2022 Week 12: Vikings 33, Patriots 26 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
Well, we got our answer to the collective question of whether the Patriots defense was for real or just schedule driven. Another nail in the Zach Wilson/Jets coffin…he couldn’t hardly complete a pass against NE’s defense the past few weeks, whereas Kirk Cousins looked like Joe Montana.
But so too did Mac Jones look like Joe Montana…showing the Vikings have defensive issues of their own, but they also were using XFL-level corners throughout the game due to mass CB injury.
The week prior, the Jets-Pats went back and forth in offensive ineptitude. A week later, this game, the Vikes-Pats played a video game of offense…and the better QB, the better team (despite the mass CB injuries) ended up winning in the end.
The Vikings just keep winning and are now (9-2)…with a 5-game lead in their division with 6 games left! They are in a dogfight for the #1 seed in the NFC…and for the best record in the NFL…AND they aren’t even one of the 10 best teams in football!
Sometimes a good schedule, lucky breaks in-game and with injuries, and a very good head coach leading a well-heeled team can go on a magical run. The Vikes project to finish with 12 +/- wins and the division title but not a #1 seed, but #1 seed can’t be ruled out because the Eagles are not infallible either.
The Patriots got exposed for the frauds they are and now fall to (6-5). They are also well coached, well-heeled but lacking talent and lacking inspiration by the players via the coaching staff. The Pats look and play as miserable as their coach is, temperament-wise, while the Vikings have fun and continuity…and keep winning. The fact that Minnesota could score a ton of points/win this game missing their best offensive lineman and using CFL corners -- the Patriots will not be a serious playoff threat and will likely finish last in the stacked AFC East. New England likely gets to 8 wins in the end, possibly 9 with light wildcard hopes…they hold tiebreakers over NYJ and Indy, which helps.
*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a ‘split’ stat on our definition of a ‘quality start’ (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 for a QB…point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.
A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the mark, and 2 times they did not.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- There was much debate about the NE-DST leading into this game. Three great games in a row from this DST ahead of this game, but we landed (in the debate last week) on the side of the Patriots being more frauds on defense than not…beating the helpless (Z Wilson 2x and Ehlinger) while struggling all season with any decent QBs.
Facing Minnesota, who had 3 points the week prior, and were missing the rock of their O-Line (Darrisaw), Minnesota mowed right through the Patriots for 50%+ 3rd-down conversions, 33 points and over 300+ yards passing.
The Patriots face all good or great QBs ahead, the rest of the NFL season. Week 14 at Arizona might be OK-ish, otherwise this is a mediocre defense with a bad schedule ahead. You should have moved on before this, but now you can for sure.
-- Mac Jones (28-39 for 382 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) picked on the USFL level corners the Vikings had to deploy due to injury, and thus had his best game of the 2022 season.
Mac is playing better ball since the quasi-Zappe benching moment but it’s very controlled, unimaginative, dump passing and lofting prayers…a game manager effort still…that’s all he’ll ever be.
-- I’m never going to utter the words ‘Damien Harris’ (5-16-0) again. My outta nowhere RB for the week, got hurt in-game and will likely be out a few games.
I’m not throwing a tantrum at the in-game Harris injury…I just heard a Jason Garrett discussion with Bill Belichick and I’m changing all my perspective on this backfield, now and for the future.
In-game, Garrett was discussing his pregame media interview with Belichick…and Garrett (and Dungy) went on to discuss how usually you can’t get two words of note out of Belichick, and they were asking about something else and then Belichick lit up and talked about how great a worker, player, etc., Rhamondre Stevenson (7-36-0, 9-76-0/10) is. Garrett went on and on about how effusive Belichick was about Stevenson, and Garrett conveyed the message a bit stunned by Belichick’s openness and praise.
I thought Harris was kinda respected equal to or over Stevenson, but no slam against Harris…but I take this conversation Garrett relayed at face value, because it sounded 100% sincere (and shocking to them) that Belichick is in love with Stevenson -- so, game-on with Stevenson ahead…and into the future if Belichick is still there. Belichick doesn’t talk much, and he doesn’t talk like that hardly at all…so, none of us could’ve known…but now we do.
-- Because these two teams are soft against the pass, the run games were stunted…the teams combined for 102 total yards rushing.
Dalvin Cook’s (22-42-0, 4-14-0/5) low game is a function of a good NE run defense and missing Darrisaw on the O-Line. No other issues detected.
-- I called for a ‘pop’ week from re-emerging Jonnu Smith (0-0-0/0) here, so of course he got no targets and the previously disappeared Hunter Henry (3-63-1/5) gets the favorable matchup bump. I’m never talking about or endorsing a NE tight end the rest of 2022. Been burned every time I try.
Next week, I bet Jonnu has 100+ yards and 2 TDs…
-- Looks like Pats SAF Kyle Dugger (9 tackles) is getting healthy and back to some old form…8.0 tackles, 1.0 TFLs, 0.50 sacks the past two games. He’s still not playing near 100% of the defensive snaps…mostly in the 60-80% of snaps range, so we can’t get fully excited yet.
Snap Counts of Interest:
47 = D Parker
43 = Agholor
38 = Bourne
20 = Ty Thornton
16 = Jakobi
45 = Stevenson
11 = D Harris
39 = H Henry
16 = Jonnu
