2022 Week 12: Browns 23, Bucs 17 OT (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
I don’t know when the collective football universe will come to the realization that the Buccaneers are one of the ten worst teams in the league now, and Tom Brady can no longer produce miracles with this group to save them most weeks. But, as an amateur football handicapper (and my 2022 run says I should go ‘pro’), I am glad the public is clinging to visions of 3 years ago…13 years ago ‘Brady’.
Tampa Bay has been hit with mass O-Line injury and are coached poorly…and it’s just Brady trying to throw on every other play to somehow outscore their opponents. Tampa was already on the edge of destruction with their O-Line, but losing Tristan Wirfs for a while, in this game, is death blow. This is a bad Bucs team that is right in the mud with the likes of the Saints and Panthers and Falcons, but we don’t want to believe it about anything Brady.
This game was back and forth right down to regulation and into OT. Tampa had a ton of chances to put this game away, but this TB offense is so out of sync and so battered on the O-Line they can’t move the ball at will…or even consistently. Everything is a grind, even the simplest of plays.
The Browns were/are a better team today, and then they went on and won this game. The Browns are (4-7) but their schedule has forced them into this situation. If they were in the NFC South, they’d have a winning record and win this division with ease. If the Browns beat Houston Week 13, they’ll be (5-7) and if Deshaun Watson is playing like nothing happened the past two years…then they could try and make a run at a .500+ record and some wild card hope in the end. Likely they end up (7-10).
Tampa Bay is now (5-6)…a half-game lead on the division…a loss this week away from losing the lead and headed towards a game out of last place in the sad NFC South division. I think they will lose to the Saints on MNF Week 13 and then will lose their next two (at SF, CIN) and they’ll fall to (5-9) but still be in the division race. We project them to (8-9) and that might be good enough to win the division.
*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a ‘split’ stat on our definition of a ‘quality start’ (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 for a QB…point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.
A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the mark, and 2 times they did not.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Rachaad White (14-64-0, 9-43-0/9) paid off in PPR, and was not bad in non-PPR either. A dazzling 9 catches on 9 targets, and as you already knew...he's a god of pass catching, so you’re not surprised.
But White is going to have to make FF hay by catching a ton of passes because TB cannot run the ball well at all. White got a wide open hole (Wirfs’ side) very early in the game and booked a sweet 35-yard run. He had 13 carries for 29 yards (2.2 ypc) outside of that run…not good, but that’s the trend with the TB run game pretty much all year -- except White has been working the run game better than Fournette, making yards where there are none once White became a starter. With Wirfs gone…the outlook is even worse on the ground.
But White showing his fantastical receiving skills to Brady this game…it might be a needed/desired thing with no blocking left for Brady to throw medium/deep. Brady may now be fully onboard after White’s masterclass in basic RB receiving Week 12.
The two worst things that could happen around White right now…are happening…
1) Tristan Wirfs goes down…and that happened.
2) Leonard Fournette returns healthy…and that could happen this week. Tampa Bay will not sit Len for White, no matter if it is the right thing to do. They’ll work a split together, until it is beyond clear Rachaad is their only hope…but that might be weeks from now.
I just hope Fournette stays away with his injury (as a heavy White owner) to make the picture clearer.
For the future…White is going to be an RB1 in PPR, and a redraft 1st-round pick next year. He is the better Le’Veon Bell.
-- Tom Brady (29-43 for 246 yards, 2 TDs/0 INTs) was already struggling to get the pass game going this season, but now the loss of Tristan Wirfs is another level of issue for Brady and the passing game.
Brady is going to have to throw short and quick…thus Chris Godwin (12-110-1/13) and Rachaad White (9-43-0/9) combined for 21 catches on 22 targets. The rest of the team had 8 catches on 21 targets combined…and that’s terrible.
Mike Evans (2-31-0/9) looks bad and frustrated. It’s not Brady’s fault rookie CB M.J. Emerson (4 tackles, 4 PDs) ate Evans alive in coverage -- that’s where we are at with Evans, good coverage is killing him in 2022.
Evans hasn’t caught a TD pass in 7 games.
Evans has caught 27 of his last 52 targets…a terrible 51.9% catch rate.
Evans is a (4/6) this season…(0/3) his last 3 games.
Evans was held to a (3-61-0/4) output and kicked out of their Week 2 game vs. the Saints, because Marshon Lattimore now owns Evans. And Lattimore might be clear for Week 13 to matchup with Evans.
-- David Njoku (5-29-1/7) saved his FF day with a late game, game tying, brilliant, reaching one-handed catch in the back of the end zone TD grab. Otherwise, this was a kinda quiet game for Njoku -- but his late game save and OT put him over the top.
All you can do is keep betting on him. He played 81% of the snaps here, and 7 targets in a game is his norm.
Njoku is a (4/5) this season, but a (3/2) his last 5 games. He works more quality games than not now…but we don’t know how he’ll work with Deshaun, but there’s more reason to bet on him than against.
-- Donovan Peoples-Jones (2-16-0/4) had his recent quality game run halted here. Nothing special happened to him, in fact he caught his two passes on the very first series for the Browns and looked to be on his way to a wonderful game…but it just stopped. No rhyme or reason that I could detect.
-- The Browns-DST is starting to come around a little bit. They have had a terrible schedule since Week 5, and they’ve dealt with several injuries to key secondary guys. If they ever get Ward-Newsome-Emerson all playing corner in a game at the same time…they might be one of the tougher teams to throw on in the league.
Their Week 13 game at Houston…it might be a DST gem.
-- Finally, a thought about next week for the Browns…more specifically, the Deshaun Watson debut.
Again, I’ll say…I have no idea how Deshaun will do.
No idea who his favorite target will be. I assume Amari, why wouldn’t it be?
No idea if he’ll use Njoku like Brissett. But why wouldn’t he?
Most importantly, I have no idea if he’s going to totally crap the bed here or not. I mean…the guy played a blink in preseason game one before being suspended away -- and he was 1-for-5 passing for 7 yards in his preseason debut, and his early throws he looked jumpy/nervous, which is understandable with a chorus of boos raining down for his first play time in over a year.
Could be a slow start Week 13 and then he settles in…or a slow start and then he spirals. It might take him a game or two to get himself back in a groove -- but most Amari, DPJ, Njoku owners don’t have that kind of FF-time. My bet is Cleveland hands off and quick/short passes the first series or two to get him past the boos and the nerves, and then he starts to get rolling OK from there, but it will take a few games before we see any ‘old’ Deshaun hope -- but it’s just my wild speculation.
Houston is tough against the pass, but not unstoppable.
What if Deshaun goes out with a giant ax to grind AT HOUSTON and just rolls up a ton of yards and points and runs around like crazy to try to utterly destroy the Texans? Minds will change fast on him in FF.
Snap Counts of Interest:
64 = Njoku
21 = H Bryant
13 = Ph Brown
47 = Chubb
32 = K Hunt
62 = Rachaad
09 = K Vaughn
36 = Otton
35 = Brate
16 = Kieft
