2022 Week 12 Game Recap: Cowboys 28, Giants 20 (By Ross Jacobs)
The Giants fought hard here and actually had a lead at halftime. A few things broke their way in the first half and it looked like it might be a close game the whole way, but after halftime the Cowboys made some adjustments and pulled away fairly easily. Dallas should have covered the spread but missed a field goal with about a minute left and New York drove for a meaningless last TD to cover.
The Cowboys continue to surprise me. A few weeks ago I thought their defense might be falling apart after giving up big games to the Bears and Packers, but no, it was just a blip. They have come on very strong since then and now the offense is starting to click a little too. They have averaged 36.3 ppg over their last 4 games. The schedule is set up very favorably but they are still 2 games behind Philly for the division. The Eagles are slowing down however right as the Cowboys are picking up their game, so I think this is going to be a very tight race to the finish after all and I won't be surprised in the least if Dallas catches them. The Cowboys absolutely have to win their week 16 game with Philly, but if they do it likely comes down to tiebreaks. One of these two teams is going to be the #1 seed in the NFC and the other is going to get the #5 seed despite the fact that they are better than most of the teams ahead of them. The only team I can see challenging these two in the NFC playoffs is San Francisco.
The Giants had a fantastic start to their season, they won a lot of close games, played well over their talent level...they are just a solid, well-coached team, not a pushover anymore, but the wheels are starting to come off and the schedule is coming to get them. They will be dogs in 5 of their last 6 games and project (for me) to finish with 8-9 wins, maybe 10 if they get lucky. Their playoff hopes are definitely still alive.
Fantasy Player Notes:
– RC and I have been pushing a Michael Gallup breakout for weeks and in the first half here it looked like that was coming true. Gallup had 5 catches for 63 yards at the half and was obviously the top target for Dak. In the 2nd half they just completely abandoned him though in favor of lots of running and a bunch of short passes to Lamb. Gallup easily could have had another 50-70 yards and a TD though if Dak had thrown a better pass on a deep shot or if Gallup hadn't been interfered with on the play (no call). The breakout we were calling for was literally inches away, and I want to keep pounding the table for him but there are two problems now.
First, while there are stretches where Gallup looks like the obvious top receiver, it never sustains for an entire game. Whether it's Dak, or Jerry pushing Lamb, or Kellen Moore wanting a balanced passing game, or McCarthy wanting to run the ball, whatever the cause, Gallup never gets 10+ targets like he probably should. It just isn't happening no matter how good he looks visually to our eyes.
The second problem is that I expect Odell Beckham to sign with Dallas now. He has reportedly been down to the Giants and Cowboys for a few weeks now, and I think this game cemented the choice for him. He wants to go to the better offense, to the team that could make some noise in the playoffs, and he wants the media attention of wearing that star on his helmet. It's a classic Jerry Jones attention-seeking signing and fits perfectly with OBJ's personality as well.
Forget the fact that OBJ hasn't been a great receiver for 6 or 7 years (he was just ok last year, a decent compliment to Kupp but nothing special). Forget the fact that he's 30 years old and coming off of an ACL tear. None of that matters because Jerry Jones and the entire NFL thinks OBJ is still the megastar he was during his first few years with the Giants. They will 100% throw him right into the starting lineup with no practice and force him the ball to prove their idiotic belief that he's still great. Noah Brown will get sent to the bench despite the fact that he's the superior player, and OBJ is going to take a share of Lamb and Gallup's numbers, most of it coming out of Gallup's ledger.
The winner from OBJ signing with Dallas? There is no winner for fantasy. It's less numbers to go around for everyone. OBJ certainly isn't coming into a crowded situation at his age and off an ACL tear and suddenly being a WR1 or even a WR2. Last year, pre-injury, on the Rams high powered offense where he was clearly the #2 option with lesser coverage because of Kupp, OBJ averaged 3.6 catches for 29.6 yards over 7 regular season games. His claim to fame was catching 5 TDs over that time frame, almost all of them from the goal line. His playoff numbers were a little better, 5.3 catches for 72 yards and 0.5 TD per game. He's not likely to match that in Dallas, not with so many other good players around him. I'd expect something closer to his regular season numbers with the Rams. My opinion? If you pick him up, trade him to some sucker for whatever you can get. As for my Gallup breakout prediction, I think that may be dead now. He simply isn't getting the opportunity he should be and with OBJ in the picture it will be even less likely. He's a flex option at best in that case. Now if OBJ does not sign with Dallas then it might still happen, but I don't expect that at this point.
– With NYG having both their top corners out here, RC and I expected Dak Prescott to bomb them for a nice fantasy game. He was ok but nothing special. So what happened? Well for one, the Giants played pretty decent coverage even without their best guys. They are just so well-coached. But Dak was actually really efficient despite that (and being under a decent amount of pressure). He averaged 8.7 ypa for the game...they just didn't throw it much, only 30 attempts for the game which is the pattern with him lately. Since Dak returned from his injury he's only thrown for more than 30 attempts in 1 game (the shootout with Green Bay). Every other game he's between 25-30 attempts, very efficient, but this just isn't the pass-heavy offense it was the past few years. McCarthy and Moore are leaning heavily on the RBs right now, riding their run game instead of letting Dak off the leash, and honestly it's hard to argue with that gameplan when the Dallas offense is averaging 36 ppg.
The good news is Dak has a really high floor right now. He's going to throw for around 250 yards and 2 TDs almost every game with upside if Dallas gets into any shootouts. That probably isn't going to win you many games alone, but he's very safe and not going to lose you games either.
– The two RBs are, as predicted, in a full-blown 50/50 split now. I said Zeke would take more touches now that he's healthy and he did. Pollard is never going to push him totally out of the picture. The Dallas coaches believe in playing both of them now. Zeke is the “starter” and gets more time early and the short yardage stuff, but Pollard is where they are going when the game is on the line or they need an explosive play. Both guys are RB2s, Zeke because he'll get the short TDs to boost his numbers and Pollard because he typically gets some ppr work.
– Not much to say about the Giants offense. Barkley got shut down because Dallas knows the offense runs through him and they hyper-focused on stopping him. The Cowboys have the defensive talent to do that. Most teams do not. Barkley will be fine and is a top 3 back no questions asked.
– Darius Slayton is so impressive every week and just missed out on another 40 yards or so here. He dropped a tough catch early on or he might have gone over 100 again. He's a great buy-low target if you can get him. He's clearly the #1 option here and is working like a true #1 receiver. It's a shame he's never gotten the push he deserves except when every other Giant receiver gets hurt. He's been their best guy for years now and just gets totally ignored. I think he's earned a spot here for 2023 though because Daboll isn't a complete idiot like previous coaches. Just be aware for dynasty that he won't be the #1 next year because they will absolutely either draft a hotshot rookie or sign an underrated veteran star to be their top guy the way Buffalo brought in Diggs. Slayton will be the #2 in 2023 and the passing game won't be high-flying just yet so it probably won't amount to much for fantasy. Slayton is a fine WR2 for the rest of this year but will be just a WR3-4 next year.
– Lawrence Cager started the game off with a nice catch and run for 20 yards and then the team just inexplicably never went to him again. He wasn't hurt or benched...they just didn't target him. He looks solid to me but it'll be hard to trust him next week after how he was ignored here.
Snap Counts of Interest:
63 = Schultz
60 = Lamb
57 = Gallup
34 = Brown
44 = Pollard
38 = Zeke
54 = Slayton
45 = Hodgins
45 = James
47 = Barkley
28 = Cager
14 = Hudson
