NFL Draft 2022 Scouting Report: TE Cade Otton, Washington

*Our TE grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, leaked Wonderlic test results, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.

**Our TE formulas had some slight changes in the 2018 offseason—an adjustment to better identify and value TE prospects that are smaller physically and are primed for the era ahead...the era of Jordan Reed and Delanie Walker-type TEs. Our historical grades will have changed some on various prospects as well, to show their grades by comparison. 

Tough scouting study here – Cade Otton injured his ankle late in the 2021 season and had surgery to clean it up (not a major event), so he won’t be participating in any pre-Draft workouts. It’s all guesswork/projections on what his measurables would be across the board.

Otton is well thought of by the mainstream. Not their top guy, but almost always in their top five TE prospects…and he’s slipping a bit just because of ‘outta sight, outta mind’.

So, we have to rely on the tape here and make measurables projections. And I think the key tape that I watched for Otton is his 2021 game against Michigan – by far the highest profile, toughest opponent UW/Otton faced in 2021…or in the last three seasons. I call it the ‘key tape’ because I think most analysts and scouts leaned on this game tape to form their impression of Otton.

The key thing on the ‘key tape’ was how well Otton fought as a blocker…especially against Aidan Hutchinson. Otton really battled Hutchinson a few times and was pretty solid against him.  Otton showed real ‘fight’, and that’s what NFL coaches love to see in a tight end.

NFL coaches LOVE the 6’4”+/245+ athletic-but-not-too-athletic tight end who is a fighter as a blocker. When I think of the perfect tight end, or the great NFL tight ends, my mind goes to Antonio Gates and Tony Gonzalez, or more currently a Darren Waller or George Kittle type…the athletic, playmaker TEs. However, the same question causes NFL coaches to dream of Jason Witten, Kyle Rudolph, Todd Heap, Heath Miller types. Otton is more in that ‘NFL desired’ style, though not as good as many of those names.

Otton is a good+ blocker. He’s not the best blocker of the 2022 TE group, but he’s better than most.

Once you accept Otton as having good NFL TE size (6’5”/245) and being a good/willing blocker with tape to hang onto…then you wonder about his passing game ability – and that’s where I’m always ‘meh’ on Otton. Some swear he’s a Travis Kelce-alike…and maybe that’s possible, but I don’t see it on tape. I’m never blown away watching Otton work the passing game.  He’s not bad…not a negative to hide…just nothing special (or awful).

When I watch Otton in the passing game, I see a guy that probably runs 4.65-4.70+…average speed, average agility. In the Michigan game, Otton couldn’t separate in man coverage with a fringe NFL linebacker/safety like Brad Hawkins. Dax Hill toyed with Otton in coverage. Now, Otton can run the basic TE short/stop routes or slip off a fake block and run down the middle seam and get open and make catches, the typical/basic TE stuff – but if you think Otton is going to be a high-end weapon on his own, I don’t think it’s there. He’s not a million miles from it, but I just don’t see this electric TE on tape…I see a good TE prospect, not a great one.

If Otton goes on to be a Jack Doyle or Drew Sample (UW), or Dalton Schultz, or Cole Kmet…that’s fine, but how exciting is that, really? It works. It’s just not revolutionary.

I think of Otton in terms of another 2022 TE prospect Charlie Kolar, both bigger TE prospects of some notoriety and both good college performers, but not dominant forces. Otton is probably the better ‘right now’ tight end over Kolar, but if you were taking a shot at one of them becoming a star in the future – you’d go with Kolar. If a team needs a solid hand at TE right away, Otton could be an option after the top/obvious names go ahead of him.

Off the field, everything is clean with Otton. He’s an all-PAC-12 Academic performer (2018 and 2020). He’s won various team leadership and work ethic awards. Besides the late 2021 ankle issue/surgery (should be ready for summer camp), no real notes off the field to worry about. 

Cade Otton, Through the Lens of Our TE Scouting Algorithm:

Otton had a lesser output in college than Charlie Kolar (keeping up with this comparison) or with Isaiah Likely or Greg Dulcich (TEs that Otton is usually ranked near), but Otton had the worst offense/QB play to work with among them. If you had swapped Otton and Kolar for their careers, their outputs would probably have switched along with their situations…Otton would have been around Kolar’s output levels if he had gone to Iowa State all his years.

In 2020, the COVID shortened season, Otton played four games and had two games with 7+ catches, 100+ yards, and three total TDs in those games. It looked like Otton was going to take-off from there, but he really had a dud season in 2021…blame the offense for part of that.

2022 NFL Combine Measurables/Estimates:

6’5”/245, 9.5” hands, 32.75” arms, 17 bench reps at the Combine.

Estimates…

4.65-4.70+ 40-times, 7.2+ three-cone, 33”+ vertical

The Historical TE Prospects to Whom Cade Otton Most Compares Within Our System:

John Carlson is a perfect comp for Otton…a six-year career, mostly a starter, hot start to his career and kinda faded…he was boringly ‘good’. Not memorable or game changing…changed from three different teams in six seasons, made decent football money, played good snaps, performed OK…just didn’t leave a big dent in anyone’s minds. There are worse careers to have…

*A score of 7.0+ is where we start to take a TE prospect more seriously. A score of 8.50+ is where we see a stronger correlation of TEs going on to become NFL good/great/elite. A score of 10.00+ is more rarefied air in our system and indicates a greater probability of becoming an elite NFL TE.

All of the TE ratings are based on a 0–10 scale, but a player can score negative, or above a 10.0 in certain instances.

**The ‘TE-Reed’ score is in honor of Jordan Reed’s 2015 season…looking at TEs in a different manner—the smaller, speedy receiving threats.

“Speed-Agility Metric” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding speed, agility, physical size, mixed with some on-field performance metrics. High scorers here project to have a better YAC and show characteristics to be used as deep threats/create separation.

“Power-Strength Metric” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding physical size profiling, bench press strength, etc.  High scorers here project to be more physical, better blockers, and less injury-prone.

“Hands Metric” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding on-field performance in college, considering the strength of opponents played. Furthermore, this data considers some physical profiling for hand size, etc. High scorers here have a better track record of college statistical performance, and project the combination of data for receiving success at the next level.

2022 NFL Draft Outlook:

Cade Otton is usually inside most people’s top 100 overall prospects for the 2022 NFL Draft, but right on the fringe of in/out of the top 100…a top five ranked TE usually, more #4-5. He’s losing steam because he hasn’t been able to work out to confirm any athleticism numbers. And I think being ‘hidden’ is helping him – as people draw big conclusions off the Michigan tape. In the end, I think he goes anywhere from #90-125.

If I were an NFL GM, I’d rather take the lesser-regarded Kolar over Otton just because the size/athleticism profile is ‘star-like’, potentially. Of course, I’d take Jelani Woods over all of them in a heartbeat.

NFL Outlook:   

Most likely outcome: Has the John Carlson career…good enough to start in the NFL, but not a memorable TE. I won’t swear to it 100% because we don’t really know his athleticism numbers for any upside – but my tape study says he’s just OK/good.