2022 Week 16: Texans 19, Titans 14 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
*Weeks 16-17 game week, the game reports will be shortened a bit on some of them to discussing/quick hitting on just the critical facts from the rewatch studies so we can spend more time on looking at the tape of last week’s games for projections prep and sleeper finds this critical FF playoff week/s.
The Texans have been building towards winning a game for several weeks now. They’d been playing a rough schedule but taking many good teams to the limit but ultimately losing in the end. Houston played a heavily injured Tennessee team in Week 16, one of the worst looking injury reports on players across the board for them in the league right now, and the Texans took advantage.
Houston didn’t dominate this game, but they just hung in there all game (both teams very spotty/sloppy) and took the lead with 2:52 remaining and the Titans had two different shots to try and score to win the game but the drives were ultimately thwarted…so many injuries on the O-Line combined with a still green QB never let the passing game get going…so when they needed to throw heavy late to comeback, they just couldn’t sustain the drives.
Houston wins their second game of the season…and that opens the door for the 3-win Chicago Bears to possibly get to the worst record/#1 draft pick -- but it would be a mild shock if Houston lost the #1 overall pick to Chicago or any of the other current 4-win teams in the end. However, Houston will likely beat Indy Week 17, so there’s three wins very possible, plus their tie would allow a 3-win Chicago team to slide into the #1 overall pick.
Tennessee is in a freefall…losers of five games in a row, and thus they yielded the AFC South lead to Jacksonville. The Titans season comes down to Week 18 at Jacksonville. No matter what happens in Week 17, win or lose for them or Jacksonville…the division comes down to Week 18’s winner.
*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a ‘split’ stat on our definition of a ‘quality start’ (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 for a QB…point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.
A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the mark, and 2 times they did not.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The main thrust of my studies on this game rewatch to observe Malik Willis (14-23 for 99 yards, 0 TDs/2 INTs, 7-43-1) for signs of growth and an FF future.
My notes/take: This was Willis’s best performance to date, but it was still mostly awful/useless/stunted from hopes or dreams of what he could be.
I compare Willis to Justin Fields, in my scouting mind, because I believe Willis can be a better version of what Fields has stumbled into now -- that being the best running QB in the NFL…so good a runner that it is opening up his passing game for production as well. Willis has a stronger arm, better passer instinct, and is a really savvy/elusive runner…from his college scouting, compared to Fields. But whereas Fields has broken out in 2022…Willis is still uncomfortable and green in the NFL.
Now, we have to note that Justin Fields was on the verge of being declared a bust after his rookie season and then a few weeks into this 2022/2nd-season for him -- then a switch flipped, and Fields is now one of the most dangerous players in the game. Quite a radical turn…which makes me wonder if Willis will have the same kinda turn.
However, Mike Vrabel might want a Ryan Tannehill-like QB more than a Willis/runner…and Vrabel might not let Willis have the freedom Fields does right now. We really don’t know if Vrabel even wanted Willis in the first place. Willis could’ve been the GMs choice, not Vrabel’s…and now that GM has been dumped (midseason) to allow Vrabel more personnel power.
Willis has a ton of upside for FF ahead…but also a lot of roadblock potential.
As far as THE NOW…Willis is still uncomfortable back in the pocket. I do see him trying to read and work progressions, but he often had little time to sit in the pocket because half+ their O-Line just went on IR. Willis looks better when they move him around and let him run/scan downfield but it seems like they have too much of a traditional offense for him and he’s uncomfortable with it right now.
Willis did have a helluva TD run in this game…breaking several tackles for a 10+ yard TD run. He ran it like he didn't even know his own strength, he was just slamming into and off tacklers and just kept churning like a great power RB and found the end zone. He’s built like a power RB…like Justin Fields is.
Here’s what his actual TD run looked like: https://youtu.be/A5mYqn5HLc8
It’s still too early to consider confidentiality using Willis for FF in Week 17. He could have his moment Week 17, running wild…but I see no signs of confidence/consistency yet.
-- Because Willis hasn’t developed fully as a pocket passer, and they aren’t seeming to adjust enough for him to be out of the pocket and/or the O-Line is so corrupt that it’s not possible…whatever it is, the passing game is muted/stunted under Willis. And that being the case, you get nothing out of Treylon Burks (0-0-0/2) or Chig Okonkwo (1-10-0/2)…by (poor) pass game execution and/or (weak) passing volume.
Nothing FF valuable in this game from these two receivers, and you can’t have much hope for it Week 17 either.
-- The Texans’ run game is so sad…I don’t know how they’re hanging in games or winning like this game. Royce Freeman (16-32-0, 1-6-0/1) is useless -- he’s averaging 3.1 yards per carry in his two games taking over for Dameon Pierce. In 2021, he averaged 3.0 ypc in his work with Carolina and Houston. He just doesn’t have the juice for the NFL.
Eventually, the Texans turned to Dare Ogunbowale (8-28-0) in this game, but that’s just a similar/sad version of what Freeman does on each carry.
Why Houston continues with these old, uninspiring RBs…I don’t know. Their only fresh alternative is if they promote Gerrid Doaks, a 2nd-year RB they grabbed after Miami released him in 2022. Doaks has some talent-hope that I’d like to see get a chance, but that will probably come in Week 18…if at all…and it’s not that exciting, but more exciting than Freeman-Ogunbowale-Burkhead.
-- Brandin Cooks (4-34-1/9) returned to action, and it took a while (in game) for the connection/numbers to happen, but Cooks ended up with a solid FF effort here. He caught a nice 40+ yard TD earlier in the game, but it got negated for misalignment on the offense pre-snap.
With Nico Collins done for 2022…Cooks is the main hope/connection for Davis Mills it appears. You get WR2+ hopes with Cooks Week 17.
Chris Moore (2-25-0/4) is a distant memory when Cooks is back to the action.
-- IDP notes…
DE Ogbonnia Okoronkwo (5 tackles, 2.0 sacks) has 4.0 sacks in his last 4 games…wit 4.0 TFLs and 5 QB hits along with a PD and a forced fumble. He's been heating up as the Texans’ new DE starter the past 6 games.
What happened to Jonathan Greenard (3 tackles, 1 TFL) this season…after such a promising 2021? Injuries. He’s missed 10 games/played 6 games this season. The 2022 thing to note is -- Greenard has registered at least one TFL in five of his 6 games played this season…6 TFLs in 6 games played. Not bad, but just 1.5 sacks this season so far…a down pace for him compared to his 2021 breakout.
The leader in tackles among all rookies this season…Houston SAF Jalen Pitre (9 tackles, 1 INT). He has not failed or struggled in his rookie campaign. He projects to be one of the top IDP/SAFs for FF in the years to come.
Demico Autry (7 tackles, 1.0 sacks, 2 PDs) was back for Tennessee…and back producing numbers. Autry has 18 QB hits this season, in 11 games played.
Snap Counts of Interest:
30 = Hooper
28 = Chig O
24 = Swaim
61 = C Moore
51 = Cooks
39 = Dorsett
14 = A Rodgers
37 = R Freeman
19 = Ogunbowale
11 = Rex B
