2022 Week 17 NFL Handicapping: All Picks ATS and Survivor Pool Pick
I've lost my mojo the past two weeks. 14 weeks of killing it and could almost do no wrong…now I'm flopping to a 50-50 guesser and getting thumped on my Best Bet the last two weeks and losing record Blazing Fives. It happens…but I don't like it. I don't like it when I feel like I've lost the 'feel' for these games/teams/trends/flows…and I start second guessing everything.
There's only two weeks remaining in the regular season, so I'm going to stick with what got me here. I'm using the same formulas and scouting inputs to make picks this week and praying that the past two weeks were more blips and not that 'I've lost it' picking games for 2022.
An overview of the games for Week 17: None stand out super-strong (to me/The Computer), and that has me worried. Because I felt that same despair Week 15, and it resulted in the beginning of weaker betting results for two weeks running. There's not a game this week that really stands out for me as a potential bettor. I'm only playing things light/for fun. No serious plays stand out.
Good luck with your plays this week!
Week 16 results…
FFM All picks straight up: 9-7
FFM ATS: 6-9-1
FFM Best Bet: 0-1
FFM Blazing Five (no TNF): 1-3-1
FFM Calling a dog for an outright win: 0-1
Chris ATS: 7-8-1
Ross ATS: XXX
Chris Best Bet: 0-1
Ross Best Bet: XXX
When All 3 analysts agree: XXX
When both analysts disagree with my pick: XXX, for me
FFM Survivor: DET(L)
Chris Survivor: XXX
Ross Survivor: XXX
All Underdogs ATS = 7-8-1
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YTD results…
All picks straight up: 166-82-2
ATS: 140-95-5 (59.6%)
Best Bet: 10-6
Blazing Five (no TNF): 47-30-3 (61.0%)
Calling a dog for an outright win: 18-13
Chris ATS: 141-94-5
Ross ATS: 112-108-4
Chris Best Bet: 10-6
Ross Best Bet: 8-7
When All 3 analysts agree: 55-28-1
When both analysts disagree with my pick: 25-19, for me
FFM Survivor: BAL(W), BUF(W), LAC(L), PHI(W), TB(W), CIN(W), KC(W), MIA(W), ATL(L), NO(W), DAL(W), SEA(W), SF(W), MIN(W), DET(L)
Chris Survivor: BAL(W), GB(W), LAC(L), PHI(W), TB(W), LAR(W), CIN(W), DAL(W), BUF(L), TEN(W), SF(W), XXXXX
Ross Survivor: DEN(L), XXX, BUF (L), GB(W), PHI(W), SF(L), LV(W), DAL(W), TB(W), KC(W), BAL(W), MIA(W), SEA(W), CIN(W), NO(W)
All Underdogs ATS = 126-109-5
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Week 17 Picks….
BUF (-1.5) at CIN *UNDERDOG OUTRIGHT UPSET*
The Computer says: CIN by 2.0 (a 3.5 spread differential)
I'll roll with the best team in football…getting points…at home…somehow?
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: CIN *BEST BET*
Ross Jacobs: CIN
IND at NYG (-6.0)
The Computer says: NYG by 9.3 (a 3.3 spread differential)
Nick Foles looked atrocious last week…as did their whole offense. Indy is being run poorly, so I'll take the team run smartly to cover a big number.
*FFM SURVIVOR*
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: IND
Ross Jacobs: IND
NO at PHI (-6.5)
The Computer says: PHI by 3.5 (a 3.0 spread differential)
No Avonte Maddox, no Lane Johnson…and probably no Jalen Hurts? That's a lot of damage to Philly. And it's a lot of points for a still very much in it (unbelievably) Saints team.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: NO
Ross Jacobs: PHI
PIT at BAL (-2.5)
The Computer says: BAL by 0.1 (a 2.4 spread differential)
These two always play in wars…and their offenses have been stunted for weeks. This will likely be a low scoring battle. That being the case, I'll take the generous +2.5.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: BAL
Ross Jacobs: BAL
SF (-10.0) at LV
The Computer says: SF by 7.8 (a 2.2 spread differential)
So much to ask Jared Stidham to lead this dysfunctional team over a dominating 49ers team right now. The Raiders are ready to rollover. The 49ers need to keep winning to get past the Vikings for the #2 seed…so they don't have to go to Minnesota in the 2nd-round…and it's possible the Eagles could lose their next two without Hurts and SF rise to the #1 seed.
However, it's a fresh curveball with the QB change…and the Raiders defense has been feisty. The trend of big road dogs is not great. I'll blind trust fall into taking the points. The Raiders are a good mediocre team that could put up a fight here.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: SF
Ross Jacobs: SF *BEST BET*
MIN at GB (-3.5)
The Computer says: GB by 1.5 (a 2.0 spread differential)
Tough to beat Green Bay at Lambeau in December, but this isn't a very good Packers team. I'll take the points with Minny…too many points to give.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: MIN
Ross Jacobs: BUF
NYJ (-1.5) at SEA
The Computer says: NYJ by 3.4 (a 1.9 spread differential)
I'm sensing a bounce back game for NYJ with Mike White back as the starter. Both of these teams have been falling for several weeks. The Jets defense paves the way for a win on the road.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: NYJ
Ross Jacobs: NYJ
MIA at NE (-3.0)
The Computer says: NE by 1.3 (a 1.7 spread differential)
Hard to bet on a collapsing Miami team minus Tua, going to New England with the Patriots looking to get a win that would propel them into the wild card. But getting three points against this Pats team…I gotta take the points with two mediocre teams facing off, and the weather decent for this time of year in New England.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: NE
Ross Jacobs: NE
ARI at ATL (-3.5)
The Computer says: ATL by 2.0 (a 1.5 spread differential)
Two bad teams, I'll take the one getting points…especially more than a field goal.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: ARI
Ross Jacobs: ATL
LAR at LAC (-6.5)
The Computer says: LAC by 5.1 (a 1.4 spread differential)
The Chargers are a bad team masquerading as a good team because of a fortuitous late season schedule and winning some games they easily coulda/shoulda lost. I don't trust this LAC team at all. And the Rams are still fighting.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: LAR
Ross Jacobs: LAC
DEN at KC (-12.5)
The Computer says: KC by 11.4 (a 1.1 spread differential)
A lot of points to give to a team that's gonna show a curveball with a new head coach. Denver played them tough a few weeks ago, they might again for a new coach with new play calls and likely going for it on most 4th-downs and pulling trick plays, etc.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: DEN
Ross Jacobs: KC
DAL (-11.0) at TEN
The Computer says: DAL by 11.7 (a 0.7 spread differential)
The Titans could not enter this game with any worse intentions or a worse injury report. I have no case, no idea how the Titans could keep this to under 10-11…unless Malik Willis goes off, and that's not likely. Tennessee is mailing this one in and Dallas needs it.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: DAL
Ross Jacobs: DAL
CLE at WSH (-2.0)
The Computer says: WSH by 1.3 (a 0.7 spread differential)
The Browns are (2-2) with Deshaun Watson at the helm…could've been (3-1) if not for the weather last week. The Browns could win this against a so-so Washington team that is folding down the stretch.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: CLE
Ross Jacobs: WSH
JAX (-4.5) at HOU
The Computer says: JAX by 4.2 (a 0.3 spread differential)
Houston has been feisty with Davis Mills for several weeks, so I'm taking the 4.5.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: HOU
Ross Jacobs: JAX
CHI at DET (-6.0)
The Computer says: DET by 6.1 (a 0.1 spread differential)
Depends on which Lions team shows up this week but I'll assume a bounce back to their more dominant ways prior to the Panthers debacle, but a continuation of the collapse is possible.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: DET *SURVIVOR*
Ross Jacobs: CHI
CAR at TB (-3.0)
The Computer says: TB by 3.1 (a 0.1 spread differential)
I can't trust the Bucs at all…one of the worst teams in the NFL, and Carolina smoked them the last time they played. The Panthers could do it again…because Carolina is bad, but Tampa is worse. But Brady 'gets the calls' here -- I'm sure the NFL wants Tampa, not Carolina, in the playoffs for TV ratings.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: CAR
Ross Jacobs: CAR
