NFL Draft 2022 Scouting Report: SAF Dax Hill, Michigan

*FS/SS grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, Wonderlic test results leaked, etc. We will update info as it becomes available.

A discussion, a scouting of Dax Hill leads to two separate conversations…

1) Dax Hill ‘the safety prospect’, and…

2) Dax Hill ‘the cornerback prospect’

Dax Hill is always listed as a safety, but he’s really (should be) a future cornerback in the NFL. He played safety for Michigan, I guess you could say he was a ‘safety’ -- he was really doing two things, primarily, for the Wolverines in 2021 – either straight up covering a receiver in the passing game man-to-man or kinda playing a jack-of-all-trades safety/linebacker, where he floated around the field and blitzed the backfield a lot. I didn’t see much traditional, old school safety play from Hill.

When he was trying to work more of a traditional safety role…it wasn’t anything special. Hill is very good in coverage, but he’s a pretty thin-framed/wiry body not great for run stopping/straight up tackling. When he blitzed the backfield for Michigan…it wasn’t great/special…and he’s not going to do that in the NFL because he’ll get blocked out of the play (as he did a bunch in college) or he’ll get steamrolled by the bigger backs, receivers, and even bigger-mobile QBs will be hard for him to bring down. Jalen Hurts on the run would easily shed/dismiss Hill in the open field.

Hill is built for coverage…at 6’0”/191 with 4.38 40-speed and a stellar 6.57 three-cone – his gift is his movement ability to cover. So, he will be a free safety by nature/build in the NFL…or you just move him straight to cornerback, on the outside or in the slot. Hill’s gift for the next level is his cover-ability.

Hill is not hard to dissect as a prospect…he’s gonna be in coverage in the NFL, and likely as a corner. Many NFL people have mentioned a potential move to corner…and corner is a more important position and where the money is. He might start out as free safety…or just be a ‘DB’ who moves back and forth between free safety and corner. Whatever it is, he’s a coverage specialist with so-so tackle talent. He should demand to move to corner to go get paid higher in the future, but Hill is a team-first guy, so he’ll likely begin doing whatever the team tells him.

Hill was a five-star recruit out of high school. He was headed to Alabama but switched to Michigan in the end. He was the Oklahoma Player of the Year in high school. His older brother is NFL RB Justice Hill. Dax Hill has been destined for the NFL. He was a solid performer for Michigan and a 2-time Big Ten All-Academic. You’re getting a legit player for your team, a multi-faceted DB plus a good guy for your locker room.

Hill is ‘can’t miss’…but he’s not all-world. He’s just really good, really legit. And he may add 5+ pounds of muscle and be a Pro Bowl level free safety/corner combo. Hill is a clean, obvious, solid multi-faceted NFL DB prospect…and you can’t go wrong with those kinds of players. The economics of the safety position means you can’t get TOO excited here but seen as a corner could get him drafted a tick higher. 

Dax Hill, Through the Lens of Our SAF Scouting Algorithm:

 -- Despite 14 games played, not a top 10 in the Big Ten for tackles in 2021…and only #8 in passes defended (8). He hasn’t been a big number producer…partially because he’s in coverage a lot and taking away a WR, but also when he’s blitzing the backfield, he doesn’t ring the register very often in tackles or TFLs…not as much as you’d hope.

I want to love his pass cover skills, which are good…and he could be great in coverage with more CB training, but with that we also have to acknowledge that tackling and blitzing aren’t a great part of his game. You’re getting a cover guy here, I can’t emphasize that enough – but he’s also not classically trained in CB covering, so we don’t know how good he’ll become if he transitions. We can only guess…and I’d lean to thinking he’ll be able to convert OK.

 -- Had the fastest three-cone (6.57) of any safety at the 2021 NFL Combine, or of any reported Pro Day times (so far).

Only CB/SAF Zyon McCollum had a faster three-cone (6.48) if you expand the search to all DBs in 2022.

2022 NFL Combine:

6’0.2”/191

9.4” hands, 32.5” arms

4.38 40-time, 2.54 20-yd, 1.51 10-yd

33.5” vertical, 10’1” broad (no bench…smartly…it probably wouldn’t be great)

4.06 shuttle, 6.57 three-cone

The Historical SAF Prospects to Whom Dax Hill Most Compares Within Our System:

When I ran comparisons for Hill among all the safeties in our database, there was really nothing like him at all – his combo of size/length, speed, and extreme three-cone. Hill is a NEW age safety in the passing game era with no real historical comp at the position.

However, if I looked at what Hill might comp with at cornerback, then I see a few more things that make sense – including a taller Devin McCourty as a comp I’ve seen scouts mention already, and it fits – a bigger/rangier McCourty…and, again, that’s a really nice NFL player but not a franchise player, per se although with the longevity and usefulness maybe the extreme reliability is ‘franchise-like’. Hill is not sexy so much as reliable franchise-wise.

 What comps might look like at CB...

*The ratings are based on a 1–10 rating scale, but a prospect can score over 10.0+ and less than 0.0.

OVERALL RATING -- We merge the data from physical measurables, skill times/counts from the NFL Combine/Pro Days, with college performance data available on pass coverage/tackles, etc. and grade it compared to our database history of all college SS/FS prospects, with a focus on which SS/FS prospects went on to be good-great-elite in the NFL. We found characteristics/data points that the successful NFL SS/FS's had in common in college, that most other SS/FS prospects could not match/achieve.

Scoring with a rating over a 7.0+ in our system is where we start to take a SS/FS prospect more seriously. Most of the future NFL-successful college SS/FS prospects scored 8.0+ in our system, and most of the NFL-superior FS/SSs pushed ratings more in the 9–10.0+ levels overall. Future NFL busts will sneak into the 8.0+ rating range from time to time.

TACKLE/STRENGTH METRIC -- A combination of physical measurables and college performance, graded historically for future NFL profiling. In the simplest of terms, this is an attempt to classify the SS/FS as one more likely to be involved in a heavy number of tackles, forced fumbles, and physical hits to separate a WR from the ball. It also gives some insight into the "toughness" of a player, if it is possible to quantify that (this is our attempt to).

SPEED/COVERAGE METRIC -- A combination of several speed, agility, size measurements as well as college performance. A unique measuring system to look for SS/FS prospects that profile for superior coverage skills and abilities.

2022 NFL Draft Outlook:

Hill has too many accolades going back to high school plus solid tape plus a great NFL Combine to not go in the 1st-round of the 2022 NFL Draft. I suspect he’ll go early 2nd-half of the 1st-round.

If I were an NFL GM, Hill would have to be on my radar…but then I look at Zyon McCollum…a taller, faster, thicker, more agile, more multi-faceted DB and I would not chase (for the price) Dax Hill because of the ‘Michigan’ label – I’d trade back or I’d reach for Zyon McCollum instead.

NFL Outlook:   

Hill is going to play right away, whether as a starting free safety or slot corner or just a nickel guy…he’s going to play right away, become a starter in short order and be a reliable hand for years…but not a tip of the tongue player people talk about – he’ll just become quietly reliable for his team.