- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 6: Game Analysis: Cardinals 38, Cowboys 10
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
How bad are ‘dem Cowboys? I mean…this has to be one of the five worst run organizations in football, no? Like the Jets then the Giants, then Bengals…then maybe the Cowboys or Eagles? The Browns seem more stable today.
When Jerry Jones has a football decision to make, he’s going to butcher it. He keeps hiring incompetent coaches because Jones may be smart as a whip in other things but he’s terrible in football people decisions…partly because he wants subordinate lackeys and some of it is he’s just bad reading football people. I mean, only an idiot would hire Mike McCarthy after his Green Bay ending. Nothing McCarthy has done for the past decade has given anyone confidence in him…and yet Jerry paid him a monster deal to come sleep-at-the-switch for Dallas.
Mike McCarthy was a mistake. Taking Ezekiel Elliott in the draft over Jalen Ramsey was a mistake. Paying Ezekiel a monster contract was a mistake. Taking CeeDee Lamb as a 1st-round pick was a mistake. Mistake after mistake with Jerry is catching up. Jerry has the best personnel guy in the business, Will McClay but messes that up by making his own 1st-round picks and hiring terrible coaches to manage good players. The Cowboys don’t have a talent issue…it’s worse, it’s a management issue. And that management issue cannot be fixed this year or any year until Jerry retires.
The constant fumbling around and big deficits early in games – it was happening with Dak before, and then again with Dalton here…it’s a coaching issue. Nothing more, nothing less. Imagine where Dallas would even be had Jerry gotten to draft Paxton Lynch instead of taking Dak. Jerry wanted to draft Lynch so BAD he almost started crying on TV when someone else took him. Without Dak, Dallas would be adrift…worse than they are now.
This was not Arizona winning…this was Dallas being Dallas, and Arizona stepped out of the way and let the Cowboys faceplant.
Dallas is (2-4) and they are probably not going to win the NFC East. I don’t know who is, but it’s not Dallas. Philly by attrition maybe but NYG or WSH still have a chance.
Arizona (4-2) wins to get to four wins on the season and that should be a nice story, but all the story coming from this is (rightfully) so is how bad Dallas is. Arizona is fortunate that Dallas took the bullet here, because the Cardinals weren’t that great in this game, and they secretly stink…but beating the Jets and Cowboys the past two weeks is a smoke screen from that reality. Arizona is going to start getting exposed starting Week 7 v. SEA.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- We begin, per usual in an Arizona recap, with the Kyler Murray (9-24 for 188 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT, 10-74-1) Report…and the report is not good.
9 of 24 passing (37.5%)? At home, against Dallas? In a dome/perfect weather?
Had Kyler not hit Christian Kirk (2-86-2/3) for a broken coverage, wide-open 80-yard TD…he was 8-of-23 passing (34.8%) for 108 yards otherwise. Thank goodness, for FF, Kyler is still running the ball heavy.
I don’t see Kyler Murray getting any better as a passer, and I don’t see this offense doing anything better than last year. It’s the same tired plays and routes, only this year Kyler is running more and that is opening up opportunity. And Kyler is a gifted arm talent, so he makes plays…and is more comfortable in his NFL shoes now. I would FF-fear this ‘no progression’/this offense + seeing the weakening passer numbers/volume, EXCEPT the schedule is GOLDEN ahead. They don’t face a top 10 pass defense until Week 12 at NE.
The closing schedule is rougher…Weeks 12-16 are all against top 10-15 pass defenses and two potential cold weather games Week 12 at NE, Week 14 at NYG.
Kyler is working for Fantasy. The #2 PPG QB in the game right now (4pts per pass TD). He should keep working for FF, but a slowdown coming starting Week 12 potentially. He’s putting up great numbers, he’s running a lot, he has a great name – I’m not against trading him super high or just sticking with him. He won’t hurt you bad. But I see some things that worry me for the future, so if I made a killer deal to get multiple great pieces in a deal, especially if I get Josh Allen or Justin Herbert, either QB + a great piece (especially in a 6pts per pass TD and/or with bonuses for yards), I’m looking at it.
You need do nothing.
I’m just sharing what I see…and what I see is starting to worry me on how great, how high-end sustainable this will be.
In another week, he might be the highest scoring player in all of FF 2020. It’s not like we got a massive problem here.
Any Dynasty owners complaining that I said he was the top Dynasty Rookie prospect in 2019…and to make major deals to get him? You’re not wanting Josh Jacobs over Kyler instead/anymore, I bet. The thought process and reality on Kyler back in 2019 is working, but I’m not just going to fall asleep on it and assume it’s all gold from here. Mahomes it is all-gold all the time…Kyler, I’m not so sure.
-- Kenyan Drake (20-164-2, 0-0-0/2) was on his way to another ‘meh’ NFL and FF performance, but a late game 3rd & 1 play to run the clock turned into a wide-open 69 yards TD run and made Drake look like a star, on paper.
If I owned Drake, I couldn’t sell him fast enough off this output – it was mostly a fluke.
The schedule of pass defenses ahead is pretty sweet, but those opponent’s run defenses are great. Not a good outlook ahead for the sluggish/mediocre Drake.
-- I’d be selling Christian Kirk (2-86-2/3) to anyone who would believe he is anywhere near a WR2 now. If they didn’t, I’d hold and just let him take advantage/have hope with this sweet pass game schedule ahead.
I’ll buy DeAndre Hopkins (2-73-0/8) if anyone is panicking.in PPR. Hopkins is a great target for Kyler but note that DHopk only has 2 TDs this season…on a pace for 5-6 TDs this season. He’s putting up old Keenan Allen numbers…big volume, big catches, so-so TDs.
Rounding out the Arizona WRs…Andy Isabella (0-0-0/2), I pray he gets traded. He’s so not used properly in this offense it’s silly. A wasted draft pick…and 2nd-rounder in 2019.
-- Like I was saying Sunday morning about Andy Dalton (34-54 for 266 yards, 1 TD/2 INTs)…
I could not understand why all the ‘the team will barely miss a beat with Dalton instead of Dak’! chatter was happening. Who thought that? It was all the highly paid analysts. Why do they think that? Because they have no idea what they’re doing…and they’re also giving advice on other things they know nothing of – like they think Josh Allen is fading.
If anyone watched this game start-to-finish, it was Joe Flacco 2019 and 2020-esque. I think so many analysts are like Jerry Jones…so sold a bag of goods on a prospect like CeeDee Lamb (7-64-0/10) that they think the offense is bulletproof because of the great CeeDee joining the mix of Amari-Gallup.
First off, Chase Claypool and Justin Jefferson are already 10x better than Lamb, so it was a stupid pick already…easy to say/judge that today. You would never draft Lamb ahead of Claypool or Jefferson knowing what you know now. I could name 3-5+ other rookie WRs better than Lamb, but I’ll just stick with the two most obvious to prove the point immediately.
Secondly, Cedrick Wilson (2-10-0/3) is as good/better than CeeDee Lamb.
Third, Lamb took a lot of garbage time throws late to pump his numbers but into the 4th-quarter his numbers were a nightmare.
I implored you, for the low amount of FFMers who have him, to sell him hot last week…you still have a chance this week.
-- I loved all the Ezekiel Elliott (12-49-0, 8-31-0/11) excuse making on MNF. Some guys are assumed elite and bulletproof and their mistakes are not really their mistakes, they are written off as ‘not them’/’need to clean up’. Zeke is beyond reproach, as is CeeDee Lamb…and it’s going to destroy, and already is, the Dallas Cowboys franchise.
The Dallas ownership believes a lie/lives in its own world, and the TV people and their fans keep enabling them.
They are still selling an s-ton of Dallas merch…so, who’s the fool in this equation?
The Cowboys have 3 playoff wins since 1997…and no NFC finals appearances.
Zeke Elliott is well-paid/getting fat-dumb-happy, his numbers are in decline, his on-field face/body language seems ‘checked out’. He’s going to get the touches of a high-end RB1 but producing high-end RB1 numbers is now in question for 2020. We might start seeing the Saquon Barkley problem here – bad O-Line, defenses stacked against him, and you hope he somehow finds his way to TDs and catches to have decent FF numbers.
5 fumbles this year, 4 fumbles lost.
I’m going to take a shot of Diet Dr. Pepper every time I hear an analyst say, this week, that Zeke just needs to clean that up and I know he will, about his fumbling.
The issue is the O-Line first and foremost, now compounded by the QB play. Zeke is solid, but now he’s taking on big hits with little blocking like never before and he’s being exposed as ‘good’ not ‘great’ – but Jerry already paid for ‘great’. Most RBs are a function of their O-Line…so, Zeke is in trouble for the rest of 2020.
Make sure you own Tony Pollard (10-31-0, 2-9-0/4) just in case…
-- The Cardinals-DST looked sharp here, but don’t get sucked in by them. They are the #9 DST in FF PPG through Week 6, but much of that came early in the season. Their defense has been fading for weeks and lost Chandler Jones a week ago – they just luckily drew Flacco-Dalton in back-to-back weeks. Russell Wilson this week…no thanks.
Snap Counts of Interest:
54 = Elliott
32 = Pollard
42 = Drake
23 = Edmonds
50 = Kirk
48 = D Hopkins
38 = Fitz
19 = Isabella
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 6: Game Analysis: Chiefs 26, Bills 17
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
This will be known as the game that took this from a potentially great FFM week to just an OK/decent/good one across the land.
For some, it was the one that might have near-destroyed many a fantasy season for FF teams struggling, needing a win to take their (1-4) team to (2-4) and a game out of the race and an all new season outlook ahead…instead they got dealt a loss and a drop to (1-5).
What caused such destruction from this game?
Anyone FF-tied to the Chiefs and Bills high functioning passing games…a game that was set up for an offensive explosion/battler – it instead pissed down a misting rain all game and made the passing game a challenge from the opening throw. The Chiefs started to run the ball easily and then they kept running and dominated the time of possession.
It was a 2020 low for pass attempts by Patrick Mahomes…a career low for a non-Week 17 regular season game amount of pass attempts for him. It was an Andy Reid career record (if I heard it correctly) 46 rushing attempts. That’s not ‘normal’…not what we built on for FF.
It was Josh Allen’s lowest pass attempts of 2020 in a game by far. It was his lowest total completions in a game in 2020 by nearly half of the next lowest…as they barely had the ball in the 2nd-half.
What’s scary is (if you have Mahomes-Tyreek-Kelce, etc.)…Buffalo just gave the blueprint for a way to defeat KC, and it would kill many of us for Fantasy, but I don’t think the NFL will pick up on it or try. We forget, for as sloppy as this game was, for obvious reasons, the Bills went down just 6 points with 6+ minutes left…one drive stop away from having a chance to win it late. KC converted two 3rd & longs and kept driving and took a field goal to put it out of reach. Buffalo was in this game for everything going against them, seemingly.
You think you saw ‘Buffalo can’t stop the run’. You did, but I think that was their plan – force the Chiefs to run, and run successfully it might wind up…but don’t let them get passing game momentum, give up plays, keep the clock running, hope the rookie RB pops the ball loose in the rain. The underdog Bills tried to win an actual football game with a left-handed, unorthodox strategy…but it killed Fantasy Football output. Just a theory.
You can get mad all you want about it for FF…but it was a smart underdog v. the best passing team in football in the rain strategy. And people are FF-mad…I’m FF-mad, because if this game were played in normal conditions it would have been a different strategy/outcome, and strategies against KC tend to blow up into heavy passing shootouts. The Maid of the Mist game forced this in a whole other direction…and it wasn’t good for many of us for FF on both sides spare Kelce and CEH.
I’m mad, but there’s opportunity that is going to come from this if you keep your wits about you…or for those who had nothing involved with this game and don’t much care – oh, there’s opportunity. I’ll explain in a moment.
You don’t want to be the team that faces Buffalo this week…oh, wait it’s the Jets. If you play for the Jets, you don’t want to be on the team anyway. It’s going to be ugly, taking Buffalo to (5-2) heading to a Week 8 showdown with the Patriots, where they can end the Patriots’ reign. We see Buffalo hitting 10 wins and winning the AFC East as it stands today.
KC is now (5-1) and their next test is Week 11 at LV, and Week 12 at TB…Weeks 14-15 at MIA, at NO is not easy either. The Chiefs project to (12-4/13-3) for us right now…and maybe not a #1 seed. We see the Ravens getting that still, due to their easier schedule, but a lot of football to go.
As we get into the player section, you need to put on a different set of glasses to view this game/outcome through. You have to realize the following, whether I will just have described your thoughts (this moment)…or I am exactly describing others you’re going to deal with – it’s these others that you want to go find/expose/seek and destroy in a trade.
The mindset is – more than a few FF teams lost games they thought they had won if their KC-BUF players just had a decent/normal-ish game. Many didn’t and now temper tantrums are going to be thrown. I’m not speculating that – it’s a fact. I see/hear it already. A Monday Night Game…for all the world to view…a big let down at a pivotal part of the FF season…and these stupid players can’t even act right, and they must be punished…and some we need to runaway from and seek relief from any player that had a good Week 6, unlike their terrible players who can’t even score a few points on live television.
That ‘mad as hell’ sentiment exists…it is real within many because it’s the FF-way – whatever happened last game is the truth going forward with non-star players and in order to be a good FF manager you need to punish them by trading them for things, to show them who is the boss…to show you’re not taking this loss lying down. Fire sales begin today on some players from this game/mentality/angst.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- This is the best window to buy Josh Allen (14-27 for 122 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT, 8-42-0). He had a mediocre Week 5 (in the rain v. TEN) and then looked bad here (in the rain) but his FF-stats actually weren’t bad. They just weren’t ‘wow’. Two weeks in-a-row of not-wow equals ‘he sucks’ to people who already fear he sucks and was a three-week hoax to start the season.
The thing is…people, by and large, don’t believe in Josh Allen. We’ve been conditioned for two years that he sucks. I, chief among them. Then he’s amazing Weeks 1-3, and we’re seeing ‘whaddya know, look who is playing awesome’ stories all over pregame shows…but it’s done in the sense of disbelief, waiting for the other shoe to drop…waiting for that old reality to strike. This ‘shoe is dropping’ sentiment seems close to becoming reality with two ‘meh’ FF games in a row. Really, it’s three in-a-row of solid/OK/good but not the Weeks 1-2-3 wow.
122 yards passing here in this game, 51.9% completions…the guy is regressing! I know that’s what many Allen owners think today.
From them, I am going to go try and buy all the discounted Josh Allen stock I can.
You know where I stand on Allen for weeks – this is real, it’s not a hoax. It’s closer to ‘special’ than ‘concerning’.
Within this ‘terrible’ game, I saw Josh Allen make some throws that were unreal. Allen was not wild/inaccurate in this game…this game with a constant wet spray all game. He was on the mark most of the night and hit several guys on the money, but they couldn’t make the play.
On the first series, 3rd & long, Allen in some muddiness just cranked off a throw off his back foot on a dime to John Brown for an easy first down, but Brown slipped in his cut and was falling as the pass came in, and it ended up hitting him (wide open) in the face mask for an incompletion. Had that subtle money throw landed, the Bills were likely scoring first in this game on the first drive. It was very wet, things happen…but subtle things like this get overlooked versus ‘just the box score’/FF numbers.
3rd-series, KC up 7-3, Allen in some muddiness in the pocket…Allen stepped up, looked like he might run, then looked like he was going to dump it short, but then just decided with no feet really planted to just flick it deep for 50+ yards to a streaking Stefon Diggs – and he hit Diggs in stride, over two defenders, the most perfect ball placement throw of 2020 perhaps, it hit Diggs in the hands running full speed near the back of the end zone, and Diggs couldn’t haul it in. It was an MVP type throw…and nobody cares because it wasn’t completed.
I’m telling you Josh Allen is playing great football. He’s better than, more of an MVP 2020 type player than Lamar Jackson right now. He’s on a level, to some degree, with what Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert are doing…and Allen will run on purpose, like a boss, to get things done. He had several purposeful runs in this game to convert 1st-downs and keep the drive moving.
You should invest in Josh Allen while the price has dropped…because people don’t really trust him, and the recent ‘good/OK’ games and the two back-to-back NFL losses are only confirming fears. Rotoworld notes said ‘he looked like his 2019 self’ and ‘the weather made no difference for Mahomes’.
The State sponsored media message is out there. After Week 3, the ‘cool kids’ all noticed how good Allen was and did there ‘well, lookie here…you dolts out there probably don’t know that Josh Allen is playing really well, so let us do a 2-3 minute segment acting surprised and pointing it out with a laugh’ routine. After Week 6, the ‘cool kids’ are going to turn on Allen because it’s easier to reconcile…it means all their/our prior scouting was right.
I’m telling you…it is not.
Now, I’m not saying go trade Allen for Mahomes. Come on. I’m just saying…Allen was a top 3 FF QB getting fawning press all Weeks 2-3-4, and the price was jacked. Now, he’s falling back to a ‘who cares, I could get the same numbers from Carr-Ryan-Tannehill’.
The time is now to strike.
The one issue to making a great trade this week…he faces the Jets this week. People may want to have that matchup. Make a deal right now but for after Week 7 if you have to. Agree to it now, but that you’ll execute it Week 8. If you let Allen go shred the Jets and bring his price back up, you’ll have missed your window.
Remember…we’re/I’m excited about Allen…not them. I don’t care what they tell you, believe they are panicked. Don’t fall for their words.
-- Because of the sloppy weather, reduced time of possession/low pass attempts…all the Bills receivers go on sale…
Stefon Diggs (6-46-1/8) did good FF-numbers, but not great…and him being tied to ‘terrible, fading Allen’ – Diggs can be had, reasonably, just like the past few weeks. He’s a top 3 fantasy WR, trading like a top 12-15. Keep getting him.
John Brown (0-0-0/4)…two of the first three passes of this game were to Brown, and the one I described earlier (where he slipped) was the summary of his night. They tried to get him going at first, just back from injury, but the conditions and then lack of Buffalo time of possession of the ball started hurting everything. In a regular weather game, Brown will benefit from the attention to Diggs. He would have benefitted here if it were any type of normal game. Eventually, he was just used to clear out space for shorter throws.
You probably won’t need to trade for Brown…he might be cut by teams this week. In trade, he’s a WR3-4 now…a throw in for you. Take him. Get him for depth. You want the #2 WR on a top passing team…and remember, only we believe that, not ‘them’. Don’t overpay. Don’t even pay in many cases…just wait for him to get cut. Facing the Jets this week may keep him on people’s rosters is my angst.
-- Devin Singletary (10-32-0, 1-13-0/2) is all but dead. Good start to this game…really good, and then the game started getting away and forcing Buffalo to pass more in the limited time they had the ball.
It doesn’t matter how good Singletary looked early in this game, or what my scouting of Singletary is…the Bills have the worst run blocking offensive line in the NFL. Not my gut feeling, but many metrics would confirm…if not the worst, one of the worst.
Devin Singletary is running behind a bad O-Line, splitting some touches with Zack Moss (5-10-0), and Josh Allen takes the bulk of the short TD runs because he can/it works. Devin Singletary is a dead RB3. He does start/play and get touches and sometimes things happen, so he has that value, but otherwise…for 2020…of what I see of this run game…he’s dead. Nearly cut-able in a 12-team/17-man roster league, but everyone needs RB depth and at least DS starts/plays good snaps/gets decent touches.
You can’t count on Singletary ahead in 2020 for FF.
-- Clyde Edwards-Helaire (26-161-0, 4-8-0/4) blew up with a nice game…but, again, the Bills have a bad run defense, and I think the Bills were welcoming this run game to try to keep KC off balance and then try to make plays holding them out of the end zone when the field got short. They wanted KC to run, and they did.
Whatever it was…CEH is good, he had a good game…didn’t score a TD, again.
CEH will start ahead. Le’Veon Bell will slowly integrate in…and I think be more of a WR/RB than a real RB but gets goal line. If the Jay Glazer report on Bell is true (not brought in to start), and that report is the talk of FF this week AND then Bell plays like 10-15 snaps Week 7…then Bell’s value will plummet, then you can come in to make a PPR deal if you want to see if Bell is going to be a slick PPR and goal line back play.
CEH? I’d feel out the trade market and see if you can flip him to something bigger, but the Le’Veon effect is still strong. Fears abound on CEH. Like the early weeks of Ronald Jones disbelief we capitalized on to get him cheap for Leonard Fournette takeover fears. CEH has more fear than hope from people right now, hard to trade into that…but you might find a rookie lover out there to pay big. You don’t need to dump CEH…but ‘sell high’ is good…if you want.
-- I am never going to recommend Mecole Hardman (0-0-0/1) again no matter how good the matchup looks. I already don’t like Mecole as a talent/WR to begin with but even the football genius that I am gets sucked in by ‘with Mahomes’ in a good matchup with Sammy Watkins on the shelf has to work. It rarely/never does.
I can see week-after-week that Mahomes (and the coaching staff) has little trust in Hardman. He’s just a random event every 4-5 weeks for a deep ball play in a game. Good luck guessing which week it happens.
-- Now, get ready for your KC-DST hold to pay off nicely/higher…
Weeks 7 at Drew Lock, Week 8 v. Jets, Week 9 v. Carolina.
The Las Vegas game meltdown Week 5 is a thing of the past. It randomly happens to most good defenses in 2020. Heck, the Ravens gave up 28 points to the Eagles this week. Indy gave up 21 points in a blink to Cincy before anyone knew what happened.
The best defenses for FF are the ones that face the Jets or the NFC East/Giants or Eagles or Redskins or Dallas. Nothing else matters as much, or just randomly happens.
Snap Counts of Interest:
51 = Brown
51 = Diggs
34 = Beasley
33 = Davis
40 = Singletary
13 = Moss
49 = CEH
23 = D Williams
69 = Demarcus Robinson
67 = Tyreek
29 = Mecole
28 = Pringle
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 6: Game Analysis: 49ers 24, Rams 16
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
Going into this game…
-The 49ers were crushed by Miami prior week and Jimmy G. effectively quasi-benched for poor play and the SF defense giving up points like crazy.
-The Rams being argued as the best team in football by some (not me) and was favored to put SF out of their misery in this game.
In this game…
-The 49ers blew the doors off of the Rams…the final score not indicative of how outcoached, how out-planned, how out-efforted the Rams were by the 49ers.
I’m stupid…
-Last week, I thought the 49ers were on the brink of season over and should sell-off and prep for 2021 and that Jimmy G. might be benched/traded with another bad game/loss.
BUT…I did bet on SF + the points, because the NFL does the opposite of what you think, always.
The delicate genius (Sean McVay) was put in his place by the better, true young-genius head coach…Kyle Shanahan. It was 21-6 SF at the half and the Rams held down the 49ers in the 2nd-half, just a FG for scoring for SF in the 2nd-half missing Raheem Mostert to an ankle injury, but the Rams couldn’t score a TD until 3+ minutes left and then couldn’t stop the 49ers to get the ball back. A 38-22 minute time of possession advantage for the 49ers…and the 22 minutes the Rams had the ball was Jared Goff playing as bad as Jimmy G. did the week prior.
The 49ers keep their season alive…a loss would have really sent them reeling. The 49ers are now (3-3) with a tough stretch the next six weeks (at NE, at SEA, GB, at NO, BYE, at LAR…four road games, two in Eastern time zone, all with playoff expected teams). We are projecting SF to 8-9 wins now, but 7 wins in play still. Tough schedule, many injuries to deal with…it’s an uphill climb for the 49ers.
The Rams fraud season got exposed. (4-0) vs. the NFC East so far…and (0-2) against everyone else. Bad news…no more NFC East on the schedule the rest of the way…and a VERY tough schedule ahead. We project the Rams for 8-9 wins…with 7 possible, and 10 wins not out of the question…depends upon what the delicate genius does at RB ahead.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- I don’t know what to say about the chronicles of Darrell Henderson (14-88-0)…he’s a starter, no he’s splitting, wait he’s an RB1 of the future, no…switch that -- trade him hot off his 2 TD game, but wait here comes Cam Akers, no…Akers plays 1 snap and DH is the clear starter. It’s a whipsaw.
All I know for the future is what happened in this game:
Henderson started, played 53% of the snaps (Brown 45%), took the huge bulk of the touches. He looks and feels and sounds and quacks like a main carry starting RB…so, he must be one?
I also can say – he looked fantastic in this game and if they would’ve pushed him more the game outcome might have been different but they went heavy Jared Goff early, and he was a disaster, and then they were down and chasing. DH had a sweet 5+ yard TD run here…but called back for penalty.
Unless Sean McVay says something different…I’m sucked back in for Week 7, with him as an RB1. I’m also back buying him low if possible…because the FF game tally here was just 8.8 pts., so there may be some complacency with him. I’m not buying at all costs because if DH works a 50/50 split with Akers next week we’ll all be crying again.
Henderson has a tentative hold on the ‘main workload’ role, right now.
-- The two best RBs (ignoring the great Derrick Henry), visually, as an experienced scout, that I’m watching every week are…
#1b) Darrell Henderson (not joking or being a DH homer) – the toughest runner in the NFL, period…with explosive speed/burst and excellent interior vision.
#1a) Raheem Mostert (17-65-0, 2-11-0/2).
Mostert is getting faster with age. He is running like he’s floating on air and always has space to get ramped up it seems. I watch David Johnson run into brick walls the moment he gets the handoff, while I watch Mostert get a five-yard head start on every one of his runs.
*I wrote the following before I knew Mostert was going on I.R.*
I want to buy all the Mostert stock I can…if his ankle is OK. He came out of the game 2nd-half and his status for Week 7 is unknown. He was still dressed, standing on the sidelines at the end…not carted off or anything. However, the Rams closed the lead to 8 and had the ball with 3+ minutes left and if the Rams stopped the drive they could’ve had a shot to win…a big, crucial drive…and UDFA rookie JaMycal Hasty (9-37-0, 0-0-0/1) was in to close it out (and looked very solid). That’s pretty good trust for a UDFA rookie who has barely played…which scares me on Mostert’s ankle.
Four thoughts:
1) I want Mostert…only once I know his ankle is not something tragic/bad.
2) If Mostert has to miss a week, I bet JaMycal Hasty leads the 49ers in RB touches Week 7. Unless…
3) If Tevin Coleman is really back Week 7 (and I think he will be, but not 100% sure), then it might be a Tevin/Hasty 50/50 split…and a Mostert-Tevin 70/30 split for the future.
4) Jerick McKinnon seems dead to Kyle Shanahan. I’ve thought that for two weeks now. He will make the backfield a trio if Mostert out and Tevin back.
*Obviously, I’m not investing in Mostert now. He’ll miss at least 3 games. If Tevin Coleman is back, he’ll be the starter.
Yards before contact per attempt 2020 (2.0+ yards are what you want to see for good blocking for the RB, and I rarely ever see 2.5-3.0+):
4.9 = Mostert
3.0 = Henderson
--------- (some context names below) ----------
3.1 = Derrick Henry
1.8 = Zeke Elliott
1.6 = David Johnson
0.9 = Singletary
-- JaMycal Hasty looked very energetic and confident with his big chance. He looks like a real/useful NFL RB. He’s like a (old) Devonta Freeman ‘try hard’ RB not as athletic but high effort’s his way through things. He’ll be solid if forced into action, like most decent RB prospects.
-- I loved what I saw from Darrell Henderson and Raheem Mostert in this game (and this season), but maybe the most impressive here: Deebo Samuel (6-66-1/6).
Deebo is being used as a quasi-RB with all those short pitch passes in motion coming across the QB and with his jet sweeps. He’s also being used like he IS the most important thing in the offense. WRs are slave to their QB for FF…and slave to the opposing coverage, weather conditions, score/game flow, etc. -- passing can be amped or throttled back depending upon score but Deebo gets his touches like a quasi-RB, so he’s not as tied to the aerial assault need.
Deebo might, like this game, ‘catch’ 3-4-5 passes a game on these little push passes in the backfield before we get into regular pass routes or jet sweeps. Which means Deebo is in the WR1 race for the ROS.
-- I thought Jimmy Garoppolo (23-33 for 268 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT) looked about as bad as he ever had last week…and that his job might be on the line in this game. Well, he played as good a game here as I’ve seen him the past 10+ games.
Jared Goff (19-38 for 198 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT) looked as bad here as Jimmy G. did last week…and, at least, JG had the excuse of coming off an injury last week. Watching Goff in this game…I know he’s a solid QB talent, but he’s not a QB as built for this new era of mobility and athleticism. He’s going to be good but never elite in his career, not in this era. He’d have been really good in the 90s and 00s, and early 10s (like a Matt Ryan).
-- The quintessential Tyler Higbee (3-56-0/4) 2020 game…which is why I was jumping off last week. The Rams WRs were getting killed/squashed all game, and there was never a shift to more Higbee. Actually, this was a ‘big move’ to Higbee for the Rams…4 targets.
-- Rams LB Micah Kiser (13 tackles) was back in the lineup from injury and starting and getting his big tackle counts again. Troy Reeder is a distant memory…just a spot start last week.
-- One of the reasons the 49ers defense was tight on the Rams WRs? The renewal of Jason Verrett (3 tackles, 2 PDs, 1 INT) at CB. The 49ers have stuck with him for years letting him recover from multiple ACLs, and he is now starting and has allowed a shockingly low 12.0 QB rating in his 4 starts.
I watched some of Verrett’s coverage in this game…it was good but not ‘wow’, but I also noticed Goff staying way away from him. If Verrett is back to being a shutdown corner than that changes the 49ers downfall in the secondary…awaiting a Richard Sherman return.
I still believe the 49ers defense just gives up too many points, as I chronicled last week…they’ve been terrible their past 10-15 games. Now…no Bosa, no Sherman, Buckner traded, linebackers hurt every other week. All I can assume is this Rams game was an outlier…because it was. Only 2 QB hits and no sacks for the SF-DST and yet Jared Goff played like he was facing the 85 Bears. I don’t believe the 49ers-DST turned a corner here, but they did stop the bleeding.
Snap Counts of Interest:
35 = Mostert
23 = McKinnon
15 = Hasty
32 – Henderson
27 = M Brown
01 = Akers
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 6: Game Analysis: Ravens 30, Eagles 28
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
The Ravens were leading this 17-0 at the half, and it could’ve been by more…and the Eagles were helpless versus the superior Ravens – I thought my Blazing Five Ravens pick (-7.5) was in the bag. All of the sudden the Eagles score 3 TDs in the 4th-quarter and are ‘going for two’ for a tie with two minutes left (and failed).
This was really one of those games where the superior team jumps on the inferior opponent and then just gets bored, conservative, and just starts sleepwalking…but the opponent keeps scrambling their way back in + mix in a little luck…and I’m sure the Ravens were just as shocked when Philly lined up for the two-point conversion.
The Eagles scratched and clawed with no Ertz, no Sanders…and get it to down 30-28 looking for two – and then the team that created the ‘Philly Special’ and who drafted short yardage ace wildcat QB Jalen Hurts…well, they coaches chose to run a basic play where Wentz tried to fake a handoff and keep it and he got tackled for a loss and ‘game over’ (and Hurts not on the field).
Such an admirable coaching job to keep the team going in a huge deficit…and then you climb all the way back and on the play of the game, the two point conversion try to tie, they use the most basic play in the playbook. I will never understand NFL coaches as long as I live.
Baltimore is (5-1) and heads into their bye week, just in time to extra prep/rest for the big showdown with the Steelers. Should the Ravens lose to an undefeated Steelers…there will be some nervousness in Baltimore that they don’t have ‘it’ in 2020.
I’ll bet the Ravens beat Pittsburgh (at home with an extra week of prep) and then we project them to go on to a 13-14-15 win season. Their schedule is turning even better with the Patriots not being the Patriots anymore and Dallas taking a hit without Dak.
Philly is 1-4-1…and still in the NFC East hunt. They have a two-game homestand with NYG and DAL the next two weeks but do so without Sanders and Ertz and most of their O-Line. That’s the bad news. The good news is NYG and Dallas are racked with as many issues as Philly. The schedule is too tough ahead. They Eagles project to 5-6 wins and probably losing the division to 7-win Dallas.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Miles Sanders (9-118-0, 1-0-0/2) is hurt again. Probably going to miss a week or two, I’d guess two with a Week 9 bye…but every week is critical for Philly, so he may be rushed back. I’d bet two weeks though.
As far as Week 7 TNF…it’s going to be Boston Scott (2-4-0, 2-5-0/4), and I love Scott…but I’d be wary of going too hot on him. Doug Pederson doesn’t ever seem to be as enthused with him. However, he has little choice here this week with the season falling apart and Scott is a gamebreaker.
I assume it will be a 70/30 split of Scott/Corey Clement, but this is a bad O-Line, a solid NYG defense, and a coaching staff not committed to Scott. If there’s a prop bet of who has more rushing yards in Week 7, Scott or Clement…or Jalen Hurts…it might be Hurts.
I play/chase Boston Scott for this Week 7 start…but just temper your expectations.
-- The Eagles lost their starting RB and Zach Ertz (4-33-0/10) in this game…and they’ve lost 80% of their starting O-Line. The Eagles are in shambles going into Week 7.
As soon as we all found out Zach Ertz was out for 3-4 weeks…I got a bunch of exuberant Dallas Goedert emails/texts. Hold your horses. I know many of us have TE issues, but…
Consider the following when trying to evaluate your interest in Goedert…
1) There are no reports that Goedert is healed enough to play Week 7…or Week 8. There’s no report of him even resuming conditioning or practicing yet. Maybe we’ll hear something Tuesday. But I am getting the feeling that he’s not going to be ready for Week 7.
The Eagles signed Richard Rodgers, Jason Croom, and then signed WR Hakeem Butler and are converting him to TE. There’s been a lot of TE movement/activity in Philly since Goedert went down…down with a sprained ankle PLUS a small fracture. It’s been 21 approx. days since it happened – can he recover that fast…plus, this game on a THU night gives him 3+ days less healing?
Goedert is another guy who may miss Weeks 7-8, take advantage of Week 9 bye to heal more, and fight on from there…but, again, the Eagles are running out of time. They may force things if available to.
2) How great is this going to be if Goedert does come back this week, anyway? You see how bad Zach Ertz has been. I know Goedert is more talented, but is Wentz or the coaching staff calling plays any better?
I like Goedert + Wentz – Ertz, but I’m not assuming obvious explosions when it happens. Hope but nervousness.
If Goedert doesn’t play Week 7, Richard Rodgers (3-31-0/5) is the ‘winner’/only one left…2.3 rec, for 24.8 yards, 0.0 TDs per game this season.
-- The Ravens have a minor RB issue as well, but not as pressing for them. Mark Ingram (5-20-0) is 50/50 to play Week 8 (they have a Week 7 bye) with an ankle injury. However, the Ravens have better RBs on the bench.
When Ingram went down, J.K. Dobbins (9-28-0, 2-1-0/4) was working as the lead -- but he could not really get popping. Gus Edwards (14-26-1) came in late against a worn down, but good Philly run defense and didn’t do anything either but did get a TD.
If Ingram is out, don’t get too excited for JKD…they face the Steelers Week 8, the top run D in the NFL. A shut-down run defense.
I would bet Ingram is fine for/plays in Week 8.
-- Lamar Jackson (16-27 for 186 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 9-108-1) spoke of his knee bothering as to why he hadn’t been running as much prior to this game.
I guess his knee is fine now…100+ rushing and a 35-yard TD run.
-- Speaking of running QBs, Jalen Hurts (2-23-0, 1-3-0/1)…
Every time Hurts enters the game, things get exciting and possible…so it’s only natural the Eagles barely use him overall and didn’t involve him when it really mattered.
We should see more and more Hurts Week 7 because (a) it’s working and (b) their whole starting offense will probably be inactive this week…and (c) the desperation level has to be off the charts right now.
-- Travis Fulgham (6-75-1/6) was not a factor for most of the 1st-half, then the Ravens started wandering and then the frenzied comeback attempt went full scale for Philly and Fulgham posted another great FF game.
I can’t believe it keeps working, but it does. Ride it while you can. When Reagor-DJax-Jeffrey return…IF they do Weeks 7 or 8 – then the Fulgham story starts to fall a bit…but he’ll be a starter in 2021 potentially. He has longer term legs but he’s not a future star, in my eyes…but he sure is playing solid/well right now.
-- Devin Duvernay (3-31-0/3) is better than Travis Fulgham, but in a worse spot for his production.
Just noting, I’m watching DD closely…his snap counts keep rising as are his targets/touches. If Marquise Brown goes down…Duvernay might be a shock performer in his stead.
-- Two Eagles IDPs to point out…
#1) From my IDP ‘Five Players’ from Week 6…
4) DE Josh Sweat, PHI
One of our deep sleeper and ‘stash’ IDPs for a couple years now, and he’s finally starting to emerge as a top pass rusher/defender. In 6 games this season…
1.7 total tackles, 0.50 sacks, 1.0 TFLs, 0.2 PDs, 0.2 FF per game
In Week 6 v. WSH, Sweat had a season high 5 tackles, 3 TFLs.
Sweat has been on my IDP Dynasty Stash for two+ years, one of the best-looking physical specimens as a pass rusher…but very raw and keeps grinding. He may be about to arrive as a 10+ sack a season guy.
#2) DT Malik Jackson – 4 tackles, 1.0 sack, 2 TFLs here in this game, and 2 QB hits…giving him 11 QB hits on the season, one of the best QB hit counts in the league. Just 1.5 sacks to go with, but you figure the sack counts will eventually come with all that pressure. Plus, he has 6 TFLs this season.
-- How bad is the Philly O-Line (due to injury)? The Ravens registered 16 QB hits, 6.0 sacks, and 8.5 TFLs in the game.
Facing the Eagles offense is ‘favorable’ every week for opposing DSTs of any level. How the Eagles managed to score 28 points here is a pox on the Ravens effort in the 2nd-half. Teams like the Giants, who they face next week, will play for their life and be a great start for the week against Philly.
Snap Counts of Interest:
48 = Ertz
43 = Rodgers
01 = Croom
35 = Scott
29 = Sanders
07 = Clement
62 = Brown
49 = Snead
33 = Boykin
26 = Duvernay
32 = Edwards
30 = Dobbins
09 = Ingram
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
Looking at three Fantasy notes from each game this Sunday and our five players' advisory list for upcoming waivers, trading, and deep sleepers...
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 5: Game Analysis: Seahawks 27, Vikings 26
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
I’ll remember this game for Mike Zimmer/Minnesota going for it on 4th & 1 near the goal line late to put the game away (up 5 points) and getting stuffed doing so – which then allowed Russell Wilson to have 1:57 to go get a TD/a win…and you knew he would, and he did.
I think it was the right call by Zimmer instead of taking the FG to go up 8 points, but I get the argument both ways. We complain coaches don’t play to win…and then they do, and if it doesn’t work then we complain that they’d played things unsmart. Football fans, Fantasy owners, football handicappers…all like to whine about anything that doesn’t go their way…it’s the national pastime of being a fan of football. Makes it fun and maddening to behold.
Consider Minnesota has lost to Tennessee and Seattle by 1 point each within the last 3 weeks. This is not a bad Vikings team…just missing some key players (to injury) and had terrible luck this season…and got beat bad by GB-IND out of the gates -- so we think they suck. Losing to 4 playoff teams in the first 5 games of 2020 is not a crime. I bet they go beat the Falcons by a 10+ this week to show that they are better than the average NFL team.
If the Vikings win this week, get to a BYE and can somehow get Danielle Hunter back healthy (potentially he’s out for the year) – I think they have playoff aspirations. Week 8 at GB will be their Super Bowl, and if they win that to get to a hypothetical (3-4) then have a much easier schedule to the end…I think if they beat ATL and GB they will finish with 9 wins and sneak into the wild card. If they lose to ATL or GB, the playoff dreams are probably dashed in too big an early hole to climb out of.
Seattle is (5-0), but it’s a weaker (5-0)…every game since Week 2 they’ve had to scuffle to win. Bad news…Russell Wilson has had to save them four weeks in a row. Good news…they have Russell Wilson. The 49ers are dying. The Rams are overrated. The Cardinals are a .500 team – Seattle should cruise to an NFC West title and contend for a #1 seed. What a terrible year not to have the 12th man. No way Washington/Seattle politicians open things back up/strong to help.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Let’s start with three “I was wrong” situations from this game…
#1) D.K. Metcalf (6-93-2/11) played a helluva game here. By far the best of his career, a career defining game of sorts/he’s been great all season for the NFL, for FF, but this game was a major step to Metcalf as arguably the most dominant WR in the NFL.
We all know he’s big and fast and can use power and speed to beat lesser corners in one-on-one. I’ve been amazed for two years how corners still come right up into his face and try to play tough with him as DKM swats them away and just blows them away deep. The NFL has been a 1000x easier for him than in the SEC…and it doesn’t seem to be changing anytime soon.
Witness on the final drive, 4th & 10 for Seattle from their own side of the field, looking like ‘game over’, Russell Wilson dropped back and threw a (hail mary) 30+ yard jump ball for Metcalf…who was not double covered, not a ‘safety over’ approach, but just left to streak downfield (as always) off the snap and wide open on by several yards as a much smaller/skinnier rookie CB didn’t even know where the ball was.
Mike Zimmer is a defensive genius? Harrison Smith is the Captain of the DBs?
Metcalf caught the pass – a ‘drop’ or slipped footing (in the rain) would have cost them then catch/game. It was the play of the game made possible by Metcalf…not Wilson. In some respects, Metcalf is possibly the MVP of Seattle – not Wilson. That’s how dominant Metcalf has become. This play was as big as the final one for Seattle…
On this game-winning final drive, DKM caught the game-winning TD pass on 4th & 6 (the last play basically), diving for the throw with a defender on his back, with another DB coming from the other direction, in the rain and Metcalf caught it between two guys for the win. That’s a pass Metcalf would usually drop (not a deep ball, and in-traffic)…it might be one many WRs drop in the steady drizzle. Metcalf came through.
Two huge plays for Metcalf, in the rain, in the clutch, in all kinds of varieties.
I thought Metcalf would be a deep ball guy who couldn’t work the short/interior game (because of bad hands). I thought he was one dimensional and would get figured out by NFL defensive coordinators like he had in the SEC. Instead, the NFL still doesn’t really double him/pay him respect, still corners try to come up and press him, and Metcalf has shown that he’s just too dominant for the NFL.
I WAS WRONG. Metcalf is great, not ‘good’…and is the best WR prospect from that draft…and, again, a non-1st-round WR is the best WR from an NFL Draft.
For Fantasy, he’d be my #1 WR pick of the future over all of them if I were drafting redraft or Dynasty today (which means he’ll be doubled from now on in and his numbers brought down…the RC WR jinx of 2020 ya’ all!)…he’s that dominant right now. Tyreek or Metcalf would be my battle for top dog WR for FF going forward.
Three things that come to mind as I contemplate all this…
a) Tyler Lockett (4-44-0/5) should benefit from what has to be more coverage attention on Metcalf now. Lockett might hit a hot streak ahead, but he has two down weeks in a row in FF – an excellent buy low during a BYE week (now).
b) A.J. Brown, DK’s Ole Miss teammate, is going to be a similar but different type star – physical freak the NFL doesn’t cover right either and dominates physically, so he doesn’t have to be a master route-runner, or have amazing hands, etc.
Marvel at Larry Fitzgerald and DeAndre Hopkins’s hands…while Metcalf and Brown just physically impose their will on helpless, tiny NFL DBs for their success.
c) Quick comparison…
6’3.3”/228, 4.33 40-time, 27 bench reps, 40’5” vertical = D.K. Metcalf 2018 NFL Combine
6’4.2”/238 4.42 40-time, 19 bench reps, 40.5” vertical = Chase Claypool 2020 NFL Combine
We think of Claypool as a big/speedy for his size WR – he is big and speedy, but also at a size that is just too dominant to stop for little DBs. And Claypool is the ‘better’ WR version of Metcalf…all the size/speed with excellent routes, cuts, hands.
If the future is ruled by big, dominant, physical receivers…the future is Chase Claypool not Diontae Johnson (as a comparison for the whole pool of young NFL WRs).
-- (#2) I think I under graded Justin Jefferson (3-23-0/5) for the NFL.
I thought he was talented enough, but more ‘good’ and ‘made by Burrow’. There’s a component of all of that, but the more I watch Jefferson I see more Stefon Diggs/Diontae Johnson characteristics (already) than just your run of the mill ‘good’ WR prospect.
I made fun of the 1st-round WR class…Lamb-Ruggs-Jeudy-Reagor-Aiyuk-Jefferson as either way overrated on talent (Lamb-Ruggs-Jeudy-Reagor) or just too run of the mill ‘good’ to be taken that highly (Aiyuk-Jefferson). I thought Claypool-Mims-Duvernay-Edwards-Pittman were WAY better (and they are). However, after watching 5 games of NFL work now, I hold to that opinion of the 2020 NFL Draft top WRs except I remove Jefferson from my critique. I WAS WRONG! He’s better than all those other 1st-round names it looks like.
Jefferson is still a little finesse, wiry, potentially soft/frail like Diontae Johnson fears are popping up but both an excellent ability to get open on any coverage and great hands/playmaking skills after catches with quickness and vision. You can get tougher, more experienced as a WR but you cannot teach these guys the type of Diontae and Jefferson footwork to get open on NFL CBs day one, like they have.
I’m impressed with Jefferson. I think he’ll have a choppy 2020 FF-run because of the Vikings’ offense but he’s more WR2 than WR3 the rest of the season…and a future top guy for the Vikings as Adam Thielen ages.
-- (#3) I’m never criticizing Chris Carson (8-52-1, 6-27-1/7) again.
If only my own wife, kids, parents loved me as much as Pete Carroll loves Chris Carson. All the key carries and now a master in the pass game. I don’t get it, but someday I will accept it as unwavering reality.
Chris Carson is now 5th among all NFL RBs in catches this season (21). David Johnson, Le’Veon Bell…two of the great receiving RBs in NFL history cannot even get more than a target in a game, but Carson is now Christian McCaffrey West all of a sudden.
Chris Carson is arguably the best RB in fantasy. Maybe my praise can bring him down? I WAS WRONG to undervalued him…AGAIN! Don’t listen to me on Carson or James Conner…I have the same issues with both.
If you’re holding onto Rashaad Penny…it’s only a hope that Carson gets hurt and Penny has to step in. I pray I never am so stupid to write another ‘Here comes Penny to take the lead role’ sentence again (while he’s in Seattle). I’m stupider than NFL corners pressing coverage up on D.K. Metcalf when it comes to disliking Carson for FF.
It was a tough recap report to write to this point. It’s hard to say you’re wrong: https://youtu.be/CvdY3HfepOo
-- You know who I’m raising projections on this week…Irv Smith (4-64-0/5).
There was a lot of talk the week leading up to this game about ‘getting Irv Smith more touches’ by Zimmer, but that’s usually the kiss of death. The 1st play of this game – designed pass to Smith (batted down). The 2nd play…a 20+ yard diving catch for Smith. He went on to a career high 64 yards game here.
Smith faces the Falcons this week…the #2 worst defense against the TE this season.
You need help this week at TE or need to take a gamble…Irv might be a real overlooked option this week.
I strongly believe Kyle Rudolph is going to be traded by the trade deadline, unless MIN starts a winning streak through Week 8. You have half a notion on Smith today, but if Rudolph went down/traded – everyone would leap at him for FF. You might want to get in early?
-- Obviously, when Dalvin Cook is out…Alexander Mattison (20-112-0, 3-24-0/3) can step in and be a 100+ yard runner, as he did here. When Cook is back…it’s right back to heavy Dalvin. There is no takeover here.
So many starting RBs are getting hurt…you have to protect your lead RBs where the backup is clear for FF.
In no particular order, some names often overlooked in this boat (like Mike Davis was)…
Bennie Snell
D’Ernest Johnson (until Chubb returns)
Gio Bernard
Darrynton Evans/Jeremy McNichols
Duke Johnson
Devontae Booker
Tony Pollard
Boston Scott
J.D. McKissic
Cordarrelle Patterson
Latavius Murray
Brian Hill
Rashaad Penny (if he returns healthy)
Tevin Coleman (when he returns)
-- This was supposed to be the game where Kirk Cousins (27-39 for 249 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT) took advantage of a favorable matchup but when Minnesota gets a lead, they just try to run the clock out (like most NFL head coaches want to do). Minnesota ran the ball 41 times and tried to sit on a lead for the first two-and-a-half quarters and then started throwing a bunch when they got down (more dink and dunk vs. Seattle playing soft trying to keep it in front of them).
Including their two playoff games last season, Cousins has not thrown for more than 276 yards in his last 11 games. He has one 300+ yards passing game in his last 15 games.
However, in his last 16 regular season games, Cousins has thrown for 31 TD passes.
Cousins is playing like a little lesser Ryan Tannehill or Derek Carr…heavy run team QBs who get throw against stacked run game defenses/boxes a lot and are efficient (good TDs) not swashbuckling (lower yards).
-- MIN LB Eric Wilson (6 tackles, 1 sack, 2 TFLs, 3 QB hits) is starting to perk up…
7.5 tackles, 1.0 TFLs, 0.50 sacks per game since Week 2.
His numbers are starting to flash LB1 signals.
Anthony Barr out for the year is giving him a little extra number boost as well. We juiced him up pretty good in the latest projections, which is usually a kiss of death on him for the past two+ years. This time he really is the coach’s desired starter – that’s the difference.
Snap Counts of Interest:
45 = Olsen
20 = Dissly
03 = Hollister
64 = Rudolph
59 = Irv Smith
10 = Conklin
54 = E Kendricks
54 = Eric Wilson
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 5: Game Analysis: Dolphins 43, 49ers 17
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
This game is being so overlooked, so misinterpreted by the media and us fans. This is a classic case of all of us seeing what we have been conditioned to see.
-We think the 49ers are a top team in general…so, we’re going to overlook all their devastating defensive injuries and keep on thinking they’re good – reinforced because they smoked the Jets and Giants in back-to-back weeks.
-We think the Dolphins are a bad team because…remember early last year?.
-We think Jimmy Garoppolo must be hurt because – how could this happen against lowly Miami if it weren’t true? He was benched because of his injury not fully healed.
The real story is…
1) The 49ers are going to be lucky to be .500 this season because of all their injuries.
2) Miami is better across the board then the 49ers because of their offseason moves and SF’s mass injuries.
You ready for this? I don’t think you are…
Since Week 9 of last regular season (last 9 games in 2019) + the 2020 season so far, the records for these two teams:
(8-5) = SF
(7-6) = MIA
If the Vegas lines are right about Week 6…that will be both (8-6) in this comparison after Week 6.
3) Miami has an emerging, excellent defense.
4) The 49ers’ downfall is their own doing on top of the injuries because Robert Selah is one of the worst, if not the worst D-C in the NFL. But the media likes his look, so the 49ers are afraid to change.
5) Jimmy G. was benched to send him a pre-warning. This wasn’t because of an injury…it was because he’s not that great and more pressing is the Miami defense is really good and gets no credit for the sheer dominance here.
The 49ers are playing for their season this week at LAR. If they lose, this season is essentially ‘over’ for them. From Weeks 7-13: @NE, @SEA, GB, @NO, BYE, @LAR, BUF. Six games they will be an underdog in. If they lose this week to LAR and drop to (2-4) they will probably lose five of their next 6 after that and be done. We could be looking at a 5-6 win 49ers team if they lose to LAR this week. 7-8 wins if they beat LAR this week. Never discount Kyle Shanahan but he can only do so much with a dying team.
I could see Kyle making a deal for Matt Ryan to try to save the season, but he might be better to just pack it in and write this year off to injury and rebuild in 2021.
Miami is now (2-3). When they beat NYJ this week they will be (3-3) heading into a BYE. I would project them to finish with 8-9 wins as it stands right now. If they stay healthy and fix their RB situation – this becomes a dangerous team you don’t want to play, especially at home…and three of their next 6 games are at home.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The resurgence of Miami is going to come from their defense. From my ‘Upside DST of the Week’ notes for Week 6:
Obviously, 'anything against the Jets' -- that's the only reason you need. But I want you to consider how good the Miami defense might be...
They're currently #10 in the league in PPR allowed to opponents...not bad.
But look at the splits based on Byron Jones:
25.0 PPG allowed = in 3 games Byron Jones was out
21.0 PPR allowed = in 2 games with Byron Jones playing/active
Check this out...
333.3 net passing yards allowed = in 3 games Byron Jones was out
134.0 net passing yards allowed = in 2 games with Byron Jones playing/active
It's a good defense for Week 6, for sure...but it may have legs beyond that.
The Dolphins defense might be a top 5-10 defense, as a unit, in the NFL ahead…IF they have Xavien Howard and Byron Jones healthy.
It’s just not the ace CBs either…it’s a solid, deep rotational D-Line. They have solid enough linebackers. They are #7 in the league on 3rd-downs as a defense (38% convert against). They are #9 in QB hits. This unit is good and was showing signs in the 2nd-half of last year starting, and added a bunch of smart free agents in the offseason…it’s coming together.
-- Thus, the Jimmy Garoppolo (7-17 for 77 yards, 0 TD/2 INTs) was not an injury issue. It was Jimmy G. is not great + rusty/not 100% + Miami’s defense.
If Jimmy G, is bad in a loss to the Rams this week…a change to C.J. Beathard may have to happen. The 49ers can easily walk away from Jimmy G. in 2021, contractually. The end of Jimmy G. might be a week away and the 49ers essentially start to tank the season instead of swimming upstream with all kinds of injuries crushing them.
-- Because the 49ers are down to 3rd-string corners, Preston Williams (4-106-1/5) saw nice targeting. Every time CB Brian Allen was on a WR, that’s where Fitz went usually. Preston was that winner a few times.
Note…Fitz took two 25+ yard shot deep balls to PW for TDs and one was a D-P.I. no play and the other was not open. Just know Fitz was trying…he was swashbuckling with Preston. Good to see.
You think Fitz will try again this week with PW vs. NYJ?
Yep.
-- Myles Gaskin (16-57-1, 5-34-0/5) avoided the Le’Veon Bell takeover…but it goes to show what I’ve been hinting at – Gaskin is a target very able to be taken out. Could be by a Todd Gurley or David Johnson or whomever in an acquisition, or it could be by Matt Breida (9-28-0, 1-31-0/1).
‘Takeout’ probably means a split of some kind in the near future. Like a 50-50 or hot hand game where Breida just stays in longer and longer. There was no sign of that here. Breida got a few good opportunities but he didn’t really cash in on any of them.
Gaskin is clearly Brian Flores’s guy…until he isn’t, but right now it’s clearly Gaskin and he isn’t really helping them but Breida isn’t doing anything obvious either.
On the Miami roster, today, Breida is the one inline if something happens to Gaskin.
-- No debate in San Francisco at RB. Raheem Mostert (11-90-0, 3-29-0/3) has runaway with it. If not for a blowout occurring, Mostert (in a tight game) would’ve seen 20+ carries easy.
Jerick McKinnon (1-0-0, 2-3-0/4)…thank you for your service…buh-bye. He’s like a non-entity anymore. A mild pass game relief back. When Tevin Coleman returns in a few weeks (if) then it’s a Mostert dominant lead with Tevin playing 25-30% of the snaps/touches.
This is your last week to buy Mostert reasonably before he has a huge touch count and could go skyrocketing in value.
-- Deebo Samuel (2-19-0/8) was a victim of three things…
1) CB Xavien Howard and the Miami defense. 80% of the issue.
2) The problem with Jimmy Garoppolo and/or C.J. Beathard, which was more the Miami defense. 10% of the issue.
3) Deebo was sick all week and away from the team for most of the week. Might have been a factor a tiny bit. 10% of the issue.
The issue #1 above, it’s a problem again Weeks 6-7…
Week 6 v. Jalen Ramsey
Week 7 v. Stephon Gillmore
-- Two IDP’s to point out…
1) MIA LB Andrew Van Ginkel (6 tackles, 1.0 sacks, 1.5 TFL)…he has 2.5 sacks in his last three games played. A hard working, 240+ pound LB who ran a 6.89 three-cone at his NFL Combine 2019 (which is very high end for his size). He played 70% of the snaps this week, double what he’s done in prior weeks. It looks like he’s emerging a bit as a pass rusher.
2) SF DT Kerry Hyder (2 tackles, 1.0 sacks, 1.5 TFLs, 3 QB hits), is a DT we keep pointing out every week because he always catches my attention. 3.5 sacks this season a among the NFL leaders with 10 QB hits.
-- As I’ve been saying for weeks…this SF-DST is dying a fast death, and it took a fatal head wound here. I’m really surprised D-C Robert Saleh didn’t get fired this week, honestly/no joke. Since their hot schedule-based (easy) start last season, this defense has been torched regularly…except beating up Daniel Jones and Sam Darnold a few weeks ago.
Against non-NY teams this season they’ve given up 24-25-43 points in games.
From Week 9 on last season the gave up: 25-27-26-8-20-46-29-31-21 in regular season games to the end of the year (over 27 PPG allowed their last 12 regular season games).
They have no defensive backfield to speak of. They lost Nick Bosa. They can’t keep all 3 linebackers healthy for more than a few weeks at a time. They are dying, but people are still holding like is the 1st-half of 2019. There is nothing here. The schedule gets much worse (their next 7 games are with likely 2020 playoff teams/good-to-great offenses). They are undermanned. They need to rebuild this completely in 2021.
Because some people are holding onto the past, you can probably add them as a sweetener in a deal this week to open up a space (if you have).
Snap Counts of Interest:
31 = Mostert
16 = McKinnon
15 = J Wilson
62 = Aiyuk
57 = Deebo
42 = Gaskin
21 = Breida
10 = Laird
10 = Bowden
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 5: Game Analysis: Texans 30, Jaguars 14
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
Here’s what we really need to understand about this game, in three parts…
1) Jacksonville entered missing it’s top/elite pass rusher (Allen), it’s top ranked (by PFF) linebacker (Jack), and its shutdown corner (Henderson). The heart and soul of defense…gone…and it just happened this week/game. Plus, they lost their top slot corner (Hayden) coming in (on I.R. now) and were down to a backup safety starting…who they then lost in-game, going to their 3rd/4th-string rookie.
A so-so/erratic/young defense lost 4-5 of its best players for this one game (and maybe more ahead).
2) In this game, right before the half, under a minute left…the Jags missed a 24-yard FG which would have tied things at 10-10. Houston took over and tried to race downfield for a score before-half FG, but Watson threw a horrible pass and was picked. The Jags were set up for another FG to tie it before half…missed again.
In the 3rd-quarter, the Jags were driving for a TD to take the lead late in the quarter…they refused to kick a short FG (because of the prior issues) and went to do a trick RB-pass play and the RB fumbled and the deep drive ended with no points. Houston won the game from there.
3) The Jags were devastated on defense, and still Deshaun Watson struggled, threw two picks (and many other poor passes) for about 3.5 quarters. Watson put two TDs on demoralized JAX late and it looked like a big win/nice Watson stats. It wasn’t as good as it looked. Houston should be embarrassed by this game performance considering the backdrop.
Houston finally gets a win, but it was ugly. This team, this offense, this defense…ugly. Their season comes down to Week 6 at TEN. A win there actually keeps the dream alive. A loss there puts a bullet in their 2020 and they might as well dump everything to prep for 2021.
You could see Will Fuller and David Johnson get traded, among others if they lose Week 6.
Jacksonville lost, but, as always, tries hard. They were the better team for the most part, just undermanned and hurt by their 4th kicker (due to a rash of injuries) for the young season. The Jags have so many key injuries right now, I’m not sure when they’ll be healthy or win a game next.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- D.J. Chark (3-16-0/4) had a down game (off his 2-TD day the week prior). Couple notes on it…
1) It was as feared/as predicted, they tried to avoid the WR covered by Bradley Roby.
2) Chark left the game late with an ankle injury, but it’s supposedly not that bad and they had no reason to push him back in because the game was functionally over. I think he might play in Week 6, if you see him practicing ‘limited’ FRI.
3) Minshew took two shots at Chark in the end zone from short range in this game…missed him on one (ruled a throw away/non-target but it wasn’t), didn’t have him open on the other but almost.
Minshew is just throwing to whatever is open, not forcing things because he’s having to throw a ton. Roby provided good coverage on Chark + there were some double teams on him. The rest of the field was bountiful for Minshew so Chark had a weak day.
Risk of this happening again Week 7 at LAC, Week 10 at GB, and trouble Weeks 15-16 (BAL-CHI). Otherwise, Chark is the team’s best WR…but Minshew is not slavishly working him when it doesn’t make sense, but it’s his best look when he sees the right coverage.
-- Laviska Shenault (7-79-0/8) becomes the easy look when a top corner is working Chark, so Minshew took it. Shenault is a solid WR3 every week with a pinch of upside.
Keelan Cole (2-25-1/6) always looks great on the field but usually has just 1-2 catches for 3.5 quarters and then gets a bunch of junk late 4th-quarter when way down, and gets an extra catch or two. Then in their late hurry up, down two scores with less than a minute to go, we saw three throws to Cole in desperation, all incomplete. Cole is a WR3-4, who has WR2 talent, but WR4 targeting but WR2 TDs thus season so far.
-- Gardner Minshew (31-49 for 301 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT, 4-18-0) is working as a solid QB2…QB1 hope in good matchups.
Minshew is 11th in the NFL in passing yards per game and 7th in passing TDs.
Note…just ahead of him in those categories is Derek Carr, for the season.
…and Teddy Bridgewater is coming on strong and ahead of him in passing yards per game but behind him in TDs.
-- Deshaun Watson (25-35 for 339 yards, 3 TDs/2 INTs) is just ahead of Minshew in passer yards per game, but it’s looked terrible/been a lot of garbage that I see.
TO my eye, Watson is playing terrible football. It can work for FF because of garbage (like 330+ yards here against a stripped defense)…but Minshew-Carr-Teddy all look better on-field/on tape and have similar/better numbers.
-- David Johnson (17-96-0, 2-7-0/4) had a few 10+ yard plays in this game. There were some openings to run through late, as the defense was worn down – and they were worn down, in part, by DJ’s physical running all game.
Many of us own DJ and want to trade him off/banish him/punish him for not dancing for us on command. We do that a lot in FF…something has a few bad result weeks, and we urgently want to sell it for some other pipe dream. You are in pain over DJ, I get it. But I could rattle off a long list of other RBs with big names who are failing in fantasy but getting good touches/snaps.
Joe Mixon, CEH, Drake, Gaskin, J. Kelley, A. Gibson, Le’Veon, D Montgomery…to name a few. Josh Jacobs and Miles Sanders are really struggling, but it’s glossed over by several short TDs to pump FF numbers. DJ is not getting to the goal line often to juice his numbers with the easy TDs so far.
It’s also been mentioned by me, now chronicled by others in the media – Watson has misfired passes to a wide-open David Johnson in the end zone/easy TDs on three different occasions this season.
DJ is 26th in PPR PPG among RBs with 3 or more games played and are not on I.R. currently. If Watson completed just two of those easy TD passes, DJ would be sitting #17 among RBs in PPG…about one more TD away from the top 12.
Do you really have a David Johnson problem? Is he ‘bad’. I don’t see it. Just unlucky so far…not his fault. I’m a ‘buy low’ still.
-- James Robinson (13-48-0, 5-22-0/7) is starting to see his numbers sag as we go. He’s another guy owners are getting fussy about – no TDs, now you’re mad at him. Guys like JRob and DJ – they ARE their team’s main guy and eventually TDs will fall their way, by random luck of the universe course correcting opportunities. You have to believe it…even if it doesn’t happen. They are getting touches that warrant more FF scoring.
JRob has the 11th most carries by an RB this season. David Johnson 13th.
-- Brandin Cooks (8-161-1/12) had a big game, but the Jags were running two backup/backup-to-the-backup level CBs, so the opportunity to pick on them with Cooks was there (because the one good, remaining, Jags CB was on Will Fuller). No sudden return to greatness here.
-- With the need for so much passing by JAX, Chris Thompson (3-35-0/3) has caught 3 or more passes in three of his last 4 games…with a high of 5 catches Week 3. Not saying anything special is happening here, but he is playing like 40% of the offensive snaps now. He’s a lesser J.D. McKissic.
-- HOU LB Tyrell Adams (12 tackles, 1 TFL) took over when Benardrick McKinney went down and out. He is the assumed starter for him now. Solid enough grinder…not necessarily a future star, but gets a shot at playing time/IDP opps now.
-- JAX rookie SAF Daniel Thomas (7 tackles) was forced into action with the in-game injuries. I’m a fan of Thomas. He could work if starting/while Andrew Wingard is out…but it’s risky because Jarrod Wilson (4 tackles, 1 INT) is back now too…and he’ll be the more experienced SAF.
Snap Counts of Interest:
45 = Dav Johnson
17 = Duke Johnson
60 = Cole
52 = Shenault
50 = Chark
24 = Conley
23 = Collin Johnson (caught a TD pass…is an end zone weapon at 6’6”, but still inexperienced otherwise in routes, etc., with Minshew)
42 = J Robinson
30 = CH Thompson
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 5: Game Analysis: Ravens 27, Bengals 3
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
If any score of any game in 2020 represented truly what everyone thought going in...and then exactly what happened in reality…it was this one. What you expected to happen, happened. Joe Burrow struggled against the Ravens defense and he got hit a lot and the Ravens just toyed around and jumped ahead early and just moseyed onto victory. Nothing fresh to learn here about either team.
We won’t know how good the Ravens are until they hit Weeks 7-12: PIT, @IND, @NE, TEN, @PIT.
The Bengals next hope for wins comes Weeks 11-14 when they face three NFL East teams in a 4 game stretch…a stretch where we can answer the question – what team is worse…the Bengals or every team in the NFC East?
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Lamar Jackson (19-37 for 180 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT, 2-3-0) is killing people in FF. Last week, he missed some practices sick and has a knee injury that he’s able to play on but in a game against a helpless foe there’s no need for him to go all out so you get him playing, dialed back, and killing your FF numbers.
I think there’s a risk of it happening Week 6 vs. PHI too. In 6pts per pass TD with bonus scoring, etc., ‘favorable for passing’ league scoring – the question of whether like a Gardner Minshew is in a better spot this week is firmly on the table. You have to believe Lamar is saving himself for the difficult weeks ahead starting Week 7. It’s a concern LJax owners don’t need in their lives right now. I’m just thinking out loud…no one truly knows.
-- Joe Burrow (19-30 for 183 yards, 0 TD/1 INT) has the opposite issue…he knows going into every game he is going to get killed. He’s the #1 most sacked/hit QB in the NFL.
Another reason why Herbert is better than Burrow…Herbert is handling the lack of O-Line a thousand times better than Burrow is. And that’s not a slam at Burrow, I expect this Burrow choppiness…what Herbert is doing with that O-Line he has is the most impressive rookie QB play I’ve ever witnessed.
-- The Ravens defense can so dominate the weak, you can’t get down on the Bengals assets now…prior week/s they were rolling numbers.
It’s a good time to buy low on Tyler Boyd (4-42-0/6) or very low on Tee Higgins (4-62-0/8) if you were looking for an entry point. The Ravens corners are pretty salty.
-- Drew Sample (2-22-0/2) is not leveraging the ‘you know how Burrow loves TEs’ vibe I too thought existed. Since the Week 2 breakout in the 4th-quarter when C.J. Uzomah got hurt…Sample has had one decent game and two duds. The momentum/trend is he’s a TE2-3 until further notice.
-- J.K. Dobbins (1-34-0, 3-21-0/4) got one carry…popped it for 34 yards, and then that’s that for carries. Thank you for your service.
For the year, Dobbins has 16 carries for 126 yards and 2 TDs…an impressive 7.9 yards per carry. At some point, he’s going to emerge and then the Ravens run game will never be the same again.
Dobbins has 3 or more catches in two of his last 3 games. Very odd for a Ravens RB to get that level of pass game work with Lamar. It’s a good sign of how trusted JKD is. He just needs ‘the job’ and then he might be better than rookie RBs CEH or Jon Taylor in the situations they are in. If all three were full starters named today, I’d want JKD for FF 2020 ROS I do believe. Better offense. Excellent talent.
We may look back in 1-2 years and the answer of top Dynasty Rookie between CEH or Taylor was the answer of JKD.
-- I love Devin Duvernay (1-42-0, 2-17-/2)…talk about a guy who got screwed by his landing spot. If he were a Packer or Chief he'd be one of the rookie stars of 2020 already. Stuck in Lamar Jackson’s offense, I don’t know if he’ll be relevant for years.
John Harbaugh knows he has something here.
Two weeks ago…90+ yard kick return TD. This week, one jet sweep…42 yards.
Both Dobbins and Duvernay are giving little glimpses of the Ravens future, and absolute killer offensive weapon depth. Duvernay would be the best WR on the Jets, Giants, Dolphins right now…and he can’t get on the field in Baltimore.
Snap Counts of Interest:
63 = Sample
13 = C Carter
54 = Mq Brown
38 = Snead
36 = Boykin
18 = Duvernay
25 = Edwards
19 = Ingram
18 = Dobbins
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 5: Game Analysis: Browns 32, Colts 23
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
This was no fluke…the Browns just played a better game. I don’t know that it confirms that the Browns are good because it could just mean we just saw the swan dive of the Indianapolis Colts happen right before our very eyes. The Philip Rivers-led Colts are going NOWHERE. It’s getting so bad that I don’t think you can count this as a ‘quality’ win for the Browns, per se. Actually, it is a quality win…the Colts are dying but OK/strong defense – and the Browns just beat them from the opening kick.
I mean, look who the Browns have beaten…
They scuffled with but beat Cincy Week 2. They were losing in the 4th-quarter to Washington before rallying. They needed a bunch of turnovers and gadget plays to hold off bad Dallas. Here they beat a dying Colts team (because of Rivers…and Reich). We’ll see how good they are at PIT, at CIN, LV the next three weeks. Especially at PIT Week 6 is a huge litmus test. I’m on the fence with them…I think once they start losing, they will collapse in on themselves. If they keep finding a way to win, they almost have a college enthusiasm they’re playing with right now to ride for momentum for a while.
The Colts have the opposite of that. Frank Reich is stoic…and the Colts have taken on that personality. Philip Rivers is dying off right in front of our eyes, and the entire team knows it…but they also know Reich is not removing his friend. It’s going to get painful in Indy until they make the Jacoby Brissett move, which may be weeks away. They can beat Cincy Week 6, then hopefully beat DET Week 8 (Week 7 is a bye). Those two un-quality wins would take them to (5-2). Then they may lose three of 4 with BAL-@TEN-GB-TEN and be (6-5) with a decision to make Week 13 at HOU…on whether they’re better off with Brissett. With Rivers all the way through we project them to 8 wins in the end. A later season change to Brissett puts 9 wins in play. If they changed now, they could be a 10 win team.
It is that bad with Rivers right now…and nothing can fix what’s wrong except facing weaker opponents.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The main reason why the Browns are (4-1) is because the old Baker Mayfield (21-37 for 247 yards, 2 TDs/2 INTs) is starting to appear a little bit.
There’s an energy, a pace, a swagger that Baker has when he’s rolling that can carry an offense/franchise. Signs of it showed in his record-setting 2018 rookie season. It got taken away in 2019. He was also M.I.A. Week 1 getting brutalized by the Ravens.
Then, starting Week 2, the winning started. The heretofore problem WR duo of OBJ-Landry started playing with more pep when they started winning. OBJ looks like he cares a little bit suddenly. Against a very good Colts defense, Baker was masterful in many spots. Making the throws he did at Oklahoma and his NFL rookie season – frozen ropes to the right option at the right time. This peppy Baker Mayfield can get Cleveland to the playoffs, maybe.
The problem is OBJ and Landry are still a problem. When opposing/good teams can get up quickly and with some margin -- I think the OBJ-Landry duo will shrink and the current upbeat Browns team vibe will start to corrupt. A 2-3 game losing streak could flush them down the toilet totally/return them back to their loser ways. Winning cures everything but their schedule is going to turn tougher…and I’m not sure they can cope with the challenge. This week with PIT is a huge test of their mettle.
Baker is back, to a small degree…he still has issues and a heavy run game design to block huge FF upside, but he’s showing a pulse again.
-- T.Y. Hilton (6-69-0/10) caught a few easy, garbage passes from Rivers to go with a few medium route throws to put together his first decent FF day…I’d sell it hot this week if you need to.
The Colts will likely stick with Rivers until at least Week 8, with a change more likely Weeks 11-12…but it’s possible they just go all the way off a cliff with him. TYH suffers, is a WR3-4, with Rivers. He has a name and a good game, and people think they are buying low. There’s a thousand WRs on waivers, likely/depending on your league, that are in the ‘Flex’ range of Hilton.
I see a few people booking deals for Stefon Diggs or Keenan Allen this week using Darrell Henderson (for the RB needy) combined with Hilton (name appeal) to trade up for the better PPR WRs. Hilton as an add on that’s not really one is a savvy way to play it.
Hilton is better but still erratic with Brissett…and we could be several weeks from that, if ever in 2020.
-- Everything is fine with Jonathan Taylor (12-57-1, 2-17-0/3) except Frank Reich isn’t pushing him as his only hope. He still thinks Rivers-led is the way to go. I suspect as we go this season, Taylor will see more and more touches – out of Indy need. He would also benefit from a change to Brissett, I think.
-- D’Ernest Johnson (8-32-0, 1-4-0/1) was a big flop from the hopes of many with him off waivers last week. I wouldn’t close the door all the way on him yet.
Every time he entered this game, the Colts swarmed the run game (as they did to Hunt too…just 3.6 ypc for Hunt here)..or there was a penalty to take the touch away (it seemed). He could never get started, but late in the game Hunt had to leave and lie down holding his leg – and it was Johnson that ran well and salted the game away.
They tried to get Johnson some touches early, but they definitely favored Hunt heavy all throughout until he physically had to come out. Johnson then shined late to help them win – for the second week in a row Johnson was the late game hero, of sorts.
Hunt may be more hurt than we realize…and could be inactive…or just gets reaggravated in-game this week.
-- Odell Beckham’s (5-58-0/9) season minus the Jarvis Landry TD pass Week 4…
20 rec., 257 yards, 2 TDs in 5 games
4.0 rec., 51.4 yds, 0.40 TDs per game…7.5 FF PPG, 11.5 PPR PPG…which is a WR3 or worse type WR in PPR
His Week 4 trick play pass and end-around run TD are fluffing up a hard truth – he’s not very good/great anymore. He’s mostly ‘name’, not reality.
-- After an FF-terrible/sluggish first 3 games…Austin Hooper (5-57-0/10) is coming alive the past two weeks…5.0 rec., 45.5 yards, 0.50 TDs per game on 8.5 targets per game.
The activity is up and I think Hooper has a chance to matter as the WRs usually wind up let down and it’s a safe place for Baker to go…but also note David Njoku 1-6-0/1) returned to action this week…and rookie Harrison Bryant (0-0-0/1) has been playing good snaps as well.
Still, in a sea of problems at TE…Hooper doesn’t look terrible right now.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Njoku was traded before the trade deadline to go back to Bryant as the 2nd-TE and the Miami Dolphins or Washington FTs take a look.
-- Can you trust the Indy-DST after this mess?
It’s like the Chiefs getting whacked by LV…in this era, things happen on offense against a decent opponent. About the only sure bet right now is facing a New York team, or the Jets + any NFC East team.
The schedule is unkind after this week. You got the BYE Week 7 and then at DET is OK Week 8…then doom: BAL-@TEN-GB-TEN-@HOU-@LV-HOU@PIT. Not many favorable/sweet matchups ahead.
-- Might the Browns-DST be in-play?
Later, maybe. Not now. @PIT, @CIN, LV, BYE the next four weeks…really nothing good in there and the Browns defense is not awesome. They struggled with every team they’ve played (on defense) except Philip Rivers. Not a great ‘sign’.
Snap Counts of Interest:
58 = Hooper
29 = Bryant
21 = Njoku
51 = Hunt
22 = D’Ernest
31 = Taylor
21 = Hines
02 = Wilkins
34 = Doyle
25 = Burton
21 = Alie-Cox
