Ross Jacobs

FFM

14 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 14: Packers 45, Bears 30 

The Bears got off to a hot start here and with the help of a few fluky plays and some heroics from Jakeem Grant, they somehow managed to lead this game for quite some time. Of course, it was not meant to be. Chicago simply can't hang with the Packers, and Aaron Rodgers just methodically carved them up until the ending was no longer in doubt.

The Packers are up to 10-3 with the North all but theirs already. They currently have the #2 seed, but they might be able to get to the #1 seed if Arizona stumbles against a much more difficult schedule than what Green Bay has to face. I think the Packers will ultimately wind up with the top seed, and that is going to really change the nature of the NFC playoffs because teams would much rather go play in Arizona's dome than deal with the cold if Wisconsin.

This is a really good team and they are just getting better by the week. I wasn't a fan early on but I see it now.

The only thing holding them back is health. Jaire Alexander sounds like he'll be available this week or next week at the absolute latest. When he's back GB is in the conversation with Arizona for best defense in the league. Stokes and Douglas have been fantastic but Alexander takes them to another level. There were a few crazy broken plays in coverage last night, but I'm not concerned about it. Sometimes things happen.

David Bakhtiari probably needs more time. He practiced once at the end of November but his knee acted up on him again. He's still a few weeks away at best but it's possible he'll be ready for the playoffs.

A possible larger issue developing is Aaron Rodgers and his toe he fractured in November. Apparently he aggravated the injury during this win and it's causing him a great deal of pain. He looked into surgery when it first happened and decided against it, but now that might be back on the table. If he does have a procedure done it would likely be to immobilize the toe. You can imagine how that might make life difficult for him in the pocket. Mahomes dealt with something similar last year in the playoffs, and we saw how that turned out for him.

It's still very early and we don't have much information yet, but my best guess is Rodgers attempts to play through this and is somewhat affected by it, again much like Mahomes was last year. Getting Bakhtiari back would greatly help as far as protecting Rodgers so he doesn't have to move as much. If those three players can all play then this might be the best team top to bottom in the entire league. They are close to being the best even without two of them.

The poor Bears fall to 4-9 and don't have a lot going for them. Chicago fans are probably feeling ok right now thinking they just gave the Packers a run for their money, but honestly it was pretty fluky that the Bears were even in the game and the Packers still stomped on the gas pedal and ran them over. They might get lucky and win another game or two, but all that does is drop their draft position down even farther.

I can't see how Matt Nagy survives this. There have simply been too many problems, too many issues exacerbated by him that have dropped this team into a death spiral. Drafting Justin Fields was a last ditch effort to provide a spark, and you see how that turned out. The media won't catch on for 4-5 more years as Fields goes the way of Darnold, but you and I know he's not a franchise QB. Never was, never will be. But now the Bears are saddled with him for at least another few years. It's not going to be pretty.

Fantasy Notes

--First things first...did I not warn you about Jakeem Grant two weeks ago? Now I'll admit I didn't see this type of breakout coming but only because I thought the Bears would never up his snap counts significantly and actually get him the ball. Credit to them, they saw what I saw and it kept them in this game for a bit.

Grant isn't a superstar player. But he is a very fast, solid, useful guy to get touches to. It's amazing to me that coaches still don't understand the very simple strategy of getting the ball directly to their most explosive players and letting them try to make something happen.

Every middle school kid knows that's how you play. Who's our fastest guy? You? Ok, let's give him the ball every single play and it doesn't matter if the other team knows it or not, they aren't fast enough to stop him forever. Instead, these genius coaches would rather draw up some complex gobbledygook play with 37 words in it for his players to try and memorize and then throw a curl route to some slow ass 275 lb TE. Nothing makes them happier than that.

Back to Grant. He's a good player. Definitely should be on the field taking screen passes, reverses, a couple handoffs, returning punts..etc. Just get the ball in his hands and sometimes magic happens like it did here. Honestly, they still aren't going to him often enough, but hey it's a start. Still don't think he's usable for fantasy yet, but now that they've seen what he can do...we'll have to see.

--RC's big call from this game was for the emergence of Marquez Valdes-Scantling (3-20-0/5) and that didn't work out so well, but note MVS just missed out on two possible TD's here. One was a tough catch that went off his hands and another just out of his reach. The opportunities were there. I think perhaps we were a little overzealous with him, but he is very close to popping a bit. I'd treat him as a WR3 for the time being.

--Part of what's holding MVS back a little is the re-emergence of Allen Lazard (6-75-1/7). This is the first time in a while that I've seen Rodgers actually trying to work Lazard as something other than a random option. I don't think Rodgers will throw for 341 yards most weeks, so I wouldn't count on the heavy yardage totals for Lazard, but he might be getting a few more scoring options his way with Cobb out. Maybe it pushes Lazard to a low end WR2? He's definitely in play again.

--Another big change with the GB offense that's helping...AJ Dillon (15-71-0) is the new main carry back and Aaron Jones (5-35-1, 3-30-1/3) is being used as a change of pace/3rd down back. It's a fantastic plan for the team, but it's going to be somewhat frustrating for fantasy owners.

Jones “started” the game as usual, but Dillon was quickly in and taking the bulk of the work. He's their grinder, their bully they use to help wear down the defense. Think Derrick Henry's early years before he became the entire offense. Unfortunately for Dillon, while he's now getting good carry counts, Jones is still getting most of the red zone opportunities, at least for now.

I think you can consider Dillon a RB2 now. He didn't have any catches here, but he's usually involved in the passing game a little and he should also get more short TD's soon. If you have Jones I'd be worried. The TD's propped him up here but those won't always be available. My best guess is he's still probably a low RB2 but I wouldn't swear to it.

--I've bashed Justin Fields (18-33 for 224 yards 2 TD/2 INT, 9-74-0) a lot this year and for good reason. He's not a good QB. The numbers look ok here considering the caliber of defense he was playing against, but about 100 of his yards came from Grant and Byrd blowing through the defense by themselves for long TD's.

Long term I don't see much hope for him. He's skittish and inaccurate. Short term he works pretty well for fantasy now that he's running more. I'm still never blown away by his runs though the way I am with Lance or Hurts or Taysom. You'd think a 225 lb guy with 4.4 speed would be more explosive than he is. I'd consider him a QB 1.5 for now.

*RC NOTE: I thought this was one of Fields’s better games…showing some hope of being a Jalen Hurts type QB…a more willing runner of late (partially because he struggles as a passer). Being a Hurts-type QB is sweet for FF…not so great for NFL purposes. 

Lamar, Hurts, Fields, Cam, Taysom…the football world's future is not going to the ‘running QB’. It’s a myth…it’s actually a problem (for the teams getting suckered into it). It looks sexy. The media loves it. But the reality is…old Tom Brady and broken toe Aaron Rodgers are exponentially more NFL-valuable/more ‘winning’...but less ‘cool’. The cool kids like the runner-QBs because they also like cartoon depictions of the players who just a scored a TD to pop up on their TV screen, because nothing equals ratings like fans you have to drag/sucker into the product.

Why can’t football go…”Look, we’re football. We’re the greatest episodic TV show on the planet. We’re everywhere all week if you wanna watch. We get millions of viewers because people play Fantasy and gamble on it. We don’t need to try and get 0.1 more ratings by acting like goofs and spending time/money to bait the uninterested in watching with cartoons, contests, and televised games on Nickelodeon. We’re football. If you wanna watch the Masked Singer…God help you, be my guest. We’ll be over here with a Jacksonville game on a Thursday Night that will beat any TV show you got all week, so no more song and dance routines to get you interested, and insulting our vast existing customer base.”

IDP Notes

--De'Vondre Campbell (16 tackles) is so so so good. By now anyone that reads my reports knows I've been a fan of his for several years now. I don't care what PFF had to say about him in the past. They claim he was a journeyman, average LB and only suddenly this year morphed into one of the league's best. That's obvious nonsense. Campbell has been playing at an extremely high level going back to his time with the Cardinals and Falcons. There was no reason he should have been available to sign so cheaply this off-season.

GB is the winners for it. Campbell is playing DPOY caliber football. He might get a little consideration for it but I doubt he wins no matter how deserving. It's a shame. Hopefully the Packers up his pay next year. The man deserves it and more. He has become the heart and soul of this defense in one year. It's truly incredible.

*RC NOTE: The same PFF who dismissed Rasul Douglas, too. 

Snap Counts of Interest

58 = Davante Adams

53 = Allen Lazard

43 = Marquez Valdes-Scantling

35 = AJ Dillon

29 = Aaron Jones

57 = Darnell Mooney

48 = Allen Robinson

36 = Damiere Byrd

29 = Jakeem Grant

R.C. Fischer

FFM

14 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 14: Cowboys 27, Football Team 20

24-0 Dallas at the half. And as we are learning in the NFL the last 2-14 weeks…no huge lead is ever safe. Teams take a big halftime lead and start to go into a shell in the 2nd-half, while the down team starts playing with reckless abandon. The ahead team plays not to lose…and then they almost do lose.

Washington had this 24-point lead down to 27-20 with 3+ minutes left, and with the ball -- but as they drove down for a game tie/win/loss…they threw a pick…and ‘ballgame’. It really shouldn’t have been that close; Dallas was the superior team. It was fluky that the WTF’s got back in it, one part Dallas being sloppy, one part fluke. Washington is no serious threat to Dallas.

The Cowboys are now (9-4) and in total control of the NFC East. I’d argue, at full strength, they are possibly the best team in the NFC…but they can never get to full strength (now Tyron Smith is going to miss Week 15). Maybe by the playoffs they can get healthy – their big lead in the East allows them to maybe coast a little, throttle back a little and heal up some players. Dallas should finish with 12 wins and a long shot hope for a #1 seed…but more likely they are a #3-4 seed in a loaded NFC.

Washington is (6-7) and doesn’t belong in the playoffs…but they still have life. All I care is they get to 8 wins to ‘push’ my ‘over’ 8.0 wins preseason bet on them. We project that’s where they end – 8 wins, and out of the playoffs.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Three Dallas players don’t look totally ‘right’ to me. They are…

The first of three is Dak Prescott (22-39 for 211 yards, 1 TD/2 INT)

4 TDs/5 INTs the past 4 games. 6 TDs/6 INTs the last 5 games. Under 240 yards passing in four of his last 6 games. And the slide is happening against weaker pass defenses.

Part of the issue is some of that time he missed Tyron Smith in some games during that stretch, but only a few. Part of the issue, from what I am seeing…Dak just looks a tad jittery/jumpy/not himself passing, to my eyes. I don’t know if it’s an injury he’s keeping to himself…or if it is residual from last year’s injury...or I don’t know what it is, but it hasn’t been great…and we know Dak is pretty good/great.

Something is up and it is dragging down some players around him, for FF.

 -- The second of the three is the worst-looking one… Ezekiel Elliott (12-45-0, 1-15-0/6)

One catch off 6 targets this game. Unbelievable.

Another sub-4.0 ypc game…five games in a row. Zeke’s last 7 games ypc per game…

Week 8 = 3.1

Week 9 = 5.1

Week 10 = 2.9

Week 11 = 3.6

Week 12 = 2.8

Week 13 = 3.5

Week 14 = 3.8

Zeke has a sprained PCL, and that is like a weight on your back trying to play with it…reduced speed, reduced agility…beyond the pain/discomfort. Everyone can see it. He needs time off. He probably won’t get it. Given the 3-game lead now and facing NYG this week…MAYBE they really throttle him back and let his knee have an extra week to heal. Why they keep pushing him all week, I have no idea. Once healed, he’ll be fine.

Tony Pollard has a torn plantar fasciitis, and he may need another week or two…or go on IR. If so, Corey Clement (13-44-0, 1-2-0/2) is the ‘next man up’…and that may matter vs. NYG. He may see 10+ touches Week 15…maybe.

Clement has been a long-time grinder backup for the Eagles, then released by the new regime, and picked up by Dallas and he’s been rostered all season. He’s a low-end athlete, but experienced, tough/a grinder.

 -- The third letdown of the Dallas triumvirate is Amari Cooper (5-51-1/7). He’s not playing poorly…he just looks like the least dangerous of the Dallas trio of WRs anymore. No longer ‘wow’ or ‘elite’ or ‘the man’.

CeeDee Lamb (7-61-0/10) is the Dak go-to anymore, but Gallup looks way better/quicker/more effective than any of them.

Since Michael Gallup (5-60-0/9) has returned to playing 90%+ of the snaps (Week 11), look at the target distribution between Amari and Gallup since then…

5.0 rec. (9.3 targets), 61.5 yards, 0.25 TDs per game = Gallup (last 4 weeks)

3.3 rec. (4.5 targets), 45.0 yards, 0.25 TDs per game = Amari (last 4 weeks)

Gallup has caught 5 passes in a game for four straight games. Amari has caught 5 or more passes in a game 4 times this season (in 11 games).

The new pecking order for the Dallas passing game…

Lamb

Gallup

Cooper

 -- Not Dalton Schultz (1-4-0/3) in the pecking order…he is dead to me. I didn’t believe Gallup would be heavily involved upon his return, as he’s been a ghost with the trio back to 2020 – but I was wrong, way wrong. Schultz has died since Gallup returned…something I also did not believe would happen.

 -- Antonio Gibson (10-36-0, 2-5-0/2) was crushed by the revamped/healthy Dallas D-Line, and then fumbled…which has been an issue. He got benched again. But when this game got back to being a game…he was back in. Blame this one on the Dallas D.

 -- With a week to get ready to deploy all necessary assets, Curtis Samuel (0-0-0/2) saw no catches and no carries. Message received. I’m done with him for 2021, and we’ll have to reevaluate him for 2022 in this weak offense.

Terry McLaurin (0-0-0/4) was busy putting up another dud then was out due to a concussion…and still not any extra Samuel to try and push their (supposed) best offensive weapons.

 -- Ricky Seals-Jones (1-8-0/4) and John Bates (1-19-0/2) were nobodies here -- but blame Dallas some…WSH needed extra blocking from the TEs.

Week 15, they face the TE utopia of the Eagles defense. RSJ might matter Week 15…maybe.

 -- The Dallas-DST is smoking hot right now. I’ve been saying for a few weeks that Dallas could be an overall monster (as a team) when they get all their D-Lineman back healthy. Well, Week 14 was really the first time the main guys played together…

Randy Gregory (1 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT, 2 QB hits)

Neville Gallimore (2 tackles, 1 sack, 1 QB hit)

DeMarcus Lawrence (2 tackles, 1 sack, 2 QB hits)

Micah Parsons (3 tackles, 2.0 sacks, 2 QB hits)

9 QB hits for Dallas D…5.0 sacks, 3 forced fumbles, 1 pick.

Guess what’s gonna happen when they face the Giants Week 15?

Snap Counts of Interest:

48 = Bates

31 = RSJ

42 = Humphries

40 = D Carter

40 = Sims

33 = McLaurin

23 = Dyami

14 = CSam

75 = Amari

70 = Gallup

57 = CeeDee

54 = Elliott

31= Clement

02 = J Hardy

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**College Football Metrics 2022…new season signups coming in January 2022**

The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!

The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…

Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.

R.C. Fischer

Total Football Advisor

13 December 2021

A look back at the Chargers 2021 season via RC's weekly game recaps/analysis with 2022 notes/comments added to this review...

Ross Jacobs

FFM

11 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 13: Colts 31, Texans 0

Not a whole lot to say about this one. It was a straightforward beatdown by the Colts. Not sure why you would expect anything else from the Texans at this point. They aren't a remotely good team.

I do have to give Houston some credit though. Despite the season going down the toilet from the very beginning, I haven't seen the Texans quit yet. They are still out there giving their best every week, especially the defense. Those guys really bottled up Jonathan Taylor quite well for most of the game.

Houston has a chance to maybe grab one more win against the Jaguars, but ideally you'd like to lose it to get as high a draft pick as possible. The loser probably gets the 2nd pick in the draft and the winner should get the 3rd. Not a massive difference either way.

Indy finally climbs to a winning record at 7-6 and they are one of the hottest teams in football right now. You definitely don't want to face them in the playoffs, but they might not even make it after their poor start to the season. The next two games will likely decide it for them as they get the Patriots at home this week and then go to Arizona next week. Win both of those and they very likely come from behind to win the AFC South. Even just 1 win out of those two might be enough if Tennessee stumbles at the end of their schedule, but the Titans beat the Colts twice this season and therefore win the tiebreak. They probably need to get to 10 wins to have a chance.

I'll guess Indy finishes 10-7 but 9-8 isn't out of the question either. Assuming Tennessee holds on for the division title, the Colts will be in the mix along with the Chargers, Bengals/Ravens, and Bills for the three wildcard spots. Their win over the Bills could come in very handy in tiebreaks. My guess right now would be that they will make it in as the 7th seed at 10 wins, the Chargers and Bills get the final two wildcard spots at 11 wins each, and the Bengals win the North with 10 wins after Baltimore collapses down the stretch to miss the playoffs entirely.

Fantasy Notes

--The Texans announced this week that Davis Mills (6-14 for 49 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) would finish up the season as the starter over Tyrod Taylor. It's the right call. Taylor never should have gotten his job back in the first place. Mills isn't great, but he's young and has some tools you can develop. Let him get some experience, take a few more lumps, then reevaluate in the off-season to see if you want to move forward with him or draft a QB.

You can't play Mills in redraft right now. The team around him is simply too poor. He might be ok in the future if they can build the team up, but that's at least 2-3 years away. More than likely though Houston will be drafting a QB with their first pick. Mills hasn't been nearly as bad as we thought he would be, but he's still not on the dynasty radar.

--I guess Rex Burkhead (8-30-0, 1-15-0/2) is the starter for the Texans at RB now...for what that's worth. If you're absolutely desperate for RB points maybe you could start him against the Jaguars.

--Pharaoh Brown (4-23-0/5) brought in 4 passes here and has apparently ascended to the starting job at TE. He's the best they've got at the position, but that isn't saying a whole lot. He's not usable in redraft and will quickly be replaced by Brevin Jordan in dynasty.

--Ashton Dulin (1-2-1/1) got a TD here. Yay for him I guess. He's WR4 for Indy right now and has Mike Strachan looming. Not a bad player, you can't tell much of a difference between him and Zach Pascal for example, but he's not a player I'll ever be interested in for fantasy.

--One mildly interesting deep sleeper here is Colts rookie RB Deon Jackson (6-19-1). Jackson got a little mop up duty at the end of this game and looked like a fairly generic power back, not bad by any means but nothing special either. He kind of reminds me of another former Colt, Jordan Wilkins.

Jackson spent 4 years with Duke where he never really broke out. His production didn't stand out nor did his pro day, and thus he went undrafted. He does have good size at nearly 220 lbs to go along with probably 4.6 speed (he allegedly got a 4.42 at his pro day but it didn't look like it here), a 36” vertical jump, and an average 7.14 3-cone.

If Jackson was ever handed main carry duties for a couple games he'd probably do just fine especially behind this great Colts offensive line. I don't see a hidden star though, and he won't be seeing the field much behind Taylor.

IDP Notes

--My god Kamu Grugier-Hill (20 tackles, 1 sack, 3 tfl) went absolutely nuts here. He's been putting up decent stats all year, but this was insane. If you had him started at LB for whatever reason, congratulations! This wasn't some kind of coming out party or anything though. He's a decent player, but this was just a result of Taylor taking a million carries straight up the gut and Grugier-Hill being the only viable LB after Zach Cunningham was surprisingly inactive and then cut shortly after the game.

Speaking of Cunningham, he was cut for disciplinary reasons including a mandatory COVID test that he was late for. Houston decided to not play him as a healthy scratch and then obviously cut him. They had apparently had enough of his attitude, and it sounds like he was tired of the situation in Houston which is understandable. It's an unfortunate end for the NFL's leading tackler in 2020. The Titans picked him up off waivers due to his connection with Mike Vrabel, but it'll be a few weeks before he sees any playing time if at all.

--Kemoko Turay nabbed 2 more sacks here to give him 5 on the season. It's a good start to his young career, but I honestly don't see anything to get excited about. These were both hustle sacks, nothing he did to beat the offensive line (which is damning because this line is terrible).

Snap Counts of Interest

54 = Michael Pittman

54 = Zach Pascal

32 = TY Hilton

22 = Ashton Dulin

42 = Jack Doyle

31 = Mo Alie-Cox

43 = Brandin Cooks

31 = Nico Collins

30 = Chris Conley

32 = Pharaoh Brown

22 = Brevin Jordan

24 = Rex Burkhead

22 = Royce Freeman

R.C. Fischer

FFM

11 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 13: Seahawks 30, 49ers 23

This game was somewhat back-and-forth, sometimes sloppy, sometimes hard-nosed. Either team could have won. The 49ers had four end zone shots/goal-to-go types at the end of the game and couldn’t score to tie/win. Seattle had a score off a 73-yard fake punt TD run to get this party started. It was a fun game to watch. It was evenly played…hard hitting and sloppy, mostly. Seattle won, and they deserved to – they had more energy in the end.

Seattle (4-8) wins a huge game to keep their season alive by the dimmest of hopes and having now two wins over SF may come back to help them in the wild card if they can ever get to it…they need to win out. Three of Seattle’s next 4 games are with HOU-CHI-DET…three great opportunities to win, which would book 7 wins. Week 15 they are at LAR…and that will be for the Seattle season, as every game is right now – Seattle needs to run the table to get to (9-7) and try and sneak into the wild card. The schedule can help them get there; they just have to do their part…no room for error. It’s a tall order, so they will likely finish with 7-8 wins in the end.

The overrated 49ers fall to (6-6) and have a more choppy schedule ahead. They have ATL and HOU ahead, so 8 wins is almost in the bag. They would need one more win to get to 9 wins and thus in the wild card discussion…one win out of the other three games being at CIN, at TEN, at LAR…three tough road games. Not going to be easy. We project they will slip into the 9-win group and have a wild card shot with wins over wild card contenders LAR, PHI, MIN already.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Best game I’ve seen Rashaad Penny (10-35-0, 1-27-0/1) have in a long time.

Rashaad Penny facts:

1) He’s a more talented, better version of Elijah Mitchell.

2) He’s more talented than Mitchell, but his O-Line is a disaster by comparison.

3) Penny has to contend with Adrian Peterson for goal line work, and with Travis Homer for PPR work.

4) Penny did some amazing pass protection in this game…which always endears head coaches.

5) Penny is always hurt, just when you think it’s ‘his time’…he falls down.

Well, for Week 14, the pendulum of ‘good luck’ has swung hard Penny’s way – AP is out…Homer is out. And no matter how bad the O-Line is, they are facing the Houston Texans…the run defense so bad it sunk below the awful Chargers to #32 in yards per game allowed (144.2) and is #31 in rush TDs allowed (20).

It’s a perfect set up for Penny this week. God, help him stay healthy. This is his chance to shine for his pending free agency. Alex Collins should be cleared but I think this will be Pete Carroll rewarding, riding, trying to get momentum going with Penny Week 14.

 -- I thought Russell Wilson (30-37 for 231 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT) started to look more like his normal self here…some of that on a shaky SF pass defense.

Wilson starting to heat up + rookie WR Dee Eskridge (3-35-1/30 starting to show a spark…Metcalf-Lockett-Eskridge can be pretty salty if Eskridge can keep getting his sea legs in the NFL. He was hurt/out early and just now starting to get comfortable.

 -- Gerald Everett (4-7-0/6) cost Seattle winning this game by 2-3 scores. He had a pass right to his wide-open hands near the goal line, but as he went to turn up field for the easy score, he forgot to secure the catch…so, he bobbled the ball in his hands 2-3x and the last attempt to re-grab it, the ball right up to a defender 2-3 yards behind him – an easy TD turned no TD and a turnover.

Late in the game with Seattle trying to put SF away, a TE shuttle-pass up the middle near the goal line…Everett caught it and headed for the score and was hit/fumbled and turnover on the 1-yard line.

In another universe, this is a 2-TD game for Everett and everyone chasing him off waivers for Week 14. Not to be…

I have some FF-faith in the efforts they are making to get Everett the ball the past few weeks…he’s a TE1 threat for me every week.

 -- Elijah Mitchell (22-66-1, 3-18-0/3) was bottled up by a very good-looking Seattle run defense. He also got hurt in this game and is going to miss Week 14. Speaking of how Penny is like Mitchell…we know Penny is hurt all the time, well…Mitchell seems to be hurt/out about every 2-3 games, no? Three separate injuries causing him to miss games this season now.

I believe Jeff Wilson will be the lead dog Week 14, with pass game support from JaMycal Hasty. Wilson practiced in full THU and FRI, so I’d bet strong on him for FF to be like Mitchell's output.

 -- Wilson’s FF upside will be hurt if Deebo Samuel (DNP), the team’s #1 RB and part-time #1 WR, returns to action. Deebo is 50-50. I don’t know if he’ll be active, or if he’d take a normal workload if he is. I’d bet Deebo inactive one more week, but that’s just a hunch on my part. It’s going to be a big deal trying to figure out whether to trust him or not this week if he is active but on a ‘pitch count’.

Snap Counts of Interest:

62 = DKM

59 = Lockett

32 = Swaim

22 = Eskridge

29 = Penny

21 = Homer

18 = AP

02 = DeeJay Dallas

49 = Mitchell

02 = Wilson

01 = Hasty

57 = Sherfield

54 = Aiyuk

29 = J Jennings

Ross Jacobs

FFM

10 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 13: Patriots 14, Bills 10

This game was without a doubt the most entertaining, interesting, and at the same time infuriating game I've ever watched.

What's that phrase RC and I always use? Belichick isn't a genius, he's just the smartest guy in a room full of idiots. Indeed.

So this game was played in some of the worst weather I've ever seen. 30 mph winds were whipping the ball all over the place. The kickers were missing 30 yard kicks in warmups. It was clear what the strategy would be. Run game and good defense, Belichick's specialty.

So the Patriots began pounding the run. Over and over and over and over. At one point they had called something like 30 straight running plays...and yet the Bills didn't adjust until very late in the game. It was bizarre to watch Sean McDermott, one of the smartest coaches in the league, consistently leave 2-3 guys playing off the line of scrimmage as if the Patriots were going to pass the ball. There was no way Mac Jones was going to be throwing the ball downfield with his popcorn arm, and yet the Bills would not stack the line and thus the Patriots averaged nearly 5 yards per carry for the game despite everyone knowing they were running every play.

And what was McDermott's plan of attack on offense? He tried to replicate what the Patriots were doing, but instead of a great offensive line and Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson as his RB's, McDermott tried to power run behind a terrible offensive line, Devin Singletary and slow ass Zach Moss.

Great plan Sean. You deserved to lose. You deserve to be in 2nd place in the AFC East behind the Patriots. You deserve all the losses in big games you've ever had to the Chiefs. You deserve all this because whenever you face actually good teams you crumble under pressure. You get complacent and conservative. You don't play to your team's strengths.

You know what they should have done? They should have run Josh Allen into the ground. They should have called power runs for Allen, option runs for Allen, rolled him out, moved the pocket, anything to get him on the move and let him use that cannon arm to cut through the wind on simple route concepts. They should have stacked the line on defense with every player they had and told their guys to shoot every open gap.

This game was winnable for the Bills. It should have been won. They are the more talented team. But they failed, again, because the coach didn't have a plan for an obvious bad weather game. He didn't have a plan for the obvious plan that Belichick was going to run. He didn't adjust when it became painfully obvious to every soul watching that game that the Patriots were laughing themselves silly watching their RB's run straight at the Bills time and time again.

Belichick isn't a genius. He's just the smartest guy in a room full of idiots. And now he's going to win the AFC East and grab the #1 seed in the entire AFC with a weak-armed, rookie QB that nobody else wanted and a bunch of B and C grade free agents. Congratulations NFL. You guys never cease to amaze me with how horribly you run your franchises. Hope you're ready to be Belichick's b***h for another 20 seasons.

The Patriots are up to 9-4 and have the inside track to the top seed, but they do have 3 potentially tough games remaining against the Colts, the Dolphins, and the Bills again. There is a lot that can happen, but I'll guess they finish out 2-2 for an 11-6 overall record (covering my over bet that I caught so much crap from RC and Xavier for...) which might be good enough but might be a 2 or 3 seed. Either way they are going to the playoffs and you really don't want to play them as usual.

Are they good enough to win a Superbowl? Yes. Are they the favorites? Unlikely. This team is a carbon copy of their early 2000's teams that won 3 championships, so obviously anything is possible.

The Bills fall to 7-5, but their remaining schedule is much easier than the Patriots. There is still room for them to snatch the division away, but they absolutely have to beat the Patriots in the rematch game. They also have to win their 3 cupcake games against the Panthers, Falcons, and Jets. They can afford to drop the game against the Bucs this week, but getting a win there would give them more breathing room obviously. I think they have a great chance to go 4-1 or 5-0 to finish the season and take the division on tiebreaks, but it's going to be close.

Fantasy Notes

--What do you want me to say about this one? Mac Jones literally just won a game while throwing 3 passes for 19 yards.

Josh Allen only completed half his passes for 145 yards.

The Patriots ran the ball 46 times for 222 yards.

Nothing about this game was typical or likely to be replicated.

--The most significant thing to happen was Damien Harris getting hurt. He's dealing with a hamstring injury, but we're still waiting on an update for that. Hammies are notoriously finicky though, so I'm going to guess he'll be out for at least a week to rest.

If so, Rhamondre Stevenson is a must start against the Colts. Honestly, he's been the more impressive back of the two for several weeks now. Whatever questions he had before the draft about his athleticism have been answered. The man looks like a sleeker version of LeGarrette Blount, a powerful, bruising runner but with surprising agility for his size. He also has very good hands for such a big man. If I were re-ranking all the rookie backs, Stevenson would be 2nd only to Javonte.

--If Harris is out Stevenson takes over primary duties, but don't overlook Brandon Bolden possibly getting 5-8 carries and 3-4-5 catches too.

--The spontaneous decision to essentially bench Matt Breida cost me a win this week...I'm not bitter. I'm not really sure what happened with that as Breida looked like he had earned a larger role in the offense the prior two weeks. Perhaps it was just a function of the Bills trying to lean on the power run game...I honestly don't know. I do know you can't trust Breida now.

Situations like this are why I typically try to just avoid messy, hot-hand, or rotational RBBC situations. Sometimes you guess correctly for a week or two, but too often you just get burned. Better to find guys that are the sole back in their offense no questions asked.

Snap Counts of Interest

28 = Devin Singletary

24 = Zach Moss

7 = Matt Breida

55 = Stefon Diggs

46 = Emmanuel Sanders

40 = Cole Beasley

R.C. Fischer

FFM

10 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 13: Dolphins 20, Giants 9

This game was only 10-6 Miami after three quarters, but the Giants inability to create any offense to support their very good defense stayed true all game and finally smothered them out in the end. Both teams played their game…plodding offenses and good defense, but Miami’s offense is actually sparking right now so they took the game.

Miami has won five in a row and are pressuring my in the bag ‘under’ 9 wins bet on them from the preseason. The Dolphins are (6-7), but likely to finish (8-9), but it’s not a done deal yet. Miami is hot right now, but they are beating a bunch of garbage offenses/teams right now.

The Giants lose another winnable game to fall to (4-8). Too many injuries. Too crappy a QB play. They have no identity or spark on offense. NYG might get to 5-6 wins unless they want to quasi tank and stick with 4 wins. They own the Bears pick, so two top 10 draft picks coming for NYG next year….they can send them to Seattle for Russell Wilson.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Tua Tagovailoa (30-41 for 244 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT)…Tua is now 84-of-105 (81.0%) passing in his last 3 games. He’s on fire. The BTO (Baby Throw Offense) is working at a high level and defenses have no answer.

Nothing different happened in this game than their last several during this win streak…everything to Jaylen Waddle (9-90-0/11) and competent everything else.

DeVante Parker (5-62-0/5) returned to action. He doesn’t look special, just Tua is dealing, and Parker is a good option. Waddle still rules all the primary targets.

 -- Mike Gesicki (7-46-0/11) had a bigger game here, for targets…sometimes he is virtually unstoppable but he’s not getting the TD shots he used to. And his target counts have been erratic the last month or so. He’s still a TE1 threat every week, but no TDs is holding him back from TE1 scoring usually.

 -- I thought Mike Glennon (23-44 for 187 yards, 0 TDs/1 INT) looked fine enough. He just suffered a bunch of drops, and he’s so slow afoot that any time pressure leaked through Glennon can’t slide away from it…he moves like a piano being pushed uphill but isn’t even on wheels. Despite that, with some time to set up in the pocket, Glennon was OK…his weapons are disinterested letdowns.

Glennon suffered a concussion, despite finishing the game. If he can’t go Week 14, recently grabbed off Buffalo’s Practice Squad QB Jake Fromm will be forced to start (assuming Dan Dimes is out again)…and if Fromm happens, then everything related is in trouble for NYG.

 -- I thought the receiver Glennon had the most connection with was Evan Engram (4-61-0/5)…and EE looked the best he has all year here. If Glennon is back for the LAC game Week 14, I think Engram could be a possible TE1 threat. With Jake Fromm…it’s trouble.

Kenny Golladay (3-37-0/5) had an encouraging start to this game but then fizzled out and got nicked up again.

I wish Kadarius Toney could get back in for some life to this offense, but he’s likely out again Week 14. Week 15 he might be back.

 -- The most exciting thing about this game was the young IDPs emerging…

MIAMI

Andrew Van Ginkel (5 tackles, 1 TFL) and Jaelen Phillips (5 tackles, 2 sacks) are on fire. Since Week 8, the two have combined for 29 QB hits. The New York Giants have 50 QB hits on the entire season.

Miami-DST v. NYJ Week 15 should be good, but Zach Wilson is starting to perk up. Week 16 at NO might be OK, depending upon Taysom’s hand. I don’t know if it is more schedule driven or not (my lean is that it is schedule), but the Miami-DST is definitely a hot play the past several weeks.

NY GIANTS

Quincy Roche (6 tackles, 1 sack) keeps making plays and standing out with pressure – he was cut by the Steelers in the preseason, another genius move by PIT.

Rookie pass rusher Azeez Ojulari (4 tackles, 1 sack) got his 6.5 sack on the season.

But the best thing for NYG, my guy, rookie CB Aaron Robinson (7 tackles, 1 PD) is recovered from injury, finally with the team and playing great football. He’s one of the best instinctual cover corner I’ve scouted, and he’s been an instant success in the pros in just a few weeks of play.

The future for the NYG-DST is bright if they can get any offense to help them.

Snap Counts of Interest:

44 = Gaskin

22 = Ahmed

02 = Laird

49 = Barkley

23 = Booker

52 = Slayton

38 = Golladay

27 = Ph Cooper

21 = J Ross

18 = Collin Johnson

R.C. Fischer

FFM

10 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 13: Eagles 33, Jets 18

Most interesting, most RC-note-worthy game of the week. I expected it to be, because I wanted to rewatch my boys Zach Wilson and Gardner Minshew, who looked like they played a good+ game here on the live watch…but I wanted to savor it/study it on the rewatch. I did, but there was so much more to drink in and ruminate on.

As far as the game itself…it’s a quick analysis.

The Jets got out of the gates quickly. The Eagles matched their spark. Eventually the tide turned, and the Eagles just started running the ball about every play and keeping it away from the Jets in the 2nd-to-3rd-quarter and forced the Jets into desperate passing mode in the 4th-quarter while Philly just pounded/grinded it away on the ground to walk out with a nice win. The Jets gave them a-go for a quarter and half, but then Philly took control…impressive performance in a game that will be dismissed because ‘Jets’.

The Jets fall to (3-9). They still have a shot at a #1 draft pick, but not likely. Week 16 v. JAX could be/will be key for draft positioning. I’m guessing the Jets will win that game and give themselves 4 wins on the season and maybe be a top 5 pick.

The Eagles have won three of their last 4 games to get to (6-7)…but we projected them with an (8-9) finish, and out of the playoffs likely -- but four division games remain and if they get hot they could get to 9 wins and have some wild card hopes.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Let’s start with the main reason why I was so excited to rewatch this game, after the live watch Sunday (along with all the other games at the same time, so I could only focus so much…), and that is Zach Wilson (23-38 for 226 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT).

I left Sunday’s watch thinking it was the best NFL game I’d seen him play…and it looked more like the Zach Wilson I scouted as the best QB in the 2021 NFL Draft. I left the rewatch/study KNOWING it was the best NFL game I’d seen him play, and DEFINITELY like the Wilson I scouted at BYU.

How can I describe Wilson best? He has a taller, less athletic Kyler Murray vibe to his play. A rocket launcher for an arm, but also can see things developing and can fire strikes right into tight windows. Rookie Kyler had struggles…one play you’d see genius, as a passer, then the next he’d make throws that made no sense. Three years later, Kyler is arguably the best passer in the NFL…he has experience, the best O-Line he’s had (still needs work), and weapons all around…4 legit WRs to work with and now a legit TE.

Wilson has those Kyler rookie year issues right now and then some…not NFL-experienced enough, a horrific O-Line, and no weapons around him (except one, which we’ll get to in a moment). Add those things up, and you’re gonna get 2 TDs/7 INTs in his first three games.

Week 12 we saw some flashes of ‘it’ from Wilson, but he took a huge step forward in Week 13/this game…Wilson starting to get comfortable on an NFL field. He’s finally using the dump-off to the RBs to his advantage (still more work needed by him, but he’s heading in the right direction), and that short game is setting up his sizzling downfield game.

If Wilson had been throwing (by my mind’s eye/memory) 60-70% of this passes poorly the first half of the season – throwing into coverage, forcing deep plays, misfiring open receivers…then this game he was 80/20 or better on the money with his throws. The only thing that kept him from a 300+ yard game is the lack of ability to catch by some of his receivers.

Zach Wilson is the better, more svelte Baker Mayfield…the less athletic (but not a bad runner/escaper at all), taller, one notch down vision version of Kyler Murray. This was a great step forward…and he might have another dud or two before season’s end, but he is progressing.

…and he is so clearly better than Trevor Lawrence that everyone in NFL scouting that thought otherwise should be fired for not seeing it. So, if that happened…it would be like me, and Ross and a handful of other people left in the profession.

Now, is the time to buy Zach Wilson in Dynasty…as a #2-3 QB for your future, available for a price lower than it should be. And it will still be a bargain in the offseason.

The pressure on Wilson’s FF performance ahead is not on him, but can the Jets attract real weapons…and can a guy playing in that stadium/climate really thrive for FF? Josh Allen does…and Wilson is a smaller, skinnier version of good Josh Allen. Wilson has a very underrated howitzer of an arm. But Allen has WAY better coaching. His future is murky in NY, so I don’t want to pay much to take a look…you shouldn’t have to.

 -- I love Gardner Minshew (20-25 for 242 yards, 2 TDs/0 INTs), but watching these two guys work…it was beyond clear that Wilson is far superior…long-term, and in this game.

That’s not a slam on Minshew…it’s a compliment to Wilson.

Minshew did a bad thing here…real bad. He won a game, looked efficient…looked like a traditional NFL QB – and has inadvertently created a QB controversy. The fans…Philly fans, especially, will scout franchise QBs based on ‘what happened last week’ with no context, just caveman…’win good, loss bad’ reactions.

Not only did Minshew win a game, but he showed a style more like a traditional QB, so now the next time Jalen Hurts loses/looks bad…everyone will call for a Minshew change and speak glowingly about the need for a traditional QB. With fans, Philly fans especially, whatever is the opposite of the bad thing that just happened is what they want that moment – football fans are like petulant children who are never disciplined. When their team has a stiff QB not winning every game, then they all talk about how the NFL is a moving towards the highly mobile QB and how their team needs to get one, and thus Liberty College’s Malik Willis is a top mock draft pick, despite that being idiotic on every level (Willis is not a top pick QB talent). When a fan’s team DOES get the highly mobile QB, and he doesn’t win every game, then all the ‘we need a next Brady type’ of talk dominates. You can never win with the fans, but that’s why they love the game – never-ending ‘shoulda’ talk.

And part of the stupidity of weekly changes in QB-need philosophies that are based on ‘feelings’ and ‘emotions’ from last week’s game is also the core of NFL team management. How else do you explain a team (Philly) built for traditional passer QB play being led by a purely mobile QB? Minshew playing well, even though it was against the Jets, has opened the door for an alternative…no different than Wentz v. Hurts 2020-21.

I think the Eagles will go with Hurts…UNTIL the media and fan pressure are too much. Hurts will have his Eagles (and probably entire) career ruined by the media and never-satisfied fans. Hurts won’t get benched this season, no matter how bad the pressure (unless Hurts is a disaster) – but who the QB will be Week 1 of 2022 will have a lot to do with how Hurts finishes 2021. Hurts has the locker room, but anything-not-Hurts has the media and fans backing. Drafting a QB is on the table as well.

Minshew did fine here. He wasn’t as good as Wilson, but he was good…and then handed off mostly the final half.

 -- Alright, I liked my scouting ahead on Wilson in Jan. 2021. I liked my Minshew scouting back in Jan. 2019 before his draft. Now, scouting I’m not pleased with…

I’m starting to think Elijah Moore (6-77-1/12) IS the better ‘rookie Moore WR’ from 2021…not Rondale. I’ve been boasting of this great Rondale Moore to be unleashed in the NFL, and it’s been…not that exciting, so far. Nothing unleashed quite yet. Elijah…I thought I saw some minor issues on tape that conflicted with his Pro Day elite speed/agility times, but I think those times are more real than not now…and I know he has great hands. He looks like this year’s best WR prospect to me right now.

I was going heavy Rondale all preseason, when I should’ve been going Elijah. I think that now, there’s still time for Rondale to take the lead (in my heart) back in 2022, when he’s a starter with Kyler. It’s not a slam of Rondale, just that Elijah is playing so well.

I’ve watched many established NFL WRs get gobbled up by Darius Slay this season. I just watched Elijah Moore (via Zach Wilson) go spank Slay several times in this game. If Wilson is going to start clicking, then Moore is going to keep rising. Wilson was a problem for Moore a few weeks ago, but now Wilson might be turning the corner. But I think teams are going to go double Elijah now in response, so we’ll see where the FF output heads to the rest of 2021.

Bottom line…Wilson is the best QB from this raft, and Elijah might be its best all-around WR. The Jets done good.

 -- Speaking of ‘top things’…we finally saw THAT Dallas Goedert (6-105-2/6)…the Goedert that can be the best TE in the NFL. He just needed Ertz gone and a non-run-first QB at the helm. This was the best I’ve seen Goedert look. Sadly, for him, he’ll have Hurts back Week 15 and Goedert goes back to being a random TE1 hopeful, not a top 3 TE…like he should be.

If the Eagles change QBs to something more traditional in 2022, then Goedert is a top 3 Fantasy TE in 2022.

 -- Minshew wore out Goedert, but not DeVonta Smith (2-15-0/4) or Jaelen Reagor (1-7-0/1). Minshew didn’t need to. The Goedert thing was money…and then they just ran the ball a ton and got out of there.

Smith looks fine, he just can’t get into any rhythm in this passing game of low targets, inaccurate but playmaking Hurts isn’t a pass game booster at all.

 -- Miles Sanders (24-124-0, 3-22-0/3) had a big day…but note that we had a switch to a traditional offense, and they were facing the Jets. Sanders is fine/OK, but he’s been bleh with Hurts at QB.

Boston Scott has been so good for weeks…so, of course, zero touches this week but was returning kicks. NFL teams stick with their pick at RB and will not change unless injury forces it.

 -- A running back who didn’t hold his starting role for long, Tevin Coleman (11-58-0, 3-19-0/4) has it back due to Michael Carter injury. TC looks solid/good and I don’t think Carter is coming back this week or maybe even next, so Coleman still has some legs here as at least getting 10+ touches a game.

BUT…Coleman has a concussion issue right now (as of this writing) – he may be out Week 14 and Ty Johnson/Austin Walter may take the reigns for a week. Against the Saints run defense, I want neither.

 -- Corey Davis (2-15-0/3) is done for the year with a core muscle injury. He was a bad idea as a #1 WR anyway.

Denzel Mims (1-4-0/1) is still buried.

Jamison Crowder (4-62-0/4) may have a little run coming up if Elijah Moore starts getting doubled.

Snap Counts of Interest:

28 = Ty Johnson

23 = Coleman

08 = Walter

68 = Goedert

28 = Stoll

27 = Tyree Jackson

41 = Sanders

27 = Gainwell

03 = B Scott

Ross Jacobs

FFM

09 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 13: Buccaneers 30, Falcons 17 

There really isn't much to say about these two teams at this point. They are two of the most consistent teams in the entire league. You know exactly what you're getting every week.

For Tampa, Tom Brady is going to stand in the pocket all day and pick you apart with whichever option is open on a given play. They are going to crush lesser teams and can battle with any of the better teams any given week. They have to be considered one of the Superbowl favorites, especially because of that consistency. Tampa doesn't seem to suffer through some of the ups and downs that, say, the Rams or Bills do. They have a simple game plan and they execute it thanks to the robotic precision of Brady.

It's honestly kind of the same thing in Atlanta, except the Falcons are incompetent instead of very good. They have the tools to field a good offense (Pitts and Patterson), but Matt Ryan is just pathetic to watch anymore. He's under pressure quite often, but even when he's not he just can't get the ball down the field anymore. The offense literally only scores points when Patterson does everything himself.

The Falcons only offensive TD here was their first drive of the game after, you guessed it, Cordarrelle Patterson broke a big run down the field. After that Arthur Smith moved away from using Patterson heavily because we can't have too much of a good thing, and the offense obviously faltered. Their only other TD would come right before halftime when Brady threw a screen pass while backed up near his own goalline and Marlon Davidson happened to be right in the path and snatched the ball for the easiest pick 6 ever.

That score made the game 20-17 at the half, but the result was never really in doubt as Tampa just sat back and let the Falcons bash their heads against a wall.

Tampa is now 9-3 and their destiny has been set in stone most of the year. There was never a real challenger for them in the NFC South. The schedule is pathetically easy after this last game against the Bills (and possibly the Saints). They are going to cruise to 12-14 wins and a high seed in the NFC. The only disaster scenario for the Bucs is if the Packers somehow snag the #1 overall seed because then Tom has to go away from home into the cold, his only real weakness. If Tampa or even Arizona gets the top seed then he can avoid the elements. Tampa is a machine and almost assuredly will at least make it to the NFC championship game.

The Falcons fall to 5-7 (somehow still 2nd place in the South) and have no real playoff chances no matter if the math says they can still make it. They have games remaining with the Bills, Saints, and 49'ers that should all be losses. They should get a win at home versus the Lions, and they have a tossup game this week at the Panthers. Most likely they finish with 6 or 7 wins (by some miracle) and are stuck in that middle ground between needing a complete rebuild and trying for a bottom tier playoff push in 2022.

My guess is they move on from Ryan this off-season and start the rebuild with a rookie QB sitting behind some new veteran. The only real foundational piece they have on offense is Pitts (Patterson is great but already 31), and the defense doesn't have much going for it either. There's no clear path for Atlanta to build this thing back up, and it looks to me like they'll be stuck in no man's land for the next 3-4 season minimum.

Fantasy Notes

--Unfortunately I have no real fantasy insights from this game. What you see is what you get. Brady is going to get Evans, Godwin, Gronk, and Fournette stats every week while running up his own stats.

--Breshad Perriman has already been elevated over Tyler Johnson for snaps, but it doesn't mean anything for fantasy. Tom peeked his way a couple of times, but there was no purposeful move to get Perriman the ball. He'll probably catch an errant bomb TD one of these days, but good luck guessing when. The 3rd WR spot doesn't matter unless/until Antonio Brown comes back.

--Speaking of Brown, I'm starting to think he might not come back, although there's still hope as the team hasn't already cut him which you'd think would be the logical move after the news broke about his fake vaccine card. What the team likely wants to do is hang onto him for the playoffs, let him get healthy for the playoff run, and then release him after the season is over. Either way I wouldn't expect him back until after the fantasy season is done.

It's a rough ending for what looked like a promising season early on. As an AB drafter myself, I feel everyone's pain.

*RC NOTE: Even if he does return Week 16…would you rush him right back into your lineups his first week back? If not, if in doubt…then we’re holding AB right now clogging up a roster spot for the hopes he’s amazing Week 17? 

--I'm done with Kyle Pitts for the moment. The talent is undeniable, but if he couldn't get numbers here it's just not going to happen. My issue for weeks was that teams were double teaming him, mostly in man coverage, but the Bucs just ran a soft zone all day and weren't even worried about Pitts and Ryan still couldn't find him wide open in the secondary.

As usual, Pitts looked like he was going to have a big day coming in the 2nd quarter, but then he was inexplicably ignored after that. It's a coaching and QB issue is all I can say. I'm moving on and I recommend everyone else do so if you haven't already. If you've got room on your bench maybe you can stash him and hope for a turn in the final weeks, but I see no reason to expect that at this point.

--I legitimately have no idea how Russell Gage (11-130-0/12) ended up with 11 catches for 130 yards. It did not remotely seem like he was doing that while watching live. About half of those catches were garbage time drives in the two-minute drives, but you'll take it. This was probably an abnormal spike, but as I've mentioned before, Gage is a very overlooked ppr option at WR right now due to how bad this offense is. I'd treat him as a WR 2-2.5 for now.

Snap Counts of Interest

67 = Kyle Pitts

54 = Tajae Sharpe

53 = Russell Gage

43 = Olamide Zaccheaus

65 = Mike Evans

64 = Chris Godwin

59 = Breshad Perriman

9 = Tyler Johnson

R.C. Fischer

FFM

09 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 13: Chargers 41, Bengals 22

Big win for the Chargers!

And I’m not impressed at all.

The Chargers raced out to a 24-0 lead, getting several breaks along the way and then Cincy watching one of their top defenders get carted off (Logan Wilson)…it was just NOT the Bengals’ day. It looked like it might be 50-0 Chargers by halftime.

And then the next thing you know the Bengals are mounting a comeback, cutting the game to 24-22 despite Burrow throwing the ball with 4 good fingers and 1 bad one. It was an embarrassing display by LAC…one of the worst performing teams in the NFL, considering all their talent. They let an injured, bewildered Cincy team waltz right back in this game that they had them down by 24-zip in.

As the Bengals were about to take the lead, in the 3rd-quarter (potentially), there was an Mixon fumble that went right to a speeding LAC defender who grabbed and kept running and that kinda broke the momentum. LAC scored another TD soon after to put it out of reach. The Bengals kept fighting…they just dug themselves so many holes, and Burrow wasn’t 100%.

If they played this game again with a healthy Burrow…I’d take Cincinnati without hesitation. The Bengals are a better executing, tougher team than the Chargers. The Chargers have more talent, the Bengals have more grit and heart.

The Chargers get a win to jump to (7-5). Facing NYG this week and HOU Week 16…LAC should have 9 wins in the bag. They just need one win vs. KC-LV-DEN to get to 10 wins and a wild card. They should do that. Week 15 they face KC in a game where the winner has control of the division…the game at LA on TNF. That’s going to be a great watch…I’m not sure which sadder, underperforming team will win – LAC or KC. I hope LAC, but I assume KC.

This loss hurt Cincy, now (7-5)…with a win they could’ve taken over 1st-place in the AFC North. No easy games ahead for Cincy, and now Burrow with a sore hand…if the Bengals can slip by SF this week, I think they can take the AFC North at 9 wins, possibly getting to 10 wins to lock it up. But Baltimore still looms large at 8 wins…but the Ravens could seriously lose out with their schedule.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- I’m worried about Joe Burrow’s (24-40 for 300 yards, 1 TD/2 INTs) hand for Week 14. Hell, I’m not sure he’s even going to be able to play Week 14.

I will say this – Burrow is one tough son of a bitch. He took his battered hand out there series after series and gave it all he had. He tried taping his fingers, and just ripped it off and threw it away. Ditto trying a glove. He just went out and took hit after hit and dove headfirst into tacklers on running plays, etc., trying to will this team to victory. 11 QB hits. 6 sacks. Shaking his hand off to try and shake away the pain in-between plays most of the 2nd-half. It was a tough day at the office for Burrow.

And he almost pulled off the win too.

Burrow was not able to put all the mustard on the ball he could but then he just switched gears to throwing softer with anticipation of where the receiver would be versus firing rockets. One of the low key most impressive QB performances of 2021.

I know Justin Herbert (26-35 for 317 yards, 3 TDs/1 INT) is bigger physically, with a bigger arm, and plays in super cool LA and in a dome…he’s fantastic and the better Fantasy asset, but he ain’t a better QB/football player than Joe Burrow.

Burrow probably should take a week off, but I suspect we’ll see Burrow out there Week 14 because he’s a gamer.

If Brandon Allen does play instead of Burrow, just know he isn’t a bad QB at all. There’s a drop off but it’s not like a Jake Fromm, etc., nightmare. Allen is very capable.

 -- Everything about this game could be summed up on a play early in this game…

The Bengals down a couple scores and a bit shell shocked right away, and then Burrow unleashed a bomb on the money, in stride to Ja’Marr Chase (5-52-0/8) with him having a 2-yard lead on the CB to catch it in stride and race for the score. Chase clutched it, tried accelerating too soon, bobbled the ball out of his clutches…bobbled it right to the cornerback like he was soft tossing it to him – a 50+ yard TD strike turned interception. That’s the kind of day it was for the Bengals.

I’m telling you the Bengals were the better team here. Don’t get down on Cincy and don’t think LAC is ‘fixed’ from this game.

 -- Tee Higgins (9-138-/14) is becoming Burrow’s go-to, because Joey B. is not dumb. He knows who can catch the ball.

Last two games for Higgins: 7.5 rec. (11.0 targets), 126.0 yards, 1.0 TDs per game.

 -- Justin Herbert may be without his top two WRs Week 14, due to COVID. Who will he turn to in a worst-case scenario (both out)?

Jalen Guyton (4-90-1/4) has been the #3 WR all season, so he has the time/relationship…and he had a nice FF game here – but it was bolstered by a jump ball, 50/50 heave by Herbert…to Guyton for some reason, who actually got position on the DB, and the CB mistimed the incoming pass, and Guyton wound up with it in his hands already in the end zone for a 44-yard score. That type of thing isn’t normal for Guyton.

Josh Palmer (0-0-0/1) is CLEARLY the better WR but he’s a mostly ignored #4 WR. However, they can’t ignore him if Allen-Williams are gone. I like Palmer to emerge with the better FF game, if the nightmare scenario happens…but that’s a gamble not a guarantee.

The reality is, it would probably mean more catches spread to the TEs and Guyton may get another homerun ball TD, but Palmer leads in catches with no TDs. It’s a gamble on what really will happen, there’s no precedent for it.

Side note: Mike Williams (5-110-0/7) continues to be the most physically dominant WR of 2021. How his numbers are not double what they are is an indictment of this fledgling O-C.

 -- Justin Jackson (6-15-0) got a lot of touches for a #2 RB…he’s today’s ‘handcuff’ for Ekeler. We’ll see who it is tomorrow. The fact that LAC isn’t scouring for veteran RBs or poaching them off practice sqauds, so that they don’t burn out Ekeler…it just shows the negligence the team is being run with.

If they are done with Josh Kelley, and Rountree/Bradwell are nothing, and JJax is always hurt…then they could go to the Saints and pluck Josh Adams away. They could go to the Panthers and snatch Reggie Bonnafon, to name a few…do something…anything but stick with the fledgling lot they’ve been rotating all season. Do they want to win the AFC West or not? What if Ekeler goes down?

LAC is going to blow a golden opportunity to win the West because of bad management blowing this very good roster.

 -- The Bengals lost Logan Wilson for the season in this game, a huge blow…the linebacker leader. Germaine Pratt (9 tackles) is probably the ‘winner’ for more snaps/playing time in his stead. Joe Bachie 9 tackles) might kinda come out of nowhere to play a lot more snaps.

 -- I like the LAC-DST schedule ahead, but is this a good defense to try and rely on?

This defense is…

#7 best in pass yards per game allowed

#6t in passing TDs allowed

#17 in sacks

#6 in QB pressures

Their problem is…

#31 in rushing yards per game allowed

#28 in rush ypc allowed

#30 in rushing TDs allowed

#31 (worst) in missed tackles

Hard to pass on/good pass defense metrics, somewhat due to teams bypassing the air and just attacking them via the ground. But they’re much improved against the run the past 4 weeks as guys get healthy, and they make changes.

You know what their biggest issue is? They have not faced a team with a current losing record this season. The Giants (4-8) Week 14 will be their easiest matchup of 2021…14 weeks into the season. It’s like some of your FF teams that scored high but constantly played the week’s top scoring teams and you wound up scrambling to get into the playoffs, or out of the playoffs…all due to schedule. Schedule has a lot to do with all the metrics and analysis in football, but it’s rarely broached…instead, all data is lumped in the same/equal weight by opponent most often.

LAC-DST gets NYG Week 14, HOU Week 16, and DEN Week 17…those are all good matchups…especially if Jake Fromm and Davis Mills Weeks 14 and 16. That’s why I’m pushing this defense…gambling blind a bit – we don’t know how they’ll do with easier matchups.

LAC-DST held down WSH Week 1. Did fairly well vs. DEN Week 12. Just 14pts allowed to LV Week 4. Gave up 37 points to PIT on SNF Week 11 but allowed just 300 total yards in a fluke fest for PIT scoring.

I believe there is DST hope here with LAC, but I will be holding my breath like the rest of us watching them in my starting lineup.

Snap Counts of Interest:

73 = Chase

60 = Tee H

57 = Boyd

56 = Big Mike

53 = Keenan

34 = Guyton

22 = J Palmer

35 = J Cook

22 = Stv Anderson

16 = Parham

16 = McKitty

47 = Ekeler

16 = JJax

02 = Kelley