RC's daily streaming notes on football, and other, things going on this week...
Just an open page for me to drop notes/ideas/things I'm hearing/seeing/working on or just caffeinated or lack of sleep thoughts on football items.
11/16 SUN
(6:56amET)
-- Today’s Agenda...
Week 11 International game 9:30amET = WSH v. MIA in Madrid
Sunday Morning Sit-Start Show 10:30amET-NoonET. Show access will post around 10amET+.
Week 11 final projections update will post around 12:30pmET
-- Weather Watch:
A lot of fear mongering about the forecast for gameday in some places, but it looks fine overall with one game having some minor odds at some issues. Here’s the real latest situations projected this morning...
TB at BUF = 40% chance of rain, 40+ degrees, 20mph +/- winds. Not ideal but not devastating for FF outputs. Favors Buffalo for sure. Possible light flurries but very low odds of it.
CIN at PIT = 45 degrees range, 15+ mph winds
GB at NYG = 50+ degrees, 20mph +/- winds
-- Early Injury news...
Brian Thomas is OUT...good news for Parker Washington.
Gabe Davis was elevated from the practice squad for today. Someone not named Keon Coleman (possibly going inactive) is set to start with Palmer-Shakir. Either Samuel, Moore, Hardman, Savers, or Davis.
Drake London is expected to play for Carolina (was sick earlier in the week).
Bam Knight is expected to play today.
Calvin Ridley and Jeffrey Simmons are back for TEN. Doesn’t help Chimere Dike’s projections you’d think...but maybe it helps having Ridley take coverage attention? But do we know if the brilliant Mike McCoy will start Dike? I assume he does...it’s Ridley-Ayomanor on the outside and Dike listed as the slot started. Van Jefferson gets bumped. Dike gets bumped in two-TE sets some.
The Giants elevated Younghoe Koe, so Ben Sauls will not debut today.
Arizona ILB Mack Wilson went on IR.
Brandon McManus is doubtful for today’s game for GB.
-- HEADLINES: Broncos placed RB J.K. Dobbins (foot) on injured reserve.
He’s done for the season. Obviously, R.J. Harvey is the ‘winner’ from this...they have little else...except Jaleel McLaughlin has run as a lead for Sean Payton...and Payton also loves Tyler Badie. But right away it has to be Harvey taking more touches, splitting with one or both of Jaleel/Badie.
I thought maybe Blake Watson would get a shot, since he’s a better runner than all these guys...but he is no longer on the Denver practice squad...he’s on the Titans. Why Payton didn’t already claim him from TENN. this week, I do not know.
-- HEADLINES: Lions placed TE Sam LaPorta (back) on injured reserve.
Brock Wright gets a boost, I guess, but that is pretty FF meaningless. He had some shots at more snaps last year and ‘nothing’. He’s not a real receiving threat.
-- HEADLINES: Bucky Irving is Inactive for Week 11.
Word is that he did practice one-time this week, but one of the days was a walkthrough...but he has still not taken contact on his damaged shoulder. Everything is speculation and rumor on his timeline, but Week 12 has some mild/under 50% hope (maybe under 25%) hope...but he might not be ready until Week 13-14-15 or ever this regular season. It’s all up in the air.
Tampa Bay keeps talking about this like ‘it’s possible’...like ‘it’s possible I might get struck by lightning today’...like in an ‘anything is possible’ way they speak, but I don’t hear any conviction or details.
-- As we’ve been saying for weeks: You might want to hold Mac Jones in Dynasty through to 2026, if you can...
https://x.com/coach_yac/status/1989747960444522573?s=43
-- A look at how fast NFL kicking is evolving...
https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1989382382533972323
-- Kyle Shanahan on getting Ricky Pearsall back:
“The way Ricky was playing before he got hurt, I mean, he was playing like a true number one receiver in this league. Really playing like the guy that we wanted to draft. He had an unbelievable offseason, unbelievable start to this season. I think the hardest thing with losing Ricky was he was really the only receiver that we got an offseason with.
He was the only one who we had throughout training camp with JJ not doing training camp and then JJ getting hurt after. And when Ricky went down, it was really tough because we were having guys with KB, Skyy, even D-Rob being out that month, guys that really had been practicing with us for a while. So that was a huge challenge for us, especially with Mac Jones coming in.
But all these guys getting so much better while Ricky’s been out and then being able to bring back Ricky, who even though this is only his second year, he’s quickly become our veteran, who’s had the most reps with us and stuff. So it’s huge to get him back for the talent of the guy, and excited he’s coming back with Brock Purdy, too.”
RC NOTE: Jauan Jennings may not be the #1 for Purdy anymore? Or at least not the #1 for Kyle?
11/15 SAT
(6:58amET)
-- Today’s Agenda...
Game Report day...all the remaining game reports planned to post.
Week 11 projections update planned approx. 8-10pmET range.
Anything else that pops up, and any new betting items I might see.
*Travel early morning back home from Jacksonville. A great trip. Will give details on it in the next few days!.
-- HEADLINE: Broncos ruled out CB Pat Surtain II (pec) for Week 11 against the Chiefs.
This is the most impactful injury report/player of Week 11...changes a lot of things for FF and betting. We’ve been shifting to thinking/projecting Surtain out as the week went on, but early in the week I thought he was gonna sneak back late. He didn’t. Wow...Denver could’ve put away KC, now it’s in question.
The NFL script writers, man...
They love KC.
-- HEADLINE: Jaguars WR Parker Washington (hamstring) is not on Jacksonville’s final Week 11 injury report.
As I was led to believe yesterday...so this is good. BTJ is questionable.
-- HEADLINE: Chargers TE Oronde Gadsden II (quad) is not on Los Angeles’ final Week 11 injury report.
Man, we went from ‘is he gonna be on IR possibly?’ to ‘fully cleared for Week 11’.
WHEW.
-- HEADLINE: Cowboys Activate LB DeMarvion Overshown, CB Shavon Revel
Dallas defensive upgrades the past week+...
Overshown and Revel back.
Logan Wilson and Quinnen Williams traded for.
We’ll get our first look at the upgraded Dallas defense versus a weak opponent on MNF at Las Vegas.
-- Brian Robinson has looked really nice lately...
https://ninernoise.com/brian-robinson-needs-rushes-christian-mccaffrey-now?page_source=v_recirc
-- NBC HEADLINE: Jets coach Aaron Glenn said “I’m evaluating everything” when asked if he was considering a quarterback change.
I would almost guarantee Tyrod Taylor is starting Week 12...not that matters much, but...
*TWEETS/X’s ROUNDUP...*
-- Wow, Justin Jefferson...
https://x.com/underdog/status/1989415537479487892?s=43
-- It’s not a Derrick Henry problem...but look at his handcuff as well:
https://x.com/underdog/status/1989438187316597247?s=43
-- Zay Flowers is annoying for FF...
https://x.com/sleepernfl/status/1989451391128277270?s=43
-- More let down WRs...DK Metcalf:
https://x.com/mlfootball/status/1989446382781133212?s=43
11/14 FRI
(6:13amET)
-- Today’s Agenda...
Game Report day...a focus on game reports for the rest of the week.
Week 11 projections update planned approx. 8-10pmET range to allow for the West Coast injury reports.
Anything else that pops up, and any new betting I might see.
MD Andersen FIRST meeting day for me and my wife early am. I'll report out on it tomorrow.
-- TNF First Reaction:
The Patriots nice schedule season rolls on. Credit to them...they are winning/beating the teams they are supposed to beat.
We have potentially seen the last Justin Fields start in the NFL here...barring injury. I expect Tyrod Taylor to start next week -- Aaron Glenn wants to have a ‘winning culture’ (in his head) so he’ll make that change he wanted to make 2+ weeks ago but Tyrod got hurt...to try to win games. Justin Fields will collect up the remainder of his money from this colossally foolish $40M deal with the Jets this offseason or by the end of next season, and likely never be seen from again. Like many of his games...he had a solid FF game here, anyway.
TreVeyon Henderson ran for 3.3 yards per carry against the Jets defense but got in position for/scored 3 TDs...5 TDs in two weeks -- you can literally trade him right now for whatever you wanted. Three TDs on a game people saw on a solo night game! It doesn’t get any better than that...and being a rookie. The sky is the limit if you have any interest in trading.
Adonai Mitchell is another example of how bad the Jets personnel department is. It’s one thing to trade for him...it’s another to start him. If the Jets had started any other WR...or if Mitchell could catch, NYJ might have had a shot to win that game.
Mack Hollins catching, then the DB knocking away after, PPR points #14-15 in this game in the 4th-quarter was like someone stabbed me in my soul.
-- HEADLINE: Parker Washington (hamstring) returned to practice Thursday.
I think we’re all clear here for this week. Missed Wednesday...but was probably precautionary. His Friday practice status will tell us the reality, but I think we’re OK.
*A SLEW OF TWEETS/Xs that are interesting news items and mostly relative to this week...
-- I was shocked when I saw this Brock Purdy practice tape. This cannot be good. See if you see the thing that Grant Cohn is trying to show in the video...
https://x.com/mlfootball/status/1988801937068974447?s=43
I don’t know how they go forward with this in Week 11.
-- Interesting Jerry Jeudy stats/splits...
https://x.com/pprfantasytips/status/1989086976654602561?s=43
-- I’m worried this CB will shift to shadow Jameson this week...
https://x.com/thomasrp93/status/1988990104644513850?s=43
-- This is a narrative breaker on Patrick Mahomes for this weekend...? Didn’t he used to be the best against pressure?
https://x.com/sharpfootball/status/1989026040249729130?s=43
-- There is a growing ‘buzz’ wanting the Steelers to turn to Will Howard...it’s coming from several sources locally, not just this Jon Gruden quote I’m using to alert to it. Probably later in the season, if the Steelers are out of it.
https://x.com/theponiexpress/status/1988977207025496310?s=43
Do you really FF-want a Will Howard (or any QB) working with Tomlin/Smith?
-- It’s Woody Marks’ backfield...
https://x.com/polymarketblitz/status/1989023752097808609?s=43
-- This is a long post, but interesting about Caleb Williams...
https://x.com/firstroundmock/status/1989012594334576900?s=43
-- The top graded CBs for PFF this season:
https://x.com/pff/status/1988985408680829039?s=43
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11/13 THU
(6:52amET)
-- Today’s Agenda…
Game Report day...as many as we can get out today and the rest of the week.
Week 11 projections update planned approx. 7pmET range after TNF inactives.
TNF NYJ at NE...my overview of the game and what I am betting, if anything, will post 6-8pmET.
Anything else that pops up, and any early betting I might see.
*Today is Jacksonville pilgrimage day*
I’m going to Jacksonville today to get ready for my Friday early am meetings with several doctors and radiologists at the MD Andersen Cancer Center. So, I am posting several things early morning to get the FFM day off and running...then there might be a gap of time until the next post, until after I get to my hotel Jacksonville midafternoon...unless I can hotspot post from my car.
Please pray for a great trip! This is my first meeting with them with my focus on what they have to offer and what they think of my journey and plan so far, but mostly I’m evaluating why I might get my radiation treatments done there...which is a big deal because radiation is like an every day, five days a week, for 1-2 months program. But MD Andersen is supposed to have the best equipment and people, etc. So, I’m ‘shopping’ for radiation as a big part of this visit/meetings/tour.
-- NBC HEADLINE: 49ers QB Brock Purdy (toe) will start in Week 11 against the Cardinals if the week “goes according to plan.”
49ers WR Ricky Pearsall (knee) will start in Week 11 against the Cardinals if the week “goes according to plan.”
Looks like the 49ers are getting their ‘old guard’ back. I’m not sure SF is really ‘helped’ by this move or not...Mac Jones was doing very well leading the team.
We’ll see if they make in/clear it by Friday, but it looks like Purdy up/Mac down and Pearsall probably in but eased back. Pearsall playing maybe helps the other receivers in Week 11 (with Pearsall taking some coverage), but then as Pearsall gets the rust off they start to spread around targets Week 12 with Jauan and Kittle. Purdy has shown a good connection with Kittle and Jennings...and then Pearsall worked on a Purdy-connection this offseason. I don’t know who the FF winner/Purdy’s #1 target will be when this group is finally back together...AND we’re not far from Brandon Aiyuk being back either. There might not be a real #1...just everyone randomly up/down game-to-game.
-- NBC HEADLINE: Kayshon Boutte (hamstring) will not play in Week 11 against the Jets. Rhamondre Stevenson (toe) will not play in Week 11 against the Jets.
TreVeyon is an obvious winner in this...especially if Terrell Jennings is out, which we have to see about him today.
Mack Hollins is a potential winner with Boutte out...but it’s a tricky/risky ride with him for FF. I’m probably taking that ride in some spots given two of his last 3 games of output and facing a depleted Jets CB group...and my other options are all WR3/Flex sketchy, like Hollins.
-- NBC HEADLINE: Cardinals head coach Jonathan Gannon said RB Trey Benson (knee) is “taking it day by day.”
Benson is still probably 2-3 weeks or more away...and then we’d have to see how he comes back. He would also not come back to a great schedule (a tough run defense schedule).
-- NBC HEADLINE: The Tampa Bay Times’ Rick Stroud reports Bucky Irving (shoulder/foot) and Chris Godwin (fibula) are in “rehab mode.”
Just when you thought they were out...suddenly they are at practice! Bucky is not doing anything at practice to show he’s getting ready for taking hits and back to play. He’s probably another couple of weeks away from being ready and then once he is ready to go in -- everyone will be holding their breath after every hit he takes.
I think Godwin and Irving are still a ways off, but they are starting the process of maybe lightly getting back into the practice flow. We may not see either until December...but it’s gonna be pain/risk tolerance on Bucky.
-- A.J. Brown is trying to talk his way out of Philly...or stir up controversy...but he’s also not wrong (below). The Eagles offense is not great right now.
https://x.com/mysportsupdate/status/1988635182132232643?s=46&t=AGzQUcOrI_LN1UIXKso9Sw
We are past the ‘respected WR yaps and the squeaky wheel gets the grease with a lot of targets the next week’. I think a lot of people on the team are getting agitated by AJB. I think they tried to trade AJB at the deadline, but the price was too high/little interested teams to take on some lowkey disturbance player. I don’t think Jalen Hurts believes he needs to try and make AJB happy with a bunch of targets...AJB is never happy, and Hurts doesn’t want to placate AJB any more...as witnessed by this entire season.
-- It’s starting to happen for Luther Burden...likely starting more major this week.
https://beargoggleson.com/ben-johnson-sounds-ready-to-finally-deliver-on-promise-with-luther-burden
-- QB Scoring/Stat Trends (Weeks 5-10)...
PPG (4pts):
25.5 = Flacco
24.4 = Mahomes
23.9 = Dart
23.2 = Stafford
22.3 = Herbert
TD Passes:
17 = Stafford
12 = Herbert
12 = Maye
12 = Darnold
11 = Mix, D. Jones, Hurts, Flacco, Dak, Goff
Pass Yards:
1,588 = Mac Jones
1,581 = D. Jones
1,567 = Maye
1,547 = Herbert
1,410 = Mahomes
Rush Yards:
263 = Dart
231 = Herbert
185 = Maye
177 = Jayden
155 = Mahomes
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11/12 WED
(7:38amET)
-- Today’s Agenda…
Game Report day...as many as we can get out today and the rest of the week.
Week 11 projections update 7-9pmET approx.
Any early betting I see that I want to lose money on, I’ll put it out there so you can bet the opposite...with my luck/skill lately.
-- Waiver TUE Night Commentary/notes (national overview)...
Where he was available, Joe Burrow won the night of free agency...which makes sense that he would...but the QB market is getting so devalued (so many QBs rising up) that people are gonna have to hold for weeks and then hope he plays, and that he plays well. And FF teams making it that far in FF (Week 13-14+) probably already have a good QB for FF. But it is ‘Burrow’. I can’t blame anyone for taking a shot.
Parker Washington won the night among the non-QBs, as expected. Tez Johnson faded off among the top WR grabs...the masses aren’t buying it on Tez yet. Mack Hollins got mostly ignored last night.
The ‘surprise’ FA winner last night...he really got big heat (I wonder why?) was Sean Tucker. He was the top RB grab with Emari Demercado second. Barely any interest in an NFL team’s starting RB for the next 1-2 weeks, minimum, Kareem Hunt.
The TE winner last night was Dalton Schultz FAR & AWAY the winner. Cade Otton and Colston Loveland paled in comparison. Theo Johnson got mostly ignored by comparison, nationally.
The Falcons-DST was the #1 grab by far...people love to go against the Panthers offense. Wonder why? Dave Canales doesn’t understand. The Cowboys-DST got a lot of heat last night too...well ahead of the Chargers...big mistake.
Andres Borregales was the top kicker of interest by a HUGE margin over everyone else. I don’t get it.
-- I guess? Doesn’t feel like it...but maybe?
https://x.com/sleepernfl/status/1988416918286725221?s=43
-- What a set up for Miami...
https://x.com/tom_schad/status/1988033798634959233?s=43
-- It’s finally starting to happen...it only took 4+ years, but the NFL is catching on to it...
https://x.com/sharpfootball/status/1988300219193454646?s=43
Actually, not the NFL but Warren Sharp...so the NFL still needs 2-3+ more years.
-- He gets no respect! https://x.com/MikeClayNFL/status/1988251921505775972
Just missing the list...disrespected Joe Flacco.
The Unc’s rule. I learned that word from my kids...
-- The excitement is fading for this rookie...
https://x.com/ihartitz/status/1988356467741565340?s=43
It’s probably the surroundings, not the player...?
-- PK Scoring Trends...
PPG (Wks 5-10):
14.5 = Fairbairn
11.8 = Bowell
11.7 = Dicker
10.2 = Pineiro
09.8 = McPherson
*Aubrey #10, McLaughlin #9
PPG Wks (7-10):
13.3 = Fairbairn
12.0 = McPherson
11.8 = Dicker
11.3 = Myers
11.0 = Reichard, Boswell
*Aubrey #9
50+ Yard FGs: (Wks 5-10):
5 = Pineiro, Boswell
4 = McLaughlin
3 = Dicker, Reichard, Little
*1 = Aubrey
FG Attempts (Wks 5-10):
17 = Dicker
15 = Fairbairn
14 = Grupe
13 = Boswell
12 = Pineiro, McPherson, Patterson, Reichard, Folk
*9 = Aubrey
11/11 TUE
(7:08amET)
-- Today’s Agenda…
Tuesday Night Waivers Video Show 8:30pm-10pmET
Week 11 Projections day...they will debut/post approx. 5-7pmET
Game Reports today...mid-morning and hopefully another will post in the evening.
-- MNF PHI at GB first reactions...
A boring-ish, slow pace watch defensive battle with a terrific/compelling finish. 3-0 Philly at the half. It was a Saquon vs. Jacobs run-fest and good+ defense by both sides. The Eagles defense won the day.
The Eagles added players on defense the past two weeks via trade and Brandon Graham came out of retirement and Nolan Smith is back from IR...and this Eagles defense is gonna be tough to deal with down the stretch. Jaelan Phillips was a game wrecker here (...thanks, Miami! for sucking).
Jaelan Phillips is back in the IDP conversation, but I thought Jalyx Hunt was the one who stood out the most -- sacks in back-to-back weeks for Hunt.
A.J. Brown 2-13-0/3...another dud. Wow.
Romeo Doubs got hurt and left the game early, of course...one catch for 5 yards.
Will Shipley got more run as a handcuff than Tank Bigsby?
Green Bay had a chance to tie it at the buzzer, but this FG attempt happened: https://x.com/nfl_memes/status/1988100519408398838?s=43
We’re onto Week 11!!!
-- Tetairoa McMillan is going to starve to death until Bryce is replaced.
https://x.com/2shows1host/status/1987704403797684263?s=43
https://x.com/ScottBarrettDFB/status/1987946237748805884
-- Speaking of great WRs, but this one has a great QB:
https://x.com/underdog/status/1987920687324168367?s=43
https://x.com/hughart_michael/status/1987723209379070345?s=43
-- The devaluation of the QB in the NFL Draft has begun...I just don’t know if the NFL can ever learn a lesson within 10 years of a sea change or major shift:
https://x.com/theblockspot/status/1987940929991303611?s=43
-- You think Tua sucks?
https://x.com/hardrockbet/status/1987960635095646604?s=43
-- My Current Simulations for the rest of the NFL season...
Projected playoff seedings:
AFC
1) IND
2) BUF
3) KC
4) BAL
5) DEN
6) NE
7) LAC
------------
8) PIT
NFC
1) LAR
2) DET
3) PHI
4) TB
5) SEA
6) SF
7) GB
-----------
8) ATL
#1 draft pick:
#1 = NYJ
#2 = NYG
#3 = WSH
#4 = TEN
#5 = NO
-- Let’s end it with this...
https://x.com/ghettogronk/status/1987630494473986468?s=43
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11/10 MON
(7:55amET)
-- Today's Agenda...
Week 10 TNF LV-DEN Game Recap scheduled to post midday today.
I’m working on the Executive Report all day ahead of MNF...planned to post 6-8pmET.
MNF Betting overview and my bets will post ahead of MNF.
-- Injuries from Sunday roundup...
Oronde Gadsden (knee) = could be a serious knee dislocation or fracture, possibly/holding out hope it’s a sprain.
Dalton Kincaid (hamstring) = a week or two projected but needs confirmation.
Garrett Wilson (knee) = reinjured right knee...could be missing more weeks, possibly the rest of the season in a lost season.
Davante Adams (oblique) = a strain...we don’t know the severity
Jaxson Dart (concussion) = We won’t know until THU/FRI. 50/50 for Week 11.
J.K. Dobbins (foot) = Awaiting 2nd-opinion, which is never good. We won’t know until some time today.
Bucky Irving (shoulder) = Not even practicing yet...could be 1-2 weeks or more away.
Trey Benson = looking to see if he practices this week at all but is still probably a week or two away.
Zay Jones (achilles) = done for the season
Rashod Bateman (high ankle sprain) = 2-4 weeks
Chris Rodriquez (shoulder) = Unknown severity.
Bam Knight (ankle) = Unknown severity.
*Some interesting Tweet/X or news report tidbits from Sunday*
-- How is Brian Daboll staying employed? https://x.com/joeschoenmvp/status/1987631019558605282?s=43
-- A Ricky Pearsall update/not update?
https://x.com/coach_yac/status/1986923091348361446?s=43
-- The Washington downfall... https://x.com/granthpaulsen/status/1987677678636249506
-- Apparently, it’s not Bryce Young’s fault at all (read/skim down to the end)
-- Missed Tackles and Yards after contact Infographic (before Week 10)...
https://x.com/mpfrazer/status/1986539728317943977?s=43
-- Seattle rushing TDs... https://x.com/underdog/status/1987637582520365174?s=43
-- Brissett v. Kyler: https://x.com/underdog/status/1987662483880882238?s=43
-- I didn’t know this...this can’t be good: https://x.com/adamschefter/status/1987862815038693865?s=43
They took down that Schefter tweet...here's what it was about: https://x.com/underdognfl/status/1987654004957122964?s=43
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