2022 Week 16: Panthers 37, Lions 23 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
*Weeks 16-17 game week, the game reports will be shortened a bit on some of them to discussing/quick hitting on just the critical facts from the rewatch studies so we can spend more time on looking at the tape of last week’s games for projections prep and sleeper finds this critical FF playoff week/s.
I already spoke of this game in the Executive Summary because it was so shocking…and burned me badly in a few FF spots…so, I don’t want to rail on it too much here because I’m still shocked and pissed.
The short version: Detroit came into this game winners of six of their last 7 games, on a 4-5 recent game trend of a top sack, turnover, and run defense unit with the offense rolling just fine. They went into this game with huge playoff implications and played their worst defensive game of the year -- they got no sacks, no turnovers, and every other running play was wide open holes the likes of which I’d not seen in any game this year, and Detroit’s defense got steamrolled. I don’t know how or why they fell apart so violently…to a team like Carolina, but it happened…and I got caught in the trap.
After rewatching it…I still don’t know what happened, but it was just as bad as the live watch. Detroit wasn’t like this for the past 2+ months. You have to assume it was just ‘one of those games’ -- but one at the very wrong time, helping end some FF seasons who risked it on the Detroit-DST…because I was so delighted with their upside Sunday morning on our pre-kick Video Q&A.
Not only did it smack some Fantasy GMs, but the poor performance may have ended Detroit’s season…now (7-8) and blew their chance to be in the wild card as of this week. Instead, they’re in a logjam to get to the wild card with every team in the NFC somehow. Because I don’t know if Week 16 was a blip…or a reveal, or a blip that creates doubt going forward from a previously confident/aggressive team. Detroit could win out and get in…or collapse, mentally, from here and lose out and be done. After watching the Lions flop so hard in Week 16, compared to the prior several weeks of their win streak, I have no idea what’s coming in Week 17.
Carolina wins to go to (6-9)…in what should be an already lost season, but somehow they’re playing for the NFC South lead this week against Tampa Bay. I don’t know what’s more unbelievable -- the way Detroit played Week 16…or the fact that Carolina under Steve Wilks controls its own destiny to win this division. I can’t even hazard a guess on who will win this division as Carolina and Tampa Bay are two of the worst teams in the NFL. I almost want to see Carolina win just for the shock value of it. But this is where Tom Brady’s pact with the devil likely kicks in and they win the division…don’t we all think that? But haven’t we all thought that all year and it never kicks in?
*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a ‘split’ stat on our definition of a ‘quality start’ (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 for a QB…point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.
A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the mark, and 2 times they did not.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The game prior to this one, D’Onta Foreman (21-165-1, 0-0-0/0) had 9 yards rushing on 10 carries…then he goes wild here because Detroit couldn’t stop the run in the 1st-half if their life depended on it (and it did, and they didn’t). I have no idea what Foreman will do Week 17…you just have to roll him out there, in most instances, and just see what happens. His last 8 games, four 100+ yard rushing games…and 3 games under 30 yards rushing.
Chuba Hubbard (12-125-0, 0-0-0/0) got in on the easy action too. I have way less faith in Hubbard then I do the much more talented Foreman, but you never know who Steve Wilks will start or feature…even if it makes no sense. Even when Wilks tries to push Hubbard…he ends up leaning on Foreman for obvious reasons. Hubbard is an RB3 for Week 17…who could be an RB2…or an RB4/5.
-- Jared Goff (25-42 for 355 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT) posted his third 330+ yard passing game in his last 4 games here. As Detroit loses its own running game and has been in dogfights…they’re throwing a lot, with success, and Goff is tallying numbers. Since Week 12, Goff is a top 10 FF QB in PPG.
Week 17 vs. CHI at home/dome, Goff should be in for another solid FF event.
-- Detroit has no run game all of a sudden…
Jamaal Williams (7-11-0, 2-3-0/2) has died off the past month and he got hurt here, and is questionable Week 17.
D’Andre Swift (4-12-0, 1-13-0/5) didn’t take advantage…the team/staff doesn’t fully trust him. He’s one of the biggest busts of the FF 2022 season. But they may have to trust him more Week 17 if their boy Jamaal is out.
They’ve given Justin Jackson (1-0-0, 0-0-0/1) more chances the past month, but not many touches here. He may split with Swift Week 17 if Swift stumbles out of the gates if Jamaal is out for Week 17.
-- Detroit receiver notes…
D.J. Chark (4-108-0/5) booked his third 90+ yard game in his last 4 games, as DJC solidifies himself as a fairly consistent WR2, as long as it’s not a bad matchup with the opposing secondary/corner. He’ll be a solid option Week 17 for a WR2 with WR1 upside. Many of us started the FF season with Chark and Evan Engram…and it only took 12+ weeks for it to finally produce consistently.
TE Shane Zylstra (5-26-3/6) is nothing special. He’s played 10-40% of snaps in games most of the 2nd-half of the season, and barely gets a target a game…and then this jackpot game. Just a blip…not a breakout.
It’s funny/not funny that after this game, Zylstra has more TD catches this season than Pat Freiermuth, Hunter Henry, Greg Dulcich, Kyle Pitts (ouch), and Darren Waller among others.
Zylstra got 6 targets and 3 TDs, while their top pick WR Jameson Williams (0-0-0/1) barely gets to play or sees any targets. Williams is getting ticked off with the situation, but his social media outburst won’t get him any more work with this staff. Gonna have to wait until 2023…but we really won’t know how good he is because he’s getting no work right now. He could be great…better than any of the breakout rookie WRs of 2022, but we won’t get to see a preview of it until 2023…if it’s true.
-- A huge problem for Carolina for Week 17 happened…they lost Jaycee Horn (6 tackles) for the rest of the regular season -- their key/best defensive player. Whether the sad Tampa’s passing game can take advantage is a question mark, after Tom Brady flailed away at the terrible Arizona secondary -- how could you assume Brady will take advantage of a still decent Panthers secondary without Horn?
Snap Counts of Interest:
31 = Hubbard
30 = Foreman
06 = Blackshear
37 = Swift
16 = Jamaal W
14 = J Jackson
29 = Zylstra
27 = BR Wright
19 = J Mitchell
55 = St Brown
49 = Chark
40 = J Reynolds
11 = Jameson Williams
