R.C. Fischer

FFM

28 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 16: Jets 26, Jags 21

The Jags win!!!

I mean, they lost the game…in an embarrassing way (failed several goal to go shots with a minute left by Trevor), but they ‘win’ by continuing to get into position to take the #1 pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. The Lions (the current #1 pick holders) hurt the Jags’ chances of getting that #1 spot by losing Goff (COVID) the week they would’ve thumped Atlanta with him and that would’ve launched Jacksonville to the #1 pick.

Jacksonville is (2-13) and they won’t win another game this season (at NE, IND remaining)...they are sitting in the #1 pick spot, a half game over Detroit. They pray for the Lions to get another win to really assure the Jags that #1 pick, in case the Jags accidentally win Week 18 if Indy doesn't need that game. I think the Jags will wind up with that top pick, but whether they are picking #1 or #2…it won’t matter, this organization is trash and they’re stuck with Trevor Lawrence mediocrity (not generational) for three more years. If I were a Jaguars fan…I would file divorce papers after what happened this season.

The Jets rise to (4-11) and four wins is probably where they wind up (TB, at BUF ahead) and likely in the top five for the 2022 NFL Draft. A few teams tied with 4 wins right now. The Jets are sitting #4 in the draft...plus #6 (their pick from Seattle/Jamaal Adams).

This game was sloppy and dull…and not worth really talking about team-wise. It is what it is.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- One of the main reasons I watched this game was to scout Dare Ogunbowale (17-57-1, 2-15-0/4)…now taking over for James Robinson (achilles).

Simple scouting on Dare: He was not very good here…he runs stiff/slow, not explosive. His offensive surroundings stink, and he faces a riled-up Patriots defense Week 17. This is not likely to work. He’ll get touches, but they probably won't amount to much…maybe you get lucky with a short TD run (like he got here).

The Jags have little else in the backfield…

Nathan Cottrell (1-3-0) just came up from the practice squad recently and looked more explosive, but that’s not saying much compared to tugboat Dare. And Cottrell didn’t flash any signs either.

Ryquell Armstead is on the roster, but he was on COVID list for this game…and he’s not very good.

B.J. Emmons is the most talented back they have, an interesting practice squad RB, but doubtful they do anything with him. Better to hide him if they want to retain long term. But if he gets elevated my ears will be perked up.

Ogunbowale is the most experienced guy, and so he’ll likely be the main guy with Cottrell getting a couple extra touches to try and impress. And Dare would probably post a 12-40-0 line at NE this week…not a great outlook for his ‘start’.

 -- I was ready to mock the Tavon Austin (6-68-0/7) little outburst, but without Laviska Shenault (COVID), Austin got more looks. If Shenault is out again, it might happen again. However… This little burst was against the Jets. Facing the Patriots in the cold in Week 17, it’s not Austin’s, or more importantly…not Trevor’s kind of atmosphere.

 -- No Jamison Crowder (injury) so, Braxton Berrios (5-37-0/6) was Wilson’s #1 WR look, as we suspected…but it didn’t matter much with a wimpy/OK PPR score…but he did return a kick for a TD to help make him a WR2-3 for the week.

If no Crowder Week 17, Berrios probably has a similar-ish game of PPR WR3 +/- on catch volume.

 -- In the battle of the #1 overall 2021 NFL Draft pick, versus the #2…nothing really happened to change hearts and minds.

Trevor Lawrence (26-39 for 280 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) had his typical allergic reaction to throwing for a TD pass…1 TD pass in his last eight games is a complete and utter embarrassment. And he isn’t playing poorly…he’s just such lukewarm water as a QB.

Zach Wilson (14-22 for 102 yards, 1 TD/ 0 INT) wasn’t much better…typical game for him, running for his life, making some awesome throws and making some forced dumb throws. He had a TD pass to an O-Lineman and a fluky 50+ yard TD run…all of it ‘on accident’ in a sense.

The winner of this Lawrence v. Wilson showdown was…Davis Mills (playing the best of any rookie right now) and Trey Lance (Lance by doing nothing moves up in status vs. them).

 -- Jags rookie IDP Andre Cisco (5 tackles, 1 PD) played one of the worst games of football I’ve seen from a player this year. A HUGE disappointment.  

I was very high on Cisco as a top 3 safety prospect from the 2021 NFL Draft. He was an early 3rd-round NFL Draft pick, might have been a 2nd-rounder had he not gotten hurt (ACL, I think it was) his last year of college play. I argued he might have been the best safety from the 2021 class, possibly…at least we thought he was in that conversation.

Cisco’s main attribute I recall from his scouting is – flying around to the ball and a great tackler/hitter. That’s why when I watched him get the start in this game and then play like a giant puss, I was shocked…and appalled…and I’m done with him for IDP. He’ll have to draw me back in to get back onboard.

He half-assed around the field in a way I’ve seen from a few players the last few years…players trying to play not to get hurt (usually veterans at the end of their careers)…so they conveniently get to the ballcarrier a beat too late allowing someone else to make the tackle. When a ballcarrier gets out in the open field and is racing for the end zone on a long play/run, these ‘fake’ players (like Cisco here) run half speed from a distance to ensure they are nowhere near the ballcarrier or camera shot to get caught. I caught it…and I couldn’t unsee it.

A bunch of lollygagging and arm tackles…until he made a goal line stand one-on-one tackle at the goal line to save the game with under 2 minutes left, forcing NYG to a field goal, allowing the Jags a chance to win with a TD…which they almost did. His goal line tackle was vintage Cisco…his other 58 minutes should get him cut from the NFL.

Now, I understand why Urban Meyer didn’t play him. My apologies for blasting Urban for not playing him. Sorry, Mr. Meyer…for that, but you still were the worst head coach I’ve ever seen in the NFL, regardless…so there’s that.

Cisco falls in my stash rankings and IDP projections this week…to my surprise and disappointment.

Snap Counts of Interest:

48 = Berrios

43 = K Cole

32 = Mims

13 = J Smith

50 = Kroft

22 = Wesco

60 = Ogunbowale

01 = Cottrell

64 = Treadwell

60 = Marvin J

43 = Tavon Austin

08 = Josh Hammond

**College Football Metrics 2022…new season signups coming in January 2022**

The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!

The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…

Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.

R.C. Fischer

Total Football Advisor

27 December 2021

A look back at the Chargers 2021 season via RC's weekly game recaps/analysis with 2022 notes/comments added to this review...

R.C. Fischer

FFM

25 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 15: Texans 30, Jags 16

Two so-so rookie QBs tried to game-manage their way to a victory, and the one who played better, (Mills) and has played better all season, won. These are the two worst teams in the league, and they just had their Super Bowl…and by ‘winning’ the Texans lose key draft position. The Jags are closing in on the #1 pick…again. Where they will butcher it…again.

Rumors circulating that David Culley is one-and-done as head coach. Likely, I believe. He was brought in to try and sway Deshaun Watson…and it didn’t work. He has an awful team that’s out of control, and it’s his fault…he’s so out of touch, he is so the poster child of a long-time nice guy assistant that has embarrassed himself as a head coach because he’s not head coach material. When I watch him behind the scenes, or mic’d up…it’s high school level stuff…junior high stuff.

Enough about these two embarrassing teams, because it doesn’t really matter who they hire as a coach…it’s the organization.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- All the tape scouting in this was about the two rookie QBs…

We’re 15 weeks into the season and two things are coming to light:

1) Trevor Lawrence (22-38 for 210 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) is no way shape or form a ‘generational QB’.

So, with that – the entirety of professional NFL analysis and scouting is wildly wrong AGAIN. They are so wrong about everything every year, we should just assume they are always wrong/gonna be wrong and thus we should only report out when they get something right – that’s the real unique news, when they call something in advance and they were right.

Football scouting is so ‘What are other people saying…what are the masses saying collectively? Ok, ‘me too then’. The original (and on-going) #MeToo movement is NFL scouting and analysis.

Lawrence isn’t a terrible prospect…he’s just not generational, and I’m not sure he’s even really all that good.

Justin Herbert you could see almost instantly, but for sure you could see it by Week 15 of his rookie season. Ditto Joe Burrow who played half a rookie season was easy to see. Not so with Trevor. I’ve not seen one moment this season where I was like ‘wow’ with anything Lawrence has done. I have seen moments/flashes with Fields, Lance, Wilson…but not Lawrence.

And then #2…

2) Davis Mills (19-30 fo4 209 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT) might be as good as Trevor Lawrence, which is a shockwave to the Jaguars system…not meant as a compliment to the Texans.  

Davis Mills looks like a Mac Jones clone to me, and Lawrence a taller more athletic version of them. All perfectly groomed (read: overcoached, overtrained) competent QBs. I thought Mills would be a bust…I was wrong there…so the mainstream can point to that to make fun of me back at making fun of them for Trevor Lawrence – but, to me, the Lawrence scouting miss was momentous.

Me thinking that Mills was a D-/F grade prospect and he might be a solid ‘C’…I can live with that because I don’t want D or F…or C quarterbacks for my NFL or FF teams.

Here’s a Mac Jones stop and think…if Davis Mills were drafted by Belichick, and he got the same push this year (which he might have if he was drafted there), then Mills would be having a similar year to Jones…or better. I believe. Mills has been a shockingly patient and aggressive and fearless QB…one I didn’t think had any of those NFK-starter traits besides ‘smart’ and ‘mechanically sound’. ‘C’ grade QBs can game manage your NFL team just fine, as rookies, in this new era of player.

I think Mills has been more impressive because he’s showing talent/success with a full-scale disaster around him, from his O-Line to weaponry to coaching staff…where Jones was ‘born’ on the right side of the tracks going to New England/Belichick.

If I were an NFL GM taking over Jacksonville pre-2021 NFL Draft, but knowing what I know today, and not having Urban Meyer coaching my team or sticking his finger in my crack, my QB draft board rankings might look like this:

1a) Zach Wilson – the only pure, obvious arm talent in this draft.

1b) Trey Lance – could be the best total package, or a phenomenal flop because he potentially cannot read NFL defenses or throw with accuracy…but if he develops it, he’ll be ‘generational’ at his size and movement skills, a ‘next Josh Allen’ type.

4) Justin Fields – taking raw talent/skills over worries about his on-and-off field demeanors/attitudes.

4) Davis Mills – the scrappier version of Mac Jones. More arm talent than Jones.

5) Mac Jones – the safe, smart game manager in the Taylor Heinicke vein, but not as scrappy as Heinicke.

6) Trevor Lawrence – he might wind up #3 on this list in the end…he has tools and talents, but I’m afraid he’s been so coddled, so told how great he is, that he’ll never ‘grow’ the way I’d want. The media hype, the media falsehood/dereliction of duty may cost him his career unwittingly. I don’t see Lawrence improving as we go, but that will be blamed on Urban…more coddling, excuses.

Just my knee-jerk reaction re-ranking. I’d have a real debate of Wilson v. Lance, and then I’d trade all the other picks to teams that wanted the other QBs.

The rankings would be different for FF/Dynasty for obvious ‘scoring’ and ‘situational’ reasons. We’ll discuss this offseason, for fun.

 -- This was a perfect spot for James Robinson (18-75-1, 3-13-0/6) to go-off…facing a terrible v. the run defense and the first game sans Urban which they were gonna force-feed Robinson to smooth things over with him…and we got a ‘meh’ output from expectations.

Facing the jets this week looks juicy for JRob…but is it? Is anything juicy for Jacksonville players?

 -- Brandin Cooks (7-102-2/10) is the Texans offense…and will miss Week 16 with COVID. Will anyone pickup the slack?

No one can really replace Cooks, but I’d bet my nickel on Nico Collins (2-14-0/4) as some kind of option – the best relationship Mills has outside of Cooks is with Collins. I thought it would produce this game…it didn’t, but note Collins caught a TD pass in this game but landed just out of bounds.

 -- Houston had so many defenders out that rookie LB, who I like, Garret Wallow (11 tackles, 1 sack) drew the start and responded with 11 tackles and was generally flying around all over. He’s a good player. He has a future. I think he could be a big safety, or a nice inside or outside linebacker.

Wallow and Roy Lopez (COVID) being drafted shows someone in the Texans personnel department must have a CFM subscription – did you notice they also claimed Jalen Camp when JAX cut him? That’s a mighty big coincidence.

I’m not sure using the Texans is a good sales pitch for what CFM can do for you for your Fantasy/Dynasty scouting/planning, but maybe it will 2-3 years from now as they all develop. But get CFM anyway, you’ll love it…and we need the support to fight the mainstream scouting disasters oversold to you/foisted upon you such as generational Trevor Lawrence. The new CFM sign ups will begin early January.

Hey, Cal McNair…call me.

Snap Counts of Interest:

38 = Rex B

12 = DJ-no-K

09 = Royce Freeman

44 = O’Shaughnessy

20 = Hollister

18 = Manhertz

**College Football Metrics 2022…new season signups coming in January 2022**

The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!

The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…

Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.

Ross Jacobs

FFM

25 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 15: Eagles 27, Washington 17 

On the first drive of the game, Jalen Hurts was credited with an interception after a short pass hit Dallas Goedert right in the hands, dropped, bounced off the back of his heel, and flew right into a defender's arms. It was a bizarre play and immediately allowed Washington to score and take a 7-0 lead. It's the kind of play that can completely turn around a game and allow a big underdog to pull an upset.

On the next Eagles drive, they were marching down the field and looked ready to score...until Hurts was sacked and fumbled the ball giving Washington good field position. Terry McLaurin caught a deep ball on the next play which led to a Washington FG. 10-0 Washington just minutes into the game off of Eagle turnovers.

After the fumble, the idiotic Eagles fans began to boo Hurts because they have no idea what they are actually watching and instead just listen to the national media telling everyone how awful Hurts is. Shocker: he's not and instead of getting down on himself like he could easily have done, he calmly and decisively carved up the Washington defense the rest of the game.

Unfortunately, the negative plays weren't done just yet. Goedert lost a big play to a hold and dropped a couple of passes, and poorly timed penalties were clearly slowing them down. The Eagles finally managed to right the ship in the late 2nd quarter with a Hurts rushing TD and then a FG to tie the game at 10-10 at halftime.

After halftime the bad luck was gone and the Eagles massacred Washington the rest of the way. The run game started churning like I've rarely seen. The only time I've witnessed holes this large was when the Steelers decided to not play defense against the Vikings a few weeks ago.

Philly was just blowing Washington off the line, and their backs were chewing up ground like nobody's business. It was quickly 20-10 and it looked like a rout was on.

Washington did manage to cut the lead to a mere 3 points in the early 4th quarter after Garrett Gilbert made a fantastic pass across his body while rolling to his left to put Washington in scoring position. It was not enough, however, as Hurts immediately responded with another TD, and the 10 point lead would hold this time.

I didn't come into this rewatch expecting to see much of interest, but I was pleasantly surprised by what I witnessed. Firstly, all credit to Garrett Gilbert. The man was signed off New England's practice squad just 3 days before the game. He barely had any time to learn the playbook, get to know his teammates, or practice, and yet he came in here and played as well as could be expected under the circumstances.

He was relatively calm and collected despite being under a lot of pressure behind a suspect offensive line. He threw the ball well and made good decisions. It was a solid performance and I'd say he deserves a backup job after what he showed here.

Unfortunately for Washington, this loss drops them to 6-8 and their playoff chances, while still technically alive, are remote. They have games remaining against all three divisional opponents, but they'd have to win all three and hope for a few lucky breaks to make it in. I don't foresee that happening. Most likely their season ends at 6 or 7 wins.

What I'm most interested in from this game though is Philly. They've won 4 of their last 5 games and not just winning but blowing teams out. Over the last 5 games they're averaging 27.4 points per game and allowing 18 ppg. If you take it to their last 7 games, they've won 5 of those 7 while scoring 29.3 ppg and allowing 17.6 ppg.

During this stretch the schedule hasn't been very difficult, but they have beaten the pants off the Saints and Broncos, two pretty good teams. They also just barely lost to the emerging Chargers by 3. Their 5 losses early in the season came to the 49'ers, Cowboys, Chiefs, Bucs, and Raiders. That's a pretty tough group on the whole.

I bring all this up because I think we've been looking at Philly as this kind of lower middle of the pack team, but when you look at their results on paper it's much more impressive than that. The defense is pretty good and the offense is firing on all cylinders with Hurts running the spread option game to perfection behind one of the best offensive lines in the league. That offensive line is the key. They were giving Hurts all day to throw, and you see how deadly he can be when protected.

This is not a bad team by any stretch of the imagination. I'm just trying to figure out how good they are. My gut is telling me they are pretty darn good now, maybe comparable in strength to the Patriots. In the NFC that makes them the 6th or 7th best, but in the AFC they might be the 3rd or 4th best team.

After this win they are up to 7-7 with 3 divisional games remaining. They probably are not catching the Cowboys, but there is a path if they win out and the Cowboys lose their other two games to Washington and the Cardinals.

A loss to the Cardinals would surprise no one, but what if Washington beats Dallas this week while Philly wins? Suddenly the door is open and that week 18 game between the Eagles and Cowboys could tie their records up, and if I'm reading everything right, the tiebreak between them would come down to the 5th option, strength of victory.

It's a small chance but a chance nonetheless.

Even if they can't catch Dallas for the division title, if they win 2 of 3 and the Vikings lose to the Rams and Packers, they'll be in. If they run the table they still lose to Dallas, but they could grab the 6th seed if the 49'ers lose to the Rams. I think there's a very good chance Philly is going to at least make the playoffs as the 7th seed, and this is not a team you want to play in January with this run game churning.

Fantasy Notes

--Well, I guess the answer to whether Dallas Goedert (7-135-0/9) would retain his targeting and effectiveness with Hurts at QB instead of Minshew is a resounding yes.

I was super enthused to see his usage here because he was being schemed open with the defense focused on trying to stop the run game, but he was also physically dominating, at one point going up over the top of a defender and snatching the ball away.

Over the last 4 games, Goedert is averaging 4.75 catches for 75.5 yards and 0.5 TD's per game (15.3 ppg in ppr) and that's including a 1 catch 0 yard stinker against the Giants. I see no reason why this trend won't continue over the final weeks of the season. It only took 4 years, but it seems like we're finally getting the Goedert breakout we dreamed of.

--Miles Sanders (18-131-0) finally had himself a game, but it wasn't anything he was doing. He was running through holes so big they barely qualify as holes. It was more like he was just running into open space with no defender within 10 yards of him at times. I'm not sure you can trust it this week against a very good Giant defense. I think he's still an RB3 because it seems like there's a 60-40 split between he and Jordan Howard, plus Hurts is still siphoning off all the rushing TD's.

--Speaking of Jordan Howard (15-69-0), he's the better back of the two, but he's never going to matter for fantasy unless Sanders gets hurt again. This wasn't just him in running the clock out late though. It was a true two-headed monster grinding away throughout the game. Sanders was definitely the lead and in early, but Howard wasn't far behind. He's the backup, but he's going to play significant snaps. Philly is emulating the Baltimore backfield strategy which means they will try to keep their guys as fresh as possible by splitting snaps.

--Devonta Smith looks as good as ever to me, but right now he's just a bit player in this offense. It's exactly like in Baltimore except worse because Hurts doesn't lean on one guy the way Lamar does. There's simply not enough volume to matter for Smith right now. I like his chances to be a WR2 next year, but his time isn't here yet.

--Antonio Gibson left the game early but returned before long. He's re-aggravated the turf toe injury he's been battling since last year and is now officially questionable for Sunday. He hasn't practiced all week though, so doubtful seems more appropriate.

--If Gibson can't go we can expect a split between Jaret Patterson and Jonathan Williams of some kind. What kind of split I can only guess at, but I don't think you want any part of either guy behind this poor offensive line facing a suddenly very good Dallas defense.

--One of Washington's lone bright spots in this mess is Ricky Seals-Jones. He's played very well in the absence of Logan Thomas this year, and even though he was held back here because Gilbert was so unfamiliar with the offense, he's got TE1 upside in Washington's rematch with Philly in week 17. The Eagles have been notoriously weak to TE's this year and having Heinicke back will be a big boost.

Snap Counts of Interest

35 = Miles Sanders

34 = Jordan Howard

10 = Jaret Patterson

2 = Jonathan Williams

R.C. Fischer

FFM

25 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 15: Dolphins 31, Jets 24

I’m not sure how Miami pulled this game out, but they did. The Jets got off to a fast start…clearly the better, more energized team. 10-0 Jets early…17-10 Jets at the half. But then the drops started for NYJ. The Jets protection broke down (6 sacks by MIA) and suddenly the Dolphins took their first lead of the game just into the 4th-quarter, 24-17.

The Jets tied it back up with a pick-six on Tua, but Miami chopped their way back to take the 31-24 lead with 3 minutes left, and the Jets got two possessions in that final span to try and tie/win…but they couldn’t move the against the swarming pass rush of Miami/lack of blocking by the Jets.

Miami wins their 6th in a row (7-7 overall)…(most) all against a who’s who of top of the 2022 NFL Draft/awful NFL teams, but they got the wins and have themselves in the playoff mix. Just when you think their luck will run out…they get the Saints this week with Taysom Hill likely out (along with half their team it seems) with COVID. It’s too big a hill to climb in the AFC wild card standings…Miami needs to win out to have a playoff shot, and then they do have a tiebreaker path to get in over the Chargers if both teams win up with 10 wins. However, we project Miami to finish with an (8-9) record and it not even be a discussion.

The Jets are now (3-11) and have a chance at getting the #1 overall pick with a loss to Jacksonville. Anything is possible, but the Jets should win that game and throw themselves out of the running for the top pick and fall back to a #4-5 pick.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Zach Wilson (13-23 for 170 yards, 0 TDs/0 INTs) really looked good to start this game. He is getting better and better every week. I’m starting to see the flashes of a potential future star. He’s finally checking down/taking what the defense gives him…but after a fast, near-dominant start the protection broke down, the drops started happening, 2nd & long, 3rd & long forced Wilson to have to start taking shots downfield to convert drives…but he couldn’t stay in the pocket long enough to let routes materialize due to the mass pass rush pressure, so the whole thing broke down around him in the 2nd-half.

But even within the fall…I see the Wilson growth – not as erratic, not as risk taking, starting to run the ball smart (he has good speed/feet/is elusive). There are signs flashing here. I wonder if the Week 16 Jags v. Jets game will show an up-close view of just how much more talented Wilson is than the generational fraud Trevor Lawrence. It could happen…but the Jets protection is so bad it may hide it from view just yet.

 -- It’s not helping Wilson that he has lost all his planned starting WRs at various points this season, but Week 16 is the icing on the cake – Davis-Moore-Crowder all expected to be out Week 16. With all of them out, Braxton Berrios (2-10-1, 1-26-0/1) is the WR that Wilson seems to be most comfortable with. He could have a 10+ target game Week 16 against a mediocre Jaguars pass defense.

Keelan Cole (1-9-0/2) will be his other most comfortable option…facing his old team Week 16, which could be some minor ‘revenge’.

Tyler Kroft (2-35-0/2) is his lone healthy TE threat going into Week 16 as well.

Denzel Mims (0-0-0/3) is not a viable option…Mims has caught/connected on 2 of his last 10 targets this season, as his career destruction continues to unfold.

 -- Michael Carter (8-18-0, 1-2-0/2) might miss Week 16 due to COVID…in which case, Tevin Coleman (8-50-0) has some minor RB3 life as the ‘main back’ in lieu of Carter. Ty Johnson was a purposeful inactive this game…that’s how far he’s fallen in the pecking order.

 -- It wasn’t Tua Tagovailoa’s (16-27 for 196 yards, 2 TDs/2 INTs) best game, but when he’s in the groove this offense is annoyingly good…and you can see that Tua can see options and makes quick choices. However, when Tua gets pressured or gets put in 3rd & longs and has to make a play, he becomes a worry…a random event. Tua looks a lot better this season, for sure…but it’s still filled with flaws, but not as flaw-filled as earlier in the season and all last season. He’s gone from awful-to-not bad.

 -- I rewatched this game really focused on Duke Johnson (22-107-2, 1-20-0/1) for obvious reasons…he ran for 100+ yards out of nowhere, he started, and on the live watch he looked pretty impressive in my memory banks. However, watching him more closely here…not that great. Duke is a very limited athlete and wasn’t all that impressive, but the Dolphins stuck with the run game, the Jets are bad at stopping the run, and Myles Gaskin (10-54-0) was just off missing two weeks and they seemed to be bringing him back slower.

I don’t think Johnson has a chance against the Saints Week 16. Gaskin will probably reestablish his lead role, but the Saints run D is a bad matchup for him as well.

 -- No Jaylen Waddle, DeVante Parker (4-68-1/8) got the decent FF output here…it didn’t look all that great, but Parker got a late short slant TD catch to put himself over the top. Parker is a WR3 more than WR2 with Tua, with Waddle the PPR WR1 back.

 -- The Miami-DST is on a roll, but again…it’s mostly all schedule based. I worried about them vs. Taysom, but vs. Ian Book it will probably be another DST1 week.

Is the Jets-DST an option vs. Jacksonville this week? I mean, better than most Jets-DST weeks but the Jets D is so flawed, and Trevor Lawrence plays it safe to avoid turnovers…it’s something but not obvious. I’d like Atlanta or Chicago as the better hail mary DSTs Week 16.

 -- MY MAN Quincy Williams (11 tackles) has averaged 9.5 total tackler per game, when starting/playing 70%+ of the snaps in a game (10 times) this season. That 9.5 tackle pace, if multiplied over the 14 games played so far this season (not the 10 we’re looking at), Quincy would be pacing as a top 5 in the league in total tackles.

What kind of game do you think he’ll have Week 16 vs. the team that screwed him over/cut him, Jacksonville?

‍

Snap Counts of Interest:

65 = Smythe

45 = Gesicki

41 = Duke J

26 = Gaskin

51 = Crowder

43 = Cole

23 = Mims

19 = Berrios

31 = Carter

21 = Coleman

06 = Walter

**College Football Metrics 2022…new season signups coming in January 2022**

The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!

The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…

Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.

Ross Jacobs

FFM

24 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 15: Raiders 16, Browns 14 

Two average teams played, one of them without their starting QB and several other starters due to COVID, and that team lost. That's the summary for this game.

The Raiders led 10-0 at the half, but it wasn't pretty nor impressive. Cleveland finally turned the game around in the 3rd quarter with a Carr fumble that gave them a short field. Nick Chubb punched in the score to make it 10-7. The Raiders extended their lead to 6 with a field goal, but Cleveland was able to put together a drive with just a few minutes left to take the lead.

With just 3 minutes left the Raiders needed a field goal to win, but Carr heaved a bomb into double coverage that was picked off. It looked like Cleveland was going to pull off the comeback. All they had to do was run out the clock, but it was not to be and the Raiders found themselves with one last chance. Carr dinked and dunked his way down the field, and Daniel Carlson booted the game winner with just seconds left.

This win brings the Raiders to 7-7 and keeps them alive for the playoffs. It's probably false hope though. They have remaining games against the Broncos, Colts, and Chargers. They will likely be dogs in all 3. My guess is they win one of those games at best and finish with 7 or 8 wins and out of the playoffs. I just don't see that this team has enough juice left to make a final push.

Tough break for the Browns as they almost pulled off the win without Baker Mayfield. They too are 7-7 now and technically are still alive for the playoffs, but just like with Vegas this team is dying. The offense is weak, the defense isn't great, they just have nothing to hang their hats on. Their remaining schedule is even tougher than the Raiders with the Packers, Steelers, and Bengals on deck. If they could find some way to beat both the Steelers and Bengals they could sneak out a playoff spot, but the odds of that are long. I think they finish just like the Raiders, maybe one win out of the last three games and a disappointing 7 or 8 win season.

Change is coming for both these organizations in the off-season.

Fantasy Notes

--RC is absolutely correct that Donovan Peoples-Jones (4-48-0/8) has the look of a #1 WR. He knows it. The team knows it. Mullens was trying to work him here, but the connection was just off all night. It's possible DPJ could have come down with 1 or 2 more passes, but all the missed ones were very tough catches because the ball was just not in a good spot. This was definitely more on Mullens than DPJ, but if you want to be a star in the league you have to find a way to make those catches.

I don't think you can use him for the rest of the year, but depending on what happens with Mayfield and the offense this next off-season, DPJ might be on my short list of undervalued players in 2022.

--On the other side, Zay Jones (6-67-0/9) has been perking up for weeks now as we've noted. Carr left another 70-80 yards on the field with some inaccurate throws to Jones or it might have been a huge day and we'd all be chasing him for our championship matchups. Despite the tick up the last 4 weeks, I don't think this is some imminent breakout. Jones is still just a WR3, but that's better than most anything else you'll find on waivers this last week.

--While Jones has been perking up lately, you could technically say the same for Bryan Edwards (3-8-1/4), but that just means he's no longer a complete zero. Now he's just another WR5. The highlight of his day was a phenomenal TD snatch on a high back shoulder throw from Carr. After that play though, Carr barely even looked Edwards's way again. I don't understand what the problem is with him because he looks just fine to me, but clearly there's been some issue all year. Whatever it is, I want no part of Edwards now or in the future unless something massive changes.

--Hunter Renfrow got completely shut down here after several straight weeks over 100 yards. Cleveland just has a really good secondary and they were all over Renfrow here. Unfortunately, it doesn't get any easier this week against an ascending Broncos defense. His targets should bounce back a little, but I'd expect more of a muted game than anything. Something in the range of 5-6 catches for 60 yards or so.

--Darren Waller still hasn't practiced this week with ankle and back injuries. It's looking like he's going to be out again this week unless he's able to get in a limited practice today (Friday).

If he can't go Foster Moreau (7-65-0/9) has some appeal, but with only 3 catches last week and 1 the week before that (all with Waller out) this game is looking like somewhat of a fluke. He's not a particularly good player and a lot of his action here came on the final drive where Carr was just dumping everything short. If you're super desperate I guess it's as good a shot as any, but I'd rather shoot my shot with a Ricky Seals-Jones for example.

--Nick Mullens (20-30 for 147 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) did about as good a job as you could hope for in this terrible offense and missing so many players. He's a decent backup, but this was just an unfair situation all things considered. Mayfield is supposed to play against the Packers on Saturday, but it likely doesn't matter. Cleveland will need a tremendous amount of luck to win that game no matter who the QB is.

Snap Counts of Interest

52 = DPJ

44 = Higgins

37 = Chubb

29 = Felton

18 = D'Ernest Johnson

59 = Zay Jones

54 = Renfrow

48 = Edwards

20 = DeSean Jackson

R.C. Fischer

FFM

24 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 15: Rams 20, Seahawks 10

This game was a 10-10 tie into the 4th-quarter. The Rams playing better but a little lax against Seattle, and the Seahawks playing for their playoff lives. Eventually the superior team started to pull away in the 4th-quarter to the victory…the Rams took it by 10 points and put Seattle out of the playoffs, and sent them to their first losing season in a long time. It wasn’t a masterpiece, but the Rams did what they had to do.

Seattle is now (5-9) with likely big changes coming this offseason…one of Pete Carroll or Russell Wilson is going. Only an idiot(s) would choose to stick with Carroll in that equation, so it’s 50/50 that a football ownership/management group does just that. There’s no way it makes any sense to bring both guys back. I’ll assume Seattle will let Carroll resign with dignity and let Russ help choose the next head coach he wants to work with.

Carroll has to see it coming, so Seattle will probably play loose/unpredictable the next few weeks as Carroll will operate like a substitute teacher and/or delegates a bunch to his staff. It’s just this team is so bad…I think they’re all making vacation plans and looking forward to next year.

The Rams are now (10-4) and in great shape for the playoffs, and with a shot to take the NFC West from Arizona now. Odds are against them but it's within reason now.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- As I was chirping about all last week leading into this game…that Rashaad Penny’s (11-39-0, 2-5-0/2) Week 14 explosion was matchup based (v. HOU), on top of him being good. Week 15 vs. LAR was not going to be a favorable for FF output due to the opponent…with a risk of a real FF-dud, and that’s what happened.

It didn’t help that Penny missed a chunk of the game due to his favorite play; the old: ‘Get hurt and go to the locker room’ play. Penny returned late but was still ineffective and Seattle was down and passing with DeeJay Dallas (8-41-1, 3-11-0/4).

I wonder the following thought, which is something (probably useless) to worry about…but just talkin’ wild thoughts:

I wonder, now that Seattle is toast for 2021 season, and Carroll knowing/assuming he’s done…will he pull back on Rashaad Penny now? I mean, the guy has screwed him for four years – a wasted 1st-round draft pick…always hurt…never lived up to expectations. Penny was his best RB to try and improbably run to the playoff hopes…but now, with those dreams dashed, does Carroll throttle back on Penny or even totally screw him going into his free agency, and/or give a DeeJay Dallas or Travis Homer…or even Alex Collins an extra opportunity for their recent efforts? Why help Penny going forward?

Just the conspiracy theory in me…or the bastard in me (because that’s what I’d do).

 -- We all wondered: what would the split be like when Darrell Henderson (6-23-0, 2-4-0/2) came back from injury/COVID, between he and Sony Michel (18-92-0, 2-23-0/2)? The answer = a resounding tilt to Michel.

Perhaps, the Rams were comfortable to bring back DH slowly…and he’ll get more involved next week? Perhaps. But Michel is starting to work well, and Sean McVay has never been that pro-DH…so, finally, all these weeks…late into the season – I might be right from my preseason prediction: McVay is gonna turn on Henderson.

For sure, when Cam Akers is back…McVay will shut-back-out Henderson in 2022.

…or in 2021 season, because Cam Akers is slated to be back practicing this week. I suspect Akers will practice a little this week and not get activated Week 16. He’ll get more conditioning Week 17…and maybe Week 18 too, to try to be ready for the playoffs. I don’t believe Akers will see a touch in Weeks 16-17, but suddenly it’s not off the table.

Weeks 16-17, you have to bet on Michel as the lead back/main touch guy but if Hendo gets hot in-game it can go any which way.

 -- Odd output from the non-Kupps…

Van Jefferson (2-23-0/2) and Odell Beckham (1-7-0/3) were ghosts…against a mediocre pass defense. They’ve both been good/decent together this season, for FF, so I’m not panicking if I am running with them. However, Odell is starting to flash some warning signs of being Cleveland Odell. But this Rams situation is a good fit for him to show up when he wants to, so I think he’s as OK a WR2-3 as you’ll find. Ditto Van J.

 -- Russell Wilson (17-31 for 156 yards, 0 TD/1 INT) is not helping the case of the people versus Pete Carroll-not-allowing-Russ-to-be-cooking.

In his last 8 games, Russ has thrown for over 250 yards in a game…just one time. 9 TDs/5 INTs in that span…barely a TD pass per game. He barely runs the ball anymore (1 rushing TD this season).

Blame Pete…blame Russ. Blame Russ’s finger injury. Blame whatever…but his production has been sagging for two seasons now, especially as the season wears on. Russ has nothing to play for this season and he doesn’t care about Pete Carroll, so how good is he going to be these final few games?

 -- And Russ’s bad cooking is leaving an upset FF-stomach for D.K. Metcalf (6-52-0/12).

Did you know that since Russell Wilson returned from his few games missed with the finger injury that D.K Metcalf has not caught a TD pass? Nor has he gone over 60 yards in a game in that span?

What causes it to change ahead?

 -- If Seattle is checked out, in a sense, now that they are out of the playoff chase…will the nice matchups of v. CHI and v. DET the next two weeks work for the Seahawks-DST? Maybe…maybe not. I’m skeptical…but the potentially messy weather for Week 16 might be OK, especially if Justin Fields is out.

 -- What about the Rams-DST with two mediocre matchups the next two weeks…at MIN, at BAL.

Well, Week 16 will be MIN without Dalvin Cook, which helps.

In their past 6 games, the Rams defense has given up 22 or more points in a game four times. But in their last three games they’ve shut down Week 13 JAX and Week 15 SEA. MIN and BAL ahead have better offenses than JAX and SEA.

I think the Rams-DST will be OK the next two weeks, but it’s not a slam dunk.

Snap Counts of Interest:

48 = Michel

18 = DHendo

33 = DeeJay Dallas

24 = Penny

01 = Colby Parkinson

**College Football Metrics 2022…new season signups coming in January 2022**

The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!

The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…

Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.

Ross Jacobs

FFM

24 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 15: Bills 31, Panthers 14 

This was a get-right game for the Bills. There's nothing particularly “wrong” with them really. They've lost 3 of their last 5 games to the Patriots, Bucs, and Colts. Those aren't bad teams.

The Bills aren't a weak team. They are a good but flawed team, as so many are. The biggest thing holding them back is the offensive line. They just are not a good group, and rookie RT Spencer Brown is the weakest link. They really need to get this addressed to have a chance in the playoffs.

I think because they completely crush some teams, we started to think they were better than they are. But they really remind me of the Bucs in a lot of ways. They demolish the weak but are susceptible to better teams, especially physical teams. Can the Bills win a Superbowl? Yes, with some luck. Are they the favorites? Absolutely not.

With the Patriots losing to the Colts this past week, the AFC East is suddenly wide open again. This game is massive. Win and the Bills should run the table to close out the season and get to 11 wins. Do that and they should win the division in tiebreaks. Lose and they are hoping for a wildcard.

As long as this game isn't played in a massive snowstorm, I think the Bills should be able to pull out a close win over the Patriots. It's going to be tight, but let's see if McDermott can pull out a tough win to finish. He has a tendency to fail in these big situations.

I wouldn't attempt to use the Bills defense this week against the Patriots. They have really fallen off hard since Tre'Davious White got injured, and they are particularly weak to power running right now, the Patriots specialty.

Not much to say about the Panthers. They are looking at 5-6 wins max. The defense is fine. They should be a top 10 group again next year. The issue for this team is the same as it is for most. Terrible QB and terrible offensive line.

In fact, the difference between the Bills and Panthers pretty much just comes down to the difference between Cam/Darnold/Walker and Allen. That's what an elite QB does for you, lift an otherwise poor team into the playoffs. I'm not so sure Josh Allen wouldn't be my choice for MVP this year. I know the team has been a mild disappointment, but if they can win out and take the AFC East I think Allen has a reasonable case to be made. He won't get it regardless, but he should be in the discussion. He does more with less than just about any QB in the league. I absolutely love watching him play QB.

Fantasy Notes

--Matt Rhule has already announced Cam will start again this week but that Darnold would play as well. It's just going to be a rotation to see if one guy gets hot. Hint: they won't. Both guys suck and don't have any time to throw behind this offensive line. Tampa is going to murder them. Do not start Cam. His legs have been helping him work for fantasy a bit, but Tampa is likely to squash him the way they squashed Taysom and now he'll be rotating in as well. It's just a bad situation all around.

--I guess Ameer Abdullah is the back to own over Chuba Hubbard? I mean, you don't really want either guy, but Abdullah is the only one catching dump passes and that's the only real path to points for the backs right now. Just avoid this backfield please.

--I cannot get a handle on this Buffalo backfield. One week it's Moss taking the lead, then Breida looks like he's going to get in for some ppr work, and now Devin Singletary (22-86-1) is the lone guy getting 20+ carries.

I've said all along he's their best back, and maybe McDermott has finally figured that out, but I doubt it. I can't find any info on why Moss was a healthy scratch here, but I'm guessing it's got to do with his play and some recent fumble troubles.

If we knew Singletary would be the sole guy against the Patriots, he might have some RB2 appeal, but I don't think you can count on that with any certainty. The plan is different every week seemingly at random. The only reason he even got 22 carries is because they were crushing the Panthers and could run the clock out late. That won't be the case against the Patriots. Unless you are really desperate I would just avoid starting Singletary this week.

--Josh Allen still looks as good as ever. His toe didn't seem to be bothering him at all, or if it was you couldn't tell. I'd expect a healthy dose of him running against the Patriots this week. His passing numbers are down because he has to get rid of the ball so fast, but he's still a QB1 because he scores so much.

--Gabriel Davis (5-85-2/7) has been a TD scoring machine the past few weeks in the wake of Emmanuel Sanders falling off. This is his 4th TD in the last 3 weeks and there's clearly a developing connection between him and Allen. He's shot up from a rotational guy to playing 85%+ of the snaps the past two weeks.

He's not the greatest receiver I've ever seen. Just an average athlete at WR. He was the lead guy for UCF in 2019 where he was a downfield playmaker for an explosive offense. Not much seems to have changed in the pros as he's averaging 16.2 ypc after averaging 17.1 as a rookie last year.

Again, he's not doing anything particularly special, but he is the established #2 WR for Allen now, and that means he's going to do alright for fantasy. Don't fight the TD's too much. He's drawing weaker coverage because teams are so worried about Diggs. His floor is around 5 catches for 65 yards each week (11.5 ppr) with chances at TD's. He's a solid WR3 to finish out the season with.

IDP Notes

--Yetur Gross-Matos (5 tackles, 2.5 sacks) had himself a nice game. I'm honestly not sure how it happened though. He was not noticeable at all. I only remember seeing one of his sacks and it was just a pure coverage sack, nothing he was doing. The Panthers pass rushers were teeing off on a bad Buffalo offensive line, especially against Spencer Brown, but Gross-Matos was the least impressive of the group. I don't think this is something that is emerging with him.

Snap Counts of Interest

40 = Abdullah

36 = Hubbard

63 = Gabriel Davis

58 = Stefon Diggs

32 = Cole Beasley

R.C. Fischer

FFM

24 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 15: Bengals 15, Broncos 10

This was a slugfest between two of the better ‘almost’ teams…

Denver is ‘almost’ a playoff-worthy team…they are a step away, their defense is really coming on, but they have a problem on offense/QB (Teddy).

Cincinnati is an ‘almost’ too…almost the best team in the AFC. I will probably say this every month of every year until the Bengals win a Super Bowl: Had they drafted Sewell/Slater instead of Ja’Marr Chase they would be the best team in the AFC right now and poised to be that in 2022+. You don’t want to play Cincinnati in the playoffs as it is. 2021 may not be their time, but watch out in 2022-2023.

This game was two good teams slugging it out and battling with field goals, and then the game changed in the 3rd-quarter. Cincy leading 9-3 and then Teddy Bridgewater took a hit and landed on his head and was taken out of the game for good. Drew Lock entered and the offense suddenly had a spark…Denver took a 10-9 lead. Cincy took it back soon after to go up 15-10. Denver was driving into the Cincy red zone mid-4th-quarter and then a weird play where Lock had the ball just taken from his hands by a pass rusher…no real contact, just reach out…a snatch & grab job and a crucial turnover.

The teams exchanged a few drives in those few final minutes, but their defenses were so tight, no scoring…and Cincy held on for the win.

The Bengals rise to (8-6) and find themselves sudden leaders of the AFC North…and the favorites to capture the title. If Cincy defeats Baltimore this week, then the Bengals should have the inside track at the AFC North (70%+ chance by estimates if CIN wins and CLE-PIT also lose, as expected, this week), but it’s still very much in flux. If there is a football god, the Bengals will win the division – they are the best team in the AFC North by far.

The Broncos fall to (7-7) and need to get to 10 wins to realistically have a shot at the playoffs…thus, they need to ‘win out’. They’re not likely to do that with at LAC Week 17, and v. KC Week 18. Denver is still alive for the playoffs, but it’s a very low probability…they’re essentially dead for the playoffs.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- This offense just looks better, more dangerous with Drew Lock (6-12 for 88 yards, 1 TD/0 INT). It’s too late now but had Denver just groomed Lock through the entire year with their defense coming on strong – this could have been a dangerous playoff wild card.  Instead, they will likely fall short and probably get Vic Fangio fired…but who really needs to go is O-C Pat Shurmur.  

The offense will not fall off with Lock this week v. LV (how could it get worse?)…he takes more chances, but he also makes more things happen.

Lock helps Albert Okwuegbunam (3-58-0/4) as they are well-documented friends/college teammates. Albert might be a TE1 shot this week, but it really more hurts/drops Noah Fant and rises Okwuegbunam up to the Fant TE1.5 projection level…potentially.

Nothing, not even Lock, can help Courtland Sutton (2-12-0/7)…he looks terrible. Mike Hilton (4 tackles) ate him alive. Also did you know Jerry Jeudy (0-0-0/4) is still in the NFL? Boy, the Henry Ruggs and Jerry Jeudy Alabama WR high pick draft duo really have mattered nicely in the NFL?

Which reminds me…this Bengals defense is really good. They squashed the Broncos most of this game without their best defensive player out with COVID (Awuzie).

 -- The better defense of these two really good defenses…is the Denver Broncos defense. They are really starting to emerge. It’s one thing for Cincy to shutdown this Denver disaster offense led by Teddy and failure O-C Pat Shurmur. It’s another to make Joe Burrow (15-22 for 157 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) struggle.

Tee Higgins (2-23-0/3) caught two passes in the first 7 minutes and then they locked him down the next 53 minutes…no catches. The Denver secondary/coverage unit is finally all healthy and maybe as good as it gets in the NFL right now. Ja’Marr Chase (1-3-0/4) got totally wiped out. Better game coming for the Cincy WRs against BAL. This was a Denver thing, not a self-induced Cincy passing game failure.

 -- I thought Joe Mixon (17-58-0, 1-2-0/1) was in real trouble to play Week 16 with the injury he had late in this game, but (as of this writing) Mixon has practiced in full two days in a row, so he must be good-to-go. Full trust.

 -- Lastly…

I’m so proud of myself for pushing Evan McPherson (3/3 FGs) as a specific Week 15 playoff game monster upside kicking at Denver (the air)…and, well, he hit a 53 and 58 yard FG for the sweet bonus action and then added another 26-yarder to get you an RB2 type of week…winning some people their FF-games Week 15.

It brings me so much joy to watch all these games, to scout all these players, to watch the Senior Bowl practices and watch all the tape college and pro to get a feel for these guys…including kickers, and then months of work can mean the win-loss with such a move as switching kickers to McPherson in a do-or-die week, and it hits for all of us that utilized it.

The little things…

Snap Counts of Interest:

44 = Javonte

31 = Gordon

60 = Fant

30 = Albert O.

31 = Mixon

16 = Perine

53 = Browning

42 = J Griffith (9 tackles, 1 TFL, 2 QB hits…and should start again this week for Kenny Young)

**College Football Metrics 2022…new season signups coming in January 2022**

The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!

The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…

Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.

Ross Jacobs

FFM

23 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 15: Cowboys 21, Giants 6 

This was an ugly affair. The Giants just have nothing going for them on offense right now. Terrible offensive line, no QB, and the skill position players are beyond frustrated. The Cowboys defense just crushed them and that was the game essentially.

At first I was confused about why the Dallas offense looked so poor here. Was this some new issue that they would have to worry about moving forward?

The answer is no, not exactly, although things aren't perfect. The biggest reason why they looked bad is that the Giants defense is just really, really solid. They don't have any star power right now, but if the offense wasn't constantly putting them in bad positions, they could be a top 10 unit. Once they get Blake Martinez back next year this defense might even be a top 5 unit with a couple minor tweaks.

Quincy Roche (who New York plucked from Pittsburgh this preseason) and Azeez Ojulari are looking like an emerging young pair of pass rushers for the Giants in the vein of Carolina's Haason Reddick and Brian Burns. And the scary part is they are both rookies.

The offense is still too bad to help them so you can't start the Giants for fantasy yet, but I'll be looking at them very hard in 2022 as a potential shock defense that you can draft late.

There's a lot of pressure in New York to dump Dave Gettleman, and I have to admit I've never been his biggest fan, but RC is right that Gettleman has really assembled a lot of talent and deserves another year. This team is a QB and some offensive line support away from being a very strong team.

The Cowboys only scored two offensive TD's here, and they both came from short fields after the Giants turned the ball over. I already talked about how sneaky good the Giants defense is, but the Cowboys do have a couple issues of their own.

The biggest thing plaguing them here was the absence of Tyron Smith again. This offense consistently takes a step back whenever he is out. Dak was under constant pressure here, and Zeke had nowhere to run. Smith hasn't practiced so far this week and is considered day-to-day. They need him back to have a shot at a Superbowl.

Dallas is up to 10-4 with three winnable games remaining. None of them are gimmes, but they should be favored against Washington and the Eagles. We'll see if Arizona can bounce back against the Colts this week. If they are collapsing, that just helps Dallas more. If they can win out they have a shot at possibly the #2 seed in the NFC.

If Smith can make it back for the playoffs Dallas has as good a chance as anyone outside of Green Bay to make the championship game. The defense is playing well and the offense is good if not all that explosive anymore. They are playing like a slightly worse version of the Packers right now (no surprise since McCarthy was the coach there for so long), a versatile offense with lots of options to attack with and a stout but not shutdown defense. It's a good recipe for postseason success.

Fantasy Notes

--Dak Prescott (28-37 for 217 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) hasn't been the same for fantasy in weeks and I see no change on the horizon. He doesn't have to do much right now. The formula has changed. With the emergence of the Dallas defense, the offense can simply play the ball control game and grind out wins. It's the same thing that's held back Rodgers's stats this year. Dak is still capable of those huge weeks where he scores 3-4-5 times, but it's not the norm anymore. And again, the presence of Smith is a huge bump for him. No Smith, don't expect a big game from Dak.

--I still maintain there's nothing (or not much) wrong with Ezekiel Elliott (16-52-1, 3-20-0/4). Maybe he doesn't quite have the same short area burst as he did before the knee injury, but right now I just don't see anywhere for him to run. He was getting hit in the backfield on nearly every carry.

Part of the reason I projected a strong finish for Zeke was the potential for increased carries with Pollard out, but Tony was back this week and looking as good as ever. Because of this development you do have to tone back expectations for Zeke. He's an RB2 for the moment in this split backfield.

--Tony Pollard (12-74-0, 3-13-0/3) was shockingly back in here and looking just fine after it looked like his foot injury could sideline him the rest of the regular season. I guess you can use him how you were using him before. He'll see good touch counts but is still missing out on the scores most weeks. Think of him like Chase Edmonds from early in the season. Solid floor but not much upside.

--With the offensive line struggling, the passing game has become very muted for Dallas. It's still mostly short targets to Dalton Schultz and CeeDee Lamb in the slot, and then Michael Gallup has become the de facto #2 WR ahead of Amari Cooper.

I still have no idea why Gallup has ascended ahead of Cooper, but that's the reality. The only guys you can count on these final weeks are Schultz and Lamb though. Schultz is a ppr top 5 TE and Lamb is a WR1.5 or so. If he would stop dropping passes he'd be a WR1.

--Similar to the Zeke/Pollard issue, the Giants are dealing with much the same with Barkley and Booker. There's nothing wrong with Barkley. He is moving just fine. He's just got nowhere to run. Booker looks great at times because the defense doesn't care about him. When Barkley is in, he's the obvious focus of the defense. You just can't count on him for fantasy right now. He's a RB3.

Also, in both of these RB cases, the two guys averaging better ypc, Pollard and Booker, are being used more on edge runs and sweeps while Zeke and Barkley are just taking straight ahead carries up the middle into bad offensive lines. It's no wonder the edge guys are more efficient and thus look better. They are running into space instead of into a wall of defenders.

--Jake Fromm came in for Mike Glennon late. Glennon didn't play badly at all really. He just has no time to throw. The turnovers weren't even really his fault, just bad luck.

Fromm didn't look awful exactly, but he's every weak-armed, smart, backup QB ever. He can run the offense and make predetermined throws when on time, but rush him and he's going to throw the ball into traffic.

Facing the Eagles this week is problematic. They have a good defensive line that's going to give this bad Giants line fits, and Darius Slay has been a turnover monster lately. There's a high chance of a pick 6 or two happening if Fromm starts.

IDP Notes

--Trevon Diggs (4 tackles, 2 pd, 1 INT) had another INT gift wrapped for him by Glennon. I swear every one of his INTs this year has been thrown right to him. He's a fine corner but not nearly as good as he's being portrayed because of these fluky TO's. To me GB's Rasul Douglas is the better corner right now. Don't fight it for fantasy though.

Snap Counts of Interest

44 = Zeke

29 = Pollard

37 = Saquon Barkley

28 = Devontae Booker