- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 9 Game Analysis: Titans 24, Bears 17
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
I remembered this, from the live watch, as a Tennessee drubbing/manhandling of the Bears. 10-0 Titans at the half. 17-0 TEN after three quarters. 24-3 Titans with 8+ minutes left. Easy win?
Really, re-watching this game, it was a pretty flimsy, erratic, slog of a game by both teams. The Bears were not as bad as the 24-3 Titans lead showed. Chicago got it together late and closed it to 24-17 but couldn’t get a late onside kick and they ended up with a one score loss. It could’ve been worse…or the Bears could have gotten more luck earlier and made it a real ballgame.
I’m not impressed with Tennessee here, nor am I thinking differently with Chicago – they are both ‘any given Sunday’ teams. They aren’t great playoff teams; both may miss out on the playoffs (but soon every team will make the playoffs anyway) but if they do get to the playoffs they won’t go far. Tennessee is the better overall team, because Matt Nagy wrecks the Bears in general, but neither team is all that impressive…nor were they in this game.
The Titans are (6-2), but it doesn’t feel like a (6-2) team. The schedule is their friend ahead…and if they can split with Indy in their two games in the next 3 weeks with them, then Tennessee may win this division with a 10-win season. If Indy beats them twice the next 3 weeks, the Titans could be scrambling to get to (9-7) and the wild card. We think the 10-win season and a shot at the AFC South is more likely, sightly, over the (9-7) finish.
The Bears have lost three in a row…and have fallen to (5-4), and their losing streak is just desserts because they are a (2-7) team masquerading as a (5-4) contender. If they lose to Minnesota, in Chicago, on MNF this week…all Matt Nagy hell is going to break loose this week in the Windy City. I think they will lose and eventually wind up (8-8) and fans wanting Nagy fired, but they won’t get the satisfaction.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The big news from this game…David Montgomery (14-30-0, 3-12-0/3) got hurt late in the game and is questionable this week. They say a concussion, but it looks like a shoulder/arm injury to me…on top of that.
So, is it Ryan Nall (4-35-1/4) time? Honestly, I don’t know. It should be, but I also know Matt Nagy knows nothing of football talent or how to use it…so, my NFL-brain says he gets stiffed. But the way this game ended gives me hope.
Here’s the court case/evidence…
THE CASE FOR PATTERSON: Cordarrelle Patterson (3-13-0, 4-27-0/4) started this game. He was rotating in and out with Montgomery, but Patterson got a little push…but Montgomery played 50-17 snaps vs. CP and Montgomery took most of the touches (per usual). It looked like Nagy was trying to get Patterson going to spark Montgomery, but neither thing really was working.
Nagy has confidence in Patterson…he has all year. There’s NEVER been a turn to Ryan Nall to see what he might do.
My NFL-brain says Patterson will get 10+ touches and be the lead back for sure.
THE CASE FOR RYAN NALL: So, Montgomery goes down as the Bears are scrambling back into this game. Nall comes in for a play. Then Patterson in the next play. Then Nall in the next play…then Nall stays in, catches a short pass he runs in for a TD.
Next series, Nall in…Bears turnover. One play drive ends quickly.
Next series, again…Bears trying to get back in it, Nall in to start again…and he stayed in 7 straight plays in the hurry up offense, catching a few dump passes.
Chicago gets into the red zone, and then Artavis Pierce comes in for a play…then they go all WRs the next play, TD, end of Bears’ offensive chances.
A lot of Nall late, but he took no carries (but it was an all pass comeback frenzy). But then Nall out for Pierce (after Nall just made a play/catch and ran for good yards…may have been a breather). Patterson, a game breaking WR of the past…was not in the entire time in the hurry up, but Nall was?
You’re asking me what Matt Nagy will do for Week 10, when in the hurry up offense with terrible Montgomery in the game a ton, but then goes out hurt – and Nagy goes to little used Nall instead of former gamebreaker WR, game starter at RB Patterson?
What will Nagy do Week 10? I have to ask myself…what would an idiot do, and then take it from there.
My guess is Patterson starts, for sure, and then if he’s hot -- he’s taking the day. BUT Nall will get some shots and if he gets hot, then they’ll make use of Nall by accident/stumbling into it. Nothing is assured for Nall. Patterson will get the first series/starting chance – but that’s meant nothing all season.
Nall could earn 10+ touches and become a mini sensation of a tough runner the Bears crave. OR Nall could also see 3 touches and split minor time with Artavis Pierce and ruin your Monday night.
There’s hope with Nall…but also a lot of risk. I hope Nagy makes some statements to the press this week we can decipher to help figure it out better.
-- In Tennessee RB news…
You have to just stick with Derrick Henry (21-68-0) if you have him. Tougher matchup this game. Always stacked boxes he faces regardless. Incredibly tough matchups the next three weeks vs. IND-BAL-IND. You’re stuck hoping Henry overcomes. I think he could, but he could just as easily pitch in three ‘meh’ efforts.
D’Onta Foreman (5-11-0) really looks good in relief carries. Foreman may never do anything ever again for FF, but I’m just noting he looks like a legit NFL starting RB again. He is the Henry cuff in my mind.
-- Nick Foles (36-52 for 335 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) is turning water into wine the past two games…303.5 yards passing and 2.0 pass TDs per game the past two weeks. He faces the very giving Minnesota pass defense this week. He could work for a week.
-- Foles has no running game, so he has to throw…a lot…to try and win games. Numbers come with that. He has a WR helping out…
Darnell Mooney (5-43-0/11) is starting to turn from talented but unsure rookie (as most all start out as)…to where I see the confidence is starting to grow. He’s a really excellent WR prospect but playing in a stiff offense…however, Foles has to throw a lot and Mooney is becoming his strong #2. Mooney led all receivers with 11 targets this game. He also caught a beautiful 31-yard leaping TD in heavy coverage but came down just out of bounds…or his stat line would have people rushing in for FF, I bet.
This week vs. MIN might be a winner.
Riley Ridley (2-23-0/2) made an appearance, and he looked better than I’ve seen him before.
Foles has some guys to throw to besides ARob. This Week 10 game vs. MIN could be a good spot for passer numbers.
-- When Corey Davis (0-0-0/3) cannot hide from good coverage…hiding behind all the A.J. Brown attention or playing teams like Cincy…when it’s tough coverage – this is the Corey Davis you get.
-- I thought perhaps the Titans-DST was turning here…they were pitching a shutout for a while, but they eventually gave up some garbage points late. I saw some flashes of hope here with the Titans-DST but not enough to get me really excited to use them strong against Philip Rivers.
The trade addition of CB Desmond King (2 tackles, 1 FR TD) really helps Tennessee. If they could get Adoree Jackson back, we might have something here. It’s just a flyer DST hope at this point – a weak defense with a decent-ish schedule ahead.
Snap Counts of Interest:
29 = Henry
16 = McNichols
08 = Foreman
52 = Jonnu
27 = Firkser
50 = Montgomery
17 = CPatt
10 = Nall
01 = Pierce
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 9 Game Analysis: Dolphins 34, Cardinals 31
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
The Dolphins eked out a gritty win, but in reality the Cardinals were the better team here…they just let this getaway. A key turnover lost, deep in their own territory, on a muffed punt for Arizona…a couple lucky throws by Tua landed…penalties against the Cardinals at crucial times…Arizona let Miami hang around and they got-got in the end. It’s not like the Cardinals were great, but they showed me more here than Miami did. I still am not sure how Miami won this game…or how they were even close, honestly.
Miami gets to (5-3)…a four game win streak, and five out of their last 6. They are headed to the playoffs maybe…it’s going to be close -- but they will not threaten Buffalo for the AFC East title regardless. We see them finishing 8-9 wins. Week 10 hosting LAC is huge…gotta hold homefield and win but Justin Herbert can work miracles. A win over LAC in Week 10 sends Miami into likely playoff status…a loss could bring it all crashing down considering the schedule ahead and the risk of Tua.
Arizona falls to (5-3). I think Arizona is a stronger playoff candidate than Miami right now. The Cards are getting to 9 wins unless Kyler goes down. 9-10 wins is their current range for our projections. The 49ers and Patriots dying helps Arizona down the stretch…those was once ‘tough’ schedule/matchups but are now easier wins projected.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Let’s start with the (new) greatest QB in the history of football, for the mainstream, Tua Tagovailoa (20-28 for 248 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT, 7-35-0).
I’m already totally sick of him…not him, he’s a good kid, but the media/analyst love is utterly ridiculous. I’d facetiously ask if they (football analysts) really watch these games – but either of the two possible answers are negative for them. It’s either…
1) They don’t watch…and I think that’s the majority -- because they don’t have to. They get paid lots of money for being ‘them’ (analysts)…paid for their former lives, not their current astuteness -- they watch some live games during the week (usually SNF and MNF), they watch a lot of highlights, and always just echo what everyone else seems to think on players.
The problem with our entire American media (lazy, unstudied, untalented, biased) is pervasive and thriving in sports media. No depth of their work. No objectivity. No real effort put in. ‘Cheating’ off popular opinion for their opinions is how they get by…so they can’t ever be wrong alone on a real, radical opinion -- it’s safer (job security) this way.
OR
2) They do watch/study SOME/a few games, but not studying in detail hour after hour, week after week, 24/7/365…what they do watch they have no idea what they are watching because they don’t do it for a living like it’s life and death…despite the huge paycheck.
What they do watch already has Tua-colored glasses, so it doesn’t matter what is happening before their eyes…they already made up their mind. Thus, when Tua completes a basic/simple pass…it’s the greatest feat they’ve seen all day/year. When he had a basic scramble downfield and cut away from a defender for a few extra yards in this game…he’s Barry Sanders all of a sudden to the TV hype analyst.
You cannot get objective opinion on Tua today…like any other type of news. When Tua absolutely sucked out loud in his debut, the focus was ‘Miami shocks the Rams, Tua wins his debut’. The real story was punted/ignored…it didn’t fit their narrative. When Tua has some decent stats in their win here, it’s ‘The Dolphins are for real led by a breakout performance by Tua!’
With this win, it’s all settled -- now THEY can speak of Burrow, Herbert, and Tua on the same level – yet, nothing could be further from the truth. I’m not saying Tua is terrible…he’s just not anywhere near as good as advertised and doesn’t belong in the same discussion with Burrow or Herbert.
I watched Tua in this game live and I kept wondering – this was THEIR top guy? A big hitch in his throws. Mediocre, slower feet moving around compared to the top guys. Having to roll out all the time to make simple throws because he’s bad in the pocket (a sure sign of trouble ahead…forced rollout plays on purpose). A bunch of looks one way and then quick turns the other way and throws blind – that crap ain’t gonna work long in the NFL. Teams are going to heavy blitz him coming from his left side roll and are going to ruin him soon…it’s happened to say many weak QBs of the past.
So, Tua flung a bunch of passes blindly to receivers and a few miraculously landed. Two terrible INTs were negated…one by replay (just out of bounds) and another was horrific, thrown blindly right into double coverage but the defender dropped the easy pick right to him. Sometimes it’s just your day…it took that type of day here to get Tua to respectable passer numbers. I bet this is his best game of the season as a passer, statistically…and it was a lot of luck.
Watching early Herbert and Burrow, compared to early Tua – it’s the difference between gold and silver…or gold and copper is maybe the better analogy.
I’d be selling DeVante Parker (6-64-0/7) before Sunday. People love Parker as it is (because you’re supposed to) and now he gets a bump for being ‘with Tua’…and, as of this week, Tua has been declared great, so Parker benefits from the hype. I think it’s going to be WR3-4-land for Preston ahead on Tua struggles. Not Preston’s fault. Jakeem Grant (4-35-0/6) might be in a better place for easy pitch and catch short throws if Preston Williams is out hurt.
-- At least Tua has a stellar running game to help him! https://youtu.be/C6YfJZ9hxLQ
Miami run game ranks…
Rushing yards = #29 per game (97.1 yards)
Yards per carry = #32 (3.6 ypc)
Myles Gaskin shouldn’t be a starting RB. Matt Breida has looked terrible. Jordan Howard (10-19-1) has been a failure. Now, Salvon Ahmed (7-38-0) is the new savior…he looks that way because everything else has been so awful.
Ahmed is a smaller, thinner framed, shifty runner. Not awesome, but capable. He’s the lead guy going into Week 10, by default after watching Week 9.
…except, I think DeAndre Washington might be the new starter…as soon as Week 10. Washington fits what Brian Flores wants…physically tough, experienced, hard-nosed grinder. Can run between the tackles and works nice in the passing game.
I’d never want to bet heavy on what Brian Flores may or may not do…but I’d take a dice roll on Washington, stuck on the end of a deeper/RB-needy roster to see what happens this week. Won’t cost you anything really.
-- Chase Edmonds (25-70-0, 3-18-0/3) is better than every single Miami RB on their roster…combined.
Chase got his big moment here and it was ‘meh’ for FF, but he looked as good as ever on tape -- but Miami really played great run defense here and kept Edmonds surrounded most of the game. He never had a big pop play.
No lost faith in Edmonds. I think he starts without Drake Week 10, and maybe again Week 11. And whenever Drake returns, Edmonds is a solid hands RB2-3 week-to-week in PPR…and semi-threat to overthrow Drake at some point but not likely. A 50-50 split is Edmonds best case for 2020.
-- The Kyler Murray (21-26 for 283 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT, 11-106-1) report, and it is good…
This was the best game I’ve seen Kyler Murray play in his NFL career. This was the game that has convinced me he has really ‘arrived’ at the elite/upper end FF QB level.
I knew he could run for FF gold, but now he’s starting to become a passing assassin…not an up-and-down, or flashes moments passer – he’s ‘arrived’. He’s starting to find other receivers besides DeAndre Hopkins.
He’s throwing downfield on the money…71.0% completion percentage total in 2020 MINUS that weird Dallas performance where he was 9-for-24 passing.
2.3 passing TDs per game his last six games.
Two 350+ yard passing games in his last 4 games.
He’s been sacked 0 or 1 time in six straight games…amazing. His running prowess has halted defensive pressure worried about his running, which then gives him time to be an assassin at QB.
I’ve been wondering if he was really going to be an A+ producer…or whether B+ was the peak, but I see the A+ guy starting to emerge finally. He’s not ‘a runner’…he’s truly ‘a passer’, on the level of Patrick Mahomes in gifts/arm talent, and I’ve said that since my initial Kyler scouting report – but it hasn’t fully materialized in the NFL, until now (the past few games it’s been building with one blip vs. DAL). Consistency is here. He’s only getting better week-to-week.
The #1 QB in all of fantasy football, in PPG, 4 or 6pts per pass TD…it’s Kyler Murray.
-- Christian Kirk (5-123-1/8) is benefitting from the Kyler rise as a passer.
Comparing Kirk to Hopkins the past 4 games…
4.3 rec. (6.5 targets), 81.0 yards, 1.3 TDs per game = Kirk
5.3 rec (7.5 targets), 83.5 yards, 0.5 TDs per game = Hopkins
A pretty good schedule ahead. I’ve skeptical of Kirk as low targets/TD surge to give a head-fake…but it’s getting too consistent now. Kirk is going for a ride with Kyler and benefitting from the attention to Hopkins.
-- Newly acquired LB Markus Golden (5 tackles, 1.0 sack, 1 PD) had a nice debut, applying good pressure trying to be the Chandler Jones-a-like. Impressed with his return to Arizona (formerly drafted by the Cardinals). He has a shot to be a sack a game guy here.
-- Miami-DST gave up 34 points here, so people want to quit them. Hey, they actually kept their team in this – taking on the onslaught of Kyler, but Kyler is too much for anyone to handle right now between his running and then pocket assassin ways.
I don’t want to use any good defense/DST if they have a matchup with an elite QB…so, I don’t want to use Miami this week vs. Justin Herbert. It’s Weeks 11-13 that I want.
Week 11 = at DEN
Week 12 = at NYJ
Week 13 = v. CIN
Week 14 = find another (MIA v KC)
Week 15 = v. NE (I’ll take this one too)
Week 16 – at LV is so-so
Can you find a defense for Weeks 10, 14, 16 to go with them?
Tennessee-DST has IND, at JAX, at GB those weeks…good for Weeks 10 and 14.
Packers-DST has JAX, at DET, TEN those weeks…not bad.
Chargers-DST has at MIA, ATL, DEN those weeks…that’s rteally not bad at all if they get Bosa and Harris back.
Raiders-DST has DEN, IND, MIA those weeks…all home games, a sneaky pairing facing Lock, Rivers, Tua.
All of those teams will be in the playoff hunt, except LAC…which you want a motivated DST down the stretch.
Snap Counts of Interest:
66 = Edmonds
05 = DJ Foster
55 = Parker
29 = Grant
17 = Hollins
17 = Pr Williams
01 = Kirk Merritt
28 = Ahmed
23 = M Perry
21 = Jo Howard
12 = Laird
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 9 Game Analysis: Patriots 30, Jets 27
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
I thought the Jets might pull the upset here going into this game. Jason Katz and I spoke of it on Sunday morning…not a guarantee, but that we were worried about taking the Patriots in a survivor pool over the Jets.
The reason for my fears on this game…
1) The Jets are not the laughingstock they are portrayed to be. They are not good. They have issues, but they are playing harder than a lot of other teams – and they are going to win at least one game this year, if not two. But I’d set the over/under at 1.5 wins.
2) The Patriots are playing worse football than the Jets. Let that sink in. The Patriots have better players and coaches, but the Pats have a lot of injuries and a lot of players who opted-out before the season, and some seem to be opting-out in-season/in-game. The Jets are playing with more passion than the Patriots right now…and Cam Newton is killing the Patriots. He’s a waste. This win staves off a huge backlash ending Cam’s Patriots career – I believe, had the Jets won this game…Cam would’ve been cut the next day. Now, with the win, the Patriots hold delusions of being ‘in it’ for the playoffs.
I never want to bury a Belichick team too early, but I’m already shoveling the dirt. This team is going to finish with 5-6 wins and when Belichick realizes it’s over, a lot of players might be about to get cut in the next few weeks and a lot more ‘names’ cut and traded next preseason.
As far as this game goes…the Jets had it won, but they are the Jets, so they blew it in epic fashion. The worst final 5-7 minutes of football in the 2020 season…when they played a really nice first 50+ minutes. It’s a shame, but I think the Jets fans and management are breathing a sigh of relief – because they want to lose and tank for Trevor.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- This game, for me/my notes, was mostly about four WR stories…
1) Jakobi Meyers (12-169-0/14) – did I call this a few weeks ago or what? I was saying Meyers was their new #1 but even I didn’t think we’d be getting 10+ catch games a few weeks later.
Some FFMers were ‘forced’ into rolling with Meyers this week…and that added more wins from certain doom. That’s a good thing. It's funny…Jakobi’s big game turned some losses into wins out of nowhere last night…for the same people who emailed Monday morning to complain they sat D.J. Chark.
It’s never over until the games are finally finished for the week.
Meyers is clearly the Pats #1 WR, even if/when Edelman returns…and whether Cam or Stidham. Meyers was rolling with Stidham a few weeks ago, after Cam started to in the same game. I don’t know that Meyers is the long-term #1. I think he’s more ‘of the moment’, but he’s a professional WR…he’ll have value, but note this is a weak passing game – and Meyers is about to get the star coverage treatment…and Meyers is a bit limited as an athlete, but very good technical WR. His upside is a bit capped…but it’s hot right now.
2) Denzel Mims (4-62-0/8) – I never thought Jakobi Meyers would be the lead story where I was going to talk nice about Mims…but, hey, welcome to 2020.
What I want to convey on Mims…
What I think I’m seeing is the same thing I saw with Justin Jefferson out of the gates in 2020. A solid-looking, nondescript-acting WR prospect who looked worthy but nothing special. I thought JJ was tentative his first few weeks and I feared he didn’t have the ‘it’/aggression factor…then ‘boom’ Jefferson exploded one week and never looked back. I’m getting the same vibe with Mims…slowly getting up to speed, gaining more confidence, showing tiny flashes. And I know he graded top 5 in our CFM draft grades at WR this season…the talent is there.
Mims has excellent feet, and he looks like he is gliding in and out of his routes…but he’s still not dominating coverage or being overly aggressive. He still has that first month of high school as a freshman appearance…still a little unsure but getting more comfortable with his surroundings. Jefferson did the same and then a switch flipped, and he never looked back. Is Mims about to go there? Also, good news…the QBs (Flacco or Darnold) have been getting him the ball/forcing it to him some. A good sign.
Is Mims going to pop like Jefferson? Probably not…only because we got Flacco-Darnold working it. However, with Jamison Crowder (2-26-1/2) getting top coverage attention as well as Breshad Perriman (5-101-2/7) – Mims can operate in the shadows a bit and get up to speed. Mims was getting a lot of good, easy pitch and catch passes to him this game. Mims reminded me of early Jefferson or early Diontae…such gifted feet going at a corner and cutting into a route, but kinda low key/not divas that they can be overlooked…and then ‘boom’ it happens.
I’m betting against a Jefferson-like ‘boom’ here with Mims, but I’m not ruling it out as much as I would have two weeks ago.
3) Breshad Perriman (5-101-2/7) – just posted 2 TDs and 100+ yards on the best coverage the Pats could throw at him with Joe Flacco as the delivery system. That’s not a bad thing.
Perriman is good, but this may be more about the Flacco-Perriman relationship from Baltimore than a true turn. It may be that Perriman is Joe Flacco’s BFF like Jamison Crowder is for Sam Darnold.
But what if Flacco has to start the rest of the season? Then Perriman is for sure in play. If Darnold comes back next week…we have to pause and wonder where he’ll go with Crowder-Perriman-Mims as options…whether there’s enough outside of Crowder.
4) Gunner Olszewski (3-16-0, 1-0-0/1) – the Patriots want Gunner to be a thing, to be the new Edelman. The problem is Tom Brady is gone. We don’t know who the 2021 Patriots QB will be, but Gunner has a shot to be a starter…for those in deep roster Dynasty.
In 2020, no FF chance…Jakobi Meyers is the king.
-- Damien Harris (14-71-0) looked very good again but got hurt late to take away a chance at a 100+ yard game again.
Two notes…
1) Harris is becoming the clear lead for New England, but the lead in NE is still splitting with Rex and White…and who knows about Sony?
2) No targets for Harris. Five games/starts, 2 total targets…just like Sony. You’re getting 10-15 carries and no catches with Harris…this is a PPR problem I don’t think improves over time. J.D. McKissic is going to blow Harris away in PPR right now.
Same issue for J.K. Dobbins or Darrell Henderson, among others it appears.
Sad, but true.
-- Some Jets IDPs catching my attention…
CB Bless Austin (12 tackles, 1 PD), in game he plays 90% of the snaps (6 games so far), is averaging 6.6 total tackles, 0.4 PDs, 0.3 TFLSs per game. He’s the clear starter right now (for now).
Neville Hewitt (7 tackles) is now Gregg Williams’ favorite ILB, and he looks better than I’ve seen him before…slimmer, quicker. He’s averaging 8.2 total tackles per game this season.
Rookie SAF Ashtyn Davis (5 tackles, 1 PD) started for the 2nd week in a row and has 4.5 total tackles per game in two starts. That’s not the great note…those are ‘meh’ tackle counts. The note is – I thought Davis was more of a coverage safety, a little finesse/soft -- but he’s playing like low key Jonathan Abrams (LV) right now…he’s trying to blow up ballcarriers. He looked very aggressive and menacing out there Monday. Get in early on this, in deeper Dynasty, I think his tackle counts are about to rise to 6-7 a game soon.
Snap Counts of Interest:
45 = Perriman
44 = Mims
31 = Crowder
23 = Gore
21 = Perine
02 = Ty Johnson
34 = Rex
28 = D Harris
21 = White
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 9 Game Analysis: Bills 44, Seahawks 34
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
Well, well, well…
Two inconvenient truths here.
1) The Buffalo Bills are better than the Seattle Seahawks. Not just because they won this game…they were just better anyway, and you could see it this season playing out…but proved it with a convincing win here.
2) Josh Allen 2020 > Russell Wilson 2020.
You’ll buy #1 before you’d ever entertain my #2. If you don’t think it’s true – you didn’t watch this game, nor this season. More on these two in a moment.
Buffalo pretty much dominated Seattle from the jump…24-7 Buffalo at one point in the 2nd-quarter. 41-20 Buffalo with 9+ minutes left but Seattle scrambled for 17 points late to make the game seem closer than it was. It wasn’t this close. Buffalo swarmed Russell Wilson on the pass rush and just blanketed their receivers. It was Buffalo’s best game of 2020…Josh Allen is better than Russell Wilson…and Sean McDermott is 10x the coach Pete Carroll is…and Buffalo winning here was cosmic justice.
The Bills are now (7-2) and headed towards the AFC East title. They should finish with 11-12 wins and Week 17 vs. Miami should not matter for the AFC East title…if it does, for some reason, the Bills will consume Tua.
Seattle is starting to crash back to earth…losers of two of their last 3 games. They are (6-2) but lucky to not be (4-4) at this stage. Fortunately, for them, the rest of the NFC West lost so Seattle is still likely to win the NFC West but Arizona and the Rams are still viable to overtake Seattle, especially Arizona (who has already booked a win over Seattle). We see Seattle finishing (11-5) due to a very easy schedule Weeks 12-15, where the literally have all four NFC (L)East teams in a row.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Russell Wilson (28-41 for 390 yards, 2 TDs/2 INTs) is a great NFL QB, maybe the best in-game, clutch QB in the league today, but Josh Allen (31-38 for 415 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT, 7-14-1) is just playing better overall in 2020. Not because of this one game…it’s been true all year, but most of us (used to be me) think Allen is not that good, because of his previous seasons. I don’t know if he took some special potion or sold his soul to the devil or what this offseason, but I’ve never seen a QB go from shaky/OK to great in one big leap and sustain it. All the great QBs of this day (Mahomes, Kyler, Dak, Russell, Rodgers, etc.), I saw the potential for it in their college scouting…saw some flaws but saw the star potential to varying degrees…but did not with Allen. Wrote him off with impunity. His first two seasons kinda confirmed my initial diagnosis. What he’s been doing in 2020 is Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert like – just flat-footed in dirty pockets making frozen rope throws on the money all season.
For the umpteenth time this season, I’ll say it…this Josh Allen thing is no fluke. It’s deadly serious. Many of you bought into him for deep discounts the past few weeks, and ‘here you go’…your reward Week 9. Finally, a game not in the rain for Allen, and facing a terrible pass defense – and he did what elite QBs are supposed to do in these situations.
The lone FF-problem for Allen is the late season weather, always a factor with Buffalo. No schedule real break here as we hit December. Week 13 at SF is a weather break maybe, and then you have to hope it’s not too bad at home Weeks 12 and 14, and at DEN Week 15, and at NE Week 16. The good news on that is -- Allen is built for the bad conditions…he strong arms it through the wind and can run for FF goodness if it’s too sloppy otherwise.
Russell Wilson has a bit of weather to deal with potentially. Week 12 at PHI, Week 15 at WSH…Weeks 13-14, 16 at home is usually OK in Seattle but not perfect.
-- As goes Josh Allen, so goes his #1-2 WRs…
Stefon Diggs (9-118-0/12) has been excellent, and FINALLY John Brown (8-99-0/11) got to play a game healthy and not in the rain, and a great matchup.
Diggs is always a WR1 here. Brown could be a solid WR2 ahead (as I’d been chasing for 3-4 weeks back), but I want to see a follow up performance in a dome against ARI Week 10, a mild revenge game for Brown to know he’s all good to trust.
-- You’d think it’d all be gravy for the Seattle #1-2 WRs, but it’s not.
It is for D.K. Metcalf (7-108-1/9)…the best FF WR with Tyreek and Davante. It’s Tyler Lockett (4-40-0/7) that has gotten weird.
Week 7, Lockett had that 15-200-3/20 game, but do you realize what he has done his last 4 games (ignoring Week 7) aside from that?
3.5 rec. (5.3 targets), 36.5 yards, 0.0 TDs per game…that’s a disaster.
Lockett has had two monster games since Week 3, and four WR4 performances otherwise. In those 4 games he hasn’t hit over 45 yards in any of the contests. What do you do with him Week 10? I think you have to keep Flexing him and hoping one of the big pops is coming…there’s too much passing going on not to have hope in Seattle with Lockett.
In the same span as Lockett’s last 4 games (ignoring Week 7), David Moore (4-71-1/6) has had three games over 50 yards and scored a TD in three of his last 5 games. Moore is starting to be a viable option over Lockett recently. Maybe Moore is the answer…or the reason Lockett is sinking?
-- The Bills decided to attack Seattle with an all-pass effort the first 2+ quarters of this game. When they tried to salt the big lead to the finish, it was Zach Moss (9-18-1, 2-30-0/2).
This backfield is kinda like a worse version of what’s happening in KC and TB…in Buffalo, when Devin Singletary (2-1-0, 3-33-0/3) was without an injured Moss earlier this season, Singletary was an RB2-3 producer. Buffalo doesn’t feature the run, and I think McDermott sees what Allen is doing and he’s riding what works.
So, what happens to Moss-Singletary when you split general RB2.5-3.0 work? You’re lucky to get two RB3s…more it’s two RB3.5s.
Moss is moving to a 50/50 split of snaps/touches now, and he has scored 3 TDs the past two weeks to prop his FF scoring up…but it’s dullsville otherwise with him. You have to sell him off ASAP in redraft. He’ll get no hotter (unless Singletary gets hurt, and even then Moss will be an RB2.5 at best. Without the TDs…Moss’s numbers are a dud like many other good RBs getting 7-10 touches a game and little of it passing game work – all you can do is pray for a TD.
-- D.J. Dallas (7-31-1, 2-8-0/2) has been better in his two emergency starts than Singletary or Moss have been in any back-to-back games this year. Dallas is getting the full run of the backfield due to injury, and he’s doing a solid job with it.
The moment Carson or Hyde are back…it’s over for Dallas for now. But we might get one more week out of DJD, if Carson takes another week off. We’ll know later this week.
-- Two IDPs to point out…
New SEA DE Carlos Dunlap (5 tackles, 1.0 sacks, 3.0 TFLs) splashed in his debut. He’s in a good spot to be the main pass rusher for this team and pace for 10+ sacks in a season type of work here. And Dunlop has been a producer for years.
BUF LB A.J. Klein (5 tackles, 1.0 TFLs, 2.0 sacks, 4 QB hits, 1 PD, 1 FF) has been filling in nicely for Matt Milano, who is now on I.R.
The past 4 games, with Milano out, Klein has averaged 5.3 total tackles, 1.3 QB hits, 0.6 sacks, 0.3 FF.
-- The Bills defense really dominated Russell Wilson for about 3.25 quarters, then Wilson went nuts with the all-pass against a prevent comeback attempt.
Sean McDermott may be the best defensive mind in the game. He’s getting key defenders back healthy bit-by-bit. They’ve been dominant in the past but not even close this year. I see their DST tide is turning a bit.
There may be a window with them Weeks 13-16: at SF, PIT, at DEN, at NE… the three road games could be against Mullens, Lock, Stidham.
Snap Counts of Interest:
38 = Moss
31 = Singletary
27 = Kroft
25 = Knox
14 = Gillam
31 = Hollister
26 = Olsen
21 = Dissly
31 = Homer
20 = Dallas
13 = A Collins
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 9 Game Analysis: Chiefs 33, Panthers 31
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
The Carolina Panthers are my favorite team in football.
Well, they are supposed to be my favorite team for 2021 and beyond. It’s like I made a reservation in advance. The Buffalo Bills are my 2020 team…I’m was just using them to get Carolina in 2021. I didn’t realize, until watching this very game…that Carolina was my favorite team already. It happened right before my eyes all these weeks and I couldn’t see it until now. This was one of the best coached, brilliantly schemed games of 2020…the Panthers just went toe-to-toe with the Chiefs and missed a last second win by a wide right, NFL record setting attempt field goal attempt (had the distance but bled right).
I thought this would be a year the Panthers got better as the season progressed and everyone would then like them as a sleeper team for 2021. They’re ahead of schedule. They’ve been giving very good team fits all season, playing them down to the wire since Week 1. They almost pulled a shocker here. Get ready to bet them as ‘over’ on win totals for 2021 and as NFC South champs as well.
In this game, the Panthers were beautiful. Going for it on 4th-downs, smartly…in fact the very first drive they took the ball into the red zone and were in a spot were 9,999,999 out of 10,000,000 football coaches would have taken a 4th & short easy field goal on the very first series to get the lead and make some kind of statement that they scored first, like it would matter vs. KC – when the real statement for settling for a field goal really is…is ‘we came to try and not lose by too much’. The Panthers went for it on 4th-down instead…and scored a TD – that was a real statement.
KC answered with a field goal. And then Carolina drove right down again but the drive stalled midfield and they pulled an excellent fake punt for a first down, and that led another TD – a shocking 14-3 Panthers lead into the 2nd-quarter. The thing was…Carolina seemed to have all these specific situational plays and situations ready to go and didn’t hesitate. They played to win the game in their preparations all week…and they all knew it/were prepared because they ran those critical plays with ease, with confidence. My gripe about NFL coaches is they play things so safe that when they do ‘go for it’ at times their teams freeze up because they’re not practiced to do such ‘radical things’. Not Carolina…not here. Carolina led 17-14 at the half.
KC got it together in the 3rd-quarter and jumped ahead 26-17…and then we’re all thinking the cute Panthers story is over, and now the big boys were in control…but the Panthers answered right back …the KC answered right back…and then Carolina answered right back – all this back and forth happening in the 4th-quarter.
33-31 KC with 1:55 left and Carolina kicking off post-their TD. This should’ve been the time the superior Chiefs got the 1st-down and then ran the clock out and left Carolina hanging. But the Panthers defense bowed up with a huge stop and got the ball back with 1:26 to try and get into field goal range for the win.
Down the field Carolina went but KC made a huge stop (incomplete pass) with 0:02 left, with Carolina trying to get closer for a field goal. On the last play, the Panthers lined up for a 67-yard (NFL record) field goal and the win…Joey Slye had the distance, but it drifted right quickly and ‘ball game’.
The Chiefs won but it honestly felt like the Panthers won. I think even the Chiefs would admit that. It wasn’t just a lucky, close loss mortal victory – it was a lesser roster, young team and rookie head coach playing a game better than their superior opponent and left knowing they should’ve won but that ‘they belonged’. This game, this loss is the catalyst for the Panthers to be a dominant force for years to come. Matt Rhule is going to be known as the one of the, if not the single best coach in the NFL in the years ahead…and he’s bringing this thing in months/a year+ ahead of schedule.
Carolina catches Tampa Bay next week, off the Bucs rebound game from their Saints egg on SNF…so probably another loss. Then three winnable games and then a tough ending stretch at GB, at WSH, NO finish. Carolina could’ve been a playoff team with a better schedule, but they are likely to finish with 6-7 wins this year and are my favorite for the NFC South from 2021 to 2025 at a minimum.
The Chiefs sneak away to (8-1) and go into their bye week. After their bye they have at LV, at TB…a revenge game and a going to be very much hyped game. If the Chiefs win those two games, they could go (15-1). I’m sure they’ll trip up somewhere and end up (14-2) and still be a #1 seed in the AFC. The #1 seed is SO important ion 2020…only one bye given in each conference this year…the other six playoff qualifiers have to play that first weekend (seeds #2-7).
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- First, we gotta talk about Curtis Samuel (3-13-0, 9-105-1/9).
You know where I’ve been with Samuel since the preseason, the summer, the spring, and back for 2-3 years. He’s like one of the faces of FFM…meaning, me proclaiming him a hidden star, and everyone getting excited initially, then it stumbling, and me complaining about his usage, and you getting tired of hearing about it, but I wouldn’t stop, and you’d get more annoyed and want me to just ‘give it up’, but I went down with the ship on him early in the season – it wasn’t working (FF production), so I had to cut him and move on. I was the last to leave the party…reluctantly…sadly.
Now, I’m extra enthused to have gotten back in early -- because this is not just a little hot streak he’s been on because of schedule or someone else got hurt and he slipped in – no, this is Curtis Samuel being so good at football he has forced the Panthers to make use of him. He’s forced Teddy to make him his most trusted throw. He’s forced the coaches to use him at tailback anywhere on the field.
Ron Rivera…Norv Turner…couldn’t see it. Had no real plan. Matt Rhule is going to be a great head coach because he’s not the typical idiot head coach that is blind to things working outside of the initial plan – when Rhule saw what Samuel was doing, he gave into it…started planning with/for it. No one has ever done that with Samuel. Credit O-C Joe Brady who should be an NFL head coach any time he wants…because he was talking about Samuel’s pop weeks beforehand – that they needed to get Samuel the ball because things happen. Usually, that’s the kiss of death for a player (when the coaches say things like ‘we gotta get him the ball’…it means they have no real plan to, or they wouldn’t even have to make the statement). But it wasn’t the kiss of death here…it was the breath of life.
Watching the way Curtis Samuel has developed is why I am a lifelong Panthers fan…for now.
Watching how Curtis Samuel has ‘taken’/seized this opportunity has made me a proud papa. This isn’t a blip, that I see…this is real and has room to run from here. I’ve said for years – Samuel is a legit, top NFL WR talent…not just a cute speedster…but a real WR. A tough technician WITH great speed. PLUS, he’s a legit tail back that could handle 5+ carries with his WR work.
The new Carolina regime has figured this out.
Carries + catches in a game in Samuel’s last four games: 9, 7, 8, 10. There’s not many WRs who have their hands on the ball that often, and none where 1-2 of the touches are goal line carries as a tail back.
I’m so happy for Samuel, and so happy for all of us who got back into this ahead of the crowd.
He’s a strong WR2 the rest of the season…I think. I hope. I’m still PTSD that they’ll take this away from him, but from what I see – they aren’t. They are still figuring out all the ways to use him.
-- I’m sure glad they eased Christian McCaffrey (18-69-1, 10-82-1/10) back into the lineup and split him with Mike Davis (1-3-0, 5-34-0/6) in his return game! Hey, the insiders said it was so…can’t we trust them?
Ummm, no…right back to a heavy workload and then some -- 10 targets in this game. You know why he was right back in heavy? Carolina tries to win games with their top players…thus CMC touches the ball 28 times, Samuel 12, Robby 9 times.
Mike Davis had some numbers, but it was later when CMC hurt his shoulder and could play the last few minutes. Otherwise, Davis was in for like a play per series, roughly.
-- Hey, Mike Davis (1-3-0, 5-34-0/6) got more touches in this game than ‘the great’ Le’Veon Bell (4-8-0, 1-0-0/1.
You thought I was delusional sticking by Curtis Samuel all this time…but I think you’re delusional if you thought Bell was going to become the main starter and have Cinderella story finish this season in KC.
Now, you’re stuck. Bell on a bye Week 10…and, what…he’s going to learn the offense more and become the main starter Week 11? You still sticking with that line of thinking? After this game…and all of Bell’s KC games…you don’t have the guts to start Bell Week 11. So, even if you’re right…you won’t use him until Week 12. Good luck with that.
It’s simple math happening here. Clyde Edwards-Helaire (5-14-0, 3-20-1/5) was a fledgling RB2 for KC pre-Bell…and now you split that output into two parts and expect two RB1-2’s?
You got a better shot at that happening with the Tampa Bay duo then the KC duo, but the RoJo-Fournette split is now dying as well.
Indy is running an RBBC. The Patriots always have. The Eagles would like to, but no one is ever healthy. When you get into RBBC’s with two or more healthy RBs – you get nothing but FF pain and angst, like with the Chargers RB rotation the past 3-5 games. RBBC RBs are FF death. Rare RBs left for FF that are talented, play in a good offense, and have no threat from the depth chart for main carry touches. When you get one of those guys you need to hold on.
We also need to include fear of RBs where ‘the mobile QB takes away too much RB goodness’ situations like Buffalo and Baltimore.
You’re stuck holding Bell for the next two weeks…and if another 33% snap count split in Week 11…you’ll be faced with dumping Bell for something more pressing/hopeful.
With CEH…you got the 2/3rds share guy who was an RB2 before…now, is an RB3 with some upside.
Hey…in critical times, I’m seeing Darrell Williams (1-3-0/1) pop up more and more. He looks better/more effective than Bell…who looks old and slow every KC week I’ve seen him. Williams played one less snap than Bell in this game.
-- I finally get a game where Tyreek Hill (9-113-2/18) sees 18 targets…and this is all I get? I mean, Mahomes missed Hill for about 3-4+ more catches and 150+ more yards and 1-2 more TDs in this game. It was on the brink of epic, but all we got was ‘great’.
I found a way to complain about a 30+ point game from my WR…making me a real fantasy owner!!
-- I’m taking my projections up on Teddy Bridgewater (36-49 for 310 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT). I didn’t think he could go to a next level this fast…new offense, strange surroundings, etc., but credit him and credit the Carolina coaches.
Now, can we go back to the 2014 NFL Draft when every analyst said he was a bad prospect because he had a bad Pro Day, because Mike Mayock said he did and then everyone just copied it. The bad press made Teddy fall in the draft…and Blake Bortles and Johnny Manziel were taken before him.
Hey, don’t tell me the NFL scouts don’t know their craft better than all of us. I mean the 2014 QB draft was their shining moment (of idiocy). Only seven years later, and we finally discover Teddy WAS the best QB prospect from this draft – better than Derek Carr or Jimmy Garoppolo.
So happy for Teddy…he has earned his moment in the spotlight. And he gets better every week. He’s only 28 years old. He’s got a few more years in him. Carolina will likely draft his replacement in 2021 or 2022.
-- Will CAR DE Brian Burns (3 tackles, 3 QB hits) please stop hitting QBs so much without getting sacks!!! Burns had three games with 3 QB hits registered in his last six games, but only 2.0 sacks to show for it. Eventually, he’s going to start ringing them up.
Also, eventually, the Panthers are going to be a good+ fantasy DST of the future. Why? Because Matt Rhule will make it so. He has a good young base to work with that are also getting better and better each week.
I bet Carolina will be a sneaky DST play discussion Weeks 11-14: DET, at MIN, bye, DEN.
Snap Counts of Interest:
25 = CEH
19 = Le’Veon Bell
18 = Darrell Williams
81 = DJ Moore
69 = Robby
60 = CSam
59 = CMC
26 = Mike D
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 9 Game Analysis: Packers 34, 49ers 17
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
The NFL must either be worried about getting these games in on COVID scheduling fears, or they just don’t want to make COVID a storyline…because they pushed this game out there when they had plenty of reason to delay it until Saturday or Sunday or Monday. I’m not saying shutdown the season because someone got COVID, but my first thought was -- they could’ve at least delayed this for the 49ers’ sake. However, the more I’ve thought about it today -- if they try to shuffle everything because of a few cases…then upcoming Sunday’s could be a cluster of rescheduling ahead. This one just happened to happen, timing wise, for teams playing on a Thursday – this unfortunate timing (positives popping up without more days to test out of to see if ‘false’) could’ve easily happened to those playing Sunday.
Instead of a reschedule, we got a game with the COVID I.R. list jam packed for SF…and thus got an inferior product to watch. This wasn’t even a game…it was 34-3 Packers with 6+ minutes left. How it got to 34-17 in the end, I didn’t know on Thursday night because I stopped watching it closely by the 4th-quarter. Rewatching it for study…it was your garden variety garbage time ending.
It’s hardly worth reviewing for FF nuggets because it’s so haphazard a game, but there are things to discuss.
First, the Packers get yet another schedule break. No team has gotten more regular season schedule breaks than the Packers the past two seasons. They faced the 49ers at just the right time…a team that crushed them twice in the 2019 season, this time they got them without half+ of their offensive starting lineup and about half their Week 1 starting defense gone. What was going to be a tough game, may have become their easiest of 2020 due to 49ers’ mass injuries and COVID. The schedule ahead for GB begs them to win a minimum of 12 games this season, with a chance at 13.
The 49ers have been officially wrecked. This was the dagger. All the injuries they have suffered the past two weeks came facing at SEA and GB…how unlucky. Next week they are at NO. The 49ers are likely to finish with 6-7 wins unless they really just start treating the end of the year as a training camp for 2021...then 5-6 wins likely.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- For weeks, the 49ers have not used Jerick McKinnon (12-52-1, 3-16-0/4) much at all…he’s run/barely played behind Raheem Mostert, Tevin Coleman, Jeff Wilson and even rookie UDFA RB JaMycal Hasty (4-3-0, 2-10-0/2). In fact, in a crucial game a few weeks ago…when all the SF backs were going down, it was Hasty getting the critical touches to finish out the game.
With Mostert-Coleman-Wilson out, for sure it had to be Hasty getting the shot at a lead role here.
Nope.
When it started out with McKinnon, I was surprised. I assumed they were then going 50/50…but we barely saw Hasty all game. As the game got out of hand quickly, I was like – good, Hasty will mop up and get numbers.
Nope.
McKinnon was taking carries down to the miserable end of this game. The fact that Hasty couldn’t get in some extra work late in a bloodbath beating tells me…I’ve over-assumed Hasty for the SF future. Next season, all these guys could/should be gone (Mostert, Coleman, McKinnon)…and with an obvious spot in this blowout to take a longer look at him, Hasty watched mostly.
Now, we’ll all turn on Hasty…and then he’ll take 30 carries next week. Kyle Shanahan mimics Belichickian ways at RB.
-- Jordan Reed (1-3-0/2) returned with a thud…one catch, just 13 snaps played…that was the risk of his return – he’s been so hurt for so many years, it wasn’t a given he’d just ‘bounceback’ here with Kittle gone.
Ross Dwelley (3-52-0/3) is the clear #1 TE, with Reed as a passing game TE…and maybe not 100% ready to give much to this declining passing game. Dwelley has more experience and offers in-line blocking to this offense.
-- Richie James (9-184-1/13) became the de facto #1 WR here with 9,000 other SF WRs out for this game. Whenever James gets shots, something good tends to happen…he just rarely gets a chance.
In his last three games, where he has had a catch or more in a game (back to 2019), he’s averaging 25.5 yards per catch. He makes things happen, but he’s buried on this roster normally.
The next time the top 4-5-6-7 WR/TE/RB weapons on the 49ers are all out at one time…I’ll try and remember James is the FF play.
-- Davante Adams (10-173-1/12) is always an FF-play. You didn’t need me to tell you that. What I would like to get off my chest is…
What exactly do offensive and defensive coordinators in the NFL do at work every week? Why is it we’re in midseason of 2020 and teams are still single covering Davante Adams, and single covering DK Metcalf AND still playing DK up in his face when that’s certain death for the CB?
Yet, Tyreek Hill has three defenders chasing him all over the field?
-- Marquez Valdes-Scantling (2-53-2/4) luckily found 2 TD passes. He’s a joke that won’t be funny or FF-useful the ROS when Allen Lazard is active next week.
-- Nick Mullens (22-35 for 291 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) was garbage until late…for the second week in a row. It’s all he’s got. Superflex players, we could be a week away from C.J. Beathard…who is a better garbage time FF QB, in part because of his rushing skills.
Snap Counts of Interest:
51 = Cracraft
51 = R James
33 = Trent Taylor
42 = McKinnon
15 = Hasty
42 = Dwelley
13 = J Reed
40 = A Jones
22 = Ervin
04 = Dexter W
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 8 Game Analysis: Raiders 16, Browns 6
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
I saved this one for the last of the week to rewatch/study. Why? The game was played in a crazy wind gust situation which put a damper on all the passing games and made this a conservative heavy run effort. It wasn’t a normal or real FF event, per se.
The Raiders played tougher in the cold…odd to say about a Western team going East to cold/blustery Cleveland, but the Raiders were the tougher squad. The Raiders gritted it out and got the lead and never relented. It shows me again how underrated/good/sound/tough the Raiders are and how sad sack the Browns are. With this weather, the Browns had to take advantage…they didn’t.
Las Vegas is now (4-3) and will be a playoff team…we just don’t know how high a wild card. We still see them with 9-10 wins, and 11 wins possible. They are one of the better teams in the NFL that gets no credit.
The Browns continue to plummet back to earth…now (5-3) and losers of two of their last 3 games. What was thought to be signature wins against Dallas and Indy, were wins against pumped up by the media teams that aren’t very good. The Browns have faced three good teams this year, BAL-PITT-LV…and they have scored 6-7-6 for points in those games. We see 8 wins max. for the Browns right now.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- LV went heavy on Josh Jacobs (31-129-0, 0-0-0/1) in this game, which made sense for the weather and…it’s what the Raiders do. However, 31 carries…and no TDs and no catches. The JJ pain continues.
Since Week 2 (Wks2-8), Jacobs is the #25 RB in PPR PPG in Fantasy…behind David Montgomery, Darrell Henderson, D’Andre Swift, among others. David Johnson, right behind him. It’s just not working well for Fantasy with Jacobs. Lots of touches, not much FF to show for it.
Jacobs has just 2 TDs since Week 2.
He’s posting an anemic 3.6 yards per carry on the season.
He has a low 1.8 yards before contact per rush attempt…when he’s in the game, everyone knows he’s getting the ball, so he’s stacked…he played 48 snaps and carried the ball or saw a target 32 times. 67% odds he’s touching the ball when he’s in.
Devonte Booker (5-29-0, 1-17-0/1) entered the game and looked 2x better, again, and even the TV analysts commented on how good Booker looks. It’s an optical illusion of sorts. Booker does look really good, but the defense changes from ‘stacking’ when Booker is in. They shouldn’t, when Booker is in the game this season (69 snaps), he’s carried the ball or been targeted 33 times.
The Raiders are Jacobs-based so heavily, teams play to that and thus try and make Derek Carr beat them on 1st/2nd-down.
All you can with Jacobs is hope the TDs start to come with all the touches. He’s falling into a buy low because YOU (who don’t have him) just remember the 3 TD game in Week 1 and think he’s great/elite – but his real FF-owner is living in a tortured hell they wish to escape on him.
-- Anyone dropping Nelson Agholor (0-0-0/2) because of this game…it’s short-sighted and you should pickup if it makes sense for your roster, especially non-PPR.
His prior three weeks as a starter: 3.7 rec., (5.0 targets), 72.7 yards, 1.0 TDs per game…as the real #1 for the Raiders. Bryan Edwards’ return isn’t going to change that…Edwards lost his window for 2020. I don’t expect Agholor to be a WR1 or anything, but a solid WR2-3 is realistic for the ROS.
All dome or Cali game events from Week 9 to Week 16 except Week 13 at NYJ.
-- Rashard Higgins (1-14-0/3) got given up on because of this game result too. Again, the weather conditions made this game ‘not real’ or ‘should be ignored’ for FF. Higgins can be a WR3 in PPR with Baker, as his new #1-ish WR.
One of the issues ahead is – the weather for CLE is much worse than compared to what LV/Agholor is getting. Nothing but cold/weather risks ahead for CLE/Higgins except Week 12 at JAX.
-- Trade deadline came and went, and the great David Njoku (1-19-0/3) is still a Brown. Austin Hooper could be back Week 10. All adding up to – the Harrison Bryant (3-25-0/3) blip is likely gone. Came and went.
-- Speaking of that weather for LV, I’ve mentioned it earlier in the week, but Daniel Carlson (3/4 FGs) is kicking in a dome or Cali in seven of the next 8 weeks. According to Yahoo numbers, he’s still available in 59% of leagues.
He’s the #3 PK in FF scoring per game right now.
Notable FFM kickers in scoring per game, by rank…
Koo = #1
Tucker = #2
Lutz = #4
Butker = #16
One of those facts is scary…
Snap Counts of Interest:
39 = Bryant
29 = Njoku
42 = Hunt
06 = D’Ernest
56 = Agholor
54 = Ruggs
15 = Renfrow
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 8 Game Analysis: Chiefs 35, Jets 9
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
Hopefully, for my fingers/typing, this will be the shortest game recap/report in history…because what is there to say/report on? The best team in football played the absolute worst team in football and the final score reflected just that. I got a couple notes to share, but there is not much on-field reality or trend to glean here…I mean, Chad Henne played a chunk of the game.
The Jets actually put up a fight…they scored three times (all FGs) on their first three drives and played hard, but they’re so undermanned they couldn’t hold off the KC offensive tidal wave. This Jets team from Week 8…they can win a game before years end. They’ve played two very good teams the last two weeks (BUF and KC) and the Jets have fought in those game. I wouldn’t be totally shocked if they didn’t upset the Patriots on MNF this week. I also wouldn’t be shocked if they lost by 20+.
The Chiefs cruised to victory. They toyed with the Jets defense. They are now (7-1) and all eyes turn to Weeks 11-12…at LV for their revenge game but with Week 12 at Tampa Bay lurking, which will be a potential Super Bowl preview, which I’m sure will be mentioned no less than 2.7 billion times that game week and in the Sunday pregame shows.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- One of the things I wanted to see/track here was the Chiefs backfield rotation early, before the game got out of hand. Was Clyde Edwards-Helaire (6-21-0, 3-10-0/3) the clear lead or splitting with Le’Veon Bell (6-7-0, 3-31-0/3) 50/50 or were there signs of Bell taking over?
The first four series, before it was out of hand…here’s who was in at RB by count each series…
1st series: CEH 4, Bell 3…first 4 for CEH, then Bell finished it.
2nd series: CEH 5…all 5.
3rd series: Bell 5, D. Williams 2
4th series: CEH 5, D. Williams 1
Total tally, CEH 14, Bell 8, D. Williams 3
My observation notes…
1) This still looks like a 65/35 split for CEH as the lead. There is no evidence Bell is being pushed but indicators that Reid wants to keep CEH starting, and Bell getting respect/touches as a support option.
2) One or the other could get hot and have the better game at any time.
3) Le’Veon Bell doesn’t look good to my eye. That old spark with Le’Veon, I haven’t seen it. He doesn’t have the juice he used to. Can’t hop around/past tacklers like the old days. His shiftiness is 50% of what it used to be. He’s a ‘C’ grade RB…useful, not embarrassing but I see no signs of old Le’Veon.
4) Darrell Williams (3-19-0, 1-7-0/1) slipped in and out in a minor role and looked better than either CEH or Bell. Not saying that Williams is taking over or anything, just he is playing with urgency while Bell, especially, looks ‘meh’.
I see no reason, so far, to get excited about much with Le’Veon here…it feels like LeSean McCoy 2019 in KC. It sounded good, but the trailers were better than the movie.
-- The Jets RB situation was differently disappointing…
If you predicted Samaje Perine would out rush and out fantasy score his relative La’Mical Perine (8-27-0, 2-6-0/2) in Week 8, then you’re a prophet…because it was true. After L.Perine played heavy last week and looked solid, he was just a rotational option with Frank Gore (10-30-0) this game.
Both lead RBs for the Jets are ineffective for a variety of reasons. You hoped Perine was going to get a more serious workload here and maybe rise a bit from there…not so fast. Who knows when or if it will happen? I really don’t care because Perine is a weak talent on a weak offense.
Ty Johnson (3-15-0, 1-6-0/1) is their best spark at RB, but I know this…the Jets have zero interest in seeing something like Ty through in an (0-8) season. They need to see more Gore, to see if that kid will work out to be their back of the future.
Johnson took most of his work at the very end in the merciful end of game series to get the game over with.
-- Denzel Mims (2-42-0/3) showed some tiny baby steps forward in this game. He still looks like a freshman in the first week of high school, lost/tentative (but so did Justin Jefferson early on), but early in this game Darnold was tossing jump balls his way and Mims got one, master of high point catches that he is. Mims had two catches pretty quickly into the game…and then none the rest of the way…thus, the problem with getting too excited about Mims or any non-Crowder here.
-- Another solid performance for the Chiefs-DST, as expected. You hoped for a bit more FF scoring, but in 2020…this was good enough.
The Chiefs-DST is #6 in FF PPG so far this season (FPros scoring).
When I pitched them as a savior DST after people started quitting them after Week 2 when Justin Herbert did well against them in his debut (none of us knew Herbert was ‘that guy’ yet) and seeing them dropped due to having to face the Ravens Week 3 – I wanted everyone to try and claim them and pair with the Dolphins-DST ahead as a great DST combo.
Since Week 3, when several of us started the KC-MIA plan, the Dolphins are the #1 PPG DST in fantasy…and the Chiefs #3.
Let’s check in on the plan going forward...
Week 9 KC v. CAR is solid…better than MIA at ARI.
Week 10 is still an issue due to the COVID schedule change. KC is on a BYE. MIA now faces LAC. You need another DST, I think.
You could drop KC-DST after this week if desired/urgent because Weeks 10-12 you have BYE, at LV, at TB. Not great for three weeks. Meanwhile, Miami has at DEN, at NYJ Weeks 11-12…so that is worth holding for if you can.
The perfect scenario is to find a 3rd DST for Week 10 and keep holding KC-MIA if you can pull off three DST for a moment. Here’s the perfect scenario…
Week 9 = KC v. CAR
Week 10 = ‘other’…DET hosting WSH? GB hosting JAX? PHI v NYG, either one? LV v. DEN? OR…just roll MIA v. LAC, and pray…and then have the following the next 6 weeks…
Week 11 = MIA at DEN
Week 12 = MIA at NYJ
Week 13 = KC v. DEN
Week 14 = KC at MIA
Week 15 = MIA v. NE
Week 16 = KC v. ATL (if this game matters for KC)
Snap Counts of Interest:
33 = CEH
17 = Bell
08 = D. Williams
55 = Mims
48 = Berrios
48 = J Smith
13 = V Smith
28 = Perine
20 = Gore
06 = Ty Johnson
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 8 Game Analysis: Saints 26, Bears 23 OT
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
The weather was ripe for a Bears upset…cold and windy, an anti-Brees/Saints type of weather. Chicago didn’t look great but led 13-10 at the half. The Saints took a strong lead early 4th-quarter, 23-13, and then the Bears scrambled back to tie it on a 51-yard FG with 0:18 left in the game…and off to OT.
13+ minutes of OT later, the Saints got into FG range and hit the easy game winner…sneaking out of Chicago with a 26-23 win. It wasn’t a masterpiece by either team but credit the Saints…they find a way to win these types of games.
The Saints are now (5-2) and head to Tampa for a huge road game for control of the NFC South vs. the Bucs. The Saints have a cake schedule the rest of the way, pretty much, so win or lose Week 9…they’re going to the playoffs one way or the other. We project the Saints to lose Week 9 and finish with 9-10 wins…maybe 11 wins max. A top NFC wild card player.
The Bears kinda deserved to lose, in a sense that they’re not very good…they are now (5-3)…a win here would have brought them to (6-2) and would have been an injustice to a 75% win-rate. This was a serious blow to the Bears’ playoff chances. We see them getting 8-9 wins in the end, with a shot to steal a playoff spot. They would have been in great shape for a wild card with a win here, but now they’re going to have to scramble and scuffle to get there. They might have 5-6-7 cold weather games from Week 10 on to help them…Chicago Bears type weather.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- I don’t know why the following is important to me, but it kinda just jumped out at me…
The Saints aren’t very good on defense…and there is no ‘turn’ coming. Marshon Lattimore is having his worst season in the NFL (he may be secretly hurt; he was really hurt earlier in the year). Lattimore used to be a shutdown now the QB rating against him is 109.0 with 62.2% of passes at him being completed.
Allen Robinson (6-87-1/7) having a normal good game for himself plus Nick Foles hitting on 28 of 41 passes for 272 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT, and leading the comeback late…in the cold and win…that’s not like the Saints defense to allow such things. They haven’t been good all year, and you thought maybe with a BYE week to prepare and heal they might turn upward like they usually do as the season wears on…but, nope.
They may be about to run into a buzzsaw Week 9 at Tampa Bay.
The potentially cold/non-passer friendly weather from Week 10 on…not great for ARob’s upside, but hard to make such calls so far in advance.
-- Part two of just how bad the Saints defense has become…
Anthony Miller (8-73-0/11) and Darnell Mooney (5-69-1/6) put up big games as well. Usually, the Bears feed ARob and everyone else gets scraps and it’s painful to watch them try to get anything to Mooney or Miller in games, but in this game…no problemo.
By passer rating, the Saints are the 4th worst pass defense in the NFL…a blip from being #2 to only the Texans. Something is wrong with the Saints defense.
…and it’s not the beginning of a breakout for Anthony Miller.
-- After a very quiet season for a (very high priced) special weapon they’ve barely used, Taysom Hill (5-35-0, 2-30-1/2) ran the ball a season high 5 times, for a season high 35 yards. He also caught his first TD pass of the year (after catching 6 last season).
Just noting…
Last year, Hill was lightly used then once he caught some fire and he was productive for several weeks late last year. Not saying it will happen now…but just noting it.
Also, if Brees is having some issues…what better way to take some stress off than more Hill work at QB in-game? And this week against the Bucs, Sean Payton needs to throw all he’s got at them…and Hill is usually the X-factor guy.
-- The other Saints TE…Jared Cook (5-51-1/7) has caught 4 TDs in his last 5 regular games. Which makes 13 TDs in his last 16 games as a Saint.
In his last 16 regular season games, Travis Kelce has 12 TDs.
George Kittle’s last 16 games…6 TDs.
Don’t go by all this too fast. Stop and think of that…it’s almost like it’s an error/typo. I know it feels like it because (if) you have Cook – you still think you have issues at TE, right?
-- In Saints SAF Chauncey Gardner-Johnson’s (9 tackles, 2 TFLs) last five games he’s averaged 5.5 tackles per game as he settles in as the Saints starting safety.
Saints DE Marcus Davenport (4 tackles, 0.5 sacks, 2 QB hits) has been back for three games this season, and he has at least one QB hit in every game…5 QB hits total.
-- We are seeing the Saints-DST is weak, but what about the Bears?
I’ve been suspect of just how good they are too. They’ve been strong early in the season…but the schedule has been a bit flimsy. The last two weeks, the Rams and Saints have had little issue with them.
In the cold and wind, they allowed Brees to throw for 75%+ completions, 280 yards, 2 TDs with no picks…and the Saints ran for 122 yards here.
Snap Counts of Interest:
68 = ARob
65 = Mooney
53 = Miller
64 = Juwan Johnson
58 = Tre’Quan Smith
39 = Deonte Harris
40 = JCook
16 = Trautman
14 = Taysom
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 8 Game Analysis: Bengals 31, Titans 20
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
This was not a fluke…the Bengals, yes…the Bengals, outplayed the Tennessee Titans. Honestly, this is 90% Joe Burrow…his talent, plus the team has an almost college atmosphere they’re playing with because of faith in Burrow. The Bengals aren’t very good, but they’re becoming ‘on any given Sunday…’ threats against decent or lesser teams. They can’t beat the big boys, but they can hang with everyone else…and beat them.
…which means the Titans are just a decent team. This should’ve been a game the Titans bagged easily, if they were a powerhouse, which they are not. 218 yards rushing by the Titans…and they lose by 10 points? How bad is this Titans defense? The Bengals converted 10-of-15 on 3rd-downs, that’s ridiculous…minus Joe Mixon and missing key O-Linemen on top of everything else.
Tennessee is now (5-2), losers of two in-a-row and lucky they aren’t losers of seven of their 8 games this year. They could be headed for a real tailspin here, but they do have two games with AFC South foe Indianapolis in their next 4 games – that will likely determine who is the AFC South favorite ahead. We see Tennessee winning 9 games due to a soft schedule but ending up at 8 wins is on the table…as is 10 wins. Another (9-7) could be on the way for this team.
Cincy is now (2-5-1) and had a chance to be (4-3) at this stage. They are a .500 type team with Burrow. The schedule isn’t too bad ahead, except two games with the Steelers plus one with the Ravens. They might steal one of those Steelers games. Still, we see 4-5 wins at the most for this squad at this stage.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- This was a subtle masterpiece by Joe Burrow (26-37 for 249 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT) considering he was missing two key OLs and Joe Mixon. Like Justin Herbert, no amount of O-Line degradation seems to phase them. It’s surreal from Burrow and Herbert as rookies.
Giving Burrow even more weaponry is the emergence of Auden Tate (7-65-0/7). He put on an absolute show in this game. I don’t know if there will be follow through on this, because the Bengals would never bench A.J. Green (2-19-0/5), when really they should just cut him and let him sign with a contender -- but they won’t so Tate can only be a 50% snaps guy (played 46% here). In his limited time in this game, Tate was unreal making a few circus catches. He’s like Tee Higgins (6-78-0/9)…only taller/bigger -- not speedsters, but have great catch radius and good-to-great hands.
Remember, last year when Tate emerged as a WR2.5 for a stretch for Cincy with Finley/Dalton?
The trio of Higgins-Boyd-Tate can put on a show.
-- Not helping Burrow…Drew Sample (0-0-0/1). Sample is playing a heavy majority of the snaps, but he’s a tugboat TE that can’t get open on his own. He can make some plays if lost/forgotten in coverage but there is no emergence story here at all.
-- Jonnu Smith (2-29-0/2) is the exponentially better TE than Sample, but the Titans are back to forgetting about him. After a top five TE1 start to the season, Smith has plummeted. In his last three games, he’s averaged 1.3 rec. (2.7 targets), 17.0 yards, and 0.0 TDs per game.
You want to have faith or think ‘maybe he’s hurt’ but we’ve seen this for two years now…the Titans just don’t make Jonnu a priority weapon. A guy with his talent…7 games played this season, and he’s been at/under 40 yards in a game in five of the 7 games. Unconscionable.
Remember all the cool, successful running plays with Jonnu last year? Same coaches this year…no rushing attempts yet.
He’s a TE1 threat each week…but a random one.
-- The Bengals spent millions on Joe Mixon, and yet the duo of Gio Bernard (15-62-1, 3-16-1/4) and Samaje Perine (10-32-1, 1-2-0/1) did just fine in taking down the Titans. Why NFL teams continue to plow money into RBs is beyond me.
Congrats to Perine for getting another chance, small as it was and likely never to occur again. He looked fine. Played solidly. Could be a power part of an RB-duo, but never will be.
-- But the off-the-beaten-path RB that I’m REALLY excited about here (because my life is pretty sad, apparently) is the rebirth of D’Onta Foreman (5-37-0).
A bunch of Foreman notes…
1) Was a 3rd-round draft pick of the Texans in 2017, and everyone was high on this 6’2”/233 powerhouse RB out of U. of Texas.
2) Mike Vrabel was in Houston when D’Onta was there.
3) In 2017, Foreman flashed as a rookie but ended up on I.R with a season-ending injury. In 2018, still had issues and may have been out of shape. In 2019, the Texans ultimately, abruptly dumped him after a promising career start/projection. The Colts picked him up off waivers 2019 and dumped him before the season and Foreman went unclaimed. In 2020, the Titans added Foreman to the practice squad, and they just elevated him for this game – but on top of his COVID practice squad rules activation last week they are now putting him in ‘protective status’ on the practice squad so he isn’t stolen/claimed away. Why?
4) Foreman looks the best, physically, I’ve seen him in the NFL. If you looked quick, you’d think it was Derrick Henry in the backfield (they are similar height and in range on weight). Foreman looked good and played really well here in his few relief carries in-game, not in any garbage moments.
I don’t want to get too fanboy, but I think Foreman is the most likely Derrick Henry handcuff now…not McNichols or Evans. It would probably be a McNichols-Foreman split, if it were to happen next week…but Foreman would be the horse you’d want.
Foreman is only 24.5 years old…he’s still got life. I’m adding him to the next round of the Dynasty Stash reports!!
-- Corey Davis (8-128-1/10) had a big game, as I (and many) suspected…because facing Cincy is a gift to #2-3 WRs, and #1’s typically. But #2-3’s can thrive because Cincy has such garbage CBs after Will Jackson.
I note this because you should try to sell Davis hot ASAP, if you can find a believer in his old draft stock/status (and thus they see this as ‘coming into his own’). This was a Cincy blip. Now, he has CHI-IND-BAL-IND the next 4 weeks…not as fruitful for a very average/generically good WR in a mediocre passer output offense.
-- I keep point out, the past few weeks, that the Titans-DST as having some potential ahead because of the schedule…Foles-Rivers-Lamar-Rivers-Baker-Luton the next 6 weeks is a festival of high turnover QBs to face, BUT…BUT…the Titans may be so horrific on defense it doesn’t matter.
The Titans-DST is only for the desperate/faint of heart.
Snap Counts of Interest:
33 = Henry
22 = McNichols
06 = Foreman
47 = Gio
24 = Perine
62 = AJ Green
57 = Tee H
55 = Boyd
33 = Tate
