2022 Week 16: Cowboys 40, Eagles 34 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
*Weeks 16-17 game week, the game reports will be shortened a bit on some of them to discussing/quick hitting on just the critical facts from the rewatch studies so we can spend more time on looking at the tape of last week’s games for projections prep and sleeper finds this critical FF playoff week/s.
This was a wild game. ‘Wild’ in the sense that it just felt like a video game…just offense and turnovers being tossed about willy-nilly until one of the teams ended the game with more points than the other. I didn’t feel like I was watching two superior teams play each other -- more so like I was watching two wild card type teams who can score a lot of points just jousting with each other for 60 minutes. The fact that the Eagles played as good/bad as Dallas here without Jalen Hurts, tells me the Eagles are definitely the better team at full strength. Either team could’ve won this game. It was a fun watch…but it was also a sad watch. ‘Sad’ that there are supposed to be two of the best teams in the NFC. I don’t think so.
The 49ers are superior to either one of these top NFC teams, but in the NFL…you never know what could happen in a given week. Either Philly or Dallas could beat San Fran with a few breaks.
Dallas is now (11-4) and are all but locked in as the NFC #5 seed/top wild card -- but if Dallas wins out and the Eagles lose out from here…Dallas wins the NFC East. Not likely but with Jalen Hurts out…who knows?
Philly is now (13-2) and needs to win one of their next two to get the #1 seed and the NFC East title. They should lock it down Week 17 vs. New Orleans, Hurts or no Hurts…but if ‘no Hurts’ it’s gonna be a little tense around Philly, especially if they lose Week 17 and then face desperate Washington team Week 18 with their old flame, Carson Wentz, at the helm.
*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a ‘split’ stat on our definition of a ‘quality start’ (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 for a QB…point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.
A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the mark, and 2 times they did not.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- I watched this game back a second time, just to watch all the Gardner Minshew (24-40 for 355 yards, 2 TDs/2 INTs, 4-5-1) plays specifically cut-up…in case Minshew needs to start again Week 17, and he might.
I thought Minshew looked fine enough…for a backup. Too many risky throws into coverage, especially early on. He got a little more dialed in as the game progressed. Still, he pushed the envelope, recklessly at times, and that led to some yardage tallies, but he scored 3 total TDs. He’s a gamer.
My only fear on him for Week 17 is -- because he takes so many risks, if Philly could get a lead of double-digits…Philly might be inclined to try and run this game out and minimize Minshew’s gunslinging/turnover risk. And Philly could subdue the Saints early and try to do just that. Otherwise, Minshew is capable enough of 250+ yards passing and multiple TD passes if Philly has to chase in Week 17.
-- Because Minshew is willing to fling it, DeVonta Smith (8-113-2/12) had a big game and A.J. Brown (6-103-0/8) was nice as well. No worries FF-starting either Week 17 (or 18, if needed) with Minshew…only the game flow could hurt them Week 17.
What more jumped out at me from this tally/performance of the Philly WRs: Dallas is dying in pass coverage. This once feared/vaunted Dallas defense is a shell of itself. Trevor Lawrence had no issues against them in Week 15 and then Minshew was pushing it at them Week 16. The good numbers for the Dallas pass defense, in recent weeks, came against the likes of Matt Ryan, Davis Mills, Daniel Jones, et. al.
However, they get a break facing Malik Willis Week 17…and the stunted Tennessee passing game.
-- Dallas Goedert (3-67-0/3) returned from injury and looked fine. Low targets but that seemed to be from Minshew flinging prayers downfield more than dissecting the cracks in the pass defense with the TE or an underneath WR. Not a great matchup for Goedert Week 17 (v. NO)…but also fears he gets under targeted again as well.
-- Dak Prescott (27-35 for 347 yards, 3 TDs/1 INT) is getting more press/attention for throwing pick-sixes, but that diverts some attention away from the fact that he’s also logged 3 TD passes in a game in three of his last 4 games.
19 TD passes in his last 8 games…2.4 TD passes per game is pretty elite output. A great matchup with Tennessee this week too.
Dak is a (5/5) this season…a (5/3) his last 8 games.
-- Dak is spreading the TDs around to Lamb-Gallup-Pollard-Brown and the whole TE group, except Dalton Schultz (3-43-0/4). Schultz has no TD catches in his last 4 games, despite good matchups and Dak rolling. He’s not even seen a target the past 4 games when the offense is in goal-to-go situations. Concerning to try and play him on a GREAT matchup this week.
Schultz is a (3/4) the past 7 games…(1/3) the past 4 games, (0/2) the past two games. The trend is soft, but also showing ‘he’s due’.
-- Tony Pollard (9-19-0, 6-61-0/8) is at-risk of being inactive Week 17 on TNF. His injured thigh on a short week…and playing a game that might see Tennessee pulling back on starters (to get them ready for the everything game Week 18) -- it’s not a bad time to rest Pollard for Week 18, if needed.
What’s really concerning is Dallas could make Pollard active, but not use him unless really needed Week 17…but no one will know that plan until he’s active for the game but never going into the game/standing on the sidelines the first few series.
Malik Davis might get a decent run of touches Week 17 if Pollard is out/sidelined, and Dallas gets a lead to work with.
-- Two Dallas IDPs to mention…
1) Damone Clark (4 tackles) looks really smooth as an ILB for Dallas. He’s playing 70% +/- of the snaps the last two weeks with Vander Esch out. Clark is really nimble and might be the future for Dallas as one of their ILBs.
2) CB Nahshon Wright (8 tackles, 1 TFL, 2 PDs) got a season high 54% of the snaps played this game. He is a very promising, big (6’4”/185) corner that has some Tariq Woolen-like prospectus…and Dallas is giving Wright more work lately, and they need to because they are starting to collapse in pass coverage.
-- DST notes…
The Cowboys-DST has given up 23-40-34 for points the past three games as they fall from grace as a DST. However, Week 17 facing Malik Willis, a butchered O-Line, and a possible reduced or out Derrick Henry in Week 17 is an opportunity for sure.
The Eagles-DST has also started to crumble a bit…33-10-22-20-40 for points allowed in games recently. Week 17 hosting the Saints should be a decent opportunity, but I don’t like it when this defense is missing Avonte Maddox, and they will be again for the rest of the regular season.
Snap Counts of Interest:
39 = Pollard
34 = Zeke
62 = Lamb
61 = Gallup
55 = N Brown
12 = TYH
38 = Sanders
30 = Gainwell
03 = B Scott
