- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 14 Game Analysis: Bears 36, Texans 7
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
The Texans had the ball first and stalled out to a punt on their first drive. The very first play of the game for the Bears on offense, David Montgomery ran off tackle through a wide-open hole and then took off for an 80-yard, virtually untouched, TD…and that was a sign of things to come.
The Bears made it 14-0 mid-2nd-quarter, then the Texans answered to cut the lead to 14-7. A few minutes later, the Bears registered a sack/safety on Deshaun Watson and the dam broke. The Texans wouldn’t score again, and the Bears piled it on.
The Bears were playing loose. There was joy on the sidelines (a big lead helps)…I saw real enthusiasm, confidence with the Bears here. The team is starting to gain some momentum behind the improved play of Mitch Trubisky. It could be a one-week blip, but for a couple weeks now I’ve kinda seen some things with the Bears offense that would give me hope that they might get to the playoffs with help from a win over Minnesota Week 15.
The Bears get a much-needed win to rise to (6-7). If they can beat MIN and JAX the next two weeks, they would be (8-7) heading to a Week 17 with Green Bay (who may not need the game/win to matter for seeding). Eight wins, with a win over Minnesota Week 15, might get Chicago in. Nine wins would get them in for sure. A loss to the Vikings this week pretty much dooms them.
Houston has been playing much better, but this game was in the cold weather (which they haven’t been in all season) and they played like they didn’t want to be there…as the score showed. Houston will wind up with 5-6 wins and a head coaching decision to make in January.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- You do realize Mitch Trubisky (24-33 for 267 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT, 3-26-0) is putting up better numbers than half the starting QBs in the NFL this season?
Five full start-to-finish starts this season, 12 TDs/4 INTs, (2.4 TDs/0.8 INTs per game) 1,208 yards (241.6 yards per game.
A 16-game pace of: 38.4 TDs/12.8 INTs, 3,865 yards.
Not bad for a guy who the football media has deemed incompetent.
I would maintain five things about Trubisky’s recent run as returned-to start:
1) He’s the #13 in FF PPG QB (4pts per pass TD) from Weeks 12-14 (his return to starting).
2) He’s had an incredibly easy schedule pushing his rise (GB-DET-HOU).
3) He has an easy schedule ahead…MIN-JAX the next two weeks, in good weather.
4) He still plays like a puss…he won’t run with purpose/authority.
5) Had he had a real coach working with him in his career, he might have been coming into his own right now as a top 10-15 NFL QB. He’s a very gifted (‘tools’) QB whose career is going to come and go as a failure…and I don’t think it had to happen.
Going to Buffalo in 2021 (for a few years under Sean McDermott) to be a backup to Josh Allen might help save his career…maybe.
Hard to confidently bet on him the next two weeks…but it’s been wrong to FF-bet against him when he starts/finishes a game this season. He’s looking very solid, confident the past few games…but I still don’t see any true ‘it’.
Career records as starters (same draft class):
27-20-0 = Trubisky
28-22-0 = Watson
-- I wish Trubisky would throw more to Darnell Mooney (1-5-0, 2-22-1/2), and the fact that he doesn’t shows Trubisky is not a very smart/good QB in general. It’s the easiest throw to an uber-talented get-it-and-go guy, but Trubisky only wants to throw medium deep by choice over working a short game.
Every time Mooney gets a little bubble screen, which has been his most likely target lately, something good happens. Every time Trubisky tries to hit him way down field…they rarely connect. Mooney’s TD in this game was a goal line bubble screen he dodged-ducked-dived into the end zone through several defenders for a TD.
Mooney can be a star…we just don’t know who his QB will be in 2021 to help make it happen or keep it grounded.
-- Trubisky is liking to throw to Cole Kmet (4-41-0/7) now, who is responding well to the increased targets. Seven targets in each of his last two games. 4.5 rec., 39.5 yards, 0.50 TDs per game the last two weeks.
Kmet is playing a ton of snaps the past four weeks…that isn’t changing, and it’s a very comfortable throw for Trubisky right now (what I see re-watching them together).
-- Chad Hansen (7-56-0/7) was Deshaun’s #1 target in this game…almost like a Cooper Kupp-Jared Goff type connection. Hansen has 7 catches in a game, which was a follow up from 5 catches for 101 yards the prior week (his first 2 NFL games of 2020) – aw everyone collectively yawns.
Hansen is a legit NFL WR…like a #3-4-5 WR. Handy/useful/reliable…and he’s showing that instantly upon being forced a chance due to all the WR injuries. He’s produced with Cooks Week 13, and without him Week 14.
Week 15 vs. IND? Perhaps it is plausible for PPR if they get down and are throwing.
Week 16 vs. CIN? Could be pretty good, especially if Cooks is out for any reason.
I’ve maintained for two weeks that Keke Coutee makes sense as a very comfortable throw for Watson…honestly, looking at the tape – Hansen is just as comfortable, if not even more reliable.
-- David Montgomery (11-113-1, 3-42-0/4) had that 80-yard TD run to start the game. Two things about it/his game here…
1) Wide-open hole and then as he was going into the secondary, Justin Reid made the single worst tackle attempt in the NFL in the year 2020. It was so bad that I would’ve benched him right after that (and he’s hurt and on IR now anyway).
You tell me what you see: https://youtu.be/dMOsFBFnKlc
Good on Montgomery for the TD run, but a giant hole and then a safety playing two hand touch…it helps.
2) After that carry, DM was 10 carries for 33 yards…3.3 yards per carry against a bad Houston run defense. Let’s not put Montgomery in the Hall of Fame yet.
-- As Duke Johnson 8-26-0, 2-53-0/2) failed yet again…Buddy Howell (11-42-0, 1-3-0/2) got a deserved shot to carry the ball in the 2nd-half, a quasi-Duke benching. Howell is a limited, try hard RB…and when David Johnson returns this week, Howell will not matter.
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Snap Counts of Interest:
51 = Kmet
29 = J Graham
61 = S Mitchell
53 = Hansen
49 = Coutee
40 = Fells
36 = Akins
15 = Warring
30 = Duke J
23 = Howell
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 14 Game Analysis: Broncos 32, Panthers 27
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
The game review would simply be: The Broncos returned a punt early in the game, and that seemed to set the tone for Denver to go with this game. Denver led 13-7 at the half. Eventually leading 25-10 after three quarters…and it just felt like Broncos were not about to yield to the Panthers this day. They didn’t. Carolina tried to sneak back into it late, but they couldn’t overcome Denver.
My gut feeling re-watching this game…with neither team having much to play for, Denver came out trying hard and really handling Carolina – despite many injuries that have plagued Denver going into this game. The Broncos are still fighting. They battled Kansas City to the end the week prior. The worst game they’ve played recently is their 31-3 loss vs. New Orleans – the COVID event/the Kendall Hinton starting at QB game.
Denver is now (5-8) and playing tough/never say die football. Unfortunately for them, they draw the Buffalo Bills Week 15…the best team in football. The Broncos will probably win at least one more game if not two to get to 6-7 wins for the season.
Carolina did not bring that never say die attitude to this game. Post bye week, they laid a mild egg here. The Panthers are now losers of seven of their last 8 games. Potentially, they’re going to lose out and finish (4-12).
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Bizarre game for Curtis Samuel (7-68-0/9, 2-22-0).
The guy is so clearly the best player the Panthers have in a given week (CMC not playing)…he’s the money receiver on 3rd-downs, he is the best running back on the team (CMC not playing), he’s can go deep to make plays or he can be a grinder over the middle or you can make him a bubble screen homerun threat.
There is no aspect of Curtis Samuel’s game that a very good Robby Anderson or D.J. Moore can best him at. And we’ve seen that on full display this year. It’s not just my two-year+ theory/hope speaking…now, it’s real. So, how does Curtis Samuel barely touch the ball in the 1st-half of this game…especially with D.J. Moore out? I think Samuel just had one carry and no catches/1 target by halftime.
Samuel’s very good numbers this game…all came in the second half.
I don’t know how Carolina can go through a game without realizing/planning this – that’s what scares me about Samuel every FF-week. They have no real plan for him to start, but then they get desperate and want Samuel to bail them out in the passing game. The cherry on top will be the HC and O-C probably saying during this week (like they have already multiple times this year), yeah…we gotta find a way to get Curtis the ball more.
Who’s in charge of that anyway? Like it’s some mystery, some riddle to figure out. How hard is it to call a running play for a particular player…or bubble screen? How many times are you driving in your car and forget that the big pedal is for ‘stopping’ said vehicle? What do these coaches do all week that when they get to Sun day, they forget to give their biggest playmakers the ball? Davante Adams and Derrick Henry have no such issues.
Regardless, Samuel was great here…he’s been really good for FF for many weeks now. But he can also get ignored. We mostly just have to trust he’s going to put up WR1-2 numbers each week in PPR, knowing there’s a risk where they ‘forget’ about him.
-- Christian McCaffery missed this game. He’s going to miss Week 15. Why are we even doing this now? Let the guy have the rest of 2020 off. There is no reason to roll him out there. If they do, it’s probably going to be in a limited capacity anyway.
-- Strange trend…
Teddy Bridgewater’s (30-40 for 283 yards, 0 TD/0 INT, 3-31-1) passing numbers are slowly trickling down into what you might expect from Teddy…8 TD passes his last 7 games, about 1.2 passing TDs per game…which is very weak.
However, did you know he’s rushed for 3 TDs in his last 4 games?
Teddy has 4 rushing TDs this season…7th most among NFL QBs. One more than Deshaun Watson.
You know who else is tied with Teddy with 4 rushing TDs so far in 2020? Jared Goff.
Strange QB names putting up rushing TD numbers lately.
-- I may have jumped the gun a little bit completely dismissing Drew Lock’s (21-27 for 280 yards, 4 TDs/0 INT) 4 passing TD event here. Yes, I know Lock had 13 TDs in 9 games this season. I know he is below 58% Comp. Pct. for the season.
I know I’ve made fun of him…a lot…all season.
Let me make a little case for him – to at least take a pause on the abuse we give him.
1) I thought Drew Lock really looked good here – the best I’ve seen him play since that one Houston game in 2019. On tape, with my eyes…I saw a little ‘it’ factor trying to peek its head out this game.
Inconsistency and fake ‘flashes’ of ‘it’ is something that has haunted Lock since college – 33% of the time he looks confident and lethal. 67% he makes dumb decisions and acts like a child on the sidelines. He’s not ‘mature’. He’s not the professional face of a billion-dollar business. He does possess some higher-end NFL talent/tools, though, physically. Mentally…not so much.
2) Lock had one TD pass and 4 INTs in his first three games of the 2020 season. However, in his last 6 games…12 TDs/9 INTs. He’s got a little 2.0 passing TDs per game trend rolling…and that’s upper end like the big boy QBs.
3) His O-Line is pretty good…he’s only been sacked 4 times in his last 5 games.
4) His numbers are rising without Courtland Sutton or Noah Fant around much/at all on his upswing.
I still see flaws more than not, but I am seeing a little spark. I want to write him off, and I’d bet against him having to declare the future today…but I said that about Josh Allen, who Lock reminds me of a bit. Can Lock get his tools harnessed? Is the NFL becoming so easy to throw on…that Lock (raised a new era passer) is now starting to get it a little bit…and might continue to gain ‘it’?
5) 14 full games played (Week 2 of 2020 he played a quarter, then was hurt)…he has a 8-6 record in those games with 20 TDs/16 INTs.
If I could ignore his worst game of his career (1 TD/4 INTs in a loss to LV this season)…he has an 8-5 record otherwise with 19 TDs/12 INTs in 13 career games…1.4 TD passes per game…not terrible, and rising of late. Ignoring that bad 2020 LV game, he has 11 TDs/5 INTs in his last 5 games. Not bad at all.
At this stage, I’m ‘going to put a pin in it’ on dismissing Lock. I’m going to look deeper, not be so dismissive…and not torch Sutton-Fant, etc., for Dynasty futures because of the ‘Lock (fear) factor’.
If 2020 has taught me anything, watching the difference a year made on Josh Allen…I should take a pause at this moment before just assuming Lock is terrible and everything else related is a nightmare.
We’re going ‘on a break’ with the Lock mocking (for a bit): https://youtu.be/iHlTvnCFmQ4
It’s going to be hard to forget what I (think I) know about Drew Lock.
-- If I’m moving to a more ‘open’/neutral stance on Drew Lock until we get more evidence…then maybe I should reconsider all his current receivers?
K.J. Hamler (2-86-2/3) had a huge game here because Lock saw him deep and planted a couple bombs right on him. Hamler’s style with lock’s arm can work – it did here nicely.
Tim Patrick’s (3-36-1/5) sudden TD spike (3 TDs his last 2 games)…maybe it can hold up? Ehh…not with that schedule ahead – top CBs Tre’Davious White and Casey Hayward the next two weeks.
Jerry Jeudy (2-42-0/2)? Nope, still not a fan. But he’s not terrible. I don’t like his fit with Lock.
Jeudy also needs about 200 yards in his final 3 games to blow my ‘under’ prop bet in his 830+ yardage total for the season. And if Drew Lock is suddenly not terrible…oh, crap.
Come on, hamstring!
-- Noah Fant got sick and left the game. No big deal, the now great Drew Lock almost made his backup TEs both TE1s this week…
Troy Fumagalli (4-53-0/5) had a catch and run 40-yard TD, but he was ruled down short of the goal line…TD reversed.
Nick Vannett (4-20-1/8) looked the most spry of the two slower TEs…and he saw 8 targets. Wow.
Vannett would be the sleeper play if Fant is out. But I think Fant is back this week. He's already back to a full practice on Wednesday.
-- FYI, Denver DE Jeremiah Attaochu (4 tackles, 1.0 sacks, 2 TFLs) is doing that thing again…that thing where he’s like a ghost in the NFL, missing games with injury, you’re not sure if he really still is in the NFL…then he returns to action and starts sacking things.
2.0 sacks, 3 TFLs, 3 QB hits in his last 2 games. 4 TFLs in his last 3 games.
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Snap Counts of Interest:
49 = Mk Davis
16 = Rodney Smith
02 = Cannon
45 = Vannett
39 = Fumagalli
05 = Fant
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 14 Game Analysis: Football Team 23, 49ers 15
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
Washington wins a game without scoring an offensive TD and with 139 yards of total offense. A pick six, a fumble return TD, 4 turnovers by the Washington defense…and every time the 49ers, the better team here, tried to crawl back in it – another turnover occurred at the exact wrong time.
I don’t know that Washington ‘won’ this game as much as the 49ers blew it. Regardless, it wasn’t a gem by either team. A defensive struggle/offensive failure with bad QBs…someone had to win, the team getting the turnovers won.
Washington picks up a HUGE win to get to (5-8). Seven wins can take the NFC East, and now The FTs just need to win two of their next 3 games. Easier said than done. Hosting Seattle Week 15…a likely loss. Hosting Carolina Week 16…could be a win. Week 17 at Philly could be for all the marbles. Washington could lose all three games, especially if Alex Smith is out Week 15 (or longer). We see Washington ending up (6-10) and not winning the NFC East…and that it came down to Week 17 at Philly, where they lose. But there’s definitely a path to them getting to (7-9) and winning the division. It’s not a given yet that Washington has this in the bag.
The 49ers have played the most brutal schedule of any team Weeks 5-14. They’ve sustained a ton of injuries (and lost Deebo this game) all year and then had their schedule bury them…and, yet, they still have wild card life. They have to win out. If they beat (at) Dallas this week, and then win a CRITICAL Week 16 at Arizona (which is possible)…they’d be (7-8) going into Week 17 vs. Seattle. Seven or eight wins could be the #7 seed. Winning out from here puts them in a strong spot for a playoff spot -- but winning (or losing) Week 16 at Arizona is really their season. We see the 49ers stumbling to (7-9) with (8-8) possible if Jimmy G. and Kittle can get back…but even if (7-9), they have some shot of being a #7 seed. This loss to Washington may bite them in a tiebreaker in the end if the FTs get to 7 wins and are in the wild card chase and not a division winner.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- If Alex Smith (8-19 for 57 yards, 0 TDs/1 INT) is out for Washington this week, everything falls…
J.D. McKissic (11-68-0, 2-180-9/4) loses all his PPR juice.
Terry McLaurin (2-24-0/6), you have to play but you’ll probably regret it.
If Dwayne Haskins (7-12 for 51 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) starts -- it’s a boost to the Seattle-DST this week.
The one guy who has been working with either QB is Logan Thomas (6-43-0/7), who is suddenly a top 5 type TE. He is moving and looking like a real top NFL TE now. It looks like a light has come on, or something. Whatever it is – it looks terrific lately.
I think Smith is 60/40 to start this week, but that’s an early guess.
-- There was a QB change about to happen in the 4th-quarter of this game for the 49ers, but Nick Mullens (25-45 for 260 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) led a scoring drive to cut the lead to 8 pts and then C.J. Beathard stopped warming up on the sidelines.
The switch to CJB is close to happening…the leash is getting shorter on Mullens. It doesn’t change SF FF projections much except CJB is a better fantasy scorer, to me, than garbage-time Mullens.
-- I believe Raheem Mostert (14-65-0, 2-5-0/4) will miss this week. If so, Jeff Wilson (11-31-1) becomes the #1 splitting time with (probably) Jerick McKinnon…but maybe Tevin Coleman gets some touches…if he is still alive. Wilson would be in a prime spot for larger than normal touches for an SF RB if Mostert is out.
-- I would project that Antonio Gibson (DNP) will be out again this week with turf toe but the door’s not totally closed on a return.
-- You can tell many FFMers invested in Deebo Samuel (1-9-0)…anytime a WR gets hurt on his first touch and is gone for the game – that’s one of my guys. Everyone else’s WRs go off in a game and then get hurt with 5 minutes left in the game. My guys, 1st-play…done. Parris Campbell. Diontae Johnson 2-3x this year. Deebo here.
Brandon Aiyuk (10-119-0/16) inherits all of those juicy Deebo touches – Mullens was throwing to him like no one else existed in this game. Great set up vs. Dallas’s backup CB group this week.
Richie James (3-33-0/3) might be a sneaky deep roster league flyer for the week with Deebo gone and so much attention going on Aiyuk. Jordan Reed (2-13-0/5) might benefit as well.
-- Washington-DST is the talk of the week with two defensive scores in this game. Defensive scores are sweet, but random. The 49ers put some yards up against the FTs but the turnovers killed them. The fumbles just bounced Washington’s way.
I’m not anti-Washington-DST but I’m not totally convinced this is an elite unit yet…just a great front line and a lot of young players and/or holes everywhere else.
-- Everyone is talking WSH-DST, but the best defense in this game was the 49ers-DST. No offensive TDs allowed. Since they got Richard Sherman back, they really stifled the Rams Week 12. They had Buffalo flustered for a bit, but then yielded to that great offense…no crime in it. Then shutdown Washington here, as a top defense should. It’s a sneaky top 5-10 NFL defense with Sherman-Verrett as their CB-duo.
Week 15 they face the patchwork O-Line of the Dallas Cowboys and Andy Dalton. I like the 49ers-DST a lot here.
Snap Counts of Interest:
74 = Aiyuk
72 = Bourne
26 = R James
01 = Deebo
40 = Mostert
39 = J Wilson
02 = Coleman
00 = McKinnon
59 = Cam Sims
58 = McLaurin
23 = Stv Sims
41 = JD McKissic
30 = Barber
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 14 Game Analysis: Colts 44, Raiders 27
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
This game started out as ‘back-and-forth’…a quick 10-0 lead for Indy, but by mid-2nd-quarter it was 14-10 LV. The Colts led 20-14 at the half. It was a ball game.
From there, the Colts started to pull away. The Raiders were down 27-20 to start the 4th-quarter. Still a game. Then the Colts got up 34-20 and the Raiders started stalling, a tipped pass pick six for Indy with 5+ minutes left put it away. The Colts were the better team. The Raiders hung in as long as they could but were simply outmatched.
In response, the Raiders fired their defensive coordinator in Jon Gruden’s anger…odd to happen on a short week (they play TNF).
This loss might be a death blow to the Raiders wild card hopes. The Raiders have lost three of their last 4 (with a lucky last second win vs. the Jets) and are now (7-6) and fading. The Raiders need to win at least two of their final 3 games to get to 9 wins for playoff hopes – and one of those wins MUST be Week 16 v. Miami. We see the Raiders getting to (9-7) but losing to Miami…and the Raiders ending up (8-8) is very much in play as well. It all seems to lean towards the Raiders missing the playoffs. Strange for a team that almost beat KC twice…
Just like it was a deadly loss for LV, this was a big win for Indy…pretty much launches them into the playoffs as either AFC South champs or a wild card. The Colts are likely to win at least 11 games and wind up the AFC South champs.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- I want to say this is the breakout performance for Jonathan Taylor (20-150-2, 2-15-0/2), but I’m not feeling it. I’m not trying to be negative or contrarian for a gimmick. You know I get high and low whenever I see the need and beat the drum on it. I call it as I see it/I write as I sense it…as a guy watching all these games, scouting all these players in college – I’m watching, looking, searching constantly. I’m drunk with watching and analyzing these players.
I’ve imbibed a lot of Jonathan Taylor tape this season…and I’m just not ready to throw a ticker tape parade because of this game. I’m a huge fan, had a great scouting grade on him…I just haven’t seen the ‘it’ factor yet.
Here’s a few of my notes/thoughts on the situation right now…
1) Weird flow to this game…and Frank Reich’s RBBC flow worries me. Taylor exploded out of the gates…like 6-7 touches on the 1st-drive, 62 yards total. Taylor WAS the drive with chunk plays (runs, and a pass play). Then he was out of the game in the red zone as Indy scored the first TD of the game…with Taylor watching from the sidelines.
Then he wasn’t in to start the next drive…he just kinda disappeared sprinkling in and out of the game like he was a random chump. Later in the game he popped a 62-yarder that was quite impressive – he had a wide-open hole and ran through it (which isn’t that impressive, per se…with such an open space to run) but the impressive part was he just hit the accelerator and was gone. He outran 3-4 LBs and DBs in hot pursuit…and hit paydirt/a TD.
Basically, Taylor dominated the first drive…then was gone for a while…then later his a 62-yard homerun ball…that was it. Two drives he mattered, all the other ones not really.
Does Ezekiel Elliott (prior to 2020) or Derrick Henry or Saquon Barkley or Dalvin Cook get treated like this?
2) All that said…this is two bigger games in a row for Taylor output. I think we can have FF confidence Week 15 but doesn’t be totally shocked if he’s rotating like a chump again.
3) On tape, he looks good…but also looks like 25-35 other good RBs I watch all week. I would not say Taylor looks like ‘wow’. I am expecting ‘wow’ from him, and I don’t see it yet. I see really good, promising, maybe ‘wow’ if he stayed in the game to chop away at defenses throughout the game – but I’ve just not seen ‘it’ yet.
Just some examples…Damien Harris looks like a better talent, to me. Darrell Henderson looks better as a runner, to me. Ronald Jones, ditto. Guys (examples) we don’t think would be in Taylor’s class.
It all comes down to ‘usage’ to delineate them.
-- Taylor looks as good as Josh Jacobs (13-49-0, 3-25-0/5) has in the NFL. That’s a good comp…Taylor probably a step better but they’re close enough.
The difference being – Josh Jacobs is worshipped by Jon Gruden. While Frank Reich could probably care less if Taylor was active, and he probably wishes Marlon Mack was still there.
-- Thank you once again, T.Y. Hilton (5-86-2/7)!
I built many 2020 FF teams on Hilton-Marvin Jones-Diontae as ‘WRs taken later’ and Hilton-Marvin died right away to start the season…but now they’re like two top 10-15 WR fantasy producers over the past 4-5 weeks. NOW they are popping…after we all cut them/moved on.
Thanks for nothing.
Hilton and Jones did nothing early on, while Diontae shined. Now Hilton-Jones are rising…and Diontae can’t catch anything.
Isn’t fantasy football fun?
The randomness, the twists and turns – it’s the secret ingredient that makes this game great. Where else can you have this type of day-to-day engagement and constant puzzles to figure out?
Your bizarre thoughts/mental anguish that you can subdue fantasy football sit/starts/trades on every player for every single week without fail, and then when you don’t you throw a temper tantrum – that’s on you. You wish you had T.Y. Hilton now.
You will not win every hand of poker dealt…nor every round of blackjack…nor time every stock purchase you make just right – but you do expect to absolutely predict football results without error every week.
Why do you do this to yourself?
Oh, and T.Y. Hilton is a great start Week 15 vs. Houston with no secondary to speak of.
What happened when you stayed patient after a slow start to the 2020 season (slow, in part due to TYH and Marvin)? Your teams started popping as we went. We fixed the glitch as we went.
Patience is a virtue.
My scouting is a skill.
Your decisions to act off my scouting and what your eyes see watching games = you’re a good ‘player’ of the game’. But you can’t be perfect. Sometimes injuries and bad matchup weeks/schedules get us all, no matter how great the planning…or a toss-up on player A or B, and you go A and then B goes nuts with scoring on your bench. It’s a hard bucking bronco to break, this thing called fantasy football.
-- I don’t want to talk about Colts TEs, but Jack Doyle (3-44-0/3) led the TE-trio in snaps and targets.
It’s not worth mentioning, really. Except to note every few weeks it’s a different Colts TE perking up. Trey Burton is now dead. Next week, he might score two TDs. Too hard to predict the Colts TE trend.
The best bet on it = don’t even mess with Colts TEs for FF in 2020.
-- Nelson Agholor (5-100-1/9) now has 7 TDs this season. He had 7 TDs total in 2018 and 2019 in 27 games played.
The #36 non-PPR WR in PPG. #28 non-PPR WR in raw total FF points.
Just noting – Bryan Edwards is better than Nelson Agholor, and at worst he’ll get those types of numbers in the future when Agholor is gone or just replaces him in targeting – but I think Edwards is going to best the Agholor 2020 numbers in the years to come.
Have to wait until 2021 to see, hopefully 2021. Don’t lose faith just yet in BEdw…if Agholor can do this, how much better will Edwards do? I’m going to go into some cheap/buy-mode on Edwards in dynasty this offseason.
-- The Colts got a pick six to make the DST scoring look good, but it was heading towards trouble before that. The Colts D has allowed 26 or more points in a game in three of their last 4 games. They are not a shutdown/high-end defense.
Shaky but plausible vs. Houston this week. The Texans were the one team in the Colts’ last four games NOT to have hit 26+ but remember…Houston had 20 points and were on the goal line to hit 27/win that game when a bad center exchange fumble ruined everything. Should have been four games in-a-row allowing 26+ points in a game.
Snap Counts of Interest:
29 = Jacobs
21 = Richard
19 = Booker
45 = Agholor
41 = Ruggs
38 = Renfrow
20 = Bry Edwards
34 = J Taylor
22 = Hines
06 = Wilkins
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 14 Game Analysis: Chargers 20, Falcons 17
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
Another week…another game Anthony Lynn tries to invent new ways to look dumb/like he has no idea what he is doing and finding new ways to lose games – but the joke is on the Falcons…the Fighting Anthony Lynn’s won a game, a late game comeback by Justin Herbert to save the day.
The Chargers are better/more talented than the Falcons’, but through Anthony’s ridiculousness…the Chargers were losing this game 17-10 with just a few minutes remaining. The most egregious thing Lynn has done recently is reel Justin Herbert in to becoming a screen pass game QB because the ‘holy’ Austin Ekeler returned to action. My parents and grandparents…and wife…and kids…and my dog, combined, don’t love me as much as Anthony Lynn loves Austin Ekeler (and Tyrod Taylor).
The one obvious God’s gift Lynn has…Justin Herbert…he’s either tried to keep him behind Tyrod Taylor – or his new alternative is just having him throw bubble screens to Ekeler every other play. Wasting Herbert’s gift – downfield throwing. Hebert’s gift (and results) has been historic this season, so it only makes sense to build the offense away from what Herbert has done and make everything Ekeler-centric.
You cannot make up how utterly ridiculous/derelict NFL head coaches are. Mike McCarthy and Anthony Lynn make more money in a few days at their jobs than most of us will all year but a wide margin. I try not to dwell on it. Just weeping into my pillow quietly at night.
Once down 17-10 with minutes remaining, Herbert was unleashed and led a late TD drive – scoring with 1:10 remaining to tie it 17-17. A Matt Ryan pick on the very next offensive play got LAC back the ball with 0:36 left at their own 33-yard line. Herbert hit an 8-yard, then 15-yard pass play back-to-back, and then a 25-yard precise bullet with 0:16 left to get into FG range for the win.
None of this will register with or dawn on Lynn for his next game.
The Chargers made the mistake of beating Atlanta and thus going to (4-9) and losing the draft pick tiebreaker spot to (4-9) Atlanta. The Chargers lose when they win. Neither team is going anywhere the rest of this season, and both should be searching for new head coaches in January.
I swear, if they bring back Anthony Lynn for 2021…
You know they’re going to, right? Just to mess with me. Him and Matt Nagy are locks to retain their jobs just to torture me. Darn you NFL!!!!
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- I want to point out two things about the Atlanta passing game…
1) You do realize that Matt Ryan (21-32 for 224 yards, 1 TD/3 INTs) has totally collapsed this season? It’s a borderline Carson Wentz collapse, but no one cares about the Falcons or Matt Ryan, so it’s not harped on like it is with Wentz.
4 TDs/6 INTs in his last four games.
Since Week 3, and minus his one good game in that stretch (Week 6 v. MIN, 4 TDs/0 INT), Ryan has thrown for 9 TDs/10 INTs in that span…10 games. He’s thrown for 300+ yards in a game just twice in his last 12 games. All this is very un-Matt Ryan like.
2) The best thrower/QB on the Falcons is WR Russell Gage (5-82-0/7, 1-1 passing, 39-yard TD). He’s thrown two passes this season, both beautiful deep throws…one for a TD here, and the other a 30+ yard TD to Julio Jones who dropped it.
Gage can really throw the ball, so it only makes sense that he threw his first beauty Week 2…and no one ever called the play again for 12 weeks. Oh, Dirk Koetter…you’re such an offensive guru. I can’t believe Matt Ryan has turned to crap and Dan Quinn got fired after 4 weeks when he has your utter offensive brilliance on his staff. One guarantee for 2021…Dirk Koetter will be the O-C for an NFL team in 2021, once fired from Atlanta. The NFL can’t help itself but to do dumb things repeatedly.
Aside from Gage at QB, and Koetter – Russell Gage is a really quality/solid slot WR. He kinda falls between the cracks but he shouldn’t. His last 4 games: 4.7 rec., 56.3 yards, 0.25 rec. TDs per game…along with a passing TD. He’s a WR3 with WR2 upside that he’ll throw for a TD in a game…unless Koetter waits 12 more weeks to call the play again. FYI…he won’t have a chance to do so 12 weeks from now in Atlanta…
Passing aside, Gage is a nice, legit NFL slot WR.
-- Justin Herbert (36-44 for 243 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT) is so-so-so very good. It’s a shame what Lynn has done to him lately. Anthony Lynn only wants Austin Ekeler to touch the ball. Herbert, and his successful downfield passing ways, is annoying to Lynn.
The Herbert numbers with and without Ekeler all game…
1.0 TD passes/1.25 INTs per game = With Ekeler (5 games)
2.85 TD passes/0.59 INTs per game Without Ekeler (7 games)
-- Justin Jackson (3-9-0, 3-10-0/3) was activated off IR for this game…and thus Josh Kelley (another Lynn non-favorite) goes inactive.
-- Todd Gurley (6-19-0, 2-12-0/3) looks sketchy to me still.
The speed/movement is getting back to more normal, coming off his knee issues from prior weeks…the burst was showing a bit in this game, but he’s slowing down/hesitating into contact…not like Gurley. I’ve seen him cowering into contact a bunch Weeks 12-13, but just some this Week 14 game. I think he’s subconsciously trying to protect himself. I hope the Falcons just stop forcing him out there…but they won’t.
Ito Smith (11-42-0, 1-3-0/1) will be in a support tole again this week.
-- Tyron Johnson (6-55-1/7) played a quality game here. Nothing special…just good/useful. Mike Williams got hurt very early and thus Johnson got a big opportunity.
If Williams (and Allen) can play this week, Tyron is meaningless for FF Week 15. As is Jalen Guyton (1-8-0/3).
-- LAC IDP notes…
Kyzir White (7 tackles) is back and right back into the lineup for 7 tackles…he’s been a good tackle accumulator all season, when playing.
White’s return didn’t stop/slow Kenneth Murray (7 tackles)…Murray looked good again, had 7 tackles, played 98% of the snaps. He’s really settling in now as a foundational ILB for LAC.
Snap Counts of Interest:
61 = Guyton
57 = K Allen
54 = Tyron Johnson
02 = Mk Williams
44 = Ekeler
23 = Ballage
11 = JJax
48 = Ridley
41 = Gage
28 = Powell
13 = Blake
33 = Stocker
33 = H Hurst
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 14 Game Analysis: Titans 31, Jaguars 10
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
This was the garden-variety beat down of the Jaguars you would expect to happen with a bad team purposefully starting Mike Glennon. The Jaguars almost scored first, but they had their FG attempt blocked and it was all downhill from there. 17-3 Titans at the half. 31-3 Titans mid-4th-quarter. 31-10 final.
I might have saved this game report to the very last one of the week, because it’s kinda useless for projecting ahead handling the Jags is not a big deal, but I wanted to explore/look at the change back to Gardner Minshew…and the impact that might have on FF-things, if any.
Why is Doug Marrone going back to Minshew now…why try to stop losing for Trevor Lawrence? I think they see the Jets’ chances to win a game the last few weeks went nowhere and now they play three playoff type teams to end the season…the Jets aren’t winning a game this year (even Week 17), so the Jags ain’t getting Trevor Lawrence.
*Although if NE is out of the playoff race, they might lose to NYJ Week 17, on purpose, so the Jets don’t get Trevor.
Jacksonville is more dangerous when Gardner Minshew is starting, and his only real shot at another win is probably Week 16 hosting Chicago. We still project Jacksonville to lose out and finish (1-15), a game behind (0-16) NYJ for the #1 overall draft pick in 2021.
Tennessee took care of business and jumps to (9-4), on their way to (11-5) most likely…and either the AFC South champs or a strong wild card.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- So, Gardner Minshew (18-31 for 178 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) is back in…what does this mean for fantasy? Obviously, it helps all the WRs…except Mike Glennon’s favorite Collin Johnson. Minshew is better with Chark-Cole-Shenault.
Let’s look at each of them for the road ahead…
1) D.J. Chark (2-16-0/9) – for sure Minshew’s #1 look but there are several issues to worry about here. First, Chark has been nothing of late…total garbage for most of the last 8-9 weeks. However, most of his tail off has been with Luton-Glennon.
4.4 rec. (6.8 targets), 49.5 yards, 0.50 TDs per game Weeks 1-6 with Minshew…not great but not bad. Better in games with favorable matchup, total failure facing top CBs (HOU/Roby and LAC/Hayward).
Chark draws Marlon Humphrey or Jimmy Smith Week 15…so, I wouldn’t go there.
2) Keelan Cole (7-67-1/12)? I never know what Cole we’re getting…he’s either a WR1 or WR8 week-to-week. More not-WR1-2 weeks than is. He gets whichever Ravens CB is not covering Chark…but if Jimmy Smith is out for this game, maybe Cole has some hope for a week.
3) Laviska Shenault (6-49-0/11, 1-2-0) might draw Marcus Peters, and that’s the best BAL matchup to get (if Smith is playing). However, Shenault hasn’t been overly impressive. He’s been fine/solid-ish but nothing special. Under 50 yards receiving the past 6 games in-a-row. Not a lot of ‘wow’ watching him play.
I like all the Jags’ WRs better with Minshew, but Gardner’s jump back in comes right when they face the very stout Ravens secondary.
-- Quick Jags’ RB note…
Devine Ozigbo (4-30-0/4) got into the game late for some garbage-time/game-ending passing game work. Ozigbo definitely looks the part…looks like he’s been lifting his entire time on I.R. He looked quick and lean/muscular not bulky-muscular. He might get a few touches down the stretch just to relieve James Robinson.
I would say that Ozigbo is the for-sure handcuff for JRob the ROS, if that even matters.
-- The Titans’ TE situation is as messy and useless as the Colts TE trio…four TEs are rotating in-and-out for the Titans now.
Jonnu Smith (2-20-0/2) is still ‘the leader’/the starter, but he has been nothing for fantasy since like Week 4…yet, I still see him ranked in the top 15 TE week-to-week for analysts. He isn’t even in the top 25 right now.
Geoff Swaim (3-34-1/3) plays a lot and caught a TD pass here…but he’s nothing exciting for FF.
The Anthony Firkser (1-5-0/1) hype train has derailed…MyCole Pruitt plays more than Firkser. And for the record, Firkser looks terrible on tape lately too. No interest now or later with him.
-- I cannot figure out Corey Davis (3-34-0/3). This should have been a great spot for him, and yet he did little…nor was he targeted much.
One TD in his last 6 games.
3-11-3 for catches in a game the past three games.
I think his 11-182-1/12 game Week 13 vs. CLE has everyone jacked up but outside of that he’s been a WR3-4 since Week 9 (ignoring Week 13).
Good matchup with DET this week, but is it? Can Davis do anything with it?
-- Two IDP notes…
TEN SAF Armani Hooker (7 tackles, 1 TFL) got the start with Kenny Vaccaro out…and delivered a nice FF game. He should be starting over Vaccaro anyway. Hooker looks very solid/promising for IDP in the weeks/years to come.
JAX DE/OLB K’Lavon Chaisson (0 tackles, 3 QB hits) is starting to percolate a little, but the Jaguars aren’t pushing him into playing time for some reason. He’s a top draft pick but plays about half the snaps in games.
1.0 sacks this year…terrible.
2 QB hits total Weeks 1-12, but then 5 QB hits just the last two games…he’s starting to show signs.
And from watching him here…there were some moves he put on where he was unblockable, too quick/fast and spin moving away from blockers with ease. His time might be about to come.
-- The Titans-DST is untrusted by all, but they had a nice game here. As they should/can against the Jags with Mike Glennon. Before you write them off as lucky one week…they have Chase Daniel (not Stafford) this week. Might be another DST1 week for them.
Snap Counts of Interest:
40 = JRob
22 = Ogunbowale
06 = Ozigbo
41 = Jonnu
34 = Pruitt
32 = Swaim
16 = Firkser
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 14 Game Analysis: Ravens 47, Browns 42
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
I’m really not a fan of any particular team, just whatever team I’ve bet on that particular moment…but I was a Browns fan in spirit last night. I really wanted them to get over on the Ravens, for Baker’s sake…for AFC North chaos’s sake…for long suffering Browns’ fan sakes.
As soon as I saw the Brownies tie it with a minute left, I knew Justin Tucker was winning that game…and he did.
I pray more of you won your FF games by the Tucker last second kick then those beaten by the final play being ruled a safety for the Ravens defense.
We could pick through this game to complain about why one coach did this or didn’t do that and they shoulda done something else. In the end, it was just a highly entertaining game that either team could’ve won. The Ravens losing so many defensive players in-game and then losing Lamar for a series+…that all factored in as well, but the Ravens won so ‘who cares’? The Browns proved they are solid but not quite ready for the big time (they should’ve put Baltimore away when they had them down early)…but it ends up a loss that quasi-feels like a win.
Baltimore sustaining/playing through so many injuries and losing Lamar for a stretch and playing at Cleveland…to go in and win this game, coming from behind – gritty win. Still, the 2020 Ravens look nothing like the 2019 domination team they had.
The Ravens get to (8-5) with the win, and keep their playoff hopes alive. They can win out (JAX-NYG-CIN) and get to (11-5) and a strong wild card. At minimum, they should be (10-6) and a wild card for sure.
The Browns are now (9-4) and will also be a wild card. They have the Jets Week 16, so they will get to a minimum 10 wins -- and that’s a wild card spot as well. The Browns might hit 11 wins in the end. Baltimore has the tiebreaker over them for seeding with a pair of victories over the Browns this season.
Either way…both the Browns and Ravens are playoff bound, as are the two top AFC South teams (IND and TEN). There will be one spot left for the wild card/#7 seed…it’s between Miami, Las Vegas, and New England.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- It’s so good to see Baker Mayfield (28-47 for 343 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT, 5-23-1) coming into his own…so good for me. I thought he was going to be a top FF scorer in 2019…unleashed by Freddie Kitchens to throw at will. The opposite happened.
That guy I was looking for in 2019, he’s starting to arise in 2020…
Back-to-back 330+ yard passing games for Baker.
8 TDs/1 INT in his last three games…the #3 FF PPG QB in that span (4pts per pass TD).
13 TDs/2 INTs his last 7 games.
Take away/ignore his two games played in high wind gusts (all passing games died in those games): 23 TD passes in 11 games this season…over 2+ passing TDs per game. That’s high-end performance as a passer.
I’m not discussing Baker with the Mahomes-Allen-Herbert-Murray types for FF, because his offense isn’t set up for that kind of FF success (in my opinion) – but Baker has talent like them, as a passer…he’s got QB1 aspirations for the future again. So good to see…so good to see I’m not crazy with what I saw with Baker.
We’re getting to the point where an NFL team/the Cleveland Browns having Baker…they got a chance to win games strictly because of Baker. He led Cleveland back several times in this game. He’s starting to ‘feel it’ in the NFL. His talent could not be hidden for long. OBJ being gone has reignited Baker’s career.
-- I’d rather have Baker as my NFL QB than Lamar Jackson (11-17 for 163 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 9-124-2) but LJax is definitely more fun to watch.
Lamar is starting to score again for fantasy as well. Weeks 12-14, I mentioned that Bakeris the #3 QB in FF PPG scoring among QBs in that span…well, Lamar is #1. Another big week potential for Jackson this week vs. Jacksonville.
-- Lamar is starting to score for fantasy because he’s just taking the offense…he’s doing it himself. That mindset is killing off everything else Ravens for fantasy.
How can you trust J.K. Dobbins (13-53-1) in this offense for FF? He's in a split with Gus Edwards (7-49-01-4-0/1) and Lamar is taking much of the juicy run game activity. You can’t trust JKD next week…or next season. Lamar isn’t going anywhere nor is he changing his approach.
Nor will John Harbaugh change his approach.
Nor can Marquise Brown (2-50-1/6) catch passes. If Diontae Johnson is getting benched in-game for ‘drops’, the Brown should be as well. Diontae’s issue is mental…Brown’s issue is – he’s not even positioning his hands to catch passes properly. He’s catching passes like if I tossed you an infant to him – to make that catch you’d create a basket with your arms to haul it in…that’s what Brown is doing, trying to catch passes with his arms trapping it to his chest. That’s a bad sign/flaw…he’s not trusting his hands and is overcompensating/adjusting his catch style.
Brown’s career is in real trouble of being a ‘bust’. FYI…he was the top WR picked in his draft. The surest bet in all of life – whatever WR is taken first by the NFL in a draft (the past several years this is true)…sure fire bust/disappointment/nowhere close to the top WR in his class when we look back a few years from now. That’s the holy, unquestionable NFL scouting for you…
-- One of the reasons why I can’t see Baker Mayfield as a top 3-5 FF QB ahead is the Browns are built for a strong run game. They possess two of the best RBs in the NFL right now.
Just two quick comments on them…
No RB is running with more passion than Kareem Hunt (6-33-1, 6-77-1/7). No one is working harder, running with reckless abandon (in a good way), than Hunt. He’s a top 10-15 RB in the NFL…and he’s the ‘backup’ for Cleveland. Kudos to the former GM who got fired last year…who doesn’t seem all that dumb right about now…looking at all of the Browns’ roster.
Nick Chubb (17-82-2, 2-21-0/2) is the single best-looking runner/RB, to my scouting eye, in the NFL. Derrick Henry and Nick Chubb. Chubb is yielding numbers to Kareem Hunt, which is NFL-smart but FF mild depressing, but Chubb is putting up big numbers despite that.
2021 fantasy RB rankings…Henry/McCaffrey…Cook…???...Chubb?
-- As Baker rises, so does his surrounding weaponry…
Rashard Higgins (6-68-1/10) is finally settling in as the guy I was looking for 4-5 weeks ago but gave up on – but I think the wind gust games hurt him and hid him.
6.0 rec., 81.5 yards, 1.0 TDs per game the past two games. Oddly, you know how many fumbles he had in this game? Four. None of them lost.
Actually, the Browns had 7 fumbles…none of them lost in this game.
Donovan Peoples-Jones (3-74-0/5) made some plays here too. He’s a pretty solid NFL WR prospect. Iffy for high FF production, but a very solid hand for an NFL team. He’s showing some blips/signs of a future.
I knew Jarvis Landry (6-52-0/9) would get shut down with CB Jimmy Smith back…and Landry was getting cut off completely, but then Smith got hurt and Landry got freed up to have a decent game. You may be sick of me talking about Jimmy Smith, but it’s a real thing to have to plan around. The Browns got back into this about the time Smith went down again.
-- The Browns-DST is primed to lead fantasy teams to the title the next two weeks…at NYG, at NYJ Weeks 15-16. A perfect storm/opportunity.
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Snap Counts of Interest:
44 = Chubb
39 = Hunt
55 = Bryant
51 = Njoku
37 = Dobbins
16 = Edwards
06 = J Hill
01 = Ingram (the first play of the game)
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 14 Game Analysis: Eagles 24, Saints 21
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
Joe Burrow debuted, looked fine, and almost upset the Chargers opening day. Never blinked in NFL competition, despite getting hit a thousand times after that.
Justin Herbert debuted Week 2 with 15 minutes pregame notice and almost knocked off KC in OT…he looked like he had played at the pro level for a decade from his first snap.
Jalen Hurts debuts Week 14, without a hitch in his game or mannerisms and knocks off the (then) #1 NFC seeded team who had won their last 9 in a row. Halting his own team’s 4 game losing streak.
This all happening in a COVID year with limited training camp and no preseason games.
Can some NFL analyst please tell me again how complex the NFL is and how rookie QBs need time to adjust to the game speed?
Someone from NFL analyst world also please tell me how great Sam Darnold, Daniel Jones, and Dwayne Haskins are – when they look incompetent more and more as their career’s go on?
Additionally, can someone please explain to me why Tua Tagovailoa looks like a scared high school quarterback every Sunday, and yet dares get mentioned in the same breath as Burrow-Herbert…and now Hurts. Hurts is allowed to be in that grouping, Tua is not – but the NFL will lie to you (and themselves) for 2-3 years telling you it’s not so, and they’ll belch about how great Tua looks, and he’s just like Burrow-Herbert.
How is it people scouted Tua as the #1 QB for his draft class two years before entering the NFL? He’s not even in the top three. Nick Saban…why did you switch from Hurts to Tua? You won ‘that’ game, but maybe you were going to win it anyway? Oh, sorry…I can’t criticize Saban or Urban Meyer…Urban Meyer of the ‘Dwayne Haskins is my guy’…as Joe Burrow transfers out because he isn’t ‘the guy’. Wanna reexamine that one too while we are at it?
Is there any time that national media NFL (or CFB) analysis would like to be right about something, anything…just once?
Actually, please don’t…you give my business a pulse…just as you are.
Why all this incessant anti-NFL stuff this week/year? I think it’s important to reinforce the fact that they don’t know what they’re talking about. Maybe we don’t either, but I know they don’t. Their opinions and takes and scouting…it all should be consumed with total skepticism. Honestly, it should be consumed assuming they’re probably wrong…then trying to find out the truth from there. There’s fantasy and handicapping profit in understanding ‘them’ and how wrong they are constantly.
So, with that…
Jalen Hurts, the QB they dismissed for the 2020 NFL Draft, defeated the previously undefeated Taysom Hill, who THEY are still butt-sore that their guy Jameis Winston didn’t start over. Hurts out Taysom Hill’d Taysom Hill…which my Hurts scouting (in general) has been just that – Hurts was/is a better version of what Taysom Hill could be. It’s not an insult to Taysom…it’s just Hurts was raised in the new era of QB play, he’s better groomed for this (but Taysom is really good for the NFL too).
The Eagles got up 17-0 and left the Saints reeling. The Saints gathered themselves up and got back into it in the 2nd-half, closing it to 17-14 Eagles at the end of three quarters. That’s when Jalen Hurts went back to work and led a crucial TD drive to get back to a two-score lead with 6+ minutes left. The Eagles defense held off a late Saints TD and booked a really impressive win.
Believe it or not, the Eagles are back in the NFC East hunt at (4-8-1). The Eagles just have to match Washington’s win total in the end and Philly wins the division because of the tie. Washington has 6 wins now, but they might get stuck there if Dwayne Haskins is the QB the rest of the way. If Alex Smith is back, it might be too tall an order. If the Eagles can get within a game of Washington after the next two games…Week 17 is Washington at Philadelphia. We project the Eagles to finish (7-8-1), and thus NFC East Champs…but (6-9-1) and not winning the division has about as much probability too.
The Saints’ world just crashed down on them. If Doug Pederson would have just gone with Carson Wentz… The Saints fall to (10-3) and give the #1 seed to Green Bay…it’s GB’s to lose now (GB already beat the Saints this season). Now, the Saints host KC Week 15…which means they likely fall to (10-4) and the #1 seed hope really slips away.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Jalen Hurts (17-30 for 167 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 18-106-0) was exactly who I thought he’d be as a player…except I didn’t think he’d be there in his debut game…against white hot Saints defense.
This is who he will be every week, approximately…200 +/- passing yards, 50-100 rushing yards, a passing TD per game, and 10+ rushing TDs per season. Hurts is a much better passer than Lamar Jackson, and is a more physical runner but not as elusive as Lamar. Hurts is also a ‘face of the franchise’ type player…a humble leader, great human being. I don’t believe Lamar is anywhere near Hurts’s class of locker room guy.
Philadelphia…you’ve got your franchise QB for the next decade, congrats! We’ll try and forget you whining all summer about why the Eagles would take THIS QB, wasting a 2nd-round pick.
Other Hurts thoughts…
1) Doug Pederson should be fired for saying, post-game, that he doesn’t know who will be starting the upcoming game. I’m serious. If I were Jeffrey Lurie, I’d quick kiss my half-my-age wife good-bye, tell her I’d be right back, and go down into Pederson’s office and sweep my arm across his desk and knock everything off and tell him to get the hell out of the building.
*On Monday Pederson named Hurts as starter, but Sunday night he said he hadn’t made up his mind.
2) That statement of not naming a starter goes to show Pederson is actively trying to get detached from the franchise and that he never wanted Hurts in the first place. And it shows he is an incompetent or subversive manager, and it should not be allowed to stand.
3) Even worse, I think Pederson waited/relented to start Hurts versus the Saints to try and embarrass Hurts and show that he (and Wentz) were the right duo all along.
If I were an Eagles fan, I would be livid. I like Doug Pederson, but this is treasonous, and I think seals his fate…which is what he wants. If you can bet on such things, bet that Pederson is gone as soon as the Eagles’ season is over.
Doug Pederson doesn’t deserve to have his job saved by ANOTHER backup QB he DIDN’T want saving his ass again (see: Nick Foles…who gave Pederson a career longevity).
-- The Jalen Hurts ‘targets’/surrounding ‘things’ report…
OK, so we know Hurts is good already. We know his style. How did it effect the other players from a fantasy/output scenario? Couple thoughts…
1) Miles Sanders (14-115-2, 4-21-0/5) had a big stat line, but again…minus the one big run it was horrible. But I’m more encouraged here than I expected to be…because Hurts looked very comfortable checking down appropriately to Sanders in the passing game and Hurts is not a TD hog, he will let the RB do some work.
I feared for Sanders’ fantasy output going into this, but now I’m more neutral/OK.
2) Dallas Goedert (4-43-0/6) seemed to be the pitch-and-catch comfortable throw for Hurts. Goedert over all the WRs or Sanders.
And can I say again…Goedert looks amazing. Kelce-Waller…Goedert is my leader in the offseason clubhouse to be the # 3 FF TE hopeful.
3) Jalen Reagor (2-46-0/4) seemed to be the top WR look, but it wasn’t urgent or all that effective. Reagor did miss a 50+ yard bomb…thrown a foot too long and Reagor didn’t go all out for it and hit his hand. It was almost a (3-100-0/4) game that people would have fallen in love with.
At a minimum, that missed bomb connection – another example of how comfortable and accurate Hurts is already. Hurts throws beautiful passes – he put that bomb right on Reagor’s hands in stride from across the field (right to left throw). It’s stunning that these young QBs just walk in and debut and look better than Carson Wentz ever has in his entire career (as just one QB example).
-- Miles Sanders didn’t suffer the same passing game fate Alvin Kamara (11-50-1, 7-44-0/10) did early on with Taysom. However, Taysom seems to have fixed that aspect of his game already…10 targets/7 catches here for AK.
3 catches, 7 yards, 7 targets = Kamara’s first 3 games with Taysom
7 catches, 44 yards, 10 targets = This one game with Taysom.
A great sign for Kamara back to his PPR ways.
-- It’s been a lot of Jalen Hurts talk this whole recap, but the Eagles-DST deserves half the credit along with Hurts.
I thought the Eagles defense was playing well, playing their hearts out during the losing streak…it’s just Carson Wentz and the lack of offense was killing them, and they eventually rolled over in recent games in the 2nd-half. Not here. A solid performance again. Week 16 at Dallas has potential for a DST play…IF the Eagles are still viable for the playoffs. Once Philly is done for the playoffs that group is bailing on Pederson/the season.
-- IDP Note…
PHI DE Josh Sweat (5 tackles, 2.0 sacks) had one of those games…one of those games where you’d swear he’s a top NFL pass rusher. He looks like a video game creation pass rusher, but he’s so hit and miss.
3.0 sacks in his first 4 games…then 1.0 sacks in his next 8 games to start the 2020 season. He’s a very patch/spotty/flashy not consistent pass rush prospect.
If he ever puts it all together…
Sweat has been on our IDP Stash report for three years now…hoping…waiting.
Snap Counts of Interest:
56 = Sanders
15 = Scott
02 = Clement
59 = Goedert
50 = Ertz
47 = Reagor
31 = Jeffery
22 = Watkins
11 = Fulgham
45 = Kamara
20 = Latavius
36 = Cook
18 = JHill
15 = Trautman
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 14 Game Analysis: Bills 26, Steelers 15
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
I’m not saying I’m perfect in football analysis. Trying to guess ‘which way the wind will blow next’ game--by-game, play-by-play with unpredictable injuries, penalties called (or not called), the way a football bounces…you’re bound to be wrong about something every day. However, I was not wrong about my main team-based assertions for the last week/several weeks – I proclaimed that the Rams and Bills were two of the three elite teams in the NFL…the other being the Chiefs.
You saw this game.
Was I lying? Was I ‘bad’ at my job? No, I was not. Not here. The Buffalo Bills ruled here…a changing of the guard moment. The Buffalo Bills are more what we have thought of the Steelers for years and most of the 2020 season – top team, Super Bowl threat, bulldog tough QB who can pull out any game/can put a team on his shoulders. The Steelers have become what football society thinks of the Bills the past few years/2020 season – good team, tough out, a QB with limitations, but a team/QB that’s not good enough to be great/they are not a Super Bowl threat.
I’m not pointing all this out to celebrate myself, but I am pretty pleased about it – I work hard, I want to succeed. No, I’m presenting this game as more evidence that NFL analysis is lacking and there is a way we can profit off of that – whether via fantasy, or with the Bills (and Rams)…betting them when the analysts are all ‘missing it’. Two key bets I promoted this week (BUF and LAR) both cashed in. I promoted those bets because: (a) I believed they were two of the best teams in football, and more importantly (b) that because the analysts were ‘missing it’ on them, the point spreads/line would be suppressed because the media/analyst class was missing it…and thus the lapdog fans were gonna be asleep on it/betting it the wrong way. The names ‘Steelers’ and ‘Patriots’ carry legacy love/respect…and the Bills and Rams have little/no respect in football society – it was the perfect storm week to bet the untrusted favorites there.
*Please early bet Buffalo -4.5 at Denver this week, under the same theory*
The 1st-quarter of this game was 0-0…a defensive slog in a late-breaking wet/mist, mild wind, cold backdrop. Early on, the Steelers looked a bit more amped and I was a bit worried the Steelers were going to hang tough/have a chance to win it. When the Steelers took a 7-0 lead with 8+ minutes left in the 2nd-half, I got more worried (bettors are always worried about everything, so it’s normal).
From that point, the Bills started feeling it and scored the next 23 points to take a strong lead going into the 4th-quarter. It wasn’t so much about the lead as the way the Bills took it – after a quarter of ‘feeling out’ the Steelers, Josh Allen and the defense put the hammer down and took this game by force – and the Steelers wilted minute-by-minute. They wilted because they have a lesser roster of talent and lesser coaching…they could not hang with the Buffalo Bills here and won’t for the near future. The ‘Pittsburgh Steelers’…that concept, what image/respect that brings to mind – that exists in the form of the Buffalo Bills now…tougher team, better QB and defense, and better run organization top-to-bottom.
That’s not a slam/mocking of the Steelers…I just believe the Bills are on the verge, or have arrived, as the best top-to-bottom football team and organization in all of football. No one else thinks this outside of ketchup and mustard-soaked Bills Mafia fans (it’s a thing in Buffalo if you didn’t know...https://youtu.be/jjQbksJyEO0). Polite NFL society is not buying this at all. In fact, they’re going to bury it by ignoring it…then trying to destroy it. T-minus weeks and counting that Josh Allen’s ‘racially insensitive’ social media posts (that were an issue right before his NFL Draft) will be brought up to undermine him and the entire team’s momentum. When you see it, know it was planned/on purpose…with intent.
How dare a football team, and a quarterback, defy the establishment thinking and defeat their precious ordained teams? You think I’m a conspiracy theory nut that is so anti-NFL and media that I see ghosts all day long? If Buffalo makes it to the AFC Finals and especially if they make it to the Super Bowl – THEY (the media and opposing teams who would benefit from hurting Buffalo…like the other NY teams, the other AFC East teams especially) are coming after Josh Allen via the media as the way to pierce this bubble.
Sean McDermott has built the Buffalo Bills his way, not the NFL accepted way. One of his first, best moves as HC of the Bills was trading away ‘the great’ Sammy Watkins (a move critically crushed by the media at the time). He’s built a team for Buffalo. He’s built a team to last. He got Josh Allen ‘right’ when all smart scouts like me mocked his abilities/the draft pick. Sean McDermott is the new Bill Belichick…in-hiding. The single smartest personnel man + coach in the NFL…and has been for a while.
This win over Pittsburgh was no fluke – they beat down the Steelers. The score not fully reflecting the true/widening gap between the two teams. If it were played on a clean/dome field instead of in the cold/rain – the Bills might have won this game scoring 35+ points on the vaunted Steelers defense.
Buffalo rises to (10-3)…a Hail Murray from being (11-2) and in the #1 seed discussion, but they’ve already lost to KC this season (in the rain), so Buffalo is likely locked in as the #2 seed. They should finish with 12 wins, and then 13 wins if Week 17 is a needed game for them…Week 17 might have them locked to the #2 seed and playing backups.
The Steelers should’ve seen the ghost of Christmas Future here, as they fall to (11-2). They are not a legit top/high-end NFL team anymore. They’ve fallen from the #1 seed two weeks ago to the #3 seed and falling. If the Browns win Monday night (writing this before the MNF game), then the Steelers have a one-game lead over the Browns with three more to play, including Week 17 at Cleveland. Can you imagine if the Steelers collapse to the finish and the Browns beat them Week 17 for the division title? The Steelers are falling into football purgatory…too good to break up/rebuild and not good enough to be a Super Bowl threat. The Steelers have an easy win Week 15 at Cincy, but then there could be a lot at stake Week 16 vs. Indy, if the Browns are right behind them.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- I guess we need to start with the Pittsburgh Steelers WR report…
On Sunday morning I discussed the risk in Diontae Johnson (4-40-0/7)…that considering this was a playoff game week for most…that Mike Tomlin speaking words all week backed himself into a corner where to protect his image he would have to pull any WR dropping the ball in this game. He had to.
That puts a lot of pressure on any receiver, even one who hadn’t dropped passes. Makes a WR think about it every second of the game…overthinking. On cue, the very first pass…a quick pass to Diontae and he gaffed it. I thought he’d come out right then and there, but Tomlin left him in. On the second series, Diontae dropped another easy pass…and then out of the game he went until like the 4th-quarter.
So many thoughts here…
1) Tomlin had to do it, had to pull him. Simple passes being gaffed by Diontae. It looks like ‘the yips’…like what happens to some baseball players. It gets mental. It’s hard to get out of.
2) This is an issue for next week…a fantasy issue. You know that Diontae is one play away from sitting the rest of the game. You also have a suspicion that they will try to get him going, and he could have a knockout/week-winning performance in response against a weak CIN defense.
3) Tomlin is making this worse. When Davante Adams struggled with something very similar in his 2nd-year, the fans destroyed him. Mike McCarthy and Aaron Rodgers defended Adams and built his confidence back…even at the expense of lost series/plays even games. They did the same when Mason Crosby had a horrific season of kicking.
Look at where Davante and Crosby are at now? Their almost career-ending ‘bad’ seasons are not even remembered now.
Tomlin took his typical fake tough guy approach (making tough proclamations of what he will do/what he won’t tolerate), and it will probably destroy Diontae from here on in. Tomlin has an image in the media…he feeds off it – the tough guy. Like a not-as-funny Rex Ryan. Tomlin, to a degree, exists because of the tough guy image…and maybe some of it is real – whatever it is…the way he’s managing this issue might have taken a highly valuable asset/piece of art and put a giant scratch in it destroying its value. Tomlin made a media proclamation on something he could’ve not made anyone’s business or went out of his way to publicly support the player(s). Instead, he’s Mr. Tough Guy. We’ll see where that gets him.
4) Because of Tomlin’s approach and subsequent outcome, in my opinion, Diontae should be benched next week going forward and they run a JuJu-Washington-Claypool…put Claypool in Diontae’s role, which is how Claypool started to explode weeks ago when Diontae was out. They won’t…they’ll wait to see if Diontae drops another pass.
5) Everything I’ve ever said/critiqued on NFL analyst’s not great at their jobs, and specifically Cris Collinsworth, immediately came true here. The most glaring example of these people do not really have a feel for what they are watching and needing to communicate to the audience…
When Diontae dropped his second pass to force a stalled drive/punt, obviously the ‘drops’ thing was discussed/mentioned again – it was only like the biggest headline going into this game. But here’s the crime… So, when Diontae was not out there the first play of the Steelers’ next drive…no one noticed/mentioned. Not Cris, not Tirico, not highly-paid Michelle Tafoya…not even merit-not-nepotism-based-hired Jak Collinsworth – play after play with no Diontae on the field and it wasn’t even mentioned. Series after series went by…not a peep. It was a HUGE moment/thing…and none of them noticed the Steelers’ #1 WR was benched/not there.
I think 4-5 series later, Collinsworth finally realized it/a producer likely saw it on Twitter and fed into Cris’s ear.
How are you analyzing games and didn’t notice the Steelers #1 WR had been pulled for drops…when that was a big storyline coming into the game?!?!?!?
I guess Cris was too busy writing his Oscar acceptance speech for his dazzling acting in that stupid in-game commercial where he’s analyzing Fletcher Cox. Wow, you noticed Fletcher Cox has great feet (and you circled it on your laptop so I knew what feet were and where they were located on the human body…thank, Criss!)…that’s your big computer-AI/PFF takeaway? Where do I rush to get my PFF subscription? How about less acting/money grabbing and more paying attention to your game work/observations? https://youtu.be/QKrfNdBGUF4
6) The future for Diontae?
Sure, he can turn it all around…but I think the meter has to be tipped towards ‘this is a career killer moment’ right now. When Davante Adams struggled with similar issues his 2nd-season, social media hadn’t hit full peak of reach or nastiness. Now, it exists to destroy people at a warp speed.
This situation reminds me more of Jordan Matthews’s career torpedo then it does Davante Adams’s turnaround/rise from the ashes. Hopefully, I’m wrong – but I know NFL analyst’s love nothing more than to scream ‘drop’ at every pass not caught no matter the context and I know they love to destroy careers of players who weren’t ordained top picks by the mainstream scouting society – Diontae checks all those boxes.
Watch the first few minutes of this (or all of it), it should open/start up at the 3:57 mark…this might be shocking to consider knowing what we know now of Davante Adams… https://youtu.be/18x4bmv3M4A?t=237
When Diontae got benched, Chase Claypool (3-15-0/6) played in his place…and, of course, the Bills threw top coverage at him. Why? Because the Bills know what Mike Tomlin doesn’t…Chase Claypool is the best/most dangerous WR on the Steelers. So, it’s smart for him to be on the bench for half the game…by design.
Prior to Diontae getting benched for ‘drops’, Claypool got (essentially) benched last week for ‘leading the team in receiving as a rookie for the season’. So, what does Mike Tomlin want his WRs to do? Failure gets you benched…and success gets you benched? JuJu Smith-Schuster (6-55-1/7) does funny TikTok videos and likes to dance and have fun…and have mediocre performances without Antonio Brown around anymore – I guess that’s the sweet spot for a Steelers’ WR to never get benched.
Claypool should never be off the field. And if he’s a little banged up…then sit him out for a week. Him going in 50% of the game and leaping up for high point throws and coming crashing to earth isn’t going to heal him up faster.
We’ve gone from Diontae as a top 3-5 PPR WR option each week and Chase Claypool as a WR1 non-PPR for the season just a few weeks ago -- to having no FF-confidence in either to start them Week 15…in a primo matchup with the Bengals! Who is to blame (takes down glasses slowly, and cranes neck and eyes to look over at Mike Tomlin).
But Mike Tomlin is so honest, why he even said his team ‘sucked’ a few weeks ago…how refreshing. He must be such a great coach! That’s similar to Pete Carroll as a great coach because he looks and acts younger than his age – it really has nothing to do with the task at hand. We need to judge Tomlin for his on-field results…and things are starting to sour and players are regressing, not improving.
-- Is Ben Roethlisberger (21-37 for 187 for 2 TDs/2 INTs) to blame for the WR woes?
I don’t think the WR issues and rotation is his fault, but I would like to mention – the air is leaking out of the Big Ben balloon. We are watching the decline in real-time. Kinda like watching Tom Brady late last year and this year.
Not that they are done…just they are not the guy/the talent we remember so fondly. Age is coming to get all of us at some point. Bubbles/balloons get popped eventually.
Ben started the season with 22 TDs/4 INTs…but has 7 TDs/5 INTs in his last 4 games, a two game losing streak that’s lucky it’s not three games in a row.
If you gave the Steelers’ 2020 opponents one more TD (7pts) in every game this year, Pittsburgh would be (5-7-1). Their big wins of late are over Jacksonville and Cincy…they’ve struggled/should’ve lost to Dallas (with Gilbert Grape at QB), and almost lost to RG3 and Trace McSorley’s COVID world tour a few Wednesday’s ago.
Diontae and Claypool have these issues that have popped up…but along with that is the slow fade of Big Ben, who is more Alex Smith than Alex Smith now (as a thrower/style).
-- Josh Allen (24-43 for 238 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT, 6-28-0) is the new, better Big Ben of the NFL. The torch was passed/snatched this game…this season.
You know how I feel about Allen from my reports all season long. No need to retread that – he’s second only to Patrick Mahomes as a QB talent and as an MVP candidate this year.
Just one note to point out…
Early on in this game, Allen struggled a touch/the Steelers defense was playing great for the 1st-quarter+. What’s remarkable/MVP-esque is that Allen flipped a switch and just dominated this defense the last 2+ quarters…a highly respected, very good defense.
-- Speaking of defenses, as I’ve been pushing…the Bills defense is emerging as a top five unit again the past few weeks. I’d argue they are about to pass/should be more feared than the Steelers defense.
I’m not ready to say that for sure, but it’s on the table. We have to recognize the Steelers didn’t have Joe Haden this game and the Steelers have no running game and likes to bench their best receivers. This game may not be the full performance litmus test for the Bills to be judged by.
-- Speaking of the running game for the Steelers…
James Conner (10-18-0) never gets benched. His unproductive running plays are near as bad as Diontae’s drops – at least, Diontae produces around the drops. The drops are a ‘zero’ play. Conner running the ball is usually a ‘zero’ play…what’s the difference? Why isn’t Conner benched?
Jaylen Samuels (4-15-0, 3-18-0/4) is better than James Conner, and I’ve said that since his rookie training camp. He’s shown it on the field when given the full chance. Mike Tomlin is an offensive genius…so, of course, he doesn’t recognize any of this.
We do realize the Steelers offense has become Big Ben as new-age Alex Smith…the top targeted receivers (Diontae and Ebron) can’t catch, the single best WR (Claypool) is not starting, and their single best RB (Samuels) has been running 4th-team all season.
Man, that Mike Tomlin is a great head coach. Who else is to blame for the Steelers collapse-in-progress but Tomlin?
Samuels has seemed to have moved into the #2 role, and a little PPR/3rd-down RB niche…not usable yet for FF, but he might be the true handcuff to Conner right now.
-- Dawson Knox (4-34-0/7) had his most targets in a game in 2020 this game. I’m thinking it is more – the Steelers were down to a 3rd-string/trade deadline acquired LB starting in this game and they exploited it a little.
However, Knox is a talent.
Knox plays with the new/better Big Ben to help push numbers.
And Knox is slowly trending numbers higher – 4 and 4 for catches in games the last two weeks. Two TDs in his last 3 games. Knox can be the Robert Tonyan-ish uprising here...maybe. Allen has never been one to blow things up via the TE, but Josh Allen is constantly doing things I have to catch up to. He might start integrating this new wrinkle (Knox) ahead.
-- Gabriel Davis (3-19-1/8) is going through some woes of his own at WR, despite the fact that he’s scored a TD in three straight games with John Brown out.
Davis has caught 20 of his last 39 targets from Josh Allen…barely 50% connection. The problems are worse in games when he’s starting for Brown. I think Davis is in over his head at this stage – he needs more development, but if Brown is out…Davis is on the field with new-age Big Ben…so, things can happen.
-- PIT LB Avery Williamson (11 tackles) filled in for Robert Spillane with a solid 11 tackle game here. He is set to start for two more weeks (or more) with Spillane out on IR.
Let’s end with something that will take your breath away. I guarantee it…
This is your lead SNF football analyst and purveyor of PFF (you’re going to think this is a joke but you know it cannot be/it’s authentic/real tape and words for a live human being on camera…): https://youtu.be/WC8Elk1LRjs?t=56
Snap Counts of Interest:
60 = Knox
38 = Ebron
29 = Lee Smith
19 = McDonald
44 = Moss
30 = Singletary
27 = Samuels
23 = Conner
05 = Snell
57 = JuJu
46 = JWash
38 = Claypool
28 = Diontae
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 14 Game Analysis: Rams 24, Patriots 3
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
*Written before the Sunday games kicked off*
I’ll stick to, and pat myself on the back for, my analysis of the Rams the last few weeks as the reason no detailed game notes (on the teams themselves) are needed for what happened here. I have been saying for weeks that the Rams have the best defense in football – an emergence, upswing to becoming ‘that’ defense…there’s always one each year, it seems, and sometimes they need some time to reveal themselves as the season goes – but one eventually arrives…and that defense, the most dominant defense in the NFL, is one that can carry a team to the Super Bowl. It’s happening with the Rams.
I’ve also promoted (going into Week 14) that there are three elite teams in the NFL currently, and two of them are totally undersold/undervalued by the football analysts…it’s the Bills and the Rams (KC being the other of the top three).
The Rams win decisively on cable television…and yet the analyst story is – Should Cam be benched? Are the Patriots really not going to make the playoffs? Why did the Patriots lose? Do the Patriots regret ditching Tom Brady? Super Bowl redemption for the Rams, from that time the Patriots beat them in the Super Bowl!
The story this week, nationally, will never be – The Rams are the only real NFC threat to the Kansas City Chiefs and are possibly better than the Chiefs because of their defense, and Jared Goff is a really good quarterback. The football media does NOT believe in Goff so therefore they will NOT believe in the Rams. And their way of dealing with it is – ignoring it. It’s not even on purpose – football analysts live in an alternate reality where their pre-programming/coding in their minds dismisses anything Rams, mostly because of what they were told/decided about Goff three+ years ago.
It sounds insane, but I’ve been doing this for 10+ years – it’s real, it is why teams are run so poorly and make such stupid mistakes over and over and over…most NFL people (players, coaches, execs…and the fired/retired ones turned ‘analysts’) have a hive mind/set narratives and never put in the work (or are allowed) to question/test/explore alternatives. To me, the analysts of this business/the NFL don’t put in the work that I do...or what many serious fantasy players and/or handicappers do – the studying, searching, the poking and prodding…doing so for profit in handicapping and fantasy, not for ‘love of the game’.
The research, the questioning, the counter thinking -- It’s life and death for my existence. I have to (try and) know what’s really going on. National Football analysts are paid to be safe mouthpieces and not offer any opinion that doesn’t agree with the ‘hive’. Professionally, it’s best for them not to be wrong alone on any radical thinking items. Plus, the hate mail you get is taxing when you criticize someone’s team or favorite player -- you;re like a heretic in a religion. Analysts are paid to be/it’s better for their careers to just shine a fawning light on stars being stars…i.e. the ‘amazing’ analysis of: “I really like this kid” (or worse “They/the coaches really like this kid”) and everyone on the major networks trying to one up each other on how good Aaron Donald is in their pregame segments. How is that analysis? We all know Aaron Donald and Patrick Mahomes are great…you don’t need to explain why by showing me two cool plays of theirs and hyperventilating over it for 7-11 minutes in a segment or roundtable discussion. Tell me on-field things I don’t know. The mainstream analysts are all ‘right’ or ‘wrong’ together on players/scouting/teams, so no one gets criticized – because if it’s ultimately wrong, they’ll ignore it or have an underlying tone of…hey, EVERYBODY thought that way…so, what am I to do?
Clowns.
Literally.
They paint their face and perform an act/a routine for us…a bunch of ‘tricks’ that are not ‘amazing’, just cheap deception/diversions – they think we’re simpletons and that we’ll clap and bark like seals at their dazzling never-ending handkerchief up the sleeve gag…or flowers out of the top of the magic wand surprise. Next week, watch them pull a quarter out of your ear.
The NFL has production meetings and marketing strategies that comes up with stupid ‘Super Fan’ contests to encourage ridiculous loyalty to a jersey or territory. It seems to work…look at the TV ratings. When the NFL thinks of their audience demo in order to design production, pregame shows, and what ‘hard hitting analysis’ to give to them…this is the thought bubble above Roger Goodell’s head on what he sees among the NFL audience: https://youtu.be/8S_0MWqOkCE
Bill Simmons and Colin Cowherd (among others) were removed from ESPN because they didn’t drink the Kool Aid from the NFL. They rightfully questioned things, offered alternative opinions (whether right/wrong, good/bad). The NFL doesn’t want that. They want stupid, blind loyalists watching and analyzing…thus Michael Irvin, Steve Mariucci, Kurt Warner, and Rich Eisen (nice guy, but he knows his role for the cause) are long-time anchors/stalwarts of the NFL’s own network shows (yes, the NFL has its own network to cover itself…like Communist countries have). The NFL establishment doesn’t want a Pat McAfee (they’ll not suffer him for long…I think they’re trying to see if he will bend to their will for towards them)…instead they give us Booger McFarland and Jason Witten…and coming soon – useful, milquetoast Drew Brees and Greg Olsen.
You’d think NFL coverage would be getting smarter, sharper as we go – instead we are getting dumber in NFL analysis. The NFL establishment has so insulated itself and hired certain types of mouthpieces (and banished/flushed others) that the false reality they’ve built…they actually believe it to be real. They’ve duped themselves. The emperor literally has no clothes.
So, you’re never going to get super-sharp NFL analysis or questioning of things (even if wrong in the end). You get sugary hype or just ignoring things they don’t deem worthy/thought were ‘bad’. The Rams fall into the ignored.
The Rams whacking the Patriots…it’s written off as a mild surprise, but it shouldn’t be. The Rams shouldn’t have been ignored as ‘lucky’ when they punched Seattle Week 10 – the post-game story was about how Russell Wilson had a bad game (something to do with ‘cooking’ I’m sure). When the Rams embarrassed Tampa Bay Week 11…the post-game story the next week was all about Brady and Arians aren’t good for each other. When the Rams slammed Arizona Week 13…everyone was like ‘What’s wrong with this Arizona team, and Kyler is too small to be good I guess?” Week 14, the Rams pull down the Patriots pants on live TV and spank them…and post-game everyone is discussing Cam benching for Stidham and lamenting Belichick for letting Brady go.
The story is, and should have been for several weeks…
1) Jared Goff is a very good, solid+ NFL QB (and has been for years).
2) The Rams are arguably the best team in the NFL and if you set a spread of KC v. LAR on a neutral field…it would be pretty even spread internally, as a base for Vegas line setters -- but then it would wind up coming out at KC -3.0, to allow for the public sway -- because the public will have been brainwashed/conditioned to seeing the Rams as lucky if they get to the Super Bowl somehow.
All that to say, getting back to this particular game…
The Patriots really needed this game. It could’ve turned the season. Yet, the Rams came out and humiliated the Patriots from the first play of the game. We don’t have to debate Cam v. Brady v. Stidham here…the Rams would’ve beaten any of them starting. The Rams are just that good, and it’s not an embarrassment for the Patriots to lose to them. The Rams are really, really good.
The Rams have flaws, but all NFL teams do. No team is perfect/going undefeated. The Chiefs can’t hardly handle the Raiders and Broncos in recent weeks. You do realize the Chiefs are within a whisker of having lost every division game they’ve played this year, but one, right? Look at the game log/schedule and you’ll see. The Rams are good but have their flaws but are now (9-4) headed to a Week 16 showdown at Seattle for the NFC West title.
*Rams side note…a faithful FFM member pointed out that on my Survivor picks in my weekly register that I had been listing that I used the Rams (over NYG) Week 4, and thus I mentioned this past week that I couldn’t use the Rams as a Survivor pick ahead. When in reality, in Week 4, I had taken/used the Ravens (over Haskins), and thus still have the Rams as an option.
So, if we get past Seattle v. Jets this week…we got Rams v. Jets to take in Week 15 baby!!!! I remember mapping that out for as many Jets matchups as possible several weeks ago, but I noted the Rams as unusable last week erroneously. So, for those following/using my Survivor picks – we got the Rams coming Week 15 (not BAL or SF as I mentioned we might have to debate).
The Patriots are now (6-7), and would need to win out to get to (9-7)…and that might be good enough to get to the wild card. However, if they did win out, they’d hold tiebreakers over Miami and Las Vegas and Baltimore…which puts them in a great spot if there is a cluster of (9-7) teams.
FYI…I’ve not used New England in Survivor pool yet this season either. You know who they play Week 17?
We’re set up to use…
SEATTLE over Jets Week 14
RAMS over Jets Week 15
Week 16 = ?
PATRIOTS over Jets Week 17
Week 16? Jets play the Browns…I haven’t used the Browns yet either.
First things first, Seattle has to take down NYJ this week.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- As I watched this game live, I was like…I’m never going to hear the end of this from some people, I’m going to get a bunch of ‘see, you were wrong about Cam Akers (29-171-0, 2-23-0/3)’ the rest of the week.
I also got emails Thursday night on from people who picked up Akers as a flyer grab during the week in redraft, just to see…and didn’t start him for this game, and now they’re sullen, lamenting. Hey, there’s a reason why he was unclaimed in your league going into this week – no one was ready to believe, no one saw/had confidence that this was coming. Be happy you grabbed him and have him as an option for next week.
So, what do you want to hear here?
If I go anti-Akers…you won’t be having it. I’ll sound like a loon. I know this because the emails I’m getting already have Akers enshrined in the Hall of Fame. Why? Because people SAW it with their own two eyes on a solo night game…and much of it happened early in the game, so people really SAW it before fading off on this dull 2nd-half. There is nothing more powerful than a rookie having a 100+ yard anything game on a solo night game.
Akers will be 100% started next week in every FF league, guaranteed. And he should be…facing the Jets Week 15 on top of this event. If he were facing the top run defenses Week 15…wouldn’t matter – this game result was seen with human eyes, so it’s now a fact in our subconscious – Akers is the greatest. He’s going to be started everywhere by everybody until further notice.
I believe Akers is a ‘C’ grade NFL talent at best. But talent assessments don’t matter anymore…coaches preference is what rules RB projections. However that it is an RB gets to the juicy touches…that’s all that matters. Debating Akers v. Darrell Henderson is a fun aside, but talent arguments don’t matter. No different than Carson v. Penny from prior years.
Akers is in prime position to be the lead guy for the Rams now – the Rams/Sean McVay has given us hints at it all along, since he was drafted. It’s come to fruition now.
However, it won’t be long before you don’t care as much about Akers. Ty Johnson rushed for 100+ yards this past week…doesn’t matter. Damien Harris rushed for 100 yards on MNF vs. KC Week 4 in his real NFL debut game and everyone went after him off waivers like crazy. He’s run for a couple of 100+ yard games this year. He’ll be on benches and waivers mostly for Week 15. Old news.
The new/fresh news is Cam Akers…so it shall be. For a while.
My take on Akers’ performance, as an art critic of such things? Not that impressed.
What has my attention…29 carries in a game. That is meaningful. That’s ‘message sent’. I’ll come back to that. But looking at Akers actual tape…
I saw a guy running through great holes early in the game because the defense was playing back in prep for a quick passing game and weren’t totally worried about/focused on Akers – and the Rams came out and slammed it down their throat running it. The first two series Akers rushed 9 times for 99 yards with three+ 10+ yard runs. The Patriots then adjusted and for the next three quarters went back to normal for Akers this year – 20 carries for 72 yards…or 3.6 yards per carry, which is more the pace he’s done this year.
So, am I supposed to chase the Akers from the first two series/one quarter/10 offensive points…the 10+ yards per carry version from this game…
OR
Is he more the guy from the next eight series/three quarters/just seven offensive points…the 3.6 yards per carry guy from this game (a pace which is his 2020 norm)?
You saw the 1st-quarter Akers, and it’s impressed into your mind – you wish you started him, you wish you claimed him, you wish you Dynasty Rookie Drafted the guy you saw for one great quarter. Oh, if you only had Cam Akers all your RB issues would be solved.
I saw the guy from the final three quarters…the more quarters of sample size, being the same guy he’s been all year.
I’m not saying he won’t be a fantasy gem next week or the ROS or 2021. I’m just saying – I don’t see a real ‘it’ factor here, and I’ve got a good track record on scouting or de-bunking RBs on what I see (visually/statistically). A couple years ago, Kerryon Johnson was going to take over the world too with his 100+ yard rushing explosion on the Patriots. David Montgomery was set to rule the world after a 27 carry, 135-yard rushing game vs. the Chargers in 2019. Kerryon and Montgomery…guys the mainstream was absolutely sure would be great, but time passed…and no one cares as much now.
I want to see some star power talent with my ‘big game’ and ‘big prospect’ name – and I just don’t see it here with Akers. Never have going back to his Florida State years. Darrell Henderson’s 20 carries for 117 yards and a TD in Week 3…much more impressive, much more ‘it’ factor…and it’s long been forgotten.
All that to say, I’ll get on board the Akers express now.
171 yards rushing…nice. But he got 29 carries…who wouldn’t rush for 100+ yards with that number of carries? There have been 20 RB performances where the RB took 25 or more carries in a game…and 14 of the 20 times it resulted in 100+ yards rushing games (70%). It’s not the yards that has my attention…it’s the carries.
McVay had been hinting at Akers as a lead, but then didn’t really do it several weeks ago. Through Week 12, Akers had not played more than 33% of the snaps in a game and seemed stuck in an RBBC group. Last week/Week 13, Akers played 63% of the snaps…and we started to wonder, but it also could’ve been a blip. 29 carries here…OK, I got the message. 79% of the snaps this game…yes, sir. I understand, Mr. McVay.
Talent + Touches + the coach’s desire = the elite fantasy RBs
Touches + the coach’s desire = I’ll take it for FF and not going to whine about it. I’m not going to chase fairy tales. Gimme James Conner, David Montgomery, James Robinson, Chris Carson, and Cam Akers…and you can have Jaylen Samuels, Ryan Nall, Rashaad Penny, Darrell Henderson.
Cam Akers is beloved by his coach on a good offense – I don’t need to worry about his low yards per carry, or underperformance, or lack of ‘wow’. I’ll take coach’s loyalty…to get to the 20+ carries in games, to get to the Fantasy gold.
I love Cam Akers now. Even though he’s the third-best RB on his own team. Does not matter.
What good is it if Jonathan Taylor and Clyde Edwards-Helaire are top talents or in good places, but their coach isn’t enslaved to them in the offense? Worst case their talents will be checkmated, in output, by a lesser-talented Akers or D’Andre Swift’s undying loyalty touch count. Andy Reid loves CEH…he just loves Patrick Mahomes more, as he should.
-- If I were an NFL General Manager and was given the free choice of Cam Akers or Damien Harris (11-50-0. 0-0-0/1)…I take Harris a hundred times out of 100.
If I were a fantasy GM and had to start Akers or Harris next week…I’m starting Akers 101 times out of 100.
Damien Harris has been the better back, on tape and in results all season, compared to Akers – but his coach does not worship him over all things, so we have to take that grain of FF-salt.
Harris got 20+ carries (22) in a game once this year…and rushed for 121 yards against a stout Ravens defense. Ahh, you don’t care. That was so many weeks ago…like four to be exact. Ancient history. And Harris is not a rookie so it’s not all that impressive.
I do have some hope that Harris WILL be the main guy for Belichick in 2021, and I want in on that train…but I would bet more on Akers being the guy in 2021 more than Harris. If Harris is ‘the guy’ in 2021…I want that over Akers. I think Akers will peter out into another RB2 who has random RB1 and RB3 weeks as we go into the future. Harris is showing me consistent RB1 skills upside.
Other Patriots RB notes…
Sony Michel (7-22-0) is working as a kind of a relief back, backup to Harris…and the last two weeks have given him opportunity for touches for Michel because both games were blowouts the Patriots were involved in.
James White (3-16-0, 1-2-0/2) has died since Michel has returned to action…for whatever that’s worth. Could be coincidence or not…again, ‘the blowouts’.
Harris taking lead touches is the constant for the NE backfield in all these blowouts the past two weeks.
-- Is Jared Stidham (5-7 for 27 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) taking over for Cam Newton (9-16 for 119 yards, 0 TD/1 INT)?
Probably not until Week 17.
At this moment, Cam is a liability…but with this current Patriots team, they’re built for Cam to run/play safe and work good defense to win. New England can run the table and get a playoff spot, so Belichick will go with Cam at Miami Week 15.
If the Pats lose Week 15, and are out of the playoffs, Bill will still do his ex-Pat (Brian Flores/MIA) a favor and run Cam out there Week 16 vs. BUF to try and knock off the Bills to help Miami try and win the division. If the Pats beat Miami Week 15…then Week 16 is huge for NE and they’ll go with Cam for sure against the Bills.
Stidham looks like Jimmy Garoppolo 2.0 every time I watch him work. He’s probably going to be the Pats starter in 2021 Week 1, after we go through the media rumoring the Pats to sign or trade for every QB and then rumors of them drafting every QB available in the draft. In the end, I think Stidham is being groomed to be the next Jimmy G. – sadly, the lost year of training with COVID really set the plan back some in 2020.
-- Robert Woods (5-32-0/8) and Cooper Kupp (5-33-1/5) had down FF games, and that’s a testament to the Patriots pass defense, more specifically corners Stephon Gilmore (4 tackles) and J.C. Jackson (2 tackles) playing so well here/this season.
The Patriots CBs are going to crush the Dolphins passing game/Tua Week 15. Not going to be great for the Bills Week 16 either.
-- Rams LB Kenny Young (8 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT TD return) had himself a game. His best game as a pro. He’s still just a rotational guy right now, but he is talented…but seems to be way back in the LB rotation.
LB Troy Reeder (7 tackles, 1 TFL) has gotten more run than Young has with Micah Kizer out, and Reeder was always getting 10 or more tackles in games as a fill-in starter for Kizer…until this game. ‘Just’ 7 tackles this game. Kizer should be back Week 15 and Young and Reeder are reduced.
-- PK Matt Gay (1/1 FG, 3/3 XP) seemed like he would be inactive for this game when the Rams called up/activated a PK a few hours before kickoff. However, whatever the issue was…the practice squad PK was made inactive for the game, ultimately, and Gay kicked without issue.
Week 15 hosting the Jets indoors/in LA is good. Week 16 at Seattle should be fine too. We’ll see what the weather is there on that one…could be 50s and rain, helping stall drives and settling for FGs…maybe.
Snap Counts of Interest:
55 = Higbee
53 = Everett
50 = Akers
07 = D Henderson
06 = M Brown
27 = J White
22 = D Harris
15 = Michel
31 = Keener
23 = Asiasi
