R.C. Fischer

FFM

21 September 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 2: Cardinals 34, Vikings 33

I just watched tape of two of the better teams in the NFL…like, a player or two away from being serious Super Bowl contenders…like, legit threat to win their division type teams.

This was an entertaining game with some spicy units on either side of the field. It’s a shame the game was settled by a missed field goal as time expired, although I always enjoy Mike Zimmer getting burned by his kickers – he deserves it, as he watches Daniel Carlson become one of the best kickers in the league. Zimmer is a total jerk in general…and 10x a jerk towards his kickers, and thus his kickers always fail him and he then thinks his attitude is warranted – when he’s the one causing it.

Let me commence with some bombastic statements after watching these teams for a second time this season…

*The Vikings may possess one of the 3-5 best offenses in the NFL. K.J. Osborn’s emergence has changed this offense.

*Arizona has the best, most menacing defense in the NFL. I don’t care that the Vikings jumped on them early (see note above on the prowess of the MIN offense). The Vikings scored a TD on the 2nd play of the game in a broken coverage wide-open deep ball. They scored their next TD when a CB slipped in coverage and left Adam Thielen open for a red zone easy TD strike. Minny scored another TD with 8+ minutes left in the 2nd-quarter. 22 minutes into this game it was 20-7 Vikings.

In the final 38 minutes, the Vikings never scored an offensive TD again, and didn’t convert a 3rd-down again until late in the game. Arizona outscored the Vikings 27-13 over those final 38 minutes to walk away with the win.

*Oh, and Arizona has one of the best 3-5 offenses in the NFL too. Maybe one good O-Lineman away from being arguably the best offense in the NFL…better than the Chiefs…that’s how good this offense is getting (because of Kyler).

Minnesota has lost two games they coulda/shoulda won…they should be (2-0). They went toe-to-toe with two of the better defenses in the NFL…yes, the Bengals defense is now pretty solid. When this Vikings offense/team catches a break in the schedule, they might really shine/wow some people. It may start Week 3 hosting Seattle – a best bet for Week 3…Vikings +1.5 over Seattle at the loudest stadium, about the only home field advantage place left in the NFL.

The Vikings are a cornerback away from winning the NFC North. How did they not get in on getting Bradley Roby from Houston? Does the GM and HC want to be fired in Minnesota?

These are two of the better teams in the NFL…maybe one player away from being a serious NFC title contender. Arizona might just be the best team in the NFC in a few more weeks…but their O-Line may be the thing that holds them back from getting there.

Arizona is sitting +500 (which is 4th place out of the 4 NFC West teams) to win the NFC West right now – I’m telling you they are going to win that division (if Kyler stays healthy/the team stays relatively healthy). +1600 for Arizona to win the NFC is a flyer bet to cheer on. *Using FanDuel odds.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Can we start to say that Kyler Murray (29-36 for 400 yards, 3 TDs/2 INTs, 5-31-1) is the best Fantasy QB in the game? Kyler beat Mahomes, and all QBs in FF PPG (4pts per pass TD) last season (Weeks 1-16) and he might do it again this year…with even more distance.

We know what Kyler adds with his legs, but the Mahomes-like passer ability is coming into focus. He is making some throws that are ‘wow’. He’s always been able to, but this Air Raid has been so nothing and the O-Line has been so shaky for two years, it’s made Kyler a scramble for his life thrower and most everything desperately to DeAndre Hopkins. But now the O-Line is the best he’s had (but still ‘meh’ with upside), and a big change/upgrade is Chase Edmonds as the best RB for this offense…and Rondale Moore has changed the entire passing game…and he’s just getting warmed up.

Everything around Kyler is upgraded this offseason…and he was already the top FF QB in 4pts last season.

Remember, when I pushed everyone to move up in Dynasty Rookie Drafts…to sell your souls…to get Kyler in that Rookie Draft? Still rather have Josh Jacobs…or are you happy with Kyler?

I’m a big Kyler fan, but I doubted he was going to take that next step from B+ to A…but he’s taking that next step right now. He might be underway on an MVP season.

 -- Also, QB praise for the very underrated Kirk Cousins (22-32 for 244 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT)…he just had a very good game against the toughest defense in the NFL.

K.J. Osborn (5-91-1/6) added to this offense, to push it to a legit 3WR set offense…with a very good Cousins, and the greatness of Dalvin Cook (22-131-0, 2-17-0/3) – this is a top 5 or so offense in the league in the making.

 -- Let’s talk about the WRs changing these offenses…

The aforementioned Osborn…he’s like adding another Justin Jefferson to this offense. Arguably the most explosive WR group in the NFL now…that’s how nice Osborn is. However, you can’t go too hot after Osborn for FF because he’s definitely 3rd in the pecking order…but he’s a legit WR3 floor with WR2 hopes to the upside.

Rondale Moore (7-114-1/8) is a star in the making, but he’s developing so fast that he might be a star WR by Weeks 3-4. He’s the perfect piece…the missing piece to make everything in this Air Raid go to another level. I’ve never seen the Arizona offense, or Kyler look so good as they did in this game, and I think Rondale has a lot to do with that. And I wouldn’t be surprised if Rondale topples all of Justin Jefferson’s rookie record WR numbers this season.

Moore is going to be a mega-star for FF…he’s built/designed to be an FF weapon of mass destruction. He’d be costly to acquire today but might be worth it.

Side note: Moore had one long TD in this game…and he missed a 2nd on a jet sweep 1-yard short of a score.

 -- Chase Edmonds (8-46-0, 5-29-0/5) is also a perfect piece for this Air Raid. 4.5 rec., 90.5 total yards per game…just no TDs yet. He’s 4+ catches a game easy and 10x better than the slug James Conner…the entire offense grinds to a halt when Conner comes in. It’s the achilles heel of the offense…wasting plays with Conner in.

 -- What got into Maxx Williams (7-94-0/7)? I think he had more catches in this game than he has for his entire career. More catches in this game than all TEs in the Kliff Kingsbury era.

Can it sustain? I mean, if Kyler wants it to…but this offense has never wanted to work the TE much before…and with all their weapons, why would they change it now? You FFPC/TE bonus folks can take a look, but I don’t think it’s going to work…but it looked promising for this one game.

 -- Danielle Hunter (7 tackles, 3.0 sacks) is back. With Hunter back, and Nick Vigil (8 tackles, 1 INT TD) taking over the Eric Wilson spot…and Anthony Barr returning – the Vikings are two CBs away from being a top 10 NFL team, but their terrible cover skills kill them.

 -- No defense in the NFL is as good as Arizona, in my book. Buffalo is really good. The Panthers are coming on. Full strength Pittsburgh is up there. Full strength New Orleans with Bradley Roby soon…might be a top contender. None are moving and playing like the Cardinals.

Arizona is not perfect. They're not as fully great in the secondary as you’d like, but pretty stout (and watch Malcolm Butler just walk back in to re-join this team now that it is becoming an epic defense machine). But what is so impressive about Arizona’s defense is the speed they play with. They might end Week 2 as the best defense on 3rd-downs…and doing so against pretty solid offenses/QBs. This is not an elite defense, but I think it’s the closest to one that I’m seeing on tape. It’s not there yet, but it’s close.

Week 3 at Jacksonville could be a bloodbath/great event for DST scoring for Arizona.

Four Arizona D notes…

1) Jordan Hicks (6 tackles, 1 PD) is starting, and played 97% of the snaps. Supposed starter Zaven Collins (1 tackles, 2 PDs) is not starting and played 41% of the snaps. That’s the way it should be right now. This defense is better with Hicks starting.

2) Isaiah Simmons (8 tackles, 1 FF) is playing out of his mind…but they still should’ve drafted an O-Lineman, just like they should have in 2021 instead of Collins. Regardless, he’s been terrific.

3) Budda Baker (8 tackles, 2 TFLs) is so-so-so good…the best safety in the game.

4) DT Corey Peters (2 tackles) is an unsung defender here…he just caves in his side of the line with immense surges when he’s in.

Snap Counts of Interest:

59 = Hopkins

51 = AJG

38 = Kirk

28 = Rondale

39 = Edmonds

24 = Conner

61 = Thielen

53 = Jefferson

36 = Osborn

Ross Jacobs

FFM

21 September 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 2: Panthers 26, Saints 7 (By Ross Jacobs)

I'm not going to bore you with the details of this game because it was a total beatdown by the Panthers, but there are definitely some things we can take away from this game.

The first is that this is a pretty salty Panthers defense, an easy top 10 squad. They aren't elite yet, but they are getting there/in the conversation for best in the league. The entire Carolina team is so polished and well-coached, as we expected from Matt Rhule. But they have one big fat wart that's going to hold them back and we all know who that is...more on that in a moment. They might win 10 games anyways.

The Saints got throttled here, but know that the final score was both completely indicative of what happened but also a bit overblown. They got crushed but also did a lot to beat themselves as well. Penalties took away what little offense they might have had in the first half and by the second half they were just too far behind and the Panthers D was completely fired up. Winston only had 7 pass attempts at the 2-minute warning in the first half and finished with 22 total. What the Saints did to the Packers week 1 happened to them this week. Winston sucks but the offense won't be this terrible every week. It was just one of those games.

--Fantasy Notes

That big fat wart I mentioned...everyone knows it's Sam Darnold (26-38 for 305, 2 TD/1 INT). This is as good as it's going to get for Darnold. He was barely pressured all day, the top opposing CB was out, and he still threw a dumbass interception and nearly had 2-3 more. The only score the Saints got happened because Darnold decided to try and flip the ball to his RB while being sacked except there were two defensive tackles between him and the RB. Guess what happened. And there were multiple other terrible throws he tried to force into double coverage. 

It's entirely possible with a little more luck that the Saints could have won this game if they capitalized on every bad Darnold throw. That's how terrible he is. Darnold is going to cost this team wins and it's a shame because they are so solid otherwise. I really hope Matt Rhule comes to his senses and ditches this mess next year. If he doesn't I really think Darnold could cause him to lose his job somewhere down the line.

Darnold is a trainwreck but even he can't seem to slow down the best player in fantasy. I don't think I have to tell anyone that Christian McCaffrey (24-72-1, 5-65-0/6) is pretty good. He's still the offense, don't worry. Once the TD's start coming he's going to be the overall RB1 and single best fantasy scorer again this year. He came up a yard short of another TD on two different occasions here. It will happen eventually.

Chuba Hubbard (8-10-0) is just another guy. If McCaffrey went down there would likely be some type of split between Hubbard and Royce Freeman. It would be hard to trust Hubbard too as this offensive line isn't great at run blocking.

The Carolina passing game is limited to short, safe throws because of Darnold, and that means that DJ Moore (8-79-1/11) is the engine that he uses. Nothing is going to change that. Expect good ppr work from Moore this year, a backend WR1 or 1.5.

With Darnold unable to hit anything deep that leaves his old buddy Robby Anderson (3-38-0/6) out in the cold. He'll have a splash play here or there but he's essentially dead for fantasy. There are better options to chase.

Brandon Zylstra (3-44-1/3) is playing fewer snaps than rookie Terrace Marshall (3-17-0/3) but looks much better than the rookie. If Rhule is as smart as I think then Zylstra's role might grow more as the year goes on and he pushes Marshall out. We'll see. You can't use either in fantasy though.

Dan Arnold (3-55-0/4) was 50-50 with Ian Thomas (1-7-0/2) in week 1 but played fewer snaps here because they were running the ball more. Tommy Tremble played more for the same reason. Arnold looks exponentially better as a receiver than either of the other two. Thomas looks like he put on weight and it's slowing him down. Arnold looks like a big WR. They really should use him more, especially attacking LB's over the middle. He's such a mismatch.

Wonder what the media excuses will be for Jameis Winston (11-22 for 111 yards, 0 TD/2 INT, 3-19-1) this week? He's such a joke it's unreal. I'm legitimately unsure who is worse between Winston and Darnold. Watch his interception from this game if you want a laugh. How anyone can continue to think he's a franchise QB is beyond me. I will say, however, that he won't be quite this bad most weeks. The offense got off to a rough start with a bunch of penalties and then a tough Carolina defense crushed what little life they had left. It was a bad day but should be a bit better most weeks. You still can't count on anything in this offense with Winston as the lead...

...and that includes the great Alvin Kamara (8-5-0, 4-25-0/6). There's nothing wrong with Kamara, just nowhere to go here and no one to get it to him in space. Without Michael Thomas it's easy for the defense to just key on Kamara as well. Volume isn't going to save him. There is one hope though...

...and that's Taysom Hill. Hill didn't throw any passes here, but he did start taking a few wildcat snaps later in the game as the team was desperately trying to catch a spark. They might make this change if Winston continues to struggle this bad. If they do there's a chance this offense could come back to life.

As the offense continues to go down the sink with Winston it's killing off any Marquez Callaway (2-8-0/4) hopes. I do think things will get better on this front. Again, it was a strange game where nothing got going and the Panthers wiped out everything else. Callaway was open despite good coverage. It's not going to be good except in bursts where Winston can blindly fling him 50-50 balls to come down with, but Callaway should start ticking up a little, maybe not enough though. He's got a lot of good corners coming his way. Until we see otherwise he's a WR3 at best.

If Callaway and Kamara aren't getting numbers you know nobody else on this offense is either. I don't like the matchup with the Patriots next week either.

--IDP Notes

This Carolina defense is full of really good players, but the two guys that made life hell for Jameis this game were Brian Burns (4 tackles, 1 sack) and Haason Reddick (3 tackles, 1.5 sacks). They were abusing the Saints offensive line all day.

Another great addition to that defense is Morgan Fox (2 tackles, 0.5 sacks) who the Rams stupidly let go. He's a menace on the interior of the line and was helping open things up for everyone else.

Rookie Jaycee Horn (1 pd) didn't have much to do today. It was hard to get a read on him with as bad as the Saints were on offense, but I thought he looked good from what I saw. He wasn't shadowing Callaway as much as I thought. I think they are mixing coverages around for now. I wouldn't count on him to shut down the best opposing WR because of that, even if he is really good already.

The Saints defense actually played pretty well here. They kept McCaffrey in check in the run game but just couldn't get to Darnold frequently enough, mostly because he throws the ball like it will burn his hands if he holds it too long. They are still a solid squad, possibly top 10 and will be better with the return of Marshon Lattimore.

Demario Davis (12 tackles, 1 tfl, 1 pd) has been such an underrated defender for years. I never understood why the Jets let him go (well I do, their management sucked at the time). His high tackle counts here obviously come due to a McCaffrey heavy offense but he's a good player and will get his numbers regardless.

Two Saints rookie defenders were impressive here. Corner Paulson Adebo (7 tackles) was on DJ Moore all game and while he got beat routinely, he was all over Moore. It was nearly always a contested catch or the ball was just inches past Adebo's outstretched arm. He's going to be a really good corner and will be much better when Lattimore is back and he doesn't have to shadow opposing #1's. He's already playing nearly 100% of the defensive snaps.

The other rookie was 1st round DE Payton Turner (5 tackles, 3 tfl, 1 sack). His sack was an impressive bull rush where he just pushed his man straight back into Darnold and engulfed him. He looks like a fine replacement for Trey Hendrickson.

--Snap Count of Interest

39 = Terrace Marshall

14 = Brandon Zylstra

52 = Ian Thomas

29 = Tommy Tremble

22 = Dan Arnold

32 = Callaway

24 = Humphrey

21 = Deonte

23 = Trautman

18 + Juwan Johnson

R.C. Fischer

Total Football Advisor

20 September 2021

Looking at three Fantasy notes from each game this Sunday and our five players' advisory list for upcoming waivers, trading, and deep sleepers...

R.C. Fischer

FFM

20 September 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 2: Washington 30, Giants 29

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Washington was lucky to sneak out of this game with a win. The Giants mostly outplayed them all night, and yet the game came down to a Washington field goal attempt that went wide but a penalty was called on a Giants player that barely jumped before the snap and Washington got a second try that they hit for the win.

The loss of Ryan Fitzpatrick might sink this Washington team, but they have a few other problems that we'll talk about too. The Giants just aren't a very good team. They certainly tried here but couldn't even manage to close out the game against a failing Washington with a backup QB. Sad. It's another 5-6 win season coming for New York. Washington might not be a whole lot better.

--Fantasy Notes

Don't start worrying about Antonio Gibson (13-69-0, 2-4-0/2) just yet. He looks fine as a talent/runner. It's just that this offensive line isn't great and the Giants have a pretty good run defense. He might have had a TD here but it happened to come during a 2-minute drill where JD McKissic (4-10-1, 5-83-0/6) is the preferred option. This is still Gibson's backfield. I'm not sure he's going to get the same TD count as last year now that Fitzpatrick is gone, but he should get a decent workload. He's a backend RB1 or high RB2 at worst.

McKissic had a nice line but he's much less a part of this offense than the past couple years. He's still the 2-minute guy, but his role outside of that is pretty much nil. Most of his yards came on Washington's second to last drive in a hurry-up situation where he got matched up with a LB and got open for 56 down the right sideline. He's a spot-filler RB3 at best.

You know who is a really, really good player that rarely gets mentioned as one of the top players at his position? Terry McLaurin (11-107-1/14). I've been beating the drum for this guy since last year and I'm not going to stop. He's right up there with Allen Robinson as guys that have had to play with some crap QB's and yet they still manage to produce. I'd love to see what he could do with Fitzpatrick. You're not going to be able to count on him like this every week because Taylor Heinicke (34-46 for 336 yards, 2 TD/1 INT) is limited, but he's the #1 target by a large margin.

Speaking of Heinicke, he's not a bad backup by any means, but I am concerned about this offense against better defenses. I thought he looked worse than he did at the end of 2020, lots of one read and fire type passes. The Bills are up next and that defense is not going to suffer this type of weak passing game.

Heinicke's next look in the passing game is Logan Thomas (5-45-0/7) and Thomas, like McLaurin, looks fantastic. He has really built himself into one of the best TE's in the game. Why did you have to get hurt Fitz, why? Thomas will have his moments, but Heinicke is going to hold him back from getting into the top rung of TE's for fantasy. Unfortunately we're looking at a middle of the pack TE1, which is fine but not the top 3 guy we were hoping for.

Out of all the talented pass catchers Washington has accumulated over the past couple years it is Adam Humphries (7-44-0/8) that has ascended to the #2 WR position. He's the safe, slot option that every team has finally started using. You'll get moments of WR3 work with him.

After those three we're left with the underwhelming Dyami Brown (3-34-0/6). He just sucks so bad I can't believe he's a part of an NFL offense. He'll probably stick around for 2 more years like a Mecole Hardman before the team finally gives up on ever making anything out of him.

One guy that RC and I have made fun of an awful lot is Daniel Jones (22-32 for 249 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 9-95-1) and for good reason. He's a limited QB and probably not going to last much longer as a starter. But...he looked ok here. Most QB's can when they are given this much time to throw. We'll talk about Washington's defense in a minute, but Jones took what was given to him. It was a nice fantasy day but one he's not going to replicate often. He always has an ok floor because he's a sneaky rusher, but he isn't getting 90 yards and a TD every week Lamar Jackson style. He might next week against a bad Atlanta defense though.

Do we have a Saquon Barkley (13-57-0, 2-12-0/3) problem? I'm going to disagree with RC here and say no. He looked just fine to me and the offensive line is playing better than the past couple years. They still aren't great and Barkley still doesn't have great instincts so he gets stuffed for a lot of short runs, but he looks just as explosive as ever and will usually pop a couple of long runs to save his day. So long as his volume continues to increase as they get him closer to 100% I think he's going to be just fine. The Falcons are a lovely spot for him to return to normal next week.

Seems like Sterling Shepard (9-94-0/10) is working well as a safe slot option for Jones. Expect those numbers to come back down to earth as the season wears on and teams adjust. He's good and a nice WR2 play most weeks.

Kenny Golladay (3-38-0/8) was seen visibly angry and yelling at Jones on the sideline. Hard to blame him since Jones struggles hitting anything that's not a short checkdown. He's getting looks but this just isn't a good offensive fit for him in my opinion. Golladay needs a QB with a strong arm that can hit him down the field in 1-on-1 coverage. That's not Jones's forte. I don't think this situation is going to get much better, but since Golladay threw a huge fit here and the team is paying him tons of money I wouldn't be surprised to see him get 12+ targets next week against the Falcons.

Darius Slayton (3-54-1/6) is yet another underrated WR being wasted by Jones. He's such a good downfield threat. Not to beat a dead horse but Jones just doesn't do those types of passes well. If this team gets a decent QB in here next year this offense has some really dangerous pieces, especially if they can ever get Evan Engram healthy.

Want to know the best, most secret, greatest receiver ever on this team? Well it sure as hell isn't Kadarius Toney no matter what Gettleman and Urban Meyer think. The fact that those two bums both wanted him is all I need to know to stay far, far away from Toney. What a complete joke. He was a ghost here and I don't see that changing anytime soon. I won't be the least bit surprised if he's out of football in two years.

--IDP Notes

Ok, so what's going on with Washington's defense? RC already covered this in some detail, but it's obvious that they aren't the suffocating unit we suspected they might be. They did give up 26 points here (3 came from a FG on a short field after a Heinicke INT) but it was only 2 TD's. The Giants were driving pretty well all game but Washington usually flexed up and stopped them short for a FG, a couple of them quite long.

They don't look bad per se and it's hard to really put my finger on what the issue is. I think RC might be correct that the root of the problem falls at the feet of Chase Young (3 tackles, 1 tfl). He just doesn't seem to be getting the type of pressure you would expect from someone of his talent and pedigree. I watched him closely all game and he was mostly getting handled by Nate Solder. There were moments where he won but it was usually against the run. When he was rushing the QB though, Solder was able to just carry him past the play or else he was stonewalled at the line after another player helped chip him. I didn't see any great moves or the explosive athleticism and his effort seemed to be rather low if he didn't immediately win. I fear that means we are indeed getting the Jadeveon Clowney treatment again as RC theorized.

The other problem I think I see is that the team seemed to be dropping Montez Sweat (3 tackles, 1 sack) into coverage an awful lot. I might be mistaken about that but it sure seemed to be happening a lot. Sweat already rotates out of the game far too often for my tastes, so if he's not getting high pressure due to his role and Young isn't getting pressure because he's a diva, then that just leaves the DT's (who are great) to try and disrupt the QB. Allen and Payne are very good players, but it's much harder to get consistent disruption from inside.

If Washington isn't getting the same type of heavy pressure we saw last year then it's going to cause problems no matter how good the rest of the defense is. There is hope however that they get this issue figured out. If they do this defense could easily come roaring back. You can't play them against Buffalo next week, that's for sure. I'll be watching for signs that they are getting back to normal and perhaps we can grab them ahead of a turn, possibly after the schedule eases up the second half of the year.

I don't think I need to mention that Blake Martinez (12 tackles) is one of the best run defenders and best IDP LB's in the league, so I won't.

Kendall Fuller (8 tackles, 1 sack, 1 pd) had a great fantasy game covering Shepard in the slot. He won't have tackle counts like this most weeks though. It was purely because Jones was taking the short safe throws all day.

James Bradberry (7 tackles, 1 pd) went toe-to-toe with McLaurin, won a few and lost a few. He gave up a TD but also jumped a Heinicke pass late and picked it off which ended with a Giants FG that temporarily gave them the lead. He's still a very good corner and I wouldn't expect him to get beaten quite so much most weeks. Calvin Ridley could be in for another long day next week.

Jonathan Allen (6 tackles, 2 sacks) had himself a day inside. He's one of the better DT's in the league right now but probably not the very best. It helps when you're facing a QB that holds the ball when his first safe read is taken away.

Cole Holcomb (6 tackles) looks as good as ever. His fantasy numbers will go back up when he faces more run-heavy teams. Not a good matchup for tackles next week against the Bills.

Next to Paulson Adebo, the rookie corner I've been most impressed with is Benjamin St. Juste (3 tackles, 1 pd). He's really jumped right into the starting lineup and held his own. Nice solid find by Washington in the 3rd round.

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--Snap Counts of Interest

71 = Logan Thomas

71 = Terry McLaurin

62 = Dyami Brown

50 = Adam Humphries

43 = Antonio Gibson

31 = JD McKissic

64 = Sterling Shepard

58 = Kenny Golladay

39 = Darius Slayton

19 = Kadarius Toney

58 = Saquon Barkley

R.C. Fischer

FFM

19 September 2021

Opportunity, thy name is WR Trinity Benson?

Ross Jacobs

FFM

18 September 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 1: Rams 34, Bears 14 (By Ross Jacobs)

I'm not going to bore anyone with the details of this game. The Bears suck, the Rams don't. That's a pretty good summation. Credit the Bears a little, they tried to keep it close for a while, but every time they would blow a coverage and the Rams were able to hit a bomb pass down the field for an easy TD. The Rams appear to be a top 10-12 team, but I don't think they are much better than that, a fringe playoff squad. They're probably trailing the Seahawks and Cardinals in their own division. The Bears are awful but at least they aren't as bad as the Lions. That's about all they've got going for them. They'll be picking in the top 5 or 10 again next year.

--Fantasy Notes

The most obvious fantasy note from this game is about a player that barely even played here, Justin Fields (2-2 for 10 yards, 1-3-1). The cries for Fields are growing louder by the day. I'm still completely baffled why Fields, of all the rookie QB's, is the guy that apparently everyone has decided is amazing and needs to be playing immediately. I guess he's better than Andy Dalton (27-38 for 206, 0 TD/1 INT) at this point, but he's not a Patrick Mahomes-esque savior. The media sure seems to think so, and they and the fans are trying to pressure the Bears into starting him. It's just a matter of time now. I'm guessing Nagy tries to get through the Cleveland game with Dalton before putting Fields in against the Lions, but if it gets bad enough against the Bengals he might be forced to make the switch. Once Fields gets in you can expect ups and downs. He's not an advanced passer, but his legs make him valuable for fantasy, particularly in 4-point passing TD leagues. He'll likely be a nice QB2 and a good bye-week fill in.

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Apparently, this game was the final word on David Montgomery (16-108-1, 1-10-0/1). All I've seen all week are his early supporters crowing about being right that he was amazing all along, and his early detractors admitting that they were wrong and he's awesome. I'm still skeptical. I will admit that he looks much, much better than he did as a rookie and most of his second year. Instead of being a complete slug he looks like he actually has a little burst through the hole now. But I think we might be going overboard saying he's elite.

One of his early carries went for 41 yards and it looked like a little bit of a fluke. Montgomery hit a wide open hole and the safety crashed down on a bad angle. Montgomery was able to easily side step him and was off to the races. It wasn't anything that Montgomery himself did, many RB's could have made the same play. Take away that one run and he went 15-67 the rest of the way for 4.5 ypc, good but not amazing. We also see his 100 yards and TD against the mighty Rams defense and assume it's some amazing feat, but the reality is the Rams weren't that great of a run defense last year and aren't this year either. They gave up over 100 yards rushing 8 times last year with 3 more games over 90. I'm not saying to run off and sell Montgomery, but I am saying to be cautious and don't assume he's going to rush for 100 yards and a TD every game now. Once Fields is starting we can expect a slight uptick in Montgomery's efficiency, but it's going to come at the loss of a few short TD's as well.

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Well it's official, Darrell Henderson (16-70-1, 1-17-1) was the obvious lead back all along and how silly it was to think Sony Michel (1-2-0) would take over. Right? Wrong. I think you try to trade Henderson right now while everyone assumes he's going to be the lead guy all year. This isn't a great offensive line and Henderson was struggling to find any room to run until late in the 4th quarter when the game was over. He's got one more decent matchup against the Colts this week and after that the schedule gets brutal for a month. Beating up the Bears a little for 1Q is fine and all, but the Bucs, Cardinals, Seahawks, and Giants are coming up in the next month before the schedule eases up for a few weeks.

Here's what McVay had to say after the game:

“I would say, I have confidence in Sony but the way that Darrell was running, kind of the flow of the game like we talked about. Darrell has definitely established himself as our starting back. I thought he did a great job. I thought he got stronger as the game went, but Sony's a guy that's had production in this league. It was just a weird deal the way that the game kind of unfolded.”

Doesn't sound like a ringing endorsement to me.

Here's what's going to happen. Henderson is going to still be the lead for the next few weeks, but what happens when he gets bottled up against several really good run defenses? The Rams o-line isn't that good, but guess who Sean McVay is going to blame...Henderson. He's happy with Henderson for running well in the 4th against the Bears, but that good fortune goes away against better teams. It's going to confirm his secret feelings, that Henderson isn't very good and he's going to switch to Michel full-time right around the time that the schedule turns to the Lions and Texans which will only further confirm what he thinks when Michel has a field day against a bunch of shitty defenses. I don't care that McVay praised Henderson after this game. He's shown time and time again that he doesn't really like Henderson and doesn't want him to be the lead. Everything is fine for the moment, but the second Henderson struggles McVay will ditch him like he always does. McVay said Henderson was their RB1, but he didn't say for how long. This switch is going to happen, and it's going to happen sooner than everyone thinks.

I would trade Henderson hot right now or you might get cute and let him play against the Colts to build up the hype, but everyone knows the Bucs have a killer run defense and they aren't going to want to trade for Henderson with the Bucs up the next week. Nobody likes Henderson that much. Count your blessings if you held this long and get something in return for him. He won't be worth anything in a few weeks.

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RC warned you about this start for Allen Robinson (6-35-0/11). Jalen Ramsey is a no-fly zone. It gets a bit easier from here, but Robinson has Awuzie this week and he's no joke, then Denzel Ward the week after (he got torched by Mahomes and Hill but that's no crime), followed by the lowly Lions and Raiders (two good matchups), and finally Jaire Alexander and Carlton Davis. After that it's more of the same, a couple nice spots mixed in with some terrible spots. And don't forget Fields isn't likely to fix this particular problem. He's not that good a passer no matter how strong his arm is. It's going to be a bumpy ride for Robinson.

With all the attention on Robinson, there might be some room for Darnell Mooney (5-26-0/7) to shine at times. He's going nowhere with Dalton, but Fields could be more interesting because he will break the pocket and give Mooney time to improvise against lesser coverage. Again, it's going to be up and down. Not sure you can use him with any confidence just yet.

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The only other Bear I'm going to mention is Cole Kmet (5-42-0/7). He's so slow it's not even funny. He'll catch a few TD's to make him viable at times because he's so big, but don't expect any yards with this guy. He's strictly a turn-around-at-8-yards pitch and catch guy, nothing more.

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We know who Stafford's go-to receiver is: Cooper Kupp (7-108-1/10). He looks like a WR1 this year easily. Note that he was tackled a foot short of a second TD which would really have set off waves.

Kupp may be the top target for Stafford, but I don't expect Robert Woods (3-27-1/4) to completely fade away. Some of the targeting difference here was just gameflow. He's playing as well as ever. Woods will get his WR1.5 numbers in time.

There were two pleasant surprises with the Rams offense here. One was Van Jefferson (2-80-1/3) playing such a large role. He's the new Josh Reynolds, not a high volume guy but will splash with a big play from time to time. His TD catch went almost exactly like the long Deebo and Tyreek plays, fell down catching the ball and nobody touched him so he got up and walked in. Jefferson is the deep threat here and Stafford has the arm to get it to him so we will see more of these long throws than in the past.

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The other surprise was how involved Tyler Higbee (5-68-0/6) was and how great he looked. He played very smooth, like a jumbo WR, and was catching passes with ease. This is easily the best I've seen him and if he gets even half of the volume he got at the end of 2019 he's going to be an easy TE1 this year, possibly pushing into the top 5. I think he might do exactly that so now's the time to try and pull a sneaky deal for him as part of another trade.

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One guy that was not involved even remotely was rookie Tutu Atwell. Normally, I wouldn't even remark on a guy that only got 2 snaps and no targets, but I feel the need to make fun of this situation again. The whole argument for drafting Atwell in the first place was “he's fast” with the implication that he would open up the Rams offense for Stafford deep throws, but it seems that they are plenty able to do just that with Jefferson and DeSean Jackson and even Kupp, so why in the world would you waste a 3rd round pick on a guy that's 150 lbs soaking wet? That pick could have been used on an offensive lineman, but instead the Rams thought it would be a good idea to light it on fire. Great job.

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--IDP Notes

Justin Hollins (8 tackles, 2 sacks) had a nice stat line here, but this isn't a breakout happening. Hollins is a big-bodied, nicely built LB and moves around well enough, but he's just a role player. His sacks were the result of Aaron Donald being an absolute wrecking ball and Dalton trying to escape, nothing Hollins did. He's fine but not a secret IDP sleeper waiting to happen.

Kenny Young (10 tackles, 1 pd) also had a good game in the box score. He looks like a pretty good coverage linebacker, fast and rangy, but I didn't see him making any real impactful plays. He's always around the ball though, thus the high number of assisted tackles (5).

Young and the two safeties, Jordan Fuller (11 tackles) and Taylor Rapp (10 tackles) all had high counts because the Bears threw literally every single pass 10 yards or shorter. Don't expect them to do that every week.

--Snap Counts of Interest

69 = Darnell Mooney

63 = Allen Robinson

36 = Damiere Byrd

51 = Cole Kmet

14 = Jimmy Graham

41 = David Montgomery

30 = Damien Williams

49 = Cooper Kupp

40 = Robert Woods

36 = Van Jefferson

52 = Tyler Higbee

49 = Darrell Henderson

3 = Sony Michel

R.C. Fischer

FFM

18 September 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 1: Panthers 19, Jets 14

Jets fans…just be a little more patient. Your time in the sun is coming. The Jets played about as well as they could in this game – they’ve just got O-Line issues (again) and are too young/beat up on defense right now.

But look at the Brightside:  Zach Wilson is a force…a future elite 9and pretty damn salty now)…and that defense was on fire (energy wise) but lacks in the talented department. I walked away very impressed with the Jets and the job Robert Saleh did to have them motivated despite their shortcomings. Hope is on the horizon. So much so, that I think I’ll take the Jets and the points this week. The Computer trend was towards the Pats, but Zach Wilson is so good…despite all the limitations around him and with his young defense is so amped. I’ll roll the dice with points for the home dog.

With the Jets being feisty, this has to be classified as a ‘good win’ for Carolina…led by their top 10 defense and a safe offense. Carolina has a really good team. How good? If they had Zach Wilson and the Jets kicker Matt Ammendola, I’d say they’d be a playoff team and push the Bucs for the NFC South. The Panthers lack QB and kicker, and that means they’ll be flirting with .500/tough out all season…but not taking it to the next level. It’s a shame.

Credit to Carolina for holding off a ‘game’ Jets team.

Credit to the Jets for pushing a better Carolina team to the limit.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Let me just say, I’ve watched all the rookie QB debuts for 2021 and their preseason work…not a one of them is anywhere near on par with how talented Zach Wilson (20-37 for 258 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT) is. Only Justin Herbert had a more impressive rookie debut game than Wilson the past two years of rookie QBs.

Wilson has no run game, a corrupt O-Line and was scrambling for his life, and terrible WRs (in this game minus Cole-Crowder plus Corey Davis is an awful #1) and terrible TEs – but Wilson never gave in and just avoided the pressure as best he could and fired bullets all over the place.

The only generational rookie QB in the discussion from the 2021 class is Zach Wilson. He’s so far superior to Trevor Lawrence it isn’t even a debate, and yet 100 out of 100 highly paid football analysts would not agree. I like ‘dem odds. It’s how I know I’m right…and have been since January.

The Jets run game is so bad, that Wilson might start creeping into the QB1 discussion before you know it – he may have to throw 40-50+ times a game, and he can run/move so well, and if he gets his better WRs back…he may just shock with racking numbers in defeats.

Jets fans should be so excited they didn’t get suckered into Justin Fields and that failing Urban Meyer signed his death certificate taking Trevor in front of them, leaving Zach there.

 -- As I mentioned, the Jets have no run game…at all.

The Ty Johnson (4-15-0, 1-11-0/3) FF ‘let’s see’ experiment ended at one week. Nowhere to run and not the preferred back. He didn’t look that great on tape this game anyway. We can all move on.

Michael Carter (4-6-0, 1-14-0/2) isn’t close to ready to be that crafty 3rd-down back yet. There’s no way he’ll ever be the lead back here. People who think that are delusional.

Tevin Coleman (9-24-0) is their best back, but again…nowhere to run, and not that great.

The best runner on the team is Zach Wilson.

 -- Who does Wilson throw to? Corey Davis (5-97-0/2) for now. It’s his comfortable throw with Cole-Crowder out…but they are both back this week and might change the game up some.

Elijah Moore (1-0-0/4) is the great NY media fraud of 2021. He’s not ready for this at the moment. Amari Rodgers looks more ready than Elijah Moore right now…and Rondale Moore is light years ahead of Elijah.

Watch out that Keelan Cole doesn’t become Zach’s #1…or at least FF-viable. But I’m not sure they’ll even start Cole upon his return.

 -- Jets management had to be laughing themselves silly watching how good Zach Wilson was in comparison to their ex-QB on the other side of the field…Sam Darnold (24-35 for 279 yards, 1 TD/0 INT).

Darnold was fine here because he just throws screen passes to CMC. I could’ve thrown for 200+ yards in this game just dumping it off to McCaffrey. And can I say: It’s 2021, we all have seen Christian McCaffrey play and thrive the past several years, right? Still, no one near him on almost every pass route he runs out of the backfield. There’s barely anyone in the camera shot when he catches his dump passes. You’d think NFL head coaches and coordinators could be that stupid not to plan for CMC getting every other pass, but then again – you watched MNF, right? Did you see Darren Waller getting every target and the Ravens not adjusting to it at all?

Darnold is fine when he’s dumping the ball off. He found Robby Anderson (1-57-0/3) in broken coverage for a long TD to help give Sam numbers. Other than that, all limited small ball…but it was there so it worked. Still in the 2nd-half of this game, as the Jets closed in…Carolina scored all of 3 points.

 -- Sam D. occasionally has to throw to someone else besides McCaffrey. His top non-CMC choice seems to be D.J. Moore (6-80-0/8)…working like his Jamison Crowder from back in his NYJ days.

And Robby Anderson (1-57-1/3) is like his old Robby from their NYJ days – the guy Darnold can never hit with any consistency because it’s further than 2 yards down field. Good thing they gave Robby a big contract extension this preseason -- for his one big catch in a game against a defense that barely has CBs any of us have ever heard of…against CBs that have barely ever played in the NFL. Real QBs would have exposed that…but Darnold threw a bunch of dump passes to McCaffrey and scored 19 whole points in a game against it.

Terrace Marshall (3-26-0/6) still looks like a decent receiving tight end trying to be a wide receiver, to me.

 -- The two defenses…

The Panthers defense is rock solid across the starting 11. One of the best defensive units in the NFL. Not elite but higher end…a playoff level defense trying to cover for a bottom 10 NFL offense. Carolina will end 2021 with a top 5-10 scoring DST.

Again, I loved the Jets defense’s energy and speed and aggression…but they are not ready to be taken seriously for FF, yet. Let’s see how they do when facing a not-Darnold opponent. Week 2 against Mac Jones is a step up in QB/O-Line but the Jets may make this tough on Belichick’s boys.

The problem is the Jets are losing starting defenders by the bunch to injury every week. They are down to linebackers off the street this week.

Snap Counts of Interest:

52 = DJ Moore

52 = Robby

34 = T Marshall

57 = CMC

07 = Chuba Hubbard

35 = Ian Thomas

33 = Dan Arnold

12 = Tremble

58 = Corey Davis

56 = Elijah Moore

37 = Berrios

09 = Jeff Smith

03 = Mims

43 = Kroft

31 = Ry Griffin

20 = Wesco

R.C. Fischer

FFM

17 September 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 1: Texans 37, Jags 21

I mean…

This is unbelievable.

How are these two teams existing in the NFL?

The Texans are pretty bad and trying to lose. However, they ran into the one team exponentially worse…oddly, one trying to win -- but are so bad, so poorly coached they didn’t have one ounce of life in them, and they got bombed here. The Texans tried to give this to Jacksonville, but the Jags refused to take it…and went one better, really working hard to give them the game, and successfully doing so with terrible Trevor Lawrence turnovers.

I’m usually suspicious of reports like ‘Urban Meyer is already under fire in Jacksonville’, I mean it’s only been a week/one game into the season. But watching this game…watching the body language on the sidelines…watching the effort on the field…watching Urban’s body language on the sidelines – this team is D.O.A. already. I can believe Urban is one and done.

Will he be fired? No? That would be too much of an admittance of a grave error by the owner.

Here’s how he’ll get it out of it: https://youtu.be/NK9HXu9g5qA

Completely embarrassing display of football with a group of players exhibiting no life whatsoever.  Urban Meyer is going to totally destroy any shred of credibility he has.

What does this say about Jim Harbaugh, who could never beat him in college? Another fraud head coach.

Does there exist an actual ‘good’, difference making head coach anywhere in the NFL? Help us Brandon Staley…you’re only hope.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Well, let’s get into it right away. Let’s talk Trevor Lawrence (28-51 for 332 yards, 3 TDs/3 INTs).

Speaking of embarrassing, the entire NFL analyst group…and NFL scouts, and anyone associated with thinking Trevor Lawrence was generational is not looking too good right now. I know…’it’s early’. Why isn’t it early for Mac Jones (as one example)…or Burrow-Herbert-Hurts last year? I know…Josh Allen took three years to develop – but he’s the one in a zillion case in the NFL with 2x the tools of Lawrence.  

‘Bubble Boy’ was on complete display with Trevor. He has three types of throws…

1) Quick, no read bubble and tunnel screens. Which he executes well.

2) Pre-determined, no read fastballs medium and deep, hoping no one is in front of the throw…but unfortunately there were multiple times someone was. And Lawrence is so inaccurate downfield, as I said in January 2021…and every month since – some of his picks and near picks was him throwing 5+ yards away from any receiver, and right into the hands of the defense.

His accuracy downfield is as bad as I thought it was going to be.

3) Against prevent defenses down by 3+ scores, playing pitch-and-catch/7-on-7 like ball and having some success but still flirting with danger and off target way too much.

Maybe he’ll get better – but the guy I saw in college (against real opponents), the weak downfield thrower…it’s here year one. You have to hope he gets better by some miracle as he goes. He’ll get 3-4 years to do so because THEY think he’s special now.

Lawrence is like a tall, scarecrow-looking version of Johnny Manziel’s style of QB play – a bunch of quick passing near the line of scrimmage, and then blandly up for grabs down the field.

 -- On the other side, Tyrod Taylor (21-33 for 291 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) is pretty awful too…but he’s not as jittery in the pocket. Give him time and he might make a decent throw. He floated several balloons that almost got picked, as is his norm. When they face better defenses…he’s in big trouble.

 -- To my eyes, looking at this game, the best RB on the Jaguars is Carlos Hyde (9-41-0, 2-14-0/2). Hyde ran with more juice, power, and elusiveness than James Robinson (5-25-0, 3-29-0/6). With Robinson dropping passes and looking sluggish behind a terrible O-Line…it’s not going to be a great FF output season for JRob., and with pouty, tantrum-throwing Urban at the helm…with his OSU guy Hyde there – not good signs for JRob.

 -- The worst RB on the Texans is also their ‘workhorse’, and what the entire offense is built on – Mark Ingram (26-85-1, 0-0-0/1). I won’t waste time discussing how stupid this is – just know that it is and you’re going to get a lot of these 20+ carries for 60+ yard uninspiring games.

Meanwhile, David Johnson (3-10-0, 3-18-1/6) is the world's largest 3rd-down back in a team with a horrible passing QB. He still scored a TD and is strangely in the James White, Nyheim Hines, Gio Bernard discussion in PPR leagues.

 -- Who was Trevor throwing to?

Well, D.J. Chark (3-86-1/12) saw 12 targets…but only caught 3 of them. Not a DJC issue, just Lawrence throwing passes without a cause and not many landing. But one deep one snuck in about a blink from being picked, but it hit and got a long score.

All I know is – I said Chark was in trouble in the preseason because Lawrence is not a good downfield passer. 3 catches on 12 targets later, I haven’t changed my mind.

Marvin Jones (5-77-1/9) is TL’s preferred medium throw, but it looked rough until the prevent defense started.

Laviska Shenault (7-50-0/10) is going to have this stat line every week. It’s not terrible…just he has little FF scoring upside. It’s all Bubble Boy work.

TE James O’Shaughnessy (6-48-0/8) oddly got 8 targets…and 6 catches. It was dink-and-dunk safe work, but it was something. The two disconnects were raw drops by O’S. He could have had an 8 catch day here.

 -- Speaking of TEs, the best receiving TE in this game was Pharoh Brown (4-67-0/5)…and good pitch-and-catch option…and he had a helluva one-handed catch down the field on a nice Tyrod floater.

There’s minor deep sleeper appeal here, because this was a good game against a bad defense…and Brown is dealing with a concussion and may not play this week.

Snap Counts of Interest:

61 = Cooks

43 = Nico Collins

40 = Conley

17 = Amendola

36 = Ingram

22 = DJ

20 = Lindsay

59 = O’Shaughnessy

26 = Manhertz

59 = Ph Brown

47 = Akins

47 = JRob

25 = Hyde

20 = Roy Lopez

23 = Andre Cisco

29 = Tyson Campbell

R.C. Fischer

FFM

17 September 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 1: Dolphins 17, Patriots 16

The best way I can describe this game is – it was like I was watching left-handed Tua (Tua) facing off against right-handed Tua (Mac Jones) in a contest of who could get rid of the ball faster. As if there were a secret device inside the football that was going to blow up at a random hot potato time, and the QBs knew they needed to be rid of the problem as quickly as possible.

The better Tua did not win in the end. As the Pats were driving into the goal-to-go area with 3+ minutes left, Damien Harris fumbled it away and that allowed Miami to run the clock out and take their 1-point lead and turn it into a lucky victory.

Both teams quick-passed and ran it heavy at each other in a boring manner. New England was better in all phases, but not by much…but they did have a stellar 37/23 time of possession win, which usually means a real NFL win -- but two lost fumbles were a killer in the ‘playing it safe’ bowl of Week 1. By every key stat…yards, yards per play, time of possession, sacks, 3rd-down conversions…the Pats should have won this game easily…but they didn’t.

This was not a good start to my Miami under win total bet for 2021 but watching the tape…I feel confident I will cash that ticket in the end.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Let’s talk about left-handed Tua (16-27 for 202 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) first…

Another simplistic game where Tua predetermines his read and takes a quick/1-to-3-step drop and fires before anyone can react to it. It’s a short game, dink-and-dunk style offense…that works when there is no pressure. If you can get into 3rd-and-long, Tua is dead. If you make Tua go to his right, he’s dead. If I were an NFL coordinator, I would blitz Tua from his left constantly to force him to go right -- which is going to be his kryptonite…on top of the fact that he’s not a real NFL QB.

Matt Patricia is a literal rocket scientist…and couldn’t figure this out with a year of tape already. But after seeing what he did with the Lions the past few years…I am not surprised.

Tua is still Tua…a little more confident and settled this year, but same old quick pass and pray. Don’t take my word for it…read what the Patriots top CB had to say after the game:

Patriots cornerback J.C. Jackson gave a candid response when asked about Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa's fourth-quarter interception, which could have cost Miami the game had it not recovered a Damien Harris fumble on New England's ensuing drive.

"That's what Tua do," Jackson told reporters after the game when asked about the interception via the Boston Herald's Andrew Callahan. "If he doesn't have his first read, he's just gonna throw the ball up."

Had New England not coughed this up to Miami…had Miami lost, and then lost to Buffalo Week 2 – there would be a Tua revolution starting to overthrow him. Tua gets a one-week reprieve from that. The time will be coming…

 -- Right-handed Tua, Mac Jones (29-39 for 281 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) was mimicking Tua at first – a ton of 3-step drops and quick no-read fire. Hey, it worked…I guess. It moved the ball efficiently, until they get closer to the end zone/a short field then it gets crowded to try and do that as efficiently.

However, as the game went on Mac started quick firing from more 5-step drops and pushing the ball, finding receivers downfield. Mac Jones played a solid game here. He is progressing nicely. He’s already better than Tua will ever be. He looked, mostly, like a real QB from about halfway through the 2nd-quarter on.

But I wouldn’t count on a ton of Fantasy passing tallies anytime soon, for him or his receivers. But hope is on the horizon that he’s a midrange/good passer that allows for decent PPR tallies for his receivers…probably in another few weeks, and not facing any top tier defenses.

In general, Mac Jones looks like ‘the real deal’…meaning, he can play. He’s smart. Good mechanics. The more he learns his craft, the better he’s going to get. But under a Bill Belichick system and given the later season weather – it will probably never be that great for FF purposes. It won’t be bad, but it will be good/solid/better for the NFL than FF.

Tom Brady used to roll top 5-10 FF scoring numbers 4-5+ years ago, back when there were only a handful of decent QBs pushing bigger FF numbers. Now, the league has exploded with dynamic playmakers with nice footspeed – and Jones isn’t there yet and isn’t a real runner. Jones is going to be good in the end, but probably a top 15-20 Fantasy QB producer and not a top 10 one.

 -- The top targets for Tua…

I’d say, over time 2021, Jaylen Waddle (4-61-1/5) will probably be the top target. Because it works better in the flow of Tua’s style…quick 3-step or 1-step drop and fire passes quickly to receiver parallel to the line of scrimmage – like a tunnel screen, bubble screen, extended handoff, etc. Also, quick designed very short slants on occasion. Miami seems to have plays designed for Waddle that Tua can handle. Their get the ball to Waddle quickly and hope for good things plan is not a new one for a WR, it just makes sense with what Tua can do…but mostly results in a bunch of short yardage plays. A four catch for 50+ yards week is to be expected often here…and then you have to hope he finds his way for a TD. It’s not the worst thing for a speedy WR like Waddle for FF…4-5 touches a game hoping he springs one. He would be my #1 choice of the Miami lot for FF.

DeVante Parker (4-81-0/7) led in targets bit it was another low connection rate. Tua looked for Parker when he went downfield…but it’s not smooth or consistent. When Will Fuller arrives (if he ever does), it will be much of the same for him plus he’ll splitting into Parkers’ targets some, little as they may be.

 -- The top target for Mac…

Jakobi Meyers (6-44-0/9) makes a nice pitch-and-catch WR option for Mac. As Jones started out with a Tua style (get rid of it fast on predesigned throws), the WRs were not as involved because they could barely get into their routes before passes were dumped off. But as this game wore on, Jones got more comfortable and was turning into more flashes of Tom Brady style – longer drop backs and then firing short and medium downfield…with success. Meyers was a nice option to find for Jones.

James White (4-12-0, 6-49-0/7) is probably Mac’s favorite throw right now, but that may be fleeting as he gets more comfortable throwing past the line of scrimmage and downfield. This works for now.

Nelson Agholor (5-72-1/7) looked like a solid target as the game wore on, and Jones got more comfortable. He and Meyers are the top targets…but I don’t see Mac really leaning on any one guy except James White as a checkdown.

The two TEs combined for a boring 8 targets combined. Jonnu Smith (5-42-0/5) was more involved of the two TEs, but it wasn’t exciting. Hunter Henry (3-31-0/3) looks like good money wasted in free agency, and a TE2 this season.

 -- The same way James White is a nice checkdown in a short/get-rid-of-it-quick passing game, Myles Gaskin (9-49-0, 5-27-0/5) is that guy for Tua. It’s a safe, quick pass for him. Gaskin showed all the signs of being the #1 back here. Malcolm Brown (5-16-0/5) was a limited presence…who ran a couple of useless wildcat plays as his big contribution.

 -- Damien Harris (23-100-0, 2-17-0/3) rules the ground in this game for NE…a lot of carries, for a lot of short yardage gains but efficient enough, Harris opened the game with a 35-yard run, then had 75 yards on 22 carries (3.4 ypc) the rest of the way.

 -- I was hoping the Patriots-DST would be good+ with a great early season schedule. They were solid here, but minus Stephon Gilmore…and Tua just quick passing and so willing to punt and play defense, it was hard to get bigger DST numbers in this one. However, they did drop 1-2 easy picks of Tua…and they did hit him 9 times, but only got two sacks to show for it. Overall, not bad…but no major DST numbers in this one, but not bad.

The Pats-DST faces Z. Wilson, Winston before Brady comes to town…then Tyrod. Still a good option for three of the next 4 weeks, in theory.

 -- Kyle Dugger (7 tackles) was constantly listed as a 2nd-teamer on depth charts this offseason…but he started and played 95% of the snaps. As a starter, he will lead the Pats in tackles, I bet…and be a DB1 performer.

Snap Counts of Interest:

74 = Meyers

74 = Agholor

55 = Jonnu

54 = H Henry

33 = Bourne

40 = Dam Harris

28 = J White

05 = Rhamondre

45 = D Parker

43 = Waddle

38 = Smythe

21 = Gesicki

Rookies…

26 = Barmore (49%)

24 = Jevon Holland (32%)

R.C. Fischer

FFM

17 September 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 1: Broncos 27, Giants 13

The Giants scored a meaningless TD as time expired, or this would have been a 27-7 deemed blowout. The eventual 14-point win on the road is pretty impressive as it is.

Actually, rewatching this game…the Giants were a little better than the score indicated, but so many self-inflicted wounds. The Giants are just short of what it takes to be a consistent winning team. They have pieces. They play hard. They just don’t have the firepower on offense or the blocking to get to ‘winning’ consistently.

Denver is the aspiration of the G-Men…a stable QB with a good O-Line and a tough defense, an old-school good football team. The Giants wish they were the Broncos, but they are not. This was a solid win for the Broncos, but I wasn’t wildly impressed or blown away with them…they took care of business because they are better than the Giants. They should win this game more times than not. They did. The schedule is the Broncos friend Weeks 1-3, then we’ll see if they can start out (3-0) and then go (7-7) the rest of the way to get to 10 wins and a wild card.

*Note, I am writing this game report after having watched NYG-WSH on TNF Week 2. So, I will mix some live watch Week 2 perspective in on NYG notes here.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- The biggest FF-impression made on me from this game (and from watching Week 2) – Saquon Barkley (10-26-0, 1-1-0/3) is going to kill your FF teams, for those that took him as a ‘bargain’ in the 1st-round of redrafts 2021.

Barkley looks fine, but it’s the surrounding circumstances that are killing him. Defenses key on Barkley, and they want Daniel Jones to try and beat them…knowing he’s a high-turnover guy. Barkley is going to have the same issue David Johnson had in Arizona his final two years and his lone year in Houston after that – high-level of talent, but no O-Line and defenses keying on him, so he has no room to run. Every tote is a slog…every carry a disappointment watching him if you owned him for FF.

I don't own any Saquon Barkley, but I have owned DJ a lot the past few years…and been tortured seeing a talent go to waste. I can, you can, the world can do all the scouting of these prospects they want – but the O-Line and QB matters more than the talent, unfortunately. Talent is part of the equation but not THE dominant factor.

With all the bad results, THEY will say that Barkley must be still having lingering effects of his injury…but I think it’s just a surrounding NYG circumstances issue.

Barkley’s numbers in his last 16 games (to mimic a used-to-be full season) during the Daniel Jones era:

248 carries, 1,000 yards rushing (4.03 ypc), 6 rushing TDs

57 catches (82 targets), 492 rec. yards, 2 rec. TDs

93.3 total yards per game, 0.50 TDs per game, 3.56 catches per game…high-end RB2 work.

In 4 games with Joe Judge the past two seasons:

57 rushing yards for a high in a game, no TDs, 2.88 yards per carry on 42 carries.

I don’t see how Saquon magically springs to a top FF RB going forward, not in 2021. The O-Line is still bad and has lost a couple of starters to injury already. Teams will still be fine letting Daniel Jones try and beat them. When he’s played the whole game (not left early hurt), Jones is 7-20-0 as a starter in the NFL, a 35% win-rate.

If you’re counting on Saquon for FF 2021…you are probably in big trouble. The first two weeks have been a disaster.

  -- Speaking of Daniel Jones (22-31 for 267 yards, 1 TDs/0 INTs, 6-27-1)…he is looking better in 2021. Like…the better half of the bottom 10 QBs type of QB.

One of the reasons he is looking better is directly tied to Saquon – as defenses overplay Saquon, they thus dare Jones to beat them, and he is throwing into soft coverages or finding decent 1-on-1 matchups to heave prayers towards. It’s working not too bad, so far. He was OK here. He was good against Washington Week 2 TNF.

He still throws too many errant passes and throws into danger at the first sign of pressure, but when given enough time he can do what Mac Jones is doing for the Patriots – using the run game to help him quick-pass successfully like it’s a 7-on-7 throwing game. Only Mac Jones has a better O-Line, coaching, and is a better talent.

Jones is working OK as a passer, but then running more to suddenly make him an odd QB1 threat…a weak NFL QB who puts up good FF numbers.

If Saquon goes down, then Dan Jones is dead. He exists only by hiding behind Saquon.

 -- Teddy Bridgewater (28-36 for 264 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT, 3-19-0) is doing a better version of what Daniel Jones is trying to do. Teddy is working safe/smart behind a much better O-Line. Plus, Teddy is a better QB in general…and for sure more experienced. And Teddy is showing a desire to run with it when available.

Bridgewater is a solid QB2, and possible bye week flyer on a proper matchup. Better for the NFL than for FF.

 -- You’d rather have either of the Denver RBs for FF than Saquon. How FF-chilling is that statement? Again, O-Line rules.

What’s the status of the Denver backfield after one whole week?

Well, Melvin Gordon (11-101-1, 3-17-0/3) is definitely starting…but Javonte Williams (14-45-0, 1-0-0/1) is right there. This was not Gordon as the clear lead with Javonte sprinkled in. Javonte was into the game right away and sometimes was starting some series as the RB. It is only a matter of time before Javonte is the lead/main toucher…even if Gordon always ceremonially starts.

Three things to consider from these RBs in this game…

1) Gordon had a 70-yard TD run late…when the Giants were stacking the line to try and make a final stop to somehow stay in the game. Outside of that run, Gordon had 10 carries for 31 yards prior…3.1 ypc.

2) Javonte rushed 14 times for 3.2 ypc. The Giants might have a killer run defense in the making. They bottled up the WSH run game on TNF Week 2.

3) With Denver ahead 20-13 with 6+ minutes remaining, they got the ball back deep in their own territory. It was a key series where Denver could put NYG away (and they did). It was Javonte Williams in the game to start that key series – that’s a lot of faith for a rookie RB.

It’s only a matter of time.

My eyeballs saw there’s no comparison of Javonte and Gordon in 2021 Week 1…Javonte is way faster/quicker/better. It’s only a matter of time.

 -- We all want to chase the latest and greatest young WR who looks like the next Tyreek or the next Davante or next DeAndre or next Julio…and we laugh off and ignore boring old Sterling Shepard (7-113-1/9) as beneath our sensibilities. We shrug off a team’s #1 WR to chase rookie fairy tales.

We shrugged off a guy (Shepard) who will be a top 5 PPR WR for FF scoring after Week 2…you will wish your Stefon Diggs, and Davante Adams had the same YTD numbers as Shepard after Week 2.

Can this keep up? Sure, why not? He just lit up Washington’s defense. And if Daniel Jones is getting a free ride to throw because of Saquon paranoia by defenses – then Shepard is going for the ride with Jones. Shepard has been Dan’s #1 target ever since Jones has been a starter. The question is – can Shepard stay healthy? Otherwise…he’s a solid WR2+ all day long in PPR.

 -- The Denver #1 WR is Courtland Sutton (1-14-0/3)…and he got taken out by James Bradberry. Teddy didn’t even bother trying…there was plenty of opportunity elsewhere. Should be better days ahead for Sutton, but C.J. Henderson is no slouch Week 2. It’s not a gimme. Week 3 v. NYJ is the gimme.

Speaking of Denver WRs… You know their starters are Sutton-Patrick, right? That Tim Patrick (4-39-1/4) is the starter in 2WR sets…the 2WR/2TE sets that Fangio loves? It’s true.

Jerry Jeudy (6-72-0/7) came in on three WR sets and is working more like CeeDee Lamb now (and not just deep ball guy)…which is good for his FF purposes, but then he got landed on wrong/badly and hurt his calf. Watching that injury…I wouldn’t expect him back on the early estimates of his injury.

K.J. Hamler (3-41-0/4) was running as a #4 WR coming in and out as needed. He’ll be the #3 for a while with JJ gone

The main guys are Sutton-Patrick.

Don’t believe me?

Snap Counts for the WRs here:

53 = Sutton

46 = Patrick

31 = Jeudy

24 = Hamler

 -- Three notes on Giants’ receivers…

1) Kenny Golladay (4-64-0/6) is looking back to healthy/speed but doesn’t look like the right fit to work with Jones…not to take him back to his lofty DET levels.

2) Kadarius Toney (2-0-0/2) was a ghost. Barely knew he played. And after the game he was shooting his mouth off about his role. That guy is a bust…even faster than I said he would be.

3) If Daniel Jones is seeing more time to throw and looks better…might Evan Engram (DNP) be his best FF-self upon return? I’m just saying…the passing game isn’t as bad as it was last year. As long as Saquon takes the heat, this pass game is not the worst.

 -- I like the personnel and coaching on the NYG and DEN defenses. Both plausible NFL defenses to consider in the right matchups for FF DSTs.

However, NYG struggles more on offense…and doesn’t support the defense as well as what Denver does. Therefore, I like Denver better. BUT…neither is a candidate for some lockdown defensive greatness.

I always take a long look at DEN DST to see if THIS is the time Fangio rises up for a 2019 Bears defensive event. But I don’t see it here. The Denver defense is good, it’s not ‘wow’.

Either DST is slick/plausible in the right matchup. That’s why Denver was my go-to DST to start the year, when all else failed or the NE-BUF stream route wasn’t taken. Denver facing Jones-Lawrence-Z.Wilson is about as good as it gets these days. There are not many ‘great’ matchups for DSTs in the era of all good QBs…plus there is no ‘wow’ defense in the NFL anymore.

The only hope at ‘wow’ among DSTs seems to be Arizona since Washington $#!& the bed Week 2 vs. NYG.

Snap Counts of Interest:

29 = Barkley

24 = Booker

33 = Javonte

33 = Gordon

51 = Fant

37 = Albert O

22 = Saubert

Rookies:

16 = Surtain

08 = Brightwell

05 = Toney