2022 Week 16: Jaguars 19, Jets 3 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
*Weeks 16-17 game week, the game reports will be shortened a bit on some of them to discussing/quick hitting on just the critical facts from the rewatch studies so we can spend more time on looking at the tape of last week’s games for projections prep and sleeper finds this critical FF playoff week/s.
A rainy, miserable TNF game…but it stayed dry enough at first to allow Jacksonville to get an early lead…then the rains came harder, the offenses petered out, and the Jags had a nice cushion to just ride it out for a huge/key win.
The rain really didn’t make a huge difference, per se. The difference of this game was Zach Wilson is a full-scale disaster and it wouldn’t have mattered what the weather conditions were -- the Jets were not going to win this game. Wilson is too far gone, and Robert Saleh kept insisting on throwing Zach out there all season when he had a competent Joe Flacco sitting available. Saleh is up for the anti-Coach of the Year…the coach that did the most harm to his team's ability to win games through his decisions -- and sticking by Zach Wilson is Saleh’s Waterloo. But, alas, Nathaniel Hackett has already won the Anti-COY award going away for 2022.
The Jets lose here to fall to (7-8) and are now fighting for their playoff lives. The Jets’ Week 18 game against Miami is very likely the game to determine which of the two teams will get the final playoff spot. The Jets must win out to have a chance at the playoffs. The Jets must win out and the Patriots must lose a game in their final two to advance the Jets. All very possible given the schedule and Miami’s potential loss of Tua for the rest of the season.
The Jags not only win but take the lead in the AFC South (7-8), shockingly. Jacksonville wins the AFC South if they beat Tennessee Week 18…regardless of what happens to either JAX-TEN Week 17…and the opposite is true -- if the Jags lose to Tennessee Week 18, they lose the division. However, there is a narrow path where Jacksonville can win Week 17, lose Week 18 (and thus lose the division) but stumble into a wild card at (8-9)…but it’s dependent on a lot of things. I mention that to set the table that Jacksonville isn’t necessarily going to roll over in Week 17 getting ready for Week 18.
*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a ‘split’ stat on our definition of a ‘quality start’ (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 for a QB…point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.
A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the mark, and 2 times they did not.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Zach Wilson (9-18 for 92 yards, 0 TD/1 INT) was his usual unaware-self…playing in the rain, he didn’t shorten his game. He was still trying to throw downfield. And even when he tried to throw shorter, he’s so inaccurate that it doesn’t matter. The team’s mood visibly changes with Wilson in at QB. Why Saleh did not start Joe Flacco is a mystery I will never understand in this game/at all this season.
Chris Streveler (10-15 for 90 yards, 4-54-0) came in for relief, and he’s godawful, thus making the Flacco thing even more of a mystery. Streveler belongs in the CFL, at best.
Mike White is back for Week 17, so the Jets have actual hope now to get back/into the playoffs…and with White, all the related projections for Jets WR-TE-RB rise.
-- White back helps the RBs, Zon Knight (6-0-0, 1-15-0/1) specifically. Not only is the offense better in general, but the run game opens up -- AND most (PPR) importantly, the pass game to the RBs opens up.
Knight has started/played in five games this year…three with White, the recent two games with Wilson. His splits with each QB (playing about the same snap counts with each):
15.3 carries, 76.7 rush yards, 3.3 rec. (3.3 targets), 22.7 rec. yards = Knight with White
9.5 carries, 10.5 rush yards, 0.50 rec. (0.50 targets), 7.5 rec. yards = Knight with Wilson
I’m inclined to trust Knight more Week 17 with White, then dwell on his Weeks 15-16 performances with Wilson.
-- With Mike White back, Garrett Wilson (4-30-0/9) should shoot back to WR1/2. Garrett Wilson, among all the Jets receivers, suffered with Zach Wilson.
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-- Trevor Lawrence (20-31 for 229 yards, 0 TD/0 INT, 7-51-1) was held in check by the rain the stingy NYJ pass defense…but he did rush for a TD to salvage his FF week. Lawrence has 5 rushing TDs this season…4th most among all QBs this season. Trevor should be fine enough vs. Houston Week 17, but the Texans have one of the five best pass defenses in the NFL/in FF opposition terms, in our metrics.
-- That NYJ cornerback duo of Gardner-Reed held down opposing WRs again…Christian Kirk (3-22-0/6) and the formerly white-hot Zay Jones (1-14-0/4) got totally taken out. Blame the rain + the NYJ corners/pass defense -- and D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett get them next.
But the excellent NYJ pass defense does not extend to covering the TEs, especially wouldn’t matter facing the suddenly/finally elite Evan Engram (7-113-0/8). Engram is the simplest weapon in football…just get him the ball short/on the move and let him do his thing versus smaller or slower coverage.
Engram’s last four games: 7.8 rec. (10.0 targets), 91.2 yards, 0.75 TDs per game. He should keep the train rolling against Houston Week 17.
-- DST notes…
Is the Jacksonville-DST worth playing Week 17 vs. Houston? With Davis Mills back the past three games, the Texans almost beat Dallas and KC, then did beat Tennessee. With no viable RBs, Houston is somehow moving the ball/scoring points against top NFL teams. Jacksonville’s defense isn’t as good as some of the others Houston has moved the ball/scored points on lately. Jags-DST is a sleeper play, not an obvious play.
What about the Jets-DST at Seattle Week 17? The Jets D has been good lately, but not as great as it was flashing signs of being midseason. The Jets have a top 3-5 NFL defense, but Seattle has had a top 10 offense…the Jets-DST should be OK, but it’s not an optimal matchup.
Snap Counts of Interest:
24 = Knight
23 = M Carter
12 = Ty Johnson
58 = Kirk
57 = Zay J
54 = E Engram
