DFS Shark Tank Week 12: Player/Stack/Avoid Pitch for the $1M+ Open Tournaments
I (RC) am going to play one DFS lineup in a $1M (min.) contest each week to try and take a dart throw at the big money to fund three things: (1) Myself, (2) FFM, (3) my favorite charity.
The odds of hitting on one entry in a giant pool is near impossible…but that’s the fun of it, the lottery dream of it.
My plan to make a lineup is going to be ‘the fun’ here. I, myself, do not functionally play DFS myself…I get submerged in Fantasy and scouting and questions and shows and writing, etc., all day every day. I’m not an expert in the salary and stack aspects, etc., so I’m going to do the smart thing -- lean on two people who are more expert in it than I.
There will be five inputs to make my FF lineup for the million (or bust)…
1) FFM’s Ross Jacobs, who is taking a deeper dive into the world of DFS this year.
2) Andrew Duhan…known to us as ‘Andrew DFS’…one of the most expert DFS sources that I know.
3) My wife, who knows nothing about football, is going to make one random pick at a position (probably like DST…or from a group of top options of the other positions.
4) I will pick one favorite play/player.
5) I will let Advanced Sports Logic’s ‘DFS Optimizer’, which uses FFM projections correlated to the salary and instantly/AI’s the best spends to fill out as many positions (or all positions) as needed. More info on the program and subscribing to the DFS Optimizer on the ‘Optimizer’ tab on the FFM homepage.
But I will begin each week by consulting with my two experts, who I’ve asked to pitch four concepts…
1) Their best ‘stack’ play, and why.
2) Their best mid-range salary player I should have in my lineup.
3) Their best cheapo play I should have in my lineup construction.
4) The bigger name/salary player I should avoid -- for either game logic or DFS ‘ownership %’ logic (and we’ll explain what that means).
The two DFS experts are going to pitch me (a la a Shark Tank type pitch) their concepts Saturday night on a group chat, which will be posted in full below -- so you can see their picks/plays and logic to consider for your own lineup constructions in DFS. I don’t know who they are gonna pitch until they pitch it…and I’ll react to it, and we’ll group discuss it. They also don’t know who the other might pitch -- they may end up with the same exact concept/player…they won’t know until the chat starts.
We haven’t practiced this ahead, I just laid out the generic concept and we’re about to see where it goes. Forgive any typos…and good luck with your DFS plays this week!
*** Because of the injury to RC, there was no chat this week…so, the experts submitted their plays independent of each other (and there’s a reason I emphasize that this week…).
Here’s some of their DFS wisdom for this week’s slate…
ANDREW DFS:
The two chalkiest QB plays of the week are projected to be Patrick Mahomes and Geno Smith. Both have favorable matchups, and Geno’s salary is on the lighter side at D$6,000. Given that their ownership percentages should be just under 15%, you can still play these two. Keep in mind that there is a good chance that the KC vs LAR game gets out of hand quickly which will cause the game script to be more run heavy than usual. The over/under is 42 points, the lowest total ever for a game with KC when Mahomes is starting at QB. The last time a QB scored more than 30 points when the team was favored by more than double digits and the OU was no more than 43 was Ben Roethlisberger in Week 14 of 2017. If anybody is going to break a trend, it’s Mahomes, and also the QBs / offenses in games with a low OU aren’t as prolific as Mahomes / KC. Regardless, there is enough evidence here to go a different direction.
As for Geno, the Raiders run defense is one of the worst in the league and there should be rain during the game. Seattle’s game script should also tilt more in favor of the run versus pass. The QB I would go with in the milly maker competition is Bengals QB Joe Burrow. The Titans run defense is stingy and Bengals will be without starting RB Joe Mixon. These are positive indicators that Burrow will be throwing the ball more than usual. Since Jamar Chase is not expected to play, Higgins may have a higher ownership percentage than current projections. Given Burrow’s low ownership projection, a stack with Higgins can still be considered. Tyler Boyd and Hayden Hurst are other good cheaper / less chalky options. A nice bring back piece would be Titans rookie WR Treylon Burks who is coming off a great game against GB.
Mid-range play
JAX WR Christian Kirk has an ownership percentage less than 5%. While it’ll be difficult to run against the Baltimore defense, the Jaguars should be able to move the ball through the air. Kirk can also take away opportunities for chalkier teammates Evan Engram and Travis Etienne.
Cheap play of the week
KC RB Isiah Pacheco is a great option this week. He will benefit from a game script that should be titled towards the run. His ownership projection is 5-7%.
Player to avoid
Highly owned players don’t provide much upside in a big pool. Typically, these players are projected to do well so it’s difficult to ignore chalky players. Fading a chalky player that goes off for more than 30 points will almost surely eliminate your chances for the top prize. KC D and MIA RB Jeff Wilson Jr could have an ownership percentage greater than 50%. Both have very favorable matchups and will be difficult to pass. Of all the players with an ownership projection greater than 20% I would fade DEN RB Latavius Murray. Carolina’s defense is stingy and there is a good chance they will keep Murray under 15 fantasy points.
*Ross Jacobs had holiday schedule conflicts and will be back at it next week!
