RC's daily streaming notes on football, and other, things going on this week...
10/4 SUN (7:04amET)
Today:
-- Sunday Morning Sit-Start Livestream Q&A 10:30-NoonET
-- Week 4 Projections FINAL update 12:30pm approx.
-- Sports Card giveaway 3-player FF contest picks per contestant listed at the end of this report.
-- Two Scouts Talking YouTube Video (breaks for the weekend + Monday, back at it on Tu-W-Thu-Fri this week). Shooting 3-4 videos today for release throughout this week.
This past week/s:
Tre Harris: https://youtu.be/t5sBsrte-oI
Kenyon Sadiq: https://youtu.be/flBWVXhOcFs
Ollie v. Braelon: https://youtu.be/9tsBBLYSIB8
Jonah Coleman: https://youtu.be/1PgxRk1Sqdc
Oronde Gadsden: https://youtu.be/zpqx5v_M-dQ
Kalif Raymond: https://youtu.be/fQsruq7zvaI
Devaughn Vele: https://youtu.be/1aHFMgfQI14
Drake Maye: https://youtu.be/MnrK3foEQNQ
--------------------------
NEW DISCORD NOTIFICATION SYSTEM/INVITE: FFM Discord Notification System
*This is not a chat room. It is a one-way channel for FFM notifications about newly posted items and critical breaking news.
== NEWS & NOTES & Xs ==
EARLY INJURY Info...
-- Ladd McConkey expected to play today.
-- CAR OT Monroe Freeling cleared concussion protocol...a huge thing for the Panthers.
-- Tyjae Spears is playing today.
-- Mike Evans is not a lock but is hoping to play.
-- Jalen Coker unlikely to play today.
Sunday Morning London game: IND v. WSH
Colts = Terrible defense especially run game and vs. TEs. Not great vs. the pass but it’s better than their run defense.
Washington should run JCM all over them to try and control the game and help their defense.
-------------------
Commanders = Statistically top 5 or so, in our metrics, run defense...one of three defenses to not have allowed a rushing TD so far. But are an absolute trainwreck against the pass.
Indy should just come out throwing, but they are typically JT-led...but this could be like the Geno Smith vs. DET moment from last week where the matchup just demands it to be higher pass game and Daniel Jones has a killer week.
-- HEADLINE: Chicago Bears left tackle Braxton Jones has been placed on injured reserve after sustaining an injury to his right knee against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 3.
Ozzy Trapillo isn’t returning this week to save the day. The Bears have some depth but this is all still a blow. Ben Johnson likely has some playcalling tricks up his sleeve for his old Lions in-house nemesis Aaron Glenn. But down OLs and starting Bagent...the Jets have advantages going into this.
-- Get ready for Joe Mixon heat the next few days: https://www.si.com/nfl/bengals/onsi/former-bengals-star-joe-mixon-hints-at-nfl-comeback
We don’t know if he has anything left. We don’t know when...we don’t know where he can come back. If you think he is coming back to be a frontline starter out of nowhere after missing like 2 years of football...it’s a stretch.
He’ll wait for a good team to get obliterated with RB injury/s and then battle Kareem Hunt for a spot.
OR
A top contender signs him for depth so he doesn’t have to come in and prove or save anything immediately.
-- ESPN Long Report: A long read, a somewhat interesting read on QB injuries in 2026 compared to the past. https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/50059971/quarterback-injuries-barnwell-mayfield-dart-daniels
Through three weeks, 41 quarterbacks have thrown at least five passes. That's up slightly from a year ago, when 40 quarterbacks were on the board through three weeks, and tied for where we were in 2024. There was a four-year stretch between 2020 and 2023 when we saw fewer quarterbacks than normal, including just 35 passers appearing through three weeks in 2022.
Since 2002, though, the average has been just over 39 quarterbacks with at least five pass attempts over the first three weeks of the season. And that number hasn't even changed all that much since the league emphasized roughing the passer rules heading into the 2018 season. Teams have averaged 38.9 quarterbacks through three games over that span.
== INJURY CENTER/WARD ==
-- @TomPelissero: The Commanders are hopeful QB Jayden Daniels — who returned to practice this week with a brace on his balky left elbow — will start next Sunday against the Giants.
== Interesting STAT Center ==
-- Jaguars since Week 11 last season:
10-1 W-L (1st)
31.9 PPG (1st)
13.8 PPG allowed (1st)
+199 point differential (1st)
-- MOST fantasy points allowed to RBs through Week 3:
GB - 30.7
CAR - 30.5
MIA - 29.3
DEN - 28.7
IND - 28.1 (London game today)
LEAST fantasy points allowed to RBs through Week 3:
HOU - 11.8
WAS - 12.3 (London game today)
MIN - 12.7
ATL - 12.8
SEA - 16.2
RC vs. Ross Coffee bets (through Wk3):
More targets this season...
21 = Raymond (RC)
09 = D. Swift (Ross)
== QUOTES & QUOTABLES ==
-- Steve Smith Sr. Shocked as Patrick Surtain II “Throws Rare Full-On Tantrum” in Frustration attempting to lock down Davante Adams!
"I saw when he got frustrated, and I was like, 'Yo, Surtain doesn't get frustrated like that.'"
-- An opposing coach who faced the #Patriots this season on New England’s offensive system: “[Maye’s] got to be better at learning what defenses look like and where his relief’s going to be, but the offensive system doesn’t do him any favors in my opinion.
They only run a certain number of plays and it’s the same plays they’ve been running for a long time. And if your quarterback’s not Tom Brady, who’s going to get you in the perfect call, or someone like Josh Allen who’s [elite at] second-chance plays, that offensive system after a while starts to get real stale.”
Your moment of Zen for this day...
-- Please tell me again how important big time EDGE rushers are... https://x.com/ItsJas1999/status/2106099089322713593
-- Mic drop: https://x.com/SleeperHQ/status/2106443901678862358?s=20
*SPORTS CARD Giveaway:
The contestants have been given their instructions (finalists check your emails if you didn’t see yet, sent yesterday)...a 3-player FF contest for the sports card draft order. Pick 3 players for Sunday, RB-WR-TE only, PPR and the scoring of the trio determines the draft order.
The Five cards to give away:
2005 Bowman Aaron Rodgers rookie card grade 9 - $40-75
2017 Panini TJ Watt rookie card grade 10 - $90-125
1989 Topps Deion Sanders rookie card grade 10 - $70-100
2001 Bowman LaDainian Tomlinson rookie card grade 9 - $30-50+
1984 Topps Eric Dickerson rookie card grade 9 autograph grade 10 - $300-500+
The five people being entered into the lottery...AND THEIR 3 Players for FF this week to determine the sports card draft order.
#1: Bma..... @gmail (from the video show end group from a couple weeks ago) = Gibbs, JSN, Bijan
#2: Ch.... @msn = Random from the OG group of longest-term FFM subscribers = JaMarr, Gibbs, JSN
#3: Oli... @yahoo = Random from the 2026 new subscriber list, any category/item. = JSN, Gibbs, Henry
#4: Mit... @go...com = Random from ‘Betting’ subscribers/Private Club = Gibbs, JSN, CMC
#5: Ser.... @gmail = Random from all sources of subscribers = Gibbs, Henry, JT
----------------------------------------------------------
*How to sign up for our monthly or annual access: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/total-football-advisor
*Draft Guide season access $24.99: https://ffmetrics.com/draft-guide/draft-guide
*How to get the free FFM App and FAQs on how to use: https://ffmetrics.com/5663-how-to-get-the-free-ffm-app
*Our Betting Subscription offering (including private Discord chat access): https://ffmetrics.com/betting/betting
=====================
10/3 SAT (6:10amET)
Today:
-- Week 4 Projections update
-- Week 3 Game Reports
-- Two Scouts Talking YouTube Video (breaks for the weekend + Monday, back at it on Tu-W-Thu-Fri this week). Shooting 3-4 videos today for release throughout this week.
This past week/s:
Tre Harris: https://youtu.be/t5sBsrte-oI
Kenyon Sadiq: https://youtu.be/flBWVXhOcFs
Ollie v. Braelon: https://youtu.be/9tsBBLYSIB8
Jonah Coleman: https://youtu.be/1PgxRk1Sqdc
Oronde Gadsden: https://youtu.be/zpqx5v_M-dQ
Kalif Raymond: https://youtu.be/fQsruq7zvaI
Devaughn Vele: https://youtu.be/1aHFMgfQI14
Drake Maye: https://youtu.be/MnrK3foEQNQ
-- New Rookie Card giveaway...the lottery for the five rookie cards revealed below. There’s gonna be a contest between the 5 finalists for the pick order in Week 4.
--------------------------
NEW DISCORD NOTIFICATION SYSTEM/INVITE: FFM Discord Notification System
*This is not a chat room. It is a one-way channel for FFM notifications about newly posted items and critical breaking news.
== NEWS & NOTES & Xs ==
-- HEADLINE: 49ers LT Trent Williams (stinger) was removed from the injury report and will play in Week 4 against the Broncos.
HEADLINE: 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan said Mike Evans (ribs) will be a game-time decision for Week 4 against the Broncos.
It’s more important that the 49ers have Trent than Mike. Much bigger deal. Changes the projections with Trent healthy.
We’ll see about Mike Evans. He usually find away to play through these things but my guess is he will sit a game as SF has the (3-0) start cushion to not have to push anything at this stage.
If Evans is out, Deebo and Kittle and CMC will pick up the slack in some way.
-- HEADLINE: Raiders ruled out RG Jackson Powers-Johnson (groin) for Week 4 against the Chiefs.
This is a biggie too. The LV run game is a little wobbly...because it is getting stacked, and now they lost a hoss that helps the run game. A step in the wrong direction for LV to upset KC.
-- HEADLINE: Rams ruled out Aaron Donald (back) for Week 4 against the Eagles.
What do you do when you acquire a magical defense...and its key component all are hurt/out? Donald out. Garrett out. CB Jaylen Watson out again. However, Puka is back at least.
The Eagles could try to take advantage of this, but they will be missing Zach Baun, Landon Dickerson, and DeVonta Smith.
The NFL and Fantasy Football 2026 is triage week-to-week.
You’re gonna take hits every week or two...sucker punches via injury all season. You gotta endure. You gotta MacGyver this thing all season. Just like the Rams and 31 other NFL teams week-to-week. SF and Carolina more than the others...
== INJURY CENTER/WARD ==
-- Justin Jefferson (ankle) will not play in Minnesota’s Week 4 game against the Dolphins.
-- Patriots CB Christian Gonzalez (shoulder) will not play in New England’s Week 4 game against the Bills.
-- Chiefs ruled out LT Josh Simmons (back) for Week 4 against the Raiders.
-- Joey Porter (back/conditioning/contract) is not on the injury report for Week 4 against the Texans.
-- Seahawks rule out Jadarian Price (chest) for Week 4 against the Chargers.
-- Dolphins RB Jaylen Wright (foot) was removed from the injury report and will play in Week 4 against the Vikings.
-- Nico Collins (hamstring) is not on Houston’s final Week 4 injury report.
== Unique STAT Center ==
-- @32BeatWriters: “Per Next Gen Stats, Hunter Henry actually leads the Patriots' pass-catchers in missed tackles forced this year, with 1 (one). There's no tie there, either. That's right, the Patriots' wide receivers have forced the same amount of missed tackles this year as you, dear reader. They have made zero tacklers miss this season.”
-- @OptaSTATS: The Browns are the only team in NFL history to have:
fewer TDs
fewer made FGs
fewer rushing yards
fewer net passing yards
more turnovers
more penalties
...than their opponents through 4 games of a season and yet still have a winning record.
-- The Raiders defense ranks:
1st in Interceptions (4)
1st in Forced Fumbles (10)
1st in Fumble Recoveries (5)
4th in Sacks (10)
-- Only one team (Jets) this season has:
-Thrown zero interceptions on offense
-Has zero interceptions on defense
RC vs. Ross Coffee bets (through Wk3):
More targets this season...
21 = Raymond (RC)
09 = D. Swift (Ross)
== QUOTES & QUOTABLES ==
-- Giants have a winning record with John Harbaugh.
Mike Macdonald won a SB with Seattle.
Justin Herbert looks way worse after losing Greg Roman.
Todd Monken changed the culture of the Cleveland Browns.
These are the coaches that apparently “let Lamar Jackson down” in the playoffs
Your moment of Zen for this day...
-- MIN: https://x.com/canedad19/status/2105843890389684349?s=20
-- Finally, someone addressed the bane of my Sunday existence: https://x.com/ChrisBarnes/status/2106030147271070057?s=20
-- My guy...and I don’t know why: https://x.com/itsbobbyfingz8c/status/2105947648549413277?s=20
-- https://x.com/pakaluxavierog/status/2105847242833977496
-- Could this be true, maybe: https://x.com/bougiesports/status/2106025988408648161
*SPORTS CARD Giveaway:
The contestants have been given their instructions (finalists check your emails if you didn’t see yet, sent yesterday)...a 3-player FF contest for the sports card draft order. Pick 3 players for Sunday, RB-WR-TE only, PPR and the scoring of the trio determines the draft order.
The Five cards to give away:
2005 Bowman Aaron Rodgers rookie card grade 9 - $40-75
2017 Panini TJ Watt rookie card grade 10 - $90-125
1989 Topps Deion Sanders rookie card grade 10 - $70-100
2001 Bowman LaDainian Tomlinson rookie card grade 9 - $30-50+
1984 Topps Eric Dickerson rookie card grade 9 autograph grade 10 - $300-500+
The five people being entered into the lottery...
#1: Bma..... @gmail (from the video show end group from a couple weeks ago)
#2: Ch.... @msn = Random from the OG group of longest-term FFM subscribers
#3: Oli... @yahoo = Random from the 2026 new subscriber list, any category/item.
#4: Mit... @go...com = Random from ‘Betting’ subscribers/Private Club
#5: Ser.... @gmail = Random from all sources of subscribers
Going to have a FF mini-contest Week 4 to determine picking order. My Week 3 schedule got blown up to do this Week 3.
----------------------------------------------------------
*How to sign up for our monthly or annual access: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/total-football-advisor
*Draft Guide season access $24.99: https://ffmetrics.com/draft-guide/draft-guide
*How to get the free FFM App and FAQs on how to use: https://ffmetrics.com/5663-how-to-get-the-free-ffm-app
*Our Betting Subscription offering (including private Discord chat access): https://ffmetrics.com/betting/betting
=====================
10/2 FRI (7:27amET)
Today:
-- Week 4 Projections update
-- Week 3 Game Reports
-- Two Scouts Talking YouTube Video (breaks for the weekend + Monday, back at it on Tu-W-Thu-Fri this week). Shooting 3-4 videos today for release throughout this week.
This past week/s:
Kenyon Sadiq: https://youtu.be/flBWVXhOcFs
Ollie v. Braelon: https://youtu.be/9tsBBLYSIB8
Jonah Coleman: https://youtu.be/1PgxRk1Sqdc
Oronde Gadsden: https://youtu.be/zpqx5v_M-dQ
Kalif Raymond: https://youtu.be/fQsruq7zvaI
Devaughn Vele: https://youtu.be/1aHFMgfQI14
Drake Maye: https://youtu.be/MnrK3foEQNQ
-- New Rookie Card giveaway...the lottery for the five rookie cards revealed below. There’s gonna be a contest between the 5 finalists for the pick order in Week 4.
--------------------------
NEW DISCORD NOTIFICATION SYSTEM/INVITE: FFM Discord Notification System
*This is not a chat room. It is a one-way channel for FFM notifications about newly posted items and critical breaking news.
== NEWS & NOTES & Xs ==
Week 4 TNF First Reactions...
-- Well, I switched my pick from CLE +2.5 to PIT -2.5 on Thursday afternoon after I scouted the game tape’s of these two teams in Week 3, so ‘the Kiss of the Death’ was given.
I’m not sure I understand any of the 4 teams in the NFC North. Cleveland played their best game, to me, of 2026 here. The Steelers were the ‘bad Steelers’. Last week, Pitt was the frisky team and Cincy ‘mailed it in’. I need to stick with my game (picking) theory = All the teams in the NFL are mediocre and susceptible each week, so use betting trends and injury reports to guide myself...not who looked aesthetically pleasing the last few games or who has the mor functional QB.
Too many in-game injuries and too many bizarre penalties and whacky turnovers or dropped pick-sixes to really KNOW who is going to win/lose adjusted for the spread NFL games in the 2020’s.
My formulas for betting games are getting to be less and less about the two team’s talents and more and more on NFL performance trends...in the regular season.
As to the game itself...
-- Cleveland looked motivated and young and fresh here. If they had a better QB they’d be the NFC North champs. It’s all wonderful to celebrate their 3-game win streak, but they were inches away from losing all of their last 3 games. Sometimes teams just get lucky. Ask the 2025 New England Patriots or the 2026 Minnesota Vikings Weeks 1-3.
And I’m not saying CLE or current MIN are bad, per se. They’re just very lucky to not have been (1-2) or (0-3) heading into Week 4. Neither are great teams, but they will be leading their division after this week.
-- The Steelers played a terrible game here. A dreadful, lifeless passing game that never really adjusted...relying on DK Metcalf to bail them out, and he was terrific here...but usually he drops 50% of his key passes. A defense that didn’t adjust until halftime. How did this team stick it to Cincy last week? It’s the NFL. Playing back-to-back weeks of great football with everything micro going your way--near impossible.
-- Boy, that Andre Szmyt (PK/CLE) has a terrific leg. He’s made his last 22 field goals in-a-row. I just never gave him much attention because he played for Cleveland. Looks like it’s time to adjust higher. He’ll be a PK1 after Week 4 closes (was #13 PK going into Week 4).
-- HEADLINE: Christian Benford (toe) did not practice on Thursday.
This is a bit of a hit/gamechanger for the Biils D versus Drake Maye hopes...if he’s out (and I think he is). May still be fine because the NE offense is sputtering...or not. The pats feel ‘overdue’ this week.
But then NE has their ace CB Christian Gonzalez. very questionable this week as well.
Shutdown (or lack thereof) CB is the 3rd most important position analyzing teams in the NFL.
1st and 2nd-string QBs is #2.
Offensive Line is #1 with a bullet.
-- HEADLINE: 49ers LT Trent Williams (stinger) resumed practicing on Thursday.
Speaking of O-Line as THEE most important...
This is the big one we’re watching. Trent changes everything on everything.
== INJURY CENTER/WARD ==
-- Panthers Injury visual: https://x.com/billbarnwell/status/2105677186225340510
-- Zach Charbonnet (knee) was limited on Thursday.
-- Jadarian Price (chest) did not practice on Thursday.
-- ESPN’s Tim McManus reports that the Eagles are preparing to play without DeVonta Smith (hamstring) in Week 4 against the Rams.
-- The Houston Chronicle’s Jonathan M. Alexander reports that Nico Collins (hamstring) was “optimistic” about playing in Week 4 against the Cowboys.
-- Dolphins RB Jaylen Wright (foot) practiced in full on Thursday.
-- Ladd McConkey (foot) was not seen practicing on Thursday.
-- Saints coach Kellen Moore said that “at the moment,” he does not expect WR Jordyn Tyson (hamstring) to begin practicing next week.
-- Saints placed Travis Etienne on injured reserve with a hamstring injury.
-- Mike Evans (ribs) did not practice on Thursday.
-- Adonai Mitchell (finger) did not practice Thursday.
-- Jayden Daniels (elbow) was limited in Thursday’s practice.
-- Justin Jefferson (ankle) was not spotted at the open portion of practice on Thursday.
-- Rams OC Nate Scheelhaase said he expects Puka Nacua (groin) to practice in full on Thursday.
-- Patriots CB Christian Gonzalez (shoulder) did not practice Thursday.
== Unique STAT Center ==
-- Most receiving touchdowns allowed since 2025:
1. Mike Sainristill (13)
T2. Riley Moss (9)
T2. Kool-Aid McKinstry (9)
-- Flags?: https://x.com/StickToTheModel/status/2105709735899173071
-- Pct of defensive drives causing a turnover this season:
Raiders 25.7%
Jaguars 21.4%
Chargers 17.1%
Vikings 16.2%
Chiefs 16.1%
Bears 16.1%
RC vs. Ross Coffee bets (through Wk3):
More targets this season...
21 = Raymond (RC)
09 = D. Swift (Ross)
== QUOTES & QUOTABLES ==
-- 49ers promoted WR Brandin Cooks to their active roster and signed WR Malik Turner to their practice squad. To make room on the roster, the team released WR KhaDarel Hodge.
-- PIT & DAL Trades: https://x.com/JRown32/status/2105617650172711413?s=20
-- Nabers still hesitates on certain moves as he rebuilds trust in his knee.
Malik Nabers: “Some things that you have to just do that your mind is like, ‘I don't know about this’; you're restricting until you just actually do it. You're like, ‘Okay, I don't feel so bad doing that.’ So I think just putting myself in some of those placements on the field would give me better confidence when I'm out there wanting to do certain moves, but my mind is like, ‘Ah, not yet,’ and just trusting myself to do it.”
-- @Jeff_Erickson: Parker Washington was already in a good spot, but the Bengals' top slot corner Jalen Davis is on IR, and they have multiple safeties banged up. It could be a huge game for Parker Washington on Sunday.
Your moment of Zen for this day...
-- I hope someone sends this to Ben Johnson: https://x.com/YZR_Fantasy/status/2105512777725137272?s=20
-- AI vs. SI: https://x.com/alifarhat79/status/2105689316357812295?s=20
-- Maybe? https://x.com/LisaJen83094400/status/2105703423501082805?s=20
-- Perhaps the fastest swing of a bat that I’ve ever seen: https://x.com/MyBookie/status/2105676417602322706?s=20
*SPORTS CARD Giveaway:
The contestants have been given their instructions (finalistscheck your emails if you didn’t see yet, sent yesterday)...a 3-player FF contest for the sports card draft order. Pick 3 players for Sunday, RB-WR-TE only, PPR and the scoring of the trio determines the draft order.
The Five cards to give away:
2005 Bowman Aaron Rodgers rookie card grade 9 - $40-75
2017 Panini TJ Watt rookie card grade 10 - $90-125
1989 Topps Deion Sanders rookie card grade 10 - $70-100
2001 Bowman LaDainian Tomlinson rookie card grade 9 - $30-50+
1984 Topps Eric Dickerson rookie card grade 9 autograph grade 10 - $300-500+
The five people being entered into the lottery...
#1: Bma..... @gmail (from the video show end group from a couple weeks ago)
#2: Ch.... @msn = Random from the OG group of longest-term FFM subscribers
#3: Oli... @yahoo = Random from the 2026 new subscriber list, any category/item.
#4: Mit... @go...com = Random from ‘Betting’ subscribers/Private Club
#5: Ser.... @gmail = Random from all sources of subscribers
Going to have a FF mini-contest Week 4 to determine picking order. My Week 3 schedule got blown up to do this Week 3.
----------------------------------------------------------
*How to sign up for our monthly or annual access: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/total-football-advisor
*Draft Guide season access $24.99: https://ffmetrics.com/draft-guide/draft-guide
*How to get the free FFM App and FAQs on how to use: https://ffmetrics.com/5663-how-to-get-the-free-ffm-app
*Our Betting Subscription offering (including private Discord chat access): https://ffmetrics.com/betting/betting
=====================
.
10/1 THU (amET)
Today:
-- All Picks Week 4
-- Week 4 Projections update
-- Week 3 Game Reports
-- Two Scouts Talking YouTube Video (breaks for the weekend + Monday, back at it on Tu-W-Thu-Fri this week). Shooting 4-5 videos today for release throughout this week.
This past week/s:
Kenyon Sadiq: https://youtu.be/flBWVXhOcFs
Ollie v. Braelon: https://youtu.be/9tsBBLYSIB8
Jonah Coleman: https://youtu.be/1PgxRk1Sqdc
Oronde Gadsden: https://youtu.be/zpqx5v_M-dQ
Kalif Raymond: https://youtu.be/fQsruq7zvaI
Rookie WRs Week 1: https://youtu.be/bDbYorHydQc
Devaughn Vele: https://youtu.be/1aHFMgfQI14
Drake Maye: https://youtu.be/MnrK3foEQNQ
-- New Rookie Card giveaway...the lottery for the five rookie cards revealed below. There’s gonna be a contest between the 5 finalists for the pick order in Week 4.
--------------------------
NEW DISCORD NOTIFICATION SYSTEM/INVITE: FFM Discord Notification System
*This is not a chat room. It is a one-way channel for FFM notifications about newly posted items and critical breaking news.
== NEWS & NOTES & Xs ==
-- HEADLINE: Rams coach Sean McVay said he expects WR Puka Nacua (groin) to play in Week 4 against the Eagles.
When Puka Nacua returns, that is the end of the Davante Adams upside and really makes all of the tight ends very FF-boring...good luck trying to guess which one of them catches a touchdown this week or any week. Just like Seattle is all about JSN, the Rams are all about Puka Nacua in the passing game...and everyone else tends to starve to death.
-- HEADLINE: 49ers LT Trent Williams (neck) did not practice on Wednesday.
This would be a game-changer on how you do the projections for this offense, which is flying high right now. Trent Williams is arguably the single most important player—the single best player—in the NFL. When he is out, it is not good for anything else for fantasy production. This is a big watchlist item.
-- HEADLINE: Panthers RT Monroe Freeling (concussion) did not practice on Wednesday.
If this guy misses Week 4, then the Panthers have virtually lost absolutely everything on their team. The Panthers are turning into the Green Bay Packers, situationally. No offensive line is going to start to crush the run game, and it is going to bring Bryce Young down. And when Bryce Young goes down then he is taking McMillan and Coker with him to some degree. All you can hope for is constant blowouts and high-scoring games where Carolina pads a lot of stats in the fourth quarter...like what the Packers do.
-- HEADLINE: Panthers placed Jaycee Horn (quad) and Mike Jackson (groin) on injured reserve.
Oh, and this takes the Panthers from one of the better defenses in the league—like a top-ten type defense—to arguably the single worst defense in the NFL. The Panthers' greatest assets on their team was the power of their two cover corners... and now they've lost both of them in the same week, probably for the rest of the season.
If the Panthers somehow survive all of this and make a run at winning the division and going to the playoffs, then Dave Canales should not only get the Coach of the Year award, but they should then just never have the award again because no one's gonna top what Dave Canales just pulled off. You think the San Francisco 49ers have a lot of injuries? They can't compare to what's going on in Carolina; this is tragic.
Well, well, well: https://x.com/ThomasWrrld/status/2105372951688167918?s=20
-- QUOTE: Justin Herbert on Quentin Johnston:
"He's a special talent. He's a guy that we need to get the ball to, and he makes a lot of big plays for us, and he's a huge part of our offense.
"So I know that when I miss a throw or when I throw an interception, the guys are counting on me to bounce back and do my job. So we have complete faith in him, and we'll definitely go back to him and he'll make the next one."
I've gone from having so much high hopes on the Chargers building off of their playoff season last year to absolutely despising what I see from this team and what I hear from their players. I'm just kinda done with all Charger things. I don't see any way these lunatics running the Chargers can turn this thing around. Mike McDaniel is a bullshit artist. Adam Gase is somehow running around the building planning the passing game. And total loon Jim Harbaugh has assembled this trash heap of an Avengers group. Now, Justin Herbert is talking like his coaches. Justin Herbert ‘in love’ this offseason bothered me and now I’m kicking myself.
Tyreek Hill has given so many awful offensive minds a high-paying NFL career. I hope they're all tithing to Tyreek. Matt Nagy, Eric Bieniemy, and Mike McDaniel are jokes. You notice how most Andy Reid, Kyle Shanahan, and Bill Belichick assistants never went on to real dominating success as coaches? Doug Pederson is about the closest thing I can think of. I guess Klint Kubiak did work for Kyle Shanahan for a year, but I'm not sure that was one of his guys. Great head coaches don't tend to spawn the next wave of great NFL head coaches from their assistant crew.
Where was I?
Oh yeah, I am getting burned by Charger things all over the place this season, and I'm trying to do emergency rehab project to cleanse myself of them. It happens. There's always one team I think is gonna be the cat's meow and then they suck for whatever reason, and then there's also one team I think is going to be dreadful and then they go on and become efficient and great. In this new era, young head coaches can go into the craziest of situations and turn them around in one offseason, while retreads, former failed head coaches, turn coordinators, and special assistants are hard-pressed to ever be impact coaches in the NFL ever again.
Then when you sell out of the Chargers, for example, and go ‘all in’ on the Panthers to use something recent for an example...you could do all that maneuvering for Carolina or Green Bay and then in 3-10 days of injuries you have to emergency evacuate Carolina or Green Bay things. You could have had hopes for the Giants, and assembled things from there, and then Jaxson Dart goes down. You think you have the Chicago Bears figured out and then Caleb Williams goes down.
Stacking is dead.
We're all in survival of the fittest mode.
This is likely to be the most maddening, most maneuvering season of fantasy football in my lifetime.
I guarantee you as each week goes by and this becomes a game of mental stamina, and persistence, and mental anguish--Your league mates are going to be out on an island seeking ESPN’s help, seeking mainstream help, and they're gonna get flustered and start either checking out or making wild moves. We have to hold our fire until we see the whites of their eyes. We have to keep winning via mental fortitude. What's true last week is completely different this week and then next week it's gonna be like a whole new season again. Do not panic if you've lost the last two weeks and lost key players to injury and don't get too high and mighty if you keep winning and avoiding injury for the most part. Winter is coming for everybody in fantasy.
The people that may get to the FF playoffs with a legit chance to win the title are not gonna be the smartest football minds...they will be the most disciplined, most patient, most grinding mental chess players.
== INJURY CENTER/WARD ==
-- Patriots CB Christian Gonzalez (shoulder) did not practice on Wednesday.
-- 49ers WR Mike Evans (ribs) did not practice on Wednesday.
-- Nico Collins (hamstring) returned to practice Wednesday. ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported over the weekend that Collins had a “decent chance” to return in Week 4.
== Unique STAT Center ==
-- Highest catch rate this season among WR (min. 10 targets)
Kalif Raymond 95.0% (19/20)
Chris Godwin 90.9% (10/11)
Jakobi Meyers 90.9% (10/11)
Drake London 88.2% (15/17)
Kendrick Bourne 85.7% (12/14)
-- @ScottFerrall: I keep telling you. 0-3 teams in Week 4 vs a team with a win are 47-25-1 ATS since 2005. 13-3 since 2020. So who are they?
Dolphins +11.5 at MIN
Chargers +7 at SEA
Titans +11.5 at BAL
Bucs +4 vs GB
Texans -2.5 vs DAL
Crazy stat.
-- @DhananiZain: The Colts have allowed a league-high (by a lot) 435 receiving yards to players aligned in the slot so far this season. Let's see if Stefon Diggs can take advantage
-- Highest pass rush win rate among DLs this season
Gervon Dexter Sr 23.3%
Aaron Donald 21.4%
Darius Robinson 20.0%
DJ Reader 19.0%
Jeffery Simmons 18.2%
-- @nickercolano: a stoppable force meets a movable object this week...
GB's passing-block unit: ranked 32nd in the NFL
TB's pass-rush unit: ranked 32nd in the NFL
-- Eagles defense this season (NFL rank):
0 takeaways (last)
8 QB hits (31st)
3 sacks (T-28th)
127.3 rush YPG allowed (25th)
-- The Jaguars have never won a game with a point total set at 49 or higher. 0-24.
-- Eagles average distance needed for a 1st down on 3rd down:
2021: 6.1 (1st)
2022: 6.8 (13th)
2023: 6.9 (13th)
2024: 6.9 (13th)
2025: 7.5 (30th)
2026: 8.2 (29th)
-- ESPN team pass block win rate through Week 3 (an O-Line strength gauge):
1. Bills (62%)
2. Lions (60%)
3. Raiders (59%)
4. Eagles (58%)
5. 49ers (58%)
6. Texans (55%)
7. Browns (54%)
8. Steelers (54%)
9. Giants (53%)
10. Chiefs (53%)
11. Falcons (53%)
12. Colts (51%)
13. Jets (51%)
14. Vikings (51%)
15. Patriots (51%)
16. Bengals (50%)
17. Cowboys (50%)
18. Rams (49%)
19. Bears (49%)
20. Commanders (49%)
21. Broncos (48%)
22. Dolphins (47%)
23. Saints (47%)
24. Buccaneers (47%)
25. Panthers (47%)
26. Titans (46%)
27. Chargers (45%)
28. Seahawks (42%)
29. Ravens (41%)
30. Jaguars (40%)
31. Cardinals (32%)
32. Packers (16%)
RC vs. Ross Coffee bets (through Wk3):
More targets this season...
21 = Raymond (RC)
09 = D. Swift (Ross)
== QUOTES & QUOTABLES ==
-- Packers WR Jayden Reed to undergo season-ending neck surgery
-- Sione Vaki is developing into a relief option for Gibbs after progress in protection, rushing and receiving
Tashard Choice: “For Vaki, my biggest thing was him coming off of injury in the offseason and training camp. I can tell you from week one to week three, he has grown dramatically. And he still got a lot of room to grow because he's still, to me, young at the position. There's a lot of nuances at the position, but the only way you can get better at it is getting reps. And so picking up protections last week, his runs finishing physical, finishing forward, and then also catching checkdowns, getting vertical too—those are the little things that you could see that he's growing with. There's gonna be a time where I'm gonna say, ‘Jah, sit down,’ and Vaki's gotta roll, because there's gonna be certain points in the game where he can actually help us and do certain things that you may wanna give Jah a rest. The opportunity to get this chance, we didn't see happening so early. He's getting opportunity. Now he gotta go take it.”
Your moment of Zen for this day...
-- Ollie time! https://x.com/Underdog/status/2105112108396392922
-- Some may agree: https://x.com/RealFletch17/status/2105236867738374512?s=20
*SPORTS CARD Giveaway:
Five cards to give away
The five people being entered into the lottery...
#1: Bma..... @gmail (from the video show end group from a couple weeks ago)
#2: Ch.... @msn = Random from the OG group of longest-term FFM subscribers
#3: Oli... @yahoo = Random from the 2026 new subscriber list, any category/item.
#4: Mit... @go...com = Random from ‘Betting’ subscribers/Private Club
#5: Ser.... @gmail = Random from all sources of subscribers
Going to have a FF mini-contest Week 4 to determine picking order. My Week 3 schedule got blown up to do this Week 3.
----------------------------------------------------------
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=====================
9/30 WED (amET)
Today:
-- Week 3 Projections update
-- Week 3 Game Reports
-- Two Scouts Talking YouTube Video (breaks for the weekend + Monday, back at it on Tu-W-Thu-Fri this week). Shooting 4-5 videos today for release throughout this week.
This past week:
Ollie v. Braelon: https://youtu.be/9tsBBLYSIB8
Jonah Coleman: https://youtu.be/1PgxRk1Sqdc
Oronde Gadsden: https://youtu.be/zpqx5v_M-dQ
Kalif Raymond: https://youtu.be/fQsruq7zvaI
Rookie WRs Week 1: https://youtu.be/bDbYorHydQc
Devaughn Vele: https://youtu.be/1aHFMgfQI14
Kaleon Black: https://youtu.be/LphU-KrbqMs
Drake Maye: https://youtu.be/MnrK3foEQNQ
-- New Rookie Card giveaway...the lottery for the five rookie cards revealed below. There’s gonna be a contest between the 5 finalists for the pick order in Week 4.
--------------------------
NEW DISCORD NOTIFICATION SYSTEM/INVITE: FFM Discord Notification System
*This is not a chat room. It is a one-way channel for FFM notifications about newly posted items and critical breaking news.
== NEWS & NOTES & Xs ==
-- Free Agent night analysis:
Top 5 Adds by Position (Week 4 Waiver Wire)
Quarterbacks
1 = Kirk Cousins, Raiders (+24% Net Add Rate)
2 = Geno Smith, Jets (+18% Net Add Rate)
3 = Marcus Mariota, Commanders (+15% Net Add Rate)
4 = Daniel Jones, Colts (+12% Net Add Rate)
5 = Case Keenum, Bears (+8% Net Add Rate)
Running Backs
1 = Braelon Allen, Jets (+46% Net Add Rate)
2 = Ollie Gordon II, Dolphins (+39% Net Add Rate)
3 = Jaylen Wright, Dolphins (+31% Net Add Rate)
4 = Keaton Mitchell, Chargers (+22% Net Add Rate)
5 = Mike Washington Jr., Raiders (+19% Net Add Rate)
Wide Receivers
1 = Kalif Raymond, Bears (+41% Net Add Rate)
2 = Mack Hollins, Patriots (+35% Net Add Rate)
3 = Keenan Allen, Colts (+26% Net Add Rate)
4 = Dontayvion Wicks, Eagles (+22% Net Add Rate)
5 = Malik Washington, Dolphins (+17% Net Add Rate)
Tight Ends
1 = Juwan Johnson, Saints (+38% Net Add Rate)
2 = Kenyon Sadiq, Jets (+29% Net Add Rate)
3 = Darren Waller, Panthers (+19% Net Add Rate)
4 = Brenton Strange, Jaguars (+14% Net Add Rate)
5 = Tanner Hudson, Bengals (+8% Net Add Rate)
Defense/Special Teams (DST)
1 = Minnesota Vikings (+21% Net Add Rate) - (Home vs. Miami Dolphins)
2 = Buffalo Bills (+17% Net Add Rate) - (Home vs. New England Patriots)
3 = Green Bay Packers (+13% Net Add Rate) - (Home vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
4 = Chicago Bears (+11% Net Add Rate) - (Home vs. New York Jets)
5 = Cleveland Browns (+9% Net Add Rate) - (Home vs. Pittsburgh Steelers)
Placekickers (PK)
1 = Spencer Shrader, Colts (+15% Net Add Rate)
2 = Will Reichard, Vikings (+13% Net Add Rate)
3 = Jason Sanders, Jets (+10% Net Add Rate)
4 = Chris Boswell, Steelers (+8% Net Add Rate)
5 = Chase McLaughlin, Buccaneers (+6% Net Add Rate)
Top 20 by FAAB % Spend (Week 4 Waivers)
1 = Braelon Allen, Jets (18% Avg FAAB Spend)
2 = Ollie Gordon II, Dolphins (15% Avg FAAB Spend)
3 = Juwan Johnson, Saints (13% Avg FAAB Spend)
4 = Jaylen Wright, Dolphins (11% Avg FAAB Spend)
5 = Kalif Raymond, Bears (10% Avg FAAB Spend)
6 = Mack Hollins, Patriots (9% Avg FAAB Spend)
7 = Kenyon Sadiq, Jets (8% Avg FAAB Spend)
8 = Keaton Mitchell, Chargers (7% Avg FAAB Spend)
9 = Kirk Cousins, Raiders (7% Avg FAAB Spend)
10 = Mike Washington Jr., Raiders (6% Avg FAAB Spend)
11 = Keenan Allen, Colts (6% Avg FAAB Spend)
12 = Dontayvion Wicks, Eagles (5% Avg FAAB Spend)
13 = Geno Smith, Jets (5% Avg FAAB Spend)
14 = Darren Waller, Panthers (4% Avg FAAB Spend)
15 = Marcus Mariota, Commanders (4% Avg FAAB Spend)
16 = Malik Washington, Dolphins (4% Avg FAAB Spend)
17 = Brenton Strange, Jaguars (3% Avg FAAB Spend)
18 = Minnesota Vikings DST (3% Avg FAAB Spend)
19 = Daniel Jones, Colts (2% Avg FAAB Spend)
20 = Buffalo Bills DST (2% Avg FAAB Spend)
Top 3 Most Dropped by Position (Week 4 Waivers)
Running Backs
1 = De'Von Achane, Dolphins
The single most dropped player across all fantasy platforms. Achane suffered a confirmed season-ending torn ACL in the first quarter of Sunday's loss against Kansas City. In leagues without designated IR stashes, managers cut him loose immediately to clear roster spots for replacements like Ollie Gordon II and Braelon Allen.
2 = MarShawn Lloyd, Packers
The Packers' backfield has devolved into an unproductive three-headed committee alongside Kaleb Johnson and Chris Brooks. After seeing 13 carries in Week 1, Lloyd was squeezed down to just four carries in Week 3, averaging under 3.5 yards per carry on the season and losing high-leverage passing snaps.
3 = Chris Rodriguez Jr., Jaguars
Rodriguez completely lost the lead rushing role in Jacksonville to rookie Bhayshul Tuten and ran a route on just 9% of pass plays in Week 3. With LeQuint Allen Jr. commanding third-down passing snaps, Rodriguez offers virtually zero standalone or ceiling value.
Wide Receivers
1 = Brian Thomas Jr., Jaguars
After generating offseason buzz, Thomas has stalled in Liam Coen's passing progression. Parker Washington has dominated the target share as the clear WR1, with Jakobi Meyers stepping into primary perimeter snaps. Thomas has been relegated to running roughly 17 routes per game as a decoy clear-out, causing managers in 10- and 12-team leagues to sever ties.
2 = Quentin Johnston, Chargers
Johnston continues to struggle in Mike McDaniel's offense. Despite maintaining nominal route participation, he has hauled in only six passes for 64 yards through three weeks and has been completely out-targeted and out-produced by Tre' Harris.
3 = Marvin Harrison Jr., Cardinals
While shallow formats are driving the cuts, Harrison has been an early-season sinkhole. Despite Jacoby Brissett completing 82 passes for Arizona through three weeks, Harrison has managed just four receptions on nine total targets for 73 yards, prompting frustrated managers to chase hotter waiver targets like Kalif Raymond and Mack Hollins.
Quarterbacks
1 = Justin Herbert, Chargers
The Chargers' offense has looked broken through three weeks under new coordinator Mike McDaniel. Herbert has failed to score more than 14.5 fantasy points in a single game, has a 3:4 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and faces brutal upcoming secondary matchups against Seattle and Denver.
2 = Daniel Jones, Colts
Rostered primarily as an early-season streaming option, Jones has generated virtually no rushing floor and lacks passing volume in Indianapolis' scheme. Managers holding him as a QB2 dumped him in bulk overnight for streamers with higher weekly ceilings like Kirk Cousins and Geno Smith.
3 = Drake Maye, Patriots
Maye has tallied only 21.6 total fantasy points across three starts, failing the eye test with six interceptions already on the year. With New England heavily leaning on ground work and short-area targets, managers abandoned Maye ahead of a tough road test in Buffalo.
Tight Ends
1 = Terrance Ferguson, Rams
Ferguson picked up an ankle injury in Week 3 and saw his playing time evaporate as Tyler Higbee took command of primary tight end routes. With the Rams' passing game heavily funneling through wideouts, Ferguson was cut loose across the board.
2 = Kyle Pitts, Falcons
Despite running routes on roughly 76% of dropbacks, Pitts continues to live as a distant tertiary read behind Drake London and Bijan Robinson, recording just one catch for 5 yards on two targets in Week 3. Fantasy managers have officially run out of patience.
3 = Hunter Henry, Patriots
Henry has been completely squeezed out of volume in New England's conservative passing attack, losing targets to perimeter wideouts like Mack Hollins and failing to see high-leverage looks inside the red zone.
Defense/Special Teams (DST)
(Drops heavily dictated by managers ditching Week 3 streaming plays)
1 = Carolina Panthers
The Panthers were one of the most added streaming defenses for their Week 3 matchup against Cleveland, but with a matchup against Detroit on deck, they were dropped across virtually all shallow and standard leagues.
2 = Miami Dolphins
After giving up big plays to Kansas City and losing their defensive coordinator's game script leverage, managers cut Miami ahead of a road trip against Minnesota.
3 = Green Bay Packers
Carried into Week 3 as a top streaming option against Atlanta, managers churned Green Bay off rosters in favor of Buffalo (hosting New England) and Minnesota (hosting Miami).
-- KEY INJURIES: Titans placed G Fernando Carmona (ankle) on injured reserve.
He’ll miss at least the next four weeks. The Titans also placed Jackson Slater, the second-stringer at guard, on injured reserve with a foot injury.
The Titans O-Line is going from bad to worse...
Not good for Pollard/Spears/Singleton, etc.
-- KEY INJURIES: NFL Network’s Mike Garafolo reports Panthers G Damien Lewis (elbow) will be out “a few weeks.” Panthers G Damien Lewis will be sidelined a few weeks with a UCL injury in his elbow, sources tell me and @RapSheet. Medical evaluations are still ongoing but Carolina’s best lineman is set to miss the game against the #Lions. A bye in Week 5 so maybe only one game missed.
On SNF this week the Panthers will start their:
-Back up LT
-Back up RT
-Back up LG
-Potentially back up WR2 and WR3
-Back up CB1
-Potentially back up CB2
-Already a whole bunch of back up DL
-Potentially back up FS
== INJURY CENTER/WARD ==
-- The Denver Post’s Sam Jane reports Broncos WR Jaylen Waddle is “fine” after he was spotted in a walking boot following the Broncos’ Week 3 win over the Rams.
-- ESPN’s Brooke Pryor reports Steelers CB Jalen Ramsey has a broken wrist.
-- Commanders ruled out G Sam Cosmi (concussion/throat) for Week 4 against the Colts.
-- Raiders placed WR Jack Bech (forearm) on injured reserve.
-- ESPN’s Adam Schefter said it “sounds like” Jayden Daniels (elbow) is going to need surgery after the season and he’s put it off so he can play with his team now.
== Unique STAT Center ==
-- @Ihartitz: Atlanta Falcons...
Offense: 24.4% pressure rate allowed (lowest, 1st!)
Defense: 44.2% pressure rate (highest, 1st!)
-- Playoff Chances: https://x.com/PFF/status/2104999786311213310?s=20
-- 2024 WR Draft: https://x.com/lankmcqueef69/status/2104959567562178570?s=20
-- Some numbers on the Chargers O Line:
LT Rashawn Slater's 76% Pass Block Win Rate ranks 57th out of 66 qualified tackles in the NFL this season and is by far his lowest in a season through 3 games in his career (next closest is 82% through 3 games in 2023)
RT Joe Alt leads the NFL in penalties.
In Sunday's loss the offensive line finished with a 34.8% pass block win rate, its fourth-lowest PBWR in any game in Herbert's career.
RC Note: So magically, all at once, out of nowhere all the linemen are now bad?
-- Adam Gase Offenses - Points Scored per Drive:
2017 Dolphins: 5th-worst
2018 Dolphins: 6th-worst
2019 Jets: worst
2020 Jets: worst
2021-2025: unemployed
2026 Chargers: 3rd-worst
RC vs. Ross Coffee bets (through Wk3):
More targets this season...
21 = Raymond (RC)
09 = D. Swift (Ross)
== QUOTES & QUOTABLES ==
-- The Lions have allowed five TE1 performances through three weeks. Next up...Darren Waller!
-- Jaguars coach Liam Coen said Brian Thomas Jr. played only 23 snaps in Week 3 because the Jaguars “were playing in a little bit more 12 and also some of the things that we had Josh [Cameron] on specifically were things that we felt good about him doing within a role that he has.”
-- Ben Johnson: “We’ll have a discussion as a coaching staff and we’ll see where we need to go from here ... But I said it last week, and I’ll say it again, there was a reason why Tyson [Bagent] ended training camp as our No. 2 quarterback”
-- Titans coach Robert Saleh said “no” when asked if he’d consider sitting QB Cam Ward.
-- Vikings signed RB Devin Neal.
-- Texans signed RB Dare Ogunbowale off the Raiders’ practice squad.
-- Giants released Odell Beckham, Jr.
Your moment of Zen for this day...
-- The NFC North: https://x.com/angrymike23/status/2104773212865536254?s=20
-- This freaking MEME of a real event from a few weeks ago is the best of 2026, and every take they do makes me laugh my arse off: https://x.com/jack_bfr/status/2104939771890122795?s=20
-- Week 3 Summary: https://x.com/MLFootball/status/2105117490686660926?s=20
*SPORTS CARD Giveaway:
Five cards to give away
The five people being entered into the lottery...
#1: Bma..... @gmail (from the video show end group from a couple weeks ago)
#2: Ch.... @msn = Random from the OG group of longest-term FFM subscribers
#3: Oli... @yahoo = Random from the 2026 new subscriber list, any category/item.
#4: Mit... @go...com = Random from ‘Betting’ subscribers/Private Club
#5: Ser.... @gmail = Random from all sources of subscribers
Going to have a FF mini-contest Week 4 to determine picking order. My Week 3 schedule got blown up to do this Week 3.
----------------------------------------------------------
*How to sign up for our monthly or annual access: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/total-football-advisor
*Draft Guide season access $24.99: https://ffmetrics.com/draft-guide/draft-guide
*How to get the free FFM App and FAQs on how to use: https://ffmetrics.com/5663-how-to-get-the-free-ffm-app
*Our Betting Subscription offering (including private Discord chat access): https://ffmetrics.com/betting/betting
=====================
9/29 TUE (6:30amET)
Today:
-- Week 3 Executive Report Parts 2 of 2...doing ‘Three Things’ Monday, then Adding ‘Five Players’ in pieces Monday night through to completion by Tuesday early evening (before Tuesday Night Waivers’.
-- Week 3 Game Reports.
-- Tuesday Night Waivers Livestream Show 8:30-10pmET.
-- New Rookie Card giveaway...the lottery for the five rookie cards revealed below. There’s gonna be a contest between the 5 finalists for the pick order in Week 4.
-- Two Scouts Talking YouTube Video (breaks for the weekend + Monday, back at it on Tu-W-Thu-Fri this week). Shooting 4-5 videos today for release throughout this week.
This past week:
Jonah Coleman: https://youtu.be/1PgxRk1Sqdc
Oronde Gadsden: https://youtu.be/zpqx5v_M-dQ
Kalif Raymond: https://youtu.be/fQsruq7zvaI
Rookie WRs Week 1: https://youtu.be/bDbYorHydQc
Devaughn Vele: https://youtu.be/1aHFMgfQI14
Kaleon Black (+30 extra random minutes of talk): https://youtu.be/LphU-KrbqMs
Drake Maye: https://youtu.be/MnrK3foEQNQ
--------------------------
NEW DISCORD NOTIFICATION SYSTEM/INVITE: FFM Discord Notification System
*This is not a chat room. It is a one-way channel for FFM notifications about newly posted items and critical breaking news.
== NEWS & NOTES & Xs ==
MNF First Reactions...
-- My main two reactions:
1) I have been saying that the Philadelphia Eagles do not look very good at all this season, after their first game and then after their second game (the second game being where they should have lost to the worst team in the league/the Tennessee Titans)... And then they lose to Case Keenum on MNF. The Washington Commanders are going to win this division (my current prediction after watching the first three weeks of the season).
2) This ginned up my thoughts for the past two years... Wondering if Ben Johnson would really rather have a Jared Goff type QB versus Caleb Williams type to run his system AKA the best system and offensive mind in all football.
-- Colston Loveland isn't gonna be in the ‘Big Three’ tight end group, which is gonna be my worst call up the first 5 rounds of the redraft 2026.
-- Kalif Raymond isn't looking so crazy after all now is he?
Currently number six in the NFL in receptions.
Currently the #13 WR in PPR scoring per game...just behind Parker Washington and Devonta Smith and just ahead of Justin Jefferson and Tee Higgins.
-- @SharpFootball: Bears QBs since 2024 to have a game with:
Multiple TD passes
Zero interceptions
Zero sacks
70%+ completions
On at least 30 attempts:
1 - Case Keenum (in 1 start)
0 - Caleb Williams (in 36 starts)
As much as I’d love to see Tyson Bagent getting a chance to show himself...the Bears probably have to stick with Case Keenum or fans will turn on Bagent like he’s JJ McCarthy if he doesn’t shine in that start.
-- TRADE: Giants acquired QB J.J. McCarthy from the Vikings in exchange for a 2027 fifth-round pick.
Several random thoughts...
Of course, McCarthy is going to a Harbaugh. The Harbaugh’s have an odd factoid together in 2026...they both have assembled the worst coaching staffs for offense in the NFL; and they are gonna pay for it--more so their fans are gonna pay for it. No doubt QB coach Brian Callahan and offensive coordinator Matt Nagy will fix but Kevin O'Connell couldn't.
I think this is a low-key attempt by Harbaugh to replace Jaxson Dart in the big picture. He would never say that publicly, but the Harbaugh’s share the same brain...and that brain lead brother Jim to proclaim McCarthy as the best prospect in his NFL Draft, and he wasn't being hyperbolic. Also, if you are coached by a Harbaugh and played for Michigan you get a 2x booster in scouting and get any tiebreakers between the Wolverine and any other player to make a roster, or to start, or to get a touch. Old school NFL coaches want a QB that is ‘theirs’...to be their puppy that adores the owner--that’s not Dart nor Winston for Harbaugh.
Being traded for a fifth-round draft pick is such a slap in the face to McCarthy, but it's also very kind of O'Connell to send the kid where he's wanted and where there's an immediate opportunity. Also, the Vikings and the Giants might be fighting for wild card spots in the end, so this is a way for O'Connell to “take out the competition”.
At the first sign of trouble, after he's been with the team for a couple of weeks, Harbaugh will replace Winston with McCarthy. And the second he does that, he's gonna lose the remaining small percentage grip he has over the team. The Giants locker room loves Dart and Winston, and dislikes in a neutral sense all of their own coaching staff...but if/when this move is made against the very popular Winston, Harbaugh will lose the locker room and the team. The only thing that can save the Giants season now and into the future is if Winston goes on a ‘heater’ and has the Giants fighting for a division title deep into the season.
-- HEADLINE: Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh said he doesn’t plan to intervene in the offense if it continues to struggle.
Speaking of idiotic Harbaugh moves...
Jim Harbaugh deserves everything that's coming to him now and a few weeks from now when they still haven't won a game because he caused this (the offensive collapse). McDaniel has ruined Jim’s team. All summer, Harbaugh breathed in and laughed at Mike McDaniel’s farts and didn't reel him in or smack him in the face and tell him to shut up when MM was boasting about all the things LAC was gonna do. Instead, Harbaugh was enamored with all the life lessons he was learning from the bullshit artist Mike McDaniel. So, there's no way Harbaugh will ever admit a mistake and turn on the brilliant McDaniel.
I expect Harbaugh to stay in support of McDaniel right now because a change after three weeks would be so indicting of Harbaugh. Let’s see if they fall to (0-6) how much he doesn't want to intervene...
McDaniel has no ties to Michigan, so this love affair is likely fleeting.
Harbaugh coming out in the media yesterday saying out loud that Justin Herbert needs to be better...pointing him out by name but not saying the same about Mike McDaniel specifically, likely just lost him the locker room and the team just like his brother is trying to do, or has already has done but the Giants haven't hit the skids yet for it all to bubble up to the surface.
-- HEADLINE: Texans coach DeMeco Ryans said “nope, we’re all in this together” when asked about possibly replacing OC Nick Caley.
Speaking of idiotic coaches that want to go down with the ship with their terrible coordinator choices...
This offense is once again a lost cause. Ryans will not change coordinators or quarterbacks, and he has enough gravitas with GM or owner will not push in. Ryans is gonna author his own demise and no one's gonna get in his way to stop him, and it will take another season or so before the Texans intervene.
== INJURY CENTER/WARD ==
-- Rams HC Sean McVay said TE Terrance Ferguson (ankle) will likely miss Week 4 against the Eagles.
-- Rams HC Sean McVay said he was “hopeful” WR Puka Nacua (groin) will be able to play in Week 4 against the Eagles.
-- Browns G Teven Jenkins (back) and C Elgton Jenkins (concussion) were listed as “DNP” on Monday’s estimated practice report.
-- Giants head coach John Harbaugh confirmed on Monday that Brian Burns suffered a torn ACL in Week 3’s win over the Titans.
-- NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reports Justin Jefferson’s ankle injury is not “anything long-term” and that he could play in Week 4 against the Dolphins.
-- Ravens head coach Jesse Minter said C Ethan Pocic is looking at a long-term absence with the knee injury he suffered in Week 3 against the Cowboys.
-- Saints coach Kellen Moore said Travis Etienne Jr. (hamstring) “will miss time” and that a timeline for his return has not yet been determined.
-- NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reports Breece Hall is considered week-to-week with a quad injury.
-- De’Von Achane suffered a torn ACL in the Dolphins’ Week 3 loss to the Chiefs, ending his season.
-- Buccaneers placed WR Jalen McMillan (knee) on injured reserve.
== Unique STAT Center ==
-- via Jaguars PR: Jacksonville has gone 20 straight games not allowing a 75-yard rusher, tied for the fourth-longest streak in the last 50 years
-- Week 3: The Rams were called for five penalties in the final two minutes of the fourth quarter, which is tied for the most by any team in a game since 2000, according to ESPN Research.
-- Drake Maye is the first player with 9+ fumbles and 10+ INT across a 7-game span since Jameis Winston in 2019 (during the famed 30-TD 30-INT season)
-- The last four Super Bowl champions ALL started the season 2-1: https://x.com/dksports/status/2104775254979797047?s=43
-- All 32 teams ranked by their opponents’ combined record EXCLUDING games against them, through Monday night:
1) Dolphins: 6-0
2) Broncos: 5-1
2) Rams: 5-1
2) Saints: 5-1
2) Bears: 5-1
6) Lions: 4-2
6) Jaguars: 4-2
6) Chargers: 4-2
6) Patriots: 4-2
6) Buccaneers: 4-2
11) Commanders: 3-2
12) Cardinals: 3-3
12) Cowboys: 3-3
12) Packers: 3-3
12) Texans: 3-3
12) Colts: 3-3
12) Chiefs: 3-3
12) Steelers: 3-3
19) Panthers: 2-3
19) Vikings: 2-3
19) Titans: 2-3
22) Falcons: 2-4
22) Ravens: 2-4
22) Bills: 2-4
22) Browns: 2-4
22) 49ers: 2-4
22) Seahawks: 2-4
22) Eagles: 2-4
29) Bengals: 1-5
29) Raiders: 1-5
29) Giants: 1-5
29) Jets: 1-5
RC vs. Ross Coffee bets (through Wk3):
More targets this season...
21 = Raymond (RC)
09 = D. Swift (Ross)
== QUOTES & QUOTABLES ==
-- Dave Canales wants to move McMillan around and improve his opportunities after the Browns game.
Dave Canales: “As a staff, we gotta take responsibility for putting T Mac in great situations and not putting him out there where Denzel could just play him outside as much, and make sure we move him around appropriately, as much as it fits in with the plan. So Brad and I, we can all take some accountability on that side of it. And just the targets, too. Some of those opportunities are man to man. And when it is man to man, there's still an opportunity for contested. Bryce can find his opportunities to get him the ball as well. So it's all of us collectively.”
-- Free agent WR Tyreek Hill posted to his account on X that it’s “almost time to get off the couch and get to work.”
Your moment of Zen for this day...
-- JJM has arrived! https://x.com/Ihartitz/status/2104606001672679571?s=20
-- The Raiders have arrived: https://x.com/NFLMemes/status/2104581614567043244?s=20
*SPORTS CARD Giveaway:
Five cards to give away
The five people being entered into the lottery...
#1: Bma..... @gmail (from the video show end group from a couple weeks ago)
#2: Ch.... @msn = Random from the OG group of longest-term FFM subscribers
#3: Oli... @yahoo = Random from the 2026 new subscriber list, any category/item.
#4: Mit... @go...com = Random from ‘Betting’ subscribers/Private Club
#5: Ser.... @gmail = Random from all sources of subscribers
Going to have a FF mini-contest Week 4 to determine picking order. My Week 3 schedule got blown up to do this Week 3.
----------------------------------------------------------
*How to sign up for our monthly or annual access: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/total-football-advisor
*Draft Guide season access $24.99: https://ffmetrics.com/draft-guide/draft-guide
*How to get the free FFM App and FAQs on how to use: https://ffmetrics.com/5663-how-to-get-the-free-ffm-app
*Our Betting Subscription offering (including private Discord chat access): https://ffmetrics.com/betting/betting
=====================
9/28 MON (amET)
Today:
-- Week 3 Executive Report Part 1 of 2...doing ‘Three Things’ Monday, then Adding ‘Five Players’ in pieces Monday night through to completion by Tuesday early evening (before Tuesday Night Waivers’.
-- Week 3 Game Reports begin.
-- New Rookie Card giveaway...the lottery for the five rookie cards revealed below. There’s gonna be a contest between the 5 finalists for the pick order in Week 4.
-- Two Scouts Talking YouTube Video (breaks for the weekend + Monday, back at it on Tu-W-Thu-Fri this week)
This past week:
Jonah Coleman: https://youtu.be/1PgxRk1Sqdc
Oronde Gadsden: https://youtu.be/zpqx5v_M-dQ
Kalif Raymond: https://youtu.be/fQsruq7zvaI
Rookie WRs Week 1: https://youtu.be/bDbYorHydQc
Devaughn Vele: https://youtu.be/1aHFMgfQI14
Kaleon Black (+30 extra random minutes of talk): https://youtu.be/LphU-KrbqMs
Drake Maye: https://youtu.be/MnrK3foEQNQ
-- Miscellaneous reports on things that come my way and more scouting reports to come. I have a backlog of them to get published already.
--------------------------
NEW DISCORD NOTIFICATION SYSTEM/INVITE: FFM Discord Notification System
*This is not a chat room. It is a one-way channel for FFM notifications about newly posted items and critical breaking news.
== NEWS & NOTES & Xs ==
-- HEADLINE: Bears QB Tyson Bagent has cleared the NFL’s concussion protocol. Bagent has no game status designation for Monday night against the Eagles.
I am so looking forward to MNF now. This changes everything about this game...as we get a glimpse of the Bears offense with a backup QB, a legit (maybe) backup QB.
Teams that will now be operating with the starting QB out for multiple weeks/months...
CHI
TB
NYG
We’re averaging losing one per week, so far.
Honestly, there are so many injuries right now...there’s so much injury research that we need to go through all week...I don’t know which end is up.
It’s not just ‘this big name got hurt, what now?’ We got plenty of those, but we also now have entire team cores, essentially, wiping out--forcing a complete re-scouting of a team’s situation. Example: You know about the SF 49ers’ woes and the substitutions and all that...they got devastated by injury again Sunday. But did you know the Carolina Panthers are falling apart at the seams as well? They lost both their ace starting corners Sunday, in-game. Unsure of the severity. It was a strength of the team...then it was their weakness in real-time.
Here’s the injury list from Carolina from Sunday Week 2 to Sunday Week 3...
Devin Lloyd
Damien Lewis
Jalen Coker
Jaycee Horn
Mike Jackson
Nick Scott
Bryce Young
Jonathon Brooks
Bobby Brown
Claudin Cherelus
Xavier Legette
Both starting corners, a key starting guard off a team already missing its starting tackles before the season kicked off for Carolina. They lost their big free-agent signing linebacker. They lost their key DT/NT. Bryce Young played hurt for half of the Week 3 game. Jalen Coker is not 100%. The Panthers have gone from a top 10 team to bottom 10 team in the span of one week...not due to ‘injuries’...due to MASS injuries.
We are entering a new era of Fantasy. It started last year in earnest. We used to have to interpret the impact of 1-2-3-4-5 key ‘name’ players hurt. Now, honest to God, we have to re-scout the entire NFL every week. There’s not enough time...there’s never enough time...now there’s even less time.
The NFL doesn’t stop its schedule so we can re-scout its entire league’s 32 rosters and the injury impacts. Tuesday night is most people’s waivers. Thursday night football waits for no one. Sunday will be here before you know it. Injury news on Monday is different than Tuesday, which is different than Wednesday...and so on. It’s a constant box of marbles dumped onto a hockey rink.
We could give you ‘buy low’ and ‘sell high’ advice each early week, and it could be brilliant--but then the whole thing blows up the following week when the player you acquired, or the player’s QB or left tackle gets hurt. The entire 49ers offense changes if Trent Williams is really down/out.
We have always considered the injuries and the subsequent personnel chaos ‘good’ for FFM business. We have consistently been ahead of the curve on player scouting and deep scouting and injury adjustments. Now, just 3 weeks in...whole teams are getting wiped out. The injury issues are coming at us out of a firehose. And if you think this week was bad, worse than Week 2...what do we think is going to happen next week?
I’m not dismayed by this...I’m just kinda stunned right now and trying to figure out how to adjust. I used to spend most of my time in a week breaking down game tape and trying to get a ‘feel’ for things. Now, in a few cases, last week’s game tape for some teams should be erased from my memory banks because for that particular team...that team doesn’t exist anymore. The 49ers and the Panthers and the Buccaneers and the Packers (as a few examples)--they don’t exist the way we knew them in Week 1. Next week at this time, more teams will likely join that list.
It’s getting to be we are spending as much time with injury reports and injury questions as we are game tape itself, to try to ‘see into the future’. I’m constantly thinking about what we need to do/change/add to accommodate for all these injuries.
All I can say about what this week, and the rest of this season is gonna be like with the injuries... https://youtu.be/KSdmONyPhkc?si=kftMizpXCJcoU9zX
== INJURY CENTER/WARD ==
-- QB Baker Mayfield dislocated his right thumb, per coach Todd Bowles. MRI tomorrow. But likely to miss time.
-- Breece Hall
Concern for: Grade 2 quad strain
Projection: 3-6 weeks missed
Likely gets MRI
-- Josh Allen: https://x.com/DrJesseMorse/status/2104357849853837379?s=20
-- ESPN’s Adam Schefter reports surgery is “not entirely off the table” for Puka Nacua (hip).
Schefter noted that the team doesn’t believe he will need surgery, but it could be an option if things don’t improve. The team is listing it as a hip injury, but the main issue has been a groin injury which would presumably require core muscle surgery. That would sideline him for multiple months. Schefter added that Nacua could return as soon as Week 4 if he does improve.
-- Week 3 injuries (so far):
De’Von Achane - R knee, ACL?
Justin Jefferson - L medial/high ankle
Mike Evans - rib cartilage/fracture
Breece Hall - R thigh, strain?
Jalen Coker - quad, strain?
Travis Etienne - hamstring
Mark Andrews - hand, returned
Garrett Wilson - evaluated concussion, ok
Jalen McMillan - knee (reinjury?)
Tyjae Spears - ankle (reinjury?
Marcus Mariota - left briefly but returned
Kenyon Sadiq - left briefly but returned
Mike Gesicki - left briefly but returned
Rachaad White - shoulder, returned
Bryce Young - left briefly returned
Ollie Gordon - cramps, returned
== Unique STAT Center ==
-- It has now been 1,442 days since the Cleveland Browns allowed a 300-yard passer.
That’s 48 straight games
-- Troy Fautanu & Max Iheanachor were tagged with only 3 combined pressures allowed on 35 drop backs today versus the Bengals, via Sumer Sports initial charting.
Cincy came into this game ranked 8th in pressure rate.
-- Joe Burrow is now (1-34) when trailing in the last 8:00 in the NFL.
-- The Bucs make history losing 12 in a row against the spread going back to last season... Bucs franchise now owns longest SU and ATS losing streaks in the Super Bowl era.
-- Jaguars Snaps at WR:
50- Parker Washington
50- Jakobi Meyers
23- Josh Cameron
23- Brian Thomas Jr
5- Travis Hunter
RC vs. Ross Coffee bets (through Wk2):
More targets this season...
14 = Raymond (RC)
06 = D. Swift (Ross)
== QUOTES & QUOTABLES ==
-- Liam Coen raved about Josh Cameron in his postgame press conference.
“He’s the personal protector on punt, he catches a touchdown in the end zone on a critical down, then he runs down on kickoff and gets the tackle, then he gets a kickoff return out past the 50 on an explosive.”
“Everything that he does, he does like a pro. He understands how to prepare, he’s super smart, and he’s selfless. And really so many ways what we’re looking for in a Jacksonville Jaguar.”
-- Here's Texans QB C.J. Stroud with a not-so-subtle comment about the conservative play calling from his OC (Nick Caley):
"We can't just play conservative. We gotta be aggressive and attack and not be 'the attacked'."
-- Hafley says De’Von Achane's injury outlook does not sound optimistic, with details still pending.
Jeff Hafley: “Yeah, still gathering information, and hopefully I'll have more for you tomorrow. To be very honest with you, it does not sound very optimistic at this moment, but I can't give you any other details until I have them.”
-- Pretty accurate: https://x.com/FantasyPros/status/2104266430829187195
-- AJ Brown: https://x.com/NFLMemes/status/2104320946471362592
Your moment of Zen for this day...
-- They’re coming for Drake Maye this week: https://x.com/FantasyPros/status/2104277210194661666?s=20
-- I told you: https://x.com/stoolgambling/status/2104262476066128341
-- It won’t end: https://x.com/MBFantasyLife/status/2104291277076365757?s=20
-- Endless: https://x.com/NFLMemes/status/2104263225076551950?s=20
-- Kyle Williams: https://x.com/Ihartitz/status/2104293537692975128
-- Mike McDaniel Ladies & Gentlemen: https://x.com/Ihartitz/status/2104276849933324768?s=20
-- Parker Washington rules: https://x.com/Ihartitz/status/2104288926454161800
-- ‘My’ Astros won their division on the final day of the season, Sunday: https://x.com/TheAstrosLocker/status/2104324668614234347?s=20
*SPORTS CARD Giveaway:
Five cards to give away
The five people being entered into the lottery...
#1: Bma..... @gmail (from the video show end group from a couple weeks ago)
#2: Ch.... @msn = Random from the OG group of longest-term FFM subscribers
#3: Oli... @yahoo = Random from the 2026 new subscriber list, any category/item.
#4: Mit... @go...com = Random from ‘Betting’ subscribers/Private Club
#5: Ser.... @gmail = Random from all sources of subscribers
Going to have a FF mini-contest Week 4 to determine picking order. My Week 3 schedule got blown up to do this Week 3.
----------------------------------------------------------
*How to sign up for our monthly or annual access: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/total-football-advisor
*Draft Guide season access $24.99: https://ffmetrics.com/draft-guide/draft-guide
*How to get the free FFM App and FAQs on how to use: https://ffmetrics.com/5663-how-to-get-the-free-ffm-app
*Our Betting Subscription offering (including private Discord chat access): https://ffmetrics.com/betting/betting
=====================
