NFL Draft 2022 Scouting Report: RB Isaiah Spiller, Texas A&M

*Our RB grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, leaked Wonderlic test results, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.

*We use the term “Power RB” to separate physically bigger, more between-the-tackles–capable RBs from our “speed RBs” group. “Speed RBs” are physically smaller, but much faster/quicker, and less likely to flourish between the tackles.

I see hope with Isaiah Spiller at the pro level, but I also see things that scare me that he’s going to fall short…or just be forgettable.

About a year ago, I thought he might be the best RB prospect going into the 2021 CFB season and then heading into the 2022 NFL Combine still had some hope, though it was waning. But after conducting a deeper dive into his game tapes and going over his NFL Combine and Pro Day work, I’m not as enthusiastic as I was a year ago.

Spiller has a solid resume as a top RB prospect for 2022…and a few rating services have him as their top-rated RB. An all-SEC freshman team RB in 2019 and followed that up with a 1st-team (coaches vote) all-SEC performance as a sophomore/2020. Not a bad start to his college career.

However, he was a little down in the 2021 season…just a 2nd-team all-SEC, with a career low 6 rushing TDs (after seasons of 10 and 9). He lost some steam with scouts in 2021 and then skipped the Combine speed drills, and when he did get timed at his Pro Day…it wasn’t great. A 4.64 at a Pro Day is pretty weak. Spiller is losing prospect momentum for the 2022 NFL Draft.

What keeps Spiller decently rated for the draft is his game tape/performances in the SEC. He has some really bright moments which outshine his flimsy Pro Day measurables. And I’m right there too…I don’t like his athleticism numbers, but the guy on tape shows better…although I see hints that the lack of speed might catch up to him.

I watched tape of Spiller’s 2020 games and then 2021 games, of the same opponent, just to get a feel for the difference a season made. His 2021 was universally panned as being ‘down’/not as good as his 2019 and 2020, but I thought he improved as a back in 2021.

In 2020, Spiller often had big gaping holes blown open for him…and he took advantage to rack up nice numbers. It wasn’t all O-Line, but there was definitely a boost from the space Spiller was given. But when there weren’t holes, Spiller spent way too much energy trying to avoid traffic in 2020. He was almost always trying to stop and turn and run the other way or around traffic…and sometimes he was able to. The more 2020 that I watched, the more negative I turned on Spiller (for the pros).

But in 2021, Spiller started following the blocking more instead of trying to make magic on every play. Honestly, I thought one of his best game tapes was one most scouts point toward as a concern – his 17 carries, 46 yards, 1 TD rushing performance vs. Alabama/2021. Yes, low yards per carry and final total…but within that I saw a Spiller that has a chance in the pros…a guy who does have an amazing ability to dodge tacklers and find space where you think there was none and make some hay. And it’s in the Alabama game you can see his growth as an RB – he’s following his blocking more, he’s not trying to dazzle or avoid with every carry…he’s willing to take what he’s given.

Something that I wrote down in my tape watching notes captures what I see with Spiller…I wrote that he “ran the ball like he was being chased by a monster and he had to run against/through a crowd to escape.” Spiller runs the ball like rushing water rolling downhill…if there something in the way, the water is going to fluidly find a way around it to keep going forward – and that’s Spiller’s gift. He looks a bit frantic trying to find an escape route amidst the defense, but the more I watched the more I realized it was under his control/just his style and more times than not he found the extra space and avoided the tackle. He’s got like a built-in ‘Collision Avoidance System’ when he runs.

Spiller has that avoidance gift, but it’s checkmated by his lack of true NFL speed. I’m not so sure he’s gonna be able to stop and turn and accelerate/escape in the NFL with the same ease as in college – it doesn’t work like that. His speed times say it’s a risk at the next level. But his tape says, he’ll find a way. I’d say he’ll be competent/useful in the NFL more than he will be a star or a bust.

Spiller has several things going for him – he’s got good hands in the passing game, he’s been successful in the SEC, he’s a pleasant enough guy to be around, he’s got good vision and escape-ability. But will he be quick/fast enough to thrive at the next level? Will he revert to trying to dodge away at the first sign of congestion? I think he can hang in the NFL, but I’m not so sure he can thrive.

Isaiah Spiller, Through the Lens of Our RB Scouting Algorithm:

 -- Twelve 100+ yard rushing efforts in the last two seasons (22 games).

 -- Had two 6-catch games in his college career.

 -- Stifled by Alabama three times (out of 3 games/matchups) in his college career, which worries me a bit…12.7 carries, 32.7 rushing yards (2.6 ypc) and 0.33 TDs per game. He’s going to face Alabama+ defenses in the NFL.

 -- Good numbers racked up in games against lower level D1 and FCS programs in his career…which is also a fear. His bigger games in the SEC came while facing the lesser SEC teams most every time.

 -- 8 career lost fumbles is a worry with his 8.6” hands.

2022 NFL Combine/Pro Day Measurables…

6’0.3”/217

8’6” hands, 31.75” arms

4.64 40-time, 2.65 20-yard, 1.59 10-yard (Pro Day times)

4.27 shuttle, no 3-cone (Pro Day)

30” vertical (not good), 9’6” broad (NFL Combine measurements)

The Historical RB Prospects to Whom Isaiah Spiller Most Compares Within Our System:

Jamaal Williams is a good comp here…minus the fact that Spiller is nowhere near the blocker Jamaal Williams is. Both guys who can handle themselves running the ball at the pro level, both have great vision/instincts, but no one sees or uses them as feature backs, for long (in the NFL)…but if thrust into a main role they’ll do a solid job.

Spiller is not as talented as Josh Adams (on the comp list below)…and that should strike fear on his NFL expectations. But Spiller walks into the draft more regarded (and less injured) than Adams; he’ll get more chances than Adams did.

*A score of 8.50+ is where we see a stronger correlation of RBs going on to become NFL good/great/elite. A score of 10.00+ is more rarefied air in our system and indicates a greater probability of becoming an elite NFL RB.

All of the RB ratings are based on a 0-10 scale, but a player can score negative, or above a 10.0 in certain instances.

Overall rating/score = A combination of several on-field performance measures, including refinement for strength of opponents faced, mixed with all the physical measurement metrics—then compared/rated historically within our database and formulas. More of a traditional three-down search—runner, blocker, and receiver.

*RB-Re score = New/testing starting in 2015. Our new formula/rating that attempts to identify and quantify a prospect’s receiving skills even deeper than in our original formulas. RB prospects can now make it/thrive in the NFL strictly based on their receiving skills—it is an individual attribute sought out for the NFL, and no longer dismissed or overlooked. Our rating combines a study of their receiving numbers in college in relation to their offense and opponents, as well as profiling size-speed-agility along with hand-size measurables, etc.

*RB-Ru score = New/testing starting in 2015. Our new formula/rating that attempts to classify and quantify a RB prospect’s ability strictly as a runner of the ball. Our rating combines a study of their rushing numbers in college in relation to their offense and strength of opponents, as well as profiling size-speed-agility along with various size measurables, etc.

Raw Speed Metric = A combination of several speed and size measurements from the NFL Combine, judged along with physical size profile, and then compared/rated historically within our database and scouting formulas. This is a rating strictly for RBs of a similar/bigger size profile.

Agility Metric = A combination of several speed and agility measurements from the NFL Combine, judged along with physical size profile, and then compared/rated historically within our database and scouting formulas. This is a rating strictly for RBs of a similar/bigger size profile.

2022 NFL Draft Outlook:

Projections are all over the place, but mostly he’s showing as a top 50 overall selection and usually a top 1-2-3 RB. I don’t think there’s a chance in hell he’s drafted ahead of Breece Hall. In the end, I’ll project Spiller late 2nd, early 3rd-round.

If I were an NFL GM, I’m not paying top 100 draft capital for a generally good RB. I’d be pretty much ‘out’ on Spiller, though I think he can hang in the NFL.

NFL Outlook:   

He should have good enough draft stock to get opportunities, and then he should be OK with those opportunities. I think he’ll be a solid/forgettable RB in a few years. 3-5+ years ago, he would be more interesting but now with all the RB talent flooding the NFL…not that likely to stand out or thrive…but if he gets a shot via injuries to others, etc., he could be very solid. He’s not a game changer…just useful.