Kardelen Duyan

FFM

24 October 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 6: Game Analysis: Dolphins 24, Jets 0

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

I thought this would be the most uninteresting game report of the week. Miami shutout the Jets…not a shock. Hard to even report out on the players from the game because the backdrop of playing against the Jets warps opinions, trends, etc. However, in the final two minutes of this game…Miami trotted out Tua Tagovailoa, and that seemed meaningless at the time – until they announced him as the new starter a day later. That’s big, FF-changing news for sure. We’ll get to that.

As far as this game goes – easy win for Miami, as expected. They jumped out to a quick 21-0 lead and then kinda scuffled from there to a 24-0 victory heading to their bye week. Miami gets to (3-3) and is staring down a chance to make the playoffs. However, the move to Tua…no one knows the impact. We haven’t seen him but for two late game throws in this contest. He’s coming off a MAJOR hip injury/surgery. He hasn’t been with the first team much, you’d think. Training camp reports on him were mixed. We don’t know how this is going to go.

I’m assuming the Tua switch is going to go poorly, at first, but I’m open to the fact that the NFL play/plays are easier than college for most of the top QB prospects now…but I’m suspect on whether Tua is a top QB prospect. Miami having won two in-a-row, if they lose their first game with Tua, and it’s an ugly – there will be a fan revolt. He’s being put in a terrible situation to bring perfection right away. I hope he can, he’s a great kid…but I’d bet against it happening quickly (if at all).

Why change now? They could’ve been bringing in Tua for snaps for weeks -- just to get him ready if they were itching for a change. This absolutely smells like a rash ownership decision. Even the Bears waited for Mitch Trubisky to be ‘bad’ in a game to make the switch to Nick Foles. Miami just won two in a row scoring 33.5 points per game -- and after all that they decided to make a switch…why? Head coaches don’t mess with success like this. This has to be a decision from above…which means it’s going to bite them. When they try to switch back to Fitz, it will be weird…and could damage the Tua mystique/confidence. Too late now.

On the Tua switch, we project Miami will not make the playoffs and will go (5-11/6-10). With Fitz all the way, we projected (8-8) with a possible (9-7). I’m willing to see Tua in action to change my mind.

The Jets? They will go (0-16). They will NOT fire Adam Gase. They will pick #1 and draft Trevor Lawrence (who will not want to go there) and then they’ll trade Sam Darnold before the draft some time. Potentially Darnold to the Browns, as they trade Baker to New England.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- How will the offense change with Tua (2-2 for 9 yards, 0 TD/0 INT)? No clue.

We don’t know who he likes to throw to/who he has an on-field chemistry with. I’m hoping it’s Preston Williams (2-18-0/1), but the real answer may take weeks to figure out.

The Tua at Alabama version isn’t an easy/obvious translation to the NFL. Alabama had a dominant run game, O-Line, and WR group compared to their opponents. The Miami Dolphins offense has none of that going for them. Myles Gaskin (18-91-0, 4-35-0/4) will be the worst RB that Tua has ever played with…and Gaskin being so nothing allows defenses to sit back on Tua and play him to pass, so an even tougher road to hoe.

I’d like to tell you what all will happen ahead, but I haven’t seen Tua in NFL action but on two throws against the Jets in a prevent defense. My gut says the Tua debut prediction: https://youtu.be/lSPNQ82Sq4E

 -- You know who looks really good, spry, and nicely targeted at WR? Breshad Perriman (4-62-0/8). You know…the Jets’ #1 WR?

Flacco was going after it with him, but it’s Joe Flacco…he missed an open Perriman on two 30+ yards throws, one an easy TD. I don’t know how high Perriman can go with Sam Darnold but considering they will be down a lot and throwing…Perriman might be a super-solid WR2-3 on volume ahead.

Perriman was dominant with Tampa Bay late last year, which got him a big deal with NYJ…he’s just now getting fully healthy. He looks really good/healthy/quick. He is looking and moving like a ‘#1’ for them…but the ‘them’ is a drag on his upside.

 -- Speaking of spry WRs… I was watching Preston Williams (2-18-1/2) on some isolated tape…just to watch his feet again, to see if he’s ready if Tua is good for his business. But also knowing that PW is off ACL surgery, so I was re-checking that his so-so 2020 isn’t because he’s lost some ‘it’.

I still see the nice cutting ability and good speed on tape. It may not be as amazing as it was last year, but it’s still pretty good or pretty close to what I expect to see. He’s ready for Tua, but I don’t know if Tua is ready to push it to PW. Preston might be more athletically gifted, but not becoming more of a technician to go with it. Athletes like, better than Preston are flooding into the NFL. In 2019, he was a bit rare…in 2020…he’s another good prospect in a suspect offense.

There’s hope, and fear with a move to Tua for Preston.

 -- Mike Gesicki (0-0-0/2) might not miss Ryan Fitz. You never know what the Gesicki output was going to be under Fitz. His last 4 games, Gesicki has: 1-1-5-0 for catch counts in a game.

At the same time, Adam Shaheen (3-51-1/3) is suddenly making waves. He scored a TD in this game, and almost had a 40+ yard score added but he was tackled a yard short. He’s still playing 20-30% of the snaps, not a feature role at all.

Miami is rotating Gesicki, Durham Smythe, and now Shaheen all game…and Shaheen is getting more and more time in the red zone because of his size. I’m not sure who Tua would prefer, he’s had more time with Shaheen in practice/camp probably.

 -- The best-looking RB on the Jets roster…looks like newly signed Ty Johnson (3-42-0, 0-0-0/1) to me and it isn’t even debatable.

He entered this game midway and brought a spark not seen in two years for NYJ. He hit an 8-yard run on his inaugural carry, then blasted off with a 34 yarder the next carry. Of course, that was too much success for the Jets to handle so he was immediately brought to the sidelines and not seen touching the ball for a while.

Doesn’t Ty know the plan is to go (0-16)? We can’t be having successful plays, come on man.

If the Jets really are interested in playing and player development…we’re going to see more Ty Johnson ahead. A nice deep sleeper to sit on in deep roster FF leagues. The risk being the Jets are idiots…just ask Josh Adams.

 -- Miami-DST pitching a shutout…been planning for this hope/matchup for weeks. Many of you were able to get in on it. I gotta admit…it felt good to watch a plan come to fruition. But now what?

Well, you will not confidently use the Miami-DST again until Weeks 11-12-13 for at DEN, at NYJ, CIN.

It’s a good pairing with KC, so maybe you think about holding them until then. If you have to, you could drop Miami in a regular 10-12 team league with regular roster sizes and try and re-pick back up again next week or two…maybe.

People are hoarding DSTs, so be careful. And Miami has a really good defense…that’s why I loved this hold/play. They may be OK Week 8 v. LAR. They might be OK Week 9 at ARI. Maybe OK v. LAC’s rough O-Line Week 10, but I don’t wanna face Herbert.

Just know that Miami has a really good defense. Tua may actually help it because he won’t be so radical bombing all the time and with the subsequent turnovers. Perhaps, Tua helps this DST with ball control, time of possession. Maybe.

Snap Counts of Interest:

39 = Gaskin

16 = Breida

06 = Laird

05 = Bowden

63 = Perriman

63 = Crowder

60 = J Smith

Kardelen Duyan

FFM

24 October 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 6: Game Analysis: Falcons 40, Vikings 23

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

I mean… The Falcons just went all (6-2) in the 2nd-half of 2019 Atlanta Falcons and opened up a can of whoop ass on the Vikings. This was a beatdown and a display of good, sometimes great, energized football. NFL teams firing their head coach early season 2020…now undefeated (2-0) in their next game (HOU and ATL).

It makes you think back to all that ‘the Falcons should’ve beaten Dallas and Chicago’ thoughts from Weeks 2-3…and this makes you wonder if the Falcons really are a solid (8-8) team that just needed a jolt. That jolt hit in this game – they destroyed Minnesota. It was 23-0 at one point, and 33-7 with 4 minutes left before Minnesota threw some garbage TDs at them.

The Falcons have three winnable games ahead (DET, at CAR, DEN)…if they can run the table, they would be (4-5) with 4 games left in division vs. TB and NO coming up. I’m not saying they will pull off a ‘run’ – I’m just saying there is suddenly a ray of hope. Enough of a ray that they can hold off on trading Julio Jones, etc., for a moment to see if they can sweep their next three and change the trajectory of the season.

Minnesota has no such luck. They needed a win here to prove they were still in it. Instead, they got humiliated and then traded Yannick Ngakoue and declared Danielle Hunter out for the year, effectively ‘folding’ on the season.

I wonder what Mike Zimmer will do now for the rest of the season now that they’ve ‘folded’? Will he run the ball less? Will he split more carries/take a burden off of Dalvin Cook with a 2021 mindset? The Vikings are about to become what we think of the Falcons – all passing in garbage time and a sieve defense to keep the garbage time going. It works for FF…for their WRs, QB and TE.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Because of the flow of where the Vikings are going, where they have been – deficits and a lot of passing needs, some of it garbage time – Justin Jefferson (9-166-2/11) is in a perfect spot to be a shock PPR WR1 this season, as a rookie. He’s been there for weeks – he’s the #1 WR in FF in PPR PPG since Week 3. Nothing is likely to stop him except maybe Week 10 at CHI and Week 14 at Tampa Bay, with their coverage guys/pass defenses.

He’s already a star. I’m shocked these guys, these rookie WR prospects are walking into the league and dominating within weeks. Not because of talent, but because there’s usually a harness put on them by the coach and/or QB. Not in anymore. Plus, the new breed WRs are just better than the old ones.

FYI…Jefferson is the #1 PPR WR in PPG since Week 3. You know who he is just ahead of? Travis Fulgham and Chase Claypool. You thought COVID made 2020 weird…

 -- One of the potential FF-beneficiaries of the Minnesota ‘situation’ is Irv Smith (4-55-0/5)…another 4 catch game after barely being targeted Weeks 1-4.

Three things here:

1) 4.0 rec. (5.0 targets), 59.5 yards, 0.0 TDs per game the past two games. That’s a top 18 TE production based on current PPR PPG for fantasy at TE…not far from #12/TE1

2) I didn’t see any real plan or desire to make Smith go, as a weapon, etc., in this game. He’s just a good guy to have on the field who gets throws his way. He’s faster than average at TE, has good hands…he works fine…like most every TE out there.

3) The Vikings are dumping 2020, so Kyle Rudolph is going to get traded…and that opens up more space for Smith to work. I suspect Smith to be a back-end TE1 in PPR when Rudolph is totally out of the way.

4) Kyle Rudolph could be semi-FF interesting depending upon where he lands. Look for the Buffalo Bills, New England Patriots, Miami Dolphins, Baltimore Ravens, and Kansas City to all be interested in aiding their playoff run.

 -- Alexander Mattison (10-26-0, 1-4-0/2) got wrecked in his big starting debut. You know why? In part because the Falcons have a top 5 run defense (least yards per game allowed), #11 in lowest yards per carry allowed, top 10 in least rushing TDs per game allowed.

 -- What’s happened to Kirk Cousins (24-36 for 343 yards, 3 TDs/3 INTs) this year? He looks the same to me…solid, but occasionally makes head scratching throws.

Perhaps the answer lies here…

2018 = he was hit 39 times in 16 games (2.4 per game)

2019 = he was hit 30 times in 15 games (2.0 per game)

2020 = he has been hit 18 times in 6 games (3.0 per game)

He’s throwing in muddier pockets than usual, and Atlanta dared Alexander Mattison to beat them/dropped linebackers into coverage a lot this game…which seemed to confuse Cousins for some reason.

 -- Matt Ryan (30-40 for 371 yards, 4 TDs/0 INTs) had no such issues this game. The three prior games, Ryan tallied 1 TD/2 INTs total…then pops off for 4 TDs here.

Is Ryan fixed…or is it the Vikings’ pass defense? I think it might be more the Vikings defense…and thus Minnesota decided to fold on the season.

Depending upon the pass defense metric, the Vikings are either #2 or #3 worst in the league in it. My internal numbers have Minnesota as the 2nd-best pass defense your FF assets want to face. Seattle the worst/best to face. I’m betting Minny will sink to #1 best to face soon.

 -- Hayden Hurst (4-57-1/4) is starting to break through some for the Falcons. 3 TDs in his last 5 games. The results are high and low week-to-week but it’s starting to average up well. He’s one of the stronger TE1 hopeful’s week-to-week now.

 -- Because the Vikings are ‘folding’ they are going to get thrown on a lot with their all young cornerback group…which means they’re all going to put up IDP numbers potentially.

Rookie CB Cameron Dantzler (11 tackles, 2 TFLs) looks terrible at CB so far…one of the worst in the league, but he’s had at least 4 tackles every game he’s played, averaging over 6+ total tackles a game which is strong for a CB.

Rookie CB Jeff Gladney (8 tackles) have averaged 5.4 tackles per game since becoming a starter.

Snap Counts of Interest:

44 = Irv Smith

38 = Rudolph

27 = Mattison

16 = Abdullah

05 = Boone

46 = Gurley

21 = Br Hill

11 = Ito

R.C. Fischer

FFM

23 October 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 6: Game Analysis: Colts 31, Bengals 27

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

The Bengals raced out to a 21-0 lead in this game, scoring on the first play of the 2nd-quarter to go up three scores and leaving the Colts (and football society) stunned…and I felt great about my CIN +7.5 bet for this game. By halftime it was 24-21 Cincy, and I knew my bet was in trouble…and as the Colts took the lead in the 4th-quarter, I just prayed for the cover (and got it).

Zac Taylor should be fired for losing this game. Actually, the NFL should step and take this team away from the owners and give it to someone who knows what they are doing. This was one part, Zac Taylor is over his head -- and one part this roster is mostly a disaster outside of Joe Burrow.

This game revealed a lot of ‘truths’ for me…more than I expected, and we’ll get to player truths in a moment. But as far as the teams overall, we all already knew the Bengals stink. But here’s a truth not many would agree with – the Colts borderline stink too. A terrible (4-2) team.

The Colts have beaten (1-5) MIN, (0-6) NYJ, and (1-4-1) CIN. They also looked fairly flimsy in defeating (5-1) CHI Week 4. They’ve lost to (1-5) JAX and got manhandled by the Browns Week 5. The Jacksonville loss Week 1 was not a fluke…it was sign.

Now, the Colts aren’t Bengals bad. They just aren’t ‘win the division’ good. I don’t even know if they’ll make the playoffs without a QB change…and the QB may not even matter. If the Colts lose at DET Week 8 (Indy on bye this week) – they aren’t making the playoffs.

If Indy beats Detroit at Detroit Week 8, and that’s not a given, then we project them to go (8-8) this season with a chance at 9 wins. It’s very possible Indy is about to lose 4-6 games in-a-row from Weeks 9-14. If the Colts lose to Detroit Week 8, they the next 3 weeks after they will then lose to Baltimore and at Tennessee and then maybe to Green Bay and fall to (4-6) and has to make a QB change for Week 12 hosting TEN to save the season. From Weeks 9-16, the Colts play all playoff teams (TEN 2x, GB, LV, PIT, BAL) and Houston twice.

Here’s what is crazy about the Bengals…they are now (1-4-1), if they would have won their OT game tie with Philly Week 3, they’d be (2-3) right now. Had they not butchered this big lead/game against the Colts, at Indy, after a 21-0 lead…with the Philly hypothetical win, they could be (3-2) right now. Had they closed out the Chargers Week 1, instead of botching it…maybe (4-2) in range?

They’re too poorly coaches to have won all those games but consider that Cincy has been in and/or leading most of their games this season (except Week 5 v. CIN). This team is not terrible. I’ll take the points v. CLE this week, if CB Will Jackson is active/playing.

Cincy has three games upcoming with NFC East teams, so they might get 3-4 wins this season in the end. If the Bengals were in the NFC East, they’d be the favorite to win the division right now.

Let’s get to some interesting and/or shocking truths from this game...

Fantasy Player Notes:

 -- This may be known as the game T.Y. Hilton’s (1-11-0/5) career ended…ended as in ‘no longer a star’ and barely a starting NFL WR anymore). I don’t know or care what his official ‘drop’ count is this year (because the NFL numbers/whomever is in charge of it – they’re a joke)…but it’s shocking to watch how many passes TYH butchers now. Even simple ones. At first, I thought it was just a fluke…now, it’s ‘the norm’. I don’t know what is wrong -- secret injury, Rivers, age catching up…but it is what it is. He’s becoming borderline useless for the NFL, much less for fantasy.

That’s not totally shocking news. Here’s what is shocking news…

Early in the game, as the Colts faltered and tried to get back into it, Rivers went to Hilton like you would expect…but to no avail. Drops, him not open, etc. I could feel, on the re-watch, that Rivers just gave up on Hilton…and thus the rise of all the other Colts options. It’s the third/fourth time I’ve seen Rivers just stop trying with TYH.

Hilton saw three of his 5 targets while they were getting down 21-0. Hilton got all five targets in the 1st-half. He was not targeted in the 2nd-half. It wasn’t because of some awesome coverage. The Colts outscored the hapless Bengals 31-6 from the 2nd-quarter on (after it was 21-0)…it was a great offensive burst and T.Y. Hilton was not a part of it on purpose -- frozen out in the 2nd-half. I think because Rivers is sick of him and is finding prosperity everywhere else.

The death of T.Y. Hilton (and Pittman/Campbell hurt) is bringing on the shock WR statement: I think Marcus Johnson (5-108-0/8) might be the Colts/Rivers’s new #1 WR. A possible Midwest version of the Travis Fulgham story happening – out of attrition, a WR rises. The 100+ yard game here, might not be a total fluke/freak event.

Down 21-0, Marcus Johnson connected with Rivers on a 55-yard bomb and Johnson was tackled at the 1-yard line...setting up a Colts easy TD right after and the comeback underway. Later in the game, Johnson was wide open on a 60+ yard bomb, 2-3 yards ahead of coverage, and Rivers overthrew it. We nearly had a 6-165-2/8 game that would have sent everyone diving to the waiver wires to make claims, even with a Colts bye week.

Johnson is an unusual story in the NFL, one of the most odd that I’ve ever seen…

-A nothing career at Texas…a bit player/producer at WR.

-Runs a 4.39 40-time at his Pro Day, along with a 37” vertical, a high-end 11’3” broad jump and 22 bench reps from a 6’1”/204 WR is pretty antique/sweet. Overall, high-end speed/power numbers (especially for his size). A 7.26 three-cone was below average for what you want to see.

-Goes undrafted in 2016. Signed by the Eagles for a tryout.

-Impressed the Eagles, and me, in his rookie preseason…enough so to put him on the practice squad for 2016.

-2017, got called up to the Eagles’ main roster and saw some playing time.

-Impressed Seattle enough to include him in a deal in 2018 to trade away Michael Bennett, exchanging picks but also Seattle wanted to add Marcus Johnson from Philly…and they got him.

-Johnson got hurt in 2018, and Seattle gave up…but Indy grabbed him and put him on their practice squad. Why Indy? Frank Reich knew him from the time in Philly 2016-2017.

-Johnson got called up to the main roster in 2019. He started a few games. He had a 3-105-1/7 game Week 14. He had a few moments but was a stuck in the Colts passing game decline late 2019.

-Back to the practice squad again for Johnson in 2020 but called up with the Parris/Pittman injuries and the past two weeks he has averaged 4.0 rec. (5.5 targets), 81.5 yards, 0.0 TDs per game.

It’s not that Johnson has received a fortuitous spike in targets that has my interest piqued…it’s a combination of things.

(a) Johnson has talent, he is above average in athleticism and seems unfazed catching the ball at the NFL level. He looks like he’s been a starter all his life. It’s been a five-year grind.  

(b) Watching Travis Fulgham go from nothing to reliable/#1 WR for a team…because of mass injury opening the door for him. Johnson is in that same boat, kinda.

(c) As Hilton dies…opportunity rises.

(d) the most important…you could see the relationship happening with Rivers-Johnson a bit Week 5, but then full scale here Week 6.

I don’t know if it’s (Rivers-Johnson) going to hold up because I don’t know if Rivers can hold up, but I know this…something is happening with Hilton-Rivers-Johnson, and it’s good for Johnson and in deeper roster leagues…I’m taking a look because I denied Fulgham in disbelief that guys like that get a real, sustainable chance. Johnson could be the next in line to benefit from his situation.

 -- Speaking of WRs I’ve slept on…Tee Higgins (6-125-0/8) really looks good. I did not see that coming. I thought for sure Tyler Boyd (5-54-0/8) would be the money and Higgins a bit player. But for two weeks now, I’ve been pushing this ‘Higgins is Burrow’s guy’ theory. That theory didn’t get derailed here.

I don’t know that Tee Higgins is a star talent, but like Fulgham-Johnson…it’s working. There’s a connection happening. No reason to deny it.

I could have been way off on my Higgins scouting, but I don’t think I’m that far off – just that he is better than I scouted and he’s in a great spot where he’s growing with Burrow as Boyd-Green take the better coverage. A perfect storm scenario.

 -- Also, note…to all of you dismissing/giving up on Joe Burrow (25-39 for 313 yards, 0 TDs/1 INT) because he has 1 TD/3 INTs the past three weeks – you’re wrong to do so.

You don’t want Burrow FF-playing for you in a bad matchup…like the Ravens game Week 5. Like the Steelers game coming Week 10. But in any decent matchup…he’s safe with upside.

Note a few things on Burrow…

1) He had at least two passing TDs here in this game, a couple falling just short of the goal line. Just an unlucky outcome. Not poor play.

2) He has thrown for 300+ yards in four of his last 5 games. Only the Ravens game was a down yards game (183 yards).

3) The Bengals possibly being (2-3) or (3-2) or even (4-1) was on the table, but Cincy has a terrible O-Line and no defense and poor coaching…the only reason why the Bengals are formidable is because of Burrow putting them on his back.

The numbers Burrow is producing right away, with this team…they are stunning. He has arguably the worst O-Line in the NFL, he’s taking the most hits, and still completing 65% of his passes. Still throwing for 300+ yards. Still keeping his team in games to win them. I’m totally impressed.

4) Joe Burrow is a modern-day Joe Montana…only instead of having the most innovative coach of his era and the best run organization to work with, he has the total opposite of that.

I keep talking about Justin Herbert and we all see ‘it’…because of his size, arm, etc. But Burrow just doesn’t look like that, so he gets perceived differently…but he is…he’s differently great like Herbert. You can argue which one is better, but it shouldn’t mean Burrow isn’t also elite. He is. Buy him on sale for Dynasty, if he is.

If Cincy hires Joe Brady to be their head coach in 2021…Burrow’s stock will go through the roof.

 -- Trey Burton (4-58-1, 1-1-1) is not impressing me, but I cannot deny his touch counts. He just doesn’t look like his old self…he’s playing stiff but catching his targets. He’s useful for FF until he isn’t. But I don’t see the upside here, unless he has rust getting knocked off and gets better as he goes. With Jack Doyle (3-29-1/5) there and Mo Alie-Cox set to return soon…I just don’t love the setup…but it’s working now for FF on a small scale.

 -- Drew Sample (0-0-0/1) is not working.

Since his great 4th-quarter in Week 2, on national TV…he has averaged 1.5 rec. (2.3 targets), 17.5 yards, and 0.0 TDs per game. Joe Burrow loves tight ends, but not Sample…apparently.

 -- Another inconvenient truth…the Colts-DST is droppable. You’re holding on to them, but you’re more likely to regret it than not.

The Colts defense got pushed around by the Browns and then boat raced here by Cincy early on. Those are offenses the Colts D should’ve pounced on, even without Darrius Leonard. We’re giving the Colts-DST too much credit for crushing the Jets and Vikings and holding down the Bears. That’s not a great resume.

The Colts-DST is #2 in all of FF in PPG…how can you cut that?

If you ignore the Jets game, they would be 8th in FF PPG…down with CLE, GB.

If the Colts play the Jets – definitely start them. The problem is the schedule ahead…

You’re holding them through a BYE to what…play them at Detroit? That might be OK, but it’s not super-juicy…and then what? Lamar-Tannehill-Rodgers-Tannehill-Watson-Carr-Watson-Ben through to Week 16. You’re going to start them confidently versus any of those teams/QBs? I don’t think so. You’re better off taking any NFC East DST facing an NFC East offense.

You’re holding onto a good/OK-not-great DST…you’re holding on to a semi-myth driven by the Jets game Week 3 (two pick sixes among other things…nearly half their seasons FF scoring happened in that one game).

Snap Counts of Interest:

59 = Hilton

58 = Pascal

40 = M. Johnson

39 = Doyle

35 = Burton

37 = J Taylor

21 = Hines

04 = Wilkins

59 = Higgins

58 = AJG

57 = Boyd

01 = Ross

55 = Sample

23 = C Carter

R.C. Fischer

FFM

23 October 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 6: Game Analysis: Bears 23, Panthers 16

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

The Panthers went toe-to-toe with the Bears here. Both teams are not overflowing with talent, but they play hard and with energy. This game could’ve gone either way, and I would say Carolina felt like the better team, but it was close…but in the end Chicago got 3-to-1 turnovers, got 4 sacks to Carolina’s none, and Chicago converted 50% of their 3rd-downs – and that’s a winning number most weeks. Chicago earned their win, for sure. I just felt like Carolina with a little less bad luck on the turnovers (like a tipped pass turned diving miracle catch INT type things) might have won this game. The Panthers were knocking on the door of TDs early and settling for field goals and it caught up to them in the end.

Two ‘good’ teams, not great teams…not Super Bowl threats, maybe not ever making the playoffs – but you don’t want to play either of these teams.

Carolina is now (3-3), and in the playoff hunt…but their schedule ahead is a gauntlet. NO, KC, TB, GB loom ahead through Week 15. IF Carolina can beat the Saints at New Orleans Week 7…it would be a statement game and a moment where we might start taking the Panthers as a wild card seriously. As it stands, it’s a tall order for a young team with a rookie head coach. We project them 7-8 wins at best.

The Bears keep rolling along, now (5-1)…lucky not to be (1-5), but luck is a good thing. It may not be luck if they keep pulling these tight games out/holding on to wins. The Bears could really make a statement with a win at L.A. versus the Rams Week 7. The schedule ahead gets tough for a few weeks then eases up to the finish. We project them to 9-10 wins, but more bias towards the 8-9 win range. If they beat the Rams this week, then the Bears are all but assured of getting a wild card in the end and are then squarely in the NFC North title discussion because they are built to beat the Packers…and the Bears have Nick Foles, so anything is possible.

Fantasy Player Notes…

Not much fresh to talk about here. No amazing revelations. I will hit on some topics of interest though…

 -- Robby Anderson (4-77-0/5) really looks good in this offense working with Teddy. Robby had an OK enough game but credit the Bears for their defense against him. D.J. Moore (5-93-0/11) having more targets/a bigger game…it’s more a function of focus, by a good defense, on Robby.

But to a greater FF point…anytime Moore outdoes Robby, there is a wing of fantasy people who are clutching to a D.J. Moore dream that thinks it means DJM is the NOW the #1 WR for Carolina, or more that he always has been. You want to buy Robby Anderson off them if they fear that…or you want to sell them D.J. Moore for a lot.

Nothing wrong with Moore, but he’s a 2nd-fiddle here, a good 2nd-fiddle…it’s Robby that will lead the way for FF with them this year, as he has been.

 -- Darnell Mooney (3-36-0/5) is a really good-looking, young WR prospect. I don’t know if he’ll become a superstar but he could be a Diontae Johnson-lite or a Calvin Ridley-like thin/wiry, athletic, great feet, great hands (Mooney has better hands than most WRs in the 2020 NFL Draft)…he runs a 4.38. He’s got a lot going for him. He’s already starting in the NFL. He’s good.

What’s not great for him is this Bears/Matt Nagy passing game that’s just as stiff/dull as it was under Mitch Trubisky, but Foles is a better ‘money’ QB. Foles is smart…he’s going to work Allen Robinson (5-53-0/9) because he should. Mooney is a 2nd-fiddle, but one of these games coming up Mooney is going to hit a homerun ball and get himself on the map – but don’t let the 4.38 speed be the story when he has his catch and run big play – he’s an all-around WR, not just a one-note WR.

 -- Cole Kmet (2-20-1/2) scored a TD. Nothing to see here. A rookie playing 30%+ of the snaps in games behind Jimmy Graham (5-34-0/8), nothing more…nothing less. He’s a very average TE talent. In a few years in a progressive offense, he might be something…but in Chicago with Nagy he’ll be a solid-ish but forgettable TE.

 -- Mike Davis (18-52-1, 2-3-0/3) is going to play this week. No fears of injury keeping him out. I’m sure he’s banged up so it’s for the best they rest Davis as much as they can between games. If Curtis Samuel (DNP) was healthy you’d see him play a lot more snaps to help relieve Davis some. Samuel is iffy for this week. Davis should be fine/heavy workload.

Trenton Cannon (3-12-0, 2-15-0/2) is nothing interesting. I’m surprised he’s still in the NFL.

Note: Carolina signed UDFA rookie Mike Warren from the Eagles…he’d be a name down the road if CMC can’t come back and if Davis and Samuel are banged up. Rodney Smith is a UDFA practice squad RB the Panthers keep inviting back as well.

CMC should be back in the Week 9-10 range, so you got a few more weeks with Davis. I get a lot of emails/questions about FF-selling off Davis (if they don’t own CMC) before CMC comes back in, and I get that.

I’m open to any deal but if you can’t make a good deal, just use Mike D. for what he was a worth, a temporary savior. Be glad for the good times. Don’t be so into being crafty at selling at just the right time…that you sell him off short and regret it because you were trying to be too slick. Sometimes you get a free ride, you take it, and then it ends…and you’re blessed that it happened. Don’t be afraid to trade him but don’t make the desire for a slick timing/trade be the driver of your emotions. Get a great value if you can, but sometimes you just sop up the remaining gravy on the plate with your biscuit and be left with an empty plate when CMC returns, but having had a satisfying meal for several weeks.

Who knows when CMC is coming back, or if he’s more hurt than any of us knows…or if CMC returns and reaggravates and here we go again?

 -- CAR DE Brian Burns (3 tackles, 3 QB hits) is getting to the QB more and more…but little sacks to show for it. These trends tend to foretell sacks to come. Six QB hits his past three games but just 1.0 sacks. He may start to rack them up soon at the pressure pace he’s going at lately.

 -- The Bears-DST is looking good, but this is nowhere near the 2018 dominating Bears-DST. It’s just very good but susceptible to good offenses…and they haven’t really played any killer offenses. They scuffled with Atlanta and Detroit and handled Tampa Bay OK. The schedule for the next several weeks is filled with tougher offenses/better QBs.

I want to see how they handle the Rams (or not) to then think about whether to keep them for the NO-TEN-MIN-BYE-GB stretch Weeks 8-12. I don’t think there’s a lot of FF points there.

Snap Counts of Interest:

58 = ARob

44 = Mooney

44 = A Miller

13 = Wims

45 = J Graham

23 = Kmet

R.C. Fischer

FFM

23 October 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 6: Game Analysis: Bucs 38, Packers 10

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

Was this that the Buccaneers are so good…and the Packers are frauds?

Was this just a lucky/blip game by Tampa Bay…and an unlucky blip by Green Bay?

A week+ ago, the Bucs scuffled and lost to the Bears and no one thought them to be killers…now, this week, they’re headed to the Super Bowl. That’s football fan life.

The Packers were going to be the #1 seed, now people are wondering if GB will be a wild card behind the Bears winning the NFC North.  

I think  the story is… The Buccaneers have a pretty salty defense, as we’ve been saying all season. Now, everyone agrees/sees. When you have a physical, daunting defense…you’re a bad matchup for finesse teams. The Packers are a finesse team…they are S-A-W-F-T. That’s why the 49ers kept embarrassing them last year. And why the Chargers whooped them last season out of nowhere. The Packers didn’t beat an out-of-division playoff team in the regular season last season except KC, and that was barely beating the Mahomes-less/Matt Moore Chiefs late game comeback. The Bucs are better built for NFL success as we go…Green Bay has the better QB vs. Tampa, but lesser everything else.  

The Packers are going to be hard-pressed to cruise to the NFC North title…because the Bears are not super talented, but they have grit. They are not S-A-W-F-T. They might punch the Pack in the mouth Week 12 on a Sunday night in their first of 2 matchups. It’s still a 10-11 win Packers team. A good team, not a great team. Likely the NFC North champs, but not assured.

Tampa Bay is the class of the NFC South. The Saints peaked a year or two ago and are slowly gliding downward. The Panthers are a year away from doing battle with TB for king of the NFC South, which will be Carolina by 2022…for a long run of dominance under Matt Rhule. The Bucs will win 10-11 games this year, and this TB win may come back to haunt Green Bay – if the Packers could force the Bucs to go to Wisconsin in January, huge advantage…and the opposite is true if they have to go to warmer Tampa. Tom Brady is not great in the cold, been that way for a few years.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Why isn’t Gronk (5-78-1/8) a TE1 from here on in?

#1) The bar to be a TE1 these days, after the top 3-4 guys…it isn’t very high. So most warm bodies can be TE1s.

#2) He’s playing 80%+ of the snaps in games…he’s out there/available for stats. He’s not rotating/playing 60% of snaps in games. He’s the best blocker and top target TE.

#3) Once O.J. Howard left things started perking up even heavier on snaps and targets. And the Bruce Arians offense that eschews the TE…it’s not Arians’ offense anymore…to no one’s surprise.

Gronk’s last 4 weeks: 3.8 rec., 51.7 yards, 0.25 TDs per game…6.7 FF PPG/10.5 PPR PPG. The #9 TE in FF since Week 3.

#4) This is the X-factor… Tom Brady is looking for him A LOT the last few weeks and it’s growing as we go…because Gronk is getting more in shape/knocking off the rust as we go (he looked terrible Weeks 1-2). When Brady drops back, if Gronk’s on a route (not blocking), I think Brady prefers him to Mike Evans, which is ludicrous but true.

Since Week 3:

15 catches, 24 targets, 207 yards, 1 TD = Gronk

15 catches, 23 targets, 175 yards, 4 TDs = Evans

With each passing week, Brady’s BFF’s numbers trend higher…as Evans sinks lower. The past two games, Evans has 3.0 rec., 25.5 yards, and 0.50 TDs per game.

Evan Engram can be as physically talented a TE as there is…but you want the TE whose QB is in love with him, and Gronk + Brady is definitely ‘sittin’ in a tree’.

 -- Speaking of evolving TEs…Robert Tonyan (3-25-0/4) is starting to make more sense to me. The 3 TD game against Atlanta got everyone’s attention but, hell, Tyler Higbee had a 3 TD game Week 2 and it meant nothing after for increased usage.

I saw a continuation of Rodgers seeking, trusting Tonyan here. The Falcons game was a joke/a party/not necessarily reality, per se. But within this blowout, early on…I saw some of the Rodgers-Tonyan connection when it mattered, in a grind/against a tough defense, just in little simple passing plays – all of which helps confirm their growing relationship.

I was a Tonyan believer, in his sleeper talent, for 2+ years…fighting everyone about Jace Sternberger being lesser than Tonyan. I wasn’t a Tonyan-Rodgers connection believer after the 3 TD game, but now I am. Late to the party, but at the party. And because he’s still not really ‘believed in’ nationally, because there are so many Dalton Schultz, Drew Sample, Mo Alie-Cox type TEs that pop up for a moment and then disappear soon after (even if good players, the targets/action isn’t there)…Tonyan feels like one of them. He might be, but I’m starting to think he’s got a brighter future than all the others like him.

The good news…he’s fairly available in a deal. No one strongly thinks they have their TE1 for the ROS in most cases. He had a weak FF-game Week 6 to help foster doubts…but note he sprained his ankle early on, played through it some, then the game was a blowout and no need for him to push it. A down game causes fear that ‘he’s not real’.

Also, helping…he’ll be no practice or limited practice and questionable all week – but I think he’ll sit out all week to heal his ankle. I saw the sprain; he’ll need 4-5 days off it to get as fully ready as he can for Sunday. His ‘questionable’ label + not really practicing so far this week + forgetting the 3 TD game from eons ago creates more ‘doubts’. This week is your chance to strike if you believe.

 -- A rather odd pattern to the Packers RB rotation, and one we’ve seen before…

I saw a lot of Jamaal Williams (4-34-0, 0-0-0/1) in the backfield early; it felt like…not getting big touches, but in for a lot of snaps. You’d think we’d see more Aaron Jones (10-15-1, 3-26-0/5) in a trouble game like this. It was likely more that the game was getting away and GB needed to pass and they like Jamaal protecting Rodgers better in known passing spots.

But to add to the furrowed brow…A.J. Dillon (5-31-0) has barely played this year, mostly taking final drive garbage/run out the clock touches. In this game, he was in the game taking carries early…looking like a chance to try and get the run game going with a more physical back. He looked good too. But it was only a blip and then he was the garbage man at the very end with the backup offense.

I think A.J. Dillon moved a step closer to starting to make Aaron Jones owners nervous. Still many more steps to go before it’s a real fear -- but Dillon is slowly popping up more and more and could be soon casting a shadow on just taking 5-10% of the touches in key parts of games.

 -- Davante Adams (6-61-0/10) was back from his injury. He looked fine. Just CB Carlton Davis (6 tackles, 4 PDs) is a top cover corner now, as we were discussing this preseason…now everyone ‘knows it’.

 -- Mike Evans (1-10-0/2) is the stud WR with issues from this game. His issue is one man too, but it’s not a cover corner…it’s Tom Brady. They have yet to look in sync and Brady prefers Gronk. If Evans wasn’t getting a bunch of 1-yard TDs he’d be the most depressing fantasy WR play of 2020.

Not sure I see the upside ahead either. It’s a Brady thing.

Chris Godwin (5-48-0/7) may suffer from the same affliction. Keelan Cole and Travis Fulgham are going to outscore Godwin for FF in 2020 on a per game basis – can you even mentally digest that? It doesn’t even seem possible. It’s a Brady thing, change has come. Jameis Winston is not walking through that door.

 -- Ronald Jones (23-112-2, 2-8-0/2)…did I not say that he was looking great after Week 1? That he was the better of the two Tampa backs? Now, that’s not even a question.

The questions have gone from “Jones or Fournette” to “Should I drop Fournette?” Leonard’s value is only as the handcuff if RoJo goes down. Fournette will get some pity work, so as not to offend him…but this is RoJo’s backfield right now. Clearly the better back in the year 2020.

RB things change like the wind, so Fournette is not totally dead…but is making funeral arrangements for his FF 2020.

 -- Equanimeous St. Brown (0-0-0/2) got active and they tried to get him integrated but he was miscommunicating with Rodgers on their couple of throws. No advancement of the ESB cause here.

 -- You know who looked good at ILB, which is a kiss of death when I like a lowly UDFA ILB, usually…Krys Barnes (10 tackles, 0.5 TFLs). I’ve been pointing him out since Week 1…just the odd pattern of his playing time (in a good way) and the tackle counts he was getting in limited time.

Barnes played 88% of the snaps here, was the starter…and looked darn good. Looked like the new starting ILB for GB, not Ty Summers. Barnes impressed me on tape here. I’m buying in that he’s going to rise from here, but not a stone cold lock.

Snap Counts of Interest:

36 = A Jones

32 = Jam Williams

10 = Dillon

54 = Gronk

23 = Brate

36 = RoJo

19 = McCoy

10 = K Vaughn

R.C. Fischer

FFM

22 October 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 6: Game Analysis: Broncos 18, Patriots 12

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

I think the spread for this game started at -10.0 before the COVID stuff reemerged and it ended up -7.0 for the Pats, and that was off by only 13 points of margin. There was a big expectation for the Patriots to smoke Denver here. Why? We still think of New England like it’s 2-15 years ago, in a sense…and everyone thinks the Broncos stink.

The Broncos aren’t bad. They have their issues, but they’re well coached and usually fighting all comers down to the wire. Denver is a last wild card spot kinda ‘good’ team.

So, if the Broncos are an OK team…then Denver going to New England and handling them might mean the Patriots are no longer that good. They are about as good as the Broncos on any given day…fringe wild card, an (8-8) team. The Cam experiment isn’t really working. Belichick’s legacy is about to be questioned. There is some peril in New England, right around the corner…especially the better and better the Buccaneers look.

The Patriots’ season likely comes down to Week 8 at Buffalo, a game I think they will get rocked in. If NE beats SF this week (a big IF), then loses to the Bills, then beats NYJ, then loses to BAL Week 10…they will be (4-5), potentially 2-3 games out of first place…and the season slipping away from them. We see the Pats finishing with 6-7 wins tops and making a QB change after a Week 10 loss to Baltimore.

Denver is (2-3)…they should be (3-2). They’ve lost to division winning/top NFL teams and beaten NYJ and NE on the road their last two games. Their schedule ahead/division is so tough it likely keeps them out of the playoff picture. Until Drew Lock is gone, this team is held back on its own. We see 5-6 wins this season, that low only because all they play is playoff-level/quality teams for most of the rest of the season.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- The first thing to know about this game…the sudden rise of rookie Albert Okwuegbunam (2-45-0/6). The former college teammate of Drew Lock shined in his ‘debut’ of sorts. Lock went at him with targets, early and often.

Albert O. caught two of six targets, for a decent/muted FF week…but it’s what the other four targets were that changes the thinking.

First off, realize that Lock was going at Albert right away. Not in a hurry up, not because nothing else was there…Albert ran specific/nice routes you design for a speedy TE and Lock went after it – which was brilliant of the coaching staff to try to catch the Pats off guard, because Albert O. has barely played this season.

The first missed target (1st series)…27-yard wheel route bomb to the end zone that was underthrown/knocked away by the defender.

The second missed target, 2nd series, another 27-yard bomb that was well covered and knocked away.

The third missed target, 3rd series, after two 10-15+ yard passes to AO, a 7-yard high point throw in the back of the end zone to a well-covered AO on a ball put where only Okwuegbunam could catch it but he leaped up and got his fingertips/hands on it but he couldn’t get two hands on it.

The fourth missed target, late 3rd-quarter, a timing pass to the sideline in the end zone from 6 yards out… Okwuegbunam makes the nice high point/leaping tight window catch…but while falling down, the defender swung his hand right onto the ball and perfectly knocked it out, and as Okwuegbunam crashed to the ground the ball was stripped out. No catch/TD.

Some fantasy sites mocked Okwuegbunam for butchering two catches and labeling him as ‘can’t catch’.

1) They were tough catches/not drops at all. Not even close.

2) The key is…the two almost-catches and the two uncatchables…all TD shots. You might be starting TEs for fantasy this week that haven’t had four end zone shots this season total. Okwuegbunam got 4 shots in his first three quarters of real NFL action.

If Noah Fant is out…I’m hot for Okwuegbunam as a sleeper this week.

It will be cold and snowing…making Okwuegbunam the perfect ‘go get it’ matchup throw or neat bubble screen weapon on a safer/shorter pass in the snow and let a 260+ man with 4.49 speed try and run through people.

The last time the current Broncos O-C was calling plays for a speedy TE…it was Evan Engram who was a top 3 FF TE in 2019 with Pat Shurmur until EE got hurt and left the season. I saw a lot of plays/work with Okwuegbunam like Engram/2019 this game.

If Noah Fant can play…then 80% of all this enthusiasm gets transferred to Fant.

 -- I’m in on Tim Patrick (4-101-0/8) as a solid WR3 with upside. He is the Broncos store brand Courtland Sutton while Sutton is out, and it works better with Lock than Rypien. This week in the snow v. KC is probably not a great spot but going forward he’s still of interest to me when people start giving up on him.

 -- I want to get more excited about Fant/Okwuegbunam-Patrick but Drew Lock (10-24 for 189 yards, 0 TD/2 INTs) is failing fast and cannot support many weapons for FF results.

Lock has played 7 games fully in his NFL career. He has thrown for less than 220 yards in six of them.

3 TDs/3 INTs in his last 6 games. He is a better-looking version of Daniel Jones…meaning failure is coming. Denver should try and trade for Ryan Fitzpatrick to save their season.

Lock throws a lot of deep passes up for grabs to his taller targets out of fear/lack of ability to read defenses – which is good for Tim Patrick and the speedy TEs.

 -- And then there’s the mess that is Cam Newton (17-25 for 157 yards, 0 TD/2 INTs, 10-76-1). 2 TDs/4 INTs for the season. 11 TDs/14 INTs in his last 12 NFL games. Three games under 170 yards passing out of 4 games played this season.

Cam is becoming ‘Bad Cam’, and all the Patriots’ WRs are dead because of it. None are worth anything right now.

Damiere Byrd (3-38-0/4) is their best WR now.

James White (4-8-0, 8-65-0/9) is their best FF receiver, in general, as Cam can only complete RB swing passes anymore. White’s last two games (he missed a few games prior with a death in the family): 7.5 rec., 51.5 yards, 0.0 TDs per game.

 -- Damien Harris (6-19-0, 1-14-0/1) looks fabulous…but he’s going nowhere for FF because James White takes all the passes and Cam Newton all the short yardage/goal line work. Harris will put up Sony Michel numbers at best in this offense…minus the TDs. Harris is for the future, not the now.

 -- Congrats to Phillip Lindsay (23-101-0), a 100+ yard rushing day. Lindsay is a talent that Denver should just embrace, but never fully does. He’s the heart and soul of the team.

He’s also an excellent receiver, which is why it makes so much sense he has 1 target in 59 snaps played this season.

I assume when the great Melvin Gordon returns, it’s back to a split for Lindsay.

 -- Pats rookie SAF Kyle Dugger (5 tackles) is playing more and more snaps, but only about 40% of the snaps – and in the limited snaps he’s making tackles. 4.0 total tackles the last 4 games in 40% of the time played. If you put him up to 100% of the snaps/as a starter…he’d be tracking 9-10 tackles a game at his pace. He’s not ready for IDP starting yet…just one to watch, waiting for him to start.

 -- I want to get behind a very stout Denver-DST, but their schedule won’t let me. Here’s the QBs they will face through Week 16: Mahomes, Herbert, Ryan, Carr, Tua, Brees, Mahomes, Teddy, Josh Allen, Herbert.

One start-able week (Tua).

Snap Counts of Intertest:

35 = Izzo

24 = Asiasi

31 = J White

18 = Burkhead

12 = Dam Harris

40 = Lindsay

25 = Freeman

39 = Butt

29 = Vannett

24 = Okwuegbunam

R.C. Fischer

FFM

22 October 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 6: Game Analysis: Steelers 38, Browns 7

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

Remember back to a time and place far, far away when the Browns were the apple of analyst’s eye and had finally turned the organizational ship around and were going to be a playoff team and Baker Mayfield had been ‘fixed’ and his wide receivers were now ‘fixed’ too? Ahh, a week ago…those were the good old days.

Exactly one week later, every football analyst has turned a 180 on the Browns…and Baker Mayfield being benched is a discussion, and where he should be traded to is a neat radio show topic.

That complete change of direction/analysis happened all in one week?

Football analysts are as bad as Fantasy GMs…whatever happened last week is the future for forever…or at least until next week.

The Browns are never going to go forward until they: (a) get rid of OBJ, (b) and get rid of Jarvis Landry at the same time as OBJ, and (c) either change the offense to fit Baker’s specific skill set or just trade him…and we’ll get into Baker in a bit.

As far as this game goes…it was as bad as the score indicated. It was over before it started. I opined the prior week that the Browns had confidence currently, a bounce in their step after that Dallas game – but that when they started losing that they’d sink right back into their pouty hole and roll over and lose and WR chaos would reappear. Well, ta da. It took a week…actually it took about 5 minutes into this game before the slumped shoulders and defeated faces appeared on the Browns side of the field.

The schedule begs the Browns to win 9 games, but you know they won’t. If they lose this week at Cincy, and I think they very well could, then this season is going to go flushing down the drain. We see the Browns at 7-8 wins right now at season’s end.

The Steelers are undefeated, but they haven’t really played anyone either. Their first tests are this week at TEN followed by at BAL. The schedule is going to help a good-not-great Steelers team to get to 11-12 wins and a probable top wild card unless the beat the Ravens Week 8…then the Steelers are in a driver’s seat for a 12 win season and a possible division title. We’re thinking 11-12 wins and the #1 wild card.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- I mean, you can’t write a Steelers Game Report without talking about his majesty…Sir Chase Claypool (4-74-0/4, 2-7-1/4). Yeah, I went ahead and knighted him…it was time…it was a secret ceremony.

The only CC takeaway here was – Ben only had to complete 14 passes in this win…and just 4 to Claypool, but two of those 4 had Claypool diving near the end zone for potential scores…two TDs within reach but just short (story of my 2020 Week 7). CC did get his TD run to push a solid fantasy week.

Imagine the frenzy of Claypool scored 3 TDs here after the 4 TDs the week before.

If you didn’t think NFL coaches were dumb enough…the Browns didn’t have Denzel Ward shadow Claypool all the time, and thus Claypool was burning Terrence Mitchell. Good job scouting, Browns’ staff! It must still be 2018, when JuJu Smith-Schuster (2-6-0/4) was still ‘a thing’ people thought about…because I saw Ward on JuJu more than a few times. Better keep that great JuJu weapon contained.

JuJu hasn’t been relevant since Antonio Brown left and took all the double teams to open up the field for JuJu with him. I wonder what stupid team is going to pay for JuJu in free agency like he’s a great NFL WR. Enjoy the Jets, JuJu!!

What’s going to happen to Claypool when Diontae comes back this week? The question is…what’s going to happen to Diontae when he returns, and Claypool is now the team’s star? I don’t know, we’ll see. No way to know…there’s no precedent. Eventually, it will be great for Diontae (as CC takes attention in coverage off Diontae)...but whether that starts this week, I don’t know. You don’t know either. We’ll find out together.

James Washington (4-68-1/7) is going to be a distant memory in 2020. Not his fault, just Diontae and Claypool are too good.

 -- Speaking of things cool in 2018, ‘remember when…’ on Baker Mayfield (10-18 for 119 yards, 1 TD/2 INTs)?

Remember when Baker set the rookie passing TD record in 2018, took the league, the Browns by storm? He did that with a revolving door of WRs. He had overrated Jarvis Landry, nothing-but-trouble Antonio Callaway, and Breshad Perriman. He made Callaway relevant as a rookie and he made Perriman a rich free agent.

2018 was so long ago.

Now, Baker looks like a fool playing QB.

I don’t know if it is the ever-changing offensive philosophies and/or head coaches and/or OBJ spoiling everything and/or all the commercials – but Baker is a shell of himself. He’s stuck in Cleveland purgatory…and if he is moved or leaves in free agency – who is building an offense around him? Baker’s star has fallen all the way to earth and penetrated the surface and buried itself deep in the Earth’s inner crust.

Sad.

This is why I’m a little fearful of what the Bengals organization is going to DO TO Joe Burrow. If Baker can go from taking the league by storm to stooge two years later…it could happen to Burrow, potentially.

How did Ohio and New York football get so bad at having  football teams?

*Also…Case Keenum (5-10 for 46 yards, 0 TD/0 INTs) is not the answer for CLE, because the problem is the WRs and organization more than the QB.

 -- You know Ben Roethlisberger (14-22 for 162 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) hasn’t thrown for over 240 yards in a game in his last 3 games, right? Just checking.

Also, not over 240 in four of his 5 games this season…you knew that, right? Seems a little weird…too tiny. I thought he had these great WRs?

11 TDs/1 INT and not forcing everything…the new Big Ben. However, he hasn’t had to force much because they’ve led in games or not played a powerhouse opponent yet. Let’s see if TEN and BAL the next two weeks draws him out of his shell…and what happens when all the Steelers’ WRs are healthy/playing with Claypool now an established god.

 -- Since Week 3, Austin Hooper (5-52-0/6) is the #8 TE scorer PPG in PPR.

Five catches in each of his last 3 games, averaging 5.0 rec., 47.7 yards, 0.33 TDs per game in that span. That’s nice work for the TE market today.

David Njoku (1-7-0/3) will be traded soon. He’s a bad TE like an Eric Ebron…good for some receiving from time-to-time but drops a lot of passes too and can’t/won’t block. So only a team that’s delusional/using mainstream scouting from 2-3 years ago would make this move…and it has to be a playoff contender.

Could be Washington as the most obvious. Green Bay, maybe.

 -- PIT ILB Devin Bush is done for 2020. In his place, UDFA Robert Spillane (6 tackles, 1 TFL) took over and played his heart out.

Spillane is a UDFA who has been cut, picked back up, cut, etc. Up and down he goes as a special teamer and backup afterthought. Well, he got his chance here and looked good. The guy plays a hundred miles and hour. He’s a great hitter/tackler. He’s going to have IDP value because he’s high effort and playing for a career and will get run at now…especially by the Titans.

I like Spillane as an ILB, but he’s the kinda guy I like but the NFL turns up their nose at. We’ll see if that happens here. The Steelers don’t have many other options unless they go trade for someone, which I would guess they would…this is a Super Bowl threat team, and a UDFA middle linebacker is not a good problem to have going against the big boys.

Matchmaking…

Nick Vigil from the Chargers in a trade? They’d know Vigil from his time in Cincy, and he’s buried in L.A.

Jarrad Davis from Detroit, a free agent to-be who has a name people liked at one-time.

Snap Counts of Interest:

51 = Claypool

43 = J Washington

42 = JuJu

40 = Hooper

23 = Njoku

21 = H Bryant

30 = Hunt

17 = D’Ernest

07 = Hilliard

R.C. Fischer

FFM

22 October 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 6: Game Analysis: Titans 42, Texans 36

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

I have no idea if the Titans are lucky or good, but they are (5-0) …and very lucky to not be (1-4). The collective record of their opponents so far…(9-20). They’ve beaten three (1-5) teams by 3, 1, and in OT.

How good are the Titans, really?

What to say about this game? It was a mess. Neither team could stop each other, and Tennessee the better team but they gave a couple turnovers to Houston to keep them propped up. Houston seemed to be on their way to a victory until Tennessee drove down and Ryan Tannehill hit a TD pass with 0:07 left to tie it. The Titans got the ball first in OT and just rammed right down Houston’s throats and game over.

No one was a real ‘winner’ here except fantasy owners.

If Tennessee puts away the Steelers this week, then they should easily win the AFC South and probably win 10-12 games this year. If the Titans lose, especially if they get smashed…it means they’ve been propped up, somewhat by their schedule and a 9-10 win season is coming and a probable AFC South title.

This was Houston’s last real stand. If they had won this game, they would’ve drawn to two wins behind Tennessee with 11 weeks left. Plenty of time, but they butchered it and effectively ended their season. Romeo Crennel is gonna be Romeo Crennel. Houston has a tougher schedule remaining and will likely finish with 4-5 wins. They should start selling everything off, but they won’t because NFL teams rarely do anything that makes sense, nor engage in trades out of fear of it not being a good trade.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- I’ve spent the last 24-48 hours working with people on what to do with David Johnson (19-57-1, 1-12-0/1). DJ sent his owners over the edge last week when he was sniffing a 2-3-4 TD day but constantly got stuffed near the goal line and ended up with just one TD.

Mostly, the past 24 hours, I’ve been helping discuss his trade away off FF-teams down to their last breath in Dynasty. Trying to take trade value advantage of the TD he scored this game and try to get over on the teams on Week 7 RBs on a BYE  issues.

FF-teams on the edge of ‘folding’ on 2020, but trying to win this week to stay alive, but also looking at futuristic moves…we’ve been moving DJ this week for ‘things’ if the deal is right/nice.

Why?

DJ is an RB2, that’s all. He’s not getting any better because his O-Line is not going to allow it. The RBs working behind the worst O-Line ratings are all dying – Ezekiel Elliott, James Robinson, Le’Veon Bell (NYJ), Miles Sanders, and worst among them Devin Singletary…and including David Johnson. Offensive lines typically do not get magically better as the season wears on unless a stud OL or two is returning from an injury that held them out for weeks and hurt the O-Line for weeks but now is returning to shore things up. It is what it is with these RBs…painful to watch them try to find space to run.

You can only hope DJ falls into the end zone to pump his FF number, and he is getting good chances and will be an RB2 over time because of it…but he won’t be a breakout performer ahead (unless traded before the deadline). The Houston O-Line is rotten, as is the coaching, and they aren’t throwing him the ball (which is absolute insanity). He is what he has been the first 6 weeks…60-80 yards rushing, 1-2 catches, and pray for a 1-yard TD plunge (that has 75% odds of being stuffed).

The last three weeks in PPR…David Johnson scoring vs. J.D. McKissic:

Week 4 = 11.2 to 10.6 DJ

Week 5 = 12.3 to 10.1 DJ

Week 6 = 14.4 to 13.9 McKissic

If you’ve been sitting on McKissic in PPR…why not deal DJ and use McKissic if you can get a nice return for DJ? Next week, Week 8…DJ on a BYE…you’re going to have to. Maybe McKissic can fall into the end zone this week?

David Johnson is not dead by any means. In fact, when he hits his Week 8 bye…some of you in a good place should look to buy him cheap. He’s going to be stable/fine. He might be a back-end RB1 in total pts this year on volume and health/playing all the games.

The DJ of 2016…the old DJ that flashed for a moment Week 1 of 2020…he has nowhere to run and doesn’t exist anymore. He’s still good. Hopefully he gets on a run of TDs like I think he might. Maybe they wake up and start throwing to him. I have hopes…but I highly doubt their reality based on Weeks 1-6.

He’s not a must-hold…or must-sell or must-anything. Just use as needed. Give up the fairy tale ending on him. Hope he goes off this week to sell hot. He’s just a useful RB2 with TD upside week-to-week.

And Duke Johnson sucks out loud, so DJ will not be pressured out of a role – actually DJ is playing terrific NFL ball. Blocking his arse off and making yards out of nothing to keep drives alive. He’s doing great at all stuff that does not matter for FF.

 -- Maybe Jeremy McNichols (5-51-0, 2-11-0/3) will be better than David Johnson ahead?

Everyone loves the 2nd back on a team who has a decent game and gets antennae raised. I know analytics people love McNichols…I used to too. If McNichols was shoved into a starting role, he’d do just fine. I’d chase him if he were starting…like a Mike Davis story. But note two things about this blip week…

1) The Texans gave up a bajillion yards rushing. McNichols saw a few touches and got his too. McNichols didn’t ‘emerge’. He was just on the field against a charity run defense.

2) When Darrynton Evans returns…he would likely be the #2 back over McNichols. Evans is on short term I.R. getting ready to return, or it might have been Evans drawing all this attention.

So, be careful thinking McNichols is the Henry cuff. He is until Evans returns.

 -- How about Anthony Firkser (8-113-1/9)…TE superstar!!?? Firkser had more catches, yards, and TDs then Evan Engram has tallied all season, I think.

Jonnu Smith got hurt and that helped push Firkser, but he was getting touches before Jonnu went down. Firkser has 2-4-0-3-8 for catches in games this season. He is not sitting around idle.

Firkser is a play IF Jonnu is out. Not a great/obvious one, but a play

I think Jonnu is going to play to throw cold water on this upstart hope for Week 7.

 -- Ryan Tannehill (30-41 for 364 yards, 4 TDs/1 INT) is arguably top 3 for the NFL league MVP right now. He’s been a top 5 Fantasy QB over his last 16 games, as I’ve pointed out since Week 1. I can only hope you grabbed him as your QB2, if needed, and if Justin Herbert wasn’t your QB2 grab (in redraft) weeks ago.

Tannehill keeps working over and over and over and yet he rarely starts in most 12-team leagues and rarely ranked in the top 12 QBs by analysts in a given week.

He’s a top 10 QB play every week for the ROS…just no one can get used to it or give into it. Because of that, you can still trade for him reasonably.

 -- Deshaun Watson (28-37 for 335 yards, 4 TDs/0 INT) played his best game of 2020, which makes me fear the Titans defense going forward.

Without many choices out there at DST, in a year where people are hoarding them…the Titans are something on schedule ahead.

Week 8 = at CIN, bad O-Line, lots of sacks.

Week 9 = Foles/weak Bears offense

Week 10 = Rivers

Week 11 = Lamar (no good)

Week 12 = Rivers again

Week 13 = Baker

It’s not nothing. But I don’t know if the Titans have a good enough all-around defense to hold up/take advantage. Just facing all the NFC East offenses with your DSTs is better.

 -- Darren Fells (6-85-1/7) had a big day, as he’s done twice with Jordan Akins out. I can only wonder how much of that was Akins’ gold…stripped away by an injury/concussion.

If Akins isn’t back this week, it’s TE1 Fells time again.

 -- Brandin Cooks (9-68-1/9) was a nobody with Bill O’Brien, but since O’Brien got fired, in two games, Cooks is averaging 8.5 catches, 114.5 yards, and 1.0 TDs per game…the hottest WR in fantasy almost.

I didn’t think it would hold up after Week 5, but it did. It might be a bit of a favorable schedule pushing it -- but note that Weeks 11-15 are unfavorable to the Houston WRs/QB, so if Cooks is just taking advantage of a moment…that moment will be over Week 11 or prior, potentially.

But I wouldn’t bet against Cooks for Week 7…I wouldn’t bet against until he shows you otherwise.

 -- Three IDPs to note here…

1) TEN DT Jeffrey Simmons (6 tackles,1 sack) has put up some pretty righteous numbers the past two games…

5.5 total tackles, 1.0 sacks, 1.0 TFLs, 2.5 QB hits per game.

2) HOU LB Tyrell Adams (8 tackles, 1 TFL, 2 PDs) is the new starter for gone-for-the-year Benardrick McKinney and he has averaged 10.0 total tackles, 1.0 TFLs, 1.0 PDs per game in his two games as a starter.

He looked OK…OK enough to get to the ball and hit people. Now, he was out of position a lot and the Titans exposed and spanked him/the Texans for a massive rushing game -- but that’s good for his IDP. We want the LB on a team where everyone is running it down their throats.

3) HOU DT P.J. Hall (7 tackles, 1 QB hits) has had 7 total tackles in a game in two of his last 3 games…which is a lot for a DT. I don’t see anything magical happening besides he’s playing his heart out and good things are happening (and everyone wants to run all over Houston). So, maybe this pace keeps up/going?

Snap Counts of Interest:

45 = D Henry

29 = McNichols

49 = Swaim

41 = Firkser

29 = Jonnu

56 = David Johnson

19 = Duke Johnson

R.C. Fischer

FFM

21 October 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 6: Game Analysis: Giants 20, Football Team 19

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

This was a chore to watch.

How, in 2020, are these two QBs starting on purpose for NFL teams?

Daniel Jones has been exposed as even more of a fraud since Saquon Barkley went out…Allen is so bad he makes Kyle Allen look ‘not so bad’. In reality, these are bad QBs and watching them play each other was embarrassing…an offense to my football sensibilities.

The only way to recap this game is – both QBs suck. Their O-Lines are terrible. They have no run games, and their QBs cannot complete the most basic of passes consistently…but both teams have promising, decent defenses. They played a game, and the one team that got a late strip sack fumble scoop-and-score won the game after the other failed to convert a two pointer at the buzzer.

The Football Team scored late and decided to go for two and the win versus taking a tie. We’re seeing a lot of teams fail in these gutsy ‘go for two’ situations – to me, it shows the utter lack of coaching sense and prowess in the NFL. Not that it was a bad decision – I’d go for a win right in front of me 100 times out of 100. I’m sick of teams playing to tie, kicking short field goals all game (and worse when they do it facing Mahomes or Rodgers or Wilson, etc.), punting for field position instead of going for it on 4th & 1s at midfield.

Football players are so coached, so conditioned to risk aversion their entire football lives that they don’t feel comfortable going for two in a tight spot. If they did go for things all the time, they’d have the mental reps/advantage over the unpracticed/un-used to it defenses. Instead, the unpracticed/inexperienced in these situations offense goes for two and chokes a lot.

Practicing a ‘go for two play’ the final two minutes of your Friday practices is not ‘prep’ enough for the real battle.

NFL teams ‘going for two’ are like a person who has never spoken in public, and knows that they are introverts, but then suddenly they decide to give a speech in front of 50,000-to-16M people watching them next week and their prep in the week going into the big speech is watching a quick YouTube video on ‘Public Speaking’ on Friday night.

Never-ending books could be written on how not to conduct business just by studying and reporting on how poorly NFL teams run and coached.

So, Washington went for two…and failed. Big shock.

The Giants now play for first place against the Eagles Thursday. Washington plays for first place vs. Dallas Sunday. If either NYG or WSH had a decent QB…they could win this division. Washington in more of a position to because Kyle Allen is the 2nd-best QB in the NFC East now. Daniel Jones is the worst QB in the NFL or CFL right now. Those Manning’s sure know football, right? Let’s listen to them more on Daniel Jones and Adam Gase. Peyton Manning will be an NFL analyst and a GM in no time, mark my words.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Just to further the QB discussion…

Both these QBs are so bad it’s killing their WRs/TEs for Fantasy. You have to run from Daniel Jones/Kyle Allen and run to where offense is, hidden preferably to buy in cheap today (which is LAC and BUF primarily).

1) You trade Darius Slayton (3-41-1/4) off this TD event. Two good games in a row – must sell hot now. Not his issue, it’s the worry that Dan Demise will not throw 10 TD passes this year the rest of the way.

2) Evan Engram (2-30-0/3) cannot be trusted. He’s awesome, but Jones + Jason Garrett = a joke. Engram opened this game up with a sweet 21-yard pass play. He had one more touch the rest of 43 plays for NYG. He’s their best player and they barely try and use him now.

He’s a TE flyer that you hope you find the game they finally decide to use him or he just breaks a big play off one of his two catches…a good situation like this week vs. a bad-v-TE defense of Philly, for the division lead. I wish I could count on it…if Jason Garrett wasn’t such a dolt.

3) Terry McLaurin (7-74-0/12), like Slayton, is a fine player…but he's a slave to the QB and Allen is a short passer/dumper not a medium/deep specialist. McLaurin’s upside is limited to this type of game.

4) Steve Sims would be an interesting fit, but I don’t know if Sims is now benched, or was just hurt and held back or what is going on.

 -- The DSTs in this game were/are the most interesting things…because they have decent defenses BUT they also play the other awful NFC East teams a lot ahead – and that’s of supreme FF-interest.

The problem with trying to sit on both together is their schedules don’t mesh well. They are both not bad/looks good Weeks 7-12 but then both their schedules turn dark (out of division) Weeks 13-16.

The Giants have the better all-around defense, but worse offense to support it.

Washington has a good fantasy defense because they get a lot of pressure/sacks for upside scoring, but they also give up big plays and have downside risk.

Pick your poison.

I like Washington by a hair the next six weeks except the Week 8 BYE. Like, not love. You got a six-week window with them facing…Dalton, BYE, Dan Jones, Stafford, Burrow, Dalton.

 -- The one thing that’s been working for weeks on the Washington offense, is a player no one believes in, but should for PPR…J.D. McKissic (8-41-0, 6-43-0/6).

Think about it…if Washington is still in this thing/FNC East, a win away, they are going with their best players/options – and McKissic is Washington’s best back, mainly because he’s so great in the Kyle Allen short passing game. He’s their low rent Christian McCaffrey. He’s like a slot WR playing RB.

PPR points the past three weeks, Gibson v. McKissic:

Week 4 = 22.8 to 10.6 Gibson

Week 5 = 10.9 to 10.1 McKissic

Week 6 = 14.4 to 9.5 McKissic

PPR points the past three weeks, James Robinson v. McKissic:

Week 4 = 14.7 to 10.6 JRob

Week 5 = 11.0 to 10.9 JRob

Week 6 = 15.3 to 14.4 JRob

Not much difference, no?

You could do worse than McKissic as a PPR fill-in during BYE weeks, and he has upside. He’s really very good.

 -- Two Washington defenders to note that I’m pretty much ready to fold on for IDP, because I’m tired of waiting/I should just trust what the coaching staffs are saying…

1) Troy Apke went to the bench this week for Deshazor Everett (6 tackles). Apke played special teams. He’s likely dead now.

2) I was excited to see Cole Holcomb (6 tackles, 1.0 TFLs) starting, but that was for one play…then 5-6 plays later back in. Mostly he was rotating in and out. He looked fine but he’s not a desired piece for Washington. I loosely hold him in deep roster IDPs. It may pay off someday, but probably not. He has all the signs of a defender I like that the NFL coaches do not, at linebacker.

Snap Counts of Interest:

35 = Devonta

04 = Gallman

40 = Slayton

36 = Austin Mack

30 = Tate

39 = McKissic

27 = Gibson

08 = Barber

48 = Bostic

34 = Pierre-Louis

31 = Holcomb

R.C. Fischer

FFM

21 October 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 6: Game Analysis: Lions 34, Jaguars 16

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

This was an ugly game…another game where the Lions got out of the gates quickly (up 14-3 early 2nd-half, then up 24-3 mid-3rd-quarter) and then started playing sloppy but the Jags played sloppier in response, every time the Lions gave them an opening the Jags failed. How Doug Marrone is still employed at this point is a total mystery, but I believe they too are trying to lose…so, like the Jets, it’s best to keep the head coach that gives you the best chance of losing every game.

The Jags are not worse than the Jets, and the Jags play hard, and ineffectively, so they will probably stumble into 3-4-5 wins this year. There’s no way they’ll ‘knock off’ the Jets for that #1 pick.

Speaking of everyone tanking for Trevor Lawrence…I can already feel this football sentiment rising, and it’s always wrong – that Lawrence is the universal, unquestioned best QB prospect in generations and everyone needs to tank for Trevor.

Last time we saw this -- the football intelligentsia boasted it was time to ‘Tank for Tua’! And they were ultimately wrong…he’ll be lucky to be the 3rd-best QB from the 2020 class.

They also called Sam Darnold and Jameis Winston ‘generational’. Their last real golden boy they love to point to is Andrew Luck, but they conveniently forget two QBs taken in the 3rd-round of that draft ended up better (Russell Wilson, Nick Foles). But now trust them that they ‘know’ Trevor Lawrence is the greatest.

I saw an article where the analyst called Lawrence the best QB prospect he’s seen in decades. Has he turned on the TV and watched a Chargers’ game this year? Or what about an LSU game last year? The media makes up a narrative and they all run 100% in lockstep with it. The media, as witnessed by the current political environment, is getting worse not better with time. Football media is as bad/worse than the political news media. I thank God for that, so I can stay in business…try as they may to keep me buried.

The Lions passed on Herbert-Tua to take Jeff Okudah in one of the contenders for stupidest draft moves of 2020. Regardless of that dumb move, the Lions are now (2-3). All their losses to quality teams. They are (2-3) but could be (3-2/4-1) with any luck. We say that a lot about the Lions under Matt Patricia…that they coulda been ____ better record. At some point it’s not luck…it’s who they are.

With a win this week, Detroit would be (3-3) and firmly in the playoff hunt with a decent schedule ahead. I’ll just blindly bet against Matt Patricia from here…and I bet I win more than I lose.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- I was interested to see D’Andre Swift’s (14-116-2, 3-7-0/4) tape here. Out of nowhere, Swift popped from his star fading fast to suddenly he’s the future of the Lions again. A lot can happen in one week…just ask Darrell Henderson.

Mr. Swift, you are no Darrell Henderson.

I’m always unimpressed with what I see from Swift on his NFL tape. A slow to shift, heavy-footed runner who has a lot of David Montgomery in him. Swift is a better version of Montgomery, but the issue remains that neither is a real bell cow back. Too slow, too much hopping/changing directions for the sake of doing it, too much slowing down when they try to hop around/change directions…they’re always trying to cut things back away from contact and it worked in college and with a big NFL hole to gather steam in and make the cut full speed, but in NFL congestion they cannot stop and turn and get away from NFL defenders…they have college agility not pro agility.

D’Andre Swift is a little better version of Theo Riddick…and Riddick was a solid/good player for Detroit for years. It’s not a diss…but it is when you put Swift on a pedestal, because all of football did coming into the draft…but let me redirect you to my opening discussion of the QBs ‘THEY’ love for how much I trust what THEY see.

Swift will get a push now because of this good game, but really this was a 116-yard rushing game bolstered by a play that happens once a year, if that – Swift ran off tackle and there was a completely wide open hole and also no one there at linebacker or safety after Swift went through it. Swift ran 30+ yards without anyone 2-3 yards near him. But because he has Theo Riddick speed, he was easily caught up to from behind and held to a 54-yard run.

I don’t see anything special with Swift, but I’m sure he’s going to see 10+ carries and 3+ targets this week working in-and-out with aging-quickly Adrian Pederson (15-40-1). AP is fading, so Swift has a chance…Kerryon Johnson (4-9-0, 1-11-0/2), former football analyst's future great, may have a shot at touches soon too…if they cut/dump AP in another loss or two.

 -- Speaking of unimpressive RBs…James Robinson (12-29-0, 4-42-1/4) is slowly fading into the circle of mediocre RB2 hell. Robinson is a solid NFL RB prospect, but plays behind a terrible O-Line…the same one that killed Leonard Fournette.

Just 1.8 ‘yards before contact’ per attempt spacing for JRob this season, which is below the 2.0+ you want to see – he’s falling down with the Zeke’s and DJ’s of poor blocking numbers to work with.

But I know this – the Jags are committed to JRob no matter what. They’ve shown him more respect than Detroit has Swift. So, I like JRob over Swift, but don’t love either.

 -- Gardner Minshew (25-44 for 243 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 3-14-1) didn’t play his best game but I must note…two good WRs dropped two deep passes that were tough catches, but catchable and left 90+ yards on the table lost for Minshew in this game…which would’ve kept Minshew’s 300+ yards passing roll going this season.

Minshew is a good, scrappy QB on a bad team that cannot run the ball and is often losing so it needs to pass a lot…that’s good for FF production. Minshew is like the new Ryan Fitzpatrick of 2-3-4 years ago, for FF. Bad team…scrappy…will run for yards/scores…loses but is always throwing for numbers anyway.

 -- Speaking of the Jags’ WRs, and those two key drops…

1) Keelan Cole (6-143-0/9) is so good, so disrespected by the NFL, the fans, his own team and QB. Cole should be a respected NFL starter getting 6-8+ targets every game, but he’s usually getting ignored most of the game until the hurry-up offense down 2-3 scores with 4 minutes left in the game. Not here, he wasn’t…he was more respected this game, but not radically so…

Just note with Cole’s numbers here that he dropped a floated hail mary throw of about 40 yards…it was underthrown but Cole came back to it and went to the ground to grab but dropped it…or Cole might have had 180+ yards this game. Also, Cole was open for a 15+ yard easy TD toss but got held and didn’t get to the ball…penalty not called. Cole was sniffing towards 200 yards and a TD, but it was a pretty quiet ‘big game’…it wasn’t like Minshew discovered Cole was ‘his guy’ now.

2) Laviska Shenault (3-10-0/7) was Minshew’s guy leading up to this, until he wasn’t here. Shenault is OK/good not great and was mostly a non-factor here.

3) D.J. Chark (7-45-0/14)…good news, bad news.

The ‘good news’ – Chark got the ‘my guy’ treatment from Minshew. I’ve started to see that shift for the past few weeks. If Minshew is going to put up a lot of garbage stats…DJC will be a beneficiary.

The ‘bad news’ – Chark looks like he’s 75% of himself. The burst/fast cuts/breaks weren’t there this game. He’s been dealing with an ankle/leg injury. He may need more time to heal. Hopefully, he sits out Wednesday practice and is limited the rest of the week…and gets closer to 100%.

Chark caught a 50+ yard deep ball pass, a sweet play, but had the ball torn from him as he fell to the ground and ruled not a catch. Chark also had two end zone shots his way on designed plays that didn’t work. There is an effort to get the ball to DJC, and this game could’ve been a whole lot more for FF…despite his lingering leg issue. All ‘good news’.

 -- Matt Stafford (19-31 for 223 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) has yet to throw for 300+ yards in a game this season. His completion percentage is sitting at a 5+ year low of 60.7%. He’s not terrible, he’s just not playing all that well. He’s not a top 15-18 FF QB right now.

The Lions are trying to play ball control, and thus Stafford is a low volume passer on a low volume passing game plan/play calling coaching staff.

He’s not a great QB2 option…but many took him as a QB2, myself included in spots, as a safe backup plan with upside from his hot 2019 – it’s not in sight for 2020. It’s not going to happen, on purpose…only if the game flow drags him into it.

All that hurts the projections for Golladay-Marvin-Hockenson.

Snap Counts of Interest…

57 = Chark

48 = Cole

47 = Shenault

15 = Collin Johnson

15 = Conley

44 = J Robinson

20 = Chris Thompson

46 = TJ Hockenson

42 = Jesse James

29 = Swift

27 = AP

17 = Kerryon