rush Cleveland has, and a worse back 7 because their secondary is still dicey…but improving, quickly.
Any time this MIN defense is at home, with that crowd noise, it’s an extra boost. Week 5 hosting DET…it works for FF. Week 6 at CAR, if CMC is out, could be nice. Then the schedule gets nasty for a while starting with their Week 7 bye.
Just take note – if your QB/WR is facing MIN…it’s not a certain boost. This is not the 2020 Vikings on defense.
-- Dalvin Cook (9-34-0, 2-10-0/6) got banged up again in-game, left for a while and then returned. He will likely be questionable and may sit out or sit a lot if they manhandle DET this week. It would be a good time, if he’s questionable all week, to explore cheap trades for him from the desperate – because he looks fantastic otherwise.
Because they might sit him this week because of an ‘easy’ win vs. DET…Alexander Mattison (10-20-0) is worth holding onto as a shock/surprise solo starter v. DET this week.
-- I cannot tell you how awful Odell Beckham (2-27-0/7) is working with Baker Mayfield (15-33 for 155 yards, 0 TDs/0 INT)…it drags Baker down. He’s always trying to force it to OBJ and it's almost always covered or OBJ goes the wrong way on the timing throw.
Speaking of Baker, his numbers are going in the toilet since OBJ got back…and, shockingly, the Browns are the 5th-most sacked team in the league right now – this supposedly great O-Line isn’t great at pass blocking (but is at run blocking).
-- Three notes on MIN receivers…
1) Justin Jefferson (6-84-1/7) abused a very good Denzel Ward in this game. Jefferson is like fine art watching him work. I’ve learned to appreciate it as I’ve gotten older (from last year).
2) K.J. Osborn (3-26-0/7) is really good…but there’s not enough passes to go around for him. But note, he’s a really good, future starting WR. He’s going to matter for FF someday. He’s like a junior Justin Jefferson.
3) Tyler Conklin (4-18-0/6) had a down game off his nice Week 3, so now everyone will turn on Conklin. Just note that Cleveland is one of the five best defenses against the TE this season, and that’s including facing Travis Kelce Week 1. Don’t write off Conklin too quickly. Not saying he’s a star TE1 ahead, but he’s not as dead as you might think.
Snap Counts of Interest:
33 = D Cook
23 = Mattison
66 = Thielen
59 = Jefferson
42 = Osborn
56 = Hooper
52 = Njoku
29 = Bryant
41 = Hunt
37 = Chubb
- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 4: Seahawks 28, 49'ers 21
I started watching this game thinking I was about to see a pretty good Seattle team slowly but surely control the game against a weaker SF squad. I was not prepared to see the 49'ers look like the better team for a good chunk of this game.
SF was dominating the early portion of this game. I'm not sure the Seahawks broke 20 yards of offense until the first half was nearly over. Not only was the SF defensive line dominating them up front, but Russ and his WR's couldn't take advantage of a theoretically poor 49'er secondary. It wasn't a fluke either. It was pure domination.
The spark for Seattle was, shockingly, Alex Collins. He started a series with a couple big runs and a nice catch downfield and that got Seattle to the end zone where Metcalf would tie the game. In the second half Wilson put together a nice drive and took the lead on a scramble for a TD. The game was 14-7 Seattle at that point, but SF fumbled the ensuing kickoff and Seattle got the ball at the 49'er 15 yard line. Of course they punched in the easy TD and it proved to be too large a gap for Trey Lance to overcome.
Lance would pull the game back to 21-13, but the Seahawks answered again to make it 28-13 and the game looked over for good. Once again though Lance drove the 49'ers down the field and scored to make it a 7 point game. SF tried an onside kick with about a 1:30 left but didn't recover.
I don't think there's a massive gap between these two teams, but SF definitely played better for most of the game, and it was only the fumbled kickoff that gave Seattle an easy TD for the lead. Seattle has now beaten an injured Colts team, lost to the not great Titans, gotten spanked by the Vikings, and gotten lucky to beat the 49'ers. They aren't a great team. They are an average team that's 19th in yards per game, 10th in scoring with some lucky turnovers going their way (and playing some bad defenses), dead last in defensive yards per game, and 19th in defensive scoring per game. I'm sure Wilson will find some way to get them to 9 or 10 wins like he always does, but this looks like the weakest Seattle unit I've seen in a few years.
San Francisco has a slightly better offense, top 12 or so despite Garoppolo's limitations, and their defense is average to slightly below average. They gave up a flurry of late points to the Lions after crushing them most of the game, held the Eagles down (with some luck), got smoked by the Packers, and really did a good job against the Seahawks. It's not a horrible unit. They'll finish around .500 or so, not bad but not really a playoff contender either.
Fantasy Notes
--Of course you know I'm starting with Trey Lance (9-18 for 157 yards, 2 TD/0 INT, 7-41-0). Let me begin with a humble statement: I was right all along.
In the entire first half Garoppolo scored once. In the 2nd half, Lance scored twice. Yes, one was a busted play of sorts, but those types of things happen because defenses are worried about his running ability. Lance should have been starting from day 1. If he had, the 49'ers might not have lost this game. Let me explain...
When Lance started the 2nd half for an injured Garoppolo, he came out and was very shaky for a couple of series, lots of his usual inaccurate passes, not seeing defenders, etc. But as the game went on he started to settle down, and you could see with every passing snap that he was improving. I've never seen anything like it. RC watched some of it live and saw the same thing.
Lance was progressing rapidly from snap to snap and by the end of the game he was starting to look like the guy I've been howling about for months. Still not the greatest passer, but a big, strong, fast and mobile guy that can break tackles, extend plays, and make something out of nothing. We finally saw him run in an explosive fashion, not just your typical mobile QB stuff, but running with speed and agility. He's definitely got that and RC and I were beginning to get worried that I had overestimated his running ability. No such worry now. I should also point out that, while there was definitely a package of plays ready for Lance, this wasn't him working with a dedicated game plan built around him. Once he becomes the full-time starter the offense should be nicely tailored to his strengths.
The stupid part is that Kyle Shanahan has been holding back Lance for whatever reason, and Lance was still jittery as a result. If he had been getting snaps since week 1, all that would have been out of his system and who knows where he might have progressed to already. If he's improving exponentially with every snap (this is what I meant by his ceiling is insanely high due to his lack of reps in college), then it's a crime to hold him back and not give him those reps. You could have started him against the garbage Lions and Eagles and been fine, but no, Kyle is too smart for that, and now he's dug himself a hole. And now to top it off, he's talking about starting Garoppolo again next week if he's not hurt.
What kind of idiot watches his veteran struggle to score while his hotshot rookie is putting points up every time he comes in the game and decides to stick with the veteran? This is mismanagement at its worst, and I think it's going to cost Kyle his job.
I still say we can expect low QB1 numbers from Lance once he's the starter. He's going to be an erratic passer for sure, but his legs are going to do the damage, and he's still capable of making some ridiculous plays in the passing game. That's been the argument for him all along. Even if he's a lesser passer, his legs make him more dangerous all-around than Jimmy. He opens up the offense by forcing the defense to account for him as a runner and that helps everyone. The offense is better with Lance in, mistakes and all. It's just a matter of time, if not this week then soon...
Actually, I hope it's not this week as the 49'ers have to face the Arizona defense, and that is not where I want Lance taking his first starting action. If he does it could be a pick 6 fest for the Arizona defense.
--Further proving my point about Lance elevating the entire offense, how much better did Trey Sermon (19-89-0) look in the 2nd half? It's not magic. Running QB's are good for the ypc of RB's. It gives them more room to run because now the LB's can't vacate their lanes and crash down on the line. We've seen this time and time again. Just look at the numbers for the Seattle RB's before and after Russell Wilson or any of the guys in Baltimore. Whoever is at RB each week is going to benefit from having Lance in. Of course he will steal a few goalline TD's, but that's the price you pay.
Sermon took about the same number of snaps as he did last week, but this week they trusted him to carry the ball much more often and he looked decent but still not amazing. I thought he was running more decisively than we had seen so far. I don't think he's seized the job and next week Elijah Mitchell could be back though and render this backfield a mess once again.
--Deebo Samuel (8-156-2) is still the only receiver you want from this team, but like RC talked about, I'd be looking to trade up with him if possible. Try and turn him into Cooper Kupp specifically. Samuel has a ton of value right now, and while he'll continue to be a good player, there are some questions about this offense moving forward. Also, Samuel has been good no doubt, but he's also benefiting from two fluky 75 yard TD's in the first 4 weeks. That isn't likely to continue. Don't dump him but try to sell him high into something even better. Again Kupp is the best option because people still don't fully trust him.
--I've already pointed out how disappointing George Kittle (4-40-0/11) has been for fantasy for quite some time and he repeated that output again here. He did see a total of 11 targets though and most of those came from Lance in the second half. Lance starting could be very good for Kittle because even though they might connect at a lower rate, defenses won't be able to key on Kittle and Lance has the arm to hit him further downfield. The more I think about it the more I'm opening up to the idea that Kittle might really take off with Lance as the starter. Something to think about. If we don't jump on it now though we'll miss our chance as Kittle still has a ton of name value with most people in fantasy.
--I said I didn't like this Seattle passing game the very first week and here you go. Lighting up a very weak Tennessee secondary with low volume doesn't automatically mean you're setting the world on fire. Until they prove they'll throw it more I don't want any part of trying to guess what week Tyler Lockett (4-24-0/5) and DK Metcalf (4-65-1/8) catch a TD.
Another thing I talked about before, that is becoming more and more obvious...Metcalf is the clear leader between him and Lockett. It's no longer a dynamic duo per se. Lockett is still a great player and will get some good numbers, but Wilson is looking first for DK for good reason. He's really developing into a very good all-around receiver to go along with his phenomenal athleticism. If I knew they were going to start airing it out (and that DK was healthy) I'd be a big buyer. Metcalf has as much potential as anybody in the league but is being held back by this pedestrian passing game.
Speaking of Metcalf's injury, we still haven't gotten any details on it. Based on what we knew this past weekend there was reason to believe it might have been either turf toe or a Lisfranc injury. Since he played and was seemingly fine there's almost no way it's a Lisfranc. That's great news. It does mean that turf toe is the most likely culprit, and while that's not devastating news, it is something that should be monitored closely as it can easily turn into a worse injury or drag a player down for weeks.
--The thing that's been dragging the Seattle offense down most is their utter insistence on running everything through Chris Carson (13-30-0, 1-1-0/1) despite the fact that he's just an average back. In this game it was plain as day that nothing good was coming from slamming Carson up the middle every play, and Seattle shockingly started getting Alex Collins (10-44-1, 2-34-0/2) more involved which provided the spark the Seahawks needed to get going.
Collins looked much better than Carson, and RC was all over Collins all the way back in the pre-season. I don't know what's gotten into him, but he looks slimmed down and much quicker but still running decisively and with his usual power. So...do we have a split on our hands? I doubt it. Pete Carroll is too stubborn and committed to Carson to suddenly put him in a rotation with Collins. I expect them to go back to business as usual next week. But if Carson continues to struggle this might eventually turn into something closer to a split. It definitely should not just be written off as something that will never happen again. There is danger to Carson's position now, even if it isn't right on his doorstep just yet.
IDP Notes
--Azeez Al-Shaair (10 tackles) did it again. He's put up 10 tackles each of the two games since Dre Greenlaw got hurt. I don't see any reason why that should stop either. He just always seems to get at least a piece of every other tackle.
--Yet another player I've been talking about since pre-season is Seattle safety Quandre Diggs (7 tackles, 2 pd). He's averaging 7.75 tackles per game this year and is really forming a nice duo with Jamaal Adams. Adams gets all the headlines, but I think Diggs is the more sound player. It was Adams that allowed the busted coverage to Deebo for a TD.
Snap Counts of Interest
25 = Chris Carson
22 = Alex Collins
68 = Deebo Samuel
51 = Brandon Aiyuk
39 = Mohamed Sanu
39 = Trey Sermon
