2022 Week 12: Bills 28, Lions 25 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
Fun game to kickoff the Thanksgiving day games, a back and forth affair, as we suspected it would be with Detroit tying it 25-25 with 0:23 left, but they let Buffalo get in field goal range with that little time remaining and ‘ballgame’…the Lions win streak was halted at three.
This was no fluke moment…I discussed on the Bet The Close podcast ahead of this game that Buffalo was wilting/not as good as the public thought and the Lions were a good cover bet but also a possible outright winner. It nearly happened. We live in a football world where the Lions are now close to the (current) Bills as a team/talent. Credit to Dan Campbell. Sean McDermott is not showing the same coaching wizardry as Dan Campbell is through all the key injuries both teams have had to deal with all season. Buffalo is fading, the Lions are ascending through sheer will.
Buffalo is now (8-3)…if they had lost they had a chance to wind up in last place in the division after this week, but they won and the Pats lost later this day and ‘crisis adverted’. Buffalo looks like they’ll wind up with 11-12 wins, trying to fight off Miami for the division, and will NOT a #1 seed this season.
Detroit is now (4-7)…if they had won here to get to (5-6) they would be in playoff contention, now they’re a ways off. 7-8 wins in the end, likely…but 9 wins and some wild card hope isn’t totally out of the question. Most likely they end up under .500 for the season and strong hopes to make the playoffs and/or win the division next season.
*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a ‘split’ stat on our definition of a ‘quality start’ (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 for a QB…point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.
A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the mark, and 2 times they did not.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- A nice bounce back game for Josh Allen (24-42 for 253 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT, 10-78-1). Another game he wasn’t golden (a growing 2022 theme) for 3+ quarters but took it over when he needed to, and they got the win and Allen another quality start. Allen is a (9/2) this season.
But I also want to compliment Jared Goff (23-37 for 240 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT), who also had a very good game and almost won. Anyone who thinks the Lions are going to ditch Goff and go with some rookie drafted QB in 2023 is out of their minds. He will be their QB in 2023 and likely 2024 and potentially beyond. He’s a perfect fit there, and he is playing well for NFL purposes…a QB2 for FF purposes, but a higher-end QB2.
-- A tale of two underutilized RBs, where their touch counts in this important/down-to-the-wire game tells us all we need to know about what the coaches are thinking…
1) D’Andre Swift (5-19-0, 4-24-0/8) has been a bit player for several weeks now. It should not be new news that the Lions see Swift as nothing more than a satellite back and a quasi-WR of sorts. He’s an RB3/4 week-to-week. RB2/3 in PPR. Swift is a (3/5) this season…a (1/5) his last 6 games.
2) James Cook (2-4-0, 2-14-0/5) got the Swift-like diss here, after showing great promise/growth the last 2+ weeks…Cook gets this low-level touch count and low snap count (14). The Bills have done a horrific job growing/developing and utilizing Cook in the thing he was drafted for…the pass game.
The Bills may have an O-C problem looming, hidden by how good Josh Allen can be off script to make everything look good. Allen is having a down year, and they drafted Cook to be a receiving threat and he is never used that way at all.
-- The Lions are struggling with smaller slot WRs the past two weeks…
Week 11 = Wan’Dale Robinson had his breakout performance of 2022: 9-100-0/13
Week 12 = Isaiah McKenzie (6-56-1/10) arose from the dead, a ‘nothing’ his prior 5 games, to have a nice output game here.
Detroit will likely make a coverage change ahead but if not…slot WR Christian Kirk gets them Week 13, then Justin Jefferson Week 14.
-- Not a bad showing by the Lions-DST here. They are getting better as we go, but not useful yet for FF purposes. They’d be a deep sleeper play hosting JAX Week 13.
The Lions also finally gave 5th-round FCS draft pick/rookie James Houston (2 tackles, 2.0 sacks) some snaps, a player both Ross Jacobs and I loved from our 2022 scouting…Houston played 5 snaps here and had 2.0 sacks. Stunning…he looks good on both sacks too, fighting through two blockers to get to Josh Allen.
-- Another so-so, for what we expect from the Bills-DST, performance here. They have not been a top DST for five weeks now…they’re missing too many defenders to injury each week. OK against NE next week and OK vs. NYJ Week 14, but a ‘sit’ vs. Miami Week 15.
Tre’Davious White (0 stats) returned…started…played 16 snaps but didn’t have a huge impact. He will as he goes…if he is truly healed.
Snap Counts of Interest:
62 = St. Brown
54 = Raymond
52 = DJ Chark
08 = Reynolds
04 = T Kennedy
30 = Jamaal W
24 = Swift
18 = Justin Jackson
60 = Singletary
14 = J Cook
04 = N Hines
