- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 16: Bills 33, Patriots 21
The Bills got up 7-0 in the 1st-quarter, and never trailed the entire game…but every time they’d get up by two scores, the Pats would cut it to one…so, it was a game down to the final five minutes, where Buffalo put it away with a TD at the 2:30 mark, to go up 12 points, and cut off the final gasp for air by New England. A huge win…a huge mental victory for a Buffalo team that had its psyche fading away recently. They are not ‘fixed’ but this was a step in the right direction.
Really, this game wasn’t that close to my eye – Buffalo was dominant, and the Patriots were lucky the Bills didn’t score 4-5 TDs in the 1st-half. The Bills were constantly thwarted by ill-timed penalties or near-miss TDs, etc.
Checkout the key internal stats from this game…
Bills 428 yards, NE 288 yards
Bills 6-of-12 on 3rd-downs, NE 1-of-10.
Two turnovers for NE, none for BUF.
The Bills get a resounding win to take back the division lead at (11-6), tied with the Pats…but if BUF wins out then they win the AFC East. Who do the Bills finish up with…two home games vs. ATL and NYJ. If they lose one of those games, they deserve to not make the playoffs. Buffalo still has a path to a #1 seed, but it involves a lot of good teams losing all their games…not likely to happen. Bills should win the AFC East and be a #3 seed for the playoffs.
The Patriots blew their chance…but they were really in over their heads. They are to be credited for getting this far…they just aren’t as good as the Bills. New England should win out and be a top wild card…where they will likely get bounced in the 1st-round…and it could be facing Buffalo again.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- There were four MVP (game) performances for the Bills here, and I want to point out all four because they all have some relevance going forward…
1) Josh Allen (30-47 for 314 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT, 12-64-0) did what you want an elite QB to do…he took over the game – running over and around people when he had to, and making a lot of good throws in not so perfect weather against what was arguably the top 1-2 pass defense in the NFL going in.
Going to be ‘feels like’ 10-15 degrees Week 17 vs. ATL…not optimal weather, but not totally restricting (and warming up a tiny amount in forecasts every day this week)…and with Allen carrying the team on the ground and air, you have to ride the current #1 PPG QB in all of Fantasy one more week regardless of the extreme cold.
2) Really impressive performance by Stefon Diggs (7-85-1/13) here. In a big money game, the Bills as an underdog taking back the AFC East…with Diggs facing the GREAT CB J.C. Jackson, who has smushed almost everyone he’s covered this season – Diggs beat him. I haven’t seen Jackson on his heels, frustrated like that in a long time. Credit to Diggs…credit to Allen.
I was a bit worried about Diggs in the deeper cold Week 17 vs. A.J. Terrell…not that Diggs isn’t great/better than Terrell -- but would the weather also kinda put a lid on things? However, considering what Diggs just did to Jackson in not great weather…you kinda have to ride-or-die with Diggs this week too.
3) Isaiah McKenzie (11-125-1/12) was probably the true MVP. We know Allen-Diggs are great, but McKenzie changed the offense from it’s choppy (all season) ways with Cole Beasley (DNP) in. McKenzie was just not ‘right place, right time’, as I have said those (incorrect) words out of my own mouth/two typing hands…no, he was better than that.
I mean, I knew McKenzie could have a moment here – we were giving him a deeper FF-roster push to start last week, and some were able to, and now those teams are in the FF finals. I just thought McKenzie would get a few good touches and has the speed to spring one…I didn’t know he’d be a star here.
What happened here was McKenzie as a real bulldog…he converted several key 3rd-downs. I’ve seen a lot of drops with the Bills WRs this season…McKenzie didn’t miss a thing and dove for passes and took on tacklers, and was money. His best game ever – and played in a way that he deserves to start/split over Beasley…but he won’t because Allen and Beasley are BFFs. But McDermott will likely take Beasley off the field some and get McKenzie on it more so Allen has no choice.
Hell of a performance, not just the stats, the actual tape…very good…very gritty. Just in time for his 2022 free agency in a few months. McKenzie jumps onto the Stash report next week.
4) We also have to credit Devin Singletary (12-39-1, 5-39-0/6) for another lead back performance. DS has put Moss-Breida into the dustbin of Buffalo RB history in recent weeks…which, I don’t know what the hell McDermott has been thinking trying to push Moss or Breida over the obvious answer sitting right there in Singletary.
Singletary has been an RB2 for two weeks in a row now…and it might be three in a row Week 17 in cold weather vs. bottom 10 run defense Atlanta.
-- The Patriots did their normal offense…run the ball a lot and play action passes to so-so results. My only note here is – their Week 17 against Jacksonville looks like a good matchup but people calling for a Mac Jones (14-32 for 145 yards, 0 TDs/2 INTs) QB1 week are reaching a little bit. He’s not that type of QB, and it’s not that type of offense. It’s not impossible, but I’d bet against it.
Mac Jones is not radically better or is about as good as Davis Mills and Trevor Lawrence…and all three don’t have half the talent Zach Wilson has throwing the ball, nor a-third of the athletic gifts of Trey Lance.
Snap Counts of Interest:
61 = N Harry
48 = Meyers
30 = Bourne
34 = Bolden
31 = Dam Harris
55 = H Henry
21 = Jonnu
54 = Singletary
26 = Moss
67 = McKenzie
65 = Diggs
65 = Sanders
**College Football Metrics 2022…new season signups coming in January 2022**
The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!
The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…
Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 16: Texans 40, Chargers 29
A total embarrassment by the Chargers…that could’ve been avoided. Two things really stood out to me here that the Chargers did to themselves. Not that they would have shined if they made two specific changes in this game, but maybe they would have won.
(1) They have transitioned All-American, 1st-round draft pick 2020 Kenneth Murray from interior LB, where he fits, to now trying to make him an edge rusher.
Murray has no clue of what he’s doing at edge rusher. About every time he was in this game the Texans ran it his way…to/through wide-open holes. The Texans left tackle had his easiest day of blocking ever. Murray is a great prospect, I think, but he looked like a total idiot trying to pass rush. He’s a linebacker not an edge rusher. His career is evaporating before his very eyes. Why the Chargers staff doesn’t see this is beyond me.
(2) Even worse, because it’s been an all-year problem – Jared Cook is killing this offense. They insist on him as the lead TE in the passing game, and he’s so slow (age has caught up) that he can’t get to the spots he’s supposed to be fast enough, can’t beat coverage enough, and does nothing with the ball after the catch. Remember his twisted body drop in the KC game/loss for an easy (lost) TD, but his tin man body couldn’t get in place to make the easy catch? He had a few plays like that in the KC game that hurt the team in low key/subtle ways.
In this game, in the 4th-quarter with LAC trying to speed their offense down two scores with only minutes remaining…Herbert threw him a pass on a medium route where Cook was running ahead of coverage (shock) but then Cook inexplicably slowed-stopped/sat down on the route he was running open, as Herbert fired a laser to where Cook was going if he stayed in-stride, but Cook had stopped, the ball sailed right to a DB 5+ yards behind the play for an easy pick-six, and squashed the ballgame.
I thought Brandon Staley would be the star coach of this 2021 rookie crop…he’s turning out to be just another guy who really loves football but has no clue on personnel and keeps making the same mistakes over and over and over every week – my guess is he is afraid of the veteran players and non confrontational with his staff (just a pure guess). He’s supposed to be a defensive guru, and yet their defense gets worse every week. His O-C is killing the offense…how do you ruin Justin Herbert? By trying to ‘get Jared Cook going’ for starters…as Mike Williams is a decoy/blocker. Josh Palmer is an impact WR for them right now…and he can’t even start unless COVID forces it…and then he barely gets the ball enough.
Everything that could be done wrong seems to be done wrong by the Chargers right now. This loss was devastating to their playoff chances. They have to win out to get in, lose this week to Denver and they are probably cooked for a wild card. It didn’t have to come to this. They’re doing it to themselves.
Houston (4-11) took the gift from LAC and are now on a two-game win streak…which probably gives David Culley another year. A ‘win’ that is a ‘loss’ for the Texans future, but I have to say – the Texans have played hard enough under Culley to warrant another year…and Davis Mills is turning out to be better than most of the high pick rookie QBs, so in the grand scheme of all coaches suck anyway…why not give Culley one more year? He was put into an impossible situation to begin with. He hasn’t been any worse than Brandon Staley…just Culley tried to push Tyrod Taylor, while Staley has the safety net of Justin Herbert.
Cully getting Houston to 4 wins is more impressive than Staley coaching his team down to 8 wins, currently.
LAC is (8-7) and plays a do-or-die game with Denver Week 17…and I think they’re in trouble of getting knocked off and kicked out of what should have been an easy playoff season. The Chargers have to win out to get to the playoffs now. A lot of what Brandon Staley has as a leader of men plays out the next two weeks of games he should win, he must win.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- No need to do anymore Justin Jackson (11-64-2, 8-98-0/9) FF victory laps. The ‘stars aligned’ for the big FF week…and now they don’t, for JJax. Austin Ekeler (DNP) is back, and they’ll do a 70/30 split Ekeler/JJax and that’s that. Fun while it lasted for JJ.
This RB run we are on through the FF playoffs…it’s a mental note of how, in most typical-sized leagues, the RB position does not warrant the preseason/redraft hysteria that we all give it. Whatever breaks at RB, you can fix it. Having the dominant WRs and high-end QB gets you by until you get the RB slot figured out week-to-week. …and just when you think you got the RB position settled for your FF team, you don’t…so stop being paranoid about it. You can’t tame it. You just close your eyes and ‘use the force’. Do the best you can at the start of the season, and know we’ll fix it by the middle and end with guys who weren’t even a thought in August during your redrafts…because there’s always options as they all get injured, COVID, stuck behind broken O-Lines, have 3rd-stringers come in due to injury and outperform the original NFL starters in September. You need an RBBC not CMC.
-- Hell, you could even get a big week out of Rex bygawd Burkhead (22-149-2, 2-0-0/2). Did I mention how bad the Chargers run defense is? Houston has not been able to take advantage of any good matchups all season with an F- minus (by us) graded O-Line. Except here, the RB group combined for 35 carries for 190 yards and a 5.3 ypc clip.
Javonte Williams will have a field day against them in Week 17.
You don’t even need an RBBC or CMC…you just need to have your RB with matchups against L-A-C.
…or Houston.
I would not trust Rex is going to do a repeat of this output against SF this week.
-- Three starts in a row for Davis Mills (21-27 for 254 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) since taking the starting job from Tyrod Taylor. In that span, he’s posted a (2-1) record with 5 TDs/1 INT. Mills v. SF Week 17 isn’t a terrible matchup.
-- Josh Palmer (5-42-1/6) had a so-so game here, salvaged by a late garbage-time TD. However, the tape of him…the simple plays he made, the movement after the catch…it’s stunning the Chargers aren’t starting him and getting him the ball. However, seeing what the LAC staff has done with decisions all year…it’s actually not stunning at all.
Palmer + Herbert into the future is going to be a good thing. Just not reliable Week 17 with Big Mike and Guyton back.
-- Side note…you wanna know how bad this loss was? Houston crushed LAC without three of their best defenders (Greenard-Grugier-Hill-Lopez) active (out with COVID).
This loss and the Bills loss to Jacksonville are the ugliest losses of 2021…and this one may take the cake with the COVID inactives for Houston.
Snap Counts of Interest:
60 = Palmer
55 = Keenan
45 = Jason Moore
39 = J Cook
22 = Stv Anderson
15 = McKitty
42 = Rex B
24 = Royce Freeman
01 = Jaylen Samuels
- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 16: Cowboys 56, Washington 14
This might possibly have been the most one-sided beatdown I've watched all year. Washington was never in this game, not even for a second and they knew it. By now I'm sure everyone has seen the clip of Jonathan Allen taking a swing at Daron Payne. It was that kind of game.
Washington needed to win this game to have any chance at the playoffs however remote. Instead, they are going to be pondering off-season changes after a promising season got derailed by injuries and ineffective play. The strangest part of their season has been the total lack of the dominant defense we saw emerging late last season. It seemed like things were improving the past month or two, but this game was a real wake up call that there are serious issues to work out.
Dallas, meanwhile, is feeling pretty good about themselves. They are on a four game win streak and just demolished whatever was left of Washington. They've already sewn up a division title and playoff spot. Now it's just a question of how high a seed they can get. If they go in this week and pound the weakened Cardinals into submission, then with a little luck and a GB loss they might find a way into the top seed which would be huge for their Superbowl aspirations. Lose to the Cardinals and old doubts may start to creep in.
It's easy to get caught up in the idea that Dallas is going to roll over Arizona, but I wouldn't be so sure. The Cardinals are still one of the most talented and dangerous teams in the league when they are playing well, and no offense to the Cowboys, but their recent schedule does not exactly strike fear into the hearts of men.
Who is the best team they've beaten all season? The Chargers? The Patriots? Not exactly a ringing endorsement. I'm not trying to suggest they are frauds, but I do think expectations are getting a little wild. This looks like a strong but not dominant team to me. I think GB is better, and if the Cowboys have to go into the blistering cold of Wisconsin I don't think they are going to fare well.
Fantasy Notes
--So what caused the resurgence in the Dallas passing game? Mostly it was because Washington has collapsed in the secondary while dealing with injuries. William Jackson, Landon Collins, and Jamin Davis were all out here. It left Jeremy Reaves and Darryl Roberts to get picked on over and over.
Since week 9, when Dak returned from his injury, he's thrown for more than 250 yards only 3 times, against the Falcons, Raiders, and now Washington. In his other 5 games, he's been hovering around 225 yards or so each game. However, his opponents in those five games were the Broncos, Chiefs, Saints, Giants, and Washington, all very tough pass defenses if you include Washington a few weeks ago when they were healthy.
I'm not worried overly much about Dallas's passing attack. Look for them to have another muted game against the Cardinals this week but then bounce back against the Eagles in week 18 (if the starters are playing). In the playoffs I think we'll see Dak up closer to the 250-300 range most games except against the Packers.
*RC NOTE: I’m a bit more optimistic on the Dallas passing game Wk17 vs. ARI…in part because the Cardinals defense, especially their secondary is falling apart in part due to injury. In the past two weeks Jared Goff and then Carson Wentz had no problems with the once vaunted Arizona pass defense. Something has changed, and with Dallas likely getting Tyron Smith back Week 17…Dak & Friends might be alright Week 17.
--Antonio Gibson has been dealing with nagging foot, shin, and ankle issues all season, but until now he hasn't missed any time. That might change this week as his latest injury is something with his hip and he wasn't at practice on Thursday. Owners may be tempted to assume Gibson will power through this injury the same as he's done all year, but I think this time might be different. It seems like there might be too many issues for him to work through now, and with the Washington season effectively done, it's entirely possible Gibson gets shut down here.
Even if he plays against Philly this week, I would be very careful starting him (assuming he gets cleared). The Eagles have been crushing the run game recently, and it's very likely they'll get an early lead which will prevent Washington from running the ball. If you have other options I would avoid Gibson and pray that so many things will work out right for him to have a good game.
--RC and I both really like Ricky Seals-Jones as a TE1 hopeful against the Eagles this week. The Eagles aren't a great pass defense, but they are particularly weak to TE's, and RSJ is a pretty solid option. He had a bad time against the Cowboys, but so did the entire offense and eventually he was just benched along with most of the other starters.
It's not a guarantee, but if you need a streamer at TE for your championship game, this is likely the best matchup you're going to find.
--If you've read my stuff at all the past few years you'll know that I am a huge fan of Terry McLaurin. I think he's possibly the most underrated receiver in the league, and a large part of it is because he plays with absolute crap QB's. It's the Allen Robinson problem all over again.
McLaurin has had a few splash games throughout the season where he came down with some 50-50 balls, but by and large he's been a huge disappointment for fantasy.
Over the first 7 games of the season McLaurin was averaging 10 targets per game with three 100 yard games and 4 TD's.
Over the last 8 games he's averaged a shade under 6 targets per game with one 100 yard game and 1 TD.
As much as I like him, McLaurin has officially fallen into WR3 territory and I don't see any change coming, not with Heinicke at QB...
--Speaking of Taylor Heinicke (7-22 for 122, 1 TD/2 INT's), why does anyone keep pushing this guy as some kind of viable option for fantasy or real life?
He's not. He never has been. I mean, he's not terrible like the way a Sam Darnold is. He's not totally inept. But he's backup material. He runs around a little bit and can complete a few passes, but there's just no upside with this guy.
He's only cracked 245 yards 6 times all season, and in those games he averaged 38 attempts per game. In all his other games he's averaged 26.5 attempts per game.
He's only thrown for 2+ TD's five times all season.
He's only run for 50+ yards ONCE all season and he only has ONE rushing TD on the season.
So he's not a great passer and he's not a great runner...why would I want him for fantasy then? Why would I want him as the QB of my real football team?
IDP Notes
--Jeremy Reaves (11 tackles) has averaged 11.5 tackles per game at safety since he became a starter the last two weeks. It's not because he's good, but it's working for fantasy and if he's starting again this week he should have a fantastic game against a run-heavy Philly team. Lots of tackles to be had on this suddenly leaky Washington defense.
Snap Counts of Interest
42 = Elliott
25 = Pollard
54 = Lamb
52 = Cooper
48 = Gallup
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 16: Rams 30, Vikings 23
This game was close/a one score win in the end, but it never felt like it was close. The Rams took a quick lead, pushed it to two scores. The Vikings would cut it to one score every so often, then the Rams would push it right back to a two-score lead. It was 30-20 Rams with two minutes left. The Vikings took a field goal with 0:32 left to go for the score-now-onsides-next prayer…but it failed, and the Rams walked out with a big win. The Rams did not play a great game, but they’re better than sloppy/choppy Minnesota.
The Rams are now (11-4) with a good chance to win the NFC West from the collapsing Cardinals, but with little chance to get a #1 seed. I could see the Rams winning out (at BAL, SF) and winning the West. I could see the Rams losing out and limping in as a wild card.
The Vikings are now (7-8) and their playoff hopes are very narrow…they need to win out and for the Eagles to lose out to have any chance. It’s not off the table, but it’s highly unlikely. If the Vikings lose to Green Bay Week 17 (likely) then I would not be shocked if Mike Zimmer was fired Monday to allow the Vikings to start the interview process.
Speaking of Minnesota at Green Bay Week 17… The current weather forecast for that game is 5 degrees/’feels like -9 degrees. I guess it actually gives the Vikings a better chance at the upset, but it’s not going to be good for upside FF production, that’s for sure. We will get into all that in the next section.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Perhaps the biggest news concerning these two teams heading into Week 17 is the Darrell Henderson injury (goes on IR) spawning a possible Cam Akers activation for Week 17. I didn’t believe they’d do it, but then I saw Akers practiced in full on Wednesday and now I’m not taking it as so crazy.
I haven’t a clue whether Akers will be active for Week 17…and then if he is, I don’t know if he’d start…be there for emergency…split the time with Michel. I have no idea. Sean McVay will keep it close to the vest and leave the opponent guessing…as will the FF owners with Sony Michel (27-131-1, 1-4-0/1) and/or Cam Akers be left to guess.
If I have to make a projection, and I do, I’d say Michel for 70%+ of the touches. Akers for emergency use and maybe some ‘blow the rust off’ touches. I’d be worried about my Michel start and not confident enough to really play Akers – unless McVay comes out blathering that Akers is clear and starting and he’s excited.
-- Matt Stafford (21-37 for 197 yards, 1 TD/3 INTs) is perplexing…but that’s been his whole career. He plays so well for a week or two or three, and you’re thinking he’s the best…then in a favorable matchup or big spot on national TV, he throws a bunch of bad/inexplicable picks.
In his last 7 games, Stafford has a (4-3) record with 14 TDs/9 INTs and one 300+ yard game in that span…after five of his first 8 games as a Ram with 300+ yards passing. As the schedule gets tougher, Stafford’s effectiveness falls…shocking, huh?
I’d worry about his Week 17 at Baltimore, outside in December…but the weather will be unseasonably mild, and the threat of rain is reducing…and the Ravens have all their CBs dying off with injury (there’s a reason Burrow dropped 500+ on them last week).
-- If Stafford is going to be good for Week 17, then the receivers will go with him – and the Rams should attack the wounded secondary of Baltimore right from the opening bell.
Odell Beckham (4-37-1/8) is going to score another TD Week 17…he has scored a TD in four of his last 5 Rams games.
The Ravens are in such a bad way that even Van Jefferson (1-6-0/6) deserves Week 17 Flex consideration over better WRs who are stuck playing in frigid temps this week elsewhere.
Tyler Higbee (5-41-0/6) has a good upside in all this, as the Ravens have been one of the worst defenses in the league against the TE all season.
-- There’s nothing new I can tell you about the skills or target trends of the Vikings receivers at this point, no new news from this game. The biggest news affecting the Vikings offense is the weather in Green Bay on SNF Week 17.
Cold beyond belief. It’s going to hinder the offenses...it’s gonna create problems gripping, throwing, catching passes…the further downfield the worse. It’s not going to halt it all…but it will put quite a lid on upside, and it will create some underwhelming outputs.
Dalvin Cook is back for Week 17, and he may run the ball 25-30+ times in the mess…with a few screens, swings, shorter passes.
Justin Jefferson (8-116-0/12) is unbencable if he were playing on crutches, but he very well could have a 3-35-0/9 game Week 17 at the wrong time for you (or right time if you’re opposing).
K.J. Osborn (5-68-1/7) will start in place of Adam Thielen. He’ll see 4-8 targets and who knows how effective he will be off that. I like KJO sleeper hopes going in a dome more than the frozen tundra.
Tyler Conklin (4-41-0/5) isn’t 100% going into this game (hamstring) and he faces all the frozen aspects of the weather on his performance.
Kirk Cousins (27-38 for 315 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) will be throwing in the bitter cold against a very good+ Green Bay secondary. You have to think more like 1 passing TD in this game than 2…more under 250 yards than a 300+ event for sure. Maybe under 200 yards passing.
-- It’s gonna be cold for MIN-GB, so side note…are you really confident in Greg Joseph (3/3 FG, 2/2 XP) having a big game? Maybe he gets 2-4 short FG attempts (which means MIN is moving the ball all over GB???) but do you think he’s going to get any distance kicks in that weather? He’ll be kicking a half a brick ball.
Joseph has been one of the top FF kickers of 2021, in part due to his 50+ yard shots this season…they likely get taken away here…and if MIN gets down and it’s 4th & short in GB territory, are they kicking FGs…or ‘going for it’?
-- The Rams-DST has been ‘meh’ lately. They’ve allowed 23 or more points in five of their last 7 games. They held down JAX and SEA and gave up a lot of ‘stuff’ to SF-GB-TEN-ARI-MIN. Unless they face a garbage team, it’s not a slam-dunk start. The Ravens will have Tyler Huntley back this week (Lamar likely out)…he’s probably good enough there to push for 20+ points vs. LAR with his scrambling around and decent passer ways.
The Rams-DST isn’t bad vs. Huntley Week 17, but it’s not an obvious homerun.
Snap Counts of Interest:
68 = Kupp
67 = Van J
64 = OBJ
63 = Michel
05 = DHendo
02 = Funk
**College Football Metrics 2022…new season signups coming in January 2022**
The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!
The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…
Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.
- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 16: Raiders 17, Broncos 13
A dull game from two of the dullest teams in the entire league. Both teams would love to run the ball 50 times and grind out a 3 point win with their defense, and that's basically what we got here, an old-school coach's wet dream.
The score was 7-3 Raiders for most of the first half, but right before halftime the Broncos got 10 points off of Vegas turnovers including a near pick 6 after Bradley Chubb snuck out on a Derek Carr screen pass and nearly took it to the house.
Other than that 30 seconds though, the Raiders essentially dominated this game start to finish. Doesn't mean they are suddenly a good team. They are just less bad than Denver.
For Denver the issues are clear. 1) This is a very bad offensive line. They were getting absolutely dominated by the Raiders. 2) Melvin Gordon is done, cooked, finished. He is beyond awful at this point. It's been obvious all year to anyone with eyes that Javonte Williams should be not just the starter but the only back here. Gordon can't hold a candle to Williams and it's a massive wasted opportunity every time he takes a carry. And 3) Whoever is running the offense is an idiot because Gordon should not be taking carries and the play-calling is just terrible.
The Broncos scored 3 offensive points on their own in this game and it was not an accident. Let me describe a typical series for them.
1st and 10: Gordon run for -1 yard.
2nd and 11: Lock straight drop back with no play action, drops a dime on a WR who drops it
3rd and 11: Lock drops back against with no play action and is immediately pressured and takes a sack
This kind of thing was happening almost every single series. It was absolutely pathetic to watch. This entire Denver staff needs to go. They are simply too conservative and not doing their players any favors. This was a must-win game to try and make the playoffs and the coaching staff basically threw the game because they are so committed to a vanilla passing game and Melvin Gordon.
The Broncos fall to 7-8 with games against the Chargers and Chiefs remaining. It's theoretically possible that they could win out if the Chiefs have locked up the #1 seed and sit everyone week 18, but they would still need a host of other teams to all lose out to make the playoffs. It's not happening. Denver just blew their chances here. I have a feeling things are going to look very different with this team in 2022.
The Raiders manage to stay alive for the playoffs at 8-7 with games against the Colts and Chargers left. If the Colts are missing Carson Wentz that's huge for Vegas, and the Chargers have proven themselves to be quite beatable. If the Raiders can somehow win out to get to 10 wins they have a good shot at a wildcard spot because they'll have tiebreaks over the Colts, Chargers, and Dolphins, their most likely competitors for those final spots.
Fantasy Notes
--Drew Lock (15-22 for 153 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) looked alright here, something RC and I both noted in the preseason. He was really held back by his offensive line, drops, and a terrible game plan, but within all that chaos he played controlled ball, didn't make a single bad decision that I saw, and delivered accurate and catchable passes...that were dropped.
I would really like to see what Lock could do with better pieces around him and Gordon not constantly putting him in 3rd and long situations. There are tools to work with here. At times he looks like a lesser version of Josh Allen out there with the big arm and mobility. I'm not playing this up either. Let Javonte start, give him a respectable offensive line and not Pat Shurmur at offensive coordinator and I think we'd see Lock very differently.
Teddy Bridgewater still has not been medically cleared, so it seems unlikely that he'll be playing this week. There's no doubt in my mind anymore that Lock should be starting over him though and gives the Broncos the best chance to win.
--You just have to laugh at the Melvin Gordon (7-(-4)-0) stat line. It really was that bad. It wasn't all his fault as Javonte Williams (7-12-1) didn't fare much better, but where Gordon was getting a yard or two on his best runs, Javonte was breaking 2-3 tackles and getting positive yardage after getting swarmed in the backfield every play. There's no comparison between them.
Javonte still has hopes against the Chargers this week. If Rex Burkhead can rush for 140 yards then Javonte can do alright as well. I think he could be considered a RB1.5 or so this week. No Denzel Perryman and Maxx Crosby to ruin his day.
--The Zay Jones (6-50-0/8) WR 2.5 party continues. He's good for this kind of stat line just about every week now. This is a ball-control offense and he's the best non-Renfrow option the Raiders have to dump short passes to.
IDP Notes
--LB Jonas Griffith (13 tackles) is really coming on strong. An All-American performer for Div II Indiana State, he was an UDFA that signed with the 49'ers in 2020. Griffith bounced around a little before landing back on the SF practice squad.
During the 2021 preseason, Griffith was 3rd on the 49'ers in tackles while leading special teams in tackles. He even stood out to me as I made note of him during the first preseason game against the Chiefs:
“Another player around the ball an awful lot was 2nd year linebacker Jonas Griffith. He's got good size and was moving around well, registering 4 tackles and a couple of pass breakups including a near interception.”
George Paton and the Broncos made a trade for Griffith, presumably to help out with special teams as they were struggling with that at the time. I highly doubt Paton had any inkling that Griffith would be able to help out at LB, but if he did then kudos.
Griffith played his first 23 snaps of the season against Detroit two weeks ago racking up 5 tackles quickly, but injuries forced him into more snaps the following week against the Bengals and he responded with 9 tackles on about 80% of the defensive snaps.
After piling up 13 tackles here and looking pretty good doing it, it seems clear that Griffith has earned more playing time for the remainder of the season.
To my eye he's a fairly decent athlete if not spectacular. But much like his former teammate in SF, Azeez Al-Shaair, he just finds his way to the ball somehow, exactly like both guys did in college. I thought he did a little better job in coverage than in the run game, but when he's protected from blockers he does a really good job knifing through trash to make the tackle.
What 2022 holds for him we'll have to see as there are multiple more highly drafted guys ostensibly ahead of him when healthy, but his play may force the Broncos to take a look at that. In 2021 though he'll likely finish up the season as one of the starting ILB's and I like his chances to finish strong.
Snap Counts of Interest
38 = Fant
14 = Okwuegbunam
52 = Zay Jones
40 = Renfrow
36 = Jackson
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 16: Chiefs 36, Steelers 10
I’m not sure what is more embarrassing…
1) How bad the Steelers truly are. They are the worst team ‘still in the race’ from the playoffs in the NFL…along with the Falcons.
2) How bad the AFC North is…the Steelers still have a viable path to win the division, or worst case still get a wild card.
3) How poorly the Steelers played in this game. It was KC 23-0 at the half, and it wasn’t that close. It was 30-0 KC deep into the 3rd-quarter before the Steelers settled for a field goal to really give them a sweet mental boost about themselves…they scored three whole points and were only losing 30-3 now…much better for the team psyche.
It was soon 36-3 KC with a late junk-time TD getting us to the 36-10 beatdown final. The Steelers played like they weren’t even there as KC pushed all the backups in that they could and laughed up on the sidelines.
However, if the Bengals lose to KC Sunday Week 17…then the Week 17 MNF game between the Browns (7-8) at the Steelers (7-7-1) could position the winner for a division title if the were to win Week 18 as well. It’s not improbable that the Steelers win out and somehow find their way to the playoffs or division title. I would bet they don’t get to either because they are the worst…but this 2021 Steelers group always defies logic.
Kansas City is now (11-4) and in the driver’s seat for the #1 seed, but Tennessee is very much alive if KC loses one game ahead, and if they lose to Cincy this week…then the Bengals are suddenly in the #1 seed race. You assume KC will pull it out, but Tennessee has a great path as well…having already beaten KC for any tiebreaker.
Pittsburgh Dad’s take of this game always sums it up better than I can: https://youtu.be/7gt9GOVRXtQ
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Brace yourself for this shocking news, but Clyde Edwards-Helaire (9-27-1, 1-4-0/1) got hurt in this game and is likely/going to miss Week 17.
You ‘work hard’ to get those Dynasty Rookie #1 Draft picks and they have been disappointments within 2-3 years, if not one year, in retrospect. CEH is one of the worst #1.01 DRD picks in recent history…seeing how most had to take CEH over Jonathan Taylor. I bought into that logic for a bit at the start of the post-Draft valuations of their Dynasty Rookie Draft year…the notion that the KC landing spot was too juicy, despite JT being 2x the player/talent. I later switched to just ranking/taking Taylor as the summer went on, but then swapped back to CEH slightly due to his real world (to trade) value – but in reality, I advised to trade your 1st-round DRD picks for a haul…and did so again last year, and probably will again in 2022. The #1.01 DRD pick steak is never as good as the sizzle (*see, also: the #1 pick in your redraft).
Just like in the future – those that were faced with the choice, and my rankings never changed on it either, those that ranked/picked Najee Harris 1.01 over Javonte Williams are going to regret down the line. And maybe will regret not taking Kyle Pitts 1.01 over any of them as well. I digress…
With CEH out, we all assume Darrel Williams (11-55-0, 3-30-0/5) will be the obvious play…and he is. But don’t overlook how much opportunity Derrick Gore (12-43-0, 3-61-0/3) may get. It’s a big game with Cincy this week, so I’m not sure how much KC wants to mess around with a UDFA rookie type (Gore) versus the experienced hand of Williams…but KC has been pushing Gore more and more little tastes/touches to get him ready. Gore-Williams might be a cleaner/as good as version of the CEH-Williams duo.
If KC gets up and subdues Cincy, like they did here to Pitt…then Gore may surprise with the later-in-game touches he gets from Williams. Maybe. Something to watch/consider down in deeper roster leagues.
-- Yes, I know Najee Harris (19-93-0, 5-17-0/7) sucks and is becoming an FF-letdown, but he gets volume. Even in this pathetic game, he got 11 FF points, 16 PPR pts. You’ll take it. He’s a 50-50 shot each week to get a 1-yard plunge. Again, it’s not his fault exclusively…he has no O-Line or offensive game plan to help hide his flaws and play to his strengths. He’s been visually terrible (for a ‘top guy’) but is the #4 RB in raw total PPR points tallied this season-to-date (only Taylor, Ekeler, Mixon better).
My note on Najee here is not to take another jab at him, but just to note – if you’re playing Najee for FF this week…be sure to have a MNF guy in reserve just in case the worst news hits on Monday morning/pregame. If you are not using ____ player playing Sunday 1pmET, and this is it/there is no game next week/this is the title game, then you should cut those players loose by like 12:55pmET (or whatever close to your deadline) to give yourself open spaces to grab anything you might need later that day or for Monday pregame if Najee gets COVID or whatever.
You should already consider adding Bennie Snell now if your roster will allow it, to protect any Najee bad news in advance (because if your opponent is smart, they will drop useless players and grab Snell to block you – and if your opponent is going Najee, you consider doing the same to block them). D’Ernest Johnson is a deeper option playing Monday if a Najee-Monday crisis hits. Leave nothing to chance.
If it’s a great player you would consider cutting before 1pmET Sunday, maybe you don’t do it -- for fear your opponents would quick grab and use them…you’ll have to see how close you want to cut it, but all other depth randos who play at 1pmET Sunday and they are not starting for you nor would they for your opponent, clear them out before 1pmET/whatever your deadline is. Keep your roster spots flexible for any bad news that could happen later that day or Monday.
-- Same mindset for Diontae Johnson (6-51-1/9)…and whether you use Najee or Diontae, they should be in your Flex so if something happens you can replace them with a player at any position available for your Flex.
I just want to note: that if Diontae goes out…Chase Claypool (4-41-0/6) would become the Diontae…but so would Ray-Ray McCloud share in those responsibilities.
A target comparison on them since Week 13…
Ray-Ray: 4-8-3-8 (23 total)
Claypool: 3-9-2-6 (20)
Washington: 1-6-5-2 (14)
A snaps comparison on them since Week 12…
Ray-Ray: 67%-85%-67%-62%
Claypool: 63%-59%-63%-82%
Washington: 37%-41%-35%-31%
-- Tyreek Hill (2-19-0/2) had a terrible FF game at the wrong time, but it was nothing on him…this game was a joke and they rolled it up on offense using secondary figures, because the Steelers are so awful. Hill played barely half the game. If this cost you a trip to Week 17…blame how bad the Steelers suck, not Tyreek or St. Patrick.
Byron Pringle (6-75-2/7) had his first huge FF game of the season. It was just random. The four games before this, Pringle had 2-4-1-4 for targets in a game for just 5-2-3-5 PPR points. No breakout here. Kelce being out helped push this too…along with Tyreek playing half a game.
Pringle got the bump here. Josh Gordon (0-0-0/3) did not. Gordon is a joke. Four catches on 12 targets in 10 games for Gordon as a Chief. Wow. Great job by the GM making sure Mahomes has plenty of weapons…
Snap Counts of Interest:
55 = Pringle
46 = Dem Robinson
30 = Hardman
29 = Tyreek
50 = Gray
25 = B Bell
29 = Darrel W
21 = CEH
19 = Gore
65 = Diontae
59 = Claypool
45 = McCloud
28 = Cody White
22 = J Wash
**College Football Metrics 2022…new season signups coming in January 2022**
The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!
The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…
Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 16: Packers 24, Browns 22
The Packers seemed to have this game under control all game. The Browns fired out to a 6-0 lead after their first drive but then the Pack just took control from there and eventually had a two-score lead going into the 4th-quarter, with the Browns turning the ball over like crazy…I thought (during the live watch) that GB would win by 3+ scores in the end.
But the Browns kept hanging in there and then suddenly it was a 2-point game, and the Browns got the ball back with 2:05 left, and were in perfect position to win the game. But, of course, another bad interception and…ball game.
The Browns fall to (7-8) but still have a decent path to the playoffs, and winning the division. If CLE wins out and Cincy loses to KC Week 17, the Browns are AFC North champions. But if the Bengals beat KC this week (which they have a good shot to), then the Browns are done…before they get to their MNF game. However that it all shakes out, I don’t think the Browns are going to make it – the Bengals are a better team all-around, plus Baltimore still has paths, etc. Too many hurdles for the Browns to get to the finish line/playoffs, but if they win out it’s very possible they sneak in.
The Packers (12-4) are cruising towards a #1 seed, but if they lose one of their next two games and Dallas and the Rams wins out…then Dallas is the #1 seed. The Packers MUST get that home field advantage to get back to the Super Bowl, in my opinion. No home field, then all the other teams are on even footing with Green Bay playing in Florida (TB) or in domes (DAL, LAR, ARI). Preserving this Week 16 with a final drive stand/turnover/win over the Browns was huge in the big picture.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The biggest thing I can report about this game is not about this game, but about next week’s game. The Packers will play Week 17 vs. MIN at Lambeau Field…and it will be one of the coldest football games in recent NFL history, one of the coldest played in Green Bay in the last decade or two.
4-5 degrees, feels like -10. Not good…not good for offensive output in the passing game, or otherwise really.
In very cold weather games, Aaron Rodgers (24-34 for 202 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT) usually throws for around 200 yards and is super-efficient with 2-3 TD passes. But this one is going to be extra cold. Whatever his output is…it’s not likely to be a crazy 300+ yards, 3-4+ TD ‘smash’ event. He’s likely to be very subdued in his output…it is going to be frickin’ freezing out there.
-- With the weather outlook, I wouldn’t try to deploy Allen Lazard (2-45-1/5) or a (if) returning Marquez Valdes-Scantling (DNP/COVID) either…it’s not worth it. Not worth trying to stack or otherwise. One of them may score a TD…but I bet Davante-Dillon-Jones-Lewis has an edge not long TD guys like MVS, especially.
-- The weather is built for A.J. Dillon (12-66-0, 5-21-0/6)…I’m thinking back to that bad weather game this time last season (colder, snowing, sloppy) where Dillon broke out with a star performance – 21 carries, 124 yards, 2 TDs v. TEN…as Aaron Jones took a backseat.
It will be a likely split of some kind between Dillon-Jones, but the scales tip (in theory) in the favor of Dillon in this type of weather.
-- The Browns will play in some cold weather on MNF Week 17, but not near what MIN v. GB will have to endure.
I expect the Browns to go all-in on heavy-touch-count Nick Chubb (17-126-1, 3-58-0/4) with Kareem Hunt (DNP-ankle) still not 100% but in a minor role…if he’s back, and then D’Ernest Johnson (4-58-0, 1-8-0/2) ready if Hunt is out.
D’Ernest has come into games, sparingly, with Hunt out and been terrific with his few touches per game the last few weeks. No big drop-off from Hunt-to-D’Ernest. And D’Ernest is playing so well it really makes the 2022 offseason the right time for CLE to trade the aging asset in Hunt at a peak market value.
-- The Browns have to go heavy Chubb as a game plan for a number of reasons…but one big reason is Baker Mayfield (26-36 for 222 yards, 2 TDs/4 INTs) is all banged up and is probably hurting this team more than he thinks he’s helping.
In Baker's last five games, he’s (2-3) with 7 TD passes, 8 interceptions…completing around 55% of his passes. It’s not good for the Browns…it’s not good for the Browns passing game options for FF output. I would not want to use ANY Browns WR/TE option this week for FF.
-- On my Tuesday Night Video Q&A, I turned heel on Donovan Peoples-Jones (1-5-0/6) because I read a report that I THOUGHT was a quote from Kevin Stefanski on how he’s wanting Anthony Schwartz’s (1-5-1/1) role to grow and play more snaps ahead -- and that the snaps would come from DPJ. It’s an odd thing to say, but coaches mean things like that when they give specifics. However…
I went back to clip the quote to add it to this section…and…I can’t find it. I did find where BEAT WRITERS reported the Stefanski comments that Schwartz was earning more snaps, but then they shoehorned in their own assumptions that Donovan Peoples-Jones would give up snaps because of it. They made it seem like Stefanski said it, or I read it wrong/too fast, but either way/apparently it’s just idiot FF writers running with ‘theories’.
I was ready to buy it because DPJ has caught 13-of-31 (41.9%) targets the past five games as more of the ‘#1 WR’, but I know a lot of it is Baker injury/Mullens’s one-time start and that Stefanski likes DPJ.
So…I need to correct my bad assumption from the Video Q&A…
1) DPJ is not for sure losing snaps/is not in the doghouse with Stefanski.
2) I need to bump DPJ back up in my Dynasty Stash rankings, after slicing him down on this (bad/misinformed) news.
3) Schwartz is still a ‘keep an eye on’ option for this week on MNF…a pickup last second if Diontae goes down with COVID Monday morning type thing.
More snaps for Schwartz can come off Rashard Higgins…and remember when Demetric Felton was so good that supposedly earned more snaps? He has been a ghost since Stefanski said that around Weeks 2-3.
-- Another solid performance for the Packers-DST here, aided by Baker issues…4 picks, 5.0 sacks.
The Vikings are a solid offense/tougher matchup for the GB-DST in Week 17 but considering the -10 ‘feels like’…we think GB-DST is a possible top 5-10 DST again this week. No Adam Thielen either, FYI.
Snap Counts of Interest:
33 = A Jones
26 = Dillon
33 = Deguara
25 = M Lewis
13 = Tyler Davis
59 = DPJ
54 = Landry
44 = Higgins
11 = Schwartz
41 = Chubb
26 = D’Ernest Johnson
04 = Felton
**College Football Metrics 2022…new season signups coming in January 2022**
The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!
The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…
Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 15: Falcons 20, Lions 16
Another week where the Lions play better than their opponents and have a shot to win late but blow it…down four with under a minute, and driving, and then they throw an interception at the goal line…ball game. The Lions could have a .500/winning record this year, with the way they’ve played/ the games they had in their grasp…but it’s been coached/(bad) lucked into a 2-12-1 record instead.
The Lions are a half a game behind from the #1 pick in the NFL Draft, but there’s little/no chance Jacksonville will do them a favor and win a game…but getting the #1 or #2 pick doesn’t mean much, since most high draft picks are butchered and the best players from drafts typically are not from the top 10…or even in the 1st-round. But it is an asset to trade, so getting to the #1 spot is something to shoot for…but I don’t think Detroit will get to it.
The Falcons are now (7-8)…the worst (7-8) team in the history of football. AND they still have a chance at the playoffs if they win out…but they won’t – facing at BUF and NO to finish the season. The Falcons need a lot of overhauling this offseason – they need a new QB, a makeover of the O-Line, and a change of head coach…but it’s possible they will do none of those three.
Urban Meyer was the worst coach in football this year, and David Culley is trying to grab that mantle…but the worst coach I’ve seen this year from a scheme, and usage, and relation to the players standpoint is by far Arthur Smith. This will not end well in time…unless he gets an elite QB to save him from himself for 2022+…or if the Titans trade him Derrick Henry.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Cordarrelle Patterson (7-14-1, 1-0-0/1) in his last 4 games (since Week 13)…
7.8 FF PPG (9.8 PPR PPG) on…
11.8 carries, 42.5 rush yards (3.6 ypc), 2.0 rec. (4.5 targets), 5.8 rec. yds, 0.50 TDs per game.
If I wanted to push an RB (or WR) getting 40-50 total yards a game and two catches a game for you to start this week, you would think I was crazy. If you WANTED an RB/WR who was getting 50 total yards a game with 2 catches per…I could name 25+ names off waivers who could accomplish that.
Thus, is the recent plight of CPatt, recently.
He’s rushed for a couple short scores to make it not horrible for FF a couple of those weeks, but his recent results are FF-terrible compared to where he was at to start the season. His PPR points in each game the last four games: 12-14-4-8
It’s not CP’s fault. When he goes in a direction off the snap…half of the defense heads in the same direction. He has little blocking, defenses are stacking him some, and defenses don’t respect his QB so they will stack CP. Arthur Smith is too stupid to use him in the pass game more to free him up. Patterson has been under 40 yards receiving in eight of his last 9 games…after starting the season with 55+ rec. yards in four of his first 5 games.
The trend has been winding down for several weeks and has been a disaster the past two weeks. I have no idea why it would turn this week…in ‘feels like’ 5-10 degree weather in Buffalo Week 17.
-- Kyle Pitts (6-102-0/6) finally had another spike game. Just two targets at halftime…and then a floated bomb down the sidelines in the 4th-quarter that he caught one-handed for 35 yards took this from another ‘meh’ game to a solid TE1 effort. Nothing that different happened here than in his recent duds except he wasn’t doubled as much/broke away from it a few more times…and got the one-handed bomb catch to push the numbers. The intent of the offense, the direction of the game plan…same old, same old.
Kyle Pitts has scored 1 TD this season…one.
Kyle Pitts hasn’t scored a TD in his last 10 games.
PPR points in every game since Week 8 = 3-9-10-6-4-5-9-11-12-18. Usually under 12 points in any game and would’ve been near it in this game if he didn’t stab that 35-yarder with his big mitt.
The trends say Pitts is a TE2 more than TE1…so, how will he be that big of an FF-opportunity in Week 17 in ‘feels like’ 5-10 degrees against a smart BUF defense that will double him (like everyone), and has the manpower and coaching to do it effectively? He’s just a random hope Week 17…the hope that he has that ‘one play’ to tip the scales.
The thing is…Kyle Pitts is probably the best single rookie talent from this 2021 class. A ‘generational’ receiving TE. It’s hard to bench him because he can be special at any moment. With most TE1 hopes, you get a guy you know catches 3-5 passes for 30-50 yards and you hope gets a TD to make him a great FF-play that week. Pitts is a rare TE that you don’t know if he might go 6 catches for 100+ yards in-game at any moment. I know Gerald Everett or Cole Kmet or Tyler Higbee or Tyler Conklin or Pat Freiermuth or any number of guys are not going there like that each week, or any week that I’d expect it…but Pitts has that hope every week that he might no matter what the circumstances. And if I told you in any given week a TE went off for like a monster 7 catches for 200 yards type of game…you would guess it to be Pitts before Kelce or Knox or Gronk, etc.
Pitts is going to be special, but there’s work to do at QB to help him…then at WR…then at RB to change the scenario so teams can’t always double Pitts, and even when they do he has to have a QB that can deliver laser beams to him in tight windows. Matt Ryan is not that guy.
-- Because Pitts spiked up Week 16, Russell Gage (4-37-0/5) dipped down a bit in output…he had been a WR1 for the past few weeks, but the Falcons barely had the ball (42 offensive plays for ATL) and with limited output from the offense, and Pitts having a bigger week…Gage suffered.
I like Gage as a talent, but you can’t trust him Week 17 in the cold at Buffalo. You can’t trust this ATL offense as a whole.
-- OK…OK…I’m on board with Amon-Ra St. Brown (9-91-1/11). Just 2-3-4-5 weeks too late.
I still don’t get it. I watched him a lot on tape the past few weeks. He’s not doing anything impressive or amazing, just simple routes, easy passes, the option is there, it’s like a running play, the Lions take it. For FF, it’s been wonderful…so, ride it while you can.
This Week 17 at Seattle…possible rain…should be OK.
-- Tim Boyle (24-34 for 187 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) played a solid game…until he threw the late pick to cost the team the game. Honestly, you could not tell much of a difference between him and Jared Goff. Boyle is a perfect backup…not good enough to really start/head up a franchise, but good enough to work fine in an emergency. He’s not better/worse than Taylor Heinicke.
-- The reason the Lions lost this game was not because of the Boyle pick late at the goal line. No…it was the inexplicable decision by Dan Campbell to push Jamaal Williams (19-77-0) working more over Craig Reynolds (11-29-0, 3-22-0/4). The whole offense slowed down when Williams got the ball. Reynolds fought for/made key first downs and made nice catches in the passing game. Had the team just started Reynolds and let Williams watch, the Lions would have won and Reynolds would have had 150+ total yards and at least one score.
Swift, Williams, or Reynolds…I take Reynolds for the future, but the Lions will go heavy Swift. Reynolds has been that impressive, to me, as an all around back.
I will be a full believer in Dan Campbell if he fires Anthony Lynn at the end of the season. He already took the offense away from him, in large part. I’ll believe Campbell is a man of his word, and has a brain, if he dumps Lynn right after the season ends. I suspect part of Detroit’s overall 2021 issues winning games has to do with Lynn as a butcher of NFL offenses.
Snap Counts of Interest:
26 = Mike Davis
25 = Patterson
(another reason not to trust CPatt next week…inexplicable)
01 = Ollison
40 = Zaccheaus (played 15 more offensive snaps than Patterson)
40 = Gage
36 = Pitts
28 = Jamaal Williams
27 = Craig Reynolds
10 = Igwebuike
**College Football Metrics 2022…new season signups coming in January 2022**
The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!
The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…
Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.
- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 16: Eagles 34, Giants 10
This game was somehow 3-3 at the half, but in the next 20 minutes after halftime the Eagles stomped on the accelerator and scored 31 straight points to put the poor Giants out of their misery.
As I speculated last week, the Eagles have become a really solid squad. They have been destroying weaker teams for weeks now. They draw a dying Washington team next week for what should be another comfortable victory, and they finish up with Dallas in week 18. They can no longer win the NFC East due to some weird strength of schedule tiebreaker that was triggered by the Raiders beating the Broncos, but a wildcard spot is still very much in reach.
The Giants are just pathetic at this point. The defense isn't that bad and the offensive skill positions are absolutely loaded, but as with most bad teams, QB and offensive line are a problem. I'd like to see Gettleman get one more chance to fix those problems but he likely won't get it.
Fantasy Notes
--Miles Sanders broke his hand here, so Philly will roll with a duo of Boston Scott (12-41-1) and Jordan Howard (9-37-0) against a Washington run defense that is breaking down so badly that teammates Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen got into a fight on the sidelines of their game.
It's a great spot for the two RB's, and I expect a 50-50 split between them with Howard perhaps taking a few more carries and Scott getting a couple catches. Both guys look like upside RB2's this week. Just have to hope Hurts doesn't vulture all the TD's (or you could start Hurts and hope that he does!).
--Love the growth we're seeing from Devonta Smith (5-80-1/7). There's still no consistent connection week to week with him and Hurts, but I like how Smith is figuring out how to separate. He's going to be a very good WR next year. How good will depend more on Hurts's growth or lack of growth as a passer. Even if Hurts remains a somewhat limited passer though, I still see room for a WR1 here with Smith provided they start targeting him more. I think it'll happen in 2022.
--What happened to Dallas Goedert (2-28-0/4)? It was a near-miss game for him. He dropped two passes but also had a TD called back for a holding penalty. It was very nearly a 5-60-1 type of day which would have been pretty good. Still, it seems like the Giants might have some special sauce for holding him down because they did the same thing to him a couple weeks ago. Love Goedert again this week against Washington. When they played two weeks ago he dropped 7-135-0 on them.
--Jake Fromm started for a while and it was as bad as could be expected. He could barely complete a pass with his weak arm and complete lack of pass protection. To be fair it would be hard for any QB when you're getting hit literally every play. But Fromm isn't good enough to even attempt to make something out of this disaster situation. He really shouldn't even be a backup. Very likely he'll be on the sidelines in a couple years and try to follow the Kellen Moore path.
--You know who did look good? Kadarius Toney. He's moving around like a star receiver again. No issues there. Unfortunately, it's most likely not going to mean a whole lot with Mike Glennon back at QB and this same terrible offensive line, but there was a definite plan to get Toney the ball. He was the first look here despite playing far fewer snaps than Slayton or Golladay, more so with Fromm than Glennon. The QB's know who the star player is at least.
There is some mild hope here playing a bad Chicago secondary this week (but frigid temps on the field are a concern). I do think Toney could be considered a flex option as a WR2.5-3 with upside.
--Saquon Barkley has no upside. He's fine but this offensive line is maybe the worst in the league and he's not even taking the most snaps anymore, Booker is. There's just nowhere to run and Barkley is getting hit almost immediately on every carry. I'm not even sure he's a RB3 at this point. That's how bad things are. I don't think you can start him this week against Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith.
IDP Notes
--Both TJ Edwards and Alex Singleton are killing it for fantasy IDP leagues. Edwards is averaging over 10 tackles per game over his last 8 games and Singleton is among the league leaders with nearly 130 tackles on the year.
Snap Counts of Interest
61 = Slayton
61 = Golladay
39 = Toney
41 = Booker
26 = Barkley
22 = Howard
20 = Scott
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 16: Colts 22, Cardinals 16
This was a bigger disaster than the football world will make of it, for Arizona. Indy entered this game with O-Line corrupted with COVID/injury…three starters out. Then they lost the heart and soul of their defense (Darius Leonard) right before the game due to COVID, along with top SAF Khari Willis. In-game, the Colts lost another O-Lineman and dealt with a few other injuries. This should have been a Cardinals crush party…but it was the other way around.
It wasn’t due to turnovers or anything fluky…this was Indy just handling the Cardinals. The better team won. And when you consider how many key injuries the Colts dealt with, and still manhandled the Cardinals – this is the straw that broke the Cardinals back. They are going to make the playoffs, but they are done for the season. Their soul ripped out and stomped on in this game…a three-game losing streak to mostly teams they should never lose to (namely the Lions Wk15)…including the Colts here, given the state of injury they were in.
Arizona has gone from sneaky Super Bowl pick, and possible D-C Vance Joseph up for head coaching jobs to…’Is Kingsbury the right man for the job?’ Sports talk chatter. It’s a legit question…for another time. We need to stay focused on info for Week 17 FF title games.
Arizona falls to (10-5) but they are all but assured of a playoff spot, even if they lose out. They will likely lose the NFC West to the Rams, but we’ll see in this bizarre year of COVID 2.0. If Arizona has the same record as LAR by the end of the season – Arizona holds all the tiebreak advantages. Whatever Arizona does…they aren’t going to be a #1 seed in the NFC, and they likely aren’t getting out of the 1st-round. This team is dying to the finish.
Indy gets a massive win, given the circumstances, to go to (9-6)…but even if they win out, Tennessee is virtually assured of being the AFC South champ unless Indy wins out and TEN loses out the final two games…but the Titans have Miami and at Houston to go…there’s at least one win there…you’d think. Indy is cruising for a top wild card sport now.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- I’m not sure what’s wrong with Kyler Murray (27-43 for 245 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 4-74-0). I don’t see anything wrong with him per se, more a general overall slump/drought for the offense.
Perhaps, it’s the lack of DeAndre Hopkins…which, if the case, is pretty sad that the Cardinals have invested in Kirk-Green-Ertz and Kyler can’t do a thing with them.
Perhaps, it’s another later season collapse post-return from injury for Kyler…which happened last season as well? He doesn’t look hindered, though.
We can dissect this in the offseason because right now all the focus is on Week 17 for (most all) FF titles…so how do we play this for Week 17? Well, it’s not great going into Week 17 because Detroit’s defense flustered him Week 15, then Indy’s semi-depleted defense flustered him Week 16. What do we think Dallas’s defense will do to him Week 17…the best of the three defenses I just mentioned? Kyler is likely going to be a lower-end QB1 Week 17…where, if needed, you hope and pray he clicks back into form.
Kyler doesn’t look bad, but he’s not good/great, that’s for sure. The offense just looks slightly off, and more (me reading into it) they just look uninspired. Kyler has a fatal flaw to go with his ton of talent – he’s not a leader of men. He’s not an aggressive/never-say-die type…he’s a whiner/pouter, and he’s been coddled his whole life and is coddled today by his coddling coach. There’s no grit to Kingsbury…there’s no grit to Kyler…thus, there’s no grit to the Arizona Cardinals in times of trouble. They’re failing in clincher games, and on national TV games. Kyler is a finesse player it appears who wilts some under the spotlight.
He’s been great for FF the last two seasons for about 10-13 weeks and then has stumbled to the finish line and been hurt (and that may be the cause of the stumble).
One way or another, it’s something to worry about into the future…and into Week 17. I think he/they can kick it into gear, but I have low confidence in it Week 17…but there is some confidence/hope for it. It does not look terminal…but now it is making me nervous, as a Kyler fan/owner.
My instincts of last (2020) DYNASTY season to trade Kyler for Justin Herbert+ and or Josh Allen+…I thought maybe it was premature seeing Kyler’s performance early in the 2021 season, but now I’m thinking, Dynasty-wise, that your future is probably better with Herbert/Allen. We’ll re-examine in the 2022 offseason.
-- We now know what the Hopkins-gone WR pecking order for Kyler is…
#1) Christian Kirk (8-54-0/13) is the clear top guy…even though he was a ghost for three quarters.
#2) Antoine Wesley (2-29-1/4) got limited targets, but they were all good targets…end zone/deep ball shots.
#3) A.J. Green (1-33-0/3)…Kyler has virtually no connection/same page look with AJG.
-- You can stick a fork in the Arizona-DST, they are done. Hot first 10+ weeks and then a collapse at the end. Why? I don’t know. Would have been nice to have J.J. Watt still there, but that’s not a reason for a defense to go from top 3-5 to a collapse. Thumped by the Lions Week 14. Thumped by a besieged Colts O-Line here. Week 17 at Dallas is not favorable.
What about the Indy-DST? They have kinda swapped places with Arizona…the Colts now have the most opportunistic defense out there, but note they lost Darius Leonard right before this game with COVID, but then he went on IR for the rest of the regular season. That is a big hit to the heart and soul of this defense – but facing Las Vegas Week 17, they might be able to be a DST1 hope with such a strong unit overall.
E.J. Speed (9 tackles) is a pretty good fill-in for Leonard, and a decent IDP sleeper the next few weeks.
-- Chase Edmonds (16-56-1, 8-71-0/9) was fine here in lieu of James Conner (DNP)...this is the type game he can have when the Cardinals aren't blowing opponents out like they were the 1st-half of the season. We need him involved in the passing game with Arizona chasing opponents not way up big and just trudging to victory with Conner. Of course, we love Edmonds with Conner out/away...and that may be the case again this week vs. Dallas. This was the Edmonds I was drafting all preseason, but it didn't work out...until Week 16...
-- Matt Prater (1/3 FG, 1/2 XP) was the #4 scoring kicker in FF the last 3 weeks, and he was helping many run to and through the FF-playoffs, but picked a bad time to forget how to kick…2 missed FGs and a missed XP here on top of all the other Cardinals troubles. Who knows what might have been had Prater hit those early FGs?
Is it a concern for him going into Week 17? Maybe. He’s a veteran, but he also just kinda-sorta cost his team the game here. He’s kicking indoors Week 17, which is good (but that was true here too). He has been good…which is good, but this now recent egg…who knows if it lingers with his confidence? I’m inclined to stick by him, where I have him.
-- For what it is worth, Budda Baker (12 tackles, 1 sack, 2 TFLs, 1 PD) played his arse off…his first ‘Budda-like’ game in a long time this season…for IDP results. Maybe he’s got some upside Week 17 as a spot start DB, if he’s trying to win games on his own as this Arizona defense collapses.
Snap Counts of Interest:
56 = AJG
55 = Kirk
50 = Wesley
05 = Isabella
63 = Alie-Cox
02 = Doyle (hurt)
**College Football Metrics 2022…new season signups coming in January 2022**
The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!
The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…
Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.
