R.C. Fischer

FFM

07 October 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 4: Game Analysis: Browns 49, Cowboys 38

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

Another week, another Cowboys stumbling, bumbling and fumbling away a game…and getting down a major amount (down 41-14 going into the 4th-quarter) then making a ferocious comeback but falling short in the end. I don’t know why this keeps happening to the Cowboys, but it does…and the theories are all over – the defense, the coaching in general, the O-Line injuries, Zeke fumbling…a combination of all of it.

I don’t know how it will change. This is who the Cowboys are. They keep losing O-Linemen. They have no defensive cohesion. They have terrible coaches (Jerry’s fault, per usual). I’d just assume every week is going to be like this most of the rest of the season – and if it is…it’s going to be surreal for fantasy things related. We’ll get into that in a moment.

I didn’t think Cleveland was all that great here…you could say it was more Dallas was bad/stumbling and the Browns had a couple trick plays that clicked and so they beat a really bad Dallas team. If the Browns were something special, Dallas wouldn’t have stormed back into the game at will. After Dallas’s similar Week 2 game with Atlanta, people assigned a ‘not so bad’ label to the Falcons for a moment too.

Dallas is (1-3) and who knows where the season is going. They’re in 1st-place. They play in a division with three teams that are worse than they are. Somebody has to win the NFC East…it should be Dallas, but I have a funny feeling it won’t. They might get-got by the Giants this week and all hell break loose in Dallas.

The Browns are a ‘bad’ (3-1) team. I’m not buying any renaissance or great/new coaching. They luckily beat Cincy, came from behind to beat Washington, and then had this gift they almost threw away. They will likely lose to IND and at PIT the next two weeks and start reeling towards (8-8/7-9) from there.

The hope with Cleveland is – you woke them up. They are now playing with confidence and a bounce in their step, especially OBJ. It’s nothing two bad losses ahead won’t cure…

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Alright, we gotta start with the Browns RB situation…

Nick Chubb is done for about 6 weeks or so.

As soon as Chubb went down, D’Ernest Johnson (13-95-0) entered the game and made a real nice run…and then another…and then another…and suddenly it went from cute to – is D’Ernest Johnson the best RB on the Browns roster?

Who is D’Ernest Johnson?

For a scouting visual = If I took D’Ernest and put him in a #41 Saints’ jersey with the name ‘Kamara’ on the back…you wouldn’t be able to tell the difference that I made the human switch. He has a similar playstyle and athleticism/talent.

He played college ball at South Florida, where he was stuck behind Marlon Mack most of his career. He was an all-purpose back his entire career…16 rushing TDs, 12 receiving TDs, 1 punt return TD, threw for 2 TDs on three career passes.

I saw him working in the 2019 preseason and thought he looked/worked like a version of Alvin Kamara and was talented and showing it all preseason…but I knew he was buried in Cleveland, so no big deal for fantasy.

Chubb went down and Johnson came in to take touches and was fantastic here. I think they planned to rotate Johnson and Dontrell Hilliard (5-19-0, 1-2-0/1) some, but Johnson was so good they just stuck with him.

Here’s the thing…Kareem Hunt (11-71-2, 0-0-0/0) took his last carry with three minutes left in the 3rd-quarter. Johnson took it the rest of the way (7 carries from that point/last 18 minutes to the end)…even as things went from blowout to tight, it was Johnson not Hunt. Showing that there is trust in Johnson…or they had to because Hunt is banged up.

When OBJ came in to run that end around miracle late in the 4th-quarter…Hunt was in the backfield that play. Other than that, it was Johnson all 4th-quarter with some Hilliard (2 carries in the last 18 minutes of the game).

What happens Week 5?

I’d guess this will be a 60/40 split with Hunt…maybe 65/35. Johnson is no joke. Johnson could work well enough to be 50/50, to let Hunt heal more from his injury/not get worn-out. I’m excited by this, but nervous that they have at IND, at PIT the next two weeks. Also, nervous because I know how UDFAs get treated 99% of the time…not well, no matter how good they do.  

I’m buying it more than I’m selling it. Buying a 60/40 Hunt/DJ split happening until Chubb returns.

 -- OK, I was wrong about Dalton Schultz (4-72-1/8). I thought he was a junk/typical, stiff backup TE getting some action just because he was there in the wild comeback passing efforts…and there is a strong dash of that mixed into the stew here for sure. But watching Dak go to him often here, forcing passes to him – it wasn’t a ‘moment’, like what we might have seen with Robert Tonyan on MNF…Schultz looks like a decent connection with Dak (single tear rolls down for what might have been with Blake Jarwin…).

I dismissed Schultz after Jarwin went down, but he kept producing…well, watching him here – it’s working. Mix a ‘C’ grade TE with a team throwing two games worth of passes in a single game, and good things can happen for the TE for fantasy.

I wouldn’t bet my life on it, but I’m OK trying to ride the momentum here…more than I would Tonyan, Sample, Ebron, J Graham, etc.

Here’s the thing for those of us that missed him… Dallas faces the Giants this week. NYG has been really good against the TE. They can cover TEs well. It might be a down game/dose of reality for Schultz. You might assess after Week 5 and chase (if you wanted, not a must) at much lower prices going into Week 6.

NYG covering the TE is ranked…

#10 best in TE yards allowed.

#9T best in receptions to TE allowed.

#1 tied with 7 other teams allowing no TDs to opposing TEs this season.

 -- Speaking of TEs…CLE rookie Harrison Bryant (4-37-0/4) isn’t playing terrible football. In fact, I’d say I might rather have Bryant than Austin Hooper (5-34-1/7) in the days ahead.

I’m pretty sure I’m not excited by Hooper, but he’s the expensive starter…so Bryant would be speculative.

Hooper is playing 80%+ of the snaps and is a traditional TE, slower and stiffer…but good/established.

Bryant has more juice, more bounce in his step…and he’s playing 60%+ of the snaps as a TE/FB who provides some spark in the passing game. He had a TD in Week 3…had a nice game here. He’s ascending but has Hooper in his way/putting a ceiling over him.

If Hooper goes down for any reason…

 -- Because Dallas is playing/providing two games worth of stats in a single game each week…Dalton Schultz works and the Cowboys are rolling five working WRs.

Amari Cooper is obviously the #1 for Dak.

CeeDee Lamb (5-79-2/7) is the #2 look, just ahead of Schultz.

Cedrick Wilson (3-34-0/6) looked great Week 3 and was solid here…6 targets.

Noah Brown (4-43-0/4) also looks really good. I’ve always liked Brown. He might even be a listed TE in some leagues, maybe? He used to be one. Two weeks in a row of solid tape for Brown.

Michael Gallup (2-29-0/5) is suddenly the deep ball decoy guy. Dak just threw for 500+ yards in a game and Gallup was 7th best in receiving yards for Dallas this game…just edged out Blake Bell for that honor. Four games in 2020 for Gallup, on an offense stacking numbers, and he had a big 2nd-half Week 3 for fantasy…and been FF-useless otherwise the other 3.5 games.

 -- If I told you two years ago, that in Week 4 of the 2020 season…the Browns would beat the Cowboys 49-39, you would have though Baker Mayfield (19-30 for 165 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) must have had 300+ yards passing and 3-4 TD passes easy…maybe 400+ yards and 5+ TDs?

How about 165 yards passing and 2 TDs…among these 49 points scored?

I’m all the way the hell done with Baker in this offense.

Because Baker beat Dallas with 49 points, and is now (3-1), I’m seeing articles all over about the maturing of Baker, the improvement of Baker – go sell that off in Dynasty.

 -- Odell Beckham (5-81-2/8, 2-73-1) woke up with a big game…lucky/unlucky if you had him/faced him.  

The thing is…OBJ’s long TD catch was a Jarvis Landry WR pass that was so perfectly thrown they couldn’t duplicate it if they ran it 1,000 more times. Minus that catch, OBJ with Baker…in a 49 point explosion…4 catches for 44 yards and a short TD.

You gotta sell this for all it is worth.

 -- So, Dallas is getting destroyed by the run game…the Browns only ran for 307 yards and 3 TDs with 7.3 yards per carry here. Dallas is also bottom 10 in defending the tight end.

At what point will I get credit for being the only football person who told ‘them’ that Linebacker Jaylon Smith (7 tackles) is not great…not even good…but that he sucks and he’s killing them? And has been for years, but Jerry knows more than me and gave him a six year/$68M with $35M guaranteed deal a few years ago.

Don’t blame Zeke, McCarthy, Nolan, the footballs, the schedule…the blame goes where it always does: Jerrah Jones.

Snap Counts of Interest:

67 = Gallup

63 = Amari

62 = CeeDee

22 = N Brown

18 = C Wilson

63 = Hooper

53 = H Bryant

16 = St Carlson

58 = OBJ

57 = Landry

33 = Peoples-Jones

26 = Hunt

17 = D Johnson

15 = Hilliard

14 = Chubb

R.C. Fischer

FFM

06 October 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 4: Game Analysis: Panthers 31, Cardinals 21

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

Well, well, well… Arizona not looking so hot anymore, no? Hard to say which way this is breaking…breaking bad or breaking OK/good -- four games played, 2 wins, 2 losses, looked good for a game (Week 1)…looking worse as we go (Weeks 3-4). Where are they headed? Well, my sense is – the Kliff Kingsbury (negative) effect is settling in.

This Arizona team is looking progressively worse every week. This offense is as limited and un-fun to watch as it was last year. Same tired routes. Same missed deep balls. Every so often there’s a moment where Kyler can sit in the pocket for a breath and throw a laser strike, and it sucks you back in…but mostly this is a dink and dunk offense heading nowhere fast – it goes as far as Kyler’s running and Hopkins YAC will take them…and that’s not all that far in today’s NFL.

The defense was looking stout for about two games, and now it has lost the best defender/Budda Baker for some time and it is fading. There’s little ‘real’ run game (outside of Kyler), the defense is leaking, the offense is boring, the O-Line is degenerating – it’s a battle to (8-8) now.

This wasn’t even a game – Carolina jumped out to a 14-0 and 28-7 lead before giving up some junk to a merciful end. This game was never in doubt. Matt Rhule has his undermanned, young team on the rise…Kingsbury has his unit in decline. The story of these two teams of the next few years will be – Kingsbury fired and a total chaotic mess ensues in Arizona in 2021 or 2022 while Rhule goes on to rule the NFC South for years to come and becomes one of the best head coaches in football.

This game may have marked the intersection where Rhule already jumps past Kingsbury on his ladder climb to becoming one of the top young coaches, if not THEE top young coach in the game. It’s a Week 4 win for Rhule and foreshadowing of where these two teams are headed.

Arizona gets a HUGE break with a game with the Jets next week…the bleeding might stop there, and then there’s trouble ahead with the schedule. We are projecting them (8-8) with a (7-9) bias right now. Gone is the 10+ win hope/excitement after Weeks 1-2. If they lose to the Jets Week 5…all hell will break loose in Arizona.

Carolina has a chance to be (3-3) after Week 6, before the schedule comes after them. A 7-8 win season is not out of reach for them, but 6.5 wins this year would be my marker right now.

After two weeks, we all thought Arizona was going to the playoffs and maybe winning the division…and Carolina is rebuilding effort, just lost CMC, and will be lucky to win 2-3 games.

My how things change in two weeks… (keep that in mind if you’re scuffling in fantasy right now)

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- As always, we begin with ‘The Kyler Murray (24-31 for 133 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT, 6-78-0) Report’.

Another flimsy passing effort from Kyler…in output. He looks fine enough as a passer, but this offense, this route tree is the worst. The scheme and weak O-Line is forcing Kyler into a 200-250 or less yards per game passer in an era where 300+ yards is normal, even for rookies debuting who didn’t know even know they were starting until 15 minutes before the game have 300+ yards passing as like the minimum expectation. But not for Kyler in year two of this ‘amazing, innovative offense’.

Kyler’s TD rate has gone up…so he’s progressing there. No more always-stalled drives near the goal line like 2019. Kyler’s running output is way up…and that’s keeping his FF numbers propped up, which is good for us. He’s a nice fantasy QB, but so-so NFL QB right now…because of the offense he’s playing in.

One thing about his running…on Kyler’s big run of the game, a 40+ yarder, he broke away from the 2nd-level and was off to the races. I thought a 70+ yard TD run was about to land for our FF teams. Instead, he was caught from behind by Donte Jackson (a 4.3+ runner, so it made sense) but also 235-pound linebacker/D-End Marquis Haynes (2 tackles) came from 5+ yards deficit and caught Kyler too. Anyone who tries to tell me Kyler is a 4.3 or low 4.4 runner…go watch his big run in this game. He’s not…not with pads on.

My big fear is, with Kyler, that we’re moving closer into a Kliff Kingsbury on the hot seat situation…and when Kingsbury goes…we’re all screwed with Kyler for FF potentially. I think he can only run this specific (crap) offense and would be constricted and flustered in a real/typical NFL offense. Just a hunch. And Kyler is a baby…he’ll pout at the drop of a hat. If they dump Kliff…Kyler might want to be traded or go to baseball. I don’t know where he thinks he could be traded to that works?

Arizona has a massive problem on its hands if this season starts getting away because they are fully leveraged into Kliff + Kyler…held hostage, really. I think the duo get to the end of the 2021 season before Arizona gives up on Kliff. A bad 2020 probably means the GM is getting the axe…and then the replacement GM has to deal with Kliff. Not going to be easy/fun if Arizona doesn’t start winning, like right now.  

I maintain the following: I love Kyler, but in Dynasty…I’ll make a deal and sell high. Not sell at any cost, sell high. He’s going to be productive for FF no matter what, I think…until Kliff gets in trouble/is gone. Then it will be a mystery.

The good news ahead is...

Here’s Kyler’s upcoming schedule of pass defenses to face by passing yards allowed ranking the six games…

#17/NYJ

#23/DAL

#32/SEA

BYE

#29/MIA

#28/BUF

#32/SEA

 -- Kenyan Drake (13-35-0) was cleared of any injury issue, so there will not be a ton of speculation about his Week 5 status…which sends me back to my Monday 3 things/5 players report/thinking on Chase Edmonds maybe making a push to grab this lead role.

Drake is averaging 3.8 yards per carry with no 100+ yards games, 1 TD, and 1.25 catches per game. He’s an RB3 this year so far.

With the losses…I’m sure Kingsbury’s patience is running thin, and Kliff changes his mood on players on a dime. Edmonds may start going from a 70/30 split to a 60/40 to a 50/50 soon. Edmonds is the better back to me as it is, so if you’re in a position to make the investment…consider Edmonds, especially as useful/has a pulse regardless for BYE weeks ahead, etc.

 -- Reggie Bonnafon (10-53-0, 2-18-1/2) got some nice work here and looked good+ as usual. If Carolina puts him back on the practice squad this week and no one picks him up/poaches him off in the NFL – then I don’t even know why I waste time watching/studying football because the NFL doesn’t study anything.

I mean the Jets pounce on Ty Johnson when DET cuts him, but lets Carolina just move Bonnafon up and down off the practice squad weekly with no diving in? That’s why they’re the Jets. But any team could claim this guy and he’d be better than most of their RB depth chart day one. I guess the Giants are too chocked full with RB talent to make room…

As soon as CMC returns, Bonnafon will be back to a bench player. But probably not going to practice squad anymore because someone has had to notice this in the past two weeks (they should’ve the last two months!).

 -- Not only is Robby Anderson (8-99-0/11) the #1 WR for Teddy but note that he just missed on two more catches for 50+ yards on overthrows by Teddy. Robby is becoming the star. Most people thought D.J. Moore (4-49-0/6). I thought Curtis Samuel (3-51-0/4) might work the slot more (and Robby strictly outside) + take more jet sweeps and be a guy to have – but Robby was the right answer. Anderson is working the slot type role a bunch now…because he’s Teddy’s guy.

I don’t know if Teddy Bridgewater (26-37 for 276 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT) needs more time to get in sync but he is misfiring pass all over, but still landing enough. He’s getting a bit less erratic every week. He’s also starting to get into a useful FF QB discussion. He has games with ATL two of the next 4 weeks, but tough matchups otherwise.

 -- What does Andy Isabella (2-3-0/3) get after his bit two-TD week last week? Three targets for two catches and 3 yards. What a breakout star!!! Kyler really knows how to use his weapons.

To be fair. Kyler hit him on the button for a 50+ yard play in the bag but Isabella tripped over his own shoelaces and face planted just as the ball was coming in to his full-sprinting arms.

Christian Kirk (3-19-1/5) being active hurt any hopes of more Isabella snaps/targets.

Neither Kirk or Isabella can be relied upon beyond a hail mary hope it’s the game they catch the one golden bomb shot Kyler gives them per game.

 -- You can use the Arizona-DST if needed this week…facing the Jets. But then it is over…

The schedule the next six weeks is lethal, mostly…

Week 6 = at Dak

Week 7 = R Wilson

Week 8 = BYE

Week 9 = Miami

Week 10 = J Allen

Week 11 = R Wilson

Snap Counts of Interest:

55 = Mk Davis

21 = Bonnafon

54 = Hopkins

53 = Fitzgerald

36 = Kirk

24 = Isabella

37 = Drake

21 = Edmonds

R.C. Fischer

FFM

06 October 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 4: Game Analysis: Rams 17, Giants 9

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

And so, now, I set out to report on my own FF-demise…

Re-watching this game, taking the notes, starting to write the report…it’s akin to be a youth in the early 1900s and being told to go out and get a ‘switch’ off a tree to bring to my dad so he can spank my a$$ with it. Picking your own torture device…is triple the torture.

Here, I got to watch Malcolm Brown in all his glory…again.

As Darrell Henderson looked great and led the way on the very first (long) drive/series for an early 7-3 Rams lead – I then watched the all-Malcolm Brown show after that first/opening drive for the Rams…and watched as the Rams offense instantly stalled the rest of the game…not scoring a TD for the next 45 minutes of the game.

At first, I just thought Brown was in for some relief…that’s aggravating, but fine. Then he stayed in…and stayed in, and got touches, and targets… Was Henderson hurt, I wondered? Must not be, because he’d come back in for a few snaps and then disappear for long stretches again. Once I realized what was happening…I couldn’t believe it. As I watched this live, it took a few series of play before reality set in of what was happening. I’d been duped by Sean McVay…again. It was like in this alternative ending to The Usual Suspects movie: https://youtu.be/K7ENqzHwaQ4

If I don't try to make light of the situation, I might be driven into madness.

To make matters worse – I think I really like what the New York Giants are doing. It could just be the paranoid delusions settling in…the PTSD impact from re-watching the Henderson hit to heart/FF teams. Well, we’ll address that next segment.

As for the game, the Rams tried to sleepwalk through this with Malcolm Brown and were not the better team. At least, the Rams were not the more energetic passionate team – that honor goes to the Giants. If the Giants had any semblance of an O-Line/blocking…they would have won this game by 2+ scores…and not in a ‘fluky’ way. I mean – the Giants are getting tough/gritty and the Rams are finesse S-A-W-F-T…and that’s why the Bills blew them out right away last week, and when the Rams snuck back in/ahead due to a lot of luck…the Bills then imposed their will and re-captured the lead/the win.

I’m telling you the Rams are not going anywhere…they may make the playoffs, but they are no threat to anything. They are S-A-W-F-T like their head coach…smart, sound, slick and S-A-W-F-T. Henderson gave them some backbone, but apparently that’s a foreign concept to them and the rejected it. California cool…which will get them nowhere in the playoffs. 2018’s Super Bowl run was a blip…like the Falcons and Eagles before them. No sustainability.

When the Rams play physical, mentally tough teams that are ‘good’ – they are going to get whacked. The next four weeks for the Rams: at Washington, at San Francisco, Chicago and at Miami…that could be a rougher stretch than expected with physical, grinder teams. The Rams have three wins this season…all over NFC East powerhouses. This Rams team is overrated. If The Football Team has Chase Young back this week…consider a light bet on them +9.0.

I really like the moxie this Giants team is playing with, and because of my Darrell Henderson (and Tyler Higbee) pain, I watched this intently live and then in the re-watch, so it kinda started catching my eye even more than my hints about the past few weeks – this isn’t a bad Giants team.

It’s not a good Giants team, but it’s not bad. And I rag on GM Dave Gettleman…but looking at what he did in the off-season with his defense rebuilding through free agency – he gets an ‘A’ for that effort. This defense is totally rebuilt, retooled, repowered and one of the better defenses in the NFL. We’ll get to the details on that in the next section.

The G-Men play their three NFC East foes in a row the next three weeks…if they can go (2-1), and I think they might, they could be (2-5) and tied for first place. Hop on the +9.0 train with NYG over Dallas.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- OK, what do we do with Darrell Henderson (8-22-0, 1-16-0/1) now?

I haven’t a clue.

Sunday afternoon/after the game, after drinking all this specific game result (for FF) in – I honestly questioned whether I wanted to continue on in this business. That’s how devastating it was.

Not that I was pouting that I had lost some FF games with Henderson in the lineup and a Mike Davis or Joe Mixon on the bench…I lose FF games all the time on bad sit-start choices. It comes with the territory. I can handle losing an FF game. No, this is more – I cannot even fathom how Sean McVay did what he did.

Why bother scouting football anymore when the head coach does things counter-intuitive to the talent they are presented with? How can I compete with that?

Anyone with two eyes and some sense of football could see how special Darrell Henderson was working. Hell, even the PFF people graded DH as the #1 RB in the NFL so far for the 2020 season…however it is that they grade things. Henderson’s performance had not been lost on football people or fans. And it’s not like Malcolm Brown was ‘special’ or has ever been ‘special’. Mike Davis can be as good as he wants…but his arse is going back to no touches on the bench when Christian McCaffrey is cleared. No one ever mistook Malcolm Brown for ‘good’. He’s probably never even been the #1 graded RB in the league according to PFF either…so there.

Had Brown come in and was a successful ‘hot hand’ and the offense took off…then I’d have little ground to stand on. I can assure you it wasn’t that Brown was doing anything great…the offense instantly died upon Brown’s takeover. 45 minutes of play between TDs (from the time Henderson was usurped)…and the last TD was a lucky blown coverage, easy TD…because the vaunted Rams’ offense scuffled outside of that.

What Sean McVay is thinking…I have no idea.

This is the same Sean McVay who iced Henderson all last year in favor of failing Todd Gurley. This is the same Sean McVay who drafted Cam Akers…already possessing Darrell Henderson. McVay knows very well who Darrell Henderson is and what he’s capable of…and he’s been trying to hide it from everyone for two years now. Only injury to the two ‘starters’ FORCED McVay to have to use Henderson Week 2 in the 2nd-half, and a star was born.

…a star was born for all of us…but not Sean McVay. His shame, his secret was exposed – and that’s not going to be allowed to stand. You cannot find out he’s NOT a genius.

When Henderson was named starter Week 3, I thought…OK, McVay isn’t that dumb. He gets it. How could he not? And in Week 3, Henderson became a full-fledged star. So, of course it was game-on for Week 4…right?

Looking back at it for research, I stumbled over something I didn’t see last week on the interweb – when asked early in the week if Henderson was starting Week 4 (vs. NYG), McVay said, “Yeah, I think so.” Here’s the full quote/section from ESPN…

Rams coach Sean McVay said Monday, “I think so,” when asked if RB Darrell Henderson will start Sunday vs. the Giants based on his performance the last two games. “He’s doing things that, not surprised, but very pleased. He’s a guy that I’ve always had a tremendous amount of confidence in,” McVay said, adding, “The more that he plays and the more he’s available, the better he’s going to get.”

Not exactly a gushing endorsement. And if we would have thought that McVay was just downplaying Henderson, we wouldn’t have believed McVay’s shoulder shrug/nonsense statement about Henderson. Week 4’s touches told us what McVay thinks. Look at McVay’s last line: “The more that he plays and the more he’s available, the better he’s going to get.”

You sir, Sean McVay, are filled with Bull $%#&.

Now what do we do?

I think we have to take McVay at his word/actions – everything he’s been about has been pro-Akers, pro-Brown, and anti-Henderson. *See also: Mike Tomlin when Jaylen Samuels was forced in as a rookie and wrecked things…and was immediately forced back down in his hole as soon as James Conner was limping back.

I wanted to believe McVay couldn’t be this dumb, when it came to what he was forced to see with Henderson -- but apparently, he’s just a nerdy version of Anthony Lynn. They are going to do things the way they want to even if it results in losses, because no one is smarter than them…not even reality or real outcomes. McVay has his little playbook of clever misdirection plays he draws up in his spare time for fun and he’s going to out-playbook opponents with his special plays because he’s a delicate genius.

I wish I didn’t defend NOT FF-trading Henderson hot last week…several of you asked/had the vibe, but I was going to be a hero with my guy I stuck by so I couldn’t part ways with my beloved. I fell for the oldest trick in the book – falling in love beyond reason with the new, hot thing toy…and now we’re all stuck with a guy we thought was an RB1 about 100 hours ago…and now we can’t really start him Week 5, but can’t cut him either…and can’t trade for anywhere near the value of last week either.

Freaking Sean McVay. https://youtu.be/FBgFHVELjGk

The Jaylen Samuels 2018 story is a cautionary tale here…and should be the subject of a 30-for-30 documentary. A tale of how blind NFL head coaches are to things that are so close to their face they can’t see it. Darrell Henderson Week 4 of 2020 could also be the 30-for-30 tipping point. when Anthony Lynn goes to Tyrod Taylor it should be a 10-part series.

What do you do with DHendo now for FF? You just have to hold and see what Week 5 brings…maybe Brown and Akers will get hit by a meteorite this week and Henderson will battle Eric Dickerson for touches ahead.

 -- Speaking of the delicate genius…

…and why he has effectively ended my 2020 Fantasy season.

He just took away Darrell Henderson...took an RB1 right out of my hands. But I don’t want to overlook him also taking a TE1 out of my hands either. Tyler Higbee (3-21-0/4) is playing a ton of snaps…that’s not the problem. The problem is the delicate genius isn’t designing plays for him like the end of last year. Higbee has a measly 3-5-2-3 for catches in games this season…less than 55 yards in each game.

Dalton Schultz gets better treatment in the offense than Higbee. And we left off last year with Higbee setting NFL records for TE performance…but, we can’t have successful things continuing to happen outside the holy playbook/scheme…so, Higbee became amazing and the Rams offense never better late last year…and then 2020 comes and we go away from it for more Josh Reynolds (3-25-0/4), I guess?  

One game of results is a blip. Two games is getting uncomfortable. Three games is pretty damning, but maybe there’s a turn to come (see: Joe Mixon Wk4)…but we’re four games in and this is who Higbee is going to be, we guess…2-4 catches, 30-50 yards per game and you HOPE he’s going to be an 8+ TD for the season guy to make FF points. That’s how Mark Andrews does it.

3.0 rec., 41.5 yards, 1.00 TDs per game = Andrews 2020 YTD

3.3 rec., 38.8 yards, 0.75 TDs per game = Higbee 2020 YTD

We have a basic fantasy TE1 with Higbee…nothing special, apparently. You have to stick with waiting for the explosion of TDs/output games and live with the TE2 weeks. If you try to guess the big weeks, you’ll drive yourself mad. If you got a better option…go for it, but there’s Kittle-Kelce-Waller…and then everybody else randomly blows. Higbee and Andrews might be #4-5 in the TE rankings as we go, but it’s going to be painful to live with every other 1-2 weeks of weak results.

 -- I really think Wayne Gallman (6-45-0) might take over this backfield for a stretch…or at least work into a split with ancient Devonta Freeman (11-33-0, 4-35-0/4).

Gallman was the better back here. He provided somewhat of a spark where none of the other backs are capable of providing. It’s not a great spark, but it’s at least a spark.

Not sure if it will matter if he gets to it but watch for Gallman to work into a split and go for the takeover within the next few weeks. A split is more likely.

 -- Speaking of disappointing TEs…Evan Engram (6-35-0/10).

I am coming to the realization that Higbee isn’t going to be what I thought/hoped for 2020. However, I’m not through with Engram. 10 targets here…led all receivers on either side in this game. They used him with a purpose…it was nice to see. If you give Engram 8+ targets a game, he’ll catch 5+ passes…and he’s capable of making magic happen off one of them. He could be the Giants’ Darren Waller mismatch/go-to.

Engram or Higbee ROS? What a choice.

Engram for me…in desperation. In PPR. Higbee non-PPR.

They’ll probably both just be #6-10 PPG TE scorers…and non-threatening/way behind the top/big three TEs.

 -- Daniel Jones (23-36 for 190 yards, 0 TD/1 INT, 6-45-0) didn’t play totally awful this game. Among all the bad QBs…Jones is one of the better ones.

They sped up his game and simplified things with quick hitters here, and that works for Jones…takes the lack of protection away from bothering Jones – because pressure is BAD for Jones. He’s patting the ball before he throws a hundred times in nervousness when the pocket is collapsing. Jones sees ghosts like Sam Darnold does…even if they aren’t really there.

The Giants had the ball in the red zone late to tie/win the game, but ‘Pattie’/heavy patter of the ball before a pass Daniel Jones chucked it too late and the Rams DB broke on his pass easy and picked it off at the goal line…ball game.

 -- If Daniel Jones could be made a little less awful, and if the Giants find a decent running back…they could take that with their emerging defense and make some noise in the godawful NFC East.

Let’s talk about this defensive makeover…

Signed Blake Martinez (13 tackles, 1 TFL) from Green Bay in the offseason, and I think he’s one of the best ILBs in the NFL…like top 2-3-4-5 among them.

Signed James Bradberry (4 tackles) from Carolina…and he’s been terrific as a shutdown corner. He had been a nice zone corner and unsure man-to-man guy, but he’s put those concerns to rest and then some.

Signed Kyler Fackrell (4 tackles, 1 sack, 3 TFLs) from Green Bay, one of the smartest defensive signings, under the radar, in the NFL.

These are three great additions. They added Logan Ryan late to aid the cause as well.

After Week 4 ends the Giants defense is going to be top half of the league in points allowed, top 10 in lowest total yards allowed, and top 5 in lowest yards per offensive play allowed.

The current leaders in ‘yards per offensive per play’ among defenses…

1) Indianapolis

2) San Francisco

3) Pittsburgh

4) Philadelphia

5) NY Giants

…names you might expect…PLUS the Giants, in other words.

Also, this NYG-D is #4 in yards per carry allowed.

This is a top 10 NFL defense right now…getting no support from their offense.  

Guess what? After Week 5 vs. Dallas…they face WAS-PHI-TB-WAS-PHI…WAS and PHI offenses (bad offenses) 4x in a five-game stretch.

Looking for a sleeper defense in deeper leagues? Here’s my first real deep find of 2020.

 -- The more lauded defense, but not as gritty as the G-Men, the Rams-DST still have a decent outlook ahead for the four more weeks due to the schedule.

At WAS, at SF, CHI, at MIA. They might be tough games to win but they are good matchups for their DST…maybe/maybe not vs. SF.

Snap Counts of Interest:

35 = M Brown

22 = Henderson

30 = J Reynolds

03 = Jefferson

37 = Devonta

21 = Dion Lewis

10 = Gallman

R.C. Fischer

FFM

05 October 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 4: Game Analysis: Broncos 37, Jets 28

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

I knew this was going to be a horrific piece of trash game to watch, but the only thing worse about it was an offensive explosion sprung out of it…and some fantasy players I would never touch had decent games from it. I wanted this game to be the 6-3 final score nightmare it felt like was coming. But, because these two teams are so bad and because we’re in the Arena league mode of the NFL…offense happened. Terrible offense, but it happened.

In a game filled with lucky passes that should’ve been picks (Broncos) and egregious/dangerous penalties (Jets), the Broncos ultimately won. Someone had to win! Now, 3rd-string QBs are handing losses to Sam Darnold and Adam Gase…how low can this franchise go? (0-16) might be how low it’s going. A bottom 3 QB, the worst RB group in the NFL, the #1-2 worst WR group, a bottom five O-Line and a stripped of talent via trade and COVID opt-out defense – how can this team win a game this year, if not this one?

The Jets only real shots at wins this year are Week 12 hosting Miami (if the weather is bad) and Week 16 vs. the Browns.

Denver doesn’t have a lot of wins in their future either…at NE, MIA, KC before a Week 8 BYE. The Broncos could be (1-5/2-4) heading into their bye week and on their way to a 3-4 wins season at best.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Brett Rypien (19-31 for 242 yards, 2 TDs/3 INTs) desperately tried to give this game away. One of his TD passes was that joke to Jerry Jeudy (2-61-1/4) where the DB was about to fair catch the incoming duck but because Pierre Desir (8 tackles, 2 PDs, 1 INT TD) forgot how human hands worked on the play…Jeudy caught it through Desir’s hands and scored a long TD.

Without that should’ve-been-a-pick catch, Jeudy was one catch for 13 yards otherwise. Wonderful.

If the Broncos feel like they ‘got something’ with Rypien for another start, then bet your life on the Patriots Week 5.

 -- Tim Patrick (6-113-1/7) is store-brand Courtland Sutton for the Broncos now…the big body/target to throw prayers towards. I think he’ll be the leading Broncos receiver for the 2020 season, for whatever that means…likely a WR3.

 -- Sam Darnold (23-42 for 230 yards, 0 TD/0 INT, 6-84-1) will likely miss a game or two or more. Adam Gase has two reasons to hold Darnold out…

1) So he has an excuse as to why they are losing (look at all the injuries!). If Joe Flacco comes in and wins a game, then Gase can take credit.

2) Keep Darnold off the field…because it’s a constant reminder of how bad Darnold is, and that’s not blamed on Darnold – it’s now blamed on Gase. Less Darnold on your TV, less embarrassment for Gase.

Adam Gase isn’t getting fired in-season. The GM is hand picked by Gase. They will not go anywhere until both are fired together at the end of the season, if even then. They’re a package deal of sorts. Blame spawn of owner Woody Johnson for this mess, ultimately – and he can’t be fired, so this will never be fixed on purpose.

 -- I never thought Jeff Smith (7-81-0/9) would get a fair shake in the NFL…the former QB-turned-WR in college has been on the Jets practice squad since 2019 and didn’t get any play when the injuries started hitting the WR corps prior, but he got in this week and looked good.

Smith (a Boston College product) ran a 4.36 40-time with a 6.87 three-cone at his 2019 Pro Day…he has athleticism, and obviously some skills. He’s like a better Greg Ward on a worse offense/team.

Jamison Crowder (7-104-0/10) is going to dominate the targets here, and when Breshad Perriman returns – he’ll see good looks too (however ‘good’ they can be on the Jets). And remember…Joe Flacco knows Perriman from their time together with the Ravens. Could be a shift to Perriman over Crowder for more targeting IF Darnold is out.

Denzel Mims is about to return too. Smith is probably going to fade away from FF about as fast as Braxton Berrios (0-0-0/3) just did.  

 -- Note…Noah Fant (5-35-0/6) will miss time, and people will equivocate that Albert Okwuegbunam (DNP) is a easy/similar fill-in and that he has a connection with Drew Lock Played together, starred together at Missouri)…and that’s true on a certain level, BUT Vic Fangio has had no interest in playing him yet…so, I suspect Jake Butt will be the starter/player with Albert O. getting a few snaps here and there to begin his NFL journey.

…but, note, ‘Albert O.’ is quite the specimen for a TE prospect…a 4.49 runner. He might be good for a homerun ball/big play or two in a game right away. .

 -- DEN ILB Josey Jewell (10 tackles, 2 sacks, 2.5 TFLs) is FINALLY starting to play well…at least well for IDP.

First two games for Jewell 2020 = 4.0 total tackles

Last two games for Jewell 2020 = 6.5 total tackles, 1.0 sacks, 0.5 PDs

He’s back onto IDP radars stronger now.

 -- You know who looks good for Denver…rookie CB Michael Ojemuda (2 tackles, 1 PD). With Bradley Chubb getting healthy and Jewell playing a bit better and Ojemuda breaking through and A.J. Bouye set to return…the Broncos defense might be better in the days and weeks to come.

The problem is the schedule is brutal from here. Not a good/juicy matchup after Week 6 hosting Miami. Maybe Week 14 at Carolina is decent, that’s about it. Denver-DST is just a streamer option in desperation on decent/OK matchups but has hope/upside in desperation weeks if they get fully healthy.

 -- You might have seen Lions’ RB Ty Johnson was claimed by the Jets over the weekend. What’s odd about that is – the Jets already have a full backfield.

They have Gore-Perine-Ballage…all of whom Gase is down with. What do they need a 4th RB for?

When you consider that Ty would actually be their 5th RB, with Le’Veon Bell set to return this week…then someone needs to go. Hmmm…I wonder where Bell is getting traded to this week?

My top contenders for a Bell trade this week:

1) Chicago (sell Montgomery fast)

2) Steelers reunion

3) Chiefs (and then there will be a great CEH depression)

4) Washington (if they want to try and win that terrible division)

5) Giants (Freeman can be cut in an instant)

The Bears make WAY too much sense for this to happen ASAP.

Snap Counts of Interest:

73 = J Smith

68 = Hogan

65 = Crowder

10 = Cager

08 = Berrios

37 = Gore

30 = Ballage (wow)

10 = Perine

57 = D Hamilton

53 = Patrick

48 = Jeudy

14 = Hamler

R.C. Fischer

FFM

03 October 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 3: Game Analysis: Steelers 28, Texans 21

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

Re-watching this game made me feel better about the Houston Texans. It always feels like they are getting smoked in 2020 and their players are playing half-speed, but part of the issue is – the level of competition they’ve played is so good…but also, some of it is in our (my) mind…it makes sense to ‘think things’ when things aren’t going well. We have to blame something…if we ‘like’ the team/QB, in general. Like how the football media tries to blame the Jets surrounding for Sam Darnold collapsing – in their minds, it’s absolutely the reason Darnold is struggling…the Jets, not the fact he sucks. Most of the blame for Houston’s bad 2020 start, as a whole, is the schedule right now.

Houston actually led this game 21-17 at the half and led 21-20 going into the 4th-quarter…I thought they were on their way to a win. Pittsburgh put the clamps on Houston in the second half and the Steelers snuck out with a quality home win. I was impressed/fine with the way Houston played…the Steelers are just better…as were the Ravens…as were the Chiefs so far this year. If Houston had played the Bears’ schedule, they’d probably be (3-0) and everyone celebrating them.

Well, the schedule is finally going to let up a bit the next few weeks for Houston – MIN and JAX, a two-game homestand the next two weeks could find the Texans (2-3) heading to at TEN Week 6…where TEN might be (3-1), and if the Texans win that game (not a given) they could be (3-3) and a game behind Tennessee (and Indy) with 10 games left to go. Houston HAS to win their next two games or they’re in trouble. Then Week 6 at TEN is pretty much a must win as well.

The Steelers are on the opposite end of the spectrum…they are (3-0), and they also get a nice schedule the next two weeks (after their impromptu bye week) – hosting PHI and CLE. Week 7 is the changed scheduled game at TEN. It’s possible PIT will be (6-0) heading to play at BAL Week 8.

In the next/player section… I’m about to make a bigger proclamation, a more ‘all chips in’ move on a player…more ‘chips in’ than the heavy amount I already had in. I’m going all-in now, and it’s important to hear for Dynasty, so you’ll see that in a bit…

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- I’m going to start off with a quick analysis of four players from this game, guys in a lot of ‘question’ or ‘worry’ or ‘interest’ from interactions I’ve had lately…

1) David Johnson (13-23-1, 2-23-0/2)

DJ looks fantastic…I mean he really does. I’ve not seen him this quick/nimble in years. It’s great to see – just please stop playing the top run defenses in the NFL!!! Go look at his simple TD run from this game for evidence.

The Steelers are the #1 ranked run defense in the league and the Ravens are #9 (were top 5 before last week’s KC game)…both teams stuffed the Houston/DJ run game.

The next three weeks DJ faces run defenses: #25 MIN, #14 JAX, #28 TEN. DJ should re-launch again ahead.

I just wish NFL people weren’t so stupid…I mean, how do you purposefully acquire David Johnson and not have plays in the passing game for him. The very first play for Houston was a designed pass to DJ, but Watson was pressured and threw it at his feet. There was not an on-purpose pass to DJ the rest of the game…just a few ‘he’s open, I’m being rushed, I’ll throw it to him’ passes. Why Christian McCaffrey has a passing game built around him, but the much bigger David Johnson doesn’t is everything wrong with the NFL.

We can only hope it would dawn on the Texans staff to watch tape OF THEIR OWN guys and make a better plan. Likely, that will not happen. We’ll get the same stupid pass game involvement next week with Johnson as we do when Cincy perpetually wastes/does (little) with Joe Mixon in their passing game.

Coaching staffs spend weeks learning about their opponents and have not a clue of their own players over months of practicing…they just plug them into a role they have predetermined in their minds it seems.

2) Deshaun Watson (19-27 for 265 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT, 1-5-0)

I have ragged on Watson a bit during his first two weeks, and he is still not my favorite QB talent but he looked more like himself in this game and he played a really good first half, but didn’t have the juice to get the team over in the second half.

It’s a ‘tell’ that good teams are over-playing David Johnson and daring Watson to beat them…that’s not a good sign to a Houston franchise that just put $400M into a ‘B’ grade QB who will never be better than Patrick Mahomes or Lamar Jackson or Russell Wilson…or possibly Josh Allen and Kyler Murray on top of Dak Prescott…or even current-day, aged Aaron Rodgers or Big Ben.

With that said, Watson looked better this game than his prior two…but he’s still not running as much since getting paid -- 12 carries for 49 yards his first 3 games combined. That’s a HUGE fantasy problem. If you have Watson as your main QB for FF 2020…you’re getting beat, all season (so far and to come) by all the QBs that I listed above.

3) Rookie RB Anthony McFarland (6-42-0, 1-7-0/2).

McFarland made his NFL debut Week 3 and got in the game early and made some bigger/impact runs two times.

I like McFarland as a talent, but he didn’t look ‘special’ to me here…or ‘pending’ for a James Conner takeover, he’s just a relief back and passing game back type of option.

To my eye, it looked like McFarland has added bulk/muscle this offseason and that has slowed him down/made him less ‘twitchy’ – just a quick observation from his debut. It’s too early, limited time to make that official call…it’s just my gut feeling I’m sharing.

4) Jordan Akins (2-28-0/3)

The guy has one weak game, and everyone is ready to bail on him! Don’t.

Akins is playing a lot of snaps. The Texans leader in targets this game had five…it got spread around a lot against a swarming defense, so Akins’ 3 target game isn’t as huge a crisis, especially when Houston was held to a very low 23+ minutes of possession/just 47 offensive plays.

Akins looks fine and I still say he’s perhaps Watson’s favorite receiver overall right now…it’s where he goes when any WR throws breakdown.

Akins is going to be a TE1 over the season in PPR…as the Jimmy Graham’s and Alie-Cox’s fade away, Akins will ascend into the TE1 PPR group.

 -- I think I’m just going to put this out there, make it official, no holding back…

Chase Claypool (1-24-0/4) is the best rookie WR talent I’ve ever seen in my 10+ years of studying football. I’ve never seen someone so big be so smooth in movement, and he’s a very good catcher of the ball with all the physical tools (size, leaping ability, 40-time, etc.) you could ever want. I wasn’t this impressed by Julio Jones at first sight. However, Julio got a bigger/immediate push right away…but Claypool is getting to the point where he cannot be denied from starting.

What’s lacking in guaranteeing Claypool will be a star is his draft stock (he wasn’t supposed to be the best WR in the draft) – how long will it take before he gets the proper treatment/feels totally comfortable. It won’t fully come together until 2021, I suspect.

I thought Bryan Edwards was in the best spot to FF-shine in 2020, but now it might be Claypool’s talent just overrides everything, and Claypool is in a top place to pop some in 2020. From what I’ve seen, what we can all see of the team’s QBs – I’d trade Edwards for Claypool in a heartbeat.

If you play Dynasty…you want to get Claypool now before everyone realizes he’s just not a ‘promising’ WR…he’s not just ‘future good’ – he’s going to be a mega-star. Maybe even better than Diontae Johnson for fantasy, but both will be aces.

With Claypool’s long TD from Week 2 fading in memory, replaced by his one catch game here and then further valuation damage via the sudden BYE week – this is a good time to make a move, an investment. I know the person who owns him loves him -- but figure it out. Make a deal.

Again, if you ask for him straight up , and/or starting things out with… “What is going to take to get Claypool?” – then red flags and alarm bells will go off and you’ll have raised the price 2x+ and maybe not get it done. You’re going to have to sneak around and maybe do a multi-player deal to hide your ‘true desire’ in Dynasty leagues. Use 2021 picks if you have to.

In 2021, the Steelers will have two of the best WRs in the NFL…Diontae and Claypool. Having Big Ben in 6pts per pass TD leagues as your #2 QB isn’t a bad idea at all. Not in 2021, nor now in 2020.

In this game, Ben tried to launch it deep to Claypool 2-3 times, but one was a P.I. on the defense, the others were not open but Ben threw where only CC might have a miracle chance to get. Ben already knows what he has in Claypool…I wouldn’t be surprised if Claypool scores 8-10+ TDs this year, even if most of them are in the 2nd-half of the season…and with CC not starting/playing as a #4 WR.

Claypool’s one catch in this game, was a quick WR screen type play…and the moves he made after the catch were sick for someone his size.

Guess which WR played the most snaps in this game for the Steelers…a game where it was close to the end? You’ll see at the end of this report…

In 2021, the Steelers will let JuJu walk to the Jets and they will have the best WR trio in the NFL with Diontae-Claypool-Washington, and the presence of Claypool helps Diontae’s performance a lot…and vice-versa.

It may take until 2021 for Claypool to really pop, and there may be weeks ahead to make your move with prices down but CC is only getting better and he’s going to make plays/have games where his owners aren’t going to want to trade him…so beware being late to the party.

The Steelers have, arguably, the best defense in the NFL and the best WR depth chart, and a veteran/Super Bowl winning QB – they are a threat to win the Super Bowl for sure.

 -- The Steelers might have the best defense in the NFL, but will the schedule help or hurt this DST ahead?

Week 8 and 12 with Baltimore worries you. Week 9 at DAL is not great. Week 14 vs. BUF is now a worry.

The Steelers run defense rules…their passing defense is good-not-great so far.

It’s a great defense that you’ll need to mix and match on schedule perhaps, but we’ll see Week 7 at TEN if it’s a ‘tell’ on starting or worrying about them vs. BAL Week 8.

Snap Counts of Intertest:

61 = Claypool

58 = JuJu

49 = Washington

19 = Diontae

53 = Conner

15 = Snell

10 = McFarland

45 = David Johnson (96% of the snaps…very low snap count game for HOU)

32 = Akins

24 = Fells

R.C. Fischer

FFM

03 October 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 3: Game Analysis: Browns 34, Football Club 20

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

For all you who are wanting to take the points with the Browns over Dallas this week because ‘Dallas sucks’ and ‘the Browns aren’t playing bad football’ – just note: The Browns were not the better team here. Washington led 20-17 after three quarters, warts and all…and losing Chase Young in-game early. It was two terrible 4th-quarter Dwayne Haskins’ turnovers that gave the game away.

The Browns are dreadful to watch except Nick Chubb is a majestic to watch run the ball (against a terrible group of linebackers).

The Browns are now (2-1) but they are getting ready to get wiped off the ‘good vibes’ landscape. They could lose their next 5-6 games in a row. Tough schedule + they aren’t very good – sure, they looked OK-ish against Cincy and Washington, big deal.

The Football Club blew a golden opportunity to take a commanding one game lead in the NFC East. They will get obliterated by the Ravens this week and change QBs for Week 6 – likely Alex Smith, if not Kyle Allen.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- If Alex Smith takes over…we won’t know what to expect (because how ‘able’ is he?). But I assume if he is being 53-man rostered, and not put on I.R. for weeks or for the year – then he must be ready to go. It’s a great human-interest story WFC can rally behind and go win the division…if Smith has any juice left.

Assuming Smith is still solid…everything on offense gets a bit better upon a change (that will happen Week 6).

It would get better with Kyle Allen too; anything is better than Haskins.

 -- It’s not getting any better with Baker Mayfield (16-23 for 156 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT). Baker still has talent. I see flashes of old Baker now and then, but this offense/passing game is dreadful for him and OBJ is absolutely killing him. No QB-WR tandem has worse chemistry than Baker-OBJ.

Baker is ‘playing well’, supposedly/that’s because they’ve won two games. He isn’t even averaging over 200 passing yards per game this year.

I want nothing to do with him in Cleveland, not for redraft or Dynasty. His career is in peril and even a change of teams could be a 1-2 year makeover. No, thanks. Too many other QBs to ride with.

 -- This Cleveland offense beating up Cincy and Washington isn’t fooling me, that’s why I think you’re OK to explore a trade ultra-high on Nick Chubb (19-108-2, 1-2-0/1) in PPR. Not because he isn’t a talent, but that he just beat up the #31 and #21 run defenses for 2 TDs each game…and that will halt when he has to face top run defenses Weeks 5 (IND) and 6 (PIT) and Week 4 vs. DAL may not be great either. He comes off the field most passing situations for Kareem Hunt – it’s a tenuous situation where he’s trading like a top 3-5 overall RB for fantasy…but could fall to RB 1.5-2.0 the rest of the way, easily (in PPR).

 -- J.D. McKissic (5-15-0, 3-37-0/4) still looks like the best Washington RB to me. He started again, is playing the majority of the snaps but Haskins can’t get him the ball as often as he should. Haskins takes one look downfield and fires…he doesn’t have time to dump passes off. Kyle Allen and Alex Smith happily do that.

 -- Rookie WR Isaiah Wright (4-29-0/4) is a talented football player. I’m surprised he’s leapt Steve Sims in the starting lineup, but Sims doesn’t work well with Haskins’ style. Wright is a hard-nosed big play guy who has a serious ‘drops’ problem from time-to-time. I hope he works out, but this is a big hit on Sims’ career…the fact the new regime pulled the plug so fast – unless Sims’ toe was bad, and he tried to play through it. I don’t think so, I think they are rolling dice haphazardly hoping something clicks with Haskins…but it’s not the WR’s issue.

 -- Montez Sweat (4 tackles, 1 sack, 2.5 TFLs, 3 QB hits) fared pretty well with Chase Young lost in-game. Sweat is coming into his own as a top pass rusher talent. He should get 10+ sacks easy this year.

Snap Counts of Interest:

34 = Chubb

29 = Hunt

54 = Hooper

40 = H Bryant

63 = McLaurin

45 = Inman

29 = I Wright

23 = Sims

18 = Gandy-Golden

34 = McKissic

25 = Gibson

R.C. Fischer

FFM

02 October 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 3: Game Analysis: Patriots 36, Raiders 20

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

This was a tight ball game at halftime…13-10 Patriots, and it was a mild slugfest. Then, I don’t know what happened…the Raiders started making some gaffes and the Patriots muddled around but capitalized. The stats were pretty even, the play seemed pretty even, but three Raiders’ fumbles gave the Pats a time of possession edge and a comfortable win.

Belichick took out Darren Waller and stuffed Josh Jacobs, and the Raiders don’t have much of an answer when that happens.

Las Vegas was coming off an emotional MNF win, and on a short week going to NE they lost. Not a crime. The problem for LV is this schedule stretch ahead continues to be rough. They get Buffalo Week 4 and then they go at KC Week 5. The Raiders are about to be (2-3) and swirling a bit when they host TB Week 7. The schedule loosens after that. We see in the 8-10 win range, with 9 the most likely.

The Patriots are in a rough schedule stretch as well…at KC, DEN (easy), bye, SF, at BUF. That Week 8 with Buffalo is going to be a war. Week 10 hosting BAL will be no treat either. The Pats season/AFC East title streak is kinda on the line Week 8 vs. Buffalo. The Patriots could be hard-pressed to get to 9 wins, much less 10 wins. They will likely be (3-3) facing (5-2) Buffalo Week 8…and the Bills could deal a death blow to NE there.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- What to make of the Patriots sudden RB surge/mess? Should you want any of them?

Rex Burkhead (6-49-2, 7-49-1/10) is now a god. He’s nearly doubled Joe Mixon’s fantasy PPG through three weeks…let that sink in. Most of it coming from this game, obviously. Can you trust Burkhead now?

No, not really. It’s Rex Burkhead. This is what he does. He may score another TD this week…he’s solid, but there is a sea of Patriots RBs to begin with and the tide is coming in with James White and Damien Harris about to return. If you need a flyer for Week 4, digging deep…Rex is a name.

James White back instantly undermines Burkhead more than Sony Michel (9-117-0)…the 3rd-down role and all. It’s what would scare me on Rex.

I’d be selling Michel, partly on White back…partly on Rex so solid, and partly on Damien Harris getting active. Damien Harris could be the Patriots’ Darrell Henderson…and you know what I’m saying, so drink that in for a moment.

Don’t drink for too long because Henderson had easier RBs to put in his rear view, as he has already. For Harris to become DHendo 2.0, he would have to dispatch Rex and Michel to the bench and 70/30 split with James White to even have a chance. Not going to happen.

Belichick cannot be counted on for fantasy RBs for long…he changes up like a great MLB pitcher. He has change ups he’ll throw on 3-0 counts. He might throw an Eephus pitch too. Damien Harris’s odds of getting a chance to take over the whole backfield and go on to FF goodness is very slim…BUT he can throw a wrench into everyone else’s touches.

Who will be the best Patriots’ FF RB for Week 4? Hellifiknow.

Don’t even start with J.J. Taylor (11-43-0) – I do know that answer is ‘No’.

 -- In the battle of Julian Edelman (2-23-0/6) style WRs…Edelman lost decisively to Hunter Renfrow (6-84-1/9).

I still like Edelman for PPR ahead, but I also know the second you lean on Cam for passing game output he’ll break your heart. See: Weeks 1 and 3 of this season.  Week 2 looked so amazing, I wanted in…but then you see Week 3…and I’m like, ‘No, thanks.’

Renfrow is playing his Edelman-styled arse off. He is so quality at that role. My hat’s off to him. Didn’t think he could stand out in the NFL, but unlike a lot of ‘gets targets because it’s there/open or in need’ WRs like Greg Ward or Russell Gage or Isaiah Ford – Renfrow is actually good+ at his craft. When the four-letter word WRs of the PPR-moment fade away (Ward-Gage-Ford) in weeks/seasons ahead – Renfrow will still be a quality/entrenched/respected NFL WR a la Cole Beasley.

Now, the Raiders don’t want to pass…and don’t want to pass to WRs by choice – but suddenly they have to. Teams are stacking the run and playing Waller as a WR. Renfrow has a window…the guy Carr is most comfortable throwing to at the moment (outside of Waller).

 -- It would the Raiders’ passing game if Bryan Edwards (2-48-0/3) and Henry Ruggs were not hurt/out. Speaking of Edwards. His play he got hurt on here…another flash of the looming greatness he might have. I’m very impressed with the total five catches Edwards has this year. The problem is he has just five catches this year.

Las Vegas will likely get more balanced as the season wears on and when they get a new QB in 2021, but for now Edwards is in a storage box in mothballs.

 -- N’Keal Harry (2-34-0/4) fell off like the whole Pats passing game did. I still maintain…something is wrong with Harry; something doesn’t look right/feel right. He’s there, he’ll get targets and maybe he’ll get better but any one of Bryan Edwards’s catches this year showed more talent than anything Harry has done this year.

I thought Damiere Byrd (3-27-0/3) would have a big play in this game because of the Raiders’ cheating up secondary, but the winner of the ying-yang of that was…Cam is a weak passing QB, so he didn’t take advantage.

 -- The Patriots-DST is somewhat overrated. Since they stopped playing a gift schedule halfway through last season, they’ve not been a strong top 12 FF-DST. They got a fumble in the end zone TD here to help pump their FF scoring but otherwise this defense is good-not-great…they ebb and flow with the schedule, like every DST in the NFL now.

You want a ‘good’ defense with a favorable schedule. The days of the ‘great’/holy DST are over in 2020. With legalized holding and ‘letting them play’, scoring is through the roof. DST scoring is down. You can really get over (like last week) if you have the right DST playing the right team. The right DST is a massive, secret advantage in a time when many good defenses/DSTs are giving up 25-30+ points every week and scoring lowly for FF.

The Pats have at KC, DEN, bye, SF, at BUF, at NYJ, BAL the next six games…useful two of 6 weeks. After that: at HOU, ARI, at LAC, at LAR…that’s not great either. The Pats-DST is a hard hold waiting for Week 5 and Week 9 (which will be awesome for them). I’d hold for Week 5 (use something else Week 4) and then ditch out for better if you find it.

Snap Counts of Interest:

32 = Burkhead

26 = Michel

15 = JJ Taylor

50 = Agholor

39 = Renfrow

27 = Zay Jones

24 = Edwards

R.C. Fischer

FFM

02 October 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 3: Game Analysis: Packers 37, Saints 30

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

This game is remembered as a Packers definitive win, but it was back-and-forth until the final few minutes. Every time the Packers took a lead, the Saints scored right back to tie…until GB put it away in the 4th-quarter. All the important stats/indicators were close except the Saints had a key turnover and had 8 penalties to GB’s 2 calls.

I’m not suggesting the Packers didn’t win, or weren’t the better team…they were. I’m just noting these two teams are both good and played a game where Green Bay edged it out because Aaron Rodgers is better than Drew Brees and Allen Lazard was the best WR on the field for either team…and the Saints didn’t realize it for a half, but by then a lot of damage was done.

Speaking of Allen Lazard…the very last piece of this report will be on Lazard, the injury, and the search for healthy WRs for Week 4. I will go through every NFL team at the end, commenting on the WR hopes and dreams. I’ll clear a few simple player notes ahead of that and then dig into that pressing issue.

The Packers are (3-0) and host ATL on MNF…so, (4-0) here we come. Then they get a schedule break (again) -- with a huge NFC game ahead Week 6 at TB…the Packers have a bye wedged in-between to rest/prepare. We’ll see how great Green Bay really is Week 6 at TB and Week 9 at SF. If they win both or split those two games, they’re likely headed to a #1 seed…which at Green Bay in the winter will be a huge edge for them.

The Saints have fallen to (1-2). Their schedule lets up a bit for the next five weeks before they draw at TB rematch Week 9 and Week 10 v. SF. If Tampa Bay loses at TB in Week 9…the possibility they lose the NFC South to the Bucs is very real.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- I’m getting a lot of Robert Tonyan (5-50-1/5) questions this week, which is good/what I live for. I’ve been a fan, hoping he’d get more play. This was a sweet stat line, but I didn’t see anything indicating anything special or a shift in the offense on the re-watch.

The Packers ran a little TE quick block and then drag along the LOS in front of the QB for a simple dump pass and turn up field. The Saints rarely covered it, so it was there all game – thus the Packers, out of nowhere, had 9 catches/104 yards/and 2 TDs on 10 targets to three TEs combined this game. It was there…it was a wrinkle…the Saints were poorly schemed all game…and we had a moment.

I don’t see a big shift to Rodgers firing missiles to Tonyan as a weapon ahead. He’s as random as any other starting TE in a good offense who is not in the top 3 of the QBs target list.

 -- Marquez Valdes-Scantling (1-5-0/4) could matter this week/for a while…with the Lazard injury, you figure the non-Adams WR option should get some work, but when has that been true the past couple of years with Rodgers?

With Adams back, it’s all Davante and Aaron Jones and everyone else randomly. MVS could have a 15+ point FF game as well as an under 5 pointer…if Adams is back.

Against Atlanta, you have to like the 15+ side.

 -- Both of the Saints starting CBs are battling injury right now.

If the Saints lose Marshon Lattimore but not Janoris Jenkins this Week 4, then Kenny Golladay gets a bump, as does Marvin Jones.

If the Saints lose Janoris Jenkins but not Lattimore, Golladay is a start but sketchy. Marvin Jones gets a bump.

If the Saints lose both Lattimore and Jenkins this week…it’s looking good for KG and Marvin, and not looking good for the Saints-DST or the Saints -4.0.

 -- GB ILB Ty Summers (9 tackles) played his first real ‘starting’ role in the NFL this game and responded nicely. He’s a throwback middle linebacker that will get a bunch of tackles – a high quality tackler who likes to play the run. He stood out to me last preseason…he might be getting his chance now.

I’d need to see him start/play the most ILB snaps again to be really sure he’s happening/starting/IDP-worthy option ahead.

 -- OK, Allen Lazard (6-146-1/8)…

No sense getting into an analysis of his play – he broke out with another ‘star’ moment and then got taken away from us, like every WR in FFM-land it seems. Parris…Courtland…Chark…Diontae…now Lazard. Sure, raggedy-ass Marvin Jones and T.Y. Hilton and A.J. Green are fit as a fiddle/not hurt, but the great young emerging stars we found as part of our heavy RB plan…those WRs hit mostly and then got hurt/taken away from us.

We’ve gone from ‘my RBs are killing me’ to ‘my WRs are killing me’. Only…this time you’re right. Remember back when you were always chasing RBs off the waiver wire…praying for anyone getting touches? Now it’s happening with WRs, but in this case…we got options…plenty…we hope. That’s the reason we wanted to go jumbo-RB out of the redraft, because of the WR depth of the pool.

Well, here we are.

Don’t tell me (this week)…”I have the worst luck, of course all my WRs are hurt. God hates me!”

May I remind you who the top WRs taken in the draft were this year? In order, through 3 weeks…

Michael Thomas (out 2 games)

Davante Adams (out 1.5 games)

Tyreek Hill (doing fine)

Julio Jones (dud Week 2 with injury, out Week 3)

DeAndre Hopkins (may be out Week 4)

Chris Godwin (out for weeks)

Kenny Golladay (missed first 2 games)

Mike Evans (master of the 1-yard TD)

Adam Thielen (doing good)

DJ Moore (WR1 bust)

OBJ (WR1 bust)

Allen Robinson (could’ve gotten cheap in some places after Week 2)

What’s that…two WRs who have been good/great for three weeks so far in 2020? Everybody has issues right now.

Wishing you would have drafted other WRs earlier is not the salvation you think it is. Everyone is dealing with injuries – this is where we can shine, out-scouting, out-timing, out-grinding our opponents. You may face the healthy team this week and get beat…but at least you have an excuse. Likely, you’ll face a team with random events happening to them too. Let’s get it on!!!!

Winning Fantasy Football is a three-part formula…

33.33% = Smart scouting before and in-season

33.33% = Smart management…you can know all the smart players but not panic buying high or selling low at the first hint of an issue that you blow up into a mountain that was a molehill, including wild pinata swings at your starting lineup setting based on what happened last week – that can erase all the good scouting in one fell swoop.  

33.33% = Luck. Did you face the Davante Adams team Week 1 and got destroyed, or faced them Week 3 and crushed them? Luck tends to even out. A bad schedule Week 1 or 2 gets made up for as we go. But panicking because of a bad schedule Week 1-2 or a bad lineup setting, etc. – that’s not luck, that’s mismanagement.

Yes, it’s a WR crisis right now…and ‘no’ it’s not fun/it’s frustrating. But every season brings this…either at RB or QB or whatever. Most every team gets hit with it at some point. How anyone responds to it – that’s the game here. It’s easy to set-and-forget. The actual chess ‘game’ part of this, the real fun is…sifting through little known WRs and trying to find a savior, just for a week. Or landing that DST ahead on smart schedule outlooks. This is the fun part…the management of it. The mental challenge. It’s also fun having a dominating team that’s healthy and destroying everyone but in lieu of that…the next round of fun is trying to spin the Rubik’s Cube to solve it better than your opponents spinning that same Cube.

There are WR options this week, we just need to find them…the ones who will work this week (and may never again or not for weeks). Let’s go to work.

I’m going to go through every team and give a pitch for certain lesser-name WRs, and you can look over them all and decide which gamble you like. They are all gambles. I’m going to pitch you 15-25+ of them…don’t ask me over and over which one to play over another…because look at the projections – they’re all grouped together. They all have a case; they all have fears. Picks 2-3 options you like and ask your dog or flip a coin to pick one…

ARI = If DeAndre Hopkins is out, I go from ‘hope’ on Andy Isabella to ‘like’. And if Hopkins and Kirk are out, I go from ‘like’ to LOVE on Izzy. If Hopkins out and Kirk in…then he’s a legit play with Izzy as well…and it will be confusing which might be better.

ATL = Olamide Zaccheaus is a long shot ONLY if Julio is out.

BAL = I would try to avoid low volume passing games with the lesser-targeted WRs to try and find WR relief this week.

CAR = Curtis Samuel isn’t the worst idea in the world. Read my CAR-LAC report. He’s going to have the ball in his hands 8+ times this week. That ain’t nuthin’

CHI = Too difficult to guess Mooney v Miller.

CIN = Tee Higgins is a name, but he might draw C.J. Henderson and it be a problem. A.J. Green is ‘shot’ but plays.

CLE = nothing

DAL = I wouldn’t try to guess Cedrick Wilson for a repeat, but you could have worse ideas looking at the bottom of the barrel.

DEN = I shoulda stuck with my Tim Patrick instincts, he’s poor man’s Courtland Sutton now for DEN…but Rypien is a turnover waiting to happen, I worried he wouldn’t get the ball to his team more than the other team. He tried hard to give it away 5+ times last night.

GB = Marquez Valdes-Scantling has as much hope as anyone this week facing ATL.

HOU = Brandin Cooks and Randall Cobb are in good matchups this week.

IND = I guess Zach Pascal could be OK. Not buying Daurice Fountain. I’m not a big Philip Rivers fan right now. I’m not sure how much I love TYH this week either.

JAX = Keelan Cole is in a good spot. He has been good for two of his 3 weeks this year. Don’t turn your nose at him because he didn’t dance for you Week 3 TNF.

KC = Mecole Hardman could always score a TD…but if you’re gambling on ‘fast guy makes play amidst his low snap/target counts’ then go with a real talent in Andy Isabella.

LAC = ‘No’ to Guyton/Hill.

LAR = ‘No’ to Reynolds/Jefferson

MIA = The reason Isaiah Ford is projecting well is a great matchup with a rookie slot corner and a Seattle team hemorrhaging passing totals. Preston Williams is a hope too, but he gets Quinton Dunbar…and that’s not great.

MIN = No to Beebe, yes to Justin Jefferson…but that’s not breaking news.

NE = Byrd/Harry are flyers that the Pats get in a shootout with KC.

NO = Tre’Quan Smith if Thomas were out…is something, but not exciting. Ditto Emm Sanders.

LAR = Daniel Jones casts a shadow over passing upside numbers for the WRs, but Golden Tate is something to use but not exciting at all.

NYJ = Remember when I said Jeff Smith? No…because I forgot he was on the Jets; much less thought he’d ever play in a real NFL game?

LV = I’m down with Hunter Renfrow this week. Down the bottom of the barrel: Agholor is not crazy; he seems to be in sync with Carr and Ag will start but also faces Tre’Davious White likely…nor is Zay Jones crazy for a revenge TD.  

PHI = Hightower is playing, so that’s something. Ward will get a lot of looks but has tough coverage this week with CB K’Waun Williams.

PIT-TEN = Thanks stupid COVID…I have to bench Diontae, Claypool, Davis, and Trump for this week.

SF = Aiyuk is my only interest, but it all gets sketchy if Deebo plays.

SEA = no one besides the obvious main WRs here.

TB = Scotty Miller is questionable and gets Desmond King if he goes, not easy…but I like what I see with Brady-Scotty. Rookie Tyler Johnson would be a surprise starter for TB possibly if Miller out…and he could come out of nowhere, but too much of a long shot to have confidence in.

WAS = You want something tied to Haskins? Sims isn’t starting. Rookie Isaiah Wright might have a moment but don’t bet on it.

Good luck in your searches. The ‘truth’ is out there…

Now is a good time to try to take advantage of the WR panicked in trade if you’re in a position to do so. 

R.C. Fischer

FFM

02 October 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 3: Game Analysis: Bengals 23, Eagles 23

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

The shame of this game is…you know that they’re only a half a game out of first place still!

No…not the Eagles. I mean, the Bengals…if they were in the NFC East.

We’ve reached a point in the football universe where the Bengals are better than the Eagles, Giants, or Redskins. Bill Parcells and Joe Gibbs are rolling over in their graves that they are not technically in.

The Eagles ran for nearly 4x the yards the Bengals did. They out gained the Bengals overall. They dominated time of possession over the Bengals. The dominated thew Bengals on 3rd-downs. And, yet, Philly was lucky to tie this game. This is a Carson Wentz problem on top of the GM has supplied the team with terrible WRs and thus no depth at WR. Did they ban making trades in the NFL? Why are the NFL GMs so scared to make trades for things they need? It’s 32 of them…or 31 excluding Sean McDermott. How is Philly not on the horn making some kind of low level or high level WR trade?

It’s about to get very dark in Philadelphia. They have at SF, at PIT, BAL the next three weeks. The Eagles will very likely be (0-6-1) heading to face the Giants Week 7 on a Thursday night. The thing is, if they can beat NYG Week 7 and get to (1-6-1), they might only be a game or so out of first place when they host the Cowboys Week 8.

The Bengals are (0-2-1). Joe Burrow is getting hit all over the place. Yet, with an awful O-Line, weak coaching staff, and rookie QB…the Bengals are (0-2-1) but not far off of (3-0), oddly. They’ve had a chance to win every game late and haven’t. First win might Week 4 hosting JAX, but if it isn’t…they may not win a full game until Week 11-12 with Washington and NYG.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- What’s wrong with Joe Mixon (17-49-0, 2-16-0/3)?

Nothing wrong with him that I see. I keep looking for evidence of an issue, but he looks terrific to my eye. Speed is there. Cutting ability is off the charts as usual…he’s just getting no help from his O-Line and then is out on many passing situations. Why Zac Taylor goes with/throws to Gio Bernard (3-55-0/3) a lot in passing downs and not Mixon…I have no idea, but Zac Taylor isn’t winning any Coach of the Year awards anytime soon. Taylor would never be considered for an SEC head coaching job, but somehow, he’s an NFL head coach. The Bengals are going to be the Bengals…

Joe Mixon has rushed for 5 TDs in his last 21 games in the NFL. He has 3 receiving TDs in that span.

Under Zac Taylor, 19 games so far, Mixon has hit 15+ PPR points in a fantasy game 8 times…none in 2020. Mixon has hit 20+ PPR fantasy points in a game twice in that span, once in a meaningless Week 17 game.

Mixon looks and feels like an RB1, a guy to ‘buy low’…but the results say, time and time again…you’re getting a nice RB2 with limited upside (not on talent, but on situation). If you’re going to buy low…it has to be LOW. He’s not who you think he is…and Burrow has yet to make him FF better.

The fact that he could ‘pop’ because of his talent, and because this offense has more juice…that makes him a nice gamble for a (0-3) type FF team in desperation right now…hoping for that pop. The odds say it’s not coming anytime soon, but the talent says it might.

 -- Jalen Hurts (2-8-0) came in for two wildcat runs. His first tote was a nice 8-yard run. Hurts looks like he added another 5 pounds of muscle since college. He looks like Jonathan Taylor playing QB.

When Hurts takes over for Wentz, in-season, my guess around Week 7-8…he’s going to be a 100+ yards a game rushing threat. A power runner the likes of which, at QB, no one has ever seen.

The minute they turn things over to Hurts, the Eagles should trade Zach Ertz wherever they can get the best deal. But the NFL is too afraid to trade…they’re like half your league mates in fantasy. Petrified of making a mistake to the point that doing nothing is more soothing.

It may not be coincidence that the Eagles drafted Hurts and haven’t given into Ertz contract desires preseason. Someone may have seen this ripple effect of Carson Wentz’s downfall coming, and they stealthily prepared for it ahead.

 -- While we still have Wentz at QB, he has no WRs to throw to…they’re all hurt or suck or both.

Greg Ward (8-72-1/11) is his most reliable thing right now. It will work for PPR for a bit (until Hurts takes over).

With Dallas Goedert out, I suspect Zach Ertz (7-70-0/10) will see between 8 and 417 targets this week.

Alshon Jeffrey might be ‘shot’, and we don’t know it yet, if he can even get onto the field.

John Hightower (2-19-0/3) is not ready for any of this…but at least he is there.

Where is the great J.J. Arcega-Whiteside? Where is Harold Carmichael when you need him?

 -- None of the Week 4 Eagles starting WRs could even make the Bengals roster/WR depth chart…that’s how bad things are in Philly. The Bengals have good WRs and Joe Burrow (31-44 for 312 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) makes things look like child’s play in just three NFL starts. If he had any protection at all he’d set every rookie QB record there ever was…he still probably will.

Burrow has thrown for back-to-back 300+ yard games and 5 TDs/0 INT in that span. He is the #10 fantasy (4pts) QB on the young season already….and he’s just getting comfortable with his weapons.

Speaking of his weapons…

Tyler Boyd (10-125-0/13) has emerged as Burrow’s guy…this connection will be choppy all year based on matchups, but it has a chance to be a PPR WR1 year for Boyd.

Tee Higgins (5-40-2/9) looks way better than I ever thought he’d be. He has issues getting open, and the more defenses recognize him the more he can get shutoff, but when open he is showing very good hands. I’ve been impressed, but I had a very low opinion going in.

A.J. Green (5-36-0/6), as I said two weeks ago, is ‘shot’. He’s a 3rd/4th-option guy now. It’s Boyd-Higgins ahead of him.

Drew Sample’s (1-1-0/1) debut as a starter was a real ‘winner’. I wouldn’t dismiss him away just yet. He should be a solid TE2/bye week flex guy as we go.

 -- The Eagles sacked Joe Burrow 8 times, but that’s on the Bengals more than anything. Cincy is now the most sacked offense in the NFL…load up your pass rushers for IDP against them right now. Week 5 CIN at BAL and Week 6 CIN at IND might get Burrow killed…and he’ll still probably find a way to 300+ yards passing

Snap Counts of Interest:

78 = Hightower

76 = Ward

39 = Burnett

28 = DJax

18 = JJAW

71 = Sanders

13 = Scott

03 = Hurts

52 = Mixon

18 = Gio

57 = Higgins

55 = AJG

54 = Boyd

25 = Tate

16 = Mk Thomas

64 = Sample

09 = C Carter

R.C. Fischer

FFM

02 October 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 3: Game Analysis: Panthers 21, Chargers 16

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

What a bizarre game this was…

Because this was a game of two low fanbase/low interest teams, we kinda saw the ‘upset’ and some turnovers and a rookie QB for LAC…and it just seemed like ‘one of those games’. In reality, the Chargers had four turnovers (to CAR none) and eight penalties (to CAR’s 3) – and they still should have won the game on the final play.

On the last play of the game, they had a perfectly set up hook-and-ladder play where on the very last play from midfield, Justin Herbert fired the ball into the left-middle to a wide-open Keenan Allen, who caught it and ran to the center and a whole prevent defense followed him but then he pitched it to Austin Ekeler who, by design, was coming full speed the other direction for the pitch. It was a wide-open field to run and score to win but Allen pitched high and Ekeler muffed it, and...ballgame.

The Chargers threw for more yards (319-221), the rushed for more yards (177-81), they held a 31-29 time of possession, got more 1st-downs 26-14, and converted an astounding 60% of their 3rd-downs (while holding CAR to 25%)…and yet it’s an ‘L’ for the Chargers.

The Chargers beat Kansas City Week 2 but lost the game. Ditto here. The Chargers should/could be (3-0)…but also lucky they didn’t lose Week 1 to CIN and are (0-3) today. Under Justin Herbert, they should be (2-0) with a win over the defending champs – this team is SO MUCH better under Herbert.

LAC is playing for their lives, in a sense, the next two weeks…two very tough road games at TB, then at NO. They run a risk of falling to (1-4), but then their schedule turns, and they could wind up (8-8) or even (9-7) with some luck on their side. But with Anthony Lynn at the helm…luck is always against them, he defeats luck. Chris Harris being out is the other killer at this time. We bet they end up under 8 wins, which is a crime…but they chose their coach, not me.

Carolina is now (1-2), a nice win…but a fraud win. The Panthers are a tough out but still sloppy/helter-skelter. They have a ‘prove it’ game against Arizona this week…I think they’ll lose beyond the spread because they should have lost this game and been (0-3) and had everyone down on them with a worse point spread v. ARI.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Justin Herbert (35-49 for 330 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) looks excellent for a rookie thrown into a garbage Anthony Lynn offense. Herbert is saving Lynn from himself. The last two weeks, without Herbert, with Tyrod -- they would have lost by 2-3 scores each game.

BUT…

Anthony Lynn is smarter than you or me…you see, the two games they just lost (really they won but blew both) is Justin Herbert’s fault and the losses are a cover to get back to glorious Tyrod.

1) Justin Herbert is a really good-looking QB prospect with all the tools and then some. He is not fazed by any of this.

2) Herbert is like a better but less-gritty 2020 Josh Allen --- tall, huge arm, can run very well, can make all the throws.

3) Herbert will not put up huge numbers in this offense, yet. He’s getting good yards but not the TDs. He’s not being cut loose fully. The games have warranted more Herbert passing as the game went on, so he’s getting yards…but he’ll have a 200-250 yards passing game with 1 TD in a win soon. And that will drive his price down some more.

4) When Tyrod replaces Herbert for a game or two coming up…and if Herbert’s last game (before benched) is a low grade FF game – dynasty people, make a move if you need a young QB prospect for the future, while the price is somewhat down (off a weak game, losing games, Tyrod in, etc.).

I don’t know how far off Joe Burrow’s value/upside Herbert is, but it’s not as far as you think.

 -- Here’s my ranking of the best-looking, most important Carolina WRs to the team/Teddy…

#3) D.J. Moore (2-65-0/4)…two out of 3 games have been weak for FF so far. He’s not the pitch-and-catch guy or the go-to in this new offense. He’s just out there, and I see him working more as an outside receiver than any slot work. He’s not a bust, he’s just stuck in a weak FF situation for production…my fear all along.

He’s just not that good. He’s good, but not the guy everyone was hailing as ‘great’. He’s definitely NOT the main target for Teddy.

It’s not helping that he’s dropping an easy pass per game.

#2) Curtis Samuel (4-45-0/4, 4-7-0)…this may have been Samuel’s best game as a Panther, and he didn’t do a ton for FF in it.

The team got the ball to him on purpose -- handoffs as a tail back and short passes. They aren’t designing plays for DJM, but they are to get Samuel touches specifically.

What was so great for Samuel here was how tough he played. He’s just a little water bug/wiry looking RB/WR, but he made some moves after the catch and he was so tough to bring down, fighting for extra yards. I think this might mark the game where Samuel became more endeared to the staff then ‘out to lunch’/possibly pouting (it seems to me) D.J. Moore.

#1) Robby Anderson (5-55-0/5)…clearly the guy Teddy has the best chemistry with and RA was working the slot a lot here. It was a tough matchup with the LAC coverage, but Teddy was in sync with him on every throw. Anderson is running purposed get-open routes that Teddy is staring at as a 1st-option. Sometimes they let Robby go another way to take the tough coverage with him to open space for other things.

It’s a smart offense they’re running in Carolina…just Teddy is not the real answer. Still very erratic with his easy throws. When Carolina lands their future QB…this offense will be light’s out in 2021 or 2022.

*Not on the list = Ian Thomas (1-9-0/2). I’m not sure Teddy realizes Ian is on the team.

 -- Mike Davis (13-46-0, 8-45-1/9) had a nice game. I knew it was coming because no one had more news/human interest stories and support/love talk from the coaches this season than Davis going into this week. Davis deserves all that he’s getting right now. And it means we ride it hard for fantasy until it’s over/CMC returns.

I just want to note, Reggie Bonnafon (2-16-0) came in for a few plays, got two handoffs back-to-back, and then disappeared. He played 2 snaps.

Let me just say this – in those two carries, I can see ‘it’. A potential star is looming there. I don’t know when, I don’t know how, I don’t if he’ll ever get the chance. But he looks majestic running the ball. It’s Matt Forte all over again. I want to see more to be sure.

I need to see more of his work in real NFL games, but what I’ve seen over the past 3+ years – this guy has something special potentially.

I think that because Carolina suddenly was playing from ahead (a gift from LAC), that they stayed with the experienced guys to get the win. So, Bonnafon dipped in early and then stayed out. If Carolina is getting whacked in games ahead, I bet Bonnafon gets more work…and then they may never be able to put him on the practice squad again.

The fact any team could claim him, as Carolina puts him up and down off the Practice Squad (using the COVID rules) is why I know scouting is weak in the NFL. How are the Jets not claiming him? He could be the Giants starting RB right now. At least take a free look!

ARRRAWRGRGAAGGRG, I don’t want to think about it.

 -- Keenan Allen (13-132-1/19) + Hebert = WR1

Keenan Allen + Tyrod = WR3

End o’ story.

 -- LAC LB Kyzir White (11 tackles, 1.5 TFLs) has been starting the past two weeks, after not starting/playing much Week 1…I didn’t realize he was back starting last week.

White is averaging 6.5 total tackles, 0.75 TFLs per game the past two weeks. He can be a 6+ tackle a game guy easy.

Not good news for Kenneth Murray’s (5 tackles, 1 TFL) IDP upside tallies.

 -- The Chargers-DST is a good/great unit/FF play, BUT there are two pressures to worry about:

1) If they go back to Tyrod, that’s a slight ‘hurt’ for time of possession/ball control.

2) They just lost Chris Harris for several weeks…that’s a killer. Takes them from great-to-good.

You don’t want to use them vs. TB or NO the next two weeks, but then NYJ-MIA-JAX-LV-bye-DEN is a sweet spot and Harris will return in there.

LAC is a DST to vulture and sit on waiting to activate/deploy Week 6.

Arizona would get through Weeks 4-5, then LAC would carry you through the rest of the way potentially (outside of a Wk10 bye).

Snap Counts of Interest:

56 = Ekeler

23 = Kelley

45 = DJ Moore

40 = Robby A

33 = C Samuel